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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...

The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 10/18/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

ThaiGold (10/18/2000; 23:48:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 39373)
$hifty
Hi $hifty
I've been here and there. Fighting to keep the incessant
wolves from my door. An 80 Lb Doberman is very helpful.

How's Baby Raymond.?.

If/When I can unload alot of near-worthless GoldShares
(can you say N-e-w-m-o-n-t.?.)
I will use the proceeds (?!) to get out of debt again, then
invest (?!) what's left into Physical Silver. (@MK)

I will probably bypass the Gold Trinket stage, even tho'
a Gold Coffee Mug would be useful. In case my more valuable
glass one gets broken.

Cordially,

ThaiGold@OperaMail.Com
============================================


SHIFTY (10/18/2000; 23:32:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 39372)
ThaiGold
confiscation/arts & crafts
ThaiGold how have you been? I have thought about that and wonder if I will need to make myself a nifty gold ash tray, coffee cup, and door stop set. How about a set of book ends?
Or a gold box to keep my silver in. Can they steal that kind of stuff?

I dont know

$hifty

auspec (10/18/2000; 23:18:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 39371)
CLHE-HoF/Peter Asher
Peter,
I think we'll be OK as far as dignified is concerned, as soon as we win this one I'm moving on to the next one.
Here's our merry band to date;
Peter Asher- Original and dignified founding member
Auspec - Rebel without a pause
$hifty - Timely entrance to group
Journeyman - No turning back after this key addition
Goldfan - Signed up under false pretenses
CoBra{too} - Conscripted to this Foreign Lesion
Gandalf the White- Ya gotta be in it to win
Aristotle - Honorary member {don't tell him}
numus aureus-Pretty much sums up the whole concept
Cavan Man - Conscripted
Leigh -Social member

The Bullion Banks had better pray that this group isn't turned loose on them. Looking for more Founders!

Parsifal (10/18/2000; 23:08:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 39370)
Asian markets
http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?u

Taiwan Taiwan Weighted TWII 12:32AM 5081.28 -350.95 -6.46%

Hong Kong Hang Seng HSI 12:30AM 14173.73 -284.79 -1.97%

Australia All Ordinaries AORD 1:00AM 3146.8 -33.6 -1.06%

ThaiGold (10/18/2000; 23:07:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 39369)
Gold: The Poor-Man's Silver
Something to Think About
...
..
.
===============================================
Something's up. Big time.
Can you say "c-o-n-f-i-s-c-a-t-i-o-n" .?.

The many scenarios we read about daily,
here in the Forum, seem to overlook one
important point:

If/When the system crashes, Gold will soar.
Indeed. For a few days. Then the the inevitable
must occur to save the system and thwart us all
once again. Your precious Physical Gold will be
confiscated. Make no mistake about that.

Whether $600/oz; $2000/oz; or (gasp) $30,000/oz.
It will be confiscated. And at a paltry government
dictated price.

It happend before. It will happen again.

But wiat: In the past, Silver was *not* confiscated.
Nor will it be this time around.

Silver is safe. Safer than gold. Much safer.

I forsee the price of Silver becoming higher than
the price of gold. Does that seem unreal.?.

Consider this: Only a few years ago, an ounce of
Palladium cost a mere 1/3rd of an ounce of gold.
Yet recently, Palladium (at $800+/oz) was far more
than Gold.

Silver, for various and obvious reasons, will
equally surpass gold.

Unfortunately, for me, I own nary an ounce of
either. I'm still stuck with the paper shares.

I'll never learn.

ThaiGold
ThaiGold@OperaMail.Com
==================================================




Peter Asher (10/18/2000; 23:01:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 39368)
The Euro --Saddam's "Kiss of death"

There was some discussion here of Iraq switching from dollars to Euros for settlement being a watershed event. However, almost at that exact moment the first of two sharp Euro sell-offs occurred

The old adage, "The tape doesn't lie" should be considered here. The Euro ‘should have' rallied on that news, but in fact, has accelerated downward to new lows. All we know is that fact. I haven't been able to get a glimmer of an idea why.

ORO?? Can you come up with any thing here? TG??? anyone else ???

Peter Asher (10/18/2000; 22:28:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 39367)
Canuck (10/18/00; 11:13:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 39327)

Canuck (10/18/00; 11:13:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 39327)

Re gold not reacting to the morning ‘Crash'

I think gold has become an insiders investment vehicle, after all the ‘public' has a negative savings rate so that factor (including a ‘knee-jerk panic buy) has been removed from the long side.

My take is that all the "Insiders" knew they were going to re-inflate the bubble and so ignored gold. I've said this several times before; If the markets are going to be allowed to crash, there will be a precursor in the form of an unexplained Gold rally. ‘They' are not going to "give up the ghost" on the stock market without first securing a hard asset position!

nummus aureus (10/18/2000; 22:27:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 39366)
CLHEHOF, My .2 grams worth...
Auspec, you can count on my support. How about offering shares in Pete's Mine? (I don't seem to be able to find it's symbol, though...)

Gandalf the White (10/18/2000; 22:25:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 39365)
CLHE-HoF
auspec (10/18/2000; 21:07:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 39359)
Welcome Journeyman/ FREE GOLD!
Sir Journeyman,
Welcome to CLHEHOF Founders Group! It is actually CLHEHOF as I was briefly spelling impaired. With a steady archer such as you defecting to our expanding group we will soon overtake the castle. As was said by a famous man {GANDALF?}:
====
Did the WIZ hear correctly? -- Someone called for the Court Jester (Tks, Stranger) <;-) -- Sure, why not a CLHE-HoF !! Count me as a FOUNDER ! -- It may well take a while to convert the castle dungeon to properly "hang" the FUNTASTIC ones, but I am sure that Townie and SIR Jeff can do it.
<;-)

Sharefin (10/18/2000; 22:21:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 39364)
Paper Gold Stocks
http://www.sharelynx.net/Markets/Charts/GlobalGoldIndices.htm
Thoughts from the far side....

I think these paper gold markets have changed from what they used to be years ago.
I expect the stocks to not mirror the POG when it takes off.
Maybe they'll react half-heartedly to a rise in the POG.
But I doubt as a sector that they'll offer leverage to the POG as they used to do.

These charts to me speak volumes of the changes we've seen in the gold industry.
http://www.sharelynx.net/Markets/Charts/GlobalGoldIndices.htm

No one knows what's coming but I personally have little confidence in paper gold being a proxy for catching the coming gold bull.
Obviously individual stocks may differ but on the whole I expect the industry to be savaged by sentiment.
And my feelings here apply to the financial debt systems imploding to the extent that they trigger the POG much higher.

I doubt we'll see an orderly rise in the POG where it creeps day by day higher.
I see the POG being held down till the system fails.

Likewise with index puts that you can collect on as the SM falls in an orderly conduct but become uncollectable in the event of a major meltdown.
I expect the same within the gold markets.
Positions that have worked in an orderly market will become defunct in an explosive one.

To review the majority of gold producers globally.
And to rationalise them by ascending order of total production and extent of hedging.
One gets the impression that though there are really few gold producers globally.
The greatest amount of hedging is concentrated in the biggest players.

You could probably work a formula out something like ( mkt cap x hedging % ) where the end result would cover 90% of global production ( with hedging impacts ) from 10% of global producers.

To impact a $100 rise or even a $200 rise against this backdrop leaves me to believe that the industry will be torn apart in many places through financial shock.

Given the extent of leverage ( derivatives ) admist this small concentrated number of producers/hedgers
I can well understand why the POG is held in such a position as it currently is.

And I don't expect it to change till the markets force it to change by imploding.
I guess I'm pretty sure that a meltdown in the general financial markets
Will impact these gold derivatives to the extent that they to will break down.

In the face of the above happening
I see no value at all in paper gold stocks.
Sentiment within the industry will be abhorrant.
Far worse than what we are seeing today.

I would only be holding physical through this period
With the intention of jumping back into the paper
After the event.
Searching through the carnage looking for the new Homestakes ( a la 1930 )

****I cannot for the life of me**** understand the fascination of traders trying to preguess and profit from the coming debacle.

The last twenty years have been statistically profitable for trading markets.
Probably so with the next twenty, once this purging is over.

But this coming debacle is one to stay well clear of.
With little debt, liquidised assets, and the insurance of physical.
Play for 20 - step aside for 6 months - and get to play for the next 20.

So many will end up having their heads ripped off.
Anyone here deigning to profit with paper from what I feel is coming is deluding themselves that their pieces of paper will be honoured.

As far as judging the extent of what is happening & coming.
I expect the current systems to suddenly snap.
Not this gently roller coasting we've seen so far.

We ain't seen nothing yet..........
IMHO



Peter Asher (10/18/2000; 22:17:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 39363)
Stranger

Superb one-liner there, Sir.


>>>That is a good exercise in how much stocks really are commodities. The price of a share of Intel, for example, is never so much a function of supply and demand for microchips as it is a function of supply and demand for the shares themselves.<<<

Peter Asher (10/18/2000; 22:13:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 39362)
Auspec, Shifty, Jourrneyman: cc- Town Crier

"Everything in moderation, including moderation."

I just want to make it clear that I was proposing a DIGNIFIED site for Satire and Allegory. Writings should specifically address the broader scope of Forum topics regarding economics and sociology and current events pertaining to those.

I am somewhat alarmed at the suggestion of "goofballs, class clowns and glue sniffers; (I suppose Californians would be OK) after all, we wouldn't want this thing to be like the Internet! What? This IS the Internet? Oh, I often forget we're part of that thing. Well, you get my drift, right?

I would hope to see included such work as Peter Asher (4/3/99; 19:36:07MDT - Msg ID:4173)
"The Final Battle"; Led by the ### 5th Horseman, OIL ### (The Darth Vader satire) and the recent Peter Asher (9/22/2000; 0:44:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 37164) "Best Place In Town" which, though winning the popular vote, was ignored by the Electoral College.

There are other past works we might want to search up and submit for entry in this wing.

Finally auspec, we should be aware that considerable time and software capability on TC's part will be required. Maybe you should put in half that order in advance!

More later, I've got two on subjects I want to get on today's board. P.

TheStranger (10/18/2000; 22:00:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 39361)
Don't Let 'Em Fool You
Not much going on in Tokyo tonight. But Hong Kong is down a couple of hundred points. There was talk that Microsoft's robust earnings announcement after the N.Y. close would provide some lift. I'd like to know why. Most of their profit increase came from a $557 million gain on the company's investment portfolio, and not from actual operations. Profits from operations actually fell by $12 million in the quarter. Recent disasters in tech land are forcing analysts to cast a more discerning eye toward such reports, so it will be interesting to see how this story plays tomorrow.

One analyst who garnered raves recently was Ashuk Kumar (sp?). He was a lone voice among Intel analysts when he recently warned Piper Jaffrey clients that all was not well with the company. Unfortunately, Ashuk kind of put his foot in it today when he admitted he never expected the stock to go below 50 regardless of how bad things might be. Intel was only about 35 when his words hit the tape, so, with that, the mindless ones quickly bid the stock up for a couple of points gain on the day.

That is a good exercise in how much stocks really are commodities. The price of a share of Intel, for example, is never so much a function of supply and demand for microchips as it is a function of supply and demand for the shares themselves. Business hasn't dropped 50% for Intel in the past 7 weeks, but the stock sure has. And, just as the great bull market of the 90s was built upon too many dollars chasing too few shares, the current bear market is all about too few dollars chasing too many shares. In the end, even decent earnings won't spare most companies...
contracyclicals, such as oil and gold, excepted, of course.

goldfan (10/18/2000; 21:24:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 39360)
Auspec Free gold
OK I'll bite, I like the idea of free gold for the CLHEHOF So sign me up

Goldfan

auspec (10/18/2000; 21:07:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 39359)
Welcome Journeyman/ FREE GOLD!
Sir Journeyman,
Welcome to CLHEHOF Founders Group! It is actually CLHEHOF as I was briefly spelling impaired. With a steady archer such as you defecting to our expanding group we will soon overtake the castle. As was said by a famous man {GANDALF?}: First they ignore you {currently it appears}, then they laugh at you {soon, probably tomorrow}, then they fight you, then you win, then they laugh with you. We are now too numerous {4} and worthy to be denied. We expect and demand a response from the {Ivory} Tower tomorrow, even if it is just a laugh.

FREE GOLD FOR CLHEHOF FOUNDERS GROUP!!!!!
By special arrangement with the CPMT Treasury, all Founding Members of the Cerebral Left Hemisphere Enhanced Hall of Fame {CLHEHOF} Advocacy Group are to receive FREE GOLD of their choice {type and quantity}. This is official, and all you have to do to become a Fellow Founder is to step {TYPE} forward and join our ranks BEFORE the victory is claimed, probably tomorrow. Make something of your life, do the right thing, walk away from the mundane, join our growing & vibrant group of renegades. Be on the winning side for a change!
Brave & determined with momentum swinging our way- Sirs Peter Asher, Auspec, $hifty, and Journeyman

nickel62 (10/18/2000; 20:25:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 39358)
I think it is important to remember that a major form of paper creation and credit expansion.....
Has already blown up. The junk bond markets are in a state of chaos and that has got to have these financial masters of the universive in a very tight tizzy. The losses are spectacular from what I have heard and the liquidity is gone.

More to come tomorrow.

The advantage we goldbugs have is we have waited so long that we can wait a little longer as these bastards begin to burn real slow. I think if you listen very closely you can hear a banker crying somewhere in a town near you.

Journeyman (10/18/2000; 19:48:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 39357)
Debt, gold mining, corporations, revolution and CLHIHOF nomination @Aristotle, Rockgrabber, auspec, Town Crier, ALL

"why dont mines just hold gold, instead of trading it
for paper junk?" -Rockgrabber msg#: 39341

Because they borrowed money -- and most need capital to keep in
operation. A small operator without these concerns could just
sit back and wait. But today even he/she would be at the mercy
of the big corporations who can't do that. Most areas of the
economy these days are dominated by just such corporate entities
which can't do anything that interrupts cash flow. This makes it
difficult for the economy to adjust to normal fluctuations.

This is another good reason to examine the legal under-pinnings
of corporations. A good place to start might be with "The Legal
Foundations of Capitalism" by John R. Commons.

auspec: Hmm. "former class clowns, the irreverent, goofballs,
offbeats, lefties, Californians, past glue sniffers, poets,
philanderers, plagarists, ANYBODY that can work a keyboard!"
O.K. I guess that's inclusive enough to include me somewhere --
probably several times. So what is it you want me to do? Go for
the gold-mine backed currency? Or lobby for the CLHIHOF?

Town Crier: Better give into these guys -- I hereby join Sir
Peter and auspec in calling for a CLHIHOF!! It would be good for
morale! I don't smile nearly often enough.

Aristotle: I hereby nominate Aristotle's "Chimps, Champs and
Chumps" (msg#: 39302) as the first post to CLHIHOF. Aristotle,
I'm STILL smile'n!!

Regards,
Journeyman


Canuck (10/18/2000; 19:40:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 39356)
Pondering?
Reading around the posts today I wonder if the biggest, most
bizarre deal has been cut.

This currency war (dollar/euro) is getting wild.

Remember a quote shortly after the W.A. announcement, "..you guys have 6 months to cover your shorts and then it is over...". I forget the author, maybe Greenspan?

So now we have a new dollar/euro high. The disparity is killing both parties so I wonder about the deal of deals that is to be cut.

I wonder if the current administration has cut a deal with European and possible Japanese authorities that if the USA can continue the 'high dollar' policy until after the election (to ensure relection) then in return the policy is dropped after November.

It seems the ECB is not overly concerned about the EURO. I find this odd. The ME is putting the screws to the planet over oil and things are too quiet.

I watched the 2 gentlemen quibble last night; it was too boring. Something very large is brewing, anyone getting the same feeling?

Can't wait until after Nov. 7th.

SHIFTY (10/18/2000; 19:06:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 39355)
How I became $hifty
I was given the handle of shifty by a friend I go dredging with. I had a run in with the cops one night at the Xmas parade in my town. I did not even want to go but my wife was in the parade so it was best for me to attend.
Well seems a guy that fit my description did something and the cops grabbed me. I told them " You got the wrong guy" I guess all us long hair hippie types look the same to the men in blue. Well they took me away and took my picture to show the victim. She told them they had the wrong guy and they let me go.

$hifty

Journeyman (10/18/2000; 18:50:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 39354)
The Monster that Ate the Real Economy @Nickel62, The Traveler, Aristotle, Rockgrabber, ALL

"Its a good idea for those with all that paper at there
disposal whenever they can to sell Paper Commodity
anything, and go ahead and buy the physical goods, at a
wrong price you created." -nickel62 (10/18/2000;
16:28:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 39338)

I don't think "they're" doing it to manipulate prices, except
perhaps in the case of gold. They're doing it for short-term
profit. But "they'll" only buy the "physical goods" if they
understand what's happening and have the patience to await the
inevitable but un-timeable consequences. I don't think most of
"them" understand OR have the patience.

Now think about this in relation to all the derivatives out there
and what they've been doing to the "real economy." Think
"Cambior." Think "Ashanti." Think how American Can Corp.
morphed into Primerica. Now think Ford Credit, General Motors
Credit, General Electric Credit (which produces 45% of GE's
bottom line). Now think INTEL and Dell (who have been making a
very significant part of their bottom line in the markets). - -
- - Now think what happened to "oil" - - $10/bbl a year or so
ago.

Can you think "gold spike?" Can you think "commodity price
spike?" Think "squeezed farmers." Can you think "general price
spike." Can you think "inflation?"

Regards,
Journeyman


wolavka (10/18/2000; 18:35:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 39353)
Aristotle
I must agree, the truth hurts , and it could kill but i will manage it.

evil does have its limitations.




auspec (10/18/2000; 18:18:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 39352)
Correction?/beesting
Make that CLHEHOF- Cerebral Left Hemisphere Enhanced.
Beesting-can use any of my drivel as you see fit.

auspec (10/18/2000; 18:12:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 39351)
FOUNDERS! Peter , Auspec, $hifty
Shifty!
We suspected all along you couldn't hold out {with a name like shifty he has to be funny}and are rolling now. Who else will join the fray? Have you ever in your life told a joke or laughed at someone else's? You are fully qualified. Consider straying from the establishment and joining our merry band. We are talking GROUND LEVEL OPPORTUNITY! Cb2, there is no way you can pass this up. All will officially be consider FOUNDERS of this select group up until the very minute Michael and Towne Crier {spelled the correct way} beg us to participate in their new USAGOLD HOF
category for the cerebral left hemisphere inhanced {is that right?}. CLHIHOF?
WHOM ELSE???

Farfel (10/18/2000; 18:02:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 39350)
P.S. re: Sunrise, Sunset
If my previous post resonates with anybody out there, then feel free to send copies to SUN MICRO and regulatory authorities at the Nasd and Sec.

Maybe it will get their attention and then again...

Nah, I doubt it, on second thought, forget about it....

Thanks

F*

Farfel (10/18/2000; 17:57:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 39349)
Sunrise, Sunset....
Today's action in the stock market inspired me to recall the old song, "SUNRISE, SUNSET," from Fiddler on the Roof.

In the midst of all the unease and frayed nerves, SUN MICROSYSTEMS, a major core holding of most tech funds, "accidentally" released earnings, which soundly beat estimates and removed a key source of nervousness/anxiety from bullish hearts. Of course, "accidents" will happen, especially those that save Wall Street bulls from the consequences of their irrationality and greed.

So the SUN slowly but surely rose, and emboldened bulls decided to do all in their power to establish a final, incontrovertible bottom.

Around that time, gold got sold into the marketplace, and undoubtedly funds realized were used to buy bullish investments and accelerate the recovery.

Once again, the Clinton government's interference in the marketplace occurred, the hallmark of the most corrupt government to ever hold office in this land. Period.

Once again, it is worth restating that the next time somebody lauds the "free" US markets, then go tell them to stick it, there is nothing free about these US markets, they are immersed in manipulation, market rigging, cronyism, and moral hazard. The only difference between American markets and the most corrupt third world markets lies in appearance, NOT in reality.

Oh, if only all of us poor duped naive gold investors could go back several years in time, and never never never touch a single ounce of gold, in physical or paper form. How much happier we would be! If only all the contrarians in this land could go back in time and never never never short a single dollar of S & P stock! I feel so foolish thinking that I once believed in a level playing field, that I once believed that fairness existed in any form in this country.

My late father, rest his soul, loved his country, and taught me the golden rule, and a litany of themes about playing the game as it is supposed to be played, NEVER straying from the duties and obligations required of the society in which you live. For that reason, I gave to my community, served on some six boards of directors of various community organizations, etc.

Yet after a day like today, I feel once again like a sap, an idiot, because the bottom line reality is this: in America, you get nowhere playing by the rules, you get nowhere serving community unless you only aim to serve yourself, because anybody who accomplishes anything significant in this country cheats and lies, claws and tears at those around him, no matter how much suffering is inflicted. Anybody who progresses up the ladder of success in this country holds no respect for boundaries or manners or etiquette or any other such niceties of life.

Good morals are OLD PARADIGM, and in America, the NEW PARADIGM demands that you cheat, screw, piss on, and f*ck your neighbor, no matter how, where, when or in what form.

That is why a company like SUN MICROSYSTEMS can do what they did today, because success at any cost is all that matters in America today and if it means breaking the rules and screwing those who play by the rules, so big F_ing deal! Let all the goody two shoes eat cake, only the manipulators really matter in this country, and they will accomplish their ends no matter how many rules of proper conduct have to be broken!

Ultimately, I have no idea whether or not SUN and its beneficiaries will be punished for their latest "accident." At the tender age of 44, I am finally realizing that realistically, Good only conquers Evil in Hollywood movies, NOT in reality.

Yet if there is one vestige of Karmic justice in this world, then those manipulators from SUN will face the most awful repercussions for their short term victory, and the Universe will provide them with a permanent Sunset.

But don't hold your breath waiting for it, don't count on it.

Thanks

F*




SHIFTY (10/18/2000; 17:56:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 39348)
CFTC
I guess this kind of thing goes on so much it seems normal to the CFTC.

$hifty


SHIFTY (10/18/2000; 17:53:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 39347)
CFTC Response
Dear $hifty

This letter is in response to your e-mail message of September 22, 2000 to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in which you expressed your concern about trading activity in the gold market. You referred to a letter sent to Chairman Rainer by Mr. Ethan Stroud in which Mr. Stroud alleged a manipulation of the price of gold.

The CFTC places the highest priority on the prevention of price manipulation in all U.S. futures and option-on-futures markets. The CFTC monitors trading activity in commodity markets in order to detect and prevent market manipulation and other forms of market abuse. The Commodity Exchange Act (CEAct) makes it unlawful to manipulate or attempt to manipulate the market price of any commodity in interstate commerce, or for future delivery on or subject to the rules of any contract market. In order to prove a manipulation, it must be shown that a trader intentionally caused the price of a commodity to become artificial or, in other words, intentionally moved the price of a commodity away from a level reflecting the legitimate forces of supply and demand.

The CFTC receives daily reports identifying the holders of all long and short positions (above certain reporting levels) in each futures and options market. Using these reports, CFTC economists routinely monitor trading activity in the gold futures and option markets. In addition, our analysts monitor prices and price relationships and other data in the gold cash and futures markets. In light of recent expressions of concern about possible improper activity in the gold market, our analysts have conducted special analyses of the trading and position holding activities in the gold futures and option markets. Based both on our routine review of the gold market and the additional analyses we have conducted, we are not aware of any evidence to conclude that the gold price has been, or is being, manipulated. We have also found no evidence of coordinated sales of gold futures and/or option contracts.
I hope this information is helpful to you.

Sincerely,



John Mielke
Director
Market Surveillance Section



SHIFTY (10/18/2000; 17:47:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 39346)
auspec /Peter
Count me in. I think we need a place to laugh. This stuff can start to get to you on a day like today.

$hifty

beesting (10/18/2000; 17:36:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 39345)
Pete's Goldmine!
Thanks Sir auspec, with your permission I'm going to make some copies of our whole discussion, and give them to Pete!
Kindest Regards......beesting.

Canuck (10/18/2000; 17:34:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 39344)
Miscellaneous
Last post had errors, this one correct, sorry and thanks.
Weird day (as usual) for gold.

Higher than expected CPI and a beating laid on the DOW and TSE300 (Canada); both breaking key 10K levels.

The 'gold management' dolts managed to bring gold down a bit through the fireworks demonstrating to gold novices that gold cannot be an alternative in economic downturns.

Pass me a puke bucket, I'm going to hurl.

The dolts, asleep at the wheel from 8:30 to about 9:00, 9:15 let gold rise from 271 (spot) to 273.30 then woke up and smashed in back down BELOW 271 providing insult to REAL investors.

Anyone looking at tomorrow's paper seeing NY close day on day would miss the real truth. Anyone and I mean anyone looking at the 8:30-11:00 window this am can SEE the 'management' crystal clear. At 8:30am this am the CPI was released; the POG, coupled with the fact that the stock markets were going to have a brutal day, took on a 60 degree vertical leap for nearly an hour. Soon afterwards the PPT regained composure and slapped the POG around.

Earlier today ORO posted the critical details of the introvention as he does so well. My point to other novices like myself is the obvious, crystal clear, stopping of a supposed free-market. There is no free market in gold.

The coiled spring theory.

This week-end I fixed my recoil on my lawnmower. The rope was lazy; I had to tighten the spring. Ever fix a recoil?
There is a spring that tightens when the rope is pulled out so that when released the spring pulls the rope back into the mechanism. If you get yourself out of whack and the spring lets loose, a one hour job turns into a nightmare.
Well, at a critical point during the repair where I had the spring at full tension I paused to think of the 'gold management' team. One millimeter slip and the spring would explode from a tiny circle into a steel snake whipping and whirling about completely out of control. I almost let it loose on purpose just to see!!

Anyone not sure of the 'game' need only print out the POG today and examine the morning track from 8:30-11:00. Ask yourself what happened from 9:15/9:30 to 11:00.

@ Ari,

Thanks for the comment; I am beginning to get over it. Looks like the dollar/euro game is near its end, yes?
Money flowing (naturally?) to highest R.O.I. will soon cease. I believe the end-game nears, apres Nov. 7 perhaps.
The dollar game is up and very soon the oil game is up.
The debt game is lurking, margin debt etc, etc. Convergence
of misalignments is upon us, time to kick over the barrels of snakes?

Gold.... also for lawnmower repairs.

Canuck.



Canuck (10/18/2000; 17:30:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 39343)
Miscellaneous
11:00Weird day (as usual) for gold.

Higher than expected CPI and a beating laid on the DOW and TSE300 (Canada); both breaking key 10K levels.

The 'gold management' dolts managed to bring gold down a bit through the fireworks demonstrating to gold novices that gold cannot be an alternative in economic downturns.

Pass me a puke bucket, I'm going to hurl.

The dolts, asleep at the wheel from 8:30 to about 9:00, 9:15 let gold rise from 271 (spot) to 271.30 then woke up and smashed in back down BELOW 271 providing insult to REAL investors.

Anyone looking at tomorrow's paper seeing NY close day on day would miss the real truth. Anyone and I mean anyone looking at the 8:30-11:00 window this am can SEE the 'management' crystal clear. At 8:30am this am the CPI was released; the POG, coupled with the fact that the stock markets were going to have a brutal day, took on a 60 degree vertical leap for nearly an hour. Soon afterwards the PPT regained composure and slapped the POG around.

Earlier today ORO posted the critical details of the introvention as he does so well. My point to other novices like myself is the obvious, crystal clear, stopping of a supposed free-market. There is no free market in gold.

The coiled spring theory.

This week-end I fixed my recoil on my lawnmower. The rope was lazy; I had to tighten the spring. Ever fix a recoil?
There is a spring that tightens when the rope is pulled out so that when released the spring pulls the rope back into the mechanism. If you get yourself out of whack and the spring lets loose, a one hour job turns into a nightmare.
Well, at a critical point during the repair where I had the spring at full tension I paused to think of the 'gold management' team. One millimeter slip and the spring would explode from a tiny circle into a steel snake whipping and whirling about completely out of control. I almost let it loose on purpose just to see!!

Anyone not sure of the 'game' need only print out the POG today and examine the morning track from 8:30-11:00. Ask yourself what happened from 9:15/9:30 to 11:00.

@ Ari,

Thanks for the comment; I am beginning to get over it. Looks like the dollar/euro game is near its end, yes?
Money flowing (naturally?) to highest R.O.I. will soon cease. I believe the end-game nears, apres Nov. 7 perhaps.
The dollar game is up and very soon the oil game is up.
The debt game is lurking, margin debt etc, etc. Convergence
of misalignments is upon us, time to kick over the barrels of snakes?

Gold.... also for lawnmower repairs.

Canuck.



auspec (10/18/2000; 17:27:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 39342)
WE'RE BAAAAACKK!/ Peter Asher
Peter,
I can't seem to get a rise out of these guys, maybe they're asleep at the stern. Thought for sure my financial pressure would get the job done, guess some people just don't need that kind of money. Maybe CPM is another BB, have all this physical supply readily on hand, and just simply don't care about another $2.34M order {maybe they didn't see that M correctly}. Anyway in the interest of obtaining our HOF for "colorful" posts we should try another tact. Let's just keep pestering them until they accede! No one can hold up to that type of pressure. We need some more USAGOLD posters to join our small ranks {2}. Looking for former class clowns, the irreverent, goofballs, offbeats, lefties, Californians, past glue sniffers, poets, philanderers,plagarists, ANYBODY that can work a keyboard! Will settle for just one more humor advocate. It doesn't hurt that much to use several sections of the cerebrum. Help me, Peter. Here is yesterday's post as promised, guess what you will get to see tomorrow with additional commentary??? Give up yet???auspec (10/17/00; 21:27:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 39265)
Peter Asher/ Satire
Evening Sir,
The silence ends as am no longer able to contain myself, here is a second to your desire for a separate HOF category for the off-beat! Lord knows this site could lighten up a bit. This poster has a lot of influence with Michael as am currently in process of ordering $2.34M worth of British Sovereigns from him. Either we get our category or I will pull this order! This is clearly a capitalist enterprise that responds to it's customers {and their bucks}. You know, with the commissions this outfit charges, 30-35%, that order is worth a lot of ski trips, and bottles of Chivas, even to Buffet, Gates, and Kosares. If we don't get our needs met by the next new moon we'll organize a strike and all buy our future fortunes on Comex {they have all that gold don't they?}. It is totally unfair and undemocratic to limit the HOF to the intelligent. Let the people speak and gain the victory from our oppressors...What say you fellow {half} wits??????????

P.S. This post will appear daily until the revolution is over.Thank you Sir Peter for your persistence!


Rockgrabber (10/18/2000; 17:21:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 39341)
US Dollar Paper Futures Contracts
Nickle162 thanks, I did not even know the complications myself really, but sort of might now after having wrote it and thought about it.

I really want to ask this question.
Can you get an artificial high dollar value, from buying "leveraged" paper dollars?

auspec I never thought of that.. why dont mines just hold gold, instead of trading it for paper junk?

auspec (10/18/2000; 17:02:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 39340)
AUCHICK/ Hunker Down
Greetings,
You must be some type of distant relative of mine, so wanted to say hi. The only people I know that speak of "hunkering down" are Georgia Bulldog fans. Exceptions to most rules of course. You are correct, these are glorious times to those with wisdom, foresight, and MONEY to take advantage of current gold market gifts. I am on my haunches and ready for the real game to start. Best to you!

auspec (10/18/2000; 16:51:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 39339)
Busting the Bullion Banker Boys/beesting
Sir beesting,
OK, I'm coming around a bit now to the idea. Am all for a method of bypassing the BBs up as a means to capital! You still have to have a VIABLE mine in order to have this as a part of the co idea. Will leave that to you and Pete and move on to the LARGER picture.
I certainly do like the idea of a mining co holding physical gold as an asset. This slows down the "burn rate" on that burning match previously mentioned. Anyone else know of a reason a mining co cannot hold physical????? "Taking the paper gold pricing mechanism away" from the BBs is the key! We have been promoting the idea of supporting the non-hedgers with a degree of success from shareholder perspective. To take this a step forward, the idea of convincing a major or junior miner to hold some physical ,in hand & not just in the ground, may have merit. A great way for a co to PROMOTE instead of undercut their product.
We know what it feels like to get the {mining} shaft and, all other things being equal, would clearly prefer to vote {buy} the shares of the co that has physical on hand. Must clearly see the difference between gold reserves in the ground, that may require selling the company soul to produce, versus free and clear in hand yellow metal.
OK MINING COMPANY EXECUTIVES- 1- Are you unhedged? 2- Do you support GATA? 3- Got PHYSICAL??!! If you build it they will come {buy}. I'm sure all of the mining execs have been following our discussion so this is basically a done deal, right? Best to the schemer. AUPROMOTE


nickel62 (10/18/2000; 16:28:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 39338)
Rockgrabber Thank you!
I never fully appreciated the significance of the use of the paper commodities to depress the price until your last post. Thanks.


"The game=Sell the hell out of paper gold, with a strong paper dollar, in order to attain an artificial low "physical" price, and then you are covered with physical.

Like Trail Guide said you do not expose a market dynamic that is delivering in your favor.

I saw someone here mention this selling with paper oil created an artificial low oil price as well for as long as they wished it to be low. Its easy from what I can see to create a low commodity price through this leveraged paper crap.

Its a good idea for those with all that paper at there disposal whenever they can to sell Paper Commodity anything, and go ahead and buy the physical goods, at a wrong price you created."

Rockgrabber (10/18/2000; 16:07:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 39337)
Aristotle
I want to apologize to you, the reason being I remember about 1 month ago making really lame statements. About leverage, "leverage, get you some." What a stupid thing to have said, really. I really sort of thought you, and others maybe really did not want others to be leveraged like themselfes perhaps, and that it would be great if folks could help to take physical off the market and help to explode the paper market when the time was right. But that is not the game is it? I am better understanding this game due to ones like yourself, thanks for the class. The game=Sell the hell out of paper gold, with a strong paper dollar, in order to attain an artificial low ""physical" price, and then you are covered with physical. Like Trail Guide said you do not expose a market dynamic that is delivering in your favor. I saw someone here mention this selling with paper oil created an artificial low oil price as well for as long as they wished it to be low. Its easy from what I can see to create a low commodity price through this leveraged paper crap. Its a good idea for those with all that paper at there disposal whenever they can to sell Paper Commodity anything, and go ahead and buy the physical goods, at a wrong price you created. Now what about the dollar? DO they do the opposite? Do they have a strong dollar system too? What are they up to on that one? DO they just buy leveraged paper dollars with less dollars through going long "leveraged paper dollar contracts" to get a high artificial price on the dollar??? What are they doing in order to get this dollar like this??

nickel62 (10/18/2000; 15:44:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 39336)
Aristotle
I noticied today they kept interrupting the CNBC/GE talk show to announce that the EURO was making new all time lows. Is it so tight right now that they not only have to throw a wet blanket on money flows going into gold but also into the EURO? They must be running out of magic money to keep these bloated Dow and Nasduck carcasses afloat.

beesting (10/18/2000; 15:41:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 39335)
On Going discussion about USAGOLD Msg. 39164 10/16/00 17:52MT
Hi again sir auspec,hope you had a good day.
Your question from this morning:

<<Q for you- Why should I buy your shares, with your "paper gold backed money", when I can just go
buy my own gold outright?>>

Very good question and you would actually have more physical Gold on hand at the end of a certain time period for the same dollar amount invested.
Here is my answer:
The heading on my original post # 39164 said:
A Grass Roots Way to Raise the Physical Price of Gold!

Despite the valiant efforts of GATA and all those in The Know, Buying Physical Gold for the last few years(us Goldhearts), the (paper)POG has languished.

Lets examine briefly what most believe is the cause:
Some of the largest Goldmines in the world have sold off future Gold production to "Bullion Bankers" who in turn have flooded the paper Gold trading markets with an over supply of paper Gold(future contracts for Gold) thereby forcing the "paper" price of Gold in U.S. dollars down.

Now it seems to me from reading these Gold forums even though most realize what is really going on in the Gold market,diversified Gold investors(including me)are still hoping and praying for a miracle investor to come along and buy all the existing Gold on hand causing a shortage of Gold on a worldwide scale and forcing the POG up(a short squeeze)or some other catastrophic event.
Maybe this will happen, maybe it won't!

I say to all those paper Gold investors who have been losing dollar amount value on their paper Gold investments for the last 20 years( Yes, me too) should reverse the power the "Bullion Banks" have over the every day POG by putting "REAL WEALTH" back into the hands of the Gold mine share holders, and taking the paper Gold pricing mechanism away from them(the Bullion Banks)!

See my #39164 post and follow ups on how it could be done.I think share holders of one small company "WORKING TOGETHER" could cause a snowball effect on the POG and the whole Gold mining industry!

If only one small Gold mines share price started to rise dramatically over a period of time, wouldn't the other Gold mining companies take notice to see how that Gold mine was doing it, and quickly follow?

Lets take an example of what would have happened if Ashanti Gold mining co. had defaulted:
The BANKS have first priority over remaining assets, so the banks and maybe the Ghanian Government would get the physical assets and the shareholders would already have paper gold which would have little or no value.

What would happen if Pete's Gold mine with NO DEBT closed for some reason?
The shareholders who would be the owners of Pete's mine INCLUDING PETE, would get 90% of their investment back in physical Gold. Now if the price of Gold went to zero I would still prefer to own worthless physical gold to worthless paper Gold!!!

Bottom Line:
***If a small percentage of the money invested in paper ever cashed out and re-invested in physical Gold,or a Gold mine like Pete's, I think a very real physical Gold short squeeze would occur worldwide, forcing the real POG up!!!***

Sorry Sir auspec, I don't think Pete's mine would have any paid management,only shareholders and possibly hired help at prevailing wage rates for the time being anyway.
Thanks again for reading.....beesting.


Aristotle (10/18/00; 15:27:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 39334)
The Wet Blanket Phenomenon -- Are there any doubters left?
Excerpt of my post offered at the start today's "Gold trading" --

"Long positions in paper gold are NOT used, as you might like to think, as a "fire insurance policy" among institutions having vested interests in [maintaining] the status quo, whereby such a long derivative position would be expected (by you) to compensate them for rising Gold prices and weaker dollars. Instead, these institutions use the offering of paper gold (and its influence on price discovery) as a WET BLANKET to keep Gold from catching fire in the first place.(!)"

Canuck, maybe this addresses your concerns from post #39327 where you rightly fumed--
"This is beyond believable....Every arrow is red on the stinking TV, every financial indication is bleak and gold is down for the day?
What in God's green earth do these people expect us to believe anymore? Are they asking us to believe gold is worth less now than at 7:00am this morning?"

And Wolavka, are you a believer now in the "wet blanket" phenomenon? What have you to say regarding your earlier comment to me, "I will address your post at end of trading day"? I don't mean to put you on the spot, just to solicit your latest thoughts, impressions, or opinions on this matter.

Real Gold. A horse that's free to run, and easy to ride. ---Aristotle

Boxman (10/18/00; 14:59:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 39333)
Jim "Beam me up" Traficant
You've got to love this guys way with words. To bad he is embroiled in his present difficulties, I hope they are unfounded.


The United States Is In Deep Doodoo!

United States Congressional Record - March 17, 1993 - Vol. #33, page H-1303 - Speaker- Rep. James Traficant, Jr. (Ohio) addressing the House:

"Mr. Speaker, we are here now in chapter 11. Members of Congress are official trustees presiding over the greatest reorganization of any Bankrupt entity in world history, the U.S. Government. We are setting forth hopefully, a blueprint for our future. There are some who say it is a coroner's report that will lead to our demise."


Mike




USAGOLD (10/18/00; 14:46:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 39332)
EuroBusiness. . .
http://www.usagold.com/announcement/europeantelegram.html
We have been told by our Euro long distance carrier that our new European 800 number is operational in the following countries:

France
Italy
Portugal
Spain
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Germany

We are still waiting for clearance on the other EU nations.

We are requesting that USAGOLDers contact us if you live in one of the above countries so that we can verify that the number is working.

It is toll free so it won't cost you anything:

00-800-2760-2760

If there is a problem and you have a moment, would you be so kind to e-mail us at

marie@usagold.com

and describe the problem? We would be grateful. Be sure to identify which country you live in.

We consider the publishing of this number the official indicator that we are "in business" in those countries.

To our European friends:

Please visit our European Delivery Page linked above for details if you would like to order from us. We would like to thank those Europeans who have already ordered from us. From what we are told, gold is doing very well in euro terms.

We look forward to hearing from you if you have an interest in gold. We are now ready also to deliver information packets to Europe. If you would like to receive our Almanac and further acquaint yourself with Dr. Moneywise (and USAGOLD/Centennial Precious Metals) who was quoted in today's Daily Report, you can make your request at the "Request Info" page (See the very top of this page for the link.)

Thanks one and all.

Zenidea (10/18/00; 13:39:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 39331)
pre pop? !!!!

Dow Jones down 400 pts in first hour
From AP
19oct00

02:20(AEDT) THE Dow Jones
industrial average dropped
more than 400 points today,
falling below 10,000 for the
first time in six months as
investors, spooked by earnings, oil prices and inflation numbers,
unloaded stocks.

The drop followed disappointing earnings reports from IBM and Intel,
and a Labor Department report showing a pickup in inflation also sent
prices falling.

In the first hour of trading, the Dow was down 421.38 at 9,668.33,
extending a 149-point drop from yesterday. The last time the Dow
fell below 10,000 in trading was March 15, and today's decline
brought the blue chip index to its lowest levels of the year.

Broader indicators also fell. The Nasdaq composite index was off
183.77 at 3,030.19, compounding its 76-point drop of yesterday,
and the Standard and Poor's 500 index fell 42.03 to 1,307.94.

The market opened on news that consumer prices jumped 0.5 per
cent in September, the biggest advance since June, as energy prices
rebounded sharply.

The increase renewed fears that the Federal Reserve would keep
interest rates where they are, rather than decreasing them, at its
next meeting in November.

"People are starting to worry that the rise in energy costs is
beginning to fall over into the rest of the economy," said Mark
Vitner, an economist with First Union

Zenidea (10/18/00; 13:36:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 39330)
Sir Journeyman re:39296
That wouldnt surprise me friend. Thanks.

TheStranger (10/18/00; 12:15:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 39329)
ORO
I don't know who you are or how you get your information, but I am very thankful you are here. Bravo!

Buena Fe (10/18/00; 11:43:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 39328)
currency war
Our pain is almost over folks! The US$ seems to be experiencing its blow-off/shortcovering blow-up......just a few more days..........then BOOOOOOOOOOOM! Gold will be freeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

(some hedge fund must be getting its clock cleaned of a short US$ postision.....always seems to end that way.....)

Canuck (10/18/00; 11:13:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 39327)
Reference Oro #39316
Here's the part of the PPT business that boils me the most.

The POG this am, is merrily bouncing along at 271, along comes a 'more-than-expected' CPI and a caving stock market opening so gold reacts (as expected) with a little spike to 273.30.

Immediately afterwards, gold gets its face ripped off and settles down to 270, a FULL DOLLAR BELOW the original pre-opening (Comex) price of 271.

That is insulting; it is beyond insulting. If the PPT had brought it back to the 271 I would have called them a bunch of snivelling snot-nosed children but actually BELOW the pre-opening price? We get plunging financial news and we are expected to beleive gold has faired worse because of it.

This is beyond believable. The dork on CNBC just said, "The impact of lower earnings and growth has sparked inflation concerns and thus the 420 point (opening) carnage in the Dow". And this causes gold to drop?

Every arrow is red on the stinking TV, every financial indication is bleak and gold is down for the day?

What in God's green earth do these people expect us to believe anymore? Are they asking us to believe gold is worth less now than at 7:00am this morning?

"Investors on Wall Street and on Bay Street are running scared today". The dork just said that. "The TSE opened 300 points lower and the DOW 420, investors are leaving the tech sector....".

And gold is down?

Sure pal, yep, gold is down; just a few more brazen insults like this and we shall see, we shall see. A dork like you is definitely short and we shall see a parabolic spike that will shut you up once and for all. When your paper has diluted to pennies on the dollar and you need a 50 inch monitor to see the top of the spike I get to go on the tube and tell you distortions of truth you sub-terranean lizard.

Ok,.... hysteria mode off.

Oil up a bit, ENB cooking with 'gas'; sub-10k DJIA at the end of the day might prove interesting.

Gold...the real McCoy.

Gandalf the White (10/18/00; 10:58:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 39326)
Thank you SIR ORO ! -- and WELCOME to The Traveler !!
I knew that I could come to the TableRound and find out "what in the Mordor was happening" !!!
===
Pull up a chair near me, Traveler, I like your stories, but you can't be the court jester, as The Stranger says that I am !!
==
"Greetings to all. To earn my meal from the Forum's table, I shall entertain you. Decide later if I am the court jester."
==
<;-)

SteveH (10/18/00; 10:49:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 39325)
Euro, all time low...
dollar, reach for the sky, now over 1.17+.

Euro is in the .83's.

Something is going on...ORO? Is this your intervention?

Rockgrabber (10/18/00; 10:45:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 39324)
What is the dollar thinking?
My Gold calls and dollar puts are not doing real well. Actually the best move for me to do is to always stradlle these things, but I did not. I love it when I know something and dont impliment it. But anyhow... I think there could perhaps be a point I will use 350 and 400 to cash out long play options and convert to physical, if it will be possable, I will give it my best. Of course I would never do this if I loved money, cause I know it is lost playing this game heheheh.

That dollar is just nuts. Before this is all said and done, many of times I see I will have to question my sanity.
But I already know that, so it will not be a big surprise.

I go to my local gold dealer about once a week for pysical and I have just been able to fill my hole safe up. (some gold, lots of silver) And he informs me I am the only one that comes in to buy those 100 once silver bars. I just love walking out carrying 600 to 800 onces (all I can carry) and having looks flashed like, WHAT THE HELL???? (Dont worry my safe is in the hills burried, and it is very heavy, way to much to carry) So if you want to make your safe so it cant be carried away, just fill the thing with physical, its even cheap to do it. Put 10000 in physical silver, and you will have a heavy safe.


OOHH By the way I have to throw out a suggestion, You know ol Jack Nicholas, the "Golden Bear"? You want some really nice hats or shirts, he has them. I just thought of this a bit back, today I am going to go find me a GOLDEN BEAR hat. I love that big picture of a Gold Bear

ORO (10/18/00; 10:42:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 39323)
Further evidence of futures induced recovery
The stocks in the Nasdaq 100 index have increased by 7% or so, while the stocks that are not so priveleged have declined. The NDX/NCOMP ratio of index leaders to the overall market has moved from 0.4 level in early 98 to 0.75 at the open of 99, to a peak of 1.6 at Mar 2000. The inflated members of the ND100 have given up much of the premium and have gone to just over 1 in relation to the broad Nasdaq market. The PPT action in May brought it back up to 1.2 and this was followed by natural buyers lifting the ND100 stocks to near 1.3. From there, declines were registered as nearly all of the major ND100 components presented problems in their operations. The ratio was brought down to 1. On Friday, the markets were again "supported" (though it did not seem so at the time) with a futures driven/aided rally that ended with the ratio rising back to 1.08 in one fell swoop, thus showing a disproportionate flow of funds into that portion of the market that could be purchased through the ND100 futures. Meaning that the move was not a natural one. This morning's entire move was a product on this type of intervention as the ratio went from 1.4 back up to just under 1.08 in all of 30 minutes.

One of the telling elements of the March spike up is that it was led by the ND100 in way above trend runup that could only come as a result of a short squeeze from the futures market, where bullish investors had hedged exposure to the tech stocks with ND100 futures, which they had to liquidate as the hedge caused losses. Only when this hedge was exhausted did the market fail. This comes as part of the rule of ends; the end of the trend is upon us when the hedges destroy the investor seeking safety in them.





Cavan Man (10/18/00; 10:25:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 39322)
Hello CB2 and ORO
Would either of you care to comment on the general topic of mining shares. Are they a lost cause even in small amounts? Sure would appreciate your wisdom. Thanks

Cavan Man (10/18/00; 10:21:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 39321)
Knallgold: Mining Shares
The "main street" buyer of mining shares (me) is looking at POG and will not buy share until the POG moves up. The smart traders and insiders would normally be accumulating in light of the inflation news now coming out--they are not. Must be they are well tuned to the "political will" FOA spoke of.

In this struggle, the "political will" has to be broken by the other side for POG to rise. I do not understand this market failing on the way down scenario. In light of current events, I do not understand it at all.

ORO (10/18/00; 10:09:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 39320)
Motives
By the way, options expiration seems to be the motive for the pump up and the wild swings of Friday and today. While Friday contained a large amount of actual investor buying, today we had futures led purchases for arbitrage. Early next week we shall see the actual sentiment in the market manifest itself with less interference from the need of the bank trading desks to avoid crashing the bank.

As I have mentioned before, the breaks seen in the market over the past few years have had a substantial danger of wrecking the bankers. The break this morning, with the gap down open was a non-hedgeable event in the dynamic delta hedgeing strategy used by bank traders and had to be undone post haste in order to avoid a very substantive loss come expiration.

The bond markets are still distressed as spreads continue upwards. Now at 8.5% or so, corporate junk bond spreads have yet to fully reflect Moody's expectation of an 8.4% default rate, but have fully reflected a 6.4-6.7% (number from memory so don't hold me to it) default rate. with a 0.7-1% originary interest component, which is very low. Perhaps a non-economic "investor" is playing in this market, attempting to avoid spread increases to the requisite 11-12% range that would reflect both the low credit quality and the originary interest component.





CoBra(too) (10/18/00; 10:08:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 39319)
@ ORO -
-Old Dante Allighieri should have known our day markets and he would have put up another (not too different) sign on the entrance of his purgatorio, which is turning rapidly into your inferno: " You are entering a rigged market place and are eternally condemmed to buy the dips on ever depreciating paper. " With the compliments of your friendly
investment devils , the B(eelze)B(ubs), the Hedge Communi(s)ty, the PPT and N-(under-)WO.
cb2



Chrusos (10/18/00; 09:48:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 39318)
Oil/ Euro paper and physical gold
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_00/hickel101800.html
2 brief extracts from an must read exciting article at above reference on GE - could have been penned by the master himself (FOA)

"So, the game appears to be about how Nations reassert the role of gold without shocking the world with that reality. Since the dollar has twice defaulted and appears close to doing so again on gold-debt (paper gold), it may have been decided by the refs that the other team (euro?) gets the ball now. We shall see........

WHEN is also the question. When will gold rise? When it is time to let currencies reset the clock to gold's market value. When will it be proper to let currencies reset to a gold? When no more moves can be made to hold gold back or a key player who can turn the ball over decides its time. Is oil the key to turning the ball over?

So, the WHEN, now becomes when the physical gold is all called for and oil has no more to buy, then currencies will reset. Oil will drive gold higher through an ever increasing appetite for physical gold. The game can only be extended as long as players accept more and more dollars for paper gold. Once this insatiable appetite for paper has been stopped, physical gold will rise......."


Opening Dow smashes through multiple support levels into 9600's before tommorrows option close out and people start covering ... I'm off down to the coin shop

Chrusos



jayzee (10/18/00; 09:47:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 39317)
HELP!
Can anyone find an e-mail address for Wim Duisenberg, head of the ECB? (Home or office).
If the ECB would buy gold with much of their US dollars, the value of the euro would increase to the level that they desired.
Thanks for your help!



ORO (10/18/00; 09:42:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 39316)
PPT action this morning
http://www.wsj.com/
Just before the open, perhaps 2 mins the Nasdaq 100 futures did a switch from 0 premium (-1% off of fair value) to 40 (above fair value and at the arbitrage point) and when this was overtaken by selling, the premium was jacked up within 12 mins to over 90, or (+2% over fair value). This trigerred a massive short squeeze and marked the precise bottom for the day.
The market was left to its own from 9:50 till 10:30, when slight weakness brought on a milder injection from the futures at smaller pulses just above the arbitrage limit.

Prep for this has been in the works since the 11th of the month, as the Fed has added permanent reserves at that time, for settlement thursday. This made the funds available for trade the next day. Which is when the SPOOs made an abrupt U turn of 3%+ and the NDX went up some 8%.

Needless to say, the bank trading desks had used up their liquidity and had to get new settlement cash in order to support the market by posting margin into the futures market. The emergency this morning probably used substantial extra cash which was generated by sales of puts over Thursday and yesterday, and by a probable Fed action.

The projected Fed intervention at the time was in the 2-4 billion range. I expect something on that order to be reported some time this week.

Gold intervention seems to have coincided with this action at precisely the same time.



CoBra(too) (10/18/00; 09:33:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 39315)
Watch out below - the goons are throwing hard assets at POG, the
financial and currency markets - the kitchen sink! cb2

Journeyman (10/18/00; 09:29:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 39314)
Back to the Future @ALL

Cornell founder Andrew Dickson White's analysis of Fiat Money Inflation In France just, for some reason, seems apropos at this point in history. What do you think? Are we indeed heades back to the future?

"Out of the inflation of prices grew a speculating class;
and, in the complete uncertainty as to the future, all business
became a game of chance, and all businessmen, gamblers. In city
centers came a quick growth of stockjobbers and speculators; and
these set a debasing fashion in business which spread to the
remotest parts of the country. Instead of satisfaction with
legitimate profits, came a passion for inordinate gains. Then,
too, as values became more and more uncertain, there was no
longer any motive for care or economy, but every motive for
immediate expenditure and present enjoyment. So came upon the
nation the _obliteration of thrift_. In this mania for yielding
to present enjoyment rather than providing for future comfort
were the seeds of new growths of wretchedness: luxury, senseless
and extravagent, set in. This, too, spread as a fashion. To feed
it, there came cheatery in the nation at large and corruption
among officials and persons holding trusts. While men set such
fashions in private and official business, women set fashions of
extravagence in dress and living that added to the incentives to
corruption. Faith in moral considerations, or even in good
impulses, yielded to general distrust. National honor was thought
a fiction cherished only by hypocrites. Patriotism was eaten out
by cynicism."

_"Thus was the history of France logically developed in
obedience to natural laws; such has, to a greater or less degree,
always been the result of irredeemable paper, created according
to the whim or interest of legislative assemblies rather than
based upon standards of value permanent in their nature and
agreed upon throughout the entire world. Such, we may fairly
expect, will always be the result of them until the fiat of the
Almighty shall evolve laws in the universe radically different
from those which at present obtain"_. *86 -Andrew Dickson White,
Fiat Money Inflation In France, (Irvington-on-Hudson, New York:
The Foundation for Economic Education, INC. 1959), p. 106-->109

Regards,
Journeyman


Knallgold (10/18/00; 09:23:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 39313)
Leigh,CavanMan,Trail Guide
Ladies and gentlemen,thank you for your comments!

Leigh,always read your posts,you must be really a women with a golden heart!

CavanMan,why you still ask these questions?Hmm,maybe because it still did not happen,the POG to the moon overnight?Or because the TG stuff just does not fit in our (western) brains?But I tell my friends we are wrong until we are right and then they will admit.

Here I'd like to say,trust your instinct!I too did not for a year,was still clouded by my limited thinking,but now can't deny anymore in the light of the facts which emerge.I don't like to follow someone blindly and want to make my decisions on my own'so it might take some time but I can stand then firmly behind it.Not that I had found the trail on my own,but TrailGuide added something new into my brain.Instinct said : accept it!

Journeyman (10/18/00; 09:21:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 39312)
Triple threat @Aristotle msg#: 39302

Ari,

Your "Chimps, Champs, and Chumps" is a real champ! I'm still smile'n!

And you're right. Of course.

High regards,
Journeyman


Journeyman (10/18/00; 08:54:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 39311)
Gvt. bank-roll doesn't save Hong Kong, Taiwan @Cobra(too), ALL

Yes -- as you say Cobra(too) -- intervention has definite limits:

Hong Kong (Hang Seng) down 2.79%, Taiwan -4.74%.

Also Japan Nikkei225: -3.05%

Facts and rumors are that all three governments intervene in "their" stock markets.

Regards, j.

P.S. This is cleaned-up version of the next J-MAN post. You can ignore it when you see it again!!! Sorry, domestic distraction.


Phoenix (10/18/00; 08:49:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 39310)
Kuwait Sees Oil Demand at 100 MMBOPD in 2010
http://www.slb.com/ba.cfm?baid=1&storyid=109478
Oil Minister Expects World Oil Demand of 100m bpd by 2010

KUWAIT CITY, Oct 17 (AFP via energy24.com) - Kuwait's Oil Minister Sheikh Saud Nasser al-Sabah has said world demand for oil will rise by 25 million bpd, to hit 100 million bpd by 2010, a newspaper has reported.

"World demand for oil is expected to grow by two per cent annually during the coming 20 years," Sheikh Saud said, quoted in Al-Anba daily.

He said that, based on plans to seek the assistance of foreign oil majors to develop the emirate's northern oilfields, Kuwait's production capacity will reach three million bpd in 2005.

Current production capacity is estimated at around 2.2 million bpd and is expected to rise by another 400,000 bpd by the middle of next year after the commissioning of two huge gathering centres.

Kuwait's OPEC production quota was increased to 2.101 million bpd as of October 1.

The $7 billion investment, known as Kuwait Project, aims at doubling the output of four oilfields near the border with Iraq to 900,000 bpd with the help of international oil companies (IOCs).

The project has met with opposition in parliament for fear that the emirate's lifeline may rest in foreign hands.

Sheikh Saud said that no contract has been signed with any foreign company for the project, as the government was awaiting parliament to approve a bill on the issue.

The announcement of a shortlist of IOCs qualified to be invited for the project, which was scheduled for September, was further delayed, but Sheikh Saud said the issue is almost complete.

Reports have indicated that Texaco, Chevron, ExxonMobil, TotalFinaElf, Shell and BP Amoco were selected as the main operator companies. Several other companies were selected as non-operators.

But contrary to what was earlier announced, Sheikh Saud said Kuwait will not accept a consortium by all the IOCs to carry out the project. "No more than two operator companies will be allowed to form a consortium... in order to encourage competition," he said.

The majors are to be paid by a fee per barrel of oil extracted for developing the fields, not through production-sharing agreements.

Foreign oil firms in Kuwait, which holds around ten per cent of global oil reserves, have previously been restricted to technical service agreements.

My comments: This is more aggressive than I see it 90 MMBOPD, but it is very reasonable given the industrialization of China and India alone.


Journeyman (10/18/2000; 8:48:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 39309)
Gvt. bank-roll doesn't save Hong Kong, Taiwan @Cobra(too), ALL

Yes -- as you say Cobra(too) -- intervention has definite limits:

Hong Kong (Hang Seng) down 2.79%, Taiwan -4.74.

Also Japan: Nikkei225

Regards, j.


Phoenix (10/18/2000; 8:42:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 39308)
Slowing 2001 Non-OPEC Growth
http://www.slb.com/ba.cfm?baid=1
Spending Lag to Slow 2001 Non-OPEC Oil Growth

By Richard Valdmanis

NEW YORK, Oct 18 (Reuters) - Despite red hot crude oil prices, oil production growth in non-OPEC countries is expected to slow roughly 55 percent next year as a drought in exploration and production investment catches up with the industry, analysts say.

Production growth outside the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is expected to average barely 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2001, compared to a 1.1 million bpd increase non-OPEC producers are on course for this year, analysts said.

"Low spending in 1998 and 1999 is now making it difficult for countries to increase their production by as much as they want," said Eric Kreil, international analyst for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). "If they could pump more, they certainly would."

Low global oil supplies, the strongest prices in a decade and OPEC's tight hold on production would seem to give the ideal opportunity for oil companies to pump up output in non-OPEC's relatively high-cost areas.

But growth next year will be held back by industry-wide drive to cut back exploration and production spending after oil prices slumped to their lowest level in nearly a quarter of a century just two years ago.

While independent oil companies are now stepping up spending in non-OPEC hotspots such as Angola and Brazil, long lag times between exploration and first commercial output will take a couple of years to translate into badly-needed new oil.

"The previous lack of investment has caught producers flat-footed when they should be producing heavily," said analyst Matthew Simmons of Houston-based Simmons & Co. "

"It has now become very difficult for producers to fight the ferocious decline rates at the major fields, let alone increase production," he said.

Non-OPEC producers are forecast to bring production up to 46 million bpd next year, or 60 percent of global output, slowing from this year's one million bpd growth to 45.5 million bpd, said Merrill Lynch bank in a report.

The International Energy Agency, the Paris-based energy watchdog, pegged next year's non-OPEC output higher at 46.6 million bpd, up 800,000 bpd while the DOE was more conservative with a 600,000 bpd rise to 46.3 million bpd.

While gains of some 300,000 bpd in China should help Asian output grow, the former Soviet Union, the United States, and the North Sea will see little increase, the DOE said.

Much of the spending shortfall comes from supermajors Royal Dutch/Shell and Exxon Mobil determination to cut costs and maximize investor returns.

Their continued caution means mature oil fields in key non-OPEC areas the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, Alaska, Western Canada, the North Sea and South America are not getting the investment needed to stabilise decline rates, analysts say.

While cost-cutting technology has enabled oil companies to bring fields online from previously uneconomic areas, firms are increasingly finding peak production from these fields is lower and briefer than they had expected.

"There could be a down-side surprise in those regions in the coming years," said Simmons.

Some analysts believe, however, that non-OPEC producers could achieve nearer 900,000 bpd of growth next year.

Sarah Emerson, analyst for Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Boston forecasts a 400,000 bpd increase in FSU production in 2001, a 300,000 bpd rise in Brazil, and a slight 25,000 to 50,000 bpd jump in China.

"We have a more optimistic view than some of the others," she said.

My comments: I'd draw your attention to the restated quote from above, "It has now become very difficult for producers to fight the ferocious decline rates at the major fields, let alone increase production," he said.


Phoenix (10/18/2000; 8:39:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 39307)
The Traveler, Welcome
'Tis always nice to see another oil roughneck finding his way to the freedom forum that only wealth retaining commodities provide.

BTW, you're exactly correct with your thoughts on oil financing. As an independent producer, we were subject to those same financial forces at work that would lend on $18 price decks in 1997, but not in 1998, and then in late 1999 when oil was at $25+, only lend at $18 price decks again. It's only been in the last two weeks, that the severe backwardation in oil prices (DEC '01 selling for $5 less than DEC '00) has faded to a reasonable spread.

It's also eminently interesting how oil producers' timing on hedging is bass-ackward. When prices are high, they fail to act quickly enough to recognize a price decline trend and enter into a hedge because they're living in a state of denial. Then after suffering through one of those horrible declines, wishing they had hedged all the way down, the moment prices rise to a moderate level, they act too quickly to enter into a hedge, fighting against the trend and costing their company bigtime dollars. This same company now gets a bad taste of hedging and doesn't want to enter into another hedge at the right time to protect the downside. The viscious cycle then repeats. ;-) Talk to most independents and they have yet to make any money at hedging their production because they can't time the market and control their emotions (fear/greed).

I've begun to think that I may open my own bank in a few years and advertise that consumers' money is backed by personal oil and personal gold. ;-)

BTW, I've reformulated by PV 10 formulas to account for $50 oil in 2003, $100 oil in $2006, and $200 oil in 2010. I'm probably conservative too. Of course, I can't borrow against it or receive dollars for it today from a buyer, but I'm quite certain that the era of cheap oil is over.

Fly from the Fire,
Phoenix


CoBra(too) (10/18/2000; 8:01:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 39306)
Looks like the Interventionist's are losing Control!
All markets tanking madly - who's in charge of stopping the carnage at the end of the Clinton era? PPI + 0,9 and CPI + 0,5 can't be argued away anymore, it seems.
Even Spot POG up 1,90 - Great day over in rainy Austria - cb2

Hard assets...Easy access (10/18/2000; 7:57:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 39305)
Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. - - - (800) 869-5115
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html
When company stocks go *BUMP* in the night,
or stumble and bloody their nose on the floor,
The man with some gold in his pocket just might
not grumble or worry 'cept to wish he'd got more.

wolavka (10/18/2000; 7:53:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 39304)
aristotle
I will address your post at end of trading day

wolavka (10/18/2000; 7:35:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 39303)
sandbagging/ front running
What a scam

Aristotle (10/18/2000; 7:24:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 39302)
Chimps, Champs, and Chumps
I enjoyed the brief detour of the forum on Monday (and some previous days) into the realm of personality types -- with the Gold-related hypothesis that Gold advocates are most likely of the *NT* type. Dabbling with a linked on-line testing page revealed me to be distinctly a type INTP --for whatever that's worth to anyone keeping score.

Which brings me to my point. Any population can be divided and subdivided yet further based on the presence or absence of any given trait. In one rough cut we can focus on those who think independently about monetary affairs, and the remainder will be those who just go along with the flow. I call this latter group the "chimps" in this post because they see no evil, hear no evil, and speak no evil regarding the dollar, and are contentedly guided by the credo "Monkey see, monkey do." They follow the directions of their neighbors, whom at this point in time have been conditioned to consider Gold in low esteem. Obviously, this post is not written for the chimps--they aren't visitors to this forum.

Of the group of thinkers who see the problems with the dollar and the special merits to be found in Gold, we can divide them further into the physical "champs" and the paper "chumps." The champs are the ones who stand behind their thoughts by acquiring the Metal that they support in principle. This post isn't written for the champs, either -- they're already on the right track.

Hello, chumps. You guys comprise the sad group that is "so close and yet so far." Your good independent thinking has steered you toward the merits of Gold, yet you have undermined yourself in an attempt to capture additional paper through leverage based on the proclivity of me and my fellow champs to drive up Gold prices through our wise demand for Metal. Sorry. It doesn't work that way--as I (and many others here) have explained time and again, and most recently this past weekend.

What you chumps fail to recognize is that the Gold itself is the objective and desirable monetary wealth--as a safe and meaningful alternative to dollars which are subject to devaluation and collapse. And most importantly, you also fail to recognize the true role of your leveraged paper gold (futures) within the Gold market. The crux of this entire post is contained in the next two sentences, so open your mind and think objectively, setting aside briefly your indignance that words on a computer monitor have called you a chump.

Long positions in paper gold are NOT used, as you might like to think, as a "fire insurance policy" among institutions having vested interests in the status quo, whereby such a long derivative position would be expected (by you) to compensate them for rising Gold prices and weaker dollars. Instead, these institutions use the offering of paper gold (and its influence on price discovery) as a WET BLANKET to keep Gold from catching fire in the first place.(!)

By allowing yourself to miss the big picture, you are being played for a chump. The tragedy is not that you are throwing your paper currency away on paper gold, but rather that you approached so close to the brink of truth, and yet will likely have nothing material to show for your journey and efforts. It's not too late to stop beating your dead horse and take your place on the growing bandwagon headed down the Gold trail--that is, if you're not too consumed by your own pride and determination to stay with your horse until it regains its breath. My prediction is that the vultures will have your flesh too, because you'll let them.

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle

SHIFTY (10/18/2000; 7:13:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 39301)
Aristotle
You are correct with 56 signers.

$hifty


TheStranger (10/18/2000; 6:54:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 39300)
Inflation Update
I show gold up 50 cents. Please forgive the pun, but you don't suppose people are finally starting to get it, do you?

Originally, Wall Street dismissed rising inflation because it seemed concentrated in oil and tobacco, two commodities which were heavily influenced by politics. But, as demand for petroleum reaches levels where even OPEC can't keep up, this argument falls flat on its face.

Once again, when excessive amounts of a currency are created, buying power is lost.

wolavka (10/18/2000; 6:53:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 39299)
gold market
Morning range, criminal politics at its' best.

TheStranger (10/18/2000; 6:32:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 39298)
CPI Up .5%
Mama mia! Multo inflazione!

Aristotle (10/18/2000; 6:08:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 39297)
SteveH -- "13 signers of the Declaration of Independence" ???
I don't mean to nit-pick, but I seem to recall no less than 56 signers.

Sorry. Off topic, but wanted to set the record straight. Next post will be Gold-related.

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle

Journeyman (10/18/2000; 6:04:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 39296)
A reluctant defense -- to set the record straight only @Zenidea msg#: 39288

I don't know about current situation, but the main reason the U.S. Government, those paragons of fiscal responsibility (who's accounting arms can't account for what happend to about a third of the US's own budget) refused to pay "their" due --- until the U.N. had a chief accounting office to keep track of what happened to the money. That's right, until a few years ago when you gave money to the U.N. and later asked what it had been spent on, NO ONE KNEW AND THERE WASN'T EVEN A HONCHO TO ASK.

Finally the U.S. Congress refused to send them any money till the situation was remedied. The U.N. bureaucracy of course resisted -- who want's to give up control of a giant slush-fund that enables you to buy yourself and cronies hookers, booze, free travel and accomodations --- and literally who knows what --- "for free." If I remember, they finally appointed a chief accounting officer -- but I would appoint an innumerate (or a crony) if I was them --- and little else happened.

Anyone know the current status of U.N "accountability?"

Regards,
Journeyman


nickel62 (10/18/2000; 6:02:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 39295)
More ramifications of the manipulation implicit in the US strong dollar poliicy
Your said: "In concert with other G-7 Central Banks, the yen carry trade was implemented. Thus chosen ones borrowed in yen at 1%, converted the yen into those mountains of dollars that kept piling up overseas and next bought risk-free US Government obligations at 6%. They then pledged the obligations to the yen loan. With a falling yen and falling bond yields due to incrementally heavier demand for bonds, capital gains were assured along with the net interest spread of 5%. This play works identically for the gold carry trade which was implemented in 1996 by the bullion banks. Also note that foreign CB holdings of US debt kept in custody at the FED has tripled to nearly $800 billion in just the last six years."

It is very important to understand that here you have the beginning point(actually the continuation point) of the doing away of the free market mechanisms in favor of an investment policy directed by the US treasury that is using the nations savings controled by supposedly independent mutual funds, pension funds, and investment advisors and coopting their responsibility to their clients to protect their assets by "leading" the money managers to the path you desired to achieve your goals. The reality of this is that the free market mechanism has been supplanted by a manipulation of the entire capital markets that massively rewards those that played along and destroyed those that tried to fight it.

The key here is to understand that this action did away with the normal concept of prudence and responsible action for all money managers.

If the markets were controlled by the secret actions of the few who were in the know of the Treasury strategy then they were the ones who would prosper and gain more assets and those not initiated would be driven out of the business.


The true cost though is in the leading of millions of uninformed savers who in the creation of the bull market fraud had been converted to "buy and hold" investors in their 401ks and their IRA s etc. and naively think it is a market of normal proportions and risks.

The truth is they have been used as pawns in a shell game of political motivation and are about to be gutted of their retirement assets by a return to more normal valuations.

Meanwhile the wall street insiders who perpatrated this fraud are running for the Senate, The House and Rubin even had the audacity to float trial balloons about himself as Vice Presidental running mate for Gore.


As we all know knowledge is power and the very concrete and clear explanation of the stock and bond market co-option and rigging that has taken place is the only protection from this situation.



RossL (10/18/2000; 5:53:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 39294)
Question
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_00/noland101700.html

In the commentary by Noland (Tice), a transaction was described where an institution provided 90% liquidity loans for grantees of large stock and options and the loans were guaranteed by delta hedging. Question is: how long can losses be covered up on this trade before the loans have to be marked to market? Can the loans be carried on the books of the institution essentially forever while they are underwater, just like the Japanese banks do?


HI - HAT (10/18/2000; 5:31:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 39293)
Wrath and Ruin
Reversion to the mean can encompass a time frame larger than for instance a 100 years.

Just so, as a Grand Super Cycle, the entire 500+ years
of the modern Industrial Age progression would seem to be in play.

That is why , truly this time will be different. The grand debt dream and asset gimmick schemes have propelled mankind
to great heights. Accomodating everything from 125% mortgages to pet rocks.

Now everything must pass through an all encompassing paradigm shifting fire.

The bitterness of the Grapes of Wrath, can only be experianced if said grapes are even available. What will be judged as having great value will inflate, likewise what has little wealth value will deflate.

I for one am not smart enouph to gauge what such a large time frames Reversion to the mean will look like.

auspec (10/18/2000; 5:24:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 39292)
beesting/Mine
Gotta be brief, work calls. To answer your Q re my $.16 mining shares: it sells for this price because it is a "shot in the dark" even with this extraordinary level of mineralization. That is my point! Please put this in perspective with what you are calling a "bonafied" mine.
Q for you- Why should I buy your shares, with your "paper gold backed money", when I can just go buy my own gold outright? Hint- it is not this mine which would make a difference {most likely}.
Best to beesting

wolavka (10/18/2000; 4:26:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 39291)
Real estate
This mkt is going to get hammered. alot of great buys soon.

alot of money to be made in the tearing down of a civilization.

Redistribute the wealth to those in need not the scumbags of deceit.

wolavka (10/18/2000; 4:00:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 39290)
Mark to Market
Game over!

Accountability/ responsibility!

SteveH (10/18/2000; 3:52:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 39289)
Traveler
Observation. In your discussion, you talked of the carry trades as an attempt to delay default. Not to point out the obvious but isn't the act of delay that you discuss also causing the inevitable defaults to be much worse than had corrective actions been taken by leadership who sensed a problem?

Zenidea (10/18/2000; 3:50:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 39288)
Whats in a handshake ?

US fails to pay UN debt
From AP
18oct00

17:00 (AEDT) THE chief UN
financial officer has painted a
bleak picture of UN finances,
saying the organisation was
$US3 billion ($A5.8 billion) short
of what it was owed - a great
part of that due to unpaid US
bills.

In a report to the UN budget
committee,
Undersecretary-General for
Management Joseph Connor
said yesterday the shortfall
meant that the organisation
was essentially a year behind in
collecting its bills and that the
result was undermining the
financial stability of the
organisation.

Total UN bills are significantly
higher this year, primarily
because of the increase in UN
peacekeeping costs with
enormous missions in Sierra
Leone, East Timor and Kosovo.

Costs for the UN tribunals for the former Yugoslavia and Rwanda are
also higher.

Connor's report said the United States was responsible for 61
percent of the outstanding UN regular budget, peacekeeping and UN
tribunal bills, which amounted to $US3.094 billion ($A5.97 billion) as
of September 30.

Deputy US Ambassador Donald Hays told the committee that
Washington anticipated paying all of its 2000 regular budget dues
before the end of the year, and that it would increase its
peacekeeping payment.

He acknowledged that the US policy had put the United Nations in a
"straitjacket" but said there was no way around US congressional
conditions for releasing money Washington owes the organisation.

Congress approved legislation last year that would pay back $US926
million ($A1.79 billion) of the $US1.8 billion ($A3.47 billion) in US
arrears.

But the legislation said the full cheque would only be sent after the
General Assembly agrees to reduce the US share of the
administrative budget from 25 percent to 22 percent and the
peacekeeping budget from about 30 percent to 25 percent.

The United States has been lobbying the 188 other UN members to
agree to those conditions. The European Union, which would have to
pick up a chunk of the US slack if it reduces its payments, has been
less than enthusiastic about the US demands.

In a speech to the committee, French Ambassador Jean-David
Levitte, speaking on behalf of the EU, sharply criticised the United
States and suggested that the United Nations should take into
account its record when awarding UN contracts and making
appointments to high-level UN posts.

"No organisation can function without a severe crisis if it was
dependent on funds that reached it, in the best scenario, a year
late," Levitte said.

SteveH (10/18/2000; 3:45:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 39287)
Traveler
Good post.

So what is the scenario if oil is the driver and the dollar can longer be counted on as a reserve currency. Crunch those numbers for us, would ya?

SteveH (10/18/2000; 3:40:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 39286)
Dollar
Take out a one dollar bill and look at it.

The one dollar bill you're looking at first came off
the presses in 1957 is its present design. This
so-called paper money is in fact a cotton and linen
blend, with red and blue minute silk fibers running
through it. It is actually material.

We've all washed it without it falling apart. A
special blend of ink is used, the contents we will
never know. It is overprinted with symbols and then it
is starched to make it water resistant and pressed to
give it that nice crisp look. If you look on the front
of the bill, you will see the United States Treasury
Seal. On the top you will see the scales for balance
-- a balanced budget.

In the center you have a carpenter's T-square, a tool
used for an even cut.

Underneath is the Key to the United States Treasury.
That's all pretty easy to figure out, but what is on
the back of that dollar bill is something we should
all know.

If you turn the bill over, you will see two circles.
Both circles, together, comprise the Great Seal of the
United States. The First Continental Congress
requested that Benjamin Franklin and a group of men
come up with a Seal. It took them four years to
accomplish this task and another two years to get it
approved.

If you look at the left hand circle, you will see a
Pyramid. Notice the face is lighted and the western
side is dark. This country was just beginning. We had
not begun to explore the west or decided what we could
do for Western Civilization.

The Pyramid is uncapped, again signifying that we were
not even close to being finished. Inside the capstone
you have the all-seeing eye, an ancient symbol for
divinity. It was Franklin's belief that one man
couldn't do it alone, but a group of men, with the
help of God, could do anything.

"IN GOD WE TRUST" is on this currency. The Latin above
the pyramid, ANNUIT COEPTIS, means "God has favored
our undertaking." The Latin below the pyramid, NOVUS
ORDO SECLORUM, means "a new order has begun." At the
base of the pyramid is the Roman Numeral for 1776.

If you look at the right-hand circle, and check it
carefully, you will learn that it is on every National
Cemetery in the United States. It is also on the
Parade of Flags Walkway at the Bushnell, Florida
National Cemetery and is the centerpiece of most
hero's monuments. Slightly modified, it is the seal of
the President of the United States and it is always
visible whenever he speaks, yet no one knows what the
symbols mean.

The Bald Eagle was selected as a symbol for victory
for two reasons: first, he is not afraid of a storm;
he is strong and he is smart enough to soar above it.
Secondly, he wears no material crown. We had just
broken from the King of England.

Also, notice the shield is unsupported. This country
can now stand on its own. At the top of that shield
you have a white bar signifying congress, a unifying
factor. We were coming together as one nation. In the
Eagle's beak you will read,"E PLURIBUS UNUM", meaning
"one nation from many people."

Above the Eagle you have thirteen stars representing
the thirteen original colonies, and any clouds of
misunderstanding rolling away. Again, we were coming
together as one. Notice what the Eagle holds in his
talons. He holds an olive branch and arrows. This
country wants peace, but we will never be afraid to
fight to preserve peace. The Eagle always wants to
face the olive branch, but in time of war, his gaze
turns toward the arrows.

They say that the number 13 is an unlucky number.
This is almost a worldwide belief. You will usually
never see a room numbered 13, or any hotels or motels
with a 13th floor. But, think about this: 13 original
colonies, 13 signers of the Declaration of
Independence, 13 stripes on our flag, 13 steps on the
Pyramid, 13 letters in the Latin above, 13 letters in
E Pluribus Unum", 13 stars above the Eagle, 13 plumes
of feathers on each span of the Eagle's wing, 13 bars
on that shield, 13 leaves on the olive branch, 13
fruits, and if you look closely, 13 arrows. And for
minorities: the 13th Amendment.

I always ask people, "Why don't you know this?"

Your children don't know this and their history
teachers don't know this. Too many veterans have given
up too much to ever let the meaning fade.

Many veterans remember coming home to an America that
didn't care. Too many veterans never came home at all.

Tell everyone what is on the back of the one dollar
bill and what it stands for, because nobody else will.

~ Source Unknown ~


nickel62 (10/18/2000; 3:35:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 39285)
The Traveler
Your comment below is a good point of discussion to highlight the critical insight that Rubin had in how to manipulate the world financal markets to get the strong dollar he wanted.

"The Rubin/Clinton strong dollar gambit began in April, 1995 in response to the rapid fall of the US$ from 100 yen to 79 yen. (Some might recall that the dollar bought 240 yen in 1984. A year later, the weak dollar gambit of Baker/Reagan sank the dollar in accordance with the Sept, 1985 Plaza Accord). The dollar was also falling hard against the German mark and Swiss franc in early 1995. And don't forget that the "curse of the Sexenio" was threatening to crater Mexico and CETES holders on Wall Street in early 1995. This dollar downdraft threatened to bankrupt the already weak export driven economy of Japan (the Nikkei was already down over 60% from its 1989 high) and stifle European exports to the US. In short, a global meltdown was percolating."

One of the reasons that the US dollar was falling was the correct perception of the inability of the US to live within its means and the burgeoning interest bill on the treasury debt which was growing so fast it was about to eclipse the ability of the Income Tax to pay it. Therefore necessitating dipping into the Social Security surplus funds to pay interest on the current debt. Not a very palpable option politically. So Rubin who as a trader for years knew that if he could "lead" the money flows back toward the dollar he would be able to direct these flows into the US stock and bond markets creating a virtuous circle of booming stock prices and lower interest rates both accomplished by the flood of money he could attract to the US by a manipulation of the currency higher against ,the mark, swiss franc, yen and of course gold. The rather questionably legal use of the Economic STabalization Fund to save the large US institutional investors who got caught in the Mexico collapse takes on new meaning in this light. It was and is the power of the ESF and the US Treasury to deliver on its promises that allows them to continue to lead international capital flows where they want them to go to accomplish their objectives. I wonder if Rubin had sucked the US institutions into the Mexican Ceres market and by showing them that he would come to their aid even over Congress objection was establishing the necessary trust to allow him to be able to continue to implement his "Strong Dollar Policy" that we are discussing? In light of this the whining about the lack of accountability and "moral hazard" that he has been making public noises about becomes a little hypocritical since he was the first mover in creating much of what he bemoans.

Netking (10/18/00; 03:22:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 39284)
Global meltdown delayed (again)
Looks like the "Y2K Global Meltdowners" who jumped on the "Middle East's about to burn to the ground" scenario were wrong again. Expect volatility, & plenty of it & for those prepared to go contrary to market opinion at the right time good gains at the reward.
Really a time for more focus on the Yen, Euro & the USD.




nickel62 (10/18/00; 03:20:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 39283)
Market Capitalization is really the bottom line in stock investing
In this type of market where there has been almost unbridled optimism and a sea of international liquidity one of the things to watch when you are evaluating the risk in a stock investment is the number of shares outstanding. The investment community has often been working overtime pumping more and more of these shares out there in a bull market and as the bear takes hold fundamentals begin to have a purpose again. Intel has almost 7 Billion shares outstanding which means $35 isn't cheap and $15 might not be either. GE has 9.9 Billion shares outstanding and that means $12/share is doable before this thing is over very doable maybe half that, it depends on how much these masters of earnings creation and manipulation have been cooking the books. Take a look now while these values are still there so you can protect yourself from the plunge once the public realizes that the so called wall street professionals are neither looking out for your interests nor very cognizant of the above numbers. Doubt it? Ask an analyst how many shares are outstanding in the stock he follows and his opinion of the relevence of the number. If he scoffs, you now you have a complete bozo. You will meet many.

nickel62 (10/18/00; 03:11:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 39282)
The Stranger
Thanks for your excellent post. I wanted to throwmy two cents into the stock market discussion. Those who own IBM and are feeling some pain today as part of the air flows out have been helped by The Strangers analysis to maybe not be all that interested in keeping many of these over valued "blue chips". GE alone is so overvalued that a major correction from ridiculous PE of 46 to a too expensive 23 times highly suspect "earnings" would take almost $250 Billion off the market cap value of someone. I mention this because I had just finished doing an analysis of GE when The Stranger made his point that the total margin debt in the market was $250 Billion, a collossal number, but as you can see one that could be easily wiped out if this one sacred cow(and owner of Bubblevision,CNBC) were to come a little closer to reality. There are of course still hundreds of equally overvalued stocks out there, each preposterous on any true financial basis and heavily owned in everyones 401k, IRA or whatever.

nickel62 (10/18/00; 02:58:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 39281)
The Traveler
Thanks for your excellent post. The analysis is very helpfull.

nickel62 (10/18/00; 02:54:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 39280)
Simply Me , I enjoyed your rant!
But wasn't shure which characteristic you had confused with "F". I take it you are actually an INFP and in your piece you were talking about "P"s compared to "J" .
Which is a constant line of comparison since we are always in each others faces so much. I am a pure "P" and it has driven both my wives and my kids nuts. I kind of enjoy it.

Simply Me (10/18/00; 02:27:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 39279)
Welcome to Sir Traveler!!
I'm sure you'll receive a proper welcome in the morning.
'Till then, one of the 'creatures of the night' extends greetings. Come sit by the fire, warm yourself and doze till the rest of Golden Court arrives with the sun.
I'm sure your post will earn you a feast, since knowledge is the coin of the realm here.

simply

The Invisible Hand (10/18/00; 02:21:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 39278)
holding bonds
Welcome The Traveler,
Hello tg,

You're expecting a deflation.
Does this mean that the only asset you're holding besides gold are AAA (government) bonds?

Simply Me (10/18/00; 01:18:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 39277)
Sheesh!
I'm an INFP not an INTF. Can't trust the memory anymore.
I give up.
G'night.
simply


tg (10/18/00; 00:59:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 39276)
The Traveller - super post
agree with your sentiments whole heartly. As i've also said in a previous post, property prices will tumble as well as other assets in a deflationary spiral, especially if one forsees a credit crunch, one of which Greenspan averted in 98 with the demise of LTCM.
Credit is far too easy to obtain and leverage of up to 90% and sometimes greater is given to property investments. A devaluation of property prices of up to 70% as was the case in the 70s credit crunch is a very real scenario.
My only concern is whether gold will drop in value as well, but still be relatively a much better performing asset.

Simply Me (10/18/00; 00:40:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 39275)
OOoops! Screwed up my rant!
Second line in paragraph 7 should read:

"But then...There are NO "F"s HERE! Nobody wants to admit they're an "F", that's why they're screwed up!"

Broke all 3 rules of writing! 1)Edit 2)Rewrite 3)Spellcheck!
simply



Simply Me (10/18/00; 00:26:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 39274)
Cinton's Flaming Bags of Poo/Screwed-up F's/& Belated Congrats
In January, President George W. Bush is going to move into the White House. On his first trip to the front door, he's going to find three flaming bags on the front porch. "Yikes! Put out the fire!" STOMP..STOMP..STOMP...Stomp...stomp...EEEEoooouuuuuu!

The new Pres. is going to find himself up to his knees in
Oil S***, Economy S***, and MiddleEast War S***. And it's gonna STICK and STINK worse than Skunk spray if he's not ready with a quick antidote!

Clinton's been working on those bags of s*** for 8 years!
And there may be more in the closet. 8 long years of short-term self-centered planning. Because, just like in a game of Pool..."If you can't make the shot, make sure you leave the cue ball in a bad spot for the other guy."

Now, George Dub-a-yuh probably knows about most of the flaming bags of poo he's going to find on the White House porch. I just hope Dick Cheney and George, Sr. are ready with shovels and deoderant!

By the by, for those who are following the M/B Personality line. I'm an INTF. And contrary to the opinion of at least one poster (sorry, don't remember who), not all "F"s are screwed up. But, "F"s do tend to be screwed up if they are trying to be "J"s. "F"s tend to think in words and pictures. Numbers are harder for an "F" to grasp, but not impossible.

"F"s excell at seeing the "big picture", and are therefore good at communicating it to others. Therefore they are good negotiators, peace makers, teachers and creative writers. I've been a writer all my life. At various times I've worked in creative, marketing, technical and journalistic capacities. Communication skills are getting rare these days. It's not hard to find work.

My advice to screwed-up "F"s is, "Stick to what you're good at and hire someone trustworthy to do the "J" work!"
But then...There are NO "J"s HERE! Nobody wants to admit they're an "F", that's why they're screwed up!

Sir HBM and Sir RossL. Thanks for all your work on the graphs. For those of us who think in pictures instead of numbers, they're invaluable tools!

CONGRATULATIONS to all winners of the lovely Gold and Silver prizes in USAGOLD's Triple-Header Contest! I don't have a list of names but I read the posts and every one was elegant and succinct! I'll bet you kept poor TownCrier up nights trying to decide which award to give to whom! And, my thanks to USAGOLD for the opportunity to participate.

Thanks to ALL for letting me read their thoughts on Gold/Oil/Economics/Life.

simply




beesting (10/18/00; 00:06:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 39273)
Sir justamereBear.
Will get with you tomorrow.....too sleepy now.....beesting.

The Traveler (10/18/00; 00:04:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 39272)
(No Subject)
Greetings to all. To earn my meal from the Forum's table, I shall entertain you. Decide later if I am the court jester.

The charts offered at the beginning of today's forum do tell a sobering tale. Several of the relationships illustrated therein are worthy of expanded commentary.

From a strictly mathematical analysis, the three charts of the inter-relationship of the Dow, oil and gold conclusively demonstrate that the long-term equilibrium ratio for gold to oil is 20. (Gold at $350 – until 1997, Greenspan's often quoted "fair value" POG - and oil at $17.50). This corresponds well to the official $35 POG and $1.75 WTI that was in effect for decades prior to the peak in domestic production in 1968 and the closure of the Gold Window by Treasury Secretary (and Texan) John Connally and President Nixon in 1971. Flip the ratio and it is .05 – the median value of oil to gold from 1989 through 1999 as shown on the chart of the Dow/gold to Dow/oil ratio.

Observe that in 1995 something began to upset the flat-as-a-board Dow/gold ratio of 10 and the flat Dow/oil ratio of 200. The Dow/oil ratio was below 200 in late 1990 due to high oil prices and a Dow scared by the Gulf War. The war also explains the spike in the 1990 Dow/gold to Dow/oil ratio. What happened?

The Rubin/Clinton strong dollar gambit began in April, 1995 in response to the rapid fall of the US$ from 100 yen to 79 yen. (Some might recall that the dollar bought 240 yen in 1984. A year later, the weak dollar gambit of Baker/Reagan sank the dollar in accordance with the Sept, 1985 Plaza Accord). The dollar was also falling hard against the German mark and Swiss franc in early 1995. And don't forget that the "curse of the Sexenio" was threatening to crater Mexico and CETES holders on Wall Street in early 1995. This dollar downdraft threatened to bankrupt the already weak export driven economy of Japan (the Nikkei was already down over 60% from its 1989 high) and stifle European exports to the US. In short, a global meltdown was percolating.

In concert with other G-7 Central Banks, the yen carry trade was implemented. Thus chosen ones borrowed in yen at 1%, converted the yen into those mountains of dollars that kept piling up overseas and next bought risk-free US Government obligations at 6%. They then pledged the obligations to the yen loan. With a falling yen and falling bond yields due to incrementally heavier demand for bonds, capital gains were assured along with the net interest spread of 5%. This play works identically for the gold carry trade which was implemented in 1996 by the bullion banks. Also note that foreign CB holdings of US debt kept in custody at the FED has tripled to nearly $800 billion in just the last six years.

The primary effect of the strong dollar policy was to make America the importer of last resort and to generally lower interest rates globally. Lower rates postponed debt defaults and sparked big moves in the equity markets. A win-win, yes?

Now take the Dow/gold ratio of 10 and the Dow/oil ratio of 200 and play with the math for a glimpse of things to come as the three variables REGRESS TO THE MEAN. Warning – this glimpse is valid only if you believe the US$ will retain its reserve status. Similarly, this view is valid only if you believe that Another's / FOA's / ORO's Free Gold Market will NOT be allowed to develop.

If the Dow is the driving factor of the inter-relationship, to hold at Dow 8,000, oil should hover around $40 and gold should zoom to around $800. To hold at Dow 6,000, oil need only decline 15% to $30 as gold doubles to hit $600. If the Dow recovers and advances to 36,000 (as Glasman wrote), oil would be near $180 and gold would be $3,600.

If gold is the driving factor and it holds at the SDR peg of $270, then oil should fall over time to $13.50 and the Dow should sink to 2,700. If gold breaks the peg and goes to AG's $350, then oil drops into its historical trading range around $17.50 and the Dow should crater to 3,500.

If oil is the driving factor and it holds at $34, then gold should zoom soon to $680 while the Dow slides to 6,800. With oil at $40, gold should bob around $800 while the DOW stops bleeding at 8,000.

So, you ask, which is the driving factor? Oil, plain and simple. We fought the Gulf War over OIL according to Secretary of State James Baker. We are in Bosnia and Albania protecting the Moslems to show the Moslem world that we don't favor Christian Serbs over them. Every President from Nixon on has been desperately trying to broker a peace between the Arabs/PLO and Israel. Why? So that the western world can continue its high standard of living that the hydrocarbon age has produced. Did you hoard gasoline on 12-31-00?

Next…….

Refer to the Dow/gold chart offered at Golden Sextant that covers 90 years. By drawing a straight line from the 1929 Dow/gold high through the 1965 high, the line perfectly extends to the 1999 Dow/gold high. The time period from high to high is 35 years. Thus when the next cycle high is reached in 2035, the Dow/gold ratio should reach 53.

Remember this well since it is often said: The hard lessons learned in your youth can be your advantage when your hair is gray. It's a generational phenomenon. Perhaps this partially explains why FOA is such a capable Trail Guide (I'm smiling).

Trail Guide – I believe we've had lunch together at the Houston Club as guests of our friend from The Woodlands. We talked about his early days in Wise County and the cat crackers off Texas Avenue.

Next…….

I produced oil at the wellhead for $16.19 in 12-97 only to see the paper markets drive the physical price down to $8.61 by 12-98. Yes, the paper oil market drove the physical market down despite the FACT that supply and demand were within 3% of being balanced. (See Matthew Simmons’ website for further analysis).

By now, the borrowing base of many independent producers (both public and private ones) was over advanced and loans made on $16-$18 WTI price decks went into default. Panicked banks encouraged their borrowers to sell producing properties to "deep pockets" in order to pay down the loan balance and thus bring the collateral base back into formula. To their regret, many complied and then watched the price – suddenly - march higher.

When the price of WTI recovered to $18, the paper market pushers scared producers into forward sales at $18 or so with the emotional argument that "You don't want to go through that again do you?" By 12-99, I produced oil at the wellhead for $24.00.

With the "deep pockets" now owning cheaply bought physical (producing wells) plus paper barrels at $18 or so, it was time to ramp up the price. Today, the field posting is $34.

This financial engineering has direct correlation to the much discussed paper and physical gold markets. For example, for those looking for leverage to increasing gold prices through gold mining shares, observe that the shares of large independents (pure price plays since they lack transportation, refinery and marketing operations like the majors) are trading at 30% to 40% DISCOUNTS to their PV 10 Net Asset Values. Said differently, despite oil being in a bull stampede towards $40, the NAV of the shares only reflects a $22 to $24 price of oil.

Lastly…….

With due respect to Trail Guide's very old and shrewd investor, the coming severe deflation will sink the Dow for a decade or more. As credit collapses globally and defaults rise rapidly, collateral sales will send financial assets and (most) hard assets spiraling downward in value. Gold will hold, oil will slip but real estate values will crater due to the lack of 90% financing on new purchases and to constant collateral sales which will create still lower market comps.

Sorry for the long post and late arrival…….

Black Gold and Yellow Gold – the only true wealth worth physically possessing.





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