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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/18/1999
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
View Yesterday's Discussion.
ORO
(11/18/99; 23:53:58MDT - Msg ID:19403)
Peter Asher
I am of the same mind regarding the 3 Ms. (stooges?)
Ulysses
(11/18/99; 23:48:09MDT - Msg ID:19402)
Social Security Trust Fund
http://www.usagold.com
Anyone. Why doesn't the SSTF buy gold instead of worthless nonmarketable US securities?
Peter Asher
(11/18/99; 23:32:04MDT - Msg ID:19401)
Money Supply
The fact of M-1 & M-2 dropping while M-3 expands, could be the result of more FRN's in circulation due to Y2K withdrawals. That would lower the balances in M-1 and M-2 checking and savings, while requiring a nine fold increase in Fed funds to replace the lost fractionalization.
Am I making sense here?
Ulysses
(11/18/99; 23:29:39MDT - Msg ID:19400)
Chinese Govt- Gandalf
http://www.usagold.com
I would trust them as far as I could throw them.Witness Asia Pacific Minerals and how they got ripped off.
Peter Asher
(11/18/99; 23:24:50MDT - Msg ID:19399)
Hey koan!!
Welcome back, I too have been AFK for awhile, big change going on. There was no problem with Huxley, but what were we talking about? Found that economic epic poem finally, but it needs some work. I have missed our "late night watch" philosophy conversations. Since the Gold breakout and pull back, it's been real nuts and bolts (and confusion) here. Speaking of which, I'll be back in a bit on the Money Supply.
Gandalf the White
(11/18/99; 22:57:18MDT - Msg ID:19398)
Don't get tricked by the date ! This is HOT and interesting !
Press Release (5/11/1999)
(This is Nov. 5. 1999, and not normal American format.)
(Tricky inscrutable bamboo curtain !)
(That is for you, Felix the Cat.)
<;-)
Professionals Believe Deregulating China Gold Market
Imminent And Essential
The"'99 China Gold Economic Forum", organized by the World Gold Council(WGC), the National Economic Research institute (NERJ), Development Research Center of the State Council of P.R.C., and the Financial Research Bureau of the People's Bank of China, was held in Beijing on 4-5 November. Over 120 key representatives from central banks, gold mining companies, the gold jewellery trade and financial institutes from China nationwide and abroad attended the two-day conference. While the conference covered a series of topics including the changing role of gold in the global monetary system, case studies of gold market reforms in South Africa and India etc., the most heated discussions concentrated on suggested directions for China's gold market reforms.
In fact, one of the main objectives for calling this gold conference was to present the results of an independent research project entitled: "Deregulating China's gold market" commissioned by the World Gold Council to the authorities and trade.
"The World Gold Council has always been dedicated to promoting an ideal environment for the development of gold markets around the world. The China gold market has always been under the strict control of the government. But in recent years, the government has adopted various reform measures with the objective of gradually deregulating the market. However, the China gold market is unique in many aspects. No previous market case studies can serve as a perfect role model for China. And mapping out practical steps for opening reforms is an extremely difficult and challenging task. Thus, the Council commissioned research from distinctive professionals. Based on successful case studies of foreign market reforms, they studied crucial elements applicable to China, given her unique market circumstances and reform progress. The ultimate aim is to investigate and present a scientific and practical reform proposal to the gold policy management officials," said Mr. Kerr Cruikshanks, Corporate Director of the WGC.
The Council entrusted the National Economic Research institute of the China Reform Foundation to form a special research team to work on the proposal led by the acclaimed Chinese economist Professor Fan Gang. The report, entitled "China's Gold Market: Reform and Deregulating - Some Basic Thoughts and Suggested Directions", was the result of months of dedicated study and hard work by the research team.
The report consists of 4 parts
Part 1 - analyses the necessity and conditions for reforming China's gold production and trading system. It lists various factors that point to the inevitability of reform and the necessary conditions for achieving it. -
Part 2 - reviews the historic evolution of China's gold production and trading system analyses various problems afflicting the gold producers and fundamental principles governing the reform process. The section also elaborates on the necessary assistance and compensation for the producers as the market forces start to prevail.
Part 3 - discusses first several crucial problems for the market opening, and suggests a three-phased scenario. It also deals with issues pertaining to the establishment of the gold exchange market and market supervision.
Part 4 - explores the functional changes within the central bank in the context of an open gold market and sets out the government management framework during the transitional period as well as after the new system is well established.
Acclaimed Chinese economist Professor Fan Gang said that he believed conditions for reforming and deregulating China's gold market were approaching maturity. In the process of achieving the long-term goal, it was most essential that the endeavor proceeded gradually in stages. The objectives must be kept consistent and conducted in a patient and systematic manner.
"The state-unified purchase and allocation system severely stifles the operational initiatives of gold producers, manufacturers and retailers, and places a heavy burden on government authorities. It was recognized that the existing system would be very difficult to carry on, despite the complexities in sorting out and balancing various interest groups involved in the reform and opening up process. We are convinced that reform is the only way out, and reform could only bring benefit to all in the end," remarked Dr. Liu Shi Jing, team leader of the research project and general report author.
The research report gives a practical proposal on a three-phased scenario to deregulate China's gold market. The first stage is the establishment of a gold exchange market to gradually replace the central bank's monopoly over gold purchase and allocations. Domestic gold price is to be set by the gold exchange market in line with the international gold price. Target goals for this first stage should be achieved within a 2-year period. The second stage is the complete opening of the domestic market, when gold products will be available to individual citizens, who can hold, buy and sell gold products, for the purpose of saving and investment. The third stage is direct linking to the international market, with the removal of the ban on gold imports and exports. The domestic market becomes simply an active component of the international market.
The report also analyses issues relating to setting up a gold exchange market, the importance of good market supervision and the changing role of the central bank.
Regarding the future status of gold in the national reserves, the report states that "gold will continue to play a significant role in national reserves in the foreseeable future. The stabilizing nature of gold remains an important tool in the hand of governments to combat financial crisis. The ultimate safeguard that gold offers is irreplaceable in case of emergencies."
During the 2-day gold forum, representatives from the government's gold mining departments, gold Jewellery trade, and commercial banks took turns to give their views on the existing circumstances of China's gold industry and their expectations towards opening up the market. Although issues surrounding the gold market opening were far more complicated than expected, all participants of the meeting agreed that it was high time China's gold production and trading system be reformed. The determination to reform should not be deterred by any short-term difficulties. Reform measures should proceed in a systematic manner stage-by-stage. The opening of the domestic market should come first, followed by alignment with the international market. The general consensus was that, in the long run, it would work towards the ideal of providing a healthy environinent for realizing the full potential of China's gold market.
Appendix
China's Gold Market: Reform and Deregulating
Some basic thoughts and suggested directions
(Excerpt)
A Suggested Scenario for Deregulating the Gold Market
A three-stage scenario for deregulating the gold market could be designed and implemented.
First Stage: Opt for a Dual-track Transition Period of 2 Years. Main measures include:
Prepare for the establishment of a gold exchange. Membership is limited to include only qualified big producers, purchasers and brokers. The exchange only conduct spot transactions.
When the exchange is ready to operate, the central bank begins to decontrol gold purchase and adopt the dual-track approach. Namely, granting producers a purchase ratio, leaving the producers the freedom to choose whether to sell to the central bank or to sell through the gold exchange market. Surplus products outside the purchase ratio shall enter the gold exchange market. The purchase ratio is determined according to the situation at the given time and shall be reduced year after year. For example, 60% for the first year, 30% for the second year. The purchase price of the central bank should be so determined that it should be close to international gold price, slightly lower than domestic market price and should not fluctuate too much. Along with the reduction of purchase volume, the central bank shall contract its purchase networks, only retaining those at enlarged regional branches, central cities and major gold-producing areas. In parallel to central bank's decontrolling of gold purchase, the gold exchange shall begin to operate.
Partial relaxation of the central bank's monopoly over gold purchase will be accompanied by a total opening of sales. Quota-based allocations to manufacturers are to be abolished. All the domestic gold sales by the central bank will be conducted through the gold exchange. Qualified big purchasers and brokers can buy and sell gold directly at the gold exchange. Small-and medium-sized manufacturers buy and sell gold through the intermediary service by whole sale purchasers and brokers.
To cope with considerable OTC transactions, when the gold exchange is more established, efforts may be directed to the establishment of electronic intangible (E-market) market to provide remote access services, so as to attract as many as possible traders to the 'regular'market trading system. On the other hand, in the areas where numerous small gold producers and buyers are located and trading is concentrated, local gold trading centers can be established around a core of exchange members, subject to the approval of local authorities. At the local trading centers, exchange members will carry out wholesale and retail transactions with a great number of small-and medium-sized manufacturers and retailers, who shall establish long-term and stable agency relationship. Hopefully, a market will gradually take shape that centers round the exchange and electronic trading system, with exchange members at the core, supplemented by intermediary relationship with small-and medium-sized manufacturers and retailers at local trade centers. Various traders are organically related and will meet their need in the most suitable way.
In order to enable domestic gold producers to avoid price risks, at the time before domestic gold exchange conducts futures trade, qualified producers with domestic exchange membership could be permitted to undertake transactions through appropriate local commercial banking institutions at international gold exchange markets. Since futures trade generally does not call for actual delivery, this would not contravene the policy of restricting gold export. If under certain special circumstances that require physical delivery, it should be subject to approval by the authorities.
Before total liberalization of foreign exchange rates, domestic market and international market should be segregated. Except for some export of gold jewelry, gold export is forbidden in principle. Under such circumstances, domestic gold price, even if it were formed by market forces, would inevitably be different from international gold price. Such price differences would induce smuggling and hedging. In order to reduce and remove such price differentials, the central bank should operate in both domestic and international market to fashion a basic equilibrium between the prices of the two markets. This fine-tuning function of the central bank can be fulfilled through the founding of a stabilization fund, which can be entrusted to some local agency for market operations, so as to respond to market changes in a flexible and timely manner.
The Second Stage: Complete Deregulating the Domestic Market. Main measures include the following:
The central bank totally stops the buying from producers. All the gold output from gold producers is traded in the market.
Market system based on the exchange and electronic trading is further developed and improved.
Gold products are available to individual citizens, who can hold, buy and sell gold products such as bullion, for the purpose of saving and investment. Gold financial investment activities will start to develop.
In the light of actual circumstances, the need and possibility for starting gold futures activities may be explored, and policy measures can be adopted accordingly.
The Third Stage: Direct Linking to the international Market. Main features include the removal of ban on gold import and export, full compatibility between domestic and international markets. Domestic market becomes simply an active component of the international market. The central bank stops its market operations intended to balance domestic and international markets.
Among the above 3 stages, the first stage is fundamental. The new market system will come into being gradually. If possible, the first stage can be launched next year. And the second stage may start two years afterward, which will deepen and improve upon the first stage results. The timing for entering the third stage depends on certain conditions. One important condition is the complete convertibility of RMB.
Project team on "Deregulating the China's Gold Market"
Team Leader and General Report Author Liu Shi Jing (Researcher, Ph D.)
This report has drawn upon the sub-reports and other relevant literature listed below: The Necessity and Ways of Reforming Gold-Producing Enterprises--by Liu Li (Ph D.)
The Establishment of Gold Market and New Distribution Pattern--by Wang Wei (Associate Researcher, Ph D.)
Opening the Gold Market: Central Bank's Functional Change and Macro Policy Adjustment--by Zhang Cheng Hui (Researcher, Ph D.)
During the research work, experts and scholars from the People 's Bank of China, the Gold Bureau of State Economic and Trade Commission, China National Arts&Crafts (Group) Corporation and other gold producing and manufacturing enterprises have offered valuable comments and suggestions to this research, to whom we hereby extend our gratitude.
TownCrier
(11/18/99; 22:52:23MDT - Msg ID:19397)
Sir Ulysses and the Fed's profits
From memory (may therefore be wrong, but hopefully in the ballpark) is that shareholders get a fixed dividend (six percent?) and after the Fed pays operating expenses, the rest is returned to the Treasury, as Sir RossL indicated.
On another note,
The Tower's rooftop observatory has been undergoing some retooling this evening, so we'll slap together a bare-bones GOLDEN VIEW as the situation allows.
koan
(11/18/99; 22:09:00MDT - Msg ID:19396)
Canamami - internet to gold
Good comment my old friend - that is exactly where I have been. Sold most of my mining stocks during this last blip and bought Canadian wireless mostly - EWD, IW, CIC, etc - (missed SW and wi-lan (thought wi-lan was a chinese restaurant) <ggg>), and have done real well - now I will start taking profits and moving back into the very oversold mining sector which has been even more oversold by tax loss selling. Companies like PVO, BGI and ATG and others. I have my eye on the mkt and am ready to sell and switch back in a moments notice. Hello to Tom Cat, Stranger, Peter (I always wondered if you knew I was laughing with you, not at you, regarding Huxley's Doors of perception), Black Blade and Cavan Man - keep the faith. Koan
Black Blade
(11/18/99; 21:51:13MDT - Msg ID:19395)
Western Investment Mining Conference
~ FREE TICKETS ~
Register for FREE tickets to the
Western Investment Mining Conference, November 28 &29
-- San Francisco Marriott --
Over 70 international speakers will discuss the profit potential for Gold, Silver, Platinum, Diamonds, Base Metals, Oil & Gas at the World's Best Metals & Mining Investment Conference including: James Dines, The Dines Letter; Bob Bishop, Gold Mining Stock Report; Mark Skousen, Forecasts & Strategies; Steven King, Black Gold Advisory; Rick Rule; Frank Holmes, Adrian Day; Ian McAvity; Ken Coleman; the Aden sisters. Special panels will include Michael Murphy on Technology Investing; Jim Lord, Y2K; Currencies; Financial Strategies for Successful Retirement; and much more.
Register Online or call 1-800-336-BULL for FREE tickets.
If any of the kind Knights and Ladies in the Bay Area would like to do a bit of recon work for the rest of us, here's your chance. Black Blade (Toshin Kuro Kosai)
Black Blade
(11/18/99; 21:44:12MDT - Msg ID:19394)
Fact or fiction? That is the question.
NBC PUTTING UP DISCLAIMER TO HEAD OFF VIEWER PANIC
By DON KAPLAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
is taking steps to make sure that viewers know that Sunday's new disaster movie Y2K is just a movie.
Its parent network will air a disclaimer before the movie and the station will air a Y2K Reality Check on the 11 o’clock newscast directly afterward to undo any anxiety that critics, which include power companies, banks and airlines, say the movie is bound to stir up. Y2K the movie is about wide-spread power outages, nuclear meltdowns and prison riots that are sparked by the onset of the millennium. But the realistic theme plays into people's worst fears, much the same way Orson Welles’ infamous 1938 Halloween radio show War of the Worlds sent thousands of listeners into a panic. The Y2K film has several large business organizations ranging from the Edison Electronic Institute (EEI) to the American Banker's Association fuming that it will add fuel to the millennium paranoia. They urged NBC to offer special programming, similar to WNBC's Reality Check. This is a movie that goes directly to some very fundamental beliefs that some people have about the millennium and even the apocalypse, said EEI spokesman John Castagna who said he watched the film at a screening last Friday. The EEI which represents two-thirds of the $230 billion electric utility industry has sent a letter to 100 of NBC's largest affiliate stations urging the local stations to air Y2K counter programming designed to address panic and unnecessary alarm."
Meanwhile, NBC plans to air a disclaimer before the movie that reads: "'Y2K’ is a purely fictional thriller. The characters and situations are not based on fact. This program does not suggest or imply that any of these events could occur."
We're hoping that our audience will be able to distinguish between fact and fiction," an NBC spokeswoman said.
Ulysses
(11/18/99; 21:43:35MDT - Msg ID:19393)
RossL-the Fed
http.//www.usagold.com
Geez......how could I get a job there?
Black Blade
(11/18/99; 21:36:18MDT - Msg ID:19392)
Take care with Y2K fuel storage and (Psssst.....don't tell the cops!)
Fire officials demand removal of Y2K fuel stash
BY TIM McGLONE, The Virginian-Pilot
Copyright 1999, Landmark Communications Inc.
VIRGINIA BEACH -- Terry Santure thought he was protecting himself from possible Y2K disasters when he brought home two 55-gallon drums of diesel fuel and another drum of gasoline.
If Y2K computer problems on Jan. 1 cause power outages, he'd be ready to fire up his generator and power his pickup truck. But firefighters saw it differently. They thought there was a greater need to protect Santure's neighbors and demanded that he remove the drums, officials said.
That amount of gasoline alone could cause an explosion and fire that would take out an entire city block, particularly a block of townhomes where Santure lives on Buckminister Lane in the Lake Edward neighborhood, firefighters said.
Fifty-five gallons of gasoline mixed with 110 gallons of diesel fuel could destroy an entire neighborhood, they said.
Though Santure broke no laws, firefighters are using the incident as a reminder to residents that precautions need to be taken when storing hazardous materials such as fuel.
Fire Capt. Bill R. Smith said the department has received a number of calls from residents asking how they should store their Y2K emergency fuel supplies. But the Nov. 3 inspection of Santure's home was the first time this year firefighters had to investigate a report of hazardous Y2K materials in someone's house.
``I guess people are storing it, trying to prepare, but they're creating a much more dangerous environment than what they're preparing for,'' Smith said.
To illustrate the dangers involved in storing fuels, police and firefighters set up a demonstration on Tuesday at the old Creeds air strip in the southern end of the city.
The Police Department bomb squad set two jugs, each containing about a quarter gallon of gasoline, inside a small junk car at the end of an abandoned landing strip. Members of the bomb squad put an ignition device inside the car and then ran an electrical line about 100 yards to where they stood. Firefighters, meanwhile, waited in their fire trucks about 200 yards away. Sgt. B.B. Batten counted down, 3, 2, 1, and hit the ignition switch. The flash inside the car was bright, but quiet. A split-second later, the explosion blew out the car's windows and shook the car left to right and up and down. Flames shot out the sides and a cloud of thick black smoke mushroomed toward the sky. The white car turned black in seconds as fire swept through the inside and then engulfed the outside.
``That shows you what a small quantity of gas can do when it vaporizes and ignites. You put that amount times 10 and you can imagine what could happen,'' Smith said.
That's why firefighters were so concerned when they were notified by Santure's neighbors that he had drums of fuel in his garage, which is attached to his house. They inspected and then returned on Nov. 3 with a search warrant.
Firefighters had to obtain the warrant because Santure works on tug boats and spends long stretches on the water and was not home at the time, according to his ex-wife, Michele Galdun, who was living there at the time but does not own the property. She said she wasn't comfortable with the drums of fuel in the garage, but Santure insisted they would be needed in case there were Y2K disasters. The theory is that a computer glitch over dates programmed in older computers could cause machines to malfunction leading to utility outages, banking problems and automobile failures. But storing large drums of fuel in an enclosed, unventilated room could lead to explosions, firefighters said. For example, the fumes from a large drum of gasoline kept in an enclosed room could be ignited by a pilot light on a furnace or water heater, Smith said.
``I always knew about the dangers. It could have been catastrophic for the neighborhood,'' Galdun said.
Santure, who declined to comment, agreed to have a professional company remove the three hazardous drums, firefighters said. Firefighters said residents can keep up to 120 gallons of fuel, but only in an approved, ventilated container stored in a structure that is not part of a dwelling. Firefighters allow up to 25 gallons of fuel to be stored inside a dwelling, but only in approved containers.
Smith, however, suggested that all fuels be kept outside of a dwelling.
RossL
(11/18/99; 21:29:48MDT - Msg ID:19391)
Canamani - exiting is the big deal
As much as I don't like S.J. Kaplan's day trader style, I will depend on him (or someone like him) to give me the sign to sell. The psychology of the average person will not let themselves make these decisions without emotional whipsaws.
Black Blade
(11/18/99; 21:29:21MDT - Msg ID:19390)
Gold certs as money? hmmm.......novel concept.
U.S. Settles Y2K-Related Case With Mining Company
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A California mining company and its president have settled Federal Trade Commission charges that they allegedly used fear of the Y2K computer glitch to defraud investors, U.S. officials said on Wednesday.
The company, Selket Precious Metals Inc., and its president, Paul Byus, used an Internet pitch to market its own shares and certificates redeemable for gold from the company's mine.
Potential investors were assured that an investment in Selket would appreciate because Y2K concerns would boost the price of gold, the FTC said in a report on the third Y2K-related case it has brought.
The FTC said Selket claimed gold certificates would be just like money in the chaos the company said would follow Jan. 1, when unprepared computers may confuse 2000 with 1900 and crash or malfunction.
Under terms of the settlement, Selket and Byus would be barred permanently from making false representations to market an investment offer. The settlement does not constitute an admission of illegal conduct by the defendants.
``Using Y2K-related fear tactics to make a quick buck from consumers is unconscionable,'' said Jodie Bernstein, head of the FTC's Bureau of Consumer Protection. ``Consumers should be wary of any offers that play on their fear of Y2K-related financial difficulties.''
Byus could not immediately be reached for comment.
The FTC's first two Y2K-related complaints were brought earlier this year. They involved companies that allegedly sold worthless credit card protection services as supposed shields against Y2K-related glitches.
Black Blade note: notice that reference to a fraud scheme(?) is placed at the end of this article. FRN's (real money?) vs Gold certs, hmmmm.....who is the FTC trying fool.
RossL
(11/18/99; 21:01:55MDT - Msg ID:19389)
Ulysses - the FED
They spend money. They buy Lear Jets. They zoom around, have wild parties in lavish resorts and spend more money like drunken sailors. Then they report a small profit and return a pittance to the treasury.
SteveH
(11/18/99; 20:55:39MDT - Msg ID:19388)
Seconding ORO
What allows the stock folks to make money in stocks is diametrically opposed to what it takes to make money in gold, imo. When they realize that they should be in gold it will be too late for them to get out of stocks OR just to late to get in gold. We used to ask FOA and Another if all of this would occur in the next 10 years. They seemed to indicate it would be within the near future. In any case, the gold market can't be accused of being boring anymore.
Ulysses
(11/18/99; 20:47:34MDT - Msg ID:19387)
the fed
http://www.usagold.com
Could someone tell me what the Fed does with the interest it collects from the discount window?
ORO
(11/18/99; 20:35:15MDT - Msg ID:19386)
Canamani - exiting is the big deal
I have no doubt that the current bull has made many much money. They, and those who are added to their ranks will not EXIT with their profits. See their current behavior? Did anyone exit the market? During a vertical move, do you think any "long termer" will ever sell? he did not on the way up, and he won't on the way down. He might sell at or towards the bottom or at the beginning of the recovery.
This is history as it has repeated many cycles.
The large holders don't have the luxury of timing their moves to an exact day at the top. Many have more stock in various corporations than the market could ever absorb without falling apart.
canamami
(11/18/99; 20:23:35MDT - Msg ID:19385)
On Tech Stock Investors......
Are they really as stupid as we on this Forum seem to think? Sure, many of their investments have poor fundamentals, but a buddy's US Aggressive Growth Fund (not even an individual stock) is up 143% this year. Think of the gains investors in Corel have made in the past year (10 times). They can sell some of their stock and buy gold (yes, even physical gold) which is cheaper than it was a year ago, and be better positioned even in terms of physical gold than someone who put all their investment money in physical gold last year. In addition, they'd still have the portion of the Corel stock they didn't sell.
What I have related above is fact, not theory. Whether this will be true in the future is another thing, but such speculations do not detract from the current reality described above.
JCTex
(11/18/99; 19:44:12MDT - Msg ID:19384)
ORO/bought gold
Let's see, now: "smart money" loaned the gold to the mining companies to short, "smart money" then bought the gold back. Could we, also, assume that they required a pledge of collateral [such as the miners' reserves] against these loans. "Smart money" just begins to describe these guys. I may stay mad as hell at them, but they ARE smart.
YGM
(11/18/99; 19:17:30MDT - Msg ID:19383)
Golden Sextant Latest
Hold on to Your Hats & Your GOLD
CURRENT MPEG COMMENTARY
November 16, 1999. Dow/Gold Ratio = 1 at $3000: Don't Laugh!
From an historical perspective, the possibility that the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the gold price could converge at around $3000, i.e., the Dow at 3000 and gold at US$3000/oz. sometime in the next decade is quite supportable. Nor does this possibility invoke Y2K disruptions, terrorist events, or any other unanticipated geopolitical disturbances. But adding them to the analysis might have produced an even more catchy heading: Dow and gold at $2000 in 2000. Then again, with luck maybe the Dow/gold ratio will next bottom at 2 or 3 with gold at $2000 or $3000 and the Dow at 6000. Traumatic as that sounds, it is well within historic parameters.
Many think that gold peaked in January 1980 at just over $800/oz., or around $1600 in today's dollars. But according to a charticle in Forbes (May 4, 1998, p.50), gold hit its all-time high in 1492 at around $2400 in current dollars. That the real price of gold peaked in the year that Columbus sailed for America is not wholly coincidental. Over the next century, as the Europeans plundered the gold treasure of the New World and transferred it to their own economy, the real gold price declined to a level that notwithstanding periodic wild oscillations has remained remarkably stable from Shakespeare's time to the present day. Roy Jastram makes the same point in more academic fashion in the The Golden Constant (see Reading List).
From the start of the industrial revolution to World War I, constraints of the classical gold standard that might have forced a real upward revaluation of gold were eased by several great gold discoveries, first in California and Australia, later in the Yukon and above all, South Africa. As another Forbes charticle (Jan 12, 1998) points out, the twentieth century is unique for a consumer price explosion averaging almost 3% annually in the U.S. and a worldwide paper standard of value. But the century of global war and global inflation has also produced a global economy in which large national economies that formerly had little or no connection to those of America or Europe now impact them directly.
As the new millennium approaches, any extraordinary changes in gold supply relative to worldwide monetary demand appear more likely on the demand side of the equation. Perhaps there is another Eldorado waiting to be found, but the declining gold prices of the past decade have not encouraged the search. At the same time, the trend of monetary demand from Asia is increasing and looks to do so for the foreseeable future. Most Asians have a strong historic and cultural affinity for gold, an appetite further whetted in recent years by crummy paper currencies based on mostly western ideas: central banking, floating exchange rates and IMF policies. With literally billions of smart, industrious people just entering the world economy, Asia could be to gold demand in the 21st century what the New World was to gold supply in the sixteenth.
The Dow/gold ratio is virtually useless as a short term indicator. Rather, its logic and utility relate to the great cycles of the international economy. The Dow is a standardized measure of the value in U.S. dollars put on ownership of the leading American businesses of the day. Although the companies in it change at the discretion of its proprietor and are not weighted for capitalization, the Dow tracks quite closely with the S&P 500. Gold is permanent natural and international money. All over the world, people can tell you the gold price in their own currency even though they may have little or no idea of the local price of other currencies. While the Dow is more affected by the domestic credit environment, gold is affected by both national and international monetary and credit conditions. Thus the Dow/gold ratio gives an international perspective on the value of U.S. stocks that purely American indices cannot provide.
The Dow/gold ratio moved from 1.01 in 1897 to 18.4 in 1929 before the crash, then fell to 2.01 at the bottom in 1932 (gold fixed at $20.67/oz.). From 28.26 at the Dow peak in 1966 (gold fixed at $35/oz.), the ration fell to about 3 at the bottom in 1974, and to 1.04 in January 1980 at the modern peak in gold. At the Dow's peak in August 1999, the ratio was over 40, an all-time high. Portrayed on a chart covering this century, the Dow/gold ratio presents a violent saw-tooth pattern that would scare a roller coaster fan. For a long term Dow/gold chart, see www.franco-nevada.com/fn_gold.htm; for charts since 1984, see business.fortunecity.com/wrigley/585/Markets/GoldDow.htm. The peak ratios of 1929 and 1966 both resulted from credit expansions that ultimately strained the existing international monetary order to the breaking point. The 1932 and 1974 troughs in the ratio coincide with those breakdowns, events virtually unavoidable in retrospect but not widely anticipated in advance.
The circumstances of the 1929 and 1966 peaks have three features in common: (1) an unreasonably low official gold price relative to monetary demand; (2) a multi-year domestic credit expansion beyond anything previously known; and (3) a pervasive feeling of optimism and perpetual prosperity. The unrealistic gold prices largely reflected the stigma attached to devaluation and official distaste for embarrassment by gold. The credit expansions were facilitated by government monetary policies rooted in the demands of wartime finance, but permitted to come to full flower only in the relaxed atmosphere of the subsequent peace. And in both periods, unbounded faith in the future came amidst astonishing technical and scientific advances. All these conditions are present today.
Although the gold price is no longer fixed by government decree, the Bank of England's gold sales are inexplicable except as part of what has likely been a multi-year effort by certain governments and central banks to keep a lid on the gold price. As discussed in prior commentaries, these official manipulations no longer command the support of the ECB and other European central banks, leaving the BOE and the Fed with the job of cleaning up a market mess mostly of their own making. The public announcement by Kuwait that all its official gold reserves are now available for lease through the BOE is part of this effort. Historically, extraordinary ferment in the gold market caused by unusual government disposals or acquisitions are indicative of peaks in the Dow/gold ratio.
However, official distortion of the gold price today is not limited to these more recent interventions. A far more fundamental distortion was created by the 1978 amendments to the articles of the IMF seeking to oust gold from the international monetary system and largely to replace it with U.S. dollars. When the dollar can no longer support this international burden, the suppression of gold will likely unwind with the force of a coiled spring.
Egregious departures from historical standards of stock valuation and prudent financial practice are characteristic of all great bubbles, and thus also of peaks in the Dow/gold ratio. Many analyses support the proposition that stock valuations now exceed historical norms by wide margins.
Although not added to the Dow until only a couple of weeks ago, Microsoft as measured by stock market capitalization is the world's largest company. Even after its antitrust setback and despite the obvious new challenges it faces, it continues to trade at a trailing PE around 60, nearly twice both its 5-year earnings growth rate and its average annual PE as reported by Value Line. It pays no dividend and has a book value around $5, but these criteria are deemed of no relevance at all in the current new era. In a recent online analysis (www.billparish.com/msftfraudfacts.html), a Portland, Oregon, investment firm contends that under proper accounting practices, Microsoft is not even profitable. It is not necessary to accept this startling conclusion to appreciate two fundamental and very real problems that this study points up.
The first is the effect of stock options on reported wage expenses, particularly in the technology sector. In a bull market, employees are willing to take stock options in lieu of salary. When exercised, the employee is taxed on the basis of market value. That is, the difference between the exercise price and the market price is treated as income, on which the employee is then taxed regardless of whether the stock is sold. The market price thus becomes the new basis for future capital gains taxes. The company takes an income tax deduction equal to its tax rate times the employee's calculated income, but typically records no corresponding charge to earnings on its P&L. Thus, while the newly issued stock causes dilution in per share earnings, the wage or salary expense that it represents -- the difference between the market price at issuance and the exercise price -- does not impact earnings and increases reported cash flow by the amount of the tax deduction.
Whatever one thinks about the accounting conventions that apparently allow this treatment, it is clear that companies compensating large numbers of important employees in this fashion are headed for significant financial and personnel problems should their stock prices merely level out, never mind fall. What is more, this situation produces substantial incentive for companies to try to push their stock prices ever upwards by managing earnings, repurchasing shares, or in Microsoft's case even selling put options to institutional holders of large blocs of its stock. Indeed, sale of put options has in recent quarters generated a not insignificant amount of cash for Microsoft while allowing some of its largest shareholders to enjoy at least the illusion of protection.
The second problem underlined by the Microsoft study is the danger of stock indexed investing done with no regard to underlying stock values. The 1972-1974 bear market, which took the Dow from over 1000 to under 580, ended the "Nifty-Fifty" era and discredited the widely held belief that smart investing consisted merely in buying and holding a few blue chip or so-called "one-decision" stocks. As a practical matter, this belief is reincarnated today under the guise of index investing, a perfectly valid and useful concept until taken (or gamed) to nonsensical extremes. Throwing funds at capitalization-weighted indices while remaining blind to the underlying value of their largest components has produced extreme overvaluations in certain "gorilla" stocks.
Like Microsoft, many of them are technology stocks, allowing their "new era" aura to trump more mundane considerations relating to profitability and sustainable growth rates. Among the Dow stocks, they now include after the recent changes: AT&T, Hewlett-Packard, IBM, Intel, SBC Communications and Microsoft. Others include: AOL, Cisco, Dell, Lucent, MCI Worldcom and Sun Microsystems, six stocks which on November 15, 1999, had a total combined capitalization just over $1 trillion, a mean PE ratio over 65, and an average PE ratio over 100.
Industrial and consumer stocks, too, have been swept up in the indexing mania. More than anything else, index investing explains why General Electric, the next largest stock based on capitalization after Microsoft and also a Dow stock, can trade at a trailing PE over 40 when until 1996 it almost never traded at an average annual trailing PE exceeding 15. What is more, not one of its historic or projected growth rates (sales, cash flow, earnings, dividends or book value for the past 10, 5 and next 5 years) as reported by Value Line exceeds 15%.
A few months ago an experienced investment manager asked rhetorically in a Barron's interview: "Who is going to buy GE at a PE over 30?" Now he has his answer: index investors, the same people who buy other gorilla stocks at eye-popping PE ratios. Who are these index investors? Many of them are the country's largest pension funds, making the prospect of fair valuation in the largest cap stocks so unnerving as to render a bear market virtually unthinkable. According to the Microsoft study cited above, the California State Teachers Retirement System owns more than 16 million Microsoft shares with a value of about $1.4 billion based on its commitment to indexing against the S&P 500, of which Microsoft accounts for about 4%. Unfortunately, particularly in the investment world, "unthinkable" and "impossible" are not the same thing.
These, then, are the three factors that make convergence of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the gold price at US$3000 possible before 2010: (1) the prospect of a millennial change in the gold supply/demand equation brought on by the demographics of worldwide economic growth; (2) a stratospheric Dow/gold ratio, reflecting enormous credit excesses in the U.S. but masking conditions of severe international monetary stress and ferment; and (3) unprecedented U.S. stock valuations reaching truly bizarre levels for some very large companies.
The Dow/gold ratio is signaling acute danger. History suggests that when it turns, as it may be just starting to do, the descent is not only swift and violent, but also unlikely to end short of fundamental change in the worldwide monetary order. The new millennium could well start with a ferocious financial roller coaster ride spanning the planet. Hold onto your hats, your stomachs, and the gold coins in your pockets!
ORO
(11/18/99; 19:09:29MDT - Msg ID:19382)
Al Fulchiano - BOUGHT GOLD
If someone wanted UPS, they could have bought it off the market. Going public is just what it means.
What "smart money" did in gold, seems to be this:
Lend, and buy the lent gold back.
Induce others to lend and sell their gold to them.
Make gold miners take out their best ores to sell at a discount.
This is how it is done. No, they could not "time" the markets by selling and buying. They are way too big, that is why their actions are spread over years.
Thanks
The Victorian
(11/18/99; 19:00:46MDT - Msg ID:19381)
WHAT HAS BECOME OF FOA ????
I have lurked on this site for several weeks and I grew to anticipate the insightful writings of FOA. There are a great number of other wise parties here, and I have learned much from them as well. But FOA has a unique ability to speak with a voice of calm, reasoned assurance, always confident and encouraging. I miss his posts. The rest of us seem to be swept about by the shifting tides. When trends are not favorable to our position we become disheartened. We stray off topic and get side-tracked with other issues. I wonder if all our off-topic posts could be partly responsible for the absence of FOA? Alas, I feel much like a teen-aged girl who is gloomy and frustrated because her boyfriend does not phone her! FOA, if you are out there, please "phone." :>
Gandalf the White
(11/18/99; 18:24:21MDT - Msg ID:19380)
Mundel's gold price prediction !
The Hobbits do believe that Dr. Mundell did NOT say $600 (six Hundred US Dollars) --- HE SAID $6,000. (six THOUSAND)
<;-)
The Stranger
(11/18/99; 18:23:36MDT - Msg ID:19379)
SteveH and Town Crier
Thanks for the money supply updates and explanations. You guys both appear to have such a good grasp of what is going on. It is a shame that so much of the explosion in money supply the last two years has been channeled through the stocks of companies which have no earnings. What misery could be avoided if only it weren't so difficult to make the masses appreciate what really drives the economy.
Who can doubt that when the financial history of this period is written, it will have loose money at its core. Yet, those who are responsible for chronicling events day to day have no deeper interest in monetary policy than the occasional rate-hike ballyhoo.
Every morning, the world arises to watch the lovely Maria Bartaromo cheerleading the madness of the market. Her exhortations sprinkled with hyperbole, she never quite has time before the break to squeeze in a caution about the insanity of those PEs. But why should she, when relatively so few know what a PE is anymore.
Behind it all, oil just keeps creeping higher. Likewise, the CRB. And the bond market? Well it just keeps going down. But who's got time for such things when there is a new paradigm at hand? Oh how easy it is getting rich.
Al Fulchino
(11/18/99; 18:11:46MDT - Msg ID:19378)
Oro
First, i read your works and appreciate your thoughts and efforts.You recently posted the following:
Note that UPS, GS and numerous financial, tech, internet and other companies owned by, or supported by "old rich men", are going public.
The "smart" money comes out of the market.
Where do you think it is going?
As ANOTHER said, gold is down because it is being bought.
The stock market is up because it is being sold.
Inflation - currency and bank credit are being created so that buyers of assets can give the populace at large alot of nothing (US$) rather than less nothing, for the real assets the "smart" money is buying. Once there is not enough left to buy, the "old rich men" will let it all go kerflooey.
I say: If the smart money is getting out of the market by selling, then gold ALSO was being sold by the "smart money".
Yes? ANOTHER's statement is actually NOT TRUE for the purposes of the point being made. Remember, UPS was sold for fiat cash. Not Gold!.UPS was SOLD!Yes! But it also was BOUGHT! And Smart Money SOLD GOLD LAST YEAR! :) "Smart money" sold gold last year because it knows the rules. The rules are their "home court advantage". We who love what gold stands for, must remember that our passion belief it gold's proper role is not always useful. All that ever matters is who is making the rules. I learned that as a boy when the toughest boys decide what was a touchdown and what wasn't <big smile>.
At this moment in history, I believe gold holders are in the smart, because they have sat down before the music has stopped and all the chairs have been sat in. The only thing we may still lack is the force to keep and profit from our precious metals. Best to you.
Wotan
(11/18/99; 18:02:04MDT - Msg ID:19377)
Mundell on Gold
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/991118/ny_world_g_2.html
Thursday November 18, 5:38 pm Eastern Time
Company Press Release
Gold to Stay At Centre Stage in the World's Central Banking System
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 18, 1999--Gold will continue to play a very significant role in the world's central bank reserve systems for much of the next century, said Robert Mundell, the new Nobel Economics Laureate, today. The presentation, held at the Waldorf Astoria, ushered in a new era for the legendary coin in the United States. It also marked the start of an international initiative to increase gold investment demand.
Professor Mundell, who is the C Lowell Harris Professor of Economics at Columbia University, was recently awarded the 1999 Nobel Prize for Economic Science. He was speaking at a press briefing ahead of a major conference on gold as a reserve asset which is being held in Paris by the World Gold Council.
He said that while the U.S. dollar was the most important reserve asset today, the growth in total reserves of central banks around the world would ensure that gold maintained its place.
``There are $2,000 billion or reserves in the world's monetary system and that amount will double over the next 12 years,'' he said. ``The bulk of reserves today are in U.S. dollars, but the bulk of that growth cannot be in dollars.''
Professor Mundell said a large part of the growth might be in Euros but part of it would result from a rise in the value of gold reserves. He said that he believed that the total physical amount of gold in the monetary system was unlikely to change; while some central banks may sell gold others would be purchasers.
``I think the total stock of gold in the reserve system in 12 years will be the same as now - I do not see any huge shifts of gold out of the system. Existing stocks may be redistributed around the system - I do not see the physical stocks of gold getting larger but if it maintains its position the price of gold will have to go up.''
Professor Mundell predicted that if the total amount of reserves were to continue to grow at 6% - the rate of growth of the recent past and if the dollar and euro exchange rates remained constant - the price of gold could be expected to rise to around $600 an ounce by 2010. ``I do not think that is an outlandish figure. Gold is a good investment for central bankers.''
He argued that gold would certainly be a reserve asset in the next century. ``Countries will simply not risk just holding paper currencies, especially if there is any change in the international monetary system.
``Gold provides a stabilising effect in a world of entirely flexible currencies,'' he said. ``The world has only had 28 years of total paper currencies generate inflation.''
He said that central banks have to think of the longer-term future. Although countries had learnt from the experience of the 1970's and put in place defences against inflation, nobody could be sure that these would be successful in preventing a return of inflation in all circumstances.
If there were an upsurge in inflation as in the 1970's, gold would have an important role as a hedge.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contact:
New York:
George Milling-Stanley, World Gold Council
Tel: (212) 317-3848
-or-
Victor Webb, Marston Webb International
Tel: (212) 684-6601
-or-
London:
Gary Mead, Head of Research, World Gold Council
Tel: (011 44171) 930-5171
-or-
Keith Irons, Bankside Consultants
Tel: (011 44171) 220-7477 or (011 44585) 356-639
Scrappy
(11/18/99; 17:58:06MDT - Msg ID:19376)
rsjacker
thank you for linking usage instructionaries.
{now I'm starting to sound like an economist, huh?}
Larkster, the credit for the clear and precise instructionaries goes to rsjacker. I only admitted ignorance in public, (unlike a true shameless hussey, which, I am not!}
THC
(11/18/99; 17:35:34MDT - Msg ID:19375)
@Oro
Thank you for the quick response.
I wish you good luck in setting up your web site, and I look forward to being able to read more of your work online.
I would also like to recommend that USA Gold consider placing Oro's work in an archive or Hall of Fame.
Bubble thoughts....just talked to a friend at a tech co whose stock has gone from $2 to $40.....asked if he was going to cash out his options.......he said he is "gonna go for the gold".......I'm sure many feel that way. It's so hard to leave the poker table when you're on a hot streak.
Good luck to all,
THC
TownCrier
(11/18/99; 17:24:34MDT - Msg ID:19374)
Another Media Mystery...disappearing articles
http://search.news.yahoo.com/search/news?p=Robert+Mundell&c=
HEADLINE: Gold to Stay At Centre Stage in the World's Central Banking System (BusinessWire)
"Gold will continue to play a very significant role in the world's central bank reserve systems for much of the next century, said Robert Mundell, the new Nobel Economics Laureate, today. - Nov 18 4:45 PM EST"
That's the index blurb on the news page, and get's you all primed for the following article. BUT...when you click the link, this is all you get...
A simple blank page with the statement "This article has been removed at the request of the news provider, Business Wire."
Can anyone else track down this article from another source?
canamami
(11/18/99; 17:06:41MDT - Msg ID:19373)
Declining Lease Rates
The lease rates are falling across the gamut of time periods, according to Kitco. They're even dropping at the six month and a year time frames. It would appear a lot of gold is finding its way to market from "somewhere". The question is: where or who is "somewhere"?
Larkster
(11/18/99; 16:58:24MDT - Msg ID:19372)
Scrappy,Re Cutting Copying etc
You are a gem.That was beyond me till now. You made it so
clear.On second thoughts I am not so sure. Saw you lurking
round another forum recently.Wanton woman-Shameless hussey
Lady Megan no way.Cheers.
TownCrier
(11/18/99; 16:41:22MDT - Msg ID:19371)
U.S. M-2 money supply fell $19.2 bln November 8 wk
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/991118/91.html
According to the Federal Reserve, during the November 8 week:
M-1 was at $1,102.3 billion, down $3.2 billion
M-2 was at $4,600.5 billion, down $19.2 billion
M-3 was at $6,358.3 billion, an increase of $14.4 billion
School time:
M-1 is one way to measure the U.S. money supply. It is the total of circulating cash, and all bank accounts available for immediate use...demand deposits...you know, cheking accounts and the like. Think of M-1 as measuring the immediately spendable U.S. funds.
M-2 measures a slightly broader money supply. It starts with everything in M-1, and it also includes funds which can be obtained and spent without too much hassle...such as your typical savings account, money markets deposits and small time deposits held at banks, etc.
M-3 is the broadest measure of anything passing as money. It includes the "medium of exchange" units of account found in the M-2, but also tries to recognize a "store of value" aspect by including the large, institutional time deposits and includes such things as the repurchase agreements we discuss here daily.
Looking at the figures from the November 8 week, we should recognize that the $3.2 billion is already built into the $19.2 billion decrease because M-1 is a component of M-2. Also recognizing that M-2 is a component of M-3, the net M-3 increase of $14.4 billion had to make up for the $19.2 billion that went to "currency heaven" through loan repayments or what-have-you. Therefore, we see that broadest component of "money" which is found only in M-3 actually had to increase by $33.6 billion for the week to net the $14.4 billion gain. This is brute force money-creation at the institutional level, not mom and dad borrowing for a new minivan. The little guys are out of fuel...
foolsgold51
(11/18/99; 16:34:12MDT - Msg ID:19370)
THE GREAT MONEY SWINDLE with Andrew Gause
http://www.broadcast.com/shows/endoftheline/9911/end1116.ram
Good gold bug radio program if you have Realaudio.
I am an old gold bug who is closer to Joe Six Pack
in income and lifestyle. In the last few months I
have bought 2 troy pounds of gold and 10 of silver.
I have turned $60,000 in my 401k to $70,000 by buying
gold shares. The problem is, and why I call myself
foolsgold, is that in October I could have turned
that $60,000 into $125,000 by just selling and forgeting
about the gold market. I am in this for the long haul
now because I will see that this is the best and safest
investment for me. If there is a stockmarket crash my
job will go very bad fast. Gold is my backup to my job.
My question is simple, would it be safer to put my money
into things like CEF?
CoBra(too)
(11/18/99; 16:22:06MDT - Msg ID:19369)
(No Subject)
test
SteveH
(11/18/99; 16:03:10MDT - Msg ID:19368)
Seems like higher bond...
yields and oil are going to be the breakers of the bull market. One day the narrow breadth, upper ranged stock folks will wake up when their gas cost them 1.75 and are paper rich and gas poor.
This from Kitco: (incredible)
Date: Thu Nov 18 1999 13:21
Allen(USA) (Check it out. Thx QUAD @04:47) ID#246224:
Copyright © 1999 Allen(USA)/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
www.prudentbear.com/markcomm/markcomm.htm
Daivd Tice
-snip-
During the past eight weeks, broad money supply ( M3 ) has expanded by $125 billion ( keep in mind that M3 grew $273 billion during the first 5 years of the decade ) , or more than $15 billion per week, at an annual rate of more than $800 billion. And similar to last year, it looks like the major impetus behind this money explosion has been aggressive financial sector leveraging. Remember that last year the financial sector increased borrowings by an unprecedented $1 trillion, creating massive liquidity for the financial system and economy in the face of a global crisis and near meltdown in our credit system. Over the past two months, there has been a similar bout of liquidity creation. As evidence, after growing a total of about $8 billion during the preceding 5 months, financial sector commercial paper borrowings increased $53 billion during September and October. And during the first two weeks of November, these borrowings have surged an additional $28 billion. This is blatant financial credit creation that is certainly much responsible for the $53 billion growth in money market fund assets last month and the overliquefied state of financial markets. So far this year, money market fund assets have increased $183 billion, or at an annualized rate of 16%.
-snip-
Get this straight...credit bubble maximus.
1990-1995 M3 increased by $273 billion
Annualized: $25.3 billion per annum
Past 8 week period M3 increased $125 billion
Annualized: $750 billion
Present M3 expansion 1200% faster rate than 1990-5 period.
Alot of folks ( orgs ) want cash. Margin is expanding as well, which makes one wonder about the strength of the bubble as funds are streaming into cash accounts and the present pricing is financed with debt.
This ( M3 ) does not take into account the flight of capital out of the US$ and accounts which are 'measured' to produce the M3 numbers. We know a tremendous amount of financial flight is occuring from the US$ because it has weakened significantly over the past year or so. We also see tremndous pressure on the FED to do continual REPOS to the tune of 2 to 5 billion per 1 - 3 day period ( repurchase of US bonds, capital flight sign ) . The 30 year bond is telling us that the world wants out of the US$ and the FED is trying to balance the demand so that the LTB does not skyrocket.
phaedrus
(11/18/99; 15:24:03MDT - Msg ID:19367)
@Oro
I fail to disagree.
ORO
(11/18/99; 14:41:13MDT - Msg ID:19366)
Phaedrus - That is what they are doing
Note that UPS, GS and numerous financial, tech, internet and other companies owned by, or supported by "old rich men", are going public.
The "smart" money comes out of the market.
Where do you think it is going?
As ANOTHER said, gold is down because it is being bought.
The stock market is up because it is being sold.
Inflation - currency and bank credit are being created so that buyers of assets can give the populace at large alot of nothing (US$) rather than less nothing, for the real assets the "smart" money is buying. Once there is not enough left to buy, the "old rich men" will let it all go kerflooey.
phaedrus
(11/18/99; 14:20:41MDT - Msg ID:19365)
one additional comment
Of course, if you think this market is crowd driven rather than being held up by scheming fat guys in smoke filled back rooms, then the situation is still equally precarious, as the Elliott wave analysts, who study mass psychology, can point out.
phaedrus
(11/18/99; 14:12:43MDT - Msg ID:19364)
@Farfel re market manip
Farfel:
I agree with your scenario up to and until the day everything blows up. This stockmarket is not going to die of old age. Like a racehorse shot up to the eyeballs on dianabol, at some point its heart is going to explode in mid-stride.
The question is, if one accepts an outright manipulation scenario, how much juice do the manipulators have left. How long have they been cooking the books, how much strength have they used up, and how much in reserves do they have left.
Also note that if there are indeed worms rigging this market (white old rich men), they know the party has to end some time. This suggests that at some point they could be looking to reverse everything in an explosive way, and profit all the way down (and up, in the case of the metals).
What better time to sell than when the whole world is buying, especially when you know how the movie ends? Same case in reverse for the metals.
December still looks to be by far the most interesting month of the year.
ORO
(11/18/99; 14:07:10MDT - Msg ID:19363)
Wayne Angel and Tice's view
http://www.prudentbear.com/markcomm/markcomm.htm
Tice quoting Angel:
Begin quote
When asked to predict the Fed's decision, Dr. Angell stated that he expected the Fed to raise rates, but "that it is not the important question because it really doesn't make that much difference whether they raise rates 25 basis points… What does makes a difference is whether we continue to have the growth in labor productivity that drives this economy forward and keeps inflation low. So the real question is: What is going to guide the Fed in the future in regard to settling upon an interest rate that works for sometime…"
And in response to a question on the "new paradigm", Dr. Angell responded, "We Republicans are more apt to call it a "new era." It is a "new era" that's brought about because the Federal Reserve at least practiced price level targeting even though it never really annunciated it and so we were thereby able to get an employment rate low enough that we could thereby get the speed up in capital spending which drives labor productivity."
"I would suggest that the Fed objective is to get a low inflation rate - which is around 1 to 1 ½ percent - to get it down and cut that rate of inflation in half over the next two years. And thereby, I would like a 5.50 funds rate which would, I think, be more apt to give us a price of gold that would signal a continuation of the disinflation."
In response to a question on the economy, he stated, "Well, the economy is performing the way I envisioned it could perform when I suggested to the Senate Banking Committee in February 1986 that if the Federal Reserve would seek price level stability the Fed would bring economic growth to a faster rate than the Fed could conceive and the unemployment rate would go lower. So this "new era" economy is really the fulfillment of the dream that I had when I laid out so precisely the priority of price level targeting."
"The important question is what the Fed says more than what the Fed does. Because this "new era’ economy has such a strong demand for capital goods that non-essential capital spending is not going to be deterred by a 25 basis rise in rates. But the question at hand is: When does the Fed stop raising rates? That is: What is it that will guide the Fed to tell the Fed that rates are about right. And I hope and pray that it is not that the economy slows to a 2 ½% growth rate because such a slow growth rate would slow down capital spending, slow down the growth of labor productivity and we could actually have a higher inflation rate.
End quote
Read the article. Tice is good.
Angel understands the basics, is in on the oil for gold deals, and understands debt traps. He also promotes the claptrap about the "New Paradigm", "New Era" in his lingo.
Knowing, as he surely does, about the precarious state of the US$ and the forces competing to replace it (Euro, Yen, Gold, free coinage), he is shooting his mouth off with great bravado. As long as US$ are cycled into our financial markets, it will delay the break. He is the salesman for the Central Bank market, "you need not cancel the deal, we will deliver, see the great infrastructure we are creating in the new superefficient clunkware, oops... software and telecom economy". Meanwhile the Fed is trying desperately to keep the credit system viable. It is like Brazil's finance officials saying "we will not devalue" up to the last day before devaluation.
I am still checking out tech companies that use options strategies - they are for the most part in dire straits. Because of the willingness of "investors" to throw money at them, they can offer their products and build the networks that use them at subsidized prices - funded by your retirement funds, putting up physical and R&D infrastructure that will be outdated the day it starts operating and is way too early. Hopefully, the disaster to follow will be mitigated by the efficiency edge the presence of the new internet and software infrastructure could give over the rest of the world's production. Frankly, I don't believe so.
ORO
(11/18/99; 13:25:05MDT - Msg ID:19362)
Farfel
I totally agree with Farfel's view of the mood and political environment for the financial markets.
I will add that the Fed is allowing the the markets to rise through their intense monetization activity taking bonds off the market (the popular alternative to stocks) and adding liquidity that allows the folks to speculate with. Rising equity markets have also the dual inflation control roles of providing a sink for money printing to cycle through before hitting the economy (the money is dispersed through the tech sector- it subsidizes their underpriced products -and adds to building internet infrastructure), and then it attracts recycling of negative balance of payment dollars into the country.
Again, I see this as an unencumbered financial speculative frenzy that will only break once there is no more money willing to cycle through it. This will not happen until the Christmas bonus and tax refund money has been absorbed - note that this can be borrowed against and invested, or rather thrown at the tech funds. Many a tech fund manager will hold his nose and invest in the smelly rot of these little onion like bulbs.
rsjacksr
(11/18/99; 13:08:09MDT - Msg ID:19361)
ORO, re: VIX
Thank you
By the way. I appreciate the lessons and the contrast between you and Farfel
ORO
(11/18/99; 13:05:49MDT - Msg ID:19360)
Volatility index
Calculated from the implied volatility from the Black Scoles model of the OEX (SP100) options, interest rate and the sell price.
rsjacksr
(11/18/99; 13:02:51MDT - Msg ID:19359)
ORO, re: VIX
Please explain
What does vix stand for??
ORO
(11/18/99; 12:54:44MDT - Msg ID:19358)
VIX
The vix is below 21.
Expect serious weakness in the stock market within 3 weeks.
Severity of weakness will be in proportion to the drop below 21.
The "ultimate" danger would be a drop to the 18 area, or 17.
Why? Because of the put options that the VIX represents. Institutionals buy these as they hedge their buying of stocks. The higher their stock purchase rate, the higher their put buying rate. The fact of the VIX falling is an indicator of two main items.
1 That institutional buyers are loaded with stocks and have little cash to use.
2. The Wall Street insiders selling these options are happy to sell underpriced options to the non-institutional buyer. Their over-leverage through these sales will force them to start delta hedging at an earlier point given a drop in the markets. The lower the VIX the cheaper the options sold, and the less room there is for delay in hedging put option exposure.
As a psychological indicator, there is a strong correlation to euphoric magical thinking in this indicator. That the profit free techs are again the preferred target for the investments is an indicator of brainless autopilot money flying into a barometric depression.
Farfel
(11/18/99; 12:53:43MDT - Msg ID:19357)
On the Other Hand, Bond Market May Continue Down (cont'd)
The bond and stock markets seem to be decoupling from each other completely.
Bonds have generally been weak lately while stocks are strong. What it means is that increasingly bond investors are no longer fearing stocks and are liquidating bonds to buy them.
Soon, rising interest rates with a surging stock market will be a perfectly normal situation. The crowd is moving full swing into stocks and no longer believe there are any potential risks. That is because, as long as the Clinton administration continues eliminating all constraints designed to preclude or cap bullish mania within the economy and the markets, then there are, in fact, NO potential risks for stock investors. It is an unlimited upside casino as long as governmental interfence with once free markets prevails.
Although historically, falling bond prices have often been good for gold, this time things are different. This time falling bond prices are irrelevant to gold's progress, simply because gold has become such anathema to most investors. Bond investors cashing out today are not looking for safe havens (such as gold); rather, they are looking for speculative payoffs and gold is not providing that reward today. So, back to stocks, the race continues, fully sanctioned, aided and abetted by the Clinton government.
Have you bought your Intel or Merrill Lynch call options yet?
Thanks
F*
Farfel
(11/18/99; 12:43:01MDT - Msg ID:19356)
Market will Easily Surpass 12,000 by December :>)
As I accurately predicted, the DOW is developing full scale bull mania. Without any governmental constraints imposed upon this mania, it is self-evident that the market will close on its highs this year. The question is no longer the direction of the market, the question is simply "HOW HIGH?"
Y2k bugs will NOT be allowed to interfere with this bull and in the worst case scenario, the Clinton government will simply close the so-called "markets" if a notable downswing begins.
Forget the technical BS or the fundamental jargon from the so-called Wall Street analysts. The crowd is in full control of the markets now, NOT even the government is willing to place the brakes on this frenzy. The so-called Wall Street analysts are no more than mere cheerleaders to the crowd's stock buying fetish and have ZERO effect upon its verticality at this point in time. Repeat. ZERO EFFECT!
My gardener has better abilities to prognosticate the equities market today than any so-called Wall STreet analyst. After all, when I asked my gardener about the stock market, his single sentence response, "IT KEEP GOING UP!" is profoundly more accurate and astute than any psuedo intellectual babble offered by the assortment of Street technicians and fundamental analysts.
Unfortunately, for gold investors, there is simply no interest in looking at a sector than cannot offer more than 10 days of excitement in the entire year. Moreover, the majority of gold producer managements are populated by dimwitted small town Canadian junior college graduates who can not figure the distinction between their brains and their butts.
The XAU is dead in the water for the rest of the year while bank stocks should post the most dramatic year end gains as the continued positive effects of post-Glass Steagel mania continue.
RossL
(11/18/99; 12:25:27MDT - Msg ID:19355)
New $1.00 Gold Coin...
Viper - It's not gold. It's just a brass alloy that is somewhat gold colored.
TownCrier
(11/18/99; 12:18:21MDT - Msg ID:19354)
Sir Willo
Agreed. Solans comment gives good insight into the prevailing sentiment regarding the prop behind currently prevailing currency, the dollar.
TownCrier
(11/18/99; 12:14:06MDT - Msg ID:19353)
U.S. Trade Deficit Widened in September to $24.4 Bln; Imports at Record
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=U.S.%20Economy&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_econ&T=markets_fgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=blk&s=5b288253d2059835103991a6619881b0
September's total U.S. imports rose 0.1 percent to an all-time record $106.1 billion, outpacing exports to leave a shortfall of $24.4 billion. This was up from August which had originally been reported at $24.1 billion but was later revised to $23.5 billion for the month.
The deficit with China grew larger, and for the second consecutive month has set a new record as the largest deficit against a single country...now reaching $6.9 billion in September.
Unlike Mr. McTeer, the immensity of the trade deficit has conserned Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and other central bankers that international investors could lose confidence in the U.S. economy as a consequence. In a speech October 28th Mr. Greenspan said, "A continued widening of the deficit could eventually raise financing difficulties."
Easy Street isn't paved once you leave town, so don't expect the smooth ride to continue forever.
WilloTheWarthog
(11/18/99; 12:12:16MDT - Msg ID:19352)
Town Crier-Regarding this quote:
Eugenio Domingo Solans of the European Central Bank who had said,"Taking the current situation as a starting point, the Eurosystem's position concerning the future international role of the euro is crystal clear: we shall not adopt a belligerent stance in order to force the use of the euro upon the world economy...The development of the euro as an international currency will be a market-driven process, a free process."
What McTeer doesn't see or believe, and what Europeans know from getting slaughtered, is that they don't *have* to take a belligerent stance vis-à-vis the dollar.
One of the first rules of warfare is that you should stand back and let your opponent kill themselves if they are so inclined! Why waste the ammo?
TownCrier
(11/18/99; 11:52:02MDT - Msg ID:19351)
Tea leaves: Most IMM currency futures trade lower early
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/991118/t8.html
These are the some of the clowns (no offense meant to real clowns) that try to decide what a currency will be "worth," and here are also some of the tea leaves they read (economic news and data) in their process of making their own tea leaves (currency futures). Tea leaves begetting tea leaves, you see?
TownCrier
(11/18/99; 11:40:53MDT - Msg ID:19350)
Fed adds more reserves to the banking system ($8.255 billion), through overnight and 77-day repos
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/991118/os.html
Fed adds $5.085 billion through 77-day fixed-system repurchase agreements (nearly half of the collateral used was mortgage-backed securities).
They also added $3.17 billion to the banks' coffers through overnight system repurchase agreements.
ORO
(11/18/99; 11:32:04MDT - Msg ID:19349)
THC - Aggregation
I am putting together a web site where I can post graphics to accompany the text. It will take a while.
My files contain both posts and ongoing research work. Most is still in rather raw form.
My posts are a tool for collecting questions and challanges to the concepts and perceptions. Most of them are very raw, and are put out the moment I have them in a readable (though uncultivated) form, and at least an inkling of what I want to say regarding a subject of some importance, whether out of the news or the observations from ongoing work.
In a way, all who comment and ask questions are participating in the work itself.
I am grateful for the efforts you all make in participating in this process.
So, do I have the posts on HD. Yes, but the files contain way too much in unreadable notes and I would not send them out.
If anyone else has collected the posts, please go ahead and send them to THC.
TownCrier
(11/18/99; 11:28:54MDT - Msg ID:19348)
Fed's McTeer says not Fed goal to dampen stocks
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/991118/kf.html
Robert McTeer in a question and answer session about the Fed's responsibility to keep the stock market grounded said, "I don't consider it a goal of the Fed to dampen down asset prices. It is not our responsibility to put our judgement above the judgement of millions and millions of people who are betting their money on it (the stock market)."
Although his attitude seems a bit on the side of "Who cares? Let them learn the hard way," at least he isn't perpetrating a farce by saying that the people were "investing." He clearly used the term "betting" for a reason...because that what it has become. It would have been unforgivable for him to encourage further behavior by defending the notion that this was some kind of reasonable investment made by millions of reasonable people. The recent evolution from investing exuberance to gambling mania is palpable.
He also offered another comment on the trade deficit as it ties in with the value of the dollar. McTeer's comment seems to be an indirect response to comments made two days ago by Eugenio Domingo Solans of the European Central Bank who had said,"Taking the current situation as a starting point, the Eurosystem's position concerning the future international role of the euro is crystal clear: we shall not adopt a belligerent stance in order to force the use of the euro upon the world economy...The development of the euro as an international currency will be a market-driven process, a free process."
McTeer said in answer to a question of our deficit and dollar, "It is important to keep in mind that we have had a floating exchange rate with no intervention for some time, so the fact the dollar has been strong shows (the deficit) has been getting some comfort from markets."
The Tower thinks he had the comments of Mr. Solans in mind...it's like he's saying in rebuttal, "Hey, we didn't FORCE you to take all our paper in exchange for your stuff."
Yes, Mr. McTeer, but you're forgetting that once the original dollar-denominated loan has been written and commodities prices have subsequently been made to fall, the borrower no longer has much choice in the matter, but must keep exporting for the diminishing dollars offered in order to repay that loan. They are on the hook.
Viper
(11/18/99; 11:07:42MDT - Msg ID:19347)
New $1.00 Gold Coin...
Hello All! Have you heard of the new legal tender gold coin being minted? In about 45 min. (1p.m.C.S.T) on CNBC, they will show the very first gold coin being minted. It will be worth $1.00, legal tender, and begin circulation at the beginning of the new year. Should be interesting to watch. Catch ya later!
TownCrier
(11/18/99; 10:54:08MDT - Msg ID:19346)
UNBELIEVABLE: Fed's McTeer says FOMC peers erred on cautious side
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/991118/ho.html
Is this guy for real??
Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert McTeer said he personally believed non-inflationary growth could continue, but his fellows at the FOMC didn't agree with him: "One can resasonably interpret the Fed's tolerance of higher real growth rates and lower unemployment...as a courageous experiment that paid off in more growth and lower unemployment without an inflation penalty. I thought the experiment could go on a while longer without significant risk, but my colleagues didn't wish to push their luck."
[recall the comment posted earlier from Japan about the cost risk associated with losing that bet on inflation.]
Just to gain a little insight into this guy's mind, Mr. McTeer was the only member of the FOMC that voted against the rate hikes in June and August, and he is a self-proclaimed flag-bearer for the "New Economy" theory in which technology-driven production can forever keep rising prices at bay.
His comments on the dollar:
"It's hard to know what 'strong' means but if the dollar has been strong, (then) it still is. Most of the hand-wringing over a weakening dollar has focussed on the dollar/yen rate. Relative to the yen, all currencies have been weak lately. In my opinion, it's a yen thing rather than a dollar thing."
Earth to Mr. McTeer...calling Mr. Mcteer...
He said the concerns about the U.S. trade deficit were overblown..."I favour the more positive view that has the capital inflow as the independent variable based on good investment opportunities with the trade deficit financing the capital inflow."
...and contends that the U.S. is shouldering its necessary burdern on the world scene as the consumer-of-last-resort: "Consuming is a dirty business, but somebody has to do it."
rsjacksr
(11/18/99; 09:34:37MDT - Msg ID:19345)
Scrappy, Re: "Cutting, Copying and Pasting via the clipboard.
Off TOPIC
If you are familiar with copying and pasting, please ignore. If not, read on.
1) Copying a link: place the cursor in the link address window, the one that has the URL address, i.e. http://www.xxxx.xxx, and press the LEFT mouse button ONCE. The URL address should then be highlighted in reverse video (white background goes to blue and black printing goes to white). This is the selection process. Once selected, you can copy, cut, replace, and delete the selected information. This also holds true for ANY document or PART thereof that's selected.
2) Select EDIT from the menu bar. When the menu is displayed, select COPY. The information that is highlighted in reverse video is transferred to the clipboard and there IT WILL REMAIN until you COPY or CUT something else. The clipboard is a transfer station that's used to hold information so that you can transfer information to and from other programs. You can now PASTE this information ANYWHERE, ANYTIME, ANYPLACE and as many TIMES (danger) as your heart desires. All that is required is to go where you want to place the information (WORD, EXCEL, USAGOLD link address window, etc., etc., etc,.) and again using the LEFT mouse button, click ONCE to invoke the "insert cursor" (it looks like capital "I"), go to the EDIT menu and select "PASTE". The information previously selected will appear (pasted) in the window. IF YOU DOUBLE CLICK, YOU WILL GET IT PASTED, TWICE.
3) Selecting, Copying, Pasting and Deleting text. If you place the cursor (arrow) at the beginning of a line, press and hold the left mouse button, move the cursor from left to right, it will highlight whatever you select. If you are not at the beginning of the line but somewhere in the text area, the cursor will change shape to a CAPITAL "I". You can still depress the LEFT mouse button and select the desired text (one line or multiple lines). ** If you are in WORD or EXCEL, simply putting the cursor at the beginning of the line and clicking the LEFT mouse button will select the WHOLE line. You will also note that the arrow will change it's position from pointing to the northwest to the northeast **
4) Selecting everything: (SIMPLE ) Go to EDIT and scroll down to Select All. Do it. Now select COPY. Go to the desired location and PASTE the information .
5) Selecting portions of text. SIMPLE, NOT SO SIMPLE BUT THEN AGAIN, SIMPLE. Please follow. If the area of text that you want to copy is relatively small (same page), you can select and highlight that area, copy and paste and your done. If the text is over multiple pages. It can be done in two ways.
A) Same as above but this can take a long time (depending on how much and your computer) or B) Select the beginning of the desired text, that is select the first line. PLEASE RELEASE THE MOUSE BUTTON. Scroll down to the end of the desired text. WHILE HOLDING DOWN THE "SHIFT" KEY, place the cursor at the end of the desired text, click the left mouse button. All of the text between the first selection and the last selection, if done properly, will be selected. THIS IS CALLED BLOCKING TEXT. Now Copy and Paste your selected information.
By the way, you can call up the edit menu's by using the RIGHT MOUSE BUTTON. But this requires practice. Often, you will drop the selected info and have to do it again. HAVE FUN.
USAGOLD
(11/18/99; 09:20:14MDT - Msg ID:19344)
Today's Gold Market Report: Last Minute Y2K Preparations for Institutions and Individuals
MARKET REPORT(11/18/99): Gold opened down a little over a dollar in
thin, quiet trade this morning. Bridge News reports that London traders
were reluctant to take major market positions in either direction ahead
of the November 29 Bank of England auction. Our view is that we are just
experiencing a calm before the final round of Y2K buying which should
begin anew before the end of the month both at the small investor level
and possibly with some major institutions worldwide.
Last Minute Y2K Prep Going on Both at Individual and
Institutional Levels --An interesting article appeared on Reuters a
couple days (Article Link) ago citing the rise in corporate bond
interest rates as a direct result of major corporations issuing bonds to
boost their liquidity in advance of the millennium. Similarly, as
reported in another Reuters story (Article Link), the Fed is doing
everything it can to assure its member banks that liquidity will be
there for them at the end of the year. Along these lines, when gold
interest rates surged to the 5% level a couple months ago, many analysts
attributed the spike to central bankers pulling in their lease pool gold
in advance of Y2K.
Christmas Gold Rush -- At Centennial Precious Metals/ USAGOLD, we
experienced a surge of Y2K-inspired interest yesterday after a quiet
beginning to the week. Y2K gold-buying has come in waves over the past
two years as concern has waxed and waned with investors. All in all, we
would characterize the gold buying over the course of 1999 as nothing
short of remarkable -- something alluded to in yesterday's World Gold
Council report on record worldwide gold demand. Much of that record
demand has been related to Year 2000 concerns (along with concern about
the stock market bubble, rising oil prices and inflation). We now do not
expect this buying interest to decline markedly before mid-December (if
it declines at all). Further, we do not see price at these levels as a
factor in dampening demand but more a lubricant -- especially overseas.
Trying to stay ahead of the curve, we have asked clients with Y2K
concerns to place their orders as soon as possible, and before December
10, to maximize delivery before December 31, 1999. At the same time, we
do not want everyone to wait until the first week of December to order.
If we get clustering of orders in that one week -- especially if the
same is occurring nationally -- it could present delivery problems as
well. Also, we have the Christmas postal rush coming up. So let this
serve as advance warning. Please order as soon as possible if you want
to make a final addition or adjustment to your gold portfolio and beat
the upcoming Christmas gold rush.
Please call 800-869-5115 (Ask for Mary Conway) if you have an
interest in receiving a trial subscription to our widely read
newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary and Analysis on
the Economy and Precious Metals. Or you can go to our ORDER FORM
and submit your request by E-Mail. You will also receive our
introductory packet on investing in gold.
The Invisible Hand
(11/18/99; 08:36:08MDT - Msg ID:19343)
test
test
YGM
(11/18/99; 01:56:17MDT - Msg ID:19342)
Twice Discipled
http://www.gata.org/
If you haven't already done so make a small/big donation to GATA. Then you will feel like you're really fighting back......When GATA is done with all this cabal crap Martin Armstrong won't be alone in the crowbar hotel....... My Regards to you.....YGM.
YGM
(11/18/99; 01:37:52MDT - Msg ID:19341)
Twice Disicpled
You Said...............
The only question in my mind is what am I personally going to do about this besides load up on gold?
.............................
IMO, you're already doing something by questioning and speaking out. That's about all we can do for now, and I'm grateful for people like MK our host who gives us the leeway to roam a bit w/ topics in this great place of learning..........YGM
TownCrier
(11/18/99; 01:36:47MDT - Msg ID:19340)
Japan government defends BOJ on inflation policy
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/991118/c5.html
After apparent differences in opinion on monetary policy vs. inflation between the Government and the Bank, Japan's Economic Planning Agency has thrown the BOJ a bone in its annual price report for 1999 with the admission:
"Keeping inflation under control is difficult, and once it accelerates, the cost to tame it would be enormous."
Netking
(11/18/99; 01:33:05MDT - Msg ID:19339)
April Gold
http://www.fyii.net/cgi-local/chartgen.pl?gcj0.prn
April Gold - Note open interest.
Netking
(11/18/99; 01:29:14MDT - Msg ID:19338)
Platinum
http://www.fyii.net/cgi-local/chartgen.pl?plj0.prn
April Platinum
TownCrier
(11/18/99; 01:19:50MDT - Msg ID:19337)
Japan to Guarantee Napocor Bonds; May Create Asian Stock Fund
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=blk&s=9a57189305f0c8586763735c5e34191d
Shuhei Kishimoto, director of the Ministry of Finance's international financial markets office said Japan will guarantee a $350 million value yen-denominated bond sale of the Philippines National Power Corp. (Napocor) set for early next year, has plans for Thailand, and sees a similar bond guarantee for Indonesia in the future. "Asia's economies have been improving this year, and what we want to do now is help Asian nations borrow from the private capital market as they did before the currency crisis." He said in his opinion the country's state-run pension and postal savings system could be tapped into to get the cash required for such a regional fund. Deposit with Japan's postal savings system total US$2.4 trillion.
Here we go again?
THC
(11/18/99; 01:17:38MDT - Msg ID:19336)
Question for Oro
Good morning!
Oro, thank you for answering my question the other day.
I find that your posts are *extremely* informative and interesting. Is there an archive of your posts somewhere on the web?
If not, if you have saved your posts on your HD, can you send me a copy?
thchi@ops.dti.ne.jp
I'd really like to catch up on your past posts.
Thank you!!!!!!!!!!
Wishing Golden success to all,
THC
TownCrier
(11/18/99; 00:53:52MDT - Msg ID:19335)
On the euro's revisiting of its lower exchange rate levels...
"If (the euro's weakness) were to pose a threat to price stability in the euro area, this threat would be assessed and a response would be given." --ECB Chief Economist Otmar Issing (11/11)
A variation of "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" that goes something like this: "If you don't see us trying to fix it, then don't assume it's broke."
TownCrier
(11/18/99; 00:45:36MDT - Msg ID:19334)
Hear ye! Hear ye! An update to This Week in Gold
http://www.usagold.com/wgc.html
The latest weekly gold market commentary assembled by the World Gold Council's worldwide staff of the events shaping the world gold market is now available for the week November 8 - 12.
From the commentary:
"In Taiwan imports of gold bars and coins were 13.2% higher in October than for the same month last year. Imports for the first 10 months of the year totalled 71.2 tonnes, 39% up on the same period of 1998."
The citizens of Taiwan are getting theirs. Are you getting yours?
Netking
(11/18/99; 00:11:09MDT - Msg ID:19333)
YGM 19325
YGM-You Americans have a heritage that is second to none. The free world as we know it (including my country)owes a big debt to the USA. Perfect? no, but far be it for any person (resident or not)to pull it down, what would be enslaved to without it's input.
Click Here to view yesterday's discussion.
Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.
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