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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/17/2006 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Goldilox (1/17/06; 23:28:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 140571) War Ahead or Just Training? http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm snip:Not to be an alarmist about such things, but we have one Reader who spends a lot of his time watching public information about the US military. Today, he notes the following:WOW ... almost everything that can carry a Marine is now at sea. Enough stuff is now out to fully outfit an ADDITIONAL FIVE (5) Marine Expeditionary Strike Forces.All 8 LSD's are out6 of the 8 LPD's are out (1 was scheduled for retirement this spring and another 1 in Aug so I don't even know those two (2) are capable of going to sea)4 of our 7 LHD's (new model mini carrier) and 3 of our 5 LHA (old model mini carrier) are out (enough for one for each real and each potential ESG).The Marines are MOVING.+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++http://www.chinfo.navy.mil/navpalib/news/.www/status.html as of January 17, 2006:Carriers: USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71) - Persian Gulf USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) - Pacific Ocean USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) - Pacific OceanCommand Ships: USS Mount Whitney (LCC 20) - Atlantic OceanTarawa Expeditionary Strike Group (ESG) [13th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) (SOC)] USS Tarawa (LHA 1) - Indian Ocean USS Cleveland (LPD 7) - Indian Ocean USS Pearl Harbor (LSD 52) - Indian OceanNassau Expeditionary Strike Group (ESG) [22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) (SOC)] USS Nassau (LHA 4) - Arabian Sea USS Austin (LPD 4) - Persian Gulf USS Carter Hall (LSD 50) - Arabian SeaAmphibious Warfare Ships:USS Peleliu (LHA 5) - Pacific Ocean USS Essex (LHD 2) - Pacific Ocean USS Boxer (LHD 4) - Pacific Ocean USS Bataan (LHD 5) - Atlantic Ocean USS Iwo Jima (LHD 7) - Atlantic Ocean USS Ogden (LPD 5) - Pacific Ocean USS Juneau (LPD 10) - East China Sea USS Nashville (LPD 13) - Atlantic Ocean USS San Antonio (LPD 17) - Gulf of Mexico USS Whidbey Island (LSD 41) - Atlantic Ocean USS Fort McHenry (LSD 43) - Pacific Ocean USS Comstock (LSD 45) - Pacific Ocean USS Harpers Ferry (LSD 49) - East China Sea USS Oak Hill (LSD 51) - Atlantic Ocean USS Germantown (LSD 42) - Pacific OceanCould Iran (or somewhere else) be about to "go hot?" We're watching for the last few days of the month into first week of Feb in part because of the movement of forces, partly because of the dark of the moon then, and because the web bots say something unexpected is coming around then... Now, place your bets: Is this a bluff? You saw our reports of air units moving to the Middle East we reported last week, right?-GoldiloxNot argue the pros and cons of such activity, but just reporting that it's there. As Firesign Theater used to say: "Where there's smoke, THERE'S WORK!"Are the gold shorts just preparing for the leap ahead? Make a few bucks on the ride down, and be ready to slam it the other way! Goldilox (1/17/06; 22:39:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 140570) "Service Economy" Hype http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm @ Rook,China is just the biggest piece of the unequal trade patterns puzzle of the globalists. Have you been watching the US admin's priorities in Latin America?Yes, the middlemen are making tons of money (listen to part 4 of Puplava's Saturday broadcast with George Zhibin Gu), but as the international comglomerates put more and more small business owners and previous corporate labor out into the streets, US consumers are gonna find it difficult to continue supporting the globalist agena. After all, we can only take in each others' laundry for so long. The housing boom is showing signs of slowing down, along with the ATM function of individual RE equity.A work force that produces virtually nothing will eventually be replaced by either a lower paid work force (i.e. India), or automation, itself.If the only job left for the newest generation of US youth is playing international cop, then war will be necessary to "sustain that industry". But remember, while war contractors make managerial level salaries, the rank and file of the US military still earn less than the poverty rate in most communities, so they can't even enjoy the "spoils" of their conquest.To shelter one's eyes from that possible result of gobalism does not decrease its likelyhood one iota. Belgian (1/17/06; 22:24:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 140569) @ge If you only read 1/3 of the very short sentence and "repeat" only that same 1/3...how can we possibly communicate our mutual thoughts ? Druid (1/17/06; 22:22:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 140568) Nikkei Druid: You would have thought that after all the collaboration that has taken place over the years between the Japanese and U.S. Governments on how to swap currencies for debt, someone might have slipped in a Power Point presentation on how to keep the Nikkei levitated or at least range bound, much like the DOW and S&P 500. The paper wars are really heating up. Chris Powell (1/17/06; 21:56:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 140567) Japan's stock market falls sharply http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=ahs3GS7HWykw&refer=japan Maybe connected with gold's fall tonight.* * *Michael TsangBloomberg News ServiceWednesday, January 18, 2006 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=ahs3GS7HWykw&refer=japan TOKYO -- A rout in Japanese stocks deepened today, helping to wipe away more than $300 billion in value from the world's second-largest equity market this week. Technology shares including Tokyo Electron Ltd. and Toshiba Corp. dropped after earnings from Intel Corp. and Yahoo! Inc. fell short of estimates and heightened expectations profits in the industry will disappoint. Internet-related shares including Softbank Corp. and Yahoo Japan Corp. fell for a second day. The Yomiuri newspaper said today that Livedoor Co. falsified earnings to show a profit instead of a loss in the year ended September 2004. "Earnings such as Intel's that missed investor expectations are having a big effect on technology shares today," said Atsushi Osa, who helps oversee $4.1 billion at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. "The share selloff, especially in Internet-related companies, will continue to hurt the market until the Livedoor incident quiets down." The Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 709.48, or 4.5 percent to 15,096.47 as of 1:20 p.m. in Tokyo. Yesterday, the Nikkei slumped 2.8 percent, suffering the biggest percentage loss since April 18. In points terms, the Nikkei's decline exceeded that on Sept. 12, 2001, the day after the attacks on the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Washington. The Topix index today slid 92.52, or 5.7 percent, to 1539.09. Share-price declines in the past three days have reduced the market value of companies listed in the Tokyo Stock Exchange's first and second sections to 508 trillion yen from 544 trillion yen ($4.4 trillion) at the close of trading last week. The 35.5 trillion yen loss in market capitalization almost equals the value of the entire Chinese stock market, which was valued at $329 billion as of yesterday's close. The Tokyo Stock Exchange today asked investors to group orders together on concern trading will exceed the bourse's daily capacity of 4 million transactions. Rook (1/17/06; 21:44:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 140566) .,. Goldilox, I heard only part of a report when someone changed the channel, and by the time they changed it back at my request, I missed the details. However, the gist was that China is at some type of disadvantage in its export business. Major obstacles stand in the way of it taking over the full arm of exports. They can manufacture, but (missed data here), cannot easily become the middleman to retail around the world. The barriers of entry are somehow quite high. I dont comprehend that because hong kong is thiers, but, it was a quality business report. Goldilox (1/17/06; 21:15:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 140565) Fallout @ Rook,"Is there a way to protect parts of the derivitive structure if it goes awry? How did they limit the enron fallout?"Hear that "whoopwhoopwhoopwhoopwhoop" in the background?That's their answer, and that's why we're all HERE!The meltdown has already occurred. The bulk of the reported "productivity gains" come either from profits on foreign manufactured goods (which can not continue with the trade balance in nose-bleed territory), or rebuilding disaster sites (human or naturally induced, it matters not) with gubmint contracts. In other words, productivity is of mythical proportions.US majors are bailing on pension plans because they can't pull off another ENRON swindle, and want to be out of the way before Phase III of the grizzly gets underway in earnest.They don't have to outrun the bear. They just have to outrun John Q. Rook (1/17/06; 20:48:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 140564) .,. Are derivitives the mutual assured destruction of the financial world?Is there a way to protect parts of the derivitive structure if it goes awry? How did they limit the enron fallout? I would like to see a flow chart of money in a derivitive structure. Or a flow chart of connections. Is it that the big banks and financial orgs get loans to patch things up, and it is only all the people that take the loss? Must be some self healing properties to derivitives arrangements that keep meltdown from occuring. USAGOLD Daily Market Report (1/17/06; 17:07:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 140563) Page Update! http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlThe Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.TUESDAY Market ExcerptsJanuary 17 (from MarketWatch) -- COMEX February gold futures fell $2.70 to close at $554.30 after climbing as high as $561.50 during the regular session, and as high as $565.50 in overnight trading Monday, as increasing tension surrounding Iran's nuclear program and attacks on Nigerian oil installations raised the price of oil to a three-month high."The precious metals may finally be suffering from the rarified air that they find themselves in at this time," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities. But "there's certainly no cause for alarm," he added. "The markets are overbought and a pullback from these levels is absolutely necessary for the trends to continue their upward paths.""Firm oil and energy prices and related geopolitical tensions (ongoing concerns about Iran's pursuit of nuclear-power development) should ensure that the price of gold remains underpinned," according to economists at Action Economics."News last week that South African gold output fell 11.3% in volume terms in November illustrates the constrained supply side of the equation, too."Oil futures traded above $65 a barrel Tuesday, at levels not seen in over three months.---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)--- Goldilox (1/17/06; 16:30:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 140562) BROKEBACK REAL ESTATE - The Tragic Tale of American Land and Gold http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2006/0117.html snip:Have you seen the movie yet? You know, THE MOVIE. Well, this story starts in 1963, just like that story, but has less alcohol, less smoking, and is unlikely to get any awards. However, just like that story, this story probably will end with someone living in a trailer with nothing to their name in a few years.You may have read some of the articles lately about the Dow and Gold, and where the market stands today. I got the idea to look at U.S. average home sales and Gold, so I did a little research at the Mortgage Bankers Associate site, combined with some historical data on the price of Gold. What I discovered may not be as shocking as the love that dare not speaks it name, however it certainly indicates to me when it comes to real estate, and gold, a lot of people do get screwed.In 1963, according to what data I could find, the average cost of a home in the United States was $19,300. We know that Gold was fixed at a price of $35.00 an ounce so it is easy to see that the average American home in 1963 was 551 troy ounces of Gold.From 1963 to 1969, the average cost of a home in the United States increased by $8,600, or 44%, or 245 troy ounces of Gold. From what I can tell, in 1969, the year of my birth, a home in the United States was on average 797 troy ounces of Gold. If you use the price of Gold today, say $550, then the average home was nearly $440,000. Suddenly, this home in 1969 is not so cheap after all, yet I am sure if you asked someone about home prices in 1969 they probably would have considered them dirt cheap.By 1980, the relationship between home value and gold had changed considerably. Even though homes had appreciated another 270% during the decade, with an average home going from $27,900 in 1969 to $83,000 in 1980, the price of Gold exploded even more until this average home cost only 127 ounces of Gold!!!! Homes had depreciated 85% in value of gold from their high in 1969, even as they appreciated in U.S. dollars by 270%! Talk about smoke and mirrors!-GoldiloxTribble's anaysis goes on from here, and discusses the relationship on into the present. A very nice perspective from one who calls himself, "a proud hoarder of what was once illegal money!" ge (1/17/06; 15:00:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 140561) Belgian You write:***The sudden change from a goldprice anticipating the US-$ exchange rate to a goldprice that rises in "all" currencies...is NOT a natural market fenomenon but a POLICY change !!!***Gold rises against all fiat money, and this not natural? Really? Are you serious? Belgian (1/17/06; 11:31:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 140560) Gold On top of the ECB's balance - activa-, stands number 1 > Gold and gold receivebles at a constant of 15% of the total activa. Normally, one should expect this gold post on the bottom of the page (left colum).The ECB's activa (EMU) do evolve in function of the world's goldprice in euro and balances this activa/passiva through MTM the gold to worldprice. This suggests (rather very strongly) that the ECB (through BIS) is (very) active in het gold pricing market, in function of where it wants its book-keeping to evolve to.The sudden change from a goldprice anticipating the US-$ exchange rate to a goldprice that rises in "all" currencies...is NOT a natural market fenomenon but a POLICY change !!! Gold wealth reserve, NOW...and currencies later.Offering the gold-euro to Iran is certainly on the negociation tables, somewhere, somehow ! Most probably, Angela is carrying it with her (?).The gold-euro competes with the threath of military force...gold against bombs.But the whole Middle East should be concerned in solving the Irak + Iran problems and at the same time the reliable flow of oil to all competing blocks on our planet. Is the US-$-IMS ready for concessions ??? If not, it will take some more time and some more events to give the whole matter another occasion to restart negociations...around the very same fundamentals of value (gold) for value (oil/gas).In the mean time, the oilprice will continue to rise as to make the oilprice having a significant impact on the competing Asians so as to bring them on the negociation table with a somewhat other attitude.Etc...etc...Watch the main trends and let's try to "understand" what exactly those trends do mean. Clink! (1/17/06; 11:10:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 140559) Jevons' Paradox http://www.321energy.com/editorials/pfeiffer/pfeiffer011406.html The attached URL gives much food for thought. He is talking particularly about energy, but it is applicable to many other aspects of our civilization.Snip :-It is in the nature of complex systems to grow and burgeon until fundamental flaws bring their downfall. Complex systems are rather susceptible to sudden, large scale change. They handle slow and subtle changes smoothly, but quick, large scale change does not leave a complex system an adequate opportunity to adapt......There is simply no way to anticipate a systemic breakdown. You can hazard guesses about some of the effects and prepare for those; but you can be sure that you will run into something unforeseen, and that the effects you did foresee will be complicated by other chains of effect beyond your ability to forecast.C! In other words, don't try to make long-term predictions because it is always the event out of left field which will effect the most dramatic change.And ----...for those who say that a technofix [to the energy shortage caused by peak oil] would work if we also practiced conservation, I submit that it is impossible for our current socioeconomic system to conserve. For one thing, conservation could endanger the economic growth upon which this system is so dependant. And even if we did succeed in conserving energy in some ways, Jevon's Paradox implies that total energy consumption will still increase.--end snip.From the Wikipedia link in the article :-...as technological improvements increase the efficiency with which a resource is used, total consumption of that resource may increase, rather than decrease. It is historically called Jevons Paradox since it ran counter to Jevons' own intuition, but it is not a paradox at all and is well understood by modern economic theory which shows that improved resource efficiency may trigger a change in the overall consumption of that resource, but the direction of that change depends on other economic variablesC! So if we try to apply this to gold as a more efficient holder of wealth, its use should increase, no ? Goldilox (1/17/06; 09:21:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 140558) Currencies and gold @ Belgian,Which is why the Islamic Dinar needed to be crushed post haste by the FIAT printsters! Unlike the Euro, which advertises, "we have value because of gold in our vaults", the Islamic Gold Dinar was to be, I understood, either "convertible" or actually minted gold.That was the differentiation I was trying to make from my also "flu-addled" mind. Goldilox (1/17/06; 09:15:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 140557) References @ Belgian,or better yet, refer to the article and refrain for attributing the ideas directly to the poster. A good referrence is much better than none at all. Belgian (1/17/06; 07:48:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 140556) @Goldilox I understand that you are rarely fully agreeing with the others'opinions, you are providing us. And I'm not (always) reflecting on your personal thoughts but on the thoughts of others you reproduce. All these mainstream thoughts (bullion desk) are all along that same old goldline and rarely diverge from it.These floods of instantly changing opinions must drive one crazy as to never detect the real fundamentals that are being unfolded. So in the future I will not refer to any poster name or article, anymore...as to avoid misunderstandings. Belgian (1/17/06; 04:20:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 140555) @Goldi Here we go again...It is NOT about currencies and gold...but about GOLD > period !Gold first NOW...and currencies, MUCH later.That's exactly what is behind gold's "revaluation".That's why the latest gold-statements indicate that it is GOLD that is wanted...NOT more and more of the same confetti.All confetties are worthless when they exclude gold. And it was the $-IMS that was based on the exclusion of gold in its right function. Gold and fiat fiduciary units are NOT going to "extremes" but simply transition into another system based on gold as wealth and not gold, the money.That's what < gold's behavior > is trying to tell, all of us. Goldilox (01/17/06; 03:07:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 140554) Euro @ Belgian,I consider teh failure of teh dollar more important than the rise of the Euro, but that difference may just be one of perspective.An Asian or Islamic currency evolution might be an even greater threat to $-IMS than the Euro, which I see as different colored paper from the same banksters that control the FED.The great game, as I view it, is about whose pockets control what. Goldilox (01/17/06; 02:59:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 140553) Great game @Belgian,"And I'm (personally) not looking for ideal moments to step into the accumulation of the precious. I'm in it for 100%...and STAY in it,"As am I. That's what I've been trying to tell you for weeks now.My only PM purchases these days are when someone pays me in FIAT for some contract obligation and I need to convert it to "MY bank."Just because I post someone's opinion, doesn't automatically make it mine. That's my complaint with your assumption. I often post things to demonstrate the diversity of thought on the street, not because I am in complete agreement. Goldilox (01/17/06; 02:50:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 140552) Foreign currency As the biggest loan-shark on the block, one has to wonder how China plans to deal with welchers when the paper burns.Breaking legs is oh, so western. Maybe water torture?Will they take Puplava's advice and start buying all the water companies? Belgian (01/17/06; 02:46:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 140551) @Goldilox You are looking much too close at the ball and forget too often to look at the (great) game.And on a regulary basis, you (and the absolute majority)deny the existance of the euro-gold concept as the new force in the gold game and determinant for gold's building future. And I'm (personally) not looking for ideal moments to step into the accumulation of the precious. I'm in it for 100%...and STAY in it. I am NOT speculating/gambling on those minor goldprice up/down slopes (bull/bear/bubble) caused by "events". What is the big deal of having the ball (goldprice) going temporary out of the big gold playing field (revaluation) and then back in, again ? Am not looking to speculate with leverage on the goldprice over/under reactions and running the risk of excluding myself from the big game, because of an emotional mistake (wrong position-gamble).I think that you certainly agree with this at the moments you can put your doubts about the real nature of the gold game aside ? We smile together and enjoy having the luck for being able to share our precious thoughts, at this unique CPM place. TownCrier (01/17/06; 01:03:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 140550) Foreign Currency Piles Up in China http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/16/AR2006011600450_pf.html SHANGHAI, Jan. 16 -- China's state media on Monday reported that the country's foreign currency reserves swelled by more than one-third last year to a record $819 billion as its factories churned out goods for markets around the world...The details disclosed in Monday's state press accounts and reported Sunday on the Central Bank's Web site confirmed that China is on track this year to exceed $1 trillion in foreign exchange reserves. That would probably elevate China to the biggest holder of foreign currency, eclipsing Japan, which has $847 billion.China and Japan have propped up the value of the dollar and financed U.S. spending by continuing to absorb U.S. debt via the purchase of Treasury bills. Yet these purchases have sown unease, with some in Washington complaining that the United States has relinquished control of its destiny to foreigners.^---(from url)---^Control your own destiny to the maximum extent possible -- choose gold to ensure that the value of your savings is never confused and lost with the fate of bad debt.R. TownCrier (01/17/06; 00:12:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 140549) David Linkley, on shorts My apologies, but I don't have the foggiest idea how to go about interpreting your follow-up question. You've made a general statement about commitments of traders (COT) -- focused upon profit maximization, but as you should know, for each contract there's both a long and a short, and only one side can be a "winner" under any given price movement. So how is it that the presence of loss-yielding short commitments, as during the past 5-year secular bull up from 2001's $250 low, leads you to "believe other motives are at play" any more or less so than the presence of loss-generating long commitments during the whole of the previous 20-year secular bear market down from 1980's $850 high?And maybe an equally valid point to ponder is why you would perceive that the weekly reported "observable" commitments of traders staking their positions through exchange-traded contracts warrant the special mention you've given them as opposed to the less visible positions being staked by players in the OTC arena? Particularly when your original post implied a potential need for a German-led physical-doling bailout, which is certainly not what one would expect as being either a necessary or useful action for the succor of traders on the short side of COMEX contracts.To be sure, since the $250 low five years ago, dozens of contracts have had their moment in the active spotlight, each in turn passing into expiry and obscurity, none of which have been the instrument of the overhyped "Mother of all Short Squeezes" that seems to be ballyhooed all over the internet wherever goldbugs gather. This even as the price has doubled its way cleanly through many of the so-called "critical" levels that supposedly represented certain and sudden "death" for the shorts.That's merely one of the reasons why I said I've typically been of the opinion that "all the talk of troubled shorts is way overdone".If it brings you any comfort, you can certainly seize upon a similar application of the rationale to dismiss the media's standard mantra among analysts when they try to suggest the counterpoint that the market is vulnerable due to such a predonderance of longs that it might lead to the mother of all profit-taking liquidations. That talk, too, is way overdone.In fact, everything COMEX-related is way overdone.My contention is that the most significant long positions are the ones that are physically held. And when it comes to shorts, the most significant positions are the ones commited OTC. And since we have no ability to ferret out the whos, whys and wherefors of those agreements and their counterparties, talk of squeezes and bailouts are merely fanciful at best, distracting at worst.I would submit to you that all idle speculation on the fate of OTC gold derivatives and their conditions of settlement will never tell you anything as useful as simply using this same energy to reach a basic understanding of the political and economic advantages (and hence the implementation motivations) behind having price-liberalized physical-based MTM gold reserves among the various weath-producers as fully endorsed and supported by some significant central banks of the world.This is probably too much of a rambling presentation to do you much good. I've had the flu for the past week and still find the formulation of my waking thoughts (as often as not) to be scarcely better than a half-baked product of a fevered brain.R. ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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