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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 8/17/2005
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Goldilox (8/17/05; 21:18:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 135074)
Share bopping
@ Clink,

"I note with a degree of resignation that the shares have been bopped especially hard just as we come up to options expiration. Same old, same old."

If you're right, Friday Noon to 4PM is the time to buy them back. Most were looking pretty "toppy" in the last week.

If you're also right about the shortening time frame, one of these expiry days the options writers will be burned. Most of them employ the strategy that they will be right 90% of the time and cover themselves by buying a cheap call at the next exercise point to limit their losses.

As my Pappy used to say, "IF is a mighty big word for only two letters:

Sundeck (8/17/05; 20:15:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 135073)
Sons of Gwalia - Results of a toxic hedge-book
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200508/s1440456.htm
More on this will be coming out over the next few days, including details of the toxic hedge-book that lead to SGW's demise. (Details in "Subscription Only" articles in today's Aust Fin Rev).

...the results of gambles-gone-bad in the great big papery derivatives casino where (not) everyone emerges a smiling winner!

:-(

TownCrier (8/17/05; 19:47:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 135072)
The ore, the mining, & the poor
http://www.voanews.com/english/2005-08-17-voa62.cfm
The majority of the world's gold comes from some of the poorest countries, but local mining communities often reap just a fraction of the riches that lie beneath their soils. Mali is no exception. The West African nation ranks near the bottom of just about every U.N. development indicator, even though its the world's ninth-largest gold producer. The southern village of Sanso struggles to capitalize on Mali's gold rush.

Sanso's Mayor says the Morila mine has brought little to the village.

...But rural communities like Sanso are beginning to negotiate for a fairer share of the country's gold wealth and to make foreign mining companies accountable for potentially devastating, long-term health and environmental damages from their operations.

The Morila gold mine also offers a cautionary tale for villages once united in poverty, and now divided by wealth.

...the mine has created jealousy and enormous divisions among villagers who have profited from the mine and those who have not.

...during an earlier power-point presentation at Morila's air-conditioned headquarters, Mr. Toure said the mine has already invested $1.2-million in a hodgepodge of development projects. Besides the schools and mosque cited by mayor Mariko, he said the money has been spent to upgrade a local health center, and build community gardens and a rice paddy.

While Morila and its miners' quarters are lit up at night, Sanso, about seven-miles away, has no electricity or paved roads.

And while some villagers, like Chary Mariko, 27, have found well-paying jobs at the mine, many others have not.

Mr. Mariko said working in the mine is very difficult. He works a 16-hour shift and then gets two days off. He says he has not suffered any health problems mining at Morila. And his 300-dollar monthly salary represents a small fortune in Mali, where the average per-capita income is 250 dollars a year.

...Across the globe, communities are taking a growing interest in local gold mines. In Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, and elsewhere, they are demanding better pay and better environmental and health standards, although not always successfully.

Striking miners at Morila last year got the mine to establish a $500,000 community development fund to be tapped after the mine closes in 2011.

^-----(from url)----^

When the mine finally reaches its point of exhaustion and closure, the local community may (or may not) have achieved an overall improvement in local wealth and infrastructure. What will investors have received by the holding of their shares? In the end all mines eventually dwindle to the exhaustion point, and as they do, share prices tend to reflect that eventuality.

Choose to get your hands on their product while the getting is good. For how much longer will labor be so relatively cheap, and the supply what it is today?

R.

PRITCHO (8/17/05; 18:35:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 135071)
Re The Markets - - - From Richard Russells Latest remarks - -
http://www.dowtheoryletters.com/DTLOL.nsf
Richard talking plainly again - - -
Snip:
My old friend, the late Elliott Janeway, one time business editor of Time magazine, once told me, "Dick, when the President is in trouble, the stock market is in trouble."

Well, right now, the President is in trouble. And the trouble is finally breaking out into the open. Strangely, it's starting with a 48 year old woman name Cindy Sheehan, who's son was killed last year in Iraq.

Sheehan has taken an anti-war stand just outside of Bush's Crawford Ranch. She says she'll stay there until the President meets her face to face. Since Bush has nothing to gain from meeting her, and a meeting could be a public relations disaster -- he's staying away. He's not going to be pressured by some 48-year old lady. But something has clicked. Suddenly anti-war groups are surfacing around the country.

The unbelievably cowardly Democrats up to now have avoided the whole Iraq situation. When cornered, they've come up with such lame answers as -- "Now that we're there, I guess we should stay there until the war is won." But it looks increasingly as though the war is not going to be won. Meanwhile, US casualties continue to build, and the situation in Iraq continues to deteriorate. Nobody knows how many Iraqis have been killed -- estimates run upward of 25,000. On top of that, Iraqi infrastructure has fallen apart. Electricity and drinking water are available only sporadically.

The Bush people's desperate answer to the gathering mess is to pressure the Iraqis to come up with a constitution, any constitution, and to build a serviceable Iraqi police force. But the Bush people are in a no-win situation. If they stay in Iraq, the odds are that they'll get nowhere except to build more casualties. If they leave, it will appear that they've lost, and Iraq will probably splinter and fall apart. Actually, if the Americans leave, it looks increasingly as though Iraq will dissolve into civil war.

Worst of all for Bush, the latest polls show that only 35 percent of Americans now believe that we should never have attacked Iraq in the first place.

Thus Bush's dream of being "America's War President" and of finishing what his dad failed to do -- is turning into a military and a political nightmare. Bush would have done well to study the "law of unintended consequences."

PRITCHO (8/17/05; 18:30:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 135070)
@Goldilox - - - - Your 051
Not a very convincing reply -- TFN

Clink! (8/17/05; 18:02:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 135069)
@ Topaz
Thanks, Sir T ! I follow your drift, now. I had just assumed these were the resonant peaks of the pennant formation POG has been in this year, and it completely passed me by. (Come to think about it, I do seem to remember someone at the Forum mentioning this before .....(!) The connection does seem to be rather striking - I wonder why there is so much higher a correlation now than in years past.
I think there is a fair chance that you will be right about the upcoming $6 days, although I would couch it more in terms of having broken out of a pennant (rather earlier than we might have expected) and are returning to the line of resistance to test it is now support. Or whatever - TA in a rigged market is more to do with the perception that the riggers want to portray. I note with a degree of resignation that the shares have been bopped especially hard just as we come up to options expiration. Same old, same old. The only consolation is that it seems to have happened much closer this month than usual. POG's strength helps, to be sure, but we can always hope !

C!

spotlight (8/17/05; 16:17:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 135068)
Inflation/gold
Inflation surged today much more than expected, however the market told us (by dropping gold $5.50) that gold is a very bad investment against inflation. All those that believe the saying "Let the maket tell you" must now believe that gold is dead. All those that believe that the gold market is "managed" will ignore the market's message and rely on the fundamentals which no government or market "managers" can overcome with deceptive manipulations. CN.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (8/17/05; 15:39:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 135067)
A good treasure will be as vibrant tomorrow as it was yesteryear
http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html

"Treasure chests throughout history
have been filled with gold, and not by idle choice."

-- R. Strauss

TownCrier (8/17/05; 15:35:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 135066)
Archaeologists Find Ancient Treasure
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050817/ap_on_sc/bulgaria_golden_treasure
(AP) Aug 17 -- Bulgarian archaeologists have unearthed about 15,000 tiny golden pieces that date back to the end of the third millennium B.C. � a find they said Wednesday matches the famous treasure of Troy.

The golden ornaments, estimated to be between 4,100 and 4,200 years old, have been unearthed gradually during the past year from an ancient tomb near the central village of Dabene, about 75 miles east of the capital...

"The buried man was cremated, and then an earth mound was piled over his ashes and his riches, suggesting that he was part of these people's social elite..."

"This treasure is a bit older than Schliemann's finds in Troy, and contains much more golden ornaments," Nikolov said.

The treasure consists of miniature golden rings, some so finely crafted that the point where the ring is welded is invisible with an ordinary microscope.

"This is the oldest golden treasure ever found in Bulgaria after the Varna necropolis," Dimitrov said.

The golden artifacts from a vast burial complex discovered in the 1970s near the Black Sea port of Varna date back to the end of the fifth millennium B.C. and are internationally renowned as the world's oldest golden treasure.

---(see url for full article)---

Gold stands the test of time. Had the man been buried with his IOUs, there isn't a legal system anywhere that could enforce delivery against those contracts for the benefit of his heirs.

Choose your savings as carefully as you choose your treasure.

R.

USAGOLD Daily Market Report (8/17/05; 15:23:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 135065)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

August 16 (from DowJones) -- Gold futures got pummeled in New York Wednesday, declining with the euro and crude oil, with much of the selling said to be in the form of long liquidation.

The most-active December gold contract fell $6.30 to $445.20.

Traders have been blaming weakness on the softer euro and stronger dollar since the open. "Gold started weakly in response to strength in the U.S. dollar," said Dan Vaught, futures analyst with A.G. Edwards.

"The dollar has been able to sustain a bit of a bounce after being under quite a bit of pressure in July and early August. That got the gold market off on the wrong foot." The metal then extended its loss when a rally attempt in oil failed and the metal turned "solidly south," said Vaught.

As gold was closing, the euro had fallen to $1.2274 from $1.2364 late Tuesday and September crude was down $2.38 to $63.70.

During the course of the day, several traders and analysts commented that much of the selling was coming in the form of liquidation and profit taking after December gold had run up to a five-month high of $455.30 on Friday.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)----

Topaz (8/17/05; 14:14:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 135064)
2023...flations 101.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=TNXY&o=&a=V%3A60&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=CANDLE&st=

The only thing thats inflating here is TALK of inflation.

Federal_Reserves (8/17/05; 14:01:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 135063)
Protect the Borders
Well at least the elites in Congress are consistent. They can't protect our borders in the USA from invasion any better than IRAQ's. Richardson, declared a state of emergency in New Mexico, and the guy is part Latino! Just about everywhere you go in the USA now, illegals are flooding in looking for jobs...or a place to rob. Folks are getting FED up. Want to be President in 2008? Support a crack down on illegals....

Border emergency declared in New Mexico
Governor says area 'devastated' by human and drug smuggling

Saturday, August 13, 2005; Posted: 1:39 p.m. EDT (17:39 GMT)

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Richardson discusses border security (4:27)
YOUR E-MAIL ALERTS

New Mexico
Bill Richardson
or Create Your Own
Manage Alerts | What Is This? (CNN) -- New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson declared a state of emergency Friday in four counties along the Mexican border that he said have been "devastated" by crimes such as the smuggling of drugs and illegal immigrants.

The declaration said the region "has been devastated by the ravages and terror of human smuggling, drug smuggling, kidnapping, murder, destruction of property and the death of livestock. ...

"[It] is in an extreme state of disrepair and is inadequately funded or safeguarded to protect the lives and property of New Mexican citizens."

2023 (8/17/05; 13:51:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 135062)
'inflation'
In checking various charts today of US stocks I own or I am watching, I find it interesting that the US govt report out today shows increasing 'inflation' but stocks / commodities that are 'inflation' hedges are getting wacked.

Also, I wonder how much money the banksters created today to take a wack at the oil price - down over %4 to US$63.50 or so. But still the trend is up. Looking at a reverse head and shoulders chart posted on www.jsmineset.com a day or two ago, the neck line was broken in the US$62 area. It would be normal to have a retreat to the neckline before moving higher. Sinclair shows the formation gives a target price around US$77.

Have a good day all.
2023

shawnis (8/17/05; 13:40:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 135061)
Surowiecki on Gold
http://www.newyorker.com/printables/talk/041129ta_talk_surowiecki
I was Googling "Goebbels greater fool" and came across this page.

This guy really doesn't like goldbugs. You can almost taste how he despises us.

He misses a few points on gold, though, especially on how it's the currency of freedom.

Topaz (8/17/05; 13:24:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 135060)
@Clink!
Assuming you mean the manic-depressive PoG action coincident with the Comex Delivery window...
...we sit now half way through Aug on this current uptick, the Channel is far steeper than those of the previous ones and indications are that, to get it done (deliveries for Aug) we'd be looking for a "minimum" 4K more.

This is all consistent with the perceived (lo and behold Pritcho, the ie and c rule!) Bullion drought we currently are experiencing.

Little snapshot within BIG Picture though SirC! as todays action reminded us.

Aug will be good for a few more +$6 Days yet I feel ...maybe the odd +$60 ;-)

TownCrier (8/17/05; 13:19:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 135059)
Inflation scare drags U.S. Treasury debt lower
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh51413_2005-08-17_18-46-38_n17258447_newsml
NEW YORK, Aug 17 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices retreated on Wednesday after a report showing July producer prices grew at double the rate forecast, suggesting the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates.

Price gains excluding food and energy, which the central bank monitors closely, grew at four times the rate estimated on Wall Street.

...The central bank raised its target federal funds rate for the tenth straight time last week, bringing it to 3.50 percent.

Treasury yields had spiked to four-month highs last week as signs that growth was picking up even as inflation stayed contained, sparking talk of a "Goldilocks" economic scenario.

But that picture has started to unravel in the last few sessions, with data from the retail sector falling short of expectations and many worrying that heavily indebted U.S. consumers might be starting to falter.

One major obstacle to solid economic growth is the oil sector, where new record highs have become an almost weekly occurrence.

The price of a barrel of crude touched $67 last week...

"It's not so much the inflation rate to date that is concerning the Fed, it's the underlying inflation pressures and what that might mean for future inflation," noted Josh Stiles, senior bond strategist at IDEAglobal.

^---(from url)----^

Choose gold -- the time-tested classic hedge against suffering inflationary losses in the purchasing power of one's savings.

R.

TownCrier (8/17/05; 13:12:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 135058)
INFLATION WATCH: July producer prices jump on energy costs
http://today.reuters.com/news/NewsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-08-17T162942Z_01_N17225833_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-ECONOMY-DC.XML
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Soaring energy costs pushed U.S. producer prices up by TWICE as much as expected in July, with core prices excluding food and energy also flashing a warning of future inflation.

Prices for finished energy goods jumped 4.4 percent, the biggest rise since October 2004...

"There are pipeline inflation pressures out there. Business pricing power continues to rise as the economy grows above trend and there are upside risks going forward that eventually will show up," said Morgan Stanley economist Ted Wiesman.

BONDS JOLTED ...the broader sense that strong U.S. growth could fuel inflation in the future startled fixed income markets.

Bond prices slipped...

^---(from url)----^

mikal (08/17/05; 12:02:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 135057)
@Camel
Re: Gasoline purchases by credit card increasing
I would expect this to reverse sooner than expected- September is the month in which credit card issuers
are expected to double, on average, the minimum monthly
card payment. If true, a card with a balance of $8,000
currently billed @ around $200 would become a $400 bill.
Multiply this by 2 or more and you get the average increase for many U.S. card holders.

mdgc (08/17/05; 11:42:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 135056)
renminbi revauation continues
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/
The quote for the Chinese yuan (renminbi) changed today.

The new quote is 8.094 - 8.104 to the US dollar.

It has been at 8.1011 - 8.1211 since the late July revaluation. Before that the rate had been about 8.28.

Goldilox (08/17/05; 11:19:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 135055)
FACTBOX-Failed overseas bids by Chinese state oil firms
snip:

SINGAPORE, Aug 17 (Reuters) - Chinese state companies suffered the latest blow in their attempts to acquire foreign natural resources assets after CNOOC ((0883.HK))(CEO,Trade) failed in its $18.5 billion bid for U.S. oil producer Unocal Corp. (UCL,Trade).

The following tracks the series of setbacks faced by Chinese state firms over the past three years.

(For related story, "ANALYSIS-China oil firms need more bite in foreign takeovers", please click on [nSP208959].

QENOS IN AUSTRALIA - China National Chemical Corp. suspended a plan to bid for Qenos, a petrochemical joint-venture between Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM,Trade) and Orica Ltd. ((ORI.AX)). The move came after it failed to secure a feedstock supply guarantee from Exxon Mobil via a future natural gas pipeline linking Papua New Guinea with Australia, a source close to the process said this month.

THAI PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY PCL - In July, China's state-backed CITIC Resources Holdings Ltd. ((1205.HK)) dropped a bid for Thai Petrochemical Industry PCL ((TPI.BK)), Thailand's largest corporate defaulter. Sources familiar with the situation cited the Thai government's unwillingness to sell the company to a foreign firm.

POGO ASSETS IN THAILAND - A Chinese consortium including state-owned China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) was in the running for Thai oil and gas assets of U.S. energy firm Pogo Producing Co (PPP,Trade). In June, Thailand's state-run PTTEP Offshore Investment Co. Ltd. and Japan's Mitsui acquired the assets for $820 million.

NORANDA INC. - State-owned China Minmetals Corp. abandoned in March a multibillion-dollar plan to take over the large Canadian copper and zinc miner, Noranda (NRD,Trade).

YUKOS ASSETS - China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC), parent of PetroChina ((0857.HK))(PTR,Trade), might get a share of Russian oil company YUKOS's ((YUKO.RTS)) main producing assets as they were broken up, Russian officials said earlier this year. But talk of a buy-in has faded as the process became entangled with domestic mergers.

INCHON REFINERY - State-owned Chinese oil group Sinochem's $669 million bid to buy South Korea's 275,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) oil refiner Inchon failed in January.

PT MEDCO ENERGI INTERNATIONAL TBK STAKE - PetroChina was among the losing bidders last year for a stake in Medco ((MEDC.JK)), Indonesia's largest listed oil and gas producer.

KASHAGAN BID - CNOOC Ltd. and Sinopec Corp. ((0386.HK))(SNP,Trade) ((600028.SS)) were thwarted in 2003 in their attempt to buy a BG Group ((BG.L)) stake in Kazakhstan's giant Kashagan field. Existing partners of the project blocked the deal.

RUSSIA'S SLAVNEFT - CNPC failed in an attempt to buy into oil firm Slavneft in Moscow's biggest privatisation of 2002 due to political reasons.

CNPC's efforts to acquire small Russian oil firm Stimul have also been blocked by the Kremlin.

HUSKY INTEREST - PetroChina and CNOOC Ltd. tried in 2002 to buy tycoon Li Ka-shing's Husky Energy Inc. ((HSE.TO)), Canada's No. 5 oil producer, but failed to agree on a price, sources said.

-Goldilox

Looks like all that "Monopoly Money" we have been giving the Chinese for DVDs and Flat Screens is, well, only good for board games and by some strange coincidence, Treasury purchases, as governments all around the world are telling them them "No thanks".

Camel (08/17/05; 09:46:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 135054)
Deferred payments
"windfall oil profits have apparently boosted physical gold demand from the Middle East"

This brief snip from a news article maybe says a lot about the oil- gold relationship and a simple mechanism by which gold could be repriced.

Another recent news article states that gasoline purchases made by credit card are increasing 'suggesting deferred payments are part of the reason the economy hasn't been much affected by raising oil prices

"The mills of the gods grind slowly, but the grind exceedingly fine ."

Clink! (08/17/05; 09:42:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 135053)
@ Sir Topaz - You're exuberant, but ...
I'm just confused. What you posted looked fairly significant, but I'm not sure I get the gist of the correlation. Could you add another three or four sentences to explain, please ?
TIA,
C!

cmsue (8/17/05; 07:28:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 135052)
Which Country is exporting and importing of gold, world gold mine maps.
Can anyone of you can give me the direction where can i find out all the latest information for 2005.

Goldilox (8/17/05; 06:29:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 135051)
Link post # 135038
@ Pritcho,

The "link" was purely topical, no table settings were planned.

Topaz (8/17/05; 03:08:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 135050)
OK, I'm exuberated.
http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/Gold.jpg
Arthurs Chart gives us a look at the maturing relationship between PoG and Comex Delivery months. Albeit unintentioned, the Channels he's included coincide nicely and are cause for (I'd think) some exuberation ...definitely the rational kind!

Topaz (8/17/05; 02:46:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 135049)
DTFA - 2.
...see previous link.

With the most active Month (Dec) -w a y y- off in the distance (currently speaking) we might just see some Backwardation in PoG in the coming days-weeks, as Futures traders lose their nerve. Just maybe!

We watch enthralled.

Belgian (8/17/05; 01:53:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 135048)
Goldilox-Pritcho
I do interprete your postings as evidence for the framework in wich the ongoing change of " gold-pricing " is taking place.

We are all supposed to percept the $-IMS to be (to remain) in what is called a Bretton Woods - II ambiance (unspoken policy). And it is exactly in this ambiance that a very particular faction (factions) of the gold-pricers are evolving. And indeed Sirs, it is not only the goldpricing that is changing.

Many astute fish in the monetary/financial/economic bowls are getting increasingly worried that "the" system (to be percepted as BW-II) is heading to a cliff (abyss). Is that cliff perhaps the USDX-80 maginot line !? Watch that chart over the past 35 years again and do some fresh interpreting.

Those particular (invisible) gold-pricers, certainly knew already for quite some time that the $-IMS was bound to go right towards te abyss. The Asian-factor...!

The gold-pricing shifts progressively out of the paper circus (Randy-LBMA stats) towards ...gold the tangible metal...as wealth in possession (property). When desertification rises, one trades less water paper contracts and starts stocking "the water" !

A lot of POG/relative-charts are saying so. But as long as the perception of the BW-II remains valid...the goldprice (not the pricing) will not sound the alarm.

Right,...this is pure A/FOA theory, once again. But isn't it happening !!!??? IT IS !

It is, because the global political changes are a juicy feeding bottom for this. And the gold-matters are only a fraction of this changes that are taking place. As goldphiles, we look into the future, without staying glued to the past.

CB-goldsales, have very little to do with "sales" but...WITH THE CHANGE IN GOLD PRICING !!! It will be when people see a dramatic new goldprice, that the consiousness of the new gold-pricing will wake up for the general public.

It is NOT "gold" (the force/power of gold) in itself that is changing...it is how we/the world, look "at" gold AND ITS PRICING, that is changing !

The same is hapening with black gold. At the of this decade w're gone look at oil in a complete different way. The "pricing" of this particular wealth-generating commidity is changing, progressively and will certainly climax.

Thanks for your great posts guys.

Topaz (8/17/05; 01:44:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 135047)
Dec too far away?
http://www.crbtrader.com/data/default.asp?page=quote&sym=GCJ5&mode=d
Vol on the Aug Contract posted as 61 and Deliveries 51 (Aug total 7311) would indicate the Aug Contract is now trading Spot delivered ...
...well, I don't think so ...given the "average" 10k/Mth AND I'm thinking 20K +or- we may well see materialise from the Aug options.
If PoG can generate a $6 up-day in NY trading on 51 deliveries, what will it take to get 30oddK done?

At least TWO +$6 day's I'd reckon ;-)

PRITCHO (8/17/05; 00:15:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 135046)
@Goldilock -- - Excellent Posts
Today from you with plenty of thought.I am concerned though about post 135038 where you somehow link me in with he who sometimes misses his medication.

Hopefully you made a slip here ? -if you think not please explain :)

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