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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/17/2003 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Black Blade (1/17/03; 23:04:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 94837) Market Wrap Up – Hartman http://www.financialsense.com/Market/commentary.htm Buy Real Estate With GoldSnippit:Now let's take a look at the average price of gold for the last twenty years. Look at the period from 1982 to 1996. There were only three years that gold exceeded $400 per ounce. As a rule for the period it appears that gold was pegged to not go above $400. Then the following period from 1997 to last year where it appears that gold was pegged to stay under $300 per ounce. The strong dollar policy of the Clinton Administration which included a cap on gold prices, an increase in the money supply, and a lowering of interest rates has had much to do in the relationship of real estate prices, to interest rates, to the price of gold. Back in the early eighties you could buy the average house in San Diego for about 300 ounces of gold. Today the same house would cost four times that amount or roughly 1200 ounces of gold. Another interesting thing to note is that for the 14 years from 1982 to 1996 home prices increased 70%, but in the most recent six years from 1996 to present prices have gone up 117%. It was half the amount of time and a much bigger increase in prices.Over the next few years I would expect the numbers to come back more in line where a home would cost somewhere around 400-500 ounces of gold (reversion to the mean). If housing sees a 20% decline and gold goes to $700 per ounce it would mean that our $370,000 home is now about $300,000 and could be purchased with roughly 430 ounces of gold. The only other scenario that I can envision is where home prices are stagnant for the next few years and gold goes up substantially, which would have the same net effect. I sold a rental property and used every penny to buy gold bullion. In a few years the gold will hopefully buy a much nicer property. I would have sold our primary residence and bought gold with the equity, but I like being married, so I had to ditch the plan! In the final analysis, be cautious when you think of real estate as a tangible asset. It is a hard asset, but usually with debt attached and subject to interest rate exposure, which dictates how expensive that debt will be to carry. When interest rates go up it will be tough to find buyers who can afford the payments at today's prices.Black Blade: An interesting read to be sure. There's an interesting table as well. The article hits on several of the same points I discussed here before such as real estate prices rising faster than income. The real estate bubble is unsustainable and already there are indications that the bubble is beginning to deflate. Foreclosures have risen to record levels and are increasing as the "wealth effect" of the stock market has all but disappeared, unemployment is rising (the real unemployment that is), and debt-ridden consumers are tapped out. Is it any wonder that the inflation data does not pass the "smell test"? Is it any wonder that the administration is proposing such an aggressive fiscal plan? Is it any wonder that the US is gearing up for war to secure the "prize" (cheap oil) and to distract ravaged investors from domestic economic devastation? We have our collective "backs against the wall". balzac (1/17/03; 22:25:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 94836) PREEMPTIVE STRIKES @A NATION OF ONE -BRAVO!!! Pre-emptive strikes are based on the presumption that might is right and will always prevail.World opinion is a force which may not be measured in planes or firepower but is based in reason, history and the tenets of human civilization.The US Administration cannot ultimately prevail against world opinion.Balzac Gandalf the White (1/17/03; 21:46:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 94835) Thanks Sir Malfleur ! Me only a dumb ol'e Engineer ! Malfleur (1/17/03; 20:17:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 94828)Gandalf the White"Tyro" means beginner, novice, amateur ...===Thank you ! That is my new word for the day !!Let us hope that many LURKERS leave the monitary level of "TYRO" and become knowledgible of what Physical Gold means for one's state of well-being by learning at the USAGOLD Forum.<;-) physicalman (1/17/03; 21:01:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 94834) Silver-all Had to answer some on this discussion. Have not posted lately, been fighting pneumonia. Finally feeling better, took off 2 weeks from work. Longest break i've had since 77. I am looking for a disc that i made that had total US silver coin production from 1857. I do not count production before then becuase a lot of silver coinage from 1792 to 1857 was worth more melted than spent and was either hoarded or shipped overseas and melted. From what i can recollect (will post the no.s sunday) US silver coin production was closer to 4 billion oz. from 1857 to present. As for how much is left out there i can only guess that it is 15 to 20%. I was buying and selling PM's in the seventies and in 79 i know personally that over 90% of the bullion, scrap, 90% and 40% coins that i bought i sold to refiners. Also know a lot of dealers across NA and guys that used to carry 100 to 300 $1000 bags of 90% in stock in the 80's now are lucky to be able to get an inventory buildup to a dozen bags. In 1976 to 1978 period i was able to buy more bags of silver in each of those years than i was in 1979, so all the workdown of stockpiles did not occur in just that 1 1/2 year period of 79-80. Gold volume for me was heavier in 79 than the silver coins were. I think someone said that coin production was 17 million oz. that sounds about right. US production is 7-11 million oz. with eagles and comm. coinage and the rest are probably Maple Leafs and all the contract minting done by the British Royal Mint for British Commenwealth nations. I personally think there is maybe 15% to 20% of US silver coinage left with about 75% bulk silver and 25% collectors coins. Just an educated guess from 35 years experience. Will post silver production no. sunday, earlier if i find it quicker. As always JMVHO DYODD Aristotle (1/17/03; 20:57:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 94833) Sir Dollar Bill -- do I agree with # 94748? Well, the first paragraph is corrupted beyond easy repair or discussion, so let's pass on that one for now, ok?The second paragraph is on target to the fine point that my faith has been restored enough to read onward to the third paragraph.Alas! Nearly right back where we started!!OK, so that's the breakdown on the post. Oddly, I didn't find the quote you mentioned. Is that from another post? Are you asking me if I agree with that quote? The answer is not as simple as yes or no, and on that point, I the premise has been oversimplified. I wouldn't be so hasty to say "the poor pay the full cost of inflation" because inflation is also paid for by monetary savings that are diminished in purchasing power. You'll probably agree with me that "the poor" generally don't have much to lose in that regard.Then again, "the rich" -- assuming they were smart enough to get rich in the first place rather than just falling backward into money -- are also probably smart enough to diversify their wealth into hard assets such as Gold, so they probably don't pay the price any more than "the poor" do.I guess that leaves the wretched middle class to ante up. The same numbskulls who got taken for the full ride on tech stocks and whatnot. I wonder how many of them are now taking advantage of their recent education in the school of hard knocks? Too few to do any good, likely.I could go on, but I think you catch my drift, and others here surely get weary of my long-winded input.Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle R Powell (1/17/03; 20:36:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 94832) Slowman // Malfleur Thanks for the info. If/when you can, please ask your broker friend for his thoughts on the current availability of silver and his opinion of investor demand. In that he deals with the real thing as opposed to paper, his insights would be most valuable. Also, most people are happy to talk about their work if someone is genuinely interested in listening. Malfleur, try looking at the price of your mining stock holdings as compared to the POG over a much longer time period. Maybe overlapping the two prices on a five year chart will disclose the relationship you are looking for. Keep the horizontal axis for time the same size in both charts then "adjust" the vertical axis until the price lines come together as much as possible. Now you can sell the story on a technical basis! Rich Mr. Bill (1/17/03; 20:33:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 94831) @R Powell msg#: 94829 - silver coins I bet that if you check all around that billion ounces of silver coin will not be found. I guess it has gone to silver heaven. Or is that China. Max Rabbitz (1/17/03; 20:27:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 94830) Malfleur There are lots of games that can be played with paper. Please read the article I posted below on naked shorts. Drooy has about 15% shares sold short! I wonder if they were all borrowed? R Powell (1/17/03; 20:19:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 94829) Silver coin melt From the 2002 Silver Survey which was published last Spring so the information is mostly for the calendar year 2001. "Of the 202.6 million ounces of secondary supply expected to enter the market this year, around 95% will likely come from old scrap. This includes the melting down of jewelry and silverware, as well as the recovery from a variety of other applications including photographic materials, spent catalysts and other sources. Another 3.0 million ounces are projected to come from coin melt. This projection is up slightly from 2.0 million ounces last year,...." (page 64) Me: Only 3 million projected this (2002) year and only 2 million last year (2001)! Compare this amount to the total amount of secondary of 202.6 million. Whatever the amounts were in the past, 2 or 3 million ounces just isn't much compared to the total supply for 2001 which is listed as 746.4 million ounces. Silver coin use in 2001 is listed as 17 million ounces. How reliable these numbers are is questionable but we've nothing better that I know of.? The Survey does give a chart of "Annual Secondary Supply" from 1978-2002 with 2002 being a projected estimate. It appears that just under 100 million ounces are indicated for the year 1980, 50 million for 1979 and declining amounts from 1981 to about 1990. From 1990 on the amounts seem fairly consistent at between 2 to 4 million ounces. I'm guessing from the scale of a small chart but it is evident that coin melt is not a significant supply at all and hasn't been for over a decade. As for past melt, I wonder too how many coins are now in collections. Mr Bill, thanks for running some numbers by us to back up the initial "poppycock" response. Interesting that so many coins were melted down in the 1979-1980 time when there still was a great supply of silver available. Whatever comes forward when next the price of silver reaches for the sky remains to be seen, but I doubt it will be anywhere near enough to lower the price when the realization hits that 5000 years of accumulation is somehow gone. Thoughts? Malfleur (1/17/03; 20:17:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 94828) Gandalf the White "Tyro" means beginner, novice, amateur ...May be the sellers of HMY and DROOY are tyros too. I sure hope so... Gandalf the White (1/17/03; 20:15:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 94827) ANOTHER of those "Beautiful Weeks", BB --- Look at these CHARTS ! http://stockcharts.com/gallery?$GOLD Especially the P & F one at the very bottom of the LINK !TO THE MOON, Alice !<;-) Gandalf the White (1/17/03; 20:10:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 94826) Question to Sir Malfleur ! Sorry, but I can not answer your QUESTION, about the SA miners, BUT, PLEASE tell me what "tyro" means ?Thanks<;-) Bulldog (1/17/03; 20:05:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 94825) $396.4 Settlement The most important event will be the devaluation of the U.S.$. Malfleur (1/17/03; 20:05:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 94824) Gold Mining Shares v. POG This forum has been most helpful in explaining the forces behind the movement in the POG to a tyro trying to understand this market.What is not yet clear to me is why my HMY and DROOY are moving in the opposite direction to the POG.Can anyone explain what's going on? Max Rabbitz (1/17/03; 19:50:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 94823) NAKED SHORTS! http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/030116/sfth046_1.html Seen running on Wall Street in broad daylight! Mothers cover the eyes of little children. SEC does not care. It would ruin the party.A snip from the last paragraph: Grant Atkins, a director of GeneMax Corp. and a representative of other public companies also commented, "The trading system in America allows abusive trading practices to over inflate share ownership in U.S. public companies. The 3-day securities clearing system operated by the NSCC and DTC fails to operate correctly to ensure that a fair marketplace exists to trade U.S. public securities. While the world is watching the U.S. struggle with issues relating to corporate misconduct, and President Bush has in recent months asked corporate America to 'Stop Cooking the Books,' the world has not yet discovered that the U.S. Trading system lacks integrity. The ramifications to Americans is that the U.S. people, through the federal reserve, have inherited the DTC and NSCC, and a system that can cook the books of public company issuers on American Exchanges. What happens when the world finds out that share ownership in American companies is over inflated?Max: Now you can't even be sure you own the paper. It's nice to have something physical.Thanks to Sir EastWyck at neighboring castle for heads up. Slowman (1/17/03; 19:23:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 94822) R Powell / coin melt / to all Talked to a company yesterday that buys silver/coins for manufacturing. Personally, I sold to them 13 years ago. they would pay full melt for any quantity available being of the 90%, 40%, sterling combinations. They also bought the lower grade foreign for same purposes. Back then they were using 100 bags of silver coins per month. They use to pay you with a company check while you waited in office after weight established. Now, today, He still buys but from brokers only of which one is my friend and in 50-100,000 dollar deals at a time with the privledge of paying in 60 days. But, now its mostly 1000 oz bars and 40% clad halves. My broker friend will have 25 - 100 bags of silver available most of the time but seems to place them privately. His normal buy price is melt - 100 and sell at melt + 150 I do know that this company use to report to some govt. branch how many bags of silver they melted every month, back then. My guess is today they probably use about 1 1/2 million ounces of silver per month. Whats freeky is look what happened when a big bullion broker got involved, greed set in and NOW they have to wait 60 days . ENJOY ALL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! steady (1/17/03; 19:04:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 94821) the gold bug by edgar allan poe http://www.dread.net/~finder/beatles/goldbug.html snipitAh, if I had only known you were here!" said Legrand, "but it's so long since I saw you; and how could I foresee that you would pay me a visit this very night of all others? As I was coming home I met Lieutenant G- , from the fort, and, very foolishly, I lent him the bug; so it will be impossible for you to see it until morning. Stay here tonight, and I will send Jup down for it at sunrise. It is the loveliest thing in creation!""What? - sunrise?""Nonsense! no! - the bug. It is of a brilliant gold color - about the size of a large hickorynut - with two jet black spots near one extremity of the back, and another, somewhat longer, at the other. The antennae are - " good reading! Mr. Bill (1/17/03; 19:03:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 94820) @R Powell msg#: 94817 and Glennh10 - silver coin scrap The following info is from this site.http://www.google.ca/search?q=cache:FSUCA7euP0kC:minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/silver/880498.pdf+silver+scrap+refining++historical+coins&hl=en&start=6World fabrication demand exceeded supply from mine production and the recycling of scrap by 3,260 t. Between 1990 and 1997, cumulative silver fabrication demand exceeded mine production by 68,400 t. The gap was filled by recycled silver scrap and draw-down of more than 31,100 t of silver bullion inventories (Silver Institute, 1999, p6). Total worldwide deficit for the years 1990 to 1997 = 68,400 tons.Filled from stock = 31,100 tons.Balance from scrap = 68,400 – 31,100 = 37,300Average scrap for 8 years = 4662.5 per year Global recycling of silver from old scrap materials increased by 13% to about 5,940 t. The United States was the largest silver recycler at about 1,730 t, followed by Japan at about 908 t. In the United States, photographic scrap was estimated to have generated 1,000 t of silver, most of which came from spent fixer solution and from X-ray and graphic arts wastes (Silver Institute, 1999, p. 32). This is for 1998. US refines approximately 30% of world scrap (5940/1730)Total refined per year in US 5940 * .3 = 1400 tonsSilver from photography is approximately 60% of all scrap (1730/1000)All other scrap = 40% (1400 * .4) = 560 tons per year560 * 32000 = 18,000,000 ounces per year for all scrapSince 1965 or 36 years 36 * 18,000,000 = 648,000,000 ounces.This is assuming the every bit of scrap other than silver from film was a coin. I don't think so. The total silver used in silver coin production was over 1.5 billion ounces. There has got to be a least a billion ounces of silver coin outstanding just in the US. Dollar Bill (1/17/03; 19:00:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 94819) Aristotle, do you agree with Clink! post # 94748 ? "...Anyway, things get more expensive, and the poor do not have incomes that keep pace with inflation. That is why we say that the poor pay the full cost of inflation" The Invisible Hand (1/17/03; 18:52:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 94818) Peter Fisher at the Fed, Paul De Grauwe at the ECB? From the Usagold newsfeed http://www.iht.com/articles/83753.html Mc donoughKey Greenspan ally to leave New York FedSNIPWilliam McDonough, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the second most important person in the Federal Reserve System, after the chairman, is to retire in July. …One of the names to surface immediately was that of Peter Fisher, a senior official in the Treasury Department who ran the New York Fed's open-market operations before joining the Bush administrationhttp://www.iht.com/articles/83741.html Belgium seeks ECB post for a bank criticSNIPWhen the ECB acted Dec. 5, de Grauwe said he would have voted for a reduction "long ago." ..."It would have been desirable to do that six months ago because it was quite obvious then that we were going into a significant slowdown," he said on the day of the reduction. He declined to comment on monetary policy when contacted Thursday. ...De Grauwe has spoken out against capping inflation at 2 percent, the mainstay of ECB policy. His ideas could influence the bank as it reviews its inflation target and reliance on money-supply data, analysts said===compare:Cytek (11/21/02; 20:01:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 90069)More Gold Russelling - INFLATE OR DIEsector (11/21/02; 21:42:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 90075)Peter Fischer and the Wolf... R Powell (1/17/03; 18:36:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 94817) Glennh10 Coin Melt Good question. I have never seen any numbers or even quesstimates of the quanity (percentage of total minted or weight) of coins lost to melt. The government simply stopped using silver in coins but never tried to recall silver coins as they did with paper "silver certificate" bills. I would guess that the answer to your question might best be filed under the category of both unknown and unknowable. Does anyone have any infomation? Considering that the purchasing power of the dollar was much greater in the 1970s and early 1980s when/and the price of silver spiked higher, might we assume that a great amount of coins were lost to melt? What remains of these silver coins may be those that were in the best condition and set aside for numismatic value. Both the amount of silver used yearly for coins and the amount of silver recovered from "scrap" or recycled sources is very small compared to the total demand and the supply trying to feed that demand. Cavan Man suggested (thanks) "Fooled by Randomness" for my books-to-read list and now you have added another, thanks! I think Cavan Man can easily guess which one I'll read first as I've always been fascinated by the continuing lack of price rationing in silver in spite of conditions that usually drive prices higher. Of all markets, silver may have the most unknowns and unknowables. Silver, imho, also trades in a fundamental vacuum. It will not surprise me to see the market in total disbelief when reports first appear of physical shortages. Some may not believe a shortage possible and resist this notion enough to short silver right into the teeth of a raging bull market! Could you give us a brief bookreport? Also, was the book hard to find, as in out of print? In return let me highly recommend "Silver Bulls" by Paul Sarnoff which is out of print but worth looking for. Sarnoff was a trader privy to exactly what happened in the 1979-1980 silver market. Another good out of print book for those interested in currencies is "When Money Dies" by Adam Ferguson, concerning the Weimar Republic currency meltdown. Being that this is Friday night in the northern hemisphere of the Americas, I feel privileged to shout... Happy Weekend !! Rich Dollar Bill (1/17/03; 18:30:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 94816) Sticking it to Poles "The American government has subsidized Poland buying 48 F-16 fighters from Lockheed. The terms are a low-interest loan for $3.8 billion and, and this is where we find out that selling fighter aircraft is the same as selling cars, the contract allows for interest-only, no-principal payments until 2011! So Poland gets 48 factory-fresh, still in the carton aircraft for a measly, what? $70 million a year? No wonder the European fighter manufacturers are testy!And am I supposed to think that in 2011, eight long years from now, the Poles are going to gladly pony up the $3.8 billion in principal for some old, used airplanes? Now, as I remember from my grade-school joke days, these are the guys who are supposed to have installed a screen door on a submarine, but in real life they are going to be buying airplanes at some multiple of what they are worth, bluebook-wise?" Mogumbo Guru misetich (1/17/03; 18:25:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 94815) **** $403.50 **** Disaccord between US hawks and the "rest of the world" on resolving the terrorist threat.Currently this disaccord has created anxiety - and fear - hence the rise in gold prices in US $The continuation of this disaccord (confrontation) - read - Germany, Saudi Arabia- Turkey - Russia - France- China - Iran - Venezuela - Brazil and Opec vs US and British hawks will create an atompshere of uncertainty in the marketplace - further nervousness and fear as each player uses whatever lever they have in their disposal to achieve their means.The gold lever has been pulled and the rocket launcher is ready - the fuse is littick..tick..tick The Invisible Hand (1/17/03; 18:13:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 94814) Dollar set to prolong its descent for months http://www.iht.com/articles/83740.html random snippets:The dollar is in a medium-term bear market and this could persist for some time," said Ian Stannard, currency strategist at BNP Paribas in London. "Though it isn't our central forecast for now, the risks of a more dramatic dollar collapse have certainly risen." …The euro's gains may not reflect the virtues of the single currency, or the Continental economy, as much as a general weakness in the dollar. While the dollar fell 15 percent against the euro last year, it also lost 10 percent against the yen. The struggling Japanese economy and other big Asian exporters will have a hard time absorbing further weakness in the dollar. …."I believe the European officials will let the euro rise until it really hurts," said Stephen Jen, chief currency economist at Morgan Stanley. Jen says Washington, too, might accept a slight further weakening in the dollar. U.S. manufacturers complained about the strength of the currency as the economy slowed since March 2000, saying it hurt their export competitiveness. And while President George W. Bush's choice to head the Treasury, John Snow, has said nothing so far about the "strong dollar" policy endorsed by his predecessors, many analysts maintain that he will acquiesce quietly as the currency slowly drifts lower. …===Who told us so? misetich (1/17/03; 17:55:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 94813) China The Fastest-Growing Oil Consumer In 2002, IEA Says http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030117/0708000204_2.html Snip:LONDON -(Dow Jones)- The International Energy Agency has upped its 2002 growth forecast for oil demand in China, saying it was likely the fastest-growing consumer of oil last year.In its monthly oil market report, the agency raised its average demand growth estimate for 2002 by 20,000 barrels a day, or 5.7%, to 280,000 b/d, .********MisetichOil demand is zooming in China - How high will oil prices rise in Euros/US $ in coming years?How will this affect gold prices in years to come?Got gold? Gandalf the White (1/17/03; 17:05:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 94812) TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!! COMEX POG Settlement Price Guessing CONTEST ! SECOND UPDATE as of 17:00 MST (Denver) 01/17/03!!THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) FEBRUARY 2003 Gold Contract (GC3G) on the date of Friday, the 31st of January, 2003. 3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !(Such as $345.6) 4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS" so as to be OFFICIAL !(Such as ****** $345.6 *******)5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Wednesday, January 29th, 2003.7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication,--- A small paragraph or two must accompany your guess, as to what YOU BELIEVE to be the NEXT important gold development(s) or event(s) and why.---THE PRIZES !! To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the February ‘03 (GC3G) SETTLEMENT price on Friday, January 31st, 2003 ----- The prize will be an ANTIQUE (OVER 100 years old) goldpiece !! Go to the Webpage below and you can see it !!http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html This Switzerland "Confederatio" 20 franc gold coin wasMinted between 1883 and 1896, has a gold Fineness of 0.900 and an actual Gold Content of 0.1867 troy ounce.(Fair Market Value in Uncirculated condition is about $150.)---BUT, it may be more by the end of this CONTEST, <;-)ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a Canadian Silver Maple Leaf containing one ounce of PURE SILVER !(Rich, Did you see that ?)===QUEST -- The FEB. 2003 COMEX Gold Contract (GC3G) SETTLEMENT Price on January 31, 2003: PREVIOUS Days GC3G Settlement prices were:1/16/02 Settle = $358.1 + $6.9 with a HIGH = $359.0 and a LOW = $350.01/17/03 Settle = $356.8 - $1.3 with a HIGH = $358.7 and a LOW = $355.3 and Sir ROCK is "King of the Hill" !!===A CALL TO CONTEST!!!COME ON IN ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD (or Silver) !!! Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines"LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!! READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! ( AND USAGOLD will not SELL your info either !)---LET the CONTEST CONTINUE !!<;-)===ENTRIES sorted in order of DECREASING Values !**** $750.0 **** Caradoc (1/17/03; 10:49:20MT - msg#: 94778**** $419.4 **** The Hoople (01/17/03; 13:10:11MT - msg#: 94798**** $400.0 **** Sundeck (1/17/03; 04:25:05MT - msg#: 94737**** $390.0 **** Galerider (01/16/03; 23:02:41MT - msg#: 94724)**** $387.5 **** knotakare (01/17/03; 13:17:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 94800)**** $385.5 **** Skydog (1/17/03; 05:12:59MT - msg#: 94738**** $383.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (01/17/03; 12:14:26MT - msg#: 94791**** $379.1 **** ha_tey_o (1/17/03; 07:24:56MT - msg#: 94741**** $378.9 **** erayboy (1/17/03; 03:05:04MT - msg#: 94729**** $378.8 **** miner49er (1/17/03; 14:46:29MT - msg#: 94805**** $378.1 **** a nation of one (01/16/03; 22:07:39MT - msg#: 94720**** $374.1 **** Slowman (1/17/03; 06:10:05MT - msg#: 94739**** $374.0 **** Zhisheng (1/17/03; 09:53:34MT - msg#: 94762**** $372.0 **** OZ (1/17/03; 02:14:25MT - msg#: 94727**** $370.5 **** VanRip (1/17/03; 07:59:23MT - msg#: 94747**** $369.2 **** slingshot (01/17/03; 12:42:13MT - msg#: 94796**** $368.4 **** J-Bullion (1/17/03; 08:16:08MT - msg#: 94750**** $367.4 **** Kagalaska (01/16/03; 22:29:48MT - msg#: 94721**** $364.2 **** Rock (1/17/03; 09:01:52MT - msg#: 94755**** $363.0 **** luckypierre (01/17/03; 12:34:00MT - msg#: 94795**** $348.0 **** Topaz (1/17/03; 03:06:48MT - msg#: 94730 **** $274.6 **** harryo (01/17/03; 12:19:57MT - msg#: 94792===INVALID ENTRIES ---NONE !!!!!!===Have a GREAT GOLDEN Weekend ALL !<;-) CoBra(too) (1/17/03; 16:58:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 94811) @ Miner49er Quite an intriguing essay - as it reminds me of the sage words of A/FOA some years back.... Finding a new compass by which to assess a fair market price for you and me ... and that's probably the crux of the matter as the only lasting compass to fair market value is and was forever - Gold!... And since the only real compass and barometer for fiat currencies historically was Gold only (Silver too) - and we know it has worked - we've been essentially rudderless floating through time and space. The unbelieveable gyrations of the main world currencies have been greater than 50% over a few years, since. A phenomenon we can again observe today. The introduction of Fiat based on trust only, was a new concept. The founding of the BIS, as the advent of the IMF and WB and the Bretton Woods Agreement - which already meant a persiflage to the US Constitutions meaning - and its SDR's as paper lending facilities of last resort - has in all reality destroyed the backing of any currency by more than vague promises.As we don't know where we might stand at a beginning inter-regnum of Fiat - probably competitive de-valuations - compass and rudder-less in a churning sea of ever more paper machinations - the only anchor in this turmoil will be Gold again. Not-withstanding the recent performance of the euro vs the US$ - another sign of the times.Probably Albert Einstein's Theory of Relativity holds a clue to our predicament? Though, in absolute terms only Gold held true - value! cb2PS: Pretty late for philosophy ... so take it as a venting... since 1971 we've had a Mr. Bill (1/17/03; 16:54:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 94810) @glennh10 msg#: 94808 – more poppycock Never happened. Aesop would be proud of this fable. In order for this to be true, all of the silver refined in the US since 1967, would have had to have been coins. And all of those little old ladies would still have their tea pots. Black Blade (1/17/03; 16:12:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 94809) Re: Waverider, Gandy, etc. - Trade Session I missed this one too. I had expected that once all the excitement over expiry had eased we could have seen the usual late day rally that follows. I never thought about the "lazy traders" as Randy points out. ;-) I probably should have considered the possibility but MLK day isn't exactly on my radar when I think of holidays. Oh well, live and learn. Anyway now that expiry is out of the way and as globally the kettle heats up we may see a lot of excitement in the PM markets next week.Cheers!- Black BladeOff to the gym! glennh10 (1/17/03; 15:46:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 94808) Re: Remaining 90% Silver Coin "The Big Silver Melt", a 1983 book by Henry A. Merton recounts the adventures of a man who was a "burner", one who accumulated and melted 90% silver coin (dimes quarters, halves) during the mid-late 1960's. At the back of the book, Merton provides estimates of quantites of coins that survived the melting, by date and mint mark. In many cases, as few as 25% of many date/mint mark varieties remained (whether this figure refers to circa 1968, when his melting operation ceased, or 1983, when the book was published, I don't know).I have since heard that perhaps as little as 10% of this coin remains today. Does anyone know any more about this?Thanks. Gandalf the White (1/17/03; 15:15:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 94807) Thanks T. C. ----- It just makes next week more exciting !! <;-) TownCrier (01/17/03; 12:54:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 94797)Gandalf, Waverider: Today's early flat line on gold priceSaw your inquiry. Comex closed early today (noon New York time) ahead of the Martin Luther King Holiday weekend.No intrigue, just lazy traders.R.===BUT did you see the PAPER fly in the SHORT Session !WOWSERS ! HIGH Volume<;-) Black Blade (1/17/03; 14:47:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 94806) Dollar Falls for 4th Day vs Euro Amid U.S. Economy Concerns http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APigzCRQdRG9sbGFy Snippit:New York, Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell for a fourth day against the euro as lower consumer confidence fueled concern the U.S. economy will expand more slowly than expected, and as a decline in stocks damped demand for the currency. Falling confidence may curb U.S. consumer spending, reining in the world's largest economy at a time when it needs $1.4 billion a day of international investment to offset the current- account deficit, the broadest measure of international trade. ``The U.S. has massive foreign capital needs, and that's not changing any time soon,'' said Marcel Kasumovich, head of currency strategy for the 10 largest industrialized nations at Merrill Lynch & Co., who recommends selling the currency against the euro, yen and Swiss franc. ``Dollar weakness is continuing.'' The U.S. currency fell to $1.0656 per euro at 11:43 a.m. New York time, from $1.0619 late yesterday, and is at its weakest since Oct. 26, 1999. Robert Sinche, chief currency strategist at Citibank wrote ``Financing the U.S. current account deficit could prove more difficult than previously anticipated, leaving a reduced probability of a sustainable dollar rally in the near term.'' He expects the dollar to weaken to $1.07 per euro in one month, and to $1.10 in three months. Black Blade: This is "interesting". miner49er (1/17/03; 14:46:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 94805) **** $378.8 **** One of the next important developments in the gold market will be when suppliers of the metal begin to recognize an advantage to holding inventory, instead of selling it on the basis of the current market price -- as currently reckoned by the dollar based contract market axis. In a macro sense this is simply saying supply will be insufficient to meet demand at price X, and doesn't seem very startling because of its generality. What should be observed is the practical out-working of this in a micro perspective.The past few years have seen a buyer's market in gold, as relatively low demand at the general public level had persuaded many holders of gold to dump their stale holdings in order to put their capital where the momentum was. Notwithstanding that just the opposite is occurring now, in that equities are now stale, and gold is again perceived as a momentum play, there is more to it than just saying that gold is in a seller's market. In fact, that would do an utter disservice to the overall dynamics.It is even more than simply recognizing a growing divergence between spot gold as quoted, and the price one actually pays for bullion, for instance. This type of comparison can indicate short supply, and a disconnect with the overall price discovery mechanism, but doesn't tell us anything about the state of the mechanism, itself. If this is our only clue, then we don't know that the contract pricing derivation of a spot price won't again converge, and that an anomalous trend is just that -- anomalous. Suppliers may still be convinced of the validity of the current means of price discovery, but are simply unable to fill demand for some period based on that price.This is also different than just saying demand is outpacing supply, as this too does not tell us about the quality of the current pricing mechanism, and that any long term upward shift in demand may be accommodated within the current framework in a matter of time. What is still significant in this scenario, is that there is still confidence in the current price discovery process.Drilling down to the micro level, and observing a shift on the part of suppliers to forego a sale today, in hope of a sale tomorrow for a better price, would be a critical change in market outlook. This would mean perceptions were changing as sellers were beginning to look elsewhere for clues for the appropriate price at which to sell their product. This will call into question the credibility of the contract marketplace. Since the largest segment of the contract arena is comprised of commercial players, whose elaborate hedging strategies vitally depend on a certain reliable capacity of market performance, any faltering here, and the game is over. The signs of this will NOT be just when suppliers begin increasing premiums over the daily quotes. Rather the signs will be when they grow unsure about the quotes altogether, and begin holding back supply until they find a new compass by which to assess a fair market price for you and me, the buyers. This tacit invalidation of the contract pricing mechanism will discredit the entire market causing contract prices to plummet (likely after some wrenching volatility), and the settled physical gold price to become temporarily untethered, with no one knowing just how to price it. Supply will dry up, and for a while the market will be very thin (large, inconsistent and fluctuating spreads, or no offer at all) until everyone gets their bearings again. Then when business does return to something like normal, expect the price to be very, very different...Gold - get you some, while there's still some left... miner Clink! (1/17/03; 14:20:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 94804) @otish mountain You are right - I stand corrected. sector (1/17/03; 14:11:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 94803) U.S., Turkey Discuss Iraq Strike Options By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS Filed at 2:07 p.m. ETANKARA, Turkey (AP) -- Facing stiff Turkish resistance, the United States may scale back its demand to base tens of thousands of soldiers in Turkey for a possible strike against Iraq, a Western diplomat said Friday.Washington had reportedly considered deploying up to 80,000 soldiers in Turkey for a potential northern strike that, along with a southern thrust from the Gulf, would leave Iraqi President Saddam Hussein surrounded.But Turkey's government has balked at the large deployment. Turkish leaders have repeatedly pointed to polls that show 80 percent of the country is against any Iraq war.A Western diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that U.S. and Turkish negotiators are now considering a smaller force. Turkish media have reported it would involve between 15,000 and 20,000 troops.U.S. Ambassador Robert Pearson met with Turkish legislators Friday.``We look forward to moving toward a mutually acceptable solution,'' Pearson said. ``I am confident that we will find an acceptable solution to these issues.''He gave no details.Accepting foreign troops is an extremely sensitive issue in Turkey. The country was divided and occupied by foreign countries after the fall of the Ottoman Empire. The presence of foreign soldiers on Turkish soil is an emotional issue.Turkey and Iraq also share the Islamic faith and Iraq was part of the Ottoman Empire before World War I.Turkey ``has deep historic relations with the people of Iraq, is a neighbor of Iraq and because of its regional position, there will be limits to the support Turkey can consider supplying to an operation,'' presidential spokesman Tacan Ildem said Friday.He spoke after a meeting on Iraq between President Ahmet Necdet Sezer, Prime Minister Abdullah Gul and the head of the Turkish army, Gen. Hilmi Ozkok.Last week, Turkey granted permission to 150 U.S. inspectors to examine Turkish bases for possible deployment, but that decision came more than a month after the request was made. The inspectors began work Monday.Gen. Richard Myers, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, was expected in Turkey for a Monday meeting on the bases with Ozkok.Washington was keen to begin the inspections quickly because many of the bases will have to be expanded or upgraded. The United States is expected to spend up to $200 million on base renovations.Turkey leaders also fear instability on their border if there is a conflict and international investors say economic losses could reach $4-$10 billion.Turkish leaders have repeatedly called for a peaceful solution to the Iraq standoff.``Peaceful means still have not been exhausted entirely and all sides concerned must give peace a chance,'' Ildem said.+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++Note the US words..."We look forward..." That is diplo-speak for "We ain't got nuttin now and maybe we can win the troupe lottery tomorrow".Without a northern base of troupe operations, there is no Kurdish contingent in a putative Iraq war. No Kurds, no US Kurdish puppets.See, the Turks have a veto over the Kurds because they have already moved two full heavy armor divisions into Iraq to preempt a Kurdish/US Spec Ops team and mainly to secure the Northern Iraq oil fields in Kirkuk and Mosul. Turkish envoys have already met with Saddam and the Saudis.A reasonable guess is that the Turks offered a 50/50 split of oil revenues to take defensive military positions in the Northern provinces of Iraq and cut the hated Kurds out of the picture. The Turks are now much closer to Baghdad than a US amphib task force from the South.This move has made the "oil 'vision' thing" far more visible in that the US will take Basra and the rich oil fields there but probably nothing else. So there the US will be in the South saying the US has no interest in Iraq's oil as they sit on the oil.Devastating Baghdad would be futile as it would mostly kill non-combatants as well as destroy a good part of the architecture. All this General McCaffery propaganda "We'll come in at night, hit them with 2,000 lb. bombs etc. is ridiculous. Precision-guided bombs in a house-to-house street fight involving at least 300,000 Iraqi soldiers and an unknown number of now heavily armed and undoubtedly motivated civilians?Recall that McCaffery was the guy that said there wasn't a single Y2K computer failure...not even one. He had the control center to prove it. Meanwhile, there were three dozen refinery fires in a two month period just before and after Y2K. Must have been the famed government tooth fairy again.Without a Northern front the US is hamstrung. We sure won't make it to Baghdad if the Turks move their two divsions in and then there's the Russians who just might land an airgroup or two to "Secure" certain oil assets. They were prominent in Afghanistan too.What a country. glennh10 (1/17/03; 14:11:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 94802) Re: Mint drops restrictions on American Eagles http://www.coinworld.com/news/012703/News-3.asp The requirement that dealers purchase (2) 2002 silver eagles for every (3) 2003 coins purchased was dropped.According to the Coin World article, the mint expressed that "this was in the best interest of the program and our customers."They apparently had around 1.5 million unsold 2002 coins. Another possible reason for rescinding (besides wanting to please their customers) might be due to a silver squeeze. They might rather want to hold on to that 1.5 million ounces.Who knows...just idle speculation. knotakare (01/17/03; 13:17:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 94800) *************387.5******** I'm headed out to Southwest Colorado tonight for a little fun on the slopes. This will give me something to look forward to when I get home; it would be great to win. Thanks to everyone of their insights this past 2 weeks. And thanks to our hosts for this great website. otish mountain (01/17/03; 13:12:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 94799) @Clink Post# 94748 Your post refers that Goldfields tried to buy a significant amount of physical a few months back.The miner which made news a few months ago on that subject was Gold Corp as far as I know. The Hoople (01/17/03; 13:10:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 94798) *** $419.4 *** Deciding a POG nearly 12 months forward is basically deciding to what degree between now and then TSHTF. Some days I can wake up and argue the POG hundreds of $ higher than my guess. No question at some point the end game of short sales, BB leasing, derivatives, and production shortfall will make gold a tsunami against the dollar shore.I remember in the equity bubble days the old saw about rising tides lifting all boats. Gold's tide will sink many paper fiat boats along the way. Ebb and flow, everything is ebb and flow. TownCrier (01/17/03; 12:54:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 94797) Gandalf, Waverider: Today's early flat line on gold price Saw your inquiry. Comex closed early today (noon New York time) ahead of the Martin Luther King Holiday weekend.No intrigue, just lazy traders.R. slingshot (01/17/03; 12:42:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 94796) ********* 369.2********* I still believe the event to shake the POG will be a Non-Event. Example. Hey John, did you see the stock market took a nose dive today? Yeah, it will bounce back. I'm in it for the long haul. Hey John, I see company A is laying people off. How is your job. Its fine Joe. I have a lot of seniority in the company. Hey John, think the war will be a long one in the ME. Naw, wrap in up in a couple of weeks.It is Johns Mindset that has to change. We can see the precursers to a failing global market as it is now. Threat of war and terrorism has not move the POG substantialy in major increments. Like a limit up day. So inkeeping with the Herd mentality,one day the herd will all of a sudden figure out by themselves that the saving of wealth as per'stocks to bonds to treasuries to real estate is not working. Just Gold. John wakes up to, I could of had a V-8 kind of thought. Will he have enough FIAT to save himself and will there be any to buy?I think I am weirding out.Slingshot-----------------------<> luckypierre (01/17/03; 12:34:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 94795) **** 363.00 **** Mostly consolidation with a slight upward movement, to explode in March when it becomes apparent the war is bogging down. Gandalf the White (01/17/03; 12:32:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 94794) Thanks for asking that QUESTION, Lady Waverider !!! Waverider (01/17/03; 11:21:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 94782)===But why is POG so flat - did trading stop before the close - is that possible?===YES, Lady Waverider, it appears that the normal COMEX GOLD pit close of 1:30 NY time, HAPPENED a little earlier today ! The Hobbits are confuzzed a little and hoping that someone can explain this occurance !<;-) Gandalf the White (01/17/03; 12:26:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 94793) Attention Sir Harryo !!! HELP !!! harryo (01/17/03; 12:19:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 94792)gold contest******274.6****** =====PLEASE REAFFIRM the number, Sir Harryo !Are my old eyes playing a trick on me ?Tks<;-) harryo (01/17/03; 12:19:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 94792) gold contest ******274.6****** One month ago I would not have dreamed of posting this high a price of gold. Things change. Sometimes for the better. The dollar index looks to fall below 100 very soon. The price of gold seems to rise as the dollar falls. The many years of negative balance of payments, the printing of more and more dollars with nothing to back them, the stock markets dropping from their vastly overinflated values to only inflated values, all these factors work to awaken investors to the value of gold. GoldnSilver2002 (01/17/03; 12:14:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 94791) **** $383.50 ********* At some point there will be a short covering rally in the PM stocks,as the master p.o.g drags their profits ever higher.For Gold there are simply too many large events that can happen.Consider the world today,japan("we are in an emergency crisis now"),Brazil(set to default on IMF),Argentina,middle east tensions,iraq,north korea,china(shanghai exchange cant fill demand at these prices),Canadian govt sold out of gold,uk half gold gone,portugal 70 percent sold out,venezuala(no more oil),down jones crashing,germany(record unemployment),lurking energy crisis,wall st scandals,record bankrupcies,crashing dollar,terrorism,war,record deficits,JPM bankers arrested.Now we just need the unexpected.Gold and silver stocks will go up,but at some point it would be wise to stock up on some physical.Gold will crack this month,the mounting pressure is too great and only the stupid,insane or criminal would sell gold now.***** 383.50 ******* TownCrier (01/17/03; 12:02:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 94790) Gandalf, here is the direct link to the price-guessing prize http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/SwissConf.html Try to win one... or buy a box of them outright.R. sector (01/17/03; 11:47:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 94788) @ a nation of one -- your views are refreshing... ...especially concerning the new "Rogue Nation" status... ...that George Bush has inaugurated for the US as it prepars to prey upon Iraq.It's ONE thing to arm-wave and saber-rattle and bully-rush at Iraq's borders. It's quite another to actually make a grab for the oil in the South while killing tens of thousands of culturally and racially different people.The nation can never go back, once that line has been crossed. Mr Gresham (01/17/03; 11:47:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 94787) Operative, Caradoc: Volleyball Operative: Choo-Choo Charlie could never have said it so well! "This train she's bound for glory" sang Woody Guthrie. (I'm not THAT old, but these last few years have seemed like a century in passing.)Caradoc: Great analogy. And now we're even seeing the hesitation in the PM stocks, whose potential buyers are thinking less about leverage on their investment, than about the DOUBLE manipulation (metals AND shorting of limited supplies of stocks) that can chew up their profits. And a few of them, if they've been reading the TRAIL here, wonder about eventual gov grabs of the mines. Looks like they're worried, from the price action anyway. (But that might just result in an appropriate discounted buy-in levels? With you making your bets purely on the politics going forward...)The futures and options must be following the actual POG now, but I haven't looked at or heard any comment about the outlying dates discounting the vulnerability of paper gold holdings.All-in-all, it is the market at its largest level calculating the risk/reward plays on gold in all its varieties, and I think more people are shifting TOWARD that view of a hyperbolic arc upward (your Volleyball image) than toward its retracing to 320.I think more and more are doing that R/R on physical and coming up with double digit positive ratios, rather than the 1:1 of bonds or the negatives of Dow stocks. USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (01/17/03; 11:37:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 94785) Real gold, real easy. Delivered to your door. http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html
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