USAGOLD Gold Discussion Forum Archive

USAGOLD Menu BAR

Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...

(Discussion Forum Hall of Fame)

(The Gold Trail)

("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)

The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

FORUM ARCHIVES

Select date of the archive you wish to view

Month Day Year
Archives date back to September 22, 1998

WELCOME TO THE ARCHIVES!

(View Today's Discussion) (View Previous Day's Discussion) (View Next Day's Discussion)

ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 9/17/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Zhisheng (09/17/02; 23:49:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 85396)
Question for Sierra Madre (85359)
Your quote sounds quite interesting. Would you indicate in which part of MORALS AND DOGMA it occurs? I would like to read the context. Thank you.

Waverider (09/17/02; 23:43:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 85395)
Siege Engine
Gold above $300.00
Ladies Waverider, Leigh and Siochaina had practiced the Dance of the Veils for two months. Their movements were synchronous and melodious, but most important was the fluidity with which Leigh and Siochaina must prepare and administer the wine and hemlock mixture. The veils were sewn of red and Gold sheer silk and had a Gold fringe. The costumes were red and decorated with solid Gold (non-magnetic) jewellery - arm and ankle bracelets, earings, necklaces, and most importantly the Gold chain and coin hip belts. They alone weighed almost 8 pounds each and would ground the women in the dance, their purpose, and would jingle in time to the music. The day to perform finally arrived. They focused their concentration on the task in front of them, determined to complete their objective. The stage cleared, the drums began, and they entered into a trance, completely immersed in the beat of the music. The dance began...each was covered by a veil...but the undulations were visible through the sheer silk. When the unveiling commenced, the veils became a part of the dance, swishing and swirling in patterns as beautiful and regular as waves on the ocean. Then Lady Waverider began to sing, knowing exactly the timing that would trigger an advance to the gates, as practiced many times with Sirs Slingshot, Black Blade and all of the Council. As the ladies shimmied and twirled, Lady Waverider looked over and happened to see Sir Darkhorse. His face was white as death and he was transfixed in a stare. She focused her attention to the object of his fixation, and what she saw made her blood run cold! The King with No Name! How dare he hide behind a mask of Gold. Lady Waverider signalled to Lady's Siochaina and Leigh with the predetermined signal - a change in the rhythm of the dance, slightly out of beat to the music, but far too subtle for anyone other than they to have noticed. Siochaina and Leigh shimmied past the soldiers closest to them, accepting the offering of their goblets. They drank a small amount of red wine and then quietly and discreetly emptied the tincture of hemlock into the remaining wine in the goblets. They moved towards the guards at the gate, dancing within inches of them. Then, in unison, they shimmied forward, and against all rules of middle eastern dance made momentary contact with the guards, offering the wine goblets to their lips as the music reached a crescendo. The ladies were revulsed by the brief contact but knew their mission had been accomplished - the guards drank deeply, and the ladies left the goblets in their hands while they glided back to the protection of their fellow Goldbugs and the main stage. Their work was complete. Meanwhile, Lady Waverider had fixed her attention on the King with No Name. She focused her eyes on his, captivating him through the mask and transfixing him into the trance of the Dance of the Veils. All of her energies were spent accomplishing this task...and she drew on Sir Gandalf's supernatural powers to focus the Kings attention...she knew this was absolutely critical in order for the military plan to be operationalized with success....

Sierra Madre (09/17/02; 23:39:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 85394)
"Plan for the New American Century" - PNAC
www.rense.com
All should take a look at the blueprint uncovered by the Sunday Herald in Scotland. Entitlted, "Rebuilding America's Defenses", it was subtitled "Plan for the New American Century" and produced for Bush by a neo-conservative think tank in Sep. 2000.

I find quite interesting the proposed use of "democratisation" (as they call it) as an aggressive instrument - a war strategy - to produce "regime change", in other words: destabilize an opponent and overthrow him. A kind of Orwellian Doublespeak. Thus "democratisation" has nothing really to do with democracy and what some would think, an improvement in conditions: it means overthrowing the enemy by sowing the seeds of instability - which is inherent in Democracy, a system where nothing is stable but dependent on the whim of the masses, which can be moved so easily via emotion projected through the media, press, and all Establishment institutions working as one, as we are seeing in the U.S. itself.

Here is the relevant paragraph:

"spotlights China for 'regime change' saying 'it is time to increase the presence of American forces in southeast Asia'. This, it says, may lead to 'American and allied power providing the spur to the process of democratisation in China';"

Also on Rense.com a report that says Netanyahu suggested the U.S. begin to transmit via satellite, porno T.V. in order to undermine the Iranian government. I hesistate to mention an unmentionable work - whose authenticity is strenuously denied - which attributes just this type of operations to Netanyahu's tribe; however Netanyahu is behaving according to the script, with such an unconscionable suggestion.
******
A NATION OF ONE: Thanks for your words on the Tao Te Ching, most interesting. We revert to metaphysics so infrequently, and yet, the anguish in our world is a reflection of what is occurring at a metaphysical level - beyond the ken of science and disparaged by it.

Sector: Most seem to feel that JPM is at the end of its days; and yet, the Japanese banks are virtually zombies, "the living dead" and fail to roll over and die. Might not JPM become another zombie and remain with us for quite some time? What does it take to kill a zombie - already dead?

Thanks to all for a valuable evening of thought.

Sierra

Black Blade (09/17/02; 23:01:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 85393)
OPEC May Leave Output Unchanged After Iraq Promise
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Energy%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_energy&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_all&bt=ad_position1_energy&tag=energy&middle=ad_frame2_energy&s=APYc5FRShT1BFQyBN

Snippit:

Osaka, Japan, Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC may leave its oil- production quotas unchanged at a meeting this week after Iraq decided to allow the unconditional return of United Nations weapons inspectors, traders and analysts said. Oil prices fell 4.1 percent in New York on expectations that Iraq's decision makes a U.S. attack less likely. Oil still is up 40 percent this year, partly on concern that a war would disrupt Middle East supplies. OPEC on Thursday will meet in Osaka, Japan, to consider its first increase in output quotas in two years. ``A weakness in oil prices in the next few days will take the pressure off OPEC to lift production,'' said Stuart Smith, an energy analyst at Merrill Lynch & Co. in Sydney.

Black Blade: That's exactly what I had considered as I posted last night. OPEC has no incentive to increase production now as petroleum prices pulled back indicating a market perception of sufficient supply (are the market players in for a surprise).

BTW, just heard on CNBC that the Federal Government is considering changing rules for "Hedge Funds" because they are probably used as money laundering schemes for terrorists. Hmmm...

DOWNUNDER (09/17/02; 22:58:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 85392)
WHO RUNS THE FED --AND WHAT IS MANIPULATION?
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/hemingway_table.cfm?cfid=362040&cftoken=26440042&pid=2492
WHO RUNS THE FED --AND WHAT IS MANIPULATION? -- This is the title of a new article published @Le Metropole Cafe -
(a site that ALL gold bugs should patronise) which is well researched and written --

Its particularily of interest as today Slingshot continued his facinating "Seige Engine" story (msg 85362)---AND for the first time names the KING OF THE CASTLE -- the IMF!
Guess who uses the IMF as a tool !

SNIP - -
For example, then President John F. Kennedy announced in early November 1963 that he saw no reason for the Federal Reserve to exist and he had every intention of closing it down.[1] Unfortunately he died two weeks later and one of President Johnson's very first acts was to announce a reversal of that decision. What a different country we'd have today if that wouldn't have happened
Footnote--(By Author)
It's my own personal opinion that the Kennedy assassination had nothing to do with Castro, the mafia, or Viet Nam; rather he was assassinated because of his decision to close the Fed.

Black Blade (09/17/02; 22:54:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 85391)
JUDGE: JPM HAS NO ENRONITIS CLAIM
http://www.nypost.com/business/57184.htm

Snippit:

A federal judge has dismissed J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s claim against 11 insurers for nearly $1 billion to cover losses on trades with bankrupt energy trader Enron Corp. The fraud suit was dismissed late Friday by U.S. District Judge Jed Rakoff of the Federal District Court for the Southern District of New York. J.P. Morgan has said the insurers should pay because they guaranteed with "surety bonds" a series of failed energy trades between Enron and Mahonia, an offshore, special purpose entity controlled by J.P. Morgan.

Black Blade: Is this "low budget" or what? JP Morgan Chase is on the hoof for their complicity in a fraud and they want insurers to pay. The judge saw right through this crooked attempt to defraud the insurance companies.

Galerider (09/17/02; 22:52:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 85390)
GOLD MOVES
BLACK BLADE; GOLD MOVES HIGHER
Yes, and it should get very interesting. Thought the Japanese stock market would move higher (manipulation?) in order to help the banks look better at the end of the month (reporting time). I'm hoping that the POG will stay on a leash for a little longer. Trying to get more fiat money to buy some more.

Brett Woods (09/17/02; 22:10:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 85389)
Thanks Sector,
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2002/09/020916064654.htm
thought for a while something catastrophic might have happened. And @ Belgian: Okay, I am following your breakdown now: U.S. Reserves approx. 1/100 debt.

Also, I came across this statement today from the above link:

"People, understandably, are keenly interested in why South Africa has been so blessed with gold. The Witwatersrand gold fields have yielded a half-trillion dollars' worth of gold since 1886. Estimates are that there's another half-trillion dollars in gold still to be mined, and that's a lot of money,"

Black Blade (09/17/02; 22:10:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 85388)
Gold Moves Higher Again

Has anyone noticed that the price of Gold has been surging higher tonight? The Asian markets are in retreat and the war is still on. Also, the USD is pulling back on weaker US markets. Hang on for the ride. Also, the gold derivative position may be in a bit of trouble if JP Morgan Chase is distracted with huge losses in their "book". Looks like it could get "entertaining" tonight.

- Black Blade

Black Blade (09/17/02; 22:06:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 85387)
Political and Economic Worries Support Gold Investment in the U.S. -- Jewelry Sales hold steady despite slowing demand for luxury goods generally
http://library.northernlight.com/FA20020917430000034.html?cb=229&dx=1006&sc=0#doc

Snippit:

NEW YORK, Sep 17, 2002 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- A report published by the World Gold Council today said that gold off take in the U.S. rose 2.8% to 70.2 tonnes year-on-year in the second quarter with a 41% surge in investment demand to 4.1 tonnes - up from 2.9 tonnes.

Black Blade: Though gold sales are a bit off in India due to drought, sales increased elsewhere. Vietnamese and Indonesian sales are substantially higher, and higher in all eastern Asian countries in general. Sales in Asia including India are still likely to increase as the festival and fall wedding seasons progress. Western holiday sales are expected to be robust even during the economic recession with an increase in investment demand.

misetich (09/17/02; 22:05:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 85386)
J.P. Morgan Lowers Profit Forecast on Loan Losses
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APYfCoBROSi5QLiBN
Snip:

New York, Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., the second-biggest U.S. bank, reduced its forecast for third-quarter profit because of a surge in loan defaults by telecommunications and cable companies and a plunge in trading revenue.

Chief Executive Officer William Harrison said on a conference call with investors he may fire employees to cut costs. The bank said profit from operations will be ``well below'' the 58 cents per share earned in the second quarter. Shares fell 8 percent after the close of New York Stock Exchange trading.

J.P. Morgan's warning follows a drop in net income in six of the seven quarters since the bank was created in 2000 through the $32 billion merger of Chase Manhattan Corp. and J.P. Morgan & Co. The world's biggest arranger of syndicated loans has been hit by Enron Corp.'s collapse, Argentina's debt default and loan losses from the failure of cable and telecom companies such as Global Crossing Ltd.

``They've got a serious problem with loans,'' said Jon Burnham, chairman of Burnham Asset Management Corp., which oversees $1.3 billion in assets. Burnham said the $135 million fund he manages sold its last J.P. Morgan shares about two years ago. ``They lent much more to a lot of these companies than most other banks did.''

Shares Fall

The bank's shares fell to $19.80 in trading at 6:30 p.m. from its New York Stock Exchange close of $21.55. The stock has lost 40.7 percent this year, the worst performer in the Philadelphia KBW index of U.S. banks. J.P. Morgan's 6 5/8 percent notes maturing 2012 dropped, pushing up the yield to 5.72 percent from 5.52 percent.

Standard & Poor's cut J.P. Morgan's credit rating one level to A+, citing a deterioration of the bank's credit quality.

Loan losses will total about $1.4 billion in the three months ending Sept. 30, an increase from $302 million in the previous quarter, the bank said.

``We didn't fully appreciate the level of deterioration that would occur beginning the last couple of months,'' Harrison said. ``It developed into worse than we thought.''

J.P. Morgan led other banks in arranging loans in 2000 and 2001 to telecommunications companies that borrowed a total of $1 trillion, according to Bloomberg data. The bank arranged $86.7 billion in 2000 for a 13.8 percent market share and $62.9 billion in 2001 for a 16.4 percent share in a total of 187 loans. By comparison, Citigroup Inc. arranged $78.6 billion of telecom loans in 2000 and $55.8 billion worth in 2001.

Trading Revenue

J.P. Morgan's trading revenue in July and August was about $100 million, compared with $1.1 billion for all of the second quarter. The company cited ``less favorable results from trading positions in a challenging market environment'' for the decline.

``We lost money on positions taken across our dealer books,'' Chief Financial Officer Dina Dublon said on a conference call with investors. ``We also had a loss in our proprietary trading desk.''

J.P. Morgan's problems have compounded this year after Enron's collapse spawned investigations by Congress and regulators into the bank's business with the bankrupt energy trader. J.P Morgan, its larger rival Citigroup Inc. and other banks face lawsuits seeking more than $30 billion in claims related to the failure of Enron and WorldCom Inc.

Last week, a judge rejected J.P. Morgan's claims of fraud against 11 insurers as part of an effort to collect $965 million for losses on gas and oil trades with Enron.

Eye on the Ball

``You just wonder with the merger whether top management's eye was taken off the ball at the exact time when these problems started to brew,'' said Michael Santelli, who helps manage the $700 million Armada Large Cap Value Fund, about 1.75 percent of which is J.P. Morgan shares.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call had forecast the New York-based bank would post earnings per share of 54 cents in the third quarter.

Harrison said the bank, which has fired 10,000 employees, mostly investment bankers and money managers, since September 2000 doesn't plan a ``massive'' cut in jobs.

``It's going to be thoughtful,'' he said.

Harrison, who earned $21.9 million last year, has seen his stake in J.P. Morgan, excluding the value of 2.4 million options, fall $18 million this year.

*********
Misetich

How sweet it is !

Got gold?

Posted in its entirity for educational and fair use only -

Black Blade (09/17/02; 21:57:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 85385)
Allied warplanes expand counterattacks
http://www.washtimes.com/national/20020917-29771086.htm

Snippit:

The Pentagon has ordered expanded retaliatory attacks on air-defense targets in Iraq in response to threats to patrolling U.S. and British warplanes, senior officials said yesterday. Bombing raids against Iraqi air-defense sites and related targets have increased in intensity in recent weeks and appear to be preparation for military action against Saddam Hussein.

Black Blade: Nothing is changed. The attacks continue in preparation for war.

Black Blade (09/17/02; 21:52:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 85384)
U.N. Weapons Inspectors, Iraqis to Meet in Vienna Week of Sept. 30
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,63302,00.html

Snippit:

The United States and Russia clashed on Tuesday over whether to take Baghdad at its word or impose a new ultimatum. "We have seen this game before," said a skeptical Colin Powell. The secretary of state reaffirmed Washington's call for a tough anti-Iraq resolution by the U.N. Security Council, despite Iraq's sudden about-face on inspections. "We cannot just take a one-and-a-quarter-page letter as the end of this matter," Powell told reporters. "We have seen this game before" -- a reference to Iraqi delays and obstructions of past inspections. Speaking for the European Union, the Danish foreign minister, Per Stig Moeller, said the council should take up the question of whether Iraq's letter meets its demands. And meantime, he added on a skeptical note, "I would sleep with my eyes wide open and with my boots on."

The Pentagon disclosed it had ordered pilots, as they patrol Iraqi skies, to attack command and communications links in Iraq's anti-aircraft system. It also said it might base B-2 stealth bombers on Britain's Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia; that would halve their normal flight time from U.S. bases to Iraq. And the U.S. Navy said it was trying to contract a commercial ship to move military equipment to the Persian Gulf.

Black Blade: Meanwhile Saddam is using the old "Rope a Dope" against the UN. He obviously is stalling for time as he feverishly strengthens defenses and hides small nearly undetectable parts for constructing Weapons of Mass Destruction. I still think that war is inevitable as there is no basis to take the Iraqis at their word. It is a "go" regardless of what the UN decides.

Black Blade (09/17/02; 21:39:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 85383)
Why Are Housing Prices Too High?
http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/housing/2002-09-16-overpriced-markets_x.htm

Snippit:

As speculation grows over a housing price bubble in the hot U.S. real estate market, those cities are among the most worrisome for three leading real estate analysts who predict which real estate markets risk stalling or crashing. Cities with overpriced housing markets might have any of several factors at play: high land costs, a sluggish job market, rising mortgage payments or incomes that aren't keeping pace with home prices. Every analyst has a different recipe. Tacoma tops the list of Michael Sklarz at Fidelity National Information Solutions. His latest analysis identifies it as the nation's most overpriced housing market: Prices are 23% over what Sklarz calls the intrinsic value for homes there, vs. 7.2% overpricing for homes nationwide. Sklarz says a correction is inevitable in markets like Tacoma because prices have gotten out of line with what local economies can sustain. The correction may be a prolonged pause in price increases or a decline, Sklarz says.

Black Blade: Just another bubble. Yep, the lemmings are running from bubble to another. Many will get burned just like in Japan. The US is following the exact same pattern. It's just plain weird but that's what's happening. Speculative stock markets crash, then a lag of several months and then the real estate markets crashes, then the banking system collapses. We have seen this before in 1929 and in 1973-1974. The real estate bubbles popped then after the markets crashed. It should get quite "Interesting" before this all draws to its logical conclusion.

Black Blade (09/17/02; 21:38:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 85382)
More banks in state reporting bad loans
http://www.jsonline.com/bym/news/sep02/80473.asp

As economy fades, so does business repayment

Snippit:

As the economy languishes, more businesses are falling behind in repaying their loans to Wisconsin banks, new statistics from federal regulators indicate. Some Wisconsin banks saw triple-digit increases in the dollar amount of loan or lease payments that were at least 90 days overdue in the second quarter, compared with the same period in 2001, according to just-released figures from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

Black Blade: Wisconsin banks are not alone. This story can be retold in most states. We just saw JP Morgan Chase announce "problems" with loans today and they are not alone. Citigroup, Finova, Fleet Financial, First Union, Bank of America, Wachovia Bank and Wells Fargo are just a few with similar problems (some much worse). Don't be surprised if you soon hear of a major US bank collapse. Not long ago we saw smaller Superior Bank go tits up.

Black Blade (09/17/02; 21:36:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 85381)
Market Wrap Up -- Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Snippit:

Bad News Everywhere

US industrial production fell for the first time this year in August, capacity utilization fell to 76.2% last month, Charles Schwab will cut 10% of its workforce after average trades drop by 25%, McDonalds lowers its profit forecast, Kroger cuts its annual earnings forecast, Oracle seeks to stop sales crunch as earnings fall, and J.P. Morgan lowers its third quarter earnings losses due to growing loan losses. These are just a few of today's headlines that confirm the bear market forces are back in charge as headlines on earnings and the economy take on their bear market characteristics. It is safe to say at this point that any hopes of a second half recovery are dead. For the third year in a row analysts and economists have been wrong in forecasting a second half turn around. It has been the hope that has kept investors holding on to their stocks. What kind of new spin will come next to keep investors corralled in stocks? Will it be another huge rate cut? That is unlikely with the dollar on shaky ground and no cooperation on rate reductions coming from the ECB. Would it be a quick victory in Iraq? That is a possibility, but this war will be much more complicated.

Black Blade: Second Half Recovery is dead indeed. It never had a chance at life. The Wall Street pied pipers like Abby Jo Cohen, Joe Battipaglia, Diane Swonk and others were liars as I had pointed out. They were of course "talking their book". The stench goes down deep on Wall Street as we know. We have seen the pimps like Henry Blodgett, Mary Meeker, and Jack Grubman deceive the unsuspecting lemmings with absurd lies while taking bribes from the banking and investment side of the business. Does anyone now wonder why there was a Glass-Steagall Act to begin with? Corporate malfeasance is still a problem. The dozens of cockroaches trotted out for "perp walks" are only the tip of the iceberg. And as with cockroaches, when you see one there are sure to be many more. Hopefully they will be trotted off to the Roach Hotel, but don't count on it. Usually they get a slap on the wrist or spend a little time at Club Fed. No, the Second Half Recovery did not have a prayer. The corporate earnings simply are not there and the rising debt defaults and bad loans are just starting to come to light. JP Morgan Chase's problems are just the tip of the iceberg.

Actually I am toying with the idea of a short series on the Banking Crisis in America. We talk about Japan's banking problems, but those in the US are almost as bad. I'll consider this idea some more.

Black Blade (09/17/02; 21:32:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 85380)
Complete Reversal In Asia
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

It appears that Asia is giving up most of yesterday's gains on the knee-jerk reaction to the Iraqi announcement. The Nikkei and Taiwan market indices are collapsing. Note that after hours earnings warnings in the US cannot have helped much. There has been a mass exodus of foreign investment from US shores. Euro and Asian cash is going home and it is suspected that Arab cash is leaving as well. Tens of $billions are being redeemed from US mutual funds and insiders are bailing out as well. This is not a very strong vote of confidence by those corporate big wigs who ask that the US public be "patriotic" and buy these pigs. Hell, they even want out. Corporate and consumer debt is rising to all time record levels and capital expenditures have yet to materialize. Bankruptcies are also on the rise to new record levels as well. Look for several big name bankruptcy filings in the coming months. Obviously foreign funds are going to continue to flee US investments.

- Black Blade

a nation of one (09/17/02; 21:23:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 85379)
to sector
Thanks. I understood some of that. It looks serious, but it's not like $30Trillion will go down the hole.

sector (09/17/02; 21:13:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 85378)
Too Big to Fail
LTCM was bad enough...but they wern't conected to everyone else as JPM's derivatives are
JPM's derivatives, all of them, carry about $50 Billion in Value-at-risk. Not so much that a few box cars of paper couldn't do the bailout.

The real problem is all the counter parties and their Values-at-risk. JPM accumulated their own derivatives using a ten-fold acquisition advantage available to no one else. In other words, JPM got a 90% discount on its side of the trade while the "Dumb guys" on the other side paid retail. The "Dumb Guys" are the TIAAFREFFs, the CALPERS and the other big retirement funds. The total Values at risk therefore are closer to $600 Billion for JPM AND its counter parties.

It's those guys who are headed to the cleaners if they are currently underwater in their derivatives. With interest rates, if they bet long they are under water. IF JPM fails their derivatives will automatically fail as it is reliably rumored that $20/share close price will trigger their callable derivatives.

Such a failure would simply crush what little there is left of Main Street's Wall Street confidence. The Fed and the FDIC would be exposed to a nightmare scenario.

kasperjack (09/17/02; 21:13:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 85377)
Silver Swindle Story Has Legs
http://www.mips1.net/mggold.nsf/Current/F5D5BCE6A4C3282585256C3700809369?OpenDocument
Mining web is getting tremendous feedback on the magnetic silver sterling story. This guy gives a lead for the activists. Scroll down to the bottom to see the list of responses to the article.

Gandalf the White (09/17/02; 21:13:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 85376)
Don't WORRY, Sir Slingshot !!
The Gate Guards drank the poisoned wine and NOT the Two Ladies ! YES ?
<;-)

kasperjack (09/17/02; 20:55:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 85375)
Rense Posts Mining Webs Silver Story
www.rense.com
The word is getting out there G Khan et al...

a nation of one (09/17/02; 20:45:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 85374)
people around here
don't want to talk about it. A realtor friend of mine said he thinks the U.S. economy is too well-regulated to fail. I don't agree with him, but he's not alone in his opinion, judging by appearances. A realtor neighbor in the next block has remained silent to several comments I made trying to open with him the subject of the depressed real estate market. The newspapers say very little of substance on the general outlook, some but not much. The TV news doesn't actually cover the news, just the current objectives of the politicos. Nobody says anything around here. It's all just darkness and frowning and shaking of heads. A friend who lives two hundred miles from here told me, "We're likely to see some bad stuff." He was referring to the war. End of conversation. Another friend in Washington won't talk about these matters with me over the phone. He is visiting here next week and said he will fill me in. Some one I met in a newsgroup, and with whom I exchange emails often, doesn't know much about economics but has changed the tone of his emails so they are silent about politically controversial subjects. Formerly that was his strong point.

silvercollector (09/17/02; 20:34:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 85373)
sector
Loaded to the 'gills' with PM's and oils that is to say.

The other loaded will be when gold cracks 330!

MK (09/17/02; 20:33:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 85372)
When it rains, it pours
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020914/economy_argentina_1.html
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Argentina could be plunged into "chaos" if the Supreme Court upholds a lower court ruling that January's conversion of dollar deposits into devalued pesos was unconstitutional, President Eduardo Duhalde said on Saturday. The government plans to appeal Friday's ruling in a case brought by Argentina's ombudsman that applies to all depositors which could, if upheld, scuttle banks teetering on collapse amid the worst recession in the nation's history. . .

Bankers have said they do not have enough U.S. dollars on hand to pay depositors in case the Supreme Court upholds the rulings and there likely are not enough pesos available to reimburse those savings at current exchange rates.

MK Note: The very definition of complete collapse. Just think if you were an Argentinian. Now think if you were an Argentinian who had had the wisdom to maintain a 15% to 30% diversification in gold as a matter of course.

silvercollector (09/17/02; 20:32:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 85371)
sector
I for one appreciate your upbeat posts.

I am more nervous now than in the last 3 or 4 years, the last 24 hours have been nerve-racking. I am loaded to the 'gills'.

This 'inspection' on/off business probably to continue for weeks will be hard to handle. Any words of wisdom, wish we could fast forward a year.

Man-O-man does Bush have the push on or what!

(Fingernails chewed off to the elbow)

silvercollector

a nation of one (09/17/02; 20:29:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 85370)
JPM

I have been reading USAGoldforum since about April or so and have been following the news on JPM. It is just so hard to believe that a big bank like JPM could actually fail. I know that it probably could. But it is still hard to actually believe, if you know what I mean. It makes sense to me -who have no personal experience in the business- that it would be bailed out. But the amounts needed also seem too big to be real. When things like this happen, haven't the actual disasters usually turned out to be not quite so bad as everyone predicted? Or could everything really crash and burn like they say?

sector (09/17/02; 20:17:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 85369)
@a nation of one There is a war now...
...with SpecOps already on the ground in Western and Northern Iraq
...and daily bombing of increasing scope.

The real heavy metal, armored cav comes later after some concentrated heavy bombing. It will be a slow-motion disaster for everybody.

What will happen to pog? It will stay in a sub-$330 range until the Fed and Treasury decide they have sold or swapped enough of the BIS's and our bullion or until JPM fails and its COMEX gold short contracts are liquidated with fiat. The JPM failure means a colossal financial meltdown and FED bailout via massive inflation as well as the termination of COMEX gold and silver trading.

That events could happen this month or next year. When JPM fails pog will shortly thereafter rocket to $400 in a day on overseas trading then to much higher levels.

The government lie is unravelling must faster than they planned.

Cometose (09/17/02; 20:10:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 85368)
FORD
Today , I got a call from John S at Morgan Stanley . He and I spoke in July about a Keogh plan for my business. I have been avoiding him since....but he called today to follow through. Sales must be slow.....He asked a lot of personal questions between chaws of gum to determine if there was a workable pool of money here worth his effort...The salesmen make me sick.
I met another salsemen from MS a year ago through a friend of mine . He never paid much attention to what I said and his client ( my friend who had lost 1/2 is now in worse shape) So John recommended to me a Ford Bond ....that is paying a 6.3% dividend... I said to him that I heard that they were going bankrupt....He ignored my comment and went on ....

Yes Mr Weiss indicated on his last report that GM was in dire straits to their pensioners. He said that their oustanding pension obligations are worth half the company to the pensioners. 12 Billion . Now he didn't quantify his other statement regarding Ford......but in the context he made it sound like Ford is in worse shape than GM.

ANYONE want to buy some Ford BONDS?????

a nation of one (09/17/02; 19:49:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 85367)
question

Sector, if there is a war, how will it affect pog, and why?

sector (09/17/02; 19:31:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 85366)
@BrettWoods Microsoft After Hours at $46.70 - JPM Tomorrow
http://toplist.island.com/toplist/top20.jsp?AH=on&frc=off&SORT=0

8 MSFT NM 97,076 46.7000 19:37:26.6 0 -0.5900 -1.25%

Looks like they are just sitting there.

++++++++++++++++++++

The really important stock tomorrow is JPM. With their fresh new downgrades they will be receiving a "Margin call" from their own risk management committee. They will have to divest positions to lower risk. That means they will take even more losses than they spoke about on their conference call.

Since the financial World is so derivative dependent JPM's fate [As the Derivative King] is everyone's fate [Except, of course, those who have assets independent of any financial system]. The cabal will want to hammer gold tomorrow so one needs to prepare for that eventuality. IF gold is not hammered down THAT will be an important event in the current gold war.

As for the Iraqi ploy and the idea that war has been averted...forget it. The F-16s are still screaming towards the big Qatari airbase. The President is still right on his war plan regardless what the Senate will have to say. The Ukraine 200 nuke story was timed to convert more fence-sitters to the Admin's side.

The Prez will get his war and maybe the DOW will rocket on the news...

...what a country.

a nation of one (09/17/02; 19:31:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 85365)
JP Morgan Chase

Snippet: The bank's trading revenue in July and August was about $100 million, compared with $1.1 billion for all of the second quarter. The company cited ``less favorable results from trading positions in a challenging market environment'' for the decline.

What an interesting piece of twaddle.

The last part, if written in simple English, would go like this: "The company said "The terrible loses occurred because we were not competent to deal with the market." Or, like this: "The company said "The horrible results were due to the market being smarter than we were." Or maybe even, "The company said the losses happened because the market is too hard."

Brett Woods (09/17/02; 19:11:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 85364)
off topic
What happened to Microsoft after hours?? Is the quote on finance.yahoo.com right??

silvester (09/17/02; 19:10:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 85363)
BP Pipeline
http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=search&StoryID=1453992
Looks like oil will move from the Caspian one way or the other. Found it interesting that Russias' position would change after 911 last year?

slingshot (09/17/02; 18:48:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 85362)
Siege Engine
Gold Above $300.00
The wagons and carts now proceeded in single file from the Lords Castle,each adorned with the ornaments of a traveling show. It will take two days to reach the castle of the King with No Name. The Army of Goldbugs will follow one day behind as to not be detected.Being a slow journey they will practice their songs and lines of plays to complete the cloak. On arrival fanfare will fill the air. Jesters,acrobats, jugglars giving the performance of their lives , for their lives would be at stake.
They had the time to plan and with the help of those shown mercy were able to know the inside of the castle. The council were told the King with No Names castle was the largest anywhere. Sitting on a mountain with shear cliffs with only one entrance. Towers and spires that reached high into the sky. In the center a huge courtyard and the main structure of the castle, on the northside had a balcony that overlooked all. the Goldbugs would build their stage closest to the gate to give cover to the armys advance.

The demonstration now ended the gun crews moved the cannons to a staging area where cannon, wagon and supplies put together for the march to the Kings Castle.

Bonfir with his company of men, prepared for battle greeted Gandalf and Shadowfax was once again united with him.
A short time later the group walked down a ramped corridor which lead to the floor of the Valley of Clouds. Outside Gandalf mounted Shadowfax, looked back over to see Bonfir and his men,and gently prodded Shadowfax to go forward.The wheels were now set in motion.

The cavavan moved through the countryside unimpeded.As they drew closer to the castle, one would notice the absence of life. No people or animals. No villages. Orchards which bore no fruit. Barren and void except for the green of the trees and undergrowth.

On the second day the front wagons crested a hill and in the distance the castle rose and its size and beauty was beyond description. White as alabastar. Gold covered spires and walls fifty feet high. How many were within its walls. One entrance to trap them all. Hope and courage spurred them on.

About noon they had reached the massive gate and the guards seeing it was a traveling show readily opened the entrance
as the troup played music and danced about merrily. Inside they quickly went about setting up the stage and entertained the soldiers as they laugh at the antics of the jesters.

That afternoon the festivities began. Wine and food passed out to the enemy. The stage with its performers thrilled there hosts and before one could concieve time the main atraction was at hand.

The stage was cleared of all theactrical props and more torches lit. They let their audience wait to build anticipation. They had drank more wine and all were merry.
Some too merry.

Three figures walked upon the stage. Lady Waverider in the middle and Ladies Leigh and Siochaina on her sides. They wore the dress of middle eastern women, completely covered.
Standing still musicians of MOORISH Culture seated themselves in front of the stage bringing with them drums. cymbals, string instruments and horns unknown to all.

The music began and the figures began to sway and disrobe. The audience took notice in an instant. All eyes that were able, fixed on the beauty before them. Scantily dressed and jewlery to accent their bodily curves. The beat of the drums and cymbals with the movement of the women captivated ,even some goldbugs. One by one the Veils that covered their bodies fell to the stage floor.They were transfix on the movements , but when Lady Waverider began to sing a soft melody the trap was truly sprung.

The music filled the castle and was so loud that it signaled for the advance of the Goldbug army to the gates.

Yet in the trance of many, a figure appeared on the balcony.
Wearing a robe of white and the letters IMF in gold upon his chest and wearing also a mask of GOLD. Darkhorse standing by a wagon looked up to see him and nudgeing SECTOR exclaimed, HOLY MOLY, there he is! The KING with No Name could not even resist this spell himself.

Lady waverider could see Darkhorse and turned to see him. She motion for Leigh and Siochaina to move to the gate guards. She now devoted her attention to the King with No Name.
The Soldiers offered goblets of wine as they made their way to the gate. Leigh and Siochaina drank the rich wine and before reaching the guards slipped the Hemlock into the drinks. Timing was critical for Lady Waverider had few veils left. They dance up to the guards and pressed their bodies against them. The music reached its apex and they drank the poison mixture and the musiic faded away.

a nation of one (09/17/02; 18:44:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 85361)
to Zhisheng (09/17/02; 12:08:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 85307)

Thank you for your response. My education can always use improvement.

The most likely impression I am able to form from reading your comments is that they fill in some blanks concerning what I was saying, rather than overturn what I thought I understood. The means was not addressed particularly strongly, I think, in my original comments, and what you have added, it seems to me, is more or less consistent with the notions I was expressing. The introduction of ethnic Chinese into Tibet, for example, is another way of saying what I was saying, but in a concrete and specific way, whereas my statements were abstract and general. The meaning and import are the same, in my opinion.

Yes, I know that you are right in your comments about the Tao Te Ching. I do not agree that they are difficult to understand however, except in the fact that the original texts can be validly translated in numerous ways, not all having the same meaning evidently, and that, even when translated well, apparently, they can be extremely heady, certainly as cerebrial as anything produced by the West, if not more so. In my opinion, their difficulty -when read in English- comes from a basic incapatability of the two languages to express similar concerns in similar ways. I would expect that this is to some degree due to the ancient-world nature of the language in which the Tao Te Ching was originally written, in addition to the fact that it is Chinese. I have several editions and each gives a different feeling -and a different meaning in many cases- in translation. I like them all, for each has its own merits, even the one that is done least well, in my opinion. When I chose what version of the title to use in my post, I was referring to the Notes on The Translation written by R.L. Wing in 1986, which he included in his edition published by Doubleday that year. In it, He wrote: "...In the West, virtue suggests righteousness, but in fact Te is a term that refers to the potential energy that comes from being in the right place and in the right frame of mind at the right time. The early Chinese regarded the planting of seeds as Te, and Te came to mean stored energy or potentiality, and sometimes magic power. [These are his words, not mine.] Not until the widespread popularity of Confucian ideals centuries later, did Te begin to take on the meaning of socially imposed moral conduct, and this was eventually translated into English as "virtue." Therefore, following the lead of a number of other modern translators, I have returned the meaning of Te to its original concept, "Power."" If he is wrong about this, I expect he would like to know it. But I think the work makes more sense in this context. For it deals with what is necessary in order to achieve harmony between oneself and existence. Surely you must be right in that virtue would not be incorrect in this. But somehow to the male mind I also like the concept of power as having its source in the nature of things, and I feel that it too is not incorrect, whatever the original intention of the work may have been. Mr. Wing spells the author's name 'Lao Tzu,' and says that Lao Tzu was a philosopher of the sixth century B.C. You are correct in pointing out that the name is not always spelled this way. Mr. Wing says that the idea that the author of the Tao Te Ching was a philosopher is a legend. But it has also been said that the Greek poet Homer was a legend too, in fact that Homer did not write The Illiad and The Odyssey, but that some other man named Homer wrote them. What matters to me is that all of these works were actually at some time undertaken and completed, that somebody did them, that copies still exist, and that I have some of them, and am able to spend time with them, exerting my effort in trying to learn and understand what people in various times throughout human history have wanted to say to me, or at least, to people like me, who they knew would be interested in their ideas, and which certainly I am.

Blackjack (09/17/02; 17:37:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 85360)
Ford says CAW strike could be devastating
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co. President and Chief Operating Officer Nick Scheele acknowledged on Tuesday that a strike by the Canadian Auto Workers union could devastate the world's No. 2 automaker.

"If we are struck in Canada for a protracted period of time we essentially shut down North America," Scheele told an analysts' conference in New York.

Many of the V8 engines in Ford's full-size pickups and sport utility vehicles are built at a plant in Windsor, Ontario. The automaker also builds V6 engines for some of its best-selling trucks in Ontario.

Scheele's remark was thought to be the first comment by a senior Ford official acknowledging the automaker's vulnerability to a CAW strike. It came in answer to an analyst's question about whether Ford had stockpiled Canadian-built engines in the United States.

He said it had not done so, but added that he did not anticipate a strike.

Ford said earlier this year that it will close its F-Series pickup truck line in Oakville, Ontario, as part of a broad restructuring plan after the company's $5.45 billion loss last year.

CAW leader Basil Buzz" Hargrove has vowed to fight tooth and nail against the closure of the plant, which has about 1,400 hourly workers on a single shift. But Scheele said closure of the plant is a top priority, since it will cut about $1 billion in fixed costs for Ford per year.

"We have to close it down," he said.

Three-year contracts with the 44,000 CAW workers at plants run by Ford, General Motors Corp. and the Chrysler side of DaimlerChrysler AG all expire at midnight on Tuesday.

But the union is negotiating a new contract with GM before opening talks with the other two automakers.
___________
This is a major US company. Sorry to see them like this.
More labor problems. West Coast Dockworkers are also
threatening labor slowdowns.

Sierra Madre (09/17/02; 17:28:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 85359)
Fascinating prophecy!!

From "Morals and Dogma" (1871) by Albert Pike (1809-1891) who was a Civil War General and leader of Southern Scottish Rite Freemasonry (and the only Southern soldier with a monument in Washington, D.C.):

"A great final conflagration, magnified by the crisis between Islam and Judaism, will be necessary to establish definitely the New World Order".

Sierra

Blackjack (09/17/02; 17:17:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 85358)
Crude inventories fall big
New York, Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Crude-oil futures rose after the American Petroleum Institute reported a bigger-than- expected decline in U.S. inventories to the lowest level in 18 months.

Supplies in the week ended Friday fell 6.41 million barrels to 292 million barrels, the institute said. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg before the report expected a decline of less than 600,000 barrels. The drop may pressure OPEC members to boost their production targets when they meet this week, analysts said.

``Supplies will become real tight when we get into the fourth quarter, when we see winter demand peak,'' said Phil Flynn, a senior energy trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ``The onus will now be on OPEC to raise production.''

Crude oil for October delivery was up 33 cents, or 1.1 percent, at $29.41 a barrel at 5:54 p.m. in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Trading in the electronic session counts toward the close tomorrow.

Prices during today's floor session fell 59 cents, or 2 percent, to $29.08 a barrel after Iraq agreed to United Nations weapons inspections. The drop in prices dimmed prospects that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would raise crude- oil production quotas at its meeting Thursday in Osaka, Japan.
_______________
Since the economy is weak I suspect some of this is going into
strategic petroleum reserve.

Blackjack (09/17/02; 17:05:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 85357)
More problems ahead for JPM and Citi et al
BRASILIA, Brazil, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Three weeks before presidential elections in Brazil, some investors continue to question the sustainability of the country's debt burden given the financial market turmoil sparked by the imminent vote.

Many economists fear that Brazil's next president could undo some of the market-friendly economic reforms implemented by outgoing President Fernando Henrique Cardoso and even drive the country to debt default.

Investors' nervousness has pummeled the local currency, pushing up Brazil's debt levels since part of the domestic debt is indexed to the local currency and a fifth of the debt is issued abroad.

The following are details relevant to Brazil's debt equation. Net public debt figures for domestic and foreign debt are all according to the Central Bank's fiscal policy report as of the end of July. Debt: - Total net public debt-------819.38 billion reais ($252.12 billion) - Domestic net public debt----620.62 billion reais ($190.96 billion) - External net public debt----198.75 billion reais ($61.15 billion) -
________
Lula looks to win on first round. JPM will have more bad news
to report in the coming months.

slingshot (09/17/02; 16:52:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 85356)
USAGOLD
MK, USAGOLD
You have been most kind in our posting of the story Siege Engine. For reasons beyond my control I will be using a extra amount of bandwith to bring the story to almost conclusion. In a few moments I will gather my notes and continue the story. In the final episodes I wish I could have told the story in person to all of you, For my literary skills are poor but my enthusiasm great. Enjoy.
Singshot----------------<>

goldfool (09/17/02; 16:31:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 85355)
Mark my words someday Robert "the rigger" Rubin's name is going to forever associated with some financial fiasco.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020917/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/norton_contempt_4
Mr Ponzi And His Scheme, the John Law Scandal, Ivar Krueger, Richard Whitney......
His name keeps popping up in all kinds of financial controversies. Don't you think he deserves to be knighted by the queen like Sir Alan? Sir Rubin Hood.....(robs from the poor and gives to the rich) sure has a nice ring to it.

Boxman (09/17/02; 16:28:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 85354)
R Powell messege# 85344)/ Fleckenstein
Sorry Rich, I forgot to set my vcr before I left. Fleckenstein is one of my favorites, I was really looking forward to hearing him. Big dope slap to the side of my head.

Any others happen to catch him?

Paper Avalanche (09/17/02; 16:20:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 85353)
Thank you davefinger
eom

davefinger (09/17/02; 16:15:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 85352)
After-hours quotes
finance.yahoo.com provides them if you look up the symbol and click the "Real-time Mkt" link above the returned data. As of 6:06pm JPM is at 19.86.

CoBra(too) (09/17/02; 16:11:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 85351)
JPM - The allged King of Gold Derivatives
Looks like JPM is in big trouble - the bank too big to fail may soon become too big to bail.
The 64 thousand $ question is the expected shortfall in earnings only due to bad credit and proprietary trading (which doesn't exclude derivatives), or is the alleged largest gold derivative position - essentially a huge short
on physical bullion - becoming non re-payable in kind?

If so - there's big trouble ahead, since it's the only position not 'bailable' by Belgians' confetti - as it would afford real and hard money - gold. An asset not readily available, printable, nor affordable at these paper prices -ceterum censeo, J.P. Morganem esse delendam - as the time frame to acquire real money for confetti is inevitably drawing closer to its end.

Enjoy(ing) the acquisition of gold - while it's still too heavy for confetti - cb2

Quo Vadis, JPM and with it

Paper Avalanche (09/17/02; 16:06:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 85350)
I can't help myself....
Art Cashin is on CNBC telling Joe Sixpack that October will be the bottom and to start looking for cheap stocks.

Make your own joke here.

PA

Operative (09/17/02; 16:03:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 85349)
Level 4 Terror Alert (RED)
Fox News is scrolling Terror Alert 4 across the screen.
Whats Up????

Paper Avalanche (09/17/02; 16:01:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 85348)
But seriously folks...
Does anyone have a link to see after-hours trades for NYSE stocks?

TIA

PAPER AVALANCHE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

goldquest (09/17/02; 16:01:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 85347)
JPM
Turn out the lights, the party's over! Even the Fed won't be able to bail them out! Gold train, picking up speed!

kasperjack (09/17/02; 15:58:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 85346)
LTCM ALLEGEDLY DEFAULTED ON 300 TONNES
JPM rumors spreading like wildfire

In all likelyhood it was the need to physically
close out of the alleged LTCM gold
holdings that spawned the Washington
Accord. LTCM was a small player
when compared to JPM. Barricks
announcement was very timely today.
So was the Newcrest financing. No one
would like any messy hedge book to be
exploding during any purported crises
would they? Time will tell....

Paper Avalanche (09/17/02; 15:56:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 85345)
CNBC on JPM
Just reported that JPM's debt was downgraded.

Is that bad?

PA

R Powell (09/17/02; 15:51:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 85344)
Boxman
I just got home and missed Fleck. What did he say?
Thanks
Rich

Operative (09/17/02; 15:48:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 85343)
World Investment Cut In Half
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2264059.stm
Its getting tough out on Wall Street.

Operative (09/17/02; 15:38:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 85342)
JPM Story on Bloomberg
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topsum&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APYeetBRJSi5QLiBN
The little bobble thingy is starting to wiggle on the JPM Pressure Cooker.

The CoinGuy (09/17/02; 15:25:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 85341)
The Three Little Pigs
JPM, FRE, FNM

Looks as though the lipstick was misplaced today.

I, as well as many others posters here have always read Doug Noland's, "Credit Bubble Bulletin" with great interest over the last couple of years. My biggest fear has always been if/when Doug starts to gain credibility on his theories. With what I'm witnessing here, it seems to this knight it is an open/shut case. The upside/downside is we will see if this $20 figure really means something. JPM is trading @ 19.60 as I type.

On another note, everyone knows I'm a strong advocate for holding the physical metal first and foremost, but I do trade the mining sector, using these profits to add to my holdings of the metal.

So with that out of the way, these corrective moves in the unhedged miners are looking good(we were getting overbought), I think the yellow dog is going to be given an extended leash. 330-340 is looking like a good bet.

Good Luck to all,

The (physical) CoinGuy

Operative (09/17/02; 15:19:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 85340)
JPM @ $19.60 Afterhours !!!<smile>

Gold up afterhours. <Bigger Smile>

Aristotle (09/17/02; 15:16:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 85339)
Sir Topaz, you're BRILLIANT!!!!
Your suggestion for the World Gold Council to bolster demand:

"What about a "two for one" offer?
You purchase a .999, 1oz Bullion Coin....and get FREE a beautifully embossed Certificate for a further 1oz of Gold (or 5oz...or 10oz take your pick...subject to the terms and conditions on the back thereof of course)"

Oh my God... that is SOOOO elegant -- a profound way to deliver a key tutorial on the meaning and substance of Gold. Any fifth grader will see the point.

My hat is off to you!

Your pal,
Ari

Belgian (09/17/02; 14:54:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 85338)
Paying for a war with Iraq ? Jude Wanninsky
http://polyconomics.com/showarticle.asp?articleid=2207
A must read !

Black Blade (09/17/02; 14:49:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 85337)
RE Waverider, Operative, Paper Avalanche, and Blackjack

Waverider -- thanks, today there's been a "plethora" of reports flowing through the ether concerning the global markets as opposed to the drought of news yesterday. It is always amazing how quickly events unfold.

Operative -- I know what you mean, my ex used to occasionally reel in a monster when I got skunked. Regarding the TV gold investment interviews -- I saw a rerun from CNNfn early this morning with the portfolio manager of USERX. He slammed the hedgers and said that he focuses on nonhedgers. Curious that CNBC always has guests who are either CEO's of heavily hedged gold miners or portfolio managers who invest in Gold but hate doing so. Very bizarre. Anyway, I head off to the hills for a couple of hours to scope out and slay a mighty beast (elk) and hopefully stock up for the year, then a couple of hours in the gym. Been getting back late at night lately. Cheers!

Paper Avalanche -- According to Ted Butler Barrick has hedged (sold forward) a large amount of silver. I am not all that familiar with the Barrick Silver hedges though. But it would not surprise me. Yesterday Tim Wood of miningweb had an article about "magnetic silver". The examples were quite amusing and some even quite funny. I just imagine the salespeople trying to explain away the magnetic properties of silver jewelry. Very funny actually. I wonder why a jeweler would not focus on silver jewelry with a good reputation such as the Silver jewelry from Taxco, Mexico. Anyway reading the miningweb article is good for a smile at least.

Blackjack -- Note that corporate and consumer debt is already at record levels. This is not good at all. I keep advising all to get out of debt while they can. The current low interest rates are lulling people into a sense of false security. It will get very ugly if rates turn higher and the real estate bubble pops. Then all other debt will implode as well. In a word -- "Grim".

Cheers!

- Black Blade

Off to slay a beast!

Black Blade (09/17/02; 14:43:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 85336)
JP Morgan Chase -- Huge Write offs!!!

JP Morgan Chase will apparently announce huge losses in a conference call at 5:15 pm EST. Don't know all the gory details, but it was just announced on CNBC that the banker will warn of very poor performance for the quarter well below what is expected. "Interesting"

- Black Blade

kasperjack (09/17/02; 14:42:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 85335)
On Deck Iran
http://www.menewsline.com/stories/2002/september/09_17_2.html
The ahotollas will add more debt to the growing debt pile. In fact this war if it happens has tremendous potential to sweep the entire region.

kasperjack (09/17/02; 14:37:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 85334)
JPM Warns On Earnings
Don't worry they made the dividend

JPMorgan Chase Declares Regular Quarterly
Dividend
Company Also Announces Third Quarter 2002 Earnings to
be Well Below Second Quarter 2002 -Reuters
****
the alleged $20 area of testing may be broached shortly

Belgian (09/17/02; 14:30:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 85333)
@ Carl H.
1/ A strong dollar makes debt the more heavy !
2/ A weak/weaker dollar makes gives debt some more time to be serviced.

And since we are all accumulating but debt...the conclusion is rather evident. The oil-affair is only acting as catalyst for the final unwinding of the debt process.
A catalyst is by definition an inert chemical that induces/enhances a process.
When the US administration, explicitely, states that the Iraqi business is a matter of weeks, not months....we must be dealing with some emergency. The relative highly sustained POO is suffocating economic activity already. The consumption of 75 million barrils a day at 15$ or 30$, does make a big difference in this globe's shrinking budged (economy). More precisely a difference of 1 Billion US$ / per day to spend more on the crude oil invoices. 1 Billon $/day = 100 tonnes of Gold per day, where only 10 tonnes of Gold is newly mined per day.

Every day that the POO fetches 30$/barril, the ME can buy 1 tonne of Gold per day (1% of 100 tonnes) (absorb the Swiss 1 tonne/day sale), without having spend more on Gold than under normal conditions (15$/barril) .

The same kind of simple maths can be done for Japanese huge savings in US$, when US$ debt becomes heavier or lighter (high-infla/low-defla > IRs).

I can't see anything else but a positive price-spiral for the yellow. POG's intraday vibration was another sign of increased volatility, regardless of news un-events.
The proclaimed war-premium in the present POG is absolutely nothing against the coming debt-premium still to materialize.

The most recent bailouts of Mobilcom (Germany) and British Energy (UK) are blatant examples of unavoidable deficit spending with only a few days of history. W're talking here again about hundreds of Millions of Euro/pounds, thrown into the arena, where the gladiators must die. Oh dear !

goldfool (09/17/02; 14:27:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 85332)
Kasperjack - More Barrick HOOEY
Otherwise known as blatherskite, bosh, claptrap, double-talk, flapdoodle, drivel, pishposh, rubbish, twaddle; gibberish, babble, Greek, jabber, jabberwocky, nonsense, skimble-skamble.

Boxman (09/17/02; 14:22:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 85331)
Bill Fleckenstein on CNBC
I just caught a glimpse as I was passing by the TV. I believe he will be on at 5:00 eastern time. Hope that he mentions gold in his comments.

kasperjack (09/17/02; 14:20:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 85330)
Re Growing Debt Pile
http://www.msnbc.com/news/808595.asp

$200 billion is peanuts if Iran is also included as a target. I lost my Iranian nuclear link. Maybe If I have time...

Waverider (09/17/02; 14:18:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 85329)
DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
Quick-link to an excellent DMR!

Operative (09/17/02; 14:16:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 85328)
@ Black Blade
Thanks
Thanks for explaining some furthur details on the UN inspections. Of late I have either been playing hard (camping) or working hard around the farm and have been unable to keep up with the news. Would tell you about some fish slaying, but the wife caught the biggest one, again. (hanging head in shame)

Your Daily Report is a MUST READ when I get a few minutes on the computer. Keep it up, job well done!

Regards Oliphant/Barrick. Lets just say that if it was up to me, the CEO of a mega hedger would not make the top 1000 guests to be invited to speak on gold. However, I am so deprived of gold news that I am just happy to see the subject brought up at all, that goes double for those at CBNC Bubblevision. Maybe CNBC could get Ron Paul on to explain the Fed Reserve and why GOLD is the Real Thing!(That will be the day!)

Take Care, Operative.

Paper Avalanche (09/17/02; 14:13:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 85327)
@ Black Blade
Did Oliphant suggest to viewers that they should carry a magnet with them if they want to buy sterling silver jewelry? Just wondering.

Thanks.
PA

Paper Avalanche (09/17/02; 14:13:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 85326)
@ Black Blade
Did Oliphant suggest to viewers that they should carry a magnet with them if they want to buy sterling silver jewelry? Just wondering.

Thanks.
PA

Blackjack (09/17/02; 14:08:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 85325)
Debt growing at fastest rate in 10 years
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/business/1578025
Experts worried about ever-increasing consumer and business borrowing had new cause for concern Monday, as a new Federal Reserve report showed overall debt levels jumped at the fastest rate in over a decade.

The Fed's massive but often overlooked flow-of-funds report showed that total debt outside of banks and the rest of the financial sector surged 7.8 percent in the second quarter, much sharper than the first quarter's 4.8 percent rise and the highest quarterly increase since 1989.

Overall, total nonfinancial debt outstanding, which includes home mortgages, consumer credit and government and business debt, grew by nearly $400 billion, to $19.99 trillion.

Several economists and stock market analysts have fretted in recent weeks about debt levels and the ability of consumers and businesses to meet their obligations. A surge in defaults could have drastic effects on the economy and stocks, they say, and even relatively small gains in debt loads can crimp new spending, which would damage the still-fragile economic recovery.

Others, however, note that debt as a percentage of net worth, while rising, is generally below peak levels of a decade ago. They say the situation, while not ideal, is manageable.
_____
Neither a borrower or a lender be. Yes, a surge in defaults could
have a drastic effect i.e. recession or worse.
Get you some Gold and Silver

Topaz (09/17/02; 14:00:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 85324)
Paper Avalanche, kasperjack.
PA:-
We're certainly on the same page there PA,
Regds.
kasperjack:-
Watch those Bond Yields like a hawk kj, the Treasuries might well be Weapons of Mass Destruction so often referred to lately, as an explosive move up OR down from here could sound the death nell of $US hegemony.

kasperjack (09/17/02; 13:58:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 85323)
Gemstoned
already linked in unless well... uh....
After the best "pro-gold" year in more than a Decade we see the PoG has done very little
pricewise...Why?-Topaz

Read much fellow. Gold fields mineral services says gold demand is down 14% this year.lol A lot of unbelievable stories are appearing on the gold front nowadays.India and all huh? heh heh Maybe if they threw a worthless gem like a Tpaz in with their gold then maybe then perhaps huh? lol

Black Blade (09/17/02; 13:54:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 85322)
POG Rising

In spite of all the hoopla over Iraqi "concessions" and the knee-jerk drop in the price of Gold, the price of Gold is gaining - up a dollar in after hours trade. What this means is that after a $3 plus drop on the "news", Gold has recovered all losses and even gained over the last 24 hours. What "fun", I guess I did say that today's market action was going to be "entertaining".

- Black Blade

Gandalf the White (09/17/02; 13:52:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 85321)
HAIL Sir CB2 === WHAT Me ? --AN ARBITRATOR ?
I think that I should be honored to be such, BUT perhaps that would be one of those questions that because of unavailable data and hidden sources, is impossible to COMPLETELY answer. I know that I too feel that companies paying down the "HEDGE Books" is good for the COMPANY, but is it good for the POG ? That may be dependent on whom the "BOOKIE" "is" to whom the payment is MADE !! IF the "BOOKIE" just resells or makes a tonne of more DERIVATIES, then the hedge paydown is most likely not good for the POG ! I and the Hobbits just get a migraine thinking about it !
SORRY
<;-)

kasperjack (09/17/02; 13:50:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 85320)
More HOOEY
http://www.mips1.net/mggold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256C37006952B1?OpenDoc ument

Barrick said it is targeting a hedge book of 12 million ounces by end 2003. At first blush this
looks like another hedge reduction announcement, and the news wires have reported it as
such, but it merely confirmed that Barrick would stick to its contractual obligations.

As at end June, Barrick had 17.9 million ounces covered by hedging, and this would be
reduced through attrition to about 13.7 million ounces by year end with an increase in
deliveries through the third and fourth quarters. That makes the 1.7 million ounce reduction
envisaged for 2003 less than aggressive, although Oliphant said the company would close
additional ounces opportunistically at lower gold prices.

Jamie Sokalsky, chief financial officer, said in a statement that no further hedging would be
undertaken since "interest rates are at 40-year lows, leading to lower forward premiums;
Barrick
has never been stronger financially; and the outlook for gold prices is positive." During the
conference call,

Oliphant ruled out the purchase of put options at higher prices and said the
company is committed to retaining a simple structure. He also alluded to dangerous
complexity in the hedge books of some competitors.
***
Oh wow. Now it is the other guys who are running complicated hedge book strategies. This guy is more ingeuine than well I'm all for peace with my fellow posters...

Black Blade (09/17/02; 13:47:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 85319)
Operative

The rumor is that the ambassador of the "Arab League" brokered the Iraqi deal and that the weapons inspections is confined to military installations. I cover this in today's "Afternoon Gold Market Report". It appears that only foriegn investors were fooled and the suckers rallies in Euroland and Asia were premature.

I also saw Randall Oliphant talk about pushing a jewelry sales campaign this coming holdiays in 7 major markets. I am not opposed to marketing gold for jewelry, but I think that marketing for portfolio insurance/investmnet should be passed up either. The Barrick announcemnet of cutting back on hedges is a positive move (though somewhat tepid). He did discuss falling gold production and mentioned that Barick will be the only producer to "double" production. Of course that is through acquisitions of other mines so overall production will still not increase. I wonder who they intend to takeover as unhedged miner shareholders will likely vote against any merger so it must be a move into Australia or merging with a large hedger like Placer Dome perhaps?

"Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

Paper Avalanche (09/17/02; 13:38:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 85318)
@ Topaz
your comment "we see the PoG has done very little pricewise...Why?" leads me to question the "P" in the PoG. Given that the PoG as we know it does not reflect anything other than a managed perception, one might simply look for another "pricing" mechanism (SGE, etc.). The gold trail challenges us to try and "price" real money (gold) in make believe money (dollars). The better question, IMHO, is can such a comparison ever be made?

Danke schoen.

PA

Guided (09/17/02; 13:32:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 85317)
Rep Ron Paul
Very refreshing post Operative from a great man.

I hope GWB listens to him. I think he also advocates abolishing the IRS.

What a dream. This man loves freedom and truth.

Topaz (09/17/02; 13:31:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 85316)
WGC
After the best "pro-gold" year in more than a Decade we see the PoG has done very little pricewise...Why?
The World Gold Council indeed has a hard row to hoe looking forward and perhaps we here at the Forum can suggest some ideas for the new management team to add some "sparkle" to this languishing "investment product".
I'll go first:-
What about a "two for one" offer?
You purchase a .999, 1oz Bullion Coin....and get FREE a beautifully embossed Certificate for a further 1oz of Gold (or 5oz...or 10oz take your pick...subject to the terms and conditions on the back thereof of course)

That might work!

Operative (09/17/02; 13:30:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 85315)
Barrick CEO on CNBC
Randall Oliphant, CEO of Barrick Gold just completed an interview on CNBC with Maria. Thought he fended Maria's questions such as "can gold keep holding up..?" rather well. Oliphant explained that gold production is/will continue to fall but demand will continue to grow. Compared to previous interviews Oliphant seems to be getting used to the bright lights and cameras appearing relaxed and authorative.

Slow, but sure, the message is getting out.

Operative (09/17/02; 13:19:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 85314)
Saying What Needs To Be Said, But Is Anyone Listening?
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=28964
Snip:
"A Republican lawmaker has introduced legislation to
abolish the Federal Reserve as a way to "restore financial
stability" to the country and re-establish the once-used
gold standard.

"Since the creation of the Federal Reserve, middle and
working-class Americans have been victimized by a
boom-and-bust monetary policy," said Rep. Ron Paul,
R-Texas, in a speech to colleagues on the House
floor. "

Paper Avalanche (09/17/02; 13:19:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 85313)
@ Carl H
your comment "A bullion bank who is already short a few thousand tons of gold and has nothing more to loose." makes me think about the consumer who is so far in debt that he decides to have one more big blow out before declaring bankruptcy. IMO, certain corprate entities have been selected to default when the POG goes through the roof and those shell companies are assuming agnets to the counter-party risk of many of the big POG players. Bank A wants to keep the POG down and so directs it's subisdiary (which it does not "own") to sell 10 contracts for every 8 contracts bought. The math is simple and I believe that this is why those on the gold trail have predicted that fail up, or fail down, the US$ gold market will indeed fail due to lack of credibility when other gold price discovery mechanisms (Shanghai gold exchnage) create an arbitrage opportunity.

I may be wrong.

Paper Avalanche!!!!!!!!!!

Operative (09/17/02; 13:08:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 85312)
By Any Other Name ...
http://www.iht.com/articles/70904.htm
Snip:
"Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said Monday that
U.S. pilots already had begun attacking air command and
communications facilities in Iraq, and not just anti-aircraft weapons and radar."

Comment: While the world awaits the UN and the Media to formerly announce that the "war" as begun....the US Military is "kicking it up a notch".

Operative (09/17/02; 12:57:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 85311)
IMF Gains Support For Bankruptcy Changes for Countries
http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAJPRG386D.html
The beginning of an International Bankruptcy Standard/Court?

Operative (09/17/02; 12:44:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 85310)
Adding More Tinder To the Middle East
http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/breaking_1.html
Lebanon and Israel at odds over water supply.

Operative (09/17/02; 12:36:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 85309)
Did Not Last Long...
CNBC just reported that according to a London source the offer from Saddam applies ONLY to military bases. <grin>

Black Blade (09/17/02; 12:20:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 85308)
Charles Schwab to Cut 1,880 Jobs
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/020917/schwab_job_cuts_2.html

Discount Broker Charles Schwab to Cut 10 Percent of Staff, Or About 1,880 Jobs

Snippit:

SAN JOSE, Calif. (AP) -- Charles Schwab Corp. said Tuesday that it will cut about 10 percent of its work force, or roughly 1,880 jobs, as the discount and online brokerage continues to struggle with weak trading volumes.

Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" grows. Weak trading volume eh?

Zhisheng (09/17/02; 12:08:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 85307)
Comments on China Thoughts (#: 85296)
China now does have a policy of importing ethnic Chinese to its outlying areas to strengthen political control, such as in Tibet, and in some of the areas where Muslim influence is strong. It is my impression however that this was not always the case---at least via direct government policy. Chinese tradition leads to large families, especially in the countryside, and without prima-geniture, the farms become ever smaller and it becomes ever more difficult for farmers to make a living: hence the motive, and even necessity, to emmigrate.

There is also the entrapreneurship influence. Chinese are quick to take advantage of economic opportunities, and when they have access to a country (such as one over which China may have actual or nominal political dominance ), they will enter the business community and often prosper quite rapidly. Such accumulation of wealth often brings political influence, but also resentment and retribution as well, and there have been many examples of both, both historical and recent.

But generally the impetus to Chinese expansion is the combination of a hard-working intelligent people, in many cases confined to an overpopulated and outworn countryside, looking for a way to improve themselves. Granted there is some official exploitation of this pent-up force, but much of it is natural and not planned.

In closing I wish to correct the allusion to the Tao Te Ching. This is a very old text, traditionally attributed to Lao Tze, but no one really knows who wrote it or when it was written. To call it "The Way of Power" is a mischaracterization. Direct translation of the title is "The Classic of the Way and Virtue". It is one of the principal classics of Taoism, and the teachings included therein are not easy to explain or even understand. But one of the main ideas associated with it is that one must work with the Tao or "Way" , and not directly employ power to attain an end.

Chris Powell (09/17/02; 11:50:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 85306)
Reuters corrects Newmont hedge reduction story
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1228
Reuters corrects its dispatch about Newmont's
hedge reduction, which is much less than first
reported:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1228

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

sector (09/17/02; 11:39:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 85305)
@ pizz About the shipboard traces of radiation
..it came from pottery
Yes... Pottery.

Certain clay ceramics contain low-level radioactive elements that will register on geiger-counters. Even common table salt is radioactive. Any un-glazed pottery will therefore leave traces in shipping containers when the pots are rubbed against one another during transport.

Nothing to be worried about...this time.

Belgian (09/17/02; 11:13:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 85304)
Weaponary in the ME......
What has changed is the following : In the past it was the US as biggest oil-consumer, who decided on what weaponary should be bought by ME countries as to recycle petro-dollars back into the US. The armement *was* only a formality for amusement. Now, Iraq in particular, wants to decide what weaponary and from who it is buying/exchanging for oil. It isn't funny to lose a good and potent/solvable, client (ME) and see him going to different competitors (Russia/China/India). The same situation exists in Pakistan that provides its weaponary, mainly, from China.

Having the world's only remaining vast amounts of cheap oil + SOPHISTICATED WEAPONARY, is a very dangerous price- coctail for crude oil ! This arms/oil combination might become as powerfull as the US's military might/dollar-reserve currency.

So you see, Sir Socrates, the more we elaborate on what is going on, the less consensus is possible >>> because there are so many variables in play.
The only consensus that is keeping us here together is our shared vieuw(s) / believes, on the utmost importance of Gold's role in the nearby future.

The coming/ongoing war, estimated to cost between 100 > 200 Billion US$ is the equivalent of 10.000 > 20.000 tonnes of Gold ! And taking into account that the US has only 8.000 tonnes of Gold in its vaults. With a gold-standard, no war would be possible (Ferdinand Lips). But we will try to remain on an oil standard with strong conviction.

Carl H (09/17/02; 11:00:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 85303)
Hedging/ Unwinding of Hedging
I know the common perception is that unwinding of hedging is bullish. That is true only if the original hedging was done via borrowing gold and selling it AND the unwinding is putting that gold back in the vault where it came from (thus depriving the market of that supply).

Consider also that there are other types of hedges:

1. Buying puts

2. Selling future production

These operations never delivered physical to the market at their inception. Closing them simply puts the gold in the hands of the counter party of the hedge. A counter party that probably wants lower gold prices.

kasperjack (09/17/02; 10:55:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 85302)
Carl H
There are a slew of hedged gold miners out there that needed gold to close out their hedge books yesterday. Approximately 80 million ounces worth at the end of this month. What is th $316 X 80 million= uh $24 billion plus. OUCH!

Carl H (09/17/02; 10:51:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 85301)
@Kasperjack: Two to tango
A bullion bank who is already short a few thousand tons of gold and has nothing more to loose.

kasperjack (09/17/02; 10:42:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 85300)
It Takes Two To Contango
So Barrick returns the gold it hedged. Who in their right mind will rurn around and resell that gold with the current contango rate.

Blackjack (09/17/02; 10:40:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 85299)
South America in growing economic crisis.
ASUNCION, Paraguay (AP) -- Police fired tear gas and water cannons to clear thousands of anti-government demonstrators from the capital's main square early Tuesday, injuring at least 40 protesters.

In a clash lasting only minutes, some 2,000 riot police and special forces ended an all-night demonstration by approximately 6,000 protesters demanding the resignation of President Luis Gonzalez Macchi.

The clashes highlighted resurgent popular discontent with the government because of chronic corruption and a protracted economic recession lashing this landlocked South American nation.
At least 11 police officers were hit by flying stones and debris during the melee, Police Chief Sixto Ramirez said. Police on horseback also helped break up the protest.

Ramirez said that 250 men were detained during the demonstration. ``A group of women were picked up but we let them go,'' Ramirez told reporters.

The protest began building last Friday when opponents of the Gonzalez Macchi government began arriving from the countryside.

``The people are hungry,'' read protest signs carried by the demonstrators, many of whom camped out for days on the main Asuncion plaza fronting the ornate pink colonial legislature building.

Authorities warned Monday night that they would use force to break up the protest.

Many of the demonstrators expressed unabashed support for Lino Cesar Oviedo, an influential former armed forces chief who is now living in exile in Brazil and is widely believed to have played a part in at least two failed coup attempts since 1996.
_____________
The region will turn to anti-american and anti-capitalist leaders. Bad news for JPM and Citi. Chavez is helping Lula and Lula will help Oviedo. If Lula wins in Brazil he could influence politics all through SA with the help of Chavez and Castro.

CoBra(too) (09/17/02; 10:34:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 85298)
Carl H. - Re Unwinding of Hedges
You said ... - The common perception seems to be that unwinding of hedges is bullish for gold. This conclusion is based on one very important assumption -- that the market is deprived of the gold that is delivered into the hedges. My guess is that this is not the case. Rather, the gold is delivered to the bullion bank who rather than returning it to the central bank sells it in the market.

This may actually be bad news since the bullion bank would like to loose money on selling the gold (meaning the price is kept down). By contrast, if the gold producer were selling it, the would want to maximize the price that they receive. - ... and I ask - What Gold?

Actually - The Gold has been sold already - id est forward and will or will not be produced - depending on price.

...So, IMHO, any unwinding of gold hedges should be positive for the POG as it reducves current supply. Though, I admit, I may be totally wrong as the derivative community may have come up up with new math bordering on alchemy.

Let's ask G. the Wiz as abitrator... cb2

kasperjack (09/17/02; 10:27:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 85297)
Carl H What Do You Say To Dis
Excerpt From Reuters Today

A reduction in forward sales of gold by miners has been a major factor
behind
gold's rally this year to its highest level in more than two years.

A reduction in forward sales effectively removes a cap on prices by
limiting supply
to the market and by creating demand for the metal as miners seek to
purchase
gold to effectively buy back their previous hedges.

"The news from Barrick that it will materially cut its hedgebook by the end
of 2003
strengthens the longer-term picture for the metal," said John Reade, metals
analyst at UBS Warburg.

"This news was unexpected, as previously we had expected the company
to
reduce its net position by around one million ounces by the end of 2002.
We were
expecting a reduction of the global producer book of about 8 million
ounces for
2003," Reade said.

a nation of one (09/17/02; 10:26:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 85296)
china thoughts

China's strategy for expansion is not the same as that of the U.S. The people who established the U.S. did so in a short period of time, from 1492 to about 1776, approximately 284 years, and it is still expanding. Too rapid, for now they are beginning to lose it, and they don't even know it. China today is essentially the same nation that it was five thousand years ago, though it has had different forms of government during that time. This cannot be said of France, England, Germany, or any European nation. Nor can it be said of anything in Africa, the near East, or elsewhere that I know of. China has sustained its nationality, therefore, longer than any other, not by a little but by a lot. They completely populate whatever territory they possess, maximizing their people within it and possessing it totally. Only then do they expand, a little at a time, never more than they can handle, and slowly, over decades or centuries or millennia. This acquisition by small pieces is then followed by very gradual consolidation. They are able to hold tenaciously to acquired territory. After their ownership of an area is no longer subject to debate, and is completely populated by Chinese, then they are ready to take something else. This principle is very well understood by many field grade officers in militaries of the West, but it is not practiced by Western populations in any significant way. This description of the practice of this principle by the Chinese people, however, is consistent with the observations of the historian Arnold Toynbee, and can be seen as being espoused in the writings of the Ancient Chinese people themselves, as in such texts as Sun Tzu's The Art of War, in Lao Tzu's the Tao Te Ching (The Way of Power), as well as in their traditional religious attitudes and beliefs.

kasperjack (09/17/02; 10:24:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 85295)
World Gold Council On the Move
http://www.gold.org/pr_archive/html/020902.html

TWO ADDITIONS TO THE INVESTMENT
TEAM AT THE WORLD GOLD COUNCIL

The Executive Committee of the World Gold
Council is pleased to announce the appointment of
two new
members of the senior management team. Stuart
Thomas is Managing Director of its newly formed
subsidiary, World Gold Trust Services LLC and
based in the World Gold Council's New York
office he will be
responsible for developing a new gold investment
product. Simon Village will be Managing
Director
Investment Services based in London with a
similar remit to promote gold investment products
globally
on behalf of the World Gold Council.

The creation of innovative gold-backed financial
products will increase interest in gold as an
investment.
This is one initiative of several that will
reinvigorate the Council ...

Carl H (09/17/02; 10:18:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 85294)
Unwinding of Hedges
The common perception seems to be that unwinding of hedges is bullish for gold. This conclusion is based on one very important assumption -- that the market is deprived of the gold that is delivered into the hedges. My guess is that this is not the case. Rather, the gold is delivered to the bullion bank who rather than returning it to the central bank sells it in the market.

This may actually be bad news since the bullion bank would like to loose money on selling the gold (meaning the price is kept down). By contrast, if the gold producer were selling it, the would want to maximize the price that they receive.

Blackjack (09/17/02; 10:15:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 85293)
Lula gaining in Brazil
Sao Paulo, Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's bonds and currency fell for a fourth day on concern Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party will win the presidency in a first- round vote, mismanage the economy and spark a debt default.

``Brazil is always borrowing money, and it doesn't put any investor at ease,'' Lula said in an interview with CBN radio this morning. ``The new government will redirect the Brazilian economy and create jobs.''

Brazilian assets have dropped by a more than a quarter this year on investor concern Lula may devote Brazil's capital to promoting jobs and growth at the expense of paying its debts on time. Declines in Brazil's bonds and currency drive up the costs of servicing its public debt, which surged 9.8 percent to 1.1 trillion reais ($339 billion) in July.

Investor worries about overspending have grown along with concern Lula may relax inflation controls imposed by President Fernando Henrique Cardoso. That would trigger a drop in bond and stock prices, erode consumer purchasing power, crimp corporate profits and make it harder for businesses to plan ahead, investors said.

``Basically Lula is a socialist,'' said Jonathan Binder, who helps manage about $600 million in emerging market bonds at Standard Asset Management in Miami. ``He wants to take money from the rich and give to the poor. That isn't going to solve the immediate problems Brazil has today, which are economic growth, debt sustainability, and (attracting) foreign investment.''
___________
More bad news for JPM, Citi. World Banks will take a hit from
Brazil if Lula wins election.

Knallgold (09/17/02; 10:13:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 85292)
@sector@pizz et al.
Thanks for the certification discussion.

Pizz (09/17/02; 10:11:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 85291)
Run or Pass??
Back in high school I used to play linebacker. The toughest decision a linebacker had to make was when to committ on a quarterback rollout. Run or Pass??? Commit too early and you've got a 10 yard completion over your head in the flat. Commit too late and you've got a 5 or six yard gain on the run.

Bush is in the same senario with Saddam. We're going to get a bloody nose out of this at the minimum. Personally I think the least we'll get is a broken arm or leg.

The last six months of procrastination have been nothing more than time for the banks to offload (securitize) as much debt as possible and get it off their balance sheets (it's gone to the funds, insurance companies, etc. and long term they're all toast).

Our entire transportation system is in such dire financial straights that they will go under at even $20 oil within a year. Oh, but we can nationalize them -- and I say with what? We have no assets - period. And which foreign entity is strong enough to buy all our current debt let alone our future deficits as they try to monitze it??? And even if their was this sugar daddy out there, why would they? I can't think of a good reason.

We have energy problems, dollar problems, debt problems, and confidence problems. The energy problem is fore-front. If we continue to do nothing, does anyone honestly think that the voters of the US are willingly going to take a cut in their standard of living to support the military of the worlds last superpower? The Soviets tried it and look what happened to them. It all boils down to money, and frankly, we're out of the solid stuff.

I think Bush has waited about three months too long, but we'll see. I get real concerned about incomming ships with traces of radiation. I can't think of too many legal or benign things THAT COULD HAVE BEEN TRANSPORTED. WHAT, WHERE AND WHEN are the problems and how many have we missed?

China? Their mind set is much different and very long term. They'll sit back and watch. They are in a win, win big senario without doing anything. On the otherhand, I think we're in a lose, lose big senario, and the longer we wait, the better chance we have of losing big and bigger.

Tough spot to be in. I think right now I'd commit to rushing the quarter back and hope like hell he doesn't complete the pass, because I don't think the receivers are fully in their patterns yet. And besides, I think out of the corner of my eye I see one big tackle bearing down on me - use it or lose it???

Pizz

Knallgold (09/17/02; 10:06:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 85290)
@Belgian
It seems I'm still too naive to expect anything from the miners.Why does it just not go into my brain (rhetoric,32 years living in paper-diaper did it to me).So thanks Belgian for having patience to educate this fiat victim :-)

The more one thinks about this 30000 POG number,the more it appears reasonable.I don't think FOA gave it for pure sensational purpose,this debt IS here and won't be payed off as promised-what else makes it again "affordable"?
1. forgive it 2. devalue it (against what if its worldwide?)

If it can be payed off/at least backed with a simple "bookkeeping trick",ie revalue an asset you own by a factor of 100 it would do the least harm to the current way of life.

Switzerland expects to get 20billions for its 1300t Gold on sale-Gold valued at 10x its current price would give 200billions.Coincidentally,this is the exact debt number of state and cantons together-and we we still have another 1400t Gold left in the vault after the sale.Maybe thats why the 1300t are being called excess?

In the late seventies,the whole thing was halted after Gold made a 25x rise.Is it so crazy to expect 50-100x now?

kasperjack (09/17/02; 10:00:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 85289)
Topaz
The Euro-Dollar Valuation and the Price Of Gold
The anti hedging faction led by its new and proudest new associate Barrick is going to put your thesis to a test over the near term. Yeah the dollar will be challenged to maintain its value for a variety of reasons. But Don't discount the supply demand equation for gold in your calculations.

a nation of one (09/17/02; 09:45:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 85288)
charts suggest

Gold is preparing to move strongly to the upside.

Trurl (09/17/02; 09:44:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 85287)
Nickel in Jewelry
http://www.usatoday.com/usatonline/20020917/4453462s.htm
The link is about Nickel in the larger Euro coins causing nickel reations in some people. This part was interesting, as it may be another piece of the puzzle in the ongoing magnetic silver findings in this country.

Snippit:

Because nickel allergies are common, the European Union has a safety regulation on the nickel content in jewelry, watchbands and other items worn against the skin for prolonged periods. Nestle's report estimates the nickel released by the euro coin exceeds the limit by 240 to 320 times

end Snippit

I wonder if North American countries have similar standards?

sector (09/17/02; 09:41:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 85286)
ALERT AS NUCLEAR BOMBS GO MISSING
Drudge Report.

[EXPRESS]

TWO hundred nuclear warheads have gone missing in a country suspected of selling high tech arms to Iraq, it emerged last night.

The terrifying revelation will heighten fears that Saddam Hussein could be just one step away from having all the ingredients of an atomic bomb. He has threatened terrorist attacks if Britain and America confront him. The warheads, which have vanished in the former Soviet republic of Ukraine, contain enough highly-radioactive plutonium to destroy every capital in Europe and North America several times over. An opposition leader in Ukraine, which has a long history of selling radioactive materials, said that allegations of missing warheads had been confirmed in an investigation by the chaotic country's parliament.

Both Iraq and Osama Bin Laden's Al Qaeda network are known to have tried to obtain atomic bomb components from Ukraine.

Communist Party leader Petro Symonenko said: "Out of 2,400 nuclear warheads which were on Ukrainian territory, the withdrawal of only 2,200 warheads has been verified. The fate of the remaining 200 warheads is unknown."

Ukraine was supposed to hand over to Russia all nuclear weapons that were stationed on its territory when the USSR collapsed. This should have been completed by 1997.
But Serhiy Sinchenko, head of the parliamentary investigation, admitted that some of the missiles had been "lost".

Ukraine's government said yesterday that the allegations were "unfounded" but their statement failed to answer why paperwork on the whereabouts of 200 missiles and warheads was missing.

The country's security services said they were investigating the claims.

The possibility that huge stocks of plutonium could be for sale comes as a secret tape is said to confirm Ukrainian politicians' involvement in selling high-tech weapons to Iraq.

Washington is examining secret recordings of a conversation between Ukrainian president Leonid Kuchma and the head of the country's military export service, Valeriy Malev.

The tape, made by a bodyguard who has since fled Ukraine, is said to contain evidence of military sales to Iraq of Kalchuga radar equipment through shadowy Jordanian middle men. Malev cannot be questioned because he died in a mysterious road accident in March.

It is not the first time that allegations have been made of exSoviet nuclear weapons going astray.

The former head of Russia's security council, Alexander Lebed, claimed that nuclear "briefcase" bombs were also unaccounted for. Kuchma has recently boasted of his warm links with Iraq, even though his country is seeking Nato and European Union membership.

Two weeks ago he said there were "good prospects for development of our relations" with Baghdad.

Andy McClean, of Saferworld, a think tank that monitors the arms trade, said: "We have long seen former Soviet countries becoming suppliers of arms to conflict areas."

Professor Gary Milhollin, of Iraq Watch, a US think tank tracking Baghdad's weapons development, said: "It's about time there was a clampdown on Saddam's procurement network and the means he employs to finance it."

An Iraqi defector has claimed that Iraq has managed to "pirate" sophisticated German centrifuges needed to convert low quality uranium to weapons grade.

Khidir Hamza said that Iraq has developed hundreds of the machines which may have been in use since late 1998. It would take around four years of continual refining before the uranium was suitable for weapons use, meaning that Saddam could be in possession of the bomb by this Christmas.

Hamza said: "The amount of uranium Iraq already has, conservatively estimated in a German intelligence report at 10 tons of natural uranium and 1.3 tons of low-enriched uranium, is enough for three nuclear weapons.

"It's a relatively simple process once you have the plans and some experience operating one or two centrifuges."

Washington announced earlier this month the interception of a shipment to Iraq of highly refined aluminum tubes suitable for making centrifuges.

A Daily Express investigation today reveals how Saddam has used smuggled oil to pay for an illicit worldwide weapons network, breaking UN resolutions to import everything from helicopters to missile guidance systems.

Iraq is believed to have made at least �1.3billion in unaccounted funds from smuggling last year alone. Fleets of trucks cross the Jordanian and Turkish border every day, returning unchecked by UN monitors with some carrying banned arms.

Neighbour Syria has also reopened a disused pipeline in direct contravention of the UN embargo.

Israeli intelligence sources say the two former enemies have been working together on building up Saddam's Scud missile capability, possibly allowing him to strike Israel using weapons of mass destruction.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

This development could to be the hidden driver for a US/UK invasion of Iraqi.

If the US doesn't immediately and credibly refute this report, then one can have more confidence that all the war talk is really based on these missing nukes.

The above report suggests that Iraq would want the fissile material. This makes no sense since they would already have a large number of bombs.

Moreover, Saddam's seeming lack of military responses [Repositioning forces etc.] to US Special Forces and renewed bombing tends to confirm a sort of cavalier attitude...just the kind of attitude one would show IF one had a superior weapon.

The Hoople (09/17/02; 09:24:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 85285)
Carl H , PIZZ
Gold's strong showing in light of the intended bashing attempted was due to NEM and ABX announcing further reductions in hedging. That they both came out on a gold bashing day to announce was seen as signalling they are willing to support gold price. I think that was the real cross current going on today. ABX in particular was a curious development to say the least.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (09/17/02; 09:23:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 85284)
Don't be fooled by inflatable paper substitutes!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Gold Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

In this global marketplace, a single event on the far side of the world can suddenly and adversely affect the performance and credibility value of the commercial positions within your investment portfolio.

Gold has no employees, no overhead, and no financial statement to balance. It cannot go bankrupt. Gold is wealth itself. It is valued worldwide on the basis of its uniquely reliable form and function -- a steadfast financial commodity which is immune to the contagious collapses to which all financial paper is prone.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

USAGOLD - Centennial is here to help.
1-800-869-5115

Blackjack (09/17/02; 09:00:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 85283)
Economy weakening
Washington, Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. industrial production unexpectedly dropped in August, the first decrease this year, as companies made fewer autos, appliances and home electronics products.

Production at the nation's factories, mines and utilities fell 0.3 percent last month, after rising a revised 0.4 percent in July, according to the Federal Reserve. The last time production declined was in December.

An uneven recovery is leading companies to be cautious in rebuilding inventories. Jabil Circuit Inc., a maker of electronic products for brand name companies, is still firing workers and closing factories because of a slump in orders. Such steps may keep the growth slow, economists said.

``The U.S. economy is losing momentum,'' said John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte. ``Businesses are finding out that there just isn't any forward momentum in orders, and that means the economy may be sloshing around for some time.''
______________
What is helping PMs are the fundamentals. Economy is weakening.
Dollar has no reason to rise. Iraq is one day one shot news.
Oil will rebound because of low storage, OPEC will now not raise
production a lot if at all. Fundamentals are still there. Earnings are
weak, warnings coming.

Carl H (09/17/02; 08:54:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 85282)
Gold's reaction this morning
Perhaps gold's reaction this morning makes sense if one views it as an alternative to the dollar. Consider two cases:

1. The US get's control of the Iraqi oil. In this case, the price of oil in dollars will fall and that will help the dollar significantly to remain "strong".

2. The US does not get control of the Iraqi oil. In this case, the prie of oil will probably remain high in dollars. This makes the dollar weaker and hence make real money (gold) more attractive.

Thoughts?

sector (09/17/02; 08:48:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 85281)
Iraqi War Still on Target
Saddam's Missive to the UN is but a delaying tactic
...and the markets seem to be getting that idea as oil hasn't fallen but a buck and gold is headed back up towards $318-$320.

The real battle ground will be in the Senate when the Gulf War Debate II happens. Republicans hold the key to the resolution vote which might actually fail.

Would Bush go ahead with the invasion anyway?...Yep. THAT would start the REAL entertainment!

+++++++++++

The hedge closures seem to be saying gold is going up and they are to be completed in Q1 2003. That is the time interval when the LBMA silver volume craters. But a capitulation can happen at any time due to the failure of any of the many "Lines in the sand" [Dave Lewis' apt analogy]. JPM's $20...DOW 8200...POG $330...POO $40.

The golden "stars" are aligning very nicely indeed. Oh...yeah...then there's the 200 missing nukes from Ukraine.

Henri (09/17/02; 08:27:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 85280)
Fly on Wall at Royal Palaces...Saudi Arabia/Iraq (Pure Speculation)
Saudi Palace
...So you guys will allow us to price oil in Euros if we let you use our soil for bases to invade Iraq? You know if I make that announcement I will have to go into exile too.

Iraqi Palace
OK so if I tell the UN I will let in WMD inspectors, I can sell more oil again and the US will have no reason to have their fleet here? Gee, if the fleet leaves they would have a hard time getting it back in time to stop the Saudi revolution.

Socrates964 (09/17/02; 08:25:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 85279)
pizz et al.
Tend to agree. On the basis of this morning's action, I'd bet that the dollar is topping out against the Y, Euro, SFr.

As this process reverses it should put wind in gold's sails.

Gold v resilient (Jim Sinclair claims that his Chinese hedge funds have been propping gold up). I just wonder when they stop soaking up bullion and go for the end-game.

Btw, to go back to the China discussion -great comments from all concerned, but what is the consensus: Does the US have the geopolitical aim of stiffing China, or is there a US-Chinese elite that wants to use the latter's cheap labor and the former's military power to keep the rest of the world in economic servitude?

My own view is the latter scenario is more likely to occur regardless of what anyone in the US may wish.

Belgian (09/17/02; 08:23:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 85278)
@ Sir Brett Woods
30.000 tonnes of global CB's goldreserves at 10.000 $ per kilogram = 300 Billion $ for the whole stash. Total $-debts of 38 Trillion stands against the other total reserve : 30.000 tonnes of Gold.
300 Billion-Gold x 100 = 30 Trillion-Debt. D'accordo with the rounded figures given ?

8.000 tonnes of US goldreserves at 10.000$/kg = 80 Billion against 6 Trillion official US debt.
80 Billion-gold x 75 = 6 Trillion-debt

These approximate, multiples of *100 and 75* only indicate the absurd pricelevel of a known valuable official reserve (gold) against an estmated debt-total in a currency (us$) that is also considered as a reserve (75%) . Trying to compare cats with percepted cats.

Golden Bear : Don't underestimate the impact of the language that HH is using, repetitively IN EUROLAND (not in the US).

Pizz (9/17/02; 07:51:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 85277)
War Premium???
War tensions down
Gold Bashing on the news media
Gold down a buck and change
SM up 90 (pocket change)

Gold shorts have got to be saying, oh sh......... this morning.

When a market turns a deaf ear to news, it's ready to break hard in the opposite direction. I've seen this happen way too many times.

There are going to be a lot of professionals moving into gold. The market's a lot stronger than they gave it credit.
Heck, I thought we'd see at least 308 out of the shoot this morning.

Pizz

NEMO me impune lacessit (9/17/02; 07:40:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 85276)
Peculiar, tragic or just a symbol.
Was watching CNBC -- the president was on the air talking about the constitution and the importance of educating young people in that area. Suddenly the live transmittance was interrupted by a commercial advertising.........

NEMO

Operative (9/17/02; 07:38:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 85275)
One Year Ago Today
Watching the opening bell on CNBC this morning they noted that it was a year ago today that the NYSE opened following the September 11 2001 attack. Which brings the question, when, if ever, will Comex return to "normal" trading hours for the gold futures markets???

Chris Powell (9/17/02; 07:31:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 85274)
Newmont in timely announcement to close Normandy hedges
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1226
Newmont announces plan to close Normandy
hedges by February, and what a well-timed
announcement:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1226

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

CoBra(too) (9/17/02; 07:31:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 85273)
Barrick Targets Growth and announces Cutting Hedges by one third
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BA652558B%2D7FB0%2D47A6%2DB524%2D1FD2D3606BDD%7D&siteid=mktw
- that's a minimum of 4Million ounces!- As Newmont says its Normandy Hedge will be closed by February of 2003 - another up to 7 Moz. Hidden unwinding by diversion - neat concept.

These kind of news should normally give the POG a real boost. Am I getting paranoid, or was this kind'a news only to be released on an expected weak POG day - as Saddam's statements suggested. cb2

Brett Woods (9/17/02; 07:03:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 85272)
(No Subject)
In American billions your figures say CB bullion reserves at 8/1000 of world debt. Just a blink in the bucket. Seems there's no going back now. BTW, "a little early morning manipulation with your coffee sir?"

Golden Bear (9/17/02; 06:41:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 85271)
Belgian (msg#: 85270)
"...It is "this" message that we need to get across. That lone Irish wolf, Hugh Hendry, is certainly helping us (Gold) in a very substantial way ! Bravo and thanks, Sir Hugh !
But it remains a mystery why he is allowed to do (say) this
on CNBC-Europ ?..."

I am becoming convinced that the gold club/cabal, in their arrogance believe that one man's(wolf's) opinion can be forgotten quite readily by the masses, with the next intervention by cabal to knock down POG. It has been so successful time and time again over the past years that it has become ingrained in the minds of the masses, and their opinion of gold will not change until the bull trend is nearly over, as is always the case - always last to the party. Only when the majority of analysts/economists push gold will the masses get in, something that wont happen for a long while, as the economists, especially in the US are almost as poorly educated regarding real money as the masses...

Also, Hendry gets a lot of email, good for CNBC ratings...

Cheers.

Belgian (9/17/02; 05:48:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 85270)
@ Knallgold
The one and only reason that WGC wants to create *** gold-products *** (paper) is simply because available physical will remain scarce for ever and there is not enough gold for broad physical distribution. A very high price for Gold, would impact the jewelry industry in a rather negative way. Declining sales volume and margins ! Gold club would not be pleased with this.
And WGC-goldmines are producing the commodity for that global jewelry industry. Goldmines don't want to become *real money* mines !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It is "this" message that we need to get across. That lone Irish wolf, Hugh Hendry, is certainly helping us (Gold) in a very substantial way ! Bravo and thanks, Sir Hugh !
But it remains a mystery why he is allowed to do (say) this
on CNBC-Europ ? I missed him this morning and thanks Golden Bear for mentioning him.

It is also funny that in the past six months I saw Rhona O' Connell (WGC) twice on CNBC ? What's happening ?

What do 300 Billion dollars in CB-goldreserves *mean* in a multi Trillion world !!!!!! For instance, proportionate against 38 Trillion of world debt ! What is the house you (CB) own, worth, when your debt is a 100 times more than the house's value, sorry > price ! Why not increase the price of your house (goldreserves) to its real value and proportionate to your debt !? TG/FOA/A's message simplified.

*B*illions Gold against *T*rillions debt. B over T with multiples (100)! 315$ per ounce x 100 = 31.500 $ PER OUNCE to simply break even ! That's why Rhona can't predict such a price (just kidding folks).

Zenidea (9/17/02; 04:11:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 85269)
Swindle 85251
Black Blade and all. Just a quicky from a tone tuned know it all Au, Ag, Pd, Pt wanna be dreaming prospector.
When it comes to counterfeit/swindle a hood best knows the differences not by sight but rather by sound of what is and
what is not from that section of the metallic periodic table through the music of SUSTAIN and or its frequency behaviour and or rather the deduction thereof the cummulative effect of the aforesaid ,only by learned experience of its atomic composition. A more acurate test for sure is sound. Forgetting tech resourses of course.
ahhhh the 100 % silver shiners are generally hard to tell apart under polish to any eye if the weights are small under hand spontainiously from the more precious metals. except Au's :)magic colour to a gold fever recipient ; it dont lie by sight hehe. Clear colour.
Anyway I found nickel was the best reference to begin
learning about this clash ring sound sustain of the whites and an aptitude of perseverence helps. Itt'll come togeather ! :) hehe . LOVE YAZ !

Knallgold (9/17/02; 04:07:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 85268)
New Gold investments?
I remember when the WGC intended to mint a millennium coin,taking a min. of 1000t Gold off the market.This was a major reason I got into Gold in 1998.Well,I then believed innocently in "supply and demand" and Gold would take off.For the record,Barrick and Anglogold killed the project.

A new Gold coin fits with the term "new Gold investement",but the sentence "The creation of innovative gold-backed financial products " kills it definitively.

We don't need Another Gold-"backed" whatever its name might be.

So far,nothing new from the WGC.

Spartacus (9/17/02; 04:01:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 85267)
Oil Majors Set to Renew Direct Iraq Deals
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020917/energy_iraq_sales_1.html

OSAKA, Japan (Reuters)-- International oil majors are set to buy crude direct from Iraq for the first time in two years after Baghdad dropped its surcharge on U.N. supervised oil sales, an Iraqi oil official and Western company sources said on Tuesday.

Baghdad's bid to re-engage with top oil companies coincided with its announcement on Monday that it would permit the unconditional return of United Nations weapons inspectors.

There is speculation in oil industry circles that Iraq is renewing commercial ties with top oil companies as part of its campaign to prevent U.S.-led military action against Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.

"There is contact now, especially with European oil companies about crude oil supplies," a senior Iraqi oil official told Reuters.--

Black Blade (9/17/02; 03:22:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 85266)
TWO ADDITIONS TO THE INVESTMENT TEAM AT THE WORLD GOLD COUNCIL
http://www.gold.org/pr_archive/html/020902.html

Snippit:

The Executive Committee of the World Gold Council is pleased to announce the appointment of two new members of the senior management team. Stuart Thomas is Managing Director of its newly formed subsidiary, World Gold Trust Services LLC and based in the World Gold Council's New York office he will be responsible for developing a new gold investment product. Simon Village will be Managing Director Investment Services based in London with a similar remit to promote gold investment products globally on behalf of the World Gold Council.

The creation of innovative gold-backed financial products will increase interest in gold as an investment. This is one initiative of several that will reinvigorate the Council under the leadership of Chairman, Chris Thompson, and the recently appointed Jim Burton as the World Gold Council's Chief Executive Officer.

Black Blade: New gold investment products? Didn't WGC Chairman Thompson say something about new investment products to take 500 to 1000 tons a year off the market? Hmmm...

Black Blade (9/17/02; 03:15:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 85265)
World Gold Demand Trends - WGC Report
http://www.gold.org/value/markets/Gdt/Gdt40/GDT%2040%20complete.pdf

The 24 page report from the WGC at the link.

Belgian (9/17/02; 02:47:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 85264)
Rhona O' Connell - WGC on CNBC -Europ , this morning.
WGC : World Gold demands drop !-? POG contains a war-premium !? And WGC is NOT allowed to make POG predictions !?
Wouldn't it be nice to explain WHY or is it a too big effort to do so ?
WGC : There will be NO CB auctions � la UK anymore and the WA expires in 2004.
Lady Rhona, emphasized that the distribution logistics for Physical Gold to the public has gradually disappeared over the past 20 years in UK/US and that there are signs that physical gold becomes easier available,again, for those gold investors interested in holding bullion as their choice for storing their wealth.

Still wondering why this women was invited by the media-circus and what was the (un)importance of her message, if any ?

With the Dow futures up 180 points and stockprice rises of 6%...we witness ' again' the force / impact of the media-financial brotherhood. What a great show !

Golden Bear (9/17/02; 02:31:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 85263)
Rhona O'Connell...
She seemed quite nervous... discussed the usual, jewellery sales, coin and bar sales, and was asked whether CB's will continue auctioning..., her response was "ulikely", due to Washington agreement, and due to the fact that gold is part of reserves of the CB's, they don't want to erode its value?!?

Then what have they been doing the past 7 years... hmmm...

Black Blade (9/17/02; 02:12:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 85262)
Global Gold Production Falls
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/020917/16/32tsc.html

Snippit:

PERTH, Sept 17 Asia Pulse - Global gold production saw a significant reduction in first half of 2002, according to initial estimates from independent research company Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS). GFMS mining analyst Bruce Alway said a major cause of the slide in production was tumbling output in Indonesia. He also singled out the United States, where lower grades at the Nevada operations are thought to have left output considerably lower year on year. He said first half losses in the US are expected to be carried through to the full year total. "This is going to leave US output at levels last recorded a decade ago," Mr Alway said. GFMS now believes depleting reserves at mature operations in North America and a marked decline in new deposits scheduled to come on stream in the short term means current mine production levels may not be sustainable.

Black Blade: As I had pointed out in the most recent Afternoon Gold Report. The WGC report appears to be balanced out by the GFMS report. Hmmm...

Golden Bear (9/17/02; 02:09:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 85261)
Hugh Hendry on CNBC Europe
Just called the WGC quarterly report boring, that it has very little to do with the rally in Gold.

In response to viewer email, he stated that Gold is a currency, an alternative to fiat, unlike gold shares which he called investment assets.

Also stated that gold retains wealth, unlike fiat a la Argentina, and the promise of value that disappeared...

Discussed again the authorities not wanting gold to rise so as to give the masses a fright regarding the possible declining faith in fiat.

Nothing new for those here, but information to the masses...

Also Rhona O'connell of WGC on CNBC Europe in the next few minutes...

Black Blade (9/17/02; 02:05:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 85260)
World gold demand drops 14% in Q2
http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1179082-6078-0,00.html

Snippit:

LONDON -- World demand for gold fell 14% to 729 tonnes in the three months to June compared with the same period a year earlier, a leading industry survey reported on Tuesday. The World Gold Council said in its latest quarterly report that while price rises together with political and economic concerns encouraged retail investment purchases in some countries, these same factors had an adverse effect on other forms of demand.

Black Blade: Interesting. The year is not over yet. The summer months are slow anyway and buying should increase during the Asian festival season and the Western Holiday seasons. After all, the economy is recovering now because Saddam is allowing weapons inspections - just look at world markets this morning. Hmmm...

Spartacus (9/17/02; 02:03:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 85259)
Iraq
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/politics/story.jsp?story=333400

"Fortunes of war await Bush's circle after attacks on Iraq"
By Andrew Gumbel

---The last time the United States went to war against Iraq, Dick Cheney did very nicely from it. Having served as Defence Secretary, and basked in the reflected glory of the US military's surprisingly rapid advance across the desert sands to end the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait, he then managed to reap benefits of a very different kind once the war was over and he left government to become chief executive of Halliburton, the Texas-based oil services company.---

Belgian (9/17/02; 01:56:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 85258)
Socrates / Van Rip
Abundant cheap oil for China and the Chinese keep on working and delivering cheap goods as to underpin the PURCHASING POWER of our western currencies !!!!

*********

Cheap labor and its products + cheap incontournable resources, are enormously adding to our dis-proportionate prosperity. We cover this up with our "efficiancy" myth.

*********

Why must a standard bottle of coca cola rise tenfold in prize and CRUDE OIL remain at a modest pricelevel ? Yes Sir Socrates, this is indeed a simplification of what you name "huge imbalances...."

Oil / Gold / Interest rates (= universal indicators) indicate the purchasing power of confetti. All three indicators are maneuvered to extreme lows (POO in attempted progress) and are therefore falsifying the REAL purchasing power (not exchange rate) of the globe's reserve currency King $. This was possible with 1/ The infernal financial brotherhood 2/ Global enslavery 3/ Succesfull suppression / infantilization / de-responsibilization of the masses by media and amusement.

Today, one gets an inconvenient heavy amount of Gold for confetti. One can go out shopping with a very small confetti-purse and come home with a car full of quality products. Today, IR on confetti are so low as to confirm the certainty that it will surely hold its purchasing power for the next decade. Today, one can gamble, financially, at home with money back guarantee perceptions.

Are we realising how prosperous we are AT PRESENT ? NO WE DON'T !

But there is ONLY ONE nasty thing bothering us : POO > 30$ ! This really doesn't fit into the above factual rosy picture. Saddam Hoessein is the only important bully of today : BECAUSE HE WANTED 21 $ FOR HIS BARRILS IN 1990 AND HASN'T CHANGED HIS MIND AFTER IT STORMED IN HIS DESERT !

*******

It is NOT WMD that we fear (infantilisizing nonesense) BUT THE VERY EXISTENCE OF A MAD MAX (SH) WHO IS READY AND CAPABLE OF SETTING ALL ME OIL WELLS IN FLAMES !!!! As to tell us what crude oil (versus confetti) is really worth.

This message can be brought to the general public, for a long list of debatable reasons.

Saudi Arabia is NOT in the capacity anymore to guarantee oil-order. That's why the oil-crusade is on, up until the bitter end ! All the media, daily, noise is just for divertissement and sideguiding us from the above essential.

When was it you saw the last picture of burning Kuwaiti wells ? One year...two years or longer ????-!!!! Think about this one very deeply, fellow knights. The last word about 9/11 hasn't been said ! The truth will be shocking, as is every thruth.

Topaz (9/17/02; 01:47:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 85257)
more "Black Wednesday" refs.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/euro/story/0,11306,792804,00.html
eom

Spartacus (9/17/02; 01:42:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 85256)
Mr. Greenspan
http://www.dailyreckoning.com

CAREER CRIMINAL
by Bill Bonner

--Coming right to the point, we've come to believe that Mr. Greenspan's fame and fortune seem to vary inversely with the price of gold. -- :)

Topaz (9/17/02; 01:37:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 85255)
The Euro, parity....... or parody.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/euro/story/0%2C11306%2C616467%2C00.html
Today marks the Tenth Anniversary of the decoupling from the ERM of the Pound Sterling.
Despite continual assertions that the Exchange Rate Mechanism (a Europe-wide rate fixing precursor to the current Euro) would be maintained, the Chancellor of the Exchequer regretably announced, the decoupling of the Pound and an immediate 2% increase in interest rates...which quickly moved to 5% and resulted in a marked currency devaluation.
This action was seen as the beginning of the end for the ERM which finally succumbed in 1993. (see link)

The beautiful Dulcinea or Aldonza pig/whore...time will tell.

Black Blade (9/17/02; 01:32:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 85254)
Record day In Store?
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp

Asian and Euro markets are going stratospheric tonight on the news that Iraq has given in to UN demands. US market futures are extreme levels and it appears that Wall Street will go ballistic at the open. However, bond holders will get whip-sawed badly as most have recently got into bonds and outta stocks (oops!). The USD index is flying higher against all the world's toilet currencies as expected. Petroleum is falling hard and that should take the pressure off of OPEC this Thursday in Osaka, Japan. It was expected that OPEC would perhaps increase production for the expected war. Now that the markets are cheering and that many actually naively believe there will be no problem or war. It should be expected that petroleum supply will tighten now. Precious metals fell flat on the news, although gold rebounded off the lows as now there is more focus on unwinding of gold producer hedges, weak corporate earnings, lower supply and mine output. Meanwhile look at those grain prices rocket higher. New reports show that the drought is actually worse in the US and Australia than had been expected. Also, stored grain drawdowns are greater than thought. It should get very "interesting" as the year progresses.

- Black Blade

Black Blade (9/17/02; 01:19:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 85253)
Asian and Euro Markets Rock and Roll
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

The Asia markets rocketed higher on news that Iraq will allow weapons inspectors to return. Euro markets look to follow in Asian footsteps. Although we have been down this road before, there are enough gullible investors at major institutions to push the markets higher. Trading should push US markets higher as well because there will likely be thin trading conditions all week due to Yom Kippur. That will make it very easy to influence the markets on light volume. Of course energy stocks should collapse on the news of "all clear" in Iraq. Should be "fun" and very "entertaining".

- Black Blade

Black Blade (9/17/02; 00:34:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 85252)
U.S. NATURAL GAS SUPPLY LOOKS ROBUST AHEAD OF WINTER
http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/N?art=C2002091600259u1100&SA=Latest%20News

Snippit:

Sep 16, 2002 (Gas Processors Report/PBI Media via COMTEX) -- The late-summer natural gas storage level was healthy, perhaps at record levels, which was expected to insure against winter price spikes, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported. Demand for the upcoming winter was expected to outpace last year's by 12% because this season was projected to be normal as opposed to last winter, which was unseasonably warm. As a result, the average price of the 2002-2003 winter was expected to be around 26 cents/mcf higher than last winter's average price. Demand for the full year of 2002 was projected to increase by 3.3% over last year's levels and that 2003 demand will jump another 3.6% mostly on a push from non-utility demand and a recovering economy, EIA said. Demand from all sectors except one was expected to rise. There was no growth expected from the electric utility sector as electric power plants were still in the process of transference to independent power producers from utilities due to deregulation. While demand was moving up, production was dropping, EIA said. Dry natural gas production in the U.S. was expected to fall by around 1.7% in 2002 versus the 2001 growth rate of 2.4% because lower natural gas prices have reduced production and resource development incentives, it reported. However, the trend was to reverse itself next year when production rebounds by 3.2% on higher demand and lower inventories.

Black Blade: We will see. Hopefully they are right about sufficient supply, but if they are wrong and it turns out to be a cold one this winter, we will know who to blame. The EIA data has been in question since they took over from the AGA. Fortunately we can thank the economic recession for averting a sure disaster and the expected "economic recovery" can only draw hard on supply. Somehow I do not think we have to worry about the "economic recovery". Obviously the market doesn't buy it either as NG prices remain well over the historical average price.

Black Blade (9/17/02; 00:08:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 85251)
Silver swindle! -- Hey Rich, This Article is Almost Funny!
http://www.mips1.net/mggold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256C370007B6BD?OpenDocument

Snippit:

NEW YORK -- Earlier this month it came to my attention that hallmarked Sterling silver jewellery (925 fineness) being hawked at major US retail outlets and even prominent jewellers is probably little better than stainless steel. Newsletter publisher Bob Chapman ran a simple magnetic test on Sterling products in Texas earlier this month and reported that nearly everything clung to his magnet for dear life. Sterling silver doesn't do that. He reported the fraud to the managements of the stores who promised to take action, but were still selling counterfeit stuff days later. Evidently the stores think this is not a problem or their communication is really that bad. They're going to get an expensive surprise.

Black Blade: Yep, the "Magnetic Silver" controversy has now popped up on miningweb. It should get "entertaining" if it does result in some legal action or a lot of ticked off consumers> Hey, maybe "Consumers reports" or David Horowitz will pick up on this. Hmmm...

ViewYesterday's Discussion.

Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.

P.O. Box 460009
Denver, Colorado 80246-0009

1-800-869-5115 (US)
00-800-8720-8720 (EU)

303-399-6759 (Fax)

admin@usagold.com

Office Hours
6:00am - 5:00pm
(U.S. Mountain Time)
Monday - Friday

American Numismatic Association
Member since 1975

Industry Council for Tangible Assets

USAGOLD Centennial Precious Metals is a BBB Accredited Business. Click for the BBB Business Review of this Gold, Silver & Platinum Dealers in Denver CO

Zero Complaints

Wednesday February 8
website support: sitemaster@usagold.com
Site Map - Privacy- Disclaimer
The USAGOLD logo and stylized gold coin pile are trademarks of Michael J. Kosares.
© 1997-2012 Michael J. Kosares / USAGOLD All Rights Reserved