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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 10/17/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Blackjack (10/17/02; 23:51:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 87681)
Ericsson loss twice that expected
Correction

Blackjack (10/17/02; 23:49:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 87680)
Ericsson loss DOUBLES!
Stockholm, Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Ericsson AB, the world's biggest maker of cellular networks, unexpectedly said its third- quarter loss widened as sales slumped.

The net loss swelled to 5.6 billion kronor ($596 million), or 0.41 krona a share, from 4.3 billion kronor, or 0.37 krona a share, a year earlier, the company said in a release on Hugin. Analysts polled by SME Direkt expected a 2.54 billion-krona loss.
_____________
No recovery here.



Black Blade (10/17/02; 23:42:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 87679)
Will consumers play Grinch?
http://money.cnn.com/2002/10/16/technology/techinvestor/hellweg/index.htm

Consumer spending has helped keep the economy afloat. But it may not save the holiday season.

Snippit:

I think Christmas 2002 will be a very tough season for technology companies and retailers that depend on strong holiday sales. Companies that rely on the Christmas sales season to boost their yearly revenues may face a bleak season, indeed. Why? Because consumer confidence and spending -- the twin pillars that have held the economy steady and tamed the current downturn -- are starting to crack. And unfortunately, business spending isn't doing much to pick up the slack.


Black Blade: Don't look for much improvement either. Retailers will drop prices dramatically as we approach Christmas just to move product. That will cut profits to the bone. With rising unemployment and the equities markets still in the dumpster it isn't likely that consumers will go on a spending spree anytime soon. Oh yeah, that west coast dock worker slowdown is still on and it will take a couple of months just to get back to normal – that is if the dock workers decide to not "work safe". Besides, they are unloading the perishables first then parts for manufacturing. Only later will retail products begin to be unloaded and delivered – probably too late for the holiday season. Happy Holidays!



Blackjack (10/17/02; 23:42:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 87678)
Pak helped N Korea develop nukes
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/10/18/international/asia/18KORE.html?ex=1035604800&en=1935a1bd2dae0acf&ei=5006&partner=ALTAVISTA1
WASHINGTON, Oct. 17 — American intelligence officials have concluded that Pakistan, a vital ally since last year's terrorist attacks, was a major supplier of critical equipment for North Korea's newly revealed clandestine nuclear weapons program, current and former senior American officials said today.
Advertisement


The equipment, which may include gas centrifuges used to create weapons-grade uranium, appears to have been part of a barter deal beginning in the late 1990's in which North Korea supplied Pakistan with missiles it could use to counter India's nuclear arsenal, the officials said.
_________________
Pak is a problem with growing support in country for al qaida.





Blackjack (10/17/02; 23:39:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 87677)
S Korea reports that N Korea tested Atomic Bomb
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/021018/168/2gup3.html
South Koreans in a subway car read newspapers reporting North Korea (news - web sites)'s nuclear test, in Seoul, South Korea (news - web sites), Friday, Oct. 18, 2002. The headline reads: 'North Korea did nuclear test between July and August in this year.' (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)

Black Blade (10/17/02; 23:31:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 87676)
J.P Morgan's Troubles Run Deep
http://www.thestreet.com/markets/matthewgoldstein/10048051.html

Snippit:

It was no secret that J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM:NYSE) was going to post dreadful third-quarter earnings, and the nation's second-largest bank didn't disappoint. Profits plunged 91% from a year earlier, leaving the bank with a scant $40 million in net income, or earnings of a penny, as the bank incurred more business-loan losses and a $1.1 billion decline in trading revenue.

Black Blade: Interesting article that cuts into JP Morgan Chase's operations. This ship is slowly slipping beneath the waves.



Black Blade (10/17/02; 23:23:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 87675)
U.S. Economy: Housing Won't Be an Engine for Growth Next Year
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APa2jcxTCVS5TLiBF

Snippit:

Washington, Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. applications to buy homes fell last week to the lowest since April and home builders say residential construction won't provide much of a boost for the economy's recovery next year. ``Don't look to housing to be a growth engine,'' said David Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders. ``We're moving along pretty much sideways.'' A Mortgage Bankers Association of America index of purchase applications declined 3 percent last week, the third straight decrease, to the lowest level in six months. And figures from the National Association of Home Builders for October showed declining expectations for sales six months from now. Housing construction, which accounts for about 4.5 percent of gross domestic product, is already contributing less to the economy. Consumer confidence has fallen to a 10-month low and the economy has lost 1.6 million jobs since the recession started last year. And with homeownership close to an all-time high, there's little pent-up demand.

Black Blade: Bingo! Increase in building and declining sales. Uh huh. The devil in the details.



Black Blade (10/17/02; 23:18:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 87674)
U.S. Sept. Housing Starts Rise to 1.843 Million Pace
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APa61ixPyVS5TLiBT

Snippit:

Washington, Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. home construction rose in September to the highest level in 16 years as low mortgage rates led to more work on single-family housing, government figures showed. Builders broke ground on new homes at an annual pace of 1.843 million units last month, the highest since June 1986, the Commerce Department said. That was up 13.3 percent from August's revised 1.627 million pace. Construction of single-family dwellings surged 18.2 percent to 1.477 million, the highest in almost 24 years. Multifamily starts fell.

Black Blade: This bubble grows and now interest rates are rising again as investment in bonds fall. We might even see a growing glut of homes on the market and a resultant fall in prices leaving a few million people with overpriced homes and hefty mortgages to pay off. Should get "interesting".



Black Blade (10/17/02; 23:12:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 87673)
Jobless claims jump
http://money.cnn.com/2002/10/17/news/economy/jobless/index.htm

New weekly claims for unemployment benefits back above 400,000 as labor market struggles.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - New weekly claims for jobless benefits in the United States rose last week, the government said Thursday, as the labor market struggled to recover from heavy job cuts last year. The Labor Department said the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose to 411,000 in the week ended Oct. 12 from a revised 389,000 the prior week. Economists, on average, expected 398,000 new claims, according to Briefing.com.


Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" grows.



Black Blade (10/17/02; 22:30:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 87672)
SPIN CYCLE – Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Snippit:

How do you make a bad situation look better? The remedy is called spin. Actual events are recast and retold and appear to the general public in a different light. The sudden rise in stock prices that began last week at key support levels was the result of heavy buying by Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch. The initial upsurge was attributed to a technical bounce from an oversold market condition. In reality it looked more like intervention. I've already written about this in last Friday's WrapUp and on Monday. I call it the "rope a dope," where market intervention is used to lure unsuspecting investors back into the market. John Crudele, writing in the New York Post, attributed the markets machinations to televised wrestling. "What's the difference between professional wrestling and the stock market? Everyone knows wrestling is fixed. With Wall Street you only suspect it."

Black Blade: I am usually hard pressed to say that the markets or particular markets are rigged or that there is some grand conspiracy. But I will admit that the market action in the last two weeks should raise some eyebrows. I never have seen stock markets act like they have over the last few days. At the open the markets (DJIA, Nasdaq, and S&P 500) pop right up to a certain level and stay there until the close. That's right – no volatility – no spikes – no dips – nothing! Just a nice tidy tight trading range. Volume has been high as well, but the volume is not evenly spread and it is all in large trading blocks from one company to another and just enough to keep the set level on each index almost flat. Something is just not kosher here. Whatever is happening it certainly is not happening due to individual investors suddenly rushing to get back into the market – it's just too damn orderly and not like one would expect in a free trading equities market with offer/counter offer bidding the price up or down. This is one of the most bizarre trading patterns I have ever seen. In fact CNBC anchors Pisani and LaRoch made the same comments today. With the November elections on the political horizon this begs the question: could this be the work of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets? Of course the "spin cycle" to justify the positive market action on such questionable earnings raises a few eyebrows as well when one digs into these earnings statements. Hmmm… These are "Interesting Times".

BTW, I see that US market index futures are soaring again tonight. Yeah, I know - after the bell Microsoft beat the street with some questionable earnings and Sun Micro lost less than expected. But there are still a few questions that any reporter worth his salt should be asking. Just don't expect those questions to be asked by reporters at CNBC or CNNfn. Hmmm...

Blackjack (10/17/02; 22:06:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 87671)
China tidbit
Beijing, Oct 17, 2002 (XFN via COMTEX) -- The Beijing Caishikou Department Store bought three kg of gold through the Shanghai Gold Exchange on Wednesday, marking the first trade at the exchange since trial operations began last November, the Beijing Morning Post said.

The exchange will be formally opened on October 30.

The exchange has designated 10 companies to provide the standard gold bullion to be used in trading and has signed co-operative agreements with the firms, as well as with selected insurance and transportation agents.

The exchange now has 108 member companies, including 14 financial institutions. Individuals will not be allowed to trade gold when the Shanghai Gold Exchange is officially launched.

The member companies account for 75 percent of the country's total gold output, with their gold refining capacity making up 90 percent of the total, it added.

The gold exchange is expected make China's gold industry more market-oriented, and loosen the central government's monopoly in the sector.

The People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, currently controls all gold distribution in China, buying refined gold from miners, allocating some for China's reserves and selling the remainder to industrial and commercial processors.

China, the fourth-largest gold producer in the world, recorded gold output of 93.74 tons in the first seven months, down 2.89 percent year-on-year, largely due to the closure of many small mines.


Black Blade (10/17/02; 21:57:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 87670)
As stocks rally, Dow 4,000 is imminent
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B4DB7BBC8%2DCA0F%2D49A3%2DB5E9%2DAF20964AD5EA%7D&siteid=mktw
Elliott Wave's Prechter, Hochberg see impending drop

Snippit:

The U.S. stock market's dramatic October rally is about to dupe the majority of investors, say the folks who forecast the market decline in January 2000. If Robert R. Prechter Jr.'s Elliott Wave International forecasts are correct, as I am confident they will be, the current rebound in stock indexes will go down in history as comic relief on a battered fiscal stage.


Black Blade: Interesting article though I am not big on wave theory or technical analysis. From a fundamental analysis perspective the conclusions are eerily similar though. It is interesting that the TA and FA people are on the same page.




kasperjack (10/17/02; 21:19:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 87669)
Sorry Folks
I'm Gone
Some guy can call me a fool and a spammer. A poster I never addressed or referenced on here;not even once and I get a warning from the management. Well good bye folks I'm gone.

Golden Bear (10/17/02; 21:10:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 87668)
Is Dubya starting to smell a little fishy?
http://www.bankindex.com/read.asp?ID=1326
"...A SOBERING EXPOSURE OF THE BUSH-BIN LADEN FAMILY CONNECTION
The Bush-Bin Laden Family Connection

by Victor Thorn

When I wrote about the Carlyle Group having an inordinate amount of access to the current administration which is used for their own personal gain, some people may not have realized the general importance of this situation. So, to begin showing you how closely the Carlyle Group is interconnected with both the Bush and bin Laden families, let's start at the beginning.

In the early 1990's, the Carlyle Group (out of the kindness of their heart) chose to take a struggling businessman under their wing and give him a position in their company. But this wasn't just any old job. No, they put this individual on the Board of one of their subsidiaries – CaterAir. That would be commendable in most instances, except that this employee wouldn't be categorized as one of the most brilliant men in the world. But that didn't matter because the person in question who landed this gravy job was none other than George W. Bush. Yup, to keep him occupied until he could be "selected" to his future job as Governor of Texas, the Carlyle Group lent a helping hand.

But lo and behold, one hand quickly washed the other, for after George W. became Governor, he appointed several people to a Board that controlled the money invested by the Texas Teacher's Pension Fund – a total of $100 million! So, this board decides to invest this PUBLIC MONEY with a certain group. Guess who it was. Yup, you're right – the Carlyle Group! In addition, another entity – the University of Texas Board of Regents – invested millions of dollars, too. And guess which way it went. I'll be damned, but it also went to the Carlyle Group. So, let's see – Texas, Bush, money, and the Carlyle Group. A mere coincidence? Who knows? But I'm reminded of that old saying – follow the money. A case in point is Wayne Berman, a Washington consultant and George W. Bush fundraiser who got kickbacks of $900,000+ after Connecticut State Treasurer Paul Silvester pushed tens of millions of dollars of state pension funds to the investment portfolio of a certain group. And which group would that be? Yup, Carlyle!

Are things starting to smell a little fishy?..."
----------------------------------------------------------
GB: Bush and Cheney are doing everything they possibly can to block releasing the documents on the Energy summit (Enron dealings), and on the 911 independent investigations... Hmmm.





Golden Bear (10/17/02; 20:55:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 87667)
Will the House of Morgan Fall? Enemy Within the Gates?
http://www.bankindex.com/read.asp?ID=1339
Snippit:

"...Will the House of Morgan Fall?
Not if you go by their past hurdles and obstructions they've encountered while digging their fangs into America's culture and institutions, and sucking out the sweet wine of freedom from America's soul...

...Really friends, it's much, much more sinister than you realize. Morgan and its allies has a death grip on all sectors of our life and literally calls the shots for our government and institutions through the Council on Foreign Relations. I'm certain Mr. Paul is aware of this, but just by peeling back one layer of slime at a time - starting with the Fed - maybe we can get our country back by showing the world that the American people still run this country, and not the bankers and their globalist equivalents around the world.
"

-----------------------------------
GB: Hmmm, interesting reading indeed!



turkey hunter (10/17/02; 20:10:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 87666)
Kasperjack's msg #87645
http://www.forbes.com/business/newswire/2002/09/27/rtr734655.html
Here is the link to article.

sector (10/17/02; 20:09:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 87665)
@pizz "Who will finance the airlines this time next year?"
Hub carriers will be in defacto default...
...buy walking on their aircraft leases.

American Airlines will really be the American airline, just as Aeroflot is the Russian airline.

JPM won't make it -- their derivatives don't work in a falling market, rising interest rate regime. They bet on the wrong horse. The horse made of paper.

IF the Prez is foolish enough to invade Iraq, the wealthy Saudis will fund acquisition of finished nuclear weaponry for Al-Qaeda. It will be smuggled over our "secure" borders.

All question regarding the future must include factors for that eventuality.


steady (10/17/02; 19:02:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 87664)
rember this one
Gold: the judge, arbitrator,and executioner of all fiat money!

silvester (10/17/02; 18:35:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 87663)
Bound Spirit message #87658
Bound Spirit, I agree with your thoughts and enjoyed your post. So much of our lives have become more complex than necessary. Honesty and Sincerity are not complex, nor is physical gold. Simple is good.

Pizz (10/17/02; 17:45:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 87662)
A Few Fundamental Economic Observations Being Ignored
Who will finance and run our major airlines this time next year. Federal Express just might have problem with the term Fed Air, so maybe the Fed will just call it Resolution Trust II Air.

Who will finance and run the networks of WCOM and Global Crossing. The Fed can call this one Fed Com and probably get away with it.

Nearly everyone already thinks Fred and Fannie are government entities, so a change in ownership there will slip buy most, maybe just add the numberal II after the names.

Oh, I almost forgot, the derivative king, but they already kind of own part of the Fed, and they can probably just slip away in a 'pooling of interests' merger. But then again they may just want to show it as a purchase with 50 trillion or so of negative goodwill then just monetize it. That would make it easier to hyperinflate our way out of the Socail Security liabilty and all the pension plans they'll have to absorb from the bulk of the S & P 500. They can probably call that one Resolution Security Corp.

Yes, I think I can see why stocks have bottomed and gold is a lousy investment - we're addressing all the above problems---SHEESH.

We've gone from our heads buried in the sand with our tails hanging out, to buried up to our necks in front of a stampede, but just facing the wrong direction. Oh well, if you can't see it coming. . . . but then again what's that rumbling I hear?

Short term fluctuations and media spin aren't going to reverse the long term trend.

Pizz



GoldnSilver2002 (10/17/02; 17:44:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 87661)
I hope the sniper isnt al queda
Well i know feel really good about unloading my silver standard.Whew 20 percent loss in 2 months,even the guys in the dow are doing better than me.Things are slowly getting beyond comprehension and the ability to predict with any accuracy.Here let me give you an example of how crazy the world is becoming.In washington there are some 10,000 plus govt agents being paid how much to track one guy,who has shut down the city with one gun.Ill be accussed of having a wild imagination again but,what happens if al queda put a sniper in every major city and then shut down the ports with a nuclear threat?How high will the dow go,36,000 plus?

Im sorry people call me full of fantasy but i see a nation in collapse.When it goes it will take the whole worlds financial system with it as most hold u.s dollars.Just think if you own any stocks in new york on the day a nuke goes off,how will you get your money?You see like it or not,black blade may be the only one who is ready for what may come.Just a thought guys,but if i can think of it,they can.Own physical or dont own gold at all.Paper is a gamble against odds no one knows.

Blackjack (10/17/02; 17:44:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 87660)
Tenet warns US
Tenet: Al-Qaida Set to Strike Again

By John J. Lumpkin
Associated Press Writer
Thursday, October 17, 2002; 6:36 PM

WASHINGTON –– New al-Qaida strikes may be imminent on U.S. soil or overseas, CIA Director George J. Tenet warned Thursday as he defended his agency's counterterrorism efforts to lawmakers.

"You must make the assumption that al-Qaida is in an execution phase and intends to strike us both here and overseas," Tenet said, noting recent attacks in Kuwait, Indonesia and off Yemen. "That's unambiguous as far as I'm concerned."

Tenet's comments came during an extraordinary session as he joined FBI Director Robert S. Mueller III and National Security Agency chief Lt. Gen. Michael Hayden to answer sharp questions from the House and Senate intelligence committees, in the culmination of five weeks of public hearings on missed warnings of the Sept. 11 attacks.

The hearing also led to new revelations regarding al-Qaida's planning for the Sept. 11 attacks. In a written report declassified Thursday, Tenet suggests that Osama bin Laden himself may have suggested the hijackers use large planes to strike the World Trade Center.

He also said al-Qaida will try to attack again.

"Based on what we have learned about the 11 September, an attempt to conduct another attack on U.S. soil is certain," he said.

Tenet said he was meeting later Thursday with Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge. He said Ridge has already taken defensive measures "in specific areas where the intelligence was most credible and in sectors where we're most worried about." He didn't identify them.

But he said the current situation is comparable with what existed in the United States in the summer before the Sept. 11 attacks.

"You must make the analytical judgment that the possibility exists that people are planning to attack you inside the United States – multiple simultaneous attacks. We are the enemy, we're the people they want to hurt inside this country," he said.

The nationwide alert level remains code yellow – "significant risk of terrorist attacks" – because officials do not have specific details on where and when an attack may occur, Homeland Security spokesman Gordon Johndroe said. Yellow is the third-highest of five threat levels.
___________________
They seem to think al-qaida is mounting a global offensive.

Voyager (10/17/02; 16:43:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 87659)
Quotes I have saved for days like this to remind me of why I own gold.


Gold is the ultimate standard of value, resolutely standing fast in a fickle world. For six millennia of human history gold has almost always been the most-highly-sought-after universal store of wealth. The seemingly magical yellow metal is the de facto standard by which every other form of money and wealth in history has been measured. Gold is indestructible and omnipotent in the monetary world, having withstood countless bloodthirsty assaults by governments throughout history vainly attempting to render impotent its iron-fisted discipline on currency growth. Empires and currencies rise and fall, but gold stands strong, monolithic and proud, casting an enormous shadow over all of monetary history.

In a true free-market environment, the bane of the existence of freedom-hating socialists everywhere, gold forms the foundational monetary cornerstone of the economy and it helps prevent governments from engaging in giant tax-and-spend schemes, socialism in a nutshell. Socialists seek to brazenly steal the fruits of the labors of the productive, take a sizeable cut for themselves like parasites, and then give the remainder to the unproductive in order to subsidize their dysfunctional unproductive behavior to foster political dependency. The whole twisted idea is the worst kind of demented lunacy, and gold can deliver it a fatal blow.

Gold is the mortal enemy of all who want to control the free markets and bend them to their own dark wills, whether they were Communist central planners in the old Soviet Union or today's Alan Greenspan and his secretive politburo of private bankers in the US shamelessly centrally planning short-term American interest rates.

Gold, if a nation respects it and bases its currency on the Ancient Metal of Kings, kills socialism and socialist interventions in free markets dead. If a government can't print fiat paper money and is forced to use a solid gold-backed currency, it can't spend more than it earns, annihilating socialism as its nefarious roots are choked off. It is a beautiful thing!
Gold's virtue, though, is seen by today's planners and collectivists as its irremediable vice for the simple reason that it cannot be created at will by the State and its bankers, as a means of allowing them and their favored clientele to take ownership of what they have not first earned.

"This is not the time to hesitate or the time to be without firm convictions or beliefs. If you don't have them, get into cash and be content with what you have left. For those of you that believe what the rise in gold and fall in the financial markets are telling you, it is time to take advantage of those who are subsidizing the price of gold and silver. It is the time of mice and men. It is a time when those who have convictions must stand by their beliefs because those who have none will eventually follow."

Gold is the ultimate truth in the financial plane.

Gold is money when money fails.

Gold is freedom.


Bound Spirit (10/17/02; 16:41:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 87658)
Aristotle
You know, scientists admire the beauty, function and form of a virus no less than they admire the fresh cells of a human zygote. After reading your HOF description of that complex gold derivative machination, I couldn't help but sense a faint tinge of your scientific admiration of that financial virus. On its surface, its ok to apprciate its function and form. You've got to give credit to those financial engineers for their amoral expansion and application of our man made rules governing paper wealth. Amazing creativity!

I've become convinced (along with other advocates of real money) that complexity and creativity belong in other human endeavors and not within our ancient need to make barter more efficient. Overriding the angst we all must feel when financial criminals rob the financially naïve of their life savings (there will always be criminals) is the fact that our current monetary systems provides them the mechanism to do so. Like sleazy defense attorneys wining acquittals on technicalities, our financial institutions jump up and cheer when they exceed quarterly earnings. The fact that they are contributing to the failure of our democratic experiment, not to mention the shredding of western culture, completely alludes them. Their activities can not be rationalized as the equivalent of Ann Rand's perfectly behaving self-interested objectivists. Our self-interests can not intrude upon our responsibilities to civilization. To the extent it does is the extent to which we re-enter the jungle – a place where no sin exists and nihilism reigns.

Aristotle, the philosopher, knew that a necessary pre-requisite to living a good human life was that we first insure that others have freedom, liberty, and education and understand their responsibilities as citizens. I ask you, what aspects of those millennia old notions (which prevailed and became the foundation of our democracy) are alive and well today? Who amongst us is screaming from the roof tops that our democratic freedoms are more important than wealth creation – more important than our government's ability to fund social programs or whatever– indeed more important than anything other than discovering God's purpose for our lives?

The best I can tell the only people I hear screaming this message are, you guessed it, the small ostracized minority consisting of the believers in honest money and those on the loosing end of the war to preserve western culture. Are liberals in that camp? Not a chance. And if your a conservative who believes in the fed, your a walking, talking contradiction. There is no way to promote conservatisms social goals within a system of oppressive debt and dishonest taxation through devaluation.

You want to know my definition of a gold bug. It's the people who believe that gold needs to be our money because it promotes "domestic tranquility" where fiat is time consuming and promotes complexity, resource distortions and ultimate suffering. If you share that belief, then whether you invest in physical, mining stock or gold bonds is just a trivial sidebar and nothing to get emotional over. It pales in comparison to the larger questions in life. I must confess that macroeconomics and current world events personally fascinate me, but the better angels of my nature say that I could care less if gold appreciates in fiat terms. I just want the current fiat system to collapse – and hopefully, but doubtfully, without massive death and destruction. If paper wealth and affluence brings me into contact with guys the likes of Andrew Fastow, I want no part of it.

You know what I like about this discussion forum, its posters like Black Blade who share with me the daily evidence that the fiat world is coming apart and that the dream that honest money and domestic tranquility may one day return. I never get the sense from his (and many other posts) that he's only here because gold will make him rich, its more like we're just keeping our eyes open and waiting for Puplava's "perfect storm". In the mean time BB just faithfully reports the relevant current events – and its better and more relevant than any other place I know. Furthermore, it sounds honest and sincere – just like gold.

Gold, the money God gave us – believe it.




NEMO me impune lacessit (10/17/02; 15:44:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 87657)
Nibelung
Thank You for the info about "Curbs".

Is this link perhaps the broader picture You would like
people to see and understand.

http://www.rense.com/general24/getout.htm

Bets regards
NEMO

Mr Gresham (10/17/02; 15:44:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 87656)
Thoughts from the Loan 'Ranger (after 3 apps in 3 hrs.)
People believe in this (fiat) system. That is its main surviving capital, even as its mathematical stability slides away. Perhaps more as cornered animals than as willing, witting participants, but their labors are at its service everyday, and a small but thinning portion of the "skim" goes to prop up those structures.

Beyond the paper curtain is another world, of more solid values, which they have never let themselves visit.

Until they do so, by decision or desperation, they are "playable" by those who can arbitrage both sides of the curtain. The average person's labors (and savings) can be lumped up together and used, at least with small but sufficient leverage, against us who've stepped beyond the curtained economy. Quiet now -- you ARE the ultimate bummer to someone's fiat fantasies, and your thoughts still unwelcome to nearly all.

And the "players" will not be called to reckoning until a sufficient combination of pubic defection and numerical insolvency brings their curtain down.

I say "cornered animals" because (from the mortgage guys I talked to today) it seems that they are alert to even small advantages and small threats dealt them by the "markets", but they are unaware of any larger stable system to hold it up against for comparison. (Which might both steady -- and alarm -- them, as it does us.) So they scurry momentarily out of harm's way, but without direction.

And me, who takes too much too literally, I flinch every time I had to say the word "Mort-gage" -- what is it in the Old French, "death" "grip?" Something like that. Serfdom?

(Warning: Flagrantly flailing metaphor ahead!) Yes, we're all in the economic wagon together, which seems to be careening down the mountain road with no brakes aboard. Us PGAs seem to be the ones nearest the edge, looking over the side, seeing how close we're coming to gravity's rough justice, plus seeing the wheels wobbling wildly as we jolt over speed bumps and rocks with abandon.

Whether we'll be able to tumble to safety when the wheels come off, or go down with the rest, remains to be seen.

Ah, USAGold, my mental speed bump in chaotic times. Thanks!



Blurrmoon (10/17/02; 15:29:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 87655)
I wonder if bacteria would be stupid enough to accept "paper gold" instead of the real thing?
The following quotation is from a speech given in Washington D.C. in 1948 by Congressman Howard Buffett from Nebraska, father of the most successful investor of all times, Warren Buffett. The address was entitled "Human Freedom Rests on Gold Redeemable Money":



"Our finances will never be brought into order until Congress is compelled to do so. Making our money redeemable in gold will create this compulsion. […] The paper money disease has been a pleasant habit thus far and will not be dropped voluntarily any more than a dope user will without a struggle give up narcotics. But in each case the end of the road is not a desirable prospect.[…] I can find no evidence to support a hope that our fiat paper money venture will fare better ultimately than such experiments in other lands. Because of our economic strength the paper money disease here may take many years to run its course. […] But we can be approaching the critical stage. When that day arrives our political leaders will probably find that foreign war and ruthless regimentation is the cunning alternative to domestic strive. That was the way out for the paper-money economy of Hitler and others. […] I warn you that politicians of both parties will oppose the restoration of gold. […] Also those elements here and abroad who are getting rich from the continued American inflation will oppose a return to sound money. […] But, unless you are willing to surrender your children and your country to galloping inflation, war and slavery, then this cause demands your support. For if human liberty is to survive in America, we must win the battle to restore honest money. […] There is no more important challenge facing U.S. than this issue – the restoration of your freedom to secure gold in exchange for the fruits of your labors."



contrarian (10/17/02; 14:58:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 87654)
RobotGuy--She Really Irks Me!
RobotGuy--

I know where you're coming from...I've been forced to listed to idiotic business "financial planner" on ABC's Good Morning America saying 3 months ago..."stay in stocks"..."there has never been a bear market that has lasted as long as this one" (so that means it's supposed to end soon). When asked what's best place by investors, one of whom lost a million, she says "stocks". She doesn't even mention bonds! or anything else, for that matter.

And then nincompoop Arthur Levitt, when asked by deer-caught-in-the-headlights investors where's the best place for their money, he says "stocks".

Conclusion: media is in business to sell you newsprint and get your eyeballs--they will only broadcast what you want to hear...and won't stray from the message because it's too painful and won't increase their sales or ratings.

They only fill in with information that reflects ideas you may have heard a little about, but want to hear more about...hence you get superficial coverage. They play it safe. Anything totally offtrack, like we're heading for a major depression, will be deemed unprintable and unprofitable.

But wake up! Life sometimes hits you with curveballs, and things can change. The way it currently is, isn't the way it's always going to be.

Plus, future forecasters are always off the mark. Why? Because they only extrapolate from CURRENT trends. Anything new, they totally miss. And new trends can suddently appear out of nowhere (like 9/11)

Truly, mainstream media can be viewed as a contrarian indicator!

some food for thought...don't believe what you read (unless you hear it here!)


Belgian (10/17/02; 14:50:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 87653)
The great paperization !?
Would like to recommend Aristo's posting #87615 for HOF nomination. Thanks Ari.

There is "nothing" wrong with Kasperjack/R.Powell, informing us about what lives in that gigantic, expanding, paper circus. On the contrary. I'm glad to remain informed here, about the creativity/diversity on the paper-gold-products. Thank you gentlemen.

But my sympathy goes to Ari for his angerly outburst of honesty in his practical Gold-defense. It's a pity, but surely forgivable, that you felt a bit "uneasy", dearest Ari, the more I know you should feel very comfortable with your yellow, precious, tangible. But, yes it is some kind of an art to enjoy it, constantly. Onwards....


STABILITY and GROWTH...

That is the hart of the matter for the nearby future. Not only in the Euroland's context of a "pact", but in the whole economical/geo-political world as such.
Both the $ and € are in desperate need for growth, without causing in-stability on the monetary front/battlefield.
Alas, an impossible task as will be witnessed, soon.

Stock and bond markets are "covered" at full hypervalue, with the estimated 130 TRILLION $ (notonional value) of derivatives. Un-pre-ce-dented ! This is a suicidal box for the whole financial system as such...if and when artificial move-induction, should be halted for God knows what reason/event.

What is wrong with advocating or even humbly advizing to leave all paper maneuvers for what they are and suggesting to join the ranks of the holders of "real" things ?
This, not only counts for physical gold but for paying/buying any share of one's choice and participate as an owner of that company. But this seems to have come oldfashioned and radically outdated. That's why the financial empire will collapse. Digit-megalomany instead of genuine participation through thick and thin.

In the Guinnes book of records, some financial pages will soon be added. Extremes all over the place and proliferating.
The strive for "Stability" architected by the euro-planners is presented as an obstacle and must take the blaim for lacking growth. This tension is mounting as the dollar block is on the euro's offensive. Soon Germany will be pictured as a banana republic and W. Duisenberg as a clumsy shoolboy. I'm referring to the IR pressures. If a relance of growth can't be realized without very stupid measures...the consequences are already known. Structural reforms in the dollar-management and euro economy are both impossible. Present, relative, Stability will be sacrificed for another attempt to start another variety of growth.

It is against this background that I do see valuable, real, tangibles in possession as a wise option. It certainly does not exclude succesfull paper-gambling ventures by the more smart amongst us. But any paperproduct on Gold, at this stage, should not be suggested, as a positive, by real gold advocates who wish to see more individuals accumulating physical. I don't see any sort of selfishness in suc an attitude. Striving for stability and growth is the same as wishing peace and prosperity for all.

With sincere hope of not having offended here anyone, I wish you all a very good night from Euroland.


Black Blade (10/17/02; 14:49:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 87652)
Re: nibelung

I think that you answered your own question. Everyone knows what the radical Islamists want and why they are killing innocents. Therefore they do not need to advertise or make political statements (nor do they really care). If the attack was by some other group (even the Indonesian military) then they would want to take credit to drive their point home and influence the public to pressure their home governments for policy change through fear. That's the whole point of terrorism. There is no percentage in creating a "big show" and letting someone else take all the credit. Politically and strategically it has no benefit.

- Black Blade


Black Blade (10/17/02; 14:37:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 87651)
Debt-ridden Argentina may tap mining giants
http://afr.com/companies/2002/10/18/FFX4Z1IKD7D.html


Snippit:

Argentina, starved of hard currency, is considering tapping one of Australia's biggest overseas investments to bolster its reserves. The $US1.2 billion ($2.2 billion) Alumbrera gold and copper mine, owned 50 per cent by MIM Holdings and 25 per cent by BHP Billiton, would be affected by a proposal to change the treatment of miners' export earnings. Alarmed at the prospect, the company that owns and operates the mine, Minera Alumbrera, whose other 25 per cent is owned by Rio Tinto, has been fighting the idea and is considering legal action against the state.

But the Central Bank of the Republic of Argentina is proposing to oblige all miners to bring a portion of their export income onshore into Argentina. The money would be channeled through the central bank, boosting the bank's much-diminished foreign exchange reserves. The central bank would then have power over how the mining companies deal with their money - including the power to limit remittances overseas. The central bank is also proposing a similar move against oil companies, and these present a fatter and easier target than the miners.


Black Blade: This is "interesting" news. Barrick has a large operation in Argentina as well. I can imagine that there will be a lot less investment in Argentina is this proposal passes. I wonder if the corporate accounts will be held in Argentine pesos? Hmmm...



kramrich (10/17/02; 14:37:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 87650)
nibelung
It really is a very simple question that you are unable to answer. In the future please back up your statements rather than shooting from the hip. I was only curious what you were thinking. Back to gold now.

Black Blade (10/17/02; 14:27:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 87649)
After Hours "Entertainment"


Sun Microsystems just beat the street and the after hours market is rallying on the news. The company will lose only 2 cents a share instead of 4 cents. Of course this is a "pro forma" number and the actual losses are greater but who am I to throw cold water on the "good news". Also, they will "only" lay off 11% of the workforce. Wall Street's cheering crowds could not be happier.

Microsoft also beat their numbers by about 50 cents a share (pro forma of course). They also are known to engage in "synthetic leasing" and other questionable accounting shenanigans. They also have not taken up the cause of expensing options either, which would slash earnings significantly. Still, the after market is happy and we could see more irrational exuberance tomorrow.

Also, CNBC market exchange reporters Pisani and LaRoch let the cat out of the bag by mentioning how the rallies charge higher to a set level and trade in a very tight range with virtually no volatility to the market close. One only needs to look at the intraday charts and it is quite apparent that there are no selling or buying spikes. Of course when only the major institutional players are in the market they can set the price because no one else is interested. They are trying to play up the noise like carnival barkers or infomercial touts (or CNBC anchors for that matter) to stir up excitement to draw in investors. They just ain't buying it.

- Black Blade


Waverider (10/17/02; 14:25:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 87648)
DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
On the list and not to be missed....

kasperjack (10/17/02; 14:21:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 87647)
Off The Cuff Comments On The Gold Price, Underwater Gold Hedges,The Cabal Et Al
Chambers Bros...TIME...Has come Today...
zeno kasperjack there is no difference thats me folks...
zeno451 (53/M)
10/17/02 04:04 pm


Good question. I've been thinking along a similiar line myself. Last March
or April Nem released a report wherein it stated that its post 03 hedges were
placed at an average price of $305. The Australian dollar was in the range of
52 cents back then. It is 54 cents today. Ergo you would add about 3.9%
onto the $305 average hedge price number. That equals $11 or thereabouts.
Get rid of the fractions. Ergo Nems average hedge price would be in the
neighbourhood of $316. You understand we are NOT discounting the effect
of any post 03 hedge close outs on their average hedge hedged price. I am
also simplifying my calculations by assuming the entire post 03 hedge book
is composed of entirely Australian production. I am also assuming Nem
derived its $305 hedge book average price number via converting their
Australian hedge committments into American dollars. I AM ONLY
TRYING TO GIVE YOU MY APPROXIMATION AND
INTERPRETATION OF NEMS HEDGE BOOK AVERAGE PRICE
COMMITTMENT. With all these assumptions incorporated I would
ordinarily link in Alarons chart for the futures price of gold.(i can't do it
because Ya No Hoo will erase my post if I venture over to the required link)
Thereupon I would calculate an approximate estimation of Nems average
underwater price for its post 03 hedge book. Ergo a variated x minus $316. I
would then throw in Lassondes committment to close out underwater hedges
if it is economically feasible and then make make own guesstamite for the
gold price point wherein Nem might step up to the plate and buy the
requisite physical gold to close out all or a portion of his underwater hedge
book...... Suffice it to say Big Mouth Bobby Godsell and the other gold
miner yard birds sitting on the fence are wondering what Lassonde is up to
at the moment. They may also be wondering if the cabal is giving Barrick
the opportunity to take some pressure off of their own hedge book
committments. The cabal too is wondering if their gold press repression is
going to initiate a massive and unstoppable close down of the gold miners
hedge book. it is an interesting day isn't it?

Blurrmoon (10/17/02; 13:52:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 87646)
consider this if you dare....
http://members.save-net.com/mamo@save-net.com/gf/gold_sea.htm
Snip: Gold ores worldwide in 1974 averaged 0.15 ounces troy per ton. By 1986 that average had dropped to 0.05 ounces per ton. As the concentration of these minable continental ores continues to diminish, the seas have increasingly become the object of exploration and research into gold reserves. Significant quantities of gold have been mined from ocean beach placers, and mid-oceanic ridges have yielded rich gold ore samples, but the greatest accessible reserve is the ocean itself. Seawater contains vast quantities of dissolved gold, perhaps as much as 10 trillion dollars (US) worth, though in dilute concentrations. Recent evidence suggests that much of the earths continental gold deposits have biological origins. Certain bacteria are believed to have been involved in the precipitation of gold out of dilute hydrothermal solutions. A possible avenue for commercially viable gold recovery from seawater might involve such a bacterium, or a specifically engineered microbe.

Blurrmoon - There are actually many OTHER discernable theories on how to remove gold from the seas (my favorite: combinational chemistry to devise Au specific ligand), who knows some may be practised today ?(e.g. large Saudi desalination plants) especially if gold did (or has?) move to 10,000/oz. Maybe thats where some of the 'invisible' gold is coming from? Kinda neat how life seems to intertwine with Au even at the micro level.

kasperjack (10/17/02; 12:56:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 87645)
Real Estate Bubble In Jeopardy?
Have wasted too much time today to serve up the link as well

Mortgage Rates Turning Upward in a Hurry
Quicken Loans Offers Advice for Consumers
Thursday October 17, 2:24 pm ET

LIVONIA, Mich.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 17,
2002--Reversing the
unprecedented march toward historic lows, this week
U.S. mortgage rates spiked
higher. Mortgage rates have risen almost a full
quarter of a percent in the last
week.
***********
Is this a sign of a trend reversal. If so look out....

kasperjack (10/17/02; 12:48:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 87644)
Is PPT Pumping The Market For Fear Of The consumer credit Bubble Bursting?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/021017/economy_fed_moskow_3.html
Does Desperation Explain the panic to boost the stock prices?
Reuters Market News
Consumer outlays to fall if stocks stay
low-Moskow
Thursday October 17, 2:16 pm ET

(Updates to reflect speech actually delivered, adds comment in paragraph
nine)

INDIANAPOLIS, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Chicago Federal Reserve President
Michael
Moskow said on Thursday that the economic climate is uncertain, and if
stock
prices remain at lower levels, U.S. consumers may rein in their spending.

"If lower stock prices are
maintained, the dent in
households' balance sheets
would also be a negative
factor for future household
spending," Moskow said in a
speech to a forum of the
Mid-States Federal Credit
Union.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/021017/economy_fed_moskow_3.html

Nibelung (10/17/02; 12:47:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 87643)
Kramrich
My position is that they have made numerous statements, which I reject, that have been extensively published, publicized and discussed in the mass media.

The argument is not whether this is true or not. My argument was: Why feign ignorance?

I see now I was wrong to make assumptions about your information intake. I believe you. You have no knowledge of the statements they have made which have been widely covered in the mass media.



kasperjack (10/17/02; 12:22:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 87642)
Bushwackers
Real collegial place this message board. lol I'm too busy pursuing my interests in gold to deal with the picyuane pot shots of some bushwhacker who jumped out of the weeds. I'll put my last months posts and contributions to this message board up against the bushwhackers posts over the same period anytime. The bushwacker planned and picked his target. The Standard Bank post was not spam. I was not offering investment advice. I have been pursuing the ramifications of the new wgc investment initiative in numerous posts over the last month. I saw an example of a parallel initiative. I presented it without adding any additional comment in the body of the post. I still stand by my statements. This product appears to be removing real physical gold from the market place. It is a gold backed bond. That doesn't mean the money invested in it has to exactly remove the same value of gold from the market place. Sitting around in a collegial atmosphere and patting yourselves on the back telling everyone for months on end how smart you are may allow you to think that your statements have some kind of authority behind them but that means absolutely nothing to me... Recently I noticed Vronsky mysteriously raised his standards. If management over here don't like my attitude they should remove my posting priviliges. What a collosal waste of time...

miner49er (10/17/02; 12:20:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 87641)
Mr. Gresham @ Ari's post...
Hi Mr. G -

Just an observation on your comment re: Ari, and your sentence: "Your example (net 100 oz contract short, 200 physical oz long) cannot be the larger scheme, because this would run the physical price, if multiplied by the number and magnitude of players we suppose to be out there."

If I may speak for Aristotle, I'm sure he certainly realizes that if EVERYONE who worked this angle indeed purchased 100% physical with the proceeds of each short sale, the price would run away very quickly. I believe what he wants to demonstrate by way of a simple example is a template for how this stuff works.

Assuredly, during the last decade when everyone was flying into equities, the concurrent view that Gold-is-dead caused, as we know, mountains of gold to be unloaded. Therefore, people who applied any kind of variation of Ari's theme, and knew the value of gold, also were scooping it up... and they knew all too well how to siphon things out of a market without gunning the price.

So while some accumulated some gold, and others accumulated more gold, still others did who-knows-what with their short sale proceeds. It doesn't matter... What matters is that in aggregate, the combined market savvy of all these diverse market agents played off each other in such a way that their anticipated goals were obtained -- a downward bias on the gold price as reckoned in dollar contracts -- and for that season physically delivered gold for about the same price. Reference the archives here for numerous different templates of operation, each catering to the needs of a different group of participants (remember the institutional par-seekers vs. the speculator mind frame discussions, for instance).

It is unlikely that anyone in his right mind who was trying to obtain large amounts of gold would ever use something like Comex to make their intentions known. Where you mention "Gold-in-hand is well understood by those who know they are about to crash a system" is absolutely right, and that is why they don't want to crash the system. It does no one any good. The only one's who might crash the system would be those with a hostile bent -- who already own lots of gold anyway. Moreover, it would never have the impact desired, since the system, while wounded, would not die... All the limits, increased margins, cash settlements, etc., and all done at what Ari refers to as "fantasy land pricing," would mitigate the damage.

Surely individual players would be ruined if they were on the wrong end, but the system itself would likely not die from a frontal assault...

It will likely die from lack of interest... As the contracts become less credible hedges for the parity-seekers, and the prospect of a paper moonshot slowly sinks into the cardboard sea (gosh... that dates me...[actually Dad listened to that stuff]), long interest not only wanes, it gets dumped with a fury...

I realize you have raised several points here, but I've only time to touch on the one which seems to be at the crux of the whole lot... where does all the physical come from (and incidental to it: does it REALLY matter...?) The bigger players on the paper markets seem to be playing like it doesn't. Volume is not really so much the key as actual physical turnover, and who knows what that is... especially as you mention OTC and we contemplate the myriad private transactions among giants. All this becomes pure speculation. Nonetheless we must build our views based on what we do see, combined with our subjective analysis of the way things work.

Ari points out what FOA spent quite a bit of time explaining: how many contracts are held by people who CANNOT POSSIBLY take delivery? If intent to deliver is announced, then it is as Aristotle states: "the victory was theirs, but their hands were too small to hold it." There are also the large volume institutionals who don't want delivery, and aren't really aiming for an exploding gold price. They just want something stable to hang their hats on. They will always cash out, too. All they care about is introducing balance and stability to their portfolios.

So we have to ask the question, who in THESE markets is really trying to buy market-altering volumes of physical gold??? Apparently, no one. So the shorts, who have long figured this out, have assessed the risks involved and have come down on the side that it's relatively safe to keep selling what they don't have, because they know they'll never have to make good on it...

Perhaps in the end, it will be like a lion chasing a herd of antelope. Someone (the slowest) will get taken out. But the rest of the herd is betting it won't be them. Besides, there are lots more of them than lions anyway...

Bottom line for all us thick minds who try to blaze a goat path through the fog... Get physical, and get it now...

So, anyway... good to correspond with you again, my friend... Hope I understood what your concerns were... Maybe Mr. Aristotle will weigh in again later...

cheers,
miner




kramrich (10/17/02; 12:09:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 87640)
@ Nibelung
I knew you could not answer that simple question. I'm not impressed with your ability to argue your position and I will have to agree with Black Blade. For radical Islamic
"believers" the point is simply to kill non-believers.

kasperjack (10/17/02; 11:49:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 87639)
Post Bail Bombing Political Uncertainty Sweeping The Gold Mining Industry
http://afr.com/companies/2002/10/18/FFX4Z1IKD7D.html

Debt-ridden Argentina
may tap mining giants
Oct 18
Peter Hartcher in BuenosAires
Argentina, starved of hard currency, is
considering tapping
one of Australia's biggest overseas
investments to bolster
its reserves.
The $US1.2 billion ($2.2 billion)
Alumbrera gold and copper
mine, owned 50 per cent by MIM
Holdings and 25 per cent
by BHP Billiton, would be affected by a
proposal to change
the treatment of miners' export earnings.
Alarmed at the prospect, the company
that owns and
operates the mine, Minera Alumbrera,
whose other 25 per
cent is owned by Rio Tinto, has been
fighting the idea and
is considering legal action against the
state.
It also has enlisted the Australian
Government, which has
been lobbying the Argentinian
Government.
At the moment, the country's mining law
guarantees miners
full discretion in handling their export
earnings. They are
free to keep 100 per cent of their
earnings offshore.
But the Central Bank of the Republic of
Argentina is
proposing to oblige all miners to bring a
portion of their
export income onshore into Argentina.
The money would be channelled through
the central bank,
boosting the bank's much-diminished
foreign exchange
reserves.
The cental bank would then have power
over how the
mining companies deal with their money
- including the
power to limit remittances overseas.
************
I wonder if the recent price action of gold is connected to the Indonesain and Argentinian developments. Gold production is already declining 3% per year. A Potentially further 3 or 4% decline in in Indonesia plus this dispute that is sweeping the Argentinian industry is bad news for the cabal. JPM and the Comex. The Orwellian doublespeak is amazing....

Mr Gresham (10/17/02; 10:43:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 87638)
Oh, one more thought, then I go
Ari: I think the gist of what you've presented, which we go back and forth about here, because this is a forum about money-in-use and gold, is a scheme by which someone is making money, NOT from the gold market, but from the money which other people have entrusted to him. A little bit at a time (interest) when necessary, all at once (fraud) when possible. Really, the mechanism behind all the paper banking and derivatives and further abstractions away from Real things.

Since Real things can't be made, except by Real people doing Real work, the only way to get Real things away from them without a Real exchange, is to fool them somehow.

(Anything beyond a small rate of interest, reflecting the shifting seasons of life's energies and enjoyment of savings, probably reflects some degree of fooling somewhere in the system.)

The variations on fooling people are perhaps endless, but do tend to recycle the same old games as they pass out of recent memory. Perhaps that is what a monetary education is: a struggle to remember, and to help others remember. Help shorten the cycle of fraud games.

At certain intervals, when the games have run amuck, gold then returns to balance the accounts. Gold, itself unproductive, is in that time advantageous over other holdings. From that point of balance, productive efforts advantageous above gold may be re-launched. Those who live upon the above-mentioned schemes will resist that time of re-balancing for as long as they can, and then have to re-join the workforce ("900 JPM 'bankers' laid off") with the rest of us.


RobotGuy (10/17/02; 10:43:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 87637)
She really urks me!
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=djia&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comp=&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&type=2&time=20&style=320&startdate=&enddate=&size=2&lf2=0&lf3=0
I have been a dedicated watcher of a popular Canadian news station for years. I feel they present their news in a very studious fashion with most viewpoints taken into consideration.
There is however one aspect of this particular news channel that forces me to change channels every time that portion is aired. The market analyst of this news station has been seen several times over the course of the last year or two smiling at the camera and saying "this is definitly the bottom and we're in for a full market recovery from here on in!". It drives me insane each time she makes her appearance, and I have dreams of tying her to a chair and forcing her to listen over and over to her bullsh#t until she breaks down and admits she doesn't have a clue what she's talking about, and that she is merely a market cheerleader puppet. What a way to destroy a perfectly good news broadcast. I suppose she'll be on tonight trying to convince all Canadians that this time it's 'really the bottom', and we had better start investing our life savings in this or that.
I personally feel that 5000 is the bottom for DOW, and the Canadian markets are typically a mirror of the U.S. I am not a market analyst, and I claim no true insight or knowledge of the market's direction, but it seems obvious to me through world activity and 'big picture' evaluation that we are definitely not at the bottom of the failing trend.

Just a little open forum venting folks, thank-you for your patience.

Cheers!

RobotGuy.

Gandalf the White (10/17/02; 10:30:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 87636)
ANOTHER "Second" !!! <;-)
Aristotle (10/17/02; 02:29:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 87615)
Cavan Man (10/17/02; 07:46:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 87624)
HOF Nomination
USAG POST 87615
If these are still being made and taken by the proprietors, I would like to request seconds for this excellent piece by Aristotle.
+++
YES, IF the HOF doors and lights are still operational, (it has been a long time since a NEW posting has been Nominated), THEN:
I Second the post # 87615 by Aristotle for the HOF.
<;-)


Pizz (10/17/02; 10:30:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 87635)
The new method of selling into strength
When you can't get enough of a spread to dump blocks of stock thru a lack of buyers during normal trading hours, just how in the heck can you get enough of an increase in price to be able to get out of a position.

It seems to me that you could run up the S&P futures overnite in the thin Asia and European markets, then dump your blocks on the opening gaps as the hedgers sell the S&P and buy stocks. Too many sellers and not enough lemmings out there to fleece anymore. Big boys feeding off each other.

Heard one fund manager yesterday touting stocks with a bit more desperation in his voice than he would have probably liked. When asked if he was committing more money now to back his statements, he said that he had been buying all the way down, and didn't have too much (any?) more to commit.

Yea, he was desparate, along with all the other bottom pickers, but it's not their money anyway. . . .

As these guys jump from one trampoline to another, very soon they may find one covered with nothing but tissue paper. . .

Hmm, gold shorts just can't seem to shake the trees hard enough to be able to cover in volume. . . . wonder what dead rabbit (cat) they'll try to pull out of the hat tomorrow.

Speaking of gold and short, have to be thinking the supply of the good stuff is also gettin short, but still cheap by yearly, monthly, and maybe even weekly standards.

Pizz

Mr Gresham (10/17/02; 10:22:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 87634)
Ari: Well thought-out exposition
which leads me to thoughts of extrapolating the larger gold-suppression (and profit from shorting) scheme. Your example (net 100 oz contract short, 200 physical oz long) cannot be the larger scheme, because this would run the physical price, if multiplied by the number and magnitude of players we suppose to be out there.

Nearly all of our scenarios of POG suppression involve leverage of many times (up to 100x?) volume on the paper markets as is transacted on the physical.

So, you & partners can only carry out something like this with OPM (other peoples' money) if you remain a small portion of the overall scheme. This -- in my repeated scenarios -- is possibly achieved by the JPM, GS, & other execs stocking up their personal physical holdings (think Marty Armstrong's closet here), while preparing to jettison the institutions they have "served" so well. Institution short, individual long -- a fine arbitrage with no ultimate downside to the individual.

This view is consistent with the past decades' of corporate execs looting the shareholders' interests to line their own pockets, a strategy even more easy to achieve in the near-invisible world of gold dealings and indecipherable labyrinth of derivatives.

So, there is a split (not in the StanBank example, because that is really only borrowing money to buy gold, something most of us could do on our credit cards if we wanted to, but in the actual gold derivatives "markets") between paper positions taken by the larger proxy institutions and the smaller (but entirely adequate to a future of "large" living) individual stash.

(Incidentally, something I have not tracked over these years are the Comex volumes, for it would seem to me to require ever larger unbacked paper positions to accomplish price suppression, and I haven't heard of that happening. Of course, the larger OTC market instead is blamed for this, while Comex is maintained as its frequently-restocked window dressing, and, absent a large shift of those OTC longs to a desire for physical, we'll never have a statistical confirmation of how such a volume is keeping POG down.)

Also, one thing required in the larger scheme is the regular source of physical to satisfy that end of the schemers' plan. I doubt that Kuwait's or Ecuador's (?) 5 or 30 (?) tons when they came along irregularly, or even Britain's 250 (?), were adequate to this task (in a world of ?2500? tons annual production) -- again, mere window dressing.

A much larger source was required (and I don't think it was miners' forward sales either). Gold-in-hand is well understood by those who know they are about to crash a system.

As I read Ferdinand Lips' account of the Gold Pool days and US Treasury sales, which took US holdings down from, what, (darn! can't find the book now) was it 23,000 tons after WWII? at least 16000 I'm sure, down to 8,000 when Nixon defaulted. All that, during times of PROSPERITY and MINOR, MINOR trade imbalance!!! (Mostly investment outflows, as I recall.) To maintain a dollar that was under LITTLE serious threat from outside competition!

How much more likely now that they'd be willing to -- or forced to -- part with the rest of it (all into the Right hands, mind you) in a much more imbalanced currency world.

The radicalness of the adjustment, to complete the process begun in the 50s-60s, and halted by who-knows-what miracle of currency salvation (oil? threats?), for a 30-year grace period, while monetary madness has compounded 10-fold, must be a swift and jarring one.

The large picture is a mystery worthy of minds beyond my own; I only dip in now and then to see if any clues have appeared to put flesh on the skinny bones of my suspicions. Thanks, Ari, for refreshing us on some of the mechanisms -- and attitudes -- that lurk in those shadows!

That's all for today; gotta go slay a mortgage or two...

goldenboy (10/17/02; 09:39:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 87633)
Comex Gold Expiry and Price Weakness
Can anyone confirm that option contracts are about to expire? If so, I will add some physical to my RRSP.

WAC (Wide Awake Club) (10/17/02; 09:38:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 87632)
@Black Blade - Boeing Profits
http://www.airbus.com
Just take a look at the homepage (orders,deliveries etc). The EURO base is certainly expanding.

Nibelung (10/17/02; 09:29:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 87631)
kramerich
It is preposterous for an intelligent person, which I assume you are, to feign ignorance with respect to their complaints.

kramrich (10/17/02; 09:18:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 87630)
@ Nibelung
You said that the "the radical islamists have repeatedly and consistently stated their revenge-purpose and the cause they wish
to bring to attention." Could you shed some light on what is their "revenge-purpose" and "cause".

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (10/17/02; 09:14:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 87629)
International Ops, Small Order Desk, and Standard. We have the service you need.
http://www.usagold.com/announcement/SmallOrderDesk.html

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