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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 8/17/2000 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Peter Asher (8/17/2000; 23:59:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 35121) Regarding Free Trade At this stage of planetary economics "Free" trade may be an unattainable ideal. First of all, access to working capital is not in "Free trade" mode. Then you have the altered values of the production of people of different nations due to currency valuation: And finally there is a corollary of "To big to fail", which is -- Big enough to Dump!Governments, institutions and the Super -rich have the power to inhibit free trade. Trade laws and Tarriffs can offset this or exacerbate it, but "free-trade" per se' is not possible in a fiat money credit economy. SHIFTY (8/17/2000; 23:20:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 35120) Point 17 "A lesson from free- trade Holland." Point 17A lesson from free- trade Holland.Holland enjoys the blessings of free trade, or something very closely akin to it, and Holland has by far the largest foreign trade in the world pre head of population. In 1907 her imports came to L38 11s.2d. per head of population, as compared with only L12 13s 3d. in this country. Her wealthy foreign traders in Amsterdam and Rotterdam may boast of Holland's magnificent foreign trade, but what about Dutch labor? At the recent International Free Trade Congress in London , Doctor Heringa, the secretary of the Dutch Free Trade Union , told his audience " Wages have also risen under free trade" and he gave figures of hourly wages paid for government work in Dutch money, which may be found on pages 170 and 171 of the report of the Free Trade Congress. The corresponding English figures per week of fifty hours are as follows:( $hifty: Again I am sorry I cant give you the chart)The Dutch consumer enjoys the blessing of free trade in the shape of cheap foreign goods, but the Dutch worker receives the curse of free trade in the shape of starvation wages. The maximum wage given by Doctor Heringa is the pittance of 17s. 6d. per week of fifty hours for bricklayers, whose work is very irregular owing to the severity of the Dutch winter, which stops building operations during several months.In Holland , as in other countries, free trade means underpaid labor.============================================================$hifty Journeyman (8/17/2000; 23:15:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 35119) The 102nd poing against free trade -- and the MAIN point against the 102 points against free trade @Shifty, ALLThe 102nd (possibly since no one seems to know any but #24) point against free trade is that it tends to make YOU (whether you are an individual or some imaginary secular or "national" group) dependent on those you get in the habit of trading with for whatever it is you trade with them for. For example, if you stop growing your own food in favor of cheaper imported food, you eventually find yourself at the mercy of continued trade with your habitual food producer if you wish to continue to eat. Don't worry, the MAIN U.S. export is food, so that's the position much of the rest of the world is in relative to this "country." Unless you produce your own food, though, you've become dependent on the other folks who peoduce it and the super-markets where you trade money for food.On the other hand, and because of such "dependancy" effects, as the saying goes, "When goods cross borders, troops don't."USA Corp. has discussed using what they call "the food weapon," that is cutting off food shipments to the men, women, and children in countries in dis-favor with the D.C. political cliques.O.K. That was the 102nd point against free trade.Now buried in the following, for you to dig out, is the main point in favor of free trade: Why limit those whose superior expertise you can gain from (because of division-of-labor "Law of Comparative Advantage" effects) -- AND why limit the advantages your trading partner gets in return from YOUR superior expertise in a different industry? If you do oppose free trade anyway, then why limit your opposition to free trade with foreign countries like China and Great Britain? Why should people in Ohio be allowed to trade freely with people in foreign states like Pennsylvania, let alone those wierd foreigners in California?If you can answer that question, you're well on your way to understanding many other things as well, grasshopper.Regards,Journeyman SHIFTY (8/17/2000; 22:23:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 35118) RossL 101 Points Against Free Trade (CORRECTION) rossL: you my friend and any other people that think free trade is wonderful need to look up a document at your nearest Federal Document Depository. The title is "101 points against free trade!" It is an old document , and I have a full copy around here someplace.I did find a few pages that did not copy very well and at .10 cents a page I kept them . Unfortunately I cant put my hands on the full text . However lets see....Point 24 Will Tariff Reform Damage Our Foreign Trade?Free traders often assert that tariff reform will " destroy" our foreign trade. Yet they can not give us the example of a single nation whose foreign trade has been destroyed by the introduction of protection. On the contrary , the foreign trade of our highly protected industrial competitors has increased much more rapidly than that of free trade Great Britain . This is clear from the following figures: ( sorry I cant include chart) 1880 to 1906 ================================================================I will try to put together a bit more from what I have and post it . However If anyone would like to look for it , all I can say is that it is from back around 1907 or 1908 from what I can recall. The few pages I have here in my hand have no other identification on them, sorry. If I can find my full text I will give you all the information you will need to get your own copy of .."101 Points against free trade" out of the Congressional Record from a time before America was sold to the highest bidder SHIFTY (8/17/2000; 22:20:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 35117) RossL 101 Points Against Free Trade rossL: you my friend and any other people that think free trade is wonderful need to look up a document at your nearest Federal Document Depository. The title is "101 points against free trade!" It is an old document , and I have a full copy around here someplace.I did find a few pages that did not copy very well and at .10 cents a page I kept them . Unfortunately I cant put my hands on the full text . However lets see....Point 24 Will Tariff Reform Damage Our Foreign Trade?Free traders often assert that tariff reform will " destroy" our foreign trade. Yet they can not give us the example of a single nation whose foreign trade has been destroyed by the introduction of protection. On the contrary , the foreign trade of our highly protected industrial competitors has increased much more rapidly than that of free trade Great . This is clear from the following figures: ( sorry I cant include chart) 1880 to 1906 ================================================================I will try to put together a bit more from what I have and post it . However If anyone would like to look for it , all I can say is that it is from back around 1907 or 1908 from what I can recall. The few pages I have here in my hand have no other identification on them, sorry. If I can find my full text I will give you all the information you will need to get your own copy of .."101 Points against free trade" out of the Congressional Record from a time before America was sold to the highest bidder RossL (8/17/2000; 22:15:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 35116) Goldfly Why is unilateral free trade not good? How long do you suppose one fascist country can hold up price supports against a large free country with no tariffs? ET (8/17/2000; 22:02:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 35115) Al Hey Al - thanks for the kind words. You wrote in part;"...but "anti war"??? Really? When has anyone been pro-war?<ohyea fascists ..smile>"See Al - we agree, eh? <g>However, I do remember the "Bomb Iraq - rally round the flag" stuff from a few years ago as being quite popular.I am in near total agreement with your view of things as they are today but I probably differ as to the cause. I believe the abandonment of sound money is at the heart of nearly all our problems. The politics of our day would not be near as important if the government lacked the ability to debase the money. Unfortunately that "sound money" politician hasn't made his way onto my ballot. I'll bet he isn't on your ballot either. <g>At any rate, I hope you give the Austrians a chance. In this country, they used to call their point of view "common sense". Goldfly (8/17/2000; 22:01:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 35114) Uh.... Constitutional.... Goldfly (8/17/2000; 21:59:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 35113) Free Trade and Pat B. Free trade is no good when it's unilateral.And on top of that we've exported our industries to the third world so they can compete with us.What's wrong with wanting to restore equilibrium? The life of our nation is being sucked dry.We've become so enamoured of our foreign slave labor, but it's going to come back and bite us in the butt. A service economy will not hack it. To be truly prosperous you have to PRODUCE something. Just shuffling paper between manicurists and lawn service workers won't do. (In my estimation, software is also a service.) When the crunch time comes, our country is going to be a bare skeleton without a muscle to stand up.Is Buchannan a Facist? Would he make himself dictator? I think not. But one thing I did get out of Al F's ( or whoever's) diatribe is something I've been thinking for a long time.... This country IS getting setup for a dictatorship. Chaos is just under the surface. And it will take a strongman to maintain order. I hope when it comes, we get a good one or die trying. (Yes, there can be good ones. It's tough to get and keep, power being what it is. But let's remember, democracy and "constitional republics" haven't panned-out all that well either....) I don't think either of the men being presented by the Republicrats have what it takes. I think Buchanan is getting a bum rap. But so what? The situation is spinning out of control anyway. Martial Law: Here we come.....gf Black Blade (8/17/2000; 21:51:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 35112) @SHIFTY MSG> 35071 Just caught your post on the NY article. It would appear that anyone with a perceived claim over some perceived injustice is looking for compensation. The lawyers aggravate the situation by promoting the "lottery mentality" in our society (at least in the USA). We seem to be no more than leeches sucking each other's blood. The Swiss have agreed to compensation with the Holocaust survivors fund, the Germans have finally come to an agreement also with businesses chipping in to the tune of $5 billion. Now some wild tale from a convict in a Greek jail spreads a rumor about Nazi gold, and of course the money grubbing maggots (lawyers) show up. Hell, I should get some of the proceeds from the BOE gold auctions, since my ancestors were kicked out of England! Though actually that was more of a benefit. We did get revenge though as my great-great, etc. ancestor Seth Warner was a Brigadier General with the Green Mountain boys and they kicked some royal a**. I should also get compensation from some people who caused an auto accident in town the other day. Granted, I wasn't involved, but I did suffer "By-stander Trauma". I had to witness the accident, so I should be compensated. General Tecumseh Sherman burned down one of my ancestor's homes in his march to the sea, so the US Government should pay me compensation. You see this is getting out of hand. There is a need for Tort reform. Only I don't think that we can trust our rulers to do that. They are mostly maggots (lawyers) themselves. RossL (8/17/2000; 21:33:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 35111) Pat B. If Pat B is 50% as much as a fascist as the Republi-Demo-cans, is he still a fascist? Pete (8/17/2000; 21:30:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 35110) The never ending saga My Dear HBM,I admire and commend you and Mrs. HBM for your frugality. I have been lurking and very seldom post since the inception of this great forum. I am a follower of ANOTHER and FOA and have on occasion had very informative banters with both, even on Kitco before they were treated, IMHO, badly by some Kitcoites(A small minority) and decided to leave. A loss for Kitco but a gain for USAGOLD.That being said, I also live frugally. I'm a few years older than you as I was brought up during the great depression and saw and experienced many disheartening things that good people went through during the bad times, although people were closer and cared for each other more so than today. The younger generation has no conception of what it feels like to go without, and I hope and pray that they never do. My father and mother scrimped and saved so that I could get an education that would make my life better than they experienced. Because of their concern for my well being, I have had a rewarding and comfortable life due to my parents as a professional engineer and owner of a heavy highway construction company. I have been retired for the past fifteen years and even though I can afford to live high off the hog, I don't and won't. My estate will go to my children as they have been a source of pride to me in their deportment and are deserving of it.Through many years of observation I have seen the slow deliberate deterioration of freedoms enacted by both republicans and democrats that, IMHO, there is no discernible difference betwixt them. Although I may seem idealistic, I have seen and experienced the bad and good in all manners of people personally and in business that at times made me ill; at times enforced my faith that there is hope for mankind.I fear that the present stand of our government represents and practices socialism and a form of tyranny that has slowly turned this great nation into something that is foreign to me since the inception of the new deal by FDR. Sort of like boil the frog slowly and he'll never know who ate him before it's too late.I may have creature comforts, which is important, but at the same time, I believe in God, that I have a soul, with the queasy feeling that I am not truly free when I see gun control laws that are abominable being foisted upon us with the intent to disarm us completely. Most do not realize that it would mean the loss of the last bastion of freedom from would be tyrannical rulers. I could go on and on, equal rights for some but not others; teaching and abetting homosexuality as an acceptable life style; a drug war that takes ones property away whether guilty or not without due process; taxation that makes one seem as if he were living under the thumb of a company store. There are many more I will not enumerate for the sake of brevity, even though I have ranted longer than usual and to spare you and others with redundancy.If our nation is to survive, we need to shed the yolk of a two party system that has gone awry and no longer represents the people but moneyed and self interest at the expense of the people; to go back to a constitutional form of government. I am an old man, and God willing, I will enjoy my family and grandchildren a few years longer. My concern is for what is in store for them as I feel my generation is responsible for the conditions that exist.Good luck to you and others and I pray that I'm wrong in my assessment.PetePS: Accumulate physical PM's slowly and within your lifestyle as insurance and hope you'll never have to use them. RossL (8/17/2000; 21:22:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 35109) Al F. http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm The short and sweet about Pat Buchanan: He believes in state intervention in all commercial matters. A 10% tariff on imports is not free trade. It is a prescription for plenty of unnamed government nanny-state fascisms. Dropping all tariffs unilaterally and using real money in trade is my idea of free trade. RossL (8/17/2000; 21:09:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 35108) Al F. You must have missed the part about "100 miles from a metropolitan area" ... Al Fulchino (8/17/2000; 20:46:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 35107) HBM Did I read that right? 75 bucks a month? 300 acres? Wow! TownCrier (8/17/2000; 20:44:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 35106) Greetings, Sir(?) Student...Page? Squire? http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/taylorparksintvw.html The Hall of Fame is an excellent starting point. As your time, patience, and curiosity allow, you will also want to look into the Gold Trail and the Gilded Opinion. I've provided a link to a recent Gilded opinion article that is a gem of an interview between J Taylor and Larry Parks. The pop quiz will be next week...and YOU get to ask all of the questions! Al Fulchino (8/17/2000; 20:42:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 35105) Hi-Hat, ET and Simply Me as well as those who have emailed First of all, compliments to those who took the time to read. Your time is valuable and I pondered not posting the articlem at all. HiHat: I wish you were not correct. And without open discussion you are surely correct. email me pleaseTo those who emailed me. Thanks for the suprise. Thanks for the time you took. When you write things like, "give me more information" I hear an open heart. Intellectuals don't understand your type or my type. And when you share part of your life with me, a complete stranger, I am humbled.Simply Me: Take the same article print it off and if you will indulge me a bit further, my good man, read it again at some time in the future. <this statement could easily sound condescending, but from experience and if you are anything like me, I think you will agree we don't always see things as they are on the first go around. To others who would never respond to an issue like this: It is likely you just are not into conflict. Let me tell you something, please bear with me. Life will never be without conflict fully. Avoid conflict at your own peril. Freedom has a price. And it is eternal vigilance, against that which has contempt for that in this country which is good. And there still is much that is good.ET:You have been here longer than myself and are a wonderful presence here. You are smart, as is Oro, you are well read, as is Oro...but "anti war"??? Really? When has anyone been pro-war?<oh yea fascists ..smile> And what if you and I and Oro are anti-war and we beleive in good things like maybe a gold standard? What if someone else disagrees with us? Do we tell them we don't believe in war, but only good things? Do we ask them to avoid infiltrating our borders? Like many here, I believe in right and wrong and behind it, front and center IS good and evil. A fascist and a communist are two who carriy out evil's will. Communists are evil, Fascists are evil. If Pat Buchanan is a fascist, as Oro says then where are we? Similar statements were made about people like Ronald Reagan. Who here voted for him? Are you then a fascist? If you voted for Pat Buchanan, are you a fascist? I voted for him in 92 and 96. Am I a fascist? Oro would say so. Where is Oro? Why must I talk thru you my friend to make my point? I will not let anyone call him a fascist without calling him/her on it.The article I posted had more to do with Oro calling Pat Buchanan a fascist than it would appear on the surface. It is actually quite brilliant. Intellectuals can do all the research they wish. They will never understand the article. Thank God our forefathers chose to protect the Canadian border many years ago and likewise the Mexican border many years ago. Today, they would be called fascists. By some.Oro you are wrong. Oro, you are wrong. I believe ther is more here than meets the eye. TownCrier (8/17/2000; 20:31:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 35104) Collected this on from our news feed before it dropped off the screen http://www.economist.com/07oS3M6Q/editorial/freeforall/current/index_fn3412.html Article subtitle from The Economist: "Interest rates have been rising around the globe. But central banks seem to be using different compasses to plot their course"The topic for a hundred of the world's central bankers and economists at this year's annual symposium of the KC Fed to be held August 24-26 in Jackson, WY is...drumroll please..."global economic integration". It should prove to be quite interesting, given the backdrop of affairs. The Economist reports that this gathering occurs "only two days after America's Federal Reserve meets for what may be its last chance to raise interest rates before the election. It will also be less than two weeks after the Bank of Japan raised rates for the first time in ten years, and only a few days before the European Central Bank holds its first policy meeting after its summer holiday."Why should you read this article? Because you will want to know what The Economist had to say following this: "On the surface it seems bizarre that Japan, with deflation and a frail economy, has raised interest rates, while almost nobody expects the Fed to raise interest rates at its next policy meeting on August 22nd. America still has rapid growth, of 6% over the past year, and the highest inflation rate of any big rich economy."While pointing out that America's inflation measures have undergone statistical adjustments that understate the values compared to the formulas from past years that would have yeilded higher values today, the article explains that our Fed Chairman is prompt to lean upon measures of our productivity growth in sending the "all calm" signal. It seems that productivity growth for the second quarter was at its briskest pace in 17 years, so the Fed might be seemingly inclined to let the situation work itself out without further rate hike assistence from the FOMC.The Economist suggests that the European Central Bank would surely say 'Why wait?', and that by virtue of having their own 2% price inflation ceiling, "with America's current figures, Wim Duisenberg, the ECB's president, would now be panicking."If the Bank of Japan and the Fed had policy targets to match those of the ECB, The Economist notes that the BOJ would be "madly printing money, not raising interest rates, while the Fed would have been pushing rates up rather less cautiously over the past year."Next week should provide for some interesting news. Cavan Man (8/17/2000; 20:19:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 35103) To Student The fact that you are here speaks volumes about your intellectual curiosity and your wisdom. The forum here is simply one of the very best to be found anywhere. I myself am very fortunate that so many here took me under their wings. Good luck and visit often. Kind regards....CM ET (8/17/2000; 20:14:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 35102) Student Hey Student - let me echo Aristotle's words. This grumpy old man wishes his children had your yearning to learn the nature of things. You'll not find a more elegant forum than this. Welcome! Cavan Man (8/17/2000; 20:09:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 35101) HBM Your comments about renting mirror some thoughts I had about a year ago. Have you thought abot 1 OZ Canadian Silver as the price is better? I know MK can get those easily. Aristotle (8/17/2000; 19:43:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 35100) Hill Billy Mitchell--35075 Just wanted to thank you for the kindness while I was here.---Ari Hill Billy Mitchell (8/17/2000; 19:37:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 35099) Correction of # 35094 The following should be corrected:Now at what paper dollar price would 30 silver eagles have to be to exchange them for $585. (Viola- $585 divided by 30 = $19.50). Should read: Now at what paper dollar price would 30 silver eagles have to be to exchange them for five acres @ $585. (Viola- $585 times 5 divided by 30 = $97.50). HBM Aristotle (8/17/2000; 19:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 35098) Hello right back at you, gentle Student A freshman?? Gads, man. Either this is your teacher's idea of punishment for throwing erasers, or else you're an enterprising young man who wanted to know why the $20 bills you made on your laser printer won't get you sodas at the local grocery store, but will in fact buy you a prompt visit from Uncle Sam and room and board at the nearest federal institution.At any rate, I congratulate you on getting such an early start toward the goal of clear economic thought, whether you realize this is the course you are on or not. If you have the ability to balance a checkbook and to exercise good moral judgement, you will certainly become the truest economist here in no time at all because you are arriving (I'll assume) without all of the unnecessary baggage of false indoctrination that so many of the grumpy old men already here have been doing battle with for years.If you are willing to share your honest opinions about things without worrying about whether you are impressing anyone, I have every confidence that you will soon be teaching me a thing or two about life. Welcome aboard.Gold. Never too young to get you some. ---Aristotle Cavan Man (8/17/2000; 19:31:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 35097) HBM's Posts Sounds like good 'ole Missouri horse sense to me. What about buying PM at this juncture, waiting for the ride up and then getting debt free with fewer dollars than owed. I think the leverage possibility is very enticing given all that I have read thes past 18 months. I know, I know; we could be wrong.HBM: From the state that gave us the last great President this country has ever had. Salutations! Hill Billy Mitchell (8/17/2000; 19:25:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 35096) Last Post for tonite, I promise The following is a repost of my post # 13069 on 9/8/99:Suggested portfolio allocation in these times:Physical holdings only:40% GOLD20% SILVER20% FOOD CLOTHING SHELTER20% SELF-DEFENSEForget real estate (you should be renting at this time)Your gold will buy 1,000 acres of standing timber or whatever real estate you want to convert to when the hammer falls on paper.end of old post.I offer no change at this point.HBM Hill Billy Mitchell (8/17/2000; 19:15:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 35095) Not a recommendation The following is not a recommendation, it is simply what I have been implementing for myself for several years. I have divested myself of all real estate, I drive junk cars, rent a modest farm house in the middle of 300 acres for $75 per month plus utilities and generally live like a pauper. It is fun, believe me. If I had no choice and no hope for a change it, of course, would not be such a great adventure. Now I must admit that my wife on occasion puts a little pressure on me to free up a little bit of our savings. I let her eat out any time and as often as she wants and she buys any and all of the clothes she wants. She groans occasionally but without fail at least once per month she tells me how happy she is and that we must some day buy the farm on which we live because she couldn't bear the thought of moving from such a beautiful and peaceful place. I must confess that we do pay an annual membership at a very inexpensive local golf course because we both love to hit that ball although we are both very poor golfers. We make it a point to always go to the country club in our 1980 rusted out Lincoln Continental for which I paid $1,500 one year ago and one of my country club friends (a client) laughingly refers to as the pimpmobile.We are having the time of our life because if nothing bad happens economically we could at any point change our lifestyle although I doubt that we would.Now, all you analysts out their can find a way to butcher the numbers in the timber scenario, because I have not put much thought into them as I am mostly a theorist. I could have worked on it and made it fool proof. I do not have time for that at the moment. The general theory remains in tact without certain mathematical perfections and you can't argue with the pure bliss that we are experiencing come what may. There is only one great concern for us. We fear that the freedoms, which we have enjoyed, may vaporize some day and our grandchildren will not have such a good life as this. Peter the Great - I am doing all that I know to do to protect those freedoms for our posterity and I know you are. As for me, give me liberty or give me death. There was a Patrick long ago who made that statement and backed it up with his life. He was partly responsible for those freedoms that we have enjoyed for much of our life. If I heard the current thumping and stumping Patrick say that and I thought he meant it, I would beat a path to the courthouse and register to vote.Please forgive for the lengthy series of diatribes. I got lost along the way and I being the simple fellow that I am, simply could not help myself.By the way. To the new poster "Pete", do not think that I do not admire you. If you were to think that you would be have pegged me wrongly.HBM Hill Billy Mitchell (8/17/2000; 19:08:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 35094) The thinkable could very well happen Now let me paint a picture that might surprise some of you. It does not matter if the market in your area is the same as here and it does not matter if you take some other type of hard asset investment and analyze in a pure and equitable fashion. You can find out what something is worth under changing circumstances by giving it a little thought and asking someone who knows the answers to a few questions.Here are my conclusions about standing timber in the Ozark Hills 100 or more miles away from any metro area:1) Today a thousand acres of totally unimproved standing timber is worth approximately $925,000.2) The standing timber is grossly overvalued because it is based on a temporarily thriving economy. It is worth that much today in paper dollars but tomorrow it could be nearly worthless if and only if the paper it is priced in becomes nearly worthless. The reason it is overvalued - the timber has not yet been sold, cut, and collection for the sale has not occurred, thus we have the risk of getting the transaction being completed before the real price of the dollar has not been factored in. It does take a bit of time to get the timber and the land sold and you would get more if you first sold the timber and then sold the timberless land subsequently.3) A collapse in the economy for any reason would bring demand for timber, standing or otherwise, to a pittance. 4) It is overvalued now and may be for some time but the day will come when it will be undervalued and you wouldn't want to have to sell at that time, now would you? So why not sell now while it is overvalued. You could take the $625,000 from the sale of the timber and buy 2000 gold eagles @ $300 each with the cash. You could take the $300,000 from the sale of the land and buy 20,000 silver eagles @ $8.00 each. That would leave you with 165,000 to pay taxes. Assuming a cost basis in the transaction of 40%, you would have a long-term taxable gain of $555,000 @ 15% maximum tax = $83,250 plus a state income tax of approximately $33,000 in the high tax state of Missouri. Net cash after taxes and purchase of physical metals ($48,750). This is rather simplistic but generally valid.5) At $925 per acre one could purchase an acre for approximately 120 silver eagles or 3 gold eagles today.6) In order for one to buy five acres of this stuff for 30 silver eagles the land would have go down in paper dollar terms and the silver eagles would have to go up in paper dollar terms by certain proportions. Let us determine a scenario which would do the trick. Let us say that timber drops in $ price terms by 60 %. That would make the Timber now worth $375 per acre and let us say that the land in $ price terms would drop by 30%. That would make the raw land worth $210 per acre. Total value (375 + 210 = 585) Now at what paper dollar price would 30 silver eagles have to be to exchange them for $585. (Viola- $585 divided by 30 = $19.50). At what price would gold eagles have to be valued in paper dollar terms in order to bring the $5,850 required to purchase 10 acres of this standing timberland with just one 1 ounce coin. The math easier this time. (Viola - $5,850 divided by 1 = $5,850).Because the seller now has 2,000 gold eagles and 20, 000 silver eagles @ a paper value of $ 5,850 and $97.50 respectively later after the crash he could conceivable purchase well over 23,000 acres with his $13.65 Million. Divide this by 10 and you see that one could own 2,000 acres with a 100 acre rather than a 1,000 acre scenario.Now no one has any idea how these price relationships are going to pan out. I realize that the above picture is very simplistic and that the relationships between the future prices of land and timber and gold and silver and platinum and copper and corn and soy beans and coffee ad infinitum cannot be predicted with any degree of accuracy. That is not the point. The point is that land and timber and a lot of other things are highly overpriced today and if you own something that is overpriced the wise move would be for you to sell it and rotate it into something that is undervalued. Then the day will come when that which you bought low will be priced very highly in paper dollars again and that which you sold which was overpriced will one day be underpriced again and can be bought back by rotating again.A non-recommendation follows with my next post.HBM Student (8/17/2000; 18:58:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 35093) Hello to all Hello, this is my first post on the Forum and I hope everyone will humor me in my attempt to educate myself in the some what complicated study of gold. To give everyone a vague idea of who I am, I will say I am a freshman in high school and have become interested in gold just in the past few months. I have started to read some of the posts in the hall of fame and already I feel that I have learned a lot. I had better mention that I am only able to come to this page every one or two days so my posts will be somewhat erratic. Thanks again! Hill Billy Mitchell (8/17/2000; 18:46:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 35092) Standing timber This man, "Client John", is at this time the most respected lumber buyer around. He knows the market and although he only buys milled lumber for his employer believe me he knows a bit about standing timber in these here Ozark Hills. Our telephone conversation follows:HBM: Hey Client John, how goes it?… "Yeah it is hot and humid too, you got a minute to talk, I have some questions."…Good, I want to share some information with some people on the internet and you have the poop. I will tell them about you and yours but they will not know who you are or where you live. If they were to find out who you are some day would that be a problem…"No. Well good, I know that you trust me but you know me I am a bumbling fool and sometimes things do not go just the way I plan them to. I just need to have the freedom to make a mistake without your having a problem with it…Well, I can't guarantee anything, but… no, it would not cost you any money. Your money or your reputation will remain in tact and I am not going to reveal your identity…Now how many of your 100 acres are in standing timber and what could you get for the timber on the stump if you sold it today and what would be the value of the acreage after all the marketable timber has been cut?"Client John: Well, 80 acres are in timber. The timber is worth $48,000 to $50,000. Timberland without good road access, utilities or water, and all the marketable stuff cut is only worth about $ 300 per acre.HBM: Is your timber typical for marketable timber around here?Client John: Well yes, I guess. Some might only bring about $25,000 and some would bring up to $75,000 depending on the type and grade and quantity of trees. I guess you could expect about, 3,000 Ft. per acre @ $200 per $1,000 Ft. = $48,000 thousand for my timber though.HBM: So would you say that typically around here a decent tract of standing timber would sell for $625/per acre on the stump ($50,000 divided by 80 acres = $625)Client John: Yes that would be typical.HBM: Well then, since totally unimproved land would be worth about $300 per acre wouldn't that mean that on average a thousand acres with typical timberland around here would be worth about $925 per acre and reduced to $300 per acre after the marketable stuff has been cut.Client John: Yes that would be true. Yes, I would say that would be typical. A good way to look at it. I know of people who have bought large tracts, cut the timber and put the timberless land up for sale at $275 to $325 per acre. Yes, that is good picture of the market today.End of conversation after a little more small talk.See next post for a prognostication from the above telephone conversation.HBM Hill Billy Mitchell (8/17/2000; 18:42:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 35091) @ CavanMan # 35042 CavanManNo is the answer on $300 silver and $20,000 goldJust for preliminaries I would like to share a telephone conversation I just now had with a Client of mine. Let us call him "Client John".Client John used to be a small business man, very small indeed. Had a grocery store that mostly sold to customers out in the hollers. He did not make much money but did not have much overhead and no payroll as he and his wife ran the store with very occasional help from the mother-in-law. That means no time off. This went on for about 13 years. They made very little money by citified standards, yet they were able to save a little each year. In addition he built his own house with the, mostly free, help of his two carpenter brothers. The house was built on about 100 acres of standing timber which needed some growing. I have no idea what his house and land cost him in cash but I could guess that he has about $60,000 of cash invested, not counting his labor which was quite substantial. I believe the most he ever had borrowed was $40,000 on all assets at any one time. He and his wife sold the inventory in the store and got jobs. They did not own the real estate and cleared very little from the sale, maybe $15,000 to $20,000. His wife went work at the local bank as a teller and after a couple of moves he ended up as a lumber buyer for one of the largest pallet mills around. I have known them for about 20 years (2 years before they sold the store and 18 years after.) They became my clients in 1997. We set a simple goal for them. The goal was to be debt free within 2 years. Now most of my clients would have taken at least 7 - 10 years to get out of debt using my methods; however this couple really was already well on their way before we set out on my program. So they are an unusual case and reached their goal easily in two years. What I am trying to say is that they would have achieved great success without me. They bought a goodly amount of gold eagles before they got completely out of debt but I did not recommend that. I urged them to first become debt free but once I had them brainwashed as to the true value of our little safe haven I could not restrain them. They have liquidated all of their paper investments to get debt free and moved into physical metals. They are not "normal" and few are in a position to do what they have done. The only dangerous paper that they own is in the form of IRA CD's at the local bank in the wife's name, the husband's having already been converted to Physical coins. They took the tax hit on cashing in his IRA's and have never looked back. They plan to cash in the wife's IRA's but that remains to be seen. One other thing, they have been offered $350,000 for their home on the 100 acres 80 of which are in standing timber. They turned the offer down. My advice was to sell because the place is overvalued by the market. Since they are debt free it really doesn't matter. My clients take some of my advice and chew up the rest and spit it out.I told you all this to talk about the standing timber.See next post for continuation of this subject. HI - HAT (8/17/2000; 18:40:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 35090) Al Fulchino What Masters writes, is so entrenched, it is not seen.Only cataclysms break the cycle. ET (8/17/2000; 18:07:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 35089) cb2 Hey cb2 - good to hear from you! Glad to see the European socialists finally starting to see the light regarding the Austrian election. A bright light in an otherwise dismal state of affairs in Europe.Yes - nationalism seems to finally be dying. Tough economic times will put us to the test however. Hopefully the world will learn from the Russian experience of late. The Russian people seem to have dumped the currency and as an additional bonus managed to free themselves of the government yoke. Who would have predicted it? I would be willing to bet that the fastest real economic growth in the world today is occurring amongst the people of the former USSR. I haven't heard of the predicted mass starvation which we were led to believe would occur if the government and its currency failed. Miracles never cease, eh? There is hope! Cavan Man (8/17/2000; 15:37:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 35088) USAGOLD Thanks for the excellent copy of the recent "News and Views". CoBra(too) (8/17/2000; 14:34:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 35087) Sir ET your msg. 35.086 reminded me of some opening remarks at the Forum Alpbach, Austria's answer to Harvards summer academy, founded 1946, by both Chancellor Schuessel and former VC Busek as they felt there is one thing they'd gladly see left in old century "Nationalism". Regards cb2 ET (8/17/2000; 13:56:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 35086) Al Hey Al - how have you been? Frankly partner, I didn't get much out of the article you posted. It seemed very poorly researched (Patty Hurst?), and seemed to ramble on without making a point. Who wrote the article? What does it have to do with Buchanan?If I might add a different perspective to the discussion; I didn't find ORO's response regarding Buchanan to be of a simplistic nature or simply name-calling. I apparently have read much of the same material as ORO quotes here from time to time and it would seem that you simply misunderstand where he or I are coming from. The Austrian economists' perspective is sorely missing from the political discussion in the world today and for an easy to understand reason. It is anti-state, anti-war, and pro free market. For these reasons it gets little play in the mainstream press, educational institutions or the political process. By the nature of your response I would guess you have read little of the Austrian's point of view. As I recommended to Shifty, you will gain a new perspective by reading von Mises or Rothbard. I can guarantee you will not be disappointed with the time you spend reading these fine authors. For more info, go to;www.mises.orgwww.lewrockwell.comYou might also read Davidson & Rees-Mogg's fine books, particularly "The Sovereign Individual", which was published recently. Mises' "Omnipotent Government" is a must read for anyone wishing to understand how a society could become convinced that it needed to invade neighboring countries rather than simply trade with them. Make no mistake about it, this thinking is still with us today. From Mises';"Etatism (statism) and free trade in international relations are incompatible, not only in the long run but even in the short run. Etatism must be accompanied by measures severing the connections of the domestic market with foreign markets. Modern protectionism, with its tendency to make every country economically self-sufficient as far as possible, is inextricably linked with interventionism and its inherent tendency to turn into socialism. Economic nationalism is the unavoidable outcome of etatism." Simply Me (8/17/2000; 13:32:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 35085) @Al Fulchino Well, it looks like the author of the text you presented has it all figured out! Except for one thing, the conclusions he draws have as little basis in reality as the stero-types he draws them from. It looks like he drew his analysis of "the abused woman syndrome" from a 1940's psychology book and from the stories of bar-room buddies.There are as many paths to facism as there are to freedom. Today's would-be Hitler must come disguised as NOT-Hitler....and that still leaves a lot of room.Whatever path the new-Hitler chooses, though. He can be recognized by his enmity with the 3 G's. God, Gold and Guns.simply me wolavka (8/17/2000; 13:03:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 35084) Comex, Cabal, or whomever?????? Dollar drop in dec gold tonite, than we blow thru 284.Only a matter of time now and you can't hold her down. Cavan Man (8/17/2000; 12:45:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 35083) Hill Billy Mitchell The previous post was meant for you. Sorry Al. I had started on a response that I will save for another time. Cavan Man (8/17/2000; 12:44:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 35082) Al Fulchino Sir HBM, what percent of PM (metal) would you counsel for the person who does not own his/her own business? What about silver? Thank you. Al Fulchino (8/17/2000; 12:23:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 35081) here is the rest I was just notified that I didn't have a complete article...so since this might be your first time seeing this..skip down to my post< a few down> and return here...thanksVictims are despot apologistsThe person-pleasing aspect of brainwashing is preceded by three stages of damage to the psyche. Response to intimidation produces guilt, guilt becomes the feeling of inferiorityand worthlessness, and then comes that void for love that identifies the corrupter as the source of its fulfillment. The next level of control is called transference. Your servitude is then transferred to any authority who looks like, acts like, and has the same attitude as the person who violated you long ago. In other words, you will be a slave for life, your own denial and defensiveness keeping you trapped.Tyrants know that their victims’ defensiveness works for them, and is the reason why the world embraces them as saviors. No matter how evil that tyrant may be, victims always overlook their obvious flaws in exchange for their loving favors. In the United States of America, millions of people are enamored with communism, overlooking the evidence of hundreds of millions murdered for their political opinions under socialist regimes. And on the political extreme right, the Holocaust never happened. The battered woman likewise will excuse the viciousness of her mate for the validation of his nature now inside her.Passive aggressiveEvery abused woman is likewise imprinted with the seeds of both the victim and the bully. She is weak before the strong and strong before the weak, depending upon the relationship—which is to say, her children are in danger of being infected. Her submissive side seeks to be anointed; in other words, it seeks power through recognition in exchange for the "service" of her love. When she discovers that she is getting the short end of the stick, her anger is kindled and goes underground as subversion. Now she begins to betray and undermine her man while faking love for him. Then there's the moment of truth, where she is caught, and in that moment the confusing bully side could emerge. Caught taking advantage, stealing opportunity and power she was not given, she acts like the victim while being the wrongdoer. Yelling and screaming and carrying on, the very nature of the confusing manipulating violator begins to appear and sometimes turns the tables on her mate, and roles change.There is something very odd about what I call the victim/victimizer. It is the nature of the bully to be offended at being caught in the act of some nefarious deed. Trauma imprints the spore of the identities of both parents, which makes all bullies cowards and all cowards bullies. They wear two faces, one for their own bully, the other for their victim. The only reason why any abused person continues as a hapless victim is because they are too weak to resist, or because of a modicum of conscience prevents them from becoming what they hate. Anger produces one of two unfortunate choices of roles, to become the bully or a wimp. So the only choice left for a person with a conscience is to take the abuse, which seems preferable to being the abuser.Speak up before it's too lateThe culturally repressed people of Czechoslovakia lived in an environment of political correctness which slowly paralyzed speaking up. When the Nazis invaded their country, they dared not speak up. In America, standing up and being counted has become a dangerous occupation. In many universities there are presently restrictions against so-called "politically incorrect" speech, ostracizing and intimidating to those conservatives who still hold American Judeo-Christian values.The doctrines of politically correct speech as established in many of our universities is a precursor to tyranny. You see, the truth hurts—the truth offends and hurts the feelings of both the compromised and the wicked. Under this system, it is the so-called victim' s right to decide what is offensive. If it hurts, it must be a hate crime, even if it is the truth. So speak up, Americans, while you still have your freedoms; do not be afraid of losing what you've always thought of as security. If you do not stand up and fight for what is right when you can easily win, there will come a time that you will have to stand up anyway, when you know you're going to lose. Prime minister Winston Churchill told Englishmen in World War II, "You will stand up and fight even though you know you are going to die, because it's better to fight and die than live as a slave." Always remember that what you think of as your so-called security can very quickly become your prison cell. Therefore, fellow Americans, take heed—you need to cherish what you know is right and true more than you cherish your securities and comforts.The legacy of the abused womanAs you can see, all the problems of the human race can be traced back to one single root cause, all suffering being merely a variation of one single theme. What I am about to say, with regard to the cure, may be perceived as being just as verbally hurtful as those who have badmouthed and degraded you in the past. If you are sincerely seeking an answer to your problem, surely it's because you are seeking the truth. However, realistically the first truth is always disturbing. To every stubborn ego, correction seems like hate speech. With that in mind, allow me to cite a typical relationship with men.Perhaps the reason this article has attracted your attention is because you are that abused woman. If this is so, the chances are, more likely than not, you were born into a dysfunctional family. In spite of the cruelty, you somehow retained something that your family had lost -- conscience, and conscience made them feel uncomfortable as though you were watching and judging them. In their eyes you were an ugly duckling, and nothing you could do could ever please them. You were rewarded only with contempt and rejection as you tried to make peace and keep everyone happy. The problem they had with you was that, not only would you not conform, but something in you could not conform. There was a light in you that you didn't know you had. That light was a perpetual threat to the parasitical, abusive world around you. I know you tried through your anger and guilt to change them and make them love you. In a manner of speaking you tried to walk like a duck, and quack like one of them. But you could never really be one of them because you were the beautiful swan. That is why you could never please, because no matter how much tried you could never really be one of them, and they knew that. That is why the truth is painful and will set you free as you hold up your light to the vampirish, bloodsucking world around you.One way or another the noble father every child needs was not there for you. Pick which one: wimp, alcoholic, drug addict, and womanizer. Any way you slice it, children need the love of a heroic dad to protect them from the world, sometimes even from their mother. In this variation, your mother enabled your father to become what he was. Abused women with a poor self-image will put up with anything to hold on to a weird sense of security, by feeding themselves to their husband's rage.There is an old saying: "Weakness is the handmaiden of wickedness." Weakness emboldens wickedness to take liberties, providing that rush of power to which all tyrants are addicted. By resenting your father's cruelty, you identified with your mother, allowing the programming of the people-pleasing female to be passed on to you. Your mother in her cowardly submissiveness bequeathed to you the legacy of the abused woman syndrome. You always felt the guilt that your abuser needed to feel, because your resentment made you doubt what was right, and indeed you were guilty of that. To cure that problem, all you need to do is forbear to be resentful toward your intimidator from now on, and Presto, he or she will begin to experience the guilt of their shameful behavior toward you, and begin to fry in your light. Careful now—they will just be trying to intimidate you out of your newfound dignity, so be prepared to stand your ground patiently until they are over their tantrum.Your past turmoil has emotionally programmed you. A loveless or cruel family represents betrayal and injustice that seduced you to hate your parents. Parents are supposed to protect their children from corruption rather than being its source. Anger happens to be one of the deadly sins that separates a child from God's love, and converts the allegiance to love to be filled from a corrupter's vile affection—in this case, the cruel father. Therefore, if your violator is your father, then throughout your life your loyalty to the God of your conscience will be diverted to seek to be fulfilled through men like your father. In other words, you have been programmed to a life of servitude in exchange for love, but all you will ever find, unless you become the abuser, is abuse. A woman can live out her life of quiet desperation with resentments smoldering underground, oozing out in many kinds of emotional and physical illnesses.A fascination with naughty boysPsychology can only guess as to the mystery of the abused women, without coming up with any real answers. The answer has always been under their noses; the culprit is ego. What they are missing is the emotional connection.Women are drawn to flattery like a bee to honey. To hold on to that ego rush, the abused woman rewards the man with the pleasure of her body and thereby converting male weakness for her into virtue, a sexual addiction that eventually ravages her. When this compulsive affection is eventually seen for what it really is, abuse by way of sex, then comes the revulsion of hatred towards the "beloved."At this point that vicious cycle kicks in. Resentment creates guilt, guilt awakens female sexual longing for approval to assuage the guilt. If the man is a wimp for love, the woman's ego is bound by her loathing to service his maternal dependency. Manacled to him with need she once thought was glorious love awakens such a horrible contempt for him that it can drive her to drink, and to seek love from other men. Internal conflict can cause the poor woman to end up with a nervous breakdown. Most women are in such denial, so stubborn and hardened against the truth, that they may never wake up to find the true love they seek. Terrible need compels them toward endless futility, and a great void that is never filled.And so it came to pass you were born into this scene. If you have been able to read thus far, and have not run off screaming into the night, then I can tell you that you are not quite like either of your parents, so there is real hope for you. It is also possible that your mother may not be quite like one of those mean-spirited women who take perverse pleasure in gloating over the inferiority of men. Your parents may have been helplessly creating victims too.Now that you're old enough to approach Mom with your new dignity, her old nature just might melt in your presence, revealing a long-suffering friend. Here, also, you may find that your father is not such a bad sort after all. Your mother may have unwittingly set him up to fail, and so passed on to you the mantle of judgment she felt from her mother. In this manner, your perception of your father was distorted by her implanted emotion, and as through her eyes you began to see him as a failure, establishing the pattern of contempt for all men. Remember the principle of transference.Because you were blessed from the day you were born, you had no stomach for the kind of love you were compelled to give to get, and took no pleasure in the judgment you felt. Unlike most people, you are happy to understand your fault, which liberates you now to know the truth that will set you free.You were hypnotically drawn to failing men, and if they were not failing, then you set them up to fail, so as to fix. Your compulsion required men who needed fixing. Hardened, sensual women revel in both lust and judgment, and feel like Mother Superior over every "son" made over in her image. There is judgment upon the rebel son and husband, and an outpouring of saccharine love for the helpless, pathetic and often schizophrenic dependent she has created to worship her, in what becomes mutual hell.Bad experiences make all too many women so cynical that it is difficult for them to distinguish a good man from a bad one. Attitude can easily set up all men to fail, even the good ones. If a decent man comes along to give love and the occasional needed correction, they rebel against his male authority. A contentiously stubborn individual is unable to receive constructive criticism from anyone. This is the main reason for continued trouble with men. One cannot always be right, and then expect to have a relationship. Bitterness and mistrust causes the belief that men are incapable of love, that they need to be changed, tenderized and feminized. Bitterness has somehow converted the need for love into the need to be worshiped.The spirit of the voidThe point should be clear by now, that the people-pleasing aspect of brainwashing is preceded by those three stages of damage to the psyche. Resentment causes guilt, guilt becomes feelings of inferiority, worthlessness and a desperate compulsion to fill the emptiness with the affection of fiendish friends.The spirit of the void, seeking fulfillment, identifies with the spirit of the corrupter in all its forms: in people, places and things throughout life. There's an old saying: "You can take the boy out of the country, but you cannot take the country out of the boy." The seed does not fall far from the tree. Throughout life, the person-pleaser will transfer their allegiance to any look-act-smell-alike authority possessed by the characteristics of those who set them up in their formative years. The spirit of the violating parent literally hands you over to a life of servitude to authorities who finish the job. Remember that in every victim there lurks also the spirit of the bully, which can emerge as the corrupter, seeking that rush of power from a weaker vessel with evangelical zeal.Therefore, have compassion for your parents, your brothers and your sisters. You are presently standing in their shoes, and like yourself they were once innocent children. Therefore love, which is to say, drop your resentment toward them, and forgive them, for they know not what they do. Even if they do know the harm they've done and are not sorry, all the more reason to forbear to resent them. Either way, friend or foe, your life will change for the better.Perhaps you understand now what it means to be born in sin. It simply means that from the beginning the human race has experienced corruption, and fallen asleep to the truth of who they were. And so, the conditioned response to the ancestor serpent, worshiping aspect of love and devotion has spread throughout the generations and the world. Through one man sin, and (a life that leads to) death through sin, came into the world and has spread exponentially throughout all despot-ruled nations.The awakeningIf you have been able to read thus far and have not run off screaming into the night, then there is real hope for you. It is also quite possible that your parents did not intend harm to you, because they were compelled. They may have been aware of the harm they were doing, but could not prevent slavishly obeying the programming of their youth.Your freedom and dignity may awaken them to salvation; therefore, approach your parents with a detached dignity and see what happens. You never can tell—you might find a friend rather than the fiend you thought them to be. In the event there is a fiend inside them, be careful. Confront them patiently with your new composure, and that will immunize you against any attempt to savage you. Deal patiently with all people from now on. If it is meant to be, your parent's old nature will melt, revealing a long-suffering friend.You may also find that your father is not such a bad guy after all. It could be that your mother, commanded by that inherited spell, set him up to fail you both. That is why you felt what your mother felt toward dad, and hence with all men.Much compassion is needed for men. Since the first failing father that begot the human race, came the procession of failing fathers complete with enabling Eves. Something needs to be worked out here, so give your man breathing space through patient love. Forbear to resent him, and the compulsion to enable him will disappear. From the first Eve proceeded the mortality of male pride, calling forth from the women the first enabling love, a legacy replicated throughout the generations. The tragedy of dictatorship continues, until fallen man and woman find the truth that will set them free.A simple solution to everythingWould it make sense to say that if you weren't upset and so guilty, you would then not have the need to make up for anything? Have I not said that resentment is the root of guilt, as well as the need for the enabling love to sooth the pain? If that is so, then from now on, endure your burden patiently, and watch your guilt fade away. You will soon lose your fear of standing up boldly to any adversary; no longer will you feel insecure and unworthy, a love slave no more. You see, it takes the union with God's love to conquer the hate you feel.What does the Good Book say about this? "Through patience will you possess your souls." Love (which is to say, forebear to resent) your enemy, do kindness to those that hate you. Hold up the mirror of dignity under fire, and watch the entire course of your life change. If you will allow yourself to experience remorse and sadness for the harm you have caused by searching for worshipful love, then you too will experience the forgiveness of God. You will be at peace with yourself, and perhaps at war with the world. But surely, that is much better than being at war with yourself, and at peace with the world!Copyright © 2000 schippi (8/17/2000; 12:10:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 35080) US Dollar There is no precedent in history where the economy of the world's major currency vehicle has been so preposterously out of balance. ( Dr. Kurt Richebacher August 15, 2000 ) Cavan Man (8/17/2000; 12:02:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 35079) HBM Sir, I am not smart nor wise enough to fool you. I submit that standing timber is a good choice because when the dollar devalues against other currencies, that standing timber you refer to will be ground into pulp (squirrels and all) and made into tons of paper and paperboard to be shipped all over the world (as in fact paper/board from the US is today). The US being perhaps the very best source of renewable fiber in the world, paper machines will be humming. Peter Asher will be vinidcated. The tons will roll. Thanks for your response. Hill Billy Mitchell (8/17/2000; 11:30:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 35078) @ Cavan Man (08/16/00; 16:54:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 35046) SirYou say: "HBM, A wise gentleman who has been MIA here might disagree with your analysis. The person I am thinking of is very experienced and knowledgeable and probably has a lot of data to back him up. "You ask: 1) "How would you respond?"2) "Could you please explain the significance of the yield curve inversion?"3) "Who'd want to live in humidityville anyway?"My Response:1) I would like to paraphrase another wise old gentlemen, John Milton, -- the mistakes of those who are reckoned orthodoxy and their incautious handling of data have taught me to always question the integrity of the data as well as any interpretation offered. If the wise old gentleman you are referring to is who I think he is, I would respond with the degree of respect which he certainly has earned. I would not be intimidated by data but would be humbled should he consider my thoughts worthy of his comment.2) I suppose you are referring to my statement, "that which is hidden by the press and the politicians can be seen in the treasury yield curve." Sir Cavan Man, you would not be trying to trick me would you? (smile) I did not use the term inversion, did I? I had a reason for omitting the word "inversion". I have it on good authority, the authority of history, that the yield curve tells us what the Fed is doing to us whether right side up or upside-down. Of course I know that you are referring to the present position of the curve and you are right to ask that question. That is exactly why I posted. Certainly we want to know as much about the trees as possible but we need to be able to stand back and look at the forest. The yield curve provides the optically prescribed lens with which to view the forest, in my opinion. We might find that the forest is on fire and choose to change our outfitting.The present inversion of the curve tells us that, propaganda to the contrary, the Fed has not yet chosen to back off from its tightening posture. My suggestion is that one should listen to the rhetoric yet keep one's eyes squarely on the curve. This curve watching, I have learned, is a very boring business on a day to day basis as the procession is very slow and has many minor twists and turns. The Fed has only three choices. It can stand pat, it can continue in the same direction it has been going, or it can change directions. The Fed can never admit to the possibility of there being a fork in the road, for to take one fork or the other would admit to guesswork and all credibility would be lost. The whole point of Greenspeak is that of disguising what is on one's mind in order to have a way out, should one be wrong. Though the Fed would never openly claim infallibility neither does it admit to having made mistakes, at least not until those responsible are long since removed from the controls.One might ask, "When was the last time that the Fed did change directions?" I suggest that we look closely at the following:Changes in the Discount Rate: 01/30/96 lowered from 5.25 to 5.00 10/15/98 lowered from 5.00 to 4.75 11/17/98 lowered from 4.75 to 4.50 08/24/99 raised from 4.50 to 4.75 11/18/99 raised from 4.75 to 5.00 02/02/00 raised from 5.00 to 5.25 03/02/00 raised from 5.25 to 5.50 05/18/00 raised from 5.50 to 6.00It takes a considerable passage of time for a change in the direction of interest rates to become apparent. The first signal appears to have been the change in direction from downward to upward in the Discount rate on August 24, 1999, (the first such move since January 31, 1995, a mere five months short of four full years). The first reversal in the spreads pops up in the Fed Funds rate vs the 30-year Treasury Bond. If the Fed is seriously putting on the brakes the other spreads will follow slowly, surely and without fail. On March 22, 2000 the first inversion of the FF rate over the Long-Bond (30-year Treasury) occurred; however the first real change in the direction of the spread occurred on August 25, 1999, the day after the Fed first raised the Discount rate. Hence, although the spread changed directions on the day following the lowering of the discount rate, the first day that the spread actually went upside-down arrived almost five months (along with two more 25 basis point increases in the Discount Rate) after the initial change in the direction by the Fed. On August 24, 1999, the precise date that the Fed first began raising the Discount Rate, the long, meandering road of cheap money came to an end. The turn was made. We are now on the long, meandering road of expensive money. By the expression cheap money and expensive money I mean the cost of renting the money, ie. interest rates. We did not see it clearly and still do not see it clearly when we are looking at the trees. I submit that smoke appeared in the center of the forest on August 24, 1999. After three more increases in the Discount Rate plus an additional 20 days the First true inversion occurred (March 22, 2000) and according to ORO a full inversion of the curve finally arrived in early August 2000, nearly a year after the initial turn.Watch the curve, watch the FF vs Long-Bond spread, but for the next true reversal in direction watch for a lowering in the Discount Rate by at least fifty basis points in one move or a move of twenty-five basis points three times in succession. I personally believe that the Fed is seriously intent on pulling out all stops to eventually get back into control of the monetary situation. Yes, I believe that the Fed has lost control as it did in the 70's and is trying to get it back. The Fed is fallible. They may not succeed this time. In any event we are in for a rough ride.I feel certain that another wise old man with a lot of data would agree with my prognostication. This wise old man would be Milton Friedman, a man who will soon be in the limelight if his health holds. I do hope so, for we will need someone with his proven credibility (a Moses) and a man of the stature and intestinal fortitude of a Charles Volker (a Joshua) to first lead us out of Egypt and then into the promised land.3) Humidityville? For those who wonder what Cavan Man was referring to, the answer is the State of Missouri.He was having fun with me. I enjoyed that Cavan Man. My answer - I haven't a clue.I was using the analogy of the standing timber acreage in Missouri because it is the most attractive option to me when it comes time to exit with a good portion of my physical holdings. My reasons for that choice justify another post. It would be interesting for others to give their thoughts on exit strategy, something that has not been covered very well on this forum. There are those who plan to convert a portion of physical when it becomes overpriced and something else becomes underpriced.HBMPS: - For those who say that they will never sell I would say that that is exactly what my "buy and hold forever" friends plan to do with their paper investments. Of course one should not sell the portion which represents only insurance against the loss of all other holdings. OZ (8/17/2000; 11:10:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 35077) Barrick Gold rides again 14:03 16-08-00TO ALL INTERESTED: I have been a shareholder of MDN (Northern Mining Explorations on TSE) for over five years now and have been following this company along with PGD (Pangea Goldfields) very closely since their entry into Tanzania. Tanzania is one of the most, if not the most hot spot for gold exploration and discoveries in the world today. As most MDN and PGD shareholders have no doubt done, I have carried out extensive analysis as to what the value of MDN should be on a takeover and the present situation that MDN is in since PGD was taken out by ABX (Barrick Gold). I have come to the conclusion that ABX could be accused of a form of ostracism since they are deliberately showing a total lack of fairplay and respect towards MDN. ABX are knowmn worldwide for their tactics towards the smaller producers and exploration firms. When PGD was taken out a while back, MDN shareholders could have concluded that ABX wanted to take PGD first and then MDN. But now many weeks have gone by and MDN is being kept in the dark. No contacts have been made with MDN, MDN does not know exactly what to expect and ABX are trying to isolate MDN and undermine the confidence of its shareholders thus causing a selloff and lowering the share price. No doubt ABX are noticing the very good performance of MDN shares on the market since the last week of July. Since a precedent has been created by ABX for paying PGD shareholders a 52% over market price, the same can be expected by MDN shareholders. Therefore the message to Barrick Gold: The whole world is watching via the internet and the whole world is aware of your usual lack of fairplay towards takeover candidates. YOU WILL NOT SUCCEED THIS TIME.SIGNED: A shareholder disgusted with ABX. Al Fulchino (8/17/2000; 11:06:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 35076) For a deeper understanding vs simple blurts of namecalling I havent had much time to respond so the simpleton tactics that I saw here a few days ago. And since then I came across the text that I have supplied below. We all know fascists do exist, but how are they formed? What are their tactics? How to we see through their actions? Hopefully the article below will be interesting reading to many here, as I believe it will. It isn't enough that a person as respected as he may be for his economic wisdom who resides here in this hall can yell "fire" in a crowded movie theater or yell "fascist". No it is not enough, at least for me. I noticed my challenge to Sir Oro went unanswered and I do understand why. Read on if you will. Then look upon th epolitical landscape and tell me who is and who is not a fascist. See for yourself. <apologies in advanced this is unsplellchecked>Ten years after the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the Communist party secured 40 percent of the German vote. East Germans could not have understood that 40 years of the "Stockholm syndrome" had made them permanent victims, Manchurian candidates carrying forward the agenda of their corrupters even in freedom. Just as abused women replicate the misery of their home life in marriage, so did the programmed East Germans project into their new "home" the environment that created them. Now the specter of tyranny hangs over their West German liberators just as it presently does over American soil.The principles described in this text are currently being utilized to enslave the American people. Russian psychiatrists have developed highly subtle and sophisticated forms of cruelty based on the phenomenon of the abused woman, in order to demoralize and thus subvert the allegiance of entire populations. The principle is known as psychopolitics. The conversion of Americans to socialism could not have been accomplished without the aid of the American media, and of our compromised government educational system. ____________________________________ Millions of Americans are presently being converted to the slavery of socialism, oblivious to what is happening to them, and those of us who are not so persuaded are perceived as enemies of the state. We who see the embrace of our countrymen's socialist, media-dominated corrupters cry out in frustration and protest. Alas, protesting for redress of grievances only becomes grounds for persecution.Those of us who still retain our loyalty to American values find ourselves in danger when standing up to the compromised masses who still believe they are Americans. Any resentment and hostility toward them can have the same demoralizing effect as standing up to an unreasonable spouse or child. Anger only empowers their unreasonableness, and can drive you crazy and place you in peril of conversion.Politically speaking, both the fascist left and right are mostly abused children who have taken on the identity of their hate objects, usually a pair of unrepentant, brutal parents. Vowing never again to be victims, they are driven to seek the "safe" parental authoritarian power.Governments posses the potential power of an all-powerful, untouchable parent to legally demoralize and degrade, to even license murder with impunity. The compromised are drawn to the promise of this potential, abandoning little chunks of their sovereignty as they rise in the bureaucratic ranks, until there's no real self left. If have a problem that you just can't seem to overcome, give Roy Masters a call. He would be glad to help. Roy councils people on everything from marriage problems and raising children, to faith and finding true religion. If you have ever wondered why people in power make such dumb decisions, it is because they have abandoned the common values of decency in exchange for personal power. Once power is tasted, it becomes addictive and compels the individual to become more ruthless for the sake of that power. The American left seek the security of that untouchable dictatorship of parental power. Before that can happen, with the help of the infiltrated media, the present constitutional government has to be dismantled. Socialists (Fascists) would rather rule in hell than be servants in heaven; destruction and desolation is their creation. The evidence of socialist influence may be observed in America's inner cities. The failure of American schools is no accident—it is by design.Militant (Fascist) homosexuals have successfully used the Stockholm syndrome to bully psychiatric science into accepting their perverse behavior as normal. That opened the door to attain legal standing for their deadly lifestyle. Now they can now legally impose their obnoxious political agenda upon the rest us, claiming hate speech and discrimination upon encountering any resistance. Legally empowered to intimidate an entire population, especially vulnerable children in the school system, guarantees converts to their way of life.The driving force behind political power and acceptance is usually the compensation for inferiority and fear. Fear and inferiority drive victims to become the terror rather than remain the terrorized, all nice and legal. Before the actual political takeover of America can occur, the socialist fascist must have command of our values, which is accomplished by infiltrating the media and our universities.In William Shirer's book, "The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich," he described Adolf Hitler as a man monumentally intolerant by his very nature, yet strangely tolerant of one human condition -- a man's morals. No other party in Germany came close to attracting so many shady characters. Politics and, yes, even academe is fatally flawed with shady characters willing to give what's left of their soul in exchange for the "anointing" of authority.Battered WorldThe Stockholm syndrome describes a post-traumatic phenomenon of passengers, trapped in an airliner with terrorists, who experienced an altered state of consciousness. Stress had somehow created an unnatural sympathy for their tormentors, which persisted after their release. Since the dawn of history, tyrants have always instinctively understood the use of terror as a means of conversion. Intimidation demoralizes entire populations into submission. All tyrants know that hostility toward them creates that hypnotic bond of compulsive loyalty. With the help of the media, an entire nation will conform to the will of one single individual. Political intimidation is just a more sophisticated form of the pressure found in all too many homes.Patty Hurst, heiress to the famed San Francisco newspaper conglomerate, is an interesting example of the Stockholm syndrome. Kidnapped, raped and tortured by the rebel Syndinese Liberation Army, Patty Hurst felt that perverse affection for her captors that bound her to a life of crime for the approval of her corrupters.Upon being rescued, she was questioned as to why she robbed banks and behaved contrary to her nature, noting that she could have easily walked away at one point. She replied that she didn't want to believe she could be compelled against her will. This is precisely the same kind of feeling of obligation everyone feels under pressure, excused as an "I don't want to hurt their feelings" kind of thing.In our personal lives, pressure awakens in us that same compulsion to comply with what is demanded of us, but we end up going along, because our feelings have always told us what to think. Therefore, whoever can make us think emotionally can make what they want appear to be what we want. At that point, conscience is no longer sovereign and holds sway over our lives. To one degree or another, we all give in to our feelings, believing that it is unnatural to deny them. Our philosophy becomes warped to think that it is even unspiritual to deny ourselves. Most people think: Do what feels good, or what relieves the pressure.Adolf Hitler came to power by the way he made people feel. He politically empowered demoralized people to demoralize other people. By making a virtue out of rage, he amplified the anger of the mob, which allowed him to project his will through the expression of their violence. As the result, Germany became a nation of soulless victims-turned-victimizers, weak before the strong and strong before the weak, all passing glorifying power up to one man at the top—Adolph Hitler. When the country ran out of victims, Nazi Germany, acting as cells of one individual body, began to plunder their neighbors for slaves, just as individuals do in a family, school, and work environment. The Socialist's power structure is always threatened by the natural resistance of freedom-loving people. Totalitarian power is godlike and absolute; no one must be allowed to escape. Everyone must conform.Crave despotsA typical example of how the despotic kind of sympathy can manipulate through amplified rage towards others is the "complaining to the lady next door" principal. People who are wrong and guilty always seek sympathy and support from others. A certain woman had a big fight with her husband. She had purchased a fur coat with the rent money. Instead of being reasonable about it when her husband found out, she became angry and defensive, and promptly ran crying with an altered account of the story to the divorcee next door.Instead of making things better, the sympathy merely inspired more angry feelings of self-righteousness toward the husband. As she became more intractable, and her home life deteriorated, back she went to the lady next door for assurance that she was right. As the wife became more unreasonable, she also became more dependent upon being consoled. It would be a long time before the wife would ever realize how her life was being ruined while she was being manipulated by her friend, who enjoyed the power she needed to fill her own empty, ruined life.This is exactly the same principal that Adolf Hitler used to control the discontent in Nazi Germany, and why American blacks continue to live so wretchedly. The greater the sympathy inspired, the more sympathy is required. All of the so-called "downtrodden" are loyal to the political party of sympathy, setting the stage for chaos, revolution and the emergence of a strongman dictatorship. It should be noticed that abusive women make excellent concentration camp commanders, very much the way they are in their own homes.Manipulating black prideThis man/woman relationship is the breeding ground of misery and suffering which perpetuates an atmosphere of Father loathing, setting up all men to become projections of contempt. A noble man who can't be changed or manipulated is a very dangerous threat to the malevolent spirits of every woman and her political operatives. The collective "lady next door principal" calls up out of hell that familiar compassionate dictator, who knows how to masquerade as a friend to break up the family, take charge of the wife and children, and direct the nation's rage toward the innocent with wicked, lying rhetoric.Would-be dictators are presently manipulating the black community in America. Socialist liberal "sympathetic" operatives are sowing discontent, destroying the home lives of black men, disenfranchising them from their family and country, and turning them violently against what could be the good life of freedom in America.Troubled victims are addicted to consolation, and always see the true friend as the enemy and the enemy as the friend rising to the occasion of their needs. Leftist operatives intend to manipulate the discontent they nurture in blacks as a battering ram to destroy the freedom we have in America.Remember the principal: those who hunger for power have no tolerance for freedom and individuality. It is no accident that one out of three black man between 15 and 45 years of age are either in jail or out on parole. The reason why America is not yet overcome is because the numbers of angry blacks are not large enough to create a revolution and overpower "whitey". They make no mistake about it that the obstacle to Third World dictatorship is the Judeo-Christian ethic. Especially targeted for extinction is the White Anglo-Saxon male who represents, for better or worse, the more noble aspects of Western culture.Tyranny, the man-hating spiritThe abused woman projects a family atmosphere that produces two kinds of man-hating females: one submissive, and the other, an outright bully toward men, especially with her own male offspring. You should be familiar with the perpetuation of male violence through the submissive female role; however, male violence also is perpetuated by the bully woman who chooses a weak, limp-wristed, submissive husband. This kind of wife is as bad, if not worse, a bully as any man can be. The net result is that she creates the next generation of submissive sons. As a man, the boy marries a "fe-man"—a violent, masculine wife who bullies her daughter into escaping from that mother to what seems to be a strong husband, but who turns out to be the spirit of her cruel mother. On the other hand, her angry, violated son grows up to be that woman-abusing man—a vicious cycle.So you see, the perpetuation of all cultures is centered upon, and perpetuated through, the female. Manipulators instinctively understand this principal. Male loathing is passed on from generation to generation from mother to daughter, and also to their sons. There does not exist a woman ever born who can control her inherited behaviors. What every woman desperately needs is a noble man who will not become her projection. One reason good men are difficult to find is implied in this story; the other is that they are dangerous to women in denial and to the goals of ambitious, wicked politicians in power.Export the contagionLong before the Berlin Wall fell, this writer predicted that the Soviets intended to turn the Cold War defeat into victory. The Russian strategists calculated that the indoctrinated East Berliners would carry their contagion with them when they were "freed" to the West. Resolute individuals fleeing from despotism stand a chance of recovering their individuality in an environment in freedom. But when the Berlin Wall fell, the sluice gates of hell were opened, and an entire population of the indoctrinated inundated Democratic West Berlin. You see, freedom in some cases is not free. Very few can escape from what is lurking in them, awaiting the next opportunity to take root, as with the abused woman and her next family. The escape to freedom of just one single person threatens the entire socialist system of power. No one must be allowed to discover, and possibly undo, what has been done to them. No one must be allowed to survive to shine a way for others to follow.To see this principle at work again we need only to revisit the saga of Elian Gonzales, the six-year-old whose mother drowned helping him escape from Cuba. Can you see why Dictator Fidel Castro did not allow Elian's father to remain in America without that entourage of psychiatrists and politicians? Can you also see why Castro sent Elian's classmates to be with him while the court settled his relatives’ plea for asylum? It was the same as bringing the whole country of Cuba over to secure the father's loyalty, by providing the presence of the familiar conditioning to reawaken and restore Elian's allegiance to communism.Surrounded by Shaggy GodsThe terror of an abusive family or school predisposes us to elect dictators. Anything intimidating can take over that role. One does not need to be a psycho-political manipulator to have control over others; your pet cat can do it, and even your spoiled brat can control you. For example: One day your cat walks between your legs, trips you and you fall. Angry and upset, you begin to feel guilty. Then, compensating for the harm you think you've done to your pet (you really haven't—it is the anger that causes the guilt), you generously give it a bowl of milk. Comforting your angry frustration and slavish devotion with meows of approval, your entourage of pets encourages both your frustration and your cat-pleasing behavior.Animal saviors provide the delusion of worth that sugarcoats an unconscious cesspool of guilt and anxieties. In other words, wherever one finds eccentric "animal lovers", there too will you find benevolent creature tyrants. Shaggy dogs becomes shaggy Gods—so much beloved, in fact, that eccentrics often leave their entire estates to their pets. If a pet can become a tyrant, then why not your kids? After all, they are surely smarter manipulators than animals.Spoiled rotten children can become despots exploiting their parent's inherent weakness for servitude. All the little brats need do is to yell, scream, frustrate and never be satisfied with what is done for them. The emotional scene created by children who want their own way becomes legislation by hysteria in Congress. Those who want their away with us, whether it is the fascism of the left or the right, is never conducted in a calm, thoughtful environment. The media understands the technique of creating an emotional atmosphere to turn the voters away from the right choice of a Democratic Republic to a socialist order of things. Legislation by hysteria is preceded by election by hysteria. In other words, the wrong people get power to make laws, public and foreign policy, favoring the kissing cousins of despotism. Religion is no angel when it comes to mind-control conversion."Hell, fire and damnation" preachers, standing unholy in the place of the holy, snare their flocks by putting in them the "fear of the Lord." Those crafty old goats turn their gullible, approval-seeking addicts from the true object of worship of Father God to a false sense of security, dependant upon the ministering angels and his "Mother Church." Political brainwashing is not just limited to politics. The ritual use of a venomous serpent is yet another example of terror creating pseudo love and devotion. The ominous presence of a snake tends to strike terror in the heart, but something in the creatures spirit can also evoke admiration and fascination. While all over the world there are the different gods, snakes, rats, idols and their worshipers, the principle remains constant for every person of the every race, color and Creed that ever walked the earth. Creature worshipers are compelled to elect the God of their recreation and conversion in order to perfect and to complete the false sense of worth of their implanted, imperfect being. Homage to the creature spirit is experienced as glorifying honor to the devotedly grateful dead.The Dracula principleAllow me to describe the Stockholm syndrome in the way that is more familiar to you. The mythical vampire Dracula, upon biting his victim, drinks their life blood and at the same moment plants his identity inside them. Immediately, the implanted identity craves/loves validation for its new self, but is obliged to give more life blood in exchange for it. There is, in the victim, a dichotomy of longing and loathing. When all the life has been drained out of her body, she dies and is reborn as the undead, bloodsucking vampire. Does this sound familiar, and does it not apply in a similar way to your own life with your abusers?Being violated by intimidation is the same as being bitten and taking on the identity of the violator. Child molesters, robbers, and murderers have all been bitten; they have all died and have become born-again vampires taking a perverse pleasure in feeding from their victims, who in turn die and become born-again vampires, until an entire nation becomes death-centered with a chief political vampire presiding over all. From the smallest indiscretion to the most heinous crime, we all excuse our impulses, taking them to be (until serious conscience kicks in) the right and good thing to do. Always, any willful resistance (resentment) against our impulses feeds the problem, and sooner or later we end up giving in to whoever and whatever we struggle against. All those who excuse and indulge in their failings are also apologists for their tyrants.The reason why you give in not only to your tyrants, but also to your weaknesses, is because the moment you see the aggravating fault, you become threatened. The observation of the mere memory of your sins threatens your image, intimidating you for the absolution of acceptance. Of course there is never any relief, because the light of Conscience illuminates the "the vampire nature." Again and again we cringe in denial and seek comfort in "Dracula's embrace."There is no escape—you will react to the tyrant that got into you exactly the same way you reacted to it in the world. Therefore, if you continue to be upset with your (intimidating) problem, it becomes worse. The surrender to the tyrant without becomes the capitulation to its pleasure within. Your tyrant no longer has to be physically present; the Phantom tyrant can control you from beyond the grave.Being upset gives us one of two very bad choices: to give in to the tyrant, become one ourselves and take it out on others, or, to push those feelings down and go about superficially doing the "right thing." Repressed emotion can cause mental, emotional and physical disease, and God forbid, driven by thoughts of suicide, to do the unthinkable. The truth of the matter is that few of us have any real self—we only think we know who we are. Furthermore, no manipulator in his wrong mind is about to awaken his sleepwalking servant.To illustrate the point: you are trying to break a habit, and you are doing pretty well. One day you are sitting in a train, or perhaps a restaurant, and some thoughtless person who should have been sitting in the non-smoking section lights up a cigarette. Irritated at this obnoxious person for ignoring the "no smoking" sign, you suddenly get the impulse to smoke, and smoke you do. Presto, the Stockholm syndrome revisited.Forty-seven years of research and counseling has provided me the knowledge of what all these mentally disturbed tyrants are doing, as well as how to drive a stake in their heart, defeat their purpose, and of course to save your life. The dilemma I have to face in trying to help people is knowing that it is much easier to put people to sleep, and keep them asleep, than to awaken the masses to the folly of their ways. The perception of reality that keeps people in perpetual denial is provided by the seductively comforting media propaganda.Do you see now how the perpetuation of one single wrong response, that of resentment toward intimidation, precedes the eventual loss of all self-determination and political democratic sovereignty? Every time you are upset, your entire future changes. Every time you are intimidated and upset, emotion separates you from self-determination and Hill Billy Mitchell (8/17/2000; 11:04:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 35075) @ RS (08/16/00; 14:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 35039) Sir you are welcome. When one puts out much effort to communicate one's thoughts for the benefit of others, one does need to know that one is appreciated.To Ari the smooth and articulate one, Peter the Great, Aragorn III the man with the golden voice, Leigh the peacemaker, SteveH the Libertarian who gives, ORO the genius, Journeyman the one who really knows, Cavan Man the uplifting one, CoBra(too) the self-professed old man who knows too much to enjoy the future but is young enough to give a darn, TownCrier the one who gets things done, Canuck the man who perceives reality, Black Blade the one who loves the battle, elevator guy who recognizes the truth, Gandalf the White the Pure in Heart, The Stranger who sticks to the facts, RS who inspired this post, and Michael in whom there is no guile. Thank you for sharing. One cannot do this without leaving some out, please forgive.HBM Hill Billy Mitchell (8/17/2000; 11:01:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 35074) @ Cavan Man (08/16/00; 15:45:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 35042) Your question: - "the acreage is $2K per, are you suggesting $300 silver and $20K gold? Also, a combination of good, farmable land with water and timber is preferable to all those trees no?"My non-response:You may trust your sixth sense as I note that you still do the math. I have some PHD friends who would not think to do the math as you have done.I must wait to answer those two questions. I knew they were coming. I have my personal answers but it must wait. I find these posts quite exhausting and do want to do your questions justice when I give my answers. Leigh is waiting for another promised response still. I be mighty slow, I know.RegardsHBM Hill Billy Mitchell (8/17/2000; 10:55:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 35073) @ SteveH (08/16/00; 13:41:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 35037) Thanks for the compliment.Your post:A realtor friend in my neck of the woods told me the other day that the real estate market was changing. He said that people couldn't afford to service the debt for some of the higher priced homes anymore. He said they were all carrying too much credit card debt. A home in my neighborhood just sold for $19K under what they asked and that was under $10K what I paid for mine two years ago.It would be nice if more on the forum would share real day to day experiences as we travel along this trail. It will help burn off the fog which is obscuring our view.HBM USAGOLD (8/17/2000; 10:31:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 35072) Off the Beaten Track. . . http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html DAILY COMMENTARY (8/17/00) www.USAGOLD.com . . . Gold meandered early in the aftermath of yesterday's solid run-up. Gold has been firm over the past week or so on strong physical demand internationally, inflation concerns and a massive short position which implies future purchases to cover. Since it's a quiet morning as we await tomorrow's trade imbalance number and the associated market tragedies it might induce, I thought I'd pass along a couple pieces of information interesting and off the beaten track -- snippets nagging to see the light of day. First, there is this enlightening scorecard on our Fed chairman, Alan Greenspan, published as a letter to the Financial Times and coming to us via the venerable Grant's Interest Rate Observer. The author is Rob Lee who identifies himself as Consultant Economist to the Board of Executors:"It is a striking and alarming fact that the chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve seems far more interested in technology than money and credit. In his last 10 speeches -- to a variety of audiences on a number of topics -- he used the words 'money, credit, debt and leverage' 30 times. Money was only mentioned once, and money supply not at all. In contrast the three words technology, productivity and innovation were used 281 times."Those of you who receive our newsletter, News & Views, might find the theme implied familiar. We start the August letter with a critique on the Keynesian notion that productivity is the best antidote to inflation -- a theory seemingly now embraced wholeheartedly by the Fed chairman. Our point was that this highly extolled, widely prayed for, and clearly dubious theory begins to wobble under the pressure of rising oil prices -- something by the way at play in this morning's markets as crude posts a nearly 75¢ gain. James Grant, the Observer's editor, agrees by the way, registers similar doubts: ". . .we observe productivity registered some excellent annual gains in the late 1960s, early '70s, just as the Bretton Woods monetary system was about to slip its moorings, float out to sea and sink under the waves of international monetary imbalance and price inflation."Then we got this mini-study from the World Gold Council written by their portfolio analyst Richard Scott Ram, which despite its short length we actually found to be pleasantly thorough. Its title is "Comparing Gold to Treasury Bills." In short he makes the following points clearly demonstrating gold a better disaster hedge than T-Bills (the result of some detailed research) His points are italicized. My comments are in plain type:1. Gold is more negatively correlated to equities than U.S. Treasury bills -- meaning of course that when the bubble bursts gold is the better portfolio hedge. 2. Unlimited upside price potential for gold especially during stress period. T-bills of course are limited "to its price at maturity," as Mr. Ram tells us. Then of course you have the problem of the value of the dollar returned to you at the time of maturity. With inflation the word on every investor's lips these days, this not a minor consideration.3. T-Bills are exposed to Credit (Sovereign Risk) in which Mr. Ram makes a statement you would never hear on CNBC. "The United States," he says, "came close to technical default on its Federal debt both in 1987 and 1995.4. (Gold is an) Effective hedge against declines in real short term interest rates. The "I" (Inflation) word again. 5. Gold leasing can improve returns. (???) Though I understand the point Mr. Ram is trying to make that gold can generate an interest rate, given the attendant risks, I do not understand how a prudent steward of one's assets can justify what amounts to making an uncollateralized gold loan at a less than 1%. Nor would I advise it. On the face of it, it seems a rather ridiculous proposition, though it doesn't seem to stop operators of third world central banks from jumping into the game. But then again these people usually don't have to answer to anyone -- until a revolution sweeps the government aside and the central bank governors with it. I would ask the World Gold Council one question: Does it truly endorse, officially that is, the leasing of gold to the bullion banks by private individuals knowing what leasing and the carry trade have done to the gold price, and what it could do to an uncollateralized private lender? Two words immediately pop to mind: "Hedge funds" and "Ashanti" -- two of the more notable credit risks taken on by the bullion bankers in recent years. 6. Highly liquid, near cash equivalent. No comment necessary. The point speaks for itself.All in all, though I disagree with Mr. Ram on one notable point, I consider this a fair comparison between T-Bills and gold. Gold comes out the clear winner. That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. See you back here tomorrow. We hope you like the addition of Live News to this page. We invite you to visit here frequently to keep up with the news on gold and the economy. Please e-mail your comments to the sitemaster@usagold.com. If you are looking for a source of news, commentary and analysis on gold and all that affects it, we invite you try a free trial subscription to our widely read monthly newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. We offer solid commentary in a rapid fire, no-nonsense, bullet format designed for busy people who want gold related news and opinion without the unnecessary fluff.Please call Marie at 1-800-869-5115 or click