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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/17/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Black Blade
(11/17/2000; 23:48:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 41675)
Vote Manipulation?
Peggy Noonan, former Ron Reagan speech writer and journalist for the WSJ, tonight reported that over 1000 absentee ballots from overseas were rejected. Most of these votes are from military people in third world nations. Many of these nations don't use dated post marks, I know as I occasionally work in such places. You most certainly won't hear the Dems crying about how everyones vote counts with regard to these ballots. Ms. Noonan also reported on how attorneys advised vote counters to look for indented, scratched, and otherwise marked ballots as long as they were for Gore, and to keep mum about the same type of markings that favored Bush. Personally, I think no matter who is elected, they will have to contend with being known as the next Herbert Hoover. The US market indices are looking rather sickly. The NASDAQ is in a severe bear market as it is off over 46% from it's high (never mind that the Wall Street drones claim it is only a correction). Cash is flowing only into big name and defensive stocks. This is not a real confidence builder. There are occasional Suckers' er Relief rallies that suck out the last few pennies from the pockets of the remaining believers. Pity the poor fool who is coronated on January 22, 2001. It does not matter if it is Dumb or Dumber, the winner is ultimately going to be the loser with a Hoover legacy. If the Republicans want to thrash the Dems in the next go around - then contribute to both Reps and Greens (to split the liberal vote). Look at what happened when Perot ran against Daddy Bush and Bubba Clinton. I have to admit, I enjoy the current mess and relish the thought of this going to the Senate and House for a resolution. I love it!
ThaiGold
(11/17/2000; 23:26:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 41674)
Nice Link to Florida's Latest Ballot Counts
http://www.msnbc.com/news/491409.asp
Bush leads by 760 votes
CERTIFIED:
BUSH: 2,910,492
GORE: 2,910,192
ABSENTEE*
BUSH: 1,057
GORE: 597
TOTAL
BUSH: 2,911,549
GORE: 2,910,789
Bush leads by 760 votes
*Overseas absentee ballots only with
65 of 67 counties reporting
Black Blade
(11/17/2000; 23:26:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 41673)
RE: ORO #41644
You never cease to amaze me. I certainly agree whole heartedly with your assessment on oil. I did not think of it exactly in the same way as you did, but you seem to put it together very well. I agree that oil is not likely to come down anytime soon. Drilling activity is only now beginning to ramp up to meet expected demand, though actual production increases from new wells are a long way off. No refiner wants to be holding inventory in this volatile market and is willing to take on supply as refining capacity permits, thereby ensuring a more certain steady cash flow and profit picture. To paraphrase and mangle the old Chinese curse, "Interesting times" lie ahead for anyone who depends on energy. Thanks again, Black Blade.
lamprey_65
(11/17/2000; 20:36:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 41672)
Several important points from today's Fleck -
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/insight/contrarian/index.gsp
"On borrowed time. . . In the recommended reading department, The New York Times carried a story today by Floyd Norris that details the woes of WorldCom CEO Bernie Ebbers and the dangers of borrowing against his stocks, something we've talked about in the past.
In another revealing story in the Times, it looks like Daimler now wants to get rid of its Chrysler acquisition, not unlike AT&T's (T) desire to get rid of Liberty Media. Some of the financial engineering that went on in the last few years is now starting to unravel. This is what the corporate finance guys do to corporations, in the same way the dead fish do it to individuals. Wall Street exists to make money for Wall Street, not for anyone else. That's a lesson we must always remember.
There was an interesting article in the "Heard on the Street" column in today's Wall Street Journal about George Gilder, who got a name for himself by proclaiming future winners. Apparently he was paid for sponsoring some of the same names.
In the used-to-be-obscenely-rich-now-maybe-still-rich department, there's another story in the Journal about Jay Walker of Priceline selling his first shares. He and Bernie Ebbers have found themselves with the same sort of problem.
Lastly, there's a story in the Journal that 47 percent of Janus's holdings are in tech and they don't want to sell. But they will, in my opinion, as the redemptions force their hand."
Cavan Man
(11/17/2000; 19:58:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 41671)
Farfel
There are many people in this country who feel exactly as you declaim. I must say, I completely agree with your sentiments. On the other hand, many people sit opposite the fence that divides popular opinion. The key to investing from this point forward is recognizing that there is indeed a fence. This fence rivals the Great Wall of China in size and scale.
This country is in deep doodoo. (IMHO)...CM
Farfel
(11/17/2000; 19:24:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 41670)
Democrats and Disenfranchising the American People
I think there is nothing more hysterical than listening to Al Gore speak about the importance of EVERY American's vote, and how the Democrats are striving to ensure that all American voices are heard via a hand count under the rule of law.
Who the fuck does he think he's kidding? I swear that listening to Democrat hypocrites is one of the most painful things any human must suffer in this world. Con artists, scamsters, and professional bullshitters...it is more than anybody can endure.
Hey, Al, if you were so concerned about the little guy and ensuring his voice be heard, then why did your entire party block Ralph Nader from adding his voice to the presidential debates? At the very least, couldn't the Democrats have used their clout on behalf of the little guy to make sure that Nader could attend the debates, if only as a spectator?
But, oh, no, the great Party of the little guy, the defenders of populist democracy, would not even allow Nader to enter the debate hall.
Well, who could blame them? If Nader had been involved in the presidential debates, he would have handily defeated both Gore and Bush. In the end, there would have been more than enough Democrats who would have defected from Gore to Nader. By default, Bush would have won with tens of thousands of extra since Nader and Gore would have divided the liberal vote.
But as I wrote sometime ago, the Democrats are champions of the Culture of Zero Personal Responsibility.
If they lose an election, then blame the vote procedure, NOT the candidate.
If they should lose the mail-in vote, then no doubt they will blame international post offices, and claim that expatriate Floridian half-wits were duped by international post offices into providing insufficient postage, thus resulting in thousands of "Return to Senders."
The litany of examples highlighting the Democrats' habit of perpetual victimization is endless, but one thing is for sure.
The Democrats do NOT stand for the little guy or blacks or jews or rednecks or techies or lesbians or whomever, they only stand for power at any cost, and that is the hallmark of a once reasonable, decent political party now ruled (and destroyed) by the Clintonites.
I should know, because several years ago, I once supported them.
Thanks
F*
SteveH
(11/17/2000; 18:59:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 41669)
Lot of subterfuge on them there channels
Regarding the election. I am watching for the decision on Harris's use of her discretion. The issue is and will be: did she abuse her discretion. I don't see how the court can second guess her on this. She was not arbitrary nor capricious. She will prevail (if not in FL) then back at the 11th Circut Fed. Court in Atlanta. IMNLO (in my non-lawyerly opinion).
wolavka
(11/17/2000; 18:56:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 41668)
listen up cowboys
BASTARD DOLLAR IS HOLDING GOLD HOSTAGE/ ELECTION.
TWO RANGES HIT 117.00 WHICH SHOULD BE TOP BUT 118.00 IS A SUCKERS RUN. SHORT THIS SUCKER FROM HERE.
GOLD IS MARKING TIME WITH SUPPORT AT 264 IN DEC BREAK OUT UP IS 267.
THE WORLD IS FULL OF LOSERS. hold gold here. end of story and no advice!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Christmas is christs' birthday!!!
Mr Gresham
(11/17/2000; 18:23:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 41667)
Doug Noland -- Credit Bubble Bulletin
http://216.46.231.211/credit.htm
A cheery bunch we are today...
(Given all that's happened, I think we're doing pretty well. thanks for all the news and clues shared here.)
ORO
(11/17/2000; 15:43:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 41666)
Prior post - "dirt"
Sorry for that math expression, it does not have much to do with the text, it was a leftover from the mathematical workout of the issues discussed in the text.
Just ignore it.
auspec
(11/17/2000; 15:42:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 41665)
What I Know About Algae
This place is so gloomy, with gold being down all of .10c, thought it might be time to embark on another esoteric topic......Algae {Al G}. This relates mostly to the wooden one, currently out of favor in Tennessee, but possibly returning there soon anyway, as Hollywood won't have HIM, Al Gore. It could in some ways also relate to another Al G, but I'm not yet stupid enough to lampoon our esteemed banking Chairman. Maybe next week. Besides he is a somewhat higher form of life. Randy @ The Tower has assured me that it is totally impossible and even more unlikely that the CIA, IRS, ATF, or the CFR geeks would ever be able to crack his intricate codes and discover this writer's true identity. I know he wouldn't pull my leg. THEY have been working on "outing" MK for over 25 years and still don't know which state he lives in. Thus I feel totally safe to speak my mind and elaborate on Algae to my fellow inmates.
OK, by now you're surely saying, if you have gotten this far, that poor auspec has gone over the edge {With Paula ZAHN, I wish} and hyperbabbles today, even for him. He speaks on an irrelevant topic w/o proper credentials. NOT SO!! This bloke is fully qualified to expound on the algae theme, as Peter Asher recently made me Chief of Staph on the Forum Ticket...... Having observed the US political process closely for the last 8 years, I do know "low lifes". This is a complex & challenging topic especially under our current extreme national circumstances. It is important that we all learn as much as possible about these key fellow life forms.
GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF ALGAE-
These organisms are extremely prevalent and are one of the simplest examples of life on Earth. They can exist as individual units but prefer to cluster together in like minded asseblages. It is hard to classify algae as they are part plant and part animal and are often considered to be, alongside bacteria, in the most primitive KINGdom, Monera. This is from which commeth the label Prince Albert. Many algae lack organs, much less backbones, but can be somewhat motile according to the size of their {non airbrushed} flagella. Algae can take on many different forms, and rare species of Al G can morph on an almost daily basis, trying to become all things to all people.
For you non-science readers, some common algae are pond scums, stonewarts, and seaweeds. They can be soft and gelatinous as well as stoney and hard, should we say petrified. They at times exist in loose filmy conglomerations {AFLCIO, trial lawyer, and Trilateral types} like seaweed. It is sort of the "Village" concept. They will not thrive when exposed to the light of day, and are known to stay in the shadows for 8 or more {hopefully} years. Without proper containment algae are opportunistic, and having an incredible predeliction for growth, would take over the whole world, a sort of political kudzu. These unusual critters love dirt and can be quite slimy, especially when seeking the highest orifice in the land. Algae prefer to associate with and support other critters such as themselves.........."He is one of our greatest fungi ever".
Do algae reproduce? Yes, unfortunately, they do, and they do have a highly unusual "dance" especially when in front of an audience. What is the purpose of algae? They are typically gaseous dreamers that like to invent things that are not new, and take credit where none is due. In spite of these efforts most of these dreams and the Al G themselves end up as part of fertilizer. Can algae be dangerous? YES! They are at times parasitic and can put off powerful toxins, even causing rashes and facial boils on other higher evolved {created} species they contact. They can also smother you and confuse you almost on a Daley basis.
Still with me? Congratulations to both of you. They will likely take away my posting privileges after this one. Cheer up and pray for sunshine. Can you imagine me doing this for four more years?????
auspecfully yours
ORO
(11/17/2000; 15:25:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 41664)
BlackBlade - 2-2.5 = -0.5
CL01Z /NYMEX:CL00Z -NYMEX:CL00Z /NYMEX:CL00Z
The current uploading situation at the Iraqui terminals has essentially dropped the Iraqi supply expected for the next couple of weeks to near 0. This has, in essence, put the squeeze on the oil market - undoing the benefits of both OPEC oil production increases and the SPR release. OPEC production increases are in the market since June-July when cheating on quotas caused production to reach the levels currently stated by OPEC. The SPR oil release had the effect of pushing oil from export to the US into Europe since the US oil processors do not want to hold inventory that has increased in cost multifold - the cost of inventory being the product of volume in inventory, the short term interest rate and the price of oil. The oil price has increased 3 fold since the March 99 bottom. The interest rate on short term debt has gone up by 2% (in effect adding 30% to interest costs on oil company commercial paper) Thus causing a 4 fold increase in the cost of maintaining oil in inventory.
Thus the markets have been supplied from US inventory after being supplied from now empty Asian inventories in 1997-99. The New refining capacity in Singapore, coupled with the halt in inventory dumping by Asian refineries and oil companies has reversed a probable 2 million BPD in the supply picture - bringing Asian inventory effects from a possible supply of 1 million BPD to a draw of 1 million BPD.
Adding the two sets of effects together, there has been a net draw on supplies by the recent Iraqi action sufficient to kill off the effects of all the OPEC quota increases.
It has been rumored,that in preparation for a possible future halt in crude exports, the Iraqis had bought futures through French banks and will recoup much of the lost revenue from stoppage of oil revenue from supply by seeing prices of their futures contracts rise. So far, the strategy of buying one long term oil future when seling one contract's worth on the spot market has provided a 50% annual return over the price realized at spot due to the heavy discount of the market for far out futures. That would make possible a replacement of all oil revenue lost because of a fall in oil exports with capital gains in futures.
Besides this, the presumed Iraqi oil price speculation, their escrow account had accumulated to such a point that they could very well forego oil income for a few months even without such a strategy.
So, putting this all together, we have a supply increase of 4-5 million BPD (MBD) as a result of OPEC quotas rising, and we have a -2 MBD swing in inventory contribution from Asia and a -2.5 MBD possible supply cut from Iraq for the markets to contend with, and a +1 MBD Strategic Petroleum Reserve supply, that has resulted in 1 MBD inventory reduction in US refinery inventory contribution making way for the SPR oil. Together, these have an impact of near 0.
However, demand has grown 2 MBD in Emerging Markets since the March 99 bottom and up 3.3 MBD (or 10%) from the peak Asian inventory dumping period of Dec 97-Jan 98. This would result in a net gain of 2 MBD in demand - which is being satisfied by inventory reduction and by demand restraint by the industrialized world, where Europe had accumulated oil at a 1 MBD rate at the price bottom, and has restricted demand by 0.3 MBD relative to 98-99 levels. The US has had flat demand since prices started rising in 99, due mostly to inventory reductions.
It should be noted that the US data on the trade deficit had improved for the prior quarter by $8 billion completely due to a steep drop in oil imports equivalent to 250-300 Barrels at annualized rates. This is like a 2.5-3 MBD supply as far as price impacts on the international oil markets since mid-summer 2000. Without this supply, the markets would have had a net shortage of 2 MBD or worse, and prices would have gone up over $40 at spot already. The supply displacement from by the SPR and inventory reductions will fall soon as SPR inventories will not be tapped more than once more at these prices, and the replacement terms for the SPR supply will limit the downside during the Spring bottom in US demand, when refining inventory will be rebuilt.
Remember that supply and demand differences come out of or into inventory. Inventory is a speculation on future spot prices as well as performance by the crude oil processor and his customers and suppliers. Price effects in the spot markets and futures markets are affected differently. The spot markets drain or fill inventories, while the paper markets balance expectations of future demand and future supply on a production/consumption basis, where inventories have only an indirect effect as the processors and producers hedge inventories and production. Processors hedging their inventory reductions would tend to reduce the price impact of the supply from inventory.
In terms of price behavior, the markets reward the seller of inventory during shortage by allowing her to replace inventory at hand that is sold at spot with a futures contract to replace it at a lower cost. The difference is reflected in the relative prices of the far out futures contracts relative to near spot contract (active month). Comparing 1 year contracts for current month and one year forwards, the market has progressively added to the rewards offered the inventory holder from the 1999 oil price bottom. In 1999's bottom, there was no reward for emptying inventories, and futures contracts traded on a par with each other, having a difference equivalent to the cost of funds (a.k. no-arbitrage contango conditions). Since then, the arbitrage premium disappeared in May 99, allowing a 6% return on inventory sales vs. buying futures. As prices grew at spot markets around the globe, the reward offered the inventory seller went up to a peak of 30% (including interest benefit) and have remained at the 25%-30% range since then.
This is substantially above the average corporate return on equity levels (according to Standard and Poors and Barra data) and is even above the peak levels from Q4 1999 - Q1 2000. This is a market move that indicates a substantially above average payoff offered by the markets to any who reduce the draw on inventory - whether it be by drilling for future production supply, or by replacing demand with an alternative.
This shift in industries where the markets are offering greater returns, is coming at the expense of the returns on Information Technology investment - which reduces inventory and labor costs; both of which have a high oil content, and which were financed with the excess cash flow that was then available and was expected to come in future as a result of the enhanced margins between higher final goods prices relative to producer goods including labor (a.k.a. profits of business). The main reducer of costs, was the import of intermediate and finished goods from abroad at low prices and then at fire-sale prices resulting from a financial squeeze in the dollar debt market abroad. The IT investment merely reduced the costs of stocking, assembling, moving, marketing, and retailing these imports, while doing very little to reduce the actual production costs (including rendering services). This is because physical manufacturing industry had finished deploying its IT investments some 10 years ago - after over 2 decades of investment in computer controlled or assisted inventory management, production, design, machining, and processing.
Rising oil prices and the halt in the drop in prices of other commodities (and slight rise in their prices) are the result of supply and demand strains. On the supply side, the lack of investment in production capacity for these items over the last few years in particular, and in the last two decades in general. The main demand driver of the rise in commodity prices is a result of Western (particularly US) consumption increases - not in terms of dollars - but in terms of goods volumes. This greater Western import volume requires that the exporters purchase the base commodities that go into these exports, plus a sufficient amount to allow the increased consumption that would induce local labor to move into the production of these exports from their prior activities.
Thus the markets have made the production of commodities, particularly oil, far more attractive than the import and retailing of products made from them. The profitability of intermediate sectors of the economy that act between the extraction of resources and their sale to consumers has fallen substantially over the past year as inventory and labor savings could no longer be extracted from further IT investment. As a result, IT investment is no longer growing because of the lack of cash flow growth from its consumers (these intermediate industries), and the lack of a profit expectation from the utilization of these IT products. Because of the drop in the returns of IT, commercial purchases of IT equipment fell relative to those of consumers, who benefited from lower competition from commercial purchasers. The consumer level buyers of IT are now reaching saturation in the West, particularly in the US, and prices must fall to the level that allows Emerging Market commercial buyers and consumers to purchase them - something on the order of 1/3 their initial dollar price. This must decimate the future earnings of IT companies and move what is left of the American IT industry to the future growth markets in Asia, Eastern Europe, and South America.
In the meantime, the markets are bringing back corporate profitability to its equilibrium levels from which the Emerging Market crisis caused a favorable disruption, and bringing rewards to those who would invest in new oil and other commodity production, where the world's current bottleneck has appeared. During this period where intermediate industries lose their profits, investment in intermediate production will dry up and will cause a reduction in future free production capacity (including that of services) worldwide. Some years down the road, the costs of products will be influenced by both the lack of commodity production capacity on top of the lack of intermediate production capacity.
Prices are going to remain in an upwards trajectory for a while, quite a while.
John Doe
(11/17/2000; 14:13:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 41663)
More on the probabilities surrounding the rotting fish smell coming out of Florida...
http://www.allegedfraud.com
"The Democrats are caught red handed, or is it the Republicans?
"There are statistical anomalies in the original vote tally in Florida that would seem to indicate serious voter fraud. Of the three possible scenarios, two indicate Gore fraud, one indicates Bush fraud, all can easily be proved or disproved in a few hours. Consider the following:
"1) How could Pat Buchanan get such an unusually high volume of votes above the expected number?
"2) What is the probability that there were so many double punched ballots?
"3) How could a 94% of voters in Florida's African American precincts voted for Gore which is significatntly above the national averages?
"Don't let them touch the Palm Beach ballots!...
beesting
(11/17/2000; 10:20:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 41662)
Thank You Sir Pandagold msg. # 41591
Great insight into the English perspective concerning the,at some future time, Euro....Pound....merger.
Yes, some of us here in the U.S. try to keep our, eyes,ears, and minds open to all future possibilities.The postings of Trail Guide,ANOTHER, and the many others at the top of this page have given us readers unmeasurable insight.Thanks to all!!!
As one who still remembers personally the hard times suffered during the second World War,(In New England our family was cold,hungry, and snowed in during the winter of 1943, not a pleasent experience.)
Something not discussed here since the worries of Y2K subsided are precautionary survival measures during, what can be severe winters,or times of severe stress. So, besides storing Gold(used in a financial emergency worldwide) our family also stores all other essentials.
Since many live payday to payday "IF" the trucks(Lorries) stop rolling for an extended period(no fuel'snowed roads, or whatever) many in the U.S. may be in big trouble, as many in the current "dumbed down" population don't know how to grow,can, or store essentials.
The U.S. is the entertainment capitol of the world! Entertainment doesn't provide food, shelter, or clothing, for the masses, it's provided to distract the minds away from the mundane thoughts of survival of the fittest.To me elections fall into the entertainment catagory,,,interesting,,, but doesn't pay the bills.
Storage of Gold,,maaay,,,at some time in the future be called upon to buy essentials.
Those in the Know are Buying...Gold!....beesting.
wolavka
(11/17/2000; 9:51:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 41661)
grains
go grains!!!
wolavka
(11/17/2000; 9:32:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 41660)
justice is served
little man in canoe sways election.
JavaMan
(11/17/2000; 8:29:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 41659)
http://news.excite.com/news/r/001117/10/news-election-leadall-dc
Less bad news...
wolavka
(11/17/2000; 7:50:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 41658)
watch
swiss franc
Galearis
(11/17/2000; 6:52:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 41657)
@Canuck
Your intruder discouragement system...
Might even bag you the odd deer as a bonus (smile).
Pandagold
(11/17/2000; 6:09:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 41656)
The Truth is out there
In the X-files, there is a catch saying (is it by Tully?) "The truth is out there". Well, I don't watch the program; it lost its appeal after the first few episodes. But there is much in that statement if one doesn't confine it to ET's: UFO's or the paranormal. This is why, at the end of my last contribution, I said I hoped I had encouraged you to step back from the canvas and see the picture as a whole.
As I read the various contributions to our subject (the ones that stay reasonably on course) on this and similar sites, I see so many hooking on, and concerning themselves far too much with, the small daubs on the canvas. Even the greatest of masterpiece is made up of lots of individual brushstrokes, which, if you focused on them instead of trying to see what the artist is trying to accomplish, you could, perhaps, be forgiven for doubting his ability and. possibly sometimes, his sanity.
It is important, therefore, if you wish to understand, you see everything in perspective, and only when each part is seen as to how it relates to the whole does it even begin to make sense.
It is the same with a great piece of music; each individual note only has meaning when you are able to comprehend where it is leading. If the pianist played only one note, or chord, at a time, leaving quite a space between them, they would not make much melodic sense. Only when you see how they fit in to the whole do they.
Once you are able to allow your mind to open up to where you can see into the mind of the composer, or artist, and see the brushstrokes, or notes as parts of a whole, in other words, get into their heads, then you can begin to see where the next brushstroke will be, and colours that will be used, or, where the next chord will come and how it will sound. Always, of course, allowing yourself room for the odd surprise.
So it is with what is going on in the world. There IS a big picture, and you need to see it. You will understand gold, silver, stock markets, currencies, politics, trouble spots, much more when you see them as, mainly, brushstrokes on the canvas, or notes of a great symphony.
Perhaps I haven't chosen the best analogy, maybe it is all a little too profound, I don't know. But if you are starting to THINK, to relax your mind and let it connect to the ether, where lies all the knowledge of the ages, then that is something. As the saying goes – ‘The truth is out there’. But, as with a TV, or radio, you hear and see nothing, unless you are switched on and tuned in.
Black Blade
(11/17/2000; 4:46:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 41655)
Iraq cancels Dec crude sales to customers refusing to pay premium
Source: Bridge News
London--Nov. 16--Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization has canceled the sale of crude in December to European customers who have refused to pay a premium over official selling prices into a bank account outside United Nations' control, Iraqi crude contract holders said Thursday. Some European contract holders who have refused to pay the premium said they are covering this shortfall with spot crude purchases. The UN said it was unaware whether the request, which would violate sanctions, had been made formally.
Black Blade: Saddam's getting a bit testy. The Europeans not only have to pay for higher priced oil along with outrageous taxes, now Saddam is trying to extract his pound of flesh as punishment for past sins. Also, if Gore and Lieberman get into the White House, some Arab producers won't be very amused. Gore is seen as pro-Israel, and Lieberman is Jewish. Bush and Cheney are seen as good ole’ boys with a hand in the oil biz’. Though Saddam wouldn't be too happy with junior in the White House either. This could get interesting.
Bonedaddy
(11/17/2000; 4:44:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 41654)
Maybe it ain't that bad
http://biz.yahoo.com/fo/001117/1117flint.html
Canuck, good security system. But, watch out for girl scouts selling cookies. Real Girl Scouts usually sell in September\October time frame. Any other time it could be a street gang in drag trying to get close enough to crash your front door. (Goateed Girl Scouts are a real danger sign.) Try keeping an 870 Remington with a Surefire light on the handguard stashed under a lamp shade near the front door. A 12Z Surefire is expensive, but bright enough to melt the chocolate off the little mint cookies and it's guaranteed to distroy their night vision for at least 5 minutes. While your guests are playing Stevie Wonder, you can use the time to either call 911 or peruse the cookie list, which ever applies.
Bloomberg TV was interesting this morning. A guest discussed the fact that 45% of all exectutive stock options were currently worthless. See the link above to find out about the shape Chrysler is in. They're talking plant closings now. By the time ALGORE takes the reigns, radio stations back east will be playing cuts from Springteen's old "Born in the USA" album.
" Foreman says these jobs are goin' boys,
and they ain't commin' back....."
wolavka
(11/17/2000; 3:41:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 41653)
U.S. politics
"Daddy, this election thing is like living in a coffin."
Why do they nail coffins shut?"
TO KEEP THE RATS OUT.
wolavka
(11/17/2000; 3:05:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 41652)
Idiots, imbeciles and Morons
These are the parties which foolishly play while the Black Plague plays its role.
Stay focused !!!!!!!!!!!!
Topaz
(11/17/2000; 1:36:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 41651)
The Aussie dilemma @ MK
G-day Michael,
If your assumption is correct re: Oz producer buy-backs, this could set the scene for some volatility in A$ volatility over the coming days.
If the Specs perceive a weakness in producer positions A$/Au, then pressure could be bought to bear on the "bleeder" yet again and a swift drop to mid-lo 40's is on the cards, however if this P/pos'n threatens to trigger wholesale buy-backs then the Short spec crowd would want to provide "relief" via a sharp run-up in the A$ to mid to high 50's.
Most interesting times.
Black Blade
(11/17/2000; 1:01:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 41650)
Au is stirring a bit tonight.
Could there be some producer hedge covering in Oz tonight? Au steadily rising tonight, though only up $1.25 since the NY close. PGM prices are down on unproven rumors of Russian deliveries. Simply put, they don't have any real stockpiles left, and only the grossly inefficient Norilsk Nickel has export licenses for any meaningful Pd supply over the next 10 years. The only Russkie PGM supplies will come from current by-product production. That's not much metal. Also there is likely to be a bit more internal industrial usage of Pd, Pt, and Rh.
Black Blade
(11/17/2000; 0:50:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 41649)
Time to revaluate investment portfolios?
The previous posts are articles from thebullandbear.com that really put the NG supply dyunamics in perspective. Without energy, there is no economy! Period! Now NG has reecently passed beyond $6.00Mbtu. It has fallen back due to some analysts who are spreading rumors that NG and oil will be in oversupply again soon. Not likely. Remember the higher prices for petroleum, NG, and electricity last summer in many parts of the country? A cold winter, and a toasty summer means only one thing - higher POO and NG! It was cheap energy that drove the economic miracle of the last few years, now the future doesn't look so rosey. Companies are posting earnings warning and often cite higher energy costs and the Euro. The analysts have no choice but to try to talk down petroleum. It only works temporarily. Petroleum prices are destined to increase and substantially so, and with it so goes the economy. Hard assets like PMs and Real Estate looke especialy good, and very profitable unhedged miners, Utes, and energy stocks look somewhat inviting as well. Way too many "New Economy" stocks went down the toilet recently. Look at what happened: There were the Dot.coms, then they were the Dot.bombs, and now most are Dot.gone.
- Black Blade
Black Blade
(11/17/2000; 0:34:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 41648)
Another "surprise" energy crisis is coming - excerpt
http://www.thebullandbear.com/resource/index1.html
by Robert Cardwell, editor Ground Floor
Reality bites hard and fast these days. We were going to predict some of the headlines for the coming months, including: "Republicans Bash Administration for Lack of Energy Policy," and "Dems Lash Bush-Cheney as Two Peas from the Oil Pod." But those stories have already been written.
We also intended to warn about the looming energy shortage's impact on the economy and corporate profits. But duPont beat us to the punch, announcing that higher fuel and other materials would put its results below already reduced expectations. Analysts rushed to downgrade other chemical and commodity-type companies.
The impact might well go beyond those stocks. Charles Maxwell, the dean of oil and gas analysts, thinks there's a good chance the government will have to allocate natural gas this winter. That means sending gas to hospitals, other public institutions, and private homes first, utilities second, and factories and offices last. The latter will have to shut down for a time if there's not enough gas to go around.
The energy situation finally is starting to get Wall Street's attention. If factories shut down, that will grab investors by the collar. So the usual November-April seasonal updraft for stocks could be interrupted if we get a cold winter. Major industrial companies likely would be hurt worst by fuel shortages, tech stocks and our micro-caps hurt least. And, of course, the energy producers and oil service companies would be beneficiaries. When you see headlines about factories being shut for lack of natural gas or fuel oil, that will be the time to start taking what we think will be substantial profits before the politicians talk too much about re-regulating gas prices.
But we are getting ahead of ourselves. What's the situation right now? As we write, we are seeing the first signs of anxious (not yet panic) buying. This was inspired, ironically, by OPEC's expected decision to increase oil output and the fact that crude oil went up in the face of that news. There's some confusion, but apparently the announced 800,000 barrel production increase wasn't that at all. The figure includes oil that the countries (mainly Saudi Arabia) already were pumping beyond previously announced quotas. One OPEC source made a statement to the contrary, but in any case, OPEC doesn't have much excess pumping capacity at present.
One Wall Street analyst recently issued a report warning that a "wall of oil" is on the water in tankers, ready to hit the market. This had been the prevailing view until quite recently. Now we see sentiment changing; the herd on the Street is beginning to think OPEC's production increases were too little and too late, at least for this winter. The same goes for President Clinton's just-announced plan to provide "emergency" supplies of heating oil. U.S. heating oil inventories are 38% below a year ago, and you may recall that there were shortages last winter. As for natural gas, the industry figures that we need at least 3 trillion cubic feet in storage by November to make it comfortably through the winter. At present, it looks as if we will start the heating season with about 2.5 trillion feet.
Certainly, judging by the futures market, the increased oil output has been absorbed by rising demand, particularly in Asia. This is what we expected to happen. Oil will always be volatile. Substantial new discoveries in Africa and Central Asia could ease the situation in the very long run, though steadily rising world population and industrialization will exert supply pressures at the same time.
We have long emphasized natural gas, whose fundamentals are even more favorable. There's no OPEC for natural gas. The only significant foreign source is Canada. Without the new Alliance Pipeline from northeast British Columbia to Chicago, the U.S. energy situation would be even more critical. Still, North American gas production has been about flat for the last decade, while demand grew 1.6% a year. That growth rate is projected to about double in the next decade due, among other factors, to clean-air regulations. Unless we want to go back to polluting coal-fired furnaces and generating plants, we'll have to burn gas and pay for it.
Black Blade
(11/17/2000; 0:29:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 41647)
Consumers should plan on paying 50% more to heat their homes this winter
http://www.thebullandbear.com/resource/index1.html
by Brian Van Horn
There has been such a demand on natural gas with summer, consumers must prepare to pay up to 50 percent more to heat their homes this winter. This comes on the heels of electricity woes this summer, when some consumers have been hit with electric bills up to three times that of previous summers. Twenty-four states have now opened up their electricity markets to competition in an era of deregulation. The problem is that the demand for electricity has been far greater than anticipated. There are far too few generating plants necessary to keep up with the interstate transmission network which was never designed for a deregulated world. The problem is complicated by the chaotic jigsaw rules and regulations of governing the transition from fixed prices to free pricing rules.
To increase electrical generation, many power plants have turned to the use of natural gas. Gas consumption has also risen, siphoning off inventories that normally would be going into storage. By the time winter arrives, inventory levels will be down 700 billion cubic feet. The August 14th issue of The Wall Street Journal says utilities are already warning customers that natural gas prices have doubled from a year ago and may not have peaked yet. The U.S. Department of Energy is warning that this will be the most expensive winter for heating since 1985. "Our expectation is for continued high prices," said a spokesman for the Department.
Volatility in natural gas prices is one of the reasons for the shortage. Two years ago gas was below $2 per MCF. Drilling and production was curtailed by the lack of profitability. Bob Morris of Salomon Smith Barney said it would take at least 800 gas rigs to get deliverability in line with demand. Currently, the rig count is 634 rigs. As reported in the July issue of the Oil & Gas Investor, most analysts expect natural gas prices to remain above $3.50 per thousand cubic feet. With the current hot weather throughout the Southwest, air conditioners are sapping up the natural gas that normally would be going into storage. Raymond James of R. James & Associates, says we can expect to see prices spike this winter.
The likelihood of fuel switching is almost non-existent, since every other form of energy supply is also short. David Pursell, Vice President of Upstream Research for Simmons & Company International said, "If you're short of distillate and natural gas, your ability to switch over to a more abundant fuel is pretty much out the window." He added, "The world is not going to come to an end here. But this has the potential to have significant impacts on key industrial customers. They may find themselves curtailed and actually have to shut down operations." With natural gas already selling at $4.50 per million BTUs in some parts of the country, consumers are warned that customers using heating oil won't fare much better. Heating oil inventories are 12 percent lower than normal, and imports from Europe, which is a key source, are unlikely because of spot shortages there. Barring a miracle, only a warm winter can save customers from severe price spikes this winter.
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