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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 10/17/2000 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) justamereBear (10/17/00; 23:54:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 39271) Beesting 39270 Your Pete interests me greatly. I have a rather unusual hobby, and I have an interest in that context in the sort of ore that you describe. I would use them as bases for art objects. (hot glass sculpture.) I would be very interested in obtaining ore with small streaks of Au. They would have to be at least a foot in diameter, preferably 18 inches and no fractures so I could cut and polish them.Can we communicate off forum? I am at currie@mqcinc.comThanks. beesting (10/17/00; 23:32:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 39270) Some more on the Gold mining scheme that was discussed yesterday. Hi again Sir auspec,and thanks Chris Powell for the follow up and "ALL" the time consuming work you and Bill Murphy are doing for the Gold industry thru GATA.auspec My Friend, in your 39257 msg. you stated that you have recently invested in a Gold mining company that trades for .16C per share.Ask yourself this question, with proven Gold assets, WHY is the share price so low?My answer; Partly because of the low POG but "MOSTLY" because of heavy financing of some kind(hedges, etc.).When a potential investor looks at a company, and I don't care what product their producing, he/she looks at assets,future potential assets, and liabilities(real debts). Does a little math and tries to figure if there will be a profit from operations. If there is a profit and the company increases assets with the profits the share price should rise, as the shares are now worth more than before.My example with Pete's mine yesterday should "RAISE" the assets of the mine by a 9 to 1 ratio every time new Gold is purchased and added to existing assets,therefore raising the "VALUE" of the mine and the shares, in the case of Gold,real wealth, not paper wealth.Another way to put it, investors have sunk .10 of every dollar into a bonified Gold mine and .90 of every dollar into "REAL" wealth, Gold, which has a value in every currency in the world.If the price of Gold ever rises the price value of the mine and shares would rise accordingly. Are any Gold miners reading? Sir auspec, ANY EXISTING GOLD MINE CAN RAISE THE VALUE OF THE MINE SIMPLY BY ADDING THE($) VALUE OF UNSOLD GOLD, or bought Gold, to the total assets of the mine,and not giving it(Gold) away at unreal(manipulated) prices.Now here is the REAL kicker:A shareholder of a company can and should, ask for the stock certificates that represent his/her shares. This certificate is a negotiable instrument(transferable from one person to another) or using a different term "PAPER MONEY"!,but it can only be used once since it has to be indorsed(my brokerage house charges $30.00 per certificate and the certificate is issued by a bank)In the example of Pete's mine the share certificate would always be backed by 90% "REAL" physical Gold. Do you see where this line of thought is leading?Using these certificates among consenting parties in time it may be possible to use them in place of dollars, Euro's, Yen etc. The company maaayy even be able to issue them without additional fees, and in small increments........WAAA LLAAAA..paper Gold backed money.A little bit more about Pete, before I get too sleepy. Pete is about 70 years old and in very good shape. He doesn't have to rely on the revenue from the Gold at his Gold mine to pay his living expenses.From what he told me he would only like to sell chunks of ore(with heavy Gold content visible)by weight. IMHO Pete would rather chip away at the vein in the hopes of uncovering a really big nugget,rather than develop the mine into a big operation. Looking for that elusive "BIG" nugget is what drives, and yes excites,many small time, long term Goldhearts, including me.....Thanks for Reading.....beesting. justamereBear (10/17/00; 23:32:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 39269) R Powell 39263 I am not to sure exactly where I stand. And I am certainly not giving investment advice.I have no problem with someone who is doing something and are aware of what they are doing, but, Feb. gold options are so illiquid that even if one wins, by the time the big boys get done raping, no profit. People buy lottery tickets all the time knowing they have a bigger chance of being struck by lightning than of winning, and I have no problem with that.I am sticking with options, rather than futures, simply because I can quantify my maximum downside. All I can lose is what I put in. As time goes by I am expecting more and more that government will impose some pretty draconian measures, and fairly early in the game. The final straw was yesterdays speech by Greenspan, in which he went on record as being in favor of letting markets find their own level, WITHOUT INTERFERENCE FROM GOVERNMENT. This from a bunch who have been very clearly interfering with everything under the sun. Why? Could it be that they expect they are going to lose this battle anyway, and are saving their ammunition for the war to save the treasury if fiat fails? In the final analysis, no matter how smart I am as an indiviual, they have thousands of brains using the best and latest equipment, and they are going to think of a lot more possible plans than I am. Sure one can sometimes predict how that particular mindset will react and take advantage, but I am not counting on it.As to gold options at this time, I think the volatility is low, and a volatilty play could possibly pay off.However, I am really expecting to NOT be able to covert my paper options to physical. I do hope to be nimble enough to get greenbacks out, and I have some plans that I hope will yield some pretty good results in that case. There are to many uncertainties. Yesterday I believe it was, there was a post regarding some 39 TRILLION in notional derivitives on the books of US banks. Now a lot of that will be double counting, but, as the economists say, on the other hand that is only US banks. Now think for a moment about LTCM. They had huge leverage, but not as much as these banks who are largely building these derivitives out of thin air. The post gave as an example Morgan, who if 1.8% of their derivitives went sour, would use up their entire capital. If one of these banks gets in trouble, they will all be in trouble in a row of dominoes effect. LTCM was a small, new player, but they threatened the entire US banking system, and maybe the worlds banking system. That's why Greenspan jumped so quickly to rescue them. But with 39 Trillion at risk, can all the central banks of the world, all banding togeather, salvage 39 Trillion. I doubt it. And WILL they? I doubt that too, since they will have their own problems to worry about.So I am expecting a good deal of defaults when I go to cash in my paper, not to mention the other small problems floating around such as the middle east, finite and rapidly depleting hydrocarbons, etc etc. Saddam baby is going to win his war, because he introduced an element of doubt into the US dollar, by demanding no more payments in US dollars, anything else but, even the failing euro, or we won't ship any oil. If that doubt grows, and I have seen evidence that others are inclined that way, or at least mistrust the US, if not its dollar, yet.In May I said to myself, "self, come early Sept, you are going to buy lots of S&P puts." Well I got tied up in other things and did not.I can also say that as far as dollars go, I am completely tapped out, to the extent that I am short of walking around money. Frankly, I am TERRIFIED. I freely admit that there are very few in the populace who are as negative as I am, and they may be right, but if I am right, they are going to hurt, a lot. If they are right, I am not going to hurt very much at all.Yes I do believe that the S&P is going down from here. I won't get involved in advise as to how to play it.The main flys in my ointment are: Retail sales remain strong in North America, indicating continued confidence, and in the final analysis this game is all out confidence. Some other parts of the world are also confident, eg China.The second is that every crash I have studied or heard about, started after there was at least a recession underway, So maybe not this year. Call me again next Oct. Best wishes Peter Asher (10/17/00; 23:21:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 39268) auspec (10/17/00; 21:27:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 39265) I am relieved that someone is finally getting serious about this. Obviously it was going to take a "Big Player" like yourself to whip this show into line. How ‘bout you hold the sovereigns down to 2 Mil even and we build a spec house with the other $340,000. Remember what TG said about residential real estate and the pending hyper-inflation. BTW the house should be by a major ski lift so if it doesn't sell we can get some use out of it! (;-) Al Fulchino (10/17/00; 21:46:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 39267) Trail Guide Trail Guide, you would have to be living in a fairly temperate climate if you are now tending to a new herb garden. Let's see....zone 7 maybe, more likely 8-10. My compliments to you for the ability to enjoy that time spent out of doors working the earth. At this time of year it is a blessing. In my climate, we are just getting ready to batten down the hatches so we can enjoy winters wonders. But as a former landscaper who seems to own just about one of everything from area nurseries, I can appreciate your "winter" hobby. I have to resort to a screensaver that has pictures of our land and how it looks, in the growing season.I have watched what you have written over the last year and a half. You are from an arena that offers interest to me, yet I can only watch from a distance and see over time whether you are right or not. I have always been more from The Stranger's camp. There I find a reasoning that I understand, based on my life experience. And I often postulate that the whole of all you offer would easily be stunted if the good ole USA would do one thing and one thing only. Utilize honest money. I am perhaps to simplistic and naive in the ways of your teachings but the need for a euro, for watching gov't gold holdings and carry trades etc are just an outgrowth of abuses of the US currency system and manipulations of financial systems.Happy gardening to you. And may what is right show itself to each of us. And may what is right be accepted by each of us. TheStranger (10/17/00; 21:43:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 39266) Ugly Opening On Tap For Tomorrow Both the Nikkei and the Hang Seng are down close to 3% tonight. This is no doubt due to IBM's earnings report which came out after the New York close. As usual, IBM managed to finesse the bottom line, but the top line is a lot harder to fudge. Either the sales are there or they aren't. In IBM's case they weren't as the increase over last year was only 3%. At last report, the stock is down about 9 points in overseas trading. By itself, that is enough for a quick haircut of 60 points or so off the Dow Jones Industrial Average tomorrow morning.Friday's bounce in U.S. stocks came off of a couple of widely watched round numbers for the Nasdaq (3000)and the Dow (10,000). Unfortunately, or fortunately, depending upon point of view, this IBM news will probably plunge the Dow below 10,000 in the morning. Eventually, something will panic the $250 Billion dollars worth of stock that is currently held on margin. Most of it is in technology stocks so this IBM report could be the catalyst. If so, we may be about to witness the final capitulation in a bear market that has been around a lot longer than most people realize.Everybody I know, practically, has bought a computer in the last 5 years. But no one I know has bought one this year. How could so many people think the growth in this industry would sustain indefinately? It boggles the mind.None of this is either here nor there for a gold forum discussion, of course, except for what it ought to imply for the dollar. auspec (10/17/00; 21:27:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 39265) Peter Asher/ Satire Evening Sir,The silence ends as am no longer able to contain myself, here is a second to your desire for a separate HOF category for the off-beat! Lord knows this site could lighten up a bit. This poster has a lot of influence with Michael as am currently in process of ordering $2.34M worth of British Sovereigns from him. Either we get our category or I will pull this order! This is clearly a capitalist enterprise that responds to it's customers {and their bucks}. You know, with the commissions this outfit charges, 30-35%, that order is worth a lot of ski trips, and bottles of Chivas, even to Buffet, Gates, and Kosares. If we don't get our needs met by the next new moon we'll organize a strike and all buy our future fortunes on Comex {they have all that gold don't they?}. It is totally unfair and undemocratic to limit the HOF to the intelligent. Let the people speak and gain the victory from our oppressors...What say you fellow {half} wits??????????P.S. This post will appear daily until the revolution is over.Thank you Sir Peter for your persistence. Canuck (10/17/00; 21:04:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 39264) Miscellaneous Interesting trains of thought in the last few weeks.Most recent is new visible cracks appearing in 'debt' markets. Excellent 'link' below from Noland (Tice).Junk bonds and high yield debt increasingly subject to default.Stock markets failing/stalling; where does capital gain tax come from? Servicing debt now improbable, realization will lead to non-confidence.Last herd stampede to US dollar? When USD becomes insolventwhere is the last, last flight to quality?Collapsing debt is now the key, the oil spike has completed it's task. Unwinding this monster will soon start. After elections the NEED to hang on will be past.Paper as discussed on this forum may go anywhere, everything is too bizarre to call. Physical is safe, shorting the dollar, play it simple, play it safe?I for one will load up soon, before end of October and then the chips can fall. This could be very extreme. The acceleration of the unwinding may be frightening, startling.I am going with my gut instinct, that's what brought me here almost 2 years ago. I know I've seen enough; I don't understand alot of the going's on but I do know that things are not right. There is an slimy, artificial and distorted feel to money and wealth. The graphs, the salaries and the markets are not real. Everyone must do what they must do. R Powell (10/17/00; 20:51:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 39263) Next year's option? JustamereBear, in reference to your explanation of options as time wasting assets (39250), I couldn't agree more. Someone at G-E mentioned a figure around $500 for the 350 Dec. 2001 gold call. Mini S+P puts are also looking very tempting and might be the means to finance both long term calls and some physical. These thoughts are only one poor man's opinion and not trading advice. Sancho (10/17/00; 20:38:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 39262) ALL Folks, I just painfully watched two "promising" presidential aspirants strut around on stage. They promised everything to everybody. Is there anyone out there besides me that feels either vice-presidential candidate would be superior?? Excuse me, I feel a major major puke coming on........ R Powell (10/17/00; 20:34:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 39261) Paper money http://www.prudentbear.com/guest.htm Long but good. Chris Powell (10/17/00; 20:26:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 39260) Central Fund is still there The Central Fund of Canada is stillon the American Exchange as CEF. Peter Asher (10/17/00; 20:07:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 39259) nickel62 (10/17/00; 15:14:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 39243) That was really good satire.Consider it nominated for the Satire and Allegory ante-room in the HOF that I keep suggesting to the sounds of silence. beesting (10/17/00; 19:24:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 39258) Hi Sir auspec. Message received, thank you! No time to post right now, have to run, but will try to post more tonight......beesting. auspec (10/17/00; 18:25:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 39257) Sir beesting Greetings,Follow up from yest. discussion. Your idea of holding gold for investors is such a good one that it has been done for years via the Central Fund of Canada. It used to be on the American Exchange and may still be {CFC?}. They hold gold and silver and used to pay around a 3% dividend as you are suggesting. Sometimes you can buy it below net asset value, likely right now. Not investment advice, of course. This idea is certainly a worthwhile one. It is not quite gold in hand however.On a second subject- viability of a mining project. I have recently invested in a gold stock that is tracking a 5-15 METER thickness of gold mineralization {1/2 Oz/ton} that initial indications suggest extends 1000 meters or more. It's not in the best country politically but is run by seasoned and successful pros. So what does this great looking mining co sell for???? You got it $.16C. Does that help put a mining project in perspective for you?This is the type of project that MIGHT have some success selling shares to raise $. Wouldn't this be a good one to link up with your gold in reserve idea? That way you get your "gold certificates" plus a world class exploration play. Those certificates are not quite "dense" enough for me and don't jingle when in hand however. Best to you! HI - HAT (10/17/00; 18:22:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 39256) Carry On Great market systemic stresses and crises, can be ongoingand still everything can seem as "normal".Even as the Russian Army amassed around Berlin, and began shelling the city, the Berlin Philarmonic Orchestra wasin full concert mode. RossL (10/17/00; 17:53:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 39255) A fine commentary posted over at one of those other web sites http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_00/noland101700.html snip: What had been an unfolding financial dislocation took a dramatic turn for the worst earlier this week. And despite today's wild rally, it is my view that we are now in the midst of a full-fledged financial crisis. Further, for the U.S. financial system and economy, the Middle East crisis could not have come to a head at a more inopportune time. In numerous commentaries, we have written extensively on the issue of financial fragility and we do not think one can overstate the critical importance of this concept. Unfortunately, over this protracted boom cycle the U.S. financial system has developed acute vulnerability to the point that it hangs in a truly fragile balance – there is absolutely no room for error. There is going to be an accident, it is only a matter of time and under what circumstances. The amount of leveraged speculation is unprecedented. There has been considerable marketplace speculation with respect to losses suffered by U.S. financial institutions. Clearly, there are problems associated with a near breakdown in the junk bond market - with the plethora of downgrades, earnings disappointments, defaults and now a self-feeding credit crunch. Morgan Stanley Dean Witter denied the most heated rumor of a billion dollar hit. There are, however, serious losses out there somewhere, and we suspect that the entire leveraged speculating community is desperately hoping for a recovery. According to MarketNews International, the spread between Treasuries and the S&P Speculative grade credit index widened 17 basis points yesterday, indicative of a virtual panic. Buena Fe (10/17/00; 17:47:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 39254) cabal busters! 100 week chart on oil looks very bullish........see no reason why 50+ couldn't be scratched by Feb-Mar.(sorry no link) wolavka (10/17/00; 17:41:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 39253) What don't you understand? Mortgage the kids and buy gold. wolavka (10/17/00; 15:52:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 39252) gold access mkt gold starting to move. more fun. face off. justamereBear (10/17/00; 15:49:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 39251) A PS to my last #39250 Please note that afterv the crash of 1929, it was not until later in 1930 and 31 that the POG started to move up smartly. justamereBear (10/17/00; 15:42:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 39250) Rockgrabber 39234 This is not investment advise, but if you are bound and determined to buy gold call options, at least be aware of some factors.If one buys options, 85% of the time you are going to lose all or nearly all of what you invest in gold options. Gold options are composed of a great deal more than the price of gold, for example if the lease rate of gold goes up normally (except for other market forces) the price of the option will also rise.Options are a wasting asset. Time is a BIG factor. For instance, the long dated option, say Dec. 01,(which is about a year from now) loses about 50-55% of its value (assuming the POG & lease rates stay constant) over the first 9 months and the other 45-50% over the last 3 months. So if you really want to play this game, and you have decided that POG will rise in Oct., or Nov., you can buy Dec. 01 options, and assuming POG & lease rates, and market sentiment, stays constant, except for brokerage fees, on Jan 12, which is when those Feb. options expire, you can sell out, having lost only a small fraction of your capital. (As opposed to buying Feb. options which will then be worthless)By buying Feb. you are betting that POG will rise, before they expire Jan. 12, by an amount at least equal to how much your options are out of the money, PLUS an amount equal to what you paid for the option. Only then can you make a hoped for profit. If you are buying anything but in the money options, dated Feb., as a way of cutting down the possibility of margin, I would feel you are playing a mugs game. I, personally buy options as a type of insurance against the rise in the POG before I have the rest of my plans in place. I buy options, and if they expire worthless, fine. I paid fire insurance on my house and it didn't burn down either. I lost the premium there as well.The only big win I ever had in options was last time gold spiked to 320. I had Dec. (long dated) 320 options which I had purchased at $200, when volatility was very low. When I sold out, at around 315, I sold them for $4,000. So basically you have to play them as a volatility play, not a POG play. If, as I did at first, many years ago, I had continued to buy out of the money nearby options because they were cheap, and have them expire worthless, I would have spent 20 to 40 times what I did spend, to have this insurance. (This during a time when POG drifted downwards slowly, which is not impossible even now.) This is not to say I have not had small wins by playing the volatility, but over the long haul it has still cost me a fairly substantial amount to keep my insurance in place.So, in summary, if you are buying Feb. options you are rolling the dice, in a game where the dice are loaded. Beowulf (10/17/00; 15:40:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 39249) I hate investment magazines Does anyone have a site where I can see graphs of Gold vs. the Asian stock market, or the European stock markets, or the Australian stock markets? I get these dumb investment magazines that my father signed me up for and they always show gold vs. Dow, or NASDAQ, or the S&P but never anything else. I wanted to show someone why they should have physical gold in there portfolio by showing them a comparison of gold vs. a declining market but the damn magazines never show it and I don't know where to go to see these types of graphs.I really want to see if gold is rallying in Europe vs. Eurpean markets or if it's declining. I know it's up against every currency but the U.S. dollar but magazines never show that either.-Beowulf wolavka (10/17/00; 15:38:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 39248) ibm after hours symbol, B M, Buena Fe (10/17/00; 15:32:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 39247) Black Gold!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! http://www2.marketwatch.com/headlines/headlines.asp?topic=3&source=htx%2Fhttp2_mw This should rip a hole in any relief the market was hoping for!17:23 API POSTS 3.11 MILLION-BARREL DROP IN LAST WEEK'S CRUDE STOCKS - BRIDGE NEWS17:23 API POSTS 540,000-BARREL DROP IN LAST WEEK'S DISTILLATE STOCKS - BRIDGE17:23 API POSTS 3.676 MILLION-BARREL DROP IN LAST WEEK'S GASOLINE STOCKS - BRIDGE nickel62 (10/17/00; 15:22:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 39246) Ron L Remember the use for worthless paper money is paying off debt Most of us have house mortgages that would be a good use for some of that worthless paper money. wolavka (10/17/00; 15:22:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 39245) paper Everyone hates it, well, should have shorted the paper u.s. dollar today. nickel62 (10/17/00; 15:20:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 39244) Thanks Steve H for your help.. The paragraph reads much better than before. I hope others will take a crack at adding anything they think might further enhance the arguement. nickel62 (10/17/00; 15:14:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 39243) For those unable to listen to the debates tonight the transript!!!! For those who don't have time to watch the presidential debate Tuesday> night, I've prepared this transcript of what will be said:>> Jim Lehrer: Welcome to the third and final presidential debate between> Vice> President Al Gore and Gov. George W. Bush. The candidates have agreed on> these rules: I will ask a question. The candidate will ignore the> question and deliver rehearsed remarks designed to appeal to undecided> women> voters. The opponent will then have one minute to respond by trying to> frighten> senior citizens into voting for him. When a speaker's time has expired, I> will whimper softly while he continues to spew incomprehensible statistics>> for three more minutes.>> Let's start with the vice president. Mr. Gore, can you give us the name> of a downtrodden citizen and then tell us his or her story in a way that> strains the bounds of common sense?>> Gore: As I was saying to Tipper last night after we tenderly made love the>> way we have so often during the 30 years of our rock-solid marriage, the> downtrodden have a clear choice in this election. My opponent wants to cut>> taxes for the richest 1 percent of Americans. I, on the other hand, want> to put the richest 1 percent in an ironclad lockbox so they can't hurt old>> people like Roberta Frampinhamper, who is here tonight. Mrs.> Frampinhamper has been selling her internal organs, one by one, to pay for>> gas so that she can travel to these debates and personify problems for me.>> Also, her poodle has arthritis.>> Lehrer: Gov. Bush, your rebuttal.>> Bush: Governors are on the front lines every day, hugging people, crying> with them, relieving suffering anywhere a photo opportunity exists. I want>> to empower those crying people to make their own decisions, unlike my> opponent, whose mother is not Barbara Bush.>> Lehrer: Let's turn to foreign affairs. Gov. Bush, if Slobodan Milosevic> were to launch a bid to return to power in Yugoslavia, would you be able> to pronounce his name?>> Bush: The current administration had eight years to deal with that guy> and didn't get it done. If I'm elected, the first thing I would do about> that> guy is have Dick Cheney confer with our allies. And then Dick would> present me several options for dealing with that guy. And then Dick would>> tell me which one to choose. You know, as governor of Texas, I have to> make tough foreign policy decisions every day about how we're going to> deal> with New Mexico.>> Lehrer: Mr. Gore, your rebuttal.>> Gore: Foreign policy is something I've always been keenly interested in. I>> served my country in Vietnam. I had an uncle who was a victim of poison> gas in World War I. I myself lost a leg in the Franco-Prussian War. And> when that war was over, I came home and tenderly made love to Tipper in a> way that any undecided woman voter would find romantic. If I'm entrusted> with the office of president, I pledge to deal knowledgeably with any> threat, foreign or domestic, by putting it in an ironclad lockbox.> Because the American people deserve a president who can comfort them with> simple metaphors.>> Lehrer: Vice President Gore, how would you reform the Social Security> system?>> Gore : It's a vital issue, Jim. That's why Joe Lieberman and I have> proposed changing the laws of mathematics to allow us to give $50,000 to> every senior citizen without having it cost the federal treasury a single> penny until the year 2250. In addition, my budget commits $60 trillion> over the next 10 years to guarantee that all senior citizens can have> drugs> delivered free to their homes every Monday by a federal employee who will> also help them with the child-proof cap.>> Lehrer: Gov. Bush?>> Bush: That's fuzzy math. I know, because as governor of Texas, I have to> do math every day. I have to add up the numbers and decide whether I'm> going to fill potholes out on Rt. 36 east of Abilene or commit funds to> re-roof the sheep barn at the Texas state fairgrounds.>> Lehrer: It's time for closing statements.>> Gore: I'm my own man. I may not be the most exciting politician, but I> will fight for the working families of America, in addition to turning the>> White House into a lusty pit of marital love for Tipper and me.>> Bush: It's time to put aside the partisanship of the past by electing no> one but Republicans.>> Lehrer: Good night.> Leigh (10/17/00; 15:14:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 39242) Cavan Man Second. Cavan Man (10/17/00; 14:55:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 39241) Knallgold 39229 I humbly submit this for HOF here. Any seconds? The Traveler (10/17/00; 14:29:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 39240) (No Subject) A guaranteed reservation for tonight at the forum table is desired. RossL (10/17/00; 14:15:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 39239) Rockgrabber http://fly.hiwaay.net/~becraft/MONEYbrief.html If you read through the page (above link) you will find a history of paper money in America. Several times in the past, the notes became worthless. What good would a gold call have been (say one had been available) denominated in confederate dollars or revolutionary greenbacks? At best it could have resulted in the acquisition of some physical gold before the currency collapsed. After the currency collapsed, the contracts would be worth nothing. Remember, the US federal reserve note is based on nothing but trust. It is possible that your gold calls could earn you nothing but a truckload of worthless FRN's.Worthless paper money. It has happened before. It will happen again. Golden Truth (10/17/00; 14:09:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 39238) To Trail Guide Will Silver also be "FREE" from the paper pushers? I hold all my GOLD in coins,bars etc. I just bought some silver last week to diversify a little. Sort of what you did with your shares in "Gold" i hope you really did not burn them, as a symbolic gesture to never sell them? Anyways your thoughts on Silver when GOLD disconnects from the paper price would be much looked forward to,and thanks for being here all this time through thick and thin. P.s I Love Chives :-) hint hint! G.T SteveH (10/17/00; 13:27:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 39237) I took the liberty to edit nickel62's excellent repartee... (hope this was ok nickel62?)An edit of nickel62 (10/17/00; 11:50:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 39227)The Great Gold FulcrumEvidence suggests that the US Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) under control of the President of the United States and the Secretary of Treasury and specific Bullion Banks are holding gold lower in price in order to raise the US dollar against all major currencies – the intention is not to irritate gold bugs but to mark the US dollar up so that Treasury Secretary Rubin's strong dollar policy of January of 1995 can continue. It allows the financing of the burgeoning US debt through a massive creation of new liquidity most of which has found its way into the US equities markets.In light of 1995's showing that interest payments on the US debt were about to exceed the total tax revenues from the individual income tax, the only way the Administration could keep its promise to deliver economic growth and provide lower interest rates was to dramatically increase the money supply. This increase in money supply went primarily into the US stock and bond markets. This resulted in a burgeoning US equity market and a lower interest rates.Other world currencies, specifically the Yen, Mark, and eventually the Euro tried desperately to lower the value (the foreign exchange value used to promote trade) of their own currencies. Gold -- in which all currencies are measured and is the only other "currency" that could tattletale on the near-failing state of the US dollar -- prompted the US Treasury to cooperate with US and International bullion and brokerage banks. This orchestration forced a downward pressure on the price of gold. Containing gold's price achieved a strong and rising US dollar; it guaranteed that the growing US trade deficit would be recycled back into the US stock and bond markets. The number one determinant that every foreign investor makes is: "What will be the relative movement of the US currency versus their own currency?" This gave Europe and Japan a positive return to all investments in the US (as long as these countries’ investors had to contend with their own weakening currency strategies. The Rubin/Summers/Clinton strong-dollar policy directed the flows of international capital into the US stock and bond markets in what is now being called the longest US expansion in history (now we see why). The secret was inflating the NASDAQ and the DOW to be a satisfactory lure of foreign capital. The payoff was a strong US dollar and increased liquidity (this policy increased the M3 money supply at an unprecedented rate). US dollar holders could now buy world-wide products, commodities, and services at near a 30% discount to the a more market price -- effectively "stealing' the value of all commodities and manufacturing worldwide. To succeed, this policy required that gold be held low (below $290). It was a critical that gold be sold short on world commodity markets such that monetary gold be contained to 1) prevent a weak dollar and 2) to keep the historic measure of inflation low. When Oil countries realized what the strong dollar policy was doing to oil prices (remember $10/bbl oil?), they controlled the price of oil upwards 350% over the last 23 months. This rate of increase is even greater than the returns on the DOW and NASDAQ during the same period. This increase in oil prices was pervasive and worked its way into world-wide pricing of goods and services, thus sparking global fears of inflation and recession. The timely departure of Mr. Rubin appears to be more than coincidental with the beginning of this oil-price reversal. Charts are now showing a major divergence of the long-standing highly correlated oil-gold/oil-DOW ratios that appears to be an omen for market upheavals now being forewarned by global market volatility.By Nickle62 (edited by SteveH) wolavka (10/17/00; 13:07:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 39236) swiss franc ran up to close, now fun starts. Trail Guide (10/17/00; 12:55:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 39235) Reply / comment Knallgold (10/17/00; 08:58:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 39216)Hello Knallgold,I will never finish my fresh herb garden if I continue to read these posts. Good health and a strong spirit from fine wine with food is much better than gold, you know (smile). Yes, I also own some gold shares. It's quite an amount, even at these prices. But it is in a reasonable proportion to my other assets. Should have never said anything about it because I knew very few people would understand the rational at that time. Brought the companies for their philosophy, not their current (at that time) share values. This was done with an eye on the future, on the other side of this battle. From the beginning, it was fully well understood that the paper price of gold would fall until some convulsion crushed it's credibility. Where on the dollar gold price range this would occur depended on the players at the chess board. But, the ongoing dollar price was never to be the gauge of success, anyway.With this in mind, the very best shares were chosen (there are only a few good ones around the world). Both bullion (large amounts, still accumulating) and shares (small amount and one time buy) were brought with an expectation of a zero price in dollars. In other words; we brought shares for their possible survival and we brought bullion to own ounces outright, not dollars per ounce. This is a far different and stronger mental position than you read from leveraged traders, no? If gold soars tomorrow, good! If it plunges tomorrow, good! I am on this trail for the destination, not the game. Even though, the sights along the way will be incredible to behold.For better of worse, richer or poorer, in sickness and good health,,,,,, this is the path I follow. After reading that line, you are correct to assume I am married to this position (smile). I can tell you it is a very large ongoing wedding, because none of us ever walk this trail alone.Further:I have to say that had the mining industry promoted it's product as a wealth holding and pushed for investors to buy gold first, ahead of and in greater quantity than their common shares; there is a good chance the markets would have changed long before now. No different than watching Ford push their vehicles and ending up with people owning and always buying more of their product. Never hear of anyone saying their ford shares can carry just as much as a new ranger (smile).But, by promoting paper leverage (of all kinds) as being the same or better in value than what history taught us about gold, trader advocates played themselves and their investors right into the slaughter of open currency warfare.It would be great if these markets would break, right now. Giving some type of paper run that allowed many regular people time to reallocate. It may, but political will is against it. As it is, many such as yourself (?) are striving mentally to adjust their diminished capitol so as not to risk it all. By the way,,,,,, the very old investor I mentioned some time ago,,,,, the one that was slowly allocation a decades long ride in the dow into bullion. He is now completely out and in cash and bullion. He trusts gold and knows nothing about oil or the Euro. Yet, still strong in his feelings that a big inflation may lift the dow further. I don't dare debate him because his record is flawless for some many many years,,,, and his wealth is truly great.good luck(now back to my hobby)Trail Guide Rockgrabber (10/17/00; 12:48:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 39234) HELP ME Physical Gold it is. I wont argue that physical is the way to win no matter. Trail Guides guides have been most informative and I see prophetical as well. There is only a few things left to now happen. I am not in controll of what is going on, so fallowing those who are is my only way. I cant make things work the way I see they should, but others seem to beable to, so I will fallow them even though what they are doing is sick. I dont think the world is better in there controll, but they sure do, so the can have their way, as they have paved it. A bunch of fools addicted to the illusion of controll is what they are, and they dont even know better. They may make themselfes out to be smart, but they are the least. Nothing dumber then doing evil, as they are showing by having to use deception. If you have to decieve it should not be done!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Going to make sure we learn that one the hard way though.Anyways what I needed help with is I am itching to buy FEB calls. AAAHHH Stop me pplleeaase. Actually I cant help it I am going to do it. But I still know the yellow itself is a no brainer. (actually it is a brainer, it will strain the heck out of your brain, but you have done some good thinking to conclude that physical is where it is at) Not just feb gold calls, but I want Euro calls, I want dollar puts, I want CRB calls, ECT. When is it time to put the money where the mouth is?? Cause if you cant figure the time out, then you will maybe have nothing left by the time it is time. Unless you add physical. Actually the best idea I could probably have (but have not enough balls 4 it) is to sell papper gold and attain physical and the go BK with all my gold in the ground. Thats what they are up to right?? Rockgrabber (10/17/00; 12:47:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 39233) HELP ME Physical Gold it is. I wont argue that physical is the way to win no matter. Trail Guides guides have been most informative and I see prophetical as well. There is only a few things left to now happen. I am not in controll of what is going on, so fallowing those who are is my only way. I cant make things work the way I see they should, but others seem to beable to, so I will fallow them even though what they are doing is sick. I dont think the world is better in there controll, but they sure do, so the can have their way, as they have paved it. A bunch of fools addicted to the illusion of controll is what they are, and they dont even know better. They may make themselfes out to be smart, but they are the least. Nothing dumber then doing evil, as they are showing by having to use deception. If you have to decieve it should not be done!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Going to make sure we learn that one the hard way though.Anyways what I needed help with is I am itching to buy FEB calls. AAAHHH Stop me pplleeaase. Actually I cant help it I am going to do it. But I still know the yellow itself is a no brainer. (actually it is a brainer, it will strain the heck out of your brain, but you have done some good thinking to conclude that physical is where it is at) Not just feb gold calls, but I want Euro calls, I want dollar puts, I want CRB calls, ECT. When is it time to put the money where the mouth is?? Cause if you cant figure the time out, then you will maybe have nothing left by the time it is time. Unless you add physical. Actually the best idea I could probably have (but have not enough balls 4 it) is to sell papper gold and attain physical and the go BK with all my gold in the ground. Thats what they are up to right?? wolavka (10/17/00; 12:43:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 39232) dollar/ gold Dollar now to fall, gold mkt , gold inversion again.commodities to move higher, grains meats esp.not investment advice. Cavan Man (10/17/00; 12:21:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 39231) Knallgold Thanks very much for that summary. Am facing a hard choice in the IRA and that's why I asked. I figured my stocks were more than hedged with physical but it is getting painful. The potential double whammy is the (long term) value of USD for me.I was convinced FOA was right a year ago and despite all the trail marks you note, why am I still asking the same questions!!!??? wolavka (10/17/00; 12:12:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 39230) crush the dollar okay Knallgold (10/17/00; 11:56:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 39229) CavanMan The paper strategy isn't working!Noone of the traditional bugs could resolve my paradox:1)ordinary Goldmarket2)Goldstocks will rise xtimes the POG,like in the seventies3)XAU shows accumulation=POG is rising later,(like the last year) and vice versa4)we all believe a huge Gold bull is very close and imminent5)in an ordinary Gold market,XAU would now beginning to rise massive 6)but it isn't,in fact it goes straight down,and that would point to a very low POG ahead.But a Goldbull is imminent.So how can that go if the market is still the ordinary one?So it must be not an ordinary Gold market this time.Who said that first?"Nothing will be as we knew it" or so!Credit goes to FOA/A.-Then we had the euro/oil deal from Saddam!No one predicted that exept?"Watch oil",yes,I did,it more than tripled!OPEC flexing muscles-We had very nice charts here oil/Dow/Gold.Gold for oil?-China opens a new physical Gold market,fact!-Dollar skyhigh,that almost killed me as I had $'s on margin.Short dollar,long mining stocks...and the dollar didn't tank.A failing currency is rising!-Goldstocks going to zero,to "levels no Goldbug can stand"-I could stand it,but I don't need to as something is becoming very fishy here,"Mines must sell in the old market at whatever prices" would fit as this stocks anticipate ridiculously low paper prices,(no doubt banks will do it!!)-Dow/Nasdaq collapsing,paper POG not advancing,Goldstocks no insurance so far-Palladium default as a first sign on how they will handle problems("Comex will default"),-XAU is in accelerating distribution mode(contrary to the explosivness last year in advance of the WA,where insiders then sold out and IMHO started to buy physical)-"Gold is in undersupply",obviously contrary to mining stocks!-"Comex must default before a new market is needed"-mining companies doing nothing (or can't),and WGC showed its real face,the short one with the long nose!-US faction scraping the bottom of the barrel (Uruguay etc..),will not sell itself (W(!)A);Europe limiting sales and leasing(!),and sell through BIS,not Comex/LBMA.-euro shows positive correlation to Gold,and Mr.D demonstratively confident despite low level-and my physical Gold in my currency (sFr)is in bullmode,contrary to my mining shares.I played them "all or nothing",had my chance Sept 99 but didn't use it.My fault I didn't believe FOA ,hey its just money and I am just a plain western thinker.Maybe it was already too late to sell now.You never stop to learn."Physical Gold will outperform all investments" AND IT ALREADY DOES!So I found the winner finally! nickel62 (10/17/00; 11:51:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 39228) Chris Powell Thanks for the information about Congressman Ron Paul's district nickel62 (10/17/00; 11:50:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 39227) The fulcrum point of gold leads to a much bigger transfer of wealth. Gold is being held lower in price as a necessary precurser to raising the US dollar against all major currencies not to piss off the goldbugs but to mark the US dollar up so that we can continue the policy that then TReasury Secretary Rubin put in place in January of 1995 to allow the financing of the burgeoning US debt through a massive creation of new liquidity. The only way her could continue to lower interest rates and deliver the economic growth he and Clinton hsd promised in light of the fact that in 1995 the current interest payments on the US debt were about to exceed the total tax revenues from the individual income tax, was to begin to dramtically increase the money supply and by recycling this increase in money supply into the US stock and bond markets resulting in a surging US equity market and a lower level of interest rates caused by the flow of money into the US bond market. The other world currencies, the Yen and the Mark and then Euro were for their own reasons desperately trying to lower the external value ( the foriegn exchange value used to promote trade ) of their own currencies. With gold in which all currencies are measured as the only other currency to highlight the true state of the US dollar the US Treasury entered into a strong dollar policy that cooperated with private sector sources of capital to orchestrate a down ward pressure on the price of gold and therefore allow them to continue to be able to achieve a strong and rising US dollar. This virtually insured that the growing US trade deficit would be recycled back into the US stock and bond markets since the number one determininate that every foreign investor makes is what will be the relative movement of the US currency versus the currency of the country that I am living in. In all of Europe and Japan this decision would give a very positive return to all investments in the US as long as both of these currency based areas investors were confronted with a weakening currency strategy of their own governments. This being the case the Rubin/Clinton strong dollar policy allowed the direction of flows of international capital to be directed into the US stock and bond markets with almost no end in sight. The key was the ability to inflate the NASDAQ and the Dow to whatever level was necessary to keep providing a satisfactory lure. The payoff was the ability to artifically inflate the value of the US dollar at the same time that M3 money supply was being created at unprecidented rates. This allowed US dollar holders to buy the products of the worlds labor and commodities at a roughly 30% discount to the more normalized free market price and to effectively "steal' the value added from all commodity and low level manufacturing world wide. The holding down of gold,as you refer to it, was only a necessary but tangential concern of the policy. It was a critical part of the rigging but not what they were primarily after. It is the realization of this rip off that led the commodity producers that could do something about it namely the energy producers to cooperate and raise their prices three hundred and fifty percent over the last 23 months. If you notice this rate of increase is even greater than the returns on the paper backed DOW or Nasdaq during the period and shows that the end of the sceme is at hand. The departure of MR. RUBIN is almost exactly coincident with the beginning of this reversal when the oil markets ceased to be able to be manipulated lower. As the great traitor that he is he knew when to get out of town and leave the fool academic from Harvard pratteling on the stage for the last act with MR. Hillary and company. Chris Powell (10/17/00; 11:47:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 39226) Ron Paul's district U.S. Rep. Ron Paul's district, the 14thCD in Texas, is a large rural area in the southeastern part of the state, sort of atriangle southeast of Austin, east of SanAntonio, northeast of Corpus Christi, and west of Houston. Looks like the 14th'slargest city is Victoria. WAC (Wide Awake Club) (10/17/00; 10:51:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 39225) SteveH, Canuck - Re too hot to handle. Agree with you guys, please see my post of 9/26:WAC (Wide Awake Club) (09/26/00; 10:37:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 37533)@AUgustUS, nickel62 - Control of MarketsThere are a couple of questions that I have been asking myself.1. Are the the current TPTB the first ones in mankind's history to attempt world domination. What became of the ones in the past who attempted the same - Nebuchadnazer, Assyrian, Greece, Rome etc. Are these current mob any more likely to succeed than their predecessors?2. Why does anyone want to control the world and more specifically, it's resources?. What ever happend to 'live-and-let-live'.3. Even more specifically, why do they want control of world gold supply, current and future?4. Can control be achieved without force, cohersion, aggression? Will it be achieved by 'Humanitarian Reasons'?5. Is it really a simple case of USA versus the Rest of the world, or Western versus Eastern, or whatever. Are not the elites in the USA, Europe (East and West), Middle East, Africa and Asia, ALL in the same camp. It is surely not in their interest to rock the boat too much. What about China? What does China want and can she be accommodated.6. Does history TRUELY repeat itself, OR is it really different this time nickel62 (10/17/00; 10:48:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 39224) Could some one please tell me where the 14 th Congressional District is in Texas? I was very impressed with the posting of SteveH of the speech by Ron Paul and would like to send it to my son who is a student at Rice University. Being from New England I have no idea if Houston is in the Congressman's district. wolavka (10/17/00; 10:05:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 39223) mkt going down duck & dow finished. paper giants wolavka (10/17/00; 09:57:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 39222) dec comex close 274+ sets the stage. TEX (10/17/00; 09:51:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 39221) Midas Mulligan I agree with you on Kelly's Heros. Do you remember the look on the face (and in the eyes) of the German Tank Commander when he first looked at all of the Gold stacked up waist high? Now, that's what you call "Gold Fever". Cavan Man (10/17/00; 09:40:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 39220) Knallgold more....Other 2/3 is phys. Cavan Man (10/17/00; 09:39:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 39219) Knallgold Why is it obvious to you? Can you explain? Shares are 1/3 for me but I am getting murdered. SteveH (10/17/00; 09:10:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 39218) TG, C annuck, Nickle... http://www.sightings.com/general4/blasts.htm Thanks.I urge all to read the "too hot to post" post below. All of this about more than just bullion and money. It is about power and misguided values. Also, check out Ron Paul's (also too hot to post) post. It is all tied together, somehow, guns, gold, and power. Knallgold (10/17/00; 09:06:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 39217) more.. I might add that I will buy Gold with the little bit left of my mining shares ...Physical Gold will be THE vehicle in the coming Goldbull market!I was unsure for long,but am now certain'so its time to act accordingly,no matter what it costs. Knallgold (10/17/00; 08:58:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 39216) Hello Trailguide I just sold all my mining shares,but I keep some GOLD and HGMCY in honour to you (smile).It is now obvious for me it is playing out as you described it.Altough I would never sell at the bottom,but this time it is different.I think I will regain my lost wealth (and a little more'smile).Thanks for all your efforts in sharing your knowledge.You have convinced me,but took a long time for this western thinker.... wolavka (10/17/00; 08:16:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 39215) Mutual funds = hydrocephalic baby boomers.Water flows path of least resistance.WAKE UP wolavka (10/17/00; 07:37:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 39214) ww oracle dec futures are squaring, you can only milk the cow so long.watch funds, also suckers in mutual funds are brain dead. conflict in middle east is not close to being over. Midas Mulligan (10/17/00; 07:32:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 39213) response to megatron and please read yesterday's explanation of what's keeping gold price down Megatron, I believe that when the price of gold rises the current political establishment will fall so capital gains will not matter. If you are a trader making money now off the rise and fall of gold prices then I see your point. Professor Askton, I like the way the movie What About Bob portrays the envy ridden mediocre type, power and prestige seeking, character which Ayn Rand's villians are. I'm referring to the psychiatrist who's tormented by the goldbug patient, I say he's a goldbug because he wears a goldfish in a bowl around his neck. The best gold movie I ever seen was KELLY'S HEROES. Anybody disagree? Cavan Man (10/17/00; 07:01:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 39212) Talk about political opportunism.... The Missouri Governor was tragically killed last night in a plane crash reminiscent of a crash over 20 (?) years ago that killed an up and coming candidiate for the US Senate from Missouri (name???). He was from Chillicothe.Anyway, they were interviewing Gephardt on KMOX this morning about the accidient. The news reader asked a really inappropriate question about the future of the Democratic Party in Missouri now with Carnahan gone. Gephardt began by saying what a shame...etc.. and then went to the playbook mantra which can be used interchangeably for any occasion; as you know, "HE REALLY LOVED CHILDREN"...ETC.HAVE THESE PEOPLE NO SHAME WW Oracle (10/17/00; 06:58:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 39211) @wolovka re:Digging for Clinton-apples I point out the $272 support for this reason: Since the yellow metal is pegged here it seems that pog isn't being affected by aussie producer selling, for the aussie pog is skyrocketing as the aussie dollar plummets.If the aussies aren't selling, what is driving gold downward? Why should ANYONE be selling? wolavka (10/17/00; 06:50:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 39210) ww oracle genetics!!!!!!!!! clintons dna crossed with potato cells.RESULTS--------------- DICTATORSUPPORT HERE, THAT'S ALL. Cavan Man (10/17/00; 06:33:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 39209) Canuck 39196 Those are the 401K and IRA funds you speak of? They are not hedged against the Eurodollars which price US equity markets yes? WW Oracle (10/17/00; 06:31:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 39208) @wolavka Dec $272What keeps holding gold at this level? Trail Guide (10/17/00; 06:31:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 39207) comment Hello SteveH,I had time away from gardening this morning, so reading your directives and TownCrier's recent good thoughts gave me something to say.I read your recent long post that organized (in your own mind) all the goings on in the currency / gold world. It is some mess, isn't it? A lot of the better understanding of all this has been hidden for years as it was covered up with "goldbug" oratorio from the broker / trader camp. You see, our world of physical gold thinking has been influenced by these Western trader thoughts and convictions for many years. Physical gold advocates didn't know how much the "gold - is - wealth" story was being diluted until only recently. Now as we watch reality sink in, events are distilling the gold story and burning off all their paper trading theories. Suddenly (for them it's suddenly) gold is not "to the world" what traders wanted it to be or played it for. Leveraged paper gold substitutes and their lot, such as mining shares are no longer as good as physical. This is a hard truth for most Western hard money thinkers to accept. They predicated their investment position for years (and some still do) on the past record that is; "as long as paper gold multiplied my dollar account in more or equal fashion as bullion, then paper is as good as gold". But the truth always was that a dollar account will never keep up with physical gold during a currency war where the fiat is defeated. This is the final outcome that hard money advocates have waited for and positioned themselves against for many years. Yet, when the game is at hand, they find themselves having taken a hard money position that advocates more paper trading (instead of riding physical). They brought the leverage story and it's suddenly become a leverage against them. All the while we knew that the most fantastic leverage available was really in holding physical. After reviewing some of the posts on other forums it's clear they are drifting now. Traders (such as "uptick"?) entered this paper arena and operated in it most of their hard money lifetime. They analyzed it like it was a stock or commodity. They did this over the recent life of our semi free gold market since it was born. Sometimes with success and sometimes not, but now that gold is entering it's real explosive stage their game plan cannot read it. Paper trades don't work when this thought comes out into the open; "gold - is - an - international - money - and - manipulated - in - fiat - warfare - just - like - currencies"------. The gulf between those that have "physical and can stay and master the play" and " those that will be driven out with paper loses to great to bear" is widening now. The once confident trading opinions we all read are being burned out of our gold world and truth is replacing them. In some ways it's good to have these outdated thoughts still posted because even "new to the game" thinkers can see this is not the way to go. Even though sharfin is not a newcomer, he is smarter than than most. Here is part of his post: --------------------------------Date: Tue Oct 17 2000 02:32sharefin (The tent pegs come flyeth undone.....) ID#284255:Copyright © 2000 sharefin/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedThe comments weren't mine but from the other side. As to your last comment re paper gold. I think exactly opposite. There's no way I would touch paper gold till after this coming correction. All the signs are there that paper gold is slowly being destroyed. To commit assets to paper gold in front of a meltdown is a lunacy. After the washout perchance it will be different. But to do so before is pure gambling. -----------------------------------Steve, Our modern gold market is set to bankrupt itself. All the political options have been put in play now and it's showtime. We must grab all the physical possible without disrupting the price setting mechanism. Lean back and watch as the US (our) dollar / gold structure cooks away in it's own stew. "NOONE" is going to grab any gold at the bottom of the turn because it will not be for sale then for an extended workout time. Once the real dollar price emerges (many thousands) only physical will trade. Only at this time, at and after the turn will paper gold be fully discredited in a total default. Don't look for many posts saying this thinking was right, those traders will be too despondent to even think much less write. I don't feel to badly about saying this as most of these guys were never hard money advocates in the first place. Many of them never stood back and looked at what their actions really entailed. That being; they mostly wanted to use the physical gold advocate's actions to make some leveraged money for themselves then move on. Owning real wealth was never their philosophy. So, every investment era has it's beginning and end. We (I assume you are a bullion holder like myself) can stand back and watch this paper gold system dissolve while gold the real international currency moves on. Our wealth in gold , whether large or small will weather this storm and produce some spectacular gains for our living standard. All because we made the hard choice to stand aside the misguided torrent that was an unavoidable river of Western thought. To use an illustration from an old Robert Redford movie I state my own verse; "the land is pure from peak to peakit is we that must choose our gatefrom where to view this nation's thoughts that flowthis river that runs through it will decide our fate"thanksTrail Guide RossL (10/17/00; 06:25:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 39206) ji, Journeyman http://fly.hiwaay.net/~becraft/MONEYbrief.html I finally took the time to read this all the way through. It is definately worth the time. Thanks for posting the link. RossL (10/17/00; 06:24:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 39205) SteveH - See the chart http://www.sharelynx.net/temp/DowGoldOilRatio.gif It seems odd that this chart looks so different than the oil/gold chart. This chart is a ratio of two ratios based on the Dow. Of course, the oil/gold chart is a ratio of two ratios based on the dollar. On both charts things started changing around 1997-1998. I'm still trying to come to a conclusion on what it all means! wolavka (10/17/00; 06:06:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 39204) time to end this dec 271.00 enough!!!!!!!!!!! nickel62 (10/17/00; 05:52:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 39203) Unable to contain OIL any longer they tried to throttle gold even lower!!!!! http://www.sharelynx.net/temp/DowGoldOilRatio.gif Making for the ridiculous price manipulations we have been forced to watch the last two years. nickel62 (10/17/00; 05:49:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 39202) Looking at the second chart from SteveH's post below it becomes obvious why Rubin left in July of 1998!!!!! http://www.sharelynx.net/temp/DowGoldOilRatio.gif The price rise in oil(tangible asset) had already started to outpace the sizzling pace of the DOW as of mid 1998. The death of the manipulation had already begun to be obvious time to leave the stage and leave the clueless Harvard professor babbling for the crowd with the other performers. nickel62 (10/17/00; 05:44:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 39201) An example of "poetry" from Reginald Howe "Great bull markets float not on a sea of easy domestic credit, but an ocean of international liquidity. Gold is best seized at the flood, when Anglo-American governments lead the campaign to denigrate its value in a vain effort to escape its discipline." nickel62 (10/17/00; 05:36:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 39200) Steve H Thank you for highlighting the Golden Sextant piece I had seen it but it didn't sink in as much until you pointed it out again. A major insight and very clear to all with the charts. Thanks for all your efforts, I find the URL s that you post very informative and a great help. nickel62 (10/17/00; 05:29:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 39199) CORRECTION OF MISSPELLING IN LAST POST!!!!!!! I beieve if was Shelley or maybe Keats who said that poets are the unacknowledged legislators of mankind. What they meant is that the thinkers who can conceptualize and then encapsulate the truth so that it can be understood by the common man rules the world. Since their ability to enlighten the masses through the power of the word moves minds and therefore mountains. Tom Paine and Jeffereson with "all men are created equal" jumps to mind. Think about it we maybe could have more impact than we think if we can peel off the cloaks of mystery the manipulators have covered their actions with and lay the truth out naked before the average citizen. nickel62 (10/17/00; 05:27:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 39198) I beieve if was Shelley or maybe Keats who said that poets are the unacknowledged legislators of mankind. What they meant is that the thinkers who can conceptualize and then encapsulate the truth so that it can be understood by the common man rules the world. Since their ability to enlighten the masses through the power of the world moves minds and therefore mountains. Tom Paine and Jeffereson with "all men are created equal" jumps to mind. Think about it we maybe could have more impact than we think if we can peel off the cloaks of mystery the manipulators have covered their actions with and lay the truth out naked before the average citizen. nickel62 (10/17/00; 04:58:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 39197) Ever wonder why the European leaders would be so willing to allow there currency values to be undermined by various measures like selling their gold and then watching as the EURO sinks? Well here is probably part of the puzzle. The VAT or value added tax which is the major revenue raiser for all the European countries is of course embedded in the price of the goods they produce. The United States does not have this problem with its goods which while they also reflect some taxation as do all manufactured products it is much less. Therefore with the introduction of the internet and other forms of modern globalization the competetiveness of the European manufactured goods are penelized in the marketplace because of the higher VAT tax burden. Faced with this the Europeans as a group would be more willing to accept currency devaluation as a way to adjust the problem since it is more politically palatable for their leaders. This type of macro economic pressure is what allowed Rubin and the designers of the "US strong dollar policy" to be able to step on gold and then assure themselves that with other moves to control the flow of investment dollars they could push the US dollar up agains the only three currencies that it is measured against, the Euro or the combined european currencies,including the mark; the yen which in order to keep it's economy from slipping into depressionary deflation needed to print money at a fantastic rate to keep foreign exchange rates of the yen low enought to continue export strength and at the same time print up enough new yen to paper over their hollowed out banking system. That of course left only gold. So throught the yen carry trade they were able to attract enoug speculative capital to begin to bury the standard by which the cheapness or richness of the US dollar currency is measured. Voila, you have a manipulation of the currency markets, interest rates by the Fed using the trade deficit dollars to be recycled back into the US bond markets, and the gold market which was of course the lynch pin of the entire rigging. The following article will show why there was motivation for the European business and government leaders to allow their vast gold reserves to be lent to accomplish this. Europe needs a fair online sales taxPresent duty on the sale of digital products via the internet discriminates against European companies, says Frits BolkesteinPublished: October 16 2000 19:32GMT | Last Updated: October 16 2000 20:50GMT In June I proposed an amendment to European value added tax legislation to allow for an easy application of VAT to digital products delivered over the internet. In terms of total VAT revenue this is not yet big business. But it is important to modernise our tax rules in this rapidly developing business sooner rather than later. European VAT legislation was conceived long ago at a moment when modern internet-based trade was not a reality. Our legislation is therefore outdated and needs revision. Today European producers of digital products, such as computer games and software, are at a competitive disadvantage compared with non-European producers because they have to apply VAT to their products within Europe. US competitors, by contrast, can export to Europe free of VAT. Similarly European exporters to the US are now obliged to pay European VAT, whereas US producers are not faced with the same obligation. I propose to put European producers of digital products on an equal footing with US and Japanese competitors by applying VAT to digital imports into the EU and exempting digital exports from the EU. This would create a global level playing-field for European and non-European companies. This should take place in a way that is easy and straightforward to apply. First, a threshold of E100,000 ($86,000) should be introduced so that small operators whose annual sales within Europe do not exceed this sum would not have to comply. Second, foreign companies should be allowed to register for VAT in one place in Europe and to do all their European business from there. This measure is a clear and positive signal not only to the business community, which needs clarity, but also to the treasuries in Europe, which need to know that the tax base is not being eroded by e-commerce. Surprisingly, however, these proposals have provoked a range of criticism, not all of which has been equally well informed. For example, some businesses in the US argue that if Europe implemented the proposals, it would be pre-empting global agreements on the taxation of the internet to be made within the framework of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. That is untrue. The proposals are neither more nor less than what was agreed by OECD Ministers in Ottawa in 1998. Some business circles have suggested that, instead of the present proposals, we should have a moratorium on internet taxation. That view must be based on a misunderstanding of what has been agreed internationally. It has never been said that existing taxes such as VAT should not be applied to electronic commerce. Rather, no new, special taxes should be invented for the internet. This is what we have done. To exempt electronic commerce from VAT in contrast to other forms of trade would not make sense. Furthermore, it would not be accepted by European finance ministers. Other critics argue that it will be impossible to control effectively the payment of VAT on digital services. True, the VAT system in general - and not particularly in an e-commerce context - is plagued by tax evasion. But most companies are honest and wish to comply with the law. The explosive development of e-commerce does raise issues of law enforcement that may be difficult to tackle, but these go beyond the issue of just taxation. Finally, some member states of the EU are loath to accept a single place of registration for non-European operators. But there are compelling arguments for such a system. First, a complex requirement for registration by non-European companies may run counter to our obligations under the global trade agreements in force. Second, to create a difficult and complex system would militate against European efforts to embrace the new technologies and possibilities offered by e-commerce. Surely, having a cumbersome tax system applied to the development of e-commerce cannot be in line with our ambitions to become the most competitive knowledge-based economy in the world. The EU has done - and is doing - a lot to promote the development of electronic commerce. We have recently completed a comprehensive framework of legislation for this commerce. We are negotiating an important initiative with member states to simplify and modernise the framework legislation for telecommunications in order to enhance competitive pressures and maintain the European lead in mobile communication. In a situation where we are striving on a number of different fronts to meet the requirements of the new economy, it is obviously of central importance that we also get the fiscal aspects of e-commerce right. When European ministers meet today to discuss our e-commerce taxation proposals for the first time, I hope that the determination to modernise our economies will prevail over short-term revenue considerations. The writer is European commissioner for taxation and the internal market. Canuck (10/17/00; 04:57:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 39196) @ Steve H. I hope you got my message yesterday morning.I have been following Ben for a while, I feel he may be right on.Your brillant call of more than a year ago is also right on; gold can't move until after elections. Did you see 'Snowgirl's' post of 14:44 (15th) yesterday?Funds are locked in tax protected vehicles and major redemptions are not possible. Just here on the morning news that (in Canada at least) net redemptions for Sept. were 1.4%. People are locked in and will go down with the ship.Yes, the next 60 days will be interesting. Anxiety and craziness should peek soon. wolavka (10/17/00; 04:41:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 39195) cease fire Was on charts, wait!!!!!!!!! wolavka (10/17/00; 04:10:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 39194) Final bloww off in gold Last chance @ this one. Zenidea (10/17/00; 04:03:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 39193) Sir Town Crier re msg 39163 ...8.2% 3rd Q I was through China last year , for those whom travel the world somewhat and get to see the whole picture as it were can easily tell simply by the construction noises/hums and numbers of overhead cranes that permeate the said cities , how any economy/country is holding up .The word Significant !! re bullion & China may well be the biggest whispered understatement yet to effect the precious metals market. Yes yes Sir Towncrier by ratio's; INDEEDY! I say . Thats indeed extaordinary !. :) SteveH (10/17/00; 01:23:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 39192) From the other side... http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/2000q4/2000_10/1001017.005810.sharefine.htm repost:Too hot to post. SteveH (10/17/00; 01:06:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 39191) See the chart, (1A12) http://www.sharelynx.net/temp/DowGoldOilRatio.gif Muy interesante autre vez! SteveH (10/17/2000; 0:50:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 39190) See the chart, (1A12) http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary15.html#anchor1602 Muy interesante. ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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