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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...

The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 10/17/1999
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

View Yesterday's Discussion.

backlash (10/17/99; 23:37:26MDT - Msg ID:16747)
Bonedaddy

Something happened and my last post just posted before I finished.

To continue: That last statement in your related encounter with Old Man Gold will be filed in my W.O.W. (Words-of-Wisdom) file.

Best Wishes, bl

backlash (10/17/99; 23:32:11MDT - Msg ID:16746)
>>>>>>------- $ 314.80 -------+>

A while has passed since my last post, but have been lurking every chance available.

My guess is based upon the feeling that the 'anti-golders' have not quit yet. They will throw everything they have in their arsenal at the gold market to keep their collective posteriors out of trouble. TOO LATE !! At this time I believe they are lying low as they marshal their forces. Unless something really drastic occurs, it will take them until 10-25-99 or longer to be ready. Hence, the POG likely will stay in this narrow band for just a bit longer.

Boy, does that sound like I know what I'm talking about. Actually it's another one of those SWAG's.

Since it is still a few minutes until deadline, a bit about my handle 'backlash'. It represents what I feel is going to happen from the 'little people' (of which I consider myself to be a member) when this whole mess unwinds. It is the little guys (and gals) in the market, etc., etc. that will get the proverbial shaft. THAT is when the backlash will occur. Therefore, my handle (in small letters) represents what will likely be what happens in the end game. I truly hope that many, many of us small folks wind up having the last laugh.

Bonedaddy - - Just love that discussion you had with Old Man Gold. How fantastic! But, the last line was the wisest of statements. It will be placed into my

Peter Asher (10/17/99; 23:26:08MDT - Msg ID:16745)
First statistics from non/Asia
France is up.35% and Egypt up .45% (Only Euro/Africa so far)

Peter Asher (10/17/99; 23:15:12MDT - Msg ID:16744)
>>>>>>> $333.50 >>>>>>>>

There seems to be much disappointment, even anger, that the POG did not continue upward after the panic break to $339 or so. However, one should observe that Gold spent only two weeks to reverse a price drop of TWO YEARS! A lot of buyers entered the market on the way down, many of whom might have been "Getting out from under" this past week.

A pause at this point is logical by even Vulcan standards. Granted there are historically new facts at work, but the first rush to jump on the new paradigm has subsided and the market will now continue to evaluate probabilities and seek opportunities in the environment of the new CB situation.

The initial breakout was 'news driven demand' as opposed to a demand driven rally that made news.
Supply/Demand on the trading floor is based on strategies to a greater degree then fundamentals unless the buy or sell momentum is in the extreme. Short, forward and naked positions will jockey for their profit/loss positions in a contest based on fact and fiction, statement and rumor, dancing to the tune of a new piper.

Even with "Blood on the (Wall) streets" of the world Friday and Monday in Asia the S&P is holding up with the premium fluctuating between -2542 and + 1275, now at a net change of+1521. (Index now down 2.30) It may be the " PPT" or it may simply be that Asia is having a short term bottom to match one made on Wall street on Friday. The "Men behind the curtain" will pull whatever levers they think will keep a controlled burn going, hoping a high wind doesn't come along and create a firestorm. They can only be intending to keep the trading public in equities, and out of Gold.

Gold could trade tightly range bound next week, or it could work it's way steadily higher as Funds and Mines acquire as much long position that can be had without re-igniting a buy panic. I will opt for that scenario as most likely. --- I would be most surprised if the week is down, or violently upward.

One thing is certain; we are on a cusp!

MarkeTalk (10/17/99; 23:12:28MDT - Msg ID:16743)
Gold: A Rumbling Volcano
For all of you market technicians, these next two weeks could be momentous in market history. CPI number comes out on Tuesday which just happens to be the anniversary date (Gann followers, take note) of the 1987 crash. The Friday before that big event had the market down 109 points. Our market last Friday was down 266 points. The next big date is Friday, October 29th which is also the anniversary of the 1929 crash. The market tends to have a memory of such events and tends to repeat in dramatic fashion. My best guess is that the DJIA will drop between 500-1000 points in a single day sometime by the end of October, with emphasis on October 19th and the 29th. If this occurs, gold will shoot up to a minimum of $350 and probably $400. Gold at $400 by the end of November seems to be a slam dunk because December options will have expired and First Notice Day for December futures contracts occurs on November 30th. We will see who will stand for delivery and who will go belly up. Finally, don't count out a international political or geophysical event (such as another 7.0 earthquake but this time in downtown LA) which could rattle the markets.

Simply Me (10/17/99; 23:08:20MDT - Msg ID:16742)
*>>>>------$0--------+>
Surely the wildest arrow I've ever let fly! I keep thinking back to ANOTHER saying "$100 the first night, $200 the next night", then gold goes to "any price". At that rate there will be no COMEX December gold futures. Boy I hope I understand what I'm saying and not making a fool of myself...because I really don't understand futures markets.


I "feel" more than think (because there is so little to go on) that this is the week to look for it. My feelings are not entirely without ground, though. I think the pressure for gold to rise is just too great to resist for much longer. Rumors and little splashes of gold are not enough against the current DOW numbers and the falling dollar. The cash is flowing, to pockets, to bonds...next comes gold.
I think the "shorters" are feeling it, too...and someone is going to break ranks and start the stampede this week. Then it's shut-down for the future's market.

By the way, I've been working long hours this weekend without much chance to keep up with all the postings, so I hope I haven't duplicated someone else's guess.

Although I know we can't all win the contest...Good Luck, to ALL the fine posters here.
Simply Me




Marius (10/17/99; 22:48:25MDT - Msg ID:16741)
My $.02 on GATA
Like several of you, I could live without the "Hannibal" & Shaka Zulu hyperbole. That said, my chance exposure to Murphy & GATA has enabled me to make a good deal of money, with a lot more on the way. That buys him a lot of slack as far as stylistic issues are concerned, and also means I'm not going to get in a snit if every message isn't a revelation!

The best course, assuming one isn't a gold stock holder: PAY THE MAN. Subscribe to the Cafe. Make a contribution to GATA, or buy one of their prints. Talk them up in other venues. There are some genuinely fine contributors to the Cafe, and a subscription is a bargain at twice the price! (It's what I plan to do as soon as the first check from my broker arrives next week.)

Personally, I think it's a hoot that a former AFL wide receiver ends up being the investment guru who hauled my sorry ass out of the fire! A lot of that was coincidence, but I still feel gratitude & an appreciation for the position the man has put himself in. It takes bigger (insert appropriate appendages here) ones than I've got to put my reputation on the line like he has. I always try to temper my opinion of GATA with a personal history lesson.

Netking (10/17/99; 22:45:06MDT - Msg ID:16740)
@Goldfly Re: world markets
I think if Turkey can do it again on Monday that's the place
to be . . . but then again my wife might be hard to convince
on that one!

NORTH OF 49 (10/17/99; 22:41:56MDT - Msg ID:16739)
Elevator guy
No No Sir! You've misunderstood me. T'was I who drug you off course. I was merrily trying to defend my position for doing so. And, I might add, we are all a little wiser, thanks to you, for it.

No49

onlychild (10/17/99; 22:39:13MDT - Msg ID:16738)
>>>>>>>>---------328.55---------->>>>>>>>>
I really feel that this is more like throwing darts than shooting arrows, I can put an arrow where I want it, however I'm not so good at darts. Greetings all, I'm not going to go into a long dissertation, rather I would like to express my confidence in the forces that manipulate this market. They seem to have run the price to a managable level, just high enough to make some of the players feel the pain, but not high enough to trash the system. I have the utmost faith in the handful of individuals that run the show, they're not ready to end the game.....yet.

AllanC (10/17/99; 22:34:19MDT - Msg ID:16737)
My best shot-correction
>>>>-----323.15----->

523.15?? Now that doesn't make sense. Sorry for the typo MK

Bonedaddy (10/17/99; 22:30:36MDT - Msg ID:16736)
Good Point Roark
I suppose you too have noticed all of the movies lately
where the guys in black suburbans roll up and cell phones are traced and big brother knows your every move. I believe that you are absolutely correct In saying that they want us to be afraid. I also believe that Hollywood is attempting to condition people for the "brave new world". What they don't count on is that while fear paralizes some, it is also a call to action for others. Sometimes I recall things I'd rather not have done and places I'd rather not have been. You know, the only times I have ever seen people be truly "heroic", we were all scared S*#@less!

canamami (10/17/99; 22:15:49MDT - Msg ID:16735)
*>>>>>>>- - - - - - -$306.67- - - - - - - ->>>>>>+>
Why did I pick this number?

1. I wanted to give previous posters at least $1.00 "space".
2. I think the shorts will win this week, and I don't think the equity markets will crash this week. Thus, the POG will decline (I hope dearly that I'm wrong.)

Why do I like this Forum?

1. A VERY high degree of CIVILITY (not always found elsewhere).
2. A VERY, VERY high standard of substantive discourse, on various topics.
3. Interesting insights which alter one's world view- e.g., the closing of the gold window in 1971 was a "default" by the U.S. (I had never even contemplated that); the lease rates are now declining because no one dare borrow gold at these low prices, as opposed to a CB putting gold on the market; the $US role as reserve currency means Americans could "get away" with "printing" their imports, instead of earning them.
4.Cutting edge information and analysis, long before similar ideas appear in the mainstream media.
5. The company of fine posters, whom one can tell are fine individuals.

Now, I must focus on my job - no more posting for October - or I will have to ask MK to suspend my posting privileges, lest I lose my job.

A prosperous month to all.



elevator guy (10/17/99; 22:02:08MDT - Msg ID:16734)
@ North of 49
Your most welcome for the answer. I'll try not to swerve off course too much here at the forum.

17,000' holes are incomprehensible to me. A deep one for us is 70'!

Back on the subject, did you see that URL Goldfly put up? Wow! Thanks, Goldfly! Markets are down, all over the world!
Its kinda scary! They say the market swooned on Friday, during the big crash of 87, and then there was Black Monday following! I'm sure glad I'm not in mutuals, and those other paper products. Paper gold is bad enough, and I'm trying to get out of that!


CoinGuy (10/17/99; 21:59:42MDT - Msg ID:16733)
Goldfly, GATA, and all
Goldfly,
Nice page for international info, I put a bookmark to that gem.

GATA's message was interesting? I'm still looking for more info on the future development of the Gold Cartels. I felt the African mines were looking for a little payback, as well as, security in the future by banning together to form a strong group. After the BOE sales, I wouldn't blame them...

Anyone think the market will dip, and close below the support level of 10,000? I think the Plunge Protection team probably had weekend meetings to develop an orderly market for Monday. Watch for quick rally's on one or two Dow stocks(via the PPT), but overall market weakness. My humble opinion...

Coinguy

JCTex (10/17/99; 21:56:56MDT - Msg ID:16732)
ORO: enough to survive
I have been gone from the oil patch for a good while. By "survive", do you mean at the 50% level, or do you mean that the domestic industry can maintain its 50% AND make up 50% coming from Saudi, Venezuela, etc.??

JCTex (10/17/99; 21:52:07MDT - Msg ID:16731)
Board Liability
Can't help but wonder just how long it is going to take Barrick's Board of Directors to figure out that Mr.Oliphant is opening them up to somewhere around 5-10 years of litigation...or worse. Now, lets see: lawyers at #100+ per hour, plus expenses...........for how many years?


Strad Master (10/17/99; 21:48:51MDT - Msg ID:16730)
Gold Prediction
I have no idea where gold could be at the end of this week but why not take a stab at it before the deadline? Couldn't hoit, eh?

>>>>>>>-----------$322--------+>

AllanC (10/17/99; 21:42:26MDT - Msg ID:16729)
My best shot
>>>>----523.15------>

Whew....just made it in time.

I think the POG will stabilize at these levels, with a little support this week from the shaky markets and the trade numbers about to be released. No I don't think it will retrace to 280- 285 since were not talking silver here, which has a tendency to rise and retrace half the gain. Longer term I think we've started the bull market, the fed had to inflate rather than risk deflation. I think it's too late to stop it now. Those trade numbers will be very telling in the months and years to come, as investors will start to focus on them. Good luck to all the physical holders here, you are all on the right road . As for the gold paper players, you have little concept of money and risk, you will no doubt be the first to sell out and I can't wish you luck. Sorry but it had to be said.



ORO (10/17/99; 21:20:12MDT - Msg ID:16728)
Mike55 US - oil
There is enough for the US to survive on after the Arab oil is gone, for a few years out. Then high temperature steam extraction can bring back another 20% return on the old wells.
The Arab oil will be used first, if only because it is the cheapest to extract, if you are actually willing to pay for it. The US has not been willing to pay for anything. In future it must. Therefore, the US oil industry will have a bit of the good and a bit of the bad. The good part is that the $ price of oil will rise tremendously. The bad part is that because the change is solely due to the trashing of the dollar, the costs of US production will rise more.
On a gold standard, oil is cheap. US oil companies will only survive with the few best oil fields or if the US subsidizes domestic oil.

Goldfly (10/17/99; 21:04:52MDT - Msg ID:16727)
Angel

Angel, you're still around! Did you catch "16 Tons" a couple weeks ago? How'd you like it?


Goldfly (10/17/99; 20:50:38MDT - Msg ID:16726)
WOW!! Check this markets page!
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Asia is sinking fast! And it's early yet.........


Fasolt (10/17/99; 20:13:31MDT - Msg ID:16725)
Fasolt:kudos to MK, TownCrier, Another, FOA, Bill Murphy, et al
I visit this website daily, and it's various posters have
contributed substantially to my understanding of the Fog & Mirrors Game, otherwise known as POG. If I were a bullion or
central banker, which I'm not, whether a follower of the
Keynesian, Classical or "What-the-Hell" school of economic theory, I'd check in here too, for there is much to be learned. Thx to all of you. Ah yes, my guess for next Friday's POG close:
>>>>------310.25------.

sstins (10/17/99; 20:04:20MDT - Msg ID:16724)
Friday Gold Close... >>----------$318--------->>
The giant is awake but is very groggy. We are definately on the way.

NORTH OF 49 (10/17/99; 19:57:17MDT - Msg ID:16723)
What the heck is that stuff on the end of my last post??????
I don't even have keys like that on my terminal!!!!

No49

NORTH OF 49 (10/17/99; 19:53:37MDT - Msg ID:16722)
Elevator guy--Wow!! Like everything else, there is so much to learn about it!!
I really appreciate the time it must have taken to respond to what I have to admit, was an off topic subject, but of interest to many of us I'm sure. Especially the safety aspect. I've no doubt there are few amongst us that, at some time in their lives, while riding an elevator didn't contemplate "I wonder what would happen if----?"

On the drilling side, I have only seen one disaster in which the driller, while pulling out of the hole, lost count of the number of joints of pipe he had pulled, and "crowned the blocks". Basically, he ran the blocks up until they collided with the crown sheaves. The one and a half inch cable was no match for the 2,350 horsepower pulling on it, and down came blocks, 1,800 feet of cable, 14,000 feet of drill string (which headed back into a 17,000 foot hole) and a whole lot of derrick lights. To this day I'll never understand how no one was injured!
Again, thanks for your time and expert

Netking (10/17/99; 19:52:38MDT - Msg ID:16721)
POG...my shot
>>>>>-----$365.47------>>>>.
Scenario; DOW becomes DOWN on 21st/22nd, panic in the street.Frantic activity at Comex & physical market. Emergency meetings held by the 'plunge protection team'.


diston5 (10/17/99; 19:40:51MDT - Msg ID:16720)
>>--------$304.00----------+>>>
Knights and Ladies of the Round Table:

My apologies for the SHORT-TERM pessimistic guess. My personal chart analysis actually is very bullish longer-term than this Friday, but I feel we are in a bullish pennant that must dip precipitously before ascending to the next target level of $400+! I feel last Friday's small rise was only a retracement before the last capitulation to the forces of dark, and then resurrection!
By the way, I am a glutton for punishment: I never saw any opinions regarding my contest entry some weeks ago to: Americans spend without restraint... I hope someone read it?

Phos (10/17/99; 19:33:34MDT - Msg ID:16719)
@ORO (10/17/99; 17:59:53MDT - Msg ID:16708)
You say FOA is 'plugged in' and a good source of information on what is going on in the gold world (with which I would fully agree). Another good source of information, at a different but valuable level, is SEQUIN on Kitco. I have noticed lately that his posts have been very much on the mark as he is in the business. I would suggest USAGOLD fans check the other site (much chaff but some good wheat too). He does not post often. You can use the browser search for his Acronym.

Black Blade (10/17/99; 19:23:50MDT - Msg ID:16718)
Short update
Gold up $0.55 to $315.25 (so far). s&p futures are positive +0.70 (for now), at this level a flat to barely positive opening (don't know current fair value). Maybe the markets will continue their pattern of rise at the open and sell at the end of the session. We shall see. Meanwhile, Nikkei down -515, and the Japanese markets continue downward. Looks like an interesting day tomorrow, nothing as dramatic as last week. All eyes are on European markets tonight.

YGM (10/17/99; 19:13:00MDT - Msg ID:16717)
Chris Powell
Well having read your post I sure feel something now, I can't tell if it's good or bad. Thanks for showing us all what class our point men have. I never ever have doubted you, Bill or John and I'm sure you know that. My critisism is meant to be constructive at worst. Go Gold & Go Gata--Best Regards and keep up the fight, you're getting more voices in the wilderness every day--YGM.

elevator guy (10/17/99; 19:03:18MDT - Msg ID:16716)
@North of 49
Sorry I couldn't respond in a timely manner.

Elevator ropes have a different winding, and are generally much more flexible than steel braided ropes found in other industrys. In the elevator industry, we generally check a few things about hoist ropes like this:

1. What is the age of the rope? There is no age limit, but it helps make decisions.
2. What is the original diameter of the rope? As the hemp core becomes degraded, and the rope gets stretched out, the rope shrinks in diameter. We watch for this.
3. We also examine the lays of rope, and look for strand breaks in the valleys, and on the crown. The rate of breakage is a rough gauge of the life expectancy of the rope.
4. We look for rust, or "rouge". (I don't know why we don't just call it rust!) A rope should be well lubricated. Rusted ropes get replaced.
5. We check for crown wear. This is shown by elongated flat spots, on what should be round strands.
6. The rope terminations are examined for integrity.

All the above checks are useful for determining the factor of safety of hoist ropes. Thats not all there is to it, but thats the basics. It varies greatly depending on the particular job. ie
Is the job near the ocean, with its salty air?
Was the job installed with many sheaves, (or pulleys), for the rope to be bent back and forth over?
How old is the job?
Are the ropes well lubricated?
Well, you get the point. Determination of safety is made on a case by case basis. As you get to know jobs "personally", as part of the overall maintenance program, you get an awareness as to what is normal, and what is not.

Some ropes can last for 15 years or more. Some installations get the ropes relaced in a year or two.

While I'm at it, I should mention that, usually, only one rope is needed to suspend the car and counterweight, or sometimes two. Many jobs have 5 ropes, some have 6 or more, depending on capacity. So you can see that the margin of safety is tremendous. If one rope were to break, it would not make the elevator fall. Even if two broke, you are still safe. Ropes rarely break. More common is that they just start to "strand out", which, even if no inspections were made, woukld give warning that replacement is needed. But inspections are made. And ropes don't just go all breaking all at the same time. Its a mathematical improbability. And, on top of all that, there is the governor, which applies the brakes, if the car overspeeds.

One time, during WW2, an airplane smashed into the Empire State buliding in NYC. The wing severed all hoist ropes, and the governor rope, and the car fell. The operator lived. Now how often does that happen? You are in more danger, statistically, when you drive your car, or even walk down stairs.

The worst thing an elevator is likely to do to you, is to get you stuck for a while. They are designed to stop if any system is not 1000% up to par. Even a speck of dust does not go un-noticed by the control, and the car is required to "fail safe", or stop. This doesn't mean that anything is broken. They are just extremely safety redundant, and designed that way to protect the riding public. But old stories and conceptions die hard, and besides, scary stuff makes better conversation.
Sorry for the long post. Is anyone still awake? 8^)

Ray Patten (10/17/99; 18:54:01MDT - Msg ID:16715)
10/22/99 Dec Gold close: >>>====308.10-----> POING!

The lease rates are telling us that the shorts are not going to give up all at once. It could be a battle until the longs start demanding delivery of December futures. After that, the fun could really begin!


WILEY: Your cyanide extraction process could be the only growth industry of the next few years. If Revelation, Chapter 6, Verse 6, "A day's wages for a ration of wheat" is about to happen, everyone would be trying to convert their jewelry into something to eat. Please tell us more about your process and when is the IPO.


Chris Powell (10/17/99; 18:51:39MDT - Msg ID:16714)
You're all friends to GATA
http://www.egroups.com/group/gata/260.html?
Dear Friends:

I've read with great interest tonight
all the posts here involving GATA, and
I hope everyone knows that their
observations and even criticism are
appreciated.

I'm sorry for the suggestion GATA may
have made yesterday that our announcement
today would involve a South African-based
gold cartel. I can see how such an
inference was drawn, but this is not what
we meant, not even as cheap hyperbole and
promotional flash.

Our general goal is simply to try to do
something on gold's behalf EVERY DAY and
to mobilize the honorable part of the
industry to stand up for itself and for
all that gold represents. I imagine that
sometimes we succeed better than at other
times but I will claim credit for GATA
for its always trying to be doing
something for the cause. We really believe
that we can win by mobilizing gold people
everywhere. Indeed, when I proposed forming
this organization, it was because I was so
damned tired of our complaining to ourselves
while doing absolutely nothing to change
what was going on in the real world.

The Denver gold show is where the gold world
will be this week. The people there have
great influence over the direction of the
gold price and world economic policy. So GATA
has to be there and, more important, we must
get the rest of the gold world there too.

That's what we're about at the moment. Please
forgive any misunderstanding, and thanks again
to all here, particularly to YGM, a very special
friend to GATA indeed. He has well earned the
right to criticize us all he wants, for no one
has supported us better.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



Goldiehawk (10/17/99; 18:45:26MDT - Msg ID:16713)
Gold Prediction
\\\\\\
===============305.60========>>>>>>
//////
I don't post too often, but I visit and read daily this Forum which I find is now better than Kitco. Sorry Kitco fans. I really hope than I am wrong in my prediction, but I don't trust those Hannibal Cannibals. Together, they are going to pull some strings at least on the short term.
When GATA was formally organised and started to make some noise, gold didn't go down but the gold stocks did. With this conference in Denver, I think the Hannibal Cannibals are going to use all their ammunitions this week and perhaps next, and their best one is demoralization of the goldbugs. And like someone mentionned this morning, they may increase their production or at least advertise it to bring the POG down and to let the big guys get out of their big jam. ABX are not going to give up that easily, they know too many people in high places!!
Again, I hope I am wrong as I aim for a >$1000 POG soon !!!
But I am not too confident about Oct,22. I guess I have been burnt too many times. The Hannibal Cannibals have still a lot of ammunitions, but sooner than later they will run out. Then, we will have finally our Golden days.

Angel (10/17/99; 18:30:32MDT - Msg ID:16712)
>>>>>>--------------------347.70--------------------->>>>>>>>>
What this forum means to me: I LOVE THIS FORUM !!!!!
There is really nothing else I can say except I haven't had this much of an education since Grad school. Thanks to all of the USA Gold Professors and of course our esteemed Dean Michael Kosares.

elevator guy (10/17/99; 18:23:22MDT - Msg ID:16711)
@YGM
What does it take to get on the GATA Honor Board? I never want name recognition, which to me is vanity, but maybe "elevator guy" looks a little too campy? But anyway, I will strive to put my money where my mouth is, and try to be a GATA supporter like you. Enough talk!

mike55 (10/17/99; 18:10:41MDT - Msg ID:16710)
ORO: Repost of Earlier Message
ORO -- Here's a partial repost of my earlier response regarding "Rollover", and a new question for you or anyone else interested in commenting. Thanks.

I've read a few books on the subject of the gold for oil deals. There's no question in my mind that this has been fact for a long time. We will see what the future brings regarding US $/euro/gold for oil linkage. The corroboration I've found in reading your postings and those of many of the other astute people here, combined with reading "Oil, God, and Gold", "The Prize", and "In the Footsteps of Giants", leaves no doubt to the validity of the deals. As you noted, the deals have been in effect since 1937 originally on various concession agreements, and even earlier on others. In the later 1920's, when the main interest on the part of the Saudis was to grant exploration privileges for the search of water, the payment was made in part or full with gold. The natural extension of the exploration, of course, was the discovery of oil reserves, and in some cases gold and other precious metals and minerals. Thanks for all your sharing of knowledge and understanding at this site.

ORO/All -- So now as we approach the year 2000, where the confluence of the debt bubble, equities (over)valuation, euro, gold shorts, various carry trades, date rollover jitters, etc. have to face each other more directly than in the past, what do you see regarding oil in the near-term and long-term? I believe the US imports roughly 50%(?) of its oil, and let's say that between temporary delivery issues related to the date rollover, and the possible (probable) payment for oil in euros instead of dollars, what does this bode for the US domestic oil fields? Cost of US production may not be a controlling factor depending on the way things play-out over the long run. I know that many US fields have fallen into disrepair over the last 20 years due to the extortion we've forced on the OPEC countries in carrying US debt in exchange for low prices of their resources. We are notorious for our methods of getting the other guy's resources one way or the other before dipping into our own. And if we don't have a certain type of resource of our own (food, minerals, raw/finsihed goods, strategic geographic location, etc.), we just keep them in financial slavery or take over their country or government. Oops, sorry for rambling....I get so little computer time with three sons using the machine for homework that the pent-up thoughts come to the surface when I can get on. Back to the question at hand: Knowing that some of the US oil fields are water/mud filled and would take some time to reactivate, but that some could be brought back into production to supplement those currently producing, what are the thoughts on the long-term future of US oil production? Thanks to all.


wiley (10/17/99; 18:08:14MDT - Msg ID:16709)
POGuess
Newby here but been lurking since the start. My shot at POG >>>--------------$369----------------+>>> and my reasoning--I was born @6:39 but that's way too high for friday as is 936 or 963.Since I'm a newborn bug with a larva like brain that deductive reasoning will have to do.

I too want to thank all who gather here. I'm getting an education that is phenominal without having to spend a cent on tuition. I haven't posted before because I have, as a sub-freshman, nothing to offer such an AUgust group. So you don't get my postings but you all, and I mean ALL have my sincere thanks, my utmost respect and my humble lurkage.

I got interested in gold about four years ago--Mainly because I LIKE gold. I like the glitter, the heft and feel as well as the fine things you can do with it. And, it was cheap, out of favor with the "IN" crowd on Wall Street and has been money in any part of the world for thousands of years. I started with a single Maple Leaf and am now into a new hobby of cyanide extraction from electronic parts, costume jewelery and whatever else comes my way. Keeps me out of the bars.

Got Gold? extract you some.

ORO (10/17/99; 17:59:53MDT - Msg ID:16708)
The Invisible Hand
I understand what you are saying, but you see, the distress of the shorts is not necessarily going to translate into immediate action. They are still trying not to break ranks. Still looking for new sources. Perhaps the Russians actually expect to get their gold back if it is loaned out.
Main point is pretty much that the US/IMF side is in a daze. The IMF, at least, figured out that the jig is up and started looking for a way for it to retain its position. The commercial shorts are probably being held at bay by Morgan and possibly Goldman Sachs. The current financial power structure is trying to hold on and still hope they can find a way to gain the upper hand.
Short of war, they can't.
When they break rank and run (UBS and Ashanti) there will be a mad scramble, and prices can go anywhere. FOA is the only one among us plugged in enough to know what to expect per a particular date.
Right now I think the shorts are trying to figure out what to do individually and together (see Denver Conference).


Netking (10/17/99; 17:47:10MDT - Msg ID:16707)
@ Andrew the Kiwi
Re:Gold in New Zeland; Hello, we have limited options for
sourcing here compared with our US forum friends but this
may help you;
Call, Morris & Watson Ltd, P/Metal Refiners & Dealers,
Ph 09-634 2035(Auckland). They have sold out of Maples &
Gold Kiwi's for the moment but have Sth African K's as they
do 1 & 10+ Oz ingots of pure (or granules).
*Also contact USAGold & find out how the sponsor of this
fine site can get some of their product to where you live in
New Zealand. This is not too difficult or expensive a
procedure to undertake & is worth looking into.




megatron (10/17/99; 17:41:49MDT - Msg ID:16706)
GATA
Corny language aside, Bill Murphy seems to be an honorable man against a insane posse of dis-honorable men. Certainly he's inteligent enough not to blab every detail that he comes across if in fact he plans to actually go after the REAL scumbags (Rubin, GoldmanSachs). I predict that if he is successful in 'outing' them, he will be vilified by the press for 'causing' the concurrent stock valuation wipe-out, because somehow, someone is to blame and the liberal garbage that run Washington will need a bigtime scapegoat. He may get eaten alive like Milken. Thank you Bill Murphy!!!!!!!!

Journeyman (10/17/99; 17:37:45MDT - Msg ID:16705)
>>>>-----$475.00------->
NOONE really knows, "prediction being very difficult, especially of the future," and major manipulation, apparently, by the "heavy hitters." So, any number being OK, I like $475 because on my recommendation, my mother law bought gold at $450 a few years ago, and gold @ $475 would take me off the hook. Why not? Regards, Journeyman

Tomcat (10/17/99; 17:23:00MDT - Msg ID:16704)
I know what GATA has been lacking.

Sure, it is easy to criticize GATA. To some, maybe their last action lacks substance (practical importance). But not to me.

Maybe their actions lacked a bit of surprise and romantic adventure but to me these actions did not lack substance. I'll tell you what they lacked. They lacked me!

What have I been doing? Sitting on the sideline and treating GATA actions like a TV show. I am ashamed of myself and at this point I would not be able to face Bill Murphey and look him in the eye.

I am better off today because of BILL and his small team and in return I have done nothing for them. To me GATA, Bill Murphey, Chris Powell, et al are heros. Single-handedly they are taking on the gold establisment.

I love this forum because it is a group that treats people fairly, with dignity, and respect. For many of us, gold represents the integrity, honour, and a better world for our children. So, with those factors in mind, I appeal to all of you to help Bill. Let's be heard and put our honour where our wallet is.

Let's see how much this forum can kick in to the cause. Today I'll send a check for a two hundred dollars in the mail to GATA. Who's next?

Perhaps we can help GATA in other ways. How about those faxes and e-mails to the different gold firms. Any other suggestions?

JCTex (10/17/99; 17:10:14MDT - Msg ID:16703)
PoppaBear: GATA
By the way, Poppa, I thoroughly enjoy your posts, and everyone else on this forum.

Number Six (10/17/99; 17:07:05MDT - Msg ID:16702)
First Post - contest entry - GATA
Just wanted to thank Michael Kosares for hosting THE best Gold internet site in the world - really, you don't know how important this site is to us! I've been lurking for a long time and get withdrawl symptoms (an urge to go and buy another ounce or two) if I don't get my daily dose!

I trust my instinct, it has never let me down. I feel as GoldBugs that we are now in the "end game" - to this end I made a large purchase of Philharmonics a few days ago to lock in the price now. A while back I also bought some Gold Eagles through Centennial. I took the trouble to deliver the cheque personally as I live in Denver, and whilst at the office I picked up Michaels two most excellent books.

Let me tell you that I spent days reading and re-reading "In The Footsteps Of Giants" which chronicles the oil for gold deal and details the "thoughts" of ANOTHER with superb commentary and charts from Michael. As having worked in Saudia Arabia for a few years, and travelled extensively in the Middle east, I have a good feel for the Arab mindset and the importance of gold to them on a daily basis - one only has to enter the Gold Souk in Jeddah to be immediately blown away by the whole experience. Truly amazing.

I had already been scouring the archives and doing my homework on ANOTHER and FOA, but this book really hit home with the most important early posts layed out so eloquently.

Which brings me to FOA - Sir it is a real privilege to read your daily commentaries - we all wish to sincerely thank you for gracing us with your laser-like insights on a daily basis. Truly, we would be lost without you, heading in the right direction yes, but possibly open to making staggeringly wrong financial mistakes. Bravo Sir!

Lastly the whole forum is I believe the best I have found on the net in any capacity - I feel that I have come to know you all and I am truly overawed that this wealth of experience and kindness exists for those who choose to partake of it... too many names to mention but thank you one and all!

To business.

At some point the markets are going to explode at the LBMA and COMEX. And it's commig soon I feel. Combined with the unholy mess on Wall Street that I feel will hit hard this week, I do believe the markets are interellated... to this end I'm going to go out on a limb and say

>>>>>>>======= LOCK LIMIT =======>>>>>>>

The markets being closed - last price, if I have to specify one, being $477 :)

Hey, at some point soon this will happen...:)

GATA

Like my friend flierdude, I stayed up all night (actually working the night shift) monitoring the web for commentary on this "announcement"...

Well I must say I was disappointed. GATA needs to play hardball, NOW, time is of the essence... the shorts are on the ropes, let's for God's sake finish this surgically... I hate to say this as I think they, GATA, are doig a wonderful job...

To me, they should have launched a Class Action suit, or at least launched some sort of suit for damages against the worst offender - the evidence is out there, paper trails etc.

The Miners for their part should have formed a Cartel... or an "association", with a massive international press conference to highlight the abuses they, their workers and their countries have suffered (not to mention us poor suck... uh, investors :)...

Let them know we mean business... I've personally lost a lot of money on mine shares and now that I know what has been going on I am appalled that we cannot as a group of GoldBugs fight back with venom... hit the Fed, hit the major players - that's what the Law Firm should be advising on.

Once y2k comes along they will all have a "get out of jail free" card and they WILL use it - count on it.

Rant mode off :-)

Thanks for listening...

Go Golden Sun, Silver Moon and The Horse With No Name!


JCTex (10/17/99; 17:03:50MDT - Msg ID:16701)
PoppaBear: GATA
At first, I was disappointed, myself. However, after I thought about it a little, I decided that Bill is in the trenches [probably even in some danger], and I am getting a free ride. If he wants me to email a few folks, that is plenty okay with me, and it is the least I can do. I am not speaking for you or anyone else, just me.

The Invisible Hand (10/17/99; 17:01:57MDT - Msg ID:16700)
October 22 *>>>>------ $ 523.25 --------+>
I came back to my office on this Monday morning at 12:30 am to complete my message

The Invisible Hand (10/17/99; 4:59:43MDT - Msg ID:16633)
October 22 *>>>>------ $ 523.25 --------+>
Come on, a little imagination, GATA is speaking this afternoon (London, England time)

in which I forgot to write what gold means to me.

So here I go (and I will motivate my price). I bought my first Maple Leaf in 1989 (when the price was $ 400) at the same time that my Belgian Banker (Kredietbank) sold me some grams of paper gold. After some months, I sold the paper gold. Later the Belgian government forbade it to Kredietbank. it was only recently that I realised that I had bought paper gold.

What does gold mean to me? Gold means justice and truth (A=A). Gold means a free economy in which price fixing agreements are allowed to exist because anyway they can't work without government help/coercion. GATA should attack governments helping price-fixers. GATA should NOT use the antitrust laws which Alan Greenspan has characterised as follows:
"The world of antitrust is reminiscent of Alice's Wonderland: everything seemingly is, yet apparently isn't, simultaneously. It is a world in which competition is lauded as the basic axiom and guiding principle, yet "too much" competition is condemned as "cutthroat". It is a world in which actions designed to limit competition are branded as criminal when taken by businessmen, yet praised as "enlightened" when initiated by the government. It is a world in which the law is so vague that businessmen have no way of knowing whether specific actions will be declared illegal until they hear the judge's verdict - after the fact."
(GREENSPAN, A., "Antitrust", in: RAND, A., (ed.), Capitalism: the Unknown Ideal, New York, New American Library - Signet, 1967, p.63 - based on a paper given at the Antitrust Seminar of the National Association of Business Economists, Cleveland, September 25, 1961, published by the Nathaniel Branden Institute, New York, 1962.)

Now the PRICE I'm proposing, FIVE HUNDRED TWENTY THREE POINT TWENTY FIVE. This is much higher than all other entries. Perhaps it's because English is not my mother tongue but I'm reading
- FOA's 15,495 of Oct 9, 1999 as saying that something will happen before Oct 23, 1999
- FOA's 16,557 of Oct 16, 1999 as saying that gold will very soon cross the 500 mark.

Why is it that even this Forum does not seem to want to take FOA's predictions to their logical conclusion? It's because I have asked this question ("Why don't you take (matter X, Y or Z) to its logical conclusion?") and never received an answer that I chose gold. But even then, here the assembled Ladies and Knights, who should know better, don't want to draw conclusions.
WHY? WHY? WHY
doesn't anybody dare to cross the 400 mark when FOA has demonstrated that the 500 mark will easily be crossed before Oct 23?
WHY? WHY? WHY?

andrew the kiwi (10/17/99; 16:50:07MDT - Msg ID:16699)
Netking
Q. where do you source your gold and silver here in NZ? as you are probably aware, supplies of silver(maples etc) are generally non-existent.

andrew the kiwi (10/17/99; 16:42:51MDT - Msg ID:16698)
gold prediction
>>>>>>>>--------------$319-------->

what a wild prediction my keyboard made on my behalf, mistook the 2 for a 3,....now thats better.

andrew the kiwi (10/17/99; 16:42:50MDT - Msg ID:16697)
gold prediction
>>>>>>>>--------------$319-------->

what a wild prediction my keyboard made on my behalf, mistook the 2 for a 3,....now thats better.

Netking (10/17/99; 16:35:15MDT - Msg ID:16696)
POG & the '87 Crash
Before the crash of '87 the market price of Gold was well
below its fundamental value. In the weeks that followed the
stock market crash the POG approached $500 an ounce as the
Federal Reserve began to pump money into the economy. Looking
at the peak prices of the first two Gold supercycles in 1864
and again in 1980 & we have some answers as to how high this
next supercycle may go of which we are definitely in now. I
don't want to pin numbers here or bore you but take the 1980
peak figure of $850 an ounce plus the allowance for inflation
on that for 19/20 years & you've got a Mt Everest target to
aim for in this current supercycle. POG will break out
sooner than many think but I'm ready.


YGM (10/17/99; 16:34:58MDT - Msg ID:16695)
Leigh
http://www.gata.org/honor_board.html
Since you feel so strongly about GATA how about putting your name up here on the Honor Board. These people and many other contributors ARE ALSO the Warriors of GATA.
Like I said it's not just a one man show. I know as I've spent dozens of hrs at this keyboard on their (our & your gata) behalf. Pappa Bear has a point.--YGM.

andrew the kiwi (10/17/99; 16:32:16MDT - Msg ID:16694)
gold prediction
>>>>>--------$219--------->

I would prefer to be a little more optimistic in the short term, but I anticipate more market manipulation to surpress gold which is likely to more than offset the global equity market jitters. This gives us a little more time to acquire that extra sovereign or two.

Thanks to all who post for illuminating gold in all its glory.
TAILPIECE "Frienship is like money, easier made than kept" Samuel Butler


YGM (10/17/99; 16:16:53MDT - Msg ID:16693)
Poppa Bear & triple posts----
(chuckle) at least no one can say they missed it-- Your comments are similar to the ones I recieve. Nobody wants Bill chastised or his great achievements belittled, just slow down on the hype and Shaka Zulu thing. We are all so poised for action that we don't need false starts. I felt like a kid waiting for xmas to come this AM & now I feel like Santa left a little gift w/ a lump coal. I remain a GO GATA gold miner....................Regards--YGM

andrew the kiwi (10/17/99; 16:16:38MDT - Msg ID:16692)
Bill, Elevator guy, Trader-vic, Flierdude
I appreciate all your replies re djx options.

Bill, do you like june options or are you spreading yourself more in feb and april?

spot gold now trading in Sydney, no action yet though.

Leigh (10/17/99; 16:05:34MDT - Msg ID:16691)
Poppa Bear
It's easy for you to criticize GATA, but since you're not in the thick of the battle, please give the warriors a break! You don't know what's really going on behind the scenes. Perhaps an announcement was originally scheduled for this morning, but Bill decided to put it off for a day or two to garner more support. There's a lot more going on here than we know about, so please be patient and give GATA the benefit of the doubt. I imagine they know what they're doing.

YGM (10/17/99; 16:02:17MDT - Msg ID:16690)
elevator guy
Thanks for your well appreciated response. I feel we share many thoughts. I too suffer from hair trigger reactions and I've been chastised for it by forum friends emails etc over the many months of this major battle for us Gold Believers.
Sometimes I wonder how many non-contributors have benefited greatly by Gatas' superb unvieling of the gold collusion crowd. Leigh IS right tho I should have mentioned this to Bill personaly but didn't and now I've caused a furor probably. My thoughts posted early today have been on many minds for along time tho and I felt it needed to be said. GATA has been a voice in the wilderness and a special vehicle for those like me who depend on the price of Gold not just for an investment return but for the basic necessities of life, a living. I posted at GE forum early today & since haven't been able to return to do damage control.
Seems a server is down somewhere along the line. If Bill takes offense to my thoughts he'll email me & then I'll explain my points. I know I'm sure sick and tired of all we say at these forums having to be so "Politically Correct".---------- I do btw read & enjoy your posts as well as most all others folks.--My best regards to all who stand up for gata, gold, themselves and the other guy----YGM.

Poppa Bear (10/17/99; 15:49:15MDT - Msg ID:16689)
Sorry for Tripple Post
Sorry for the tripple post, I kept getting an error message that said the message did not post.

Poppa Bear (10/17/99; 15:46:56MDT - Msg ID:16688)
Gata
I for one was very disappointed with the lack of substance to this so called big announcement. Bill Murphy's statements leading up to today's announcement was very misleading and added up to nothing more than a propaganda ploy. I quote the statements.

"Since the British gold sale, South Africa got real
angry and, led by Anglogold, it has been pushing full-
steam into creating an international gold cartel made
up of non-USA gold producers. "

"The rumor buzzing out of London tonight is that an
agreement has been reached and will be announced at a
big press conference soon."

"At 7:50 a.m. Central Daylight Time on Sunday morning
GATA and the "right flank" will make an important
announcement to every gold company shareholder in the
world."

Obviously, if indeed this was to be the announcement made today, then this would have had a very significant impact on the market and the POG. In my opinion, these were very reckless statements to make regarding the purpose of the Denver meeting. To me this only weakens GATA and causes a serious loss of credibility.

Don't get me wrong, I truly would like to see GATA make some headway in the fight against the manipulation of the market, but unfortunately today's announcement was a bad move made with very poor judgement. I certainly hope that in the future Bill Murphy would use greater discretion before he does something like this again.

I believe that GATA may be causing some heat in the market, but in all truthfulness, GATA probably had very little to do with the recent announcement made by the ECB. The ECB announcement was driven purely by the fundamentals of the market place and the high amount of risk that exists do to the over exposure of the derivatives.

I would speculate that as a result of the Denver meeting, we quite possibly could see just the opposite occur. It is feasible that all the members attending the Denver meeting may decide to increase supply, rather than decreasing supply to the market in order to further drive down prices so that they can safely exit their short positions. Don't under estimate the power that the bullion banks have. We are not out of the woods yet, and the battle has only just begun. We don't really know, who is on our side yet.




Poppa Bear (10/17/99; 15:45:45MDT - Msg ID:16687)
GATA
I for one was very disappointed with the lack of substance to this so called big announcement. Bill Murphy's statements leading up to today's announcement was very misleading and added up to nothing more than a propaganda ploy. I quote the statements.

"Since the British gold sale, South Africa got real
angry and, led by Anglogold, it has been pushing full-
steam into creating an international gold cartel made
up of non-USA gold producers. "

"The rumor buzzing out of London tonight is that an
agreement has been reached and will be announced at a
big press conference soon."

"At 7:50 a.m. Central Daylight Time on Sunday morning
GATA and the "right flank" will make an important
announcement to every gold company shareholder in the
world."

Obviously, if indeed this was to be the announcement made today, then this would have had a very significant impact on the market and the POG. In my opinion, these were very reckless statements to make regarding the purpose of the Denver meeting. To me this only weakens GATA and causes a serious loss of credibility.

Don't get me wrong, I truly would like to see GATA make some headway in the fight against the manipulation of the market, but unfortunately today's announcement was a bad move made with very poor judgement. I certainly hope that in the future Bill Murphy would use greater discretion before he does something like this again.

I believe that GATA may be causing some heat in the market, but in all truthfulness, GATA probably had very little to do with the recent announcement made by the ECB. The ECB announcement was driven purely by the fundamentals of the market place and the high amount of risk that exists do to the over exposure of the derivatives.

I would speculate that as a result of the Denver meeting, we quite possibly could see just the opposite occur. It is feasible that all the members attending the Denver meeting may decide to increase supply, rather than decreasing supply to the market in order to further drive down prices so that they can safely exit their short positions. Don't under estimate the power that the bullion banks have. We are not out of the woods yet, and the battle has only just begun. We don't really know, who is on our side yet.




Poppa Bear (10/17/99; 15:45:02MDT - Msg ID:16686)
GATA Anouncement
I for one, was very disappointed with the lack of substance to this so called big announcement. Bill Murphy's statements leading up to today's announcement was very misleading and added up to nothing more than a propaganda ploy. I quote the statements.

"Since the British gold sale, South Africa got real
angry and, led by Anglogold, it has been pushing full-
steam into creating an international gold cartel made
up of non-USA gold producers. "

"The rumor buzzing out of London tonight is that an
agreement has been reached and will be announced at a
big press conference soon."

"At 7:50 a.m. Central Daylight Time on Sunday morning
GATA and the "right flank" will make an important
announcement to every gold company shareholder in the
world."

Obviously, if indeed this was to be the announcement made today, then this would have had a very significant impact on the market and the POG. In my opinion, these were very reckless statements to make regarding the purpose of the Denver meeting. To me this only weakens GATA and causes a serious loss of credibility.

Don't get me wrong, I truly would like to see GATA make some headway in the fight against the manipulation of the market, but unfortunately today's announcement was a bad move made with very poor judgement. I certainly hope that in the future Bill Murphy would use greater discretion before he does something like this again.

I believe that GATA may be causing some heat in the market, but in all truthfulness, GATA probably had very little to do with the recent announcement made by the ECB. The ECB announcement was driven purely by the fundamentals of the market place and the high amount of risk that exists do to the over exposure of the derivatives.

I would speculate that as a result of the Denver meeting, we quite possibly could see just the opposite occur. It is feasible that all the members attending the Denver meeting may decide to increase supply, rather than decreasing supply to the market in order to further drive down prices so that they can safely exit their short positions. Don't under estimate the power that the bullion banks have. We are not out of the woods yet, and the battle has only just begun. We don't really know, who is on our side yet.




Chicken man (10/17/99; 15:44:09MDT - Msg ID:16685)
A contrarian's view....
>>>>>>----$225---->

The main thought for this price is liquidity...or should I say the lack of liquidity......I'm spending more time lurking rather than posting.....it is just easier to study the market (people) when sitting on the roost listening.....

Will post a note on 3,000,000 cent gold later in the week....the road will not be without tears of joy and many more tears of sorrow for all .....including gold bugs...!

elevator guy (10/17/99; 15:33:09MDT - Msg ID:16684)
@YGM
YGM, I didn't even take note of your name on your post. I just read the text, and it occurred to me, in a sort of general way, that there are "armchair quarterbacks" who are critical of Bill, but yet who do nothing to advance the causes of gold and freedom. But they like to sit in a safe iconoclast chat room and "preach to the choir", like a bunch of old ladies talking about the weather.
I didn't know that you did anything for GATA at all. Just shows how little I really know 'ya. I suffer from the "ready, fire, aim" malody of journalism. My apologies.
I was just afraid that with criticism, sometimes comes ostracisment, and that is not what Bill deserves. Sometimes a good man can get put in a bad light, and that destroys his message. "Sophmoric" is a word usually used in derision. I prefer to think of his "enveloping horn" strategy as animated narrative, descriptive of intent, and useful for rallying the fighting spirit of the troops. People need pep talks, especially in battle.
I'm probably very sensitive to anyone saying anything the slightest bit negative about Bill. Before I learned about USA Gold, and all the giants here, all I had to shed light on the gold situation was Bill Murphy and GATA, which is a great source for information. When he said "Now is the time to be agressively long", back in August, I think, I stuck in my claws at $260 spot, and I've been lovin' it ever since. So he is a hero to me, and always will be.
Since then, I've come to learn from FOA, and Another, among others. I think we all share the same goals. We are in the middle of a change in the financial landscape that will affect the lives of people around the world for years to come.
Again, I apologize if it seemed that I directed my defense of Bill at you. You are my brother in gold, and I need your input.
Thanks for your gentlemanly response, exibhiting the qualities of knighthood.

Netking (10/17/99; 15:16:49MDT - Msg ID:16683)
Stock Market
@FOA Great post yesterday.
@All, Our NZ stock market has just opened. As the first
market in the world open for this new week and as a market
largely owned offshore it may serve as an indicator together
with Australia in a couple of hours & Asia after that what
the market sentiment is heading into Wall street tonight our
time (can't help it if you guys area a bit behind ok!).
So far after 30 minutes we're down about %2.7 to %3.0 by the
look of things although it's hard to get the NZSE to supply
information for a few hours due to "technical problems" on
our automated exchange. - Updated later if any major changes
throughout Australasia today.


baba2 (10/17/99; 15:10:27MDT - Msg ID:16682)
contest..gata..and a comment
\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\________$321.70__________\\
///////////////// //

To All,
First Post.......
Thank You for an absolute wonderful forum.....I have read each post and have become educated beyond my imagination....The POG is a pure guess, as good as anyone's I suppose. As for GATA and some of the bashing that's been going on, I find it utterly disgusting. This guy is sticking his neck out so that each one of us can reap the rewards. You do not have to be a member to his Cafe as most of the posts wind up on the "free" net anyway. So if his posts are a bit corny at times is that any reason to castrate him...Let it go and why not do as he suggests. I have sent E-mails to Kinross and Barrick(not printable here).
Remember folks we are all on the same page and looking for the same end result. No reason to belittle anyone for their efforts.

BTW..... I re-upped for a second year with GATA the other day...



el St.One (10/17/99; 15:09:29MDT - Msg ID:16681)
>>>>>-----303.30------>>>>
A big drop in the Dow will pull everything down with it early in the week. A 50 to 62% pullback of the recent run in Gold would bottom between 285 and 295, then by Friday close Gold will recover to 303.30 Dec Comex. By the end of the week we should be calling MK if we can get thru. MK will your business phones be avaialble the weekend?

el

HopeingII (10/17/99; 14:46:13MDT - Msg ID:16680)
GATA & Bill Murphy

I have no way of knowing if there is any truth
to it whatsoever, but, some have suggested
that GATA's exposure of what has been going
on in the GOLD market was to some degree
responsible for the ECB announcement Sept. 26th.

If true, no matter what the degree of influence, I
personally feel Goldbugs owe Gata and Bill Murphy
much more than most realise.

Just my opinion.

Leigh (10/17/99; 14:22:13MDT - Msg ID:16679)
Battalion at Kitco
A while ago I mentioned that there were a few malcontents over at Kitco complaining about the GATA announcement. But there are MANY MORE faithful posters who have sent lots and lots of faxes and e-mails to their gold stock execs. Sorry if I seemed to be deriding all of Kitco (I wasn't!).

Golden Vanity (10/17/99; 13:39:49MDT - Msg ID:16678)
FOA
Though we haven't been formally introduced, I would like to express
my sincere appreciation for the information and education provided
by You and Another. In a world where so many doors are closed and
dis-information and rumors are rampant you and ANOTHER stand (mountains)
above the landscape and I hope you will not think me presumptuous
if I address you both, (friends).
I feel very fortunate to have been afforded the time...and means to be able to
utilize modern technology for gathering information and assessing situations
as they apply to my families safety and financial well being.
As I read and assimilate the vast amount of opinions out there on the state of the
global gold markets, and what be the next moves, I have only to compare each
one to your last post....FOA (10/16/99; 16:23:27MDT - Msg ID:16574).
That post cuts the (static) out of the market and shows the situation as it is.
All others at USA-G...be assured your thoughts posted here are not in vain, do not fall on deaf
ears.
Thank you( Friends)!!

YGM (10/17/99; 13:38:24MDT - Msg ID:16677)
Leigh--
Thanks for clarifying that. Well the hype let many minds (mine included) run wild w/ hopes and anticipation of bigger things and bigger things is what we await. Open discussion does more than personal e-mails. Bill gets 100s I'm sure and many trying to give advice. I've been advocating e-mails to mining exec's since last Jan & Feb. I just want Gata and it's agenda dicussed more. It's not just a one man show. Regards to you --YGM.

Leigh (10/17/99; 13:25:24MDT - Msg ID:16676)
YGM
No, I wasn't directing criticism at you personally; there were some posters on Kitco also who were saying GATA's attack was too little, too late. I don't know whether that's true or not (again, I'm not a stockholder), but I just feel that right now GATA and Bill Murphy really, really need our support. Any criticism can be directed to them privately. That's all.

YGM (10/17/99; 13:15:54MDT - Msg ID:16675)
Liegh
Don't take this wrong as it's not meant to be rude, but I was standing up for GATA long before most of you knew it existed and I made these earlier comments because some gata supporters have told me they feel the same way. Many are worried that gata will become nothing more than a stepping stone for Bill personally and promo for Cafe. That I DO NOT agree with. I know better than most how hard he has worked and Chris and John. Go back among the first 46 messages at E-groups and you'll see who YGM is and where I'm coming from.---YGM.

goldnbones (10/17/99; 13:09:04MDT - Msg ID:16674)
my shot
####-----$339.75----->

Hi all! Well, I am afraid I more or less just shut my eyes and let fly!

The funny thing is that on Oct 22 I will be flying out to go review a small mine, and I won't find out who won for a week or so! In fact, I won't even know what went on with the POG either! The suspense will be great.

It has been a long cold season, with the POG tanking like it did. Hopefully we will start to get the investments coming back so we can start finding more gold in the ground instead of mining the CB's!

Gold....Go find some, or buy some...but get you some!

YGM (10/17/99; 13:04:50MDT - Msg ID:16673)
elevator guy
Being as I'm the only poster who had critisism of Gata I take it you've directed your comments (@ least partially) at my thoughts. Let me say first that I'n NOT belittleing Bill. I don't expect him to entertain or make me happy. I feel enough has been said about Hannibal Cannibals and Shaka Zulu.
Time to move on, and act a little more serious. FYI--I was one of the first to get involved w/ gata (I hold # 25 of the gata prints) I pledged 2 oz of gold at around the $7,000.00 mark and subsequently sent 3 oz, which raised $1,060.00 for the cause, not to mention 3 to 400 emails I sent out w/ the origional Gata manifesto. I've thanked Bill, Chris and John many many times at forums and personally for all their hard work. Like I said last Feb. "once Gata has a measure of success everybody will get on the bandwagon and act like they've always been a supporter." I sure hope you were there back then when few were. Anyways rest assured I take no measure of offense to comments posted here as we all have our own views. Regards---YGM.

Leigh (10/17/99; 13:03:45MDT - Msg ID:16672)
elevator guy
THANK YOU, e-guy, for standing up tall for Bill Murphy and GATA! I wish I could have helped them this morning; however, I'm not a gold stock owner. If they need any help from us non-stock owners, they can COUNT on my support! Just let us know!

Leigh (10/17/99; 12:54:17MDT - Msg ID:16671)
Peter Asher
Thanks for your link containing free gold stock investment advice from Goldman Sachs.

"There is a greater-than-should-be perceived notion that all hedge books are potential issues right now. They're not in my view," said Daniel McConvey, analyst with U.S. brokerage Goldman Sachs in New York. "The average amount of production that North American companies have hedged is probably less than two years. I think the market here can deal with that and the counterparties can deal with that," McConvey added.

Oh, OK, Mr. McConvey, we'll go right out and buy Barrick and--have any MORE suggestions for us?

Journeyman (10/17/99; 12:51:25MDT - Msg ID:16670)
DON'T UNDERESTIMATE HUMAN NATURE: The SCOT @ Message ID 16668
http://www.webleyweb.com/tle/libe53-19990815-04.html
We've been sold a bill of goods as far as depicting human nature as evil. Perhaps this "evil human nature" paradigm has more to do with media's "dramatic imperative" -- what they show on TV & movies, news has to be dramatic in order to sell. Also, most "evil" (if killing millions is evil) is done by governments. Esitmates by R.J. Rummell are that governments in the 20th century alone are responsible for the deaths of about 152,000,000 human beings. Amnesty International estimates 200,000,000. See link above for a lucid presentation of this juxtaposition of individual human nature as OK vs. government "nature." Regards, Journeyman

NORTH OF 49 (10/17/99; 12:41:01MDT - Msg ID:16669)
Elevator guy--I agree with Leigh
There have been a couple or three times that I have posted a thought looking for comments from which there came none. Most recent case in point, my concern about small coin dealers--"Mom and Pop" operations, should the price of bullion run wild. Don't sweat it. Everybody is either on edge or very excited due to the events of the last few days, and some peoples' thoughts just don't stay with them for very long. I am just as guilty as any, although my wife leans more towards the senility angle.
I quite enjoyed your piece about the overhead description of a earthquake in full deployment. I also gathered from that piece (not to mention your handle) that you are in the "verticle transportation" industry. I have a question that has entered my mind from time to time and you may be just the person to shed some light on it for me. In the drilling Industry, (oil) which I am associated with from time to time, I have seen the drillers performing a prodedure that I believe is called "slip and Cut the Line." This is a process of trailing off a predetermined amount of drilling line, the cable used to hoist and lower the down-hole drilling assembly, and cutting it off. This discarded length is then replaced at the other end of the drilling line from a spool of new cable. Very accurate records are kept as to the "pound or ton/milage" usage on the drilling line, and is "slipped and cut" accordingly.
My question, in your industry, is there a similar system to keep track of how many times an elevator hoist cable has been run through a cycle, so to speak? I realise that Drilling rigs are hoisting in the neighbourhood of 500 tons and commercial elevators only a fraction of that, but am curious anyways.

No49

The Scot (10/17/99; 12:19:05MDT - Msg ID:16668)
CLINT H #1 666 3
Clint, thanks for your response. Your questions on returning to a healthly society are valid; however, my opinion will probably be very unpopular to many on this site.

I believe, and it is only my opinion, we shall never see those times again. I believe the next century, if it lasts that long, will be one of survival. Not because of y2k but because of the nature of man. We have abondoned all sense of morality and must now pay the price. The best window into the future, that I can recomend, is the last book in the New Testimant. I think we are at the threshold of those times.
Personal possesion of physical Gold will give the possessor the chance for survival, for a time, for him and his family.
Don't let me discourage you, this is good news.
Sincerely, The Scot

St. George (10/17/99; 12:04:30MDT - Msg ID:16667)
Contest
*>>>-----$360.50----+> Whether this will be the actual COMEX closing price on 10/22/99 I cannot say for certain, however, I know that at some future point in time and space the closing price will be this and more it's a matter of timing and patience. History is repeating itself. Just as the IMF and US Treasury attempted to control/supress gold through their failed auctions in 75/79 only to see the pog explode, the cheap gold today which has been made available at giveaway prices by forces trying to control the pog is getting sucked up never to be seen again.and another price explosion is imminent. Human nature and simple mathematics still have not changed nor has golds rightful place in finance and commerce After $360 I believe all hell breaks loose as discussed by many here. Something big in the financial world will happen in October which will positively impact gold. I'm betting on Monday 10/25/99 not Friday 10/22/99.

Peter Asher (10/17/99; 12:02:18MDT - Msg ID:16666)
Gold giants gather as investors hedge their bets
http://news.excite.com/news/r/991017/13/minerals-gold-hedging
It's Mainstream news today

elevator guy (10/17/99; 12:01:27MDT - Msg ID:16665)
Go GATA!
It is not Bill Murphy's job to give us good news. We should not look to him to make us happy, or entertain us. He has worked hard and risked his life to fight for gold. Don't belittle his spirited tactics, and animated narrative. Don't forsake his cause, because you don't want to join him in battle. Have you worked as hard for gold as he? Become part of the solution, and don't criticise your brother in gold, who obviously has stuck his neck out for us all. "If we don't hang together, most assuredly, we will hang separatrely" (Loosely quoted)

Roark (10/17/99; 11:42:24MDT - Msg ID:16664)
"Be Very Afraid"
In case anyone hasn't noticed, that is what your government wishes you to be. Because, to quote a mantra from "Dune," "Fear is the mindkiller..." Martial Law? Yes, that appears to be Bill Clinton's fondest wish, and three-peat, too! Bonedaddy, you said they will come for the gold. Will they really? Or have they already achieved their ends by making us believe they will?

Fearful people are paralyzed and powerless. Legs turn to jelly, minds to mush. But guess what? It doesn't have to be that way!

Just suppose it is mostly a bluff? Sure, power mongers always want more power, but is it likely they actually have the means to pull off such a thing as Martial Law and confiscation of gold in this big country full of guns? And while we're on the subject, will our own troops fire on us and keep on firing? I think mass mutiny is much more likely in such a scenario.

But remember this. If you can psyche out your opponent before a match, it is already over. I have no intention of giving away my power to others, which is all fear really is for.

On a more positive note, we can all agree that gold is about become very expensive, and whoever holds the physical will prosper. THERE IS NOTHING ANYONE CAN DO ABOUT IT. So let us enjoy what is about to happen. After all, haven't you all waited long enough?

The shorters, BBs, CBs, hedgers, PPT, FED, Comex and all others who oppose gold know the gig is up. Right now they are in damage control mode.

But what they will not easily stomach is goldbugs enjoying a market turning in their favor. And so we are made to believe that something sinister is about to spring upon us and take away that which we deserve. Because they know that we have been on the run for so long now that we do not know what it feels like to be on the winning team. They think they broke our spirit a long time ago, that we are too conditioned to even recognize a victory when it sit squarely before us.

How ’bout we prove them wrong. If you have gold, you don't have to do anything but relax and enjoy the ride.

If anyone insists on trying to figure out what sinister thing they are going to do next, go ahead. I think it is wasted energy, since you cannot stop it anyway.

Please let go of this scarcity mentality, because the energy your thoughts generate actually manifest in the material world, and draws toward you that which you fear.

This is what they want you to do. We can each overcome these forces by recognizing that we each hold the power of our own destiny. No one can take it away unless we willingly give it away.



Clint H (10/17/99; 11:31:32MDT - Msg ID:16663)
The Scot Msg ID:16653)
The Scot, in your Sunday Ramblings you state,

<<<<What I have seen this country become is a country of retailers. We, by planning or by accident, have based our whole economy on selling to each other, products made elsewhere. This has, by and large, destroyed our
manufacturing base and the assembly worker along with it.
The few products assembled here are made with components made elsewhere. Weather this is good or bad, I'm not sure?
We have, at the cost of most of our producers, stopped using our own natural resources and are rapidly depleting the resources of other countries. Don't get me wrong; I am not a conservationist by today's standards. I believe God gave us these resources and we have the right to use them, "wisely.">>>>>

It is petty clear to me that those who set aside gold in preparation for the coming events will retain and gain assets. These assets will be the foundation for the recovery of our nation the USofA.

I have read some articles about hyper inflation and its painful effects but I am short on information about recovery strategy. Where do we start? Basic manufacturing? Other areas? I haven't a clue. I have been so busy getting here that I haven't thought about how to get there.... or even where "there" is.

I would welcome your thoughts. Anyone else who may have thoughts please jump in. How do we responsibly handle any wealth carried forward for our families and our nation?

elevator guy (10/17/99; 11:26:49MDT - Msg ID:16662)
Thanks, Leigh!
Sometimes you have to wonder what effect you are having on others, since with an internet chat forum there is no feedback, except if someone posts back.
When people talk face to face, there is the spoken language, and body language. And even on the phone, there is spoken language, with its intricate inflections. But here in the internet chat room, its hard to tell what effect you are having, if any.
I'd have to say that I enjoy 99 44/100ths % of the posts here, and always look forward to learning something.
I have no backround in investing, and this forum has been a tremendous education for me, and profited me personally. It has even alerted me to changes coming in our economy in the near furture, and this will help me take care of my family, during what may prove to be hard times for many. God bless the internet!
And thanks for your response!


Leigh (10/17/99; 11:25:39MDT - Msg ID:16661)
elevator guy (continued)
As far as that terrible day back in August goes, please remember that the whole day's postings were ERASED FOREVER. I thought MK was going to shut the Forum down for a couple of weeks! That day is gone forever, and nobody remembers what anyone wrote!

Goldfly (10/17/99; 11:08:23MDT - Msg ID:16660)
>>>>>>--------317.20------------(>X

There is no full Moon, but last night Spot was out in back (still tied up) howling his brains out, and Spike was bouncing around the house. I thought there was going to be an earthquake or something this morning......

But all has passed rather peacefully, and Spot seems to be content on his tether with the Bear kids still teasing him (but keeping their distance!)

All in all, it looks to be a quiet week.


Leigh (10/17/99; 11:08:15MDT - Msg ID:16659)
elevator guy
elevator guy, don't feel like you're hollering into a well when you post here! Lots of times we don't get our questions answered or our most profound thoughts responded to simply because other people are thinking about something else. Very often I don't respond to other people's postings because what they say is so good that nothing else needs to be said. I enjoy reading what you write and appreciate your strong spiritual stand. As for FOA, he's a nice guy and doesn't hold grudges. Sometimes he doesn't answer questions if he doesn't feel ready to talk about the subject right then.

Please keep hollering -- we enjoy the sound of your voice!

flierdude (10/17/99; 10:59:21MDT - Msg ID:16658)
(No Subject)
>>>>>---------$318.70----------+>>>> I was hopeing that Gata would announce something today that would bring a positive price movement in gold next week. After all, thats the way they made it sound yesterday. I got up early for that overblown announcement. I could have used the extra sleep this morning that I have lost since the breakout. I agree with others on this "Hanibal" stuff, that it is beginning to sound awfully sophomoric.

With that said, I believe that the powers that be will continue to hold back gold until the November 12 expiration of the options.

To bad that I did not purchase April, June and August 2000 options. I placed my bets in June on these Decmber options to bring me a couple 100 K in profits. Looks like I'm going to be lucky getting out with $60 K in profits. Oh well still have them 50 December Dow Puts.



elevator guy (10/17/99; 10:53:02MDT - Msg ID:16657)
Rambling too!
pa qua, welcome to the forum. Are you into kung fu? I know pa qua is a Southern internal style, if I remember correctly. Your words add to the value of the forum.

The Scot, I also came to study gold because of the looming event of Y2K. Unlike you, I did not take time to figure out which way was up before opening my mouth. Mello88 was having a tizzy with FOA, and I jumped right in to defend mello88, not knowing who FOA was. Maybe thats why I feel like I'm hollering in a well when I post here? (Silence.......-hell hounds wailing in the distance)

Clint H (10/17/99; 10:49:06MDT - Msg ID:16656)
Oct.22
>>>>>...$417 Oct 22..>>>
It appears to me that we need to take a hard second step before we break into a full run. The full stretch run will give us many "limit up" days. The "limit up" days will get us to $30,000 and beyond.

RossL (10/17/99; 10:45:43MDT - Msg ID:16655)
Anglogold hedging
http://www.goldminingoutlook.com/
I did find a reference to the Anglogold decision to continue hedging. It is on Kaplan's goldminingoutlook page in the "Thought of the day" section.

Cmax (10/17/99; 10:33:38MDT - Msg ID:16654)
Charts??? Why?
Charts, yes.
I stopped looking at your charts long ago, when I finally arrived at the understanding that they offer next to NO tecnical assistance, because the market for some time now has had NOTHING to do with fundamentals. The market in recent times has proven itself to be ONLY driven by the media, by 30 year old market "consultants", and the goverment coerced program of MUTUAL FUNDS, which has converted the ignorant "joe sixpack´s" savings into into casino bets (stockmarket "investments). This RIVER of income, with the pros knowingly playing into incredibly irrational markets, (with their fingers always on the panic button) are the true determining factor to stock and gold prices, at this time, but NOT FUNDAMENTAL charts. A chart of public opinion averages is the trader´s only real chart (as for all the other "trend is your friend" people). No, no more Elliott waves, Gann lines, Grand Super Cycles, and other useless information....the "National Enquirer" has been a better indicator....at least until this present panorama collapses on top of all the ostriches, with their heads fully buried in the sand, (or other places). As I remember my U.S. history, the Securities Exchange Commission was formed shortly after the ´29 crash, for the primary reason of prohibiting the sales what were essentially MUTUAL FUNDS (!), which were dubbed as the major cause of the "irrational exhuberance" back then. In what rational society, would a person put their savings into a casino bet, and call it an "investment"? And then everyone, staight faced, banties about their "charts" that will predict future events.

Charts...I guess they make a good barometer of present irrationality, but they sure won´t predict the future.
My only charts are of the nautical variety now...they DO tell you when you will hit ground. Greenspan in two paragraphs can deride ANY financial chart. Our belated crash is knocking at both doors, finally. The question is: will anyone even notice before the immovable reality of gold short covering starts (or lack thereof)? THIS, is the ONLY concrete, tangible, juggernaut that will WITHOUT A DOUBT put an end to all this nonsense which is the world economy. All economic future, in all aspects, rest solely and commonly on this one fact. All myth will soon be dispelled from there, and rationality may rein once again.
Enough Sunday banter. A golden weekend to all.

The Scot (10/17/99; 10:32:07MDT - Msg ID:16653)
Sunday Ramblings
Having been mostly a lurker at this site, I have tried to be quiet and learn. I guess I have led a sheltered life compared to most on this forum, as far as world finance is concerned.

I have pretty much curled up in my own little world and let others try to cure the planet's problems. I was drawn into Gold by the Y2K thing. I believed that many would turn to "Real Money" at the end of the year because of nothing more than fear. I am beginning to learn how much more complex the world gold trade is than I ever imagined.

After 60 years in the good old USA, I have lived through many changes in our society. Being a teenager in the 50's with hot rods and rock & roll, I know what, IMHO, great times are all about.

What I have seen this country become is a country of retailers. We, by planning or by accident, have based our whole economy on selling to each other, products made elsewhere. This has, by and large, destroyed our manufacturing base and the assembly worker along with it. The few products assembled here are made with components made elsewhere. Weather this is good or bad, I'm not sure?

We have, at the cost of most of our producers, stopped using our own natural resources and are rapidly depleting the resources of other countries. Don't get me wrong; I am not a conservationist by today's standards. I believe God gave us these resources and we have the right to use them, "wisely".

Where am I going with this Sunday rambling? The point I was trying to get to is this. I believe those that harvest and sell their natural resources, whether it be oil, gold, silver, platinum, timber or any other of God's gifts have the right to set the price of that product.
If that means forming a cartel, binding together and setting a price that the rest of the world is "willing to pay" so be it.

Capitalism is "selling". Set the price you want for your product, if it doesn't sell, you know it's too high and then you have the right to lower the price.

Why the Gold miner's on this planet have allowed bankers to set the price of their commodity is beyond me. I am overjoyed with the initiative that GATA has taken this day and I want to give them my full support.

Forgive me for rambling , it's back to NASCAR for me.

Sincerely, The Scot


pa kua (10/17/99; 10:15:43MDT - Msg ID:16652)
@AEL (reply)
AEL (10/17/99; 9:27:51MDT - Msg ID:16647)
>===>=====>=====> $293 <=====<======<=======<"
.... your reasoning behind that low number?

In reply.
I had to make a guess! I take things hour by hour, and hope I see my mistakes in time. I was looking for a pattern, which some call waves to which they assign various numbers. The 285-295 range seemed a good area for a pullback from the recent rise. A reversal there would point to 345. If 286 doesn't hold maybe look for 270 or so. Of course, the price could take off from here! The ensuing weeks are fraught with uncertainty, not only because of the unclear hedging problems of the mines and BBs, but especially because the markets could crash bigtime(this may not be just a correction to 8500-9200 range).

Phos (10/17/99; 10:12:29MDT - Msg ID:16651)
el St.One (10/17/99; 03:46:55MDT - Msg ID:16632)
It is interesting that this item has been making the rounds again of late. I did some research on it and it is all over the internet on different websites but with different text and names in some cases. I checked into the names on one post (they disagree with some that you posted) and found much of the information to be factual such as the fates of the participants. At most of the sites that carry this item, these men met at the Edgewater Hotel in Chicago in 1923. There was an Edgewater Hotel there at that time and there is an Edgewater historical society which collects items from Edgewater (which is a suburb of Chicago) including items from that hotel. It is an interesting story and I would love to know why these men met there at that time. I don't know if anyone alive today knows but, if anyone does, it is probably one of their decendants. Just an item of interest.

USAGOLD (10/17/99; 9:54:50MDT - Msg ID:16650)
I can say with pleasure that the markets have become infinitely more interesting, and with no pleasure that they have perhaps become infinitely more dangerous.
"Indeed, is the fall in lending rates a sign that fresh
gold is being supplied to cover the shorts? I tell you
the lending arena of the gold market is frozen in
loses." --FOA 10/16/99

I agree with this, FOA. I think the lending rate is falling not because of a new supply of gold but because there are no takers. This gold carry trade is indeed locked up. I think many are losing their career positions over this debacle and many more are on the verge of losing their positions. The proponents of gold sales, leasing et al are in the process of being severely discredited both in public and in the professional investment community due to its burdensome excesses -- excesses which could have severe repercussions with financial firms up and down Wall Street. ( I saw one report where it was rumored that Goldman Sachs losses at the moment could be as high as $2 billion.) It appears to me that the gold carry trade battle is now over and all that remains is burying the corpses and removing the debris from the battlefield. There will be further attempts to drag these firms out of the fire, but when the day is done, I think the gold carry trade will be taken out of the financial firm training manual and rendered a much deserved place in financial history books.

--------

So FOA....This new gold market; it is a free market, yes?

In the Robert Mundell speech for which Steve H provided a link, the laureate said as early as 1997 there would be a new gold market and that central banks would look to settling with gold at free market prices. He suggested that this would occur in the 21st century. Was it last year, the gave Prize was awarded to Black and Scholes -- and then LTCM -- where Scholes was employed -- promptly went under water? Now Mundell wins the Nobel Prize while the gold carry trade implodes. The former honed tools for statist economics; the latter honed tools for free currency and gold markets and a much-needed competitor for the dollar. One became the tools of the status quo; the other the tools for a new economy.

In talking with colleagues in the gold industry, the feeling is that it will be a long time before the Wall Street trading firms and mining companies sanction again something like the gold carry trade -- at least to the degree that it was utilized in the late 1990s. Perhaps this was a usable idea that had gotten out of control? There is little doubt that the European action with respect to gold, sanctioned by Alan Greenspan who attended the Washington meeting, was aimed at the hedge funds and foreign exchange traders at the big banks. Leveraged trading was beginning to frustrate some nations' foreign policies and the mechanisms previously established to keep crisis situations from getting out of control. What good is it to try to save a country like Indonesia with fresh loans, stiff political and economic sanctions when hedge funds can easily destroy the Indonesian currency through derivative plays and leverage and undermine the intent of the international agencies. (Please don't construe from this that I back IMF actions during this Asian contagion lending crisis. I do not. I simply offer the foregoing as an explanation for the cb's actions.) So they acted to cut off the life-blood from the speculators -- the gold and yen carry trades.

The two pronged attack on the bullion banks, foreign exchange desks, hedge funds, et al co-incided with the latest jawboning by Alan Greenspan with respect to the stock market. He has to be getting a little fed up with being laughed at and ignored by the speculators whenever he warns of the excesses in the equities markets. Perhaps now they will find out the central banks still have teeth?

This all goes hand in hand and marks a turning point. The financial world has changed in the last few weeks and I think the man on the street is just now finding out that something has happened. At the moment I can say with pleasure that the markets have become infinitely more interesting, and with no pleasure that they have perhaps become infinitely more dangerous.



apdchief (10/17/99; 9:39:56MDT - Msg ID:16649)
Jon
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GOLD&d=t
Gold Fields Ltd on NASDAQ

YGM (10/17/99; 9:31:59MDT - Msg ID:16648)
Gata Message----




  GATA Message---Hardly Worth Sitting on Seat Edge All Wkend For. 
(YGM)Oct 17, 11:26
The content of the message is all well & good. BUT,
personally I'm getting tired of this Hannibal Cannibal and Shaka Zulu stuff. It's beginning to sound very childish. Like we have a board game going. We raised $100K lets use it to do something. Get Berger Montague to demand a copy of the tapes from the trading pits. Show the courts who's doing all the short selling and the media. There is a paper trail a mile long attached to trades in COMEX pits. Personally I'm dissapointed in this last round of Gata news, I thought it would be of much more substance.------YGM.

AEL (10/17/99; 9:27:51MDT - Msg ID:16647)
pa kua
"pa kua (10/16/99; 20:55:03MDT - Msg ID:16614)
>===>=====>=====> $293 <=====<======<=======<"

.... your reasoning behind that low number?

Bill (10/17/99; 9:23:08MDT - Msg ID:16646)
Gold & Blue in Denver
Green Bay "Gold" plays Denver "Blue" today in Denver. Hopefully GATA will have same results.

Jon (10/17/99; 9:22:55MDT - Msg ID:16645)
Gold Fields
I've seen Gold Fields mentioned several times, most recently by FOA in msg #16574, dated 10/16. Is that the Company listed on American Stock Exchage trading for a fraction of a dollar? Thanks.

mike55 (10/17/99; 9:15:14MDT - Msg ID:16644)
Golden Truth & ORO, Re: Rollover
G.T. -- Thanks for the info. I'll look at shops that specialize in older movies. Based on your comment that I won't like the ending unless I have more gold than I can carry or at least my weight in gold, well.....I guess I won't like the ending in that case. But, a little is better than none, and at one point in the late 1920's to early 1930's, King Ibn Saud was able to carry the entire treasury of his dynasty (gold)in one saddlebag on a horse. That doesn't directly apply to me since I don't have a natural resource to exchange for gold, but I do have unnatural resources known as Federal Reserve Notes that I do exchange for gold when the family budget permits. Hey, I gotta' start somewhere! My interest in watching the movie is to put yet another piece in the puzzle to gain greater understanding of the gold/oil/Wall Street/CB workings of the world.

ORO -- I've read a few books on the subject of the gold for oil deals. There's no question in my mind that this has been fact for a long time. We will see what the future brings regarding US $/euro/gold for oil linkage. The corroboration I've found in reading your postings and those of many of the other astute people here, combined with reading "Oil, God, and Gold", "The Prize", and "In the Footsteps of Giants", leaves no doubt to the validity of the deals. As you noted, the deals have been in effect since 1937 originally on various concession agreements, and even earlier on others. In the later 1920's, when the main interest on the part of the Saudis was to grant exploration privileges for the search of water, the payment was made in part or full with gold. The natural extension of the exploration, of course, was the discovery of oil reserves, and in some cases gold and other precious metals and minerals. Thanks for all your sharing of knowledge and understanding at this site.

ORO/All -- So now as we approach the year 2000, where the confluence of the debt bubble, equities (over)valuation, euro, gold shorts, various carry trades, date rollover jitters, etc. have to face each other more directly than in the past, what do you see regarding oil in the near-term and long-term? I believe the US imports roughly 50%(?) of its oil, and let's say that between temporary delivery issues related to the date rollover, and the possible (probable) payment for oil in euros instead of dollars, what does this bode for the US domestic oil fields? Cost of US production may not be a controlling factor depending on the way things play-out over the long run. I know that many US fields have fallen into disrepair over the last 20 years due to the extortion we've forced on the OPEC countries in carrying US debt in exchange for low prices of their resources. We are notorious for our methods of getting the other guy's resources one way or the other before dipping into our own. And if we don't have a certain type of resource of our own (food, minerals, raw/finsihed goods, strategic geographic location, etc.), we just keep them in financial slavery or take over their country or government. Oops, sorry for rambling....I get so little computer time with three sons using the machine for homework that the pent-up thoughts come to the surface when I can get on. Back to the question at hand: Knowing that some of the US oil fields are water/mud filled and would take some time to reactivate, but that some could be brought back into production to supplement those currently producing, what are the thoughts on the long-term future of US oil production? Thanks to all.

Carl (10/17/99; 9:06:24MDT - Msg ID:16643)
My entry
Gold price to be >>>>$320.00.

MidEastGold (10/17/99; 8:17:24MDT - Msg ID:16642)
Link on Current Known Executive Orders
http://forums.cosmoaccess.net/forum/survival/prep/exorders.htm
!!!!!

Number Six (10/17/99; 8:11:42MDT - Msg ID:16641)
GATA Action
I live in Denver so will take a drive down there and pester them in the bar!!!

Bonedaddy (10/17/99; 7:23:06MDT - Msg ID:16640)
On the topic of martial law
http://www.FreeRepublic.com/forum/a37e440d7398a.htm
Research by lawyers for Gun Owners of America. What they have uncovered is quite chilling for the law abiding. The impreached president already has dictatorial powers. Bonedaddy's query: will US troops kill us for peacefull
non-nompliance? If they do will the Chinese government protest?

RossL (10/17/99; 7:09:39MDT - Msg ID:16639)
Barrick
http://www.egroups.com/group/gata/258.html?
Barrick has written 4 million ounces of calls. Wow! We will soon add them to the list of Ashanti and Cambior.


Golden Calf (10/17/99; 7:03:23MDT - Msg ID:16638)
What to expect...?
Previews, trailers, expectations.....

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
It seems that the only market open today is
Israel, and it dropped a whopping 3.24%.

Tomorrow may just be a real swinger/zinger
in international markets.....NO?

Chris Powell (10/17/99; 6:55:13MDT - Msg ID:16637)
Tora! Tora! Tora! Help us bomb the Denver gold show
http://www.egroups.com/group/gata/258.html?
GATA's war plan for is in the link above.
The details you'll need are in the link
below.

http://www.egroups.com/group/gata/259.html?

Silver Tongue (10/17/99; 6:26:37MDT - Msg ID:16636)
Wall Street
I thought it was pretty interesting to see the CNN poll which is at their website. They asked if the voters though Friday's deep dip was the end of the decline, near the end of the decline in stock prices or if the dip had barely scratched the surface of the drop which is coming. A large majority who voted feel that the stock market will drop a whole lot further. Since the people voting on CNN poles have access to a computer and hence are probably in most cases well to do and the people who have the money to invest this perception could bode badly for the market this coming week. I subscribe the Bull Market which comes out every day or so. The author blame Greenspan for the drop in the market. Sort of like blaming the weatherman in Florida for the hurricane. The market is in for a hammering if the only thing that is holding it up is Greenspan's word that everything is all right. My advice would be to stock up on physical gold because you will have it even if the market collapses. Likewise you will have a bunch of stock certificates to start your fire if you remain in paper.

Jon (10/17/99; 5:40:22MDT - Msg ID:16635)
Closing POG 10/22
up up up 331.25

The Invisible Hand (10/17/99; 5:14:28MDT - Msg ID:16634)
GATA quotes FOA
http://www.egroups.com/group/gata/257.html?
FOA's # 16574 is GATA's 257th message

The Invisible Hand (10/17/99; 4:59:43MDT - Msg ID:16633)
October 22 *>>>>------ $ 523.25 --------+>
Come on, a little imagination, GATA is speaking this afternoon (London, England time)

el St.One (10/17/99; 03:46:55MDT - Msg ID:16632)
REPOST
I posted this a year ago ( Aug 1998) Seems like it's time to pin it up again.

HERE TODAY GONE TOMORROW
In these times of the soaring Dow and billion dollar deals, here is a
little quiz for any business or financial mogul who thinks he's on top
of the world.
Back in the 1920's during the last great bull market , who
was..................
1. President of the largest steel company in the U.S.?
2. President of the largest gas company?
#. President of the New York Stock Exchange?
4. The greatest commodity speculator of his time?
5. President of the BIS (Bank of International Settlement), and one of
the great
financiers of that time?
6. The "Great Bear of Wall Street?"
The Answers......
1. Charles Schwab---who died a pauper, after spending the last years of
his life begging for meals.
2. Edward Hopson who was certified insane, and spent his last years as
a babbling idiot in an institution.
3. Richard Whitney, who was president of the NYSE, was released from
prison to die at home.
4. Arthur Cooger died abroad completely penniless, living in flop
houses when he could afford the nightly charge.
5. The president of the Bank of International Settlement Nelson Keeley,
shot himself.
6. The Great Bear of Wall Street, Cosabee Rivermore----a bit ahead of
his time---died from suicide.
So all of you moguls and deal makers.....just remember. You're all to
human and pride goes before a fall. ALWAYS HAS ALWAYS WILL

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Monday could be a repeat of OCT 87

Dow down 20% in one day ????????????????????

I really really hope not

el

TEX (10/17/99; 00:21:03MDT - Msg ID:16631)
One Last Time
I'm gettin pretty good at this.....does anybody think I'll make it to the "Hall of Fame" someday? Goodnight......

TEX (10/17/99; 00:16:59MDT - Msg ID:16630)
Jeez......repostin the posts
What a rookie......I'm reposting my posts. It late. Got to hit the bunkhouse. Sorry all.....

TEX (10/17/99; 00:09:53MDT - Msg ID:16629)
Tossin My Hat Into The Ring
>>>>>>>>>>>.........356.00.........>>>>>>>>>>!

OK, I'm tossin my hat into the ring. As far as how I came up with that figure..........Its a flat out blind guess! I have no idea as to what I am doing. Odds are....and with that kind of attitude.....I'll win!
Adios Amigos and see you in the winner's circle!

TEX (10/17/99; 00:08:37MDT - Msg ID:16628)
Sorry About The Arrow
Sorry about the arrow (>>>>>>>>>.....356.00........>>>>>>>!)
You know, us cowboys aren't the experts when it comes to shootin arrows (apologies to all of you P.C. types). Gidday Up you GOLD doggies!!!



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