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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. Looking to buy gold coins and bullion? The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets. To join the debate request a discussion password here.

The opinions posted by all guests at this forum are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of this forum shall therefore not be construed as equivalent to endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 3/16/2006
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Goldilox (3/16/06; 23:15:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 142522)
Jobless claims edge higher
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B81AB2FB1%2D949F%2D4652%2D81B6%2DDAB937F83A4D%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=
snip:

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- New applications for state unemployment benefits rose by 5,000 to 309,000 in the week ending March 11, the highest level since December, the Labor Department said Thursday.
Initial claims have risen three weeks in a row and five of the past six weeks since hitting a six-year low of 273,000 in late January.

The four-week average of new claims, which strips out one-time events such as holidays and weather, rose by 5,750 to 296,500, the highest since the second week of January. Read the full report.

Economists have been hopeful that jobless claims had reached a new plateau just under 300,000 after averaging around 320,000 for most of 2005.
Economists polled by MarketWatch expected claims to fall to about 300,000.

With initial claims now drifting higher, it's possible the low levels in January and February were due more to favorable weather than to a fundamental improvement in the labor market.

Meanwhile, the number of people continuing to collect unemployment benefits fell by 49,000 to 2.45 million, the lowest since Feb. 10, 2001.

The four-week average of continuing claims fell by about 15,000 to 2.48 million, also the lowest since February 2001.

The insured unemployment rate - the percentage of all covered workers who are receiving benefits - remained at 1.9%.

Initial claims are down about 8% since this time last year. Continuing claims are down about 7%.

Initial claims represent job destruction, while the level of continuing claims indicates how hard or easy it is for displaced workers to find new jobs.

mikal (3/16/06; 21:26:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 142521)
@Beamer
Re: "Would you take this beautiful pile of gold coins or an equivalent weight in gold?" After being fully invested in old semi-numismatic coins such as shown, bullion coins such as Springboks(K-Rands!), a bit of silver coin and bullion, and early European coppers, I would choose beautiful Fortuna gold BARS such as TC linked earlier!
Cheers!

mikal (3/16/06; 21:14:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 142520)
@Goldilox
http://www.lewrockwell.com/roberts/roberts155.html
Re: "Going for the gold"
At JS site there is a story in which 7 or so "rogue nations"
were today, again named as the greatest threat to America.
You begin to wonder whether war will recolonize resource rich nations at a time of scarcity and climbing prices for oil, metals, etc. "Going for the gold" indeed?
Iranophobia - Paul Craig Roberts - March 16, 2006
Short list of possible outcomes from current war drum beating emanating from the District of Criminality.

Goldilox (3/16/06; 21:10:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 142519)
Contest idea
@ Beamer,

Interesting idea, but I can't imagine why anyone would prefer straight bullion to coins that probably carry a premium. Taking the coins is a "no loss" proposition, since they are definitely worth at least "their weight in gold".

TownCrier (3/16/06; 20:10:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 142518)
Miscellaneous...
Flatliner (msg#: 142512) -- said, "Today, in order to meet demand on the US dollar as the world reserve currency, the US must print it as fast as they can. Tomorrow, (figuratively speaking, of course), in order to meet demand on gold as the world reserve currency, the price will go up."


You have displayed a true gift of gracefully eloquent and illustrative expression. Beautifully direct and effective. And I thank you.


Beamer (msg#: 142511), -- That's a dandy idea.

R.

Goldilox (3/16/06; 19:23:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 142517)
OT - Going for the gold - WBC
Clemens and TeamUSA are locked in a 1-1 elimination game against Mexico. Bob Davidson, the ump who messed up the call that cost Japan a victory over USA has already overturned a Mexico HR, but they pushed the run across in spite of his second foible.

Mexico has runners at the corners with one out, and they have just chased the RocketMan. It's up to the Angel's Scott Shields to hold.


Oops, a slow bouncer to Jeter: 2-1 Mexico after 5 complete.


PRITCHO (3/16/06; 19:23:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 142516)
From Richard Russell - - - - Latest Comments March 16th, 2006
http://ww1.dowtheoryletters.com/DTLOL.nsf
I'ts a sad state of affairs BUT -at least those looking outside of the mainstream media are getting a "Heads Up"

Snip:
What about the declining purchasing power of the dollar? From the government's standpoint, you lie about it, and you remove evidence of it -- for instance, you kill M-3 and stay with that absurd "core inflation" numbers. From the consumer's standpoint -- make as much money as you can in order to offset the decline in the dollar's purchasing power. Which is why people are still in this overpriced stock market -- it's the desperate need to produce profits.

So where are we now? Stocks are expensive, dollars are suspect but necessary for every day living, and gold pays no interest.

My answer -- hold the safest items that pay interest along with as much gold as you can afford. Stay out of debt, live within your means, and exercise patience. Interesting opportunities will emerge in due time. But right now, I don't see them.

Today -- Forget all those little well-publicized interest rates boosts by the Fed. Real rates are almost surely still negative. Fed funds are at 4.5%, but monetary inflation is probably running at 6-8%. Subscribers know what I think -- it's LIQUIDITY, not rates, that this market is feeding off of.

Today was a rarity. When was the last time you saw stocks, bonds, commodities, oil, gold, copper ALL UP on the same day. And today, the bonds and notes were up BIG TIME. The only item down hard today was the US dollar.

My bet is that Bernanke is pressing the pedal to the metal. M-3 was up $54 billion on the latest reading. We'll see what M-3 is on Friday. March 23 will be the last day in which the Fed will release the M-3 figures.

PRITCHO (3/16/06; 19:17:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 142515)
How Much Is A Billion ? - - - From Yesterdays Richard Russells Comments - -
Richard,
Some interesting comments about the word "billion".
From Hylee F. Kemp

Subject: A billion here, a billion there...

Here's something thought provoking -

The next time you hear a politician use the word "billion" in a casual manner,think about whether you want the
"politicians" spending your tax money.

A billion is a difficult number to comprehend, but one advertising agency did a good job of putting that figure into some perspective in one of its releases.

a.. A billion seconds ago it was 1959.

b.. A billion minutes ago Jesus was alive.

c.. A billion hours ago our ancestors were living in the Stone Age.

d.. A billion days ago no-one walked on the earth on two feet.

e.. A billion dollars ago was only 8 hours and 20 minutes, at the rate our government is spending it.

R Powell (3/16/06; 19:08:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 142514)
Some opinions + news from GFMS
http://www.gfms.co.uk/Newsletter/GFMS%20NEWS%20Issue%2019.pdf
Physicalman.....I'm glad you have recuperated. We are all mortal but sometimes it takes a real scare to remind us that our time is severely limited. I'm happy to hear you're still with us!

Of course, yes, you are entitled to spend your own money however you see fit. At least, I believe this is still okay. I don't believe the government has changed this yet. Now that I think of it, wasn't it McTeer, head of one of the Fed. Reserve Banks (Texas?) who advocated that we all buy new vehicles? Enjoy the ride.
rich

Mthirsty1 (3/16/06; 19:04:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 142513)
Winners
Congratulations to the winners of the contest.I have not been around for the past week due to Nascar racing in Vegas,(the next best thing to gold)and did not have any knowledge of what was going on in the real world.It's nice to do that sometimes.We just got home today and it was nice to see it has been a good week for gold.Again,congrat's to the winners.

Flatliner (3/16/06; 18:57:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 142512)
World reserve
Today, in order to meet demand on the US dollar as the world reserve currency, the US must print it as fast as they can.

Tomorrow, (figuratively speaking, of course), in order to meet demand on gold as the world reserve currency, the price will go up.


Beamer (03/16/06; 18:33:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 142511)
Towncrier - How 'well rounded'
An interesting contest would be the price of all those beautiful coins displayed in your link. Especially those which are hidden underneath the pile. A real challenge indeed. The closest guess wins. A typical question would be, 'Would you take this beautiful pile of gold coins or the equivalent weight in gold and qualify the answer with a why?'.

Flatliner (3/16/06; 18:22:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 142510)
@No reserve Euro
I wonder how long it's going to take the world to figure out that there is only one way to escape the US Dollar?

For some reason, it feels like it's gotten ominously quiet, as if the music just stopped and everyone is looking for the chairs and not finding them. It's as if everyone has been expecting a shipload of Euro chairs that would provide enough value for all tangible things, but it has not arrived. And, if they look at the shipping records, they will find that no trip was ever booked and those in Euro land never had any plans on shipping any chairs out into the world.

The most interesting part about this is that we are witnessing the world's adoption of gold as the new world reserve currency. This adoption is in play. Every CB in the world knows what is coming but their hands are politically tied and their lips are sealed. They can not outright stand up against Uncle Sam. And they know that they do not need too. Time is on their side. It's just a matter of waiting. At some point, any of a million different catalysts could fire to start the stampede.

Meanwhile, those whose eyes are open will see that there are a million different reasons to find a way to put their savings in gold. Investors that do the math between a fixed amount of gold and the amount of value that must be matched in order for gold to function as a world reserve currency will find that the small amount of gold will absorb a virtually unbelievable number of dollars!


TownCrier (3/16/06; 17:33:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 142509)
How "well-rounded" is YOUR portfolio??
http://www.usagold.com/webads/gold-coins.jpg

Click URL for graphic inspiration and guidance.

If you think it looks good "on paper", just wait until you've felt the weight of tangible wealth in you own hand -- you'll be reluctant to settle your savings into anything less.

R.

TownCrier (3/16/06; 17:15:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 142508)
Flatliner,
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/1420063/default.html
I concur where you "go a step further" to say what many others (Engdahl included) are unable to see and/or say for themselves.

You can see my simple thoughts are in agreement with yours in my comments posted Tuesday early morning:

TownCrier (3/14/06; 01:20:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 142411)

Click link and scroll to near bottom.

R.

Flatliner (3/16/06; 16:40:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 142507)
@To challenge the dollar
I'm hoping someone can shed a little light on the comment made by Mr. Engdahl. I'm not familiar with this guys writings, thus I'm not sure how to interpret the comment. It appears that he's saying, fairly clearly, that the willy-nilly printing of euros will not occur. There is no country that will stand up against the dollar and, basically, declare financial war against the US. Also, the way the Euro system is setup doesn't lend itself to this type of direct challenge.

Is that reasonable? I would tend also to agree and I would go a step further to say that I don't believe that the Euro wants to be the world reserve currency. It seems to me that they have made that very clear by making (tada!) gold the money they have chosen as the reserve currency. One just has to read the daily postings to see that CBs all around the world are, in their own little way, working towards changing their reserve currency.

Actually, it seems that countries are giving their citizens a choice as to what currency they want. This is a very interesting change of context for the world. I hope the US can safely handle the transition.


TownCrier (3/16/06; 16:19:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 142506)
Gold Doesn't Fear a Fed Rate-Hike Pause
http://www.thestreet.com/pf/markets/marketfeatures/10274148.html
By Nick Godt, Markets Reporter
3/16/2006 -- Gold closed higher on Thursday despite a CPI report and other data that convinced many inflation is not a problem and the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates sooner than later.

But gold, which serves as a hedge against inflation, still found cause to rally. ... The result: Gold for April delivery gained $1 to $555.40 per ounce, marking its fourth straight session of upside for a total gain of $14.10.

The metal's advance didn't do much for gold mining stocks, which have remained depressed since gold took a corrective turn in February.

Wither M3?

There's more to the story behind gold's resilience than apparently tame inflation. Gold bugs love a good conspiracy theory and they actually have a fairly convincing one.

The CPI, many gold bugs believe, is not to be trusted. A real gauge of inflation, they argue, is M3, which is the largest measure of the money supply. And guess what? That weekly measure, which used to rock the bond and stock markets in the 1970s, is about to be scrapped on March 23.

The explanation on the Fed's Web site reads: "M3 does not appear to convey any additional information about economic activity that is not already embodied in M2 and has not played a role in the monetary policy process for many years. Consequently, the Board judged that the costs of collecting the underlying data and publishing M3 outweigh the benefits."

If you ask gold bugs, however, the Fed is trying to hide something. M3 includes the smaller measures of the money supply such as M1 and M2 plus large time deposits, institutional money market accounts, and Eurodollar deposits of U.S. banks held at foreign branches and at all U.S. offices. While the first two measures are mostly held by the public, M3 is about putting "money into the system," writes David Chapman, director of the Millennium Bullion Fund.

The first leg of today's inflationary environment, he says, started when former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan cut rates in the early 1990s to stave off a recessionary environment, Chapman says. The latest leg came after the Fed cut rates to historical lows after the bursting of the tech bubble and the 9/11 attacks. Since 1995, M1 has risen 18.8%, M2 is up 89.5%, and M3 has increased a stunning 130%, Chapman notes.

"The Fed has been running a well managed hyperinflationary environment," says John Strafford, a gold analyst and editor of The Strafford Newsletter. "They must inflate or die."

But why remove M3 now?

Iran was expected to launch an exchange next week to start trading it oil in euros instead of dollars. Given current geopolitical tensions, a possible huge rush out of dollars would occur, and that would have hit M3 the most. A sharp drop in M3 has typically been seen as presaging recession, and markets would have panicked, says Chapman.

Meanwhile, it seems that Iran's launch of the bourse has been delayed until April, according to Platt's Commodity News.

^---(from url)---^

Are you prudently "making hay while the sun shines"? Proper diversification with gold should be a fair-weather activity so that you'll have the protection of purchasing power already in-hand and assured at such times as the climate turns more troubling than at present.

Call the friendly brokers at USAGOLD-Centennial for professional assistance and best prices on all the gold you'll need to put your portfolio upon a firm foundation of tangible, reliable wealth.

R.

The Invisible Hand (3/16/06; 16:08:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 142505)
To challenge the dollar, the ECB must inflate
http://www.iranian.ws/iran_news/publish/article_14125.shtml
SNIP from
ge (3/16/06; 11:57:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 142496)' link

"For the euro to begin to challenge the reserve role of the U.S. dollar, a virtual revolution in policy would have to take place in Euroland," Mr. Engdahl wrote. "First the European Central Bank . . . would have to surrender power to elected legislators. It would then have to turn on the printing presses and print euros like there was no tomorrow."
A full challenge to the U.S. dollar as the world central bank reserve currency, Mr. Engdahl added later, would entail a "de facto declaration of war on the 'full-spectrum dominance' of the United States today," and that is something no country or group of countries is yet willing to launch.

USAGOLD Daily Market Report (3/16/06; 16:04:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 142504)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

THURSDAY Market Excerpts

Gold enjoys fourth-straight session gain

March 16 (from DowJones) -- Comex gold prices see-sawed between positive and negative territories on Thursday at the New York Mercantile Exchange as the yellow metal reacted to U.S. economic news, profit-taking and a U.S. air strike in Iraq.

Most-active April gold settled $1.00 higher at $555.40.

Early in the session the contract pushed to a $557.60-an-ounce high in reaction to a softer-than-expected U.S. core consumer price index that took the euro to a fresh six-week high versus the dollar.

But some profit-taking moved in and the yellow metal fell into negative territory, hitting a session low of $548.10. Later news of a large U.S. air strike in Iraq prompted the metal to move higher and finish the day nearly unchanged.

"Renewed buying interest and the news about the U.S. military launching its biggest air offensive in Iraq since the 2003 invasion of the country helped the metal to recover," said analysts at MKS Finance.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---

spikedog (3/16/06; 15:44:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 142503)
Re: Goldilox and Refi
That was outstanding; must be part of the new economy.

BTW, congrats to the contest winners. Nice work! It looks like the rest of us have been winning as well this week. To the Moon!

canamami (3/16/06; 13:22:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 142502)
Goldilox - Thx for reply
It's good to hear the situation in other parts of the continent.



Goldilox (3/16/06; 13:08:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 142501)
Gold refuses to quit winning streak
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BC42EA68E%2D46E1%2D49B8%2D9BB5%2DF29F6AA58E8B%7D&tool=1&siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts
snip:

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed higher Thursday to extend its winning streak tally to four sessions as analysts remained upbeat about the precious metal's ability to reach the $600-an-ounce level.

"The U.S. dollar counter-trend rally is over and a resumption of the secular bear market is under way," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter.

"This and geopolitical news out of the Middle East are the fuel for a run to $600."

On Thursday, the dollar moved broadly lower after a Labor Department report showed that U.S. core consumer-price inflation remains benign, dampening expectations over how high U.S. interest rates might go.

Against this backdrop, gold for April delivery closed up $1 at $555.40 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That's its highest-ending level since March 6, and prices have now tallied a four-session gain of $14.10. Prices had earlier tapped a session low of $548.

"Profits are fine, but who really wants to close the books on the short side of the market before any weekend?" asked Jon Nadler, an investment products analyst at bullion dealers Kitco.com.

"The scale of U.S. deficits, growing impact of oil-driven inflation and rising investor interest within gold and the precious complex seem set to take us to $600 and beyond within the foreseeable future," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com.

Meanwhile, May silver closed at $10.342 an ounce, down 0.8 cents after reaching a high on Wednesday of $10.395 an ounce, the highest futures price level since at least 1984.
"The fast-paced moves seen recently in the silver market look set to continue for the foreseeable future with the launch of new ETF [exchange-traded fund] products likely to further the metals upside potential," Moore wrote in a note to clients.

The silver market will likely see a rally to $12.50 "in the not-too-distant future," he said.

In other metals action, June palladium lost $2.95 to close at $315.35 an ounce following a rally of more than $12 in the previous session, while April platinum added $1.60 to finish at $1,030.60 an ounce. May copper closed 1.5 cents higher at $2.2655 a pound.

On the supply side, inventories of copper fell 276 short tons to 30,957 short tons as of late Wednesday, according to Nymex.
Gold inventories fell 164 troy ounces to 7.53 million troy ounces and silver supplies stood at 126.1 million troy ounces, unchanged from the previous session.

Goldilox (3/16/06; 12:52:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 142500)
RE vs. consumption
@ canamami,

Here on the Southern US border, RE prices are averaging about $0.5M per unit, and the border is pretty porous for laborer classes, so they are probably not potential buyers.

I will give you that influxes also affect RE from the consumption side, bouying rental numbers.

Good points you mention.

Flatliner (3/16/06; 12:47:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 142499)
Hey, what's wrong with holding a dollar?
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s
It's not like anything changed from yesterday.

Flatliner (3/16/06; 12:07:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 142498)
misc
Thanks for the great laugh Goldilox! Everyone here knows that mortgage debt is just gold investment capital thus it's really not… debt.

It's interesting to see CB news regarding gold reserves this morning (www.thebulliondesk.com). I haven't heard it spelt out specifically here in a while, but this type of news seems to support the gold trail and the movements towards Freegold.

Thanks ge for the link yesterday (http://en.rian.ru/russia/20060315/44334563.html). It read something like: "Russian oil exchange to launch in late 2006 – minister…MOSCOW, March 15 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's economic development and trade minister said Wednesday that an oil futures exchange would be opened in Russia in the second half of 2006."

"German Gref told a government session that the Economic Development and Trade Ministry and the country's antimonopoly bodies were to complete work on necessary documentation in the first half of 2006."

Being a Bambi to this great concept of saving and making lots of money by holding physical gold (and those other non-reserve metals), I have to ask those way down the trail ahead of me if this type of news has been common over the last 5-7 years. Specifically, do countries announce that they will be opening futures exchanges all the time? I just wonder.

Declines in world markets don't seem to hit the headlines. That's really too bad for those blindly trust others with their investments. Having been cut by the two-edged sword of margin, the ramifications of market declines will be felt everywhere in one way or another. My guess would be that profits will be moved from one market to cover losses in another. That might not help the robust US bank account known as "The Market."

Thanks Gandalf the White for the exciting guessing game. Can't help but smile for everyone there.

Buy gold. Fear not. Gold ownership, and the values for which it stands, is the path to freedom.


canamami (3/16/06; 12:05:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 142497)
Reply to Goldilox
In both Canadian cities in which I have lived, many of the immigrants appeared to buy homes within a reasonable amount of time (many immigrants are rich, especially from certain source countries). Real estate values have always moved up when these cities have had a high influx of immigration.

Also, perhaps I should have said real estate bubble instead of housing bubble. People do have to be housed. The more people, the more need for housing. Even illegals and refugees on welfare are housed, compliments of social assistance, etc., which in turn supports the banks and developers who build, administer and finance the apartments. The expanding pool of real estate helps to soak up excess liquidity. If immigration were cut back, this would trigger the real estate bust, and all that would flow from that.

ge (3/16/06; 11:57:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 142496)
Iranian oil bourse hits wall
http://www.iranian.ws/iran_news/publish/article_14125.shtml
Thanks Goldilox. According to the attached link, Iranian oil bourse has been postponed. I get the impression that lots of talking is being done in smoke filled backrooms. I wonder whether we shall be informed after the handshaking ceremony is finished.

Goldilox (3/16/06; 11:41:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 142495)
World Gold Price
@ ge,

Great page. It shows how gold has progressed on world markets, leaving US$, Euro, and Yen behind, as their devaluation overshadows that of other currencies.

It seems "bugger thy neighbors currency" is more rampant in the majors.



Goldilox (3/16/06; 11:35:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 142494)
When $8 Trillion Isn't Enough
http://www.jsmineset.com/
THE GOVERNMENT, Treasury Secretary John W. Snow informed Congress last week, has now taken "all prudent and legal actions" to avoid bumping up against the debt ceiling. The limit, Mr. Snow told lawmakers, will need to be raised from its current level: $8,184,000,000,000. If you aren't used to deciphering that parade of zeros, let us translate for you: $8.184 trillion isn't enough. The administration is asking for an additional $781 billion.

The inevitable increase will be the fourth such hike in five years, for a total rise in the national credit limit of more than $3 trillion. During his time in office, President Bush has presided over a 46 percent increase in the federal debt, from about $5.6 trillion. By contrast, during President Bill Clinton's two terms, the debt grew from less than $4 trillion to $5.6 trillion, a 28 percent increase -- and during the last few years of his presidency, Mr. Clinton actually began to pay down the country's "real" debt, that is, debt held by the public, as opposed to the IOUs in Social Security and other government accounts.

-Goldilox

The debt-berg has grown almost 50% since the NeoCons came to court. If that's not hyperbolic, I challenge anyone to explain why.

The DOW is hovering at 11,200, giving the appearance of spport at 2000 highs. HAHAHAHA! Even using their hedonically adjusted inflation numbers, it would ned to be 13,700 according to George Ure. To match currency and debt inflation, it would need to be about 16-17K, JUST TO TREAD WATER!

Goldilox (3/16/06; 11:13:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 142493)
Latest Refi commercial
"I just refinanced my home and consolidated my credit card balances. It just feels nice to know I am 'out of debt'."

Huh?

ge (3/16/06; 11:07:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 142492)
Monthly gold prices since 1971 in various currencies
http://www.gold.org/value/stats/statistics/monthlysince1971.html
.

Smeagol (3/16/06; 10:29:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 142491)
Statlisst
That is a nifty thing, Usul precious!

S.

Goldilox (3/16/06; 10:18:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 142490)
Immigration
@ canamami,

What percentage of early immigrants would you think are "homeowers"?

I think, more likely, the main effects are keeping wages low and juicing consumption.

canamami (3/16/06; 09:03:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 142489)
Random thoughts/questions re housing bubble
Do Canada and the US permit large scale immigration (legal and illegal) to prevent the housing bubble from collapsing?

When (or if) the housing bubble bursts, individuals' excess liquidity and savings must go somewhere. If debt is monetized - government gets out of it by printing money - some of that money must go to gold. If the government bites the bullet and allows bankruptcies and deflation, money must go to gold as an affordable hard asset which is not dependent on a solvent counterparty.

OvS (3/16/06; 05:53:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 142488)
Grab that ag & statfest.
Taking a look at early
morning kittycat graphs,
someone has a very firm
order to grab all offered
at 10.18 spot, no matter
how much is offered. The
shorts must be sweating
blood.
Usul. Your statfest is
really magical. When it
works, statistics is really
wonderful and very often it
does work. As you know, the
hedging crowd uses these
models to death; but, then,
a free-floating spec of
golddust settles upon the
computer disc, usually at a
strategic moment, and the
magic turns into quackmire.


Goldilox (3/16/06; 05:53:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 142487)
U.S. corn trade war inches closer
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20060316.RCORN16/TPStory/Business/
snip:

Subsidies south of the border could force Ottawa to impose final tariffs

STEVEN CHASE
OTTAWA -- Ottawa moved closer yesterday to a trade war with Washington over U.S. farm subsidies that could see long-term tariffs on grain corn imports -- a measure opponents warn could drive up the cost of everything from tortilla chips to livestock feed.

Critics caution it could prompt a backlash from the U.S. government and lead to retaliatory tariffs on Canadian products.

Yesterday the Canadian Border Services Agency rendered a final decision on imports of U.S. corn, saying its probe found unprocessed grain corn is being subsidized and dumped in Canada at cut-rate prices.

Hearings begin Monday in Ottawa on whether Canadian corn growers are being injured by U.S. imports. They will determine, by mid-April, whether Ottawa moves ahead with the trade conflict.

Canadian hog and cattle farmers could be among those hit hardest if Ottawa doesn't change course.


-Goldilox

So much for the opening of trade barriers . . .

Goldilox (3/16/06; 05:44:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 142486)
More from "The Coming Dark Age" - "History's Logic", Chapter 11
http://www.darkage.fsnet.co.uk/
snip:

The phenomenon of independent, simultaneous invention shows that there is no shortage of heroic individuals. For example, three people separately invented the telescope in the same year, and three different surgeons separately pioneered heart transplant operations within six weeks of each other. There are countless examples of this phenomenon. It shows that ideas are in the air when they are discovered, and the progress of history does not depend fundamentally on the efforts of any one person. Indeed, in other cases, scientists seem to have discovered things ahead of time, as Mendel did with genes, and their work has then been neglected until it could be properly understood.

The truth is that people simply find it easier to think in terms of heroic individuals and discrete incidents than in terms of abstract historical processes. It is easier to remember that Columbus discovered America than to grasp the complex trends whereby Europeans were pressing out into the wider world. The fact that Columbus visited the mainland only briefly, and died still thinking that he had reached India, is ignored, as is the fact that British merchant sailors independently discovered North America within a few years of Columbus's first voyage or possibly even beforehand. To say that Columbus discovered America is a shorthand for a process with a much deeper keel. When this greater process is acknowledged, it may be recognised that the chance event was the insignificant fact that it happened to be Columbus. The significant event – the European eruption towards America – had nothing to do with chance.

History is a turbulent phenomenon, thoroughly characterised by random events, but in which there nevertheless appear to be deeper constancies. In turbulent flow, such as smoke rising from a cigarette, chance events can grow to produce great waves and eddies in a quite unpredictable fashion. Yet all streams of smoke look essentially the same. This is like history. Chance events are very significant, but only so far as surface appearances are concerned. Beneath the surface, there are deep, invariant properties. Those invariants can be discovered operating in the last five thousand years of human experience. They can reliably be applied to the understanding of future events. It may not be possible to predict the financial rankings of different countries a thousand years from now, or even what countries will be in existence. Yet it is possible to predict that major changes of fortune will continue to occur. The great contemporary configurations of wealth and power will play themselves out, like whorls of smoke, to be replaced by others that are exactly the same though different in every detail.


-Goldilox

Another way to remind us of history's rhyme. He seems to be saying that predicting the outcome is a lot more difficult than predicting the turmoil. There a many individuals working to meet the needs og peak oil, but the ransition will require communal acceptance of alternatives. The same is true for "wealth", and the scramble for power retention is sure to accompany any transition from "oil addiction".


Usul (3/16/06; 05:29:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 142485)
Weak news bleeding greenback
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20060316.RBELL16/TPStory/Business
Gold, which almost always grows more appealing to investors as the greenback grows queasier, has responded to all this by resuming its climb...

Goldilox (3/16/06; 05:23:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 142484)
Our Worst Nightmare – The Bubble Has Burst!
Dudley Baker from the other castle
snip:

In an earlier article entitled ' Our Worst Nightmare: The Puncture of the Current U.S. Housing Bubble' we noted that "The key to holding up the entire speculative US financial system with its current excessive levels of debt – federal (current account and trade), state, municipal, corporate and household – is maintaining the U.S. housing bubble. Anything less would result in America' s worst nightmare and, in short order, the entire world. One too many additional increases in the Fed rate may well turn out to be the U.S. economy' s Achilles' heel. With at least two more increases expected in the first half of 2006 this could well be the year." Well, it would seem from all reports of late that the Fed has, indeed, gone beyond the tipping point with its latest interest rate increase and, as such, has set up America for a financial meltdown. Rather strong words, you say! Hardly. It is just what many of the world' s financial experts have predicted will happen in our recent article ' Ominous Warnings and Dire Predictions of World' s Financial Experts, Part 1.'

Be that as it may, the vast majority of Americans, as indicated in a recent Bloomberg Los Angeles Times poll, remain confident that housing values will continue to flourish and that the high-flying market will come in for a smooth, soft landing instead of a crash. In fact, on average, only 15% of those Americans surveyed expect home prices in their neighbourhood to fall during the next 6 months while 26% see prices rising during that time while those investors making more than $100,000 a year were even more optimistic at 12% and 43% respectively. Indeed, almost 7 out of 10 expect the value of their homes to appreciate by 5% to 30% during the next three years and more than a third singled out real estate as the place they would put additional money if they had it to invest.

Unfortunately, the facts below do not support their optimistic outlook which is doing nothing more than set them up for a harsh dose of reality and financial loss as events unfold . . .

Usul (3/16/06; 04:53:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 142483)
Contest Statsfest!
No. of entries: 67

Histogram of the entries

510-520 ***
520-530 *
530-540 ********
540-550 ***************
550-560 ************
560-570 ************
570-580 *******
580-590 ****
590-600 **
600-610 **
610-620
620-630
630-640
640-650
650-660
660-670
670-680
680-690
690-700
700-710
710-720
720-730
730-740
740-750 *

Average: 560.3
Median: 554.7
Skewness: 3.72
(Skewness characterizes the degree of asymmetry of a distribution around its mean. Positive skewness indicates a distribution with an asymmetric tail extending toward more positive values.)
Kurtosis: 22.1
(Kurtosis characterizes the relative peakedness or flatness of a distribution compared with the normal distribution. Positive kurtosis indicates a relatively peaked distribution.)
Std Dev (of whole popn.) 30.32
Confidence interval at 95% level: 7.26
Confidence limits 553.0 - 567.5
Quartiles:
515-544.6
544.6-554.7
554.7-569.55
569.55-750
Average of 2nd and 3rd quartiles: 556.1

Actual April Contract settlement was $554.4 (Gandalf the White msg# 142459)

E&OE DYODD

admin (3/16/06; 01:04:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 142482)
Winners
Jamie's e-mail address is

jamie@usagold.com

Congrats!

Gandalf the White (3/16/06; 00:47:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 142481)
BTW --- Notice that the WINNER was "in the middle of the pack" !!
The "Ides of March" POG CONTEST

$$$$ $750.0 $$$$ Beamer (3/3/06; 16:07:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 142093)

**** $606.6 **** mdgc (3/9/06; 09:02:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 142246)

$$$$ $601.0 $$$$ Armageddon (3/7/06; 18:25:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 142207)

$$$$ $600.0 $$$$ el dorado (3/6/06; 16:58:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 142174)

$$$$ $599.0 $$$$ contrarian (3/11/06; 01:22:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 142314)

$$$$ $587.0 $$$$ Sundeck (3/6/06; 21:09:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 142183)

$$$$ $585.8 $$$$ Waverider (3/4/06; 21:01:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 142114)

$$$$ $583.4 $$$$ Flatliner (3/3/06; 10:39:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 142088)

$$$$ $580.1 $$$$ Slowman (3/5/06; 15:33:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 142138)
$$$$ $580.0 $$$$ mikal (3/12/06; 22:32:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 142371)

$$$$ $578.9 $$$$ Matthew (3/11/06; 02:50:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 142315)

$$$$ $577.1 $$$$ Chally (3/5/06; 22:37:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 142151)

$$$$ $574.5 $$$$ Whitewaterwoman (3/5/06; 13:28:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 142135)
**** $574.4 **** arbyh (3/5/06; 11:43:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 142133)

$$$$ $572.0 $$$$ Clink! (3/7/06; 06:40:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 142190)
$$$$ $571.9 $$$$ glockmaster19 (3/7/06; 14:33:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 142198)

$$$$ $570.0 $$$$ Liberty Head (3/5/06; 14:02:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 142137)

$$$$ $569.1 $$$$ Caradoc (3/12/06; 23:30:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 142375)

$$$$ $568.8 $$$$ Beer Man (03/04/06; 12:17:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 142102)

$$$$ $568.4 $$$$ Freedom (3/5/06; 11:12:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 142131)

$$$$ $567.6 $$$$ The Knife (3/6/06; 17:14:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 142175)

$$$$ $566.0 $$$$ compwiz4u (3/12/06; 19:19:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 142366)

$$$$ $565.0 $$$$ Rocky (3/3/06; 14:30:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 142091)

$$$$ $564.7 $$$$ Mthirsty1 (3/6/06; 17:55:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 142179)

$$$ FRN564.0 $$$ Goldilox (3/7/06; 12:45:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 142193)

$$$$ $563.4 $$$$ goldquest (3/12/06; 19:09:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 142364)

$$$$ $562.1 $$$$ Rimh (3/11/06; 23:40:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 142337)

$$$ FRN560.5 $$$ Smeagol (3/4/06; 18:22:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 142108)

$$$$ $559.8 $$$$ 2023 (3/9/06; 02:13:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 142241)

**** $558.3 **** Boilermaker (3/9/06; 17:02:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 142265)

$$$$ $556.6 $$$$ Believer (3/12/06; 19:01:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 142363)

$$$$ $556.0 $$$$ Wky_Woodsman (3/12/06; 20:48:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 142369)

$$$$ $555.5 $$$$ Usul (3/10/06; 13:04:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 142293)

$$$$ $554.7 $$$$ canamami (3/12/06; 17:44:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 142361)

$$$$ $553.8 $$$$ 24karat (3/11/06; 11:04:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 142318)

$$$$ $553.4 $$$$ The Hoople (3/12/06; 12:43:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 142354)

$$$$ $553.1 $$$$ goldenpeace (3/12/06; 10:03:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 142345)

$$$$ $552.6 $$$$ Goldendome (3/12/06; 22:56:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 142374)

$$$$ $552.0 $$$$ Noble1 (3/11/06; 16:50:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 142328)

$$$$ $551.1 $$$$ osa104c (3/9/06; 18:57:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 142270)

$$$$ $550.0 $$$$ Felix the Cat (3/11/06; 07:13:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 142316)

$$$$ $549.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (3/4/06; 22:13:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 142117)

$$$$ $549.0 $$$$ Lance (3/10/06; 12:21:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 142292)

$$$$ $548.5 $$$$ beowulf + (3/10/06; 07:54:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 142283)

$$$$ $548.0 $$$$ YGM (3/10/06; 09:27:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 142285)

$$$$ $547.0 $$$$ spikedog (3/12/06; 22:51:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 142373)

$$$$ $546.5 $$$$ Topaz (3/4/06; 20:26:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 142112)

$$$$ $545.6 $$$$ R Powell (3/12/06; 08:10:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 142343)

$$$$ $545.2 $$$$ Tate (3/12/06; 15:29:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 142358)

$$$$ $544.8 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (3/11/06; 20:08:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 142331)

$$$$ $544.4 $$$$ Black Blade (3/12/06; 18:36:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 142362)

$$$$ $543.7 $$$$ 24Wortel (3/12/06; 11:21:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 142350)

$$$$ $543.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (3/9/06; 15:50:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 142260)

$$$$ $542.3 $$$$ Prius (3/12/06; 13:16:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 142355)

$$$$ $542.0 $$$$ slingshot (3/12/06; 08:07:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 142342)

$$$$ $540.0 $$$$ Camel (3/10/06; 17:45:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 142305)

$$$$ $539.9 $$$$ guns'n'butter (3/10/06; 22:13:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 142308)

$$$$ $539.0 $$$$ Max Rabbitz (3/12/06; 11:07:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 142349)

$$$$ $538.2 $$$$ Shermag (3/11/06; 11:15:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 142320)

$$$$ $537.3 $$$$ balzac (3/10/06; 10:10:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 142287)

$$$$ $535.7 $$$$ Toolie (3/10/06; 20:59:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 142307)

$$$$ $534.0 $$$$ Buongiorno! (3/12/06; 16:19:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 142359)

$$$$ $533.0 $$$$ Nomad (3/10/06; 19:17:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 142306)

$$$$ $530.0 $$$$ tejbear (3/8/06; 04:54:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 142212)

$$$$ $520.0 $$$$ DryWasher (3/11/06; 09:34:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 142317)

$$$$ $518.9 $$$$ 7nomads (3/11/06; 22:33:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 142333)

$$$$ $515.0 $$$$ Goldenera (3/12/06; 10:22:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 142346)
---
<;-)




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