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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/16/2006
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Gandalf the White (01/16/06; 23:35:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 140548)
WOWSERS !!!
http://isht.comdirect.de/html/detail/main.html?sTab=chart&hist=1d&sSym=GLD.FX1
Volatility !
<;-)

Hektor (01/16/06; 22:33:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 140547)
Barbarous Relic
A correction: Keynes did not say that gold is a barbarous relic; he said the gold standard is a barbarous relic.

Goldilox (01/16/06; 21:18:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 140546)
"China's Global Reach: Markets, Multinationals, Globalization"
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2006/Gu.html
Great interview - well worth listening.

Goldilox (01/16/06; 20:54:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 140545)
Alcoa phasing out traditional pensions
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE86E3187%2D0E2E%2D4D3C%2DBA07%2D22EDDDF9AB52%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=
snip:

New hires to be offered 401(k)s from March 1

By Jim Jelter, MarketWatch
Last Update: 7:28 PM ET Jan. 16, 2006

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - In another sign of how rare defined benefit pensions are becoming among the nation's blue chip employers, Alcoa said Monday most salaried workers joining its ranks after March 1 will be offered a 401(k) retirement plan.

The move aims to limit long-term liabilities faced by Alcoa as pensions costs and the number of retirees swell. At the same time, the company said the changes would have no immediate impact on its profitability.

The giant Pittsburgh-based aluminum producer said defined benefit pension plans, which provide guaranteed income using company-managed funds, will remain intact for current Alcoa employees, retirees, and union workers.

But salaried newcomers will be offered a defined contribution plan based on a combination of pretax paycheck and bonus withholdings and company matching funds.

"We will move to a defined contribution system for new hires -- a contribution to a 401(k) plan of 3% of salary and bonus, in addition to our match programs on the first 6% contributed -- that gives employees significant flexibility and portability of their retirement savings," the company said in a statement.

Alcoa said the move followed a review of the marketplace in which it found nearly 65 percent of employers' pension packages rest primarily on 401(k) plans.

Proponents of defined contribution pensions argue they give workers more control over how their retirement nest egg is invested and that it can more easily follow them from one employer to another.

Critics say 401(k)s transfer more financial risk to employees while allowing companies to shave costs by skirting long-term financial commitments to their workforce, handing employees what amounts to a pay cut not felt until they retire.

-Goldilox

Another corporation opts to pass all its retirement risk to its employees, setting them up for another 2001-style 401k implosion. Once the asset deflation is complete, "Hello indentured servitude" to pay pay off all those inflated mortgages they lured folks into with generational low finance rates.

Ain't stagflation grand? Unfortunately, the "stag's head" on the hunter's trophy wall will be that of the consumer who traded his life for the "American Dream", and believed that the pyramid scheme of $ hegemony would last forever.

Smeagol (01/16/06; 19:21:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 140544)
Sssir MK

While we are are not ssavvy on the intricate details of the hedge-massters... but looking at the quarterly hedge-book figures...it sseems quite possible (to our always-looking-for-the sinisster-side-of-things mind)...sss... depending on how fasst It rises and how fasst the mines pay It into the hedges, a ssituation could occur that they sstay underwater for a long time, dollar wise... if ssomeone wantss it that way, or has designed it to be sso... maybe it does not matter.

Jusst thinking out loud... (dangerous grin)

S.

MK (01/16/06; 18:53:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 140543)
Smeagol
You are so right.. .the hidden, forgotten story here is the one of the hedge books, and bullion bank gold loan gaurantees. Anglo Gold, for example, in my opinion, is playing a pr game with shedding Ashanti. We could have a blow-up anytime, and it could be a household name (at least around the castle household), or could come out of the blue. . . .

Goldilox (01/16/06; 18:51:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 140541)
Event manipulation
Belgian,

Although I have stated more than once that I agree with you, you still persist in professing that I don't. I don't think we're getting through to each other very well.

However, let me recount one major great example of the "event manipulation" I am talking about - contrary to trend.

Prior to the last Iraq invasion, gold was hovering in the $300+ range. As invasion became imminent, it jumped rather quickly to $385, dropping soon after back to $325.

I'm not arguing that this was any kind of trend change, but it was certainly an example of a 20% "wobble" as a response to geopolitical events.

Just the kind of "wobble" that lets market weenies wriggle out of some bad trades and dump some of their losses on those who are gullible enough to get "in the trading game" and follow their "gold advisors".


Belgian (01/16/06; 18:32:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 140540)
@Goldilox
The two main events-event trends + slopes, of the last decade are : Goldprice down to $253 and up...to xxxx ?
I am of the opinion that the so called traders, parasiting on both trends (down-up), are a neglectible side show.
You certainly remember my opinion on the notion of "market". Market-trends are "made"/fabricated/constructed, by very dominant powers. That's why I mentioned Enron as a perfect example.

All gold commentators/observers invent a wide variety of reasons as to explain each and every move and trend(s) without ever finding the real fundamental reason why a certain trend/direction exists/existed.

So called markets are very often hyper-dominated by invisible molochs (conglomerates). They increasingly can make the impossible happen. Simply because they know where they want gold to be or not to be. That is the ultimate power of those that are privileged by the money (confetti) issuers/managers. Yes, Big powers can and do clash. But these wars are above what we call (free)markets.

Most of the market participants are simply "followers". That makes markets often (now more than ever before) so irrational.

So, I don't care what the eventual slopes for the goldprice are or will be. Because I stick to my conviction that the overwhelming forces want gold's revaluation, their way and not the market's followers way.

The dominant gold-pricers/valuators know very well how the followers react on their strategies. I am not observing exclusively on gold but on other things too. IMO, the evidence is often crystal clear.

Think about "the maestro" Sir Alan. Not a follower but a market leader (very visible hand).

We watch if the gold-revaluation theory is correct or not.



Smeagol (01/16/06; 18:26:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 140539)
If It keeps going like this for the quarter....
...some hedgebooks are going to get VERY heavy...

S.

Goldilox (01/16/06; 18:23:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 140538)
Don't stop arguing!
In all you years here, have you still failed to notice that gold makes it best moves when the castle is quibbbling?

White Rose (01/16/06; 17:57:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 140537)
Hey, quit arguing! Gold just hit $564.
Not bad for a barbarous relic.

I bet all those short gold now wish that their contracts were null and void right now. I think going short gold is a good way to become a barbarous relic yourself.

Goldilox (1/16/06; 17:35:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 140536)
Upside down
@ Belgian,

Please be so kind as to suggest just what you think I have "out of order". Your response is too cryptic to derive it from that.

I certainly never said that events drive the market, I merely said they are "used" to mess with the dailies to adjust the slope for the traders.

Thanks in advance -

-G

MK (1/16/06; 16:49:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 140535)
David Linkley -- Some conjecture on the German gold sale rumor
It wouldn't surprise me to learn that some major German bank is in trouble on its gold loans, the result of the rising prices. The strange stories out of Germany over the past few years -- the odd Welteke episode wherein he publicly kited about a dozen different reasons to sell; the constant pressure from certain political quarters to get Bundesbank to unload; the huge derivative position, etc. -- point to something going on over there for which we have not gotten the whole story. It would surprise me however to learn that Axel Weber, the Bundesbank president, had caved-in to the pressure after his widely publicized stance against gold sales late last year.

Reade is right when he says it won't matter in the larger scheme of things since the sales will still fall within the Washington Agreement guidelines.

I would add a second element. If actually sold, the gold will likely be channelled to the bullion banks needing it and from there it will go to the depositors demanding their gold back. -- and it could be to Iranian depositors (you will remember stories about Iranian gold repatriation a couple of years ago). It is unlikely that this gold will even reach the marketplace. In other words, even if true a German sale would most likely turn out to be a non-event, after a possible sell-off (buying opportunity).

There is also the possibility that this is a planted rumor. If so, it wouldn't take a financial genius to figure out why someone might want to start such a rumor at this juncture. Even if the rumor were true however, I do not think it will affect the general market direction. Back in the 1970s the United States sold into the bull market. It was like throwing a quarter into a black hole. It just disappeared.



David Linkley (1/16/06; 15:11:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 140534)
@TownCrier
Why do you think the gold short position is overstated? If the COT are out to maximize profits, why not jump on the long side of a secular bull instead of shorting all the way up from $250. Their trading activities lead me to believe other motives are at play.

TownCrier (1/16/06; 14:55:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 140533)
David Linkley
http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/date/2004/html/pr040308.en.html
I've typically been of the opinion that all the talk of troubled shorts is way overdone.

But that's neither here nor there, regarding Germany. If indeed there is a materialization of the current sales rumor, here's the MAIN reason why it shouldn't surpise anyone -- see URL.

Regards,
R.

David Linkley (1/16/06; 14:46:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 140532)
German gold sales?
As reported in Lemetropole this afternoon, John Reade gold analyst at UBS is reporting a possible announcement in the next couple of days of Bundesbank gold sales leaked through Reuters Frankfort office. Given the number of upside down gold shorts out there this possibility shouldn't suprise anyone.

USAGOLD Daily Market Report (1/16/06; 14:09:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 140531)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

MONDAY Market Exceprt

Gold up overseas while US on holiday

January 16 (from Reuters) -- Gold rose to fresh 25-year peaks in Europe on Monday while U.S. markets were closed for Martin Luther King Day.

By 1533 GMT spot gold was at $561.60/562.40 a troy ounce, just off a fresh high of $562.

Dealers said investors and fund managers had been buying precious metals because of high energy prices, global security worries and the dollar's weak outlook. Concerns about bird flu were also cited.

Gold has added nine percent this year and investment banks and trade houses have sharply raised their price forecasts.

Alan Williamson of HSBC Bank voiced concern at the speed of gold's rally. "We quite like metals, but probably not at these prices. Look at the way gold has gone -- up $100 an ounce in less than two months... It's not inconceivable that you could see $600, $650 or a silly number, but I think gold is getting above its fair value," Williamson said.

Others saw that as bullish as they felt the dynamics in the market had changed.

Traders attributed recent gold strength to talk of buying by a Middle East central bank. That could not be ruled out given current turmoil in the region, analysts said.

"Recent price action again appears to point to a significant buyer at work," RBC Capital Markets said in a daily report.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---

Belgian (1/16/06; 14:07:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 140530)
@Goldilox
The "events" are the result of changes in policies !!!!!
Don't put things upside down.

Irak invaded Kuwait as to force higher oilprices (policy)...and then all the events start happening.
EMU policies (+ its growing coalition) want freegold...and then the gold-action-events followed.

It is very important to put things in the right order (sequence).

The financial industry + colluding media, still want us to believe that it are the events that cause the goldprice to move...bull, bear, bubble, etc...

Ad if you really want to "understand" the financial industry's systemic modus operandi >>> Think about the complete story of Enron (and tutti frutti). That is the real world !



Belgian (1/16/06; 13:52:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 140529)
Peak in cheap oil (1999-$10/barril)
Right Flatliner ! It is the ***** PRICING ***** of oil that has drastically changed from the old order !!!!!



USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (1/16/06; 12:48:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 140528)
A world of gold at your fingertips...
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html





David Linkley (1/16/06; 12:02:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 140527)
Endangered species - Elliott Wave top callers
Tops have been called in oil, gold, copper, or just about any hard asset in the past several months. They have all been dead wrong. A twenty plus year underinvestment in commodity production combined with Asian demand plus the ongoing currency (gold) revaluations have made mincemeat of future predictions. IMO, get gold NOW while you can, the storm is almost here.

Goldilox (1/16/06; 10:51:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 140526)
Peak oil
While I read a number of sources that debate "Peak oil" as a marketing invention, it's rather obvious that part of what we are seeing is "Peak Cheap Oil", at the very least.

Whether this is truly a geological phenomenon or more a geopolitical one is a focus of much debate.

Either way, the price is rising!

Flatliner (1/16/06; 10:01:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 140525)
@Belgian, Moving the goldprice !?
"They wanted to stick peak oil to the public" – Ah, once again, you show a point of view that it outside mainstream that spikes my curiosity. If I understand this correctly, your point of view would be that the rise in oil price has nothing to do with peak oil. I would go a step further and speculate that it's completely immaterial whether we're at peak oil or not. But, those that want change in price need a good story that is ‘outside the curtain’, so to speak. A reason for the increase that is not as open as someone saying – ‘your dollar has no value to us.’ Or, ‘because you are no longer giving us gold, we're going to let the price climb.’ It seems like good politics to come up with peak oil. That way, no one looks at the one in charge of the resource as the ‘one’ to blame for upsetting the system. Sometimes, it seems a simple answer is the most logical.

Goldilox (1/16/06; 09:12:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 140524)
Moving the Gold Price?
http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm
@ Belgian,

While I agree in principle that "events", themselves, are not the prime movers of PoG, the "event trend" likely has some effect on the "slope" of the curve, as it makes it harder for the shorts "to get a word in edgewise" in the transactional conversation.

See today's urbansurvival.com for an interesting discussion of the "event trend".

Belgian (1/16/06; 07:30:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 140523)
Moving the goldprice !?
The Iran matters have nothing to do with the pricing/valuation of gold !!! We had already TWO Gulf wars and an oilstate in flames (Kuweit). We had oil nationalised (Russia) and a stop in gas deliveries (Ukraine). There was a Tsunami and Katrina.
Nothing of all this is having a direct impact on gold's price ! These are all temporary explanations for public consumption as to avoid telling the "real" reason for the changing gold.
They wanted to stick peak oil to the public but can't do this with gold for obvious reasons.

Cavan Man (1/16/06; 06:55:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 140522)
Driving AU this AM??
Iran issues stark warning on oil price

War of words over trade sanctions

Robert Tait in Tehran
Monday January 16, 2006
The Guardian


Iran stepped up its defiance of international pressure over its nuclear programme yesterday by warning of soaring oil prices if it is subjected to economic sanctions. As diplomats from the US, Europe, Russia, and China prepared to meet today in London to discuss referring Tehran to the UN security council, Iran's economy minister, Davoud Danesh-Jafari, said the country's position as the world's fourth-largest oil producer meant such action would have grave consequences.

Buongiorno! (1/16/06; 06:01:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 140521)
Anglo Break-up @Goldilox 508

Thanks for the link and heads-up. My thoughts, FWIT, are twofold. One, The Ashanti thing may have to do with their hedge book worries (where ARE they now?)and thus bullish for gold--if we truly believe those guys know (or control) what is going on.

The other transactions are less than clear. Perhaps, it is a part of the cyclical nature of markets where one phase is to put-em-together and another is take-em-apart. Remember back when Gulf and Western bought everything it could, then started selling later when things changed, interest rates rose, and carrying costs were higher? Lots of others did the same thing.

Perhaps overall, there is just not enough detail yet to figure this out. Others? Many thinks for your efforts to keep us all aware.
Buongiorno!

Ned (1/16/06; 04:24:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 140520)
@ Belgian
We watch together how "nervous" and how "disciplined" the gold and oil markets REALLY are in the coming months.

As Sinclair said "one drop" of Saudi blood, well add this to the mix, one bomb in Iran and we watch the oil market in particular.

.....replacing the black w/ yellow amigo. Your best line ever!


Take care & have a golden day.

Belgian (1/16/06; 03:50:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 140519)
Simple...
Time out for *-easy oil-*...and soon (maybe very soon) we will realize that EASY GOLD also finished, so suddenly !?

Goldilox (1/16/06; 03:19:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 140518)
RE story
I heard a really trippy RE story today. A friend told me (its already 'hearsay') that her parents tried to sell some RE and the buyer offered them bullion for a down payment. They were so concerned that it might be "dirty money", that they turned the offer down and requested cash instead - as if that "laundered" the proceeds sufficiently - LOL

I only bring this up to demonstate that John Q still distrusts gold and gold proponents.

OK, the gold bull market is alive and well.



Goldilox (1/16/06; 03:14:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 140517)
Up, up, and away-ay
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO
in my beautiful balloon!

Goldilox (1/16/06; 03:05:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 140516)
Who's to blame?
@ Rook,

"God gets the blame for this, as is his lot,"

Yes, it's always easier to blame "forces unseen", be they "God" or the boogeyman, rather than endure the pain of serious self-examination.

A lot of energy is expended keeping the wizards' curtains tightly drawn, but there is also a lot of effort being focused on removing the veil, as evidenced in this forum.

"By their works ye shall know them!"

Goldilox (1/16/06; 02:49:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 140515)
"Part" of the problem
@ WH,

"Has uncontrolled Government spending brought us to this point where the dollar is declining or in the last 60 years have other forces of politics and economics led us down this path to what seems to be eventual bankruptcy. My belief is that it is an effect and not the cause of our present economic dilemma."

I would agree that other political forces are involved, but I'm not so sure they are really that independent of profligate government spending. Maybe they are just "horses of a different color."

When a dog bites, it's only the teeth part that hurts, but the whole dog is involved in the biting.

Democans and Replublicrats alike have fully subscribed to the hyperbolic decline of the dollar for generations - one could say, even as far back as Lincoln, who chose bankruptcy over Federal dissolution. Unlike our ignorant history "textbooks" would have us believe, this was a greater manifestation of "Federalism" than any of Hamilton's policies. WWI was an extension of that policy, as JP Morgan was allowed to pass his bad UK war loans along to the US Treasury through the misdirection of the Lusitania. Hearst and the other Yellow Press proponents honed their war-fervor whipping skills in TR's war of Spanish colonial conquest, and fully conspired in bring the US into WWI to "rescue" Great British empire from complete bankruptcy.

The actions of creating the FED, debasing money, stripping the west of manufacturing capability in favor of cheap foreign labor - coupled with expensive marketing and transport, and controlling subservient markets through abusive banking are all inter-related, but they all absolutely rely on debasing currencies to work effectively.

I can't say definitively whether the goal is truly "one world government", but the driving force is certainly "one world banking," with absolute power over the currencies. The enemies of that movement are any one who suggests an alt currency outside their absolute control, i.e. Islamic gold Dinar, or it seems, any real gold backing.

The Euro proponents may argue this point, but the fact that the ECB has some gold in its vaults does not guarantee "backing" unless they are willing and able to trade their gold to Euro holders on demand.

I'm going to go out on a limb here, but I firmly believe that wars are part of the "entertainment" designed to mask the "man behind the curtain", and find it sad that the PTB always find it preferable to waste such an unGodly proportion of their productive resources protecting fiefdoms.

Many people smarter than me have said it, but the greatest challenge to a technolgical society is to overcome its ability to destroy itself, and Nukes and WMDs are only "some" of the many ways that can come about. Market destruction can be just as deadly, but we've never witnessed anything greater than 1930, as TPTB always lead us into war to mask its effects and protect their historical positions of privilege.

Topaz (1/16/06; 02:03:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 140514)
alt-Gold.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=100/DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=
Dec and Jan have, it seems, got back on song with the Currencies which, I might add augurs well for a swooning Buck and firmer Bonds going (inching) forward.

Let's see how today goes without a live-action Comex!

Rook (1/16/06; 01:33:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 140513)
.,.
I guess it is a safe bet that in 2006 iranian nuke efforts will be attacked with general approval. chavez will cut his oil I bet in protest, and that may result in takeover of that countries oil fields. Or the demise of chavez.
The iran president will scream for revenge, and wont that be a nice sunny day. God gets the blame for this, as is his lot, so we may see some, well, I will bet we definately will see some terrorist style reaction in the so called west. How this affects the price of gold...........If Gandolf runs a contest asking how high gold will go this year, I pick 650.

Gene (1/16/06; 01:24:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 140512)
Who's Buying-Who's Selling
Okay, so I'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer. So answer me this: Somebody wants gold and they pay for it with dollars. Somebody sells the gold because they want dollars. What are they going to do with those dollars? Those dollars are losing value. Who wants them in place of gold? Are the gold buyers getting in while the getting's good? Well, I guess I would.
Buying gold now at $550,knowing that it's going much higher
is a given. So who is selling & why? Is our Treasury that stupid? Well, the UK was.
Maybe someone has an answer. Why buy dollars with your gold?

Belgian (1/16/06; 00:45:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 140511)
@OvS
AA always wants to optimalize (leverage) the values (shareprices) that it is holding. The very essence of the financial industry. Merging and demerging.

Have no idea what the "specific" reasons now are. Let's wait and see who's taking the Anglogold A. shares.

Note how the financial media profit from the announcement to suggest that we are in a goldprice "bubble" !?

White Hills (1/16/06; 00:05:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 140510)
Simplistic Answer
Sir Goldilox, My intention was to point out to Liberty Head that his statement that uncontrolled Government spending was the source of the dollar decline, was and is simplistic. That doesn't mean that Government spending is not part of the problem, just not the only problem. I agree with your economic outlook to a large degree and have no argument with you. The truth is that the political part of his post just vexed me. However, a question for you, is Government spending a cause or effect? Has uncontrolled Government spending brought us to this point where the dollar is declining or in the last 60 years have other forces of politics and economics led us down this path to what seems to be eventual bankruptcy. My belief is that it is an effect and not the cause of our present economic dilemma. What say you? White Hills



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