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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/16/2003
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
ElGordo
(01/16/03; 23:07:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 94725)
China now seems to be creating an inflationary wave in a wide range of industrial commodities
http://www.forbes.com/home_asia/newswire/2003/01/14/rtr846004.html
"While the global manufacturing sector flirts with deflationary forces, China now seems to be creating an inflationary wave in a wide range of industrial commodities," said Sean Darby, senior strategist at Nomura in Hong Kong.
The good news for companies feeding on this boom is that the shortages in refining capacity are likely to persist.
SHORTAGES EVERYWHERE
In 20 years, China would be short of three billion tonnes of iron, 500-600 million tonnes of copper and 100 million tonnes of aluminium, according to a report by the Chinese Academy of Geological Science carried on Sunday by the Workers Daily.
China would also face shortages of tungsten and zinc, which at present it exports to the world market.
"By the year 2020, China will need to import 500 million tonnes of crude oil and 100 billion cubic metres of natural gas, about 70 percent and 50 percent, respectively, of the country's total consumption," the newspaper added.
China already has to import about 50 percent of its industrial chemicals, according to Cheng Khoo, a chemicals analyst at UBS Warburg in Hong Kong.
Galerider
(01/16/03; 23:02:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 94724)
****390.00****
Hopefully, this is a very conservative estimate. I believe the next significant event will be John Q. Public and Joe Sixpack catching the trend of the precious metals after witnessing all other alternative investments going nowhere fast in 2003.
ElGordo
(01/16/03; 22:50:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 94723)
BOC gets permission to import Gold!!!
Shanghai, Jan. 17 (Dow Jones) - China's central bank has granted approval to Bank of
China, or BOC, to import and export gold, marking the first time a commercial bank has been
allowed to purchase gold from the overseas market, a BOC official said Friday.
The central bank couldn't be immediately reached for comment.
"We got approval from the People's Bank of China (the central bank) recently," said the
official at BOC's treasury department in Beijing.
"But it doesn't mean the imports of gold could start immediately, as we need to get a host of
permits from other government arms...such as the permit for buying foreign currencies from
the authority for foreign exchange management," the official said, referring to the State
Administration of Foreign Exchange.
He wouldn't comment on the timetable for gold imports by his bank, but predicted that BOC
would acquire all the permits from different government departments "soon".
In the past, Chinese commercial banks normally weren't allowed to import and export gold,
though they were allowed to trade gold in the international markets.
China's central bank was the nation's sole gold importer and exporter up until the launch of
the Shanghai Gold Exchange Oct. 30 last year.
Since the central bank withdrew from the import and export market for gold when the
Shanghai bourse debuted, no Chinese commercial banks have obtained government
approval for such activities except BOC.
______________
More Gold please :-)
ElGordo
(01/16/03; 22:39:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 94722)
Shortage of Gold in China!
Shanghai, Jan. 17 (Dow Jones) - Gold traded on China's sole precious metals exchange hit a record high Friday morning amid a shortage in supply, analysts said.
On the Shanghai Gold Exchange at 0240 GMT, the most heavily-traded gold bullion of 99.95% purity was quoted at a 95.32 yuan ($1=CNY8.28) per gram record high, compared with Thursday's close of CNY94.54/gram.
The remaining 99.99% purity gold hasn't seen any trade.
Gold prices in Shanghai have been hitting record highs almost nonstop recently and have jumped over 10% compared with their closing price Oct. 30.
Gains for Shanghai gold outpaced the rises overseas owing to producers' unwillingness to offer the metal, though China's gold has been tracking the international gold prices since the exchange was launched Oct. 30 last year.
"Domestic producers have been holding on to gold to wait for even higher prices," a local gold analyst said.
"Gold prices have been rising in overseas and domestic markets due to concerns over a (possible) U.S.-led war against Iraq," the analyst added. "Chinese producers have caught the point (on the war concerns) and cut their gold offering in order to create more profit after prices further strengthened by such an intended cut."
(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires
17-01-03 0317GMT
DJ China Gold/Record High -3: Gold Imports May Rise Soon
Another supportive factor was that China hasn't imported any gold since late last year.
Since the Shanghai Gold Exchange was launched, the central bank has yet to allow any domestic commercial bank to import gold, though it has withdrawn from the import business.
Up until the launch of China's gold exchange, China's central bank, the People's Bank of China, was the country's sole gold importer.
However, an exchange official in Shanghai said the central bank would have "no problem" in allowing local commercial banks to import gold soon.
China's gold consumption is believed by market participants to total around 200 metric tons a year, outpacing its production.
China's gold production in 2002 is estimated to have fallen to about 180 tons from 181.83 tons in 2001, due to the government's shutting down of small gold mines, analysts said.
The Chinese statistical authority hasn't released gold production figures for 2002.
China's gold market is off limits to foreign investors.
_____________________________
Yeehaaa
Kagalaska
(01/16/03; 22:29:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 94721)
******367.40****
Gold means different things to different people- investment, last chance, fetish, hobby, job, everything, nothing ect.For me gold is a posibility, for what I hav'nt figured out cause I dont know where its going, but while its up I'm there and when its down I guess I'll be there to theres just something about that LUSTure. It dosn't matter where you fall on the list just increase your holding. One day(sooner rather than later) you will be glad you did.
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 22:07:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 94720)
**************** $378.10 ******************
Just so as not to be too conservative. The dollar is falling. Good stocks are few and far between. B. Gates knows this and Microsoft has declared a dividend. Smart man. Largely, the rest are without hope, relatively. War will not occur and this will be good for gold, because then it will still seem like it is going to. Oil will jump. The Euro will strengthen. Mr. Bush's position in public office will be reinforced in numerous ways, too difficult to predict to be explained here. There will be no attack on America. Production of gasoline will decline. The price will go up, alarming everyone. More people will buy gold. This will make speculators eager, and so the price will go up.
Waverider
(01/16/03; 21:56:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 94719)
YAHOOOOO......
Another price guessing contest - thank you both Sir MK and Sir Gandalf! If I remember correctly, Spot just LOVED the last one and went just a LITTLE crazy after it was announced...tomorrow should be INTERESTING!
Gandalf the White
(01/16/03; 21:48:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 94718)
TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!
COMEX POG Settlement Price Guessing CONTEST !
Prior posts ---
Chap X aka GOLDen Greek usagold.com msg#: 94696)
Gandalf.... I second that emotion.....
---
Thanks Sir Chap X, <;-) and that was all that was needed !
Sir MK said "LET’S DO IT !!"
*******
THE RULES -- (We MUST have RULES !!) --- PLEASE READ !!
1) THIS Contest consists of TWO Portions --- A Price Prognostication and a Discussion Statement !
2) The Winner is the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) FEBRUARY 2003 Gold Contract (GC3G) on the date of Friday, the 31st of January, 2003.
3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $345.6)
4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "STARS" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as ****** $345.6 *******)
5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON on Wednesday, January 29th, 2003.
7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication,--- A small paragraph or two must accompany your guess, as to what YOU BELIEVE to be the NEXT important gold development(s) or event(s) and why.
---
THE PRIZES !!
To the person with the exact or closest "Guess" to the February ‘03 (GC3G) SETTLEMENT price on Friday, January 31st, 2003 -----
The prize will be an ANTIQUE (OVER 100 years old)goldpiece !!
Go to the Webpage below and you can see it !!
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html
This Switzerland "Confederatio" 20 franc gold coin was
Minted between 1883 and 1896, has a gold Fineness of 0.900 and an actual Gold Content of 0.1867 troy ounce.
(Fair Market Value in Uncirculated condition is about $150.)
---BUT, it may be more by the end of this CONTEST, <;-)
ALSO, the "Runners-up" shall each receive a Canadian Silver Maple Leaf containing one ounce of PURE SILVER !
(Rich, Did you see that ?)
===
QUEST -- The FEB. 2003 COMEX Gold Contract (GC3G) SETTLEMENT Price on January 31, 2003:
PREVIOUS Days GC3G Settlement prices were:
1/16/02 $358.1 + $6.9 with a HIGH = $359.0 and a LOW = $350.
===
A CALL TO CONTEST!!!
COME ON IN ALL you Lurkers !! Stop thinking about it and Sign-up for your FREE Password and JUMP on in here and win the FREE GOLD (or Silver) !!! Just click on the "Discussion Forum Guidelines"
LINK at the "WELCOME" statement atop of THIS PAGE!!
READ the "Rules" and request your posting "Password" !!! SIMPLE, and you can't beat the SUBSCRIPTION Price, as it is FREE !!! ( AND USAGOLD will not SELL your info either !)
<;-)
---
LET the CONTEST BEGIN !!
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 21:42:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 94717)
@ Rich
"Hopefully, the laws of supply and demand, psychology and politics will be the most powerful forces overall."
--I don't know. Sometimes biological entities move in ways hard to anticipate. The human species, and its myriad of variants, is likely to do something in the near future that will surprise all of us. That seems to be in the wind.
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 21:36:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 94716)
!
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=dmax
POG is looking very, very strong.
mikal
(01/16/03; 21:33:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 94715)
@Cb2
Re: Value of gold
Well said!
And clearly understood... to most!!
Regards, Goldustorm, Goldhorizon
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 21:27:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 94714)
@ Powell
No, no. I wasn't meaning that you had suggest I was weird. I was saying that a lot of other people do sometimes say that they think I am weird. There, I think that is the right speeling of that word (weerd). Oh, and spelling, not speeling.
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 21:25:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 94713)
info
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s&w=5&t=c&a=12
POG has been consolidating around 356. Watch the ratio of buys to sells. Watch also the effect on POG which sells have. Further, observe the relationship this has to the moving average. It has already been determined that the moving average will go higher. When it does, there are only two things that are possible. Either POG will remain above it, or POG will cross below it. If below it, sells will increase to some extent. In this case, watch the effect which sells have on POG. If small, POG will go higher. If great, lower. If POG remains above the moving average, then the moving average will at a later time have to incline upward more steeply. When it does this, there are only two things possible. Either POG will stay above it, or POG will cross below it. If it goes below it, then watch to see how many sells there are, and the effect they have on POG. If POG stays above the moving average, in order to do this, POG will have to jump significantly higher quickly, at some point later in the day. This seems likely. The reason: sells have increasingly diminished during previous days and weeks. Sellers are experiencing a decline in their motive to sell.
R Powell
(01/16/03; 21:23:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 94712)
a nation of one
I certainly did NOT want to give you or anyone the impression that I thought your thinking "wierd". Actually, I thought it made perfect sense. I was just trying to expand the definition of a manipulated market. Imho, to varying degrees, I believe they are all "manipulated" at some time or another, some intentionally and some not. This too is part of the game but a part I do not spend too much time trying to fiqure out. (Currency markets seem the most susceptible to unpredictable and manipulated moves)
Hopefully, the laws of supply and demand, psychology and politics will be the most powerful forces overall. They're all part of the puzzle.
I enjoy your thoughts. Keep them coming!
Rich
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 20:51:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 94711)
@ Topaz (01/16/03; 20:12:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 94709)pog
"When all the pieces of a puzzle don't quite fit, we must accept that many interpretations of this Golden surrealist collage are possible."
--Yes, that's true. But when the truth is known, it turns out to be one thing.
R Powell
(01/16/03; 20:46:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 94710)
Selling that which does not exist
Sector, your contention that 16,000 tonnes have obligations against them may very well be true. My question is...Has the physical gold left the vaults? A year or two ago when the 16,000 ton number first appeared, it was questioned and the fact that about 30,000 tonnes of the 33,000 tonnes of the world's central banks gold never left the banks. The physical is not gone. M.K. gave his opinion that the often mentioned central bank selling may be a shell game with banks selling and buying to one another. Why do we always hear of central bank selling and not the buying? Why do the reports never say " Three hundred tonnes of gold was BOUGHT last year from the bank of England..." My point is.. the gold is NOT physically gone. The 16,000 tonnes may have a lien on it but it is not gone.
As for ....
"There can be no short derivative [Which is what we are talking about] established unless there first is a source of real metal. One cannot short an equity without borrowing it from someone else, one CAN buy calls with fiat easily."
Any trader can short or sell a contract of gold, silver, soybeans, etc. I am presently short 5000 ounces of March silver (covered by a call option). I have sold 5000 ounces of silver that I do not have and did not borrow. I must offset this sold position before a specific date or I may be called upon to deliver that which I do not have, that which I have not borrowed and that which I have absolutely no means of furnishing!! Don't worry, even if I do not offset in time, my broker will call to remind me, and even then if I do not act promptly, my broker MUST, by law, offset the position when the time arrives since I do not have the sufficient funds to cover.
The short selling of equities requires borrowing the shares from a broker. Commodities trading does not work this way. Speculative players may buy or sell futures which are promises to take possession or promises to make delivery at a set price on a specified date in the future. These positions (held on margin) may be offset at any time before the specified date and must be offset for any and all not capable of making or taking delivery. Options, too can be bought or sold, with the require monetary margin. Other than hedgers, it is all a paper game. Sound, fury, pain and gain all settled in fiat.
The possession of to surrender or the ability to pay the outstanding balance are not necessary requirements. I have bought and sold options on the DOW and S+P. These are index numbers. There are now derivatives being bought and sold on the whether there will be more or fewer bankruptcies at future dates. No one borrows bankruptcies before entering this casino game on the short side. Possession has absolutely nothing to do with the speculative interest in commodities.
Believe me, if the physical commodities did not even exist, speculators would find something else to speculate about.
It is a hard concept to grasp that derivatives derive their value (cash settlement price) daily from something else. It's existence may be essential for life as we know it but it's existence does not even matter for price settlement. All that matters is that it does have a variable price that can be determined. Madness? Probably.
That selling of that which does not exist occurs every day is most probably best seen in silver. There may be more silver sold right now on Comex than is in storage in the world (not counting jewelry, silverware, unmined silver). This drives Butler nuts but it is just part of the game.
Rich
Topaz
(01/16/03; 20:12:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 94709)
a nation of one.
When all the pieces of a puzzle don't quite fit, we must accept that many interpretations of this Golden surrealist collage are possible.
I share your opinion that JPM is largely as they say they are (re: gold exposure) but the interesting aspect is "how they got there".
The Blanchard suit may well prove successful as it's my thinking, during the turnaround, (strong/weak dollar) JPM "may have" pocketed the bulk of what now appears as Treasury's "deep storage" Gold....and the Admin is pissed!
There is also imo no such thing as Black and White manipulation, if we all sit idly by waiting for BoJ intervention on the $/Yen, as is the case now, then by inference we accept ALL market intervention/manipulation....sad but true.
Another curiosity is the " HUI and Dollar index-outperform" of those historically Gold currencies - the ZAR in particular.
The shell-game is becoming more apparent by the day.
....keep well anoo.
Cavan Man
(01/16/03; 20:03:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 94708)
sector
I disagree in part with that chap. European Central Bankers do have a choice in the matter. There will be pain but they have a decent contingency plan for that stormy day. I think it is beginning to rain......
R Powell
(01/16/03; 19:51:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 94707)
Cavan Man
Your (94693)...I believe you are. If it were free and easy, trying to get there would be no fun and offer no satisfaction. Besides, none of us will ever get all the way there. Where is it we're going, anyway?
sector
(01/16/03; 19:49:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 94706)
@CavenMan Not a Chance--They really are out 16,000 tonnes ----and----The Devaluation Thing in Japan
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20030117wo12.htm
...by combining "Forwards and Swaps including Gold" in a single column so I had to trace back up and extract the numbers. The guys at the G-10 are in deep do-do. They did all they could to hide the numbers. This is why nobody in the past noriced... they were too lazy to do the math.
Moreover, if there were something wrong with the 16,000 tonne figure the "Wood" types would have pounded me. No gloves yet a month and twelve days afterwards.
Recent gold price action ONLY fits a pattern of selling exhaustion and a future move to extremely higher levels.
-----------Yomiuri Online-----------
U.S. war on deflation threatens global economy
Jesper Koll Special to The Daily Yomiuri
Around the world, a growing number of economists are trying to forecast movements in financial markets on the basis of predictions about what will happen to economies. Unfortunately, much of this may be a waste of time. More often than not, the financial markets determine the future course of economies.
Given the dramatic decline in global stock markets and the relentless drop in interest rates during 2002, this should make economic forecasting for this year easy: The world economy may be headed toward a deflationary decompression. The good news is that central banks around the world are on to this and are beginning to mobilize for a fight against it. The prospects for a real fight are serious because the war is being led by the U.S. Federal Reserve--the very center of the global financial system.
On Nov. 21, Ben Bernanke, who was appointed to the U.S. Federal Reserve Board in August, made an extraordinary speech titled "Deflation--making sure it does not happen here." Bernanke made it very clear that the Fed would not hesitate to implement radical and unorthodox policy to ensure that "any deflation would be mild and brief."
Bernanke stated that the Fed would not hesitate to buy corporate bonds or make zero-rate loans to banks against corporate commercial paper collateral, in addition to being ready to buy foreign government debt.
These are important policy statements that mark a true regime shift. The U.S.-centered war against deflation is starting. Global central bankers will have no choice but to follow.
For Japan, the key implication could be negative. There is no historic precedent of an economy pulling out of deflation, however mild, without a currency depreciation. So the greater the risk of deflation in the United States, the harder it will be for Japan to prevent an appreciation of the yen. The coming U.S.-centered war against deflation may very well force a sharp acceleration in deflation in both Japan and Europe.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Here is the Japanese currency devaluation thingy all spelled out nice and pretty. The only remaining question is how many elders there will get to the bullion dealers before the tiny window of gold buying opportunity closes.
mdgc
(01/16/03; 19:49:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 94705)
Eagle One
http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/usgmonth.html
Thank you.
Lovely chart, exactly what I want. Is there a similar one for platinum?
Chris Powell
(01/16/03; 19:47:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 94704)
Vancouver conference to hear from GATA
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1389
GATA will be featured at the Vancouver Resource
Investment Conference Jan. 26-27.
To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:
gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Chris Powell
(01/16/03; 19:46:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 94703)
GATA love those coincidences
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1388
When gold soars $7, you GATA love those
coincidences:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1388
To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:
gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
R Powell
(01/16/03; 19:44:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 94702)
CoBra(too)
"...and who the hell cares..as Gold is Gold."
Perhaps anyone who desperately needs fiat for life's necessities and has to trade/sell/exchange/whatever gold for fiat. The amount of fiat might be a consideration.
Also, the buyer might care or, because it is gold does it make no difference whether $360/ounce or $3600/ounce is necessary to buy?
Monetary exchange...an unfortunate reality of life..
Rich
Cavan Man
(01/16/03; 19:41:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 94701)
@sector
sixteen (thousand) tons and whatd'ya get?
Any chance however remote you have drawn the wrong conclusion from the BIS data you referenced? Any chance the BIS is BSing? Respectfully (yet, sceptically)..CM
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 19:36:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 94700)
@ R Powell (01/16/03; 17:39:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 94689)
I don't know the answers to your questions. I don't mean to be impolite, but I do not usually become enduringly interested in such things, perhaps because they seem unrelated to reality as I perceive it. I have been told that I am odd in this regard, and also in other ways. But my experience has led me to believe that I am correct in my actions more often than other people are. And so I tentatively conclude that maybe my thinking is reacted to as though it were wierd, because it is new. My concern is more that what posters on this forum have recently said they believe has come about because of manipulation seems to me to be more accurately describable as having come about as a consequent of the ordinary day-to-day trading habits of thousands of speculator individuals. That is what I was attempting to explain. Today for instance, it seemed to me that I understood something that I had not comprehended before, about why POG does what it does. And just after I posted the reasons why I believed that gold would only go up, it went up. If my understanding is correct, I should be able to do it again. No insurance, but it's worth a try. The explanation that inspectors found evidence Iraq is not convincing for instance. I mean, when you heard they had found it, did you call your broker and buy stocks? No? Then why would anyone else? That explanation is given because the people giving the explanations haven't figured out the real reason. It was a coincidence, that's all.
sector
(01/16/03; 19:30:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 94699)
@R[ich]Powell Sorry Rich...if it were all fiat paper...
...then the central banks would still have half their gold--
--which they clearly do not. They have blown 16,000 tonnes in the financial scam of two centuries. All that gold really IS gone. Weltke wants more sales only so he can DELIVER his past sales bullion. The Bundesbank probably has no deeded metal at all in their vaults.
The miner sells a future delivery of un-mined gold. That qualifies as a specified gold asset. The jeweler hedges.--He has metal inventory to hedge against or he buys futures.
There can be no short derivative [Which is what we are talking about] established unless there first is a source of real metal. One cannot short an equity without borrowing it from someone else, one CAN buy calls with fiat easily.
But it has always been the gold shorts that have hammered the spot price down. Now that they are essentially out of metal to borrow the game is over..."Checkmate" as Reg Howe put it.
And I'll bring something else up. On the way down, the bullion bakers and hedger mines had the government central banks as allies. The government and the cbs were the enemy of the investor who was naive of the governmental intervention practice of selling metal to drop its price.
Now that we are on the other side of the valley, so to speak, the government will turn on their former allies and not sell as they did in the past. Every man for himself. You need a life-preserver gold loan Mr. hedger? Ask Bill McDonough...oooops! I just remembered, he just retired! Oh, well.
The new victims of government will be the hedged producers and certain intermediate-sized bullion banks who counted on perpetual help and who still are in disbelief that they are adrift in a cold gold rising sea as the USS Federal Reserve pulls away.
IF the govt were going to rescue these poor folks, they would have already done it.
Newcrest, Placer Dome, Barrick---Say goodbye to your former pals at the Fed and Treasury. And about JPM? well there's at least two suits that are going to be cuffed by the NY District Attorney's pretty soon. THEY may be singing a bit louder than normal.
Paper alone can't drop the spot price of gold. You must have metal to borrow and the big red metal boat just headed South.
EagleOne
(01/16/03; 19:20:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 94698)
mdgc
http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/usgmonth.html
This on goes back to 1974.
EagleOne
knotakare
(01/16/03; 18:50:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 94697)
Question on the US Strong Dollar Policy?
My conclusion of the aftermath of the "Policy" is that it has severly weakened the US banking system, and a collapse is very likely somtime down the road.
The gold leasing is the area where I have the question. Has anyone ever seen an explanation of why this leasing may not have destructive effects on the US economy; that it is benign in it's character, and only looks bad on the surface because Wall Street firms benefitted. That there is some policy measure or other plan to remedy it's ill effects?
To me the leasing looks like a conspiracy, to keep the good times rolling, but especially to benefi FED insiders such as the Bullion Banks. If the conspiracy results in a loss of national security, to me it doesn't matter whether that was the original intent or not. A resonable person would have seen that the gold would not be paid back, and then intuitively understand how this would harm our national economy and security.
I have come to these conclusions, but I want to make sure I am not missing something. Any comments are appreciated.
Chap X aka GOLDen Greek
(01/16/03; 18:50:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 94696)
Gandalf....
I second that emotion.....
Opps...that was Smokey R. & the Miracles....
mdgc
(01/16/03; 18:48:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 94695)
new highs
No one on this list can doubt that gold has really broken out. And that it is headed higher . . . a lot higher. We will differ on just how high gold will go, and how soon it will get there.
How high? My guess is we are going to $415, give or take a bit. How soon? Tomorrow, I wish. After all, it is a Friday. In any case, testing $420 will likely come soon, weeks, not months.
In February 1996 and January 1990 there were short lived spikes in the $410 to $420 range. There is no significant resistance before $420. Getting through $420 won't be easy, but that is another story.
The upward surge of gold in last few weeks has felt a little like the end of 1979. Gold has a buzz. Virtually all the TV stock-market talking-heads now mention the price of gold, some daily. The Funds must buy gold stocks for window dressing. Precious Metals Funds receive money rather than redeem like most other Funds. Can the water-cooler be far behind?
Platinum, too, is about to test earlier spikes, the most recent in $620/625 range in December 2000. K*tco's 20-year platinum chart shows a spike near 650 in the middle of 1987. The peak previous to 1987 is the fabled 1980.
Platinum closed today at $619 and is looking up. An breakout to 2 year highs would create a bit more metals buzz that would help gold.
Wishful thinking, perhaps. I cannot find daily or weekly data for 1987, at least on K*tco. Nor with Google.
Someone on this list must know where they might be found. Please point me there and data. Thanks in advance.
Can't wait for tomorrow.
TGIF
CoBra(too)
(01/16/03; 18:06:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 94694)
POG @ R. Powell
Well, Sir, that's rich.
Your question is definitely absurd! How can POG be higher or lower, as there is only one measure - Gold!
...and who the hell cares - as Gold is Gold!
Ha ;) cb2
Cavan Man
(01/16/03; 18:06:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 94693)
Rich
I'm still trying to figure out if I am smart enough to understand what the man is saying ;>)..
Gandalf the White
(01/16/03; 17:56:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 94692)
QUESTION to ALL !!! <;-)
IF I were to ask the Castle about ANOTHER POG contest, WOULD anyone "second" the Proposal ?
<;-)
R Powell
(01/16/03; 17:50:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 94691)
Cavan Man
I'm presently reading "Profitable Grain Trading", one of my Christmas presents but I'll put "Fooled By Randomness" on my list as the kids also gave dear, old dad a bookstore gift certificate.
I've read and greatly enjoyed "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" and know of the opposing theories. By the title I'll guess this is one opposing view, yes?
Reading..it does a brain good..
Thanks
Rich
P.S. Does anyone happen to know if the price of gold will be higher or lower tomorrow? TIA
ElGordo
(01/16/03; 17:47:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 94690)
JPM banksters to face criminal charges!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,5-546031,00.html
ROBERT MORGENTHAU, the Manhattan district attorney, is preparing to charge at least one banker from JP Morgan Chase amid allegations that trades organised by the group helped to conceal billions of dollars of debt at Enron, the bankrupt energy company.
Dozens of employees from the bank have appeared over recent months before a closed grand jury in New York to explain the trades, with dealings in gas supply contracts between Enron, JP Morgan and Mahonia, a Jersey-based company, the focus of the questions.
Sources close to the hearings told The Times last night, however, that the hearings, which have also involved staff of other Wall Street firms, are drawing to a close and that criminal charges "against a couple of JP Morgan people" are expected.
____________
Maybe we will learn more about their gold dealings?
R Powell
(01/16/03; 17:39:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 94689)
a nation of one
I read your (94603) a few times before basically agreeing but it seems that you may have then extrapolated this line of reasoning to decide that, since the market action looks normal, there is no excessive manipulation.
Along these lines, what if there was indeed, a strong dollar policy for most of the 1990s. Now, even if the PPT or others did not intentionally and specically target the gold market, but did promote a strong dollar policy through, perhaps, currency exchange markets, should this be considered gold market manipulation? If the strong dollar policy was effected intentionally, and POG was surpressed because of this policy, but the gold market itself was never influenced, was POG manipulated? Is there a link or connection between the dollar's strength/weakness and the POG?
I wonder if the puzzle might be further complicated as to whether there was/is intentional gold pricing mechanisms at work or whether the suppression on the POG was/is a secondary (though directly linked) effect?
If a antropologist finds a fireplace from eons ago, he might assume someone lit the fire to keep warm and/or cook. Maybe this was the fire's purpose but inadvertantly left behind some charcoal which empowered the earth's first great artists. Did the "keep warm and cook food" policy create art?
The strong dollar policy, whether intentional or not, surpressed the prices of most commodities (not only gold) for many years. Intentional or no?? I don't know!
Rich
Waverider
(01/16/03; 17:37:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 94688)
DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
More on Spot 'n Spikes diet...oh...and Streaks!
Cavan Man
(01/16/03; 17:33:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 94687)
R Powell
Have you read "Fooled By Randomness"? I think you'd enjoy it.
silvercollector
(01/16/03; 17:20:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 94686)
Trojan
...and the dollar seeing sub-101 !!!
R Powell
(01/16/03; 17:14:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 94685)
Playing the game with no backup
In (94656) Sector wrote...
"In order to establish a gold derivative in the first instance, one must necessarily have an original source of real metal from a specified inventory of bullion from which the bad guys "Borrow". Then and only then can the metal be sold into the COMEX LBMA or TOCOM etc.. This selling causes the price to fall unless there is a countervailing buyer group with similar financial committment."
This is not always the case. If a miner wants to "lock-in" a set price for future production he/she can sell a futures' contract. This is done to raise needed cash or if the mine management believe the metals' price will be lower at that future time. If a jewelry manufacturer wants to hedge the cost of physical metal bought and held on premises, they can sell futures. The danger is that if the price falls so that their competitor can buy metal at a lower price, then that competitor will then be able to sell a finished product for less. By hedging (selling the futures), the higher initial cost of metal is recovered.
Example: Starbucks buys 1000 tonnes of coffee at $1.00/pound and sells 1000 tonnes in futures at 1.00/pound.
Coffee prices fall to $0.50/pound.
Duncan Donuts buys 1000 tonnes at $0.50/pound and threatens to sell coffee cheaper than Starbucks.
Starbucks now buys back 1000 tonnes of coffee at the lower price of $0.50/pound. Sold at $1.00...bought back at $0.50 for a $0.50 profit which, when applied toward that $1.00/pound price, lowers their 1000 ton coffee purchase price to $0.50 or exactly the same as Duncan Donut paid! This is commercial hedging.
BUT
It is not always hedging that buys or sells in the market. There is an awful lot of speculative money that both buys and sells all commodities. They buy what they do not want and sell what they do not have! Gold derivatives are originated, offset, hedged, bought, sold, traded, etc. every day by people who do hold any of the physical, never have and never will.
Your statement applies (I believe) to the old gold-carry trade but not to Comex or any commodity exchange at present. I suspect that even some of the gold-carry trade was all done on paper with the gold never moved from its original storage cellar. It's almost all a fiat paper game.
Rich
Trojan
(01/16/03; 16:53:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 94684)
On The Menu For SPIKE and SPOT Was...
11 Empty Warheads, Compliments of Saddam.
SPOT loved it... :-)
Gandalf the White
(01/16/03; 16:47:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 94683)
WOWSERS !!! I need to know what SOMEONE fed SPIKE ?
Here I go out to take care of a small ORC problemo and when I return I find that SPIKE and SPOT went WILD just before 1:00 NY time ! WHO fed SPIKE and WHAT did you feed him ?
BTW .... THANKS !!!
<;-)
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(01/16/03; 16:23:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 94682)
What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/goldhelp.html
Q. I've noticed that USAGOLD / Centennial stresses education more than most of your competitors. Why is that?
MK. For years, we have emphasized "We educate first-time investors" in our advertising. We believe education to be the key to successful gold ownership. To make a long story short, we tend to keep our clientele as they become better educated, while many of our competitors tend to lose their clientele once they become educated. It shows in the type of services we consider important to complement our sales and delivery programs.
Randy interjects... Mike is way too nice to say this bluntly so I will. What I've noticed about the apparent rationale behind some of those other firms' operating philosophy is that, if they bend the client over far enough the first time, they really don't have to care about getting repeat business. Crude, yes, but there it is. It doesn't have to be that way, but some people simply don't take the time to shop around for a quality firm. They should.
Q. What are some of the criteria a prospective investor should look for in a gold firm?
MK. Credibility, longevity, pricing, service and compatibility -- all come into the mix. Of those I rate credibility and its sister virtues -- reliability and reputability -- the most important. Too many of the national firms have brokers who were selling condos at the beach or automobiles a month ago and now suddenly they've become "gold experts" selling leverage schemes, $50,000 rare coins, reproduction medallions at 25 times their gold content, or overpriced silver investments. Most sophisticated gold investors would probably like to avoid that sort of thing.
GoldnSilver2002
(01/16/03; 16:23:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 94681)
Gata and jim sinclair
Since we are goldbugs,whatever Gata and Jim sinclair say is ok with me.Why?Because we all want the same thing,gold to go up to its real value.Of course Jim Sinclair,much like others' such as the u.s media have influence over P.O.G.Gata does provide plenty of proof for anyone with a masters degree in economics and banking.Mr Sinclair may know basically what is happening in Gold,but even if he knew when gold would spike,he wouldnt tell.As for Gata,i wish them luck but i have come to realize why north america doesnt pick up on the gold story,north americans dont know what truth is anymore anyway.Now the question really becomes,will there be a short squeeze and when?The feast is here boys 'sharpen your knives.The pig is cooked'someone stick a golden knife in it and make sure its done all the way through!
admin
(01/16/03; 16:05:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 94680)
On subject
It's OK to talk about Iraq and North Korea, for example, but let's try to keep it within the context of the economy and gold.
admin
(01/16/03; 16:01:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 94679)
Stick to the Subject. . .
Let's stay on subject. This is a gold & economics forum. We're getting complaints.
Rock
(01/16/03; 15:59:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 94678)
Re: timbervision
You said, ". From what I have seen so far, 911 didn't occur because the FBI "ignored" warning signs, rather, it was a well orchestrated event, a high level conspiracy, from within an American power base."
Here's my take on it, yes it was a well orchestrated event but the FBI was advised that Arabic students had enrolled in American flight schools and it was thought they were training to crash passenger jets into the WTC. There was an actual reliable tip to the FBI that there was a plan to fly jumbo jets into the WTC.
Had I been running the FBI when I got the news that there were suspicious foreigners in American flight schools for the purpose of suicide missions I would have done a thorough back ground check on all the students and weeded out the illegal aliens first and foremost. But as you know all that wasn't done until after 911.
Christian
(01/16/03; 15:19:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 94677)
To seize private property for public consumption
The underlying manipulation affecting gold today is the yen interest rate. Yen interest rates are lower than gold lease rates. Japan is exporting its exporting industry to China, and the yen interest rate in China is a negative 4% + or -. It works as long as it is done on productive money making enterprises. Japan is an aging country, and have found a way to move nonproductive money losing USA assets into China. Japan lost an average of 11% on their holdings in the USA for the last two years. By helping Japanese companies get established in China with negative interest loans they make possible for future profits. Truth is they made 27% profit gain in two years on operations in China. Money goes were the possibility of profits are. The USA is sitting 25,000 tonnes of off balance sheet gold debt. LTCM went under with 400 tonnes, Enron went down with 103 tonnes, Kmart lost it with 72 tonnes. 30,000 tonnes of off balance sheet credit creation gold is traded on the OTC every year where no one knows what the he_l is going on. In every gold rally we had lately the gold shorters have increased their gold short position in order to sell physical gold into the market. There is no way to cover without entering the physical market and drive the very price up. It is only a matter of time all bank loans have to be called in. Everybody is going to get a notice that your loan due date has changed and the principal is due now. Banks are going to forclose on your property to bail themselves out of their gold short positions with your property in exchange for gold owed. The properties will then be sold at auctions to the highest bidder that have the new Euro based dollars. Everything is ready except the conditions for this to happen must be like it was in the darkest hour of the 30's. The Japanese have enough money to buy all the gold twice over and if they didn't they know where to get it. -- What realy supprises me is the Middle East has borrowed a lot of yen's and now have a large cash stash to buy gold with an interest cost of less then 1 %. I wish I could do that. I would be in heaven. If I went to the bank here to borrow money to buy gold, I may end up in prison. I went to a bank yesterday and asked if it was possible and I was shoved out the door. I was even told that they don't want my checking account there. Can't even borrow fiat to buy real money.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(01/16/03; 15:04:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 94676)
Gold is rising. Why gold? Why now? (Discover where and how to add gold to your portfolio...)
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutcpm.html
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market and gold will cross in the 2000 to 3000 area. Think about that
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1-800-869-5115We've been serving investors for three decades.
The assistance you want, the professionalism you need.
ElGordo
(1/16/03; 15:01:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 94675)
Russia to build Nuclear Plant for Syria
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1042490827214
Russia is in negotiations to build a nuclear power plant in Syria, risking damage to its tighter relationship forged with the west in recent months and triggering fresh concerns over the spread of nuclear weapons.
Moscow's ministry of atomic energy (Minatom) confirmed the discussions yesterday. It said Syria wanted the project and that Russia "in principle" could supply it, while stressing that an agreement was "not ready".
The development is likely to be a fresh source of irritation to the US. Washington has long been a critic of Russia's contract to build the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, which Russia is seeking to expand, as well as Russian agreements to build reactors in other countries. Gary Milhollin, director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control in Washington, said: "This is a relationship breaker between the US and Russia."
In an unclassified report released this month the US Central Intelligence Agency mentioned the existence of a "draft co-operative programme" between Russia and Syria on civil nuclear power. "In principle, broader access to Russian expertise provides opportunities for Syria to expand its indigenous capabilities, should it decide to pursue nuclear weapons," it said.
The details emerged after a day of confusion following a statement on the foreign ministry website that an agreement had been drafted under which Russia would build a nuclear power plant and an atomic desalination plant in Syria.
The ministry later removed the statement, issued to coincide with a two-day visit to Moscow by Abdel-Khalim Khaddam, the Syrian vice-president. Russia's President Vladimir Putin said yesterday that military-technical co-operation was a key element in the two countries' relations.
_______________
This will add to instabilty in the ME for sure.
ElGordo
(1/16/03; 14:41:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 94674)
Nuke shutdown
http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/nation/wire/sns-ap-nuclear-plant-fire0116jan16,0,3862099.story
Nuke Plant Fire Leads to Reactor Shutdown
By Associated Press
January 16, 2003, 3:12 PM EST
BRIDGMAN, Mich. -- A transformer fire at a nuclear plant injured a security officer and led to the automatic shutdown of one of the plant's two reactors.
The fire Wednesday night at the Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant in southwest Michigan also resulted in a brief activation of the site's emergency plan, the plant's owner, American Electric Power Co., said in a news release.
A security officer was treated for smoke inhalation.
The transformer, which is outdoors and adjacent to the plant, is used to increase the voltage of the plant's generator for more efficient long-distance transmission of electricity.
When the transformer failed, the plant's operating system automatically shut down the Unit 1 reactor, which was operating at full power. All safety systems responded appropriately, and the reactor was not damaged, AEP said.
The plant's fire brigade extinguished the fire in 35 minutes, and the plant notified the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and state and local emergency-response agencies, AEP said.
The fire's cause remained under investigation.
____________
In UK protesters invade nuke plant and several other stories
about nuke plants in Eastern Europe. UK finds Nuke company
dumped waste in north sea. This will increase demand for
use of oil and gas just when prices are high.
a nation of one
(1/16/03; 14:26:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 94671)
mistakes, mistakes
My figures are not exactly correct? This is because, rather than try and be really correct, I decided to try and fit in with the way everybody else does things. Though less correct, it's easier, and more popular too.
silvergolong
(1/16/03; 14:25:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 94670)
Iraq and North Korea
http://www.dieoff.org
Boy isn't it funny how NK and Iraq are all over the news-- and all over this message board.
I tend to view the situation within the borders of North Korea and Iraq as a "preview of coming attractions" for the rest of the world. North Korea has no oil or sources of energy, is desperately poor, and must rely on human slave labor. Iraq has vast oil reserves but can't monetize them effectively thanks to sanctions brought down on a reckless, ruthless, self-centered dictator.
When the planet's accessible oil supplies start to run out, we're gonna be just like these two countries--not enough oil above ground, and whatever oil is left in the ground will require so much energy to extract that it won't be worth it given the demands on the above-ground stocks to feed and heat the population.
Obsessing about Kim Jong Il and Saddam Hussein will only guarantee that the rest of the world will eventually be run according to their example. We need to start putting our own house in order, and we don't have much time left to do it.
2 Corinthians 6
17 Wherefore come out from among them, and be ye separate, saith the Lord, and touch not the unclean thing; and I will receive you.
Calidor
(1/16/03; 14:23:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 94669)
North Korean atrocities...
...... Oh great! Just when I thought SH had a lock on Humanitarian of the Year, Kim Jong Il throws his hat into the ring.
Seriously though Sierra, this was reported back in '98-'99 but hey, Clinton thought he could send a ten thousand tons of grain and everything would be copasetic. And because I don't have "eyes on" to report first hand, I can't verify a thing. But if I hear it from enough independent sources (and over time), I begin to give some credence to the story.
Did NBC time the story to generate readership or increase viewers? Wouldn't surprise me one bit.
"Did NBC tell the truth about the recent stock market bubble in process?" No. Agreed. But I don't see the relationship between spinning the lousy SM (or tell the truth and dump on your advertisers and parent company) and lying about a dictator who has chemical weapons and most likely has a nuclear capability. Why would the govt want to piss this guy off any more than he is? It's not like we're set up for 2 MRCs anyway.
People who have never been in the military need to realize that MOST soldiers (sailors, airmen, and marines) aren't particularly fond of warfare. Service members usually have spouses, families, parents, and/or siblings so they're in no rush to wind up on the business end of the enemy's weapon.
If the N Korean labor camps turn out to be a ruse perpetrated by the US government, then I'll owe you an apology. But until that time .......
More gold please !
a nation of one
(1/16/03; 14:22:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 94668)
@ Sierra
I think you are right about this. To short a contract of gold (100 ounce or 1,000 ounces, depending on the contract), all one has to do is plunk down the margin ($1,350 or $13,500 (I think that's right.)). You agreed to deliver the gold or pay the difference. Then, if POG goes up, you pay the other party the difference. Say, if you contracted at 500 and it went to 550, you would pay the other party 50 times 100 ($5,000), or times 1,000 ($50,000). In the meantime though you would have the potential benefit of the entire worth of the contract, 100 ounces or 1,000 ounces of gold, and if gold went up, you would benefit. It's a bet. People do it for sport. If you have ten million to fool around with, in addition to the couple of hundred million net which you are actually worth, then a couple of hundred contracts would be nothing. And fifty thousand would be no more than the cost of your fun.
Plus, it could be deductable under some circumstances. It could be a business expense, if your business is gold. You only lose big if the other party to the contract demands that you deliver the gold, because then he would send you the money that he originally agreed to pay for the gold, and you would have to send him the actual gold. That could get expensive. 100 ounces at $500 would be $50,000, whereas the loss due to mere speculation (if he doesn't demand the gold) was only $1,300, plus the difference ($5,000, if it went to $550). But if you did 1,000 ounces, then the gold would cost $500,000, and you would also lose the original $13,500 which the contract cost you. This would be more significant. And if you had a couple of dozen 1,000 ounce contracts sold short and had to buy all those dozens of thousands of ounces of beautiful gold, your wife would probably yell. And once burned, twice shy. Next time you'd be more careful. Might not sell short any more. Gold would go up.
Sierra Madre
(01/16/03; 14:08:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 94667)
Sector: you wrote
"In order to establish a gold derivative in the first instance, one must necessarily have an original source of real metal from a specified inventory of bullion from which the bad guys "Borrow". Then and only then can the metal be sold into the COMEX LBMA or TOCOM etc.. This selling causes the price to fall unless there is a countervailing buyer group with similar financial committment."
Hmmm...just a minute, please.
I think you have made a mistake here.
What about the massive short positions in the Comex silver contracts, which so upset Theodore Butler? He has been hammering on this subject for years, to no avail: the massive shorts are only a handful, yet they are short over a year of known silver production; here I may have the figures wrong - but the bottom line, is that these shorts can BY NO MEANS have the silver to sell, which they are shorting aggresively. Butler says what is going on is illegal, but the supervising entities turn a blind eye - it figures.
So what will destroy these shorts, like the gold shorts, up to and including the U.S. government, is PEOPLE TAKING PHYSICAL POSSESSION OF THEIR METAL, and not relying on simple trading, which (almost) invariably produces losses for the longs, as the shorts have deep (green dollar) pockets with which they can short. However, if people all over the world are taking their gold home and off the market, that cannot be countered by masses of paper dollars.
Buy gold and take possession is the nemesis of the gold manipulators. And - it's happening!! That's what is raising the price.
That's the way I see it, anyway.
Sierra
ElGordo
(01/16/03; 14:04:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 94666)
Small official?
Or maybe a large box? lol
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 13:54:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 94665)
???
How did he get that Iraqi official into the box, if it was already stuffed with documents?
ElGordo
(01/16/03; 13:50:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 94664)
UN inspectors find something?
http://www.canada.com/news/story.asp?id=8CC94D83-2C36-4953-B434-3721131DB776
BAGHDAD (AP) - An Iraqi scientist left his home Thursday with UN experts and accompanied them to a field outside Baghdad where together they inspected what appeared to be a man-made mound in the earth.
The events - unprecedented since inspectors in Iraq resumed their search for banned nuclear, chemical and biological weapons in November - came after the UN experts, going through documents outside the scientist's house, appeared to have a heated discussion with Iraqi liaison officials. "I'm not happy about all of this," Dimitri Perricos, a team leader among the UN experts, could be heard telling the Iraqis as he got into a vehicle with the scientist - physicist Faleh Hassan, who carried a box stuffed with documents - and an Iraqi official.
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 13:47:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 94663)
moreover,
Greenspan is not particularly knowledgeable. He has an agenda and follows it. Other dynamics which are involved he is unaware of. His verbal expressions are very skillful stated, but, unfortunately, their content is lacking.
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 13:42:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 94662)
Trojan
I think that's backwards. The FED, and also the federal government, realize that gold is simply going to be recognized by everyone as being worth more dollars than it is now, and that, given this probability, it makes no sense to do anything to lower it. I am not that impressed by Jim Sinclair. He is good at what he does, but what he does is being outmoded.
Trojan
(01/16/03; 13:31:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 94661)
@ a nation of one
The US and the FEED might NOT want the POG to stay down anymore.
After Greenspan's last public speech in which he started it off by talking about Gold. There were several very Knowledgeable Gold Experts like Sinclair and others that suggested that.
You could read some of those Articles if you are interested. If you are, let me know and I'll find a link or two for you. Or perhaps someone knows of a link now Re: The Gold Cover Clause Scenario
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 13:31:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 94660)
@ Sector
"...The fact that they are running short of real metal is the reason that gold is rising. More and more buyers are attracted of course, but the cessation of central bank selling is the driver upwards."
--Ninety nine percent of the current gold market has nothing to do with physical gold but is based on paper contracts. Therefore, 99% of the current perception of gold's value is not availability or lack of availability but the public's perception of how valuable gold is. This is not based on availability but on the relationship between the available currency and the notion concerning gold's value. Gold's price is most forcefully determined in U.S. markets. Since the price of gold in U.S. markets is based mostly on paper contracts, it is the paper contracts that most influence the price of gold.
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 13:24:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 94659)
my limited understanding
The price of gold is not determined by central banks, except in the transactions in which they individually engage, and even these prices are profoundly influenced by the going rate current on open markets. Fewer than one percent of the physical gold referred to in the total of all futures contracts is ever delivered. That is what constitutes the open market. That should mean that it is the paper contracts, not the physical gold itself, that has the greatest influence in establishing the price. Please prove that I am wrong about this.
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 13:18:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 94658)
@ Sector, with all due respect
...that the government needs more than just paper money to keep gold below $350.
They don't even need paper money. They could do it just with paper contracts.
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 13:15:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 94657)
action
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s&w=5&t=c&a=2
What we saw today was that sellers exhausted their intentions. The smart speculators waited until the moving averaqe turned up, then they bought. When POG responded by going higher, was followed by selling but did not decline significantly, that was a strong upward indicator, then the moving average quickly continued up, and then additional buying occurred, selling then followed, POG did not decline significantly, so additional buying was done, and POG went up further, and that is where we are now. Tomorrow, if selling occurs and POG doesn't go down significantly, additional buying will be done. It may be that since significant selling did occur during previous substantial gains, it may now be more greatly exhausted and, if so, substantial selling won't occur this time. If so, POG will go up unimpeded.
sector
(01/16/03; 13:07:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 94656)
@ a nation of one "How could it be more clearly manifested that the government is not significantly manipulating the price of gold, than that they have all those hundreds of billions of somebody else's dollars and still haven't been able to make gold stay below 350?"
The Simplest answer to this logical question is...
...that the government needs more than just paper money to keep gold below $350.
The crucial thing to appreciate is that the government needs gold to drop the price of gold. They cannot simply take paper money and sell gold downward.
In order to establish a gold derivative in the first instance, one must necessarily have an original source of real metal from a specified inventory of bullion from which the bad guys "Borrow". Then and only then can the metal be sold into the COMEX LBMA or TOCOM etc.. This selling causes the price to fall unless there is a countervailing buyer group with similar financial committment.
The fact that they are running short of real metal is the reason that gold is rising. More and more buyers are attracted of course, but the cessation of central bank selling is the driver upwards.
ElGordo
(01/16/03; 12:56:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 94655)
CRB up again
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_CRY0&v=d12
Nat Gas up another 4%+
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 12:54:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 94654)
Ockham
Davefinger, thanks. Often, the man who states a principle clearly and with the greatest conciseness gets the credit for it. At least until someone else comes along whose language is more modern.
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 12:47:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 94653)
@ @
Sierra, if my thinking is muddled, you would do me and everyone else a favor by showing specifically in what ways it is muddled. I began my long paragraph with that request.
ElGordo
(01/16/03; 12:45:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 94652)
"In war, truth is the first casualty"-Churchill
One of my favs-
Its not a question of believing what a guv says-
propaganda reveals intentions.
davefinger
(01/16/03; 12:43:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 94651)
The Razor
I thought the Latin version was quite different, and so looked it up on Google. This came as a surprise:
"I wonder how a mid-fourteenth-century Franciscan monk would have felt if he had known that late-twentieth-century magazine readers would vote to give him some aftershave as a Christmas present.
Last Christmas, New Scientist readers came up with suggestions for gifts to famous individuals. Some rubber ducks for Archimedes. A set of dice for Einstein. Protective headgear and a cider press for Newton. The address of a good patent lawyer for Leonardo da Vinci. A cat flap for Schrodinger. A bigger notebook for Fermat.
The aftershave, as you may have guessed, was for William of Occam. The village of Occam, where he was born, was in the southern English county of Surrey; it still is-only a mile or two off the orbital freeway that rings London.
If you come across his name these days, it's likely to be as part of the term Occam's Razor: "Entities should not be multiplied without necessity." To persuade you of its authenticity, the statement often drags in tow the original Latin formulation: "Entia non sunt multiplicanda sine necessitate." But if you bump into it again, you might find it presented as "Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem." Yes, you spotted the catch-how can there be two different authentic versions? In fact, there are not two. There isn't even one. The statement appears nowhere among his extant writings, even though he would probably have agreed with the gist of it.
It was not new. Robert Grosseteste, a chancellor of William's own university (Oxford) had written: "That is better and more valuable which requires fewer, other circumstance being equal; which necessitates the answering of a smaller number of questions for a perfect demonstration.... As Aristotle says in Book V of the Physics, "Nature operates in the shortest way possible." And the Franciscans in general leaned heavily on the principle."
---
There's more, but that's the drift...
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 12:37:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 94650)
@ you know who
Yeah, well brevity is the mark, Sierra, not of wisdom, but of wit.
ElGordo
(01/16/03; 12:33:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 94649)
Spot nat gas at 22 month peak
http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030116/markets_natgas_spot_1.html
EIA storage data released Thursday showed U.S. gas stocks
fell last week by 136 bcf, well above Reuters survey estimates
for a 105-110 bcf draw and the five-year average decline for
this week of 119 bcf but below the year-ago drop of 142 bcf.
The report showed total U.S. gas stocks stood at 2.195 tcf,
widening the deficit to last year to 453 bcf, or 17 percent,
and to 18 bcf below the five year average.
Eastern stocks dropped 85 bcf last week and were 18 percent
below last year. Consuming Region West storage, which lost 13
bcf for the week, was 4 percent below year-ago levels.
Inventories in the producing region tumbled 38 bcf and stood 22
percent below 2001 levels.
Hipplebeck
(01/16/03; 12:19:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 94648)
Trojan- Venezuela
http://www.vheadline.com/main.asp
I try to understand the news by looking at both sides. Since I am inundated constantly by the US media viewpoint of things, I seek out the opposite viewpoint so I can try to understand their side too. The above site is pro Chavez.
another pro Chavez place for Venezuela news is narconews.com
Sierra Madre
(01/16/03; 12:18:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 94647)
@A nation of one, re post #94603
Another famous saying of Ockham's was
"Parafus longus dubitandum est".
This translates: "long paragraphs are a sign of muddled thinking."
Buy gold, at any price.
Sierra
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 12:12:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 94646)
Rock
Your idea might be right. But if it is, it would be safer not to state it publicly.
As for how your posts smell, well they are far enough away not to be offensive. And even dogs, you know, understand that a smell can't hurt anyone.
Trojan
(01/16/03; 12:12:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 94645)
@ a nation of one, Hipplebeck and Breaking NEW News
Once the Truth starts getting out and the Chinese, Japanese, Malaysia, India and others KNOW.
It doesn't matter. The US Dollar is below 101 Spot and the US Government exactly as your point was WILL NOT Short Gold or sell it when they KNOW it is going Over $400 +
Hipplebeck, Thanks for the laugh Re: Ashtrays.
Late Breaking News:
12 War Heads found NOT on Iraq's Declaration List.
Hipplebeck
(01/16/03; 12:09:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 94644)
JPM
maybe they were short gold, but being in the derivatives business, they just hedged it all, and began taking the long side. With unlimited credit, you can probably turn on a dime.
ElGordo
(01/16/03; 12:09:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 94643)
CNN now reporting warheads not in initial report
Warheads that were found were NOT accounted for
in the initial weapons report. Developing...
Sierra Madre
(01/16/03; 12:08:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 94642)
North Korean atrocities...
What NBC reports might be true, but then again, it MIGHT NOT.
Reporting on the "atrocities" of the enemy is standard psy-war procedure for manipulating public opinion. Did NBC tell the truth about the recent stock market bubble in process? No. They are "official spokesmen" and they will report what they are told to report. I do believe that!
Before and during WWI, the American people were told that German soldiers had cheerfully impaled Belgian babies on their bayonets. All lies, as later disclosed. We never learn to distrust, we believe what we see on the TV and read in the papers. Such is life.
A grain of salt is in order, with regard to N Korea. At least for thinking humans.
Sierra
ElGordo
(01/16/03; 12:04:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 94641)
Wall Street upgrading Gold
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?guid=%7BB2E651F6-C85F-4A3A-B76F-FEA9D3B78704%7D&siteid=myyahoo&dist=myyahoo
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- How important is Wall Street's fresh round of upgrades for the gold industry?
To many longtime gold investors, Wall Street's embracing of the metal, which in 2002 rose about $66 an ounce, or 24 percent, is par for the course: a sign that sales-driven analysts are late to the profits in any market rally.
Still, even the most cynical of observers acknowledges the importance of professional support for a metal that Main Street investors mostly shunned during the most recent boom years.
This week, Wall Street and London banks upgraded their gold price forecasts and their ratings on several mining stocks. All see higher prices for the metal, which is attempting to surpass $360 an ounce for the first time since early 1997. See: Gold gets respect on Wall Street.
"These reports are good trend indicators, but they are lagging indicators -- not coincidental ones," says James Turk, editor of Freemarket Gold and Money Report. "It indicates that the trend is well enough established for them to consider changing their estimates."
Hipplebeck
(01/16/03; 12:00:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 94640)
If I was Saddam
and they were pressuring me for these things that are unaccounted for from the last inspections (like warheads), I would slip them into existing stocks here and there so they could be found. Then they could be accounted for.
This ammo dump is one that has been searched twice before.
Knallgold
(01/16/03; 12:00:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 94639)
POG almost at 360
Do I hear the steps of FOA coming back??
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 11:59:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 94638)
gub mint agin
How could it be more clearly manifested that the government is not significantly manipulating the price of gold, than that they have all those hundreds of billions of somebody else's dollars and still haven't been able to make gold stay below 350?
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 11:53:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 94637)
@ Trojan (01/16/03; 11:37:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 94629)
Yes, I have been to the GATA site. But the fact that a lawsuit is filed is not evidence of wrongdoing.
I have read Gibson's Paradox and posted an item on this forum detailing why it cannot be correct.
I have not read the Howe Report. I will put that on my schedule to begin this evening.
With regard to your "YESSSSSSSSSSS!" I agree.
ElGordo
(01/16/03; 11:52:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 94636)
Warheads in excellent condition
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=EC3OCTSUHU0HGCRBAEOCFEY?type=topNews&storyID=2058619
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - U.N. weapons inspectors in Iraq on Thursday found empty warheads designed to carry chemical warfare agents, a U.N. spokesman said in Baghdad.
It was not immediately clear whether the warheads had ever contained banned chemicals and samples were taken for testing.
The United States, which is massing forces in the Gulf, has made clear it is ready to invade if the inspectors find Iraq has lied in assuring the United Nations that it no longer possesses chemical, biological or nuclear weaponry.
U.N. spokesman Hiro Ueki did not expand on the significance of the find during an inspection of the Ukhaider Ammunition Storage Area, which lies 120 km (75 miles) south of Baghdad.
"During the course of their inspection, the team discovered 11 empty 122 mm chemical warheads and one warhead that requires further evaluation," he said in a statement. The team had gone there to view a large group of bunkers built in the late 1990s.
"The warheads were in excellent condition and were similar to ones imported by Iraq during the late 1980s. The team used portable X-ray equipment to conduct preliminary analysis of one of the warheads and collected samples for chemical testing."
There was no immediate comment from Iraqi officials.
Hipplebeck
(01/16/03; 11:52:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 94635)
Empty warheads.
The ammo dump guards were probably using them for ashtrays.
This isn't the trigger, but it's coming.
Can you feel the tension?
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 11:48:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 94634)
reflection
Zhisheng, I am wrong a lot. But not always. For instance, I am presently very heavily invested in gold.
Zhisheng
(01/16/03; 11:47:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 94633)
@Hipplebeck (#94630)
Me too!
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 11:45:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 94632)
ockham's razor
"The key here is to appreciate that there is rising volume within this tight trading range. The sellers have to sell more and more just to stay flat here at $354. This effort has a natural limit on the near time horizon. They run out of available gold or fall well below some pre-set gold selling level--their fall rate gets out of hand. They most certainly have a long-term plan that supports the paper and lets gold rise. It would be foolish to spend all their gold at this low price."
--This more difficult than it needs to be. There is a scientific principle that can be applied. It is called 'Ockham's Razor.' It is a substantially reliable indicator of when something is real. In Latin: "pluralites non est ponenda sine necessitate." A translation: "multiplicity ought not to be posited without necessity." In other words, one need not be complicated in one's thinking. An extraplolation of this would be, "If one's thought are exceedingly complicated, they probably are not true." If we cannot deliberately apply well-known scientific principles to our everyday thought and actions we are not very far along in our development.
Zhisheng
(01/16/03; 11:43:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 94631)
a nation of one
Sorry again: should be been "breach", not "breech" (#94627). You're right about the price of gold, and that I should use a spell checker.
But I dare say you over-estimate the Government.
Hipplebeck
(01/16/03; 11:38:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 94630)
Zhisheng
Thank you for the alternate ways of understanding Lao Tzu and the clarification of the era.
He is one of my heroes.
I wish I could read in the wen yen wen.
Trojan
(01/16/03; 11:37:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 94629)
@ a nation of one
Have you been to the GATA Site ?
Have you Read Gibson's Paradox ?
Have you read the Howe Report ?
Lot's of HARD FACTS there if you care to read them.
See GATA's Posts late last night for links.
Current data
Latest price 357.85 Last update 18:32 16/01 Change since last close +7.10 (+2.02%)
BidOfferPrice357.25 358.15 Time18:32 18:32 Volume--
Company data
Sector -Local ID -Currency US Dollar Security type Index Sector -
16/01 15/01 Today's open350.55 351.40 Today's high359.01 353.50 Today's low350.40 350.52 Spot rate--Latest price357.85 350.75 Change since last close+7.10 (+2.02%) -0.60 (-0.17%)
YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS :-)
Mr Gresham
(01/16/03; 11:37:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 94628)
Dollar's fallen and can't get up
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0
Headed for 100?
Should we start looking for Another's 360 return?
It would be an interesting note upon our development as observers to see what level of new observations A/FOA would bring to us now, and to what extent the gold community has done its homework and has attained many of the levels described almost alone by those two in former years. To be confirmed, of course, only in central bankers' memoirs 20 years from now. Meanwhile, POG tells much, if not all...
Zhisheng
(01/16/03; 11:35:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 94627)
Dollar.
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s
Looks like it may be that the Dollar Index 101 support level has been breeched too.
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 11:32:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 94626)
the gubmint
The notion that the Federal government is manipulating the POG is ludicrous. At least it seems so to me. At first, when I started reading that they are, I thought, "how interesting. That explains everything." But reality doesn't seem to be in agreement with this. Only an idiot would keep selling and selling into a rising market. Even our government isn't that stupid. Or I hope not. But instead of merely spouting plausible explanations, let's see some real evidence. That's what is lacking. There is no authentic evidence for such rumors. It all consists of supposition. And while suppositions can sometimes be true, usually they are not, and when they are, they are typically accompanied by real facts tending to corroborate them. Let's see some of those facts, other than merely the mysterious gyrations of somebody's scribblings onto charts.
Zhisheng
(01/16/03; 11:31:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 94625)
$356.50 has been broken.
Let the risk avoidance buy programs roll!
ElGordo
(01/16/03; 11:30:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 94624)
CNN report Iraq chemical weapon shells found
Empty chemical weapons shells found-breaking now
Mr Gresham
(01/16/03; 11:28:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 94623)
Amen, GfG!
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDOhttp://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO
We got us a gusher!
timbervision
(01/16/03; 11:25:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 94622)
Rock
You said: "Haven't we learned anything from 911? Isn't waiting for a smoking gun the very thing that brought down the trade centers?"
I don't see how you can conclude that "waiting for the smoking gun" was what brought down the Trade Centers. There has never been a mainstream media investigation into 911. From what I have seen so far, 911 didn't occur because the FBI "ignored" warning signs, rather, it was a well orchestrated event, a high level conspiracy, from within an American power base. Until we have real answers to 911, nothing coming from the Bush administration can be evaluated properly, or believed.
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 11:25:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 94621)
the elliots
What wrecks the elliot wavers is that their theory is simply wrong. It doesn't work. It never did. You can be sure of this by the fact that whenever it doesn't jibe with reality, the elioteers invent extremely complicated reasons why not. It is like the ancient astronomers who believe the earth was the center of the universe: their explanations for why the planets moved backwards and forward became ridiculously complex. Then Copernicus explained that the the planets orbit the sun. After that, everything was simple again. The ellioteers are rowing a boat that sunk the moment it was launched, and they haven't got the sense to realize they are just sitting on the bottom. "Why isn't the shore moving," someone asks, as they paddle ignorantly along. "Why it's because everything is in harmony with our boat," they reply.
CoBra(too)
(01/16/03; 11:18:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 94620)
Spot - Looks like a Triple Spike into the Close!
Won't be the greatest of nights for some of the SHORTS at tomorrows expiration.
My sympathy is kind'a subdued, though! cb2
mikal
(01/16/03; 11:18:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 94619)
@Rock
Your posts smell from one end to the other.
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 11:18:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 94618)
trojan
I don't see how JPM can be short now. For one thing, they have publicly stated that they are not short, that they have no liability in gold. Second, if they wanted POG to go down, it would go down. Third, it makes no sense to throw good money after bad. Having once sold tons of contracts short, at some point they would have to stop. If they wanted POG to fall, they would be able to make it fall a lot. But it hasn't. Therefore, that's not their intention. Think about this a little. If you or I had billions of dollars, would we do what JPM is being accused of? I don't think so. Myself, I would never have gotten started doing it. And but now, if I had, I would have gotten out. I just don't believe that the several dozen people at JPM who are involved in these things know less than I do.
sector
(01/16/03; 11:18:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 94617)
@ Trojan The "Link" is only a statement. Check http://www.bis.org
@a nation of one Your aren't exactly wrong but...
"The smart money is buying, not selling. You can be sure of this because it is the dumb money that is selling whenever there is the slightest reason, while the buyers are waiting patiently in the wings, biding their time, and their great gobs of beautiful green money, until the buyers have exhausted themselves, then they step in with force and the price jumps up."
There are THREE parties in precious metals trading. (1) The smart buyers (2) The dumb [Skittish] sellers and (3) The government. This three party trade is what wrecks the Elliott wave techies. Their whole thesis is based upon a two-party greed and fear premise. That doesn't work with PMs.
The .gov boys have a conflict of interest with the existence of a "Free" precious metals market since their paper is in competition with metal. They don't want gold or silver to "Go up" because if they do, then people will want metal instead of paper because the paper would be "Going down" and who would want that?
The ceiling maintenance pattern [Currently at $354] reflects the added selling of government to hold a defined price level [Or to perhaps give the impression that a specified level is being defended]. The higher lows show added buying to obtain gold on every pullback. This is classic currency defense pattern trading. It happens each time a country gets into trouble with their macro economy and sees their currency fall and intervenes to prop it up by buying their own currency with foreign exchange they had on hand.
The key here is to appreciate that there is rising volume within this tight trading range. The sellers have to sell more and more just to stay flat here at $354. This effort has a natural limit on the near time horizon. They run out of available gold or fall well below some pre-set gold selling level--their fall rate gets out of hand. They most certainly have a long-term plan that supports the paper and lets gold rise. It would be foolish to spend all their gold at this low price.
The clear picture is one of central bank selling to hold gold down as the only meaningful force acting downward on the market today. The savvy buyers are all-too-content to wait and suck the cb vaults dry at these absurdly low prices. But wait...
There are more and more buyers coming to the golden window to draw their share so thus the higher lows, higher volumes and the vault drainage increases and soon the gold-selling cartel retreats and falls back to another level.
Maybe that level is $400…but for how long?
jlfletc
(01/16/03; 11:17:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 94616)
(No Subject)
"Skyrockets in flight, afternoon delight........afternoon delight"!
Trojan
(01/16/03; 11:16:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 94615)
Way To Go, a nation of one
Spot now $358.12 :-)
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 11:12:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 94614)
spot
Looks like I called this one correctly.
Trojan
(01/16/03; 11:12:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 94613)
@ CM , Rock and a nation of one
Thank you, CM for pointing that out to me. I am relatively new to this Forum.
a nation of one, what you say is basically correct about the Gold Market Place BUT the Malipulation happened in great part in the past Re: Gold under $300. About JPM, that's the point. They are short probably so they now have to Buy, not sell.
Rock, you can be sure that the only reason GWB hasn't attacked yet is because his TRoops are NOT in place yet. As for Saddam being an immediate threat ? What has he threatened in the last 12 Years.
No Proven ties to Terrorism
Does anyone still Remember Bin Laden and Omar ?
Bush can't seem to catch him so let's focus on Saddam
Meanwhile BACK at the ranch, I saw at 1:00 PM EST Spot Gold at $355.50 and by the time I post this maybe $356 GO Gold... Buy JPM Buy ... Better now than at $400.
Only $10 Million Risk Sure :-)
Zhisheng
(01/16/03; 11:10:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 94612)
This may be The Day!
Spot is $358.31 as I post.
GratefulForGold
(01/16/03; 11:06:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 94611)
WAKE UP CALL - POG SPIKING!!
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1
A couple of minutes ahead of CNBC's report that empty chemical warheads found in Iraq. Hmmmm.
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 10:58:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 94610)
I've had my say.
So now I'll have my lunch.
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 10:57:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 94609)
sorry...,
I wasn't intending to dominate the scenery.
CM
(01/16/03; 10:54:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 94608)
Re: Trojan #: 94600
Pardon me for butting in. From past experience, it's not meant to be a link. It's just a way to underline some text.
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 10:48:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 94607)
tension
I thought tension was desired. If not, then the U.S. should stop poking them with its stick.
silvercollector
(01/16/03; 10:46:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 94606)
Headline News...
...Hans Blix tells EU that the Iraq situation is 'very tense'.
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 10:46:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 94605)
...
Thanks.
Zhisheng
(01/16/03; 10:41:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 94604)
A Nation of One
Sorry about that: it should have been R. B. Blakney, not Blakely. If you run a search under Blakney in Amazon, you should find it under the title
The Way of Life
Lao Tzu
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 10:37:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 94603)
gold
Someone please point out to me the error of my thinking here. The following is what seems to me to be true. POG has been making higher highs and higher lows for weeks. Selling has increased near the uppermost range. It has then consistently diminished and been replaced by strong buying. This has happened four times since gold first went above 340. I don't think this is consistent with manipulation. It is more consistent with a phenomenon characteristic of present tactics of market trading. Holders of physical gold do not typically buy and sell on an immediate basis whenever there is a change in the price of gold. They tend to hold on for a long time and then sell. But they are not the ones who determine what the price of gold is. The price is in reality determined by the traders on the floors of the commodity exchanges as a function of buy orders and sell orders transmitted to them by futures contracts speculators, through brokers who have them as customers. A significant number of these customers -when thought of in terms of large numbers of them- do buy and sell frequently and immediately on small changes in the indicators that they follow as individuals. Their action combines to form a trend, or a group habit of trading, which results in a pattern that can be seen in the way that POG behaves from hour to hour, when configured as a chart. Many of these commodity futures contracts speculators buy whenever they think POG is lower than it is going to be. And probably a smaller number of them sell short whenever they think that the POG is higher than it is going to be. A significant number of the long speculators sell immediately whenever gold has gone up, and a significant number of shorters sell short at around that same time. When this is done in terms of a sufficiently large number of contracts, it causes the price to move. Selling makes the thing go down. Buying makes it go up. If you look at the six month chart on gold, you can see that it doesn't merely go up all the way to the top from where ever it was while near some bottom, but it shoots up when selling has been exhausted, and then it stops when sellers perceive that there is a strong probability that a profit can be made by selling. Then it stops going up and starts wavering. At this point, selling and buying occur in a way the causes the POG to waver, going neither decidedly up, nor decidedly down. These individuals are not fighting. They are all merely doing what each one of them thinks is in his best financial interest. Right now we can see -barring unforeseen contingencies- that buyers have been repeatedly waiting for selling to diminish, then have been moving in and buying. The trend has been strong, because a lot of aware people know that gold looks very favorable. That's all. It is the ordinary, day-to-day trading habits of a significant proportion of contract traders wanting to make a quick profit that contritubtes to this manipulation-appearing pattern, not manipulators such as JPM Chase or the FED, though perhaps they could, and though they certainly possess the power to do so, and although they might contribute to the effects. The motivation for these frequent trades by individual futures contract speculators is due in significant part to the desires of these customers' brokers, who make no commissions unless buyers sell and sellers buy, and who do everything possible to encourage their customers to buy as often as they can, and to sell whenever they can make a profit. This results in the loss of a great deal of money, however, for the customers, though not for the brokers, since, when a speculator sells, the likelihood of his being out of the market at a time when greater profits could have been made if he had stayed in is increased, and because, often, it is necessary to buy back in after having sold, at a price that is higher than the one the customer sold at, meaning that, when the price goes beyond that, the customer has missed out on the difference. In addition to this, the customer has paid commissions and fees, both to sell, and to buy again, which substantially eats away at the amount in his account, and puts cash into the pockets of his broker. Smart contract speculators tend, therefore, to ignore their broker's advice, and also ignore intermediate moves in the POG and hold longer term contracts and not sell to make quick profits but, on dips, buy more, as appropriate. There are some who do make a lot of money trading frequently. This is not to be denied. But it is true that if they were to revise their tactic to that which is described here, they would make more. As concerns what gold is preparing to do next, here's an opinion. It's just an opinion. With higher highs and higher lows, four times, and with selling occurring actively each time after a small rise, with selling then diminishing and buyers coming in strongly, what else can happen but that POG will go up soon? The smart money is buying, not selling. You can be sure of this because it is the dumb money that is selling whenever there is the slightest reason, while the buyers are waiting patiently in the wings, biding their time, and their great gobs of beautiful green money, until the buyers have exhausted themselves, then they step in with force and the price jumps up. This means that the big money is with the buyers, not with the sellers. And it also means that the sellers are the small fish, not the big trout. Therefore it only makes sense to believe JPM is telling the truth when it says they have no liability in gold. They haven't been selling. They have been buying. The reason for this is they are not stupid. What difference does it make to them if their stock goes down? They know it will soon go back up again. And, in the meantime, if I worked for JPM, and owned JPM stock. I would buy more, not sell what I had. Well, this puts my thoughts on the line. If I'm wrong, I'm probably way wrong. But I think once you get past the ego part, the part that says, "Oh, it will be so embarassing for everyone to know that I'm wrong," the truth will eventually be got at. I didn't check this for grammar or spelling, since that doesn't seem to be the practice here.
Rock
(01/16/03; 10:36:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 94602)
Re: Trojan
Your answer 3) sounds good at face value but in reality its not going to stand the acid test of time and I'll tell you why. The Iraq's are already in breach of UN resolutions which is why we're in there in the first place. Haven't we learned anything from 911? Isn't waiting for a smoking gun the very thing that brought down the trade centers? Think about it for a moment, looking back all the intelligence prior 911 and hindsight being 20/20 the FBI knew something Big was going to happen but ignored the "INTEL" until BOOM, it happened.
Now I'm all for doing it the UN way but if the inspectors are going to play this cat and mouse game for another year or longer we're jeopardizing the troops because meanwhile Saddam has time to strengthen his defenses and continue his devilish plans. Personally I hope he goes into exile and we can all go home and live happily ever after but I doubt that will happen. So far Bush has been doing it the UN way but as GW said, time is not on Saddam's side. So far you have to give GWB credit for going about this mess the right way, through UN.
Trojan
(01/16/03; 10:21:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 94601)
The Venezuelan Situation
http://www.cbc.ca/cgi-bin/templates/view.cgi?category=Canada&story=/news/2003/01/16/venezuela030116
Does anyone have a good handle on the Venezuelan issue ?
I just read the CBC article linked above.
Any thoughts or predictions on how this will end and when ?
After the February Referendum ?
Will the Referendum matter ?
Thanks for any input that you have to share.
The price of Oil keeps going Up and Up.
Trojan
(01/16/03; 10:03:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 94600)
@ sector Re: Your #94597 (16,000 Tons)
Could you please recheck the link. When I clicked on it I got the following:
The URL you requested does not exist, or is temporarily out of service.
Thank you
Calidor
(01/16/03; 09:48:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 94599)
North Korea
http://www.msnbc.com/news/859191.asp?0cv=CB21
Snippet:
Satellite photos provided by DigitalGlobe confirm the existence of the camps, and interviews with those who have been there and with U.S. officials who study the North suggest Brownback's assessment may be conservative.
Among NBC News’ findings:
At one camp, Camp 22 in Haengyong, some 50,000 prisoners toil each day in conditions that U.S. officials and former inmates say results in the death of 20 percent to 25 percent of the prison population every year.
Products made by prison laborers may wind up on U.S. store shelves, having been "washed" first through Chinese companies that serve as intermediaries.
Entire families, including grandchildren, are incarcerated for even the most bland political statements.
Forced abortions are carried out on pregnant women so that another generation of political dissidents will be "eradicated."
Inmates are used as human guinea pigs for testing biological and chemical agents, according to both former inmates and U.S. officials.
...........
"Listening to their stories, it's horrific," said David Hawk, a veteran human rights campaigner and a consultant for the U.S. Committee for Human Rights in North Korea. Hawk has interviewed many former prisoners in Seoul.
"It's hard to do more than one or two a day because they're just so painful to hear: horrific mistreatment - all sorts of suffering, beatings to death, executions."
Calidor - We've known about the camps for some time through the mainstream press but it was always below most people's radar. Clinton, Monica, hot IPOs, etc. As bad as reported conditions are, I wonder how much worse the treatment really is but that they can't adequately capture the misery and deprivation.
A couple of things about N Korea. They've got a BUNCH of tube artillery and lotsa rounds, both chemical & conventional. They're not going to have a wimpy prep but will soften up those targets with barriages lasting anywhere from hours to a day or two. Four million man army -that's a lot of targets in Rock's vernacular (Infantry speak). Before the hoard comes streaming across (or out of their tunnel Assembly Areas), we'll have several scud variants to worry about; Scud-C, No Dong, and Taepo Dong. Our soldiers found some pretty elaborate cave complexes in Afganistan so you might guess what you can do with a little slave labor. And I 'spect the five-division's worth of Special Ops are, to quote Maddie Albright, "areas of concern". Not to downplay US or South Korean forces and their effectiveness. But there's a LOT of NK's with AK-47's.
Oh, and check out Hipplebeck's link on America from N Korean Viewpoint. Scroll 2/3 the way down to the story The High Cost of Peace. If the story that Kim Il Sung gave Iran two nukes in 1991 is correct, you best believe that N Korea probably has one or two more around.
a nation of one
(01/16/03; 09:48:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 94598)
@ Zhisheng (01/16/03; 09:21:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 94596)
Is the translation by R. B. Blakely still in print? Do you know where I can buy a copy? I own several editions. They are all substantially different. Judging from the meaning of the stanza you provided, Blakely's seems to be truest to the text's original purpose. Thanks.
sector
(01/16/03; 09:29:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 94597)
@ Misetich More on the 16,000 tonne central bank loss of gold
This number 16,000 tonnes really ins't subject to interpretation
It is a fact, reported by the Bank for International Settlements in their Triennial Survey [Of ALL central banks] at their Tables E-41 and E-49 posted at the BIS website.
The gold forwards and swaps column is listed in dollars and has been [In the Howe Dec 4, 2003 commentary] converted to tonnes by using the customary end-of-period PM Fix gold price. This is a standard mark-to-market accounting practice.
The Triennial Survey covered nine years of central banks activity 1992 through 2001.
A forward and/or swap is the sale or swap of a specified gold bullion asset for another different asset class.
The issue is closed as to whether the central banks have lost half their gold. The flawed accounting notion that the lessees who sold the gold can effectively buy the gold back [And return it to the central banks] is absurd since that attempt would skyrocket the market price thus the "Receivable" definition carried by the Bundesbank's Annual Report is not a receivable at all since it cannot in reality be obtained on a reasonable time-sensitive demand notice.
GATA's Bill Murphy reported through John Brimelow yesterday that the Portuguese National Bank has now fully disclosed that they have 70% of their 600 tonnes of gold swapped or lent. This confirming example further strengthens the fact that the 16,000 tonnes number is quite valid.
The clear implications of this are that a massive coordinated effort to suppress the price of gold has been playing out over the last ten years or so.
Coupled with the accounting mischaracterization of gold loans and swaps is the disinformation provided by the World Gold Council. The WGC knew or should have known that ownership of these 16,000 tonnes had changed and no longer were the property of the respective central banks. The WGC none-the-less continues to report bogus gold deposits for the various countries. This misleads the gold-buying public into the false impression that there are still huge amounts of metal waiting for market release. Other "Journalist types" join the misinformation bandwagon and trumpet false gold loan numbers.
The central banks don't own the gold they say they own. The Bundesbank at least combines "gold and gold receivables" into their report.
The central banks have forever lost half their gold. How much the US is "Light" remains in question. THAT the US engaged in gold swaps is in the transcripts of the FOMC in plain English from Wayne Angel and Virgil Mattingly [Chief Counsel, Federal Reserve] beginning in 1991.
The natural conclusion from this revelation and the recent history of the gold price is that the cbs are trying conserve their remaining metal and the risk of a deep price correction is essentially nil. Moreover, a rise to a much higher price is actually badly needed by the central banks to halt today's required heavy [And getting heavier by the day as folks catch on to the scam] selling.
The fun is to gauge how high that price will be and when the desperate G-10 bankers will release it.
The war was a perfect cover but now that there may not BE a war, we are back to square one. The G-10 guys in $3,000 suits just might be forced to "Go Naked" and randomly pop the price without any plausible explanatory cover.
What a thought.
Zhisheng
(01/16/03; 09:21:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 94596)
Tao Te Ching (Hipplebeck 94570,94584; Clink! 94579)
Actually scholars are not sure exactly when was written the Tao Te Ching (pronounced and in the modern Pin Yin method now spelled Dao De Jing). But most common guesses seems to be some time in the 6'th century B.C.---over two and a half millennia ago!
Nothing seems to be known about Lao Tzu for certain---he is a mythological personage like Homer. But his influence on China has been and still is immense. Years ago I had some experience with a modern "religious--philosophical--qi-gong" organization in China, and when I was was told in perfect seriousness than the gifted and talented man who had founded the organization (in the early part of the 20'th century) had been personally tutored by Lao Tzu.
Chinese writing today is nearly all in the popular style--similar to the spoken language (bai hua wen), but in earlier times (18th century and before), it was in a condensed literary style (wen yen wen), which required considerable learning to understand. Translations are not always identical. For instance, Hipplebeck's selection from the 53'rd verse of the Tao Te Ching was the following:
When palaces are kept up
Fields are left to weeds
And granaries empty;
Wearing fine clothes,
Bearing sharp swords,
Glutting with food and drink,
Hoarding wealth and possessions -
These are the ways of theft,
And far from the Way.
In the hyperlink given by Hipplebeck to Lao Tzu the same is translated:
When rich speculators prosper
While farmers lose their land;
when government officials spend money
on weapons instead of cures;
when the upper class is extravagant and irresponsible
while the poor have nowhere to turn-
all this is robbery and chaos.
It is not in keeping with the Tao
Another translation by the missionary and Chinese scholar R. B. Blakely runs as follows:
The royal court is dignified, sedate,
While farmers’ fields are overgrown with weeds;
The granaries are empty and yet they
Are clad in rich-embroidered silken gowns.
They have sharp swords suspended at their sides;
With glutted wealth, they gorge with food and drink.
It is, the people say,
The boastfulness of brigandage;
But surely not the Way!
Trojan
(01/16/03; 09:07:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 94595)
@ Christian "I Couldn't Say It Better"
Re: Manipulation
Thank You
silvercollector
(01/16/03; 09:06:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 94594)
$354 on the button....
...is today the day!!!!
Trojan
(01/16/03; 09:03:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 94593)
@ Rock Re: Saddam
If we find out that Iraq has WMD are you willing to;
1) disarm him if he won't disarm
2) leave him alone, chances are he's no threat to anyone.
Please choose number 1 or 2, lets cut to the chase.
Thanks again,
Rock
How about (3)
What's wrong with letting it play out with the UN doing their Job ?
What's the rush ?
So it takes a year for the UN to find the Weapons if he still has them. Let the USA and Britain give ALL the Intelligence to the inspectors.
At least if Saddam messes up the UN can declare so.
Then All the UN will disarm Saddam.
The USA won't be the Bad Boys. You won't Recruit another 25,000 Terrorists for the Future.
Makes sense to me BUT then again, I'm not Bush Jr.
Christian
(01/16/03; 08:53:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 94592)
Manipulation
The underlying manipulation affecting gold is the yen interest rate. Yen interest rates are lower than gold lease rates. Many Japanese are taking out equity from their overvalued real estate (homes) because they can't sell it to buy gold. The same is true in China. Japanese industrial production to export is moving to China just like ours is. Middle East is borrowing a lot of Yen's to buy gold with. They feel both the yen and the dollar will devalue at least 50% during the next 10 years as gold appreciates at least 100%. Greenspan is the most stuidest man on earth. In his attempt to lower interest rates to keep the bubble economy going he made it possible for speculators to destroy the dollar, the economy that goes with it.---- Who is lying - BUSH or SADDAM?? Both are. We (the Bush Clan) for the love of money sold him that crap and Saddam in his lust for power needs the crap to stay in power. He sold most of the crap to his neighbors and stored the rest at his oil wells. He is going to destroy his own wells and make it so no-one can operate them for many years. So far he has outsmarted us all, he is still in power and will be when this is over. Saddam is less of a DEVIL than Bush is. What he promised to do during the election process and what he is doing as dictator of the USA makes my point. The Bush Clan for the love of money will bankrupt this country. Not that Clinton was any better. The Bush Clan now has the largest short position in our financial markets ever made possible. That says it all what they stand for.
Trojan
(01/16/03; 08:50:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 94591)
@ Hipplebeck Re: The Korean Issue
Hipplebeck, thank you for posting additional information on the Korean Situation. Your post # 94573 was very helpful as was the link to the Kimsoft site.
I consider myself an informed person and I don't think I am easily manipulated as I like to look at all sides of an issue before I take a position.
That being said just for purposes of what if ?
What If CNN or Nightline or CBS News ran this as a News Item.
They can do their Warning that "We Do Not Agree But In The Interest Of Showing How The Other Side Is Thinking We Present The Following"
My Closing Comments on this Post to follow after CNN runs the following in my What If Scenario.
What If: CNN ran this:
Bush's Talk of "Negotiation" Is Nothing But A Deceptive Trickery
A sick drama to deceive the world - A spokesperson of the DPRK Foreign Ministry
Pyongyang (January 15, 2003 - KCNA) -- Regarding the false rumors of "negotiation with North Korea" being spread by the United States lately in order to mislead the world opinion, a spokesperson of the DPRK Foreign Ministry responded to a question put forth by KCNA today as follows:
It has been reported that several officials of the US Government have stated recently that they are ready to talk with us and that if we were to abandon our "nuclear weapons development plan", they may discuss food and energy assistance to us. Some quarters of the world community have taken this statement as signaling a change in the US policy, from 'no negotiation and no reward' to a more conciliatory attitude. On examining the substance of the statement, there is no change in the US policy of "give up your nukes first and then, we may talk", a conditional talk. The American talks of "talk with North Korea" is nothing but a sick drama to deceive the world opinion.
On the 14th of this month, a White House spokesman stated that "the United States will not negotiate but will talk to North Korea about meeting its obligations," thus reiterating the same old US policy. We took seriously the US-Japan-Seoul joint declaration of January 7th that mentions negotiations, and consequently, we have done our best to start up negotiations with the United States.
One day before our NPT pullout announcement on January 10th, a third nation informed us that the US "was ready" to start negotiations with us, and taking it seriously, we contacted the US State Department through our channel in New York.
The US State Department told our reprehensive curtly that "we have nothing to say" about starting negotiations.
To cite another example of the US hypocrisies, the United States claims without fail that it does not use humanitarian aids for political purposes. The fact of the matter is that the United States wants to stop food aids to us on the lame excuse that our aid food distribution is not transparent.
What the United States is demanding for 'transparent' distribution of aid food is for us to open up our entire nation, including our military sites, to the US inspection - no transparency, no food.
The United States says that we may get some food and energy aids, if we disarmed ourselves first. The food and energy aids the United States is referring to are no more than cakes in a painting. At a time when the US-Pyongyang tension is nearing the breaking point, the United States is saying that we must put down our arms first before it may discuss a non-aggression treaty and economic aids.
This is nonsensical and goes beyond the realm of common sense logic. The bottom-line is that the United States is not interested in any negotiated settlement of the crisis.
The self-contradicting statements comeing from Washington are a ruse to deceive us and the world opinion in order to buy time for the other scheme of the United States. It has been our desire to resolve the US-Pyongyang conflicts through negotiations as equal participants. Our desire remains the same.
We have made it clear to the US government that we are willing to solve our nuclear problem through negotiations, if the United States agree to recognize our government, sign a non-aggression treaty, and stop placing obstacles to our economic development.
No matter how hard the Bush administration may try to trick us and the world opinion, no one is stupid enough to be duped.
Unless the United States changes its anti-Pyongyang policy in a fundamental way, the current crisis will persist and the United States will be held solely responsible for the consequences.
End Of Article
You know, folks when Saddam says something you take it with a grain of salt because his words are just that, just words and slogans.
However I see the North Korean Leader in a different light. Why ? When I first saw the USA view of North Korea's response to the USA offer to resume Food Aid and Energy if North Korea disarms as kind of empty words. Example: "They are no more than cakes in a painting."
Sure it is if taken out of Context as it is if you take it from the Reposted Article above.
Why Not Full Disclosure ?
Why Not let People decide for themselves ?
If I had just come from another Planet and turned on a TV and watched a CNN Report on North Korea and then read the above article from North Korea, my reaction would be.
Why does the USA ignore what their Adversary is saying when what they say seems pretty clear.
All We Want Is Peace. We are Not An Axis Of Evil. We will disarm if we know YOU wan't Attack us.
Unless we have a Non-Aggression Pact, what good is your food and energy ? You could attack us at any time.
We have made it clear to the US government that we are willing to solve our nuclear problem through negotiations, if the United States agree to recognize our government, sign a non-aggression treaty, and stop placing obstacles to our economic development.
No matter how hard the Bush administration may try to trick us and the world opinion, no one is stupid enough to be duped.
Now I see why Russia and China are backing North Korea though they pay lip service to the USA publically.
The more I know the clearer it becomes who the real Threat is.
Bush, Cheney and Rumsfield and ALL the Boys.
Note to them:
You are not playing with fools here. They may be Ruthless People but they are your equals in the Intellect Area.
Don't underestimate them. This is NOT Saddam. They are ready to FIGHT for their Rights..
And That's the way I see it until or unless someone convinces me otherwise.
Hipplebeck
(01/16/03; 08:48:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 94590)
Rock
2- containment
Rock
(01/16/03; 08:30:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 94589)
Re: Hipplebeck
I understand the arguments that can be made regarding different countries holding WMD and the different politics involved. Its too deep of a subject to elaborate on here at the castle especially when the King is nearby listening. That being said you still didn't answer my question.
If we find out that Iraq has WMD are you willing to;
1) disarm him if he won't disarm
2) leave him alone, chances are he's no threat to anyone.
Please choose number 1 or 2, lets cut to the chase.
Thanks again,
Rock
Rock
(01/16/03; 08:19:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 94588)
Hot Off The Press!
Ricin suspects may have ties to Iraq terrorists, story developing. If ever there was a time to own gold now is the time. Gold, get you some.
Speaking of survival, it's time to change the water (every six months) in my 450 gallons of FDA drums. I purchased them for Y2K but I'm using them now as part of my emergency food storage program. One of the things I like about the castle is that most of us are survivors and we are trying to get the word out to others before its too late.
It brings to thought of a Biblical story of the seven virgins who were told to keep their oil lamps full so when the master of the house returned they would be ready to go out and meet him. The story goes on to say that only half of the virgins were prepared and when the master of the house returned they all began their journey to meet the master but at the half way mark some of the virgins ran out of light and those who were unprepared asked those who were prepared to give them some of their oil but the other virgins replied, if we give you our oil we won't have enough to make the journey.
The moral of the story, a lot of people won't be able to make the coming journey that is about to embark on them. I'll echo the words of Sir Blackblade, get out of debt, store some nonperishable, store some cash on hand for a few months, get some portfolio insurance in the form of gold and silver and may God be with you.
Rock
Clink!
(01/16/03; 07:56:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 94587)
@Hipplebeck
At least I was out by less than a thousand years !
Hipplebeck
(01/16/03; 07:53:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 94586)
Rock
I think Saddam is lying.
I think there a lot of countries lying about their WMD.
I don't think we should bomb everyone because they want to protect themselves like we are. To pre-emptively attack means it is ok for N. Korea or Iran to nuke us now.
Hipplebeck
(01/16/03; 07:49:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 94585)
Can N. Korea nuke Chicago?
http://www.kimsoft.com/2003/daepong2.htm
next move in the chess match
Hipplebeck
(01/16/03; 07:43:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 94584)
Clink! Lao Tsu (Lao Tze)
http://www.chinapage.com/gnl.html
around 620 AD
Rock
(01/16/03; 07:39:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 94583)
Who's Lying Bush or Saddam? Time will tell!
Hipplebeck since you believe that Bush is lying regarding WMD in Iraq my question is IF they find the smoking gun that everyone is looking for would you then be convinced that Saddam is a liar and Bush was telling the truth? Would you then agree if Saddam doesn't disarm that war may be the only other way of disarming him?
As far as I'm concerned its not up to UN to find the smoking gun because we already know he has WMD, its up to Saddam to disarm. Some like Hipplebeck are of the mindset that since the UN can't find WMD that Saddam is telling the truth and that Bush wants war. All I can say is we will soon see who's telling the truth and who is lying.
By the way Hipplebeck that was a great article you posted from Sinclair regarding Al-Queda's choice of terror, excellent data.
Hey Blade I went to the club yesterday and did some intense unilateral training as you did recently. Its easy to get caught up in bilateral routines but we know the advantages of strengthening those weaker muscle groups that get easily overlooked using the standard bilateral movements.
Cheers,
Rock
Hipplebeck
(01/16/03; 07:33:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 94582)
war with America from North Korea viewpoint
http://www.kimsoft.com/
interesting reading
Waverider
(01/16/03; 07:20:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 94581)
Spot 'n Spike
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
Bite 'm boys....
mikal
(01/16/03; 06:59:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 94580)
@Hipplebeck
http://www.yt.org/article.php?sid=920
This older article is considered Part I or the background article to the one below:
PINR: "North Korea threat part of U.S. regional strategy"
Printed on Tuesday, December 10, 2002 @ 01:56:19 EST ( )
Power and Interest News Report (PINR) -Excerpts:
.....North Korea has been yearning to strengthen its economy that has been constrained by international regulations disallowing economic aid from U.S.-controlled multilateral financial institutions. Pyongyang was hoping the 1994 U.S. – D.P.R.K. Agreed Framework would facilitate this.....
In addition to the TMD, the U.S. is also discussing the implementation of the Navy Theater Wide Defense (NTWD) system that could be installed on U.S. and Japanese Aegis warships. These mobile missile defense systems could severely weaken China's military threat and reduce Beijing's political clout. China is concerned that its ballistic missiles, pointed at Taipei to prevent their independence, could be rendered ineffective by a NTWD protecting Taiwan. While official recognition of China's threat to the U.S. would cause unwanted political ramifications, the touting of North Korea as a public threat provides a convenient justification for the development of both these new missile defense systems.
China is warily monitoring North Korea and U.S. relations. China is considered North Korea's closest ally, largely because China is protecting its southern border from unwanted influence. If North Korea should become politically unstable, it could prompt U.S. forces to move north from the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) -- where 37,000 U.S. troops help separate North and South Korea -- to fill any power vacuum created by a government breakdown. Such a move would cause instant conflict with China; therefore, China has both a vested military and political interest in maintaining their support of North Korea.
Besides North Korea and China, resistance to this U.S. strategy is coming from South Korea, which hopes to create stronger ties with North Korea in preparation for future reunification. The prospect of worsening relations with Pyongyang is not only scorned in Seoul, but is also feared.
North Korea has the fourth largest military in the world with over 1.2 million armed personnel compared with only 650,000 in South Korea. Military spending stands at 20-25 percent of the North's GNP. Pyongyang has the second-largest special operations force in the world, including 55,000 troops trained to operate behind enemy lines in case of warfare.
Because these troops are massed on the DMZ, the South Korean capital of Seoul would probably be decimated in any major conflict. This danger, and the high cost of war, explains South Korea's open-door policy towards the North, typified by South Korean Prime Minister Kim Dae-jung's Sunshine Policy. These divergent policies have created a political rift between South Korea and the United States.
The upcoming elections in South Korea may affect this conflict, especially if the less conciliatory Lee Hoi-chang is elected and takes a harder stance on North Korea. However, as mentioned above, it will be difficult for any South Korean government to be overly bold due to the tension along the DMZ.
The real variable is Japan. The U.S. has been counting on Japan's military establishment for support of the missile defense projects. The Koizumi government has been struggling to moderate between its military establishment -- closely linked to the United States -- and its regional allies such as South Korea, who want a less-hostile approach toward Pyongyang. Japan has been forced to reassess its diverging alliances; however, it is doubtful that it will risk straining ties with its largest export market, the United States.
Constrained by these alliance pressures, it is unlikely that the U.S. will risk direct military confrontation with North Korea. At the same time, Washington, keeping a wary eye on growing Chinese military and political influence, also considers it prudent to maintain North Korea as a perceived threat -- at least until the new Theater Missile Defense and Navy Theater Wide Defense systems are in place to help maintain the balance of regional power in favor of U.S. interests. -End snippits
Erich Marquardt drafted this report; Matthew Riemer, Gillian Norman contributed.
Source: http://www.pinr.com
Clink!
(01/16/03; 06:51:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 94579)
@Hipplebeck
Interesting poem - could you give us some background on the poet ? It seems so apt for our current situation that I am ready to be told that it was written in the 15th century or something !
mikal
(01/16/03; 06:47:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 94578)
@Hipplebeck
http://www.yt.org/article.php?sid=992
That was a very interesting and informative article you posted, even if some of it was dated. Thanks. Here is another:
Printed on Wednesday, January 15, 2003 Power and Interest News Report (PINR) (Read background report)
Excerpts:
(PINR) -- Carefully playing its cards, North Korea may have successfully brought the United States to the negotiating table. Angry over being labeled as part of the "axis of evil," along with the failure of the U.S. to live up to its energy commitments agreed to in 1994, Pyongyang took advantage of the looming war in Iraq to complicate U.S. strategic goals and to thrust North Korea's political and economic concerns on to the global stage.....
More importantly, North Korea's tactics give justification for the Bush administration's plans to build a missile defense shield. While the Bush administration claims the missile defense shield will be used to counter the North Korean threat, Beijing fears that the United States is attempting to cage the growing Asian dragon. Along with establishing new military bases on China's western borders, the United States already has bases to the south and east of China, forming a half-circle around the country. With a successful missile defense shield, much of China's military in the Pacific would be rendered technologically useless.
Beijing's fear is fast becoming a reality, as Japan's military establishment seems to have gained more clout in Tokyo after Pyongyang's recent moves. The Koizumi government has already dispatched the controversial state-of-the-art Japanese Aegis destroyer to set sail to the Indian Ocean to assist the U.S.-led "war on terrorism." The U.S. is discussing the implementation of the Navy Theater Wide Defense (NTWD) system that could be installed on Aegis warships; these mobile missile defense systems could severely weaken China's military threat and reduce Beijing's political clout. Many of China's ballistic missiles could become ineffective by a NTWD system.
Even more worrisome to China is the emergence of a small group in Japan calling for the creation of nuclear weapons to protect the island nation. Despite Japan's strong anti-war stance, embedded into the constitution after World War II, the nuclear debate has finally entered the political arena. In April of 2002, Japan's Liberal Party president Ichiro Ozawa boasted that Japan could create "thousands of nuclear warheads" very quickly should it become necessary. A nuclear Japan would greatly minimize China's political and military power in all of Asia.
For these reasons, Beijing will be informing Pyongyang that they should accept the recent U.S. offer for negotiations. North Korea will most likely accept Kelly's overture. So far, Pyongyang has been careful to reassure the world that they have "no intentions of building nuclear weapons." But Pyongyang may become overly zealous and create a situation from which it will have difficulty backing down. Such a situation could redirect South Korean negative sentiment away from the United States and toward Pyongyang. That result will not be in the best interests of Kim Jong-il's North Korea. -End snippit.
Erich Marquardt drafted this report; Matthew Riemer contributed. Original source: www.pinr.com
Hipplebeck
(01/16/03; 06:26:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 94577)
Trojan
The north korean article I posted below, may have been written before 1999. It refers to a target date in the 1994 agreement as being three years away, but it also refers to Kim Yong Sam as being leader of South Korea.
steady
(01/16/03; 06:17:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 94576)
gold fever!
http://www.angelfire.com/music5/dixie7b/goldfever.wav
i think the hobbits the wizards the fair maidens andthe knights and lords at this table will like this lil ditty of a song!
Brett Woods
(01/16/03; 06:08:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 94575)
Counter party and risk
Did JPM borrow gold, sell it, loan proceeds to Enron controlled shell companies which then contracted with parent company for goods never delivered and paid with loan money so Enron could book the loan as revenue? Is such a transaction legitimately insured?
***
JP Morgan, Enron, and Gold
By James Turk, Editor
The Freemarket Gold & Money Report
www.FGMR.com
Letter 317, January 6, 2003
Copyright 2003 by The Freemarket Gold & Money Report
I have today mailed the following letter to
the Enforcement Division of the Securities
and Exchange Commission. It's about time that
we learn the truth regarding JP Morgan
Chase's activity in the gold market, the full
extent of its gold exposure, and whether it
used gold loans to fund the so-called
"disguised loans" that it arranged for Enron.
Perhaps the SEC will help us learn the truth
by investigating these matters and reporting
the results.
* * *
Dear Sir/Madam:
I am writing in regard to recent statements
made by the management of JP Morgan Chase
(JPM) relating to its activity in the gold
market. This is to ask for your determination
whether their statements are false or
misleading.
On January 2nd JPM announced that it had
reached an out-of-court settlement with
several insurance companies regarding JPM's
involvement with Enron. You will recall that
these insurance companies had initiated this
litigation, alleging in their lawsuit brought
in New York federal court that certain
trading transactions between JPM and Enron
were shams, thereby negating the insurance
contracts covering these transactions.
In a press conference subsequent to their
January 2nd announcement, JPM management
commented on rumors relating to its activity
in the gold market. I refer to the following
CBSMarketWatch report by Luisa Beltran and
Greg Morcroft published on January 2, 2003:
"[JP Morgan Chase] executives said that,
despite persistent rumors to the contrary, it
has no exposure to the recent run-up in gold
prices. 'We don't have any real exposure to
gold. I don't know where that rumor keeps
coming from, but it's not true,' CEO Harrison
said. 'We have seen this rumor pop up again
and again,' added chief counsel McDavid, 'and
we have asked the SEC to look into it.'"
I have no specific knowledge about these
rumors, other than what I have learned from
the media. But I am very pleased to hear that
the SEC has been asked to investigate them.
In this regard, I am writing to bring the
following matters to your attention.
Given that these so-called rumors "pop up
again and again" as Mr. McDavid states,
perhaps they have some basis in fact. It is a
well-established truth that "buzz" about a
company will often circulate before an event.
For example, rumors about derivative problems
in Long Term Capital Management circulated
well before that company's collapse. More
recently, word of potential problems in Enron
circulated freely, much of which was reported
in the media. The protracted drop in Enron's
share price for several months before the
resignation of its CEO, which itself occurred
three months before that company's
bankruptcy, was an indication that the market
believed (as evidenced by that company's
declining share price) the rumors about
Enron's problems had some basis in fact.
In both of these instances, company
management denied that there was any
substance to the so-called "rumors" that were
circulating, as JPM management has now also
similarly done. I also bring to your
attention the decline in JPM's share price
that occurred last year while these rumors
about its gold exposure circulated.
Thus, your investigation into the rumors
about JPM's activity in the gold market is
timely, but the focus of your investigation
should not be, as JPM management implies, how
these so-called "rumors" started. Rather,
your investigation should determine whether
these rumors have any basis in fact. If they
do, then this is to also ask for your
determination whether the statements above by
Messrs. Harrison and McDavid are false or
misleading.
To assist you, I would like to bring the
following matters to your attention:
1) The Wall Street Journal published an
insightful article about JPM and Enron on
January 25, 2002 ("Insurers Balk at Paying
Bank Up to $1 Billion in Claims On Complex
Transactions"). That article provides an
overview about the financing provided by JPM
to Enron, through Mahonia Ltd., a company
Chase Manhattan (one of JPM's predecessor
companies) established in the Channel
Islands.
The article states:
"Prepaying for future delivery of a commodity
is known as a 'gold trade,' because it is the
way gold bullion has been trading for
centuries. In recent years, trading
companies, whether from Houston or Wall
Street, have been making more use of this
structure to buy and sell oil, natural gas
and other commodities. Some commercial banks,
including Chase Manhattan had to set up part
of these trades overseas because their
banking charters wouldn't allow them to take
delivery of commodities."
The article describes what is generally known
as a commodity swap, and gold is frequently
used in one side of the transaction. As an
ex-banker (1969 to 1980), I have some
knowledge about how these transactions work,
as banks are a facilitator for them.
When gold is used to finance a commodity
swap, bullion is borrowed from a central
bank, and sold to raise dollars, which are
then used to purchase the commodity on the
other side of the transaction (oil and gas in
the case of Enron). It is noteworthy that the
WSJ article specifically mentions a "gold
trade"; given this remark, anyone
knowledgeable about commodity swaps might
naturally assume that JPM/Mahonia was
arranging gold-for-energy swaps for Enron.
Thus, this WSJ article may be the original
source of the so-called "rumors" referred to
by JPM management. But importantly, this WSJ
article also suggests that these rumors may
have some basis in fact.
The article did not specifically state from
where Mahonia was obtaining the funding
needed to purchase the commodity contracts it
acquired from Enron (the so-called "disguised
loans" the insurance companies contended were
shams). Nor did a WSJ article published
August 13, 2002, ("Enron Probe Shines Harsh
Light on Financiers") disclose the nature or
the original source of the funding needed to
complete these commodity swaps, but this
later article does provide more information
about potential gold activities by JPM in its
dealings with Enron:
"In the world of commodities, particularly
gold trading, the 50-year-old Mr. Mehta
[Chase's and then JPM's head gold trader] was
well known. His successful marketing of
derivatives, and his enthusiasm for the use
of these instruments, helped the gold-hedging
business take off in the 1990s. Mr. Mehta and
his team executed [deals which] allowed Enron
to use an offshore vehicle known as Mahonia
to raise hundreds of millions of dollars from
J.P. Morgan."
Taken together, there are enough facts
disclosed in these two WSJ articles to
suggest that gold loans could be one possible
source of funding for Mahonia's commodity
swaps with Enron, and if so, these gold loans
could lead to the "gold exposure" denied by
JPM management.
2) An article about Enron in The New York
Times published on February 17, 2002, was
important for the following statement (note
the emphasis added by me):
"Partly because of the way the loans [by
JPM/Mahonia to Enron] were accounted for, the
company [i.e., Enron] reported A SURGE IN ITS
HEDGING ACTIVITY, ACCOMPLISHED USING
FINANCIAL CONTRACTS CALLED DERIVATIVES,
DURING ITS LAST FEW YEARS. When pressed about
the increase by skeptical analysts, Enron
officials said the numbers reflected hedges
for commodity trades, not new financing, the
analysts said."
The key point here is the "surge" in
derivative contracts entered into by Enron
"during its last few years." Each derivative
has two parties to the contract. To my
knowledge it has not been disclosed who took
the other side of the Enron contracts, but
the following information from the U.S.
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
offers one possible answer.
According to its website, the OCC "charters,
regulates, and supervises national banks to
ensure a safe, sound, and competitive banking
system that supports the citizens,
communities, and economy of the United
States." As part of this responsibility it
collects information about the derivative
exposure of the nation's banks.
The disclosure by Chase Manhattan Bank
(before its merger with Morgan Bank) is
telling. In three years from December 31,
1997, to December 31, 2000, there was a surge
in Chase's gold derivative contracts from
$11.8 billion to $29.8 billion. Because of
the merger, it is not possible to determine
from the OCC reports Chase's derivative
activity for 2001. But looking at the
derivative exposure of JPM on a combined
basis subsequent to its merger, it is
noteworthy that after the Enron bankruptcy at
the end of 2001, the gold derivative activity
of JPM was unchanged -- at $41.0 billion
reported at December 31, 2001, and $41.0
billion as of September 30, 2002, the latest
reporting period available. Thus, Chase's
derivative contracts in gold surged while
Enron's derivative contracts surged, and then
remained unchanged after Enron collapsed.
This pattern suggests that it is possible
Chase (and JPM as its successor) was the
counterparty to Enron's derivative contracts.
Further, this growth in gold derivative
contracts provides further evidence to the
possibility I note above that gold was used
by Mahonia to fund the commodity swaps (the
so-called "disguised loans") that it entered
into with Enron.
The August 13, 2002, Wall Street Journal
article states:
"Mr. Mehta has had other high-profile scrapes
with controversy while at the bank. For
instance, Mr. Mehta came under fire for the
bank's earlier arrangements with Sumitomo
Corp., the Japanese trading company and the
employer of a copper rogue trader named Yasuo
Hamanaka who lost $2.6 billion in copper
trades. Mr. Mehta's team structured a number
of derivatives transactions that allowed Mr.
Hamanaka to raise money that didn't appear to
senior Sumitomo executives as debt, said
people familiar with the deals."
Thus, perhaps the rumors circulating about
JPM's gold exposure have some basis in fact.
In any case, the above material does
highlight the importance of your
investigation.
I note again Mr. Harrison's statement: "We
don't have any real exposure to gold."
Perhaps in your investigation you can ask him
to define the term "real." That JPM has
exposure to gold is undeniable from the OCC
reports. And there are different kinds of
exposure from derivatives -- price risk and
counter-arty risk.
It may be that through its derivative
contracts, JPM believes it does not have any
price exposure to gold. However, while the
gold market has been generally quiescent and
its price relatively stable the past few
years, gold in recent weeks has become very
active.
As we have learned from the collapse of Long
Term Capital Management, volatility
undermines what otherwise may appear to be a
safe derivatives position. So we will see in
the weeks and months ahead whether JPM's
derivative exposure to the gold price is
indeed under control.
Given the size of its position, it may be
difficult for JPM to keep its price risk
controlled. JPM's gold derivative exposure of
$41 billion of notional value represents 117
million ounces of gold -- a number that is
nearly 50 percent greater than all the gold
produced worldwide in a year. Thus it seems
likely that the gold market may not be able
to provide the liquidity JPM will need to
keep its gold derivative position in balance
in a period of increased gold price
volatility, which is a result that would
clearly negate Mr. Harrison's contention that
JPM does not have "any real exposure to
gold."
Then there is counterparty risk, which is
always present because the financial position
of companies changes. Counterparties deemed
creditworthy when JPM entered into derivative
contracts may no longer be financially as
strong as before. Further, if in fact the
simultaneous surge in Enron's and JPM's
derivative contracts was not just
coincidental and they were counterparties to
each other, one has to wonder whether JPM has
any ongoing exposure to Enron in these
derivative contracts.
It is noteworthy that JPM's most recent 10-Q
shows that derivative receivables rose $16.4
billion, or 23.0 percent, in the nine months
from December 31, 2001, to $87.5 billion as
of September 30. The net change is actually
25 percent when adjusting derivative
receivables as of December 31, 2001, to
reclassify to Other Assets the Enron-related
surety receivables from the insurance
companies in the case now settled.
Does this glaring (and potentially alarming)
surge in derivative receivables reported by
JPM reflect an inability of JPM's
counterparties to deliver under their
derivative contract commitments?
And perhaps more importantly, to help
evaluate the accuracy and therefore
reliability of Mr. Harrison's statement, what
portion of this derivative receivable relates
to gold?
The point is that certain aspects of JPM's
derivative disclosure appear to be
inadequate. Thus, this is to ask that you
make a determination in your investigation
whether JPM's disclosure about its gold
derivatives has been sufficient, and indeed
whether the statements by its management
about JPM's gold exposure are not false or
misleading.
Lastly, your Internet site states: "The laws
and rules that govern the securities industry
in the United States derive from a simple and
straightforward concept: All investors,
whether large institutions or private
individuals, should have access to certain
basic facts about an investment prior to
buying it. To achieve this, the SEC requires
public companies to disclose meaningful
financial and other information to the
public, which provides a common pool of
knowledge for all investors to use to judge
for themselves if a company's securities are
a good investment."
To achieve this objective, the SEC must
investigate JPM in order to determine whether
it is providing the investing public with
sufficient disclosure on its gold exposure,
which from the OCC reports is undeniable.
Further, the SEC must determine whether the
statements above by JPM management are false
or misleading.
I look forward to reading and learning the
results of your investigation.
For the sake of disclosure, I do not have any
position in the stock of JPM.
Yours truly,
James Turk
***
Christian
(01/16/03; 05:54:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 94574)
Full Parity
GDP violates basic accounting principals and common sense by trating the depletion of national resource capital as income rather than as depreciation of an asset. This GDP accounting system does not reflect depletion or degradation of the natural resources used to produce goods and services. As a result, the more the nation depletes its natural resources to produce goods and services, the more the GDP goes up. GDP does not account the increased spending by borrowing from abroad. The present GDP treats crime, drug abuse, property damage, resource degration, and financial speculation costs as economic advances. Presently the GDP consists of borrowing resources from the future (25,000 tonnes gold short position), borrowing home equity to finance spending, and resource depletion from degrating of our forests, oil, coal and mineral deposits. All money is debt money in our system. There is no other source of money except to borrow it into existence that makes up our GDP. How in the world can debt be retired with debt dollars? Debt is only the consequence of a lack of honest commodity money parity in debt free form. With debt free commodity money we'd have real income, which would enable us to come to parity with debt. As long as income cannot be dollarized except by becoming more debt there is no way out. Debt is the consequence of a lack of honest money.
Hipplebeck
(01/16/03; 05:51:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 94573)
Trojan-concerning North Korea
http://www.kimsoft.com/korea/kmc-324.htm
If you want to see the real chess match that is going on, read this article very carefully. Who is playing into whose hands? Remember, this article was written in 1999.
-----------------------------------------------------------
The Geneva agreement has two key provisions: one is the turnkey delivery of two lightwater nuclear reactors to Pyongyang by 2003
and the other establishment of full diplomatic relations between Pyongyang and Washington.
However, work on the construction of reactors is yet to start, leaving only three years before the target date, which is clearly
impossible to meet, even if they should race against time. The DPRK has only to wait and see. Eventually in a few years, probably
before the end of the century, the Americans will be forced to propose a key change to the 1994 agreement by advising the north
Koreans that there is no completing the KEDO project by the deadline agreed on and asking for their consent to postponing the target
date by up to ten years.
The likely first north Korean response will be "Delinquent!" "Deception!" and threats to resume their suspended nuclear activities. The
American option will be either imposition of economic sanctions or offer of downright establishment of full diplomatic relations and
conclusion of a peace treaty to replace the present fragile armistice agreement.
Since the declaration of economic sanctions or any attempt to blackmail the north Koreans into submission is bound to lead to
resumption of full-scale hostilities in Korea, the worst-case scenario it is not prepared for, the United States will be left with no
alternative but to agree to establish full diplomatic relations and negotiate a peace treaty .
This eventuality will make irrelevant the south Korean regime or the Republic of Korea. The anti-DPRK, anti-democratic National
Security Law, the all-powerful legal weapon with which the successive regimes in Seoul has kept the south Korean population in line
and condemned tens of thousands of people to death or imprisoned numerous democratic and patriotic champions of reunification, will
have to go.
Hundreds of thousands of people will take to streets in Seoul and other parts of south Korea, demanding honorable reinstatement of
those punished under the law, compensation and a special tribunal to try the former officials in the successive dictatorial regimes,
including the present Kim Yong Sam administration and in the one to be installed next February.
A new democratic coalition government will be formed in Seoul and undertake thorough political, legal, economic, social, and cultural
reforms and prepare south Korea for reunification with north Korea. The new national-unity government will be more respon sive to
peace overtures from Pyongyang.
If the Americans should manage to meet the target date by all means, which is unlikely, the same eventuality would occur. Besides,
given the fact that overland transportation and direct flights across the DMZ are much easier and less costly than maritime
transportation or air flights by way of Beijing, smooth and speedy progress of the KEDO project will soon compel the Americans and
the south Koreans to opt to dismantle the Military Demarcation Line. Hundreds of, thousands of south Korean engineers will h ave to
ply between two parts of Korea. These developments will also go a long way to nullifying the National Security Law.
In other words, the political, legal, economic, and social systems that have ruled south Korea since the 1948 installation of the
Syngman Rhee regime will have to be totally reconsidered and revised. Otherwise, the 1994 agreement and the KEDO project will go
nowhere.
Secondly, despite its international image as an independent and sovereign country, the status of south Korea as a client state,
second-class ally of the United States will be called into serious question when the government of Marshal Kim Jong Il ends up
establishing full diplomatic relations and ending the state of war with the United States without south Korean participation.
South Korea has not been involved in any of all the key matters relating to peace and security on the Korean Peninsula. The Korean
armistice agreement was negotiated and signed by the north Korean and American representatives in defiance of the south Kore an
objection. The 1968 Pueblo, 1976 Poplar Tree and 1994 chopper incidents were resolved through direct bilateral negotiations between
the DPRK and the United States.
The most spectacular case in point is the September 1997 submarine incident. A north Korean submarine was found grounded off
Kangrung, south Korea, not off New York or Florida or California or Hawaii, but the incident was discussed and settled by north
Korean and American negotiators in their 11 rounds of bilateral talks in New York.
The successful implementation of the nuclear agreement will bring the client-state, second-class status of south Korea home to its
people who have long-standing doubts on the nature of the Seoul regime. The south Korean people will be encouraged to topple the
outdated, anti-Korean government in Seoul and install a new democratic government which will reassert independence from the United
States and seek to renegotiate the defense treaty and the status of forces agreement with Washington.
Thirdly, the anti-people, undemocratic nature of the successive regimes including the current Kim Yong Sam government will be
revealed once again for all to see in striking contrast with the DPRK under the leadership of Marshal Kim Jong Il. The south Korean
people will emerge victors in Seoul by dethroning the undemocratic regime, inspired by the full display of Koreanism in the DPRK. By
2003, the DPRK leader will have been credited with talking on an equal footing with the United States and ending the state of war with
the world's sole superpower, a shining diplomatic and political exploit unprecedented in world history -- the feat which the successive
south Korean regimes have been unequal to.
The first south Korean ruler called Syngman Rhee was flown to Seoul to be in stalled as a client of America, only to be toppled in a
student uprising and airlifted out of south Korea. Gen. Park Chung Hee, a former Japanese imperial army officer, was shot to death by
his KCIA chief, who claimed to have American backing. Gen. Chun Du Hwan was disgraced by Gen. Ro Tae U, both of whom are
now in jail, the former being a death-row inmate and the other serving a life sentence. Kim Yong Sam is most likely to face a similar
fate.
All these rulers amassed billions of dollars worth of fortunes while in power. They all staged bloody clampdowns on the local people
who demanded democracy and reunification. Reportedly, Kim Yong Sam is planning to seek asylum in Canada immediately after his
term expires in February next year and live on the huge amount of dollars he has siphoned off from the state coffers into his secret
accounts.
misetich
(01/16/03; 05:37:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 94572)
JP Morgan denial
"The risk of contracts is held by our clients and we actually don't have any risk associated in the contracts."
Misetich
Further thoughts - Assuming and giving JP Morgan the benefit of doubt that the statement is correct - and assuming JP Morgan borrowed/leased gold directly from CB's and leased it to a miner who sold it and invested proceeds in Treasuries thus the "premium gold program" ei) Barrick Gold -
Isn't JP Morgan stuck with the potential risk default of the miner IF the hedging program blows out?
Most of the gold sold forward by miners took place between $280 to $400 - and rolled forward etc.
However with interest rates being what they are today this "rollerover" is getting trickier for them is it not?
Of course it is conceivable that these miners have also purchased long positions to counteract their liability-
The bottom line - PHYSICAL GOLD IS GONE
If GATA, Veneroso etc. are correct that 16,000 tons of CB leased gold is gone - how are the present/future physical demand going to be met as production lags demand?
and how is JP Morgan going to be affected?
The longer the US economy continues to underperform - interest rates are maintained at these levels - the US $ continues the descend - Gold demand as an investment will rise - as gold shorts including miners are forced to hedge continuosly higher and higher as their previous hedging contracts expire
it appears that their statement of $10 million liability exposure to gold is a farce
Got gold?
Black Blade
(01/16/03; 05:34:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 94571)
Market Indicators
http://www.crbtrader.com/data/mktcom.asp
The USD is lower, PMs are flat, oil is surging higher, and NatGas is slightly higher. The US market index futures are lower this morning but above "fair value". Today we get weekly unemployment and NG inventory data. Gold could trade wildly as tomorrow is expiry. If anything it should be an "entertaining" day on Wall Street.
- Black Blade
Hipplebeck
(01/16/03; 04:42:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 94570)
GratefulForGold
http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/vip/2003/0113.htm
I don't know if it was a hoax or not.
Sinclair says he has it on good authority that it is not, so who knows. Just because the name spelled backwards says, well, you know, doesn't necessarily mean it is a hoax. It could just be a clever alias.
Regardless, the answers still make sense to me. The US dollar is a house of cards. I personally believe we are on the edge of a very bad storm, and that is why the rush to war. If we can see that it is a house of cards, then so can our government employees and bankers. And so can the rest of the world. The importer has no clothes. It has only been a little over thirty years since we have gone off the gold standard and flooded the world with dollars. Greenspan has said many times it is unsustainable, it will reverse, and that he is constantly amazed that it has held up this long.
We are faced with probably thirty years of hard work and budget cutbacks just to get back to even, or to go and steal what we need to keep our superior position. In these days of instant gratification, I expect the temptation is too great.
It will probably be war, and I expect we will probably lose in the long run because it is hard to justify war on immoral foundations.
When rich speculators prosper
While farmers lose their land;
when government officials spend money
on weapons instead of cures;
when the upper class is extravagant and irresponsible
while the poor have nowhere to turn-
all this is robbery and chaos.
It is not in keeping with the Tao.
Lao Tzu
ElGordo
(01/16/03; 02:30:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 94569)
S Korea braces for potential War
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=578&u=/nm/20030116/ts_nm/korea_north_dc&printer=1
BEIJING/SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea (news - web sites) said on Thursday it was prepared for a worst-case scenario that included war on the peninsula if diplomacy failed to resolve the crisis over the North's suspected nuclear weapons ambitions.
Defense Minister Lee Jun told parliament that war would be unavoidable if diplomacy failed, even as Washington's top envoy for Asia warned that settling the issue would be a long, slow process.
Black Blade
(01/16/03; 02:17:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 94568)
Natural-Gas Producers Have Winter Blues
http://cgi.wn.com/?action=display&article=17976249&template=gas/indexsearch.txt&index=recent
Snippit:
NEW YORK (AP) — The weather outside is frightful, and inside the price of natural gas for home heating is far from delightful for consumers. Yet natural-gas producers — who might be expected to search for more of their precious commodity in such an environment — aren't ramping up exploration and don't expect to. Turns out the producers have their own winter blues: easy-to-access (read: cheap) U.S. reserves have been depleted, meaning explorers have to spend much more money looking for gas elsewhere. Natural-gas prices are now above $5 per million British thermal units, and more cold weather is expected. Meanwhile, U.S. inventories totaled 2.33 trillion cubic feet this past week. This is within the five-year historical range, but half a trillion cubic feet below the levels of a year ago. Experts fear the persistence of severe weather could force inventories as low as 800 billion cubic feet by April 1.
Black Blade: The kiss of death for the US economy. Nearly every new power plant is dependent on NG and some older ones can switch to light oil but with higher oil prices we are assured of an energy crunch.
Black Blade
(01/16/03; 01:59:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 94567)
World Markets Go Negative
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asia and now Euro markets are in negative territory. Few are convinced of economic recovery.
- Black Blade
Spartacus
(01/16/03; 01:56:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 94566)
(No Subject)
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,482-541109,00.html
"The American empire, a fine old British tradition"
By William Rees-Mogg
Black Blade
(01/16/03; 01:31:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 94565)
Plan to Prevent New California Power Crisis Proposed
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Energy%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_energy&refer=topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_all&bt=ad_position1_energy&box=ad_box_all2&tag=energy&middle=ad_frame2_energy&s=APiWpmxYgUGxhbiB0
Snippit:
San Francisco, Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- California must encourage power conservation and add generators and transmission lines in order to prevent a repeat of the energy crisis of 2000- 2001, which cost the state as much as $45 billion, a study said. Many of the problems that led to soaring wholesale prices, blackouts and the insolvency of California's two largest electric utilities remain, the Public Policy Institute of California said in the study. California's power-transmission capacity is inadequate and the state hasn't any program to sway power customers to cut usage when prices rise, the report said. There is a ``critical need for the state to reach an early consensus on where it wants to go with its energy sector,'' Christopher Weare, a research fellow at the institute and the study's author, said in an interview. Without new investments in California's energy infrastructure, ``we are essentially recreating one of the major causes'' of the energy crisis. Without a clear plan in place for California's power markets, energy companies will be less willing to make investments in the state, such as the development of new power plants or construction of natural-gas pipelines to serve electricity generators, ``leading to future shortages,'' the 121-page study said.
Black Blade: I had pointed this out long ago. The state has done absolutely nothing to remedy the bungled reregulation and is once again facing the same prospect of higher costs and rolling blackouts. The state continues to rely on increasing amounts of energy for the high demand tech industry and a growing population. They may find that they can no longer put off building their energy infrastructure and the benevolence of other states to provide energy. The last energy crisis pushed the state's economy over the edge, the next one will be more devastating. They had better grit their teeth for round 2.
Trojan
(1/16/03; 01:03:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 94564)
I'm So Excited, I Can Hardly Wait "The Smoking Gun"
http://www.opinion.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2003/01/16/wirq116.xml&sSheet=/news/2003/01/16/ixnewstop.html
Yes, It's coming. Karl says so. This should be GOOD.
Remember the Carter/Reagan days. The October Surprises.
Well now we probably will get the January Surprise.
Most likely IMHO on January 28TH during The President's State Of The Union Speech.
Karl said so in so many words in the Linked Article above.
Read On... War On...
Are You Ready ? Tony...
Trojan
(1/16/03; 00:55:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 94563)
Here We Go, Alice "To The Moon" Jackie Gleason
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A61357-2003Jan15.html
Talk about low balling it.
Bush Budget Chief says 200 to 300 Billion Deficit is New Target.
To The Moon, Folks :-)
ElGordo
(1/16/03; 00:18:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 94562)
N Korea goes on Alert
http://www.washtimes.com/national/20030116-72466627.htm
North Korea's military has been alerted to prepare to increase its combat readiness, but U.S. intelligence officials said the notice does not indicate an increased danger of conflict.
The alert was sent to North Korean military units earlier this month and comes amid heightened tensions over Pyongyang's violation of nuclear arms agreements.
"The alert said 'get ready to get ready,'" according to one intelligence official.
Another official said the alert appeared similar to the heightened status of North Korea's million-member army prior to the 1991 Persian Gulf war. "The difference now is the nuclear problem," said another official.
_________
The long range missile they have can reach western US now.
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