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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 9/16/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Black Blade (09/16/02; 23:33:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 85250)
Singapore Arrests 21 Terror Suspects
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A24659-2002Sep16.html

Snippit:

SINGAPORE –– Singapore authorities have arrested 21 people on suspicion most of them belong to an al-Qaida-linked militant group that was plotting to blow up the U.S. Embassy, the government said Monday.

Black Blade: Unfinished business.



Black Blade (09/16/02; 23:29:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 85249)
Iraqi scientist says materials for nuclear bombs in hand
http://www.washtimes.com/world/20020916-28573872.htm

Snippit:

LONDON — Iraq is already using copies of pirated German equipment to process nuclear material for an atomic weapons program, according to a former Iraqi nuclear scientist who testified before the U.S. Senate this summer. Khidir Hamza, who led a section of the Iraqi nuclear bomb program before his defection in 1994, said the devices may not be discovered even if U.N. inspectors are allowed to return to Iraq. "The beauty of the present system is that the units are each very small, and in the four years since the inspectors left, they will have been concealed underground or in basements or buildings that outwardly seem normal," he said.

Black Blade: It has been suggested that Iraq was 4 to 7 years away from developing a nuclear device. The inspectors left 4 years ago. Hmmm…



Spartacus (09/16/02; 23:28:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 85248)
Change for U.S. Coins May Be Coming
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020909/ap_on_re_us/changing_change_2

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The maker of the nation's coins is looking for some change.

The U.S. Mint, responding to some gripes among experts and collectors that current coin designs are stagnant and boring, is exploring making over all U.S. coins, except for the quarter.

The idea of new coin designs, while still in its infancy, was discussed in a report by a Mint task force in late August. --


Black Blade (09/16/02; 23:06:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 85247)
U.S. Sales of Million-Dollar Homes Surge as Stock Market Falls
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Economies&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_econ&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_economies&bt=ad_position1_economies&middle=ad_frame2_economies&s=APYVX8RWAVS5TLiBT

Snippit:

New York, Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- In July, as stock prices tumbled to their lowest level in five years, America's wealthiest people went house hunting. With the Standard & Poor's 500 Index headed for its third- straight down year, rich Americans see real estate as a secure place to put their money, property brokers said. Housing is a key reason why the economy hasn't slipped back into recession, according to economists. ``The stock market has been a foe to some, but it's been a friend to real estate,'' said John Burns, president of Burns Real Estate Consulting Inc. in Irvine, California. Wealthy Americans are ``moving a greater part of their net worth into luxury housing,'' he said.

In Aspen, Colorado, Robert Ritchie, a real estate broker with Coates, Reid & Waldron, said he sold a 12,000-square-foot log home two weeks ago to a chief executive officer in his 50s who took money out of the stock market to make the purchase. Ritchie wouldn't name the CEO. ``All our buyers are saying that -- `I'm putting my money into hard assets,''' said Ritchie. ``These are the guys who really know what's happening, the guys who run our economy.'' After dropping 10 percent in 2000 and 13 percent in 2001, the S&P 500, the most widely followed benchmark for the U.S. stock market, is down a further 23 percent this year.

The rate at which home loans went into foreclosure rose to the highest level in almost half a century, to 0.40 percent of all mortgages, in the second quarter as job losses caused Americans to fall behind on payments, said the Mortgage Bankers Association of America. ``About a third of U.S. markets are overpriced,'' Burns said. ``That doesn't mean that we have a bubble that's going to crash next week. A bubble can go on for a long time.'' Boston `certainly'' shows signs of being in a price bubble, he said. New York is ``slightly overpriced,'' as are San Francisco and San Jose, California, Burns said. ``People who buy a $15 million beach house tend to have enough wealth to weather stock market reversals without having to change their lifestyle, although it's caused them to believe real estate is the only safe haven,'' said Saatchi.


Black Blade: Wealthy Americans bailing out of the stock market? That was expected even the corporate insiders have been selling and buying upscale real estate as they scramble to protect their diminishing wealth. Of course for the rest of us real estate purchases (especially at these prices and in a bloated bubble) are not a viable option, therefore we look at tried and true precious metals. After all how much more home(s) does one really need?



Black Blade (09/16/02; 22:53:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 85246)
Yen Falls vs Dollar on Speculation Japan May Sell Its Currency
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APYYHYBYlWWVuIEZh

Snippit:

New York, Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The yen fell to its lowest level in 12 weeks against the dollar on speculation Japan may sell its currency to boost growth in the world's second-largest economy. Japan's currency sank 1.3 percent Friday after Haruhiko Kuroda, the vice finance minister for international affairs, hinted the government may sell the currency to lift the nation's faltering export-led recovery. Today is a public holiday in Japan. ``Talk of Japanese efforts to weaken the yen hurts the currency short-term,'' said David Rossmiller, who oversees $3 billion as head of global fixed income at Deutsche Bank Private Banking. The yen may lose value to 126 per dollar in coming weeks, he said. Selling yen ``in a massive way'' would help reverse deflation and boost exports, Kuroda said. Japan, beset by its third recession in a decade, is trying to stimulate growth.


Black Blade: Actually the rumor is that they already are selling the yen and buying the US dollar. They have no choice as Japan is an export driven economy that imports raw materials or parts and assembles trinkets for export. The country's banking system is for all practical purposes "insolvent" while bankruptcy and unemployment is at all time highs. The end result of the Japanese selling of course is that the Japanese government is pissing away all that taxpayer cash. It is no wonder then that Gold buying by Japanese citizens is still quite strong.



Black Blade (09/16/02; 22:43:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 85245)
Dial D for Deflation
http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=1325469

Snippit:

The biggest risk facing the world economy may be deflation, not a double-dip

THE global economy continues to sputter. Yet most economists and policymakers do not expect a double-dip recession in America or elsewhere. This week Horst Köhler, the IMF's managing director, was the latest to play down the risk of recession. Yet this misses a crucial point: even if economies continue to expand over the next year, growth may not be strong enough to prevent the onset of deflation—falling prices—in several countries.

Deflation is much more harmful than inflation. Falling prices encourage consumers to postpone spending in the expectation of cheaper goods tomorrow; they also make it impossible to deliver negative real interest rates if these are needed to drag an economy out of recession. Most dangerous of all is a cocktail of deflation and debt. Deflation pushes up the real burden of debt, while the value of assets linked to that debt, such as house prices, may have to fall even more sharply in nominal terms to return to a fair level. This has already caused severe balance-sheet problems in Japan, and now America and Germany may be at risk: in both countries debts have surged to record levels.


Black Blade: "Interesting" article. Of course businesses do not have much pricing power now.



Black Blade (09/16/02; 22:37:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 85244)
U.S. Economy: Rise in Inventories Is Biggest in 1 1/2 Years
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APYX1hRN3VS5TLiBF

Snippit:

Washington, Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Inventories at U.S. factories, wholesalers and stores rose more in July than at any time in 1 1/2 years, as auto dealers boosted stockpiles to meet a surge in orders for cars and trucks.

Black Blade: Actually inventory build up is not good. We could see the "Bone Pile" grow more as inventories need to be worked off. It also suggests that inventory is not moving out the doors into the retailers very well. Aside from zero financing on autos and the housing bubble draining away cash from the equities markets, the consumer has reduced overall spending. We should see some disappointment with "earnings warning season". The second half recovery simply did not arrive.



Black Blade (09/16/02; 21:34:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 85243)
Market wrap Up - Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Snippit:

War Scenarios

What kind of war will this be? It could be a quick air strike with the battle over in a few days. Or it could be a long, drawn out occupation with rebuilding oil fields. Saddam could launch Scud missiles with nuclear material against Saudi and Kuwaiti oil fields. In the first scenario, oil prices would quickly fall as they did during the last Gulf War. In the second scenario, nuclear materials used against Saudi oil fields would send oil prices to unheard of levels and would keep them there for a long time. The truth of the matter is nobody knows. The tension and uncertainty in the oil markets have already raised oil prices 48% this year. Any time oil prices get over $30 a barrel, the economy contracts. That is what Morgan Stanley's chief economist, Stephen Roach, sees for the US economy. Roach feels that higher oil prices and a war with Iraq will send the US economy back into recession.


Black Blade: Saddam Hussein's response to allow weapons inspections was not really unexpected. The UN inspectors will reenter Iraq and be given the runaround again just like last time and the whole mess will rerun its course once again. Then the inspectors will leave. Then the whole mess will begin once again as gun-shy Europeans will again plead that the US give Iraq yet another chance. Europeans of course have become somewhat cowardly, especially the Germans and French after having experienced crushing and humiliating military defeats in the last century. It will be up to the US, Britain, Canada and Australia to push the case for military action against Iraq if Hussein and company renege on the latest weapons inspection program (which will happen of course). As long as enough people believe the unbelievable then the POG and POO will contract until the enemy is unmasked once again. This is no surprise so we just wait and prepare. In the meantime it does provide a short time frame to swoop down on bargains in precious metals and a few (very) select investments on the pullbacks. "Interesting Times"



G-khan (09/16/02; 21:31:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 85242)
Silver Swindle
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/UNID/TWOD-5E33NQ
NEW YORK -- Earlier this month it came to my attention that hallmarked Sterling silver jewellery (925 fineness) being hawked at major US retail outlets and even prominent jewellers is probably little better than stainless steel.
Newsletter publisher Bob Chapman ran a simple magnetic test on Sterling products in Texas earlier this month and reported that nearly everything clung to his magnet for dear life. Sterling silver doesn't do that. He reported the fraud to the managements of the stores who promised to take action, but were still selling counterfeit stuff days later. Evidently the stores think this is not a problem or their communication is really that bad. They're going to get an expensive surprise.

To my wife's misguided delight, I suggested we browse the wares at the local jewellery stores in one of those cheerless, windowless shrines to consumerism (Quaker Bridge Mall, Princeton). Suffice it to say she was less than impressed at my interest in silver and less so that it was for its magnetic rather than aesthetic qualities. In short, most of the stuff was magnetic.

Silver is King

sector (09/16/02; 21:25:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 85241)
200 SOVIET NUKES LOST IN UKRAINE
http://english.pravda.ru/main/2002/09/13/36519.html

11:14 2002-09-13

A nuke scandal is gathering steam

Pyotr Simonenko, the leader of the Ukrainian Communist Party released a sensational statement on Wednesday. In his words, there were 2400 nuclear warheads in Ukraine, although the export of only 2200 of them was officially documented. Simonenko claimed that nobody knows where 200 Soviet-era nukes in Ukraine are.

The official reaction followed the next day, but it was a rather weak one. Deputy chief of the Ukrainian Army Headquarters, Nikolay Goncharenko, declared that Simonenko's statement regarding the disappearance of the nuclear weapons from the territory of Ukraine was absolutely groundless. The high-ranking military official stated that all weapons of the trilateral agreement concerning the execution of the contract for strategic offensive arms had been handed over to Russia. Ok, but how come the leader of Ukrainian communists counted 200 nukes? It seems that the nuke scandal will continue.

Andrey Lubensky
PRAVDA.Ru
Kiev
Ukraine
+++++++++++++++

This is only ONE of the permutations just waiting for a lit match to ignite.

If there are missing nukes they are most certainly for sale to the highest bidders in the ME.

Perhaps THIS is the hidden agenda driving the Administration's Iraq war? The news of 200 lost nukes circulating all over the Middle East.

One sure way to win is to buy ant-acid, and sedative manufacturers.


sector (09/16/02; 21:15:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 85240)
@mikal The Threat Exists Here...not in the ME
You are right on about the dilution of military assets here in this Hemisphere
I live near to the CENTCOM HQ and they are moving out on what is called a "Test move".

IF Saddam gets fissile material then he faces massive retaliation in kind. If the media leaks are to be believed so Saddam won't use the "Bomb" he is supposed to be making.

The admin doesn't want to disarm Iraq they want Iraq's oil.

Imagine the nightmare scenario. We invade Baghdad with predictable civil and US losses, then the nukes [1,2 maybe 3] go off over HERE.

You be the press secretary. Well...he WOULD have used them on us even if we didn't invade. Uhmmm...sure we still have GREAT relations with Saudi Arabia especially since we will "rebuild" Iraq. Oh...the Iranian mobs...well they were always an Axis of Evil, card-carrying member.

The permutations are endless. The unintended consequences, labyrinthine.


kramrich (09/16/02; 20:58:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 85239)
Iraqi game of chess.
Reminds me of Hitler signing treaties with the countries around him right before he attacked them.

Hmmmm.

mikal (09/16/02; 19:56:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 85238)
@Sierra Madre
It wasn't long ago that the US armed forces were said to have critical shortages of spare parts and even training ammunition. Seems many of the best and brightest career enlisted men and officers were leaving by the droves as well. Clinton really wasn't much inspiration, pay was low, budgets shrunk. Ships were sent out understaffed and satellite, weapons and strategy secrets were given away to the Chinese or by spies. Now, do you think we are safer with the Central Command moved to the Middle East from Florida along with perhaps 3/4 of our latest armaments and many or most of what remains of our best fighting men?

sector (09/16/02; 19:38:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 85237)
White House Dismisses Iraqi Offer
http://highmarkfunds.stockpoint.com/highmarkfunds/newspaper.asp?Mode=news&Story=20020916/259w9255.xml
UNITED NATIONS, Sep 16, 2002 (AP Online via COMTEX) -- The White House dismissed an Iraqi offer Monday to let weapons inspectors return there unconditionally, calling it a tactical move that did not change the Bush administration's desire to remove Saddam Hussein.

The White House released a written statement that called the offer "a tactical step by Iraq in hopes of avoiding strong U.N. Security Council action."

"As such, it is a tactic that will fail," spokesman Scott McClellan said in the statement.

"This is not a matter of inspections. It is about disarmament of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction and the Iraqi regime's compliance with all other Security Council resolutions," McClellan said in Washington.

The administration still is demanding a decree from the United Nations that would make plain that the organization will enforce the 16 resolutions Saddam has broken, McClellan said. The statement did not mention the White House's previous insistence that Iraq allow inspectors to go anywhere in the country, at any time.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The President wants war. The President gets what he wants.

Until the Senate weighs in.

Pre election documents now suggest thet Iraq was a goal even before GWB was elected.

A night scene from the movie "Scarface" shows an illuminated blimp with the message "Tomorrow the World" beaming down on the drug kingpin Al Pachino. Parhaps the Prez imagines he can grasp the big brass ring after all.

The entertainment value is rising by the minute. Buy some extra VCR tapes.


Blackjack (09/16/02; 19:18:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 85236)
Text of Iraq letter to the UN
http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-2020170,00.html
snippit:

"The Government of the Republic of Iraq has based its decision concerning the return of inspectors on its desire to complete the implementation of the relevant Security Council resolutions and to remove any doubts that Iraq still possesses weapons of mass destruction. This decision is also based on your statement to the General Assembly on 12 September 2002 that the decision by the Government of the Republic of Iraq is the indispensable first step towards an assurance that Iraq no longer possesses weapons of mass destruction and, equally importantly, towards a comprehensive solution that includes the lifting of sanctions imposed in Iraq and the timely implementation of other provisions of the relevant Security Council resolutions, including resolution 687(1991). To this end, the Government of the Republic of Iraq is ready to discuss the practical arrangements necessary for the immediate resumption of inspections. "
______________
Hmmmm sounds like there is a condition. Sanctions have to be removed at some point. Lots of wiggle room. The inspectors will
probably head back (Saddam wants a shield) BUT...US will not
allow sanctions to be removed until we are satisfied. We are
never satisfied , because, what we want is Saddam out.
Back to square one.

R Powell (09/16/02; 19:09:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 85235)
Hussein's brilliant counter
I am NOT pro-war but it would seem that Hussein has everything to gain and nothing to lose by playing the waiting game. It was the perfect counter to Bush's throwing down the gauntlet in front of the United Nations saying act NOW or get out of the way (implying that any delay from the U.N. equated them with indecision and weakness).

Having said uninhibited inspections will be allowed and allowing exactly that may be two different things. After all, slick Willy, brought possible impeachment to a stand still by immersing everyone in trying to define "is". Now we'll try to define "uninhibited" and "inspection".

Does this mean "happy days" are here again for Wall Street. Perhaps a parade is in order with Abbey leading the way! Seriously, I'll be happy to see even tension filled peace rather than senseless bloodletting. Many said for years on end that the evil Communists should be destroyed at all costs ... and certainly NOW before they grew stronger!! Your children will never forgive you because you did not attack with every nuke at your disposal when you had the chance!! Now, it is too late. How could that horrendous and undenyable threat have passed without total nuclear war which so many were so sure was the one and only answer? Perhaps without the USSR and Hussein, the state department might locate another evil target for us to hate. It could happen?!
Peace
Rich

Truthcaster (09/16/02; 19:03:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 85234)
Very Good Post Sierra Madre
So let me get this straight. You think
that it's possible that our U.S. empire
might blow up the Golden Gate just to blame
it on iraq and start a war. Wow Have you ever
read the book "War Cycles Peace Cycles"
You Might be right that a ME war is needed to
help the U.S. markets out of a very deep dark hole.
I just hope that our Government it's that evil to
kill a ton of people just to get Iraq's oil.. Oh that's
right they have done it before. Thanks for your thoughts..
Truthcaster...

Blackjack (09/16/02; 18:54:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 85233)
Iraq wants to frustrate the US
After Bush's UN speech the world consensus was Iraq should
allow UN inspectors back in. Saudi changed their position on
the US right to use bases. Iraq saw world opinion turn against
them so they decided to allow inspectors back in.

This is a game just like it was in 1990. The US wants Saddam out.
Saddam wants to survive. Let the mind games begin.

Saddam cannot allow the inspectors to go anywhere they want.
The US will claim Saddam is not acting in good faith.

Saddam wants the inspectors in country as a shield against
any near term US attack. That buys Saddam time and frustrates
the US.

The war will probably start in January.

steady (09/16/02; 18:50:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 85232)
sierra on gold collapsing
give me a break gold loses about1% and its a collapse? hmmmm what would u call it if it lost 20-30% or even fourty percent? but a 1% decline is a collapse, id rather belive it has lost a lil momentum for the moment but we all know where its headed and not one single fundamental has changed now has it? with or withoutthe war gol dis going to appreciate from here and u know the reasons better than me so i wont bore u with them!

Sierra Madre (09/16/02; 18:44:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 85231)
Good grief, now what?

Saddam Hussein has caved. A huge expense has been incurred in a useless exercise. All those preparations,tens of billions spent, tens of thousands of men, fleets of ships, planes, missiles - and now, No War?
This cannot be. The U.S. empire wants the oil.
The Golden Gate will have to go, or maybe the Sears' tower.
Or some other ploy to precipitate the war.
In the meantime, November elections are here.
And the financial cancer continues to erode the guts of the U.S. economy.
Saddam can play with the inspectors for years, driving them to exasperation and always giving in at the last moment.

Gold has collapsed, understandably. One more opportunity to pick up some yellow stuff cheap.

Sierra





a nation of one (09/16/02; 18:27:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 85230)
To RobotGuy (9/16/02; 09:25:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 85194)

Sorry I missed your message. I tend to read-around on the Internet in the morning, then do some work, and come back in the evening.

Here are a couple of thoughts I had while reading your post.

It is my impression that those in control of our nation's economic condition perceive no interest in the U.S. being a wealthy nation. Instead, they prefer to be wealthy themselves. And they believe that this precludes everyone else. Whether they are right about this, the notion that a sound money currency interferes with their objectives seems to find everyday confirmation in such things as the processes of the Fed, the behavior of stock markets and bonds, the ease (or difficulty) with which private and corporate debt can be entered into, and the support which these varying circumstances and conditions are given in national publications and televised attitudes.

The idea that the U.S. government somehow works to enable the average U.S. citizen to prosper is false. Rather, it is more the case that laws passed by Congress, policies arrived at -and enacted- by the administration (and not just this one), and decisions made by the Supreme Court, all tend to focus our nation's efforts and resources toward achieving certain objectives held to be noble or desirable, but which, in objective reality are destructive of our people, profoundly misguided, and without support among those who recognize them for what they are, namely, noble-sounding, high-minded but unrealistic -and endearing but ruinous- babble cultivated and spouted in abject ignorance of ordinary reality and conducted in the absence of any genuine input or influence on the part of those who pay for it, live it, or die for it.

Gold has value as an asset. But as a money-currency, in order to avoid a degree of fluctuation that would render it undesirable as a currency, some way of determining its public value must be arrived at and agreed on. Governments have usually served this purpose. But a government that is corrupt, and whose practice is that of deceiving the people, cannot achieve this. People are incapable of attaining this goal on their own, without taking the dangerous risk of having to accept the fluctuation of their own private money holdings. Historically, however, some individuals have always been willing to do this. And governments, generally speaking, have presumed this willingness for themselves, in order to prevent such individuals having more power than those attempting to govern.

I could be wrong, but I think this is the stage we are entering now. The U.S. government has lost -or is beginning to lose- its support among small but significant factions of the people, and to find itself without the moral or ethical base that it needs to govern. During the coming decades, I expect that this will worsen. I should say that I have no intention of playing any part in such events. But the signs are obvious to anyone not burdened with having to believe the commonly accepted explanation. In this circumstance, it only makes sense that false things will fall away, and that real things will retain true value. So far, gold is the only thing I consistently think of that fits this eventuality.

The next step, it seems to me, is that private individuals may begin to find ways in which gold can be used to meet private obligations without the government's involvement. Again, I should make it clear that I have no intention of bringing this about, or of advising others to do it. I only point out what is obvious; that if people started using gold as a money-currency, no one could stop them.


Truthcaster (09/16/02; 18:08:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 85229)
Take a look at oil and gold futures..
Http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
I hope this link works it's the first time at trying this
but it shows all futures for metals grains and oils
as well as the S&P's..

Truthcaster (09/16/02; 17:58:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 85228)
Slivercolltor
Hi Slivercolltor-
Yes the news I got was on the NBC nightly news
and it was just breaking. If it will hold water is another story. I just noticed that when the story hit the headlines
that kitco showed a sharp drop in the price of gold. And
that the S&P's shot up right after that. And this was
about an hour or so ago. I guess will have to wait and
see... Truthcaster.. Gold spot down now 2.90 via Kitco.com

Boxman (09/16/02; 17:56:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 85227)
Silvercollecter--late breaking news
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BBB3E5EA0%2DE854%2D4616%2D85D0%2D037E960124EA%7D&siteid=mktw
Do we trust Saddam, or is he simply delaying?

silvercollector (09/16/02; 17:26:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 85226)
Truthcaster
I remain suspicious, I checked several energy stocks and near all were up handsomely today, several closing very strongly. Unless the news is breaking in the last couple hours I put little credence on the news.

R Powell (09/16/02; 17:07:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 85225)
Government disposals of silver
I can add some info and numbers from the 2002 Silver Survey to clarify some of the information in Black Blades 85212 linked article.

The Survey estimates government disposals for year 2001 at 25 million ounces including sales by China and the U.S. coin program. However, in the statistical numbers an additional 15 million are added coming from "Net exports from transitional economies".

The Survey also states that the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) was the sole buying and selling agent and, as such, a market maker, until deregulation in 2000. With deregulation came the ability to import metal concentrates for refinement. This increased both imports and exports. Further complicating the picture was the new-found ability (through deregulation) of Kodak to import silver nitrates to meet their silver needs for photographic companies (in China) that Kodak bought in the 1990s. This displaced their old source of domestic silver which was then exported and is now shown as "government disposals". Often the shorts point to this as an unlimited dishoarding from China. In reality, China is now in the recycling and smelting business.

"Thus, while it may have appeared that the flow of metal from "official" Chinese sources had increased, in reality it was the flow of metal from many different participants that had shifted."
page 9 Silver Survey 2002

However, not all that I've read so far is good news. Industrial demand for year 2001 was down. This seems logical in keeping with the recession. However, even with demand down the Survey lists a deficit of 83.8 million ounces and with coinage demand added, a deficit of 92.8 million ounces (page 10). If it seems that many different totals are cited as the total deficit, I'll agree. The numbers are sometimes too finely catagorized with overall totals hard to find and sometimes contradicted in other tables. I've also found that the remaining available stores are the hardest number to pin down. This is probably so as no one other than the Almighty, Herself, has that piece of information. Just as the USDA sometimes does with year end carryover stock crop numbers, I think existing silver stock numbers are sometimes retroactively increased at certain intervals. This might be necessary to make sense of the numbers when the old numbers indicate that there is no more, but the market says otherwise. ??? Another piece of the puzzle. I'm betting that this situation can't go on forever or (imho) even another year. However, I've thought this for many years!
Thoughts?
Rich

Truthcaster (09/16/02; 16:56:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 85224)
NBC's Report on Iraq
Tonight NBC news is reporting that Iraq will
allow UN weapons inspectors to inspect without
any restrictions. This has caused a nice rise in
the S&P's for tomorrow and a fall in spot gold as I speak
with Price of oil heading lower too. Things should get
very interesting for tomorrows trade. Looks like gold
and oil are going to get crushed... Not Good....
Just when I thought JPM might hit 20.. Rats....


Gandalf the White (09/16/02; 16:52:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 85223)
WELCOME Sir Sunsetter !!! ANOTHER former "Lurker" speaks out !
Looks like your early case of GOLDFEVER was never in total remission ! <;-)
I too have had that "infection" since I was a young student.
Pleased to have you at the Forum's TABLEROUND.
<;-)

slingshot (09/16/02; 16:32:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 85222)
Siege Engine
Gold above $300.00
Gandalf stood between DRACO and Smaug and did not fully understand what Stephen the Great had just told him.
Stephen called for the foreman of the foundry and gave instructions. In a few minutes workmen were rolling the two cannon to a terrace which protruded from the side of the mountain. When the guns were in place, more men came onto the platform. An oriental man came to Gandalf carrying a container. When he opened it he showed it to Gandalf and then spread a Black Powder on the floor in front of him. Stephen said to Gandalf, This Powder will change the world. He nodded to the man and he place a torch to the powder. WHOOOOSH, fire and smoke engulfed the terrace. Gandalf stood his ground,blinded momentarily by the flash. Gandalf had seen displays like this one before. Stephen would show him another use of the powder.

Load the Cannons, he proclaimed. At once the gun crews started the preparations and when finished stood beside DRACO and Smaug awaiting the next order.

Stephen then asked Gandalf to come to the edge and look at the valley below. Two trees in the open at some distance from them. Stephen told the gun crews that they were the targets. They adjusted the guns to the proper elevation and again they stood at the ready.

Gandalf, all you have to do is yell Fire, Said Stephen the Great. Turning to the men Gandalf yelled FIRE. A torch was laid to the ends of both cannons and they roared to life.

BOOM! BOOM!, Spitting fire and smoke like the dragons they were named after. He heard a whistling sound as two objects took flight and in seconds struck the trees. A second explosion brought both to the ground.

Gandalf turned to Stephen the Great and said, I am afraid the ways of the Wizard will soon disappear from this world and I find that things man creates can be use for both good and evil. Our foe is strong and we must take the battle to him on his own ground. I chose to use these cannon but ask their making be known only to you and their creators.
Also that they be returned to the Valley of Clouds in the end.

Stephen the Great was handed a message on a piece of paper.

The caravan is on the move ,Gandalf.




Socrates964 (09/16/02; 15:56:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 85221)
Belgian
A number of observations:

-my feeling on 1990 was that a) the US shifted a good portion of the bill for Kuwait onto the Saudis, b) they continued to subscribe to the theory of balance - that given the lack of a suitable alternative, better to keep Saddam and the ayatollahs at each other's throats, c) potential of Central Asian oil wasn't so clear at the time so they felt a need to tread more carefully in the Persian Gulf.

I agree that no manufacturing nation wants the oil price to rocket. China included. I'm sure that the Chinese would like nothing more than for the current status quo to be prolonged, allowing them to gradually drain off the West's wealth and influence.

The point is, however, that there are such huge imbalances in the Western financial system that something has to give. This seems most likely to be the greenback. I'm not an expert on oil, but if the dollar depreciates, and as in the early 70s, OPEC pushes for a price rise, can the US (assuming it can take over the Iraqi oilfields) pump enough to offset attempts by other producers to force prices higher in nominal terms?

I have read a lot of articles on this point - what intrigues me is that they tend to overlook the other side of the analysis - that probably the most potent weapon that the US has against China is recession.

If the US retreats into recession and pushes imports out of reach, it will probably do far more damage to China (and Europe) than by trying to take over the ME.

If oil goes to $100, OPEC will eventually stiff itself because it will then become profitable to produce synthetic oil. The problem is that you need a price shock to get the necessary capital spending.

If the Euro goes to $1.50, then the political outcry from service workers/exporters in countries such as France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Ireland etc., will be deafening and could easily lead to a seismic shift in Europolitics (to the populist right). You may ridicule me on this point, and I very much hope that I'm proved wrong, but I see major political turbulence as the fallout from an overvalued euro, which will have devastating effects on the economy of Euroland.

Just like in the 1980s when everyone assumed that the Asian tigers would take over the world, I can see the reputation of the US collapsing but then arising phoenix-like from the ashes in 5-10 years time.

The point is, though, that to turn the tables on a 5-10 year view, the US must first bite the bullet. No signs of this as yet, which is why the gold story is still intact and will probably play out according to plan.

VanRip (09/16/02; 15:48:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 85220)
Price Guessing Contest
Just a short note to give many thanks to MK and Gandolf for that great contest. I was a runnerup, missing by .20. Amazing to see so many participate. Though my wife urged me to wait a few more days to "narrow the odds," as she put it, I nevertheless entered on the 5th, a good week before the close. Looks like there's hope for us early guessers.

VanRip (09/16/02; 15:42:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 85219)
Belgian
I also have been wondering why Iraqi oil wasn't grabbed in 1990. A few more days of the war and Daddy Bush could have had it all. And that might even have included Kuwaiti oil, what with so much of their field in a shambles. The oil part grab might have been easy, certainly inexpensive, especially when compared with war costs being talked about today

Bush was an oil man. It's hard to believe that all that is being said now about ME oil wasn't known and thought about ten years ago, what with Kissinger and heavyweight oil men having Bush's ear.

I suspect there's more to Saddam's possession or near possession of WMD, the terrorist movement and the political problems in the area than meets the eye.





Belgian (09/16/02; 14:35:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 85218)
Sierra Madre / Socrates
Great dialogue about China and ME-oil, dear Knights. I'm enjoying it. Thanks.

It becomes clearer by the day that the US's decision to go and police the ME-oil reserves, will postfactum, be highly probable, considered as a major mistake. But consider the following. Today we still operate with a POO = 28$ (war premium included). If the US and parts of Euroland can secure the flow of cheap desert oil (cost=2$) at a lower price, why would the Chinese (India/Russia/Latinam) object to that. The US and Euroland need cheap Chinese labor/products, to continue our lifestyles. Why should China per sé be isolated and burdened with high POO ? Oil needs a growing economy and vice versa.

Why should one risk his neck by pressing China with whatever ? China is big enough for not having territorial expansion dreams as long as it can trade freely. Pragmatism !

If the US succeeds in stabilizing the ME with the occupation of Iraq (west friendly regime), Euroland (and Russia) might add energy to democratise islamic oil economy.
All depends on how high the initial retaliation terror will be. But Ireland and the UK lived with terror for more than 20 years ! This world is indeed about power but also a very pragmatic one, over blatant in-consequences.

Yes, the ME wants a POO=144$, but in what kind of dollar (devaluated) and in what kind of wreckaged global economy ?

The initial WOT rhetoric was about a long and extensive war as yet already was known that an Iraqi occupation would be a guarantee for more terror. One act of terror in Euroland and there is an alliance, again !

I decoded the past nuke rhetoric as a warning that the US was even prepared to use nuclear weapons to obtain the amount of control it desired on cheap oil.
US troops are now stationed on so many different spots around this globe, that no one doubts that this time, the US means serious business.
I still can't figure out why it didn't happen in 1990 ?
Did the US had a Saudi guarantee that cheap oil would be delivered if Iraq be left alone ? And that they changed their mind afterwards under Laden like pressures ?

China hasn't been anticipating anything to my knowledge during the past 10 years ? Therefore China doesn't show signs of feeling threathened by oil-pressure. As long as POO doesn't go beyond 30$/35$ of course.

Anyway, oil-fever will NOT calm down anymore. The era of cheap oil is over. Only question remains how expensive it will be made and what is the maximum pressure that a prosperous western economy can handle.
We will watch this together as our mentor used to say.

Hoi, Sir Sunsetter. Glad to hear that this time you're not ignoring your gut !



Waverider (09/16/02; 14:17:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 85217)
DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
Thanks Black Blade!

Trurl (09/16/02; 14:02:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 85216)
Galearis and others re: magnetic silver
I've been following the onfolding story about finding magnetic silver, and would like to add this caution:

A coin with 8.33% Nickel will be weakly influenced by a magnetic field. Just drill a hole in a current US dime or quarter and suspend it by a thread. When a strong horseshoe magnet is drawn past the coin, it will move. A current US Nickel is 25% nickel, so those are weakly attracted also.

I understand that some of the Canadian minor coins were almost pure nickel in some recent years, but current one are mostely steel?

The point is, a chain could be sterling, and still 7.5% Nickel. That much nickel would be enough to attract a strong magnet.

I have a large magnetron type magnet which works well for this. A Toy horseshoe magnet doesn't work nearly as well.

An assay of a suspect chain would be interesting.

darkhorse (09/16/02; 13:50:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 85215)
re: China discussion
Socrates: your point of "...the Chinese now have fingers in lots of different pies." It should also be remembered that the Chinese seem to have had, uh, assistance from, let's say an elevated level for several years. I don't like thinking about the technology developed over here that may, literally and figuratively, darken our door steps in a time of conflict.

Sierra: your "...the U.S. apparently wants to sit on the M.E. oil (place its military in control there) and then dictate the terms to China." I really don't see how this would/could even be considered a possibility. It seems conventional wisdom says that if we want to go to the ME, throw out a government or two and take control of the oil, that's what's gonna happen and nobody else should/will have anything to say about it. I'm pretty sure the rest of the world needs oil, and I'm pretty sure the bigger kids on the block (or a whole gang of 'em somewhere on that block) are gonna have something to say if we try to impose our will on anybody. Putting our troops "in charge" of the oil and dictating terms is no better (and probably worse to the rest of the world) than what OPEC is doing now.

I'm not trying to belittle anyone's ideas, I learn more from y'all than what I could possibly contribute. I worry, tho, that our heads are in the sand re: what the consequences of our seemingly inevitable ME actions are going to be. We may be the only remaining "superpower" according to the press, but reality is gonna write a whole different chapter to that book.





sector (09/16/02; 13:28:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 85214)
U.S. Economy: Rise in Inventories Is Biggest in 1 1/2 Years
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Economies&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_econ&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_economies&bt=ad_position1_economies&middle=ad_frame2_economies&s=APYX1hRN3VS5TLiBF
09/16 11:15

By Siobhan Hughes
Washington, Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Inventories at U.S. factories, wholesalers and stores rose more in July than at any time in 1 1/2 years, as auto dealers boosted stockpiles to meet a surge in orders for cars and trucks.

The 0.4 percent increase in inventories was the strongest since November 2000 and followed a 0.3 percent gain in June, the Commerce Department said. Sales at U.S. businesses jumped 1.2 percent, four times the prior month's gain and the largest rise since April.

Stockpiles have increased for three straight months, the longest stretch since June 1998 through January 2001, just before the economy's record expansion ended and recession began in March 2001. General Motors Corp. is raising production and replenishing inventories because consumers keep buying cars and trucks.

``If sales continue to expand and if businesses are reassured that this will be sustained, then they might be willing to stock up'' and strengthen the economy's rebound, said Jade Zelnik, chief economist at Greenwich Capital Markets Inc. in Greenwich, Connecticut.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
In an overcapacity recession, which we have had for two years, inventory growth is BAD. It reveals that demand is not rising but falling...probably into a "double dip" recession...To be followed by a very long "bounce-along-the-bottom" recession

The local Ford/Mercury dealer has a ocean of big v-8 sedans he needs more like a hole in the head.

+++++++++++++

piz perhaps Treasury always HAD the gold certs but the Fed report says the Fed had them in 2001. The final answer will be seen with the 2002 Fed AR.

I'm always suspicious of new items in the Treasury FMS based upon past performance.


Pizz (09/16/02; 13:04:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 85213)
Sector
On the gold certificates. I'm not reading it that way. It appears to me that past policy has been that ALL the treasury gold was certificated to the FED, therefore no need for disclosure. They could have I guess, but why? If I'm not mistaken, that's how the Fed started - taking gold certificates as collateral for federal reserve notes issued to the Treasury's account.

The only reason they noted it in the July report was because it now doesn't equal all the gold by the 100,000 oz they demonitized on 7-9. Thru their footnote, they imply that all but 100,000 oz are monitized, and the only way they can due that is thru the FED. The Fed still has the majority of the certicates.

From an accounting standpoint, if they gave you a balance sheet, it would now show all the gold as assets, the disclosed certificates as liabilities (to the Fed for currency) and now they would show 100,000 oz at 42 and change as equity (free and clear gold with no liabilities against it.

It's a confusing report, but I'm pretty sure I'm correct.

Pizz

Black Blade (09/16/02; 13:04:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 85212)
De-Regulation Of Gold And Silver Markets In China Have Major Implications For Rest Of World.
http://www.minesite.com/archives/features_archive/2002/Sept-2002/china160902.htm

Snippit:

Deregulation in China has not only set its gold industry on a course of global growth, it has also stimulated consumption of silver. At the first Annual China Silver Conference
Paul Bateman, executive director of the Silver Institute, commented that silver was treated in China as a kind of special commodity before market liberalisation in January 2000. Trade was under the control of the People's Bank of China, as was gold. That has all changed and Zhou Juqiu, deputy director of the China Nonferrous Metal Industry Association, quoted statistics as saying that annual silver consumption now stands at around 31 million ounces in China. This compares with a world total of 863.6 million last year. Supply from all sources including recycling left a deficit of 89.4 million ounces according to GFMS and as with a number of other metals and minerals the Chinese government holds the whip hand as it accounts for 75 per cent of the world's total official stock sales.

The GFMS has stuck its neck out and reckons that China simply does not have the capacity to supply the silver market forever at the kind of levels seen over the past three years. Time will tell, but it is a fact that the Chinese, under Communism, liked to have a strong grip on any market in which they were involved. It is impossible to forecast whether this policy will continue under de-regulation, but the odds are that it will. In that case the future for bullion could be very interesting and Chancellor Brown and bankers JP Morgan, to name but two, should have a long, hard, think about it.


Black Blade: An interesting snippit from an article about precious metals trade liberalization in China.



Aristotle (09/16/02; 12:58:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 85211)
Fed/Treasury Gold Certificates
Sector, I think maybe there's a disconnect in your understanding of the mechanics of Gold Cert facility, or else I've entirely missed your point about the Treasury "taking delivery" of the certs. What are you thinking here? What are you trying to say or imply?

--- Ari

Socrates964 (09/16/02; 12:58:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 85210)
Sierra
Sorry, missed out Pt 4.

4. Given the nature of its neighbours, I would have thought it almost impossible to isolate China geographically, except perhaps, with regard to natural gas.

Socrates964 (09/16/02; 12:52:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 85209)
(No Subject)
Not much to add, except:

1. Let's assume US can throw a cordon sanitaire around ME/Central Asia to keep out Chinese. What will prevent the Chinese from buying through a front country, or from buying from Venezuela/Nigeria/Russia/et al.

2. Given that you can't keep China out of international markets - how does the US operate a two-tier price system for oil so that the Chinese have to pay over the odds while the West gets cheap oil. I can't see how myself.

3. China is doing a growing volume of business in S America - e.g. sourcing iron ore from Peru - also see growing number of Brazilian cos. setting up JVs there - e.g. Marcopolo to make bus bodies. People forget that US accounts for less than 25% of world GDP. Granted, the US has satellite countries like Mexico which live and die by their trade balance with the US, but take my country, Brazil - US trade (exports plus imports) is about 3% (three per cent) of Brazilian GDP. Not a big deal. Is the US going to invade Brazil if Petrobras sets up a purchasing JV with the Chinese state oil company, or impose trade sanctions and boost Brazilian-Chinese trade even more.

5. The US has very few reliable military partners and can't stand a high body bag count.

6. In general, I just think that the kind of results that the US supposedly hopes to obtain from its military might are out of all proportion to the degree of pressure that it could conceivably apply. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that you would need a full-scale mobilization on the lines of WWII.

sector (09/16/02; 12:45:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 85208)
LBMA Gold and Silver Volume Reports fro August
Gold is the 2nd lowest and Silver is the lowest since 1997
Gold daily average volume in millions of Troy ounces = 17.1 million ounces
Silver daily average volume in millions of Troy ounces = 66.2 million ounces

These numbers continue to confirm that sellers of precious metals are refusing to part with their assets at today's artificially suppressed prices.

Moreover, the silver numbers point to a Q1 2003 exhaustion of LBMA silver activity if the strong linear regression trend continues to fall as it is.

Blackjack (09/16/02; 12:42:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 85207)
Some factors in Golds favor
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BC4B843F7%2DC69B%2D43CD%2DB2AA%2D905459E312D5%7D&siteid=mktw
"There are an uncommon number of safe-haven factors working in gold's favor right now, including a potential stock market crash (maybe), a further plunge in the dollar (likely) and war with Iraq (almost assured)," says Brien Lundin, editor of the 31-year-old Gold Newsletter Alert and organizer of the New Orleans Investment Conference 2002.

* "An Iraqi war is almost surely going to drive oil into a (higher price) spike," says Ian McAvity, editor of Deliberations on World Markets newsletter, which is in its 30th year. "Flooding the market with oil from captured Iraqi oilfields seems a pipedream that totally ignores risks of destabilizing Saudi Arabia other regional sources."

* "While initial action in Gulf War II may be taken by the U.S., we expect a similar price spike (in gold) as tensions heat up, but this time the fear will not be Saddam's army, but his possible early use of chemical weapons," says John C. Doody, editor of Gold Stock Analyst.

* "This Iraq attack would be different in that there are already festering wars in the Middle East, Kashmir and Chechnya," says James Dines at The Dines Letter, which has been reporting on financial markets since 1961. "Amr Moussa, secretary general of the Arab League, issued a chilling warning that an American assault on Iraq would 'open the gates of hell in the Middle East because you could never tell the results.'"

* "Gold responds to any event that affects the quality of national currencies," says James Turk, editor of Freemarket Gold & Money Report. "So it's not the war per se that gold responds to, but what a war would mean to the dollar. Given that gold is so cheap and undervalued, I don't see any war premium."


Almost off the radar screen of Wall Street is the amazing rally in a number of commodities, including wheat, sugar and corn. Commodity prices, as measured by the Commodity Research Bureau's benchmark gauge of about 20 products (XX:1864498: news, chart, profile), has gained almost 15 percent this year after years of torpor. Higher prices for hard assets, be they agricultural, metal or energy-linked, is usually a sign of looming turmoil in financial markets. See: Hard Assets Send Signals.

Gold, at the same time, has become the second-strongest investment class of the year, after Treasury bonds. At noon ET Monday, the spot price of gold was up $1 to $317.60 an ounce. Many forecasters say they expect the gold price to reach $330 an ounce this year (its high thus far in 2002) and then launch a rally into the $350 range.
____________
Pay attention to those commodity prices!

sector (09/16/02; 12:35:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 85206)
@pizz Point taken on the Treas Gold Certs
But my main concern is...
...that the Federal Reserve owned those certificates according to the Fed's 2001 Annual Report. So sometime between that report and the July appearance of the FMS note the Treasury took delivery of the certs for all the US gold stock.

Perhaps the fed decided now was the time to get rid of some monthly paperwork?

kasperjack (09/16/02; 12:30:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 85205)
Early Signs Of Falling Gold Production
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/reports/tbd/Early.pdf
Pdf format. Drats. gold fields mineral services

Pizz (9/16/02; 11:57:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 85204)
Sector - Re Treasury gold Certificates
I looked at the footnotes this weekend. It would appear to me that the treasury does the administrative work regarding activity in these certificates, and they elected to demonitise 100,000 oz. so they only have to process certificates when the total activity exceeds 100,000 oz.

Kind of like having a petty cash fund instead of cutting a check everytime you need a few bucks for sundry expenses.

My guess is that it is used for the mint for allocations of Treasury gold for Gold Eagle production. It also makes sense when you think about it, cause if all the treasury gold has been certificized to the Fed, every time the mint sold a few thousand oz, they would have to process the certificates (in effect, demonitizing as gold eagles were sold (probably daily).

I don't think there is any smoking gun here at all.

Pizz



Sierra Madre (9/16/02; 11:49:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 85203)
Socrates964 - I think the subject is interesting, tell me more...

What I am saying is not that the U.S. would cut-off China's access to M.E.

What I am thinking and trying to express, is that the U.S. apparently wants to sit on the M.E. oil (place its military in control there) and then dictate the terms to China.

Who controls M.E. and Central Asian oil, will control China; not choke it off from access to oil, but dictate the terms under which China gets the oil. That is equivalent to fundamental control of China - and the only way China can be controlled, it seems to me.

In the book "Anglo American Oil Wars", written under the auspices of Executive Intelligence Review (EIR) run by Lyndon Larouche, the point is made that WWI has as an objective, the cut-off German access to M.E. oil via Balkan and Turkey. At that time, it WAS a cut-off of oil, as war broke out between Germany and the allied powers.

The present scenario tries to avoid war with China, and simply control the basic oil by dictating the terms - prices, quantities and conditions - under which China will get the oil.

The U.S./British axis does not want the M.E. states from developing their own commercial relations with China, and the only way to do this, is via a military intervention which places U.S. military in the region, permanently. That is what I am saying.

Yes, other raw materials are available all over the world. But the oil is the crucial raw material.

But, please elaborate further on your views!

Sierra

Socrates964 (9/16/02; 11:34:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 85202)
Sierra
Not an expert on Chinese history, but I note that the Chinese have never coveted a huge land empire outside the Middle Kingdom, preferring to trade. If you're a non-aligned country, who will you prefer to do business with? a belligerent US which is probably bluffing due to overstretched resources or a business as usual China. There are too many examples around the globe of countries that have got into bed with Uncle Sam and have seen little reward for their trouble (e.g. Argentina, Turkey).

It may well be that the US believes it can cut off China from raw materials by sheer coercion, but this is a pre-1945 military strategy that no longer works and is, IMHO, incompatible with the continuation of a consumer-based society and the corporate profits that accrue from it.

The US/Israel have shown the ME that countries with limited military resources can still cause havoc through terrorism because mass capitalism needs a high level of security in order to function efficiently. the kind of action you suggest is tantamount to saying to the Chinese "see if you can do better than the bin Ladens of this world at shafting our society/economy". Bin Laden couldn't put together an army of 100,000 trained hackers to disrupt the US' IT network - I imagine the Red Army probably could and probably has.

The other point is that the Chinese now have fingers in lots of different pies - e.g. sourcing a growing quantity of raw materials from South America. Keeping them out of the ME is no longer enough.




Sierra Madre (9/16/02; 11:09:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 85201)
Black Blade: the Gold Dollar Failure...(your earlier post)
First we had that "Gold-en" Dollar, the Sacagawea, shiny yellow color worthy of a Disneyland token coin - a bronze slug, as you said.

And now, we have magnetic "sterling silver". A crock indeed!

Falsification of everything - look around you, and you see falsification is the touchstone of our era.

Sierra

Sierra Madre (9/16/02; 10:57:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 85200)
Welcome SunSetter!
It's not too late to start!

Don't lose any time! Present price of gold is, comparatively speaking (after inflation) as good as $35/oz was in the 70's. Wonderful opportunity for you.

Contact the host of this forum, a.s.a.p.

Again, welcome to this forum

Sierra

Sierra Madre (9/16/02; 10:51:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 85199)
Socrates: your post 85183 earlier on China/M.E. axis
It seems to me you are right. The main obstacle to world hegemony for the American Empire (run from Jerusalem) is China, and only China.

China produces goods - and the American consumer knows that so well. Ditto the rest of the world, inundated with Chinese goods. China has finally woken up - what Napoleon feared when he said, "Let the Chinese tiger sleep!".

The Chinese are, according to some studies, the world's most intelligent people. They have a vast potential productive power, over and above their present power. But, it requires oil. OIL and more OIL.

The oil is in the M.E. and Central Asia.

The U.S. has lost its productive power. It still has a military superiority over any other adversary in the world.

My opinion: The U.S. must take the M.E. by military force, in order to deprive China of the opportunity of BUYING, WITH PRODUCTS, the M.E. oil. China could do that, the U.S. could not.

The coming war in the M.E. is not about getting oil for the U.S.: it is about MILITARY control of the oil which China needs and could buy, when products, not dollars, begin to count. The only way to check China in the present century.

Sierra

SunSetter (9/16/02; 10:32:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 85198)
6 MONTH LURKER ACTIVATED
http://www.house.gov/paul/congrec/congrec2002/cr091002b.htm
Hello All,
I have read many great ideas/opinions in this discussion forum the past 6 mos and have decided to become a bit more active. Before I share how I got interested in GOLD, I must mention the link above.(I did a search back to September 10th and didn't see it posted.) No party pushing intended, just a good read from a sane, elected official.

How I Got into GOLD
Back in the early 70's (Au ~= 35USD/oz), something was eating at me to do something better with my hard earned fiat money from cutting the neighborhood lawns (summer), raking leaves (fall) and shoveling snow (winter). For some reason, gold kept popping into my grade school brain and I wanted some. I wanted all I could buy with my 7K USD in savings. I went to my mentor, my father, and unfortunately he did not support my desire for Au. I would later find, he didn't know the first thing about gold or where we could buy it. I never did buy any gold back then even after Nixon cut the cord and things exploded.

Today, I am getting that same (eating at me) feeling I had back then to buy gold. I am currently not a holder, but I will not ignore my gut again. Here's to hoping I may add that single idea to this forum that will help enlighten understanding or challenge misunderstanding.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (9/16/02; 09:47:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 85197)
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