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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 4/16/2001 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Black Blade (04/16/01; 23:01:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 52008) Fund buying boosts NY precious metals in thin trade http://www.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CoTPUqb9DtJe2ntu0mZC1&FQ=p%25rco%20and%20c%25%25frx Snippit:NEW YORK, April 16 (Reuters) - Precious metals rose sharply in holiday-thinned New York futures trade Monday, as funds reversed out of short gold positions and hoisted platinum closer to price parity with sister-autocatalyst palladium.Black Blade: Funny thing is no one ever mentions the names of these so-called "Funds." Nice move today in gold (+$3.20). Also just heard Jack Kemp in a FOX interview with Brit Hume mention a litany of problems in the economy and one point he made was the "low gold price." Platinum id poised to rise with extremely high lease rates. Palladium is stabilized lower as most speculators were washed out when the TOCOM and NYMEX defaulted (actually raised margins and changed exchange rules). The fundamental problem is the same. Russia hasn't made any significant deliveries as they simply don't have any stockpiles left. The only fundamental reason for a lower PGM price is that the economy is about to go into its Death Spiral and since Pd is more of a industrial metal than Pt, it is reasonable that the price should stabilize or even could drop as auto manufacturers close up shop. Ford, GM, and Chrysler-Benz are in serious trouble with sharply lower sales. Black Blade (04/16/01; 22:43:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 52007) Tariff May Limit Flow of Natural Gas http://www.latimes.com/news/state/20010416/t000032317.html Snippit:Two projects aimed at boosting the capacity of California's natural gas delivery network are stalled by a little-known tariff that power companies would have to pay to use the new pipelines. But amid California's energy crisis, some officials contend that the tariff is preventing the state from boosting pipeline capacity at a time when more natural gas is desperately needed to fuel power plants.Black Blade: The Grasshoppers just never learn. With the state building all these new gas-fired plants, the question is, where are they going to get the gas?" They never took responsibility for this mess that they created and now it has come home. "…and they danced, sang, and played all summer…"Don't be a Grasshopper, be an Ant and get prepared. A little stash of PMs could salvage a portfolio massacre. Black Blade (04/16/01; 22:25:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 52006) UK oil refinery blast hurts two and hits market http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010416/l17476941_2.html Snippit:LONDON, April 17 (Reuters) - U.S. oil firm Conoco (NYSE:COCa ) sought on Tuesday to calm market jitters about supplies after an explosion ripped through its biggest European refinery, injuring two people and all but closing the plant down. Black Blade: The first indications are that the blast occurred in the LNG plant. Petroleum prices rose on the news. The refinery capacity issue is so sensitive that an explosion at a refinery in Northern England can move the entire market. It should be noted that many refineries did forego maintenance in order to reap higher profits with higher oil prices, and this could lead to more such "incidents." Gas prices are expected to spike this summer. It could get "interesting." Black Blade (04/16/01; 22:17:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 52005) Calif energy crisis could take extra 1.5 pct of incomes http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010416/n1670579.html Snippit:NEW YORK, April 16 (Reuters) - Increases in electricity and natural gas prices could add up to an extra 1.5 percent of average household income in California during the next year and create more of a drag on the slowing economy, the Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition on Monday. An analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, released Friday, estimates the average California household will have to spend an extra $450 on gas and electricity bills during the next year, as well as $300 more to cover higher prices for goods and services as producers pass along rising energy costs, the report said.Black Blade: And it's going to go much higher! There's an energy crunch of epic proportions that will rock the US economy to its very core. Black Blade (04/16/01; 22:01:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 52004) Another energy problem brewing in U.S. heating bills http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010416/n16518227.html Snippit:CHICAGO, April 16 (Reuters) - Another energy problem is brewing in the U.S. Midwest where thousands of people face the prospect of having their home heating service shut off because they did not pay rising winter heating bills. The hangover from rising home heating bills is just the latest in a string of energy woes hitting the U.S., from rising gasoline prices at the pump to California's electricity shortage. Earlier this month his group, which represents state directors of low-income home energy assistance programs, reported that as many as 3.6 million families in 18 states as well as the District of Columbia face losing energy service because they have not been able to keep up with skyrocketing bills. Black Blade: Higher energy rates are now hitting consumers directly. Jesse Jackson plans to lead protests in Chicago against planned shutoffs by Peoples Energy. This is just another domino to fall in the cascading sequence of energy rates that continue to slam the economy into the dirt. The era of "cheap energy" is over. The dominoes will fall faster going forward. Monday's cold weather stopped Xcel Energy Inc. (NYSE:XEL) from commencing cut-offs in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Dakota and South Dakota. Other utilities in Kansas and Iowa are contemplating shutoffs to nonpaying customers as soon as state imposed moratoriums expire. PS - Congratulations all posting and price guess winners! Chris Powell (04/16/01; 21:49:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 52003) Here's what GATA wants to show the gold producers, so help us! http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/732 Frank Veneroso's presentation is ready forthe GATA Gold Summit in Durban, South Africa,next month.http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/732To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email and get them immediately so you don't have to go look for them, send an email to:gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com Black Blade (04/16/01; 21:39:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 52002) PG&E Reports $4.12 Billion Loss http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010416/business_pge_earns_dc.html SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - PG&E Corp. (NYSE:PCG), parent of bankrupt California utility Pacific Gas & Electric, on Monday reported a fourth-quarter loss of $4.12 billion or $11.34 a share as the company wrote off massive power purchase costs which it vowed to continue to try and collect. Black Blade: The news just goes from bad to worse. Talk continues to make the rounds that Kommissar Davis may still seize the utility under eminent domain rules. So Cal Edison is moving forward with giving away its transmission grid to the state. Who knows, maybe Kalifornia will own the utes and still be short of power because the out of state providers and NG producers will demand higher rates due to payment risk or maybe they will demand payment up front. Energy guzzling Silicon Valley High Tech companies may take a big hit and higher utility rates will be passed along to the consumer in the form of higher prices. The real squeeze comes this summer when rates will go through the roof. It is also the tradition "Summer Doldrums" in the Tech Industry. With the Tech heavy Nasdaq already in the toilet, it does not look promising for High Tech investors. That is another reason to be wary of the talking heads who say that we are at or near a bottom. VanRip (04/16/01; 21:10:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 52001) R Powell - Honey-do's Rich,Yes, there is an age limit to the "honey-do's." You will know when you've reached it when the "honey-do's" have morphed ever so slowly into "what I need you to - do's" and then "when are you going to - do's." ( ; >) I will try to draw some lines on my charts to ensure 400-500/gold by next month. Wish I were so clever. Anyway, the dog has run off with my glasses, slide-rule and t-square again, so my charting must wait unil I find them. Maybe the old rascal is using them to make some charts of his own. Thanks for the note. ET (04/16/01; 21:03:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 52000) Dave Barry http://www.miami.com/herald/special/features/barry/2001/docs/apr15.htm From the article;"That's why, for quality entertainment, you can't beat TV commercials for large investment institutions. They all have the same message, which is: ``These are scary times for investors, so GIVE US YOUR MONEY! You can trust us, because we have a large building.'' "Sure! We can trust these institutions! We know this because 18 months ago, they all ran commercials that said: ``Sell your stocks right now! The market is about to go into the toilet!'' "Remember those commercials? Ha ha! Of course not. Eighteen months ago, the same institutions were running commercials that said: ``Everybody is getting rich in the stock market, so GIVE US YOUR MONEY! Then go shopping for your helicopter!'' " R Powell (04/16/01; 20:18:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 51999) VanRip You mentioned two items in 51986 that caught my eye. You stated your winning POG entry was determined by drawing a couple of lines on a chart. Can you rearrange them to intersect around 400-500/ounce for early next month for us? Also noted your wife wants predictions of chore completion dates. I'm a bit younger than yourself and was hoping that there is an age limit on "honey-do's". No such luck? Congrats on the POG chartreading! Rich R Powell (04/16/01; 19:24:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 51998) USAGOLD As soon as I read my posted contest entry, I saw the error which you corrected. I often do not check my work for errors as AOL has a nasty habit of disconnecting my internet link for what they percieve as "inactivity". Usually it comes with a warning of "Do you wish to remain online" but often this warning is omitted and I'm simply disconnected. I've lost many posts to this disconnect policy. Thanks for the recognition, the coin and the wisdom to know what I meant to convey. Thanks for deleting the three extra letters from my original! Rich USAGOLD (04/16/01; 19:15:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 51997) Kudos. . .and Welcome back. . . . I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate canamami on his well-deserved victory in the posting contest, vanRip in the price guessing contest (We wink at his post today in which he tries to make the sagacity of 70 years a disadvantage in these matters -- o wily one.), the runners-up who made it so difficult to choose a winner, as well as all the contestants who will be memorialized at the special page Randy has set up. I want to also thank Randy for his tireless efforts here, the most recent Fifth Horseman page just another testament to his extraordinary, and often over-looked, contribution to our daily convocation.I would also like to take this opportunity to welcome Another back to this Table. The circle is now joined in continuity again -- all around. Already I have added to my own file of vintage "Another (Thoughts!)" with this shrewd observation: "This dream of much dollar currency for gold is the illusion in the "Western Mind". Your men of "deep pockets" do probe for shortages, however, their wish for low supply is not to be found. Their pockets are full with "credit gold" and sad are they at currency price this brings. It is the fools game to corner paper gold printing press, no? Sir, I stand with no fools!" The smile of recognition returns to my face as this point is made in these few, short sentences better than I have seen it made in entire articles on the subject. Welcome back, my friend. Tree in the Forest (04/16/01; 18:58:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 51996) Re-post From Sector at GE:"The LBMA March ounces transferred numbers of 28.7 million reveals that there has been a big increase in volume. This can be interpreted in many ways but I prefer to view it as a final market "discovery" that the New York and German bullion banks are nearing exhaustion in sellable gold and that their vaunted "gold carry trades" are no longer profitable. The smart big players are moving in to snap up bullion BEFORE it rises too much. They were very busy in March." canamami (04/16/01; 18:40:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 51995) Honoured and Thank You MK,I am honoured to have my post selected as the winner of the Fifth Horseman contest, given the quality of the other posts entered, many of which were addressing similar themes. I recall the "boomer demographic" theory was cited eighteen months ago at a mutual fund show put on by my bank. Although the fund manager did not accept the theory, he did relate that the "demographic" theory suggested the Dow would go to 40,000 (I forgot by what year) simply due to boomers "saving" by putting money in the markets, and the fund manager said the theory had been accurate up to that time. The trouble was, I couldn't see how this could go on forever, if the underlying businesses just didn't justify such valuations. At some point, the irrationality would hit home to people, somewhat like the once popular theory of putting money into index funds - an excellent idea unless too many people start doing it, at which point the shares in the index become insanely valued. There is a basis, however, for believing there will be excessive saving by the boomers as they belatedly try to prepare for retirement. Gold would appear to be an ideal hard asset for this eventuality. Real estate can have high carrying costs, and the location of the real estate and development patterns can influence its value. Also, if immigration levels decline, there will be less need for housing stock. Gold does not suffer from the equivalent of property taxes, or the location issue. Also, if the estate tax is repealed in the US, this would remove a disincentive to hold gold, as the gold could openly pass to future generations. Unlike foreign currencies, physical gold is immune to counterparty risk, and thus enjoys a relative advantage as a hedge in that connection.Again, thank you for selecting my post, given the many fine posts submitted. R Powell (04/16/01; 18:22:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 51994) Two-thirds of a hat trick day With no lease rate given today (holiday in Europe?) we could not get a full hat trick but we did see a good move in POG and a 1.07 point move up in the XAU index (about two percent). If we concider a no change in lease rates as not negating the hat trick, then a hat trick tomorrow will give us three days in a row or a hat trick of hat tricks. Rich Cavan Man (04/16/01; 17:05:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 51993) auspec (from JMU library incognito) Excellent questions worthy of excellent answers; I've always wondered same....CM auspec (04/16/01; 16:59:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 51992) Bel-gian{t} Another and FOA {Giants} Hello, Sir Belgian,Yes, we track this US Dollar "cataclysm" together. The reason I track it is because that is what I hear coming through loud and clear from ANOTHER and FOA with words such as "forcing the US into a full blown super inflation that has no limits", "When the new Euro currency is done, full weight of dollars will return as your wet snow", talk of "$30,000 POG", etc. Only problem is, I don't or can't comprehend the total downfall of the dollar as in the Russian rouble or Weimar Germany meltdown. ANOTHER and FOA, do I even have this right that you are calling for a cataclysmic dollar end?ANOTHER---- "Gold will trade in Euros". That certainly looks feasible.ANOTHER----"History alone does show all great currencies end with this overselling of credit gold as last of era".Are we talking of the DEMISE of the dollar or just simply loss of predominate world reserve currency function??Oil trading in Euros?? That also looks reasonable. Certainly the EU is the "youth that is aligned to be served" shortly, but whither the dollar? There is a mountain of debt loaded on the roof and more coming home, but it surely will not ALL come home. The US has too many strategic alliances for all the debt to return. Some debt heading back upriver to spawn can be managed, and most local and foreign afficionados are totally in the dark, and ripe for perpetual fooling.Does loss of partial dollar trade function turn the earth on its axis? Its like the recent "co-presidency", only we will likely have "co-reserve currencies", no?What would be the benefit of a total DEMISE of the US Banana? It would take the US as we now know {knew} it, as well as our Constitution down with the Banana. That's how I see a dollar cataclysm if it were to take place. Maybe Rocky{feller} and F{r}iends would approve, but why is beyond this bloke. There are tremendous resources in "America", both natural and human, and this country will not go with just a whimper. How about a much more moderate scenario? Gold and oil priced in Euros, moderate to severe inflation in US but not dollar terminal, dollar loses much world reserve function, and US loses much front of cranium? That's pretty radical, no? Maybe we are just discussing semantics as to what some consider "cataclysmic". This "moderate" case is unlikely to bring a $30,000 POG IMHO.Appreciate any and all clarification as to what it would take to "turn the earth on its axis".auspecfully yours! Henri (04/16/01; 16:28:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 51991) Mr. Gresham Yes, that makes a LOT of sense...that there is no middle ground. If there be no middle ground, there be no real market! To your last paragraph I say amen if we can but hold water while the rest is washed away. ET (04/16/01; 16:13:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 51990) Old Yeller Hey Yeller - thanks for the kind words. We can sure hope you're correct, but by the very nature of fiat money, it is understandable why some people would want to have this franchise. The Euro is particularly troubling because of the unaccountability of its bureaucracy.My questions have concerned the fair valuation of gold and other assets by these same unaccountable bureaucrats. I'll tell you something, when somebody starts telling me they have a better way of "helping" me than the free market, let's just say I'm a bit skeptical. My experience tells me to run as fast as possible in the opposite direction. admin (04/16/01; 15:47:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 51989) Denmark 20 Kroners -- Christian X and Frederick VIII Just a short note to say we are sold out of the above. Thanks to all our participants. justamereBear (04/16/01; 13:31:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 51988) Thank You MK Thank you for the recognition. When I wrote that piece, I recognised a great variety of systemic risks, and had I but the wit to do so, I would have used that word. It says it all. I believe that all these sytemic risks amount to a row of dominoes, and when one goes, they will all go. It is going to be brutal.Congratulations to all the winners.Gold, get you somej'Bear Old Yeller (04/16/01; 13:15:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 51987) The perils of currency debasement? http://www.prudentbear.com/boards/user/non-frames/message.asp?forumid=4&messageid=40640&threadid=40640 It's puzzling to say the least that the 30yr. bond isn't doing what the prognosticators said it would.Stay tuned.Thanks again,Mr.Gresham,for alerting me to this forum. VanRip (04/16/01; 12:51:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 51986) Winner? Gold Price Guessing Contest Congratulations to Canamami and the others for outstanding work on the Fifth Horseman. Marvelous writing and a real education for me.Since I have not heard to the contrary, I gather I have won the gold-price guessing contest held along with the new Fifth Horseman. If so, my thanks to USAGold, Randy and especially MK for the chance to participate. Most generous of you all. As I am now in my 70's, it is gratifying to get the best of the younger ones now and then, even if it's only being able to guess better. Actually, I drew a couple of lines on a couple of charts to arrive at 260.20 plus or minus .50. Pretty close. I was runner-up at the last contest (I'm looking at that beautiful silver dollar prize as I type), so perhaps I'm getting pretty good at this prediction business. Perhaps I should refrain if you ever have another contest, so that the younger folks will have a chance. NOT!! :>) My wife, however, is not impressed. If I'm so good at predicting, she says, perhaps I can predict when I'll be finished with some of things she has asked me to do around here. Ah, sweet mystery of life... Again, many thanks. Old Yeller (04/16/01; 11:40:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 51985) Hello ET;great post The debate between Randy and yourself has been fascinating to follow,although it is sometimes hard to conceptualize,(for me,anyway)just who holds the upper hand.I'd like to add my devalued two cents worth of opinion to the fray.Firstly,I really liked one of your statements in your last post,as a matter of fact,I'm adding it to my list of notable quotes on this subject.If I may be so bold,I altered it slightly:"It seems the world at large is convinced that organized plunder is the natural state of things and we choose this of our own free will.I don't think anything could be further from the truth.I would counter that people do not understand money,but if they did,they would choose sound money."Now,on to the debate.Yes,I'm a euro booster.Why,when it is just another fiat currency?Simple,they have shown to me convincingly that they are the lesser of two evils.The fight for honest money,if successful,is going to take years,if not decades.I could go on for days about the evils of US fiat.To be brief,however,the example that burns me the most is US influence peddling in countries formerly run by despotic dictators.The Congo and Indonesia spring to mind.Because these "people" were viewed to have the right political leanings,they wre allowed to abscond with billions of dollars of US currency,mostly furnished through development loans.These countries are now stuck in horrific debt traps,the money and the leaders and their cronies are long gone.I cannot foresee under any circumstances the ECB allowing a crime such as this to occur.In my opinion,the ECB truly holds a utilitarian view of the world. IronHead (04/16/01; 11:02:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 51984) Journeyman RE: References Sir Journeyman - As per my post #51971, the author is listed as William Blum. Unfortunately I've not had the opportunity to read this work yet myself, with only the e-mail from a great "libby" (libertarian) friend, citing the Scholastic Test from the "Liberator," which referenced Mr. Blum's work.Funny that you were the only one to comment on that post, as the "test" fit in with your style of observation, and was with you in mind that I posted it.Thanks for reading, and congrats on your excellent New Horseman recognition. Salutations,IronHead Mr Gresham (04/16/01; 10:56:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 51983) Henri I think the short answer to my curiosity is: Some big guys ain't gettin' any. There is no middle market that will let them walk off with a tonne of real bullion. The gold is in the bank window for show ("bribe") only. Their GS/JPM "private banker" steers them to another (paper) window: "Er, perhaps I could show you something a little lighter, with colors more to your liking...?"To the ego of a rich person, that must be galling, but they would then be more likely to quietly retreat and not make a big, unseemly deal out of it. Conformists to the prevailing mindset, we and they all are, most of the time.Not worth them going to clean out the coins, so those are left for us littles. No middle to the market. (Gold is no longer about a market, but about maintaining the illusion of a dominant currency system.)A strange sort of small one-time partial equalization taking place between big and little guys. This currency war/transition is beyond even the rich to do more than tread water in.And even if all this history-making upheaval were not in the future, just the simple "buy-and-hold" into an asset at the bottom of its longest bear market would certainly fit classic investment advice, as well as the mentality that the equity cultists have been taught these 20 years. It's just a question of recognizing when the ideal object of their desires has jumped into a different holding.In the past year, we've stopped seeing the bubble darlings go on one more spin upward, handing us "fundamental value" believers our heads one more time. Several of the dominoes have toppled, and our regrets are now that we did NOT follow our belief with regard to them. In other words, we have "won" several battles with the fiat dragon's offspring. But we are tired, indeed. It is hard to imagine any enjoyment out of "winning" the last battle of the war, and we will be content to return home to find our homes and families safe and intact. admin (04/16/01; 10:45:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 51982) The New Fifth Horseman rides! http://www.usagold.com/hall/NewHorseman.html#anchor2776677 Thanks to all for the quality participation we received in this latest contest. You really put our panel of judges through the wringer to narrow the field down to the winning entries. The final decision proved to be so difficult that we felt it was more appropriate to expand our number of runner-up awards from two to five. "Throw open the doors to the Centennial treasury!! Marie, be sure to find some help to carry the prizes to the mailroom!"So, who are our winners? Who has earned the German 20 mark gold coin, and who takes a share of the five Silver Eagles?And who is this Fifth Horseman who can now be seen galloping into the Horsemen's camp over yonder hill -- this Fifth Threat?? And what is the nature of the threat he represents?Click the link above and all shall be revealed... ET (04/16/01; 09:58:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 51981) beesting http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_99/hein120699.html Hey beesting - thanks for joining in! You write in part;"Sir ETbelieves Physical Gold( & Silver) as specified in the U.S. Constitution is the only medium ofexchange(money)that should currently or at some time in the future,be in circulation."Sir Randy contends this is not practical on a world wide scale and "Issued" currency's with Gold "backing" asreserves(The Euro) will be the worlds choice in the future."I think it is important to note that sound money is at the heart of civilization and liberty. Sound money is not popular with those who wish to lord over others and plunder their savings. It is possible to use paper and electronic proxies and still have sound money but this is rarely mentioned here or elsewhere. The reason of course is that there is no "money" in it for the plunderers. It seems Randy is convinced that organized plunder is the "natural" state of things and we choose this of our own free will. I don't think anything could be further from the truth. I would counter that people don't understand money but if they did would choose sound money.By the way, the Euro isn't backed by anything either. Despite what some claim here, the fiat system in general is at risk currently and is falling of its own weight. The European economies suffer from the same credit excess as the rest of the world and are not immune to the coming credit collapse just because they change currencies. I'm unconvinced the Euro offers any sort of protection as it is just more such paper. We'll see. The following is from Paul Hein's 1999 article at the above link;"The traditional method of conquering another nation has been via warfare. It's a dangerous method, and leaves the victor with a seriously impaired property to manage after the war is over. This is especially true today, when weapons are so powerful and their effects, as, for example, radiation, so long-lasting and pernicious. "Accordingly, a newer method has been devised: conquest by paper. There appear to be two variants of this technique: the loan, and the replacement. "The euro is an example of replacement. The countries which have chosen to subjugate themselves to the euro-issuers are simply replacing their old monetary units with the new one. No more marks, pesetas, lira, etc.; now it's euros. The local paper currency will still be in use for another year or so; but important, and large, transactions are not carried out with those, but with check-transferrable credit numbers, which will now be called euros instead of their former names. Once the idea of the euro has become comfortable to its victims, the actual wallet money will be changed as well. Acclimation is important, because money is all about psychology, and people can become comfortable with the most egregious inequity if it is brought about gradually, and attended with much weighty discussion by serious types in three-piece suits. "There have been a few protests already about the euro, with one euro-banker getting a pie in the face, but that was no doubt to be expected. There are bound to be a few people who will realize--and perhaps even a few who will care--that the advent of the euro signals the end of sovereignty. Sure, there will still be boundaries, and different languages and customs, but so what? As long as the conqueror receives his tribute, he doesn't care what language his victims speak, or where lines are drawn on a map. Sir Reginald McKenna, former Chancellor of the Exchequer of England, told us that "Those who create and issue money and credit direct the policies of government and hold in the hollow of their hands the destiny of the people." Our own President Arthur said the same thing: "Whoever controls the volume of money in any country is absolute master of all industry and commerce." With the advent of the euro, the situation has gone international. The people of eleven European nations now are not only enslaved to their own governments, but to the euro-issuers. Their absolute masters, who hold their fate in the hollow of their hands, are foreigners. And not a shot was fired!" Inside (04/16/01; 09:49:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 51980) Topaz #: 51755) Thanks Topaz.. Well put....Thank God he's back... read the first and can't wait for the next instalment.I have been holding physical for a while now along with many gold shares & I'm getting fed up totally with the manipulation (I believed this before I found this forum).When will judgement day arrive.Inside Henri (04/16/01; 09:36:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 51979) Sirs Mr. Gresham, Parsifal, Trail Guide, and amid "sounds of heraldry", ANOTHER I have read the recent posts and first of all wish to welcome back our esteemed guest.After reading the response of ANOTHER (Thoughts) to Mr. Greshams query, I think he has in fact answered the question posed in terms of real physical rather than contract/paper gold.It would seem that the "big players" buy in tonnes not in bars and that their preferred venue for such transfers is the BIS. Perhaps some clarification from Sir Trail Guide would be in order. To me this statement limits the realm of "Big Players" to that of sovereign national governments as the BIS does not hold accounts for, or engage in, private transactions with individuals. If I am wrong in this then the BIS is in violation of its charter and bylaws. However, such an occurrence (the selling of national assets to private parties) would not suprise me. Once revealed(if factual),it would be a confirmation of collusion and corruption at very high levels of global finance and so must be kept under wraps. Perhaps the disenfranchisement of private shareholders is at once an attempt to remove the appearence of impropriety as much as the act of cloaking in the subsequent atmosphere of non-accountability.This would only be a continuance of the ancient practice of global scale bankers to dupe governance into placing its assets (unjustly appropriated from its populace...IMO govt should be a break even affair at best, there should be no spoils) at the disposal of private entities.In any case, at such a scale of purchase, no gold would actually move, but only title of ownership. This seems to be a specialty of the BIS which has acquired sufficient gold in transaction fees to pay off the remainder of its shareholder's subscribed gold debt.So Noble Sirs Mr. Gresham and Parsifal, if my interpretation of the words of Sir ANOTHER is anywhere near the mark, it would seem that small players buy 100 oz gold bars and we who buy coins are but miniscule players. I like that as I prefer to keep a low profile.About the paper gold reference, I perceive that in saying that big players also have their pockets stuffed full of paper gold that they would not want to perform any act that would render such "assets" worthless overnight.I think it also significant that Sir ANOTHER has pointed out that the availability of "bullion" (and here I take him to mean physical) is contingent on support of the dollar system as in "a bribe" and not because the paper markets trade in "dollars". This is a watershed change and perhaps the impetus behind the statement that the "credit" of the distended is now being withdrawn. This need only happen as a move to support the Euro as the new global reserve currency.More significanly, the gold that is being made available as bribe (presumably different from the small amount of physical gold sold to give credibility to the paper pricing market)must be coming from dollar based regimes or from regimes beholding to dollar based regimes. What gold is this? The rumored ESF transactions presented by Reg Howe and the GATA forces?Sir Trail Guide, which if any of these threads is leading anywhere near a more complete understanding of physical gold dynamics. Are the giants whom we follow in the footsteps of sovereign govts. I recall your dismay at having been accused of being supportive of treansfer of gold to some private usurpers of a nefarious trade occupation. This question however, is not the same. It seeks the answer to whether the "giants" are in the form of private entities or sovereign governance. This morning the paper market seems to have picked up a bit. Coincidence? Mr Gresham (04/16/01; 09:28:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 51978) Spike II http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html It's everywhere! (Great little mirage to wake up to... Of course, my friends, sometimes a mirage really IS an oasis. Shukran.) Old Yeller (04/16/01; 09:09:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 51977) Hey,CB2;surfing in Bralorne? Seeing Belgian's reference to the Kondratieff cycle,the last time the big wave broke,Bralorne was one of the only providers of decent well-paying jobs in western Canada.Any predictions for a repeat?On a different note,I see FN has regained all the value lost in the post-Normandy shuffle.Did you see the article about James Grant in the National Post?He refers to his bullishness in gold as one of his major mistakes over the past five years.He still holds the faith,however.His favorite gold stock?Surprise,Franco-Nevada.That,in my book,is a significant seal of approval. ET (04/16/01; 09:02:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 51976) Christopher Westley http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=654&FS=Bartley%27s+Contemplations From the article;"What is it about economic downturns that get mainstream economists and economic journalists into a frenzy? Robert L. Bartley, the editor of the Wall Street Journal, inadvertently answered this question in his "Talking Things Over" column last week. "We've survived real recessions and real bear markets before," writes Bartley, "yet somehow the current pause has been particularly frightening to a lot of people. For one thing, it came off years of uninterrupted progress and spectacular growth from mid-1999 to mid-2000, and it also hit rather by surprise. But the most important reason the downturn is scary, I suspect, is that its cause remains a mystery." "The bigger mystery, in fact, is that the Wall Street Journal editor isn't clear on the causes of something as fundamental as a business-cycle downturn. Unfortunately, he is not alone, as the same could be said of many mainstream economists. These occurrences simply do not fit into their models, and so they remain "a mystery." And while many thinkers, including Bartley, arrive at quasi-Austrian explanations, they refuse to follow this train of thought to its logical end. Doing so would require that they favor a paired down monetary infrastructure with a less prominent role for central bankers and economic journalists who lobby them." Belgian (04/16/01; 08:48:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 51975) A must read ! http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a38009c120c54.htm Anne Williamson hammers on a the right nail ! Is this article GATA-inspired ? Her intuitive conclusions (+ extrapolations) around the facts are very relevant.! The big picture of the dollar comes out of the fog. Auspec : probably, I know this person via, via. But I don't know his name. abudahhab (04/16/01; 08:41:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 51974) @JMB Yes, I hope it continues as well. This has been a hellish 3 years. I'm not really concerned about any title of "the greatest" except for being long for the greatest gold bull market of them all! JMB (04/16/01; 08:21:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 51973) ABUDAHHAB Sir: I realize it's a little early in the week to proclaim your post, #51914 @10:44 on 4/15/01, the greatest prognostication in the history of the gold trade but I do tip my hat to you for one hell of a start. Nice call. I sure hope it continues. Galearis (04/16/01; 07:52:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 51972) Gold and silver graphs @Kitco Very interesting if not a glitch...G. Journeyman (04/16/01; 07:04:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 51971) Desperately Seeking Reference @IronHead 04/15/01; msg#: 51902 SIR IronHead!In your highly appropriate post, IronHead (04/15/01; 03:08:30MT -usagold.com msg#: 51902), you cite a list of agressive actions bythose folks in Washington D of C. The list is headed:"Killing Hope: U.S. Military and CIA Interventions Since WorldWar II." Can you steer me to the source by any chance? Author, publisher,etc.?Sure would appreciate it!Regards,JourneymanP.S. Great posts - - can't keep up! auspec (04/16/01; 05:28:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 51970) Belgian Thanks for your rare and gracious opinions regarding gold-- much appreciated. I have been asked to pass a name along to you...Herve' Goyens, just in case you know each other. Gotta go participate in the 'curse of man' {work}, more later. Belgian (04/16/01; 04:59:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 51969) Parsifal/Gresham...deep pockets question : Sorry for interfering, but IMO, this question has already been answered extensively. If our projections for Goldvalue are correct : it is of the outmost importance that physical gold must be accumulated at a low dollar-price. If we do agree that the dollar-dominance is to be reversed...one must create the most unfriendly environment for gold in order to anticipate the projected (shocking) change.This low POG is not an invitation. It is the optimized result of concerted action taken by the gold-accumulators.Candidate gold-squeezers, already understood this much longer before I did (smile). We are not talking about a goldprice, insignificant, temporary blip. Low POG is not the result of some kind of succesfull speculative move.It is not the result of offer/demand balance ! It is part of a very Big Change that is in progress. It is the only logical explanation that is left after analysis of POG's behaviour and accompagned fundamentals.Our governments are not going to shout that we must buy Gold ! The ones who are accumulating want to do this in complete discretion and pray that their timing will not be disturbed by reckless and unforeseen accumulation of physical through an opportunistic squeezer. The vast amounts of different silences of all gold-parties, led me to this conclusion. Gold is not death ! On the contrary, it is juveniling (becoming younger)Sorry for poor english.Realising the above...I 've changed my attitude towards gold completely. Goldbug >>> Gold advocate ! Please, please keep the prize down ! Allow me to accumulate more ! Don't stop this Alice in Goldland.It was the constant declining POG that was worrying us before. We slowly started to understand what was happening and through deduction, arrived at the conclusion that there is a purpose for this abysmal valuation. Sorry, have to leave. Topaz (04/16/01; 04:33:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 51968) Henri, Wiz, Hi Henri....and thanks for the thought's. Yes, every now and then something comes along that makes all else pale...even the Yeller.Gandalf...wasn't the original estimation 25K tons? The latter article alluded to 2500 Tons. 25K was a bit scary but 2500 I could live with. Zenidea (04/16/01; 03:42:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 51967) IF Now if one of these quartz crystals will just let me see into the future?. hehe. immmm by the way is it not just incredibly astonishing how NATURE can make crystals of quartz let alone crystals of gold. you know uniform sides as if something sooooooo logical is out there. Heating up the pick-axe next week :) Zenidea (04/16/01; 03:34:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 51966) As per usual A bag of rice , a bag of flour a few .22 leaded and some sparkage and off to the bush a wandering. Found two grand outcrops of Quartz. One rounded by glacial action and the other a popping up recently by the immediate few million years of weather. No Gold :( , but hey ! darn good samples a plenty for the garden at home and a bob a bag I bet :). Belgian (04/16/01; 03:29:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 51965) Some answers + more questions of course... Beesting : Sakhalin/Kuril, ground : as good a reason as any other for gold-exchange. But much more is at stake in the Transitional Russia. One day they will have to give the Roubel-currency some more value as the paper on wich it is printed. Choices will have to be made. The black market uses the dollar. What will be the future official currency ?Japanese want Russia as a resources-provider in exchange for offered goods and services. All these possible growth scenarios, might start with a new vision on what a currency should represent. There is so much *Future* waiting to take a start. We cannot rush into this future before the currency desaster has been solved for the good.Gresham : BoE goldsales. Eating the candy on the way to shool, for not having to share it : pluri-interpretable metaphore and quite charming.Intuition says : there are certainly a multitude of reasons why they do it and why they do it this way. Why : USA orders to do so ! How : physical gold is not for sale in large blocks ! Divide and rule ! Ultimate power is not given away in one go.Grailseeker + Juvenating Yeller : Europ / Euro / EMUIs it a powerplay between IMF and BIS ? My modest effortsto gain Gold-Information with Belgian authorities, resulted in a big zero, nada. At the same time democrately furious and frightened. What are they up to ? Gold remains synonym of absolute silence. The media just don't cover anything on these serious matters. They keep on infantilizing.I will always beware for Euro Over-Optimism. 80.000 tonnes of "Private" gold against 40.000 tonnes of public gold.Who will dominate who ? And if our dreamed projections of Gold-Value, be that enormous...have we already figured out what consequences such a massive power-shift, might have?Considered we are not talking about a 1980-like temporary POG-spike.The Argentina move is a positive confirmation of all Euro scenarios. Probably, much others are in the make.Auspec : finally you caused me having those Weimar-dreams (yes, dreams) again. Bad boy's dreams of dollar-cataclysm, whilst having changed from goldbug to gold advocate.Unnecessary to remind you that I keep on relying on "the charts". They must finally confirm the underlying fundamentals. This play is happening at IMF - BIS (and satelites) level.US-dominance started for good after WWII. It coincides with the start of Kondratieff cycle (1949-IR/low).The USSR, was also in the run for World dominance. It crushed 70 years later. A similar Kondratieff cycle ?Was the extended US (pseudo) expansian, reflected in a very visible, parabolic Stock Market...not a beautifull "FINALE"for preparing to accept that, time has come to go ?I am constantly interrogating myself about that "mythical" *Strenght* of the US ! An authoritarian father who provides me with dollar pocket money. Wait, until I'll grow up and become as strong as you pretend to be. Isn't it something like this that is unfolding ? The Euro-son that became an adult and looking for an harem of brides ? Father-dollar, will retire and remain very influencial up until Euro-son will have teenage children.Live-cycles and seasons are unavoidable.The unreasonable low Gold-Valuation of the past 20 years must be related to the aging of father-dollar. The brutal dollar cataclysm (stroke) is to be compared with the sudden removal of the Berlin wall of shame. All this also happened in total secrecy and unawareness of the public.Sir, Auspec, please stay on this forum, and communicate your deepest soul-storms. Thanks ! Parsifal (04/16/01; 01:32:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 51964) Mr. Gresham, Ganfolf Mr. Gresham asked Another: "I am trying to understand why this knowledge you bring is not being acted upon by some others with "deep pockets", such that the markets would be moved, or shortages occur, even before the dollar is seenin weakness."Mr. Gresham, how would you suggest one with deep pockets would act upon the knowledge Another brings? Surely not by buying paper gold, oh no, I know you too well for that. You were thinking of market-moving acts involving the purchase and delivery of physical gold, no? It is a fine question that I wonder about too. OK, now I am going to re-read Another's response to that question. One moment please. [. . .] OK, yep, yep. The question certainly was misunderstood, simply unanswered, or answered with respect to paper gold, not physical gold. I'm not sure attempts at clear answers are allways made here. Golly-gee.Mr. Gresham, you are so polite. I shall try the same, but I must say that your question was either not answered or misunderstood. I do not believe it is likely that every deep-pockets financial entity (person, corporation, whatever) is happy to quietly accumulate physical gold and not rock the boat. I expect that would be contrary to human nature, especially in light of the relatively small amounts of cash it may take to create a large affect.Gandolf: Thanks for the updates on the existence/nonexistence of that bit of mystery Black Gold. It will be very interesting if any significant amounts are found, may seriously open up the search for more Black Gold.Parsifal ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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