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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 2/16/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

IronHead (02/16/01; 23:35:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 48439)
Forum Choir Director Or Sir Oro's Neighbor?
http://www.prudentbear.com/credit.htm
Doug Noland, on Greenspan:

{Ok, I'm probably the last guy on the forum to read Doug Noland's Friday update, but just in case someone was on a plane ride today?}

Ties in very well with Sir Oro's and Sir WW Oracle's discussions today regarding mortgages, GSE's, and obfuscation (phony baloney) from the Fed Head. See today's posts nos. 48377, 48389, 48391, 48394, 48396, 48397, 48413

Oracle and Oro*tory* - Seems appropriate, and they dance pretty well together.

Salutations
IronHead

Simply Me (02/16/01; 23:31:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 48438)
@Shifty...FL Water
Lived in FL for 25 years, most recently for 6 years in Pasco Co. (Tampa area). In that time, saw my water/sewage bill rise from $20/mo. to about $100/mo. We paid the same price for electricity as we did for water....and we had a well for watering the lawn.
Florida was paradise 25 years ago. But 4 years ago, I couldn't wait to move out! Even the Gulf water is getting cruddy from the overpopulation. Far too many people crammed into too little space, competing for increasingly scarce resources. Unfortunately, all the politicians think about is adding to their voter and tax bases when approving large new residential developments.

Potable water is definitely the NEXT big resource shortage. Anyone who's lived in hot western or southern states should know. And rising inflation will only highlight the problem as water bills skyrocket.

I do hope there's enough water to put out the fires this summer. For your sake, and my still-Floridian family.
simply

JMB (02/16/01; 23:30:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 48437)
SHIFTY
You were wondering what you Floridians are going to do for water. Gatoraid? Give it a try, you might like it.

SHIFTY (02/16/01; 22:07:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 48436)
VanRip
VanRip I am in Volusia co. Fl and there is a new development going in that I hear will double the size of our town from about 16,500 to about 33,000. Like you say with water restrictions what are all these folks ( myself included )going to do for water.

$hifty

VanRip (02/16/01; 21:22:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 48435)
Another Shortage
Adding to Black Blade's post about the short sightedness of planners, in Florida, as many probably know, there is now a statewide drought, very, very serious in many parts and getting worse. In many areas, the lawns and grassy areas are gone and water usage severly restricted. In Palm Beach County, which is far from the worst, watering lawns, washing cars, etc. is now restricted to two days a week and only from 4 to 8 AM. Violaters are being fined up to 500 bucks a day. And there's talk of limiting water usage to one day per week and possibly once every two weeks. So what are the commissioners doing? Why they've just given the green light to the building of some 4000 new homes and apartments, several new office and residential towers, with more of the same on the books ready to go. This is in addition to the tens of thousands of homes and apartments recently authorized and now under construction. Not a word about where the water is to come from to service these new homes and offices or the effects on business and the people of a possible worsening and prolonged drought. Folks beginning to get angry.

JMB (02/16/01; 20:16:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 48434)
Black Blade
http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm
I sure enjoy your contribution. Thanks.

Black Blade (02/16/01; 19:33:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 48433)
Doubts surface about New York City summer electricity supply
http://ogj.pennnet.com/Content/cd_anchor_article/1,1052,OGJ_7_NEWS_DISPLAY_92505_1,00.html

To avoid possible blackouts this summer in New York City and on Long Island, the New York Independent System Operator (ISO) said additional electricity capacity needs to be located in these areas before summer.

Black Blade: And so it spreads like a plague of Locusts. The eastern Grasshoppers like their Kalifornian cousins have not built power generation for much the same reason (NIMBY). A long hot summer could make life, dare I say it? "Interesting" - "And they danced, sang, and played all summer�"

Black Blade (02/16/01; 19:25:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 48432)
U.S. Needs More Pipelines to Fuel New Power Plants
http://news.lycos.com/headlines/TopNews/article.asp?docid=RTNEWS-NATGAS-PIPELINES-DC&date=20010216
Build more NG-fired power plants? Sure, but even if more NG is found to supplement the current shortage, it does no good without the accompanying infrastructure. The short sightedness of planners could just create another problem for those trying to mitigate the energy crisis. NG figured prominently in today's PPI numbers.

Chris Powell (02/16/01; 19:24:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 48431)
Summary of today's GATA dispatches
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/658
Gold Fields closes hedge positions:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/658

U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill drops more
hints against market manipulation:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/659

South Africa advised to discourage manipulators
who have been attacking the rand:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/660

GATA Chairman Bill Murphy meets Shaka's
descendant, the king of the Zulus:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/661

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Black Blade (02/16/01; 19:15:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 48430)
RE: Hill Billy Mitchell and Horatio

The Social Security funds are "off budget" and therefore are not included in the budget. By depositing Treasuries in the SS fund, and withdrawing the SS funds for inclusion in the "Budget", the government can keep the illusion of a "budget surplus." However, these Treasuries must be serviced and more debt is accumulated, albeit "off the books" or in other words "off-budget." The fallacy of the budget surplus is exposed when one looks at the US Treasury's numbers on the national debt. The national debt has grown even though we are continuously told by proud self-serving politicians that we have a budget surplus. That is possibly a good counter-point to the proposed Bush Tax Cut. However, don't expect any of these scum to make the proposal that the Treasuries in the SS fund to be retired as it would exposed this shell game. I have written a number of congressmen and senators and have yet to get a response. So, in other words, don't hold your breath. It probably doesn't matter as the SS program will go into default or simply be discontinued at some point IMO.

- Black Blade

Hill Billy Mitchell (02/16/01; 18:17:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 48429)
Horatio @ # 48427
Sir, You asked:

"Why doesen't the gumment simply take some surplus dollars and buy back some of the IOU's in the SS fund".

Hbm Comment:

I may be missing something but I was not aware that the SS Trust Fund sold any IOU's to the gumment. To buy back implies a previous sale that would be eligible for repurchase. Probably just a matter of terminology, a failure in my understanding here. I'm sure that you have said something important. Please explain or someone jump in and clear this up.

It seems to me that to move the IOU's back to where they belong would be the last thing the 'gumment' would do, being exactly the opposite of what they are doing, hiding the annual deficit.

When will the IOU's be moved back into the proper accounting position? When and only when it must be done to pay the baby boomers their entitlements, so called.

When the baby boomers start kicking and screaming for their fair share, we will see monitization like we have never seen before unless a New World Order is not already in place. In that case the baby boomers will barely eat. We are talking slavery, black and white alike. Talk about equal rights. Finally the playing field will be perfectly level for all in class # 3.There will be three classes, only. (1)The Power Players, monied class (2) The enforcers, bureaucrats, gestapo whores. (3) The slaves who work for food. Above all will be the despot.

Respectfully,

HBM

Tree in the Forest (02/16/01; 17:35:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 48428)
Randy: war
The problem as I see it my friend, is that government probably never will be honest regarding fiat money. We did have such honesty at the founding of this nation but those men were indeed a breed apart. Their laws regarding silver and gold as money have been ignored in the 20th century. Do you honestly expect something different now? I want to know how, when the dollar crashes (as we all know it will) the politicians will explain this to the sheeple without a war? Will they tell them that fiat is just printed paper? That they have ignored the laws of the nation for almost a century? By the way, I would like nothing better than to be proven wrong on this issue and to see true honesty but I shall not hold my breath. I would rejoice if this was accomplished sans war! I think we will know soon, perhaps in a few months.

Horatio (02/16/01; 17:02:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 48427)
Social Security
Why doesen't the gumment simply take some surplus dollars and buy back some of the IOU's in the SS fund? Woulden't that be better than buying back bonds and disrupting free markets , This would stop inflation and prevent monetizing the debt markets .This monetizing of debt instruments could cause a bankruptsy of the banks ,just as happened it the 30's .Removing the earnings of banks in a declining economy situation where loan demand declines is a sure formula for bank failure.Didn't they learn anything from the 30's,or is it thier intention to deliberately cause a depression for whatever sinister motives they may have.Maybe we should have a mandatory jail sentence for the Fed head if he allows this to happin,he certainly can't plead that he doesen't have the knowledge or the authority .Where is the accountability?

Randy (@ The Tower) (02/16/01; 16:50:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 48426)
Weekend reading
http://www.usagold.com/THEGILDEDOPINION.html
Be sure to see the two latest arrivals this week at The Gilded Opinion. . . . Mssrs. Turk and Hamilton.

Randy (@ The Tower) (02/16/01; 16:47:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 48425)
Notice to International Clientele
http://member.usagold.com/commentaryreview.html
The February pdf edition of News & Views is available for your access. Scroll to the bottom of the left-hand column of MK's Commentary & Review to download your file.

Randy (@ The Tower) (02/16/01; 16:36:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 48424)
Hill Billy Mitchell....Truth!
Your brilliant words punish the senses like the noonday sun upon freshly fallen snow. I concur with you completely that those who are mindful of gold's position today yet have not embarked upong a program of buying likely never will. The only buyers will be those prudently adding to existing positions, and those lucky new comers who blindly rush in to buy and then ask questions later. As you say, those who remain on the sidelines busy THINKING about it will only succeed in outthinking themselves and having no metal to show until well past "THE Turn".

You said (very much worth repeating):
"I would also submit that those who [are] wait[ing] to buy at below $250 would probably not buy even at that price. They will still be looking for a lower price. The price will likely bounce up strongly with higher premiums to cover dealer volatility before those types of buyers ever push the buy button. In other words if you are not a buyer @ $280 you will not be a buyer at $190, a plain and simple fact."

Well said!

Journeyman (02/16/01; 16:20:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 48423)
Butcher of Baghdad Bush II @ALL

Bush authorized the air-strikes against Iraq before he left on his trip to Mexico and calls them "routine" -CNBC, Feb. 16, 2001, 5:47PM EST

This is somewhat true: The Brit and Yank mercenary air pirates have been bombing Iraqi territory "routinely" (several times a week) for years. BUT they at least stayed within the lines they arrogated themselves (called "no-fly zones",) and these didn't include Baghdad.

As far as the "self defense" excuse, I suppose if Libya declared Virginia a "no-fly zone" and radar within Washington D.C. "painted" Libian air-craft flying over Virginia, the Lybians would be justified to bombing the D.C. radar installations doing the "painting" in "self-defense."

And as far as the "Iraq having 'weapons of mass destruction'" excuse, the United States Government has the biggest stash of weapons of mass destruction in the world today - - - and they're the only government in history ever to use them against civilian cities. Which they did twice: Against Hiroshima, and then just a few days later, Nagasaki.

As far as the "we want to unseat Saddam Hussein" excuse, as they're own research and actions have once again proven in both Iraq and Serbia, the quickest way to make an unpopular foreign potentate into an instant hero to his people is to bomb said people. So if they believe this patent, blatant BS, they're as stupid as they are arrogant.

Journeyman

Randy (@ The Tower) (02/16/01; 16:17:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 48422)
S,L,&TT, and others regarding the superiority of market discipline
I wouldn't for a minute dispute either of you that the numbers were/are painted by the government to present the prettiest picture. I simply doubted the prospect that the Bush administration would be both uncovering something with complete honesty on one hand while drawing attention from it with war on the other hand. Too messy.

All,
Getting back to the problems of pricing in the gold market, I've been following with interest the dialog here regarding efforts of the Gold Anti-Trust Action crew. I'd be particularly interested in hearing the views of Mr. Gresham, Journeyman, ET, and ORO on whether you guys agree with my personal view that an inevitable solution to the untenable problems and imbalances arising from the natural forces imposed by market discipline would be far superior than any alternate solution which might be prematurely brought about by forcing the hand of legislators and regulators. The last thing we need is for gold to appear to rise due to the supportive acts of government rather than rising solely on the natural strength of metal demand in free markets shattering the temporary imbalance caused by unrelated paper price discovery.

I am thinking that we would all likely agree that market-based solutions in the fullness of time are superior to legislated ones used as a preemptive strike against such true market discipline having its own "day in court".

Clearly, while the time elapses as the market forces build to the punishing and decisive conclusion, we would all be best served by playing the side of the growing imbalance that offers us the trade-advantage for the best future position even as such action contrubutes further to the cripping imbalance. To play this side of the modern market condition to full advantage is to be buying the physical gold for as long as it yet moves at these artificially low prices, as was the a priori "dilemma".

Hill Billy Mitchell (02/16/01; 16:02:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 48421)
Journeyman @ # 48294 and # 48290
The following is not a paraphrase of Journeyman's words, but rather a condensation of his post:

"You can't do that - - - not for long"

"You simply CAN'T sell a physical product�at below production costs�when�there's an excess of demand over supply."

HBM comment:

Hooray for you Journeyman. I suspect that you were reading Pugsley and the likes long before the internet arrived on the scene. With all the talk of gold going down to $190-$200 range, for some time now, I have been waiting to see if someone would risk his reputation by exposing the utter bottom of the Physical Gold market which we have found for the second time in recent months.

We are not dealing with paper here. Physical products cost money to produce. Physical will not be produced (for long) at a cost that is higher than the price at which it can be bought on the open market, period.

Even with Holtzman's, "great awakening", (that CB's with BB cooperation can in fact produce the physical in great abundance) their selling at below production costs will put us peons in the driver's seat to buy at below production costs. I stake my meager reputation on it�We will never see gold @ $249 and under for more than 96 hours (unless, of course, physical production costs drop from current levels). This allows for 24 hours plus weekend and holiday timing.

What does this mean:

Very simply, we peons cannot lose more than the spread for more than 96 hours if we buy US Eagles at Spot $250 plus normal premium. No need for bottom fishing in the physical market on any commodity. The bottom is simply production cost. We have an additional safety factor. The cost of production will rise with the cost of the oil required to produce the stuff.

Very respectfully submitted,

HBM

PS: I would also submit that those who wait to buy at below $250 would probably not buy even at that price. They will still be looking for a lower price. The price will likely bounce up strongly with higher premiums to cover dealer volatility before those types of buyers ever push the buy button. In other words if you are not a buyer @ $280 you will not be a buyer at $190, a plain and simple fact.

PSS: If I had a thousand dollars (paper) to tuck away I would spend every dime of it on physical ASAP whether the spot price were $190 or $790, as I would consider it a bargain at either price.

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (02/16/01; 15:24:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 48420)
Randy,.....about Tree's hypothesis
The numbers have been faked for so long that most people now believe they don't tell the true story. Most likely the true inflation rate is far higher, I wouldn't be surprized if it was 20%. All of the prices for staple consumer goods have been increasing for the last two years. The only bargains I am aware of are those venues of discretionary spending, i.e. tourist resorts and the like. I think any official US government figures released that reflect negatively upon the economy are being done so because not doing so would no longer be believed by most people. The government is getting the jump on the story, while not giving the entire story, or the whole truth. The diversions allow the slightly negative economic information to be placed out there for public consumption at the same time a more immediate crisis of patriotic importance will further divert the public. When even the released economic data won't hold water with the public, then the "real" data will be released. Of course the "real" data will also by then have a manufactured "patriotic" cause behind it, to protect the liars in public office.

I suspect this is just the beginning.

ET (02/16/01; 15:24:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 48419)
Sean Corrigan
http://www.fiendbear.com/guestpg3.htm

From the article;

"In a speech heavily larded with the same fatuous New Era, Info-Age, esser-leads-and-lags, better-
production-management spiel he gave us all the way up to Nasdaq 5132 to justify his productivity assumptions, he
performs another backflip when he says :-

"'..some suppliers seem to have reacted late to accelerating demand, have overcompensated in response, and then
have been forced to retrench - a not unusual occurrence in business decision making.'

"So is it a New Paradigm or just the same old Credit Cycle?

"This speech was little but a hotch-potch of Old Keynesian fallacies (he even thinks he's FDR in his bit about a 'process
engendered by fear'), wishful thinking and erratic self-justification.

"The point at hand is that the economy - arguably the whole Global system - has become dangerously unbalanced
because Greenspan and his ilk have allowed a far too rapid pace of credit expansion for far too long, artificially lowering
the cost of capital and occasioning a whole raft of errors in entrepreneurial calculation. The partial breakdown of this
accumulation of misdirected resources is what we are witnessing at present."

"Conceptually, we remain long Prime Sovereign Debt and short Stocks. We are hoping to avoid the embarrassment of
seeing $/Euro trigger stop losses. We are looking at the current sharp uptick in the Gold lease rate with interest. We are
trying to decide whether to laugh at Bookie Al or cry for him.

"But, then, Murray Rothbard did warn us when Greenback was appointed in 1987:-

"'I found particularly remarkable the recent statements in the press that Greenspan's economic consulting firm of
Townsend-Greenspan might go under, because it turns out that what the firm really sells is not its econometric
forecasting models, or its famous numbers, but Greenspan himself, and his gift for saying absolutely nothing at great
length and in rococo syntax with no clearcut position of any kind. As to his eminence as a forecaster, he ruefully
admitted that a pension-fund managing firm he founded a few years ago just folded for lack of ability to apply the
forecasting where it counted: when investment funds were on the line.'"

Journeyman (02/16/01; 15:12:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 48418)
Risks Of Inflation (according to the establishment) @ALL

~"There has been inflation in this country for two years, but policy makers have been burying their heads in the sand. " -Economist Paul Krasiel, CNBC, Feb. 16, 2001, 5:04PM EST

Regards, J.

Journeyman (02/16/01; 15:00:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 48417)
Risks Of Stagflation (according to the establishment) @ALL

Segment entitled "Risks of Stagflation:" You don't get out of the biggest period of growth in history easily. It may not be stagflation, but if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's at least a duckling.-Wolman Slower growth fosters inflation. Data shows that in recent history, inflation always has accompanied slower growth.-Kudlow Energy prices must go up in this country. We don't come out of these things unscathed.-Wolman A free market in energy would go a long way to solving the energy crisis.-Kudlow -Bill Wolman & Larry Kudlow, Risks of Stagflation, CNBC, Feb. 16, 2001, ~4:50PM EST

Regards, J.

Randy (@ The Tower) (02/16/01; 14:38:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 48416)
Tree, I don't follow your thinking
If our new administration is willing to take the bitter medicine and expose the truth of the inflation numbers (whereas the previous administration chose to hide it with easily fudged numbers), then why would this same new administration feel it necessary to distract people from seeing the truthful inflation numbers they have chosen to bring into the light of day?

It seems inconsistent. If they wanted to avoid focus on high inflation numbers, how much easier it would be to fudge the numbers than to drop bombs. No? In our search for truth in deeds and words, we must also look for consistency in our evluations/interpretations.

But, thanks for this "food for thought".

Tree in the Forest (02/16/01; 14:22:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 48415)
The "war"
Today's PPI data shows a near zero inflation rate (based on the lies of the previous administration) going to a double digit 13.1% annual inflation rate. How do you hide the effects of this revelation on the markets? Simple. Just start a little war. CBS coverage is all about the "war" and just a little "oh yeah, the markets are down" with no mention of the inflation rate. See how it's done? Now if a relatively small revelation like that requires a skirmish, what will the collapse of the dollar require? Are we all on the same page now?

Randy (@ The Tower) (02/16/01; 14:02:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 48414)
As the money supply swells (review today's first post), the Fed again takes action to add reserves
Today the Federal Reserve again provided additional reserves to the banking system, using 6-day repurchase agreements to add $1.75 billion.

Clearly, this was an open market operation driven by the desire to provide reserves moreso than to influence the federal funds market -- which was trading at the time at 5-7/16th percent, just below the Fed's target rate.

ORO (02/16/01; 13:53:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 48413)
WW Oracle - mortgages
There is much to be said in favor of the GSE+banks + Fed model rather than the Fed+Banks+Treasury model. The GSE interest rate is a rate based on market expectations and is a near true market clearing rate most of the time. The Fed Treasury one includes money markets but has the Fed affecting directly only one of the component interest rates. With the RPs, securitized mortgage obligations and commercial paper the Fed has a more uniform effect (if it so chooses).

Meyer's problem might have been that the GSEs are made up of pure moral hazard and do not have tools to make creditworthiness judgments - the two combine to form an iresponsible party that will invevitably push the economy into the same kind of massive malinvestment that the Fed did in its own early history. GSEs use statistical models, and these tend to force the market around them so that the rules that worked in the past (based on statistical models) are turned on their head as a result of the "crowded trade" effect - where all believe the same models apply and have therefore piled up the same trades with the same hedges and the same types of securities. Crowded trades unwind with a near discontinuity of the market. It is dangerous.

Randy (@ The Tower) (02/16/01; 13:23:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 48412)
Stay tuned for next week's U.S. international trade report
We expect the data for December will reveal yet another massive net outflow of gold into foreign ownership. Given the trend, the U.S.'s net gold exports for the year will likely exceed the sum total of our domestic mine production for that year.

Don't be among the ones left holding paper when all the world is holding gold. (You did hear, did you not, the World Gold Council reported Q4 for 2000 set an all time record high for global gold demand over any previous quarter? Truth!)

Pandagold (02/16/01; 13:17:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 48411)
War Hawk

You can rest assured this crisis has been pushed by the war hawk Israel. But with it presenting an opportunity to divert some attention from home, America didn't need much pushing. You could see this coming a mile away. Why are the Brits there? They have to do as they are told, America needs a bedfellow to let the world, and the American people know, it is not them alone.

Buena Fe (02/16/01; 13:17:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 48410)
from Randy's piece below
Manna from heaven.

On the eve of his first meeting with his counterparts from the the Group of Seven industrialized nations in Italy, O'Neill laid open the floodgates with this little gem: ``We are not pursuing, as it is often said, a policy of a strong dollar. In my opinion a strong dollar is the result of a strong economy.''

O'Niel and Bush/Cheney have been telegraphing for sometime that the US economy IS weakening........hence the US banana will also weaken!........this has got the walled street bankers in a little tizzy........it's about time!!!!!!!

Randy (@ The Tower) (02/16/01; 12:56:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 48409)
HEADLINE: Treasury's O'Neill livens up a dull question
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010216/n16211474.html
Give this article a look...fun reading to convey the essence of the "dollar policy" matter. It begins:

WASHINGTON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Asking the U.S. treasury secretary what his position is on the so-called strong dollar policy has been a long-running joke among the clique of Washington reporters who cover such matters. But no longer.
``Ask him about the dollar policy,'' one reporter will hiss to a colleague as they wait to ambush the official in some Washington hallway. ``You ask him,'' the other will inevitably reply, knowing the answer before the question is posed.
After all, it doesn't take a genius to figure it out -- strong dollar good, weak dollar bad.
But invariably the question is always asked, the standard answer trotted out verbatim, the pithy six-line story written, the financial markets unmoved and everyone goes home happy.
For years the strong dollar policy has been as American as apple pie, as predictable as the passing of time, as moot a question as, ``Have you now, or at any time, been a member of the Communist Party?''
Former Treasury chiefs Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers raised answering the strong dollar question to an art form.
``The U.S. supports a strong dollar ...'' and variants of the same were repeated like a meditative chant by the pair with an assured conviction aimed at comforting financial markets.
But now there's a new sheriff in town.

----click link for full article-------

To summarize the meat of the matter, SecTeas O'Neill recently answered the question with these carefully chosen words:
"We are not pursuing, as it is often said, a policy of a strong dollar. In my opinion a strong dollar is the result of a strong economy."

The article goes on to explain:
-------O'Neill's words bear marked similarity to one of Rubin's all-time best comments on the issue. ``A strong dollar is very much in this nation's economic interest both now and in the long term. I believe the fundamentals in this country are very strong, and as a consequence I think we will have a strong dollar over time.''

While the sentiment in both O'Neill's and Rubin's remarks were in essence the same, the devil is in the details.------

Again, visit the URL for elaboration.

Randy (@ The Tower) (02/16/01; 12:47:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 48408)
Trigger for gold...and sleeping well
With military strikes in the Middle East coming as we enter a three-day holiday weekend for some financial markets in the United States, coupled with G7 financial meetings starting Saturday in Europe, we wonder how well many gold shorts (or simply those with underweighted gold holdings) will be sleeping. With gold rising $4 off its lows today just prior to the close of trading for the weekend, things could look interesting next week. It's not too late to call Centennial today to lock in your claim of gold at prices within whisper-distance of 22-year lows. A great bargain for uncertain times....particularly as the U.S. "strong dollar" policy now seems to be a thing of the past.

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (02/16/01; 12:24:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 48407)
Bully Brothers
Yet another air strike on Iraq by the US and UK in the name of the UN. At least I think it is in the name of the UN. It has been so long now, and coincides with whatever unpleasantness is wanted to be yanked from the court of public opinion, one needs a flow chart to keep it straight. If even that would help.

I hope we are witnessing the final days of such illegal and immoral participation by the US. (I know I am a dreamer.) This stuff goes on all the time over there, yet is only publicized in the US to divert public opinion from something else. That "something else" is cause for concern. Forcing a "peace" or enforcing a "truce" will always fail if the belligerents remain, well, belligerent. What a waste of lives, materiel, time, honor, good will, and FUTURE!

Does anyone remember the "Peace Dividend"? I heard a whole lot about it, but was it ever on the books? I also heard GW a few days back not ruling out more deployments (if in the nations interest) and not mentioning a word about bringing the troops home already committed to "peacekeeping". Since when are troops necessary to keep the peace? Has it ever worked anywhere?

GW strikes me as nothing but a less polished version of his father. I knew there would be problems when I saw his father and Lee Atwater duel each other with electric guitars at an inaugural gala. Read my lips, it has been down hill ever since.

Chris Powell (02/16/01; 11:59:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 48406)
South Africa waking up to attack on the rand
1:16p ET Friday, February 16, 2001

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

A few weeks ago GATA Chairman Bill Murphy told you how the big bullion banks, short irrecoverable amounts of gold, seemed to be speculating against the South African rand, as they seemed to have done against the Australian dollar, to drive down the local currency and induce gold mining companies to sell more gold forward.

Murphy made a big issue of this during his recent trip to South Africa.

The following story from today's edition of Business Times in Cape Town suggests that South Africa is beginning to recognize the problem.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

Penalise speculators, says Standard Bank economist

By James Lamone
Business Times, Cape Town, South Africa
Friday, February 16, 2001

Johannesburg -- Finance minister Trevor Manuel's budget speech should include penalties for banks that receive government business but speculate against the local currency, Iraj Abedien, the group economist for Standard Bank, said yesterday.

Abedien recommended that Manuel require financial groups to adhere strictly to corporate governance ethics, especially those acting as government agents in public sector tenders, bond issues, and privatisation.

He said rumors that moved the currency market had emanated from international financial institutions that were beneficiaries of government business. These institutions, with large currency holdings, had them bet against the local currency.

"It's right in a free market to say that unless you comply
with good corporate business [ethics] you won't do business with us�"

"It's time South Africa and the minister of finance took a
hard position on businesses that have it both ways," Abedien said.

At the beginning of the year, the rand came under speculative attack during a period of law volume trading that took it to a record low against the dollar.

Many traders identified the reason as concern over the possible delay of Tellman's initial public offering, scheduled for the last quarter of this year. They also identified speculation that Manuel would stand down as minister for a job with the World Bank.

Abedien said speculation in January had sprung from three banks in London and New York. "You have to put them on notice in some form or other," he said. The best way was for the government to insist on rules of fair play. If it was meeting its budget deficit and following prudent policies, banks with which it did business should also follow corporate governance ethics.

Abedien urged the government to tell international banks "If you are caught doing certain things, you will pay heavy penalties."

If an independent hedge fund manager speculated, nothing could be done, he said.

But he pointed out that ethical problems arose if financial houses with associations with South Africa, or involved in a bond issues, were also involved in speculation.

He recommended that steps be taken to reduce currency volatility by closing down the Reserve Bank's forward book by issuing bonds or using other financial instruments: "The Achilles Heel of the macroeconomic policy is the forward book of the Reserve Bank."

-END-

Journeyman (02/16/01; 11:58:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 48405)
Those stupid white people in D.C. unfortunately haven't disappointed me @ALL

About an hour ago, the arrogant elitist D.C. ****heads bombed targets in the outskirts of Baghdad, Iraq.

This is outside even the so-called no-fly zone ridiculously claimed by the Yankees and the Brits.

This is being done to a country that ships most of it's oil here. It's also a country that has, according to the CIA, FBI, etc., a capacity to deliver biologicals - - - they already have operatives in place and on the ground here in the united States.

This is also the country that has stopped accepting dollars for their oil.

If you want to see how the American propaganda machine works, watch the coverage of this evil act, and listen to what they show and the words they use to mask it.

Journeyman

SHIFTY (02/16/01; 11:56:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 48404)
Just heard this news
USA, BRITS BEGIN STRATEGIC AIR ATTACK ON IRAQ

Chris Powell (02/16/01; 11:47:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 48403)
Trail Guide and GATA
Dear Trail Guide:

Thanks so much for yours of today outlining
your views on GATA. I do understand your
perspective, and I had to laugh with your
metaphor likening GATA to a Greenpeace boat
circling a battleship. Yes, we are very small
and they are very big. But we felt we had to
try to do whatever we could do, and when we
got started we did not have your confidence
in the inevitability of gold's recovery, in
part because we did not have your perception,
which you have graciously shared here. I
think we both can be right, more or less --
but the sooner, the better!

All good fortune to you too, my friend.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

SHIFTY (02/16/01; 11:45:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 48402)
from GATA
A press release from the company.

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, Feb. 16 (PRNewswire) -- Gold Fields
Limited today announced that it had closed out the last of its
remaining hedge positions.

Chris Thompson, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Gold Fields
said: "Gold Fields is now totally unhedged, which is an affirmation
of our policy in this regard."

Gold Fields bought back 160,000 ounces of gold forward sales at an
average spot price of US$256.10 per ounce, to generate a net profit
of approximately US$4.5 million.

The hedge position was held by Gold Fields Ghana (71-percent owned)
and was required by lenders to the Tarkwa Gold Mine in terms of
potential debt covenant obligations.

As a consequence of closing out the hedges and given the substantial
cash that has been built up in Gold Fields Ghana, it has also been
decided to retire all or a substantial portion of the remaining
project loan of US$25 million held by Gold Fields Ghana.

"We thought this was an opportune time to close out the last of our
hedges, given the current weakness in the gold price, which we
believe is not sustainable," said Thompson.

Gold Fields Limited is one of the world's largest gold producers,
with approximately 4 million ounces of gold production per annum, 145
million ounces of mineral resources, and reserves of 70 million
ounces. Gold Fields is focused on increasing value at its existing
operations and on international growth. In addition to being listed
on the Johannesburg (GFI), London, Paris, and Swiss Stock Exchanges,
Gold Fields trades on Nasdaq (GOLD) through an American Depositary
Receipt programme and on the Brussels Stock Exchange through an
International Depositary Receipt programme.

-END-

SHIFTY (02/16/01; 11:34:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 48401)
gold
Kitco seems to be flat line since noon. Was today a short day? No pun intended.

$hifty

TheStranger (02/16/01; 11:26:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 48400)
ET
I know better than to try to change your mind, ET. My motive was really just to set the record straight, which I believe I have done. Thanks.

ET (02/16/01; 11:13:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 48399)
Stranger
http://www.mises.org/humanaction.asp

Hey Stranger - where you been hiding? <g>

You wrote;

"ET - Forgive my butting in, but Samuelson is right. I recently read Peter L. Bernstein's new book, "The Power of Gold".
He deals with this subject in considerable detail. During the Hoover era it was common policy by central banks all around
the world, including our own, to raise interest rates to stem the outflow of gold. This of course was precisely opposite
what they should have been doing, given the global economic contraction which was taking place."

It's a shame Stranger, I've not convinced you to read the Austrians. As ORO stated below, the problem is malinvestment, not the level of interest rates. Throw out your Keynesian and monetarist texts partner. The government won't be able to save the economy, it is the cause of the problem, not the solution.

"It is also precisely
opposite the strategy being employed by our current Federal Reserve, which pretty much guarantees that this time we
shall have a very different result."

The Fed is attempting to address the situation as you recommend. Are they not adding to the money supply at record rates? I'm sure you'll find they will not succeed in the reflation you believe to be imminent. More money is not the prescription. Bankruptcy of non-profitable entities will be the only thing that puts the economy back into balance.

Black Blade (02/16/01; 11:11:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 48398)
RE: Old Yeller
The fun has only just begun...

Thanks for the link. It is quite funny and yet disheartening. These people are facing a fundamental change in their life-styles and won't face reality. Oh yeah, socialism - that would do it. It does not address the problem of the NG shortage though. There is no parachute to be found. They are too deep in this mess anyway. The quoted advocate Harvey Rosenfield is a well known socialist and has been in the media over the last few months touting the utilities as the price-gouging bandits. Actually I think that he only seeks attention. He refuses to address the lack of deregulation that brought this problem to the forefront. He also blames the other states for not being providers of cheap energy to The People's Republik of Kalifornia. The major problem of course has been the refusal of the state's special interests to built power generation facilities such as nuclear. They have also refused drilling for oil off several blocks off the Santa Barbara coast. There are several NG fields in central Kalifornia. These are now special "protected areas." I have a difficult time feeling any sympathy for these Grasshoppers. The prevailing attitude is as described in the article. I saw a news segment with "Man in the Street" interviews and it was discouraging to say the least. One young women who appeared to be sipping a cool drink at an outdoor caf� said: "Why should we pay, it's their (the utilities) problem." The typical response was that the whole energy crisis was contrived to raise prices. It's a virtual plague of locusts (Grasshoppers) in the state. Just wait until the recession hits hard. It's going to get really "interesting." Again - Thanks.

- Black Blade

WW Oracle (02/16/01; 11:10:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 48397)
Oro - Mortgages
So essentially financial intermediaries and GSE's are no longer competing with the Fed over these matters, but are currently part of the whole credit system.

That just leaves me wondering why Governor Meyer didn't answer my question directly.

ORO (02/16/01; 10:34:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 48396)
WW Oracle - significance
The market can call the GSEs on credit quality, and disount their traded equity according to suspected book manipulations. In the absence of such a discount, and with the presence of Buffet as investor in Fannie, the problems are not quite serious. The only time the GSEs are in trouble is when the Fed chokes them off with a spread to mortgage rates that causes them to liquify their book.

This was what had occurred last year as the Fed pushed rates past 6.5% (nearly 7% on the Eurodollar market) and left the GSEs with no room to expand at interest rates around 7-7.5%, since the potential default rate (not current default rate but the historical maximum in post WWII USA) of primary mortgages is at 0.6% and the cost of credit allocation and securitization for Fannie is just under 1% - which leads them to substantial discomfort at spreads less than 1.5%. They needed mortgage rates to go up to 8.5% in order to provide the necessary cushion. But at that level, there were fewer takers. At the current levels, the GSEs can borrow at 4.5% and lend at 7%, very profitable.

Re - Samuelson

Wrong as always. Central banks needed to retain solvency, which is what preventing gold outflows is all about. Their response of raising interest rates was appropos. Their prior behavior in holding interest rates too low after WWI was the source of malinvestment that caused instability later. Raising rates was the right thing to do in order to stop further reserve losses (and the resulting iliquidity of banking) and in order to pull down into bankruptcy the portion of the economy that was weak, together with the banks that made the bad investments, and bring it into stronger hands. The monetarist analysis was bunk, and the consensus Samuelson cites is an expression of political position, not an economic analysis.

Old Yeller (02/16/01; 10:16:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 48395)
For Black Blade
http://consumerwatchdog.org/utilities/pr/pr001152.php3

Would've,could've'should've.

Oh,those nasty bandits!

Too bad we don't have a Siberia to send them to,maybe Alaska will do.

WW Oracle (02/16/01; 09:54:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 48394)
ORO - the Fed & Mortgages
Agreed! However, I do not think the power to deal in the mortgage repo market is quite the same as "Regulation X"'s powers to set terms for down payments and years of amortization of NEW loans directly.

I'm not quite sure why this difference makes me uneasy, but it does. Doesn't repo market control implicitly assume that the books of the GSE's are in good order? Yet there have been problems with their accounting in the past.

Old Yeller (02/16/01; 09:50:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 48393)
I'll have the hyper-inflation buffet,please
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/milhouse021701.html

Wow,what a difference a day makes.

Looks like the "inflation is dead" brigade is going to have it's work cut out for it.The old reliable Ministry of Truth(BLS)seems to be somewhat un-cooperative all of a sudden.

Let the games continue,looks like we've scored a tactical advantage.

It appears that Steve Saville and Trail Guide share some similiar thoughts.

TheStranger (02/16/01; 09:38:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 48392)
ET
ET - Forgive my butting in, but Samuelson is right. I recently read Peter L. Bernstein's new book, "The Power of Gold". He deals with this subject in considerable detail. During the Hoover era it was common policy by central banks all around the world, including our own, to raise interest rates to stem the outflow of gold. This of course was precisely opposite what they should have been doing, given the global economic contraction which was taking place. It is also precisely opposite the strategy being employed by our current Federal Reserve, which pretty much guarantees that this time we shall have a very different result.

ORO (02/16/01; 09:19:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 48391)
WW Oracle - Fed and the mortgage
The Fed had that power introduced in 1999 in "preparation for y2k". Not surprisingly, the Fed has retained this power in order to deal with liquidity problems more effectively now that tradeable treasury debt in relation to GDP and as a portion of total debt has fallen steeply: about 1 tril out of 28 tril, as opposed to 2 tril out of 17 tril in the early 90s.

The mechanism for transmission of Fed policy regarding mortgage securities is through the repo market (cash flows and principal underlying this market are dominated by the agency securities), and through the purchase and sale of agency commercial paper. Also, the banks are allowed wide discretion as to what they offer the Fed for security to back liquidity draws at the funds window. This includes agencies, which are chosen for this purpose because of their having an obvious market value and high liquidity.

The purchase of agency commercial paper allows the Fed to affect directly the relative interest rate available to the GSEs vs. general money market rates (in which market the GSE's paper is the largest component), in the guise of affecting money market rates.

By buying GSE paper, the Fed increases the market's preference for GSE paper and allows the GSEs to put more mortgages on their books - and thus pocket the interest rate differential rather than sell the mortgages on the market. Because of this, as much as Fed determined rates in the GSE component of the Money Markets and Fed Funds are lower than those in the mortgage markets, the GSEs can expand the portion of mortgages on its books relative to those in the markets, by witholding new supply - which drives rates down in the mortgage market.

Agreed?

Mexpat (02/16/01; 09:01:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 48390)
Trail Guide
Thank you, Sir, for your reply to my question of 2/11 #47986. Your thoughts and Randy's comments have once again helped to clarify my understanding of how the gold scenario may well unfold.

I tend to share your vision of the future of gold and plan to continue to accumulate physical as the paper price declines. Of course, there is no way for me to know when the price of physical will unlink from the paper price and how low this paper price will eventually drop.

I started to accumulate physical again in late 1997 at around $325 oz. (Seems I remember folks saying then that I'd better buy some fast as it would never, never go any lower (smile).) My personal program has been to shift another 5% of my assets into physical metal with each $25 drop in the paper price, buying on a scale down, and keeping cash available (now largely in Euros) to add to my position if the price continutes to fall. I do still hold some stock positions in gold, silver, PGM and energy producers (there is some possibility that we may be wrong about how this will all work out) but physical is looking better and better to me. Looks like it's about time to buy some more....

I appreciate your posts....Thanks again.

WW Oracle (02/16/01; 08:54:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 48389)
Shocking PPI and housing starts
ORO, this may indeed be the start of stagflation. The Federal Reserve doesn't control mortgage credit; Congress removed this power ("Regulation X") from the Fed a half-century ago.

Fannie Mae et al appear to control this market. I do not know of any constraints on their ability to create mortgage credit.

Last year I asked a Fed governor whether their lack of control of mortgage credit could become a problem. Didn't the Fed wish it still had control of mortgage credit? The Fed and "Fannie" may work at cross-purposes, nullifying (or exaggerating) the effects of monetary policy.

Are we seeing the result of such conflicts in today's numbers? The extent of the Fed governor's concern was such that he avoided answering my question, deftly changing the subject.

ET (02/16/01; 08:49:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 48388)
Robert Samuelson
http://www.msnbc.com/news/525949.asp

From the article;

"Fortunately, some major differences also
separate then from now. For one, government is
bigger. This makes more room for tax cuts or
spending increases. As important, the world is
no longer on the gold standard. Back then,
paper currencies were backed by gold reserves.
As Meltzer shows in a recent paper, this gold
standard was unstable. The United States and
France accumulated much of the world's gold
(55 percent by 1929), because exchange rates
were unrealistic and trade flows were lopsided.
Without ample gold, other countries couldn't
easily expand their economies.
"Once the Depression started, fears that
countries would "go off gold" made matters
worse. Countries tried to protect their gold
stocks. They kept interest rates too high so that
speculators wouldn't convert investments into
gold. And they issued too little paper money to
defeat bank runs by panicky depositors. Bank
failures spiraled up; spending and global trade
spiraled down. The Depression went global and
fed on itself through less trade and more
pessimism. Only when countries left gold
(Britain in 1931, the United States in 1933 and
France in 1936) did the Depression begin to
abate.
"Highly simplified, this is the scholarly
explanation of the Depression. It emerged only
after years of grinding research. The consensus
seems good news. Gone is the mechanism (the
gold standard) that spread the Depression
around the globe. If there's not a modern
counterpart, then the U.S. slump shouldn't drag
down most other countries and trigger a
destructive chain reaction of weaker trade,
investment and confidence. Unfortunately, that's
still a big "if.""

Har! Good to see "economists" like Bob Samuelson and his cohorts at Newsweek grinding out the research. You gotta love "consensus"! I'm sure we'll hear next how the gold standard was responsible for racism, domestic violence and AIDS. Go Bob!

TheStranger (02/16/01; 08:33:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 48387)
Year on Year PPI Now Up 4.8%
Now that Alexis Hermann and her cronies have vacated the Labor Department, we may be getting a truer inflation picture for a while. Up until this month, the motive in delivering these numbers was to make the Clinton economy look good. The motive now will be to take as much of the inflation blame as possible away from Bush by exposing it very early on. I am not saying there is some grand conspiracy here, just that the benefit of any doubts in compiling these numbers will now shift to the other direction.

Meanwhile, trailing twelve month PPI is now 4.8%! We will have to see how many analysts continue to deny this cold hard reality. I don't know how much more it will take to wake everybody up, but today's report is obviously a big step in the right direction.

SALMON (02/16/01; 08:15:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 48386)
Judge for yourself

For anyone who doubts the gold market is manipulated here is another example of media manipulation.

http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/WireFeedRedirect?slug=0118160545.txt&date=20010118&archive=enews&cf=GlobeInvestor/config

Headline

Nortel Networks Reports Record 2000, Capped with Strong Results for the Fourth Quarter

Quote from link

"Nortel Networks recorded a net loss applicable to common shares of US$3.47 billion, or US$1.17 per share, for 2000."

http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/WireFeedRedirect?cf=GlobeInvestor/config&date=20010215&archive=roc&slug=2001-02-15T234854Z_01_N15321246_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-MINERALS-PLACERDOME-EARNS-COL

Headline

Placer Dome Posts Fourth-Quarter Loss on Writedowns

Quote from link

"Placer said cash flow from operations totaled $390 million, or $1.19 per share, compared with $346 million, or $1.06 a share in 1999. Mine operating earnings increased to $441 million in 2000, up from $339 million in 1999, mainly due to an increased contribution from the Zaldivar copper mine in Chile."

Knallgold (02/16/01; 08:08:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 48385)
TrailGuide,the valley,a rhetoric question!?
Assuming it is less foggy than in Londontown on our hike today,blue sky,clear view,the big valley ahead of us: can you already see details of the landscape on the otherside?

ET (02/16/01; 08:07:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 48384)
Invisible Hand

You quoted;

"The numbers were way above expectations from analysts polled by Reuters, who before the report was released had
estimated that producer prices rose only 0.3 percent and core prices inched 0.1 percent higher last month."

Perhaps these "analysts" missed the election returns. Isn't this the first set of data released by the new administration? Maybe the outgoing administration had been "saving up" a few years worth of stuff to surprise the new guys. <g>

ET (02/16/01; 07:58:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 48383)
Lew Rockwell
http://www.lewrockwell.com/rockwell/super-rich.html

From the article;

"In a man bites dog story, some of America's richest men have joined together to
oppose one of the best ideas in years: cutting or repealing the estate tax. Investor
Warren Buffett, Bill's dad William Gates, anti-capitalist speculator George Soros, lefty
ice-cream magnate Ben Cohen, at least two Rockefellers, and many others, have
signed an ad that decries the proposed tax cuts on many spurious grounds.

"Gates in particular says that if he had time he would found and run an organization
called Millionaires for the Estate Tax. Coming from a man who heads a foundation
with $20 billion to burn, that is an interesting comment. He is purporting to speak for
people with a small fraction of the wealth he has at his disposal. The existence of
billionaires is a wonderful testament to the glories of the capitalist system, but let us
not forget that many of them are loony tunes on issues outside their core business."

The Invisible Hand (02/16/01; 07:57:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 48382)
We 'want' inflation, yes?
Friday February 16, 8:36 am Eastern Time
U.S. producer prices skyrocket in January
WASHINGTON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - U.S. producer prices shot up at their fastest pace in more than a decade in January, the government said on Friday in a report suggesting the threat of inflation may force the Federal Reserve to take a more cautious approach in cutting interest rates.

The Producer Price Index -- a key gauge of wholesale inflation at the farm and factory gate -- jumped 1.1 percent in January after a 0.2 percent increase in December, the Labor Department said. That was the largest increase in the PPI since September 1990, when wholesale prices rose 1.3 percent.

Excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, the closely watched core rate soared 0.7 percent last month, the biggest increase since a 1.0 percent gain in December 1998. Core prices rose a mere 0.1 percent in December 2000.

The numbers were way above expectations from analysts polled by Reuters, who before the report was released had estimated that producer prices rose only 0.3 percent and core prices inched 0.1 percent higher last month.

Turnaround (02/16/01; 07:23:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 48381)
Red Ink Sea to the East
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Nikkei flirting with pre-bubble level,

Where/what are crude goods? CRB is down to 222.

ORO (02/16/01; 06:56:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 48380)
Crude goods up 14%
Ouch.

But we have seen this in the supermarket. As interest rates were raised, people dumped their inventory. Once inventory was cleared, there was a shortage. The shortage raised prices.

But 14% in one month? There must be some sort of error? perhaps not!

DaveC (02/16/01; 06:51:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 48379)
Add in PPI and Housing
and the dollar is down against Euro, Swissy and Yen. Should be intereesting.

Didn't J Baker III make a similiar statement in 1987?

DaveC (02/16/01; 06:47:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 48378)
Sec O'Neill is having an effect
on the markets.

Futures are sinking fast on his "weak dollar" (?) statements.

TBond futures down 11 ticks (about 1/3 $)
DOW futures down 95.
NASDAQ 100 down 65
S&P down 16

Could be a lousy options expiry Friday.

ORO (02/16/01; 06:44:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 48377)
Shocking PPI and housing
Market in a state of shock. Don't know how to take down these numbers. With a shaker full of salt or with a shot of tequila. Or perhaps a snort of coke.

Housing starts up strongly to 1.655 mil instead of consensus expectations down mildly to 1.555. PPI blew out all estimates with the "core" at 0.7% rather than the expected 0.3%.

Welcome to early stagflation phase I, housing boom and energy crisis. For historic reference take the housing boom of 1972-75, which had been aided by the stock market boom of 69-72, and the evacuation of financial holdings in 1973-5 a.k.a. "the" energy crisis. Remember that capacity closures result from high energy costs. Capacity closures create shortages, shortages drive prices higher.

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape (02/16/01; 06:43:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 48376)
POG $253!!!!
This free fall is exciting. With all the talk of gold conspiracy theories out there, let me add this one to the list. This current free fall in the POG is the fault of NASA. They sent that stupid space probe to land on that dumb asteroid. It was expected to be another dumb NASA rock. Unfortunately it turned out to be a giant dirty gold nugget. NASA will now initiate the space probes secondary mission by activating its thrusters to move the nugget into earth's orbit. Once in orbit, NASA (when in a fight for funding) will take pot shots at the nugget to allow for a controlled entry and economical smelting of this space gold into the world market. The designated ocean entry site will be posted as such to dissuade fishing boats from other countries from being in this area. (The limits of this area will also change to accommodate any impact site.)

Doubt, if you must. Only time will tell! (Yawn)

Trail Guide (02/16/01; 06:16:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 48375)
Comment

Chris Powell (02/15/01; 20:29:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 48340) Trial Guide's latest

---------- If GATA can help overthrow the gold paper market, will you not welcome it? --------

Yes, I welcome and support your efforts. There are two ways to overthrow this and understanding the politics leads to different strategies. One would be to do just as Gata is doing. The other is to buy gold and stand aside.

I fully well understand your position, the mines and certainly their shareholders should be the one's behind it, financially. This should be your source. On the other side, the fabricating industry and gold advocates, such as myself, are caught in an emotional trap by helping undermine and destroy the very process that gives them cheap product. You follow my drift?

It's kind of like supporting a local tax increase for education and environmental work; it's the right thing but will cost you in the long run. (smile) Still, we must appreciate the political thrust in a Macro view. Advocates need a clean break to all this and without public pressure from a leading point group (Gata) that break could take on a mud like consistency for several years.

I felt that it was not time yet to take real action and education was still the best venue. However, your opening presented itself and you acted in your best knowledge. Please understand, that if your action stalls, there will come a much better opening, later. You simply must wait for it.

I give the odds of this (ECB policy) carrying thru at 99%, but if it did not (1%) we would be left with a crippled industry and no free market. In this atmosphere, all pricing would be Black Market in the extreme and completely negate all the good functions of gold. A mess for everyone.

Still, given the strength of their (ECB / BIS) drive, your legal activities may have not caused a stall in the process; that being allowing the system to inflate itself into a shutdown. Your whole recent attack, while seeming strong from your standpoint, is like greenpeace circling a battleship (smile). If they decide to gun the props, your efforts will be in managing the wake more so than damaging the ship or it's purpose.

Understand, your actions still serve as a huge public service advertisement, regardless of it's success in court. So, in that light, "keep talking Bill"!! Your shots may be aimed at the real good guys in this (from a physical gold advocate's position), but that flock of turkeys standing behind them must run for cover it the big boys duck! Ha! Ha! (big grin)

Good fortune, my friends

TrailGuide
(gone for the day)

Belgian (02/16/01; 05:20:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 48374)
OOOOHHHHHHH...Neill
Europ and Japan have to take drastic action to support a US-economy, turnaround ! Please, gentlemen re-inflate our bubble. Oh dear !
Or let me organise a kind new currency-dance (war). Is this the prelude to Panic ? First interest rates, than currency magic and last but not the least Re-INFLATE the big circus.
Perfect scenario for the yellow people.

Note the correct timing of Anglogold-hedge-overhang, announcement ! Pafffff POG down ! IMO, an over-reaction on US$/Euro rise. Happy to notice that POG isn't death after all and that it is still able to slide substantially.
Hate to repeat this terrible idea again : POG needs to implode with lot of noise and poehaa. Laclustre and dolldrum price-behaviour is favouring POG-indifference.
A shocking LOW goldprice is a "must" and very cheap way to force a mass of ignorants to consider and "BUY" gold physically. The under 200$ zone, will do the trick ! Emotions and mass psycho, remember. A horizontal side-way move is certainly prolonging apathy towards gold. And an implosion is a practical outlet for the shorters as well.
Give them what they are asking for, fast and destructive.
After all, fortunes are made on ruins.

POG under 200$ is (IMO) the excuse par excellence for having to buy physical. In french : incontournable !
Try it yourself to dig up one ounce of gold with a 200$ in your pocket : impossible, isn't it. This simplistic logic will force all goldhaters to act.

Reculer pour mieux sauter ...a few steps back for being able to jump further is necessarry for POG. If interest rates do not work...re-inflation will inevitably follow the actual deflation bias and a tanking dollar is the immediate result or cause. The gold-alternative is with a very LOW POG in pole position for take off. Do not put this opportunity at risk, with postponed gold-accumulation.

If you believe in a gold-cartel-oligopoly (cabal) that is able to organise the gold-raid of the century...than little is necesarry to cinvince you of the possibility of the controverse of this massive raid. Manipulation has also two sides on the medal. The core mechanism remains : excessions in price movement. Whatever the loadtrucks of arguments or reasons. Am I too pragmatic ?

Canuck (02/16/01; 04:55:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 48373)
@ Megatron
Thanks for the 240 number.

I am very nervous of cracking the $252.50 (or thereabouts) from the low last year.

It will be an interesting day!!

Mr Gresham (02/16/01; 04:52:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 48372)
We Happy Few
http://web.uvic.ca/shakespeare/Annex/DraftTxt/H5/H5_F/H5_FScenes/H5_F4.3.html
West. O that we now had here
But one ten thousand of those men in England, [2260]
That doe no worke to day.
King. What's he that wishes so?
My Cousin Westmerland. No, my faire Cousin:
If we are markt to dye, we are enow
To doe our Countrey losse: and if to liue,
The fewer men, the greater share of honour.
Gods will, I pray thee wish not one man more.
By Ioue, I am not couetous for Gold,
Nor care I who doth feed vpon my cost:
It yernes me not, if men my Garments weare; [2270]
Such outward things dwell not in my desires.
But if it be a sinne to couet Honor,
I am the most offending Soule aliue.
No 'faith, my Couze, wish not a man from England:
Gods peace, I would not loose so great an Honor,
As one man more me thinkes would share from me,
For the best hope I haue. O, doe not wish one more:
Rather proclaime it ( Westmerland) through my Hoast,
That he which hath no stomack to this fight,
Let him depart, his Pasport shall be made, [2280]
And Crownes for Conuoy put into his Purse:
We would not dye in that mans companie,
That feares his fellowship, to dye with vs.
This day is call'd the Feast of Crispian:
He that out-liues this day, and comes safe home,
Will stand a tip-toe when this day is named,
And rowse him at the Name of Crispian.
He that shall see this day, and liue old age,
Will yeerely on the Vigil feast his neighbours,
And say, to morrow is Saint Crispian. [2290]
Then will he strip his sleeue, and shew his skarres:
Old men forget; yet all shall be forgot:
But hee'le remember, with aduantages,
What feats he did that day. Then shall our Names,
Familiar in his mouth as household words,

Harry the King, Bedford and Exeter,
Warwick and Talbot, Salisbury and Gloucester,
Be in their flowing Cups freshly remembred.
This story shall the good man teach his sonne:
And Crispine Crispian shall ne're goe by, [2300]
From this day to the ending of the World,
But we in it shall be remembred;
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers:
For he to day that sheds his blood with me,
Shall be my brother: be he ne're so vile,
This day shall gentle his Condition.
And Gentlemen in England, now a bed,
Shall thinke themselues accurst they were not here;
And hold their Manhoods cheape, whiles any speakes,
That fought with vs vpon Saint Crispines day. [2310]

Pandagold (02/16/01; 04:51:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 48371)
Le Sin

No, I did see they were, as you say, copy paste jobs, but they contained stuff relating to what people are saying.

I will share with you a tip I use when I read most of this crap put out by politicians, financial adminstrators, financial pundits attached to media etc.,

Before I start to read, or listen if it is TV, I ask myself the following (yes, I talk to myself, I know then I have an ear) 'Now what do they want me to believe today, and why do they want me to believe it) Usually, it doesn't take too long to figure it out. Once you get on their wavelength, they become reasonably predictable - trust me

Best of luck, 'down under' have fun

( I watch the Aussie market every night, till my eyes start to close - I have to, I have some Aussie mines. Australia has a great future - again trust me

LeSin (02/16/01; 04:24:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 48370)
Panagold @ assumed understanding
Sir
Thank you for your words of wisdom, however you stated that you understand my reasons, motives, or words to that effect. Miraculous powers indeed, you must have. Fact is, if you re-read my posts, you will UNDERSTAND that I did not offer comments or opinions. The posts were copy and paste jobs from news sources and Gold Eagle sites.

No harm no foul, Sir - I understand the advice in your post and will take it on board, it may serve some purpose, not yet seen. "S"

Pandagold (02/16/01; 04:22:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 48369)
Le Sin and All
To enlarge on my previous post. By watching what is done, and observing closely ( which is fact not speculation), and getting into the mind of your enemy, you can get some idea of where the next move will be.

It's fun. if you treat it has a game, and you are less likely to go climbing up the wall.

Have fun!

Pandagold (02/16/01; 04:14:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 48368)
Le Sin

I read your posts, I uderstand where you are and how you feel, but, for the good of your mental health and your piggy bank, and I say this from serious concern, STOP listening to the rhetoric - you know, he said this, he said that. It changes from day to day.

How did we fool the Germans into believing we would land at a different point on D Day - even when we were almost at the beach - we had fed them so much misleading information that they thought it was a feint.

In spite of what some may believe, the Germans are an intelligent nation. They devised the Enigma machine - but they still got duped.
WATCH WHAT THEY (TPTB) DO NOT WHAT YHEY SAY!

I wish you well, I've been there.

LeSin (02/16/01; 03:56:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 48367)
Washington Agreement Could Be Extended - Yes/No
http://www.miningweekly.co.za/mineweek2.nsf/news/290CC61A451252CD422569F4004D6EDB?opendocument

Washington deal could be extended

Terence Creamer
Mining Weekly Deputy Editor
Gold market guru Kelvin Williams, of Anglogold, has predicted that the Washington Agreement - which regulates gold sales from the world's leading central banks - will be rolled over and possibly even extended to other areas of the gold market when it runs its term in three years.
The agreement has been a big stabiliser for the gold market, due to the fact that it has been signed by those banks which hold 80% of the world's official reserves.
Williams says that, while there were material flows of gold from the official sector in 2000 - in addition to the 400 t allowed under the Washington Agreement, there were sales by a number of smaller banks particularly from South America - central bank sales are no longer the worry they were.
"We have been encouraged by the agreement, because it has given us certainty in respect of a major part of the supply-and-demand equation.
"They have now become a source of balancing metal into the market and I think we can look forward to the agreement being absolutely and honestly adhered to by the signatories," Williams states.
Meanwhile, he foresees a "steady course" for the market
during 2001, adding that Anglogold will continue to manage its activities on that assumption. He says the speculators and hedge funds that remain in the gold market continue to lean against the price and still hold short position on the New York Commodities Exchange as elsewhere.
These short positions are significant enough to keep the price from rising, but Williams says it is encouraging to see that they are substantially smaller than they were 18 months ago.
"Steady physical demand continues to help to support the gold price, and our company is aggressively committed to doing what it can to keep that physical market healthy."
He also believes that the paper market is far less liquid which, he says, could work to gold's advantage at some stage.
"The few hedge funds that are speculating at present are inclined to lean against the price.
"But the day those speculators and investors, who sit on about 150 t short position in the New York Commodity Exchange, are caught short on the wrong side of their pain threshold, it will work to our benefit.
"We will then see the price move up substantially more sharply than might otherwise have been the case," Williams explains, adding that such a move was evident in February last year.
Williams reaffirmed Anglogold's commitment to hedging - one of the few gold producers to do so in the last quarter. Explaining his position on hedging, Williams argued: "We have to sell production at some stage and the fact that we are physically sold at the moment means we will be delivering into those positions, whether we sell that in September 2000 or September 2001.
"We prefer to choose when we sell our gold, rather than waiting for the lottery of selling only once it is in a bar."
He confirmed that Anglogold's hedge tonnage would rise in 2001, but pointed out that this was in line with anticipated production rises over the next five years.
"We are newly-invested in the Morila, Yatela and Geita projects and all of those required some price management and certainty."
He argues, too, that, over the next five years, Anglogold has more 'bluesky benefit' from the price going up than whole of Gold Fields production for the same period.
"We will, therefore, continue to manage the price through hedging in the short to medium term, but in the longer term we are
positive. In this tighter market, we cannot see a scenario where the price will not rise,"
�

LeSin (02/16/01; 03:08:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 48366)
OFFICIAL SOURCE - WEAKER $$$$ POLICY - FOA/TG "SPOT ON"
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010216/bs/economy_oneill_dc_1.html

Friday February 16 4:39 AM ET
O'Neill Remark Confuses Financial Markets

By Swaha Pattanaik

LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill was quoted on Friday as saying the United States was not actively following a strong dollar policy, throwing financial markets into confusion.

The policy, which has held that a strong dollar is in U.S. interests, underpinned the rally in U.S. financial assets during the second half of the 1990s.

``We are not pursuing, as it is often said, a policy of a strong dollar. In my opinion a strong dollar is the result of a strong economy,'' O'Neill said in an interview with Germany's Frankurter Allgemeine Zeitung, published a day before a Group of Seven industrial nations meeting in Palermo, Italy.

The dollar took an immediate hit on the comments, losing half a cent to the euro and nearly half a yen, but rebounded after the U.S. Treasury said that there had been no change in the strong dollar policy.

``There has been no change in a strong dollar policy at all,'' a U.S. Treasury spokesman said, adding Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill had not said anything different from before in an interview with Germany's Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

He added that the strong dollar was a reflection of the strong U.S. economy.

Fx Policy In Focus

Currency markets went on high alert when U.S. President George W. Bush (news - web sites) picked O'Neill for the top job at the Treasury, with speculation rife that the former chairman of aluminum giant Alcoa would be more sympathetic than his predecessors to the pain inflicted on U.S. exporters by a strong dollar.

But against a backdrop of slowing U.S. growth, traders became concerned that O'Neill would distance himself from a policy, which had been crafted and maintained by Robert Rubin, a former investment banker, and Lawrence Summers, an academic.

O'Neill sought to put such worries to rest after he said a month ago at his confirmation hearing before the Senate Finance Committee that there would be no sudden shift in the United States exchange-rate policy:

``I thought, in the interest of not wasting a lot of television footage, I should say at the very outset, I am in favor of a strong dollar. I can't imagine why anyone would think to the contrary.''

Intevention The Exception

O'Neill said in the FAZ interview that intervention in currency markets was not right in principle but there could be exceptions.

``To intervention I only want to say this much: In principle there should not be intervention in markets. But there can be exceptions,'' he was quoted as saying.

O'Neill said the U.S. Federal Reserve (news - web sites)'s one percentage point interest rate cut in January had been very useful but said he was not sure whether it would have an effect soon.

``I'm not sure whether we will soon see the first signs of a recovery in the economy or whether we will have a zero growth rate for some time,'' he said.

When asked whether the economy in the euro zone was weak, O'Neill answered by referring to the single currency:

``I don't understand all this talk about a weak euro. Who wants to say with certainty where the ``right'' rate for the euro against the dollar is?''

He said he had told Congress it was important to bring in President Bush (news - web sites)'s plans for a $1.6 trillion reduction in taxes as soon as possible.

O'Neill said the tax reform could be financed without eating into that portion of the U.S. budget surplus earmarked for social security and pensions.

But he signaled that this act of fiscal loosening was not the beginning of a trend.

``We must maintain discipline and not allow ourselves to fall into huge new spending programs,'' O'Neill said.

He said the financial markets would do well to price the future into their current calculations. ``At the moment the data shows that the market is assuming another rate cut. That is good for the economy,'' he said.

O'Neill reiterated his dislike for intervening to help other countries out of financial crises.

``In the future it will be important to show countries who threaten to fall into difficulties that the rest of the world will not be ready to help them.''

Asked whether the U.S. government would buy up private investments if there were further budget surpluses and no more debts to pay off, O'Neill said:

``That is a terrible idea. In a capitalist system like ours it is not the business of the government to own companies.''

LeSin (02/16/01; 02:59:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 48365)
FLASH - HOT NEWS!!!! US$ TO WEAKEN!!!!!!!!!!
BUSH GOV TO ALLOW WEAK DOLLAR - IS THIS OFFICIAL?????
� Bush not following strong $US policy ...�
(eaglecs) Feb 16, 03:18

Can anyone from the USA confirm this. This was posted on my brokers home page as a late and breaking news item:

The Australian dollar rallied sharply through the US$0.5300 cent barrier late this afternoon, on reports that the US may allow the American dollar to weaken relative to other international currencies. If the news is confirmed tonight, the news could herald a shift in global currency flows away from the US, which is by far the world's largest net importer of capital.

According to newswire reports, the US Treasury Secretary, Mr O�Neill, was quoted in a German Daily paper that the Bush Administration was not following a policy of a strong US dollar. "We are not following, as is often said, a policy of a strong dollar," the paper.

Mr O�Neill added: "In my opinion a strong dollar is the result of a strong economy."

The reports reached screens at around 1750 AEST, causing a spike in the dollar from US$0.5279 to US$0.5215 and in the Euro from US$0.9060 to US$0.9115. At 1809 AEST, it was still holding above the US 53c barrier at US$0.5303/07.

Head of Currency sales at Citibank Australia, Mr Nigel Dobson commented: "I think the market was caught a bit short by the news, as the Aussie and the euro had weakened significantly over the last 48 hours."

"However, both the Aussie and the euro rallied strongly on the news, easing only slightly in subsequent trading," he added.

Mr Dobson was also guardedly optimistic over the outlook for the struggling currency, which has fallen nearly 5 US cents or 8.7% from its peak on 5 January this year.

"If the reports are confirmed, we could see more buying interest when the European markets open shortly."

Old Yeller (02/16/01; 02:30:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 48364)
Megatron;#48338

Greetings,fellow North Burnaby citizen.It truly is a small world.

Isn't it fitting that our fading socialist government,nearing the end of it's timeline(thanks,Trail Guide),is helping to bail out the People's Republic of Kalifornia.Gee,I sure hope they can pay us sometime,maybe we'll have to accept shares in Cisco Systems.

Old Yeller (02/16/01; 02:01:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 48363)
Those thick skinned GATA boys

Chris Powell;#48349,Chris,I really admire your response to Jack Milne's article in the South African Business Report.

Aside from bringing up the tired old(and false)mantra of"the demand for gold as a central bank asset is low and falling because of consistently low world inflation",he also insinuates that Bill Murphy,Reg Howe and associates are like a traveling band of snake oil salesmen.

How the man can just casually toss off such compelling evidence of,at the very least,inconsistencies(to be realistic),in the gold and gold derivative markets,especially living in the country he does,is shocking.To belittle the intelligence of all the South Africans who have contributed time and money to your cause and to hope that the National Union of Mineworkers won't be "taken in"by your campaign is offensive to say the least.

This individual callously refers to the 100,000 miners who have been "retrenched"as a result of the falling gold price due only to the deft handling of inflation by the central banks.Has this man not seen a graph of US money supply from 1995 on,does he really have a grasp of what inflation is?

Let's hope for a day when financial reporters such as this are similarily retrenched,due to less than objective coverage of complex issues.

Pandagold (02/16/01; 01:59:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 48362)
Chris Powell South African comment GOLD POG

YAWN!

Of course the falling gold price goes back some years. Do they think these agendas are made up on a day to day basis.

Moves are planned years ahead. Where this world will be in 20yrs time, save a natural disaster like a meteor colliding with earth, is more or less known by some - at least, well planned for.

Do they think the people moving things are amateurs?

The problem is, few people can think big enough. But the movers and shakers can.

Once again, the greatest conspiracy of all is the one to debunk conspiracies. Their mission will be achieved because people are so easily duped. Or maybe they don't like to see what is above the blanket, when they hear a noise in the bedroom.

While our focus is gold, and it it does a a large part to play in the scheme of things. All what is happening is not about Gold per se, but about Power. Gold is the key ingredient.

Go on everyone, have a go at Pandagold. It's always open season, and the masses are on your side. That's why 'THEY'
will ALWAYS win,

schippi (02/16/01; 01:33:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 48361)
Linear & Nonlinear 5 day POG forecast
http://www.SelectSectors.com/pog.gif
Ugly 5 day POG forecast

Simply Me (02/16/01; 01:29:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 48360)
@ Trail Guide @slingshot Gold from view of SmallTown USA
Hi Trail Guide,
Your signposts seem uncommonly clear and easy to read these days. Reading your recent posts on the forum and on the Golden Trail have been very exciting.
As I watch the POG sink, I feel like we are on the final stretch of this gold trail. Although, as someone who doesn't understand the difference between a 'put' and a 'short' (and, to mix metaphors, has no idea what Aces might be hiding up the big players' sleeves), I cannot yet see the end. It feels close. Months maybe?
Thank you so much for all your work, and your patience. And best of luck with your garden. There are few things in life as satisfying as growing something that's beautiful & delicious!

simply

@slingshot
Silver in all grades is selling like the proverbial hotcakes around here. Gold is not much in evidence. Low demand and small premiums make it unprofitable for a small-time coin dealer to tie up valuable capital and vault space with gold; especially when a phone call can still (at least for the moment) fill any order that walks in the door. Don't let that get you down about gold, though. When most people think about buying gold, it'll be too late.

simply

Pandagold (02/16/01; 01:12:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 48359)
Black Blade the old adage

Yes, it is an old adage, I think first attributed to Rothschild - 'buy when the blood is running in the streets'. The trouble is, he never said 'how high' - ankle deep, waist high = or maybe upto the neck.

Just wear your waiders, and hope it doesn't go much higher.

Black Blade (02/16/01; 01:11:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 48358)
Study predicts U.S. need for oil from Middle East will increase
http://www.msnbc.com/news/531169.asp?cp1=1

The report, conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a defense and foreign policy think tank here that includes moderates and conservatives from both parties, concludes that no breakthroughs in technology or energy conservation on the horizon will significantly reduce the world's dependency on oil, coal and other fossil-fuel energy over the next two decades.

Black Blade: The report also describes an America dependent on oil from what were described as beligerent nations such as Iran, Libya, and Iraq. We are headed for "Interesting Times."

Randy (@ The Tower) (02/16/01; 00:55:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 48357)
Black Blade and "bragging rights"....if you are into that thing
You comment.... "When gold plummeted to $252 and then rebounded on the WA announcement, many on these gold forums lammented not acquiring gold when it was a bargain..."

While it was only a small percentage of my physical holdings at that time (which have grown significantly since then due to various successes in my engineering and business endeavors coupled with the favorable gold acquisition exchange rates vs the dollars I earn), I must admit the great satisfaction that has sustained over the past 18 months from having made a purchase of gold on that lowest day. Whatever it takes...ounce by ounce as yet available day by day with each new low, I shall do what is required to carry the ultimate bragging rights to my grave.....when gold sells for thousands, I shall reflect on the day I had the foresight to buy at pennies. <big grin>

Yes...I am a shallow man, for all the world to see! (Therein lies the fun!)

got life?

(Long day. ZZZZzz z z z.....)

Randy (@ The Tower) (02/16/01; 00:39:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 48356)
Choices....
Today, given the nature of the gold price-discovery mechanism, I can either boost the PRICE OF GOLD by spending margin money to buy several long COMEX contracts on the April gold price;

OR

I can let the price languish, and selfishly choose instead to boost my tangible stake of PERSONAL WEALTH by spending that same quantity of money on physical gold for delivery to me here at The Tower.

This is what we call "a no brainer".

Thank you traders (for your validating participation) and miners (for your physical supply) for keeping this game alive!

Black Blade (02/16/01; 00:38:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 48355)
Survey: 5 Million Homes Need Help Paying Fuel Bills
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010215/ts/energy_costs_dc_1.html

Soaring prices for natural gas, heating oil and propane mean nearly 5 million poor American families may need government help paying winter heating bills, according to a survey released on Thursday.

Black Blade: However, they can take comfort that high energy costs are not calculated in the core rate of the CPI. Hey, we are reminded by the finest statisticians money can buy that inflation is "benign" so why whine about it?

Black Blade (02/16/01; 00:35:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 48354)
RE: Randy
Randy, You know the old adage of the "successful investor" is - "buy when there's blood in the streets." With all the negative views on gold, it takes a strong stomach and a fearless approach to do what many consider unthinkable. I don't approach gold as a speculative investment, but I do acquire gold as a diversifier and portfolio insurance. When gold plummeted to $252 and then rebounded on the WA announcement, many on these gold forums lammented not acquiring gold when it was a bargain and worried that they would not get another opportunity. Sometimes, opportunity does knock twice.

- Black Blade

Randy (@ The Tower) (02/16/01; 00:24:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 48353)
Thoughts on the lower price for gold
If you do not know either the final specific low price at which it will make its turn, nor how forcefully it will rebound at that turn, then you really cannot offer a valid reason for postponing your purchase another day...the turn, for all you know, could come tomorrow.

Yes, you can "afford" not to buy gold when "all is well in the world" on its way down, but can you afford not to have gold after the turn?

I think not. And deep down, you know this, too.

Black Blade (02/16/01; 00:14:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 48352)
WSJ Commodities Report
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/DJNews\4307691.htm
Snippit:

Frank McGhee, a dealer at Chicago trading firm Alliance Financial, said it was significant that one of the major trade houses that had been among the market's strongest supporters in recent weeks had turned around to become an aggressive seller.

But he expected a test of at least $250 an ounce in the spot gold price, which equated to $251.50 in the April futures. "It might take a short pause there, but the real question is what stops are underneath it," he said. "If we hold, it's a massive base. If we don't, it's 20 to 30 bucks to the downside."

Black Blade: The rumor is that Chase was the culprit that precipitated the selloff in gold yesterday. Currently gold is up +$1.10 in overseas trading. The Japanese and Hong Hong markets are down overnight and US market indice futures are down. Today could get "interesting" when NY markets open.

Randy (@ The Tower) (02/16/01; 00:10:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 48351)
Something to chew on as you wait for breakfast...M2 & 3 up thrity billion dollars
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010215/nat017569.html
I think these numbers speak for themselves...from the Fed's latest report on money supply.

Figures are expressed as $-billions
M1 = 1,104.8 . . . down 1.5
M2 = 5,029.6 . . . up 29.3
M3 = 7,232.7 . . . up 35.3

"How high's the flood of currency mamma?"
"Shut up and keep treading water!"

ViewYesterday's Discussion.

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