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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 8/16/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
SHIFTY
(08/16/00; 22:48:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 35063)
Do you like mysteries? A whodunnit? Well, we have just the story for you!
http://www.usmint.gov/kids/clubhouse/slimed/comiccapers.html
From the US Mint. A cartoon mystery ! (for little gold bugs)
Follow Inspector Collector and the rest of the h.i.p. pocket change palsô on an adventure to uncover who slimed Peter the Mint Eagle and his prized coin collection.
( $hifty: My guess ,Goldman Sachs)
TownCrier
(08/16/00; 22:37:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 35061)
More thoughts for Sir Cavan Man
You pondered, "Is it possible that large traders of gold bullion at the LBMA are as uninterested in the yellow metal as the typical American coin buyer?"
Try thinking of it this by considering it in terms of a more familiar setting. Imagine five banks in your neighborhood. It is then revealed to you that the number of checks or dollars being cleared or transacted through one of those banks has dropped by 27% from the previous month, down 41% from the volume one year ago. Would you view this as an impeachment of people's confidences in the dollars themselves, or of something else? What might cause this phenomenon for that particular bank, and what might be reasonably projected?
You also pondered over the presence of FOA and ANOTHER and their motives for sharing their considerable insights on such a public forum in full view of any conceivable official audience. To me, this does not seem materially different (other than the use of modern technology) than the endeavors of other pioneers and framers of economic policy such as J.M. Keynes--who was so bold <wink> as to publish books on his theories in the 1920s and 30s in a self-admitted effort to "revolutionise--in the course fo the next ten years--the way the world thinks about economic problems" [as stated in a letter to his friend G.B. Shaw] , to be boldly quoted in newspaper headlines that "Roosevelt is Magnificently Right" with regard to the position he took during the London Economic and Monetary Conference of June 1933, and in culmination of such efforts to come to hold sway over many of Roosevelt's New Dealers and thereby have a significant hand in shaping economic behavior for decades to come.
Although significant poicy events take shape behind closed doors upon leather chairs in smoke-filled rooms, it is inevitable that there would be public expressions for those with an eye to such matters, just as with Keynes books and headlines and lectures from Cambridge. It is also not to be overlooked that public expressions can be used to provide helpful leverage to unstick certain blockages within predominantly closed-room affairs.
I have no misgivings that the time is well-nigh to move a significant step beyond the limited vision of Keynes from that bygone era. Let's hope for nothing more than the institutional and offical capitulation to the natural forces of gold traded on a physical-only market. That will be more than adequate to make us gold advocates and owners all wealthy and, more importantly, STABLE...not like the here-today-gone-tomorrow dot.com ex-millionaires.
VanRip
(08/16/00; 21:03:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 35060)
TownCrier
TownCrier, In a recent post you reported that
"The South African investment bank Investec Group, which signed an agreement in June to supply the Peoples' Bank of
China with a minimum 15 tonnes of gold a year for an unlimited period, announced that the first two tonnes of gold have been shipped from Johannesburg to Shenzen. The gold was supplied by the Rand Refinery."
Do you know how the parties involved would arrive at a price for the gold? Would LBMA or Comex be involved in any way? And could some of the "big shorts" be using private/unreported arrangements similar to this to cover their positions?
Many thanks
SHIFTY
(08/16/00; 20:01:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 35059)
Noah, an old favorite
If Noah were alive today and lived in the United
States......
And the Lord spoke to Noah and said, "In one year, I
am going to make it rain and cover the whole earth
with water until all flesh is destroyed. But I want
you to save the righteous people and two of every kind
of
living things on the earth. Therefore, I am commanding
you to build an Ark." In a flash of lightning, God
delivered the specifications for the Ark. In fear and
trembling, Noah took the plan and agreed to build the
Ark. "Remember," said the Lord, "You must complete the
Ark and bring everything aboard in one year." Exactly
one year later, fierce storm clouds covered the earth
and all the seas of the earth went into a tumult. The
Lord saw that Noah was sitting in his front yard,
weeping. "Noah," He shouted. "Where is the
Ark?""Lord, please forgive me! "cried Noah." I did my
best, but there were big problems. First, I had to get
a permit for construction and your plans did not meet
the codes. I had to hire an engineering firm and
redraw the plans. Then I got into a fight with OSHA
over whether
or not the Ark needed a fire sprinkler system and
floatation devices. Then my neighbor objected,
claiming I was violating zoning ordinances by building
the Ark
in my front yard, so I had to get a variance from the
city planning commission. Then I had problems getting
enough wood for the Ark, because there was a ban on
cutting trees to protect the Spotted Owl. I finally
convinced the U.S.Forest Service that I needed the
wood to save the owls. However, the Fish and Wildlife
Service won't let me catch any owls. So, no Owls. The
carpenters formed a union and went out on strike. I
had to negotiate a settlement with the National Labor
Relations Board before anyone would pick up a saw or
hammer. Now I have 16 carpenters on the Ark, but still
no Owls. When I started rounding up the other animals,
I got sued by an animal rights group. They objected
to me only taking two of each kind aboard. Just when I
got the suit dismissed, the EPA notified me that I
could
not complete the Ark without filing an environmental
impact statement on your proposed flood. They didn't
take very kindly to the idea that they had no
jurisdiction over the conduct of the Creator of the
Universe. Then the Army Engineers demanded a map of
the
proposed new flood plain. I sent them a globe. Right
now, I am trying to resolve a complaint filed with the
Equal Employment Opportunity Commission that I am
practicing discrimination by not taking godless,
unbelieving people aboard. The IRS has seized my
assets, claiming that I'm building the Ark in
preparation to flee the country to avoid paying taxes.
I just got a notice from the state that I owe some
kind of user tax and failed to register the Ark as a
"recreational water craft." Finally, the ACLU got the
courts to issue an injunction against further
construction of the Ark, saying that since God is
flooding the earth, it is a religious event and,
therefore, unconstitutional. I really don't think I
can finish the Ark for another five or six years,"
Noah wailed. The sky began to clear, the sun began to
shine
and the sea began to calm. A rainbow arched across the
sky. Noah looked up hopefully... "You mean You are
not going to destroy the earth, Lord?"
"No," said the Lord, sadly. "I don't have to.
The government already has!"
$hifty
Cavan Man
(08/16/00; 19:15:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 35058)
Good morning CB2
No, I don't really care at all. You are absolutely right as it makes me no difference. It was just a question on my mind and I thought I would air it out for some discussion on a rather slow evening here.
PS: The Philly (not exchange nor City of Brotherly Love is best IMHO). Hope to tour the mint someday soon. Best 2U.
CoBra(too)
(08/16/00; 18:33:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 35057)
Hi - C-Man...
D'you really care? Buy, bury and be happy -cb2
Doesn't corrode, nor corrupt - except the corrupt, of course! (-; ? - ... good night...
Cavan Man
(08/16/00; 18:14:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 35056)
TownCrier
A question from left field....
Why do you think Another and FOA have shared all of their collective insights at gold discussion forums over the last several years? I am sure they know that all gold sites are monitored by US agencies like FBI etc. What they forecast certainly falls into the category of national security concerns? ORO once remarked that their messages were intended for other eyes and ears as well as the pedestrian PM investor. That makes sense. What is your take? Thanks...CM
Cavan Man
(08/16/00; 18:09:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 35055)
TownCrier
Is it possible that large traders of gold bullion at the LBMA are as uninterested in the yellow metal as the typical American coin buyer? Sales of gold Eagles are very depressed.
Cavan Man
(08/16/00; 18:06:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 35054)
CB2
Perhaps GOLD thinks, "better here than in Philadelphia".
Know where that quote comes from? Answer: WC Field's tombstone.
Cavan Man
(08/16/00; 18:03:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 35053)
Boxman
Thanks. Understand. I sell tons of it. Regards....CM
Boxman
(08/16/00; 17:49:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 35052)
Cavn Man's post #35048
Cavan Man, SBS is solid bleach sulphate, what I refer to as folding cartons, like KFC carry out boxes. SBS and linerboard (for corrugated boxes) do not always move in lockstep. I was startled to read of pulp prices being increased by 8%,I only hope that our industry will be spared, as I am still worn out by the last 3 increases.
There are a lot of items packaged with SBS, and this is just more fuel to the inflation fire. My guess is that high energy costs are coming into play.
TownCrier
(08/16/00; 17:18:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 35051)
Actually, Sir Cavan Man...
Though you took my comment of "down a third" over last year as being 33%, the WGC has the value pegged more exactly at a 41% drop from this time last year. That would be a what you and I would consider to be a rather largish "third"...and certainly more thought provoking than a smaller "third".
CoBra(too)
(08/16/00; 17:18:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 35050)
PD - XAU
Nobody understands the inclusion of Phelps Dodge, a major copper producer (gold <1% of revenue) to the XAU (gold and siver index - until now). This is not only the topic of - as I see it ...of our sister forum ... but the big Q? of PD itself - and I would believe they're trying to figure out this move by the authorities by themselves - As we'll be enlightened by the regulatory body in a news release by the 18th. of August, as to their spokesperson - I would beg to ask only one question - IS The PHILA SE exempted from full public DISCLOSURE, as any LISTED company would be getting hell from the SEC and FTCT - at just introducing new participants - even without their consent!?! to their own scheming goals - PHLX - EXIT! - Youv'e neglected your credibility - and reneged on your role as a fair exchange- and whatever you'll have to say on the 18th. in a press release - I doubt it would make sense!
All of us alraedy know about the problems of mkt. capitalization - so why bother with another mining stock - be fair and include a dot com and rename your f* index (no pun to a friend)X -(like in minus) AU?
And as a sideline kick off "GOLD" (-fields cum Franco Nevada) and replace it with Meridian, a semi obscure (sorry Meridians) Canadian Producer of some 170.000 oz's.
The gist of the sorry story - Philadelphia should stay the nice town it always was - sporting some semblance of their old "private banks" - and hosting republican party parties - though please, dear town leave the dirty derivative games to whomever they belong.
Your still friendly - though damm'ned concerned cb2
Cavan Man
(08/16/00; 17:00:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 35049)
Boxman
SBS increase coming in september. SBS is leader for other board grades correct?
Cavan Man
(08/16/00; 16:58:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 35048)
TownCrier
You frame it up quite nicely. I like the fact that you leave the analysis and interpretation up to the reader.
God Bless America (land that I love-dearly)
PS: I think US equity markets are out of gas.
Boxman
(08/16/00; 16:56:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 35047)
Opec bank
http://www.arabia.com/article/0,1690,Business|27040,00.html
Any bets on "Gold" backing this bank?
Is he powerful enough to have major sway over OPEC? If so, might want to buy some long johns.
Cavan Man
(08/16/00; 16:54:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 35046)
HBM
A wise gentleman who has been MIA here might disagree with your analysis. The person I am thinking of is very experienced and knowledgeable and probably has a lot of data to back him up. How would you respond and could you please explain the significance of the yield curve inversion?
Also, who'd want to live in humidityville anyway?
Cavan Man
(08/16/00; 16:51:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 35045)
TownCrier
Good question-thanks. It appears that the "exchanges" or markets employed to price, trade etc. are getting very, very thin. It appears that these same exchanges might not be viable in the medium and perhaps short term.
When gold was set free to rise/fall in the 70's, these same exchanges replacing the London gold pool were probably designed with another (no pun) agenda namely, to enable central bankers to continue to somewhat control the POG if need be. I do not believe the market for pricing gold is a free one. I don't see how anyone can believe that it is.
I asked the question I did to determine if July was typically a down month. You told me that July volume was down 25% from previous but more telling is the the fact that July 2000 was down 33% from same month last year.
I'll add one more comment if I may--I do believe that when gold became legal for US citizens to own in '74 (?), someone in central banking and or government was acutely aware of monetary reality (at that time) and saw the benefit of legality at that time and through the passing years of citizen ownership for the purposes of subsequent confiscation if need be. I think confiscation in this country at some future time cannot be discounted by the prudent. Sorry for the rambling it has been a very long day.
TownCrier
(08/16/00; 16:07:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 35044)
Sir Cavan Man
What is your assesment of the LBMA stats now that you've had a chance to consider the follow-up information provided yesterday and today with regard to your question?
Do you see a scenario materially different than the one I've espoused?
CoBra(too)
(08/16/00; 16:03:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 35043)
Sir HBM - here's a new guy - RS -
Who said it all - thanks for sharing - BTW - RS, wellcome - not much to add - thanks cb2
Cavan Man
(08/16/00; 15:45:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 35042)
Hill Billy
BTW, my progenitors were "hillbillies" from Ireland--really.
If the acreage is $2K per, are you suggesting $300 silver and $20K gold? Also, a combination of good, farmable land with water and timber is preferable to all those trees no?
Cavan Man
(08/16/00; 15:28:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 35041)
Hill Billy Mitchell
That was one teriffic post. You have been saving it for a long time? I am more simple and less educated than most here. However, my sixth sense (which is pretty good) tells me there is something none too pleasant over the horizon. I am not a gloom and doomer and only began buying PMs because of the value proposition inherent. I too share your concern although I am unable to articulate as well as most. Kind regards...CM
CoBra(too)
(08/16/00; 14:45:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 35040)
I got carried away - Billy
Thanks for your honest and great response to prior post. As I've meant to say it before - I mean it - and don't get distracted by an old guy's rambling - friend - go gold -cb2
RS
(08/16/00; 14:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 35039)
HBM usagold.com msg#: 35036.....
HBM,
Thank you for sharing that!
CoBra(too)
(08/16/00; 14:30:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 35038)
HBM and Steve H. - I fully concur -
The vague feeling, not a conception yet of uneasiness, or quaesiness is dawning somewhere in the still subconcious mind, that the tides may be changing, oh not to worry, at some future far out time. So let us enjoy the present, as our "elder statesmen" make us believe and let's not get distracted from this best of all worlds, since it is our due.
After all, didn't we rescue the rest of the world for the better part of the last century, at least twice. And didn't we lead the economic upturn afer the severe recession of the seventies to the benefit of all? and didn't our efforts in defense spending lead to the capitulation of communism - and again we're now consuming the goods of worlds labor for our real $'s - So who is left challenging our right to do so?, while helping our indistrualized friends, including the lesser so, to export their labor easily (=cheaply).
On credit? You don't say! What would you expect, to sell wholesale all of our productive facilities for next to nothing? No, way - we've paid our printing press overtime to overcome "your" problems and since you seem to like it and refinance our misallocated funds - though the FED still feels it's appropiate to boost our productivity (is it in misallocation of capital - sorry, I wasn't sure about A.G's meaning, yet?) -, well nobody said you should! So, why in hell are you blaming us, as you accepted our $'s, by investing them in our booming dot-coms and such as the last save haven?
OK, to tell you the truth, we've done the same. We've believed in you guys to not being wrong all of the time, or have you long ago started a master plan to deprive us of our $-reserve seignorage printing privileges. I doubt it. You, my friends, couldn't have been that devious. Even with the eventual introduction of an euro and potentially with a new Aesan comon currency - you only wanted to stabilize the $ vs your own funny money, or not?
Tell you what, lay off - let's get this sorted out in a nice gentlemanly,urbanized way of a globalized world of WTO, NWO and other, from here on lectronic units - not only of account - though total account - and forget the squabbles. Take the $ for what it stands and don't worry, you'll get its full worth -back- eventually - NIL!
Cynical typing of more cynical types - just victimized the key board - Go gold - cb2
SteveH
(08/16/00; 13:41:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 35037)
HBM
Great post Billy.
A realtor friend in my neck of the woods told me the other day that the real estate market was changing. He said that people couldn't afford to service the debt for some of the higher priced homes anymore. He said they were all carrying too much credit card debt. A home in my neighborhood just sold for $19K under what they asked and that was under $10K what I paid for mine two years ago.
Yep, the cpi and the talking heads of financial news seem to be hiding the truth about inflation, for it sure does eat away at the expendable income.
Thanks for the post.
Hill Billy Mitchell
(08/16/00; 13:15:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 35036)
Pete @ # 35009
I am a simple person. Please pay me no mind.
HBM
Hill Billy Mitchell
(08/16/00; 13:07:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 35035)
Creeping recession
@ CoBra(too) # 35023
"What we are all feeling in our pocket books... the accumulation of ... paper wealth
Please allow me to take excerpts from your post to use as a launching pad for my own thoughts.
I generally like to keep a low profile as to my personal life including my means of making a living. Let me give a vague picture of my main occupation just to give some credibility to what I have to offer.
In my business I provide planning advice to my clients. I have approximately 50 clients with whom I have contact at least once per month. I have an additional 100 clients with which I have contact at least twice per year. My clients are quite diverse demographically, financially, and politically. I reveal this to indicate the source of my information.
In general those who own stocks directly are not feeling too good about their total financial situation at the moment.
Those who own stocks indirectly, ie. mutual funds are feeling a bit queasy; however they do have eternal hope in the long run. They have been told that since 1928 not a single mutual fund has failed. Buy and hold forever. They have bought into this and will be there when, and if, and no matter what.
A few, very few sold, in 1999, the mutual funds which they had been accumulating since the early 70's. This was accomplished without tax problems because taxes were paid on the dividend reinvestments along the way.
A great majority have most of their wealth tied up in tax sheltered funds (Social Security, Keoghs, IRA's, (401)K's, Government Pension Funds). They have no plans of touching a dime of the investments because they are prohibited by law, due to either age restrictions or the tax consequences of liquidation.
I have one client, (have permission to disclose) who has a net worth approximately $8.21 million give or take $1 million (absolutely zero debt). Journeyman, you would enjoy knowing this man, a debt free trucking businessman, and a driver every day that he is not a mechanic. Maybe I will introduce you to him some day. This man started with no inheritance and was never in debt more than $50,000. He and his wife are 55 years old, 3 children, 12 grandchildren, and a Heinz 57. The allocation of assets (book value basis) of the $8.21 Million follows:
Cash - 6.09%
Trade Receivables - 3.65%
Plant and equipment - 18.27%
Real Estate - 48.72%
Physical Gold - 3.65%
Physical Silver - 0.12%
Common Stock - 1.22%
Sheltered paper investments - 18.27%
Politically promised funds - 0.01% (intentionally valued at near zero)
Another client is in the trucking business. He has a negative net worth.
The rest of my clients fit somewhere in between however many of them have a greater percentage of their net worth allocated in physical metals.
All (no exceptions) have one particular thing in common. They are all complaining about the increasing difficulty of adding to their net worth in the last two years. This state of affairs which has accelerated in the last few months also applies to my situation.
The most common complaint is that prices of almost all goods and services are rising at a faster rate than the rise in after tax incomes. They especially complain about the cost of fuel and food, the two noteworthy items, which are omitted from the core inflation rate. Some were placing a portion of their wealth in physical metals up until the retail fuel price shocks arrived. Now, when the physical is at such a bargain, they no longer have enough cash to buy a little physical at the end of each month. I'll bet that CPM can verify this to be the case as some of my clients are also CPM'S customers.
Now those who have been living on debt and having much of their income consumed by interest on that debt continue to borrow to pay the interest for one more month and to buy a little food or a car or a PC. Those who have sheltered mutual funds continue to invest via payroll withholding due the fact that after taxes their net cash flow would not improve one bit, not to mention that their employers would frown upon such an unstable employee who does not want to save for future retirement. They complain about the cost of fuel and food but continue to borrow for they feel that they have no choice.
Real consumption (purchased with current production) is beginning to decrease, technological productivity increases to the contrary, even though we are told that nominal consumption is holding. If the books weren't cooked and increases in consumer debt were correlated with increases in consumption I submit that we would find that real consumption purchased with real production is decreasing at this time. That, my friends leads to recession. I can say with a considerable degree of certainty that the current downturn into which we are entering has been and will continue to be hidden from the public for political reasons.
This downturn which is being orchestrated by the Fed and hidden by the press and the politicians will be slow and long and the climb out of the carnage will be slow and long. At best we are looking at a repeat of (1974 -1984), at worst we are looking at a repeat of (1928-1938).
I would like to point out that, that which is hidden by the press and the politicians, can be seen in the treasury yield curve.
There was a point of time during both of the above-mentioned periods when a little physical gold could have been exchanged for a lot of real estate. There will be a point of time when, in the state of Missouri, 5 acres of land with standing timber can be purchased for 30 pieces of silver and an ounce of gold will buy 10 acres of the same land. Imagine owning a thousand acres of standing timber because you are the only person around with some real money with which to buy it.
Even though the price is right for physical accumulation it will become harder and harder to accumulate because of the economic environment into which we are entering. Not much time for accumulation is left.
Get you some powder and keep it dry.
HBM
OZ
(08/16/00; 12:33:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 35034)
Barrick Gold rides again
TO ALL INTERESTED:
I have been a shareholder of MDN (Northern Mining Explorations on TSE) for over five years now and have been following this company along with PGD (Pangea Goldfields) very closely since their entry into Tanzania. Tanzania is one of the most, if not the most hot spot for gold exploration and discoveries in the world today.
As most MDN and PGD shareholders have no doubt done, I have carried out extensive analysis as to what the value of MDN should be on a takeover and the present situation that MDN is in since PGD was taken out by ABX (Barrick Gold). I have come to the conclusion that ABX could be accused of a form of ostracism since they are deliberately showing a total lack of fairplay and respect towards MDN. ABX are knowmn worldwide for their tactics towards the smaller producers and exploration firms.
When PGD was taken out a while back, MDN shareholders could have concluded that ABX wanted to take PGD first and then MDN. But now many weeks have gone by and MDN is being kept in the dark. No contacts have been made with MDN, MDN does not know exactly what to expect and ABX are trying to isolate MDN and undermine the confidence of its shareholders thus causing a selloff and lowering the share price.
No doubt ABX are noticing the very good performance of MDN shares on the market since the last week of July. Since a precedent has been created by ABX for paying PGD shareholders a 52% over market price, the same can be expected by MDN shareholders.
Therefore the message to Barrick Gold: The whole world is watching via the internet and the whole world is aware of your usual lack of fairplay towards takeover candidates. YOU WILL NOT SUCCEED THIS TIME.
SIGNED: A shareholder disgusted with ABX.
schippi
(08/16/00; 12:15:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 35033)
Select Gold Hourly Chart
http://www.SelectSectors.com/agpm70.gif
A nice steady build to the Upside!
TownCrier
(08/16/00; 11:54:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 35032)
Sir Beesting and gold prices after a collapse
Peering into the future is always fraught with pitfalls, and not surprisingly so because very few people have a solid grasp even on the present. Having pointed out the thin ice we are on, let me continue forward by suggesting that The Fix is valid at current price levels only because we have the semblance of an orderly market with COMEX setting the psychological tone that only a steady or falling price can provide.
Getting to your question about a worldwide pricing mechanism, "How is the world going to know the actual physical price of Gold in the case of a paper Gold default?"
At all points, is such a thing truly needed or useful? Looking at the mighty worldwide U.S. dollar as the best current parallel, we might be inclined to suggest that there is a worldwide pricing mechanism for the dollar because it has served as the highly visible universal currency in international affairs. Yet, how can we explain that a single dollar is priced at a few minutes of manual labor in the United States, whereas it is priced at a half-day of manual labor in India?
Location (availability) may become a very important factor. Gold in your hand may be valued/priced much higher than gold that is loco London, no matter where on Earth you find yourself. It is largely the false notion that gold can be delivered anywhere and everywhere that it is called for that leads to the perception of a one-world price. But as set out in our previous example, the dollar is "worth" more in India than it is in the United States...despite its "fungibility", huge "overhang", and ease of transport at the touch of a few computer keys.
During crunch time, gold will not have these convenient qualities to act as a smoothing effect for a world price. It would in actuality be the quality of the specific currency offered for purchasing the gold that would possibly facilitate such a thing as a meaningful "world" price...priced in THAT currency, that is.
In the coming event of the next (and final?) routine collapse of the latest gold banking system, in the absence of the orderly fiction that we all now enjoy, local prices will largely come about as a result of such things as private deals, e-bay offerings to buy and sell, and independent gold brokers such as Centennial facilitating a two-way market for local participants looking to buy some or sell some as needed. In such a time, it would shake out more like the real-estate market than the stock market in the regard that the location and a availability of the "property" would matter most.
Just the thoughts from The Tower. Hope this was helpful.
CoBra(too)
(08/16/00; 11:34:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 35031)
Should have added -
Gold - get you some - Thank you, Sir Aristotle - $'s -sell some for your physical (and not only health) - though overall, including wealth or well being - cheers -cb2
CoBra(too)
(08/16/00; 11:30:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 35030)
@wolavka - your words in god's ears -
BTW-your German seems to have improved pronto! best -cb2
PS- just by chance listening to the history of mining in the Tauern (window), Austrian Alps- one of the oldest gold -copper producing mines in the world. Hold these concessions for several years - drilled 350m (diamond core) for multiple horizons, which was not assumed before and proved 6, potentially more layers- up to 13 g/t (Bondar, Clegg -Vancouver-which is disclosed - half cores retained inn my garaage - heavy stuff - until some time the country decides to centralize proof of mining endeavours again ), otherwise co. is rebuilding - so n.n. - sorry - go carried away! -cb2
PPS: Some never give up, nor surrender!
beesting
(08/16/00; 10:24:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 35029)
What may be considered a Dumb question for Sir TownCrier & USAGOLD and ALL!
Since the 1970's when the price of Gold was allowed to "Float", the accepted pricing mechanism for Gold worldwide has been,"The Spot" price of Gold set daily by LBMA and with the help of computers, re-adjusted by the minute with the ebb and flow of the "Paper" Gold market.(COMEX etc.)
Serious question:
Since the world has already seen default in Palladium paper markets, do Gold coin dealers,refineries, and other buyers and sellers of Gold in volume, have an alternate worldwide pricing mechanism worked out yet, in the event LBMA,COMEX, and the other paper Gold markets default?
How is the world going to know the actual physical price of Gold in the case of a paper Gold default???
Thanks In Advance.....beesting.
Al Fulchino
(08/16/00; 10:19:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 35028)
Topaz (8/16/2000; 6:22:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 35015
My son, when he was 13, won the AAU gold medal for baseball along with all his team members. There wasn't an ounce of gold amongst all the medals combined. I suppose your medals are lucky to have what they have. <smile>
TownCrier
(08/16/00; 10:19:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 35027)
An update to our archive of the WGC's weekly commentary
http://www.usagold.com/wgc.html
From this week's report, here are excerpts of some themes we have been talking about lately here in The Tower.
Regarding the COMEX price-discovery issue and institutions with determined shorting motivations...(a continuing gift to the acquisition-minded gold buyer)
"As expected, the latest statistics published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission reported a turnaround in the net position of the large speculators on Comex, which switched from a net long 3,543 contracts (equivalent to 11.0 tonnes) to a net short 25,023 contracts (77.8 tonnes) over the two weeks ended August 8. Open interest had fallen to around 110,000 contracts as long positions were unwound, but rebounded during the period to 122,540 contracts as new short positions were built up. Since then open interest has recovered further to 128,101 contracts, suggesting that additional short selling has taken place."
Regarding the account holders within the LBMA system and their apparent growing reluctance to keep their gold in play within this over-extended banking arena...
"The exceptionally low levels of gold market activity in recent weeks, which can be attributed more to declining participation in the market than to seasonal factors, were reflected in the net volume of gold cleared through the London market during July. According to London Bullion Market Association statistics, the average volume of gold transferred fell to a new historic low of 638 tonnes per day, 27% lower than in the previous month and 41% down on the same period of last year."
Regarding China's steps toward a deregulated and open physical gold market...
"The South African investment bank Investec Group, which signed an agreement in June to supply the Peoples' Bank of China with a minimum 15 tonnes of gold a year for an unlimited period, announced that the first two tonnes of gold have been shipped from Johannesburg to Shenzen. The gold was supplied by the Rand Refinery."
wolavka
(08/16/00; 09:17:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 35026)
g s listen up
smart money into commodities now
Buena Fe
(08/16/00; 09:06:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 35025)
GOLD'S BRAVE COUSIN
The API also downwardly revised stocks as of the week ended Aug. 4 to 279 million barrels from 282.6 million. The record low for API-estimated crude stocks seen in the last 24 years is about 282 million barrels.
Due to downward revision of the previous week's data, "the net addition to inventory reported by the API is 3.8 million," Brady said -- much smaller than the gross 7.4 million barrels reported.
SO THE INVENTORIES OF LAST WEEK WERE SO BAD THAT THEY COULDN'T STOMACH THE THOUGHT OF REVEALING SOMETHING WORSE THAN 1976 "279MILL"!!!!!!!!!!!! WOW......REVISIONS REVISIONS.....$50+ HERE WE COME.
wolavka
(08/16/00; 08:55:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 35024)
I'm ready
Let's go up in gold now.
CoBra(too)
(08/16/00; 08:43:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 35023)
Any further comments on the CPI seem moot.
What we're all feeling in our bocketbooks is a very real and not too slow erosion of wealth. Take some away as long noone's looking, or in this case looking the other way, the
accumulation of phoney paper "wealth", the now # uno national pasttime.
Well, as long as POG stays below 300$/oz, and probably even below 400 not many new reserve ounces will be added to the from here on rapidly dwindling mineable reserves. The hedgers may have a real bad time in future to replenish their "high graded" production from old reserve counts. There'll be blood in the hedge books, alas little gold to deliver.
Time to sell more $'s for physical. Take it as a gift as long as the "store" i gving it away - as a giveaway - cb2
as it's given away
USAGOLD
(08/16/00; 08:39:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 35022)
Today's Commentary: Strong Physical Demand, Suspect CPI Boost Gold
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html
DAILY COMMENTARY
(8/16/00) www.USAGOLD.com . . . Gold
cranked higher this morning with
reports of strong physical demand
supplying the chief stimulus along with
another suspect consumer price report
in which only a politician now holding
office would put any credence. The
optimistic spin accompanying this
morning's inflation report credits
softer energy pricing. The problem here
is that most in the markets are well
aware of the burgeoning supply problems
in the energy sector pipeline and don't
expect the good price news to last.
Hence, a weaker dollar, confused (about
to fumble?) equity markets and stronger
gold.
Physical buying was characterized
as "strong" in the early AM Dow Jones
report and the unremitting pressure for
the metal itself seems to be having an
effect. It stands as noteworthy that
physical purchases remain a factor in
current gold pricing despite summer's
doldrums and the fact that we have yet
to see the benefits of seasonal buying
from India. The very strong demand
numbers out of Asia reported by the
World Gold Council are also worth
taking into consideration. We continue
to believe that Asian demand, fueled by
currency meltdowns in that part of the
world three years ago, will strongly
underpin the gold market for years to
come.
Though still no follow-through on
Friday's stealth up tick at the end of
the New York session was detected in
yesterday's trading, something happened
in Asian and London markets overnight,
and we think that something is
short-covering. And that's not to say
that there isn't substantially more
short-covering lurking in the shadows
as suggested here all week. We would
add the potential for significantly
more short covering to dollar weakness
and physical demand as chief
inducements for higher prices in the
near to medium term. With the extant
short position doubling over the last
two weeks, Friday's CFTC Commitment of
Traders numbers indicate a strong
latent demand for gold that could touch
off a late summer, early fall rally.
This week's surprise performer
thus far has been oil now trading at
the highest level in nearly a decade.
Crude got an additional boost when
Venezuelan president and oil price hawk
Hugo Chavez declared current price
levels "fair" and that they should be
"maintained." He coupled the statement
with top level meetings in the Middle
East in advance of late September's oil
conclave in Caracas. Oil prices drive
inflation not only in the United States
but around the world, and at some
point, the denied becomes undeniable,
even in nations immersed in the
electoral process. Oil was steady in
the early going.
In what may echo as a faint warning
in the United States, Germany, a nation
with a traditionally low inflation
rate, yesterday reported its highest
inflation at the wholesale level in
over a decade -- .3% for the month of
July with wholesale prices rising 5.8%
over the past twelve months. The German
inflation situation tracks back to gold
via a stronger euro possibly induced by
EU interest rate increases, and a
possible break in the dollar which many
analysts feel essential to any further
upside in the gold price. Gold demand
on the European continent could very
well have been an unstated reason for
gold's strong showing in the London
session. The euro currencies are down
against the dollar early; the yen up.
That's it for today, fellow
goldmeisters. We'll see you here
tomorrow.
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wolavka
(8/16/2000; 8:22:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 35021)
head fake
games, watch swiss franc, dollar should fall.
gold dec, support 278-79
Black Blade
(8/16/2000; 7:42:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 35020)
Just Another Day in the Peoples Republik of Kalifornia
WHAT A ZOO!
Protesters in L.A. Oppose Oil Lobby
14 Aug 2000 16:07:18
- Hundreds of protesters marched to the site of the Democratic National Convention today, calling Al Gore and George W. Bush a pair of oily politicians.
Several hundred people, mostly in their 20s, chanted slogans against Occidental Petroleum and Gore''s investment in the company. They said Occidental is drilling on lands belonging to U''Wa Indians in Colombia. Though they focused their ire on Democratic presidential candidate Gore as the party''s convention begins, some protesters carried signs bashing Republican nominee Bush. Demonstrators say both politicians are controlled by big oil companies.
Gore''s father served on Occidental''s board, owned stock in the company and served as chief executive of a subsidiary before his death last December. His stock holdings passed to his family.
Singer Bonnie Raitt is giving a concert for the protesters in support of the U''Wa cause. With actors Martin Sheen, Susan Sarandon and Alicia Silverstone, she sent an open letter to Gore this morning, telling the self-proclaimed environmentalist candidate that "many of us have supported your candidacy because we were drawn to you by a shared sense of concern for the earth. What you do on this issue now will not only be of critical importance but a question of integrity."
Police are taking a laid-back attitude toward the protest. They''re dressed in regular uniform, not riot gear. Some of the protesters have actually stopped and had long conversations with police. And legal observers dressed in neon hats are on hand, documenting everything they see.
Occidental''s headquarters in Los Angeles has been virtually shut down today, said two Occidental employees who didn''t want to give their names. Few people were at work at the headquarters, and officials are "not available for comment on anything," according to an employee at the company''s Washington, D.C., office.
Several other rallies are planned for today, the biggest one leading up to a concert by anti-corporate hard-rock band Rage Against the Machine at 6 p.m. PT. (See related story.)
Echoes of Philadelphia
The aftermath of the Republican convention in Philadelphia was also on protesters'' minds. Hundreds of people were arrested at the convention, some during a melee between protesters and police, others during what protesters said was a crackdown on peaceful protest organizers. Many were kept in jail for days and claim they were mistreated by police.
John Sellers, director of the Ruckus Society, was arrested while walking down the street talking on his cell phone, protesters in Philadelphia said. He was kept in jail for six days and only got out after police marked down his $1 million bail for seven misdemeanor charges to $100,000.
"Having just spent six days in the Philadelphia prison system with [protesters], I can assure you that they are nonviolent people of conscience," he said.
So far there''s only been one arrest in Los Angeles. A 20-year-old Utah man, Sean Diener, dumped tons of horse manure outside the DNC hotel headquarters on Saturday, police said. Diener was dressed in a pig suit when he made the drop, and said he was trying to bring attention to the plight of animals killed for food. The group People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals paid his bail of $1,500. Diener spent seven hours in custody, said he was treated well by the police, and got out in time to attend another rally on Sunday.
Peaceful, So Far
In the biggest event so far, some 4,000 demonstrators took to the streets Sunday to protest the scheduled execution of Mumia Abu-Jamal, who was sentenced to death in 1982 for the murder of a Philadelphia police officer.
The protest march culminated in a late-afternoon rally across from the Staples Center convention site, where the four-day nominating convention was set to get underway today.
Demonstrators chanted "Free Mumia!" and waved signs that read "Stop the Execution!" and "End the Racist Death Penalty!" as hundreds of Los Angeles police officers looked on.
"We''re out here because an innocent man and innocent people are dying," said Ali Hassn, 22, of Pomona, Calif. "And we will take it to any means that need to happen in order to see these people free - and that might mean violence."
But at the first major protest of the week, Hassn and others remained true to protest leaders'' promises of staging only non-violent demonstrations - much to the delight of the Los Angeles Police Department.
"They have a cause they want to get out to the public and I don''t have a problem with that ... as long as they do it peacefully," said Sgt. Chris Casey. "[If] this is the way the Democratic convention goes for the next week, we''ll be happy."
ABCNEWS.com''s Carter Yang and ABC Radio''s Steffan Tubbs contributed to this report.
Topaz
(8/16/2000; 6:42:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 35019)
Math
aand...for those who think my Math needs some improvement, I have these three words.....Warehouse Supervisor.. and ...SHAVING ;-)
Truth be told...It's a Math deficiency!
wolavka
(8/16/2000; 6:38:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 35018)
gotta go get some shorts, buys stops
next stop 284
wolavka
(8/16/2000; 6:24:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 35017)
watch
282 in dec if we break it, we run .
Black Blade
(8/16/2000; 6:23:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 35016)
"Morning Wakeup Call" Awaiting the Bogus CPI Numbers (3 Card Monty!)
Source: BridgeNews
THE EASTERN FRONT:
Asia Precious Metals Review: Australia's buying supports gold
By Mari Iwata and Polly Yam, BridgeNews
Tokyo--Aug. 16--Spot gold was supported by Australian buying in Asia on Wednesday, following the strength of the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar, dealers said. Trading of gold remained thin due to the current holiday season, they added. Spot palladium extended the overnight gains to Asia with enlarged spreads resulting from the increased volatility over the past few days.
Black Blade: The Pd paper market is effectively dead for individual traders now. The big-boys will stumble about as they try to put the screws to each other and milk each other over the few existing contracts. Time to slide into Pt physical and PGM mining shares. See last nights PGM posts courtesy of theminingweb. Gold and Silver look especially attractive now as analysts are seething with venom whenever the PM metals are mentioned, as usual an excellent indicator. In other words, "Buy low, ... .."
THE AFRICAN FRONT:
For those interested in reading the latest spin on Ashanti's hedging program, it can be found at:
http://www.ashantigold.com/hedging.htm
Considering the stellar results from the last fiasco, this is almost entertaining, yet it is also pathetic. Meanwhile, Ghana is pursuing criminal probes into the activities involving Ashanti's hedging program that nearly led to the company going belly-up.
Meanwhile, S&P Futures are up +0.02, while Fair Value is up +7.07, this could be a positive, however, the bogus CPI numbers come out in a few minutes, and anything could happen in the interim. Oil is down -$0.09 at $31.58/bbl. Au is up +0.70 at $275.10, Ag unchanged at $4.83, Pt up +$572.00, and Pd down
-$15.00 at $755.00. Buying physical and profitable unhedged mining shares look especially attractive now. Hedged miners like ABX and ASL could severely disappoint in a PM bull run!
TOPAZ, msg. 35011: I love baby Harp Seals, They taste just like chicken!
Topaz
(8/16/2000; 6:22:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 35015)
The FINAL indignity!
Well, I'm flabbergasted!!
After resisting family pressure to participate in the Olympics for several Months I finally relented and volunteered to assist with the medal ceremonies.
This evening (here) I made some enquiries re the Medals and lo and behold, the GOLD Medal, weighing 210 grams has a WHOPPING 6g Au content.
Of all the cheapscate, conniving, underhanded, scabby, guttersnipe acts perpetrated by the IOC/Socog, this takes the Cake.
Juan Antonio Samaranch should be shackled hand and foot and dragged down to the deed poll place and made to change his name to Juan thirty-forth and a bit Antonio.
And the Olympic fractional reserve Gold Medal goes to.....
Oh.. thats right... the Bronze Medal is the most valuable anyway- what was I thinking!!!
Black Blade
(8/16/2000; 6:07:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 35014)
Oil Crisis is Just Over the Horizon!
When the Saudis decided to ramp up oil production by 500,000 bbl/day the predictable result was a sharp sell-off on Wall Street. Consider that Saudi Arabia is the only producer in the world with spare capacity, and then you see the problem of a looming oil crisis just over the horizon. In 1956 M. King Hubbert, oil industry specialist, predicted that the maximum production peak (Hubbert Peak) for the USA would come in 1970, and the world peak would come at the end of the 20th century. His 1970 prediction was accurate, and now it appears that his end-of-the-century prediction is likely to be accurate as well. Several OPEC and companies have overstated their reserves in order to obtain greater concessions with regards to OPEC production quotas and to increase stock prices, and sometimes to obtain more collateral for their loans. These were contrived "political reserves" . The facts are that with the geologic understanding of petroleum fields, plate tectonics, and the limitations of geological environments, there are likely to be no more Super Giant Oil Fields discovered. The most promising locales have been thoroughly explored.
Many economists think that by increasing tax credits or other subsidies, this problem can be solved. Some people can be truly dangerous when armed with very little information or understanding of earth science. Hubbert used to say "economist can find twice as much oil on paper as geologists can find in the ground!" Many do not understand the difference between "resources" (petroleum know to exist) and "reserves" (petroleum that can be economically extracted). World demand is in excess of 26 billion barrels/year and rising, all the while exploration efforts are only replacing this oil at less than 6 billion barrels/year! A recipe for global disaster and recession!
The Saudis efforts to raise production are like the little Dutch boy plugging a leak in the dike with his finger. It ain't gonna change a thing! Leaks are springing out all over the dike. There is runaway global demand for oil, and the emerging markets are demanding their share! This runaway global demand can only be quelled by a catastrophic recession. The world is about to close up shop and go out of business. The world runs on oil and there isn't enough. The Saudis know well the predictament that awaits the worlds economies. They have a saying "My father rode a camel, I drive a car, my son rides in a jet airplane, - his son will ride a camel"
This is only a part of the equation. An example of things to come can be seen from our recent past. Venezuela uses its oil revenues to support its social programs. In 1989, oil revenues faltered and the government had to change its free-spending ways. The government subsidized bus fares and gasoline prices were raised, and subsequently riots erupted in Caracas and 17 other cities. More than 300 were killed, more than 2000 injured, and several thousand arrested. In the US in could get just as bad. Consider North American culture with commuter-rage murders, and riots over sports championship events. Life is sure to get very interesting over the next several months. No one seems to have wakened to the fact yet as these sheepishly go about their daily lives, obliviously of the brave new world about to be set upon them.
The Mid-East countries have all the aces. Though Saudi Arabia may alleviate some price pressure in the short term, their neighbors are increasingly pressuring them for a greater say in OPEC policies. Most of Saudis neighbor view them with suspicion and they "consort with the western infidels". Most of the Middle eastern countries dislike the House of Saud and consider them bad examples of true Islam. The tide could easily change and Saudi influence fade as the weakening Saud family loses its grip on power.
Sweet Dreams, Black Blade
Topaz
(8/16/2000; 5:47:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 35013)
@all- to aid and abet Wolavka
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_00/droke081600.html
Thank me later "W" or better still, buy me a Beer!
wolavka
(8/16/2000; 4:10:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 35012)
read droke on k wave
good stuff. If weather turns sour toward harvest, grains must be dried, excess stockpiled will rot.
Guess who owns most of storage facilities?
Most are yellow, (gold)
Topaz
(8/16/2000; 3:24:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 35011)
Journeyman
Well hello Journeyman:
We do take our political topics seriously, don't we, hummm??- Yes, you are right in extolling the voting/non-voting virtues inherent in your system but, if I may,can I draw a similarity to your argument in a different context?
Let's assume you are a shareholder of a Corporation who is engaged in some nefarious activity which galls you in the extreme, say Harp Seal bludgeoning.
One faction is for just going out there and bashing the critters with a Baseball Bat-- another says "thats too cruel, we'll stun em first -then bludgeon em"- and yet a third (small) group tries to extoll the virtues of Harp Seal Genocide- then to rear them in captivity, in ideallic surroundings and in the process, corner the Market!
None of the above options appeal to you so you sell your shares-
However- when next you are at the Mall you discover the very generous shareholder discount on all the company products- (the corp is a subsidiary of a LARGE conglomerate) is no longer yours for the asking- you jump up and down, rant and rave, threaten blue murder etc, but in reality- you're simply "not entitled" anymore.
Isn't this similar to non-voting?
Isn't the righteous shareholder who sold his interest (didn't vote)and is now seen demanding his discount, similar to an American protesting ALL the inequities of the system while still enjoying ALL the benefits of life in your fair U-nited States?
Journeyman, I too, when a lot younger and less cynical took a similar position (albeit illegal here) to yours but as years passed and the "flame" flickered it became far too inconvenient on a personal level to NOT vote.
Our compulsory voting system is indeed inferiour to yours in that it breeds complacency in the electorate and has given rise to classic Third Way politics with no clear path as an alternative.
Treat your choice to vote with reverence- how you choose is entirely up to you.
Now- to the answer you seek re: Quiz:-
Slap bang in the middle of the Centre/Conservative space bar...... bit disappointed really.... Maggie Thatcher ROOLS!!
Incidentally, I NEVER miss your post's... keep em comin;-)
Strad Master
(8/16/2000; 1:52:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 35010)
Fascinating update on Oil
http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/subscribe.asp
Here's a fascinating little tidbit from today's Stratfor Global Intelligence Update. Perhaps FOA and Another's predictions of $50 oil are coming true - sooner, rather than later. If the price of Crude ignites inflation and people in the North start getting cold due to lack of Heating Oil, the inflated markets are likely to tank. Aside from the bullish prospects that holds for the POG, the Democrat's presidential hopes will wind up resembling comet Shoemaker-Levy when it hit Jupiter:
Crude oil prices rose to more than $32 per barrel on Aug. 15. The price spike was widely attributed to a comment made by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez that oil producers should not allow prices to drop below their current levels. Chavez is currently touring nations that make up the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in preparation for a September heads of state summit in Caracas. However, the price spike actually reflects current market conditions. High energy prices, which will affect every sector of the global economy, are likely to continue throughout the winter
The only dependable method of attaining relief from high oil prices would be to increase production. Saudi Arabia announced in early July that it would unilaterally increase production by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd). However, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Saudi production has only increased by 150,000 bpd. Since global demand tends to slacken in the autumn, OPEC will be reluctant to boost production. As well, individual members of OPEC have recently opposed increases; when Saudi Arabia announced its decision to boost production in July, it faced a solid wall of opposition.
Consequently, the global economy faces a dual threat from flat supplies and diminished stocks. U.S. crude stocks are at a 24-year low. More importantly, low gasoline stocks in the United States and Europe are pushing refineries to favor gasoline production at the expense of heating oil.
Last winter, heating oil stocks were already at a 10-year low. This winter, American and European deficits will be 50 percent and 20 percent worse, respectively, according to the International Energy Agency. Reflecting this crucial shortage, the price of U.S. heating oil hit a six-month high this week - and this near the end of the summer, when demand is generally at its lowest.
While I have your attention, don't forget to mark Sunday, September 3 on your calendar to listen in at 6 PM (Pacific Time) to a live radio broadcast performed by yours truly, which can be heard throughtout the world via the internet:
http://www.KKGOFM.com/playlist&kmozart%20live.htm
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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