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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 6/16/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Leland (06/16/00; 23:17:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 32503)
@Marius
Whaaa? Ask DOD a qwestn'? Not since Gary Powers and the
U-2 epispode...

Chris Powell (06/16/00; 23:08:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 32502)
Gold conference in Paris
Yes, Reg Howe of www.goldensextant.com
will be in Paris in a little more than
a week, part of a GATA delegation to
the annual Financial Times gold
conference. Also attending will be
GATA Chairman Bill Murphy. (I've been
assigned to stay behind to tend the
computer servers and keep up with the
mail in Bumpkin, Connecticut.)And yes,
Trial Guide did seem to suggest that
he was going to the FT conference too.
I wonder if he'll identify himself to
the GATA guys. But of course even if
he does, I'm sure they'll be sworn to
secrecy. Let's hope that they meet
and help the cause.

Marius (06/16/00; 22:47:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 32501)
Al Fulchino, Leigh, & Leland
Al,

I'm sure you're a wonderful host, and I love NH (my mother-
in-law & brother-in-law live there), but gold for hot dogs?!
Get real. That mystery meat will kill ya.

Leigh,

How dare you speak so of the inventor of the InterNet?

Leland,

The revolution was postponed because Gates' operating system performed an illegal operation and had to be shut down! Gawd, am I glad I went bankrupt BEFORE trying to support a Windows-based system! Ask the Dept. of Defense if they use a MicroSoft product.

M



PH in LA (06/16/00; 22:18:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 32500)
"Happy Trails to You" for our friends FOA & Reg Howe!!
It appears that Reg Howe and Trail Guide will both be in Paris beginning next week. Has anyone heard anything about FOA's reference to "some big gold talks about to happen somewhere in the world...close to Paris (smile)". Will Reg Howe be attending the same "big talks"? Will the trail be "RED HOT" as early as July 4?

These two guys have often seemed to be walking the same trail. More coincidence?

By Reg Howe:
June __, 2000. On Going to Paris

[In preparation] Time permitting, I hope to do a short commentary before leaving on June 22. Otherwise the next commentary will not appear until sometime after the July 4 weekend.


Trail Guide (06/13/00; 15:14:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 32285)
Reply... Well, I'll be going for a while. It'll be a week or so before I leave. I hear there are some big gold talks about to happen somewhere in the world. I hope it's close to Paris (smile). I'll be traveling sometime. If my electronic connections survive, I hope to tune in from time to time. By the time I return, the Gold Trail should be "RED HOT" from use. We shall see.
thanks
Trail Guide

Al Fulchino (06/16/00; 20:42:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 32499)
New Englanders/Quixotic1/and all Forum folks
Late July/Early August......Cookout.....my place... I will post this several more times over the next month. Based on response, a date will be set or not set <hahaha>. Just an easy going affair is what can be expected....food, swimming etc. It is always good for like minded folk to gather and share stories and times. If any who read this agree, then let me know.

ORO (06/16/00; 20:30:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 32498)
Aristotle - "omnipotent government"
http://www.mises.org/humanaction.asp
Below is a list of chapters from Human Action, in which Von Mises tackles some of the issues I reffer to - though he is somewhat more lenient and matter of fact about banking activity.

The main point in my view is Washington's and Jefferson's: Government is raw power.
It is the organization that has succeeded in obtaining (it does not matter how) the overwhelming power of violence in a given geographical area.

Its internal rules of operation and how it interfaces with individuals and other organizations are delineated by the constitution or a given set of fundumental law or statute. Our constitution limited government to the sole functions of defense, enforcement and arbitration of private property and contract, and provision of fair measures.

From the administration of the first president after the constitution till before Jackson and all that followed him have felt restricted in the confines of the constitution because the main privelege of political power - its usefulness is in trading favor and charter for "a piece of the action" or for self agrandizement of the charismatic narcisist through playing Robin Hood for the masses: stealing from the middle to give to the poor, and providing monopoly and special priveleges and immunities to the rich.

A government with limited power of action by its own rules is just not what any who seek privelege will like, nor any who seek glory in power, or just plain power. Thus the constitution was hacked at, defacto government action ended well outside its confines, and in 1933-1937 FDR took it apart in one fell swoop.

Now the rules of use of government power are for sale to the highest bidder within practical limitations of popular experience of the effects and the tolerance of them. And voters in the "progressive" era of Democrats, have been playing this game in competition with the "money" or business interests.

Government is violence.
The only legitimate use of violence I know of is self defense.
Any use of government for another purpose results in government excercizing power for something that is not defense. This can only mean that government becomes one or all of the following:
Fraudulent
Thieving
Robbing
Restrictive
Arbitrary
Brutal

I do not believe in social contracts. Law and justice predate any form of government we know, and for long stretches of time weak governments (relative to the mass of people) have promised, and even delivered on occasion, this service of protection of person and property and guarantee of contract execution.

The common law courts have not allways been part of government. The people themselves would band together to execute the court's decisions, which were made by jury and instructed by a judge. Powerful governments (and the church) have allways taken over the practice of law and removed the folk from its practice and its execution. Then proceeded to replace principles of common law with arbitrary dictums that suited the politics if the moment.

As for execution: "good enough for government work" is the principle. Shoddy, aimless, and self serving is the common action of government. Often fired up by absurd pockets of ideological persecution - in Justice, EPA, National Security/CIA, FDA, Commerce, and many other departments.

Government tends to perpetuate and increase any problem that it aimed at to solve over long periods. It creates a bureaucracy with a vested interest in perpetuating the problems (and thus keeping the bureaucrat's jobs) with full government power at their disposal.

----------------------
Do I think things work as I described? Less so today than before Vietnam, but yes. Are the "powerful" THAT powerful. Not quite, but plenty powerful.


----------------------

PART SIX
THE HAMPERED MARKET ECONOMY

Chapter XXVII. The Government and the Market
The Idea of a Third System (p. 716)
http://www.mises.org/humanaction/chap27sec1.asp
The Intervention (p. 717) </humanaction/chap27sec2.asp>
The Delimitation of Governmental Functions (p. 719) </humanaction/chap27sec3.asp>
Righteousness as the Ultimate Standard of the Individual's Actions (p. 724) </humanaction/chap27sec4.asp>
The Meaning of Laissez Faire (p. 730) </humanaction/chap27sec5.asp>
Direct Government Interference with Consumption (p. 732) </humanaction/chap27sec6.asp>
Chapter XXVIII. Interference by Taxation
The Neutral Tax (p. 737) </humanaction/chap28sec1.asp>
The Total Tax (p. 738) </humanaction/chap28sec2.asp>
Fiscal and Nonfiscal Objectives of Taxation (p. 740) </humanaction/chap28sec3.asp>
The Three Classes of Tax Interventionism (p. 741) </humanaction/chap28sec4.asp>
Chapter XXIX. Restriction of Production
The Nature of Restriction (p. 743) </humanaction/chap29sec1.asp>
The Price of Restriction (p. 744) </humanaction/chap29sec2.asp>
Restriction as a Privilege (p. 748) </humanaction/chap29sec3.asp>
Restriction as an Economic System (p. 755) </humanaction/chap29sec4.asp>
Chapter XXX. Interference with the Structure of Prices
The Government and the Autonomy of the Market (p. 758) </humanaction/chap30sec1.asp>
The Market's Reaction to Government Interference (p. 762) </humanaction/chap30sec2.asp>
Minimum Wage Rates (p. 769) </humanaction/chap30sec3.asp>
CHAPTER XXXI. Currency and Credit Manipulation
The Government and the Currency (p. 780) </humanaction/chap31sec1.asp>
The Interventionist Aspect of Legal Tender Legislation (p. 783) </humanaction/chap31sec2.asp>
The Evolution of Modem Methods of Currency Manipulation (p. 786) </humanaction/chap31sec3.asp>
The Objectives of Currency Devaluation (p. 789) </humanaction/chap31sec4.asp>
Credit Expansion (p. 793) </humanaction/chap31sec5.asp>
Foreign Exchange Control and Bilateral Exchange Agreements (p. 800) </humanaction/chap31sec6.asp>
Chapter XXXII. Confiscation and Redistribution
The Philosophy of Confiscation (p. 804) </humanaction/chap32sec1.asp>
Land Reform (p. 805) </humanaction/chap32sec2.asp>
Confiscatory Taxation (p. 806) </humanaction/chap32sec3.asp>
Chapter XXXIII. Syndicalism and Corporativism
The Syndicalist Idea (p. 812) </humanaction/chap33sec1.asp>
The Fallacies of Syndicalism (p. 813) </humanaction/chap33sec2.asp>
Syndicalist Elements in Popular Policies (p. 815) </humanaction/chap33sec3.asp>
Guild Socialism and Corporativism (p. 816) </humanaction/chap33sec4.asp>
Chapter XXXIV. The Economics of War
Total War (p. 821) </humanaction/chap34sec1.asp>
War and the Market Economy (p. 825) </humanaction/chap34sec2.asp>
War and Autarky (p. 828) </humanaction/chap34sec3.asp>
The Futility of War (p. 831) </humanaction/chap34sec4.asp>
Chapter XXXV. The Welfare Principle Versus the Market Principle
The Case Against the Market Economy (p. 833) </humanaction/chap35sec1.asp>
Poverty (p. 835) </humanaction/chap35sec2.asp>
Inequality (p. 840) </humanaction/chap35sec3.asp>
Insecurity (p. 851) </humanaction/chap35sec4.asp>
Social Justice (p. 853) </humanaction/chap35sec5.asp>
Chapter XXXVI. The Crisis of Interventionism
The Harvest of Interventionism (p. 855) </humanaction/chap36sec1.asp>
The Exhaustion of the Reserve Fund (p. 855) </humanaction/chap36sec2.asp>
The End of Interventionism (p. 858) </humanaction/chap36sec3.asp>


Cavan Man (06/16/00; 20:22:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 32497)
To Sir Aristotle:
One Parting Thought
While filling my propane tank today for the coming pork steak season here in the balmy midwest, I happened upon a discussion with a gentleman and we talked of GOLD.

His view on the EURO: Owning one Euro is like owning a share of a mutual fund. Owning one $USD is like owning one share in just one company; tantamount to putting all your eggs in one basket. Interesting thought yes?

Fare thee well my friend and mentor Aristotle and fellows of the table round. The end of the final act approacheth.

I will see you on the other side.

Kind regards.......Cavan Man



Quixotic1 (06/16/00; 19:24:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 32496)
Al Fulchino...
Al Fulchino and others,
A BBQ sounds great. We can trade river panning stories over some Cuervo Gold with a twist. Just give me a little notice, as I travel frequently. I've noticed other participants from the area. Let's see if we coordinate schedules for an outing. I can be reached at nhquixotic@yahoo.com.

Gold for the good guys...Gary


Aristotle (06/16/00; 19:22:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 32495)
Thanks, ORO--defining the "lie" that bankers sold to the public
You explained--
"The public has been sold both the fiduciary gold and the fiat debt money as supposedly workable monetary systems. Governments and banks know this is not the case. That is why both items were introduced and the gold taken off the markets and held by government and the few of the powerful who understand what gold is and how it works vs. how fiduciary gold and its fiat debt money substitute work (or don't)."

Good news! It's great to hear what is, in your words, the identifying characteristic is of the few "powerful" among us--those being the ones that understand the nature of Gold and its fiduciaries, along with currency. As such, the world is happily populated with these powerful people, and one of them is our biggest ally. From my place right here on the door mat I can recall a strong and sure voice coming from the rooftop overhead--
--------------------------------------------------
TownCrier (05/24/00; 14:51:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 31173)
"...the dollar has been set up as a paper substitute for gold. But where that has failings which causes people to still seek the benefits of gold, yet another paper substitute was set up as a diversion: gold futures--the necessary partner of the dollar for an all paper world. Dollars could be used for currency needs, whereas gold futures would satisfy the unwary individuals' impulses to hedge their currency value for any potential collapse against gold. Unfortunately, these people do not realize that their strategy, while looking good on paper, remains in the long run to be one hamburger patty shy of a cheeseburger. Where's the beef?

"I'll tell you. While Americans have historically been notoriously experimental with banking and paper schemes to gain riches without effort, the rest of the world hasn't bought into this. Real gold remains in its role as real wealth and real money, and they are taking advantage of the U.S. disinterest, or should I say distraction, with the paper substitutes. (Hopefully you saw the post I provided recently on the World Gold Council's latest gold demand figures. On top of that you have the continuation of mind-numbing gold export numbers each month from the U.S.Dept. of Commerce.)

"If you come to gold with a mind to protect yourself against a failing of the dollar, how can you possibly hope to survive using a paper position that is in bed with that very same paper dollar system?

"Of course, if you are simply looking for a way to make easy profits with the premise of the continuation of a fully functioning strong dollar, then you would be wise to see early on precisely what true role is being served by the advent of these gold derivatives. You will find that your paper games are more fruitfully played (for paper profit) elsewhere in this wide economic world of options and opportunities.

"Paper contracts in any form (currency or futures) are the antithesis of gold, and to think that you (being any person in general) have locked in the ture benefits of solid gold ownership through an alternative use of a paper system (futures) is naive beyond my ability to comprehend.

"When real gold no longer comes to the table from the supply currently in weak hands, you will find that your gold futures contracts are no stronger than the dollar that denominates them. A tough lesson, to be sure, and yours to learn the hard way if you choose."
-----------------------------------------------------

So despite the successful disillusionment of the wealthy West on Gold, it would seem that there are billions of others (powerful?) who haven't bought into the same paper chase. And that comes as no surprise, yet it should also serve as a cause for you and a GREAT many gold-minded individuals to take a second look at your seemingly excessive convictions that banks and governments our essentially all powerful and "out to get us." ORO, from your post in question, you say--
"I am well aware that one can not go to a government and banking system and "sell it" the concept of unilateraly disarming in their war against the productive individuals that make those things available that governments and bankers want to control/take a piece of/steal. Of course, banks will not like to lose their monopoly on creating the exchange money. Government, the partner in the scheme, would not want to have banking lose its usefulness because of the desire to have unlimited credit - that is to have the option, when they feel like it, to tax away a large chunk of an economy's production by inflation." -----------

Gads, man. Do you REALLY think that way? How do you keep from being paralyzed into inaction from fear? Under that same operating premise, I sure know I would be. And on that last issue of inflation, I'm sure you will admit that your wording implies an evil intent, whereas the reality is simply and better conveyed like this: that the Government enjoys their option to raise funds through a form of "hidden taxation" which reveals itself as inflation. It is further undeniable that CITIZENS borrowing for cars and houses and charging credit cards ALSO create inflation. Are they evil masters of the universe too? Of course not.

The primary problem with the common view that "the powers that be" are trying to acquire all the Gold for themselves is that (IF!) once they've succeeded, I mean REALLY SUCCEEDED, what exactly have they accomplished? To succeed, every little person on earth (and Townie assures us we are a far distance from that) would have to view Gold with scorn--like cigarette butts on the sidewalk. Where is the advantage for a banker at that point? Who can command an empire from atop a giant mound of "cigarette butts"? Gold can only command respect and inspire action if the little people still hold it in high regard. Again, from my postion on the door mat, I neen only to look down at the voice coming amid spadefulls of dirt at the foundation to see some recognition of this, and who it will be that will inspire and benefit from the services of his fellow man--
-------------------------------------------------------
Aragorn III (6/12/2000; 2:38:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 32195)
"The fundamental "design flaws" of the international monetary system have been thoroughly obscured by the superficial design flaws. Use the wisdom widely found here to an advantage. As you see beneath the surface you may act with a firm footing on the level that matters. [...]

"Consider now, the world's poor and downtrodden pay their way with "cash" on the barrel-head. Not as a concerted demonstration of a shared class virtue or integrity, but because no one will extend to them credit. Truly, the wheels of the world are turned by these humble billions, even as you may for a time enjoy the ride.

"Where great populations of penniless millionaires can but ill-afford the cruel lesson of currency destruction taught in their "classroom" more persistently than in others, it has been gold as nothing else that offers steadfast comfort--never too "sophisticated" to faithfully represent the past labors of these "overlooked and unwashed multitudes".

"Where the smaller numbers of rich "wheel riders" may be exposed one day to a disaster upon their own currency, rendering the use of their credit next to null and void, it will be gold as nothing else that may rise up in this time of need to offer its assistance without prejudice for their past neglect or disdain. At such a time, gold will further lift the humble billions to a higher level of existence, as the open-eyed developed nations bring their services and technologies to compete for the golden savings of the little man."
-------------------------------------------------------------------
ANYONE with Gold will be ahead of the power curve, regardless of his disposition as a banker, oil sheik, or a regular ol' door mat like me. And to your credit, you are quick to recognize this in the post in question. You said, ---"Thus we have central banks needing to take in gold in order to issue non-debt currency that can prevent the dismall fate of Japan. Inflation of currency - Euro in particular - would require purchase of gold or of debt securities. Guess what the central bank would do when the debt system needs cash pushed in. They will purchase gold - good for us gold holders - very good for oil based gold accumulators."--- Though frankly, I don't know why oil Gold would be served any better (you said VERY good) than peasant Gold.

Just to touch quickly on your "Motives and actors" post (06/16/00; 15:10:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 32485), since it is somewhat related to items discussed above--you assert that the banking interests and the Fed have some awesome powers of influence that are exercised behind the scenes. Well, ok, maybe yes, maybe no. The Sun rises, we awake, and ultimately must live in the world be find before our puffy eyes. In 1933, Roosevelt removed Gold from the domestic currency. Does it matter whether he acted as a puppet or as his own man? In the end, we got what we got and had to face the day regardless. And what's more, the population elected him president...FOUR TIMES! Not to mention, EVERY OTHER free nation on Earth EVENTUALLY saw fit to pull Gold out of their own currency, too. Boy, the Fed and those cigar-chomping bankers sure have a long reach! (smile)

But ultimately, this is all for the best, if and only if ANOTHER's efforts for FreeGold can win the day. Just as we wouldn't want bankers diminishing the value of our real estate by inflating it and marking its value according to derivative markets on it, we surely don't want them doing that to our Gold, either. It is better to save our Gold, and let the banks fend for themselves against the resulting global collapse of their currencies that you see as inevitable. My view is somewhat more sanguine. I think some currencies will stand while others will fall, but in ANOTHER's scenario, they will all bow down before the excellence that is Gold. Nobody in their right mind will accumulate savings in the form of currency, That's the role of Gold. Currency will only be used to "grease the wheels of commerce" as its been said, and to meet the needs of the borrower. Hence, the value of the paper, such as it is, and such as it shall be. But make no mistake, Gold will be revealed as King, whereas today it is seemingly cringing upon its knees in peasant garb. The reason for that is well known, and the source of my personal satisfaction these days.

There is more, but it must wait for another time. It's been a pleasure, as always.

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle

Leland (06/16/00; 19:19:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 32494)
There Are Lots of Interesting Places on the Internet
Just for weekend reading...this was written by one of my
Wyoming relatives...His name is Rod Brown...If anyone wants
to contact him...let me know...leland@netarrant.net:

"It is our notion that as people stay in contact
with and become knowledgeable about their
careers, avocations, local societies, governments
and the international community, the more they
are empowered to bring about positive
constructive change in the world. In our modern
world one of the greater sources of this
knowledge and one of the more effective
methods of networking with others of common
interests is the Internet. And it is to that end that

we are attempting to make it available to
members of smaller rural communities, because
the voice of the few needs to be heard along with
the voice of the many.
Still, if sipping Arbuckle from a tin mug and
scraping beans off a tin platter were not spiced
with the occasional tall tale, it would make for a
pretty dull campfire. And so, we would like to
encourage you to enjoy some pleasures,
diversions and entertainment as well, as you
scout around the wilderness of the Internet.
To that end, we invite you to browse among a
number of sites that we thought might be of some
interest to various members of the Kaycee
Community."





HI - HAT (06/16/00; 19:11:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 32493)
THE CROWD
ORO : "If the director were to tell the crowd the story with the rest of the creative and organizing staff, would there be a croud to listen and see? Would there be any way to charge admission" ?

No. There is no way to charge admission, because there is very little demand in the crowd to know the story.

No matter how untenable things become, the crowd will support whatever orchestrated productions are devised to perpetuate some form of the paper loving, virtual reality World they have come to love.

They love the excapist driven paper dollar debt World.

The Bankster - Powers Chieftans know the "uneducated", unprincipled psychology of the crowd.

That the "commander in chief", has slithered out of 8 years of actionable legal infractions, all because the Public will not hear of anything that will interupt the greed-fest or remotely jeapordize the Infinity payment, is Telling.

We have but a little while ago crested and began the slide into economic, moral and cultural bankruptcy.

Was'nt it a long way down.

The Elite own the Movie Production Company. Hence Another - Foa and get out of the way of the oncoming train.

Will you have that I give you the Barabous LIE or the Christ TRUTH ?

GIVE US THE LIE

Solomon Weaver (06/16/00; 17:36:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 32492)
Jason, thanks for all the numbers on silver...which I agree only lead us to understand we don't really know what is out there....
Jason,

Thanks for the great update on silver.
Jason Happy (6/16/2000; 1:57:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 32441)
How much Silver is left in the world?
Solomon Weaver,

As much as my ego may be pleased to be referenced as a "source" for silver info, I'd rather the facts about silver inventories not rest on any of my allegations or prior speculations. I have tried to find out a more accurate answer to the question of "how much silver is left" since our last discussion, but it's still a fuzzy picture.

--

I remember reading about the melting of bags too...and in my mind it was at the silver institue site with their analysis of the silver market where the analyst indicated that bags were only usually called upon to be melted when there were critical shortages (short term).

The idea that there is about 1/15 the amount of silver above ground (ounces) as gold fits my thoughts well...just be careful that this is not something I said already here...since I certainly have...

An executive at a silver mining company told me that the physical players believe that Buffet has not sold his silver...although there seems to be some rumor that he does have some of it leased.

The 10 Billion USA Inventory circa end of WWII is a number used by Ted Butler (and I think he simplifies to keep his audience from getting lost in the numbers).

Given the low price of silver today, I believe that a rise in price will cause a run to "buy" silver, not to dishoard it...also remember that some gold dishoarding is due to liquidity issues....most silver hoarding would be that the owner sees the opportunity to get out at a price above the established trend...

Someone on this forum who stood in line at a pawn shop during the Hunt days said that they experienced that sometimes the shop would sell an item they just recieved to someone else in line wanting to buy silver.

Silver is a lovely, very useful metal which is absolutely critical to many high tech applications. Sorry to refute your friend, but given that the silver in film is only on a surface, and is much less than a silver foil would be, I would not be surprised if there is less than $0.01 per roll...there is more silver in the chemicals they process with (volume takes more than surface) but they recover this...what makes photo such a silver user is that there are billions of photos process per year.

If people can go crazy over the new quarters of the brassy dollar, are they not primed to jump on silver coins??? Also, when my mom was young, every newly married couple was given a bit of silver, and they often subcribed to a mail order system which allowed them to build the set up over time (meaning they invested). Last winter at an auction I picked up a lovely old set with originally 60 pieces (and a few now missing) for only $80. My wife and I did not yet own a set, and the motif was very old and classic looking, appealing to her European tastes...so I do not really care if I got a good deal....the point in this case is that were we to live in a culture that still valued silver heirlooms and silver dining experiences even for middle-class families, I am certain that set would have been considered an antique and bid up real high by a dealer....

Folks, gold is going to be an interesting story to watch, but I believe that the frenzy around silver is going to be much more vivid because it can still appeal to those folks who like to buy lottery tickets. At today's prices, silver is actually within reach of almost any world citizen who does not live in abject poverty. Even if there is not a fiat crisis, just the return to the idea that gold and silver are always worth having a bit of....could set the whole thing off...

Anyone remember the days when the average investment advisor considered having 10% of your asset base in PMs and rarities???

Poor old Solomon

Leland (06/16/00; 17:35:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 32491)
Michael, I Think Johnathan Will be a Little Busier Starting Next Week
Fri Jun 16 7:32pm ET - U.S. Markets Closed.
Dow
10449.30
-265.52 (-2.48%)

Aristotle (06/16/00; 17:21:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 32490)
Answers for totalamateur, in order.
I'd advise them not to operate in such a manner that would warrant targeting.

No. No. N.A.

No. Yes, but not advisable.

Run a trade surplus, and also get rid of excess dollar holdings before the collapse occurs--use them to buy Gold and other capital necessities.

As you've stated it, their currency would *become* Gold, and their specific action would DEFINE their price of Gold. As for the Gold's purchasing power, well, that would depend on the collective economic psyche--the shopping decisions--of that little nation's population. However, if they "overvalued" Gold compared to the rest of the world's population, they would be flooded with Gold from the rest of the world in exchange for the nation's exports. Soon, the nation would experience a Gold inflation, and the "overvalued" condition would wane.

It is only correct insofar as the "anyone" that you've mentioned will possess the means with which to acquire these newly cheap dollars. On a national scale, a net exported could; a net importer could not.

These same thoughts may also apply to those of you who have been mulling over a small nation returning to a silver standard.

Free Market Gold. Settle for nothing less. ---Aristotle

Aristotle (06/16/00; 16:57:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 32489)
Taking a stab at Topaz's question--
"In the context of the Common Currency, how do they envisage counteracting the disparity between members productive efforts over time so the benefit flows to the individual contries and not just pooled for the common good or bad vis a vis Ireland/Italy?"

Hmmmmmmmmmm... I'm not really sure that I follow your drift, Topaz. When my optic nerves interpret and translate the question into a form I am capable of answering, this is the form it takes when it reaches my American brain--
"In the context of the Common Currency, what happens when a business area is found to exhibit superior productive efforts over time? How will they ensure that the benefits of the profits go to the source of the productivity rather than being pooled for the common good or bad vis a vis General Motors vs. Ford, or else Alabama vs. Pennsylvannia?"

I guess I see things much as we see things here in the States where we also have a Common Currency. Those who are most productive will have swelling accounts, and therefore will have the benefits of greater "shopping" opportunities.

In your question, specifically, if Ireland puts its shoulder to the wheel and outperforms Italy, then those doing the work will be enriched thereby, and will enjoy a higher standard of living. As far as the tendency to "even out," it would be a natural one. Italians, free to move about, will possibly want to relocate there, whereas rich Irishmen, looking for cheap labor and real estate to expand their production may very well expand their operation in Italy--in this example. That's what the Maastricht Treaty was all about.

Let me know how far I missed the gist of your question.

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle

totalamateur (06/16/00; 16:41:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 32488)
How to survive the financial holocaust?

If you had the ear of the head of state of a small country, what advice should be given to someone who is tired of Soroses and other sorrows wrecking havoc with their currency?

Would a country's unilateral return to the gold standard be a good idea? Would it work? If so, what would be the best way to go about it?

Would pegging of the currency to the Euro be the solution? Can this be done unilaterally?

What is the best thing a small country can do to play it safe in the face of a collapse of the US$

If a country suddenly declared that they returned to the gold standard, what would happen to their currency and how would it affect the price of gold?

When the dollar collapses, it seems that anyone having a sizable dollar debt would be happy and able to repay that debt with cheap not to say worthless dollars. Is this a correct assumption?

You guys out there that have a better understanding of these matters, please, I really need to know these things and so do probably a lot of others, especially the ones that are interested in savib g their countries from going down the drain along with the declining dollar!


SHIFTY (06/16/00; 16:01:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 32487)
NY Ponzi
Nasdaq 3,860.56 + Dow 10,449.30 = 14,309.86 divide by 2 = 7,154.93 Ponzi

Down 125.35 Ponzi points

ORO (06/16/00; 15:49:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 32486)
Continued...
The stage is populated by the actors playing various characters in a play.

The director, playwright(s), producer(s) and the little cashier people don't appear on stage. Though the actors sell the play to the public, they did not write it, did not make it happen, and often they do not understand it.

If the director were to tell the crowd the story with the rest of the creative and organizing staff, would there be a crowd to listen and see? would there be any way to charge admission?

ORO (06/16/00; 15:10:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 32485)
Aristotle - Motives and actors on stage
I just saw your post quoting yourself, FOA and I on the oily dollar.

Thanks!!

After this series of posts I continued doing some reading on the political background and motivations of apparent participants and hidden ones (those are only identified by fleeting clues in the historical political archives). Among the books were "The Creature from Jeckyl Island", "Payback" (the retribution of the banks for Milken's and the S&Ls destruction of their margins), and quotes from Quigley's "Tragedy and Hope", as well as Volcker's memoir and others.

The best way I can relate what I learned can be put in this form:
"Political decisions start in a mysterious hall in a banker's club in hushed voices where 'what must be done' needs no mention among the great and powerful and a few nods bring forth whispered instructions to the advisers and key persons that will create a news hubub, will push ideas onto the politicos, and extract from them a remarkably close approximation of the intentions whispered in that hall."

The self aggrandizing and worship seeking politico will allways fall into the hands of mild mannered advisors with an agenda that is meant to serve other interests. The charismatic politicos are selected for their (intentional) blindness to reality and for their intense desire to win over popular support, or the support of particular groups, and to enlarge and retain the power that makes them more secure in their god-like view of themselves.

The best determination of where power lies and decision making occurs, is the determination of the beneficiaries of particular actions in government policy. Unless quickly reversed, the new policy's beneficiaries will normally be the "powers".

In economics, the studies funded by government agencies (including the Fed's BOG and the several Fed regional banks) indicate the directions being explored for future policy - either for finding excuses for upcoming policy changes - or for more detailed study of the effects it might have on particualr parties.

The fact that particular agendas were followed and that they often come out of the Fed and bankers from the late 1890s through today is enough evidence of who it is that makes the rules.

The full float of the dollar came right out of the Fed and got there from one of the major banks' top people. The greatest suspicion falls on Chase and some of their larger clients (that make up a Kairetsu or "combine"), but the idea was probably much more widely supported in banking circles.

The sudden passing of the Glass-Steagal (sp?) repeal just AFTER Citi and Traveller's announced their merger (which required the repeal in order to go through) and just BEFORE it was finalized, coincides with the X US Treasurer's sudden appearance at the top of the cobined entity with a non-descript job that pays very well.

The creation of the Fed itself and the way the enabling legislation was snuck through congress? The fact that FDR's "New Deal" (with gold confiscation on page 1) was put on Hoover's desk years before FDR was a candidate - and that it was placed there by Fed officials? That congress passed the bills that provided FDR with the official authority to do what he had already done minutes after inauguration (signed the plan that Hoover refused) sight unseen (a copy was passed among a few congressmen 45 mins before the vote) 5 days after the orders were signed?

I would say that the history of banker's power and their control over politics (it is not overwhelmingly complete and they are not quite as unified a group as one might think from reading this) and the distinctly socialist agenda they partner with in such a perverse manner are enough to lead anyone with open eyes to the conclusion that power stays outside the Oval office and congress most of the time.

Bankers and politicos are in the confidence game, they both provide impossible promises they don't intend to keep, and specialize in blaming the public for believing them. In public they cut away chunks of flesh from their starved victims as punishment for the victims not being as fat as they had promised the hungry crowd they would be. Obviously, the crowd does not get much.







USAGOLD (06/16/00; 14:20:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 32484)
Leland. . .
Jonathan will be a junior at Notre Dame this fall. Business major. Dean's list. Starting to talk about grad school.

He's taken an order or two from esteemed members of this table. Will be with the firm through July.

Thanks for asking, Leland.

TownCrier (06/16/00; 14:15:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 32483)
Scarcity...an extra level of appeal
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html
For those of you yet contemplating whether or not to add a few of these Uruguay coins to your gold portfolio while they last, here's a bit of trivia for you to consider.

According to the figures that have reached us here in The Tower, the entire mintage of these Uruguayan 5 pesos gold coins could be contained in just ten regular shoe boxes. That's right. If you gathered up every one of these coins from all corners of the globe, they could be be stored in only two cubic feet of space.

So, if you're not of a mind to make a substantial diversification into gold yet, or maybe you already have, you still might want to take advantage of this rare offer (Centennial's first, and maybe last(?)) to pick up a few of these coins for your personal satisfaction as a worldly gold connoisseur.

ORO (06/16/00; 13:52:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 32482)
Revisiting Hathaway's Pyramid
I say that Hathaway's inverted pyramid is the perfect representation of leverage at work and my take on it is this (in the monetary arena):

Interest & currency D R I V A T I V E S
Bonds & Currencies
Bank currency Assets
Bank currency Liabilities
Monetary base of currency
Gold (PM) derivatives
Gold (PM) debt
Gold (PM)

Gold stands at the bottom of the pyramid and is the center of money and finance. The pyramid is inverted and therefore it is unstable. Governments and banks cooperate in adding to it on one side and the other so that it does not topple from a dislocation of its center of gravity. When it does fall, all the financial values "borrowed" from gold return to their original repository.

The governments and banks trying to stabilize the pyramid as it grows with each addition of wieght, eventually become powerless to maintain it. When this is forseen by some, they will build an alternative structure and transfer their efforts to that structure. The moment that effort at stabilization is over, the disaster happens.

The WA signatories and oil are saying (interpretation of ANOTHER here) that they are taking their gold right out from under the pyramid. Needless to say it will fall.

Journeyman (06/16/00; 13:48:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 32481)
The BIG lie @ORO, Hill Billy Mitchell, ALL

ORO, I think not only has Another et.al. sold "the lie" that fiat
can work in concert with freely traded gold to the
grabb&loan-its, but to himself as well.
Or perhaps there's a gold-bug in deep cover that's conned everyone in to believing "the lie."
Assuming we're correct that fiat and gold can't coexist, perhaps we should be careful not to
disabuse any of them of their notions.

At any rate, I think, keeping the assertion that FOA/Another may
believe their own story in mind, it's appropriate to re-post the
following:

Previously posted as "Gold Will Rise Again!" Jan. 20, 2000

FOA's Overviews: A different interpretation:

Sheesh! With PERMAFROST (MID#22242), Aristotle, Solomon Weaver,
Peter Asher, Goldfan, Oro, etc. it's hard to keep up let alone
say anything new. So I'll just try for a more radical spin, a
radical spin I believe is probable, however.

With all due respect to FOA -- I've learned a LOT from his posts,
and hope to learn a lot more -- once the scenario he is
suggesting gets up a head of steam, the end result, particularly
with the wired world of tomorrow (even the wired world of today,)
the results will rapidly evolve out of the hands of those
traditional elites who truly believe they will remain in control.

"Our stance is and always has been that the world will be
using paper digital currencies for the rest of our lifetime.
I for one, have never heard any official voice his stance
that we will move back into a gold standard." -FOA (1/19/00;
8:53:32MDT - Msg ID:23197)

The Soviet hierarchy had no concept that peristroika
(restructuring) and glassnost (openness) would lead to the
dissolution of the Soviet Union either. -J.

"Their (Euroland) direction has always been to keep a
reserve currency system and strengthen it with a free
physical gold market trading in the background." -FOA
(1/19/00; 8:53:32MDT - Msg ID:23197)

Of course! No banker or governmentalist wants the dicipline of
REDEEMABLE gold interfering with his profits or his "social
engineering" or his bureaucratic empire building. They all want
their cake and they want to eat it too. They want to jump up and
down and point to the gold they have and loudly proclaim, in
essence, "Look! We're rich - - - we have all this gold. So when
we print-up or electronically create these inherently worthless
monetary units, you can trust us to keep the supply limited!
Remember we have gold!! Rah! Rah! Rah! We have gold!" Can you
say "non-sequitur?"

Should you ask one of them, "Will you redeem your monetary units
for that gold you like to flout," you would get an incredulous
stare, and if it was a stare from a rare informed individual in
an uncharacteristically honest mood, "Do you think we're crazy!
If we let all that gold that we have locked up in our vaults out
into 'the peoples'' hands, why, gold would become a major
competitor to our inherently worthless monetary units! We
couldn't harvest the seigniorage (profit) from creating and
lendingthem nor could we profit by 'inflating' the money supply!"

In none of our meetings have we heard where a fear was
expressed that the governments will lose control of digital
currencies and give it (that control) back to gold. That is
simply not going to happen, no matter how severe a down turn
the loss of the American dollar system creates. Believe it."
-FOA (1/19/00; 8:53:32MDT - Msg ID:23197)

Call me Pollyanna but . . . Things are NOT going to be under
government or Central Bank control, especially in the digital
age. Governments will not "give control back to gold," -- gold
will take control back. Once gold tokens begin to circulate on
the internet as REDEEMABLE E-tokens (and they will -- ASK me),
the genie is out of the bottle and the camel has it's nose in the
banker's tent. What do you want YOUR savings denominated in,
irredeemable, depreciating E-dollars, irredeemable soon-to-
depreciate E-euros, or REDEEMABLE E-gold?

When you trade with "foreigners" (either buying or selling,) do
you want to have to translate prices from a foreign currency into
your own? Do you want to have to include foreign exchange costs
in every cross-border transaction and deal with constantly
varying exchange rates that effectively change prices from day to
day and even hour to hour?

Once people can see gold in competition with fiat, fiat pleads
"nolo contendre" (no contest.) In the classic 1790s French
inflation for instance, the French "Congress" (called the
"National Convention") passed measure after measure in the vain
attempt to protect their brand of fiat paper currency, called
"assignats," against competition from "specie," that is from gold
and silver money:

"To reach the climax of ferocity, the Convention decreed, in
May 1794, that the death penalty should be inflicted on any
person convicted of 'having asked, before a bargain was
concluded, in what money [assignats or specie] payment was
to be made.' The great finance minister, Cambon, soon saw
that the worst enemies of his policy were gold and silver.
Therefore it was that, under his lead, the Convention closed
the Exchange and finally, on November 13, 1793, under
terrifying penalties, suppressed all commerce in the
precious metals." -Andrew Dickson White, Fiat Money
Inflation In France, (Irvington-on-Hudson, New York: The
Foundation for Economic Education, INC. 1959), p. 78 & 79

This is the power of gold which modern banksters and
governmentalists -- AND FOA -- have apparently forgotten.

Consider that what's actually being done in the case of the Euro
folks "marking their gold to market" every few weeks and what the
IMF calls "revaluing their gold" is really in both cases,
"marking their currencies to gold." As long as this isn't
recognized, as long as we and the world continue to conceptually
assume the dollar, euro, yen, etc. are the standards against
which trade value is measured, they can get away with such
semantic perversions.

Once the various currency blocks begin to use gold for
settlement, they're caught between a rock and the gold spot --
the true value of their fiat E-currencies versus gold will be
available for all to see. As soon as this is more in the open,
with exchange rates quoted in gold, and first cross-border prices
and later internal prices quoted in gold, the jig will begin to
rise (the jig has to rise before it can be "up".) Gold will once
again serve it's "barometer function," demonstrating the
depreciation of fiat currencies. Combine this with availability
of internet REDEEMABLE E-gold, and soon the fiat jig will be up!

How soon? Well, I broke my crystal ball awhile back, and haven't
been moved to replace it. But these days, things often happen a
lot more quickly than expected.

Regards,
Journeyman

ADDENDUM: As Oro remarked a few months ago, ~"Be careful when you
go out with another's girlfriend," referring to the fact that a
large percentage of gold is held by Central Banks. This brings
up the possibility of the old problem the bankers continually
face: Two tiered gold prices; the "official" doctored price (like
the $42 per oz. fiction the IMF was attempting to protect until
the recent "revaluing") and the free market price. The threat to
dump all this gold could also be a spoiler hanging over the head
of E-gold -- but maybe the need in international settlements use
precludes or at least tempers this kind of behavior? Oro?
TownCrier? Aristotle?

Additionally, this circumstance should make it clear that we TRUE
goldmeisters should LOVE the gold carry trade and gold leasing --
anything that would pry more gold out of the hands of the Central
Bankers. Instead, we constantly rail against it because it
temporarily decreases the price in dollars. Well, the Washington
Agreement has probably made that a moot point.

DISCLAIMER: "Prediction is very difficult, especially of the
future." -Yogi Berra


ORO (06/16/00; 13:36:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 32480)
Aristotle - the oily dollar
Aristotle, you point out the issue of oil backed dollars going back into the early 60s and keeping up (through grudging support of OPEC) through the 70s.

Yes, this was a calculated ratio of oil to dollars playing part in the "allowed" growth rate of monetary aggregates through the period (which is still arbitrary so far as I'm concerned - just like tuning the monetary expansion to the memory size and chip speed for the new silicon gushers and the upcoming bandwidth gusher). And as far as this forced more dollars to be held by oil importers in reserves and accellerated dollar indebtedness by the quickest growing economies, it was enjoying a short term success, as dollars continued to dominate the reserve holdings of central banks.

There is a key problem, however, the dollars would not go away, but the oil did.
The relative price of oil via other items was not high enough - and could not be held high enough to make the dollars stick in the reserves and to be demanded for debt repayment in great enough quantities to absorb all the new dollar printing. The reason was that oil was mispriced relative to everything else (too high a price) because of the absurdly high historical fixed gold contract price in OPEC member's minds.

I say again. Had the oil accumulated as did the dollars, it would have worked, but it could not. Another point is that the marginal value of oil products was falling like a rock as the new fibers, bags, car parts etc. made of plastics (oil's second most voluminous use) had displaced other materials because they were so cheap to make. And higher gas mileage cars and dual fuel gas-oil power plants were lowering demand for oil relative to output.

As is usual, the monetary expansionists were looking for and found some excuse to link their buggy to, and off to the races on exploding the money supply.

Needless to say, the marginal value of oil was falling through the 60s by what could only be described as leaps off of cliffs but suddenly local supply stopped and just at that time, the dollar went off its redeemability in gold just as the US was about to lose its last ounce.

The oily dollar was a failure just like the gold debt dollar was a failure. The gold debt dollar at least managed to survive 16 years before system failure and the foreign debt dollar managed to survive 27 years and a war (38 if you include the 1961-1971 period). The oily dollar started sinking immediately upon its release from its remaining ties to gold.

lamprey_65 (06/16/00; 12:59:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 32479)
Quixotic1
Yes, the Baker is one of my favorite spots...plan on being in that area in two weeks.

Awful hot today...mainly fished -- got a few small brookies.



ORO (06/16/00; 12:58:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 32478)
Ari, HBM, Penny - they = Grabit and lendit
I've been away from the Forum for a coupla' days due to time and technical constaintsso I'll address things as quickly as I can in separate posts as I go through forum comments.

Since the question arises of what it is that I mean in the statement that ANOTHER sold the Grab 'n lend it the same song and dance they have performed for us I mean the centrality of fiat debt money, of the possibility of its function "as described on the package".

The public has been sold both the fiduciary gold and the fiat debt money as supposedly workable monetary systems. Governments and banks know this is not the case. That is why both items were introduced and the gold taken off the markets and held by government and the few of the powerful who understand what gold is and how it works vs. how fiduciary gold and its fiat debt money substitute work (or don't).

What ANOTHER seems to have done (seems to me) is sell the grab 'n lendit the idea (the "LIE") that 1. They can work the fiat system without a direct gold (and PM) hookup without causing it to collapse, 2. That if they actually do so there is still some sort of gain for them to be had from this.

I say again, pure debt money lives in boom bust land with cycles that are short enough in time to make it obvious to the densest of the iliterati that it does not work. Thus (1) is not really possible.

The only time that it has been workable and stable is when Gresham's Law has been taken into account (as Mundel explains): i.e. bad money displaces the good UNTIL THERE IS NO MORE GOOD MONEY TO DISPLACE, then GOOD MONEY DRIVES OUT THE BAD.

This means that people will use fiat instead of the displaced good moneys only so long as no more fiat is issued by loan or in cash than allows PM price levels to remain steady when traded in the "uncontrolled" market.

This means that the only circumstance of (1) working is if it does not benefit those operating it. Therefore (2) is not possible either.

--------------------

When push comes to shove and things start keeling over is when one needs the real money at hand. In the interim one is not interested in the purchasing power of this holding, but in obtaining as much of it as one can at the lowest possible cost in real goods and invested capital. Unfortunately, when things keel over new rules pop up with the unfulfillable promise of resuming past patterns that kept people happy. The point of these new rules is to take whatever is left in good health after disaster strikes from those that have it and transfer it to the "big shots", organized groups with power or popular support, and to politicians and bureaucrats.

The final point here regards the rules that ANOTHER and FOA imply will take hold during/after the fact of collapse are such that people will be able to hold the gold this time around so that the big shots and oil can obtain "full value" out of the metal. This despite cutting out most of the demand for gold arising from attempts at fulfilling debt obligations by allowing selective default on them.


Leland (06/16/00; 11:59:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 32477)
Working on Learning Linux...Have a Switch Box...As Soon as Possible...I'll Switch to the Linux Computer
.

Leland (6/16/2000; 11:53:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 32476)
Whoo! Bill Gates, I Think You're WROOONGGG!

Friday June 16 1:28 PM ET

Bill Gates Gets Honorary Degree

TOKYO (AP) - Bill Gates' legal battles haven't soured him on the computer revolution.

The Microsoft founder received an honorary degree from a
Japanese university Friday and told students information technology
will remake the world in the next decade.

Last week, a U.S. judge ordered Microsoft to split into two
companies.

Gates assured his young audience of Microsoft's commitment to continue building software, and
predicted that student chores like note-taking would one day be done on computerized tablets.

``We're just at the beginning of this revolution,'' he said. ``Even in the next 10 years, we'll do more to
change society than we've done in the last 25.''

(Excuse my DISBELIEF...Golly...What is This World Coming to?...And Fair Use For Educational/Research Purposes Only.)

Aristotle (6/16/2000; 11:49:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 32475)
We've been down this road before
ORO, again, in regard to your comment:
"The US needed higher relative oil prices so that domestic or near domestic supplies could refill the oil supply gap. Rather than that being a motive for dollar inflation and the closure of the gold window, as Aristotle, ANOTHER and FOA contend, I believe the US was insolvent in the first place, the events were the classic events surrounding a "bank run", and inflation was necessary to undo the deflationary pressures from an overextended debt system. The higher relative oil prices were just the results of this policy, though a much desired result from a strategic viewpoint."
my previous post should make it quite clear that my feeling was that the situation with oil evolved in an effective sense into "backing" for the dollar to replace the role previously held by Gold. You will also know from my past posts that I fully recognize that oil producers accepted paper dollars in payment only because the avenue was there to use them to acquire the Gold, which was truly viewed as the end payment.

To further remove any doubt on my agreement with this issue of the U.S. being "insolvent in the first place" as you put it, please review the following well-travelled road to remove any doubt. This original post was also directed to you, so I'm doubly confounded how you've mistaken my individual postion on this matter. Oh well. Certain abuses must be expected when one willingly takes on the new role as door mat.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Aristotle (01/18/00; 15:40:51MDT - Msg ID:23135) For ORO "Aristotle - Madness and Method. Have you had a chance to review my source quotations and references?" --ORO (1/18/00; 12:35:56MDT - Msg ID:23127)
I did, ORO. I'm glad you took my comments in the constructive light with which they were offered. To reiterate, my comments, then and now, were to raise your awareness to the interpretive pitfalls (seeing method in madness, and vice versa) so that you would be perhaps better able to walk the firm path of historical facts, focusing on the outcome moreso than the motive. To be sure, wherever good fortune and position has given you a glimpse behind the scenes for solid insight into the motives, you can use this knowledge to enhance your historical reporting and to focus your investigative energies in fruitful directions. Clearly, the best "degree" to qualify someone as an event's historian is the B.Th degree -- Being There. A privilege shared by a precious few.

Speaking of Being There: Kissinger. You said, "The plan for the mechanics of closing the gold window was prepped by Volcker himself (then at Treasury) in detail at least 4 months before the decision was made. The time reference is ambiguous but the planning started in late 1970. An interesting point was that no Kissinger people were at the meeting where the decision was made."

You're absolutely right. As I, too, mentioned in my long post, Kissinger was not there at Camp David as the momentous decision was made to terminate the Gold convertibility of the dollar under the "New Economic Policy." Along with the absence of Kissinger's National Security Council, neither was William P. Rogers's State Department invited to participate in this final development. They were completely in the dark and taken by surprise. When word reached Alexander Haig (then Deputy National Security Advisor) that day of the decision made at Camp David that day (Sunday August 15, 1971), he reportedly phoned Robert Hormats (then staff economist for the National Security Council) at his home and said, "Bob, they've devalued the dollar up at Camp David. How important is that?"

For someone that was unsure of the importance of the decision, at least Haig chose the right terminology--they "devalued the dollar." In fact, they devalued the dollar all the way down to zero Gold weight--completely bankrupt.

Present at the Camp David meetings were John Connelly (Treasury Secretary), Paul Volcker (Undersecretary for Monetary Affairs), Aurthur Burns (Fed Chairman), Paul McCracken (Economic Council chairman), George Shultz (OMB director), Bob Haldeman (White House aide), Peter Peterson (Commerce Secretary), Herbert Stein (on the Council of Economic Advisors), and William Safire (White House speechwriter) -- as reported by Washington Post economics columnist Hobart Rowan.

So while an elite group was "in the know," our outreach arm was caught completely flat-footed; and Hormats, who had plenty of worldly political experience, was said to be stunned and knew that America's trading partners were also in the dark, and would not be pleased--to make an understatement. Haig met with Hormats in the White House later that day, and together with Volcker when he returned from Camp David they hastily prepared official statements for Japan, Germany, England, and France explaining the "development." When Hormats called Sidney Weintraub at the State Department to coordinate this effort, Weintraub was found to be in the dark. The U.S.'s own State Department was then added to the long list of nations' capitals needing briefing on the fateful decision. Absolutely surreal.

Here's a another glimpse at some of the poor grasp of matters and the loosely coordinated madness of the day, revealing that Gold was not intended to be gone for good. This is an exchange from the Nixon tapes between President Nixon and Bob Haldeman nearly a year later on June 23, 1972.

Bob Haldeman: "Did you get the report that the British floated the pound?"
President Nixon: "I don't think so."
Haldeman: "They did."
Nixon: "That's devaluation?"
Haldeman: "Yeah. Flanigan's got a report on it here." [that would be White House assistant Peter F.]
Nixon: "I don't care about it. Nothing we can do about it."
Haldeman: "You don't want a run-down?"
Nixon: "No, I don't."
Haldeman: "He argues it shows the wisdom of our refusal to consider convertibility until we get a new monetary system." [*!*!*]
Nixon: "Good. I think he's right. It's too complicated for me to get into. ...[unintelligible comment]...I understand."
Haldeman: "[Fed Chairman Aurther] Burns is concerned about speculation about the lira."
Nixon: "Well, I don't give a f@<% about the lira."

Just a little perspective-building food for thought.
In response to the text you offered following my comments, I liked it very well--a good historical presentation. It was delivered very well, and avoided the pitfalls toward which I was waving a cautionary hand. I'm confident you can in this fashion successfully deliver your important and valid message without the need to build the case of motives and deliberate (yet "unprovable") policy decisions. Regardless of the specific steps taken to get us here, the snapshots of our location remain the same. Your camera captures such detailed images of the facts and figures of the landscape at hand that your niche is secure. Keep in mind that my thoughts to you are offered under the assumption that you are working on a book for publication. Where it comes down to the thoughts you serve up for the forum, the nature of the media would certainly allow you to interpret "out loud" the motives you perceive behind the facts. Far be it from me to curb your analysis. Again, I completely approve (book-wise) of the flavor of that latter post. Discussion-wise, they are BOTH well at home on the forum here.
Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle
---------------------------------------------------------------------
To be sure, I pointed out specifically--- "For someone that was unsure of the importance of the decision, at least Haig chose the right terminology--they "devalued the dollar." In fact, they devalued the dollar all the way down to zero Gold weight--completely bankrupt." I certainly mention bankruptcy there, and the main point was that Haig was yet smart enough to know that it wasn't Gold at the time being "demonetized," but rather, the Dollar that was being devalued.

Well, I'm sure I've taken up enough space for now. The ol' stomach is growling anyway.

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle

Galearis (6/16/2000; 11:38:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 32474)
@ Jason Happy and SteveH
Cudos to you both for your posts this day.
Jason, it was nice to see another take on the virtually impossible task of estimating the above ground silver supplies, a monumental effort (and likely fruitless) given the murky atmosphere one has to peer through to see the landscape. The silver institute unfortunately is almost certainly an unreliable source for accuracy given its funding sources. Nevertheless and FWIW November/December is the time line I have also settled with for a TOCOM dead market in the white. It was nice to see someone go through the process again.

However, this means little unless there is a complete break with the paper markets (COMEX must fall and the paper must burn), there must be "reregulation" of the ways and means of these pm markets, and ultimately a new market somewhere started for a clearing house of trades. The problem for gold and silver bugs, as I see it, can be viewed right now at the TOCOM with Palladium - which (although at about 1% of its former business) still marks Palladium to paper and we do not know what the market value for the metal is. Do you all see yourselves phoning up prospective customers at GM or Ford, etc. and asking for their buying price for the metal itself? My frequent muse...
Of course one would not have the same problem should the US dollar totally collapse.... Barter, yes?

Which brings me to comment on SteveH's repost of Sharefins Kitco post. $30,000/oz gold sure, and then there really is a barter economy and gold bugs and silver bugs will do just fine. But the real question here is what the POG is in EUROs. Since it was not mentionned, one has to assume that the EURO will have met too much resistance coming down the birth canal to land on its feet.

Am late, must take reluctant leave...

Aristotle (6/16/2000; 11:13:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 32473)
Returning to a well-travelled road to clarify positions
ORO, while I await elaboration on my previous question, here's an item from your 06/14/00 #: 32319 post I can address in the meantime. You said: -------"The US needed higher relative oil prices so that domestic or near domestic supplies could refill the oil supply gap. Rather than that being a motive for dollar inflation and the closure of the gold window, as Aristotle, ANOTHER and FOA contend, I believe the US was insolvent in the first place, the events were the classic events surrounding a "bank run", and inflation was necessary to undo the deflationary pressures from an overextended debt system. The higher relative oil prices were just the results of this policy, though a much desired result from a strategic viewpoint."---------

It seems that you have somewhat modified and solidified your original view on this, but that you've also cast me, FOA, and ANOTHER into the opposing camp, which was never the case. Here's a review from the archives.

From your ORO (1/12/00; 10:01:35MDT - Msg ID:22773) we see some of your commentary on this, showing that you weighed in on possible designs of policy makers to devalue the dollar to spur on domestic production:
--------"The reason the US went off of gold did have to do with oil offering backing for the dollar, on an "as needed" bassis, but there was a reason that was necessary. The reason was the meteoric rise of government expenditure in that era. The US was throwing fiscal and balance of payments caution to the winds till the last day before going off the gold standard.
[...] I think it was the "strategic" element of the time, a malevolent and reluctant Soviet system and China in complete chaos in the "cultural revolution", led by psycopathic crackpots, that played a part in convincing Europe and Oil to back the scheme. There was a need to continue support for the US so that it could retain/gain superiority over the Soviets. The "exorbitant privelege" had to be maintained for both the sake of the US and of Europe. For Arab oil, pricing was fine so long as they got their "fair" amount of gold per barrel. The Europeans would pay for the US military sevice by taking US dollars.
[...] I suggest two things regarding the ill-conceived ideas of the decision makers of the time. (1) Their motive was not to secure "strategic" oil supplies alone, but to make sure the whole world pays the price of this strategic decision, whether they want to or not. (2) In the way a large debtor can destroy his creditors, the US and the global banking system built around its rag of a currency did not want to lose control of their banking and commercial empires through the process of bankruptcy, and resorted to threatening their creditors with it. The resulting rollover of US debt resulted in perpetuation of the problem for the next generation, and allowed the continuation of American debt accumulation.
[...] Throughout the 70s gold prices rose till the dollar was near its historical level of coverage by the gold backing it. Not surprisingly, oil was finally found and produced at precisely that point in time. However, the price of oil in other goods was too high, and the price of gold was still way too low. The proportional price of oil and gold still left the ratio far from that of natural occurrence - by a factor of ten. This is the reason the Arab oil countries accepted this deal, and why the US offered it (or was it the other way around?). It allowed the US to retain its horrendously overvalued dollar collecting a toll on worldwide oil. The concept of the leaders of the time, BIS included, that money supply should be coupled to economic development is a great piece of lunacy, second only to the idea that a central bank stabilizes the banking system.
[...]But let that stand for now and move to the issue of alternate options for maintaining a "healthy" (politically, not economically) domestic supply of oil. The actual target of any policy would be to raise the price of oil relative to everything else, or to lower its cost of production through subsidy.
#If the US was interested in this outcome alone, it would have simply subsidized oil exploration in "approved" areas where US military has easy access. The downside is that all the burden of subsidy falls on the shoulders of the US government, who then needs to finance this from taxes or from printing currency. This would either slow the economy or devalue the currency while still slowing the economy after a miraculous period of wasted resources and capital. It also has the odd tendency to not produce the necessary international seigniorage that selling your gold 10 times over could produce when coupled with a goodly trade deficit. #Another option is tarrifs on imported oil. The tarrif would be a net income generator for the US, but would cause costs of oil to local industry to be higher than they are to foreign industry. The result would be that the tarrif on oil would translate into a margin benefit for foreign petroleum product manufacturers. The foreign manufacturer would gain market share away from local manufacturers and further damage the US production base, already suffering from the dollar's overvaluation. The dollar was then some 2.3 times overvalued. The dollar would have to come down to the point of the economy being able to export on a fair value bassis, or below that. The important point is that the tarrif solution is incompatible with seigniorage. It was, therefore, not helpful in the collection of global payments of the tribute that financed the cold war. #The choice that was made, was to continue overpricing oil in gold, for the benefit of the oil meisters, while constructing an elaborate debt trading structure to avoid the dollar from facing the reality of its value. ."-------End of ORO repost

To show you a clear example that you have misidentified which side of the fence FOA and I have come down on, here was my reply to your comments from that post, and also a look at what FOA had to say about it.
----------------------------------------------
Aristotle (1/13/00; 1:17:56MDT - Msg ID:22810) How much wisdom in our anals of history; how much deliberate choice? ORO, On the whole, this output is your best yet in both clarity of thought and presentation. Kudos. A distinct pleasure to read. But, (there's always a "but" isn't there?) the sheer size and comprehensive scope of the material, defies any reasonable means for me (if I were to be so bold) to provide some of the feedback you are seeking. The ability to apply digital "post-it" notes to your on-line text would be required--to rave at the many flashes of brilliance, and to suggest possible course-corrections or avenues for further thought and discussion.

Taken as a whole then, you are possibly making one mistake in your inferences/conclusions regarding the official decision-making process that rests behind the scenes now in monetary history. You are possibly giving the officials of the day too much credit. With your 20/20 hindsight you are able to see the events of the day with the benefit of a perspective they did not share. You do a marvelous job of making the several important arguments from the several sides of the issues, but in truth, these guys were often flying by the seat of their pants, reacting as necessary to bail enough water to keep the boat afloat. It would seem that even when considering the conference of Bretton Woods in 1944, (and the IMF revamping summit in Jamaica in 1976,) the world has not seen such a concerted, thorough, and intelligent thought given to monetary matters as your suggestions would imply until the era of Maastricht arrived.

To wit, the dollar wasn't backed with oil because it was carefully calculated to be the most superior form of monetary arrangement. You, yourself, have had very little trouble poking at the flaws of such a scheme. In the eyes of the officials involved at the time, what was done was perhaps the most expedient course of "policy," for the day, and the concept of oil "backing" the dollar by any fair assessment is most probably a de facto result of the path of least political resistance coupled with our perceptive advantage of hindsight. Meaning, at the time, it was not expressly determined that oil would replace Gold in a new form of "commodity standard," but effectively, hindsight reveals that's effectively what we got -- the approximate result of evolving policy and trade agreements that maintained dollars as the currency of oil settlement (even after the Bretton Woods notion of Gold for $35 went beyond a blushing fiction to unabashed fantasy--followed by the reality of "nothing" when the window closed in 1971.) Even in those following days, many significant players expected this condition to be temporary [which I will address in a following post] --with Gold to be refitted to the monetary framework under some new form of workable terms. (Or should I say, they expected the monetary framework to be refitted to accomodate meaningful Gold settlement--we all know that only Gold is "money" in this modern world.)

To reiterate, I'm not calling into question the quality of your analysis and arguments, but rather, that you have given credit (of dubious quality, to be sure) to the policy makers where none was due. You've assumed a "Method" where, in fact, there was only "Madness."

Final food for thought: policy is set by politicians (not by intellectuals), and the quality of those so employed has not changed much between then and now. (At least by giving them too much credit you've avoided the other popular fallacy of assuming them to be hopeless and complete idiots. <grin>) But had the likes of an ORO or Antal Fekete been given full latitude in shaping the policy of that day, there is little doubt in my mind that we would all be better off today. But as it is, we are only now after 30 years repairing the financial architecture with the euro, bringing Gold back out of the shadows.

And as always, being a mere child in the world, I reserve the right to be spectacularly wrong in my perception of these issues. After you consider how much rationalization is appropriate for painting our history as a deliberate and calculated act, you are free to carry on.
Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle
------------------------------------------------------
And here is what FOA said:
FOA (1/13/00; 6:29:59MDT - Msg ID:22820) (No Subject) Aristotle (1/13/00; 1:17:56MDT - Msg ID:22810)
Aristotle, I could have just posted your item and not said anything! Just read it and had to note it. Good stuff.
Quickly Gone for good now,,,,,,,,,,FOA
-------------------------------------------------------
I will also have a follow-up to this point, further supporting my postion made above which runs counter to the claim you've now made.

Gold. Get you some...from Uruguay! ---Aristotle

Leigh (6/16/2000; 10:47:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 32472)
American Eagle Screensaver
http://www.usmint.gov/reading_room/dloads.cfm
Looking for a way to spread the word about gold in your office? Download this beautiful screensaver, which shows the silver, gold, and platinum eagles in all their glory. Your coworkers will be hanging out at your desk to watch the eagles!

Leland (6/16/2000; 10:37:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 32471)
Kudos to Michael...Tell us More...Your Son is in College?
"If you are contemplating less than 30 coins ask for Jonathan Kosares at our small order desk (home for
the summer and learning the gold market)."


Leland (6/16/2000; 9:53:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 32470)
A "Non-Commercial" Coin Collectors Discussion Board...
http://www.collectitcorner.com/foruminformation.html
Just something for late night browsing...

USAGOLD (6/16/2000; 9:46:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 32469)
Uruguay 5 Peso Update.....and Reg Howe
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html
We are down to our last 500 Uruguay coins out of a 1300 coin allotment. Sales are strong.

You can order either on line (hit link above) or call us at 800-869-5115 to place your order.

If you are contemplating less than 30 coins ask for Jonathan Kosares at our small order desk (home for the summer and learning the gold market).

Larger orders ask for George Cooper.

Sorry to Reg Howe on the mispelling in the report below. Seems my spell checker has run amuck.

USAGOLD (6/16/2000; 9:46:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 32468)
Uruguay 5 Peso Update.....and Reg Howe
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html
We are down to our last 500 Uruguay coins out of a 1300 coin allotment. Sales are strong.

You can order either on line (hit link above) or call us at 800-869-5115 to place your order.

If you are contemplating less than 30 coins ask for Jonathan Kosares at our small order desk (home for the summer and learning the gold market).

Larger orders ask for George Cooper.

Sorry to Reg Howe on the mispelling in the report below. Seems my spell checker has run amuck.

USAGOLD (6/16/2000; 9:36:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 32467)
Today's Report: The Gold Market and Critical Mass
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html TO RECEIVE A FREE COPY OF OUR NEWSLETTER
6/16/00 Indications
 Current
 Change
Gold August Comex
292.60
+0.50
Silver July Comex
5.08
nc
30 Yr TBond Sept CBOT
97~20
+0~16
Dollar Index June NYBOT
106.15
-0.38




Market Report 6/16/00): Gold inched higher this morning clawing its way above the seemingly
impregnable $290 mark. There was an interesting quote in the FWN London report this morning:
"People are basically just biding their time," said one dealer,"and waiting for the U.S. boys to
come in and sell it off and take weekend profits." Take profits? How about "short it into the
ground?" Since that is precisely what a couple of the big Wall Street houses -- the "boys" -- have
been trying to do over the past week. If the "boys" were really interested in taking a profit, they
would have to be buyers to cover their enormous short positions (a state of affairs of which
everyone in the gold business is well aware if they take the time to read the commitment of traders
reports).

However, gold has been stubborn lately refusing to go down -- more stubborn than usual
therefore there isn't much in the way of profits to be taken. The perennial question arises: Why are
the Morgan Stanley and the Goldman Sachs of the financial world so interested in keeping the
price of gold down? What is it about a rising gold price that frightens them so? Why do they work
so hard at it through an exponential increase in their derivative commitments?

Rag Howe of the Golden Sextant has done yeoman work in answering those questions and in the
process exposing the precarious position in which the "boys" find themselves. The following is
taken from an extraordinary article recently published in our Gilded Opinion section:

"In a perfectly prudent world, the net short physical position would roughly correspond with the
net short gold derivatives position. However, in the absence of such a world, the net short gold
derivatives position tends to be larger than the net short physical position. This phenomenon
results because while part of the gold derivatives position may be hedged in the physical market
or reliable substitutes, other parts may be hedged in less reliable forms of paper gold or even
unhedged, such as naked calls.

As discussed in an earlier commentary, writing naked call options can be a very effective means
of adding gold to the derivatives market, thereby putting downward pressure on the gold price.
Of course, writing naked calls is also a very risky activity. But it demonstrates a key point: the
net short gold derivatives position is ultimately limited only by the prudence of the least
cautious players and, if applicable, the willingness of governments or other official agencies to
back them.

As summarized in tabular form in the prior commentary, the recent figures from the BIAS on
the total size of the gold derivatives market are important because they suggest: (1) that the
central banks may have loaned much more gold into the market than previously thought; and/or
(2) that the net short gold derivative position is far larger than suspected or than anyone would
deem prudent. . .

At the end of 1999, the BIAS put the total notional amount of gold derivatives at US$243
billion, up from $189 billion at the end of June. Converting the year-end notional amount to
tonnes at the year-end gold price ($290/of.) gives just over 26,000 tonnes. Using a $300 gold
price gives around 25,200 tonnes. However, these 1999 figures are for major banks and dealers
with their head offices in the G-10 countries only.

On a more irregular basis, the BIAS collects similar information for as close to the whole world
as it can. Its last larger survey as of the end of June 1998 showed a total global figure for gold
derivatives of $228 billion compared to a G-10 figure on the same date of $193 billion,
indicating that at that time there was an additional $35 billion (or 3629 tonnes @ $300/of.) in
gold derivatives outside banks and dealers headquartered in G-10 countries. Accordingly,
assuming a continuing difference of around the same magnitude, the total global gold derivatives
market is on the order of 26,000 to 28,000 tonnes, more than twice the higher estimates of the
net short physical position, and almost as large as the stated gold reserves of all the world's
central banks put together."

End quote.

I have been asked many times under what circumstances I envision the implosion/explosion
(depending on your viewpoint) mentioned in my earlier commentary. Some ask: What would keep
the "boys" from playing this derivatives' game forever? I'll try to get to the point quickly here
without a great deal of front matter. Some of you have read my prior writings about the transition
in the markets because of the advent of the derivative from a Newtonian viewpoint to one closer to
the revelations of Albert Einstein. In Newtonian economics we dealt with simple principles -- what
goes up must come down; for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction, etc. We lived
by these for most of the 20th Century. But things have changed mostly due to the introduction and
use of complex derivative trading programs. In Einsteinian economics we are dealing with critical
mass and a one time, major and comprehensive reaction in which the destruction is fast and
complete. To create critical mass and a nuclear chain reaction, you bombard an atom's nucleus
with particles until the nucleus can no longer accept another particle. An horrific explosion occurs
as we first learned at Alamgordo in 1944.

Now apply those principles to the derivatized gold market and you get the picture. A clue to how
close we are to that day of reckoning -- that day of critical mass -- came recently when George
Soros shut down the Quantum Fund and Janus Funds turned back new contributions to their
flagship funds, because the funds had become too big to manage. In both cases, fund managers
resigned because they could find no one to sell their positions to. The managers complained that
whenever they went to sell a position, everyone "saw them coming" and dropped their bids. In
effect for those managers, critical mass had been achieved. All that remained was the core
meltdown an event for which they didn't want to take responsibility. Those who question when
and how the derivative players might meet their demise might learn from the above- mentioned
situations, as well as the depth of the gold derivative position as outlined by Mr. Howe.

Meanwhile, the public internationally, and at least one major central bank (China's) continue
buying the cheap physical gold price and taking advantage of what Wall Street has wrought. I have
come to the conclusion that gold will rise in fits and starts indicative of the dollar decay running
underneath the international monetary system that anyone with the most fundamental grasp of
monetary economics can readily see. However, we will not get the explosion in price everyone is
looking for until the system itself begins to break down (critical mass is achieved) -- a day toward
which the gold market creeps ever closer each day.

When that time comes, gold will achieve numbers that only a few thought possible. In the interim,
we continue to advise accumulating the physical metal quietly and comfortably -- not so much to
cash in the big nominal profits that would accrue, but as the ultimate insurance policy against the
money-printing disease which afflicts nearly every economy in the free world, and the potential
breakdown of the derivatives' trading network to which the international financial markets have
perilously attached themselves.

That's it for today. We'll see you back here Monday. Have a good day, fellow goldmeisters.

Leland (6/16/2000; 9:26:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 32466)
How the OOPS Might Have Happened...From Kitco
Date: Fri Jun 16 2000 11:23
spenser (Hey Hogan....I saw a picture of the coin with the Washington quarter)
ID#286163:
head and the Sacagawea reverse. Probably intentionally made in the mint as a prank.
There is a history of this happening with other coins. There is no way two different dies
from different coin types will fit in the same press; the shafts are different on purpose to
prevent this. It's possible that a quarter ( already minted ) was accidentally fed into a
Sacagawea press, but then you'd see images from both coins overlaying each other on
both sides, which I didn't see in the picture. The mint may try to confiscate this as they
have done with other "escapees" in the past.

Leland (6/16/2000; 9:07:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 32465)
OOPS!
$100,000 gold coin mistake



Associated Press

It looks as if George Washington might be a little jealous of all the attention
Sacagawea is receiving on the new one-dollar coin.

One of the golden dollars, which are struck at the U.S. Mint in Philadelphia, has turned up in circulation
with the front of a Washington quarter and the back of a Sacagawea dollar. It is believed to mark the first
error of its kind in the Mint's 208-year history - and the coin could fetch as much as $100,000.

"It's ironic when you think that the U.S. Mint spent $40 million on an ad campaign about how George
Washington is happy he's not on the dollar coin," Beth Deisher, editor of Coin World magazine, said
yesterday. "There's at least one out there that he's on."

It is unknown whether the coin is unique or if others could be in circulation. Michael White, a spokesman
for the U.S. Mint, did not return a call seeking comment.

"The fun part is that now we're essentially on a national treasure hunt," Deisher said. "If you've found a
golden George, you've hit the jackpot."

The error is known by collectors as a "double-denomination mule error" - two different currencies
stamped once on each side. All other known double-denomination coin mistakes fall in the category of
"typical error," which happens when a coin is struck a second time by stamps of a different denomination.

Coin World, published in Sidney, Ohio, broke the story on its Web site Wednesday.

The coin, discovered by an Arkansas man who wants to remain anonymous, was authenticated by the
Numismatic Guaranty Corp. of America, a coin-grading service. The man, who is not a coin collector,
found the piece in an uncirculated roll of golden dollars purchased from the First National Bank & Trust in
Mountain Home, Ark.

Bowers and Merena, a Wolfeboro, N.H., coin dealer, will auction the coin during the American
Numismatic Association's national convention in Philadelphia from Aug. 9-12. The exact date of the
auction has not yet been determined.

"There are many different kinds of errors that are attractive to collectors but this particular error could
likely be unique," said Christine Karstedt, Bowers and Merena vice president. "It also happens to be on
two of the most popular coins to date, which makes it a very interesting find."

Karstedt declined to speculate on what the coin could be worth, adding that it depends on whether others
are discovered.

It is uncertain whether the Mint was aware of the error and was able to catch most of the coins before
they went into circulation, or if officials had no idea the mistake occurred. If the former is true, the
number of error coins likely would be small - making the find worth $100,000 or more, Deisher said.

(Fair Use For Educational/Research Purposes Only.)

Al Fulchino (6/16/2000; 8:55:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 32464)
NH/New England Posters
Anyone up for a cookout? I live in Southern NH. Bring gold... :)

Quixotic1 (6/16/2000; 8:33:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 32463)
Panning for placer in NH...
Lamprey_65,

Be sure to try the Baker River on the northeast side of Rt. 25, also Jeffers Brook in Benton. The fishing & hunting in that area is great as well. The State runs a fishery on Rt. 25 that's worth stopping in for a visit. It's 81 already in Concord. Enjoy the weekend, anywhere except in Laconia.

Gold for the good guy...Gary


MO VER MEG (6/16/2000; 8:21:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 32462)
Black Blade
Good Morning Black Blade.

MO VER MEG represents my initials MO (Mike O'Connor) and VER MEG my home town (Vermillion, SD).

Vermillion is a small university town along side the Missouri River in South Dakota.

Thanks for asking.

Leigh (6/16/2000; 7:58:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 32461)
lamprey_65
Your story about Al Gore just goes to show that he can't tell what is true from what is fake!

Usul (6/16/2000; 7:18:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 32460)
Correction - Conquistadors Link
http://skyview.cache.k12.ut.us/aphistory/smith/unit1a.html


Usul (6/16/2000; 7:15:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 32459)
The Four G's
http://www.uchastings.edu/clq/maltradf.html
"Why did the conquistadors seek to eliminate the underpinnings of existing American civilizations? How was this destruction accomplished?

1. Conquistadors = exploit gold and silver and get rich.

1. Four G's = Gold, Glory, Gold and Guns- Spanish- looked at America as a source of wealth..."

Sir HBM:

Here is a quote for your wall:

"Der größte Unsinn, den man in den besetzen Ostgebieten machen könnte, sei der, den unterworfenen Völkern Waffen zu geben. Die Geschicte lehre, daß alle Herrenvölker untergegangen seien, nachdem sie den von ihnen unterworfenen Volkern Waffen bewilligt hatten."

"The most foolish mistake we could possibly make would be to permit the conquered Eastern peoples to have arms. History teaches that all conquerors who have allowed their subject races to carry arms have prepared their own downfall by doing so."

From http://www.jpfo.org/

Adolf Hitler (1889-1945), April 11, 1942, quoted in Hitlers Tischegesprache Im Fuhrerhauptquartier 1941-1942. [Hitler's Table-Talk at the Fuhrer's Headquarters 1941-1942], Dr. Henry Picker, ed. (Athenaum-Verlag, Bonn, 1951)

Of course, you should check out that reference.

The other quote appears to be a hoax, see:
http://www.urbanlegends.com/politics/hitler_gun_control.html
http://www.magma.ca/~asd/cfd-faq6.html
http://www.guncite.com/gcbogus.html

More quotes:
http://thebaynet.com/baytalk/second_amendment_quotes_page1.htm
http://www.duke.edu/~gnsmith/rkbaq4.htm
http://www.guncite.com/gcnazimyth.html

"It is scarcely surprising, therefore, that the wild rejoicing that greeted Charles II upon his return to London in May, 1660 failed to disguise from the King the precariousness of his position. He was painfully aware that many of these same citizens had gathered for his father's execution eleven years earlier and that despite its obedient professions, Parliament had never been at "so high a pitch," for "the power which brought in may cast out, if the power and interest be not removed." A study sent to his Court recommended the removal of that power. The anonymous author argued that no prince could be safe "where Lords and Commons are capable of revolt," hence it was essential to disarm the populace and establish a professional army. "It is not the splendor of precious stones and gold, that makes Ennemies submit," he observed, "but the force of armes. The strength of title, and the bare interest of possession will not now defend, the stres will not lye there, the sword is the thing."

http://www.uchastings.edu/clq/maltradf.html


lamprey_65 (6/16/2000; 7:03:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 32458)
Overheard on NPR this morning...
Al Gore on the campaign trail, speaking with a young boy:

"Did you get one of those new gold dollars for that tooth?"...

I kid you not -- he said "gold", not "golden".

Why do I get the feeling the government is going to end up catching hell for their disingenuous marketing campaign for the new coin?

-----

Out to do some trout fishing/panning today...we're finally getting some sunshine up here in N.H.! Very few gold flakes in the North River, but I may have found some amethyst -- need to explore further.

Journeyman (6/16/2000; 6:59:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 32457)
Oil prices

For what it's worth -- one interviewed "expert" oil anylist on CNBC a day or two ago (sorry, I didn't make any notes so you'll have to trust my memory -- or not) said that because of production concerns, etc. there would be pressure on oil prices through summer and fall. He suggested twice that the price, as a result of these pressures, would go to $40/bbl.

Regards, J.

lamprey_65 (6/16/2000; 6:56:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 32456)
L.Harrison
Much thanks on the gold content on the coin...that's the one!

Black Blade (6/16/2000; 6:54:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 32455)
Morning Wakeup Call! Appended - Pd supply is going to getter tighter!
Source: Financial Times
UK: PALLADIUM AM FIX HIGHEST SINCE
MARCH 21.16 Jun 2000 10:27GMT

LONDON, June 16 (Reuters) - Palladium prices were boosted on Friday to fix at $682.00 an ounce at the morning fix, the highest fix since March 21 this year. Traders cited recent reports that Russia's state reserve, Gokhran, had denied a foreign media report that it had bought a large amount of palladium from the central bank of Russia. Interfax said Gokhran deputy head Vladimir Rybkin said no such deal had been carried out. But it said he declined to specify whether the Finance Ministry, of which Gokhran is a part, planned to buy palladium from the central bank in future. By 0855 GMT spot palladium was up at $677/$687 from New York's Thursday close at $665/$675 and seen capped at $695 or $700. PGMs prices have been steadily rising since late May when Gokhran told Interfax it would not export any platinum, palladium or rhodium this year. Russia supplies about two-thirds of the world's palladium and one-fifth of the world's platinum. Its palladium reaches world markets through Gokhran, the central bank and metals giant Norilsk Nickel . All palladium is exported through state company Almazyuvelirexport based on quotas approved by presidential decree.

Black Blade: I said it before, I'll say it again. Can't sell what ya ain't got! PGMs are set to take off sharply, and it's going to get ugly.


Journeyman (6/16/2000; 6:48:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 32454)
Re: OPEC meetings @Black Blade, Topaz

- ~"The Saudi and Mexican oil ministers are meeting secretly in Amsterdam. They've been seen together by eye-witnesses, so I guess it's not so secret." -Ron Insanna, CNBC, 14-Jun-00, 3:02:43 PM

Regards J.


Black Blade (6/16/2000; 6:41:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 32453)
Morning Wakeup Call! Expiry Today - A Battle Royale shaping up today?
Sources: Various
Asia Precious Metals Review: Gold fluctuates in thin trade

Hong Kong--June 16--The price of spot gold fluctuated in thin trading in Asia on Friday as many players could not decide on the price direction following the volatility during the past few days, dealers said. Japanese players sold spot platinum and palladium early in the morning but bought back later, they said. (Story .2200)

Black Blade: Ho Hum, but hey - look at Palladium, rising sharply the last 24 hours! Today is "Triple-Witching", expiry on options contracts today - looks like a fight to the finish to keep gold under $290.00 as far as the Investment houses are concerned, and to get it over as far as speculators are concerned. The gloves are off and could get messy this morning.

Black Blade: The following is a priceless gem of an interview from one very nervous and scared Andy Smith. After being "politely" shown the door at his last job, he now pops up at Mitsui. What a pathetic attempt to drive down the POG from a gold-bear. Shameless!

INTERVIEW-Gold needs sharp marketing or risks demand crisis
Sara Marani 06/15/00

LONDON, June 16 (Reuters) - Gold demand faces a risk of severe decline unless the sector, preferably led by central banks, embarks on a huge marketing campaign, leading industry analyst (recently fired and hired) Andy Smith said on Friday. In a special report, Smith said it was wrong to think that gold demand --especially in top consumer India -- was immune from the financial and spending choices which progress brings. These risks, along with the erroneous assumption that demand must rise with prosperity, were not factored into the gold price.

``It's a risk that's not in the price at all, but the risk is sufficient for the sell side to be worried,'' warned Smith, analyst at Mitsui Global Precious Metals in London. ``That includes central banks, who should pay the bulk of the marketing. They should be worried even if I'm only partly right,'' he told Reuters in an interview. In his research, Smith looked at all aspects of the gold market from the social and demographic to central bank sales and countries' financial statistics using new World Bank databases. ``The untouchable has been physical demand and the idea has been that the likes of India will always be there. Everyone is assuming physical demand is there and growing. But they're just not seeing the challenges gold demand will face.''

CHALLENGES LURKING NOT SO FAR AWAY

Smith said challenges to gold as a saving and as something to be consumed were signalled by data showing growth in net gold demand relative to annual world GDP growth. `The relationship between the stock market or insurance market and GDP growth is strong. But as GPD is growing, the real price of gold is falling, yet gold demand is falling too and that's not good,'' said Smith, an analyst for 13 years. ``All of this shows there is enough to worry about. As countries get richer, inflation falls, so the demand for inflation hedges falls too.'' Smith said competition for gold was kicking in.

Black Blade: Yep, demand is falling so much that there is a growing deficit between supply and demand. A projected short-fall of 900 tons minimum.

As per capita income grew, non-life insurance, life insurance, bank credit and stock markets all posed obstacles to gold demand. People were beginning to invest in these activities rather than in gold, and that was where marketing came into the equation. ``As people get richer there is more competition for spending their money and insurance is one such direct competitor to gold. Liberalisation is very much a double-edged sword and the challenges are starting sooner than many expect.'' The risk for market players was that they perceived there was no risk, he added.

INDIA -- WEDDED TO GOLD?

``We've taken so much for granted, that demand will be there (India).It's not the case,'' said Smith. ``If you think it's a straight line, you've got your head in the sand. It's messier than that and the supply side has some waking up to do.'' While India is widely considered a captive gold market, half of the country's gold demand is traditionally for weddings. ``People think the Indian market will always be there, they are the main growth hope as they get richer -- but I think those are just assumptions.'' Demographic and social changes meant the number of weddings in India was likely to decline, leading to a fall in dowries, which were predominantly gold.

Black Blade: Last time I checked, Indian culture was much the same as it had been for the last several hundred years, hmmmnnn…………., is this what they call a paradigm shift?

ACTION IS NEEDED NOW

Smith said the industry needed to undertake a major marketing campaign to ensure steady demand in future.

``Pre-emptive action is needed. Marketing expenditure will be several million (U.S.$), but central banks have already lost that amount by, say, the Duisenberg Agreement,'' he said, referring to a 1999 accord whereby 15 European central banks pledged to limit combined bullion sales to 400 tonnes a year over five years. ``In the early 90s the balance started to come right. Now it's not going to flip over but it will go into reverse,'' he warned. ``It doesn't matter if I'm right, the market's not going to wait. But because none of this has been thought of, just a small perception of risk should price this in now.'' He said a multi-year marketing programme led by the central banks would look like a serious commitment. ``They're in a fix and they don't have a window to escape through. They need to recognise the issue and in order to maintain the width of the window they need to spend.''

Black Blade: In a sense, I agree with this point. A marketing campaign is a good idea. I don't agree that the WA was a bad "approach" as Andy puts it. In a word - Pathetic!

Meanwhile, S&P Futures up +5.50, fair value +2.91 indicating a slightly higher open on Wall Street. Au is up nicely +1.80 at $291.30 (expiry today!), Ag up +$0.02 at $5.07, Pt up +$4.00 at $537, and Pd up +11.00 at $677.00. Eat your heart out Andy!

Mo Ver Meg: Thanks for your kind words yesterday. Interesting handle, what does it mean if you don't mind my asking?


SteveH (6/16/2000; 6:38:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 32452)
Topas and sharefin
www.kitco.com
repost:

Date: Fri Jun 16 2000 04:19
sharefin (Bullish - WHO's BULLISH????????????????????????????????????????) ID#284255:
-
How's this for bullish - $30,000 POG

http://csf.colorado.edu/forums/longwaves/jun00/bin00002.bin

Gold Market Waves

For fun, here are my time expectations for unfoldment of the gold market and analysis from many time periods measurements over 3 centuries of gold related events support this scenario with their individual measurements ( but this is a scenario and not a guarantee of course ) .

wave I wave II wave III wave IV wave V
Aug 30 Jan 21 Aug 25 Oct 5 May 25 Jul 3 Aug 25 Sep 5
1976 1980 1999 1999 2000 2000 2000 2000
21 x 59 days 1789 x 4 days 41 days 233 days 3 x 13 days 53 days 11 days
-----------------! ---------------! --------------! ---------------! --------------! --------------! ---------------!

5 x 23 x 73 days 377 days
-----------------------------------! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------!

144 days = 41 days + 103 days
-------------! ----------------------------------------------!

21 x 3 days
------------------------------!


There are 34 x 43 x 6 days total span in this analysis. Target prices ( with help from another source, since I haven't done price target work myself yet ) : Wave III $12,000, Wave V $30,000. Gold rallies are generally shorter than the correction periods - quite opposite of stocks. Assume that all govern