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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/16/1999 All times are U.S. Mountain Time View Yesterday's Discussion. TownCrier (11/16/99; 23:56:03MDT - Msg ID:19264) GOLDEN VIEW delayed by internet traffic... either too many people checking their portfolio's performance after today's outright dismissal of inflation, or else too much competition for a turn at the pulpit.Check back briefly...on the other side of midnight. Netking (11/16/99; 23:08:07MDT - Msg ID:19263) et St One El St One (19220) - Thanks for this I am working on it with all my ability, I need a new car, although that brand may attract a bit of attention in this part of the woods . . . might sell it & buy some yellow stuff off USAGold instead. beesting (11/16/99; 22:37:37MDT - Msg ID:19262) Sir,Caven Man #19254. Since you addressed your message to me I'll try to respond the best I can.Sir,I truly respect your opinions and beliefs,and would never try to change them in any way I would much rather avoid talking about controversial opinions and stick to the main topic listed at the top of this page.....GOLD!!! Thats what I'm here for,to try to get an education about Gold.May I quote from a recent USAGOLD post:USAGOLD 11/9/99 msg.#18737:It's when we get into protracted discussions that have nothing whatsoever to do with Gold and it begins to look like a promotion for......???The internet is a vast network of different'subjects,opinions,thoughts,ideas etc....This is simply a forum,as outlined in the guidelines,for the discussion of Gold and Gold related topics only!And to be absolutly honest with you Sir Caven Man, I am offended by totally religious posts that have nothing to do with Gold....but I have never said anything in the past. So having said that,I have enjoyed reading your posts in the past and wish you would reconsider your self imposed exile...and keep posting about Gold and Gold related subjects in the future....hope-fully your friend....beesting Bonedaddy (11/16/99; 22:30:57MDT - Msg ID:19261) This is great! Y2K about 40 days away! It will be a big deal...or not. If nothing much happens, the price of gold is a major long term gain due to inflation, which now appears entrenched. If there are enough Y2K disruptions to shake peoples faith in paper, gold is a major short term gain. Gold rises either way. Black Blade (11/16/99; 22:19:48MDT - Msg ID:19260) Hedged or Unhedged? " We don't need no stinkin' hedges" (or was that badges?) A lot of discussion on the other forum about hedged vs. unhedged miners. The debate centers around hedged Durban Roodeport (DROOY) and unhedged Harmony (HGMCY). There are others of course, but these two could serve as a proxy for all Au companies as a case study. It will be interesting to watch the performance of both as time goes on. The reason that both should work as proxies for such a study is their geographical location, similar mining methods, differing hedge book positions, etc. True, one should look at the structure of the hedge as well, however, this case should do well as a measure of investor sentiment. Does this "Tug-O-War" sound like a fair contest? Comments? BTW, both stocks are available as DSP's (Direct Stock Purchase) as well, through the same transfer agent. I would suspect a similar rough distribution among institutions and individual accounts. Perhaps a similar study between Barrick (ABX) and Newmont (NEM)? Bonedaddy (11/16/99; 22:01:31MDT - Msg ID:19259) Bad Religion or the "R" word I once heard religion described as man trying to reach out to God. But God has his own plan. The truth is that our religion doesn't mean squat to the Creator. Maybe that's why everybody has a "problem" with talking about religion. It's such a disappointment for us when God is too big to fit the elaborate stained glass molds we try to cast Him in. Yet how can we discuss history, without discussing the beliefs that drove people to do what they did? How many warriors have cried, KILL THE INFIDEL! In a broader scope, I have heard religion described as, "the thing which is of utmost importance" to a person. Using this definition everyone has a religion, even if it's investing. By this definition, if I understand your "religion", I'll better understand you. So, if we are to ban religion from the forum, let us do as Socrates advised and "define our terms." Shall we exclude only Jesus and the Prophets? Perhaps it would be easier if we just banned all talk of this Jesus who calls himself the Christ. You've got to admit, religion was pretty comfortable until He came along. Perhaps we really should nip this thing in the bud, before these men who have turned the world upside down come here also? But, this forum is really about idealogical freedom. If we ban talk of religion, how different are we from the government that bans talk of Gold? I for one, do not resent anyone elses beliefs, or hopes, or faith. And as for my beliefs, I'll simply live with them and face the consequences thereof. I have the luxury of knowing that I'm as wrong as hell about alot of things and there's a lot of freedom in knowing that. (must be why I believe in grace) I enjoy reading ALL of your opinions my dear friends. I may not agree with them or understand them, but I certainly do enjoy them. USA Gold is primarily a gold discussion forum. No harm in a little discussion of belief systems, but let's keep it largely on subject. Peace-- Bd! Aristotle (11/16/99; 21:55:13MDT - Msg ID:19258) Cavan Man--your (19:46:49MDT - Msg ID:19250) war statistics On the issue of Nomad's post to me in which he refered to a prevailing sentiment toward Americans--I sure didn't get the sence that Nomad himself disliked Americans. It seemed to me he was sharing a perception that isn't too difficult to verify if you ask around. Actually, you might even get the odd response that though some people might view Americans as spoiled, lazy brats, or overbearing bores, or outright bullies, some of them would probably readily admit they'd rather be here amongst us than wherever fate happened to land them; with an opportunity to try to carve out a living in the land of the big spenders and where money falls from the sky--scooped out the door of government airplanes, no doubt.Back to your war stats. Certainly no one should make light of such a sacrifice as those numbers reveal. Now, having said that, here's where we find ourselves--back then the dollar on the international scene was as good as Gold and Americans owned the most kissable cheeks on the planet. But the saying goes, What have you done for me lately? Particularly since 1971, Nomad's point reflects that sentiment regarding Americans has deteriorated along with the dollar--a dollar which has become as light as air for us, but a tremendous burden for others to bear.Gold. A better way to live for everyone attempting such madness without training wheels. ---Aristotle Black Blade (11/16/99; 21:53:42MDT - Msg ID:19257) Hey........it's only a movie.........maybe. Utilities, banks seek previews from NBC, gear up for surge in customer callsBy Kathleen Melymuka11/15/99 Sure it's only make-believe, but concerns raised by a forthcoming NBC movie about year 2000 are real. Y2K, scheduled to air on NBC Sunday night, is billed as a suspense thriller about a year 2000 troubleshooter trying, as the network bills it, to "save the world from catastrophic disaster" on New Year's Eve. But the film is causing headaches for a variety of industries. "A movie that exacerbates fears or plays to people's darker side will result in lots of money being spent by industries just protecting themselves," said John Castagna, a spokesman for the Edison Electric Institute, a Washington-based trade group for the electric power industry. Representatives of the energy and financial industries and state officials around the U.S. have asked to preview the film to see what issues it raises, but NBC has so far refused. "We were just hoping that we could be prepared to answer those questions that we think we are going to get asked," said Terrell Halaska, a spokeswoman for the National Governors' Association in Washington. President Clinton said in the government's Y2K wrap-up report last week that he expects "no major national breakdowns as a result of the year 2000 date change." But Hollywood's script includes a major power outage on the Eastern Seaboard, so some real-world power companies are gearing up in anticipation of customer response. At PECO Energy Co. in Philadelphia, Y2K project manager Mickey Galatola's call center will be ready after the film airs. "On 9/9/99, we weren't anticipating the calls we got," she said, "and we had to shift hours to make sure our phones were manned. As a result of that, we have decided to be staffed up for after the Y2K movie." Castagna said he fears that the film will inspire hackers and suggests that companies be on guard for security threats. But John Hall, a spokesman for the American Bankers Association, said he's confident that customers will be able to tell the difference between fact and fiction. Hall said he sees the movie as an opportunity to educate consumers. "Sometimes at the end of a TV movie there's a lead-in to the 11 o'clock news" commenting on the film, he says. "We'd like to be part of it." That's what the Chicago mayor's office is doing. Barrett Murphy, a director there, has arranged to work with the local NBC affiliate on a news tie-in immediately after the movie. "They want us to assist in calming public fears," Murphy says. "The tie-in will tell what we've done and how it's really going to be. We don't expect anything to go wrong." Black Blade (11/16/99; 21:31:12MDT - Msg ID:19256) Potential Y2K Problems? Nah...it's just maintenance...yeah, thats the ticket! Oil pipeline to shut down for Y2KExplorer Pipeline Co. said Monday it plans to idle its entire oil products pipeline system, which feeds the Midwest, for 20 hours starting New Year's Eve to guard against any unexpected Y2K incidents. The Houston-to-Chicago Explorer Pipeline, the second largest refined products pipeline in America and jointly owned by eight oil companies, can pump as much as 700,000 barrels per day of refined products like gasoline and distillates. -- Reuters Chris Powell (11/16/99; 21:11:31MDT - Msg ID:19255) Latest "Midas" commentary from GATA's Bill Murphy http://www.egroups.com/group/gata/285.html? Not much likely before end of year. Cavan Man (11/16/99; 20:44:37MDT - Msg ID:19254) beesting 19247 and all The golden stand is comprised of many threads. A few of these "threads" include:property rights, gun ownership, conceal and carry, equity valuations, real estate valuations, individual sovereignty, national sovereignty, freedom, confiscatory taxation, First Amendment, Second Amendment, Fifth Amendment, privacy, the size and scope of government, Judeo-Christian and Islamic doctrine and dogma etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.Why tear the "religion" thread from the strand? Are you offended by belief and faith? Are others offended by same?Let's see; prayer is forbidden in public schools and the US Supreme Court has just agreed to hear a case that involves the right of high school football teams to invoke a tream prayer before kickoff. Generally speaking, "religion" is under attack everywhere you look. Now, the subject is under attack here at this forum and I suppose many others as well.Let's leave the decision up to MK as final arbiter. After all, it is his nickel right? If you recall, I was offended by all of the Arch Crawford stuff and said so a couple of months ago. I voiced my opinion but I did not insist that any discussion of AC be banned. In fact, MK was gracious enough to recognize my objection in that month's newsletter. What a guy! Like I said; it is his nickel.I have always sincerely believed that I had nothing of substance to contribute to this forum and I have borne the corresponding guilt. Please do not take offense but your recent post has given me reason to finally take my leave. Therefore, I leave you and this wonderful venue with this quote:"Shine within our hearts loving Master, the pure light of Your divine knowledge and open the eyes of our minds that we may comprehend the message of Your Gospel. Instill in us also a reverence for Your blessed commandments, so that having conquered all sinful desires, we may pursue a spiritual life, thinking and doing all those things that are pleasing to you. For You, Christ our God, are the light of our souls and bodies, and to You we give glory together with Your Father who is without beginning and Your all holy and life giving Spirit, now and forever and unto ages of ages, Amen"Saint John Chrysostom THX-1138 (11/16/99; 20:30:30MDT - Msg ID:19253) Talked to my former boss yesterday. I had a real eye opening talk with my former boss yesterday.He is a government GS-13 engineer and makes about $60k. His wife is an engineer in a non-government company making $80k a year and stock options. I asked him if he had bought any gold. His comment was why should he by gold when he is looking for a return on his investment. Gold doesn't gain any interest.I asked him how would he get his hands on money quickly if he needed it. He said he has about 10% of his savings in a bank and 90% in the market. He could have his broker sell some stock and get the money in about 4 days, or he could just go to the bank.I then asked him if he even subscribed to the philosophy of having 10% of ones portfolio in gold. He said no.He was wondering why a man like me (mid 20's) didn't put his money in stocks. The interest gained in ten years would be astonomical. He still wonders why I invest in gold.Anyway, he asked me would I use my gold coin to buy a loaf of bread. I told him no, you don't use a gold to buy bread with.*What I should have said but didn't think about it at the time (not the quickest on witty come backs) was "no, you don't use a gold coin to buy the loaf of bread. You use the gold coin to buy the bakery." That's what I was meaning to tell him. Oh, well. Maybe next time. Trader_vic (11/16/99; 19:56:12MDT - Msg ID:19252) Farfel - Forget Technicians and Fundamental Analysis After today's FED action, I will agree with you that the stock market is on it's way to 12,000 before the end of the year and maybe even higher as the final blowoff occurs at which time the bubble will burst....It will burst from it's own wait...you see it takes money to make this market continually rise, and as the money that was on the sidelines comes back into the market, you will see it rise...but sooner rather than later, everybody puts 100% of their money into the market and then there is no more fuel for the market to go higher, so you get the "greater fool theory"...When there are no more buyers, then there are only sellers, just like Japan in 1989. This is very true with blowoff markets, especially when the little guy is carrying the market to its' top...You see, at these prices, it takes a lot of IMMEDIATE CASH to push the market to the top....If it were a sustained upward trend then the little guy would have time to find more money to add to the market as in mutual funds...but this is not that kind of market...this is a flash in the pan market where it's cash on the barrelhead that is demanded here...And as all markets go, IT WILL COLLAPSE FROM ITS' OWN WEIGHT....Now, as for gold, even though everone would like you to believe that the gov't and the BB Bankers are in control here, they aren't anymore and you should start to see that in the month of December as the December contracts stand to take delivery of gold that does not exist...this is where the real short squeeze will occur and the gold bull will rise from the ashes like a Pheonix to everyone's amazement!As was said earlier...keep your guard and watch, for you will not know the hour that I come....I am refering to both gold and Christ... Scrappy (11/16/99; 19:52:18MDT - Msg ID:19251) Can I third that motion? Aristotle, SteveH, Thank you. Cavan Man (11/16/99; 19:46:49MDT - Msg ID:19250) Nomad 19231 " on the other hand, if you would like to present some statistical evidence for the universal love and admiration the american government and its people evoke around the world, i would be happy to reconsider this particular point."I can provide some statistical evidence WHY there should be some acknowledgement of effective US international policy and why the world should not forget:US Casualties WWIDead-126,000Wounded-234,300Missing-4,526Source-The History of WWI by Susan EverettUS Casualties WWIIDead-407,318Wounded-671,801Missing-139,709Source-Grolier's Online JLV (11/16/99; 19:38:17MDT - Msg ID:19249) I second Beesting's motion! ! JLV (11/16/99; 19:31:09MDT - Msg ID:19248) SteveH Could be you are talking about 'Galloping Girdie' the bridge across the Tacoma Narrows in Washington State that oscillated to its death in high winds back in the Fourties.They show the newsreel now and then, of the collapse. Very famous film footage. beesting (11/16/99; 19:29:10MDT - Msg ID:19247) All Religious posts not pertaining to GOLD!!! I make a motion all Religious posts are deleted by USAGOLD before another religious war erupts, right here!!!Do I here a second......beesting canamami (11/16/99; 19:29:04MDT - Msg ID:19246) O.T. .....and then let's get back on topic In the branch of Christianity in which I was raised, the generally accepted position is that attempts to parse the Book of the Apocalypse to ascertain the date of the "end times" and the Second Coming are, for the most part, idle and sensationalistic speculation. In essence, assuming arguendo that Christianity is true, we all face our our own individual and irrevocable Final Judgement, which can happen in a nanosecond, even if the This World continues for millenia (as humans measure time). My understanding is that one's individual judgement should be a Christian's primary concern.To segue into the subject-matter of this Forum: Quaere why one would be concerned with a long-term store of value like gold if one believes the "end times" are soon upon us? However, given the likelihood that the end of the millienium will not be the "end of time", it may be possible that gold will regain its traditional role as a long term store of value, and thus it's arguable that holding some gold company shares and physical gold in a diversified investment portfolio is a good idea, to hedge against various contingencies and to pass on wealth to the next generation. (I'm probably excessively into gold shares, especially speculative shares.)MK is a generous and tolerant host, and gold ties into the broader reality of which faith, religion and - for believers - God play a central, and perhaps ultimately the sole important, role. That being said, this is primarily a gold site, frequented by adherents of various faiths, agnosticism and outright atheism. Perhaps we should respect out host's instructions to try and stay on topic, and not stray too far off topic, on too many occasions. beesting (11/16/99; 19:20:10MDT - Msg ID:19245) Red Hen # 19243 Coin Portfolio. If it were me in the same situation I would sell the coins only as needed, to pay off debts.Look at it as extra retirement income.You don't give your age but I would guess you are past your working years.Gold recently recovered from 20 year lows, so to show a 20% increase in value on your collection,is doing better than some.For me the future is unpredictable'so I keep a small amount of Gold close by in case of financial emergency in my family.Some here have said,use your Gold as insurance against financial failure in the future on a large scale. This seems like good advice.I'm sure you will get more input here if you ask for it.....Good Luck in whatever you decide......beesting Gold Power (11/16/99; 18:57:06MDT - Msg ID:19244) JCS and the fig tree JCS (11/16/99; 15:54:49MDT - Msg ID:19227) writes: "1. The parable of the fig tree, Matthew 25:32-34 "Learn a parable of the fig tree" ALL Bible scholars agree that the "fig tree" is Israel.It is actually Matthew 24. And I don't agree that ALL scholars agree the fig tree refers to Israel. Read what is being said. The allusion to the fig tree is a way of saying: "You understand things in the natural world, understand things in the spiritual world the same way."You have built an entire scenario out of this statement that is without warrant. You've made it up out of whole cloth. The "things" He wants you to understand the way you understand that when a fig tree puts forth its branches that summer is near, refers to earlier statements about the collapsing universe and the sign in the sky.These items refer to the destruction of Jerusalem in 70AD. Truly the generation being addressed that day would not pass until all had been fulfilled. And it didn't pass before then, either.JCS also writes: "when its branch is yet tender and putteth forth leaves". Israel became a Nation in May, 1948, therefore it became a "branch" again for the first time in 1900 years. In June 1967, the "tender branch" was involved in the Six Day War and gained four times its territory: Golan Heights, Sinai Pen., West Bank and Gaza strip. These are the "leaves" that the "branch" put forth. From that point, mark one generation, disputed as to either 40 years or 70 years. 1966 + 70 years = 2036. Verse 34 "This generation shall not pass til all these things be fulfilled." Which generation?"The generation that began with the 1967 war. So, within 37 years from Jan. 1, 2000, IMO humanity will see the fulfillment of this Biblical Prophecy."I think you have taken one unwarranted assumption, that the fig tree represents the modern Israel, and then have extrapolated and extrapolated on it, until you've built a sophistry, although a very formidable one. Nonetheless, I see no rhyme or reason behind attributing the particular historical events you assign to the various clauses of the sentence.JCS also writes: "3. Revelation 3:3 if we do NOT WATCH then He will come as a thief, "and thou shalt NOT KNOW what hour I will come upon thee." BUT IF WE DO WATCH, then we will know. I believe, in faith, that I KNOW it will happen, ALL OF IT, within the next 37 years."If it wasn't so serious and destructive, these teachings would almost be humorous. After the modern Israel was constituted in 1948, these things were all supposed to happen by 1972, seeing how a generation was about 24 years. When they didn't happen then, new reckoning had to be employed. The starting date had to be moved to 1967 and a generation had to be expanded to 70 years.Why this is so important in our society is that two generations of Christians have been raised to offer little resistance to the growing tyranny in our society. Hal Lindsey, one of the leading proponents of this doctrine, once asked the question: "Why polish brass on a sinking ship?"So, instead of confronting the evil and tyranny that confronts the society, a large percentage of people who believe like JCS does, have run from the battle, adopted a pietistic attitude that politics and life on earth has little meaning. This has allowed tyranny to triumph in great degree without much opposition.People must believe in the triumph of truth or face psychological destruction. This accounts for much of the nihilism in our society today. People see only hopelessness around them except for the stock market and materialism.Liberals, on the other hand, believe that man can be molded and manipulated like Pavlov's dog and if only all conservative, Christian opposition can be removed, they can produce the millennial kingdom through their social programs.Gold, as an absolute, stands in their way. Reality stands in their way. Truth stands in their way. Conservatives generally get out of their way. But there is hope yet. The inconstistencies of liberalism and humanism are self-defeating. And God maintains a remnant in every age for ultimate victory and the triumph of truth.Gold Power Red Hen (11/16/99; 18:44:07MDT - Msg ID:19243) Coin Portfolio I am a goldbug by nature and a longtime lurker at this extraordinary forum. I thank all of you for the education have you given me.A couple of years ago I traded in all my bullion for an investment grade rare coin portfolio. It has done well--- gained at least 20% in value. The rest of the collection will be auctioned off in early December and the plan was to sell my portfolio shortly after that. I have since been told it would be better to wait for the price of gold to rise, after the auction,to sell,otherwise I would be "leaving money on the table". This makes sense to me.I have however acquired debt in the last year, knowing I would pay it off after selling the portfolio. Since there are so many unknowns with y2k I am getting very nervous now and wondering if I should sell sooner rather than later. Will the banks be able to handle my check in Jan? And I just plain don't like not having two pieces of bullion to rub together. I would really appreciate your comments and opinions. Thankyou. SteveH (11/16/99; 18:43:59MDT - Msg ID:19242) Crescendo As spoken here before, events are happening at a maddening pace. Here are recent events that should be added to our list, that years before took years to see, now takes but days:-- IMF to revalue gold-- IR rate hike by Fed-- DOW and NASDAQ out of control in mania bubble-- Euro folks discussing role of Euro as international currency on same day of Fed IR hike-- Gold starting back up from $292-- Oil crosses $26.00 per barrell (20:1 ratio standard of gold to oil, hmmmm...)-- WTO with China-- GATA quiet-- Talk of Y2K closures starting and vacations cancelled-- Talk of MS stock options exceeding reasonableness-- LT bond yields cross 6.00% threshold while oil rises above $26/bbl-- and the crescendo increases in frequency and intensityWas Veranno? Straits Bridge the one that oscillated in the high wind until it fell down? SteveH (11/16/99; 18:27:23MDT - Msg ID:19241) Just trying to keep Oro's posts in one spot... www.kitco.com repost:Date: Tue Nov 16 1999 15:28ORO (@Rhody - settlement vs trade) ID#71231:Copyright © 1999 ORO/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedThe trading arena rolls lots of contracts and physical, however, at the end of the day only 1/4 of these are settled with a need for transfer of ownership or obligation. Of these settlements, only 1% - 10-15 tons of physical actually leave or arrive to settle an imbalance. That is the order of magnitude for deficits that could hurt the market. Fifty or one hundred tons missing for physical settlement in one day are all you need to cause disruption. Deliveries on loans are being made and roll overs don't require fresh lending. Most of the rollovers for the period were done during the panic. New lending, and borrowing are at a standstill. What action is hapenning is behind closed doors and off the public markets. Your thoughts? Data for Sep quarter should be available soon. Cavan Man (11/16/99; 18:25:33MDT - Msg ID:19240) Oh, and Nomad It is obvious to me you really dislike the US and all Americans. Too bad for you I believe. I have travelled a fair bit and I have only one profound observation to share with you and that is this; fundamentally, people are very much the same the world over. Moral righteousness; coming from an American? Surely you jest!Good luck to you and yours. Cavan Man (11/16/99; 18:19:46MDT - Msg ID:19239) Nomad Sir-I agree with you. You are missing my point I say with all due respect. There are a great many American citizens who are not pleased AT ALL with their government and who are concerned about the irrational exuberance of our collective lifestyles. I love this country but increasingly I feel deep shame for curent events involving the US. PS: Don't you forget please and I am reminding myself that this country has done a great service to the entire world in two global wars. Many of our people have willingly and unwillingly sacrificed their lives for people in foreign lands. Don't forget that sir. I shall not. elevator guy (11/16/99; 18:16:38MDT - Msg ID:19238) For Gold Power, whose noble + logical thought process I find admirable. Millenial Kingdom found in Rev 20:4, 20:6, and 20:7. SteveH (11/16/99; 18:15:05MDT - Msg ID:19237) and this just in from Vronsky www.gold-eagle.com repost:With Oil near $26 a barrel (vronsky) Nov 16, 17:42 it behooves us to read George S. Cole on Oil & Gold WILL SOARING PRICES FOR "BLACK GOLD" TRIGGER A FINANCIAL "BLACK HOLE" & SEND YELLOW GOLD SKYWARD?http://www.gold-eagle.com/crude_oil/black_holef.htmlsnippet--(by the way, they left gold out too. Is this some sort of conspiracy?)"The Saudi regime depends totally on the U.S. for its survival. Many years ago this regime reached an arrangement with the West to keep oil prices low in return for unlimited political and military support. That is why the Saudi government is so hated by the Arab "man in the street". But in 1996, low oil prices finally began to threatened the regime's internal base of support. Sensing this, the U.S. almost certainly gave the Saudis the green light last year to push oil prices substantially higher. The target price range of $15-$20 per barrel that prevailed for many years seems to have been replaced by a new target range of $20-$25 per barrel." elevator guy (11/16/99; 18:13:52MDT - Msg ID:19236) Thanks to all Knights and Knightesses who stand up for what they believe! Your courage to defend the Truth is only matched by your chivalry and mercy.A toast to ALL jousters!Cheers! SteveH (11/16/99; 18:10:29MDT - Msg ID:19235) and this just in from Vronsky www.gold-eagle.com repost:With Oil near $26 a barrel (vronsky) Nov 16, 17:42 it behooves us to read George S. Cole on Oil & Gold WILL SOARING PRICES FOR "BLACK GOLD" TRIGGER A FINANCIAL "BLACK HOLE" & SEND YELLOW GOLD SKYWARD?http://www.gold-eagle.com/crude_oil/black_holef.html"Black Gold and Yellow Gold"http://www.gold-eagle.com/crude_oil/black_goldf.html Crude oil chart http://www.fyii.net/cgi-local/chartgen.pl?cl.wCude Oil Resourceshttp://www.gold-eagle.com/crude_oilf.html SteveH (11/16/99; 18:07:27MDT - Msg ID:19234) El St.One Dow won't have a price on Dec 31, 1999 as, I believe but have no fore-knowledge, that owing to Y2K, the markets will be closed for up to two weeks before and after 01,01,00. My guess is this is a contigency awaiting a suprise introduction. Crude is now $26.11 (incredible!) No body is watching oil but celebrating their predictive powers of federal reserve action. Farfel (11/16/99; 17:47:50MDT - Msg ID:19233) Forget Technicians and Fundamental Analysis As per my early morning post, I very accurately predicted the huge stock market gain today. It will continue indefinitely, and by end of December the DOW will easily surpass 12,000. It is not even subject to debate. There is no constraint to the crowd mania any longer. The government aids and facilitates the mania, and refuses to allow the return of any genuine risk into the markets. There are no more downside surprises, they are not allowed.It is an amazing phenomenon to watch. However, owing to the constant intervention of "bubble-assisting" devices (e.g., repeal of the Glass Steagel Act; inclusion of hi tech favorites (like Microsoft and Intel) into the DOW index; leasing of Kuwaiti gold to prevent bullion banks from panic covering gold shorts, etc., etc., then there is truly little to no downside in favorite Dow/Nasdaq equities todayConversely, gold is most likely capped for the rest of the year and the government will pull every trick in the book to ensure it never exceeds its current 290-300 range prior to y2k. Gold is probably dead in the water until the government gets the country past y2k.So, forget the technicians, the APH's and their ilk, they know not what they speak. Forget the fundamental gurus, their pronouncements are immaterial. Just ask the taxi driver or the newspaper boy what he thinks about stocks and you will get a much more "enlightened" picture about future stock movements than any stock market analyst can hope to provide.The bubble is now getting into full gear and the maniacal crowd will take general equities to heights never imagined within a short time.ThanksF* Aristotle (11/16/99; 17:10:41MDT - Msg ID:19232) Nomad, thanks for the additional thoughts. Here are some more right back atcha You offered "in any case, you had an astute observation about the fact that the owners of gold would have a vested interest in the stability of the current system, which i agree with in principle."Yes, and lest's make sure that people realize "the system" we are talking about is the one in which much of their Gold is out making the rounds, or yet to be delivered. But as you said, much could be still safely tucked away in vaults--in which case the entire Gold and Gold-derivative financial structure could be allowed to collapse in complete ruin (and the dollar with it) without so much as a rumpled lapel. My guess is that of the Gold that was physically available for delivery at the time of purchace, more Gold than not is indeed closely held (stand by for the ensuing meringue pie in the face) rather than physically out on loan to others. However, my sense is that even more Gold than that is still in limbo--bought but yet to be mined. This exposure to the "system" ensures a desire and efforts toward a coninued viability and stabilty of the system. That is not to say, however, that "the system" is part and parcel with ever-falling Gold prices. On the contrary, I can see all to easily the incentive to turn this around so that Gold will become the primary global reserve asset, and--barring the temporary periods in which a goverment's monetary policy might permit a painful deflation of its national currency--on the whole, the price of Gold (in terms of all currencies) will ever be increasing. Here's the best part for those who have Gold before the fundamental shift occurs between the old (dollar dominated) and new (Gold dominated) financial systems: Gold will receive a very large initial upward revaluation that reflects the importance of its new status. Similarly, the dollar will take an initial dump in valuation that reflects it being swept out of the many international vaults and thrown to the dogs and chickens for bedding. After that point, Gold will alway be seen as the stable hub of the financial scene, and national currencies will seek their own level of value based on their demand for use (both international and domestic) and the competence with which the nation conducts its monetary and fiscal policies.Aragorn has often said this is not the Gold standard of your fathers--also saying that with fractional reserve lending such a standard was immediately rendered next to meaningless anyway (except for the ability to pick up the pieces after a deflationary collapse). Also, FOA has made it clear that the conveniences of modern currency are here to stay. I don't think anyone should make the mistake of saying that the euro, for example, is 15% Gold backed (or more appropriately, 30% when you factor in the total ESCB's reserves.) Reserves, after all, are just a tiny fraction of the circulating or on-account money supply. For these reseves to be comprised of X% Gold is hardly equivalent to saying the outstanding currency is X% backed by Gold. Think about this: if the central bank were to sweep all of the international paper into the streets, all that would be left in reserves is Gold. Would we then say that the national currency is 100% backed by Gold? Well, I guess we could if we wanted to take liberties with the conventional meaning of the phrase. Where Aragorn's and FOA's points come together is that the "new Gold standard" is better thought of as a new financial architecture which will employ Gold as an international reserve asset, par excellence. No single country is thereby given an exorbitant privilege--the ability to issue the reserve currency. In similar effect, Gold will continue to play an important role in the lives of the world's citizens who want a form of savings that is immune to the ravages of their local currency at the hands of a possibly incompetent governing regime.This is not to say that nations won't hold other national currencies. They certainly will. International trade will ensure it. Have you ever vacationed across national boarders? At any given time you could probably be found with several national currencies intermixed in your wallet. The need for use in trade will dictate the quantity and locations that each currency may be found. If we allow ourselves to follow this following comment to the most probably and logical end, it should become ever more apparent that what I've poorly attempted to describe is how things may unfold. As highlighted recently for our attention by Sir WilloT.W., these comments were made by Eugenio Domingo Solans, a member of the Governing Council and Executive Board of the European Central Bank:"Taking the current situation as a starting point, the Eurosystem's position concerning the future international role of the euro is crystal clear: we shall not adopt a belligerent stance in order to force the use of the euro upon the world economy. We are convinced that the use of the euro as an international currency will come about anyway. It will happen spontaneously, slowly but inexorably, without any impulses other than those based on free will and the decisions of market participants, without any logic other than that of the market. In other words, the internationalisation of the euro is not a policy objective of the Eurosystem; it will neither be fostered nor hindered by us. The development of the euro as an international currency will be a market-driven process, a free process."Relative to each other, many other national currencies have probably already attained a relative level of exchange valuation that is not too far from what these same natural market forces would dictate based on need for the currencies' use in foreign and domestic commerse. Only the dollar stands unnaturally high on a pedestal due to its use as a reserve currency. This lingering reserve status was maintained beyond the 1971 convertability default through simple inertia from the Bretton Woods years whereby everything was pegged to Gold through the dollar under the failing eye of the IMF. To the temporary (28 years so far) good fortune of Americans, it simply continued to be used for the international settlement of some important assets--Gold and oil. End the privilege, and suddenly the world becomes a level playing field. If you are competent and productive, could you ask for anything more? You'll certainly sell more products in Indonesia or Mexico if the common laborer's savings isn't continually vaporized by bad monitary policy brought about in part by the crushing legacy of unserviceable dollar-denominated debt.Gold. The officially-sponsored salvation for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries. It will help you, too. ---Aristotle Nomad (11/16/99; 16:42:56MDT - Msg ID:19231) @ Cavan Man here is the particular quote in question:'everyone loves to see a bully cut down to size, and i think the willingness of the current administration to use not only economic blackmail but actual military force around the world at the proverbial drop of a hat has done nothing to decrease the sense of frustration that many people have with the obnoxiousness of Americans and American political posturing in general.'with all due respect sir, i do not consider it sub-intellectual' to comment on what is an obvious truism. on the other hand, if you would like to present some statistical evidence for the universal love and admiration the american government and it's people evoke around the world, i would be happy to reconsider this particular point. however, i should remind you that there certainly is plenty of evidence for the opposing viewpoint (ask a somalian, haitian or serbian citizen ... or for that matter witness the 10 fold increase in negative opinions of america and american citizens among the russian people, not to mention the citizens of various muslim countries that were the target of the original post).to re-clarify : Aristotle has a number of excellent posts regarding the probable accumulation of gold for oil over the last twenty years that constitute the bulk of OPEC's existence. my contention is simply that i consider this to be a highly likely series of events, and that this 'stockpile' of physical gold, much like our own individual 'stockpiles' of physical gold will catapult these Middle Eastern oil powers into global leaders in the event of a US a severe dollar/stock market crash which leads to the radical revaluation of gold ($30,000/ounce), while at the same time crushing those countries which have not had the foresight to purchase gold in any quantity (Japan) or are reputed to have given/sold most or all of their gold reserves (USA / Britain).i simply want to learn the truth so that i and those who rely on me can be better prepared for the future. however, in the meantime, i believe it might serve you well to toneyour level of moral righteousness a bit.many kind regards in return :) CoBra(too) (11/16/99; 16:14:02MDT - Msg ID:19230) A piece of cake! - for equities ... (Sacher Torte), of course with 1/4 whipped cream escalates the guy's appetite.The widely expected 1/4% hike by FOMC, accompanied by a neutral bias is going to be construed as more fuel to the bubble (or to express it in an elevated guy's terms Sacher Torte and whipped cream on top is going a long way to saturate the new paradigm apostles-at least for some more -borrowed?- time!). My take, though I didn't think any other outcome was feasible anyway; Officialdom has long lost control of governing sound markets - is it the currency, equity, bond- or credit and lastly derivative dis-equilibriums, being rapidly blown out of proportion on the basis of unrestricted Fiat-$ (debt) creation by the sole virtue of dollarization on the principle of globalization on free trade standards under the $-(and military regime? -see global cops..)terms only. WTO membership is now effectively open to the last 1/5 of the worlds population, though some feel this is a new playing field for tomorrows consumers - right, they might consume the new IT- and financial- paradigm of the West with their industrious chop sticks ... and come right back to devour the last productive base of the West, since seemingly we don't need production any longer.The fundamental disequilibrium of a one world economy based on a debt currency beneffiting only 5% of global population will have to - even if the pehenomenal technological advancement is taken into account - eventually fail, since too many victims of the system testify to its inadequacy. As Aristotle contemplated in his latest post (abbreviated) it is the system of the US $ (hegemony-and I may add "international" institutions as IMF, World Bank et al") causing misery to much of the world at large, due to their historical and political correct view's(- as in todays $-powerhouse will prevail-). - And every new technocrat will gladly testify to the fact that modern economies are "measured" by their achievements in terms of GDP, productivity, R&D and of course, RoI or RoE. Well, I'd be happy with this kind of stipulation if globalization would use a common "global yardstick" to measure the contributions of "Arbeitsteilung-division of labor" - unilaterally.OK - Ari et al - historically GOLD was and may well be again the only true measure of reality - be it technological, trade or even social advancements. blueboy (11/16/99; 16:03:28MDT - Msg ID:19229) Gold Power I would like to talk to you about some of the things you believe, but I don't have time now, I have to be in LA. tomorrow to preach a revival. I will let you know when I get back and maybe we could speak on the phone? I will give you my 800 # by e-mail?Blueboy JCS (11/16/99; 15:57:13MDT - Msg ID:19228) Gold Power (11/16/99; 15:35:00MDT - Msg ID:19225) CORRECTION: 1967 + 70 years = 2037.Sorry, I was going too fast.Have to hurry to a meeting.Sincerely,JCS JCS (11/16/99; 15:54:49MDT - Msg ID:19227) Gold Power (11/16/99; 15:35:00MDT - Msg ID:19225) 1. The parable of the fig tree, Matthew 25:32-34 "Learn a parable of the fig tree" ALL Bible scholars agree that the "fig tree" is Israel. "when its branch is yet tender and putteth forth leaves". Israel became a Nation in May, 1948, therefore it became a "branch" again for the first time in 1900 years. In June 1967, the "tender branch" was involved in the Six Day War and gained four times its territory: Golan Heights, Sinai Pen., West Bank and Gaza strip. These are the "leaves" that the "branch" put forth. From that point, mark one generation, disputed as to either 40 years or 70 years. 1966 + 70 years = 2036. Verse 34 "This generation shall not pass til all these things be fulfilled." Which generation?The generation that began with the 1967 war. So, within 37 years from Jan. 1, 2000, IMO humanity will see the fulfillment of this Biblical Prophecy.2. Luke 21:24, the "Times of the Gentiles" ended when Israel took Jerusalem in the Six Day War in 1967.3. Revelation 3:3 if we do NOT WATCH then He will come as a thief, "and thou shalt NOT KNOW what hour I will come upon thee." BUT IF WE DO WATCH, then we will know. I believe, in faith, that I KNOW it will happen, ALL OF IT, within the next 37 years.Sincerely,JCS Cavan Man (11/16/99; 15:37:58MDT - Msg ID:19226) Sir Nomad To broad brush all Americans and refer to them as obnoxious while perhaps tempting even for myself is, sub-intellectual. Furthermore, while I may "resemble that remark", in the words of the Three Stooges, I do not see any logic in labeling people. Labels are one more facet of the systemic "troubles" many of which appear insumountable in the world in which we all live. Kind regards....CM Gold Power (11/16/99; 15:35:00MDT - Msg ID:19225) JCS; elevator guy; premillenialism As long as everyone is getting equal time, here goes:JCS writes: "John, The Revelator, did not have a world view. He was imprisoned on the Isle of Patmos and knew very little about what was going on around him. Actually, he could have cared less, except that the Gospel of Jesus Christ be spread abroad. The writings of John did not depict the Roman Empire or the rulers of the day: it was prophetic to our day. John, Peter, Mark, James, Jude, Matthew, Luke, and the other disciples knew and understood the plan of God because for 40 days after His resurrection, Jesus "taught them about the things that were to come." We who searches the Scriptures also understands what the plan is and where the hands of the clock stand. I venture to say that ALL of the prophetic writings in both the Old and New Testaments will be fullfilled within 37 years from Jan. 1, 2000, so IMO, none of us will have to worry about 3900 AD."JCS, while I appreciate your fervor, I disagree with your perspective and it would pain me if people reading your words thought that your perspective is orthodox, mainstream, or even reasonable. First, I would say your idea that John didn't have a worldview is a projection of your lack of worldview onto him. I would say your pietistic worldview -- a belief that the material world is not important -- was not shared by John. I also believe his writings did depict the Roman Empire and the rulers of the day. These were the humanistic beasts that sought to impart the mark -- law system -- onto the population of the known world.I would also say that you have no reasonable basis to believe that all of the prophetic writings in the Bible will be fulfilled within 37 years. Neither do you have a reasonable basis to predict that the world will not see the year 3900AD. In fact, this directly contracts the words of the Lord Jesus Christ who said that no man knows the day nor the hour when He will return to earth.If you believe you do have a reasonable basis for this assertion, I would be interested in hearing it.Elevator Guy writes: "The Book of Revelation is about end times prophecies that have not been fufilled yet. The notion of a first century fufillment is an error, and to hold to this belief you must totally ignore some very clear, plain statements. For example, Revelation says that the Messiah, (Jesus Christ), will rule on the earth for 1000 years, (what is called the Millenial Kingdom) For you Old Covenant fans, this is the fufillment of the priophecy that the Messiah would sit on the throne of David, as an earthly king, with power and authority over His subjects. Jesus has not yet sat on the throne of David. This is easy to see, because when at any time did Jesus ever have any earthly political power, in the devotion of all His people? No, rather He came humbly, was rejected, and died a criminals death for no fault of His own, but to redeem us from our sins. And as described in the New Testament, His earthly reign on the throne of David, as an earthly king, is to be for a thousand years. Has anyone seen the Messiah reign for 1000 years? Nope, this has not happened yet. So either the Revelation is not true at all, or it has not happened yet."Elevator Guy, I would take issue with much of this. I think your arguments against Revelation speaking about first century events are erroneous. First, I would like to see you make a case that Messiah must rule on earth for 1000 years. Although David's reign was earthly, Messiah's reign and kingdom is heavenly. He sits on David's throne today.Elevator Guy also writes: "It means what it says, and what it says has not happened yet, so it is unreasonable to "spiritualize away" the prophecies of Revelation. Furthermore, at what time has any of us literally seen a "new heaven", and a "new earth"? Revealtion says these things are coming, but we have no record in history of any such events. This prophecy is yet to be revealed."Elevator Guy, I can't agree with much of what you say. I think it is unreasonable to exclusively interpret Revelation literally. It is to be interpreted just as all other Bible prophecies were fulfilled. And while much of Revelation has been fulfilled, the new heaven and the new earth is still to come, I'll agree.JCS writes: "(BTW, its not John's revelation. It's The Revelation of Jesus Christ which was given to John.)Look at current events: the European Common Market countries united with a single currency. Was that foretold? yes, in the Book of Daniel about 2600 years ago!!"JCS, I would like to see how you arrive at this conclusion. It would appear to me you are making linkages between divergent Bible passages that deserve no linkage. But I can't know you are doing that until you show some basis for your assertions.JCS also writes: "Where is all of this headed: to a single world government with a single world currency, probably with gold figured in somewhere. But by that time it won't matter because the economy of the world will be run by a computer controlled by one person (the computer is in Brussels!! And it is prepared to assign every person a number very much like our Social Security System does: three sets of numbers, each set having six digits, ie, 666.)"JCS, that's pretty wild stuff. Although a rebellious mankind has always sought a unified mankind to blunt the pain of his separation from God -- misery loves company -- there is no warrant to say he will be successful in this endeavor. No, God is determined to stop this from happening. That's why He divided the nations. That's why He divided the languages. That's why every attempt at global unity is destined to failure as happened to Nimrod, the Babylonians, Alexander the Great, the Roman Empire, the Communist Empire, and now the United Nations and the New World Order.With the announcement of the ECB concerning gold, the NWO is dead and you will hear of it no more.But I would love to see you make the case that the entire world is to be run by a computer controlled by one person in Brussels. That's really "out there."As for 666, when looking for what this means, let Scripture interpret Scripture. We see the imagery of putting something on one's head and palm in Deuteronomy. The law of God was to be placed in these places. 666, the mark of the beast, is a rival law to the law of God. The Beast wants his law to rule mankind, not the law of God. It is not a literal mark. It is the legal system of the United Nations, in our day and time. I would say that the International Declarations of Human Rights is as close to the mark of the Beast as anything in our era.Gold Power JCS (11/16/99; 15:27:50MDT - Msg ID:19224) Scrappy (11/16/99; 15:02:30MDT - Msg ID:19221) I wasn't offended.And, I appreciate your sensitivity. Believe me, I have had vile and violent things said to me as I witnessed about Christianity.Regards and good luck. Aristotle (11/16/99; 15:27:45MDT - Msg ID:19223) More on Bubbles--explained for the common man John Kenneth Galbraith was a noted economist from Canada who spent many years working for the American political establishment, getting a good (bad?) start as one of FDRoosevelt's New Dealer's. I don't agree with a fair share of his economic philosophies, but he was a fine writer and always a joy to read. Fot those who don't know, among many other books, he wrote a well known one called "The Great Crash" that documented the bursting of the 1929 American bubble. I another book I've recently read, JKG gave a brief synopsis of the speculation that precedes the bursting of the bubble. On a day like this, I'm sure he would be glad to know his words might yet reach beyond the grave to help someone avoid duplicating the errors of the masses. From a Journey Through Economic Time--JKGalbraith:"Speculation begins when a price is going up and the presumptively wise expect a further increase. They buy and thus produce the increase. More buy, and more and yet more are attracted. Each price increase affirms the good sense of those who have bought before. Those who doubt are reviled as creatures of defective imagination. The buying and the supporting mood continue until the available supply of mentally vulnerable, economically viable buyers is exhausted. Then come the changed view of the prospect, the rush to get out, the pressure now of creditors demanding repayment of the loans that financed purchase, thus forcing sale. In short, the crash."Other features are constant and have been over the centuries since the great tulip speculation in Holland in the seventeenth century. One is the seeming miracle of leverage. If money is borrowed with a fixed interest return to make an investment, all the gain from the increased price will accrue, and in multiple amount, to the borrower."It is also thought that those who, with leverage, are riding the boom are endowed with a fresh and pwersuasive genius. They and their financial acuity are the wonder of the time. After the crash the sad truth is revealed: they were vulnerable individuals caught by their own fantasy. "Finally there is the search, in which economists are known to participate in a cooperative way, to find some external reason for the bursting of the speculative bubble. It is almost never supposed that in a rational world the speculation contains the seeds of its own destruction; something else, some outside development or event, must have brought it to an end."JKG also offered a good characterization of the reason the Ponzi scheme will work for a time--an investment scheme in which the rich profits to the early investors are supplied by the following gulls. Galbraith said that Charles Ponzi's genius was "to see that the people who believe they are singled out to be rich are always available for fiscal suicide, however obvious its inevitability."People are no longer even attempting to rationalize stock prices on the underlying profitability fundamentals of the company. They are rushing in simply because each passing day in which they are not fully invested is somehow "costing them money." In truth, they are only missing out on the temporary paper gains of a speculative blowoff. I'm sure there were a few people who could read the road ahead in the twenties and cashed in their investments in 1927, and further, went to their bank and exchanged their bills for Gold coins, fearing an eventual bank run or currency crisis. (Bank runs were common back then.) I'm sure for the next two years they doubted their own counsel as they watched the stocks soar ever higher. Some of them probably even took their coins to a broker and spent them all on stock, thinking that they had been foolish and overly cautious for too long. Of those who stayed the course of prudence and sat on the sidelines throughout the remaining speculation, I wonder how many were kicking themselves for their caution after the crash, and after the bank runs, and after President Roosevelt made a mockery of the Constitution and fooled the citizens into turning in their Gold American money in 1933?Gold. Because you are wise enough to read the road ahead. ---Aristotle phaedrus (11/16/99; 15:10:48MDT - Msg ID:19222) Crude marches on A few minutes ago december crude broke through 26 bucks on the overnight market. Crude has only been above 26 dollars twice in the past Decade: Once briefly in the winter of 96/97, and once for about a six month period spanning Saddam's wacky highjinx in Kuwait and the ensuing gulf war.And prior to the gulf war crude hadn't seen $26 since January 1986. In otherwords, oil is screamin', folks. And this one horse town ain't big enough for both oil and bonds to strut their stuff at the same time. At least, not for long. Yet, hey: who cares about inflation when you can get 20% returns a month flipping Nasdaq stocks? Scrappy (11/16/99; 15:02:30MDT - Msg ID:19221) JCS Sir, I have no quarrel with your beliefs. The only point I was trying to make was that history has already happened, and is recorded, (through the Bible and other works). The Book of Revelations is prophecy-relevant only to those who believe it to be a source for what the future holds. My only point is that perhaps events that have already occured are a more universal source for this forum than a book of prophecy, which is relevant only to some of the paricipants. With all due respect, we are here to discuss gold, not God. Quite frankly, I don't believe God cares much for what goes on with gold, only what goes on with souls. love, the scrap.P.S. I am sorry if I upset you. That is not my intent. Understanding is. And being able to communicate with all Intelligent beings, regardless of their creed or lack thereof. love, the scrap. (I will say no more on this issue) el St.One (11/16/99; 15:00:23MDT - Msg ID:19220) Guessing contest http://www.etrade.com/ The above link and Oldsmobile have $1,000,000 Prize for guessing the exact close for the DJIA (Dow 30 stocks) year end. Dec 31 1999 A guess is a guess is a guess is a guess.Good guessing .............el Nomad (11/16/99; 14:49:07MDT - Msg ID:19219) @ Sir Aristotle very kind of you, Sir Aristotle to spend time with my questions. i sincerely appreciate it. to clarify, i just used a figure of about ten percent of what i believed to be total oil sales over the last 20 years to come up with the 1 billion ounce figure. probably off by a quite a bit.in any case, you had an astute observation about the fact that the owners of gold would have a vested interest in the stability of the current system, which i agree with in principle. however, i think that it could be argued that participation in the 'paper' gold market does not mean that the actual 'physical' gold that Middle East powers may have purchased need ever leave their bank vaults. thus, just like most of us purchase physical gold coins as the ultimate defense against financial ruin, while perhaps speculating in gold stocks or commodity derivatives, those Middle East powers (banks/governments) may play in the paper market, while still retaining their vast physical reserves. and while i agree that these powers have a vested interest in supporting the current system, i do not think any powerful entity, be it government, bank or hedge fund, hesitates to step in to exploit the weaknesses of their opponents/enemies should the opportunity arise (i don't remember too many posts feeling sorry for the big boys when the POG rose last month :). AND, it is my belief that Y2K will provide just such an opportunity for many individuals and organizations. afterall, why is that each and everyone of us has purchased gold, if not to protect ourselves from the huge economic changes we forsee occurring in the current system, most likely occurring in the very near future.as for my idea of 'power', i think i was using it in the generic sense with the understanding that many in the arabic world (and other cultures as well) view the good old US of A as an obnoxious bull in the china shop. everyone loves to see a bully cut down to size, and i think the willingness of the current administration to use not only economic blackmail but actual military force around the world at the proverbial drop of a hat has done nothing to decrease the sense of frustration that many people have with the obnoxiousness of Americans and American political posturing in general.as for the consequences of such a quantum shift, think of the roles of say, saudi arabia and the united states being swapped in a manner of twelve months or so. imagine investors worldwide frothing over the size of the briefcase of the saudi minister of finance in twelve months instead of that of good old Al.com's, like earlier today.and that's a best case scenario. consider the fact that many of the fundamentalists in such countries are just a few assassinations from real political power. how much slack do you think they would cut America should our positions be reversed ? not a hell of a lot, i think. the religion of Islam (as all religions were) was begun as one of peace and love, but the bastardized version practiced by fundamentalists everywhere (christians included) ranks the non-believer on the same level as shit (literally). and getting treated like shit (literally) would be what we would have to look forward to.you cannot have $ 30,000 an ounce gold without devastating changes to the current economic and political landscape. and lots and lots of people everywhere are going to suffer bigtime along the way. doesn't mean that we have to be one of them (which is why we are ALL here) but it also means that every action has an equal and opposite reaction. zero-sum game remember.just some more thoughts/opinions.thanks, Sir Aristotle. you just opened my eyes just a little wider :) JCS (11/16/99; 14:42:57MDT - Msg ID:19218) Scrappy (11/16/99; 14:01:18MDT - Msg ID:19213) Re: Elevator Guy/HoltzmanIf a loaf of bread is selling for $20, what would an ounce of gold be selling for; over $1000 ?Is the price of a loaf of bread relevant to the subject matter that this forum is intended?Did Holtzman's statement regarding the Apostle John's world view give the impression that the prophetic Scriptures of The Book of The Revelation were just John's view of the world in his day?Answers:MOST LIKELY; yes; yes.Every verse in The Book of The Revelation (and the other prophetic Books) is relevant to this forum. (BTW, its not John's revelation. It's The Revelation of Jesus Christ which was given to John.) Look at current events: the European Common Market countries united with a single currency. Was that foretold? yes, in the Book of Daniel about 2600 years ago!!Where is all of this headed: to a single world government with a single world currency, probably with gold figured in somewhere. But by that time it won't matter because the economy of the world will be run by a computer controlled by one person (the computer is in Brussels!! And it is prepared to assign every person a number very much like our Social Security System does: three sets of numbers, each set having six digits, ie, 666.)For Mr. Holtzman, THAT'S where the 666 comes from, not from relating the number to Nero back in the first century AD.My final point is that I personally feel that it IS relevant to the subject of this forum and becomes more relevant with every day that passes. Cavan Man (11/16/99; 14:36:16MDT - Msg ID:19217) Equities Rates up and so is the market in a big way! "The World Turned Upside Down"**This old tune was ordered by Lord Cornwallis to be played as he marched to surrender to George Washington at Yorktown. I am humming it now. Cavan Man (11/16/99; 14:26:36MDT - Msg ID:19216) Holtzman Old and New Hello-When someone with so keen an intellect and apparent excellent academic foundation in history replies to me here at this forum I must be flattered. I thank you for being so gracious and no, I did not make an assumption based upon your chosen sobriquet.I enjoy your thoughts very much and find myself in agreement with much of what you write. Please continue to frequent this assemblage.It is because I do not possess much of an intellect and even less formal education that I never intellectualize matters I define as pertaining to faith. In that regard, I am indeed lucky. Thank you again. CM beesting (11/16/99; 14:20:24MDT - Msg ID:19215) Sir ORO, Bravo great work on your#19168&19169.What is a bubble. http://www.barrick.com/main.cfm I really liked your analysis of Microsoft!Now the question popped into my small mind what company could affect the World Gold market,in a similar way with opposite end results'soaring Gold prices?My answer was Barrick Gold!Sir, Oro if you would like to do a similar analysis of Barrick,here are a few questions:1. Is Barrick in trouble(like Ashanti was)if the spot price of Gold goes way up?2. Is Barrick more of an financial investment house than a Gold mining company?3. Can and will the worlds financial system change dramatically if Barrick develops a severe case of default-itis?4. Will Barricks stock price soar if Microsoft and other high tech stocks collapse?If you decide this is a worthwhile project to persue,here are some links that may help:The top of the post.http://www.denvergold.org/denver_forum99/barrick99.htmhttp://www.josephcharles.com/stocks/a/ABX.htmI have no financial interest in Barrick Gold,my interest is academic. Thanks in advance....beesting TownCrier (11/16/99; 14:20:17MDT - Msg ID:19214) Press Release from the Federal Reserve on the FOMC decision The Federal Open Market Committee today voted to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 5-1/2 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 25 basis point increase in the discount rate to 5 percent.Although cost pressures appear generally contained, risks to sustainable growth persist. Despite tentative evidence of a slowing in certain interest-sensitive sectors of the economy and of accelerating productivity, the expansion of activity continues in excess of the economy's growth potential. As a consequence, the pool of available workers willing to take jobs has been drawn down further in recent months, a trend that must eventually be contained if inflationary imbalances are to remain in check and economic expansion continue.Today's increase in the federal funds rate, together with the policy actions in June and August and the firming of conditions more generally in U.S. financial markets over the course of the year, should markedly diminish the risk of inflation going forward. As a consequence, the directive the Federal Open Market Committee adopted is symmetrical with regard to the outlook for policy over the near term.In taking the discount rate action, the Federal Reserve Board approved requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, Cleveland, Richmond and Kansas City. The discount rate is the rate charged depository institutions when they borrow short-term adjustment credit from their district Federal Reserve Banks. Scrappy (11/16/99; 14:01:18MDT - Msg ID:19213) elevator guy with all due respect, sir, I believe Mr. Holtzman was trying to make a case for learning from history; mans' history. I believe he was attempting to relate the cycles that history has played out to the financial/political cycle we are in now. This does relate to the topic of this forum, and is reference we can all draw from. Religion can only be used as reference for the religious, and has no meaning for those who choose not. He meant no offence, and stated so. I mean no offence, either. Just a meager attempt at clatifying what the objective of this Forum is. Thank you. (Mr. Hltzman, if I have misinterpreted you r intentins here, I apologize. Just trying to help get us all back on track}. Love, the scrap. elevator guy (11/16/99; 13:31:51MDT - Msg ID:19212) IV Holtzman I would be willing to comply with our gracious host's wishes, and not mention any talk of Truth, or secondarily, religion, but seeing how IV Holtzmans post came through official channels, it seems that both the detractors and beleivers have equal time. (And Sacher Torte) The Book of Revelation is about end times prophecies that have not been fufilled yet. The notion of a first century fufillment is an error, and to hold to this belief you must totally ignore some very clear, plain statements. For example, Revelation says that the Messiah, (Jesus Christ), will rule on the earth for 1000 years, (what is called the Millenial Kingdom) For you Old Covenant fans, this is the fufillment of the priophecy that the Messiah would sit on the throne of David, as an earthly king, with power and authority over His subjects. Jesus has not yet sat on the throne of David. This is easy to see, because when at any time did Jesus ever have any earthly political power, in the devotion of all His people? No, rather He came humbly, was rejected, and died a criminals death for no fault of His own, but to redeem us from our sins. And as described in the New Testament, His earthly reign on the throne of David, as an earthly king, is to be for a thousand years. Has anyone seen the Messiah reign for 1000 years? Nope, this has not happened yet. So either the Revelation is not true at all, or it has not happened yet.It means what it says, and what it says has not happened yet, so it is unreasonable to "spiritualize away" the prophecies of Revelation. Furthermore, at what time has any of us literally seen a "new heaven", and a "new earth"? Revealtion says these things are coming, but we have no record in history of any such events. This prophecy is yet to be revealed. phaedrus (11/16/99; 13:14:40MDT - Msg ID:19211) bonds correction small correction of my last post-That is to say, bonds finished below yesterday's LOW, not yesterday's close. On a side note: seems to me either bonds or wrong or oil is wrong. They can't both be where they are right now.okay I'm shuttin' up now phaedrus (11/16/99; 13:09:34MDT - Msg ID:19210) how about them BONDS I fully agree with Stranger in doubting that these bonds have bottomed, and the action today confirms that doubt. Bonds had a bearish relative key reversal....december contract hit 3 week highs after the announcement, and then finished down, BELOW yesterday's close. oh yeah: December gold settles 295.30, up 280Silver 516 1/2, up 6.7more fun tomorrow. ORO (11/16/99; 13:09:05MDT - Msg ID:19209) WilloTheWarthog Aristo Great piece of work you did on G-E.Still reading some of your references.Thank you.Aristotle, I printed out your post and Nomad's, will read and reply if I can add anything.Let me just say that I believe things are bigger than they seemed even to me. And I know I have the highest estimates around for shorts of all forms in the market. ORO (11/16/99; 13:00:29MDT - Msg ID:19208) Reposts Date: Tue Nov 16 1999 07:22Reify (Not bragging...truly) ID#413109:Copyright © 1999 Reify/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved Jims/ORO.....if I understood the conclusion, it seems what I've been saying for years already, that we're headed into an inflationary depression, as contradictory as that sounds, is borne out by what was presented in ORO's texts. What wasn't clear, is theEURO thingy. Are you suggesting that new debts, like the $ debts will replace the whole thing and we start all over with more debts. If that's it I don't buy it. Monetizing the debt with hyper inflation, within a depression, my little mind can jusst about handle, as it's happened in me daddy's time, and I have the bills to prove it.Date: Tue Nov 16 1999 08:36Gollum (@ORO - your 2:49) ID#23746:Copyright © 1999 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved An excellent discussion of the bubbles that get formed by our positive feedback economic system and the mechanisms that both form them and ultimately collapse them. There are a couple of other mechanisms that you might think about at least brushing upon. The first is sectorization. Sectorization compartmentalizes sections of the economy so that a bubble or crash in one segment can occur without much affecting other segments. One could, say, have a bubble or crash in internet stocks without affecting, say, utilities. The second is globalization. Globalization connects segments of the economy so that a bubble or crash in one cannot occur without affecting the others. A country can lower interest rates, say, in order to stimulate the economy, but succeeds only in expanding the economy of other higher interest rate economies. Our total global economy is a very complex beast (much like the lever room) and no segment is or can be purely globalized or sectored. A collapse of the shorting bubble in gold for example might appear to be very well sectored and have little impact upon say, internet stocks, but it will and does. Those that lose massively by being on the short side eventually have to make up their losses and meet their margin calls somehow. That "somehow" means cashing in profits from somewhere else. People predicting a "crash" for the whole market system on the other hand might find themselves nonplused to see only some sector or a few sectors crash instead with everything else roaring ahead seemingly unscathed. People might even deride them for having called one more not-to-be-seen crash. These people should realize that although the tent doesn't fall when the first peg or two is pulled the main poles cannot stand for long when all the lines and risers are gone. Some time ago the poster known as "Forklift" noticed some anomalous action in the real estate markets about the time the G7 announced the change in direction by the central banks vis-à-vis gold ( which, by the way, sent a noticeable shudder through the "other" markets at the same time ) . Here is what I told him: Date: Thu Sep 30 1999 10:35 Gollum ( @Forklift ) ID#35571: Copyright © 1999 Gollum/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved A tidal wave moving across the ocean is only a few feet high although it does move pretty fast. It is lost among the wind driven waves. Even an eighty foot tall hurricane driven wave, however, is a peanut compared to the tsunami once it gets near shore. Why? Because the wind wave is very shallow. Go down a few dozens of feet below the surface and you wouldn't even know there was a storm going on. The tidal wave on the other hand goes all the way down to the bottom thousands of feet down. What we are seeing is the tsunami moving across the ocean and nearing shore. The markets are all interrelated like a vast ocean and THIS disturbance goes all the way down to the core. Did you notice how the bond and equity markets plunged as the POG hit it's top? It's not surprising that you see the turmoil in the real estate market too. There is a great disturbance in the force. We are seeing a turning point in the value of things as opposed to the value of paper. For years inflation has been held down by holding up the dollar. So now a new turning, a new cycle, and the wave comes rolling in. http://www.crbindex.com/crbindex/crb-b1.gif Date: Tue Nov 16 1999 14:34ORO (@EJ -Reposting @Gollum -sector bubbles @Reify -Euro debt) ID#71231:Copyright © 1999 ORO/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved EJ Go ahead and repost. I only ask that comments, particularly germain criticism of any merit be reposted here. Credit it to my handle, ORO. Gollum Good points. Thanks. I was asked, in different context if aggregation of risk lowers it. I answered that small waves and vortexes are dampenned, but the big "systemic" risk rises as people "prove" that stability is inherent using statistics generated during the aggregation process. The perception of low risk develops and the rules of the game are take extra risk get extra reward, someone else will dig you out of the mess when your sector collapses, if the system needs your sector to operate, it will prevent a crash. Today, the moral hazard due to risk aggregation has grown to the point of any one major sector being sufficiently leveraged to devastate the system as a whole. Yes, the capital market does connect them all, and a collapse in one sector does run through the market pulling down everything just a little. The big issue is that there are points at which obligations are made, assurances given, but no possibility of realizing them exists. The problem is default. The only way to stop the chain of default from expanding, like a crack in glass, is to hit a government guarantee that is actively managed by printing currency. The end result is default on the value of the currency. Reify, There are some who think the explosive can be made to deflagrate in a slow burn rather than detonate. The slow burn would not destroy everything and allow many survivors, explosion would make chop asaki out of us all. I hope to find a way to do the slow burn, but have not. The reversal of "virtuous" feed forward mechanisms is not a possibility in the operation of the markets themselves. It takes very active external ( read CB and rule makers ) management and massive inflation to prevent detonation from starting. The fuel ( debt ) and the oxygen ( fear ) of explosive financial disasters are tightly packed together. Once initiated, the detonation front destroys anything that stands in its way. The Euro transition of EM debt is part of a "contolled burn" strategy. We have to hope it succeeds. Inflationary depression - pat yourself on the back for that one. Gandalf the White (11/16/99; 12:46:54MDT - Msg ID:19207) Thanks phaedrus Thanks for the blow by blow real time results ! -- The Hobbits are dizzy from the DOW up 40, down 130, up 80 down 30 and have gone to bed !<;-) WilloTheWarthog (11/16/99; 12:39:51MDT - Msg ID:19206) ECB Speech (more) http://www.ecb.int "Taking the current situation as a starting point, the Eurosystem's position concerning the future international role of the euro is crystal clear: we shall not adopt a belligerent stance in order to force the use of the euro upon the world economy. We are convinced that the use of the euro as an international currency will come about anyway. It will happen spontaneously, slowly but inexorably, without any impulses other than those based on free will and the decisions of market participants, without any logic other than that of the market. In other words, the internationalisation of the euro is not a policy objective of the Eurosystem; it will neither be fostered nor hindered by us. The development of the euro as an international currency will be a market-driven process, a free process." In other words, "We know the dollar's dead, and it doesn't need any help from us." The Stranger (11/16/99; 12:38:58MDT - Msg ID:19205) Let The Party Continue? Wall Street's pre-announcement party this morning reminded me of something Winston Churchill once wrote about his youthful experience fighting in the Boer War. "There is no greater exhilaration," he said, "than being shot at and missed."Today, the revelers had apparently decided beforehand that, however carefully the Fed took their aim, the bullets would miss their mark. At the very least, somebody hasn't heard of the three steps and a stumble rule. At worst, Greenspan's resolve is being tested in a way that will only lead to more increases down the road.Forget what the Department of Labor is saying about wages. With one Fed district after another reporting wage pressures that belie official figures, the bond market has NOT bottomed and short term rates have not peaked. phaedrus (11/16/99; 12:36:04MDT - Msg ID:19204) neutral bias is the key Bonds are taking a hit because they don't like the neutral bias. That means they ain't out the woods yet. Which is why they are down on the day now.Bonds are the key to this situation. Equity markets don't bottom until bonds bottom. CPI comes out tomorrow. More rock n' roll.last trade for gold 295.30, up 280 (not a settlement). Silver looks like she'll finish up almost 7 cents also. The Invisible Hand (11/16/99; 12:35:16MDT - Msg ID:19203) gold is rising again rising vis-a-vis previous close and VIS-A-VIS ITS VALUE BEFORE THE FOMC ANNOUNCEMENT up $ 2.60 last time I looked Scrappy (11/16/99; 12:26:27MDT - Msg ID:19202) Scrappy Here, Sir Gandalf! Reporting for duty! The Golden Cake is in the oven, sir, rising ever so beautifully, and it ain't Twinkies@tm, either, sir!Now, if we could just quiet those rascals on Wall Street so it doesn't fall! Lots of love has gone into this cake, sir, as exqusite an work of art as an Austrian Philharmonic!Maybe if we make lots of noise, the DOW HoHo@tm will fall, and this lovely GOLDEN cake can be enjoyed in peace. By us, of course. :} WilloTheWarthog (11/16/99; 12:26:20MDT - Msg ID:19201) The Gloves are Off-Latest Speech from ECB(today!) http://ww.ecb.int Note the part about the reserve currency. This hasn't been talked about very much before. See ECB home page for a link to the entire text.The euro as a new international currencySpeech delivered by Eugenio Domingo Solans,Member of the Governing Council and the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at a conference organised by the European Institute Washington at the Rittenhouse Hotel,Philadelphia, 16 November 1999 Let me begin by thanking Mr. Churchill of the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia and Madame Grapin, President of The European Institute, for inviting me to this luncheon and for giving me the opportunity to give you my views and, therefore, the views of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB), on the euro as an international currency. Nowadays the euro is the second most widely used currency in the world economy, behind the US dollar and ahead of the Japanese yen. As we all know, any currency fulfils three basic functions: it is a store of value, a medium of exchange and a unit of account. As a store of value the use of the euro as an investment and financing currency is rapidly increasing, as investors understand the advisability of diversifying their portfolio currencies among those which are more stable and more internationally used. The euro is developing at a slower pace as a medium of exchange or payment currency in theinternational exchange of goods and services. This fact can easily be explained by the combined and reinforcing effects of network externalities and economies of scale in the use of a predominant international currency as a medium of exchange, as is the case with the US dollar. The use of the euro as a unit of account is linked to its use as a store of value and a medium of exchange. The value stored in euro or the payments made in euro will tend to be counted in euro. There are good reasons to expect an increase in international public use of the euro as a reserve, intervention and pegging currency, inasmuch as the public authorities understand that it is worthwhile to allocate their foreign reserves among the main international currencies and to give the euro a relevant share in accordance with its internal and external stability and the economic and financial importance of the euro area. phaedrus (11/16/99; 12:24:22MDT - Msg ID:19200) MARKET GIVING UP GAINS Now eight minutes after announcement, bonds are DOWN a point, giving up all gainsS&P has sliced gains in half, dow futures back to unchanged The Invisible Hand (11/16/99; 12:24:02MDT - Msg ID:19199) up 0.25 % FOMC raises with 1/4th of a percentWall Street raises, gold down.Is there anyone around who has a grasp of economics? Aristotle (11/16/99; 12:21:10MDT - Msg ID:19198) Hello Nomad, I'm glad to see you share an interest in these matters I can't promise you solid, irrefutable answers to the many questions that might spring from all of this (can anyone, on ANY topic, for that matter?) but maybe we can stumble around and at least walk away with a better understanding or perception of what might be happening in our neighbor's backyard.You suggested, "IF just a small fraction of the total sales have been swapped for real money (gold) during that intervening time, then OPEC nations should have reserves on the order of 1 billion ounces or more."A couple of my own questions come to mind. But first, because I have a pea-sized brain for which such a large number as 1 billion ounces is an almost incomprehensible abstraction, let's translate that to 30,000 tonnes. Knowing that the U.S. holds officially roughly 8,000 tonnes, the IMF 3,000 tonnes, and the Euro System Member Banks hold about 12,000 tonnes we can put this into better perspective.I don't know how reasonable your attempt is to put a figure on something deemed a "small fraction of total sales." In truth, it could be just about anything, so let's not get too married to the idea of 30,000 tonnes. ORO has done some extensive research and I'm sure he will be kind enough to let us know what value he has arrived at for a best approximation.The other issue then becomes, of this large lump of Gold, how much of it has been taken in hand and remains in hand? Just as was discussed with the petro-dollars being recycled, it is possible that much of this petro-Gold has been circulate within the Gold financial system--providing the metal liquidity for such things as Gold loans. OK, so much for the portion of this huge lump of Gold you mention that may have been originally taken in hand (some may still be in hand, some circulating while out "on loan"). The next question is then How much of this lump of Gold which has been purchased was available for immediate delivery? It should be obvious by now that not only could they participate in the Gold financial architecture as the source of metal as alluded to above, but that they also participate as the buyers of Gold-yet-to-be-mined and delivered as mentioned in my long post. HAving so many precious eggs spread far and wide in many baskets in many hands speaks more of an incentive to participate in a stable, civilized world than it does of an isolated beast preparing to smother the world in meringue by wielding (and whipping with sugar and vanilla) the power of the eggs amassed in one large basket kept close at hand.OK, I just now used the world "power," but only because you did. Many times. What do you mean by "power"?"wouldn't this result in a HUGE shift in world power to those nations with large gold reserves ?""wouldn't the fall of the mighty United States parallel the collapse of former superpower USSR ?""would not the Middle Eastern states assume the mantle of world economic power, especially if some umbrella organization could consolidate the power of these states much as Euro-land has?""...use the crisis events of Y2K to consolidate the power of the Islamic nations and to further unify them...""if you controlled much of the supply of the most crucial commodity on the planet (oil) why would you NOT take whatever steps necessary (even if it takes 20 years to do so) to become THE economic/religious/cultural power on that planet?"This may be a tough question, but it's an important one. What is Power, and what's the payoff after working so hard to get it? Some people might say that Power is dominating that lives and will of other people. That's quite the brass ring to grab, and not so easy to keep hold of. Dictators are as notoriously prone to failure as are fiat currencies. And again, where's the payoff? Such Power may satisfy the ego of a madman, but isn't it true, that at the end of the day, all anybody really wants and needs is a little security--the kind of security that provides the ability to make meaningful plans for tomorrow, next week, or next year. An overlord can ensure that the world is held fast to accomodate his needs. But likewise, person with meaningful savings in a stable world can just as easily plan for the future and meet his needs.I've been fortunate to have known and befriended people from all over the world, of many religions, and my happy conclusion is that fundamentally we are all the same--rocketing through space on a tiny garden of a planet amongst the greater void and the distant stars, all of us with a handful of decades with which to enjoy our ride and find meaning in our lives. I would venture to say that the world is a better place thanks to many people that lived on American soil. The same holds true for many other types of soil bearing other national names. While Americans themselves are not as a lot mean-spirited and out to ruin other people's lives, it can't be overlooked that the SYSTEM of monetary policy that has evolved centering around the U.S. dollar has, in fact, contributed to much of the continuing misery. If a group of people with a vested interest in promoting a stable and civilized world were to take strides toward bringing it about, they wouldn't lash out to destroy the lives of Americans, but would target the toppling of the monetary system that mutated from independent Gold and was nurtured by misguided policy-makers into the aberrant dollar-dominated system we now have. If your wealth is in limbo as dollar-denominated financial instruments instead of hard assets, you can find the appropriate warnings in the wise words of ANOTHER--"Your wealth is not as great as your paper says it is."Gold. Get you some. ---AristotlePS. I got too busy with other projects, and still owe my promised comments on Lincoln's greenbacks. Found some recent material that will help make my case, too. phaedrus (11/16/99; 12:17:32MDT - Msg ID:19197) FED RAISES QUARTER PERCENT markets initial bullish reactionS&P up 20 points immediately afterbonds up 17 pointsgold at 29480 up 2.30 Gandalf the White (11/16/99; 12:08:57MDT - Msg ID:19196) Oh OH ! WE are running off track again !Where is Scrappy ?How is the GOLDEN cake for The Scot coming ?Hurry up AG and let the fireworks begin !OR will it be a fizzle or a DOW rocket ?Where are you Aragorn III ?<;-) JCS (11/16/99; 11:57:53MDT - Msg ID:19195) The Latest from Holtzman... Mr. Holtzman wrote: "I discussed John because, although his words were already under discussion here, his 100 AD world view was not.'John, The Revelator, did not have a world view. He was imprisoned on the Isle of Patmos and knew very little about what was going on around him. Actually, he could have cared less, except that the Gospel of Jesus Christ be spread abroad. The writings of John did not depict the Roman Empire or the rulers of the day: it was prophetic to our day. John, Peter, Mark, James, Jude, Matthew, Luke, and the other disciples knew and understood the plan of God because for 40 days after His resurrection, Jesus "taught them about the things that were to come." We who searches the Scriptures also understands what the plan is and where the hands of the clock stand. I venture to say that ALL of the prophetic writings in both the Old and New Testaments will be fullfilled within 37 years from Jan. 1, 2000, so IMO, none of us will have to worry about 3900 AD.Finally, only a cultist church in America would proclaim David Koresh a saint. It is easy to discern that he was a "false teacher" as described in the New Testament. phaedrus (11/16/99; 11:29:49MDT - Msg ID:19194) Greenspan will raise.... at least that's my bet. As to whether the markets will tank or go higher when he does, that's anyone's guess. Find out in 45 minutes or so, anyway (from the time of this post).To get some perspective on this stock market, take a look at a General Electric stock chart for 1927-1932. It's a perfect arrowhead top. Went about as close to straight up as you can get...and then straight down. We've seen this movie before. Netking (11/16/99; 11:23:55MDT - Msg ID:19193) Kaplan comment / Holtzman KAPLAN'S CORNER: QUESTION: "To what do you attribute the huge recent collapse in COMEX gold open interest? ANSWER: Commercials areno longer interested in being either net long or net short gold at current price levels, anticipating that we are at a sort of equilibrium, whilespeculators who crave action are becoming bored with gold and are looking for more exciting games elsewhere. This is typical behavior following asharp rally from a deeply depressed base." - Comments?Holtzman Re:19191 - No more new covenants Sir. Both were covenants of promise but the old one was im-perfect. Blood was shed under the New Covenant that would fulfill all requirements of the old for ever - by one sacrifice sin was imputed for ever. No third covenant. Farfel (11/16/99; 11:11:03MDT - Msg ID:19192) Stock Market to Soar Today, Greenspan No Longer Matters CNBC trying to create an atmosphere of suspense around the FOMC meeting today. Are they kidding?Is everybody ready for the huge stock market explosion to the upside?Did you all purchase your S & P call options yet? Don't be left out now. Get on board before the train leaves the station.In a bubble, it does not matter whether the Fed cuts rates, keeps them the same, or raises them.The stock market always goes up in the end. It's a permanent party. You don't need any technical or fundamental analysis. You don't need the voodoo prognostications of an APH or any other stock market analyst. They can never be more than mere cheerleaders for the vertical mania today. The crowd is now in charge. The crowd is fearless. Pragmatism and rationality are not factors any longer. In a bubble mania, the stock market always goes up. Ultimately.Just sit back and watch Intel, Microsoft, Coke, Dell, Amazon, Ebay, and all the rest rocket to the moon today.ThanksF* USAGOLD (11/16/99; 10:52:27MDT - Msg ID:19191) The Latest from Holtzman... Holtzman here,Cavan Man wrote in (11/11/99; 18:14:17MDT - Msg ID:18937) that, 'Your "paranoid" fellow is a Saint in the estimation of both the Eastern and Western Christian Churches. He and we of the New Covenant have immense respect for the Old Covenant. Whether you "covenant" or not, you're out of line big guy; good thoughts though.'My apologies, Cavan Man. Good thoughts were my only intent, never offence.When we hear words spoken by Alan Greenspan, we regard the words themselves as important, yet we regard as far more important the motivations behind the scenes which inspired AG to utter those particular words at that particular time. I did not mean to offend anyone when I applied the same analysis to the words of a writer now regarded as a saint. But remember, John was not regarded as a saint when he wrote his original words. He was merely another mortal man who was talking his book.I discussed John because, although his words were already under discussion here, his 100 AD world view was not. It is dangerous to base financial decisions on any one advisor's words without delving more clearly into how that advisor sees his world. People who make investment decisions quickly and on limited information generally come to regret it later. Unbridled emotion, whether fear or greed, is a perilous thing.Those who've historically been most successful in acquiring and preserving wealth have been those who've kept both their fear and their greed under tight control. The steady investor almost always outperforms the impulse trader.As USAGOLD pointed out in (11/14/99; 8:29:13MDT - Msg ID:19075), the paper gold market seems poised to go into convulsions again. On the assumption that Spot and Street POG remain in lockstep through this next spasm, the gut-wrenching leaps and drops of the past month are likely to be repeated, or even exceeded, in the near-to-mid term future. If any person, whether inspired by greed or fear, throws his entire life savings into gold at a single moment, he's running a phenomenal risk of being savaged the following trading day. It's far safer to average into any investment by making many small purchases.With the price of gold at inflation-adjusted lows not seen in 80 years, the time could not be more opportune to be a gradual and steady acquirer of gold. After all, Caesar still rules today, and will still rule in the future. Even when the current world order passes away, it will be replaced by a new, but not so very different, world order. And throughout all the world orders which have come and gone in humanity's history, one of the most persistent refrains has been the reawakening of respect for the value of gold.At the same time, to expand on what Doubting Thomas wrote in (11/13/99; 15:18:42MDT - Msg ID:19050), as much as our ships need "ballast for weathering the rapidly approaching storm," they also need sails, a rudder, a compass and a barometer.Let gold be your ballast to minimise your chances of being capsized. Let stocks continue to be your sails so you can capture the trade winds and reach your destination. Let fiat currency bank accounts be your rudder so you can adjust your course by purchasing more sail or more ballast as conditions warrant. And let sources of uncensored information such as this forum be your console of compasses and barometers.The captain of the good ship Holtzman hasn't yet pulled in all sails because he still thinks he can skirt the storm, but ballast and rudder are uppermost in his mind now. We're approaching what could be a very intense political/economic turning point but, as a certain Vulcan once pointed out, history is replete with turning points. The trick to surviving the oncoming future is to learn how our predecessors weathered similar events in the past.Cavan Man, maybe this will help you see history the way I do, as a repeating series of cycles... I rate the odds as excellent that, 1900 years in our future, David Koresh will have attained sainthood among at least one Western (American) Church, in some presumably Even Newer Covenant. To make the story seem somehow even more preordained, editors in the intervening centuries will most likely have relocated David's showdown from Waco to Goliad.Sadly for David, however, any such future acclaim will not have improved the man's own twentieth century life. Nor will it restore to happiness any of the people David pulled down with him (on both sides of the showdown).Please believe me, I do sympathise with John, David, and any other person who feels he's trapped and powerless in a no-escape world. I myself had such a bout with End Times fatalism in my early teen years, but my own eyes showed me the way back to the sunshine a scant six months later. I daresay no modern adult is still afraid of the Minotaur, yet so many remain convinced that the other beast is still out there. I do not believe it is a breach of faith to let go of long outdated fears.How many people at this forum have ever worried over the fate of future humans come 3900 AD? Then why assume anyone in 100 AD gave the first thought to us? The antichrist, the beast, was simply the Roman emperor during John's lifetime. 616 was John's code name for Nero... it was changed to 666 in revisions long after John's death, most likely because DCLXVI looked more mathematically significant to later (Roman) editors. Were John alive today, he'd feel right at home with those who spell Clinton with a K. And in both eras, protestors against governmental heavy-handedness are good for humanity.Once you see how little Man himself has changed in 1900 years, you'll find it so much easier to negotiate the present by using your knowledge of the past.By the way, Cavan Man, it intrigues me that you think I might be Old Covenant (from my moniker, perhaps?). I.V. Holtzman is a fictional character from Dune, predating Paul Atreides by several thousand years. Holtzman was a human mind transferred to a spaceship's computer, drifting in an extremely elliptical orbit so that he was only rarely at perihelion (nearest point to the sun) where he had enough light on his solar cells to transmit messages. The rest of the time he was thinking up things to say. Lots and lots of things. It seemed a fitting moniker for someone whose preferred posting style is that of the infrequent but massive datadump.Yours,I.V. HoltzmanPS: Yet another formerly fringe topic has now been deemed worthy by the talking heads. CNN reports on the pros and cons of One World Currency at http://www.cnn.com/interactive/specials/9911/future.outlook/framesets/money.exclude.html Nomad (11/16/99; 9:47:12MDT - Msg ID:19190) Aristotle : Gold / Oil Questions http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_99/gordon111299.html 'With the continued precipitous decline in the US dollar which should ensue as the Kondratieff winter unfolds, some power, a united Europe led by France and Germany, or Japan, which is possibly the emerging world power following the coming Kondratieff winter, will assume the leadership with gold. Following the demise of the dollar, which should go hand in hand with the expected US stock market crash, antagonism towards paper assets and the desire for a monetary system that cannot be debased will be worldwide.'this is a quote from the URL above. after having read Aristotle's HOF posts on oil/gold, i have a number of questions/comments ...first, by my (very, very) rough estimate, the OPEC nations have produced between 2-4 trillion dollars of oil over the last 20 years since gold made its last mega-rise in 1979-80. IF the House of Saud (and presumably other Middle East nations) have been trading oil for gold over these last twenty years, and IF just a small fraction of the total sales have been swapped for real money (gold) during that intervening time, then OPEC nations should have reserves on the order of 1 billion ounces or more. if THIS is true, then with the (inevitable) collapse of the US stock market & the collapes of the US dollar as a reserve currency and the subsequent flight to gold, wouldn't this result in a HUGE shift in world power to those nations with large gold reserves ? i.e. wouldn't the fall of the mighty United States parallel the collapse of former superpower USSR ? and would not the Middle Eastern states assume the mantle of world economic power, especially if some umbrella organization could consolidate the power of these states much as Euro-land has ?i also wanted to mention an anectdotal letter i saw a few months ago. the letter was from a geek in Minnesota who met with the bigshot father of his Middle Eastern college roommate. the father, having extensive contacts with powerful individuals in various Middle Eastern regimes apparently was persuaded to cease and desist in his efforts to warn various governmental agencies by certain powerful individuals within the Islamic religious 'community', as there was a significant faction within this community which desired to use the crisis events of Y2K to consolidate the power of the Islamic nations and to further unify them under the umbrella faith of Islamic fudamentalism. IF this anectdote is true (and it was very believable to me) and IF what Aristotle proposes is true, then this appears to have a number of interesting (and severe) consequences for the future. also, i have seen a number of internet pundits, both here and in other forums pontificate on the Y2K bump in the road scenario and about how it just isn't possible to use the currently available information to profit from the coming (possible) problems. it seems to me that following the crowd is a guaranteed recipe for disaster. just look at the current stock market bubble. now consider that most of the readers of this forum are bucking the conventional wisdom to an extreme extent in putting their faith in gold. is it even remotely surprising to you that the powers-that-be in the Middle East, who happen to have a lot more money and millenia of cultural experience with the importance of the yellow metal in economic affairs, who might be making the same moves as we are, but on a vastly larger scale ? if you controlled much of the supply of the most crucial commodity on the planet (oil) why would you NOT take whatever steps necessary (even if it takes 20 years to do so) to become THE economic/religious/cultural power on that planet ?seems like a no-brainer to me ... TownCrier (11/16/99; 9:43:05MDT - Msg ID:19189) Fed's overnight system repos totaled $2.7 billion http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/991116/so.html One way street...reserves (cash) generated from these short-term loans flow from the Federal Reserve System to banks in exchange for collateral such as Treasuries, or mortgage-backed securities. The banks pay this out to their customers who are either with withdrawing cash or spending it directly (writing checks on it.) Money that didn't previously exist is now out in the real world competing for the limited goods and services, and prices are pressured to rise as a result. The net purchasing power of the money you have confidently left sitting in the bank has thus lost net purchasing power just as sure as if the money itself had been partially wiped from your account. USAGOLD (11/16/99; 9:34:01MDT - Msg ID:19188) Today's Gold Market Report: Gold Resumes Climb MARKET REPORT(11/16/99): Gold jumped higher in early New York trade on short covering. The yellow broke out in the afternoon session in London after a quiet night in Asia. Congress/White House Settle on IMF Gold Uses -- Gold also be reacting to a deal made late last night between Congress and the White House on the revaluation of IMF gold. Reuters reports the deal would allow the IMF to revalue its gold higher to fund international debt relief, according to Senator Phil Gramm. Gold advocates had been concerned about the IMF gold sales serving as a means for financial institutions short the market to obtain much needed metal. Neither the Bridge nor Reuters reports detailed how the relief funds would be generated. We'll track this story and update later if the details surface.... Timothy Green (Author of several important books on gold) on the Washington Agreement -- "Ultimately the decision by the European central banks to limit gold sales for the next five years will be seen as one of the landmarks in the gold market in our generation. Although central banks have been net sellers into the market since 1965 (prior to that they were regular net buyers), the uncertainty about the timing and amount of their sales has hung over the market for much of the 1990s. That fear has now been dissipated. True, sales will continue, but modest and controlled. And I hope with the precedent that, in five years'time,a similar sales policy will be repeated." (In a letter to the "Alchemist" -- the LBMA's quarterly publication.) Noted Gold Bear Ted Arnold says -- "We confess to being absolutely astounded by the Central Bank moratorium. We would have never expected such a development. We still want to know why they really did what they did." (In a letter to the "Alchemist" -- the LBMA's quarterly publication.) Some Comments Upon Reviewing the charts' page in Grant's Interest Rate Observer -- We note that equity mutual funds are down 13.6% while money market funds are up 18.3% over the past three months. Money is clearly coming out of stocks and going into cash. Federal Reserve bank credit simultaneously is up 13.2%. Also currency is up a Y2K related 12.7%. Double digits all around. We have assumed the Austrian view to be the correct one -- inflation does not necessarily have to manifest itself in prices; it can also be detoured through equity values. Now that inflation is coming out of stocks. Federal Open Market Committee Meets Today -- Today we have the FOMC meeting and the decision on interest rates. Our guess: No changes until the first quarter next year despite the ever growing Wall Street bubble, the Producer Price Index scare of last week and near full-employment. Why? Y2K for one, and to give the U.S. some advantage in the currency wars, for another. The U.S. -- running one record trade deficit after another -- needs exports and with Europe raising rates last week; it provides opportunity to get them. The dollar in this scenario tracks lower which should translate to a benefit for gold -- perhaps the hidden reason for gold's strength today. Thanks, fellow meisters. See you here tomorrow. Please call 800-869-5115 (Ask for Mary Conway) if you have an interest in receiving a trial subscription to our widely read newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary and Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Or you can go to our ORDER FORM and submit your request by E-Mail. You will also receive our introductory packet on investing in gold. Gandalf the White (11/16/99; 9:31:00MDT - Msg ID:19187) The POG and Today's FOMC announcement effect on THE BUBBLE WOWSERS, this is getting to be unbelievable! -- The market is going wild before the rate announcement comes out later today. -- BUT, the Hobbits have headed for the bomb shelters, as they have seen Gandalf's crystal ball that AG and Buds are going to raise the rate half a point !! -- What do you think that will do to the markets ? Do you see the VOLUME so far today ? DISTRIBUTION in SPADES !!!AND the POG reclaims some of the hit taken yesterday morning by the big dump. -- Looks as if the Goldhearts will have to await The Scot's B-Day to celibrate as that is when the POG will start up again. -- Just the view from Hobbiton.<;-) SteveH (11/16/99; 9:22:55MDT - Msg ID:19186) Read this! http://www.inet.co.za/netassets/sitewide/content/direct/0,2275,512758-5232-0,00.html IMF gold revaluation. YGM (11/16/99; 8:49:07MDT - Msg ID:19185) More Y2K Y2K - Emergency Services To Go Full Alert, Engines Running, At 11 PM Dec. 31From: Silverbaron (Newsgroup chatter on Y2K) ID#290456Copyright © 1999 Silverbaron/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved11-15-99Snipped from a newsgroup posting: "On Friday Nov. 12 , our emergency services station recieved a mandate from our State Dept. of Health which regulates emergency services. Although I cannot disclose the full contents of this document, it does include the following: At 2300 hours on Dec. 31, all fire and rescue agencys must be fully staffed. At 2330 hours all back up emergency generators must be operatng... buildings which have an electric garage door opener all doors must be open and manually propped in the event of power failure. At 2345 hours all emergency vehicles must be started and left running.... we have been advised to leave the vehicles running until 0015 Jan. 1, at which time we are to cut off and attempt to restart one vehicle... if that vehicle would happen to not to restart, then we are advised to leave all other vehicles running until further notice. The mandate also dictates that the inventory of mass casualtty supplies be increased by 50%...this includes items such as trauma dressings, gauze, cravats, normal saline, IV supplies, backboards, and C collars.. each region in our state has also established a Mass Casuality Command Center The mandate also advises that fuel storage should be topped off to full capacity by no later than Dec. 29... we are also told stock enough food and suppies to feed and house all members of our agencies for a period of 90 days.............. there is more to the document that i cannot disclose. WHAT IN THE HELL IS GOING ON? Are they expecting mass riots or what? Does anyone hae a clue? Let me know....I've been a medic for 10 years now and never have seen the state go to such extremes." YGM (11/16/99; 8:44:47MDT - Msg ID:19184) Because it's so Quiet I'm posting entire piece. Y2K - Latest UpdatedList Of Serious Possible US ProblemsBy Anthony Grigor-Scott <ags@biblebelievers.org.au>Biblebelievers' Newsletter #9611-15-99In January, Brigadier General Ed Wheeler of the Okalahoma Y2K Task Force was urging people to stockpile at least six months supply of food for Y2K. Last month he said, "I now recommend a one year's food supply". His estimate of the likely minimum impact of Y2K in the U.S.: 1. Serious shortages of food, gas, oil, merchandise 2. Higher prices 3. Interruption of Services 4. Unanticipated Disruptions 5. Non-Y2K-compliant oil wells, pipelines, ports and refineries world-wide reducing gas and oil supplies causing exorbitant prices General Wheeler mentioned these facts: The FBI has cancelled leave for all personnel during the roll-over. 16,000 FBI agents will be on duty (WorldNet Daily, July 8, 1999). Sea captains are being told to "find a port" on December 31, 1999 (Business Journal, February 18, 1999). IRS warns House Ways and Means Committee: records of equipment and software at its offices nationwide posed "high risks" from Y2K -- Reuters <http://home.cnet.com/category/0-1009-200-1425836.htmlhttp://home.cnet.com/cate gory/0-1009-200-1425836.html IBM listed about 70 U.S. companies that have to date invested tens or hundreds millions of dollars on Y2K, and are still not compliant. U.S. Senators Bennett, Dodd and Hatch have stated that Y2K could disrupt the world economy. The U.S. Government set up an underground bunker at the Department of Military Affairs near Washington D.C. for a Y2K strategic command center where the heads of all major State agencies will spend the night of December 31, 1999 (Chicago Tribune, September 20, 1999). The US Energy Department recommended oil be stockpiled for Y2K (Reuters, April 22, 1999). The American Red Cross recommends a minimum food supply of two weeks per family. The U.S. Senate says that 70% of the States are NOT READY for Y2K According to a State Department summary of 161 nations, half are at medium to high risk for catastrophic failures (Jonathan Scott, Memphis Business Journal, July 26, 1999). On July 15, Senator Bennett stated that Phoenix, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, Baltimore, Detroit, San Antonio, El Paso, and Washington D.C. were "crowding it" for Y2K readiness. According to an Associated Press poll on July 29, at least 67 million Americans plan to withdraw money from their banks for Y2K. Over 83 million are stockpiling food and supplies in their homes. A 44-page report from International Monitoring Ltd, of London, concludes "there is a risk of global financial gridlock due to isolated Y2K instability in the (public telecom and electrical) networks." In addition, they said, "Y2K-related financial gridlock could be on the order of trillions of dollars involving multiple large or small institutional bank failures." Unfortunately, "neither the Bank for International Settlements, the International Monetary Fund, the Global 2000 working group, nor the World Bank has a fully coordinated crisis response plan for such situations." World-wide economic collapse is a very real possibility The Wall Street Transcript, on November 2, 1999 quoting analyst D. Paul Cohen said, "U.S. corporate Y2K compliance progress is one of the biggest corporate deceptions I have seen in 30 years of analytical experience." To date, over half the Fortune 500 companies in America are non-compliant for Y2K. John Koskinen says that over 800,000 Small Businesses in America are at risk of failure due to Y2K. Y2K expert Jim Lord reports that, "According to a June 1999 report titled, "Master Utility List," the US Navy and Marines believe "total failure is likely" for New York City's water and sewer systems because of Y2K problems. They expect more than 26 million American citizens in 125 cities to be without electricity, water, gas or sewer services next January. Many more would be affected in foreign countries. London, England, for example, is expected to experience failures of all four types of utilities. Many of the people impacted by these failures would be military personnel and their families. Forty-five of the cities named in the survey have a population greater than 100,000. Eight of the nation's dozen largest metropolitan areas are affected. Here's the U.S. Navy's expectation: * Dallas -- no water.* Washington DC and Philadelphia -- no gas* Baltimore, Houston, New York and Miami -- no water or sewerage.* Atlanta -- no water or gas* San Antonio -- no water or electricity.* Fort Worth and New Orleans -- no water, gas or sewerage services." In a recent survey by the Department of Health and Human Services, only 27% of hospitals reported that their biomedical equipment was completely Y2K ready. An Education Department survey released last week said 36% of public elementary and secondary school districts are unprepared to fix date-sensitive computer systems. And 39% of colleges -- where tuition aid records and longtime research could be threatened -- told the department they were not ready. How about you? Have you taken precautions for your home? How about your soul? Psychology, Gold and Y2K According to Ron Brown of North American Investment Services there has been an obviously orchestrated propaganda blitz since March 1999 regarding Y2k and the gold market, with a flood of Y2K "good news" assurances from presidents, prime ministers, the Federal Reserve, and even Rothschild's "The Economist Magazine". Quoting Y2K expert Jim Lord, he suggests: The battleground of Y2k is not about solving the problem, but about winning the propaganda war for public opinion. As Mr. Lord correctly points out, the greatest threat of Y2k is the impact it will have on the banking system. It's not the "problem" but the "perception of the problem" that creates the crisis and thus it's own reality. Y2k or not, the financial system of the world is a gigantic bubble looking for a pin. The only thing holding it together is consumer confidence. Regardless of its magnitude, Y2k is a sharp pin that threatens to prick that veil of confidence. The gold market appears to be a rigged game. In a news release of April 22, the GOLD ANTI-TRUST ACTION COMMITTEE (<http://www.biblebelievers.org.au/nl080.htmGATA) state, "the price and supply of gold are being controlled by a cartel of Wall Street investment houses and bullion banks with the possible encouragement of the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury." This confirms what many of us have suspected for years. Anyone who has reviewed some of the EXECUTIVE ORDERS enacted by current and past Presidents of the United States of America should be aware that the events of today are really part of a much bigger plan. The crisis we are headed for is not the result of bumbling idiots in high places. These executive orders did not get on the law books by accident. They represent a highly organized agenda to undermine our freedoms and national sovereignty. Any plan of action must not ignore this frightening but stark reality. The world economy is collapsing. Actually, the system began to unravel two years ago in the Pacific Rim where the combination of stock market collapse and currency devaluation destroyed as much as 80% of the wealth in Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, etc. Despite IMF efforts to defuse the problem, the crisis quickly spread to Russia -- -which is an economic basket case --- slowing the economies of Europe. The "Asian Flu" proceeded on to South America where Brazil now teeters on the brink of disaster. If Brazil goes, all of South America goes. The world financial boom of the last 18 years is trying to collapse while the international bankers who created this Ponzi scheme are trying desperately to hold it together . . . at least until they can blame it on Y2K. The United States is the "Buyer of Last Resort." When you analyse it, the only thriving economy in the world is the United States. I am convinced monetary authorities are using the US to prop up the whole world. Think about it. The dollar is strong -- not from it's own strength -- but because currencies of other nations are weaker. Flight capital from failing economies throughout the world seeking refuge in the US, continues to fuel our financial markets. The rich get richer. In our prosperity, the United States has gone on a buying binge, importing goods from all over the globe at distressed prices. Our trade deficit now exceeds a record $20 billion per month, and grows larger every month. It's U.S. imports that keep the world economy afloat, so the United States' economy must be kept strong, at least until the world recovers. (This will not happen until after Rome takes charge following the close of the Gentile dispensation). Unfortunately, distressed prices from abroad have deluded most Americans into thinking there is no inflation. Our misunderstanding of inflation is at the root of our looming financial crisis. The unconstitutional Federal Reserve System and fractional reserve banking magically creates credit, also known as debt, out of thin air. The problem is that a system built on a foundation of debt can exist only so long as the people maintain confidence. If confidence waivers the debt bubble collapses causing the opposite condition -- deflation. Because of the massive debt structure in the world, deflation must be avoided at all costs. In a monetary system based on debt, everyone's assets are really someone else's IOUs. In a depression no one can pay off his IOUs. But, deflation is exactly what's happening as world markets decline! To offset deflation overseas US markets are being inflated massively to keep the world solvent. The FED is continually avoiding near disaster. And bankers cannot run the printing presses nonstop without rekindling the perception of inflation. Perception creates it's own reality. Once the fear of inflation is ignited the whole credit bubble comes under attack and confidence is undermined. Inflation fear drives interest rates up, bond prices down. Bonds are the foundation for America's house of cards. Their entire monetary and financial system is built on a foundation of debt. The world debt structure has grown well in excess of $100 trillion, and that doesn't include derivatives. All debt instruments have a maturity date in which they must either be repaid or renewed. Literally trillions of dollars of debt instruments mature each year and must be rolled over. This becomes more and more difficult as interest rates rise and bond values decline. If not stopped immediately the process will veer out of control, shutting down economic growth, collapsing the stock market bubble, and triggering a panic stampede out of all paper assets. Make no mistake; the unravelling process has already begun in earnest. Inflationary fears have driven long-term rates above 6 percent and the bond price index has dropped to the lowest level since October 1997. Monetary authorities now face the challenge of restoring confidence before it wrecks the whole system. Inflationary fears must be calmed immediately! Anything that undermines confidence must be attacked immediately and with a vengeance. This explains the propaganda blitz to calm Y2k fears and depress gold prices. Both represent an immediate threat to confidence and therefore had to be dealt with severely. As Jim Lord explains, U.S. banks have only $3 for every $250 on deposit. Cash withdrawals in preparation for a possible Y2K meltdown pose an immediate threat to bank solvency. So in typical bureaucratic fashion, the truth has to be compromised to protect people from themselves. Lies and cover-ups spew forth as the establishment media acts to convince people that Y2K is no longer a threat. If anything, the problem is greater than most people think simply because, regardless of the technical magnitude of the problem, Y2K is a very sharp pin that will prick the veil of confidence that holds a fragile banking system together. Gold Is A Threat to the Financial System While a bank run on cash threatens solvency in the banking system, gold threatens the system itself. Remember, gold is the only "real money" that historically has provided the backing for all legitimate currencies. It was only in the last 75 years or so that international bankers, led by the Rothschilds, infiltrated western governments to remove the gold backing to all currencies. (And the Rothschilds never sell or physically loan their own gold). Despite all attempts to eradicate gold as the monetary standard, gold is and always will be the money of last resort. Whenever confidence waivers people will stampede out of paper assets and seek the refuge of gold, silver and other tangible assets. There's just not sufficient gold for sale which is why the elite have made you privatise public assets like essential utilities for them to purchase in exchange for paper money backed by psychology. Because gold tends to rise as monetary fears increase, the perpetrators of this fraudulent system are very sensitive to the price of gold and will do anything necessary to artificially hold the price down. The larger the credit system gets the more critical the problem, since it takes a smaller and smaller fraction of flight to cripple the system and trigger a panic. For example, in today's world, just one percent of the money in the system would translate into well over a trillion dollars. Do you think there is a trillion dollars worth of gold anywhere in the world to meet this potential demand? There isn't! In fact, when one man by the name of Warren Buffett purchased 20 percent of the world's annual silver production with less than $1 billion, he drove the price of silver from $4.60/oz to over $7/oz. What would happen if a $1000 billion...a trillion...tried to enter the tangible asset market? Do you see their predicament. They must do whatever is necessary to make sure gold never gains any upward momentum. The Gold Lease Time Bomb International bankers have been struggling for years to hold gold and silver prices down, creating their own monster in the process. In the early 80's, central banks initiated a program whereby they leased gold to large institutions who in turn sold it into the open market to raise capital. Mining companies use this technique to forward sell future production, but the giant mutual funds used the proceeds to invest in financial markets. Do you see the problem? As discussed in a previous <http://www.biblebelievers.org.au/nl080.htmNewsletter, the sale of borrowed gold suppressed prices temporarily, but has created a short position that must eventually be repaid. It is estimated the short position may exceed 14 thousand tons -- over 5 years production! This amount of gold is not available. So the bankers must manipulate the price of gold in every conceivable way to put off the day of reckoning. Any rise in gold prices will trigger a massive squeeze to cover short positions! The threat of gold sales by the IMF and the Bank of Switzerland (possibly 1300 tons) plus auctions by the Bank of England (415 tons) is an act of desperation. The last time this happened was in November 1978 when Jimmy Carter announced gold auctions just prior to gold prices exploding to over $870/oz. The threat of auctions was mostly hype then, and it's mostly hype now. But it didn't stop the panic then and it certainly won't stop it now. When the monetary meltdown accelerates, prices will expand and supply will dry up overnight. The collapse of this Ponzi scheme we call a monetary system is part of the International Bankster's long-term plan to force the world to accept a "World Central Bank." David Rockefeller said, "given the right crisis the world will accept our NWO." But the timing must be right. Rising interest rates or a panic flight out of paper cannot be allowed to be the perceived cause of the crisis. That would expose their fraud. I believe the "right crisis" they need is Y2K. What a perfect cover for their coup! After all, they can exclaim, "Everything was wonderful until the awful Y2K crisis came along." The deeper you explore the coming crisis the more overwhelming it seems. The natural tendency is to stick your head in the sand and pretend the problem will go away. This is why so many people believe the propaganda. As good stewards we are called to seek the truth and do our best to prepare for ourselves and for our families. As we attempt to do so, we come to a very important conclusion: We can't do this in our own understanding. Our only hope is to turn to the "saving grace" of Jesus Christ and in doing that we will find the peace for which we seek. (Ed. Yardeni was on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before becoming the Chief Economist at Deutsche Morgan Grenfeld -- <http://www.yourdon.comhttp://www.yourdon.com). turbohawg (11/16/99; 8:15:15MDT - Msg ID:19183) ORO That graph was updated in his last issue ... as you've probably discovered, it's not still up on his website. He does update the graphs on his website weekly, so maybe he'll include that one next Monday, although the last time he posted it on-line it was about 2 months after he published it in his newsletter. The new Market Analyst will be out this weekend (every 3 weeks.)Thanks RossL for passing on the link. RossL (11/16/99; 7:00:47MDT - Msg ID:19182) ORO Comment on your Msg ID:19168Your market bubble creation and feed forward mechanisms are well described, but perhaps you could expand on the stock market bubble unwinding process. Or maybe just add a film clip of a building implosion. <grin> Seriously, though, some analysts have remarked that the unwinding of the Japanese stock market bubble has been extended and made worse by the Japanese central bank by not allowing big players to fail. SteveH (11/16/99; 6:20:01MDT - Msg ID:19181) good example of inflation manifested in the stock market www.kitco.com repost:Date: Tue Nov 16 1999 02:11EJ (the dollar will be as an Internet stock) ID#23066:Copyright © 1999 EJ/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedToday, you can buy a $146,000 house with 2000 shares of Amazon.com. Let's say there's a serious recession and the market collapses. You will need 120,000 shares of Amazon.com to buy the same house. The price of the house appears to have gone up, but actually the medium of exchange has lost value. The demand for Amazon.com stock has fallen so the stock is worth less than before. Similarly, demand for dollars in the world will fall in propotion to the fall in the return on dollar denominated assets. Lots of supply, little demand. Like the Amazon.com stock, falling demand for the dollar may cause it to lose, say, 50% of its current buying power. So now you need $292,000 to buy the same house. The Fed can raise interest rates to try to keep the dollar supply lower, but that won't help the depressed economy any, and that's why dollar got hammered in the first place. -EJ SteveH (11/16/99; 5:53:57MDT - Msg ID:19180) ORO www.kitco.com Man, is ORO on a roll or what? Way to go ORO. This from kitco by ORO:Date: Tue Nov 16 1999 07:08ORO (@Reify Puetz was right in feeling the direction) ID#71231:Copyright © 1999 ORO All rights reservedMain point is that the market is a bubble because a mechanism is in place to turn debt into assets, and doing so makes the asset more attractive/valuable, encouraging more debt. Minor bookeeping loopholes left to encourage small cash poor startups make the mature mega leaders continue in their infantile state. Through this loophole, some 1/4 trillion in retirement funds has subsidized Microsoft's battle for market share and dominance as well as others ( Dell comes to mind ) that get to employ the most expensive technical and managerial staff on earth. I think Bill Parish fingers Delloit and Touche as the main brains behind the scene, auditing the Fidelity ( IRAs ) , Pensions, and the major tech companies they invest in to their apparent mutual benefit, putting at risk the retirement of millions and the financial system as a whole. Derivatives meant to protect banks and commercial firms from currency and rate fluctuations assume things that don't happen and have a built in crash mechanism ( downward feed forward machine ) that once started can't be stopped, perhaps even the Fed can't print up enough funds that rapidly to keep this from rolling into disaster. The protection from default on one obligation by the purchase of another just spreads the misery so that no one can get up. Derivatives just increase the risks they are supposed to protect against. They lul the buyer into a sense of security with obligations that can't be realized when needed. Gold, just like Yen and Euros is in a massive carry trade controlled by central bank interest rate settings. That will unwind violently as the densest of gold account holders realizes his account is not gold and will not ever be converted back. ***Dec gold now $293.10.LT Bond yield approaching (and lowering) 5.99%Dec. crude $25.06 ORO (11/16/99; 4:32:01MDT - Msg ID:19179) RossL Of course, the obvious is naturally ignored. Wrote em up with 2 t's.Thanks. RossL (11/16/99; 4:27:47MDT - Msg ID:19178) ORO http://www.investech.com/ James Stack, Investech - in case you haven't figured it out yet... here is the url <grin> nickel62 (11/16/99; 1:39:47MDT - Msg ID:19177) NY Times story from Sept. 1994 Dow at 3150 gold at 395 A PEEK BEHIND THE CURTAIN, TOTO! Fed Fears a Market Bubble If It Lowers Interest Rates ~ By STEVEN GREENHOUSE SPecibi 10 The Ne- York Times WASHINGTON, Sept. 35 - Seeking to forestall pressures to cut interest rates to lift the still-sluggish econ- omy, several Federal Reserve offi. cia)s have put forward a new - andsurprising - reason why it would be unwise to lower rates: It could en- courage a speculative bubble in stocks and bonds. In interviews thisweek, two central bank officials voiced fearsthat lower rates could cause runaway invest- ment that would push financial mar- kets to unjustifiable levels, setting the stage for an ineviiable plunge. - David W. Mullins Jr., theFederal Reserve's vice ch2irman, and LFw. rence B. Lindsey, a Fed governor, suggested that -,he central bank need- ed to help prevent a replay of Japan's speculative bubble andsubsequent slump. In the late 19SO's, low interest rates there fueled a huge rise in stock and real esia-,e prices. When that bubble burst, Japan slid into its cur. rent deep slump. Mlr.Mullins said, "71ulal's one rea- son to be warv of being more accom- modative," tl@Et is 10 say, of cutting rates further. . Mr. Mullins, who :s widely viewed as the Fed's mcst iniluentialmember after its chairman, A..,2n Greenspan, was ouick to add that America's ne2r-r@cord slock and bond prices did not now appear to be inflated. In his view, stock and bond leve:sare C041- sistent wl"Lh the recent decline ill in- flation and the prospect of moderate economic gro..k-zh. Lower inflation pushes up ,he bond market by nnaking a f:xed-incomeinvestment more valuable, and it also helps drive up s,,ock prices Jor sev. eral reasons: for instance, it in- creases the chances of hi2her corpo- rate profits and it encoUrazes bankdepositors to shift their rnonev into ihe stock mar@,et. Nonetheless, mir. Mullins said, "Some people are concerned about the possjbflit@, that excess liquidity willcreate imbalance, such as a bub. bl.c in asset prices." .-The concern at the Fed seems to be that Strong growill ill Sonle measures of the money supply, fucled in part by thelowest interest rates ill two dec. adcs, could create speculative A renzy. .. Early last year, many economists urged the red to cut rates 10 spur 111C, economy. Long-torin intcrcst r,11C.,;have, indeed, co!-,JC down @41arply since then, but Oic Federal Rcscl,\,c has not adjusted short-icrnn rates since Sept. 4, ]K12, ninking it one of Ihe longest periods that the Fod has leftrates unchanged. The pressures oil the Fed to cut rates lai-rcl. N, abated last wintOl' When econornic growth picked up. . But with growth at a meager 1.3 percent in the first half and inflation slowing in recent months, a growing number of economists, including PaulSamuelson of the Massachusetts In- stitute of Technology, are again urg- ing the Federal Reserve to cut its short-term rates. Although Administration officials would probably like the Fed lo lower rates, they have not put pressure on the central bank, knowing that their pleas would be ignored. Fed Seems Unfazed Although long-term rates shot up I@is week on Tuesday's report that consumer prices rose by three-tcnths of I percent last month - slightly more than expected -Fcdcral Rc- serve officials hardly secnied fazed. . "It's statistically in line %vith recent experiencc," Mr. Lindsey said. "It isn't bad. but it could be better." : The central bankers disputed [lie President's economic advisers, who warned Oiis week against raising rates any linic soon in light of the recent slowdown in grow1h and infla- tion. -Speaking about the current short- term interest rates of 3 percent, Mr. Lindsey said, "I'd call them accom- modative." In his view, rates are low enough to support steady growili. Echoing Mr. Greenspan's Congrcs- sional testimony in July, Mr. Mullins and Mr. Lindsey seemed to lay the groundwork for a rate increase, not tomorrow or the next week, but incoming months. In the Bully Pulpit ,.- When price increase suddenly picked up last winter, Mr. Lindsey -usod his bully pulpit to warn that the Fed would not let inflationary expec- tattions get out ofhand. This week, however, Mjr. Lindsey appeared in no r1ish to raise rates because inflation. has simmered down since last winter and growth rernains lackluster. The tenor of Mr. Mullins's rennarks was that an 'inicrest rate increase \@as inevitable, but probably not soon. He cautioned that real short-tcrm in- tcrest rates - the interest rate Minus theinflation rate - have been at zero or negative in recent months. At such tinics in the past, -111C results haven't been pleasant at all," he said. "That happened in the 1970's, 3nd was followed by a period of rapid In flat ion." In an interview this week, Alan Blinder, a mernber of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, said there wis no need for the Fed to consider raising rates. Speaking about realinterest rates, he said, "I think you can siay pretty ricar zero for a long period of tinic. Zero short- term rates are not hislorically aber- rtnt." 25 Surprise at Fed Case , Other economists expressed sur- prise at the case the Fed officials Were making for higher rates. David M. Jones, chief economist for Aubrey G. Lanston &Company, a New York brokerage firm, said he was sur- iiiised that Fed officials were so con- cerned that low rates could produce a speculative boom. He said low rates ,A,ere helping toachieve one of the Fed's main goals: strengthening bank and corporate balance sheets. Last May, the Federal Reserve's main policy-making committee effec- tively voted to raise rates if inflation did not simmer down. But with infla- tion down appreciably over the last sixmonths, some economists predict that at its meeting next Tuesday, the committee will adopt a neutral slance, meaning it won't raise or low- er rates any time soon. Some econo- mistsargue that it will maintain a bias twA,ard higher rates mainly to show it will hang tough against infla- tion. ORO (11/16/99; 1:31:47MDT - Msg ID:19176) turbo nicht kosher Investech Do you have their URL? ORO (11/16/99; 1:29:24MDT - Msg ID:19175) THX 1138 - Lucas Will look for it at vid store. Thanks for suggestion. turbohawg (11/16/99; 1:28:25MDT - Msg ID:19174) Jim Stack Catching up on the latest InvesTech Market Analyst (from 2 weeks ago) ... a couple of quickies ... remember the graph he posted on his web site a while back showing that net foreign purchases of Treasuries had stopped ?? Well, it's not getting any better ..._________________One factor, again not under Federal Reserve control, is how foreign investors view our bonds. As we expected, the huge $400 billion+ influx of foreign capital into our bond market in recent years has turned negative in the past two months. In short, the liquidity which helped fuel Wall Street's valuation bubble is starting to reverse....What are the chances of an old-fashioned liquidity crisis? Probably a lot higher than we think, and definitely rising. The FDIC bank-deposit insurance fund is racking up the biggest losses since the S&L Crisis of the early 90's. Corporate defaults are headed toward their worst year since the 1991 recession. And both consumer and corporate debt loads keep rising to record levels. Exemplary of the urge-to-splurge, is the new record in margin debt last month (money borrowed to purchase stocks on margin). At least 1/3 to 1/2 of that $179 billion will have to be unwound in a bear market._____________________Jim, are you suggesting that this isn't *really* a New Era ?? Get outta here ... THX-1138 (11/16/99; 1:17:40MDT - Msg ID:19173) ORO Thanks. I never heard of that before.If you didn't know, I took my handle from George Lucus' first movie. Great flick.A movie about forced consumerism and one man's quest to escape government control.THX-1138 ORO (11/16/99; 0:48:37MDT - Msg ID:19172) My 19168-9 - comments This is still a work in progress and needs much revision, but I thought it would be ready for some comments, particularly on the matter of bubble definition and characterization on both conceptual and matters of presentation. Summary to be put together when I have a chance. ORO (11/16/99; 0:33:03MDT - Msg ID:19171) THX 1138 Forever ago, you asked what is a Haffler. Hafler is an electronics engineer and the X proprietor of the company that bears his name. He produced a THX certified power amplifier some umpteen years ago, one of the first in audiophile land.For some reason your handle rang that bell. Can't say why. Click Here to view yesterday's discussion.
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