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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/15/2006
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

MarkeTalk (1/15/06; 23:53:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 140509)
Goldilox--Monday Market
Monday is Martin Luther King Day, a legal holiday here in the United States, which means that all government functions, banks, and markets are closed. Non-US markets will be operating as usual unless there is a legal holiday which just happens to coincide with our MLK Day.

Goldilox (1/15/06; 23:03:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 140508)
Anglo American begins huge demerger
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,17832216%255E643,00.html
With other mega-hedgers consolidating, does anyone have any relevant thoughts on this apparent disassembling of AA?

Goldilox (1/15/06; 22:59:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 140507)
Monday market
Is the Comix operating over the MLK holiday, or just non-US markets?

Smeagol (1/15/06; 21:44:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 140506)
Timelines and price-lines
We agrees with Ssir Goldilox... it almosst seems as if 1,2, and 3 are bunching up and will ssoon be jockeying for position.

We are curious to ssee whether there will be another "six-dollar notch" Monday, hmmm? We have noticed that Dollar-treats are liked less and less effect by the Houndses lately! (cackle)

S.

Goldilox (1/15/06; 21:07:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 140505)
Mixed metaphor
OK, how about "turn Gandalf's waterfall into a full on bursting dam!"

There. That's better!

Goldilox (1/15/06; 21:04:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 140504)
Timeline
@ Contarian,

I love your timeline as much now as when you first posted it, but I think numbers 3 & 2 are quite further along than you suggest. Granted they are not overnight changes, but we're seeing eveidence of them all the same.

I.e., Japan has been printing Yen like newsprint for a while now.

Just MHO!

Goldilox (1/15/06; 20:59:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 140503)
Liberty Head's post
@ White Hills,

On the very surface, I would tend to agree with your analysis of LH's post, but your response is just as simplistic.

LH's analysis of the government spending, although still tangential to most Boob-tube addicted John Q's, is a very "critical part" of the problem. One numerical analysis posted last week demonstrated that monetary inflation has logged 28% increase in the last six months alone, suggesting that the BLS BS and FED obfuscation are much more ignominious than the silly political "whodunnits" clogging the airwaves.

Why so important, you ask? Because the only thing backing the US dollar is "full faith and credit" in the US gubmint, whose broad stroke actions are igniting further worldwide distrust on a daily basis.

Without venturing into the politics of this, when dollar "investors" lose faith and look elsewhere to bolster their wealth, the dollar loses it "hypothetical value," and this paradigm shift will possibly turn Gandalf's waterfall in to a full-on avalanche.

overton (1/15/06; 20:39:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 140502)
jim grant on bernake
1/13/06: "Market Monitor"- James Grant, editor of "Grant`s Interest Rate Observer"

PAUL KANGAS: My guest "market monitor" this week is James Grant, editor of the widely followed publication, "Grant`s Interest Rate Observer" and welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Jim.

JAMES GRANT, EDITOR, "GRANT`S INTEREST RATE OBSERVER": Thank you, Paul, nice to be here.

KANGAS: Are you one of the ever growing crowd of analysts who believe the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its measured interest rate increases?

GRANT: Gosh, I guess I am. I didn`t realize it was that big a crowd but, yes, I am of that multitude. I think that the next increase could well be the last.

KANGAS: That would put us under 5 percent then for the Fed funds rate.

GRANT: It would indeed; it would take us to 4.5 percent.

KANGAS: Are you saying that the Fed sees enough figures on the economy that it`s slowing enough to they don`t want to raise rates anymore. Is that the reason?

GRANT: Well, hear I borrow from the excellent Paul Casrio (ph) of Northern Trust Company. The Fed set out to raise the funds rate to a more normal level, more normal than, say, 1 percent. It has done that. It set out to forestall inflation and to dampen inflationary expectations and by some measures it has done that. It set out to dampen the speculation in the housing market and it has done that as well. It doesn`t want to precipitate a recession and so much of this economy is so dependent upon housing that if it were to tighten further it just might do that. So it seems to me that the Fed is very close to being finished.

KANGAS: Fair enough. Now, Jim, give us your assessment of incoming Fed chief Ben Bernanke and how he might compare with Alan Greenspan.

GRANT: He is a very smart fellow, Mr. Bernanke. He is however -- he is beset by the characteristic lack of imagination of the true intellectual which is that he believes that he can control events rather than being controlled by them. He is really in the price-fixing business. The Fed itself is a price-fixing agency. It set this rate called the Fed funds rate. Now, we have markets the world over that discover prices and interest rates in the case of central banks. Central banks set the rates. Mr. Bernanke is very smart, but he`s not smart enough to be a successful long-term price controller. Nobody is.

KANGAS: OK. You think the market should set the rates, as simple as that?

GRANT: I do.

KANGAS: OK. Now recently we experienced a few brief cases of an inverted yield curve. That`s when short term rates are a bit higher than long term and a lot of economists believe such an inversion is a signal of oncoming recession. Do you subscribe to that theory?

GRANT: Sometimes such an alignment of interest rates does presage a recession. However, in this case, the alignment was not really inverted, that is to say short rates were about even with long rates and it was torturing this model to say that there was a so-called inversion. So, no, I don`t think that the yield curve is saying that.

KANGAS: It`s not a signal of an oncoming recession as far as you`re concerned?

GRANT: No, it is not.

KANGAS: OK. On your list visit with us in early March of last year, you recommended two securities and Korea fund up 36.8 percent and Korea electric power up 43.3 percent, two great calls, Jim, and I compliment you. Are you still with them?

GRANT: God, did I say that?

KANGAS: Yes, you did.

GRANT: Yes.

KANGAS: OK, stay with it. You also said stay with golds from your previous visit with us like Toqueville and First Eagle and Newmont Mining and they`re way much, much much higher than they were last March so you`ve done very well. How about some new suggestions?

GRANT: Well, my first idea, Paul is a mutual fund called Third Avenue Value Fund. It`s run by the eminent Martin Whitman, a great value investor of long standing. And this fund specializes in buying cheap and safe securities. Marty wants to buy equities at a price below what he calls readily ascertainable net asset values.

KANGAS: All right, we weren`t able to get a chart on it, but it trades in the high 50s. I can tell you that much and we`ll get a correct figure on that early next week. We have time for one more. We just have a few second left.

GRANT: Japan, which I have a personal interest, as indeed I do with Marty`s fund. Japan, I think, is in the beginnings of a terrific bull market. Things are going right where they have been going very wrong.

KANGAS: And do you own these securities?

GRANT: I do.

KANGAS: OK. Great. Jim, I want to thank you very much for sharing your insights with us.

GRANT: Thank you, Paul.

KANGAS: My guest, Jim Grant of "Grant`s Interest Rate Observer."




Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2005 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.



1/13/06: "Commentary"-Fame Vs. Brain

JEFF YASTINE: Finally tonight, a new poll shows kids in Britain would rather be famous than brainy. The survey by Britain`s learning and skills council shows one in 10 young Britons would quit school to become the next tabloid star. The Brits have long been obsessed with celebrities -- so have Americans -- and the data shows a growing number of children are more interested in becoming rich and famous than getting a good education and Paul, 9 percent of those surveyed thought fame was a great way to earn money without skills and without qualifications.

KANGAS: The same skills and qualifications would probably keep them from losing all that money.



Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2005 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.








OvS (1/15/06; 20:26:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 140501)
Belgian
Why is the Oppenheimer family
eager to sell Anglo Gold? OvS

YGM (1/15/06; 19:58:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 140500)
Smeagol...other halls
are full of instant gratification seekers. It seems to be the focus of most of our humans. Not so with Smeagol, Hobbits, Giants, Wizards & the odd old bush man miner. The winning of the Gold Ring is patience and vision, coupled with a talent for finding a trail thru the wilderness. The speakers we have and have had in this great hall have been excellent trail blazers.

Smeagol (1/15/06; 18:55:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 140498)
Open eyes are as rare as It...

ssss...we have been reading... and ssneaking into forums at other casstles and lisstening... watching the chart-makers draw... and the analysts figuring...and looking for more in regards to the revaluation of It... for quite ssome time, O yess, precious.

We are quite amazed, at how little is ssaid outside these walls about It in this regard, and it appears that very few sseem to know about it. And if that is any indication... out of the very tiny fraction of people online that are even interested in It, only a very tiny fracton of those know about the MTM plan? After all these years?

As a well-resspected Wizard around here might ssay... Wowsers!

S.

contrarian (1/15/06; 18:52:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 140497)
Update on a past posting--a roadmap
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/2320059/default.html
This posting goes back a few years, and lays out a roadmap that so far seems pretty accurate, although the end point is off, having been forestalled. I would only update it by saying perhaps we're now, with what will happen in March with Iran oil bourse, about to enter into step 2, but perhaps others might have some input.

specie-man (9/23/05; 00:23:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 136333)
A report on my predictions...
Greetings All,

I have occasionally lurked here over the last year or so, but I've not posted, obviously. I've been passing the time buying and selling coins (some bullion, but mostly the "collector" type coins).

Well, here it is Autumn, 2005.
I thought it would be interesting to dredge up my old predictions from almost two years ago, as posted here in November, 2003 under the title "The Fall of 2005".

I got a number of things only part-way right, and some things wrong. But some things I got really right - especially #2 in the "countdown". Here is the original post:


Gold Price Countdown - the Fall of 2005 A Speculation By "specie-man" - 10 November, 2003

In 1997, a mysterious individual began a series of anonymous postings on gold-related internet bulletin boards. This person, and their associate, seemed to have inside knowledge of world gold dealings. The information they relayed indicated, in a somewhat cryptic way, that there were two completely different gold markets in existence.

One of those markets is the paper gold market that we all see (COMEX) - a market who's hidden purpose is to suppress the price of gold and to generally manipulate the market in favor of commercial (short) entities, at the expense of speculative (long) entities.

The other hidden market was larger, and traded in physical gold only - at prices far higher than the paper gold market. As the theory goes, this market was the vehicle for transferring large quantities of gold to rich oil-producing countries. This arrangement was secretly agreed upon by banks and governments, so that in return, the price of oil (as measured in US dollars) would remain stable even during the economic boom years of the late 1990s. This was at the core of the so-called "strong dollar policy", which the US Government frequently mentions but never seems to be able to explain.

The two markets worked together such that the paper gold market would effectively siphon off world gold supply and production at reduced prices, and deliver it to the secondary "hidden" market at a profit. Why would the large buyers acquire gold on this hidden market, rather than buying contracts for future delivery for lower prices in the paper market ? Because it would have been impossible to purchase the desired quantities of physical metal on the limited paper market, and any attempt to do so would send the price of gold much higher on both markets, possibly destroying the paper market and ending the price suppression of gold. This would cut off their supply of relatively cheap gold. Perhaps the intentions of these major buyers are to first obtain large quantities of gold, and then go to the paper market to drive up the price.

The individuals responsible for bringing this information to light predicted that at some point, the world price of gold would be revised sharply higher (by orders of magnitude) in conjunction with a move by oil-producing nations to officially reduce their intake of US dollars and increase their intake of other currencies and gold. This monstrous gold price increase would signal the beginning of a new world order. That prediction was made around 1998, possibly to occur in the 1998-1999 time frame.

These individuals correctly predicted a badly-faltering stock market and economic malaise. But now, four years later, their predictions about a rapid gold re-pricing event have not taken place. Gold has increased in price significantly in the last four years, but the rise has been relatively gradual. Gold bugs are still waiting for that big event. Will it come and, if so, when ?

Before any major gold price upheaval (increase) can occur, certain conditions must first exist. Some have already occurred, and others are developing. Watching the progress of these conditions will be like watching a rocket launch count-down ! Those who are watching will know when their last chance will be to jump on board before lift off. Here is the count-down as towards an explosion in the price of gold (as a result of a crashing US Dollar):

12. Rapid expansion of world-wide credit (debt).

11. Stock market declines.

10. US government, state/local governments, corporations, and households go much deeper in debt.

9. US trade deficit expands relentlessly.

8. The US dollar starts declining in value relative to other world currencies.

7. Long-term interest rates increase relative to short-term interest rates, bond market declines.

6. Housing prices level-off and start declining in some areas.

5. Other (Asian) countries counter the falling US dollar by working to devalue their own currencies.

4. Gold starts rising in price relative to all major world currencies, including the Swiss Franc.

<===== WE ARE HERE !

3.
Inflation/stagflation starts taking hold in Japan, China, and other countries that have a large trade surplus with the US. Bad debts are monetized en-masse (paid off by "printing" large quantities of the local currencies). This is highly inflationary. To forestall hyper-inflation, Asian central banks will be forced to cash in some of their dollar reserves to bail out large debtors (commercial banks, etc.). This will bring an end to the "strong dollar" policies of those governments. Japan, for example, will no longer print and dump as much Yen on the market and buy dollars to weaken the Yen relative to the Dollar.

2.
Consumption in foreign (especially Asian) economies starts growing more rapidly and oil-producing nations realize that they will no longer have to rely as much on the US market to sell their oil. At that point they won't have to worry about how much oil the US consumes (or how much a barrel of oil costs in US dollars). Due to the world-wide glut of declining-value US dollars, and a revulsion for US foreign policies, some oil-producing nations begin switching their official oil pricing currency from US dollars to another currency and/or gold.

1.
The paper gold market (COMEX) shows a large increase in speculative long positions. The long speculators have been trounced many times over the years by the commercial (short) traders. This time, however, the ranks of the long speculators will grow and grow. They will hold firm in the face of the commercial shorting onslaught, as if being commanded by General Stonewall Jackson himself. The commercial shorts will break and run as people world-wide attempt to take delivery of gold. Some major financial institutions will fail as a result.

0. Blast-Off !
Foreign countries no longer have a need for the excessive amounts of US dollar assets (US Treasury bonds) that they hold because it becomes increasingly difficult to purchase oil (and/or gold) with them. Foreign governments do not buy and hold US Treasury bonds out of the goodness of their hearts. The second that they no longer have the need or ability to hold and acquire those assets, or the instant they perceive that their ability to exchange them for something useful is diminishing, they will dump them for something else. A world-wide "crash" in the US dollar will result, leading to a world-wide revulsion of anything and everything US dollar, much higher US interest rates, a severe case of hyper-"stagflation", and higher prices for all tangible assets. The derivative pyramid will crumble. The US dollar will become the "laughing stock" of world currencies - akin to some of the weak currencies of the Central American and South American regions. All this occurs just as the first wave of American "baby doomers" are scheduled to retire. Life will go on in the US and it won't be all bad, but it will be very different and difficult.


Right now, the countdown is at 3 and counting. Many of these events have been (and will be) occurring concurrently. What is still lacking is significant world-wide wage inflation (but world-wide commodity prices are now escalating). When you hear the phrase "wages are increasing to keep up with inflation", you will know that the time is very close. Current indications are that the final prerequisites for a blast-off in the gold price are forming. Hints of inflation in Japan, commodities, and elsewhere are starting to appear, as is talk about doing something about the bad debts in Japan, and bad debts rapidly increasing in China. The US Federal Reserve will aggressively fight any significant downturns in real estate prices. They will do anything, even drop cash from helicopters, to prevent consumers from defaulting on their mortgages en masse. The alternative is just to catastrophic.

The COMEX open interest in gold is now increasing. Battles between the commercials (short) and the speculators (long) have usually ended in favor of the commercial traders. This time, it will end in a stalemate - a moral victory for the longs. The day when the longs totally rout the commercial shorts is coming fairly soon.

History is riddled with unfulfilled predictions of gold's price soaring (and collapsing). Gold is heating up now. But realistically, how long might it be before the price explodes rapidly upwards in an economic upheaval of epic proportions ? That is hard to say. The old saying definitely applies here: "markets always do WHAT they are supposed to, but never WHEN they are supposed to". Such drastic economic realignments are always fought against by governments, and they always take longer than expected.

Should all the current COMEX longs hold firm and a quantity of them demand physical delivery, then the countdown could go to blast-off immediately. Other "wild-card" events (war, terrorist attack, major California earthquake, etc.) could ignite the rocket as well. The countdown process started in the mid 1990s and it should last about ten years. The closer the countdown gets to zero, the faster it will tick. Gold will continue to increase in price during the remainder of the countdown. ! Lacking any unexpected triggers, the countdown will finish during the Fall of 2005.





Smeagol (1/15/06; 18:39:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 140496)
...and all those derivatives


Camel (1/15/06; 18:31:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 140495)
Debt
Don't forget the 2 trillion (?) consumer debt , and the 9 trillion(?) corporate debt, and all the municipal debt. All these dollars must come from somewhere, out of thin air I guess.

White Hills (1/15/06; 18:16:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 140494)
Liberty Head
Who's fault is it anyway, you ask. Your answer is uncontrolled Government spending as the main source of the dollars decline. Your answer is a little simplistic and is only part of the problem. Everything else in your post is political opinion and not relevant to the discussion. White Hills

YGM (1/15/06; 17:50:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 140493)
Thai Gold Rush After the Flood
http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/articles/2006/01/14/thai_floods_leave_behind_gold_rush/
Small reward from disaster.

Smeagol (1/15/06; 16:17:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 140492)
ah, the Irany of it all...
"In addition, US energy-related companies stand to lose out as they will be unable to participate in the bourse due to the longstanding American trade embargo on Iran."

Ssss... is that a trap we hear ssnapping shut ssomewhere?

S.

Liberty Head (1/15/06; 16:14:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 140491)
Who's Fault Is It Anyway

Selling oil for Euros isn't the cause of the dollars decline. One must go to the heart of the issue to find the truth. Uncontrolled spending by the US Gov't is the source of the dollars decline. That's what has oil exporters searching for another currency in the first place.
It is also important to understand the US Gov't is out of control, by the popular will of the US citizens.

Lie to me once, shame, shame on, shame on you. Lie to me 10,000,000 times, won't get fooled again.

Justice does not bypass the ignorant.
Get wise, get gold.

Best Wishes


Caradoc (1/15/06; 15:48:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 140490)
Missed this one last November
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/C1C0C9B3-DDA9-42E2-AE9C-B7CDBA08A6E9.htm
Worth going back to, I think. -Caradoc

Snip follows:

A move away from the dollar and a strengthening of the euro would further benefit Iran as according to a member of Iran's Parliament Development Commission, Mohammad Abasspour, more than half of the country's assets in the Forex Reserve Fund are now euros.



It is primarily the US which stands to lose out from any move away from the petrodollar status quo, it is the world's largest importer of oil and a move away from invoicing oil in dollars to euros will undoubtedly have a negative effect on its economy.
Fewer nations would be willing to hold the dollar in reserve which would cause a significant devaluation and result in the loss seigniorage revenues. In addition, US energy-related companies stand to lose out as they will be unable to participate in the bourse due to the longstanding American trade embargo on Iran.





Smeagol (1/15/06; 15:37:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 140489)
Discernment...

"Since the Washington Agreement of September 1999, other gold analysts have shown that U.S. gold export figures have averaged 100 tons a month. With this much gold leaving the U.S. on an average month,"-

Ssss...we does not SEE the word "Treasury" in thiss line, precious...

-"the allegations are that our government is secretly dumping our nation's gold reserves to prevent the dollar from devaluing..."

...and attaching the government's Gold in the mind of the reader to the previous sstatement via use of a comma, produces an ASSUMPTION in the mind of (ssome) readers... which is misleading.

We has problems too... with the way ssome of the other pointss in the article are presented:

"What kind of growth rate takes $850 in 1980 to $25,000 by 2000? An 18.5% annual rate. Thinking in these terms then, a rise in price to $25,000/oz. does not seem so unrealistic. Those 20 years of gains seem typical of a wise investment. Even Warren Buffet has done better than 18% for his investors for over 20 years. Who says gold does not pay interest?"

Sssssigh... people SSTILL do not get it, concerning It. There is no "growth rate" with It. The purchasing power is the ssame... then, and now. How do you twisst an 18.5% dollar-devaluation into "growth"? Ach! There is no gold-gain here, but there IS a dollar-LOSS.

S.

Flatliner (1/15/06; 15:22:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 140488)
@which Gold?
Sorry, I guess I misunderstood your question. The context comes from 8000 tons that the US labeled ‘deep storage’ that GATA states the US claims to own. That any clearer?

Flatliner (1/15/06; 15:19:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 140487)
@which gold?
The context is Treasury gold, implying 'deep storage' gold.

Smeagol (1/15/06; 15:16:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 140486)
Which Gold?
Ssir Flatliner, did they ssay It was from the Treasury, or exported from the miners/refiners? That might make a LITTLE difference in the tone of the message, precious?

Unless they exported the "deep storage" gold (gold marked for the Treasury that is sstill in the ground (?)).

S.
"It's all fun and games until someone loses a city."

Flatliner (1/15/06; 14:41:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 140485)
Is it March yet?
http://www.bibleprophesy.org/silverismoney/Gold_Price_Under_Differing_Scenarios.html
Its interesting reading different achieves on the net. The link provided appears to have been published on June 24th, 2000. From that article, Jason Hommel stated:

"Since the Washington Agreement of September 1999, other gold analysts have shown that U.S. gold export figures have averaged 100 tons a month. With this much gold leaving the U.S. on an average month, the allegations are that our government is secretly dumping our nation's gold reserves to prevent the dollar from devaluing... This condition cannot last very long, and the price to be paid will be horrible when we realize we have sold our gold for less than 1% of its true worth, and for what? At the most, 8,139 tons of gold being dumped on the world market at a rate of 100 tons a month will last a maximum total of 81 months, or 6.7 years, starting in September, 1999."

Seems to me that, if this has any truth in it, the US really got a lot for its gold stash! 100 tons of gold a month bought the US stable oil and a stable dollar (all relatively speaking).

It also seems odd that 6.7 year (81 months) seems to line up very well with March of this year. … It seemed to slip my mind, but isn't the Fed changing some type of polity in March? Hum… isn't oil looking for a different currency come March?

I'm sure my memory will come back to me. But, for now, I think I'll go back to shaping my golden burial mask.


David Linkley (1/15/06; 12:42:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 140484)
@Belgian
Bravo Belgian,
IMO a great post and on the money. I wonder what will happen to the global economy as the US $$ purchasing power declines another 25 - 30%, interest rates rise significantly and the US consumer can no longer support the world economy. With a looming energy crisis ahead the US is heading into an economic period that will challenge the 30's in size and scope.

Liberty Head (1/15/06; 12:28:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 140483)
Thank You Flatliner

Best Wishes

Flatliner (1/15/06; 12:10:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 140482)
Gold in Euros
http://www.infomine.com/investment/metalschart.asp?c=gold&u=oz&x=eur&r=3y&submit1.x=33&submit1.y=8
Here is three years. I hope this helps.

Liberty Head (1/15/06; 12:07:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 140481)
Euro and Gold

Would someone please post a link to historical charts for POG in Euros? Euro/ounce
Thank You

Best Wishes

Belgian (1/15/06; 10:38:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 140480)
$-IMS versus euro-EMU
Two monetary systems. Two currencies. Two different managements. Two different continents...having an affair with <GOLD>.

Why is it that all goldobservers watch at gold through only one of the monetary systems ? There are more dollar-digits outside the US... WITH NO LEGAL TENDER STATUS...than inside the US borders. Why should the dollars inside the US rule gold for the dollars outside the US ? It is this question that the architects of the other monetary system (EMU) asked themselves and came up with an alternative function for gold ! This escapes ALL gold watchers and commentators. They can only see dollar-gold and not the gold in the other monetary system.

All the (non US) holders of non legal dollar-digits outside US borders have been accumulating goldmetal next to their increasing stash of dollars. This gives us the highest probability as to which kind of gold will surface in the nearby future : Semi fixed, price regulated dollar-gold...or...goldwealth that can be freely marked to the market !

The same evolution happened with the oilpricing. The old dollar-oil-standard versus the new oil valution. The oilprice broke out of a 30 yrs controlled price and set a new ATH. Simply because non US oil is paid with non legal tender dollars.

First, the dollars outside the US borders, were not redeemable in US gold (1971). Now, 35 years later, the amount of dollars outside the US have dramatically increased and no serious fraction of these dollars can flow back within US borders as to have legal tender status. So all these dollars need a good safety belt. They are finding this in gold that will not be controlled by the $-currency for which the holders are protecting themselves.

The same reasoning goes for the owners of all vital energy reserves : They don't want the US-$ to tell them what their energy is worth. And they see the alternative EMU monetary system having gold-reserves that are free to be marked to the market. The only step to be taken is simply change the existing dollar gold market into a free gold market, where the whole planet can value gold and not one single ($)faction...the one single $-goldsize that must fit all.

The gold-revaluation can evolve for quite some time without disturbing global trade and dollar use. The transition, diversification, redistribution, pricing changes (oil/gold) can orderly evolve without having devastating crashes that are in nobody's interest.

Watch the 35 yrs goldprice chart in 2005 dollars and conclude that gold-perceptions will strongly change within the $600-$800 price zone ! Once through this historical barrier, you will see the notion gold-wealth more often in the media.

Goldilox (1/15/06; 09:09:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 140479)
Gold sales up in UAE
http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=121645
snip:

Despite sharp increase in gold prices, customers in the UAE are buying gold as it is still seen as a safe haven from an investment perspective.

"Last year, gold had appreciated by 25 per cent and I believe that we will see another double digit growth this year. This is not just idle speculation. From what we have seen in the market, even with the rise in diamond sales, gold sales have not dropped,'' said Karim Merchant, managing director of Pure Gold, one of the major players in jewellery market.

At present, the price of 10 tola gold in UAE is Dh 7,490, while 24 carat pure gold costs Dh65 per gram and 22 carat gold Dh61 per gram.

According to Dubai Gold and Jewellery Group, this has not discouraged people from investing in gold jewellery in Dubai.

When asked about the buyers of gold in the present scenario, he said: "In terms of market, there is no doubt that customers from the subcontinent have a spiritual connection to gold. They are the biggest buyers when it comes to gold. However, we also see heavy investment in gold by Arabs and buyers from the Middle East. In terms of the market, tourists comprise around 60 to 65 per cent of the buyers."

-Goldilox

Who was that suggested we keep a close eye on Dubai?

Goldilox (1/15/06; 08:47:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 140478)
The Melt Down Ahead
http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm
snip:

To see what's coming, you only need to read a few stories, in the right order, and think through the picture being painted. Because it's a weekend, bear with me for a few minutes, and let me walk you through the highlights, ok?
---
More than a few of us who have been buying gold since the Manufacturers Resource War broke out (with 9/11/2001) have been expecting gold to begin making its "big move". With prices surging past 24-year highs on Friday, this very well could be it. If it is, our inclination is to wait until the Dow and the Price of Gold (POG) are even, then we'll figure out where to deploy both of our dollars next.

I have to agree with one poster over at LeMetropole Cafe who noted that the surge in prices was not directly attributable to Iran tensions. He noted if that was the case, we would have seen oil spike up in a similar meaningful way. It hasn't, so he figures, something else is at work.

What's really going on, as best I can judge, is that the Fed has partially lost control of the money supply (which is why they will stop their weekly confessionals of M-3 in March of this year - it will be too scary for "regular people" to stomach by then. This week's report shows that M-3 has increased by 7.84% compared with year ago levels. It's really worse: The November to December change in M-3 pencils out to an 11.5% annual rate. In simplest terms, the money supply is going nonlinear now. That's why gold is up.

You might be asking what is so frightening about that - we've had bouts of inflation before, so no big deal. Well, not quite. You see in the same period, the amount of M-1 (basically cash in the system) has actually decreased by about 2-10th's of one percent in the same period!.

In other words we have deflation and inflation simultaneously in the money figures. The divergences are staggering. You've got less paper money in hand, yet easy credit - so the purchasing power of cash goes up and the consumers are forced more and more into debt to make ends meet.

It doesn't take a rocket surgeon to figure out that this condition in the economy can't go on forever. Thus, later this weekend, when the new web bot run (future forecasting techniques of www.halfpasthuman.com based on linguistic shifts on the internet which seem to precede major social/psychological turnings points, such as 9/11, the anthrax attack, and others) we expect that a very large unexpected event will seen happening between now and April 1st.

Why? Because it's clear to the international banksters that their game is falling apart and they need an "event" of some kind in order to maintain their cover and remain in functional control of the country through their shadow government proxies. Care to take a guess what that will be?

Let me help you...

-Goldilox

In his inimitable style, George reminds us that "day-to-day" events are no more than mere entertainment to divert us from "the man behind the curtain."

Also read his missive on how poor a public school education has become, because it really sets the stage for getting John Q. Jr. to "go anywhere and do anything" at the drop of an "ideological" hat.

There hasn't been a war yet that hasn't included "culling the herd" as a major component. When unemployment is just too high (not the BLS "official release" figure, but the real one, includng the "under-utilized"), the solution was best described by Tom Paxton in his 1966 ditty "Letter from LBJ":

"I got a letter from LBJ
It said this is your lucky day
It's time to put your khaki trousers on
Though it may seem very queer
We've got no jobs to give you here
So we are sending you to Viet Nam"

The strains on $-IMS hegemony are appearing on mulitple fronts - political, economic, and resources, not to mention personal.

Belgian (1/15/06; 05:28:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 140477)
Gold does not like nervousness > Ned
This old mantra is "definitely" passé, Ned !!! Forget about this cultivated gold(price) axioma. But if you wish to continue seeing what you want to see...please feel free to do so.
Gold is on Another road and NOT disturbed anymore by what was supposed to move the goldprice in the old days.
Concrete : Iran or no Iran...will not change anything on the new "fundamentals" on which gold has embarked.
It is not the general public's buying (or selling) that is making (breaking) gold's price-trends !!! It never was.

Gold was priced by those that guardian the monetary system in which gold was incorporated. This has been taken over by those who cornered the physical goldmarket and now work to break the gold contract pricing power. Physical now controls the paper goldpricers. Goldprice bull/bear-rallies, due to whatever event, will be smoothened immediately and not disturb the general "revaluation" trend.

Watch how disciplined the oilprice (revaluation) is behaving, regardless of the global events.



Ned (1/15/06; 05:01:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 140476)
...."the Wide Seas of Discussion"
MK,

On one hand I see the 'Iranian' posts have 'survived' but on the other I see my reference to the search for a "world without Zionism".

The thorny issue of Zionism was of course not the topic of the moment but rather a reference to the Iranian leader's mention of the yet another thorny issue of Middle East conflict, namely Palestine and Israel.

This doubled-edge Iranian sword, namely the oil bourse in the spring and the nuclear ambition charge, is drawing a lot of attention. Even CNN and main stream news outlets mention the supposed ambitions of the U.S./UK & possibly Israeli miltary.

I apologize for approaching the edge of appropriate discussion, this post is meant to get the subject leaning back towards a gold-oriented flavor.

Gold does not like nervousness. This Iranian situation is making it more so day by day. This we watch with bated breath.

Have a golden weekend Sir.

Belgian (1/15/06; 04:28:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 140475)
@Spartacus
Don't worry about, what you call, "implementation". Everything (gold's happening future) is concealed (wrapped) in the notion (concept) of freegold-goldwealth.
The decades of western gold-marginalization process is being stopped and reversed. The concept is so broadly based that it doesn't need implementation. We will simply roll into it. It is exactly this process that hyper confuses all (western) gold observers !

Make no mistake,...the general public has seen the recent gold(price) move ! Soon, the former marginalization of (infla)gold will be over. It simply takes a new ATH for the goldprice to change the "moods" and perceptions. The real content of "wealth" will be restituted through a soft and sweet process.

Forget about all the old gold terminology (media) to describe what is happening to gold.

No military power can stop the ongoing process of physical gold accumulation by those who always had it function in its role as wealth. EMU simply had to provide the "structure" behind the will to revalue gold. Watch the idea of ACU that points in that same direction ! Watch Dubai...the city of gold !

Allow me to repeat a previous remark about the recent Russia/China/Sout African gold-statements : Why should/would they announce the accumulation of gold, when they already know that the physical gold market has been cornered !? They simply wanted to get ONE message across : WE WANT GOLD AS WEALTH !!!

Spartacus (1/15/06; 03:32:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 140474)
Gold/Dollar/Euro
Belgian (1/14/06; 07:24:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 140460)

"A rising goldprice is "positive" for the euro ...short-medium-long term ...and negative for the $-IMS ! The competing currencies, both go after the oil. The essential (fundamental) difference between the two is gold."

I agree.

Belgian (12/19/05; 00:53:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 139466)

"The world's dollar-holders cannot hedge and then the political will to stop this unfunctioning goldmarket, rises. That's the moment that EMU comes up with its alternative...a euro physical gold market, where you can hedge your dollar holdings with functional PHYSICAL GOLD instead of with unfunctional paper gold contracts."

But.... I think We overhere in Europe underestimate what it really takes….politically…. for EMU…. to come up and implement its alternative ....a euro physical gold market.

Thank You for your great independent thinking all these years.



Belgian (1/15/06; 02:16:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 140473)
What is happening with gold !?
After a decade of gold-action, the physical gold market is cornered ! Next job is to break the gold pricing power of the gold contract market. And this is what we are seeing :

During the past 3 decades (1971), physical gold was price by contract gold. This resulted in a gold market that had enough available goldmetal to satisfy the marginal demands.
Now, it is the other way around : The cornered physical goldmarket is systemically breaking the (former) gold contract power !

The final purpose is to pull gold and its management "out" of the infla monetary system and "in" the gold=wealth concept.

It is gold-wealth that is going to say what your credibility is or isn't. That's why gold's link to fiat had to be severed (Duisenberg). That's why Russia/China/Sout Africa/Argentina...made the recent statements : Gold shall not be infla-money anymore, but wealth. And wealthy nations are taken more seriously than poor ones.
All the CB actions of the past decade should be seen against this background.

Infla linked gold paralyses the management of the monetary system. Unlinked Gold Wealth supports the monetary system.

The ongoing gold action is a process that is breaking the goldprice management that had gold incorporated into the monetary system.

The gold contract market will be lured into the goldpricing arena, again and again (cfr. dec.LBMA figures) and be given the illusion that it still can "manage" the goldprice. Then the cornered physical gold market will pop up and break the contract gold positions, resulting in repetitive losses.

Think about it and check it by watching carefully.

Rook (1/15/06; 00:07:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 140472)
.,.
Gandolf, I would shave off some of the ounce of gold, buy whatever property I felt would not immediately make me a target of thieves and murderers, settle back into living off the land, and keep the rest of the gold. If they are into some hyperinflation in zimbabwe, would it be smarter to wait out the crash and sell a little gold then?



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