Gold Today!
ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/15/2003
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
GratefulForGold
(01/15/03; 23:54:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 94560)
Hipplebeck #94474 - Re Jim Sinclair
http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sinclair/vip/2003/0113.htm
Hipplebeck, I'm surprised by this Jim Sinclair link. I've finally had time to read it...was diligently reading along until I came to the Q&A section. Then appeared an abbreviated version of a Q&A that had made the rounds a couple of months ago. The material in the original Q&A was and is alarming (and I saved it somewhere but can't find it now). But someone on the G-E Forum back then pointed out that the respondent's name in the Q&A was, er, rather "curious." The name "Al-Asuquf" (if spelled backwards) was indeed enough to make most people dismiss the entire "interview" as a hoax.
But, since this is on Sinclair's website, I simply don't know what to think!! I would suspect that this Q&A's not getting published may have had more to do with the word play with the guy's name, rather than Sinclair's supposition of it being "due to its highly revealing [inflammatory?] contents." Perhaps Sinclair was just alarmed to find some of his "teachings" being used by supposed Islamic terrorists, I don't know.
Anyway, hoax or not, I thought WHAT was said in the original, longer, Q&A had a lot of validity. If Sinclair was going to refer to it, I wish he'd have published the entire Q&A. Do you have any thoughts?
Black Blade
(01/15/03; 23:28:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 94559)
There's an upside to dollar's downfall
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/134615543_weakdollargood15.html
Snippit:
Since early last year, the dollar has fallen more than 20 percent against the euro, the currency that represents 12 European nations, and about 10 percent vs. the Japanese yen. And foreign-exchange analysts say more weakness could be ahead. Factors that have been undermining the dollar recently include worries about possible war with Iraq and the future course of the U.S. stock market. That's a big switch from just a few years back, when the dollar was considered the most favored currency in the world. Its strength was due in part to the surging U.S. financial markets, which spurred lots of dollar-buying from foreigners looking to invest here.
In addition, the U.S. government supported a "strong dollar" policy through most of the 1990s, so it would continually take steps to bolster the currency. While the Bush administration says it supports a strong dollar, it hasn't taken much action. That might be because a weak dollar isn't so bad right now for our current economic state. It makes U.S. goods less expensive abroad, which can potentially boost demand for our products and services because they may be cheaper than what is manufactured in local foreign markets. And when imports here jump in price, that means U.S. manufacturers don't have to discount as much to compete. That helps their pricing power, which in turn wards off some deflationary risks.
Black Blade: The Fed must weaken the dollar as I see it. The "strong dollar" policy is dead. The prez fired former Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neil who supported this insane policy while the US economy tumbled deeper into recession even as competing currencies fell as well. Of course Gold will respond positively as the dollar weakens.
Black Blade
(01/15/03; 23:08:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 94558)
Re: Galerider, El Gordo, all - Grains, Weather and Energy Supply
I discussed the drought situation this summer and the impact on grain stores. Grain production was down but late season moisture yielded an adequate crop in the heartland for the US. So far there hasn't been much moisture to fill reservoirs this winter and unless we get some moisture we could be looking at further depletions of grain reserves. SE Asia and Australia have had a dismal growing season with drought conditions and this could significantly reduce world grain supply unless conditions improve. The cold US weather has not been accompanied with much snow and unless we get some we could be looking at yet another drought year in the nation's primary growing regions. However, it is still early so hopefully El Ni--o we bring in some moisture.
This summer I discussed the potential for another energy crisis due to the reduced drilling activity and growth of NatGas fired power generation. Wall Street blew off these concerns because of the large storage data. Another problem is that investment financing did not materialize as general mistrust of the energy industry gained momentum in the wake of Enron. The US economy deteriorated so much that energy companies came under pressure with low oil and gas prices while at the same time credit rating agencies downgraded corporate debt. Energy companies were and still are forced to draw on current storage to shore up finances leaving little for exploration and production activities.
There was a lot of praying to the weather gods for another mild winter, however, as I pointed out several months ago – just a normal winter would create havoc with rising energy costs let alone a colder winter. A "perfect storm" of sorts has materialized now as temperatures are much lower than expected and is accompanied by declining oil inventories in the face of the Venezuelan oil workers strike, declining production, and looming war in the Middle East. Existing NatGas production from mature fields is declining fast as well and yet no significant efforts are being made to tackle the problem.
Those who I have talked to in the industry have said is will get much worse for the following reasons: Many energy companies are awaiting the outcome of the proposed "energy policy" that has yet to be voted on and for access to public (and even non-public) lands while the courts, government agencies and environmental groups dicker over various regulations and production methods. Others are awaiting the outcome of litigation and negotiations with some utility commissions over the last energy crisis such as that in California. Some players have expressed an unwillingness to continue doing business in these hostile environs. Also, many in the industry are just fed up and are simply willing to let the energy situation go beyond critical to force the issue to a conclusion.
In short we are going to see this energy crisis go ballistic and crush any possible hope of any economic recovery. It should get quite "interesting".
- Black Blade
Chris Powell
(01/15/03; 22:53:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 94557)
Portugal admits that most of its gold is gone
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1386
Portugal admits that most of its gold is gone,
and it looks like people are coming to claim
the rest:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1386
To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:
gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Chris Powell
(01/15/03; 22:48:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 94556)
Analysts doubt Morgan's denial of gold derivative liability
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1385
Analysts are skeptical of Morgan's dismissal
of its gold derivative liability:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1385
To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:
gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Trojan
(01/15/03; 22:34:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 94555)
From GATA (With Permission)
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Flash! JP Morgan Chase has been compelled by a reporter for a foreign news agency to
answer questions about its gold derivatives, and some financial analysts have responded skeptically to the firm's explanation.
The story below was distributed today by AFX News, a division of the major French news service, Agence France-Presse.
The story wrongly implies that GATA has been spreading "rumors" about Morgan Chase.
Actually, GATA has been spreading only the data on Morgan Chase that is on file at the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the
Currency, and everything GATA has said about the firm is recorded in public in our archive on the Internet here:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/messages
The story's last sentence is obviously some silly misunderstanding, since it asserts that "GATA denies it has a long position on gold." GATA is as long as could be on gold and would be longer still if GATA Chairman Bill Murphy hadn't tried drawing to an inside straight in a poker game at a mining camp near Vancouver last year.
No matter, for the AFX News story is
remarkable simply for its attempt at real journalism. A reporter actually picked up the telephone and tried holding a powerful Wall Street firm to account. More than that, she tested the firm's assertions with financial experts, and quoted them unfavorably about the firm.
As far as GATA knows, this has never been done before. Maybe the financial world can be changed, as GATA has sought to change it. Maybe even the news media can be changed.
Please distribute this story as widely as possible.
It will raise questions and maybe give others some aspirations to journalism.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
* * *
JP Morgan says risk exposure
in gold derivatives less than $10 million
By Anupama Chandrasekaran
AFX News
http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?
Black Blade
(01/15/03; 22:32:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 94554)
Job-Seekers: It's Cold Out There, Baby
http://www.cfo.com/printarticle/0,5317,8663|,00.html
Survey reveals 2003 will be a tough year for the unemployed.
Snippit:
What's the forecast for job searches in the coming year? "Cautiously optimistic," in consultant-speak; lousy, in English. The consultancy in question here is human-resources advisors DBM, which recently released its annual Workforce Predictions Survey for 2003. Apparently, when they say "cautious optimism," they mean really cautious. "Indications are that workforce conditions in 2003 will challenge job seekers, employees, and employers alike," said DBM president Tom Silveri. Specifically, 52 percent of the more than 800 U.S. and Canadian HR executives surveyed anticipate layoffs this year, with one in ten expecting to reduce their workforce by as much as 20 percent.
Black Blade: I know that most of us here have heard it all before that the US economy is in recovery – even a "jobless recovery". The fact is that the economy is in real serious trouble. Many of the media pundits tout the rising unemployment figures as a "lagging indicator". The sad thing is this "lagging indicator" has been lagging for three years running and will continue to lag for several years more. Another quaint remark that I often hear is that the economy and stock markets will get better in the "second half". That's pure BS of course. If anything it will get worse and how much worse is anyone's guess. The next whammy to hit the economy will probably be the collapse of the real estate bubble. The Fed must weaken the dollar and will do so by firing up the printing presses 24/7 as suggested by Greenspan and Bernanke. This will raise interest rates to encourage investment while at the same time raising mortgage rates. The question is whether the Fed is ready to face inflation/stagflation now or try to put it off until later creating a lot more pain either way. I must admit that the PPI data took me by surprise today. Everyone is well aware that costs are rising so the weighting of the index must be biased enough to come up with deflationary looking data. Today the market gave us a gift as speculators sold gold for profits as banks sold gold to lessen the pain on the approach of expiry Friday. This gives us an opportunity to add undervalued precious metals to our portfolios if not already done. The Asians are accumulating in quantity – most notably the Chinese (not just citizens but the central bank too). The fundamental case for Gold is very strong given the likelihood of falling production, economic weakness, falling dollar, and geopolitical concerns. Other than that grab a cold one and watch with amusement as the Lemmings line up next to the boiling cauldron while Wall Street dishes out large servings of Lemming Stew.
Galerider
(01/15/03; 22:13:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 94553)
US WEATHER/BLACK BLADE
Black Blade,
Question.....you were talking about natural gas and how inventories will be reduced. You also touched on future ability to feed the hungry (bone pile growing)...any read on the cold and what it will do to the crop areas for such staples as wheat and corn (i.e. moisture content, crop size). Thanks.
ElGordo
(01/15/03; 22:02:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 94552)
Saddam's Arsenal
http://www.historychannel.com/ontv/index.html
Tonight on History Channel there is a program that some
claim proves Saddam has WMD. I'm on the west coast and
will watch here at 10 PM.
R Powell
(01/15/03; 21:56:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 94551)
More confusion from JPM
Another quote from the article (94543) misetich posted,
"Derivatives are financial instruments that derive their value from another
underlying asset, like gold. The most common derivatives are futures and
options.
"On any given day, JP Morgan's exposure to the gold market including derivatives
is less than 10 million dollars," a bank spokesman told AFX Global Ethics
Monitor."
This is unclear to me as exposure is now being discussed- not notional value. Exposure through derivatives implies almost unlimited gains or losses. Either they are exposed (positioned with derivatives) or they are not. The only way to hold derivative positions with an unbreakable loss limit would be to restrict trading to options only and to the buying only of these options. These are paid for in full upon purchase and can lose no more than this purchase price. Any big brokerage would never trade this way, at least not for long, as they'd have to be not only clairvoyant but awfully lucky to avoid going broke trading like this. This statement above does not make sense. ??
Boy, that was close! I was starting to think I was understanding this whole thing, that a simple statement from the brokerage had cleared the air. I should have known better....
ElGordo
(01/15/03; 21:46:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 94550)
Could get even colder next week
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/headlines.asp?iws=4
Old man winter looks to get meaner.
BB- Yep, looking forward to that nat gas number.
This is an odd El Nino, its not supposed to get this
cold according to experts.
Trapper
(01/15/03; 21:46:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 94549)
Sir Trojan
you asked how some of the Americans on the board viewed Pres. Bushs dealing with N Korea. Well I for one and I voted for GWB don't like it one bit. I just can't see how he can say those nice communist folks are evil. I say he should bring all our troops home right now too. And we would be sure to tell both the north and the south that we won't get involved any more, even if some long range arty falls out of the sky on Seol. But I'm sure all those students who protest our troops really belive that those nice folks up north just want to get along. And I sure would not bother those nice folks by giving them food and oil that the hard working American taxpayers are making a nuisance of themselves providing. I would just "live small" and let them all fend for themselves.
Trojan
(01/15/03; 21:45:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 94548)
Oil About To Explode
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0301/S00055.htm
The Price of Oil could go much higher. Not good for the Economy. It might just drop the US Economy into a Double Dipper.
R Powell
(01/15/03; 21:31:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 94547)
A definition of notional value
Misetich, thanks for the (94543) article. It gives at least one definition of the nefarious "notional value".
JP Morgan Chase has registered 41 bln usd in gold derivative contracts as of the
third quarter last year in its filings with the US Office of the Comptroller of
the Currency. This is the notional value, or the sum of the value of different
contracts of the bank's clients holding different positions, long or short, on
the contracts.
By this definition of "long or short", even small players have huge notional value in the markets. By this definition and figuring the POS at roughly $5.00, the notional value of my current silver positions is over $250,000. My positions are hedged so that I'll profit with a higher price but won't go broke if POG drops a dollar tomorrow. The whole thing is glued together on about $6,000 of margin. It's the NET position that should be considered.
Also, is the bank claiming that they hold these positions for their clients? If so, then as brokers, they probably don't care about prices at all, just commissions. Most commodity brokers are constantly searching for new clients (commissions) as most traders go broke within a year. Hint- I never quit my day job!
Thoughts?
Trojan
(01/15/03; 21:18:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 94546)
A Fantastic Article About Gold - January 16/03
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/bouchard011703.html
Well researched and Well worth reading. It sure looks Great for Gold. $400 here we COME !!!
Trojan
(01/15/03; 20:42:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 94545)
Fannie Mae 52 % Decline in 4TH Quarter Earning
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APiVQgxPiRmFubmll
Write down of Derivatives to 1.88 Billion. New Accounting Rules. Is JP in Trouble ?
Trojan
(01/15/03; 20:36:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 94544)
@ misetich Thanks For the Link Re: JP and GATA
Very Interesting. No Risk Huh :-)
Did you see the news today about Fannie Mae reserving nearly 1 Billion Dollars today Re: Derivatives ? No Risk ? Sure only 10 Million. I got a bridge in Broklyn to sell :-)
misetich
(01/15/03; 20:24:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 94543)
(AFX-Focus) 2003-01-15 23:12 GMT: JP Morgan says risk exposure in gold derivatives less than 10 mln usd
http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?type=news&format=raw&articleid=4556493&action=article
Snip:
NEW YORK (AFX) - JP Morgan Chase, answering charges by a pressure group that it
may be facing excessive risks in the gold market but not disclosing them, said
its exposure to gold including derivatives is less than 10 mln usd.
JP Morgan was responding to allegations by the two-person Gold Anti-Trust Action
Committee (GATA), a pressure group which alleges bullion banks and central banks
are conspiring to rig prices in the gold market.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is now being asked to arbitrate
a long-running spat between JP Morgan and GATA which has generated a steady flow
of conflicting claims, rumors, accusations and denials with few hard facts.
Both sides are calling on the securities regulator to investigate their claims
about the other party. GATA asked the SEC last week to investigate its suspicion
that JP Morgan has a higher risk exposure to fluctuations in the price of gold
than what it has acknowledged publicly.
GATA's letter to the SEC spelling out its allegations followed JP Morgan's
request to the regulator on Jan 3 that it investigate rumors the bank was trying
to keep the price of gold down and covering up losses incurred from the recent
rise in gold prices.
JP Morgan Chase has registered 41 bln usd in gold derivative contracts as of the
third quarter last year in its filings with the US Office of the Comptroller of
the Currency. This is the notional value, or the sum of the value of different
contracts of the bank's clients holding different positions, long or short, on
the contracts.
Derivatives are financial instruments that derive their value from another
underlying asset, like gold. The most common derivatives are futures and
options.
"On any given day, JP Morgan's exposure to the gold market including derivatives
is less than 10 million dollars," a bank spokesman told AFX Global Ethics
Monitor.
"The risk of contracts is held by our clients and we actually don't have any
risk associated in the contracts."
Analysts said that sorting out the conflicting claims comes down to finding out
for sure which contracts JP Morgan holds on gold, and if it is betting the price
of the precious metal will rise or fall -- two facts hard to pin down.
Brock Vandervliet, vice president of equity research at Lehman Brothers said the
amount in gold derivative contracts Morgan Chase has disclosed is not excessive
for a large bank.
However, Vandervliet said the amount is larger than what HSBC and Citibank
reported in the third quarter of last year. HSBC had notional amounts of 14.2
billion dollars in gold derivative contracts while Citibank had 12.9 billion
dollars.
Vandervliet also said that gold is not a major part of JP Morgan's derivatives
business and hence may not be that big a risk.
But analysts agreed the information provided by JP Morgan is not enough to
understand the actual risk involved.
"There are two things that are absolutely critical to know which make it
impossible to conclude anything really powerful," said Vandervliet.
"First, is the net trading position long or short? We don't know. Second, how
much of these contracts are held by JPM versus held for customers supporting a
trading book and therefore not presenting JPM with a material risk. This is a
weakness of the disclosure and makes firm conclusions very difficult."
The dispute between JP Morgan and GATA, which gets funding from several small
gold companies, goes back to late last year when GATA accused the bank of trying
to run down the prices in the gold market.
GATA has in the past also accused the US Federal Reserve Bank, the International
Monetary Fund and other bullion banks like Goldman Sachs of price rigging.
On Jan 6, GATA consultant James Turk wrote to the SEC asking for an inquiry.
"It's about time that we learn the truth regarding JP Morgan Chase's activity in
the gold market, the full extent of its gold exposure, and whether it used gold
loans to fund the so-called 'disguised loans' that it arranged for Enron," Turk
said in the letter to the SEC.
A SEC spokesman said the organization does not comment on investigations,
ongoing or otherwise.
Some analysts are also skeptical of the risk exposure disclosed by JP Morgan.
"They have to divulge only material risk that is a risk large enough to have
impact on the company's assets," said Richard Bove, managing director, Hoefer
and Arnett, a research group specializing in financial companies.
"We accept the amount disclosed as a matter of faith."
GATA disputed the 10 mln usd figure given the amount of gold derivative
contracts booked by JP Morgan, citing the bank's alleged interest in keeping the
price of gold down.
Gold prices are currently at their highest levels in six years and GATA claims
JP Morgan could be losing money at current prices.
Some industry experts are questioning the veracity of GATA's claims.
"I think they (GATA) could have had long positions in gold and are always
complaining when prices go down never up," said Randall Dodd, director of the
Derivatives Study Center, a non-profit group researching on financial markets,
AFX-GEM.
Investors who have a long position in gold derivatives profit when gold prices
go up. GATA denies having a long position on gold.
anupama.chandrasekaran@afxnews.com
*************
Misetich
"The risk of contracts is held by our clients and we actually don't have any risk associated in the contracts."
As we have witnessed in the Enron caper - JP Morgan also believed that forming another entity and disguising loans was also legal and proper
More details are required from JP Morgan
Got gold?
Trojan
(01/15/03; 20:20:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 94542)
A Case Of Attention Budget Deficit Disorder In U.S.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-flan15jan15,0,7084643.story?coll=la%2Dheadlines%2Dbusiness
Sorry, I forgot to post the Link. It is above now.
Trojan
(01/15/03; 20:17:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 94541)
A Case Of Attention Budget Deficit Disorder In U.S.
Looks to me like the Budget Deficit will get to be a big Issue soon. They just raised their Estimates today quite Sharply.
Good for Gold. Bad for the US Dollar. And if the Economy keeps tanking, revenues will go down and the Deficit will increase.
2003 Will indeed be an interesting year in every respect.
Buy Gold......
Cavan Man
(01/15/03; 20:14:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 94540)
sector
Yes, Kimmel and Short were the fall guys. BTW, I picked up a brand new copy of Robert Stinnett's "DAY OF DECEIT" (sorry to say Stinson in the last post) at a flea market in Morgantown WVA not long after I watched an interview of him from the cozy confines of Destin,FL. The book was a buck! Stinnett said he DID NOT write the book to pass judgment on FDR. He simply wanted to know the truth. (period)
sector
(01/15/03; 20:03:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 94539)
@ mikal The Roger Ferguson anthrax letter...
...delivered to the Fed's mail sorting station today
This is pretty significant since it was announced that a second main testing lab confirmed the anthrax results.
A later wire service report issued a negative report on anthrax for a mail depot elsewhere.
IF the powderizing Anthrax matrix and DNA markers sent to the Fed are similar to the original anthrax material then the FBIs "Person of interest" Hatfill is off the hook and some impoverished, cardboard-box-dwelling lawyer is going to be rich. Hatfill himself will be waving his fists on the Nightly News and rightfully so.
The FBI will take yet another huge hit to its investigative credibility and the real culprits will surface again as a source of CIPRO profits. Just in time.
Blair's Cabinet has just opted for another UN vote.
BTW he now invokes the "Conspiracy Theory" to describe those that see oil as the motive for the Iraq War. Imagine that, John LeCarre...as a Conspiracy Theorist!
+++++++++++++++
@CavenMan Yes... lots of people knew about the Japanese codes, just not Kimmel and Short, the patsies.
It got so bad that the radio documents had the DF bearing values [Pointing to the Akagi's position north of Hawaii] physically cut from the forms leaving little square holes.
Like chicken feathers on the muzzle of the fox that denies involvement in the henhouse affair.
Trojan
(01/15/03; 20:01:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 94538)
Here is one of them...
Has someone been sitting on the FBI? 6/11/01
Interview:
GREG PALAST:
The CIA and Saudi Arabia, the Bushes and the Bin Ladens. Did their connections cause America to turn a blind eye to terrorism?
UNNAMED MAN:
There is a hidden agenda at the very highest levels of our government.
JOE TRENTO, (AUTHOR, "SECRET HISTORY OF THE CIA"):
The sad thing is that thousands of Americans had to die needlessly.
PETER ELSNER:
How can it be that the former President of the US and the current President of the US have business dealings with characters that need to be investigated?
PALAST:
In the eight weeks since the attacks, over 1,000 suspects and potential witnesses have been detained. Yet, just days after the hijackers took off from Boston aiming for the Twin Towers, a special charter flight out of the same airport whisked 11 members of Osama Bin Laden's family off to Saudi Arabia. That did not concern the White House.
Their official line is that the Bin Ladens are above suspicion - apart from Osama, the black sheep, who they say hijacked the family name. That's fortunate for the Bush family and the Saudi royal household, whose links with the Bin Ladens could otherwise prove embarrassing. But Newsnight has obtained evidence that the FBI was on the trail of other members of the] Bin Laden family for links to terrorist organisations before and after September 11th.
This document is marked "Secret". Case ID - 199-Eye WF 213 589. 199 is FBI code for case type. 9 would be murder. 65 would be espionage. 199 means national security. WF indicates Washington field office special agents were investigating ABL - because of it's relationship with the World Assembly of Muslim Youth, WAMY - a suspected terrorist organisation. ABL is Abdullah Bin Laden, president and treasurer of WAMY.
This is the sleepy Washington suburb of Falls Church, Virginia where almost every home displays the Stars and Stripes. On this unremarkable street, at 3411 Silver Maple Place, we located the former home of Abdullah and another brother, Omar, also an FBI suspect. It's conveniently close to WAMY. The World Assembly of Muslim Youth is in this building, in a little room in the basement at 5613 Leesburg Pike. And here, just a couple blocks down the road at 5913 Leesburg, is where four of the hijackers that attacked New York and Washington are listed as having lived.
The US Treasury has not frozen WAMY's assets, and when we talked to them, they insisted they are a charity. Yet, just weeks ago, Pakistan expelled WAMY operatives. And India claimed that WAMY was funding an organisation linked to bombings in Kashmir. And the Philippines military has accused WAMY of funding Muslim insurgency. The FBI did look into WAMY, but, for some reason, agents were pulled off the trail.
TRENTO:
The FBI wanted to investigate these guys. This is not something that they didn't want to do - they wanted to, they weren't permitted to.
PALAST:
The secret file fell into the hands of national security expert, Joe Trento. The Washington spook-tracker has been looking into the FBI's allegations about WAMY.
TRENTO:
They've had connections to Osama Bin Laden's people. They've had connections to Muslim cultural and financial aid groups that have terrorist connections. They fit the pattern of groups that the Saudi royal family and Saudi community of princes - the 20,000 princes - have funded who've engaged in terrorist activity.
Now, do I know that WAMY has done anything that's illegal? No, I don't know that. Do I know that as far back as 1996 the FBI was very concerned about this organisation? I do.
PALAST:
Newsnight has uncovered a long history of shadowy connections between the State Department, the CIA and the Saudis. The former head of the American visa bureau in Jeddah is Michael Springman.
MICHAEL SPRINGMAN:
In Saudi Arabia I was repeatedly ordered by high level State Dept officials to issue visas to unqualified applicants. These were, essentially, people who had no ties either to Saudi Arabia or to their own country. I complained bitterly at the time there. I returned to the US, I complained to the State Dept here, to the General Accounting Office, to the Bureau of Diplomatic Security and to the Inspector General's office. I was met with silence.
PALAST:
By now, Bush Sr, once CIA director, was in the White House. Springman was shocked to find this wasn't visa fraud. Rather, State and CIA were playing "the Great Game".
SPRINGMAN:
What I was protesting was, in reality, an effort to bring recruits, rounded up by Osama Bin Laden, to the US for terrorist training by the CIA. They would then be returned to Afghanistan to fight against the then-Soviets.
The attack on the World Trade Center in 1993 did not shake the State Department's faith in the Saudis, nor did the attack on American barracks at Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia three years later, in which 19 Americans died. FBI agents began to feel their investigation was being obstructed. Would you be surprised to find out that FBI agents are a bit frustrated that they can't be looking into some Saudi connections?
MICHAEL WILDES, ( LAWYER)
I would never be surprised with that. They're cut off at the hip sometimes by supervisors or given shots that are being called from Washington at the highest levels.
PALAST:
I showed lawyer Michael Wildes our FBI documents. One of the Khobar Towers bombers was represented by Wildes, who thought he had useful intelligence for the US. He also represents a Saudi diplomat who defected to the USA with 14,000 documents which Wildes claims implicates Saudi citizens in financing terrorism and more. Wildes met with FBI men who told him they were not permitted to read all the documents. Nevertheless, he tried to give them to the agents.
WILDES:
"Take these with you. We're not going to charge for the copies. Keep them. Do something with them. Get some bad guys with them." They refused.
PALAST:
In the hall of mirrors that is the US intelligence community, Wildes, a former US federal attorney, said the FBI field agents wanted the documents, but they were told to "see no evil."
WILDES:
You see a difference between the rank-and-file counter-intelligence agents, who are regarded by some as the motor pool of the FBI, who drive following diplomats, and the people who are getting the shots called at the highest level of our government, who have a different agenda - it's unconscionable.
PALAST:
State wanted to keep the pro-American Saudi royal family in control of the world's biggest oil spigot, even at the price of turning a blind eye to any terrorist connection so long as America was safe. In recent years, CIA operatives had other reasons for not exposing Saudi-backed suspects.
TRENTO:
If you recruited somebody who is a member of a terrorist organisation, who happens to make his way here to the US, and even though you're not in touch with that person anymore but you have used him in the past, it would be unseemly if he were arrested by the FBI and word got back that he'd once been on the payroll of the CIA. What we're talking about is blow-back. What we're talking about is embarrassing, career-destroying blow-back for intelligence officials.
PALAST:
Does the Bush family also have to worry about political blow-back? The younger Bush made his first million 20 years ago with an oil company partly funded by Salem Bin Laden's chief US representative. Young George also received fees as director of a subsidiary of Carlyle Corporation, a little known private company which has, in just a few years of its founding, become one of Americas biggest defence contractors. His father, Bush Senior, is also a paid advisor. And what became embarrassing was the revelation that the Bin Ladens held a stake in Carlyle, sold just after September 11.
ELSNER:
You have a key relationship between the Saudis and the former President of the US who happens to be the father of the current President of the US. And you have all sorts of questions about where does policy begin and where does good business and good profits for the company, Carlyle, end?
PALAST:
I received a phone call from a high-placed member of a US intelligence agency. He tells me that while there's always been constraints on investigating Saudis, under George Bush it's gotten much worse. After the elections, the agencies were told to "back off" investigating the Bin Ladens and Saudi royals, and that angered agents. I'm told that since September 11th the policy has been reversed. FBI headquarters told us they could not comment on our findings. A spokesman said: "There are lots of things that only the intelligence community knows and that no-one else ought to know.
End Of Interview
What else is new !
misetich
(01/15/03; 19:59:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 94537)
Hedging activity could add to dollar pressure
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1042490756225&p=1012571727201
Snip:
"For a eurozone investor, it now pays to hedge your dollar exposure and it is pretty cheap to hedge if you are in Switzerland or Japan too," said Tony Norfield, head of currency strategy at ABN Amro in London.
Six-month interest rates in the US are now around 1.4 per cent, compared to 2.75 per cent in the eurozone and close to 4 per cent in the UK.
Mr Norfield estimates that portfolio managers may increase their hedging ratios by as much as 15 percentage points by the middle of the year.
If this forecast proves true it would have serious implications for the dollar. The US has become increasingly dependent on portfolio flows to fund the current account deficit - a net direct investment inflow of $3bn in 2001 became a $66bn outflow in 2002.
At the end of last year US foreign investors held $1,200bn in US Treasuries, $1,700bn in US corporate and agency bonds and $1,100bn in US equities.
Tony Norfield said that although a significant portion of these assets were held by central banks that were unlikely to hedge, a 15 percentage point rise in hedge ratios would imply around $270bn of dollar selling from European investors alone.
ABN Amro is now forecasting a rise in the euro to $1.09 within the next few months.
**********
Misetich
The overvalued US $ is getting hit from all sides - the only productivity gain left is the printing presses in the US and Japan
Got gold?
Trojan
(01/15/03; 19:49:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 94536)
@ Sector, Cavan Man and Mikal
If you want some more of that Stuff. Look at my Post # 94460. It lists the Top 10 theories of 2002.
3, 4 and 5 make good reading.
mikal
(01/15/03; 19:49:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 94535)
@sector
Another thing your post brought to mind: The numerous statements from top Bush admin. officials around the same time, over most of the last year and in the end of 2001(post-9-11). Suggesting that terror attacks were coming. Actually, they went on record, deliberately we shall see, (Like the financial tv gurus, economists, executives and officials that turned publicly gold bullish and reversed POG forecasts, FOR THE RECORD) to state that "we don't know where or when, but we know soon they will HIT US HARD." And similar warnings and accusations, all strikingly explicit and domestic in focus, and FOR THE NEAR TERM. Regards
Gold Hill
(01/15/03; 19:47:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 94534)
Energy Costs
Just returned from the midwest(Columbus, OH), the weather forcast there was for at least two weeks of below freezeing temperatures,and that is the highs!! When I got to O'Hare it was 5 degrees. Anybody that read today's WSJ like I did (four airports in nine hours), will buy gold tomorrow. I do believe we've got a dip here!!
$20 Saints are cheap, call the host of this site and lock some in!!!
Cavan Man
(01/15/03; 19:28:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 94533)
sector
The last post refers to FDR and those who knew about the strategy to engage Japan. I believe the number was 12 (strange).
Cavan Man
(01/15/03; 19:24:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 94532)
History (which, BTW, deserves CAREFUL reading)
Necessity also makes for strange bedfellows.
misetich
(01/15/03; 19:24:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 94531)
Unemployment on the Rise; Pensions ousting managers
http://www.nj.com/business/ledger/index.ssf?/base/business-3/1042614618315360.xml
Snip:
State pension fund managers have decided to cut their ties with Wall Street asset managers, whom they blame for allowing bad stock market losses to grow even bigger.
State employee retirement funds lost more than $150 billion in the fiscal year ending June 30, according to the Federal Reserve, and many outside fund managers are paying the price.
All of the state pension funds surveyed by Reuters lost money last year. South Carolina's $21 billion state pension fund dipped a scant 0.53 percent, posting the best results. Arkansas rated worst, losing 15.8 percent for the year. Michigan's main public fund slid by $6.74 billion, or 13.8 percent.
New Jersey's state pension fund performance ranked third to last, suffering a 12.3 percent skid that sliced nearly $9 billion off its assets.
The horrendous performance has led states to take action, and some Wall Street firms are paying the price. Led by California's behemoth $133 billion Calpers fund -- which dismissed Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch and Credit Suisse in 2002 -- states around the country are firing asset managers left and right.
............
The Reuters survey of the biggest public pension funds, which includes plans for everyone from state employees, teachers and judges to police officers and firefighters in 39 states -- found every one of them dropped in total assets.
************
Misetich
If only these pension managers hedged their bets and bought gold at $250 - $290 they would be able to enjoy their fat bonuses instead of collecting unemployment benefits
and if new incoming pension managers are smart enough to add physical gold at today's cheap prices they may be able to avoid the fate of their predecessors as the big bad bear in SM is not finished yet and the gold bull is only beginning
Got gold?
Cavan Man
(01/15/03; 19:22:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 94530)
ah.............sector..........!
You must have read Mr. Stinson's "Day of Deceit" eh? Coincidentally and perhaps ironically, Mr. Stinson served in the USN under......ta da....George Bush Sr. (Believe it)
When asked why he wrote the book which was not met with braod acclamation and acceptance Mr. Stinson said, I fought in that war. "I just wanted to know the truth".
mikal
(01/15/03; 19:22:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 94529)
@sector
What you just said took me back to the times when every other day we were warned in the news about a terror alert here and terror "chatter" there. News of color coded levels of preparedness. Suspects sought or arrested. Then they toned it down a notch, after complaints from officials seeing public complacency. But the headlines, hype and photoshoots keep coming. Just like the latest anthrax "close call", conveniently so, not coincidental. Neither are the 22 missing microbiologists. Have you seen Devvy.com? There is some background on WMD's there and the dead scientists.
sector
(01/15/03; 19:02:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 94528)
@ GratefulforGold -- War is Off...Plan "B"
Is there a Plan "B" to launch an Iraq War?
Maybe history is a guide.
Our Pacific fleet was bait at Pearl Harbor and FDR had cleanly broken the "Purple" Japanese military codes. Incidentally, each reception by the Pacific Radio Intel group recorded the Radio Direction Finding bearings to the radio sources. Therefore the US knew the various fleet locations including the Akagi's group. They weren't on radio silence. There are 124 Japanese transmitted radio messages that are still "Classified" by the NSA. But their log numbers show them to be the Akagi. ["Day of Deceit", Stinnett, 1999]. Indeed the Navy confiscated the radio log of a luxury liner [Lurline] that landed in Hawaii just after Dec. 7th because it contained numerous back and forth communications from the Japanese carrier attack group and the mainland. No radio silence.
The Freedom of Information Act has unveiled the deception. The top US leaders knew that Hawaii was the target, they knew the date. They sat on the information. Afterwards the Hawaii intel chief who purposely kept Adm. Kimmel in the dark said, "Pearl Harbor was a small price to pay..." to get the US into the war.
The Gulf of Tonkin ruse led to Viet Nam. And one can only guess at the truth behind 9/11. The assasins trained to rake off but not to land. The FBI knew that.
Bush and Blair meet a few days after the San Diego Super Bowl where Saudi nationals have a high presence. They hold seats on the water board.
Popular and/or World opposition never stopped Presidents from precipitating adventurous wars before.
I hope I'm wrong.
miner49er
(01/15/03; 18:50:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 94527)
Belgian @ 94516
Hi Belgian, that point where you say, "What was the purpose of near zero IRs ? Answer in one word : REFINANSING in (strong) US$ ! For repayment (servicing-?) in "very" weak dollars ?" -- That makes perfect sense.
I would hear the CNBC gang talk (couple years ago) about what a proof it was the US (dollar economy) was where it was AT, because of all the foreign companies "fleeing" Europe for the evergreen pastures of American capitalism, and buying up American companies.
In my thinking, it seemed just a very smart move to get in early on the (then) anticipated strong dollar momentum, and to boot, finance all there activities in a declining IR environment. The real reason, of course would be that they would be paying this all back with cheap, cheap, cheaper dollars at some point.
In the meantime, they could a) capitalize on the then strong equity momentum to get the money for their acquisitions, b) finance as above, to pay back in cheap paper, and c) who knows, actually have quite possibly a decent business under their belt, depending on who bought what.
So too, all the talking heads, who love to point out the tremendous debt burden of those irresponsible desert dwellers, ME oil. In reality, they were smart to take on as much debt as they could tolerate, for the same reasons, just endure until, their coming cheap payback in declining dollars more than compensates for the loss up front. And this doesn't even include the compensation to be had in appreciating gold.
Sadly, I watch a wonderful nation, with truly some of the most industrious, enterprising, intelligent people around (I know, I work around/with some of the finest!), fall victim to a banking/finance fiasco of herculean proportions. So many, so expert in their individual professional disciplines, but so naive and gullible in matters having to do with money...
Well, we shall watch this gold market, no...? Even from the lilliputian gallery, way in the back...
cheers, good Sir,
miner
Trojan
(01/15/03; 18:42:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 94526)
North Korea "Their Point Of View"
I have been clicking on the Drudge Report and then at the bottom left hand side clicking on the North Korean News link. I have been doing this for about two weeks now in order to see what they are thinking.
Why ? Sad to say watching the USA and also Canadian version of things. North Korea is bluffing. North Korea is led by a Porn Loving Madman. Etc......
Read the following and then look at my closing comments. Maybe you might see a different picture than the one we are being shown in the USA.
KCNA refutes U.S. sophism about DPRK's decision
Pyongyang, January 14 (KCNA) -- Some of the international community are reported to have made such unreasonable remarks as expressing "serious concern" and "regret" over the DPRK's decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
The U.S. President, Vice-President and other senior U.S. officials let loose a whole string of sheer sophism misrepresenting the nature and cause of the grave situation.
As the U.S. is to blame for spawning the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula and driving it to the worst phase, there is no need for the international community to "worry" about the decision.
The DPRK Government has already clarified that though the DPRK withdraws from the NPT, it has no will to produce nuclear weapons and its nuclear activities will be confined to the production of electricity at the present stage.
If the U.S. had not listed the DPRK, a sovereign state, as part of an "axis of evil" and a target of its preemptive nuclear attack in wanton violation of the NPT and the DPRK-U.S. Agreed Framework (AF), such a crisis would not have occurred.
The U.S. talk about the DPRK's "admission of its nuclear development" is nothing but a product of the despicable premeditated plot hatched by the U.S. bellicose elements.
The U.S. is seriously mistaken if it calculates the DPRK will remain a onlooker to the situation where the U.S. adopted it as its policy to overthrow the DPRK's system and mobilized even the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a dirty political servant, to isolate and stifle it.
While frantically stepping up its preparations for a war of aggression against the DPRK, the U.S. unilaterally stopped the supply of heavy oil to it and thus abandoned even its last commitment that had been fulfilled under the AF, causing an enormous loss of electricity to the DPRK and creating the most acute shortage of electricity in the country.
This compelled the DPRK to defreeze its nuclear facilities.
It is an inviolable legitimate right of a sovereign state to withdraw from the NPT to develop its independent nuclear power industry under the present situation where its supreme interests are seriously infringed upon by the U.S.
Ours is a people of strong will who put into practice anything they determined to do. Even if the worst thing happens, they have nothing to fear.
Some countries and media are so foolish as to describe the step taken by the DPRK as "brinkmanship". But it is not "brinkmanship".
The DPRK regards any U.S. sanctions against it as a declaration of a war and is fully combat-ready to cope with it.
It is the unshakable will of the Korean people that if the ten million-strong army and people unite as one and fight in a do-or-die spirit, they can surely emerge victorious.
If the U.S. politicians value the interests and future of their country, they had better properly understand the DPRK's resolute stand and stop going reckless.
End Of Statement
OK, Let's CUT TO THE CHASE
If the U.S. had not listed the DPRK, a sovereign state, as part of an "axis of evil" and a target of its preemptive nuclear attack in wanton violation of the NPT and the DPRK-U.S. Agreed Framework (AF), such a crisis would not have occurred.
What does North Korea really Want ?
A NON-Agression Pact.
That's it short and sweet.
They will dismantle their Nuclear capabilities and the USA will sign the Pact.
BUT NO.......
That will NOT suit the USA's purposes. They need their Axis Of Evil.
I'm a Canadian as I have said before. With Due Respect and LOT's of RESPECT to American Citizens reading this. Bush is as our Canadian Prime Minister's press secretary said, "A Moron"
I am NOT one to publically insult people but I have to tell you that it makes me angry to see the USA (It's Leader's) Play the World for fools.
Unfortunately what happens in the USA affects us All in some way.
Agree or Disagree ?
Am I wrong in the way I see this ?
How do Americans reading this feel ?
Will you do something about it in a peaceful way ?
Let me tell you. Iran and it's Leader's are not fools
They know they are Number Three on the list.
You can count on them now hard at work with Russia's help to get the Nuclear Bomb. Do you blame them ?
Why in Heaven's name did Bush need to Antagonize other nations ? The Axis Of Evil. And apparantly it was a Canadian, Mr. Frum who wrote that for his Speech.
I can't wait to hear President Bush's State Of The Universe Address this 28TH of January.
Cavan Man
(01/15/03; 18:24:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 94525)
Here's to globalization!
Israel to kill in U.S., allied nations
By Richard Sale
UPI Intelligence Correspondent
From the Washington Politics & Policy Desk
Published 1/15/2003 7:14 PM
View printer-friendly version
Israel is embarking upon a more aggressive approach to the war on terror that will include staging targeted killings in the United States and other friendly countries, former Israeli intelligence officials told United Press International.
CoBra(too)
(01/15/03; 16:45:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 94524)
Celts? Sounds awful ... Sir C(K)avan, Man, I apologize ...
Kelts do wear Kilts, too? Or barrels - sans the oil -of Diogenes', who asked the usurpator to step out of his (D's) Sun. What more do we need - a li'l old place in the sun - forget about barrels ...
So, told you and all - was in a hurry to (partly) object and agree to a flurry of diverse opinionated opinions on the MK EU theme.
As I've stated, my good friend, my first reply was just off the cuff and the second - should have been stuffed - anyway I'll try to make good on that, call it obstructive - vs. constructive.
Not-withstanding our late debate ... Gold is doing what it's always done - being begnign enough to snuff at the cappers - and just doing what Gold always does - protect wealth!
Ari says - Gold is Gold - who am I to debate that Fact?!
cb2 - sans any weight and measure ... only a bit obese - personally - cb2
MK
(01/15/03; 16:29:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 94523)
Belgian. . .
The impetus for major political events are more often than not completely unforeseen. My earlier post today would be meaningless if the dollar were to suddenly collapse and the post World War II economic arrangement disintegrate. In the vacuum which followed such an event, anything would be possible -- including an accelerated push by Europe for a strong central government -- out of necessity. As you say, we shall see what happens. You are certainly right about one thing: The euro sets the stage for many allied developments down the road and is prescient in that capacity. Europe has already taken the first step. For this I give the founders of the New Europe much credit. I am happy to see that you can call yourself a Eurolander. . . . .My criticisms of the current process are as a friendly observer. Please be assured that I wish my European friends well, and would encourage their continued acquisition of gold coins as a practical insurance against human error on either, or both, sides of the Atlantic.
Trojan
(01/15/03; 16:25:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 94522)
The Monetary Control Act Of 1980
http://landru.i-link-2.net/monques/dereg80.html
Just wanted to make sure I didn't mislead anyone.
Isn't Google Great :-)
Black Blade
(01/15/03; 16:19:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 94521)
So How Bad Is The US Economy?
Snippits from today's news:
The Bush administration will seek a record $4.77 billion in its fiscal 2004 budget for the popular WIC program that provides extra food to poor women and their children, Agriculture Secretary Ann Veneman said on Wednesday. Nearly half of the children born in the United States each year benefit from WIC -- the Women, Infants and Children supplemental nutrition program. In addition to WIC, some 20.7 million people were estimated to receive food stamps this year, an increase from the 19.1 million participants in fiscal 2002. Food stamp participation increases during economic downturns. "I think we are projecting an increase for 2004 as well," Veneman said.
President Bush's budget director said on Wednesday he expects the U.S. government to run deficits for the "foreseeable future," with shortfalls of $200 billion to $300 billion this fiscal year and next that could be the biggest on record. The projections, by Office of Management and Budget Director Mitch Daniels, underscored a dramatic deterioration in the government's fiscal picture since a record budget surplus of $236 billion seen in 2000.
An influential moderate Senate Democrat on Wednesday urged President Bush to tackle Social Security reform this year, saying time was running out to shore up the system before baby boomers retire.
Black Blade: This is just a small sampling from today's news. If the economy was is "economic recovery" why all the "doom and gloom"? It's quite simple, the economy is actually worsening and there is no "economic recovery". Debt (consumer, corporate, and government) is at all time record levels and getting worse. The situation is dire and our government leaders know it. I expect to see a lot of drastic changes as the noose gets tighter. We should see more governmnet spending for social programs just so people can eat. Today it takes both spouses working just to make ends meet. The US dollar has been so devalued that we are losing ground as the treadmill spins ever faster.
As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities. In the end, only you can look out for number one because in reality, no one else will.
Off to the gym!
Trojan
(01/15/03; 16:09:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 94520)
@ Contrarian Re: Your Post # 94484
You asked about when did the Fed or FEED :-) get the authority to get stocks.
In my Post # 94215 I mentioned it. Here is the item:
(12) Greenspan is running the show now with No Controls on him. Greenspan has ALL the Tools he needs including The Monetary Control Act Of 1980 which allows the FED to buy Stocks.
Hope that clears it up.
I'm calling them the FEED from now on. They keep FEEDING the Suckers those Dollar's :-)
Cavan Man
(01/15/03; 15:46:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 94519)
Dear friend CB (too)
What was that comment about CELTS?
You must be referring to the antiquarian variety n'est ce pas?
Black Blade
(01/15/03; 15:35:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 94518)
Weather Problems
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/headlines.asp?iws=2
Ah, don't ya just love Winter? Though the weather isn't so bad here there were some weather related power problems that delayed pulling together today's DMR, but finally the Gods took pity and now the Daily Report is posted though not as comprehensive as I would like.
The drop in the PPI has apparently given the pundits a lot to talk about today. I can imagine that the deflation debate will be the subject of a lot of talk.
El Gordo: Tomorrow we will get a preview of the NatGas supply draws, but due to the lag of weekly reporting we will likely see the real impact with next weeks' data. Tomorrow the EIA will release last weeks data. Meanwhile NatGas prices kicked higher on forecasts of a large Canadian cold front (dang Canadians!) that will move south down through the Mid-section of the US. NG also jumped higher in sympathy with record low oil inventories as well as expectations of heavy storage draws over the next few weeks. The weather forecast picture suggests a much colder Winter as feared. This along with extremely low rig counts it should get interesting. The higher energy costs are going to hit the consumer right between the eyes like a sledge hammer. The costs to the economy are obvious.
- Black Blade
Husky
(01/15/03; 15:29:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 94517)
Mr Gresham, MK: Europe
Mr. Gresham writes: "Perhaps that is what our friend here -- (only 1 window open -- can't go back to look 2 days ago) -- was mentioning about the knitting together at the lower levels of functioning. (I was so surprised the first time I drove ;non-stop through from Netherlands to Italy in a few hours.)"
Yes, precisely what I meant. Europe appears extremely 'integrated' these days if you take just about any topic and throw it under a microscope. In other words, political integration is not taking place from the top down. It is taking place from the bottom up. Americans can't see that, and it's not really their 'fault' per se since the insight requires a broad view of daily life in Europe and also since there are differences in functioning beliefs concerning where the political power in fact rests in a society in the first place - i.e. whether the real power is in the upper or lower layers.
Europe is a democracy driven from the bottom up, not the top down as in the US. Sure, the Commission isn't democratic. To transpose the criticism of the Commission into American terms, this would be like criticising the 'choice' of vanilla candidates offered to American voters by the 'elites'. The criticism is valid in a technical sense in both cases, yet the method implied to fix things may be overly focused on the wrong 'layer'in each case. The point being that 'organic' analysis is required rather than anaylsis by reference to an external yardstick.
Belgian
(01/15/03; 15:26:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 94516)
@ Miner49er
The dollar as good as Gold : Obtained by 2 major blocks of Gold - sellers (re-allocators).
1/ The dollar-block selling Gold through the brotherhood's miners and private Gold-holders (not treasury Gold) and US- sympathisants, UK/Kuwait and others.
2/ Euroland's CBs.
Both selling-blocks (1 and 2) had / have periods of same goals and periods of diverging goals. Goals being Fluctuating exchange rates of $ - €.
Yes Sir, I'll certainly add the opportunism of the "smart" brotherhood(s) (and gamblers), positionning, for a fantastic coming, inevitable, joy-riding on Gold's rise.
WHY...?
Because a massive dollar-flight was already in the cards long ago. Flight to what : Gold and...euro (stated by Nomura, today). Let's leave out the Gold-enhancing effect on the euro for the time being and try to measure somehow on what is ment by "massive" dollar-flight. How massive ?
Throw your darts to the percentage board...20%...30%...?
Against the euro or Gold (rhetoric) ?
What was the purpose of near zero IRs ? Answer in one word : REFINANSING in (strong) US$ ! For repayment (servicing-?) in "very" weak dollars ? Again, how weak and weak against what ?
Is the answer lying with block-2 Gold sellers, aka Euroland's CBs ?
Is it the economy or is it the dollar (daddy > son) ?
Is the dollar that is "sick and tired"...?
Is a *reasonably* declining dollar (20%-30%) going to be able to swing-start global economy's expansion, again, for the benefit of all of us...them ???
That's the "Shakespearian" question. I'm afraid the answer is NO, but leave all doors open as usual. I think that the Euroland CBs made their bet, already... with the re-allocation of some Gold to broaden the "concept".
Thanks miner for ...everything !
canamami
(01/15/03; 15:04:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 94515)
Mutual fund sales plunge 88 per cent in 2002
http://cbc.ca/stories/2003/01/15/funds030115
Mutual fund sales plunge 88 per cent in 2002
Last Updated Wed, 15 Jan 2003 14:02:17
TORONTO - Net sales of mutual funds fell by a whopping 88 per cent in 2002 to levels that haven't been seen in years, the Investment Funds Institute of Canada (IFIC) reported Wednesday.
.............
Belgian
(01/15/03; 14:36:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 94514)
@ Sir Kosares - Euroland
Funny it may be, but I, previously, had the same criticisms/scepticism about Euroland, in the make, as expressed in your posting.
But through "your" fine forum here...I progressively changed my mind, step by step. Simply because I've been learning here so much from accross the Atlantic we both share. Learned about the "growing" differences between Americans and Eurolanders. Yes Sir, quite an extraordinary experience for wich I'll remain thankful to you personaly, your team and your forum-guests.
Allow me to conclude this Euroland-chapter with my concluding belief that : Euroland's diversity is NOT its weakness but its enduring "strength" ! We will both find out how things will evolve, whilst remaining in friendship and respect for each other. Many thanks Sir Kosares for communicating your opinion. Regards, Belgian...Eurolander .
ElGordo
(01/15/03; 14:35:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 94513)
Deficit Grows
Associated Press Writer
Wednesday, January 15, 2003; 3:16 PM
WASHINGTON –– President Bush's budget chief said Wednesday that the White House envisions federal deficits in the $200 billion to $300 billion range over the next two years, a dramatic worsening of the government's fiscal picture since last summer.
Budget director Mitchell Daniels also refused to say when federal surpluses would return, commenting only, "Stand by."
ElGordo
(01/15/03; 14:28:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 94512)
Oil stockpiles fall
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil inventories dropped to near their lowest level in more than two decades last week, drained by a dearth of shipments from strike-bound Venezuela, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.
Crude oil stockpiles fell 6.4 million barrels to 272.3 million barrels during the week ended last Friday, EIA said, just 2 million barrels above the lowest level since the government agency started keeping records in 1979.
Data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed crude oil supplies falling 3.2 million barrels to a new 27-year low, dipping around 1 million barrels under a low struck in October.
ElGordo
(01/15/03; 14:14:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 94511)
Argentina woes
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Argentine stocks snapped a recent winning streak Wednesday after the government defaulted on its debt to one of its biggest public lenders.
Argentina will not be able to make a $680 million debt payment to the Inter-American Development Bank scheduled for Wednesday, effectively cutting itself off from one of its last major lenders.
The IADB, one of the biggest lenders to Latin America and controlled 30 percent by the U.S., said that it had been notified by Argentina that it would delay payments for a brief period because of technical issues arising from public sector financing restrictions of the central bank.
Argentine Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna said "the delay will be brief and ... will be resolved in the framework of broader refinancing agreements with multilateral organizations," the IADB said in a statement.
The IADB, which is owed $8 billion by Argentina, said it will suspend loan disbursements to the country while it is behind on its obligations.
The default comes at a critical time for Argentina, which has been trying to negotiate an aid deal with the International Monetary Fund ahead of a major debt repayment later this week.
Argentina is supposed to repay $1 billion to the IMF before a Sept. 17 deadline and will face default on its debt if it doesn't do so.
___________
Brazil could have debt problems later this year
Brett Woods
(01/15/03; 14:13:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 94510)
John Le Carre: woI not woT
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0%2C%2C482-543296%2C00.html
Mostly old hat for USAGold forum readers but John Le Carre opinion (author of "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy") is always worth a review. I was shocked to read in the Sydney Morning Herald online a few days ago, the assertion that Australian troops were being pledged to the Iraqi task force to fight the woT. I wrote to them for clarification.
(They didn't reply)
****
excerpt: "...
Care for a few pointers? George W. Bush, 1978-84: senior executive, Arbusto Energy/Bush Exploration, an oil company; 1986-90: senior executive of the Harken oil company. Dick Cheney, 1995-2000: chief executive of the Halliburton oil company. Condoleezza Rice, 1991-2000: senior executive with the Chevron oil company, which named an oil tanker after her. And so on. But none of these trifling associations affects the integrity of God's work
How Bush and his junta succeeded in deflecting America's anger from bin Laden to Saddam Hussein is one of the great public relations conjuring tricks of history. But they swung it. A recent poll tells us that one in two Americans now believe Saddam was responsible for the attack on the World Trade Centre. But the American public is not merely being misled. It is being browbeaten and kept in a state of ignorance and fear. The carefully orchestrated neurosis should carry Bush and his fellow conspirators nicely into the next election.
Those who are not with Mr Bush are against him. Worse, they are with the enemy. Which is odd, because I'm dead against Bush, but I would love to see Saddam's downfall — just not on Bush's terms and not by his methods. And not under the banner of such outrageous hypocrisy.
The religious cant that will send American troops into battle is perhaps the most sickening aspect of this surreal war-to-be. Bush has an arm-lock on God. And God has very particular political opinions. God appointed America to save the world in any way that suits America. God appointed Israel to be the nexus of America's Middle Eastern policy, and anyone who wants to mess with that idea is a) anti-Semitic, b) anti-American, c) with the enemy, and d) a terrorist.
"But will we win, Daddy?"
"Of course, child. It will all be over while you're still in bed."
"Why?"
"Because otherwise Mr Bush's voters will get terribly impatient and may decide not to vote for him."
"But will people be killed, Daddy?"
"Nobody you know, darling. Just foreign people."
"Can I watch it on television?"
"Only if Mr Bush says you can."
"And afterwards, will everything be normal again? Nobody will do anything horrid any more?"
"Hush child, and go to sleep."
Last Friday a friend of mine in California drove to his local supermarket with a sticker on his car saying: "Peace is also Patriotic". It was gone by the time he'd finished shopping.
..."
John Le Carre,
Times online January 15, 2003
****
Of course, there is no relationship in evidence between 9/11 and Iran/Iraq/N.Korea except in the proximity of the rhetoric. But we all know that, don't we?
miner49er
(01/15/03; 13:41:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 94509)
Belgian @ 94425 - Whys and Wherefores
Dearest Belgian -
In response to your (I'm certain, rhetorical) questions, I will likewise attempt to entertain you with my own responses... Not so much an answer, but just some rehashing and observations around the whole affair.
Q: "**** Why *** is Euroland, UK and Switzerland, supposedly "selling" , CB-monetary-Gold ? [ ... ] And "what" kind of selling is actually going on ? And "why" is there no debate about this ?"
First to answer a question with a question. With all of this high profile "selling," where the past few years found every nation, state, and principality stepping all over each other in a rush to sell-lease-loan-derivatize every ounce and gram they had in their treasuries, why was the US not on this flight, as well? Or, were they just hiding out in the lavatory?
Reviewing the past briefly, we find that in the current post-Bretton-Woods-cum-Comex-LBMA-et-al. skeleton, the USD has had to appear as "good as gold." In order to appear strong suggested that the US not sell its gold, since this gives the appearance of needing to support the currency, boding negatively on the dollar. Yet by the same token, the question is begged: "Well, since the USD is so much better than gold, and doesn't think much of it, leaving it on the books at, yawn, forty-something dollars, why don't they just sell the garbage?" In reality, the USD has needed support for ages, and since it has always mysteriously kept going, the further intimation is that it probably has supported itself with significant gold transactions.
Non-USD entities, on the other hand, holding both gold and USD as reserves, in order to support the USD=gold appearance, would in opposite fashion purportedly be best served by selling their gold, since the message they wished to convey was that they all wanted currency; largely dollars, or some secondary currency (with their managed flexible exch. rate architecture still revolving around the dollar) -- e.g., UK reason for gold sales -- interest bearing instruments were more fiscally prudent, blah blah blah.... Again by the same token, the question arises as to why prudent bankers would put all their eggs in one basket. Should they not hold gold? Since the dollar animal is not under their direct control, why would they not insist on holding some hefty trustworthy, alternative reserves in case the beast goes belly-up (or on a rampage). In reality, they likely sold gold in the past to support the dollar, all the while fashioning a replacement. Today, reduced gold sales continue a) to keep up this appearance of dollar support, so as to not rock the boat, or "tip their hand;" and b) to make final settlement (your "conclusion") to certain accounts that demand it, and have the clout to do so -- ME oil is a good candidate.
Paradox, contradiction, or just as you simply state: disinformation? As I often try to point out here, regardless of what people may think about the financial lords who rule this world (your "brotherhood" folks), one thing they generally are not -- they are NOT stupid. Therefore, anything paradoxical, or contradictory is likely so by design. When people get all worked up over this or that news article, I find this mostly a fruitless exercise. The news articles know nothing. How can they? Their authors report the little things they see, and interpret them according to the filters of their own understanding. And then the thousands of these are culled by sources even further from the action, and more likely to be "yes-man" lackeys, who answer to forces concerned with only two things: selling their wares, or promoting their agenda. From this a little splat makes it to the public, of which we only read a little smattering, and usually only a smidgen of the smattering, skimming most of the template-formatted, fill-in-the-blank pabulum.
Who is in the parlor of the villa in the countryside with the very private gathering of this or that money mogul? Who has read their private emails and correspondence? Who sits in their boardrooms or on their conference calls? Who even knows who they are? Oh, yes, everyone knows about Rothschilds, and Bilderbergers, etc., but no one knows anything about their comings and goings. Can anyone tell me what one single Rothschild is doing for lunch, today? Never mind the dozens of other unnamed families that have a say in these matters. They all live and move and conduct their affairs, very privately, just like we do. How can we expect to know what is really taking place at these levels? Ridiculous.
So we must rely on the published cud regurgitated from the maws of the various minion news organs. And as you so aptly instruct, we must extrapolate from these dis-jointed threads, and weave them together with the acumen of our best-effort understanding of human nature. No one is going to lay it out plainly -- especially to us, the lilliputian masses...
So... who actually does what, and why? If you may, please excuse the following convolution: The US ought to sell, because they imply they don't need it; but they suggest they don't sell, yet they probably need to sell for support, and to settle certain accounts, so they probably do (and without a lot of noise about it, and in very complex transactions). The Europeans, on the other hand insinuate they should sell, but they shouldn't, because they might very well need it, but also must keep up an appearance for the time being, and also may have to settle some accounts, so they supposedly do (and very publicly, too).
Bottom line, both factions clearly hold onto as much gold as possible. And let us also state the converse. Both factions clearly sell as little gold as possible. -- Just like all of us...
Under the bottom line, is as you've said. There is the largest, most comprehensive disinformation campaign taking place that this world has yet seen. (Anyone remember when WAT started, and the US government publicly stated that part of the war would be the dissemination of disinformation both to outsiders, and the citizenry themselves?)
Under the bottom line, further. Since no one knows anymore who's telling the truth, Belgian, I know you subscribe to this advice: accumulate an asset that doesn't depend on someone else's words and promises. So to anyone else who has bothered to read this far, go for the gold, and give CPM a call, today.
Belgian - best to you, and thanks for your thought-provoking commentary...
miner
CoBra(too)
(01/15/03; 13:17:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 94508)
Looks like my last post is full of (hasty)
Omissions ... won't correct now - as I'm working on a longer response - Forgive me - cb2
Kagalaska
(01/15/03; 12:46:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 94507)
BUBONIC PLAGUE
Damm, Now there are 35 vails of Black Death missing in TX.
But don't worry only 1 in 7 die (infected persons that is).
Whats next!!!
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(01/15/03; 12:45:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 94506)
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