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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 9/15/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Black Blade (9/15/02; 23:40:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 85172)
China Becomes a Major Silver Exporter
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200209/15/eng20020915_103239.shtml

China is playing an increasingly important role in silver trading worldwide since becoming a major exporter of the precious metal.

Snippit:

The first Annual China Silver Conference, in the capital of north China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, heard that the precious metal was in short supply. "As for the world silver market, the question yet to be answered is whether the Chinese government will continue to sell abroad its silver reserves," Jaime Lomelin, president of Industrias Penoles, the world largest silver production enterprise based in Mexico, said. He explained that silver supply through traditional channels had failed to meet manufacturers' demand for 12 years. Last year the shortage was met from government reserves, particularly those of the United States and China, he added. He said that last year China set the silver export quota at 1,180 tons, much higher than the 200 tons for the previous year. The figure will rise to a new high this year.


Black Blade: Of course China has yet to deliver such quantities. "Interesting"



Black Blade (9/15/02; 23:34:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 85171)
Hedging takes shine off high gold prices
http://www.thewest.com.au/20020914/business/tw-business-home-sto71704.html

Snippit:

FOR most of the past 12 months, Australian gold miners have enjoyed the highest spot gold prices in nearly six years as war and global economic jitters helped the yellow metal regain its investment popularity. But the high prices - gold touched $US331 ($600) an ounce at its peak - have not filtered through to the bottom line, with the gold sector returning a diverse range of profit results for the year to June 30. Hedging proved the biggest culprit in the weaker results after a change in Australian accounting rules forced mining companies to adjust their books to reflect net market values of their hedge positions at balance date.


Black Blade: The Mega-hedgers better take note. Even an apologist for Barrick's hedging practices recently had to admit that hedging hurts the price of gold. Now many hedgers are rushing for the exits and closing out their books. Should get "interesting".



Black Blade (9/15/02; 23:19:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 85170)
Asian Meltdown
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Asian markets are in "Crater Mode" tonight. Fortunately for the Nikkei Japanese markets are closed for a holiday. Looks like a possible ugly open for Euro markets too. Since most of the Gold buying action is expected on the TOCOM this week, the POG has slipped slightly. Gold should hold up well in spite of a stronger US dollar. Looks like a lot of "entertainment" tonight. Hang on for the ride!

- Black Blade


Galearis (9/15/02; 22:46:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 85169)
G-Khan, re sterling testing
GREAT JOB!
My hat is off to you, sir! We need more of the same from others. So far you are one up on me for the Pain-in-the-Posterior Award" and, of course I refer to your treatment at Sears and J.C. Penny. So far I have not been threatened with police action but a lot of eyes have gone red. I do not go to these jewellery stores to create a disturbance, as I am sure you don't either, but as soon as the owners and/or managers ask if magnetic chains are a problem with me I feel obligated to explain. I do not offer it or confront them with the interpretation, it serves no purpose when virtually the whole retail jewellery world seems to be involved in these problematic wares. It is the fear that is the source of the anger; it is the problem that they are suddenly presented with, one of integrity and ethics vying with loss of income.

It would seem almost certain that the bad metal involved in these chains is nickel. (The assay is just around the corner.) But I think we have a nickel based fraud in sterling silver jewellery that, based on my findings and those of others in Canada, the United States, (and Europe it seems, at least tentatively), -and a little research into the history of the industry - will reveal itself, as the dust settles, as the biggest sterling silver fraud in North American history. That, you will find, is not going to be hyperbole!

You have my admiration and thanks for persisting with this survey.
Best regards,

Galearis


Al Fulchino (9/15/02; 22:08:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 85168)
Misitech
I thank you for your response and agree wholeheartedly with your :

"Success achieved thus far was built on a far superior platform of ethics and values than has been carried out in the last 30 years or so"

Again, I thank you.



Truthcaster (9/15/02; 20:13:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 85167)
What Is Going On With The Dollar
Hi All-
What Is Up With The Dollar Tonight?
Very Weird Things Are Going On.. Why?
Truthcaster..


Waverider (9/15/02; 19:21:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 85166)
US Dollar Index
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=2
Interesting!

MK (9/15/02; 18:47:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 85165)
Mr. Gresham. . .#85163
I've been looking for that piece of the puzzle. Thanks.

Mr Gresham (9/15/02; 18:26:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 85164)
Doug Noland
http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Credit+Bubble+Bulletin&content_idx=15381
He's particularly full of detail on the financial meltdowns just gathering momentum behind the scenes, the big "player" institutions with rugs being jerked out from under their derivative calculations.

No, Doug, it's not boring to read, but yes, the meltdown will take on the tone of monotony after many months of the same scenes repeating. With big "Duh's" appearing on faces above suits and ties, worldwide. Not your/our faults, of course...


Mr Gresham (9/15/02; 18:03:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 85163)
What It's All About
http://msnbc.com/news/808209.asp?0dm=W13HB
Maybe I've been avoiding reading the news a little too much lately, but have they been this blunt about it before now? Pure Machiavellian (or Godfather -- "just business")

(And, yes, it is hard to come up with a counter-argument about why Saddam, or the Saudi Royals even, are entitled to the oil incomes either -- sort of an up-for-grabs situation if there ever was one, in this era approaching Hubbert's Peak)

From Washington Post:

"War could unshackle oil in Iraq

"U.S. drillers see potential for pool of petroleum

"A U.S.-LED OUSTER of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein could open a bonanza for American oil companies long banished from Iraq, scuttling oil deals between Baghdad and Russia, France and other countries, and reshuffling world petroleum markets, according to industry officials and leaders of the Iraqi opposition.

" Although senior Bush administration officials say they have not begun to focus on the issues involving oil and Iraq, American and foreign oil companies have already begun maneuvering for a stake in the country's huge proven reserves of 112 billion barrels of crude oil, the largest in the world outside Saudi Arabia."



kasperjack (9/15/02; 16:23:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 85162)
Falling LBMA Gold Volume
A possible explanation

"My assertion is that there is a falling LBMA gold and silver volume which can only be the result
of a departure from these markets of customers willing to sell their metal at inappropriately low
prices."-Sector

THE GOLD MINERS CLOSING OUT THEIR HEDGE BOOKS perchance?


G-khan (9/15/02; 15:33:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 85161)
I went and did some testing at Sears and JC Penny on their Sterling Silver!
I got asked to leave by the manager of Sears. This was in St. Cloud Minnesota and I then called the St. Cloud police. I was told by the sergeant on duty to call the MN Attorney General and report it. That is what I intend to do tomorrow...

I tested only 4 chains at JC Penny and one was magnetic and at Sears I tested about 4 before the manager threw me out and one was magnetic there also. At JC Penny I tested some earrings also 25 pair and all were magnetic. There is a problem for sure I am not sure what percent of the Sterling is fake but it seems much of it is..

I suggest to all to get a magnet and do some testing and report the offenders to the Attorney Generals of their respective states..

Silver is King



Belgian (9/15/02; 15:00:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 85160)
MK # 85155
Your (our) question : How would rising gold affect the very bullion banks ? My 2 milligrams, between the ears, on this :

All depends on "WHO" is making POG rise. And "HOW" this mover is doing it. Those from inside the gold club or no club members. Under normal conditions, no severe sacrifices will be necessary. Ashanti and Cambior are even still alive, for good reasons of course. JPM/C + GS + DB gold departments are club members and however naked (irresponsible) their derivative shorts are...they will keep on covering each other when a non gold club member should dare to pull the trigger. But as we repeated here many times : Why *force* POG, drastically and brutally higher when all gold players still watch each other's moves very carefully and all stay in lockstep with the derivative's (slowly declining official volume) discipline.

But the increasing POG vibration/frequencies, indicate that there is building nervousness, because of scarcer available physical and growing consensus on the depreciation escape valve. This to be compared with the present, though temporary, disciplined decline in stock market indexes, managed by the other departments of the same financial brotherhood. Deflate the bubble slow and easy. The collapse is only at the almost end of the unflating.
Look at the concerted discipline on the exchange rates and interest rates.

The LTCM accidental debacle was also perfectly amortisized as to prevent panic. It is the incredible power given to the financial brotherhood that was leading to the maniacal bubble and they take their responsibility to deflate it as nicely as possible. Allenspan got knighted for it (prematurely).

Where could the booby trap, possibly be hidden ? When the US and Euroland disagree to the extend that the divorce is irreversable. For instance when the hanging trade dispute and protectionism would escalate. Than economical (financial) war may break loose and any previous silent agreement on exchange rates might be discarded with the use of the gold weapon (amongst other economical weapons) as a consequence. War means victims. All gold shorts will bleed.
POG is let free and fully delivered at the real market forces. The gap ! Than "americanism" will be disapproved and we separate. You used the right word for it : divorce !

This theory is running at Leuven University (Belgium) where even Allenspan made a speech a couple of years ago.

Yes indeed Sir Kosares, w've come to the point of realizing that currency wars, to dominate, have their limits and that w're very close to this limits of mass destruction (whoops).
Financial exhuberance *was* great fun. Now we are caring for the hang over. It took us 20 years (Euroland) to agree on monetary discipline and in this crucial period, w're not going to recidive into old bad habbits of exhuberant deficit
spending. I'm afraid the dollar isn't able to do the same to the same extend and Euroland remains supportive for the time being. But if Bush choses for more and more protectionism...heads must and will roll.

The importance of the gold club will be curtailed and they know it. That's why the euro-word doesn't even get over their lips. Bedtime for Eurolanders.








kasperjack (9/15/02; 12:01:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 85159)
Topaz
I will get around to studying them shortly. I know full well a decline in the dollar has an impact on the price of gold. I also know some very respected technical analysts have established golds real value relative to the valuation of the dollar at somewhere between $600 DOLLARS per ounce and much higher. Even when you incorporate Soros statement that the dollar should be devalued by 40%(We are already 10 or 12% of the way there) against the Euro(I presume) I cannot currently envisage the establishment of a Euro-dollar exchange rate that reflects golds real value.i.e. a euro valued at 1 to anywhere up to 4 times the dollar. Ergo The bankers or a war or a default or world economic bankruptcy would upset the whole financial applecart before that could happen. What I am saying is the current alterations in the artificially established Dollar-Euro exchange rate may have some impact on the pricing of gold but they are artificial changes that bear no resemblance to golds, the euros or the dollars real values. Gold is suppressed and manipulated for the betterment of the world economy heh heh. Therefore I would argue that the changes in the gold price have less to do with the alteration in the exchange rates than with Supply demand factors such as the gold miners buying back their hedges. i.e. real demand quaking beneath the fixers feet. Think of all the dollars that have been printed since sept 11. Think of the neverending budget and trade deficits. Yet the dollar Euro rate stands relatively impervious in the face of a decade and more long flood of American fiat. What kind of fools gold is this whose value can be made to orbit around the Euro-dollar exchange rates.

Sierra Madre (9/15/02; 11:42:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 85158)
Sector and Belgian, fascinating insights! More as they come...

Sector: I - simple private spectator - feel that the departure of HSBC from gold trading in Hong Kong is very significant, although I do not understand the reasons fully. (I am not an "initiate into the mysteries"). But when one of the largest banks in the world says "I Pass", there must be some powerful reasons. How come a huge bank says it will no longer trade a "barbarous relic" with "no importance whatsoever in the present day world"?

As you say, they pass because...too dangerous? It puts their own holdings in jeopardy? The "price" is not the real price and they don't want to be caught with their fingers in the door, so to speak?

About simultaneous devaluation: I have written words about that previously. Simultaneous devaluation does not work at all. Devaluation, to correct the MASSIVE trade imbalances of the US, would have to be not-simultaneous, that is to say, gold MUST rise much more in terms of US dollars, and less so in terms of other currencies, in order for world trade to settle into a more realistic pattern.

I am in Mexico. There is no way that imports from Mexico to the US, can be brought down to balance (and Heaven help Mexico if they are!) without a severe devaluation of the dollar vis a vis the peso. And that can't be done as things stand at present, IMO, because since the dollar is our Reserve Currency, the peso goes down with any dollar depreciation. As HSP is saying, the peso is a derivative of the dollar. Ergo, no devaluation of the dollar is possible. I suspect this condition prevails against most (all?) currencies.

"A fine dilemma, we have here,
That calls for all our wit,
For all our wit!"

Now that world depression is a threat, it becomes impossible to persuade any country to allow its currency to rise vs. the dollar. That would kill what exports there are!
The ONLY way left, is for chaos to set in, and a general fright leading to gold hoarding - an outbreak of a gold panic - and at the end, a new spectrum of diverse higher prices for gold around the world, expressed in national currencies. A staggering new situation for economies around the world!

I am watching and waiting for that breakdown. HSBC a presage?

Sierra


sector (9/15/02; 10:53:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 85157)
@MK My LBMA work and How Options Keep POG Down
Actially I'm interested in the continuing drop in overall volume...
...on both the LBMA silver and gold markets. The effect of a rising options volume on POG is the purview of Don Lindley, who is the only person outside the cabal who has captured the entire COMEX derivative spectrum on a single spreadsheet. He can tell on balance the "Tilt" of the COMEX at any given instant by measuring ALL it's positions and therefore has a clue as to the future movement of pog.

Arrayed against Linley's efforts is the invisible OTC market actions which is 9X bigger. That's where the hidden movements are that we all would like to see.

My assertion is that there is a falling LBMA gold and silver volume which can only be the result of a departure from these markets of customers willing to sell their metal at inappropriately low prices. The remainder of trades are "Official" in nature. The LBMA represents, to an increasing degree, the trades of central banks.

Belgian rightly asks who will benefit when the manipulation stops? The answer depends upon who can wrest legal ownership of all the loaned gold [12,000 - 15,000 tonnes]. A morass of legal filings, a cloud of confusion can be imagined.

in the end for people here and possibly some bright hedge funds, actual ownership of gold is the ticket to wealth preservation. Who wants to immerse themselves in a claims battle over leased gold or possession rights to an options contract? Whatever profits garnered from options may be eaten up by legal expenses or lost altogether due to a COMEX default.

The simultaneous devaluation of World currencies via inflation is upon us, therefore Gold's price will [And IS rising rise in all currencies as measured by the Dollar Index price of gold].

I have been very interested in detecting any new facts that may add to the mystery of cabal tactics. I place some extra weight on HSBC's recent decision to exit Hong Kong gold trading last week. My conclusion is that they did this because they value their considerable physical holdings greater than the current market prices...this is the exact mechanism that is contributing to a fall in LBMA gold volume.

If HSBC is unwilling to sell gold at today's prices then we can be sure that other central banks are unwilling too. That leads us to the further conclusion that a strategy may exist to somehow mitigate this situation and lead to a near-term rise in the price of gold [If there is already in place a cabal strategy of gradual POG rises, then HSBC would simply adhere to it instead of departing the gold trade in Hong Kong].

As time passes there is more and more information available to undercut the cabal's manipulation efforts. It is that information accumulation that attracts more and more speculators to the COMEX and LBMA to drive POG higher. It is an inexorable process that is known as the free market.




Old Yeller (9/15/02; 10:43:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 85156)
Foreign central banks

Stand ready to buy increasing amounts of JPM'should the price fall.

To everything,turn,turn.


MK (9/15/02; 10:08:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 85155)
Belgian #85153
Very interesting post to say the least.

Your observation: "If the US and Euroland, someday, behind their growing differences, suddenly, agree that there must be inflation to overcome our deadlocked stocking economy...they will both give the gold club the go ahead to induce
inflation by letting POG go."

My addition: I believe they may have already agreed to that since the Big Three -- Europe, Japan and the United States -- are engaging in an obvious "in-tandem" depreciation of their currencies -- a deadly Currency Ballet. Instead of defending one's currency as many would believe a State/local central bank might find in their long term best interest to do, the Big Three instead enter into operations to defend the other country's currency thus cheapening their own. To me, that is the ultimate prescription for worldwide currency inflation.

I would think, my dear Belgian, that this strategy would carry financial repercussions of its own. For instance, how would rising gold affect the very bullion banks -- part of the "financial brotherhood" -- engaged in the price manipulation on the short side? Do you believe they are willing to take severe losses and drag some gold banks and hedge funds under water in order to save the "System"?? Will the bullion bank gold departments (and that part of the income statement) become sacrificial lambs?

All from your view, of course. . . . .

NOTE: I would suggest to the Table that Belgian's #85153 is worth careful attention.


Christian (9/15/02; 08:06:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 85154)
The Gold Cartel
Commodity Gold trades at $320 + or - and between central banks credit creation gold trades for $9,000 + or -. There is no difference in the make up of commodity gold or credit creation gold. The only difference is the use of that gold. Credit creation gold does not trade on the COMEX. However credit creation gold is traded on the OTC. The reason commodity gold is manipulated is so commodity gold does not compete with credit creation gold. The bulk of new debt is now intermediatiated through the unregulated OTC credit markets by debt securitization. Credit card companies, insurance companies, mutual funds, and most companies doing business like GE, Ford, GM, IBM, and 1000's of other companies are in the debt securization business. All of these debt securitization entities be it banks, insurance companies, GE, GM, etc, etc use those debt proceeds and account for them as income in order to create new debt for another entity to buy that entity's production be it a product or service. Last week Jack Welsh was on Wall Street Week with Forbes and he had the guts to come out with a lot of truth but he missed out a very important information that all share holders of all companies, states and even the federal government should provide. During his reign at GE he increased the off balance sheet gold debt by 14 times. He used off balance sheet gold borrowing to enhance share holder value. Greenspan himself in his attempt to pay down debt and enlarge the economy under the Clinton Administration have used off balance sheet debt to do just that. He used it to create the greatest asset inflation ever in the telecome industry. Fueled with mergers and aquisitions and my massive injection of debt of which most is off balance sheet gold borrowing. Japan did it with real estate and the US did it with telecome. The telecome inflation spread to real estate. The growth taken on by the GSE's is phenominal. All built on off balance sheet credit creation gold. Every borrower uses his own signature and his collateral or collateral to be to bring that money into circulation. Banks like corporations or credit cards do not use their money to make loans. It's the customers signature and collateral that credit creation possible. Credit creation gold is used to control that credit creation flow.

Belgian (9/15/02; 07:00:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 85153)
The Gold Oligarchy.....vieuwed by an amateur.
An integrated / inter-relating network of (major)goldminers > banks/financiers > politicians, operating as a powerfull club with a maximum of loyal members of the same community.
The gold club (not cabal) has not the power of an economic cartel, because it is political bounded. That's what makes this club so specific. The gold club offers its services in exchange for huge profits and security (relative immunity).

The gold club received the political directions to contain Gold and POG. Since the US and Euroland are on the path of increased disparity...we can start to question the gold club's "utility" for both currency blocks. Disparity is about the future of ME crude oil reserves, the $/€ exchange rate and difference in opinion as how to tackle global, very dangerous, decline in growth gravely handicapped with the proliferating debt .

I leave it in the middle if the gold club is fully aware of the risks it is running to lose its very old immunity and protection. As long as Gold remains UN-transparant, the gold club is still usefull and practical as element within the integrated financial brotherhood.

Please do remember that a lot of very *normal* questions about gold remain unanswered. Who is selling physical investment gold to who ? We have not the slightiest idea about who is trading the equivalent of most probably more than a thousand tonnes PER DAY on the paper gold contract markets (LBMA/TOCOM/COMEX/under the ledger market). Where did all CB (WA and other) gold, go ? Who is buying the Swiss 1 tonne a day ? The gold club knows ! It stays within the club whilst huge profits are made on the derivatives with POG's directional moves known to the major mover on the paper markets.

But the club is facing a problem that is disturbing their daily operational habits. All cartels/quasi monopolists do encounter challengers. The scarcer available physical gold becomes the more impact that smaller challengers (housewifes for example) will get. Chinese have never been counted upon as loyal gold club members...and Russia + ME + Euroland, are giving their gold-loyalty second thoughts.

The gold club knows it is vulnarable and is not as stupid as we might dream. They anticipate the possible worst and accumulate the physical in possession within their ranks. Even if this means plundering community (state) gold.

The gold club knows that one day they will be victim of their own past succes. I don't dare to speculate if the club will be discarded as the taliban (or any other example) was, by those who offered them a certain immunity ?

If the physical gold, circulates within the gold club (wich I do suspect)...they (the club) has certainly a net profit on the derivative business and keeps the physical in the house. Sort of having the butter and the money of the butter. When they wanted to exagerate with the POG under 200$ (greedy boys)...the WA scared them adequately.

Yes, it is only a theory and at first sight not very new from the, up until now, developped -cabal- thing. But I came to this theory from a much different angle and the possible future will be somewhat different :

If the US and Euroland, someday, behind their growing differences, suddenly, agree that there must be inflation to overcome our deadlocked stocking economy...they will both give the gold club the go ahead to induce inflation by letting POG go. Higher POG, good for taking away euro-inflation (depreciation), bad for the almighty US dollar's purchasing power. Difficult choice, isn't it. For the US, Euroland and their joint gold club operative. One feasting with profits and the other having no other choice than to swallow the pill. Gold and crude oil the political tangibles par excellence.


Topaz (09/15/02; 03:37:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 85152)
kasperjack, a small concession.
http://finance.yahoo.com/m5?s=XAU&t=EUR&a=1&c=1
The E/Pog chart does indeed show an upswing in the 1st half...however it appears to be back under wraps now don't you think?

Topaz (09/15/02; 02:36:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 85151)
kasperjack
Sorry about the links kasperjack, try these.
http://finance.yahoo.com/m5?s=EUR&t=USD&a=1&c=1
http://finance.yahoo.com/m5?s=XAU&t=USD&a=1&c=1


Topaz (09/15/02; 02:28:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 85150)
kasperjack
http://finance.yahoo.com/m5?s=XAU&t=USD&a=1&c=1...http://finance.yahoo.com/m5?&a=1&s=EUR&t=USD&c=1
Just returned home Sir, try these on for size and tell me you don't see the similarity.
You'll recall during the last several Mth's the publics attention has been directed toward Gold in a manner reminiscent of the Y2K scare (even moreso) yet PoG basically behaves itself in line with other "currencies".

I hope I didn't come across as condescending kasperjack, maybe a little frustrated with things as they are..forgive me if I did so and regards to you too.



Blackjack (09/15/02; 01:53:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 85149)
Digital Gold : The future of Money?
http://www.goldeconomy.com/article.php?sid=107
Great article on the future of money. Digital accounts based
on gold on deposit. Free from fiat madness by irresponsible
politicians who would mortgage our future so they can get
re-elected today. Look at Argentina today. Link above.


Blackjack (09/15/02; 01:17:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 85148)
I also like Maple Leafs
@Mikal > Money leaving South America may run to US Dollars
or Euros. Into US bonds lets say. Trouble is, with huge deficits
coming, interest rates may have to go up, killing bonds.

As Sinclair points out, we have deflation in most asset classes, but inflation in commodities. Either way, I want to have some silver coins.

Will the Argentina situation happen here? Very remote possibilty.
However our total debt is over 6 Trillion and growing fast.

How will the feds pay for boomer social security , guv employee
pensions, unemployment, health care... not to mention terror war costs with a shrinking tax base?Scary.




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