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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...

The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 7/15/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Black Blade (07/15/01; 23:15:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 58151)
As The Implosion Begins . . .?
http://www.levy.org/docs/sreport/implos.html

Prospects and Policies for the U.S. Economy: A Strategic View

Snippit:

The U.S. economy is probably now in recession, and a prolonged period of subnormal growth and rising unemployment is likely unless there is another round of policy changes. A further relaxation of fiscal policy will probably be needed, but if a satisfactory rate of growth is to be sustained, this will have to be complemented by measures that raise U.S. exports relative to imports.

Black Blade: Long but interesting read on the state of the US economy from the Levy Institute. Pulls in a lot of information and paints a not so rosy picture. Time could be running short and cheap gold as insurance may soon be a thing of the past. Perhaps the game is afoot.


Black Blade (07/15/01; 23:05:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 58150)
Global recession is on, Wall Street economist declares
http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/story.html?f=/stories/20010714/618447.html

Roach points to world's 2.4% GDP growth

Snippit:

No doubt about it, we are now in a global recession, a leading Wall Street economist reported yesterday. "We have been warning of this possibility since the start of the year, but now it's time to make it official ... the global economy is in recession," Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley's chief economist, said in his submission to the investment bank's daily economic outlook, entitled A World in Recession. Mr. Roach, who has earned a reputation as one of the biggest bears on Wall Street over the past 18 months but also as one of its most accurate forecasters, said the International Monetary Fund defines a global recession as occurring when the world's Gross Domestic Product growth drops below 2.5%. "First came last fall's spike in energy prices," Mr. Roach said. "Then came the most devastating blow of all -- an unwinding of the U.S. [information technology] boom. Another downleg in world equity markets added insult to injury, especially in wealth-dependent economies such as the United States. "The rest is now history -- an inventory correction, the earnings carnage, intensified corporate cost cutting and global reverberations of these largely American-made shocks. It was only a matter of time before the world economy crossed into recession territory. That time is now."

Black Blade: As we have said here. The recession is on.


SHIFTY (07/15/01; 22:22:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 58149)
Periodic Ponzi Update PPU
http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm
Periodic Ponzi Update

Nasdaq 2,084.79 + Dow 10,539.06 = 12,623.85 divide by 2 = 6,311.92 Ponzi

Up 183.50 from last week.

Sir RossL: Thanks for the link!


The latest survey shows that
three out of four people make
up 75% of the population.
:-)

$hifty






Canuck (07/15/01; 20:55:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 58148)
@ USAGOLD
Not trying to split hairs but...............

Mr. Privateer is hounding on Netking on infringing on his site and...................

Mr. Privateer has refered (and promoted?) his site at least twice. We've been down this road before, no?

Canuck (07/15/01; 20:31:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 58147)
All
This one was 'pasted' into the permanent personal Hall of Fame;

I named it "Gold's Rally: When not If", enjoy!!

By: Paul van Eeden

A few weeks ago, the gold price had a short-lived rally and then promptly collapsed again to its previous trading range. If you bear with me for a few minutes, I will show you why gold's failure to sustain its recent rally is confirmation that our model of the gold price is intact and that the potential rise in the price of gold, which we anticipate, could occur at any moment.
Around February 20, gold lease rates started increasing, rising from the sub one per cent level to reach as much as 6.3 per cent on March. Analysis of the lease rates showed that this was a short squeeze rally and as such, was unlikely to last very long, or go very far. One-month lease rates increased the most, rising from just over one per cent to more than six per cent. Two-month lease rates increased to over 4.5 per cent and twelve-month lease rates increased to only 2.7 per cent. From this, it was clear that there existed a short-term demand for gold and not a long-term demand, a classic indication of a short squeeze.

Furthermore, this short squeeze coincided with a Bank of England gold auction and there were rumours in the market that gold loans, which were due around that time, would not be rolled over, which means that the borrower would have to come up with physical gold to repay the loan. While I cannot substantiate this rumour, it does not seem unreasonable because on the day of the gold auction, Tuesday March 13, one-month lease rates declined by 24 per cent and by the end of the week, the lease rate had declined by 62 per cent from its high. It appears that whomever needed the gold, needed it badly and quickly. The gold was either bought at the auction to cover the short position, or one of the buyers at the auction made gold available as a loan to cover the short position.

It is important to note that the Bank of England auction dates are set long in advance, which means that the auction was not a response to rising gold prices and the prevailing short squeeze.

But the gold price quickly returned to its previous trading range in the low $260's. It was quite obvious that this would occur because during that time the US dollar was stable against foreign currencies, actually rising by 0.11 per cent. "So what?" you might say.

Well, the point is that gold is quoted in US dollars and in spite of what many people would have us believe, gold is not a commodity. Gold is money, pure and simple. Because of this, gold responds to exchange rate changes just like other currencies such as dollars, yen, euros and pounds. The market for gold as money is so much larger than the industrial market for gold, that it completely overshadows it. In order to understand the gold price, we have to understand its relationship to the US dollar and its dependence on the US dollar exchange rate. (See related story, "Understanding Gold").

Where is the dollar heading?

That begs the question, where is the dollar heading? Surely with all that is going on the United States the dollar should have been dethroned by now and taken a tumble, so why is it so strong?

During the past eleven years, foreigners have invested approximately $1.7 trillion dollars in the United States. In fact, it is precisely because of this tremendous amount of foreign investment that the US economy got such a boost during the 1990's. Our economic miracle is the result of cheap foreign capital and not the genius of Greenspan, Clinton or any of the "new era" technologies that supposedly increased productivity, etc. etc. This influx of capital is also why the dollar has been so strong and since the US dollar gold price is just a reflection of the US dollar, it is also why the gold price has been so weak. A strong dollar has more buying power and hence as the dollar strengthened, it also strengthened against gold.

Foreigners poured their savings into the US because of financial and economic malaise around the world. The US economy was perceived to be stronger and growing faster than most other large countries and the financial risk in the US was perceived to be relatively low. But this was in essence a self-fulfilling prophecy; as money poured into the US, the US economy grew stronger and in part because US imports also surged to unprecedented levels, the strong dollar kept inflation under control. In return this stimulated more foreign investment that further fueled the US economy.

But now it seems as if the party is finally over. US economic growth is slowing down, inflation is rearing its ugly head and the Federal Reserve is increasing the US money supply by more than 20 per cent per year in order to fight off a recession. Layoffs are rampant and profits are disappearing like mist under the morning sun. US interest rates are falling and that means not only has the US economic miracle been discredited, US economic growth is now projected to be about half as much as Europe's while US interest rates are fast converging with Europe's. These are both extremely important issues.

In order for the US dollar to weaken, and hence the gold price to rise, money has to flow from the US to another destination. The question is where? Japan's banking woes are far from over and Japanese economic growth is still lacking. It is unlikely that much capital will move from the US to Japan until Japan's banking crisis is resolved and its economy shows signs of life. Strangely, while the capital trapped in the US is unlikely to flow to Japan, if it did, it would create another self-fulfilling prophecy since the capital influx would stimulate the Japanese economy and strengthen the yen. But the banking sector remains problematic.

That essentially leaves only Europe as an alternative investment destination. For a while it looked as if the euro had finally bottomed out and was poised to rise, giving the world an alternative to the US dollar. But the euro faltered and hence the dollar's strength was preserved, which is why the price of gold could not sustain the short rally of a few weeks ago.

Euro is the final folly

The introduction of the euro may one day be perceived to have been the final folly of a era infatuated with fiat currencies. The euro is the ultimate fiat currency. As Doug Casey would say: "it is a floating abstraction". But nonetheless, the euro is the only real competition that the dollar has and until the European community, and particularly the European Central Bank, can convince investors that the euro is dependable, the dollar is bound to remain supreme.

Just like with Japan though, there is a bit of a chicken-and-egg situation. With the decline in the US economy and US interest rates, the US is no longer vastly more attractive than Europe. But that hasn't made European investments attractive enough. However, if some of the capital currently tied up in the United States was to move across the Atlantic, it would give the European economy a boost and increase the euro relative to the dollar. This almost happened at the end of last year when the euro rallied approximately 15% against the dollar.

But then European consumer confidence fell, the economy sputtered, inflation fears were rekindled and the euro rally lost momentum. Europe has long dreamed of an economic block able to compete with the United States and a currency able to compete with the dollar as a reserve currency. This is what the euro is supposed to be, but it hasn't passed muster yet. It is important to remember that in this environment of managed currencies, it is not always absolute value that is important, but relative value. Furthermore, because we are dealing with fiat currencies there is no intrinsic value, only perceived value; and perceptions can change overnight.

It is absolutely impossible to predict what could or would or will cause investors to change their relative perception of the dollar versus the euro, but I believe that whatever it is, it will happen sooner rather than later. In the US we have had nothing but good fortune and good news for almost two decades; the probability of bad news surprises outweigh the probability of good news surprises. In Europe almost exactly the opposite is true.

Furthermore, the outrageous US trade deficit and reliance on foreign capital is an overwhelming force that puts tremendous pressure on the dollar to decline. It is only because of all the economic and financial turmoil throughout the rest of the world that the US dollar has been able to remain so strong. With perhaps only a few exceptions, it now appears as if most of the bad news that the rest of the world has suffered from is behind us. Therefore it seems likely that the next major currency crisis will be that of the US dollar. The US dollar has to decrease in order to restore balance to the world's foreign trade flow and that is ultimately the dollar's Achilles' heel.

Short squeeze of magnificent proportions

So in order for the gold price to sustain a rally in terms of US dollars, we will need to see the dollar weaken against foreign currencies. Overprinting gold's price movements will be the volatility introduced by speculators, large buyers and sellers but most importantly, the physical short position that has been exposed by the work of Frank Veneroso. If Veneroso is only partially correct, we could see a short squeeze of magnificent proportions develop in the gold market. In the mean time, there could be many smaller short squeezes that play havoc on the gold price and the emotions of gold investors. It is difficult not to get excited about a gold price rally when you are long up to your eyeballs in gold related investments, but until we see the dollar decline, I am afraid that any gold price rally will be short lived. On the other hand, I believe a decline in the dollar is not only unavoidable, it could happen any day now.


Canuck (07/15/01; 20:23:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 58146)
@ BB
Thanks for the notes on Placer this week-end.

The plot thickens.....................

Black Blade (07/15/01; 19:54:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 58145)
RE: Sierra Madre

Your post reminds me of the wall poster that resembles the parchment with the "Bill of Rights" inscribed and large red warning emblazoned across that reads "Except Where Prohibited By Law." Cheers!

- Black Blade


auspec (07/15/01; 18:36:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 58144)
Belgian #58116
Your not so childish Dream
"My childish 1 million kilograms of individual Gold {1,000 tonnes} accumulation........"
My friend, your dreams are becoming reality, you may have missed an announcement or so during your holiday. This 1,000 tonnes can go into the hands of your 'Giants' or into the hands of 1,000,000 Lilliputans, we should care not, just take it off the market into strong hands.
GATA's Bill Murphy has come out with reports that 250 tonnes or more have recently been accumulated by large players {the last couple months at most}. Now, where would one find this amount of 'above ground' gold????? Big question! Wrong question! One does NOT find this amount of 'above ground' gold, at least not that anyone can verify. I dare say one cannot purchase it through CPM, would that they could, or through COMEX, or through any source I know of, at least nowhere near the paper controlled POG {maybe the right people could get a good fill up via LBMA, but where would that leave LBMA, but like COMEX?}. So, where do they get 250 tonnes of precious if not above ground? Yes, indeed, below ground! Unincumbered future {near term] production, the gold that MANY sources are counting on being available these next 12 months. Murphy has stated this according to very reliable sources, and I am taking him fully at his word alone. There is no reason not to, imho.
If 250 tonnes are gone and people are scrambling around trying to pick up smaller pieces, your gold rush is on. The physical is not available and a significant amount of the next 12 months of production is being squirreled away. You and I both know that there is future gold production that is fully and permanently allocated into the hands of those that have interest in keeping POG down. That will not cease being an issue, and HomoBarricans is mere consolidation in that camp. So an ongoing scramble is happening for future gold production, scrambles usually come about because of shortages and end up in bidding contests. Let the games begin.
This 250 tonnes is what % of 12 mos. production? This is only the beginning of this process. The unincumbered gold is getting grabbed, and the incumbered gold has already been grabbed, hmmmmmmmmm, where does that leave us? Where would you look for gold after you couldn't find any more through 6-1-02? Seems like 03 comes after 02, no? THE SNOWBALL, THE SNOWBALL, LOOK OUT MY FRIEND......AVALANCHE! You certainly have sources that may shed further light on this phenomenon, will be interested in anything you come up with.
Regards across the pond,
auspec



megatron (07/15/01; 18:33:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 58143)
Element of risk
Investing in these backwater countries like Argentina is a crap shoot at the best of times, even for someone with their finger on the trigger ,like me. And that's just stupid little equities. Bond traders are touted as the 'intelligencia' of the investing world, so if that is true, they MUST KNOW they will be backstopped, no matter what, or else the risk/reward ratio is ludicrous. This is another glaring potential reason why the scum must keep gold on a short leash. It also makes me wonder how widely held are these issues? It will turn out just like Orange County, paper it over. Life goes on. Amazing!

Max Rabbitz (07/15/01; 18:15:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 58142)
"Deep Storage" Speculation and Argentina
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/chapman071601.html
From Chapman: "Our sources tell us there is tremendous support for gold at $265 an ounce. The gold syndicate is there catching not reaching as yet. Lease rates are back to 1% so there is a big bank-offering rates. It could be as a last resort that the US Treasury may be the offeree, secretly disposing of America's gold in order to keep the monetary system afloat."

Max: If true these sales or leases may need to be matched with mine reserves (or derivatives on them?) to cover the dirty deed in the accounting books. Homestake gold reserves may be perfect for this as gold under U.S. jurisdiction would be preferred. If J.P. Morgan is the governments bank then Barrick is it's gold miner(?). If so we may have a little more time to accumulate. But earthquakes and volcanoes are so hard to predict.

Also, with regard to Argentina. I agree with Megatron that there will likely be a bail out and more U.S. paper will be printed, as per Chapter 2 of "The Creature from Jekyll Island" by Griffin. J.P. Morgan- Chase Bank is a major holder of the Argintine debt. I wonder if Morgan has some services it could provide to the government in return for a little debt support. President Bush just made his first visit to New York and met with both Senators, on Ellis Island not Rikers. Just to honor immigrants? It appears Bush is against a bailout but ........... the inflation indexed bond had a good gain last Friday in marked contrast to other bonds despite the low Producer Price Index and "no inflation on the horizon.".


barnacle bill (07/15/01; 17:11:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 58141)
Trurl Msg 58118
Some New Age folks like gold
This sounds like the 'white powder of gold'. Quite interesting.

Belgian (07/15/01; 16:54:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 58140)
@ HBM
A 2 hours work on an extensive reflexion on your questions has been lost due to server problems. But its bedtime and hope to find some time later on. Sorry.

Turnaround (07/15/01; 16:50:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 58139)
Black Blade- iron fertilization

Black Blade (07/15/01; 13:16:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 58129)
RE: HBM and Turnaround

"Turnaround

The article is a combination of material that I compiled ...For example I am not aware of the iron fertilzation in blue water ocean experiments that you describe. Maybe it did not fit into someone's political agenda. It sounds intriguing though. ..."

Thank you for the clarification. Mr. Martin is the gentleman I was thinking of earlier today. If I remember rightly, his funding was pulled unexpectedly, right after he returned some fantastic results. It didn't fit the "scientific consensus".
The idea is to sequester the CO2 in the form of plankton (ok, phytoplankton), part of which die and drop to the eocen floor.

http://earth.agu.org/revgeophys/chisho00/node3.html

"Thus, only those who have the analytical capability to measure extremely low concentrations of iron in seawater can be assured unequivocal results, and be convincing in this debate.
"Indeed, even though Martin's bottle incubations repeatedly showed that the phytoplankton in the iron-enriched bottles were stimulated relative to the controls (a result that is difficult to explain with anything other than the iron-limitation hypothesis) he still had his skeptics (see Chisholm and Morel, 1991). With the dogged determination that was his trademark, he decided to put an end to the debate once and for all and enrich a patch of the ocean with iron to see how the phytoplankton would respond when the food web was intact. Martin calculated that one could easily add more than enough iron to 100 km of ocean to stimulate the phytoplankton, provided there was enough N and P around. As we have already discussed, in the equatorial Pacific and the Southern Ocean, N and P are abundant. Working in the Southern Ocean is a logistical nightmare for oceanographers, and the availability of sunlight is unpredictable, thus Martin decided on the equatorial Pacific (near the Galapagos Islands) as the site for the experiment. "

Also see:
http://ublib.buffalo.edu/libraries/projects/cases/iron_case/geritol_notes.html

http://www.cnn.com/2001/NATURE/01/23/paradise.dump/index.html

and cheers to you!

Sierra Madre (07/15/01; 16:40:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 58138)
That was the way it was....

With all due respect;

The U.S. Constitution is DEAD. Has been dead for quite a while. Forget invoking the Constitution.

U.S. Senate and Congress are a farce, and have been for quite a while.

The President of the U.S. is a puppet, and etc.

These are the new times. HUMANITY IS ABOLISHED.

Time to recognize the facts.

Sierra

Mexpat (07/15/01; 16:23:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 58137)
Deep Storage Gold
http://www.fms.treas.gov/gold/index.html
I've noticed some speculation recently on the meaning of "deep storage" gold. At the above link you will find the following Dept. of the Treasury page. It contains links to the Status Reports of U.S. Treasury-Owned Gold each month back to January of 2000. At the bottom of the May 31,2001 report you will find the Treasury definition of "deep storage".

According to the Treasury web page...

The Status Report of U.S. Treasury-Owned Gold (Gold Report) reflects gold bullion and gold coins owned by the Federal Government identified by facility and program. The Gold Report summarizes the total gold bullion and gold coins in fine troy ounces and the book value, in addition to providing a description of the various programs reported by each facility. The book value is currently $42.2222 per troy ounce.

The Gold Report includes gold coins and bullion on display at Federal Reserve Banks; coins and bullion in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; and gold held by U.S. Mint facilities.

The information used to compile these reports is derived from monthly and daily reporting from the U.S. Mint, Federal Reserve Banks, and FMS.

Definitions:(located at bottom of 5-31-01 report)

Deep Storage Gold - formerly called Gold Bullion Reserve or Custodial Gold Bullion Reserve. This gold is owned by the U.S. Government and held for safekeeping by the U.S. Mint at the locations listed.

Working Stock - formerly listed as specific coins and blanks or called "PEF Gold." This is the portion of U.S. Government owned gold that is used as the operating inventory for minting gold coins. Working stock includes bars, blanks, and finished coins.

The May 31, 2001 report shows 261,558,766 oz. of Total Treasury Owned Gold and specifies the locations where it is stored.

Is all this gold really there, in the locations specified?

¿Quien sabe?

Mexpat



Black Blade (07/15/01; 15:07:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 58136)
The Truth About Global Warming
http://www.msnbc.com/news/600567.asp

Snippit:

Climate researcher Lindzen remained steadfastly on the fringe. Back then he took issue with the notion that the earth is headed for catastrophe, and nothing has happened in a decade of climate research to convince him otherwise. With the Kyoto plan to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions effectively dead and environmentalists up in arms, Lindzen, Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, has become the most well-respected voice of dissent. Colleagues praise his scientific work and do not assign political motives. And yet his scientific views have led him, a Democrat, into the lonely position of defending George W. Bush's Kyoto stance. "Bush is guilty of nothing more than being honest," he says. "There's no current Western leader who's as well informed on the issue as Bush, as strange as that may seem. European politicians are just using Kyoto for cheap virtue."

Lindzen may raise his colleagues’ hackles by criticizing their science, but when it comes to politics, he strikes a chord. Last week the Independent, the British newspaper, summarized the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a United Nations-sponsored group: "Global warming is happening now, caused by human actions, and threatens the Earth with disaster, the world's leading atmospheric scientists insisted yesterday." This is news to Lindzen, who literally is one of those scientists. He was coauthor of the IPCC report, but did not participate in writing the widely cited "summary for policymakers." "The ‘consensus of scientists’ is a very weird thing," he says. "The summary is written by 14 of the hundreds of scientists that contributed. Is that a consensus? I don't think so." Many scientists agree that the IPCC, in its zeal to build the case for doing something about global warming, plays fast and loose with the science, glossing over uncertainty and pushing its conclusions too far.

Black Blade: Good article with much more information on the questionable data and computer modeling, which is precisely my point. Kyoto is a bad treaty that would hobble the US economy, raise the costs of energy several fold, and force the people of the US to live under Third World conditions.

megatron (07/15/01; 14:57:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 58135)
The more things change.......Plus ce la change'
Does this sound like anyone you know :^)

. In 1694, "King Billy's War" was underway and William III needed money to outfit the Channel fleet. In exchange for a loan of £1.2 million, he issued a charter for the Bank of England, which advanced him the money.

Maybe he should have issued them pardons too.

Where are the people that voted for Clinton?

Privateer (07/15/01; 14:54:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 58134)
The Economic Fundamentals
http://www.the-privateer.com
Netking (msg#58127) That's the second unattributed quotation from the latest issue of The Privateer that I've seen you post here.

Please note, The Privateer is COPYRIGHT. If you like what you read, please say so and post the URL.

The other point I would make is that the quote, while it can indeed stand alone, would be more relevant if read in context with the rest of what is a five page global report.

Tree in the Forest (07/15/01; 14:24:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 58133)
The UN: murderers as evil as Hitler

Q: What, if any, U.N. involvement was there in the Rwandan massacres?

A: There was a lot of U.N. involvement and this should really be of interest to most Americans as we approach the small-arms conference. The Rwandan genocide, which was one of the intensive genocides in history – 800,000 to 1,000,000 people slaughtered in the most hideous ways in 103 days. That is an incredible slaughter.

Q: Hold on. I thought the U.N. was supposed to stop stuff like that?

A: Yeah. Well, the thing that is amazing is that the Canadian, General DeLair, who was in charge of the United Nations so-called peace-keeping force there, went to Kofi Annan, who was at that time assistant secretary general, before he was elevated, and he said, "Hey, we have an informant from the Rwandan government (the Hutu) who says they have drawn up a list of all the Tutsi tribes there and they are going to slaughter them." Kofi Annan told him to turn over the informant to the Rwandan government that was planning the slaughter. And he told the general not to do anything about it.

Q: What?

A: So here we have the man who is standing in the position of the exalted conscience of the world, Kofi Annan, was really (in my opinion) an indictable criminal in that whole slaughter.

Beyond that, the people of Rwanda had already been disarmed – much like we are being asked or told we must disarm. The slaughter was enabled there by the disarmament. All of the victims had no firearms. The killers, in many cases were armed with just machetes and spears.

Q: That's all they needed.

A: That's all they needed. In those few instances, where the victims were able to get firearms, they were able to avert a great deal of more bloodshed. Poor General DeLair was almost driven to insanity and despair as a result of being told that he and his men had to basically stand aside and watch the slaughter.


Hill Billy Mitchell (07/15/01; 14:15:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 58132)
No one except Argentina is crying yet
TPTB will do whatever is necessary to prevent Argentine default, not to save Argentina, but to prevent bank losses.

There is not even a pretense that concern arises for the people of Argentina this time around. They no longer even have to hide the fact that the banks are the concern. They know that the general population neither cares or knows what is going on. The sheeple's only concern will be when the music stops for them. They will not have long for this. Lots of unpublicized jobs have dissappeared and consumer spending cannot continue without stagflation. We all remember how it feels to have high inflation with the attendant upward ratchet in interest rates concurrent with unemployment and underemployment.

Respectfully

HBM

Tree in the Forest (07/15/01; 14:08:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 58131)
Sorry to eat so much bandwidth, but this is important
More from the article:

A: It was very clear at the Earth Summit. Maurice Strong, who was the head eco-wacko there …

Q: Mr. Evil.

A: Yeah – the World Economic Forum, the Club of Rome, the Aspen Institute – he belongs to all those groups. He's one of Ted Turner's and Mikhail Gorbachev's and David Rockefeller's best buddies. When he was going there to the summit, he said he was going to be guided by a plan (in fact, he wrote the foreword for it for the Trilateral Commission) called "Beyond Interdependence/Meshing of the World's Ecology with the World's Economy." And he said this is what was going to guide him. He said the primary author of this report, Jim MacNeill, is going to be guiding him on decisions that will affect the fate of the entire planet.

Q: Not too arrogant? Hubris personified.

A: These people have his kind of messianic view of themselves, that they know what is best. They have this divine omniscience in which they can determine what is best for the planet. And, at the summit, Maurice Strong, like so many others, reserved their most vicious diatribes for the United States. Because we're using up all the resources, we're a terrible burden on the planet, we have to stop all our suburban living, and use of electricity and air conditioning and what not.

Q: But they want to affect this metamorphosis with our money though.

A: And the thing that is so infuriating about this and all these summits, these people live in extreme luxury. While they were denouncing the United States for using air conditioning, they had the whole conference site air-conditioned and all the doors opened. They fed in sumptuous splendor. These people, of course, have one idea of what existence should be for themselves – for all the privileged, pampered, perfumed princes of the U.N. – and the rest of us …

Q: … are serfs.

I have to ask you something I have asked Joan Veon, John Coleman, Joel Skousen and others. Most people eventually come to the conclusion that there are some would-be controllers somewhere who are attempting to manipulate the agenda for everything – from cradle to grave, sperm to worm. Different people have different views on who the bad guys are. Your buddy John McMannus and the John Birch Society tend to think it's the Council on Foreign Relations and the Trilateral Commission. Dr. John Coleman says it is the Committee of 300. Some claim it's the Club of Rome or the Fabian Society. One guy thinks it's a fellow named Benny who lives in a basement in London. Who is trying to control the world and/or are all these people inter-connected or are they all the same players?

A: Most of these groups you've mentioned Club of Rome, Aspen Society, Fabians – it is a network of power, a web of control and organizations like the Council on Foreign Relations and Trilateral Commission or the even more exclusive Bilderbergers – those represent pretty close to the higher levels of what is referred to as a global conspiracy. Because, really, they are pushing for evil and immoral purposes and they doing it largely in secret. Although, they are coming out more and more into the open. Those groups are still front groups for the inner people who make the decisions. It's like the mafia or any criminal conspiracy involving the drug cartels or what not. It's very difficult to find the people who actually make the ultimate decisions.

Q: So is John Coleman closer to the mark in saying it is the Committee of 300? A collection of real old families.

A: There are some old families involved in it. But if you go back to the ultimate conspiracy that has been fully documented, where we've been able to see transcontinental, transgenerational control like that, go back to the Bavarian Illuminati, that type of thing – there were families, very powerful families and royal families but they were always brought in by those who were part of a secret society and who played upon their various interests and desires. Such as Frederick the Great or others who were brought in. They appeared to be the most powerful on the outside but they were still not the inner sanctum.

Q: People acknowledge the world is going to hell in a hand basket. When did it start? Different people embrace different dates. I have always felt, and this is just one guy's opinion, that 1913 and the Woodrow Wilson administration was our turn down the path of despair.

A: That was a big watershed year.

Q: That was a bad year for the Republic.

A: We had the institution of the Federal Reserve, the graduated income tax, and the direct election of senators. All three of those things greatly devastated our constitutional checks and balances.



Tree in the Forest (07/15/01; 13:59:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 58130)
This is an important article
Turnaround, you beat me to it good knight! That article in WND is a corker is it not? And people think I'm a conspiracy nut! They will find out too late that the "conspiracy theory" is all too real. Here's some additional quotes on the Euro, gun control, and world domination:

(C) WorldNetDaily

A: This is what people need to realize – when you finally see it in the news – like George Bush going to Europe for the global warming summit of the U.N. – when you see it in the news that way as an open summit – by that time the dials have already been pre-set and all the agenda has been pre-planned and all you are going to see at the summits is actually an exercise in consensus.

Q: It is designed to be a pro forma kind of thing. I spoke to Joan Veon a while back and she brought up the point that the currency gambit is pretty much a fait accompli already, that, ultimately, there will be only three currencies: the yen, the euro, and the U.S. dollar. Yet, if you contact anyone and talk about it, they deny that is happening.

A: Yet, as we point out in my new book, "The United Nations Exposed," it was very clear that in the higher circles of power in foreign affairs like the journal of the Council on Foreign Relations over a year and half ago, they had a major article by Manny Bettows saying the dollar and the euro are the two currencies that are going to rule the world. What that really says is we are going to have an inflation of all the currencies in the western hemisphere, and maybe even it said we might join the yen to that.

Q: The global threat is very, very real. You guys at The New American have done a superb job in documenting it. Anyone with more than two brain cells to rub together can see that it is very real. But ultimately, eventually, say the U.N. gets together in Geneva or wherever, and they sit down without whoever their masters are and they say, "Here's the deal. This is going to be the gun-control plan, and this is United Nations global law and this is what is being implemented." Fine. Implement anything you want guys but the fact is as long as the United States remains sovereign – or that fiction continues to exist – it is going to have to get through Congress. And unless Congress has a death wish, they are not going to abrogate the Constitution and the Bill of Rights to any global authority. So, is this all a rhetorical exercise?

A: Unfortunately, no ...



Me again: And it gets worse. Listen to the degree of control these fascist tyrants want to exercise over you. They are fascist tyrants! I do not exaggerate! When Jews were told what Hitler had in store for them, they did not believe it! They said it was an exaggeration. This is not an exaggeration!


Q: Obviously, there is far more material in your book than we have time to cover in this interview. However, it is important that we hit some key bullet points. We have discussed it in the past, but please explain for our readers what "Agenda 21" is?

A: Agenda 21 is a massive eco-social manifesto for the whole world.

Q: This isn't fiction. This is for real!

A: Unfortunately, it is all too true. I was at the U.N. Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. It was a very lonely experience. It was myself, Dixie Lee Ray and Fred Smith against the world. There were about 20,000 delegates in greenie, global-warmy, NGO (Non Governmental Organization) groups there. Sierra Club, De Green Pest, Beans of the Earth, Environmental Defense Fraud – all those groups and many others. And they had all come together, of course, to provide the global rent-a-mob that was going to extol the virtues of all the agreements to come out of there. And the biggest of all of them was Agenda 21 – a 600- or 700- (depending on the format) page program for regimenting the entire planet – all of human activity. In fact, I have part of it there in my book.

Q: There are two quotes I want to lift out of your book: "Effective execution of Agenda 21 will require a profound reorientation of all human society, unlike anything the world has ever experienced – a major shift in the priorities of both governments and individuals and an unprecedented redeployment of human and financial resources. This shift will demand that a concern for the environmental consequences of every human action be integrated into individual and collective decision-making at every level." Now those are not your words.

A: No. Unfortunately, that is their own self-indictment with their own words.

Q: But it gets worse. They go on with unbridled hubris and audacity to say, "There are specific actions which are intended to be undertaken by multi-national corporations and entrepreneurs, by financial institutions and individual investors, by high-tech companies and indigenous people, by workers and labor unions, by farmers and consumers, by students and schools, by governments and legislators, by scientists, by women, by children – in short, by every person on Earth."

A: And it goes on and gets even worse.

Q: How the heck do they intend to mandate something like that though?

A: This is what the POP Convention (Persistent Organic Pollutants) that Bush signed on May 23rd is, just one facet of this. They are going to legislate for the entire planet.

Q: We have seen in California the successes of what happens when the enviro-wackos take over. You don't get to build any power plants for 25 years, you have an increase in population, you have a shortage of resources necessary to accommodate the needs of that increased population and, guess what? You eventually reach that point of diminishing return and the lights go out.

Me again: Anyone who has not read the WND article must go to worldnetdaily.com and read it. Now please! Your life may depend on it!


Black Blade (07/15/01; 13:16:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 58129)
RE: HBM and Turnaround
Hill Billy Mitchell msg. 58111

Thank you. You explained exactly what I was thinking. The subsidies for energy conservation come from the very tax revenues paid for by the populace. At best the leech will gain, and at worst those who can perhaps least afford to cut energy use continue to pay high costs without relief. Sounds like quite a plan.

The Argentine situation is quite interesting. Argentina pegged the peso to the US dollar, sold off their gold reserves, discussed complete dollarization, and recently pegging to a combination of the US dollar and Euro. Now the Argentine situation continues to deteriorate. The sale of bonds did not go over very well as they had to raise rates. Argentina is "Dancing with the Devil" on this one. Cheers!

Turnaround

The article is a combination of material that I compiled (much found in the "sources" referenced at the end), from past research during my years in academia (and from my fading memory), and also from sources that I developed with others I have met through my profession (earth science) and the organizations such as the "Petition Project." I am by no means an "expert" on global warming (no one is), however, I do understand the earth's processes. For example I am not aware of the iron fertilzation in blue water ocean experiments that you describe. Maybe it did not fit into someone's political agenda. It sounds intriguing though. You may have noticed the sudden intense media blitz from Europe railing against the US position on Kyoto. Does anyone notice that they themselves have not signed on? Cheers!

BTW, I remember some of my colleagues who would practically prostitute themselves and their research for funding. Never offend those who feed you.





Mr Gresham (07/15/01; 13:14:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 58128)
Better 'n' better!
FOA back, Belgian back, MK's long Sunday thoughts ahead of me! I can hardly wait to get the family off to a matinee so I can dig deep into some good reads here...

Netking (07/15/01; 12:37:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 58127)
Argentina - cont.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,2351084%255E643,00.html
FEARS of global monetary instability will prey on the minds of investors this week after the International Monetary Fund and the US White House declined over the weekend to intervene to solve the financial crisis in Argentina.

But IMF representatives are scheduled to visit Argentina this week when they will decide whether to release a $US1.2 billion ($2.35 billion) loan, part of the $US40 billion international rescue package arranged in November.

The IMF visit will take place after Argentine President Fernando de la Rua failed at the weekend to secure the crucial support of 13 opposition governors for severe budget cuts. . .

Hill Billy Mitchell (07/15/01; 12:35:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 58126)
Belgian @ # 58120
Belgian @ # 58120

Sir Belgian, thanks for your response. I would like to address replacement cost vs. the cost of production issue in this post. I will have to spend more time reading the rest of your post before addressing the other issues. You certainly can pack punch in a single post. Your view from Europe is very important to us. I want you to know that I read all of your posts.

Not being a buyer of any sort of paper, gold stocks or otherwise, I have not paid much attention to the replacement cost. My accounting background led me to believe that replacement cost as referred to in the S & P quote was not referring to cost of production as you clearly explained.

I have played a mental gymnastics game since I saw the reference to replacement cost. I have not gone into the "deep storage of my mine" (mind), replacement cost being so high (smile) but would like to offer a few surface thoughts in hopes of generating more discussion on this topic.

My simple thoughts: 1) At first it would appear that watching replacement costs apart from production costs would give a more reliable indication as to when the short sellers of metals would begin to run into difficulty in obtaining that with which to cover; however my second thought is that where gold is concerned "replacement cost" is an oxymoron in that all old and new gold which has ever been mined is still in existence and need not be replaced. 2) Replacement costs that apparently refer to each individual mining operation would tell us much about the future economic viability of the mine considered at certain POG levels but would not be much help in a macroeconomic sense as an indication as to the real dynamics of future POG. It seems to me that the mean cost of production would tell us more about the limits to which POG can be lowered by short selling than the replacement costs. Would you agree and if not what do you believe would be a better guide? I can see why a prospective buyer or seller of a particular stock would be interested in replacement cost at a particular mining operation but it seems of little interest to a person like me as a, physical only, holder. 3) I do see how that as acceleration in the cost of replacement in the overall industry would signal the depleting supply of in ground availability for forward sales to be used for future covering by the shorts but it seems that this would only be effective if most or all of the current production is bought by those who have no intention of selling these purchases back into the market at these ridiculously low prices. I tend to think and hope that most of all new production fits this category as a part of world accumulation and that it will gradually and finally force those manipulators to move part of their holdings to market in the form of physical delivery rather than just making bookkeeping entries and leaving hypothetical gold where it is. 4) I am also concerned that as Christian and others contend, that abilities to create paper gold by the powers that be have a very long time to run down and that the replacement cost and cost of production are not in any way short-term indicators. 5) I stick to my position which I have maintained for quite some time that no commodity can sell far below cost of production or below cost of production for very long. For this reason I have maintained that the $252 POG was the bottom and talks of $200 and $190 gold simply will not occur. I hope that I am wrong, for if short sellers force POG that low we will be afforded a short period of time to accumulate more per fiat unit and when the pressure created swells the short covering of the massive amounts of short which were required to force POG that low would finally bring an end to a short side of the market until we "patient ones" will have finally discovered what temendous measure of the wealth accumulated by holding physical has really been all along. We will no longer be ridiculed for having foregone the so-called interest and earnings from having our wealth exposed to the destroyers of paper.

Again thanks. I do hope to be able to respond to the other heavy points of your post later.

Very respectfully,

HBM


Turnaround (07/15/01; 12:33:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 58125)
this screen may not be your private property
USAGOLD (07/15/01; 11:52:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 58122)
Reflections on Reading the Sunday New York Times

NYT: "What was happening on the Internet buttressed a school of thought in sociology known as role theory. The role theorists argue that we have no 'self" as such. Our selves are merely the masks we wear in response to the social situations in which we find ourselves. The Internet had offered up a new set of social situations, to which people had responded by grabbing for a new set of masks. People take on the new tools they are ready for and make use of only what they need, how they need it. If they were using the Internet to experiment with their identities, it was probably because they found their old identities inadequate. If the Internet was giving the world a shove in a certain direction, it was probably because the world already felt inclined to move in that direction. The Internet was telling us what we wanted to become."

MK:
There is no manual on operating a discussion group. We are writing it -- all of us. As such, it is incumbent on us to make the extraordinary effort to make it work."


And there it is. I've been meaning to write this really great essay on the above, filled with references, good common sense and penetrating analysis. It just keeps getting better all the time.

"Now the cleverst thing of the sort that
I ever did," he went on after a pause, "was
inventing a new pudding during the meat-
course."
"In time to have it cooked for the next
course?" said Alice. "Well, that *was* quick
work, certainly!"
"Well, not the *next* course," the Knight
said in a slow thoughtful tone: "no, certainly
not the next *course*."
"Then it would have to be the next day.
I suppose you wouldn't have two pudding-
courses in one dinner?"
"Well, not the *next* day," the Knight
repeated as before: "not the next *day*.
In fact," he went on, holding his head down,
and his voice getting lower and lower, 'I
don't believe that pudding ever *will*
be cooked! And yet it was a very clever
pudding to invent."

--Lewis Carroll, *Through the Looking-Glass (and What Alice Found There)* , 1897, p166



megatron (07/15/01; 12:29:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 58124)
Credit expansion
Randy's post's of the constant dollar inflation by the Fed have me convinced that the Argentine situation will be printed out of existence. If this barrage of credit can hit the market day in,day out, without the major bond players baulking, then certainly they can overlook the 'measly' $150? billion default. What will it take to really scare the bond market? Obviouly nothing. This is chump change and can be resolved with a couple of Fed meetings. In a slow summer of finacial news and the media desperate to talk about anything but job cuts, this story makes great fodder, but ultimately will be 'printed' away, much to the chagrin of future tax payers, and futuer bond holders, I might add.

Turnaround (07/15/01; 12:03:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 58123)
summation of UN dictator's cartel agenda
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=23642


This new interview pretty well sums it up- the tripartite Orwellian currency zones, global warming fraud, gun control/genocide, corporate feudalism, fake world religion (UNsters call it "global ethics", btw), Tobin tax, tyranny by international treaty, Agenda 21.


U.N. to rule over America?
Geoff Metcalf interviews journalist, author William Jasper on global tyranny

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Editor's note: Ask someone what "globalism" means and you are likely to get answers ranging from "world trade" to "world peace" to "I don't know." Any suggestion that it amounts to "world government" or "tyranny" brings with it the risk of being pegged as a conspiracy nut.

Yet, there is clear and mounting evidence that a handful of organizations – most notably the United Nations – are actively working to diminish U.S. sovereignty and the constitutional rights of U.S. citizens in order to promote an ever-increasing level of global governance.

Q: There are two quotes I want to lift out of your book: "Effective execution of Agenda 21 will require a profound reorientation of all human society, unlike anything the world has ever experienced – a major shift in the priorities of both governments and individuals and an unprecedented redeployment of human and financial resources. This shift will demand that a concern for the environmental consequences of every human action be integrated into individual and collective decision-making at every level." Now those are not your words.

A: No. Unfortunately, that is their own self-indictment with their own words....


A: And the thing that is so infuriating about this and all these summits, these people live in extreme luxury. While they were denouncing the United States for using air conditioning, they had the whole conference site air-conditioned and all the doors opened. They fed in sumptuous splendor. These people, of course, have one idea of what existence should be for themselves – for all the privileged, pampered, perfumed princes of the U.N. – and the rest of us …

Q: … are serfs.

I have to ask you something I have asked Joan Veon, John Coleman, Joel Skousen and others. Most people eventually come to the conclusion that there are some would-be controllers somewhere who are attempting to manipulate the agenda for everything – from cradle to grave, sperm to worm. Different people have different views on who the bad guys are. Your buddy John McMannus and the John Birch Society tend to think it's the Council on Foreign Relations and the Trilateral Commission. Dr. John Coleman says it is the Committee of 300. Some claim it's the Club of Rome or the Fabian Society. One guy thinks it's a fellow named Benny who lives in a basement in London. Who is trying to control the world and/or are all these people inter-connected or are they all the same players?

A: Most of these groups you've mentioned Club of Rome, Aspen Society, Fabians – it is a network of power, a web of control and organizations like the Council on Foreign Relations and Trilateral Commission or the even more exclusive Bilderbergers – those represent pretty close to the higher levels of what is referred to as a global conspiracy. Because, really, they are pushing for evil and immoral purposes and they doing it largely in secret. Although, they are coming out more and more into the open. Those groups are still front groups for the inner people who make the decisions. It's like the mafia or any criminal conspiracy involving the drug cartels or what not. It's very difficult to find the people who actually make the ultimate decisions. ....


====

linked from above artcle we have-
http://worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=19651

A: Yes, sir. A major asset has been shifted out of governmental hands into a new relationship, a public-private partnership that is for business, which is, by way of philosophical bent, fascism, because fascism is the marriage between government and business. The bottom line now is profit -- and the citizens now become customers.

Q: One of the things we have to try to explain to our readers is a phrase that is starting to be repeated more and more -- "sustainable development." What does that really mean?

A: Sustainable development came out of the 1992 Rio Earth Summit and, in fact, I titled my book, "Prince Charles -- The Sustainable Prince" after sustainable development. He was the one who has been pushing this Orwellian agenda.

The bottom line is, it is a new concept. The phrase "sustainable development" was never used in any U.N. document before 1992. The Rio Earth Summit is where it made its debut. Sustainable development basically says there are too many people on the planet, that we must reduce the population, that the United Nations is the only organization in a position to help monitor and control the assets of the world..."





USAGOLD (07/15/01; 11:52:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 58122)
Reflections on Reading the Sunday New York Times
Ever since my years as an undergraduate at Penn State University, ensconced happily in the middle of rural Pennsylvania (Joe Paterno country), I have habitually conducted the ritual of finding the New York Times Sunday edition, retreating to an out-of-the-way place and getting lost in its copious pages. For many years, the Tattered Cover bookstore across from our offices would save a copy for me, and, faithfully, part of the Sunday morning schedule included getting there shortly after 10AM to pick it up. Now, I know that the New York Times is a decidedly liberal newspaper and that bias has become even more evident since the recent election. (This morning's edition, for example, headlines an investigative piece on the Florida recount -- another in the series of "The Republicans Stole the Election" series that the majority of its readers West of the Mississippi dismiss with a wave of the hand.) However, it still actually contains the news in depth, and the editorials though slanted to the left still contain enough substance to make them worth reading. So now, the result of this privileged age, I have the New York Times delivered to my doorstep every other Sunday (I either gave them the wrong subscription information or the delivery people have me listed incorrectly. I really would like to receive it weekly.) I no longer have to go out of my way. Since the NYT so often touches upon issues in which many of us have an interest, I thought it might be interesting for me to run through the Times picking up on items that sound a chord and make a comment or two on them. I'll do this on an inpired-to-do-so, somewhat regular basis. Hope you enjoy these "Reflections on Reading the Sunday NY Times."

FIRST:

From the magazine section. Hitting close to home.

"Faking It" by Michael Lewis

NYT:

"Marcus Arnold was the No. 1 rated legal expert on the AskMe Web site. Marcus Arnold was 15. Therein lies the real nature of the Internet Revolution."

When the internet stocks began their free fall in March 2000, the Internet was finally put in its proper place. It was nothing more than a fast delivery service for information -- that was what serious people who had either lost a lot of money in the late stages of the Internet boom or, more likely, failed to make money began to say now. The profit-making potential of the Internet had been overrated, and so the social effects of the Internet were presumed to be overrated. But they weren't. Speeding up information was not the only thing the Internet had done. The Internet had made it possible for people to thwart all sorts of rules and conventions. It wasn't just the commercial order that was in flux. Many forms of authority were secured by locks waiting to be picked. The technology and money-making potential of the Internet were far less interesting than the effects people were allowing it to have on their lives and what these, in turn, said about those lives.

What was happening on the Internet buttressed a school of thought in sociology known as role theory. The role theorists argue that we have no 'self" as such. Our selves are merely the masks we wear in response to the social situations in which we find ourselves. The Internet had offered up a new set of social situations, to which people had responded by grabbing for a new set of masks. People take on the new tools they are ready for and make use of only what they need, how they need it. If they were using the Internet to experiment with their identities, it was probably because they found their old identities inadequate. If the Internet was giving the world a shove in a certain direction, it was probably because the world already felt inclined to move in that direction. The Internet was telling us what we wanted to become.

MK:
There is no manual on operating a discussion group. We are writing it -- all of us. As such, it is incumbent on us to make the extraordinary effort to make it work. Here's something that's sat on my desk top for the better part of two weeks:

Eleven Guidelines for the Respectful Poster

1. Respect yourself and your better judgment. If you do not take the responsibility for keeping this Forum from spinning into the nether distance, no one will.

2. Respect your fellow poster. If you do not, he/she has no choice but to defend his or her on-line persona. That leads to psychological warfare which neither party can win. Learn to back away to carry-on another day.

3. Respect this table. Sturdy and oaken as it is, it is fragile as well. If you damage it, you damage yourself.

4. Respect those who provide this table. If USAGOLD/CPM is diminished by the existence of this Forum, it has no reason to provide it.

5. Respect those who read this Forum as lurkers. Remember it is not USAGOLD/Centennial Precious Metals that provides sustenance for this table but its clientele.

6. Respect the rules. Remember without law and mutual respect -- the rules -- we are rabble.

7. Respect the purpose of this forum. It is not to promote your enterprise, a favorite enterprise (including our competitors), a political party or group, religious group or your own career. Remember you are a guest here.

8. Respect the civility and integrity of the Table. I should not have to police this site. Take personal responsibility, and a pleasant place to visit will be your reward.

9. Respect the rules of civil discourse. Do not in a fit of anger, pique or disgust hit the "Submit Message" button. You will more than likely come to regret it. Give it a day. Give it a week. We'll all be here when you get back.

10. Respect the continuity of the Internet. Once it's posted here. It's posted her for the long haul.

11. Respect the spirit of this message born of considerable experience. It is not addressed to any one individual or any group. It is directed toward and applies to all. Remember for USAGOLD issuing a posting code is a matter of trust.

You have my permission to repost this as a reminder whenever you find it useful.

------------------------------

SECOND

From the NYT Opinion Section

"From Bosnia to Berlin to the Hague On a Road Toward a Continent's Future" by Roger Cohen

NYT:

"Germany had been down this road five decades earlier. To watch the country return its capital to Berlin, the scene of the Nazi cataclysm, a few years after I had watched Serbia embark on its road to self-destruction, was intriguing. No fanfare, no flag-waving, no formal ceremony attended the birth of the "Berlin Republic" in 1999. I was told repeatedly that German national pride had died at Auschwitz, never to be revived. In the idea of the European Union, postwar Germany had found a way to pursue its interests without appearing threatening. It seems inconceivable that it will diverge from this path. Yet, with time, I sensed that the death of national sentiment in Germany and the rejection of nationalist temptations were not quite so simple. The country has accepted collective responsibility -- if not collective guilt -- for the Holocaust, but is tired of seeing its history reduced to the 12 Nazi years. It wants to remember some better times, it wants its cultural history more widely acknowledged; it is tired of doing penance."

MK:

Germany is the throbbing heart of economic Europe. On the basis of its vibrant economy, it is the lead country in the EU and the lead country in the euro. When the leading economies of the world meet in Genoa later this month, how Germany reacts to the reality of the strong dollar will enter greatly into the debate. There is a legacy part and parcel of the German national character beyond Hitler and World War II and one that will play a key role in the proceedings for the rest of the year. That legacy is the Nightmare German Inflation which preceded that war. Germany will be pushing for a strong euro because currency debasement and destruction is remembered in nearly German household. The question becomes "How will a strong euro be accomplished?" Much of the new German nationalism is quickly transforming to a "European" nationalism. True, as Mr. Cohen points out, Germany is tired of doing penance, but the key question not Europe's past but Europe's future. What kind of Germany will emerge as a result of this European confederation and what kind of foreign and economic policies will it advocate for the whole of Europe? Germany may be psychologically ready to lead Europe, but is it politically ready to lead Europe into the 21st Century? And is the rest of Europe ready for Germany? We'll find out more as the rest of 2001 unfolds. This next six months (before euro circulation becomes a reality) will be a test for Europe. It is a critical period. If the currency enters the world stage a sad second or third in the currency parade, it may become too much to overcome. A good start is essential. The rest of the world, particularly the business and political sectors, will be watching events starting with the Genoa summit with intent interest. Gold might take its cue from what happens there.

------------------------

THIRD

From the Opinion Section

"A Latin Tragedy" by Paul Krugman

NYT:
. . .[T]he buzz on Wall Street is that the question about an eventual Argentine debt default is not longer whether, but when. . . Some Wall Streeters believe that the Argentine government will default but try to keep the peso pegged to the dollar. Maybe -- but that would be a bizarre strategy, choosing the worst of two evils. Advanced countries -- the status to which Argentina aspires -- regard default on debt as a mortal sin, but a sliding currency as at most a mild embarrassment. . . I hate to suggest that Argentina should emulate Brazil; indeed I have been reluctant to say anything that would make Mr. Cavallo's job harder. But he and his country are rapidly running out of options.

MK: Running out of options indeed. Argentina is the only country I know of in my extended experience watching international economic events to offer itself up to colonialist expansionism on at least two different occasions and to two different first world powers. The first when it suggested that it might accede to being "dollarized." And then when it turned around some months later, and said being "euro-ized" might work just as well, if not better. The last time Argentina found itself in a pickle a few years back (Thanks HBM) it sold off its gold reserves (the Argentinos and Uruguay 5 pesos many of you own probably came from that sale). Now there is no gold. But there remains a debt near default to the tune of $155 to $189 billion -- depending on whose estimates you want to believe. We said at the beginning of July not to succumb to summer pursuits without an eye on the financial markets. Well, we didn't expect something quite as nasty as this. Wall Street could very well pay the price as early as tomorrow. We are talking a major league bailout here and dollar printing to an extreme on top of an already extreme situation. That makes this time around different. The Asian contagion Horseman is back in all its dark glory -- this time in South America.

----------------------

FOURTH

From the Opinion Section

"Who Said You Can't Be Too Rich?" by Danny Hakim

NYT:

The subtext is simple enough. Money is no fun anymore. Yes, you built up a big pile of stocks an options in the bull market. Now, however, it looks like a shrinking hill. Those coveted options? Probably worthless. And the net worth of many, many of your newly minted millionaire friends are falling -- Good Lord! -- below seven digits. "Money is not the end of worry," the U.S. Trust ad headline reads, "It is the beginning."

MK:

I have had the pleasure of working with high net-worth individuals for nearly 30 years. These concerns that the Times registers are not new. They are as old as money itself. They say that every generation experiences its very own bear market. Is this the bear market for the Boomer generation? Many old-line stock market analysts, like the highly respected Richard Russel (Dow Theory Letters), believe that it is. As a matter of fact, RR has been more right, more of the time than any of the top letter writers over the past few years. He says you can't beat the bear market and those who lose "less" will be the winners. Bonds and savings are a natural rotation in such markets, but these options continue to be less and less attractive as inflation comes forward, interest rates decline and this bear market wears on. Gold is the best diversification in bear markets. Historically, it has proven to at least hold its own in deflationary economies and rise in inflationary, or even stagflationary, economies. The article goes on to quote U.S. Trust: "[T]he burden of wealth is something few understand unless it actually rests on their shoulders." And when it does, a solid understanding of gold's role in the portfolio is seldom overlooked, despite what the mainstream press or Wall Street might be telling us. Gold was a principle and reliable repository of wealth during the last two economic crack-ups (the '30s and '70s). Chances are it will be just as reliable the next time around.

------------------------

FIFTH

Aside:

From "Alexander the Great: A Novel" by Nikos Kazantzakis (published posthumously, 1978 in the Greek edition)

In the run-up to the following snippet, Alexander, taking advantage of his father's work to unite the Greek city states, raises a military force, "not just to liberate the Greeks who [were] under the Persian yoke," but to conquer the world.

"Many Greek cities sent armies. The Athenians sent a fleet; Thessaly her finest horsemen; from Crete came that island's famous archers, along with Clearhos their chief, a true giant with a black curly beard. In the gold mines of Pangaion, laborers were digging deep in the earth to excavate precious metal. Alexander sent thousands more to dig. Such a campaign needed a great deal of gold."

Kazantakis note: "Pangaion is a mountain in Thrace, famous for its gold and silver mines."

-----------------------

That it for this Sunday. Off to take advantage in the change of weather. Want to draw attention to the great work our new Gilded Opinion is doing. Getting the three authors, including Martin Mayer, all to agree to the "Three Easy Pieces" presentation was a real coup. Congratulations to our GOE. We intend to elevate that page to the best gold opinion page on the internet by attracting top thinkers like Dr. Robert Mundell and Martin Mayer to these pages. Stay tuned.

-----------------------

The articles mentioned deserve your closer scrutiny.

Go to www.nytimes.com

Your further discussion on these items is welcome! I'll be back later in the day. MK

Knallgold (07/15/01; 10:44:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 58121)
Deep storage
Spinning this further: If the US secured some 1700t in the ground and owns still the 8200t,then 1700t of the former stockpile have been already sold!?

Belgian (07/15/01; 10:17:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 58120)
@ HBM
- cost of production : the cost to mine an ounce of gold out of the concession that the miner owns (property). Variable with the ore grade (average).
- replacement cost : when the ore grade is to low to mine profitable...new gold-deposits must be aqcuired. And for every ounce mined, out of the owned mine, other gold deposits must be prospected to replace the ones of the original mine. So each ounce mined carries a cost of production + a replacement cost. Each mile you drive with your car, carries the cost for the next car.

Taxes and Subsidies : That is the name of the game that what I call "the collectivity" is playing with the individual + entrepeneurs. Collect and re-distribute with the sole purpose of complete de-responsibilization !
The very old fashion way that all rulers establish themselves as unproductive interventionists. As old as man organised himself as a group. The same story with a thousand different names to be found in all cultures (primitive and modern-humm). Over and over again.

I do refer again to "untaxed" gold. Independance and the unique possibilty of aqcuiring a heavenly individual freedom, lies there for grasping at a ridiculous exchange rate. 270 pieces of ink for an ounce of gorgious freedom. But a ever larger amount of people feels extremely good with
the illusionarry nest warmth of the caring collectivity.
This has evoluated into absurd proportions in my judgement as an european. And I see the first signs of consciousness, about this impossible situation, with the european collectivity. They are slowly realising that this is absolutely unsustainable and something has to be done to curb this evolution. A very difficult job to start with in a feel good period where everyone is convinced that all is well in the state of Denmark and no rot in sight.
Again an indirect argument pro FOA-theory. Less dollar-oriented but rather socially-economically inspired.

Preparative measures are introduced to pre-counter,possible polirazation effects as a possible reaction to the measures to be taken to curb that vicious cycle. Giving back one inch of the present standard of living will provoque a sudden awakening out of the welfare dream. Not that the collectivity suddenly, became "wise", but purely out of egocentric self protection. Broad based wealth has reached a highly saturated level. Revolutions are born out of extremes (poverty or wealth).

Gold's present valuation has to be seen against this social background. The collectivity has provided shelter and refuge rather than individualized physical gold in possesion. The present undervaluation of gold is a result and not a cause. As FOA mentionned : we can't impossibly find solution in deflalala for the simple reason that default is IMPOSSIBLE in the actual social context. The only alternative is hyperinflation with re-direction to responsability with the means of individual gold, as an option. A faible indication is the story that CB gold sales are used to erect pension funds. Again in confetti of course. The coming generation will pay for the past illusionarry wealth with hyperinflation. The will have to live with the idea that all this has not to be taken for granted. This slow (positive) move started at the top of the eighties explosive drama (16% IR and POG=850$)

The EMU wants to use the coming additionnal Taxes for productive economic expansion rather than re-distribution for direct individual political gain. Expansion with a doubling of the economic participants instead of limited selfisch growth for the already happy few. No, no, no, they are not the altruistic bunch of converts, but just a bit pragmatic.
Does this makes sense to you ?


Turnaround (07/15/01; 10:16:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 58119)
Black Blade- citation, please

Sir Black Blade,

Black Blade (07/15/01; 02:29:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 58106)
The Myth of Man-Induced Global Warming and the Economy - Part 1

(And Part 2)


Would you please please provide the name of the author of this excellent article? It seems to be "Black Blade", yes?
If so, we have something of an authority on the subject here.
Are you familiar with iron fertilzation in blue water ocean? Iron deficiency in seawater is a common restriction on plackton growth. An experiment in seeding the ocean was performed off the Galapagos Islands a few years ago. A big plankton bloom was produced out in middle of nowhere, persisting for several weeks, using just a few pounds of some iron compound. An estimate was made to the effect that one tanker-load of iron per year sprinkled over bluewater 'desert' areas of the ocean would offset *all* the CO2 produced by us in that year. The experiments were immediately halted.





Trurl (07/15/01; 09:39:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 58118)
Some New Age folks like gold
http://www.sacbee.com/news/news/local01_20010715.html
Maybe we who look at gold as a physical element aren't broadminded enough...

a snippit:
"There is a lot of gold and crystal in the ground here," she explained. "In yoga, gold rules the crown chakra (one of the body's centers of spiritual energy) -- this has been my theory for years and years -- and the gold and crystal put a certain vibration out that resonates with people who have an interest in spiritual growth. I think it actually helps accelerate spiritual growth."

Not investment advice ;-)



sector (07/15/01; 09:19:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 58117)
@Black Blade Greenhouse Gasses...The Most Potent Source
http://www.smallcomets.com
You have listed an impressive source of CO2 alternate greenhouse gasses which could account for global warming if it existed.

There is however, one you left out - Water vapor from outside the atmosphere in the form of small comets.

The oceans were formed by these house sized small comets which rain down into the upper stratosphere by the tens of thousands each day.

Those who have railed against this paradigm breaking theory have been consistently trumped by emerging supportive facts..the most recent was the discovery by Harvard astronomers of 10,000 times more water vapor (ice particle) surrounding a distant star than expected.

Belgian (07/15/01; 08:12:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 58116)
Pssssstttt, Auspec....he's back ! Thank you Sir FOA.
"Gold", acquired an increasing amount of "different meanings", for the past 30 years. Individuals and groups, drifted away from Gold's original definition. The one and only definition we (and others) are trying to restore : Ultimate store of wealth.

Some people on this globe drifted further away than others.
Difficult to evidence and quantify, who still sticks to Gold's core definition, without having a stealth desire to abuse it one way or another. We are mainly focussing on the ones that "abuse" Gold. Because their number is still growing.
In our analysis, as to why, this wrong Gold-Trend is evolving, must lead to pinpointing the breaking point where a radical shift, destroys all those derivative Gold perceptions (mass delusion).

Most (if not all) economical advanced individuals have no clue about the permanent depreciation of their particular confetti. My childish 1 million kilograms of individual Gold (1.000 tonnes) accumulation, will never materialize if the present welfare illusion can be sustained (managed).
All those wrongly different meanings of Gold can't be cornered and reduced to the one and only purpose for Gold, overnight. The stock market doesn't crash either after so many years of illusion building. It takes a "process" to unwind such an unjustified (strong) Trend. FOA is heavenly inspired with the most plausable process up until now.
The deafening silence on this Genial outlines is very suspicious and at the same time, very insuring (to me). Even my closiest Gold Friends don't take enough time to let FOA's profound thingking, filter in ! A big smile with caring understanding, is the appropiate attitude, for the ones who have choosen the path of least effort.

Once we have the first announcement (or hint) that Gold has been bought by a "Giant"...the process has run its coarse and the Gold denial is history.
That one little spark that will explode all Physical Gold-Fear away. Fear of getting involved with physical gold is widely encapsuled. Most individuals on the globe, who are not informed about Gold's tribulations, just stick to Gold's core purpose and have no fear. All other advanced homo speculatifs, fear the possesion of physical Gold, because they can't participate in the ongoing confetti generating machinery. They are all awaiting clear evidence of that permanent depreciation that they stubbornly don't want to recognize as such : Denial...Acceptance...Capitulation...as usual !

IMO, there is only one aspect that will hurt the individual, profoundly, in his complacent attitude. Employment, job-security and the his consciousness of the quality (duration) of his employment. A major preoccupation for the EMU. Unemployment and artificial employment on top of demographic detoriation are decisive for the speed and quality of EMU expansion (desperately needed). EMU has economic "saturation" fatique. We need to double the amount of economic participants in order to expand, distribute and preserve the welfare (too easely) acquired. This is not new and in the past ('80-ties), the problem has been (wrongly) tackled with inflala tools. At present the intention is there, not to make that same mistake or to a lesser degree. Another argument for Another's theory.

America and EMU face the same problems (debt and depreciation) for different reasons (expansion and welfare) and have different solutions (dominance and cooperation) in mind. That's why America and Europ are "AGAIN" involved in a Gold War (remember De Gaulle-France). The dispute is not about land, water, religion or whatever...but about that pile of green confetti that has become a burden. Daily news (facts) here in Europ can very easely be put as confirmation in favor of FOA's theory that is an extension of that old dispute.
The totally insignificant and therefore neutral, country, Belgium, is delegated to open up global strategic EMU connections and positions. Israel situation (Sharon)/ Russia (German loans against Gold)/ China (Candidate olympic comitee presidency)/ Africa (setting up an united african states with ACB-ECB model) etc...
I needed FOA to understand what's behind all these seemingly insignificant news events. The frequency of these events is increasing rapidly. As a critical student, I'm in frantic search for confirmation of all aspects of FOA's theory. I'm sure he wishes it that way.

The establisched Gold Fear (CBs sales) has definitely a reason. Circumstances were providing a more than helpfull hand for the organisation of that fear (and aversion).
Is this perhaps the reason why no attempt is made to corner the paper market ? Was the WA effect on POG an ejaculation precox (oeps, sorry couldn't resist this one) ? A false start ? The answer is hidden in the idendity of the buyers at that particular moment. If only we could identify a fraction, of these reliable Gold Advocates in the know. We are not satisfied with the knowledge that they must exist.

Why is everything (e-very-thing) possesed (confetti + all tangibles) Taxed...except Gold !? No VAT (value added tax) on Gold !!!! Does Gold has no value to be taxed ?
And if you don't want it to be purchased...wouldn't it be appropiate to give it a Tax burden as is done with silver for reasons of being an industrial commodity. Gold is transformed into jewelry and I don't see the logic of not being considered as an industrial commodity. What is the logic behind this fenomenon ? And why has the 1% VAT been annulated a year ago ? Isn't this fact alone not a reason par excellence for confetti generators to get a bigger part of the 25.000 tonnes in private investment hands ?
The unavoidable RE-hyperinflation will be accompagnied with the never dying Tax-Monster. An UN-Taxed refuge is blatantly ignored. The ultimate escape from medieval dependance. If this is nonsense...then show me the alternative. What is it that is taking common sense in its paralysing ban (spell) ? Greed and Fear as usual.
Casual talks with strangers on my holidays gave some kind of an answer. European savings are mobilized into real estate for reasons of low interest rates. The only reaction on the word "Gold" is : but this is not giving any return !
Comic to realize that good people who gave evidence of being capable to be succesfull money generators are demonstrating so much ignorance towards that permanent depreciation aspect that I'm trying to evidence. The choice of the "trail" and "giants" image, is speaking more and more to my imagination.


Why and when will Gold serve (again) as a refuge (first stage) and store of wealth (final stage) ?
Why will Gold be chosen above any other tangible (real estate) ? Answer : when permanent confetti depreciation + taxation + economic expansion (not growth) get out of balance. Dancing around the volcano crater is great fun up until the eruption. When an increasing amount of actives are producing less and demanding ever more rewarding. When
a decreasing amount of productive actives must provide welfare for the collectivity. When profits keep on melting away and productive entrepeneurs run out of imagination and give up. When expansion runs into consolidation.
When unproductive speculation overrules and seduces the last real wealth providers into that idiotic modern game.
When common sense decides to scream : enough is enough ! The smell of burning dollar paper, announces the fatal eruption. And not the other way around : and explosive POG.
Many, many individual european dollar-bond holders still have a (pathetic) trust in the US$. Linear thinking !!!!!
The scepticism of europeans towards EMU in favor of the dollar is a result of that linear projection. This attitude must be approched with a big dosis of diplomacy. As a Benji jumper is to be relieved only when he finally feels the securing elastic, breaking his fall into the unknown. Now I understand the Bonzai story.
The $/€ polarization hasn't started yet on a broad scale.
The idea of bringing Gold into play " AT THE APPROPIATE MOMENT" is a very subtle act ! Most probably known by the créme de la créme and well hidden for the warriors. Now I understand the chess comparaison.

They know that these tensions are building up under the volcano's crust. "They" , the ones who are providing the music for the crater dance...enjoy that last tango, nice forumers and drive home with Gold !

Cavan Man (07/15/01; 07:26:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 58115)
Hello CB(too)
RE: Salamis
Well Sir, if it's "Greek fire" that you want you'll have to speak with my wife; she, the purveyor of hot tongue and cold shoulder. (:>). How is the "deep storage" business?

Hill Billy Mitchell (07/15/01; 04:26:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 58114)
USAGOLD @ # 663 and Black Blade @ # 58073 (Don't Cry-Argentina)
I found it very interesting to compare the following posts which are separated in time by over two and one half years:

Repost: USAGOLD (10/19/98; 15:01:51MDT - Msg ID:663)
USAGOLD OPINION: Don't Cry for Argentina....
This afternoon Argentina announced a sale of its remaining gold, according to a report by Bloomberg. There were no details though we will likely hear more as the day goes on. Let me first of all say that Argentina just recently received the plaudits of the International Monetary Fund because it met the deficit guidlelines laid down by that international organization with respect to its deficits. Meeting the IMF criteria no doubt played a positive role in Argentina's successful bond float today on Wall Street today handled by Goldman Sachs & Co. The Argentine debt offering was the first major offering by an emerging market since July and went out the door at nearly 11.5% annualized. It was sold to a small group of institutional investors. If there was a gold sale in advance of the bond issue, it appears, at least on the surface, that the sale was attached to the bond offering and played a role in holding down the deficit and make Argentina look like it had it house in order. I have no way of knowing for sure that this is the case, let's just call it a hunch. Argentina has (had) 360,000 ounces of gold according to IMF figures recently released -- about $108 million at $300 per ounce. As late as 1996 Argentina had 4.36 million ounces of gold, but sold most of that off no doubt to pay down past debt requirements or reduce new exposure. Argentina experience hyperinflation that ended through 1990 when their consumer price index hit 100,000. Since then Argentina started out again at 100 for its consumer price index and it stood at 407 at 1997 year end according to IMF statistics. Since 1991, the Argentine currency, if I am reading the IMF tables correctly, has attempted to hold a peg against the U.S. dollar despite the horrendous inflation rate. In other words, fellow goldmeisters, Argentina.

Repost: Don't Cry For Me …
http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=698129

Snippit:

The world's financial markets are now very nervous about the country's financial prospects. The government was forced to pay interest rates of 14% at an auction of three-month Treasury bills this week, up from 9% last month, and investors have no appetite for longer-term bonds. On July 12th, Standard & Poor's, a credit-rating agency, cut Argentina's long-term sovereign credit rating. The government has embarked on another round of public-spending cuts which are bound to be difficult to sell politically.

Black Blade: This is getting more ugly all the time. Argentine officials are acting more like cops at the blood-splattered crime scene, pushing back the crowds saying "nothing to see here."

HBM: We have here USAGOLD a position, by which to observe the globe. Boy it would be nice to find a way to get that search engine on line. I am very low tech. Surely someone out there could set up a separate website with an engine dedicated to searching the USAGOLD archives, in conjuction or with MK's blessing of course. You can go to Google and search the whole web and pull some of USAGOLD postings.

Very respectfully,

HBM


Hill Billy Mitchell (07/15/01; 04:04:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 58113)
nickel62 @ # 58064
Sir, that was a well thought analogy.

Excerpts from your post:

"… Every tank platoon knew exactly where it was relative to the earth and other hostile and friendly forces thanks to the modern technological wonder of the US Department of Defense's Global Positioning System satellite constellation. The generals commanding the US and allied forces could quickly and easily direct US armored columns to the precise spot of the endless and formless desert wastelands to ambush and annihilate Iraqi armor. Information, when used wisely in modern warfare, can prove far more important than raw firepower."

For those of us who feel out manned in the current political and economic war on freedom: "We have a global positioning system, USAGOLD, where we can obtain information which will be, for us, far more important than raw firepower. The key, the hope is that we use this information wisely.

Very respectfully,

HBM

Ps: The only raw firepower for the little guy is physical possession of metals and other real assets.




Hill Billy Mitchell (07/15/01; 03:51:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 58112)
Tree in the Forest @ # 58093 (Lady Leigh and Gandalf)
Sir, thank you.

To be mentioned in the same sentence with Lady Leigh in such a way is a great honor.

Lady Leigh and Sir Gandalf. Neither of you can know the measure of my relief in seeing both of you back.

Now if we could get Aristotle to join in and sooth us with his gracious words.

Someone out there, please, mediate. We need Peter and Journeyman and others back. Our reconciliation has been good but is not complete.

Very respectfully

HBM

Hill Billy Mitchell (07/15/01; 03:40:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 58111)
Black Blade @ # 58096)
your Snippit:

"About 30 percent of customers buying power from the state's two largest utilities cut energy usage in June to qualify for state-subsidized rebates, surprising officials who thought fewer would comply."

Your comment:

"State subsidized? Does this mean that state tax payers are in effect paying out rebates to themselves?"

My comment:

He who subsidizes controls. He who taxes controls. What we have here is double manipulation with representation. Wish Journeyman were here. He could lay into this in short order. I believe that he would suggest that the beginning of freedom is abstinence from both the acceptance of subsidies and the paying of unconstitutional taxes.

The man who pays taxes and accepts subsidies is a net non-taxpayer. The man who pays no taxes and accepts subsidies is the scum of the earth. The man who pays no unconstitutional taxes and accepts no subsidies, can walk with a clear conscience.

Very respectfully,

HBM

PS: I have never known a person who, both, pays unconstitutional taxes and rejects all subsidies available to him.


Netking (07/15/01; 03:00:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 58110)
Real Money
The Economic Fundamentals:

There are only four foundation stones in economics which, properly placed together, enable ANY economy to prosper. These four are: Consumer Goods, Capital Goods, MONEY and TIME. The first two do not exist ready made in nature, they both have to be made. The last is nature's absolute which cannot be made, saved, or spent. Time passed is time gone forever. That leaves MONEY - which man can make unlimited amounts of - simply by arbitrary fiat and electronic book entries.

But REAL money, at its economic core, has one central principle. Once you have spent it, you don't have it anymore. Somebody else does. What would happen if money became something that anyone could print, as much as they liked anytime they were "short"? Well, if "anyone" did that, the individual would be a criminal. The practice is known as counterfeiting.

Governments are not "counterfeiters" because the money THEY print is legal tender. If it wasn't, then anyone could print the stuff. Any government can go ahead and print as much legal tender as it wants, spend it, and get the goods and services it wants - right? No, not really. The point comes where both economic law and world politics take over to make that impossible. In world politics, no nation's printed money (legal tender) has to be accepted by any other nation. That stops most such money at the borders of the nation printing it. It also means that the nation printing "too much" money is left to face the consequences. Inside the nation, the exchange value of the "money" falls, it buys less - i.e. money-prices RISE. Outside the nation, the exchange value of the money being printed to excess falls against all the other nations' legal tenders.

Hill Billy Mitchell (07/15/01; 02:57:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 58109)
Question? Anyone? Shifty @ # 58104 ($100/oz. below replacement cost.)
Sir Shifty
Thanks for that link.

Can any one comment on the difference if any between replacement cost and the cost of production.

TIA

Very respectfully

HBM


Black Blade (07/15/01; 02:42:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 58108)
Global Warming - Follow-Up


If the Kyoto Protocols are adopted, then we in the US will have to learn a new way of life without all the conveniences of modern life. The economy will be in a shambles, and energy costs will be extremely high due to taxation and limited availability. People complain now about the high cost of energy. Just imagine the outcry if those costs are doubled or tripled as they would be under Kyoto. I suspect that the reason other countries are awaiting the US to sign the treaty is that they are curious if we will be foolish enough to put ourselves into a corner. So far Australia and Canada have followed the US in rejecting Kyoto, and now it appears that Japan may follow. Gold would do well if Kyoto were implemented - but at such a devastating cost.

- Black Blade


Black Blade (07/15/01; 02:31:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 58107)
The Myth of Man-Induced Global Warming and the Economy - Part 2
WHAT’S THE PROBLEM?

The evidence does not support the theory of global warming. Computer modeling of global warming trends are based on very limited selectively gleaned data. Most scientists question the validity of the data acquired by those researching the theory. Some surface temperature readings suggest a slight warming trend, while NASA's atmospheric data from weather balloons and satellites suggest a global cooling trend. Forty years of temperature measurement data over the Artic Sea from multiple altitudes show no change in temperature.


THE KYOTO TREATY

The Kyoto Protocol is a treaty that attempts to reduce Man's contribution of greenhouse gases. The US has so far resisted signing the treaty and has come under intense criticism by other countries (primarily European countries) that also have refused to sign.

The Kyoto Protocol does not include manditory emission reductions for less developed countries, which are expected to emit three-quarters of all carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. Many producers currently located in the developed world will shift their base of production to the less developed world under Kyoto, in an effort to avoid mandatory reductions. This would impose tremendous economic costs on the developed nations and increase real pollution in developing countries because of lax commitments there to the environment. It would do this without significantly reducing overall greenhouse gas emissions.


THE ECONOMIC COST

The nations that are "targeted" for by the Kyoto Protocol serve, being that those nations "targeted" for the largest reductions in CO2 emissions are perhaps the least culpable. One hundred thirty-two out of 166 countries are exempt; and so, while the United States would be required to cut energy use by more than 20 percent and materially force US citizens to live under Third World conditions, India, China (a major user of dirty coal) and Mexico would continue to increase their rates of consumption unabated. An examination of the gross annual CO2 emission by country reveals those excluded from mandated reductions make up the bulk of the worst offenders. The United States places last on the list! Ranking order of CO2 emissions, in metric tons per 1000 GNP (per capita), by country: 1. Poland, 2. China, 3. South Africa, 4. India, 5. Mexico, 6. South Korea, 7. Austrailia, 8. Canada, 9. United States.

The poor would be hardest hit by the economic disruption resulting from the treaty's ratification. Meeting the Kyoto target for carbon dioxide emissions would: 1. Nearly double energy and electricity prices, and raise gasoline prices an additional 50 to 65 cents per gallon. 2. Cost 2.4 million U.S. jobs and reduce U.S. total output $300 billion annually. 3. Harm U.S. competitiveness, as developing countries will not need to raise energy prices (or product prices) to meet manditory greenhouse gas targets. 4. Reduce the average annual household income nearly $2700, at a time when the cost of all goods, particularly food and basic necessities, would rise sharply. 5. Diminish state tax revenues by $93.1 billion due to job and output losses attributable to lost U.S. competitiveness in the global market and higher energy costs.

The Argonne National Laboratory, under contract for the U.S. DOE, studied what impact constraints on developed countries only would have on six large energy-intensive industries subject to foreign competition. They found that 60 to 100 percent of U.S. primary aluminum production capacity would disappear, that the chemical and steel industries together would lose 300,000 jobs, and that domestic oil would lose 20 percent of its output, as many U.S. refineries became non-competitive and shut down.

The proposed plan could require developing nations to be "compensated" (read: U.N. mandated "taxes") for damages to their economies - eg: paying oil-producing nations like Iran and Kuwait for lost oil revenues due to reduced oil sales. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the U.N. body responsible for many of the global warming fears, says that, if fully implemented, the present plan would cut warming twenty-five years from now "by less than 0.1 degree C, which would not be detectable." And in the February-March 1997 IPCC Report: "It is obvious...that no reasonable future reductions by Anexx [developed] countries [alone] would stabilize global emissions." On April 7, 1992, Al Gore stated: "If the United States not only stabilizes emissions but reduces greenhouse gas emissions by 50 percent, and if every other industrial country also reduces greenhouse gas emissions by 50 percent, and the developing countries continue on their current path then worldwide greenhouse gas emissions will, by the year 2030, increase by 250 percent." But negotiating countries, including the U.S., have already agreed under the Berlin Mandate that no new commitments will be asked of developing countries. However, developing nations must be a part of the solution for any global climate plan to work.



THE PETITION PROJECT

The level of dissenting scientific opinion is increasing. The PETITION PROJECT has gathered over 19,200 signatories, who oppose to the global warming thesis--17,100 of whom are basic and applied American scientists, two-thirds with advanced degrees (of which I am one who has signed the petition). Signers of this petition include 2,660 physicists, geophysicists, climatologists, meteorologists, oceanagraphers, and enviromental scientists who are especially well qualified to evaluate the effects of carbon dioxide on the Earth's atmosphere and climate. Signers of this petition also include 5,017 scientists whose fields of specialization in chemistry, biochemistry, biology and other life sciences make them especially well qualified to evaluate the effects of CO2 on the Earth's plant and animal life. Nearly all of the initial 17,100 scientist signers have technical training suitable for the evaluation of the relevant research data, and many are trained in the related fields. In addition to these 17,100, approximately 2,400 individuals have signed the petition who are trained in fields other than science or whose field of specialization was not specified on their returned petition.

The costs of this PETITION PROJECT have been paid entirely by private donations. No industrial money or funding from sources within the coal, oil, natural gas or related industries has been utilized. The petition's organizers, who include some faculty members and staff of the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine, do not otherwise receive funds from such sources. The Institute itself has no such funding. Also, no funds of tax-exempt organizations have been used for this project.

Benjamin Santer, one of the lead authors of the definitive U.N. climate report , said: "It's unfortunate that many people read the media hype before they read the [IPCC] chapter. I think the caveats are there. We say quite clearly that few scientists would say that the attribution issue was a done deal." In July 1996, over 100 European and American scientists issued the "Leipzip Declaration," warning that there is still not scientific consensus on the subject of climate change. "On the contrary," the statement says, "most scientists now accept the fact that actual observations from earth satellites show no climate warming whatsoever.



SOURCES:

Butler, C. J.: A two-century comparison of sunspot cycle length and temperature change - the evidence from Northern Ireland. In: Emsley, J., Hsg.: The global warming debate. The report of the European Science and Environment Forum (ESEF). London, ESEF, 1996, 215.

Fichefet, T.: Solar radiation and global climate change: some experiments with a two-dimensional climate model. In: B. Frenzel, Hsg.: Solar output and climate during the Holocene. Stuttgart-Jena-New York, Gustav Fischer Verlag, 1995, 169.

Friis-Christensen, E. & Lassen, K.: Length of the solar cycle: an indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate. Science 254 (1991), 698.

Haigh, J.: On the impact of solar variability on climate. Science 272 (1996), 981.

Kahl, J. D., Charlevoix, D. J., Zaitseva, N. A., Schnell, R. C. & Serreze, M. C.: Absence of evidence for greenhouse warming over the Arctic Ocean in the past 40 years. Nature 361 (1993), 335.

Lassen, K. & Friis-Christensen, E.: Variability of the solar cycle length during the past five centuries and the apparent association with terrestrial climate. Journ. of Atmos. Terr. Phys. 57 (1995), 835.

Neeman, B. U., Ohring, G. & Joseph, J. H.: The Milankocich theory and climate sensitivity. Part I: Equilibrium climate model solution for the present surface conditions. J. Geophys. Res. 93 (1988), 11153.

Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine PO Box 1279, Cave Junction, OR. 97523. www.oism.org/pproject/

The PETITION PROJECT PO Box 1925, La Jolla, CA. 92038-1925.

Weber, G.-R.: Smudged fingerprint: The elusive search for a human impact on the climate system. In: Bate, R., Hsg.: Global Warming. The continuing debate. Cambridge, The European Science and Environment Forum (ESEF), Cambridge, 1998, 63.


Black Blade (07/15/01; 02:29:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 58106)
The Myth of Man-Induced Global Warming and the Economy - Part 1


WHAT IS MAN-INDUCED GLOBAL WARMING


The proponents of the global warming theory say that global climate change is much worse than predicted. They also claimed that most scientists agree with this theory. That is a patent lie. In fact by a 10 to 1 margin, the world's most informed scientists question the validity of the research and question even the theory. However, the claim is that global warming is happening now, caused by human actions, and threatens the Earth with disaster, according the world's leading atmospheric scientists.

A 2,000-page UN report on the science and potential impacts of climate change gave the most authoritative statement yet that the Earth is warming rapidly, that the main cause is industrial
pollution, and that the consequences for human society are likely to be catastrophic. The report, from the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), made up of several hundred of the world's most distinguished meteorologists, including many Americans.

The president of the US as well as most of the World's leading scientists cited doubts about the science of man-induced climate change. For this reason the president will not impose on the American economy the cuts in industrial gases which Kyoto requires – and which the US signed up to at the original treaty agreement in 1997. The "Chicken Little" proponents of the theory also claim that the World temperature will rise by as much as 5.8C by the end of this century, almost twice the increase predicted in their 1995 report. Their dire predictions are of widespread crop failures, water shortages, increased disease and disasters for towns and cities from flooding, landslides and sea storm surges, they believe, with the poor developing countries likely to be hit hardest.


WHAT ARE GREENHOUSE GASES?

Ninety-eight percent of "greenhouse gases" are water vapor that are present in the atmosphere due to evaporation from surface waters and transpiration from plant life. The remaining two percent are CO2 and other gases. Much of the input is from natural sources such as volcanic activity. Some contributions come from living creatures as methane gas from livestock flatulence ( a reason to eat more meat? - not beans). Man's contribution of these so-called greenhouse gases total a whole 0.08%. The geologic record provides evidence that the earth has been warmer and cooler at different times throughout it's 4.5 billion year history.


WHAT ARE OTHER POSSIBLE CAUSES?

Climate fluctuations that occur on an even shorter time scales (decades to centuries) may be linked to variations in sun spot activity or catastrophic volcanic eruptions.


VOLCANIC ACTIVITY

Times in the geologic past when temperatures where much higher than today are related to periods of more rapid plate movements and greater volcanic activity. Both processes produced greater volumes of greenhouse gases that caused long-term warming of the atmosphere. Great volcanic events release greenhouse gases (water vapor and carbon dioxide) onto earth's surface, thus influencing the carbon cycle and global climate change. Major carbon cycle perturbations affect nearly every aspect of earth's surficial systems, and in often drastic ways. As carbon dioxide builds up in the atmosphere, causing greenhouse climatic warming, climate zones shift causing tropical conditions to migrate over temperate zones. Of course much depends on the type of volcano and eruption as some lead to global wraming, others can lead to global cooling.

Volcanoes that release large amounts of sulfur compounds like sulfur oxide or sulfur dioxide affect the climate more strongly than those that eject just dust. The sulfur compounds are gases that rise easily into the stratosphere. Once there, they combine with the (limited) water available to form a haze of tiny droplets of sulfuric acid. These tiny droplets are very light in color and reflect a great deal of sunlight for their size. Although the droplets eventually grow large enough to fall to the earth, the stratosphere is so dry that it takes time, months or even years to happen. Consequently, reflective hazes of sulfur droplets can cause significant cooling of the earth for as long as two years after a major sulfur-bearing eruption. Sulfur hazes are believed to have been the primary cause of the global cooling that occurred after the Pinatubo and Tambora eruptions. For many months, a satellite tracked the sulfur cloud produced by Pinatubo. The image shows the cloud about three months after the eruption. It is already a continuous band of haze encircling the entire globe. You can learn more about the cooling effects of sulfur hazes by clicking here.

Volcanoes also release large amounts of water and carbon dioxide. When these two compounds are in the form of gases in the atmosphere, they absorb heat radiation (infrared) emitted by the ground and hold it in the atmosphere. This causes the air below to get warmer. Therefore, you might think that a major eruption would cause a temporary warming of the atmosphere rather than a cooling. However, there are very large amounts of water and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere already, and even a large eruption doesn't change the global amounts very much. In addition, the water generally condenses out of the atmosphere as rain in a few hours to a few days, and the carbon dioxide quickly dissolves in the ocean or is absorbed by plants. Consequently, the sulfur compounds have a greater short-term effect, and cooling dominates. However, over long periods of time, multiple eruptions of giant volcanoes, such as the flood basalt volcanoes, can raise the carbon dioxide levels enough to cause significant global warming.


MILANKOVICH CYCLE

As geologists began to unravel the history of previous ice ages, it soon became clear that there is a distinct periodicity to episodes of continental glaciation. During the past million years, vast glaciers have covered large parts of North America and Europe at regular intervals of about 125,000 years. An explanation for cyclic ice ages was put forth early in this century by Milankovich, a Serbian meteorologist, in terms of coupling of the wobble and change of eccentricity of the Earth's orbit. It provides a convincing explanation of the major climatic changes over the past 3 million years, with glacial cycles of about
125,000 yr and other cycles at shorter periods. The Milankovich hypothesis was not accepted for many years because the variations because the subtle changes in the heating of the earth were thought to be too slight to cause major ice ages. Within the past two decades the theory has been revived, tested, and accepted by nearly all workers in climate history.

Three major periodic cycles are at work. The longest is a change in the ellipticity of the Earth's orbit, with periods of 95,800 years and about 400,000 years. The ellipticity is small, and the greatest value only permits a few percent difference between the closest distance and the farthest from the sun, but it leads to a large variation in the effective energy received at the Earth. There is also a variation of the inclination of the Earth's axis, with a period of 41,000 years. The extreme values of the inclination are 21.4 and 24.4. The axis also wobbles at period of 21,700 years. This "precession of the equinoxes" cause a change in the
phase of the seasons, relative to the location in the orbit.


SOLAR CYCLE

Scientists have long tried to link sunspots to climatic changes. Sunspots are huge magnetic storms that show up as cooler (dark) regions on the Sun's surface. They occur in cycles, with their number and size reaching a maximum approximately every 11 years (Schwabe cycle). However, they are thought to have relatively little effect on Earth's climate. First, these variations are very small: less than 0.1%, and second, they are also too short-term to influence the more slowly responding parts of the climate system like ice-sheets, glaciers, ocean, etc.

The length of the Schwabe cycle (defined through the interval between successive sunspot maxima) varies between 8 and 12 years over a period of about 80 years (Gleissberg cycle). Statistical analysis shows a good match between the average surface temperature and the length of the Schwabe cycle. Lower-than-normal surface temperatures tend to occur in years when the sunspot cycle is longest, and visa versa. This close correlation could account for the average surface temperature changes from 1940 back to the 16th century, and could partly explain the slightly cooling phase between 1940-1970. The period known as
the Little Ice Age corresponds to a minimum level of sunspot activity (the Maunder Minimum, 1645-1715), the estimated change in solar irradiance is a 70-year-long reduction of about 0.14%. Studies with climate models suggest that such a drop would neither be large enough, nor long enough to explain the observed cooling during the Little Ice Age. However, these climate models do not include the observed match between surface temperature and the length of the Schwabe cycle.


ANOTHER ALTERNATIVE VIEW

It just may be that global warming is a natural geological process that could begin to reverse itself within 10 to 20 years. This prediction comes from an Ohio State University researcher. The researcher suggests that atmospheric carbon dioxide -- often thought of as a key "greenhouse gas" -- is not the cause of global arming. The opposite is most likely to be true, according to Robert Essenhigh, E.G.Bailey Professor of Energy Conservation in Ohio State's Department of Mechanical Engineering. It is the rising global temperatures that are naturally increasing the levels of carbon dioxide, not the other way around, he says. Essenhigh explains his position in a "viewpoint" article in the current issue of the journal Chemical Innovation, published by the American Chemical Society.

Many people blame global warming on carbon dioxide sent into the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels in man-made devices such as automobiles and power plants. However, these people fail to account for the much greater amount of carbon dioxide that enters -- and leaves -- the atmosphere as part of the natural cycle of water exchange from, and back into, the sea and vegetation. Researchers and proponents of the theory who have tried to mathematically determine the relationship between carbon dioxide and global temperature would appear to have vastly underestimated the significance of water in the atmosphere as a radiation-absorbing gas, and that could lead to erroneous conclusions. A National Academy of Sciences report on carbon dioxide levels that was published in 1977 omitted information about water as a gas and identified it only as vapor, which means condensed water or cloud, which is at a much lower concentration in the atmosphere; and most subsequent investigations into this area evidently have built upon the pattern of that report.

A 1995 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a panel formed by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme in 1988 to assess the risk of human-induced climate change. In the report, the IPCC wrote that some 90 billion tons of carbon as carbon dioxide annually circulate between the earth's ocean and the atmosphere, and another 60 billion tons exchange between the vegetation and the atmosphere. Compared to man-made sources' emission of about 5 to 6 billion tons per year, the natural sources would then account for more than 95 percent of all atmospheric carbon dioxide. As it turns out, man contribution was overestimated and other natural sources were not accounted for or were ignored.

Nevertheless, even at 6 billion tons, humans are then responsible for a comparatively small amount - less than 5 percent - of atmospheric carbon dioxide. With nature as the source of the rest of the carbon dioxide it is difficult to see that man-made carbon dioxide can be driving the rising temperatures. A minority of scientists believe that the human contribution to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, however small, is of a critical amount that could nonetheless upset Earth's environmental balance. But that conclusion does not hold water (no pun intended).

This is how Essenhigh sees the global temperature system working: As temperatures rise, the carbon dioxide equilibrium in the water changes, and this releases more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. According to this scenario, atmospheric carbon dioxide is then an indicator of rising temperatures -- not the driving force behind it. Essenhigh (as well as the vast majority of scientists) attributes the current reported rise in global temperatures to a natural cycle of warming and cooling.

Another report by Cambridge University geologists Nicholas Shackleton and Neil Opdyke reported in the journal Quaternary Research in 1973, which found that global temperatures have been oscillating steadily, with an average rising gradually, over the last one million years -- long before human industry began to release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Opdyke is now at the University of Florida. According to Shackleton and Opdyke's data, average global temperatures have risen less than one degree in the last million years, though the amplitude of the periodic oscillation has now risen in that time from about 5 degrees to about 10 degrees, with a period of about 100,000 years.

The theory of why highs and lows follow a 100,000 year cycle, the explanation is that the Arctic Ocean acts as a giant temperature regulator, an idea known as the "Arctic Ocean Model." This model first appeared over 30 years ago and is well presented in the 1974 book Weather Machine: How our weather works and why it is changing, by Nigel Calder, a former editor of New Scientist magazine. According to this model, when the Arctic Ocean is frozen over, as it is today it prevents evaporation of water that would otherwise escape to the atmosphere and then return as snow. When there is less snow to replenish the Arctic ice cap, the cap may start to shrink. That could be the cause behind the retreat of the Arctic ice cap that scientists are documenting today. As the ice cap melts, the earth warms, until the Arctic Ocean opens again. Once enough water is available by evaporation from the ocean into the atmosphere, snows can begin to replenish the ice cap. At that point, the Arctic ice begins to expand, the global temperature can then start to reverse, and the earth can start re-entry to a new ice age. According to Essenhigh's estimations, Earth may reach a peak in the current temperature profile within the next 10 to 20 years, and then it could begin to cool into a new ice age. Granted this particular view is a minority view, however, it is no less valid than the theory of global warming.



Old Yeller (07/15/01; 01:01:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 58105)
Deep storage gold

This has been stuck in my mind since the term emerged out of the fog.Thanks to Max Rabbitz and Elwood's Gold Export Analysis for the following wild(is it?) guess.

Deep storage gold has to be gold to be delivered from blue chip sources,not nebulous sources such as gold that may exist on federal land.It could conceivably come from huge well-capitalized miners with ultra low production costs,i.e.;BARRICK GOLD.This allows the Fed/Treasury to mobilize US gold reserves,yet still preserve the perceived safety of the physical.

This gives them physical gold to sell into the market during times of stress.This gold is replaced by forward delivery commitments from said miners,they aren't going away anytime soon,are they?The Treasury NEVER has to produce proof that US gold reserves exist as true physical gold,only that they exist in a form that is not subject to counter party failure.Who sold Barrick those calls in the Feb.,2000 run?

The following are excerpts from Elwood's "Gold Export Analysis":

"During early 1998 when export demand spiked and earmarked gold couldn't keep up,it appears that someone tried to import additional gold to cover,but this was unsuccessful.'

"Yet,if the Federal Reserve outflows of other's earmarked gold isn't able to meet thoose spikes and the price isn't rising,from where can the additional supply be coming from?It's physical gold that's being exported so it can't have a derivative solution.It's also coming out of the US so it can't be Canada or any other of the dollar cohorts.Is it Veneroso who's out there shouting about large unreported official gold sales?Is there anyone in the world who believes a non-government entity with the wherewithal to accumulate the hoard needed,is naive enough to part with it at these prices?"

"the physical flow is there but the supply is only partially being met by the overseas major players who are now insisting on exchanging their paper for physical delivery.We know there's not enough physical in the world to cover all that paper,but they don't have to cover the paper that's held by the bullion banks because the BBs won't call for delvery and crash the system.In other words,if they can just get the paper back to the BBs using cash when they can and physical when they have to,then they're home free."

"How deep the mystery stash is,is anyone's guess,but we can't discount the possibility that they're using treasury stock.THE STAKES ARE THAT HIGH.They can force cash settlement on the ones that don't have the moxie to hurt them."





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