Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. Looking to buy gold coins and bullion? The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets. To join the debate request a discussion password here.
The opinions posted by all guests at this forum are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of this forum shall therefore not be construed as equivalent to endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.
ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 4/15/2001 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Mr Gresham (04/15/01; 22:47:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 51963) Parsifal Yes, and no. It was more about my emphasis on converting gold to paper dollar price (which thinking happens about every month with the mortgage statement in front of me.) I tell you, there was awhile last summer where I was starting to turn it around mentally, thinking more in ounces or Sovs or whatever, than in dollars. Felt a little bit disorienting in this world we work and spend in. You realize how thoroughly dollar-thinking is interlaced into our brain cells by now.But, yes, I was wondering just what process a Bill G-a-t-e-s would have to go through to get his tonne (about 400 bars of 100 ounces?) of gold stored in a vault under his house. Easy? Hard? Get in line? Ask Warren? JMB (04/15/01; 22:31:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 51962) Mr. Gresham Well said, Sir. I think we're on the same wave length...at least I hope so, and I also hope that you and your family had an outstanding Easter. cheers Gandalf the White (04/15/01; 22:25:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 51961) MORE on the Thai hunt for "Black Gold" Forestry Dept to drill cave to reach gold Chaowarin seeking audience with King The Forestry Department will drill open a cave which supposedly holds a World War II treasure trove left by the retreating Japanese army.Co-operation has been offered by Plodprasop Suraswadi, the department chief, despite his earlier reluctance to assist the treasure hunt led by Senator Chaowarin Latthasaksiri.Mr Plodprasop said heavy machinery would be used to drill and remove an estimated 2,000 tonnes of stone and boulders blocking Lijia cave in Kanchanaburi's Khao Laem National Park.Explosives would not be used. Drilling would stop once access to the inner cave was established.The forestry team would not join the treasure hunt. Drilling could begin in a few days. Mr Plodprasop said he was not sure the section to be drilled was the actual mouth of the cave.Drilling would cease if no opening was found.He said it mattered little whether he believed in the existence of the treasure or not. It was important to clear up public speculation about the treasure story once and for all.Mr Chaowarin said he was prepared to hand over part of the treasure, which he said includes decades-old US bonds, to His Majesty the King.The American bonds were worth US$55 billion, he claimed. Once retrieved they would be examined by experts. The bonds, together with about 2,500 tonnes of gold, would then be presented to the King and kept as assets of the nation. The bonds and gold were among 13 items waiting to be discovered.The treasure was in good condition as it was stored in titanium chests, he said.Mr Chaowarin said that at the onset of WWII, Japan had planned to conquer the world and therefore stocked up on bonds and gold for the purpose of financing its military invasion. Thailand, he claimed, was the nerve centre where the valuables were stored.Mr Chaowarin, who has spent the better part of a decade looking for Japanese gold but found nothing so far, said several thousand people had signed a petition supporting the excavation of the cave.He lauded the Forestry Department's co-operation in the treasure hunt and said he was seeking an audience with His Majesty tomorrow.On Wednesday he would announce his find. Mr Chaowarin's claim of a treasure trove has made the cave a popular tourist attraction. Mr Gresham (04/15/01; 22:23:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 51960) JMB I love to watch, too. But I think I get your drift. Just that back when I was 29, I saw things only one way. I probably still do, but at least I now know (well, almost) how stupid that was and that I should be cross-checking everything from 2 or 3 other viewpoints. Big ouch, many times. elevator guy (04/15/01; 22:03:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 51959) @Canuck, msg id #51946 Canuck, perhaps you mean "hysteria", instaed of "histery"?Anyway, I earnestly hope our way of life doesn't change. I'm just beginning to figure out what to do with this life, as we know it! JMB (04/15/01; 21:59:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 51958) Mr. Gresham You really have to see the 1979 film, "Being There" starring Peter Sellers. And now, I'm going to bite my tongue.OUCH! Peter Asher (04/15/01; 21:52:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 51957) ET msg#: 51948) That last paragraph was well, well said. beesting (04/15/01; 21:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 51956) Randy and ET, Thanks for The Great Debate. New readers may not fully realize just what Sir ET and Sir Randy are debating. So, see if I have this right? Sir ET believes Physical Gold( & Silver) as specified in the U.S. Constitution is the only medium of exchange(money)that should currently or at some time in the future,be in circulation.Sir Randy contends this is not practical on a world wide scale and "Issued" currency's with Gold "backing" as reserves(The Euro) will be the worlds choice in the future.I Hope I Understood this correctly?Gentlemen, it is my understanding this same or similar debate was ongoing in the U.S. Congress and Senate for over 150 + years I'm sure with many many good arguements from both viewpoints.It has still not been resolved! See the words of Congressman Ron Paul of Texas.Although, I personally agree with Sir ET's hypothesis(call me an old brainwashed fool) we have to face reality, we may never see Gold in circulation in our life times,in many country's.Please continue the debate, Thank You.....beesting. Old Yeller (04/15/01; 21:34:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 51955) The Euro,can it be trusted? There appears to be misgivings,if not downright fear of the Euro just being another government/old money central bank fiat currency.Will we see the kind of abuse and totally self-interested policy foisted upon us a'la the US dollar.There is change in the wind.I find Wim Duisenberg latest statements to be incredibly constructive in what the true objectives are.He is admonishing the complaining countries who are not seeing the interest rate relief they feel is needed,to look in their own back yards.Don't expect fiat games to rescue you from your problems,in other words.Whatever the end result may be,this kind of talk is a blast of fresh air.Taken in combination with previous statements such as;"the international use of the Euro is first and foremost the outcome of a market driven process,not to be steered by central banks or by political bodies.The ECB has adopted a neutral stance on the internationalisation of the Euro.The ECB intends neither to foster nor hinder the use of the Euro.In the past,major countries have,at times tended to promote the international use of their currency,primarily with a view to potential benefits for their national financial sectors.There have also been cases in which major countries have resisted the internationalisation of their currency,owing to the uncertainties may imply for the conduct of monetary policy.However,by maintaining price stability,the ECB almost automatically fosters the attractiveness of the Euro as an international currency."Excerpt from the speech given in Calgary,9/8/00.Is this a challenge to the hallowed Federal Reserve?It sure sounds like one to me.Are his actions following his words?Again,it would appear as if they are.Will they keep their convictions?Time will tell,however,one feels a lot more comfortable with words like this,as opposed to the inane bafflegab we hear from the likes of Greenspan or McTeer. Randy (@ The Tower) (04/15/01; 21:29:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 51954) Artie Farkle, if the physical-based trading infrastructure were in place, it could be that easy "When you speak of the ECB marking to market, are you saying that the method could/should be as simple as taking a random sample of buy and sell spreads within the EU?"If we wanted to mark our house to maket value at any given moment in time, the only way we could really do this is to actually sell the house. This process tells us at the same time as much about the current market value of the currency as it does about the house, does it not? <big grin>Each house is different, and similarly constructed houses are more or less valuable based on their location with respect to natural hazards, and of socio-political elements found in neighborhood, city, and country. To make a loose analogy: to rely upon the sale of paper gold to determine the value of physical gold is akin to relying on the sale of another house far away (or its blueprint) to suffice for determining the sale price for your own house.However, each ounce of gold in the hand is like identical houses in identical locations, so the situation is easily accomplished by witnessing the actual fair market sale of any such physical ounce. Given the near automatic arbitrage adjustments among national currencies, the selling of excess currencies anywhere in the world for "one physical ounce" of gold essentially sells the house out from under us, and yet we retain the title so long as we retain the gold.Monitoring the buy/sell spreads for gold on any reputable market that provides delivery on demand is sufficient for these mark to market determinations. Currently, London serves this pricing function for the ECB for as long as the LBMA continues to succeed in meeting the marginal delivery demands of its depositors and customers.It tells us something that the euro region CBs have backed away from seemingly lucrative gold lending insofar as we see with the Washington Agreement. It also tells us something that prior to this, the LBMA's mother hen (the Bank of England) suddenly announced plans to sell gold outright when British pressure for IMF gold sales failed. It also tells us something when none other than the IMF itself relented to a degree on its artificial gold price, allowing for the previously "un-utilized value" of 10% of these reserves to magically spring forth to create dollars in a special mark to market operation.When London's unique fate is finally sealed, it will then be to "Everyones" benefit for the high value of physical gold to trade in the open air. Until then, we continue to buy the cheap physical gold to make the best use of this artificially temporary situation. Parsifal (04/15/01; 21:28:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 51953) Mr. Gresham's questions to Another in msg# 51889 and Another's responses in msg# 51943 Mr. Gresham, in your questions to Another, you were not asking those questions with respect to paper gold, no? But Another did answer those questions with respect to paper gold, no? Perhaps there was a misunderstanding, no? Oh my. turkey hunter (04/15/01; 21:10:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 51952) Argentina in suprise move might incorporate the euro faster than thought Argentines ponder possible addition of euro to pegBy Carlos A. DeJuana BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (Reuters) - What first appeared to be theoretical musings about incorporating the euro into Argentina's peso-dollar peg took an unexpected turn this weekend that has left many scratching their heads. On Saturday, Economy Minister Domingo Cavallo announced the government was preparing a bill that would allow it to break the peso's 10-year-old one-to-one peg to the U.S. dollar when the greenback reaches parity with the euro. At that point, which isn't expected for at least a year, the peso would be fixed to an average of the dollar and euro. The switch would make the new peso more flexible, more stable and recognize strong trade ties to the European Union, Cavallo said. But the surprise move -- the bill could be sent to Congress as early as this week -- has left many economists curious as to why Cavallo is announcing the future modification at such a fragile moment for Latin America's third-largest economy........... SHIFTY (04/15/01; 20:55:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 51951) Periodic Ponzi Update PPU http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm Nasdaq 1,961.43 + Dow 10,126.94 = 12,126.94 divide by 2 = 6,044.18 PonziUp 288.46 From last weekI don't think they are going anywhere. RossL: Thanks for the link ! ANOTHER : Good to see you back !$hifty beesting (04/15/01; 20:41:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 51950) Hi Again Sir Belgian. Enjoy all your posts. It's my opinion one of the joys of this forum is the open exchange of thoughts surrounding the main topic.....GOLD!Here is just another small thought, again ignited by your last post.Readers may or may not be aware Japan and Russia have had an on going dispute over ownership of Sakhalin Island(north of Hokkaido, the current northern most island of Japan) and the Kuril Islands( a chain of islands running northeast of Hokkaido), since the end of WWII.Since Russia has now openly declared they are in the process of accumulating much gold, couldn't Japan take some of their U.S. dollars to buy Gold in enough quantity to buy back the Islands they lost in WWII? Okinawa,(lost in WWII to the U.S.) is now again part of Japan but the price was(good or bad?) a U. S. military command post for the entire far east region.These thoughts are meant only as a Gold marketing strategy((to focus attention back to "REAL" money)) in the hopes Hashimoto-san or one of his close associates may read this. I still believe the "Biggest" in the Know Players use Gold as their medium of exchange??Thanks for Reading....beesting. Randy (@ The Tower) (04/15/01; 20:38:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 51949) Seeker of the Grail, your question... (and Canuck, too) "Since the ECB is retaining 15% gold reserve will the individual countries also have to maintain a 15% reserve?" ---SotG--------The 15% in the form of gold was the level selected which joining eurosystem members would subscribe to the ECB. This does not answer your inquiry, but I have seen no indication that the member countries will be compelled to maintain any given proportion of their reserve assets in metal vs. paper. (Though it should go without saying that all these countries know that metal is more reliable than another nation's paper.)This might help you muse over the issue of reserves and percentages....By taking a lit match to its foreign currency assets, the ECB could in one act effectively reduce its current overall level of reserve assets by two-thirds, and yet increase it's holdings of gold to 100%. The question really comes down to what level of national reserves are compulsory, and further, what form of reserves is found to be most expedient.Canuck, Unless this was an attempt at sarcastic humor, I can't understand your admonishion that I "should not be so harsh with ET".Harsh? Harsh??? I have treated ET's comments with patience and respect, and truly with kid gloves in light of the abuse I have suffered in past weeks by his hand... so bad that at one point I considered perhaps he had developed a hidden agenda to simply contradict my every effort with no other discernible purpose.As for your comments on the euro and the dollar... as fiat currencies they are both "backed" by the same "thing". At issue, however, is the structure of the reserve assets to be utilized by the international community going forward.As a legacy of the past, the IMF required its members to hold dollar assets as "good as gold", but then allowed these dollars to float freely, marked to market, while in contrast its gold reserves were to be held artificially frozen at SDR 35 in value (this is equal to about $48 per ounce today). (The IMF had three dedades ago created a form of suplemental "paper gold" reserves called Special Drawing Rights that each represented the value-equivalent to an ounce of gold prior to 1971. That is to say, each SDR had the value of 35 dollars on the pre-71 gold standard.) Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury holds its own gold at an artificially frozen value of $42.22 per ounce.The eurosystem essentially says to us, "why must we support your national printing habits for these paper reserve assets that depreciate against real goods when we can instead return to a system of fairly valued gold assets in their place which perform as only gold can perform!?"I do not understand all the agitation by ET and others that this euro structure is a floating market system, not a fixed one? Do you WANT or PREFER your government to TELL YOU what the value of gold shall be? With a free gold market, as a market participant I have a chance to tell THEM how little I think their paper currency is worth in terms of gold! The more currency they print, the less I tell them it is worth through my higher purchase prices for gold....the coming fate of a nation that perpetually imports more goods and services than it exports -- making the difference with the abundant promises of the printing press.Wherein lies the rub? ET (04/15/01; 20:10:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 51948) Randy Hey Randy - thanks for your reply. You write; "Now, let me be perfectly clear about this to YOU, ET.... while I have always happily acknowledged andwelcomed this growing international trend for open (and untaxed) trade of physical gold, the "BIG PRIZE" I seecomes as I look forward to the day that the price discovery on the value of physical gold occurs on this samefreely traded PHYSICAL gold market. Unfortnately for now, the "BIG PROBLEM" as it currently exists (and youshould know this) is that the perception of value for physical gold is now influenced by the low price beingderived from the marketplace's price discovery upon the *value* of vast "paper gold substitutes" such ascommonly traded on the COMEX or within the LBMA."I think your premise should be examined a bit. I agree that trading gold freely is not only the big prize, it would be the only successful way to institute sound money. It would require currencies to be redeemable in metal. As to the big problem, the price is fixed for political reasons. Governments do this in concert, but I don't think they are omnipotent or beyond the laws of supply and demand. They simply don't want to own up to the impending credit bust and they're doing their best to engender "confidence"."Seeing that you failed to grasp that simple and basic "brick" within my collective commentary regarding the freetrade of gold, it comes as no surprise that you have subsequently failed to see my larger meaning when I explainedhow we do not look to the ECB to "arbitrarily" set the price for the value of gold when they mark it to market on aquarterly basis, but rather that the ECB would look to "us" to do it for them."If gold was "traded freely" Randy, the ECB would not need to mark its gold to market quarterly as the the market would be marking it constantly. It would trade as the money it is, a currency, always a store of known value."Right now, they use the London Fixbecause that is what "we" use at the present time. Anyone who follows my commentary (and who took time tounderstand the previous paragraph) knows why this is a problem. Why, you ask? Again, because this low LondonFix price reflects only the settlement cost of maintaining marginal confidence in the low value of the inflatedsupply of LBMA's paper gold substitutes among its participants."Yup - the fix is in. Yet you and I both see the value of holding gold at this time despite this problem."Since you engaged me, I was leading you to see that the ECB would not be "arbitrary" in the mark-to-marketvaluation efforts for its gold reserves, looking instead to "The Market". Further and more importantly, that thesesame PAPER-based valuations prevalent in the London market today would not be tenable into the future..."Yeah - you probably need to explain to me "again" what you mean by "The Market". In a free market, gold would trade as a currency, its value known."I certainly do not fault you foryour nostalgia, nor do I attempt to subvert your fond reflections of a bygone "gold standard" era."Thanks - memories are all that's left!"When relieved ofthe predominant influence of paper gold supplies, floating national currency prices for physical gold shall prove abetter representation of the value of each than nantionally fixed ("managed") gold coin currency prices ever did tothe eyes of the common consumer over time."You see, this is your great leap of logic. You claim on the one hand that gold's currency function should somehow be removed but at the same time claim gold will find its value in "The Market". I submit to you the two would be mutually exclusive. The only market where your gold could "find" true value is the free market, where no restrictions are placed on the use and trade of gold. Hopefully that is "The Market" you have in mind, as otherwise you have no reason to accumulate gold."Such human preferences and subsequent behavior to segregate "savings assets" and "transactionassets" as we have observed is seemingly a net result of free will. How very pleasant it is to sit on the banks,watching calmly with understanding as events "go with the flow" upon a river of natural human behavior."Well, I don't think you could be more wrong, your observations given due consideration. Bad money is the problem Randy. This is the behavior of people without sound money. Whether it's this version or the next version or whatever version you're talking about, the fix is not more of it.The main difference in our perspectives as I see it, is that I have much more faith in free markets than you. I also believe those free markets are the natural state of things, not the markets you see about you today. The only human behavior driving this thing is money and the franchise to make it. It ain't rocket science. However, I seem to also have much more faith than you in the law of supply and demand. Governments have their own peculiar supply and demand curve that pretty much runs with the overall credit (confidence) cycle. They ain't immune, despite what you've heard. They'll get downsized right along with their bad money, and I'll posit that is the reason you have gold in your hand. It's the return of sound money you so anticipate, a return to the gold standard, at least until they can cook up another fiat scheme. You seem to think it has no chance of "coming back" but I know it's a sure thing. Artie Farkle (04/15/01; 19:35:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 51947) Randy (@ the tower) Hello,When you speak of the ECB marking to market, are you saying that the method could/should be as simple as taking a random sample of buy and sell spreads within the EU?Your thoughtful input is appreciated. Canuck (04/15/01; 19:32:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 51946) We dawn on a new era Another quiet for a long, long time and boom #51943.In a while these words will echo long and far; we watch this new world together, yes?Canuck.P.S.: A friend of mine returned from Cuba this week-end; she talked of simple times, simple people. I said to her, "soon, we shall all have simpler times, the world has been revolving faster than we want, faster than with which we can cope. This age of speed, and endless productivity claim is over, man will regain awareness and forge ahead clearly and with purpose. The age of hystery and reckless abandon will leave us for a generation of calm and rationality. " Randy (@ The Tower) (04/15/01; 19:28:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 51945) Econoclast...bless you, dear sir, for adding this perspective on "problems" being in the eye of the beholder As a gold accumulator myself, I share your thoughts that price discovery based upon the gold derivative markets is a blessing and not a problem. However, to avoid seeing my posts grow into unreadably large tomes, I must allow many things to go unsaid, leaving the proper interpretation to be built upon the context of past posts and upon the good thoughts of folks like you who see these things most clearly.But while we're on the topic with this shared perspective, the reason I indicated that the current realm of physical gold's price discovery occuring on a paper-based market was a "problem" is as follows. It is a problem for that class of citizen who is not so sharp as to find their way to the prudent investment in gold at this time without witnessing such an obvious attraction of an ever-rising price in the face of ever-expanding (depreciating) currencies.It is also a problem for that older class of citizen who has long chosen gold as the means of representation for their past productivity (savings) and who now find in their retirement/divesting years that the modern valuation levels are "bogus" -- artificially low due to the swollen market of paper gold substitutes. In bullion banking and paper gold, we are seeing the same value depreciation that strikes at the heart of national currencies. A saver needs a refuge from this artifical expansion seen in the fractional-reserve lending effect, etc.While the low price of gold today represents a great opportunity for accumulators, sooner or later we would do well to welcome a fair valuation for ALL gold savers existing at the various stages of their lives...whether currently accumulating through excess productivity, or currently dishoarding through normal retirement spending. Thanks for your comments! Canuck (04/15/01; 19:12:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 51944) @ Randy You should not be so harsh with E.T.E.T. has been around since the 'beginning of time'; he knows what's going down.Fact #1: Gold is going to go up or it's not.What an absurd observation after these 21 years, yes?Fact #2: Gold will go up if and when the USA loses status of 'reserve curency'; a by-product of de-valuation of the US dollar.Gold is measured in US dollars, if and when the US dollar crashes, gold will go up and with Forum theorum, gold will skyrocket due to FUNDALMENTAL issues such as short sales, leasing, and a supply/demand deficit.Fact #3: The EURO, a new fiat currency, APPARENTLY backed by gold (by a DEBATABLE degree) is competing with the US dollar, supported (by a DEBATABLE degree) with aligning countries.Your arguments SOMETIMES imply that the EURO (and thus gold) will win regardless of the tactics of the pro-dollar arena. ET SOMETIMES asks the question, as some of us do from time to time, why the EURO and thus the pro-gold crowd will prevail DEFACTO?Why is this an absolute mon ami? ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) (04/15/01; 18:58:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 51943) Mr Gresham (04/14/01; 18:44:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 51889) Welcome Mr. Gresham. We talk for a time, yes? You write:"We who read here generally buy the coins, one ounce and less. The "Giants" you speak of are usually buying the large bars (100 ounce?), yes?" I ask you, how many of your bars in tonne? This is the small purchase size."Is there a limited supply for them to get, and only through the large brokers with their "private wealth management" programs?"I would say the BIS is best broker, always. It best to sell dollars for gold when gold is offered. "I am trying to understand why this knowledge you bring is not being acted upon by some others with "deep pockets", such that the markets would be moved, or shortages occur, even before the dollar is seen in weakness."My friend, you see the gold with "Western eyes". In mind, it be always, "how much currency does my gold bring". In this world of much paper gold, it bring not much dollars yes. In such matter, your currency makers do make your wealth lay low. This dream of much dollar currency for gold is the illusion in the "Western Mind". Your men of "deep pockets" do probe for shortages, however, their wish for low supply is not to be found. Their pockets are full with "credit gold" and sad are they at currency price this brings. It is the fools game to corner paper gold printing press, no? Sir, I stand with no fools! Days and nights do pass and one morning will bring a dollar price for gold you have never known. In that day, I will cast this currency down and walk with real wealth. In this day, the gold will trade in Euros and no bribe of credit gold will be needed to mark this new money.Today, I my world it be how much gold does dollar currency bring. A difference in understanding from yours, I think. Today, amount of bullion available for dollars no longer the reflection of bullion dollar exchange, it be now the most terrible bribe for world dollar use. An acceptable deal in most of world, such is real world outside your laws, no? But, it is here, in act of making extra credit gold, where the "shortage" you speak of, is measured my friend. A good man with one eye does see this time as of but few years and short days. Aside from our Euro political changes, history alone does show all great currencies end with this overselling of credit gold as last of era. This paper gold credit is always for the fools first and last. It value is later reduced to same as currency, along with holders of no gold. It be our good fortune (and yours) that bullion is offered still. For the simple man, such as I, this wealth is that for kings but more so for his people. For all peoples, gold will be again the wealth of ages. In this day, at end of dollar era, all do see real bullion sold for sake of market credibility, only. Perhaps too, bank credibility, I think. In this world, the lower this dollar paper price, the more bullion becomes available for credibility sake. It is the good thing for men of "small pockets" and the curse against traders and fools.I bid you the good fortune of "small pockets" with much physical gold! We watch this new gold market together, yes? Thank YouAnother Canuck (04/15/01; 18:46:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 51942) @ Cage Rattler "Maybe the ECB is too 'independent'?"-----------------------------------------------------------All eyes were on the ECB to raise rates this week and theydid not. What does this tell you Sir? Econoclast (04/15/01; 18:38:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 51941) Randy; Please Excuse Me... I have witnessed this on-going dialogue that you are engaged in with ET. I am extremely loathe to jumping in here. I feel a little like I am stepping gingerly into the Amazon, not quite sure what is lurking in the muddy water, only knowing that it is only a question of degree.But in your post where you say that the current price discovery mechanism is a "BIG PROBLEM", a thought immediately pops into my mind.It is not a problem for me.Perhaps if I were a seller (unlike the BOE) trying to receive "top dollar" for parting with my asset, the current mechanism could be a problem. But for a little player in the world just trying to accummulate a little "piece of mind", the current beast of a market that has evolved and given us the last few years, has been a real blessing.I agree completely that there are lots of problems with a "too low" gold price, I hope and pray that the U.S. government has not leveraged itself somehow, so that the Constitution itself or even more of my freedom is not at risk in some way here.But the current low gold price has brought gold to my door that would never had found its way if the price had stayed at 400 or even had climbed to the 600 that Bill Murphy believes should be the commodity price.As a matter of fact, if Reg Howe proves that the FED and the GOVT manipulated gold down, and they didn't lose ours in the process, I might just have to write them a thank you letter. It could very well be the nicest thing my govt has ever done for me! Canuck (04/15/01; 18:34:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 51940) From Trail Guide "Gold Trail" "Every time the ECB doesn't "blink", ANOTHER economic nation block looks closer at the EuroZone as the backing economy for a new reserve currency."------------------------------------------------------------BULLSEYE!!I hope you guys are getting the picture. Think of the 'theme' of the postings in the last year or so. There is an economic concern that, as of yet is to be DETERMINED. There is a energy crisis that, as of yet is to be DETERMINED. There is a CURRENCY issue that, as of yet is to be DETERMINED.A + B + C = X ; (ORO formula, deeply 'novicized'; hello ORO!!)Follow the words of FOA, follow them carefully, Europe is setting the stage; Russia as INDICATED recently, China as INDICATED lately, the Middle East as INDICATED lately, will follow suit. The planet is nervous, very nervous of the USA; perhaps nobody likes that but watch the envelopement of the EURO, it is truely developing.Re-read FOA's statement at the start; has it crossed your mind that the US is 'working too hard' at economic stability? The FED is skating, yes? Are the aligning forces pro-dollar or pro-Euro? Obviously the dollar is the 'currency' of choice today (literally today) but where will we be tomorrow?Again, are the aligning forces pro-dollar or pro-Euro?Thanks to all the great posts this week-end and especially thanks to FOA and to Another. da2g (04/15/01; 18:34:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 51939) SteveH- ANOTHER Seems like the ID number on Kitco is different than the one ANOTHER previously posted under (archives). Randy (@ The Tower) (04/15/01; 18:27:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 51938) For SteveH Regarding the "other" ANOTHER: "Do we have the real one here with us? Let's hope so. FOA, what say you?"I recall (from early March I believe it was) that Trail Guide brushed aside the imposter, saying effectively that we would know ANOTHER's Thoughts because they would appear right here at www.USAGOLD.com. Steve, you may further recall that the initial impetus to Michael's launching this Discussion Forum portion of the USAGOLD website was to offer a much-needed (meaning "civil") internet outlet for discussion of ANOTHER's seminal commentary. Netking (04/15/01; 18:19:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 51937) Megatron / Ironhead Sir Ironhead & Megatron - Silver I believe that you may be as close to the true run of events as best as we can perceive at this point in time Megatron. The 'global PM think-tank bull's collective'(maybe a bit like the Borg!)discerns that there will be a delay between the big moves of Ag and Au, maybe not a great delay but based on past performance there will be a delay. Maybe one fire will light another? Our best lesson in the markets(any markets)is that history repeats & repeats. I do believe there will be sufficient time to swap accross & I plan on doing so. But if 'Plan B's' scenario plays out which says what if there's not?, then we can rest safely in the knowledge that Silver previous percentage gains have usually been "significantly superior" to the other PM's & given the greater degree of suppression of Silver....we're gonna see Elijah's chariot! I plan on holding out above 7,8 & 15 Sir Ironhead, we're looking at a semi-permanent shortage not something that can be fixed within 24 months. I'll go on record and say we're going to reach the old tops & then blow them out, sorry about that 1980. Shalom Netking Randy (@ The Tower) (04/15/01; 18:04:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 51936) Poor communication? Impatience? ET, I think I've finally resolved the nature of the problem between us to this simple explanation.It is twofold. One: you do not (or choose not to(?)) grasp the direct meaning of my words, phrase by phrase. Two: you do not piece together the parts to understand the context of my individual posts as a whole (nor string together the posts to grasp the larger meaning behind my comments).I will agree that any given stand-alone phrase is disputable -- and meaningless without additional context . However, you seem to choose to turn a blind eye to the body of context I have provided. Some degree of tolerance or patience is required, because it is conceivable for a person to approach a bricklayer at the beginning phase of a project to say, "I can't understand what you're buliding" as the first bricks are put into place. But we now have a large "Tower" in place, do we not? Does that not make it easier to understand the "concept" behind the placement of the bricklayer's individual bricks? But inexplicably, you seem to see (or choose to see) only rough individual stones randomly scattered hither and yon.As a result, you recently said to me, (ET msg#: 51807) "Your system of the future fails in that you would not want gold to trade freely, its price set arbitrarily."This synopsis of my commentary and my personal position could NOT possibly be made any less accurate with devoted effort. How did you manage, and why must you continue to undermine the body of my efforts in this way?To be sure, the free trade of gold -- PHYSICAL gold -- is precisely what I advocate. And fortunately, more and more it is what we HAVE TODAY. Just ask anyone in the U.S. or Euroland who has wisely contacted MK to exchange some of their excess savings dollars for the timeless security of gold. (And did you see my latest posts on Russia following China in liberalizing its gold markets, themselves hot on the heels of the eurosystem countries?)Now, let me be perfectly clear about this to YOU, ET.... while I have always happily acknowledged and welcomed this growing international trend for open (and untaxed) trade of physical gold, the "BIG PRIZE" I see comes as I look forward to the day that the price discovery on the value of physical gold occurs on this same freely traded PHYSICAL gold market. Unfortnately for now, the "BIG PROBLEM" as it currently exists (and you should know this) is that the perception of value for physical gold is now influenced by the low price being derived from the marketplace's price discovery upon the *value* of vast "paper gold substitutes" such as commonly traded on the COMEX or within the LBMA.Seeing that you failed to grasp that simple and basic "brick" within my collective commentary regarding the free trade of gold, it comes as no surprise that you have subsequently failed to see my larger meaning when I explained how we do not look to the ECB to "arbitrarily" set the price for the value of gold when they mark it to market on a quarterly basis, but rather that the ECB would look to "us" to do it for them. Right now, they use the London Fix because that is what "we" use at the present time. Anyone who follows my commentary (and who took time to understand the previous paragraph) knows why this is a problem. Why, you ask? Again, because this low London Fix price reflects only the settlement cost of maintaining marginal confidence in the low value of the inflated supply of LBMA's paper gold substitutes among its participants. Please read the above comment as often as you must to gain understanding. Perhaps then I will not have to expend so much effort mitigating the damaging effects of your hasty treatment of my comments, such as we see in your recent message to FOA (ET msg# 51881) where you indicated, "Randy led me to believe the [ECB's] marking of gold to market would be done in a similar fashion as the current daily London fix or in other words, the paper gold market."To be sure, ET, (and I will be redundant as necessary) this is not the short destination to which I was leading. Since you engaged me, I was leading you to see that the ECB would not be "arbitrary" in the mark-to-market valuation efforts for its gold reserves, looking instead to "The Market". Further and more importantly, that these same PAPER-based valuations prevalent in the London market today would not be tenable into the future... precisely as the paper-based valuations of $35 per ounce were also not tenable beyond the previous "bullion banking" default. (The one that occurred in 1971.)ET, these comments of mine have been shaped by observations (my own and substantially augmented by others) of the functioning world and by simple insight into natural human motivations and behavior. Therefore, do not hold me at fault for discribing and appearing eager for the inevitable further unfolding of these conditions and developments which shall prove favorable to all who wisely hold physical gold. I certainly do not fault you for your nostalgia, nor do I attempt to subvert your fond reflections of a bygone "gold standard" era. When relieved of the predominant influence of paper gold supplies, floating national currency prices for physical gold shall prove a better representation of the value of each than nantionally fixed ("managed") gold coin currency prices ever did to the eyes of the common consumer over time.Perhaps FOA or ANOTHER would be willing to verify (in their estimable opinions) if I am correct in my key observation: when a person holds an equivalent market value of floating gold in one hand and floating fiat currency in the other, he will generally choose to spend the fiat currency first for his various expenses and thus "save" the gold -- under the expectation that paper currency tends to fade in value over time. And while while writing contracts for payments over time, such a "typical" person would not, therefore, likely commit to a gold clause obligating himself to weighted gold payments knowing that gold would likely be "dearer" over time, whereas paper payments would be easier (depending on the various interest rates, of course). We see this clearly today when even the staunchest of us gold advocates hold the power to incorporate gold clauses into our contracts, yet none of us do! Such human preferences and subsequent behavior to segregate "savings assets" and "transaction assets" as we have observed is seemingly a net result of free will. How very pleasant it is to sit on the banks, watching calmly with understanding as events "go with the flow" upon a river of natural human behavior. auspec (04/15/01; 17:57:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 51935) US Dollar Cataclysm? Always a treat to read FOA, and now Another is posting again too! Things must be really heating up behind the scenes. The currency war is under way? Was told today by an European country's consulate that up to 13 countries are looking to join the EU, quite the block developing there.Yes, the Gold Bugs and the Gold Advocates have certainly placed their bets in different avenues. MANY former gold bugs turned advocates will be most grateful for the sage advice given in these quarters!Still, a rather prominent question looms that must be decided by each of us as these gold events continue to unfold. To what degree is the US Dollar going to be affected? *All out cataclysm*? Or one of the more moderate {and common?} alternatives to hit an ailing and aging currency? Moderate inflation along the lines of US 1970's as opposed to Weimar Germany hyperinflation? Dual world reserve currencies? Will the dollar wag the dog via war? Who would it be with? If the Dollar goes will it take the US Constitution with it {that would be a clear reason for scrapping the Dollar altogether}?The questions are near endless still, and we will hopefully receive further illumination from those lighting our paths. SteveH (04/15/01; 17:44:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 51934) Will the real Another please stand out... www.kitco.com Seems someone has obsconded with the Another moniker.Date: Sun Apr 15 2001 19:02ANOTHER (You guys quit pickin on skinny--Hes me buddie-an-) ID#113380:He can't help it--If anybodys gonna pick on em, I'l do it.!...JCDo we have the real one here with us? Let's hope so.FOA, what say you? Seeker of the Grail (04/15/01; 17:34:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 51933) Euro Dear Sirs,A while ago I was hoping that Randy or anyone in the know would be able to enlighten me as to how the Euro "monopoly game" would be set up.Since the ECB is retaining 15% gold reserve will the individual countries also have to maintain a 15% reserve?If so, would the 15% be based upon 2001 GDP of each country, to determine their allotment of physical Euros In Jan. 2002?Maybe the auctions are just a means of shifting the gold reserves, to get the individual reserves, in line with the rules of the Euro "monopoly game".There has to be a common starting point no?May your chalice overflow,SOTG Seeker of the Grail (04/15/01; 17:11:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 51932) Gold for Paper? Dear Sirs,Paper can buy paper, Paper can buy comodities, paper can buy GOLD. BUT, gold should never buy paper. Why would one consider converting something of great value to something of lesser value, unless ABSOLUTLEY necessary? IMHOMay your chalice overflow,SOTG BH (04/15/01; 16:00:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 51931) HBM@#51916 Sir HBM,I agree with you that the UK most likely is already in. I just wanted to point out that contrary to what many believe, the EU is not necessarily eagerly wating for them to join the Euro. It could very well be the other way round.Concerning your problem with the timing for exiting some physical: As a former professional trader/gambler (now wholeheartedly concerted to a PGA) I was very impacient and my time horizon was hardly longer than a few days. But now I don't care yet about my exit point. As long as paper is reasonably (over-)priced relativ to gold I will use it for my expenses as well as for buying hard goods. Nobody can get my gold here and now, for anything, except an emergency.I came to buying physical gold by following FOA's comments AND accepting/adopting the concept and message involved. I'm willing to do the same when it comes to selling. As he once said: "There is a time to accumulate. Then there is a time to watch the price rising. And then there is a time when we will spend some of our gold (at much higher prices)." So, when you say it's easy to know when to accumulate, I'm very confident that we will also know when the right time has come to divest. BH Black Blade (04/15/01; 15:55:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 51930) Activists try to avert gas shut-offs http://chicagotribune.com/news/metro/chicago/article/1,,ART-51202,00.html Snippit:Activists on Friday launched a number of last-ditch efforts to thwart the cutoff of natural gas service to thousands of late-paying customers, even as Peoples Gas officials said they would proceed with plans to start the disconnections on Monday.Black Blade: Higher energy costs are working through to the consumers pocketbooks. This of course is only the tip of the iceberg. NG storage is at record low levels and production is falling behind last years levels by 2.7%. Yet 275 new NG-fired power plants are planned to come on line by 2006. I recently read that the internet now accounts for 8% of US energy use. If true, then we shall see unbearable pressures mount as a new server farm is completed every week on average. The average server farm uses enough energy to power 120,000 homes. It's going to get very "interesting" going forward as prices rise and consumers pocketbooks become increasingly lighter. Black Blade (04/15/01; 15:40:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 51929) Refineries Unlikely to Rescue Fuel Prices http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010415/business_energy_refineries_dc_2.html Snippit:NEW YORK (Reuters) - High prices for gasoline in summer and heating oil in winter will become annual events unless the strained U.S. refining system adds some capacity, but there is next to no chance of any new plants being built, industry experts say. Tight government regulations on refinery locations, environmental opposition to new plants, and years of poor returns in the refining industry have left the U.S. oil business straining to provide enough of the high-tech fuels demanded by new green regulations. With new stringent specifications for gasoline and diesel fuel due to take effect in 2006, plans to expand refineries must start now. A newly built refinery takes around five years to get up and running.Black Blade: More imports and increased production are meaningless without expanded capacity. The situation will deteriorate as old refineries require more maintenance and others are retired. This will continue to add pressure to the economy as "cheap" energy is gone forever. IronHead (04/15/01; 15:36:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 51928) Megatron, Netking, and Tree In The Forest Sirs Megatron and Netking: Come on folks; let's not be telling the whole world what "just" the three of us and perhaps Sir Tree is planning for the bilateral move from Ag to Au.Aren't we going to feel like day old bread when we sell into a break of the a $7 or $8 or even $15 plus barrier; to then watch the a - b - c, wave 1 of 3 or 5 down correction, into new highs, while at the same time Au lifts off simultaneously, leaving us three wondering how to get the golden butter on the bread. Maybe toast, is more like how we'll feel. But hey, I'm with you and ready to make the switch too - so be sure to post the exact high and time to make the changover. Wow, sure glad this thought process started about 2 years ago and the switch is ready to be flipped. Probably be Ha Ha on me and my great planning too.Sir Tree - That was quite a read from Ms. Williamson: It's great to read someone capable of articulating, what I can barely find originating, as a twinkle of thought. Made me want to take my grubby fingers out and max the plastic for gold and silver exchange. Oh,,,,,,,already did that,,,,,,,,,have to think of another monkey wrench to the czars and czarinas?Be sure and update us on your inventory at Comex, as Sirs Megatron, Netking, and I, have some serious movement to accomplish. Salutations,IronHead megatron (04/15/01; 14:59:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 51927) Netking I'm hearin ya, brother! The only problem I foresee is timing my jump-off point into gold!!!! Kind of like wondering whether to buy the Ferrari or the Aston Martin.I am PRAYING that the idiots in the central banks will go nuts and attempt to suppress gold long enough for us to liquidate our silver positions at a incomprehensible level, getting the biggest 2 stage blast-off in the history of mankind!!!! Netking (04/15/01; 14:39:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 51926) Silver There should be no excuses (from anybody on this forum)for not being ready for what will happen to Silver, very soon.(A little like the coming of the Son of Man it will strike many by surprise) The truth is when silver moves it wil be sudden & very violent...if it's initial price movement is double/triple in the space of a day (when it lifts off)then this should be no surprise to me. So much has changed for the bulls since 1980's high price of $52.50/Oz. Supply, demand, inventory control, production capacity & being continually held back by the greatest paper short positions in our markets history worth many times the physical markets they are "supposed" to be backed by. All the while Silvers rockets keep building & building pressure on the launch pad called 'market forces'.This is history in the making....but more than that, this will be THE SILVER QUAKE from which the small 1980 tremor preceeded.Buy physical silver, buy soon (now). watcher (04/15/01; 14:36:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 51925) test test slingshot (04/15/01; 14:34:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 51924) The Great Gold Choke. Reading all the entries from "The FIFTH HORSEMAN" contest one can derive that the price of Gold is sure to rise. The flight to wealth preservation for those who fail to take precautions is of some interest to me. The stock market is the only model I can partialy understand should it begin a downspin and the flight to wealth preservation from shareholders wishing to trade useless paper. The point I am looking for is when demand is so great for Gold that it chokes itself off from market. To explain. Large banks will have Gold. Bullion banks have Gold. Bullion dealers buy from the Bullion banks. Coin dealers who deal in coins and bullion have to either rely on purchase from the private sector or rely on the bullion dealers.So there is a chain linking everyone together. The question is who will break the chain of supply first when demand and price of Gold is moving upward.To know if the supply is slow because of demand or Gold has been choked off completly could be ofimportance to those wishing to preserve wealth. To all at the forum HAPPY EASTERSlingshot Gandalf the White (04/15/01; 13:33:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 51923) The Hobbits were correct !! < ; - )>> http://www.bangkokpost.com/newindex/today/150401_news01.html Bangkok PostSenator's gold claims based on tale originated by monk by Onnucha Hutasingh Ampa Santimetanedol The senator who sparked a sensational gold rush for WWII treasure, supposedly buried in a Kanchanaburi cave, yesterday admitted he has never seen any of the gold himself.Ratchaburi senator Chaowarin Latthasaksiri said his claim that 25,000 tonnes of gold lie in the Lijia cave at Khao Laem National Park is based on documents presented to His Majesty the King by two individuals, separately in 1993 and 1995. The documents identify an estimated 50 chests of gold in a train bogey and a steam engine buried there."I have never been into the cave. I never saw the real gold but I was citing a document to His Majesty, and I believe that in this country no one would lie to the King," Mr Chaowarin said. He is seeking a royal audience on Tuesday to report on his search. Mr Chaowarin quoted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who said the existence of 25,000 tonnes of gold could pay off the national debt.The skeletons of Japanese soldiers, who committed hara-kiri as witnessed by knives in their remains, are also said to be in the cave. The claims originate from a monk, Phra Aphisit Thammavaro, who used to meditate in the cave a decade ago. He is said to have relayed the story to the two men who submitted the reports to the King. Mr Thaksin said it could take two weeks before explorers can blast open the cave to allow further excavations.Mr Chaowarin revealed the premier visited the cave after he was shown a photo of a metal box containing several kinds of coins, dug up at the site. "Mr Chaowarin told me he has proof what is inside the box is real. What I have seen in the photo are gold coins which are invaluable if they are real," Mr Thaksin said. The premier said the senator was adamant the cave held treasures and needed government assistance to find it. He said: "Don't expect too much. If it turns out to be real, we'll discuss it, but if it turns out to be a false alarm, it has all been done in good faith."Chart Thai party leader Banharn Silpa-archa was sceptical at the report the cave contained 25,000 tonnes of gold and precious items. "Don't go that far, (even) 100 tonnes is a lot. "But if the treasure doesn't exist, at least we've found a new tourist site."Opposition leader Chuan Leekpai said the public should not pin their hopes on the treasure. "To pay off the national debt, we have to work hard and all the talk about what to do with the gold should be held off until we get it," he said.=======<;-) Tree in the Forest (04/15/01; 13:27:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 51922) Mr. Gresham I don't know if we ever answered the question of the rationale behind BOE sales, however it was my suggestion that while they would have to sell gold before EMU entry, the manner in which they did it was purely for the suppression of the POG and strength of the dollar. Hill Billy Mitchell (04/15/01; 13:19:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 51921) Mr Gresham @ # 51918 Mr Gresham @ # 51918Mr. G., SirI have the same problem as you concerning midnight tomarrow. How have you found the time to grace us with your posts the last few days?You are a cross-section if I ever perceived one. (meant in the most favorable way.)Very respectfully,HBM Tree in the Forest (04/15/01; 12:52:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 51920) GATA: Anne Williamson Excerpt from GATA's latest release, by Anne Williamson:REMARKS TO THE COMMITTEE FORMONETARY RESEARCH AND EDUCATIONThe Union Club, New York City, April 4, 2001"The truth is that wealth -- real wealth that serves allmen in all places at all times -- is created for themost part by people who do not speak second languagesand are not members of any faculty club. Educated ornot, and if American they are largely illiteratenonetheless, for the most part they dress badly andfrequently have dirty fingernails. Their lives aresubject to all the disorder the raw impulses of humannature compels. But it is they who pour the steel, mine the earth'streasures, bake the bread, and lay the bricks of thevery structures that support the fragile civilizationwe still enjoy, however tenuously. We mock them andtheir efforts to provide for themselves and theirfamilies at our peril. It is they -- the mass ofhumanity -- upon whom all of us must rely forcivilization's future, and when the greater of us suckdry the lesser of us, we debase both ourselves and ourshared future. The simple truth is that until we free money creationfrom the manipulative hands of a self-proclaimed eliteand return government to its proper role as theregulator of weights and standards -- and I do usethose words symbolically -- everything we treasure asindividuals and as a people is at risk. And so when you read in The New York Times, as youincreasingly shall in coming days, of the behavioristeconomists, when their as-yet-obscure names are thestuff of talk shows, scholarly journal articles, andthink-tank manifestos, only then will you be able tosay we've found the bottom. After all, it's a tricky matter to decide at whichexact point the zeitgeist is to change from hailingconsumers as heroes to denigrating them as greedyfools. The process of wealth destruction now afoot onWall Street will guide the media; they'll figure itout, and they'll let us all know long after most of ushave stopped caring. And, again, that's when you'llknow the market has found its bottom. I just hope that when we all get there, there's a dropof liberty left. In the meantime I'll keep praying that those humanbricks of civilization -- the toiling mass of mankind-- are wise enough to resist the siren call of theirbetters, who will surely be promising falsely aperpetual security in return for the last of ourfreedoms."Who is this Anne Williamson dude? Somebody needs to explain to her the great benefits of New World Order Socialism. Belgian (04/15/01; 12:51:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 51919) Connecting Peter Asher and Beesting... No, no...not what you think ! But the Japanese colossal savings an Russia's colossal debts. Both super-powers are excluded from the earthly pleasures of dominance.What if Japan should buy a little bit of physical Gold + a brand new currency that finds it strenght in that same gold ? Accumulate discretely, these 2 complementary means of exchange with their mountains of US-dollar-paper. Since it is impossible to switch all paper into physical gold...buy some new paper where you "accentuate" its relationship with gold. In the same manoeuver, you make Mister Putin smile again, because GATA told him to stash and keep all the Russian gold under the matrasses. Mister Schroder from Germany can tell his wife that an old axe-comrade (Japan) found a way out for all 3 of them : Japan / Russia / Germany (Russian debt) and Wim (Duisenberg)will smile and whisper...I told you... !What are the consequences of "unlocking" the Japanese unproductive Trillions of Dollars, in the above scenario :- POG rises and gives intrinsic strenght to Euro.- Japan disconnects from US protection and will compensate lost US-trade, with China / Russia / Europ. (Australia and India)- EMU receives confidence boost and new trading-partners.- Alot of beaten down currencies will be oxygenated with a falling dollar and dollar-dependance (addiction)will unwind.- Russia can start to dig its underground gold out and collect something to reassure its main creditor (trading partner) Germany.- POO can adjust in a rising dollar-price with a stronger golden euro. ME, will welcome the future betting on 2 horses (euro/dollar)- Yen rise, stimulates the japanese consumer to mobilize his savings for consumption. (depreciation halted). End of 11 years decline and contraction.- Japan can concentrate more freely on its relation with China, without Big Brother US watching. Dimishing hostility, decreases the need for military protection. Don't get involved in the Taiwan-web.-UK might decide to beg for EMU membership and dream about Hongkong-izing, again, without pounds of dollars.- Nikkei becomes alternative for Dow/Nas.- New carry trade : loan US$ - sell them as fast as you can- buy Euros and keep them. (NIA)- What europ couln't achieve with drunken Yeltsin, might work with streetfighter Putin. Watch his steps ! Note that Putin and his familly are fluently speaking German.- The cross-current from West to East is coming up.And ALL this magnificant "Change", might materialize, with only a fistfull of physical Gold ! *?*End of the dream about a big Easter egg. Is this scenario impossible ? Mr Gresham (04/15/01; 12:46:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 51918) HBM Selling: that will be a topic someday. May our "golden" years be upon us, before we get any more "silvery".An essay could probably be written: In Praise of A "Weak" Currency. The lack of political power behind the Euro means that the ECB has to act more as a neutral money-issuing body, held to certain fiduciary constraints. Sort of like a "private market money" would act, as many have suggested.In the end, all of the Keynesian type economic calculations about this trend or that in this country or that are unpredictable, unreliable, and vary from year to year. The currency should be a neutral factor in that, transparent in its issuing principles, and then let actors concentrate on their economic behaviors, not the movements of currency finance.Did we ever answer the question: Was Britain's sale of gold a pre-EMU-entry move, kind of like eating your candy up on the way to school, so you won't have to share it with your friends? Gandalf the White (04/15/01; 12:38:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 51917) WARNING ! The ol'e Crystal Ball does not see things as they were before !! MANY things are now an illusion !! Believe only in your own "THOUGHTS" until the fog has been lifted !!<;-) Hill Billy Mitchell (04/15/01; 12:04:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 51916) UK entry into Eurozone - timing BH @ # 51912Sir BH, you say"Perhaps the correct question is not 'Should Britain join the Euro', but 'Should Euroland allow Britain to join?'"My two cents (pure gut) The UK is already in. That is a given. Only question is timing. We ‘little bittie libertarians’ have the same problem with our own decisions, timing. In my case – when to exit some physical metal for some physical real estate and other hard goods. When to accumulate is easy. When to divest will be the challenge.Very respectfully,HBMPS: Not talking about the portion for insurance against chaos and enslavement. Mr Gresham (04/15/01; 11:03:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 51915) O Brave Abudahhab! You've got the right idea there. I've missed out on too many market moves that I "knew were going to happen" by being a day or week or 15 minutes off in my timing. (Including several in the last three weeks. Woke up late one morning two weeks ago and it "cost" me $3000.)Of course, most of the problem is my own (and everyone else's) psychology of then freezing and not taking any of the move, because "I was right but I missed it and now it's too late." Deer in the headlights applies to all of us, bull and bear alike.Half the reason for "better a year too early than a day too late" is our own psychologal rationalizing and self-defeat mechanisms. Anyone out there got that beat? abudahhab (04/15/01; 10:44:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 51914) Ready for LIFT-OFF! Folks, abudahhab is putting himself out on a limb. I am formally predicting that this coming week will be the beginning of the great bull run for gold and the EURO/SF.IMHO, Gold Bullion and EURO/SF deposits will be the great winning trade of the next 10 years.No doubt, the most dramatic coming development will be the sudden and utterly vicious arrival of $US hyperinflation. Remember the Grace Commission - it takes only 1 week to go from a period of normaly to hyperinflation. One week, indeed!Like Midas says, "You gotta be in it to win it!"Get you seat belts fastened, it gonna be one hell of a ride! Mr Gresham (04/15/01; 09:24:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 51913) Belgian (Looks like the date stamp did not roll over from yesterday, since the server was frozen up at midnight.)"There is not enough Gold to organise a renaissance of Qualitative approach. It will be suddenly recovered as a new holy grail". And Singlion's "1 cent down" each day or else it's End-Game. So they are managing on a course for a changeover, not a repair.Belgian: Your multilingual imaginating mind is at play once again and it's fun to watch. I was thinking, because of that guy "Belgian", when the talking heads on TV start blahvulating, about infla- and all the lala-s, it's going to be hard to pay them the serious attention they deserve... BH (04/15/01; 09:24:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 51912) ECB From the Financial Times:http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/articles.html?id=010326000511&Anchor010326000511COMMENT AND ANALYSIS: Europe got its monetary policy right after all: A conservative approach has helped the euro-zone avoid the vagaries of the US and Japanese Economies.From Prudentbear:http://www.prudentbear.com/Comm%20Archive/markcomm/i032701.htmPerhaps the correct question is not 'Should Britain join the Euro', but 'Should Euroland allow Britain to join?' Cage Rattler (04/15/01; 09:07:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 51911) ECB Maybe the ECB is too 'independent'? Perish the thought... The Invisible Hand (04/15/01; 08:35:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 51910) ECB is pigheaded http://www.sunday-times.co.uk From David Smith's Economic Outlook in the Business Section of today's London Sunday Times: PS: The European Central Bank (ECB) is proving so pigheaded I am beginning to have a sneaking admiration for it. Its council met on Wednesday in Frankfurt for a pre-Easter decision on interest rates and confounded market expectations by leaving them unchanged. The Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal Europe, the two Anglo-Saxon heavyweights of the daily European financial press, had stories describing the pressure on the ECB to cut. There were warnings, subsequently justified, that a failure to act would undermine the euro. A better guide to ECB thinking was provided in Germany. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), the German financial newspaper, questioned why "presents from the Easter bunny" were needed. Sure, the German economy was in a bad way but the FAZ blamed this on the "suffocating corporatist padding that protects German economic sclerosis". Deutsche Bank also predicted no change in interest rates. Assessing and predicting the actions of the ECB is a bit like trying to understand the German sense of humour. You may end up finding things funny but only if you get yourself into the right mindset. Thus, while we may think it sensible to cut interest rates in response to the global slowdown and the prospect of inflation falling, they see things differently in Frankfurt. The approach may seem mechanical but that must be because we don't understand it. The real reason I am starting to like the ECB, however, is that it presents the best possible argument for Britain to stay out of the euro. Business for Sterling could not hope for more. I don't agree with everything our own dear monetary policy committee does but it is flexible and transparent. The ECB did not even take a vote on Wednesday. Wim Duisenberg, its president, says its council "hears but does not listen" to outside pressures. Keep it up, Wim. SteveH (04/15/01; 08:18:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 51909) FYI www.kitco.com this morning at kitco:Date: Sun Apr 15 2001 09:46ANOTHER (TEST) ID#113380:Testing..... Chris Powell (04/15/01; 08:13:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 51908) The most dangerous journalist .... http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/731 ... in the world today is probablyAnne Williamson. Here are her remarkscriticizing the international economicorder, given to the Committee forMonetary Research and Education inNew York on April 4.To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email and get them immediately so you don't have to go look for them, send an email to:gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com Henri (04/15/01; 08:11:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 51907) Topaz Congratulations on the pending new addition to your family. Are you now to be "Pappy" Topaz? :-)Is it not strange how the world's financial jugglings can fall so easily into the background upon such joyous news?Could it be that these are the things that really matter? Trail Guide (04/15/01; 07:28:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 51906) Comment Hello all,I tried to get back on the forum, but it was absolutely full! (smile) Could not get to the trail page either. Have some replies and other items, will try again later. Thanks for reading and writing your thoughtsTrailGuide LeSin (04/15/01; 05:15:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 51905) Mr. Another & FOA/Trail Guide - Welcome Home! Gentlemen, thank you for your "Thoughts" , "Insight" and for presenting glimses of the "future for physical gold"Please let the conversations begin, as it has been far too long between chats. "S" tg (04/15/01; 04:50:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 51904) (No Subject) www. the-privateer.com A few snippets from the privateer newsletter. Really is frightening on how we are losing our liberties "A political Establishment is in place inside a nation when the people have a say in who their "elected representatives" will be, but NO say in the ideas followed and implemented by those representatives.As a perfect example of this, after the recent U.S. election, the new U.S. President has now presented the details of his first budget. This budget, which begins on October 1, has a spending profile of $US 1.96 TRILLION. It increases spending by 5.6% over the previous year. So where is the tax "cut"?"The first, and most fundamental, interest of any political Establishment that has ever existed is to keep itself in power. The (implicit) motto of any political Establishment has always been: "Power Is OURS". And that means the use of any and all means to stay in power. This can be done in a variety of ways. In the former Soviet Union, the top cliques of the Communist Party kept itself in power for decades through terror. Power can be maintained for centuries or even millennia, as the Catholic Church demonstrated with its fundamental opposition to literacy for centuries and its repressions of dissident thinkers and the burning of books under the Interdict. Today, the means of retaining power is more subtle. Most nations have elections - after which nothing changes. The Establishment usually gives the voting public two choices - "us" - and "us". Any REAL political alternative to "us" (the political Establishment) is carefully strangled at birth. If that is not possible, it is co-opted or pre- empted by the Establishment itself taking up the banners of the "dissidents", after which nothing much happens. If that can't be done, a challenge group is simply prosecuted, falsely or otherwise, out of existence. AND ON THE McCain-Feingold bill (S. 27)"First, the bill excludes what are called "issue ads" in the last 60 days of an election campaign. This is not only a plain denial of the Constitutional Right to Free Speech - it PROHIBITS - Free Speech. If any American disagrees or takes issue with what a politician has said, done or promised to do and (at his or her own cost) takes out a newspaper ad or prints a flyer or buys ad time on radio or TV to say so, he or she will be breaking the law, if it is done within 60 days of election day. Clearly, if this bill passes, the only Americans who will be heard are the politicians. Equally clearly, this is UNCONSTITUTIONAL."The second issue contained within this bill is a prohibition upon "coordinate activity". This item introduces year-round restrictions on the rights of groups to communicate about Federal politicians - using ANY method. Let's say that you want to keep an ongoing watch upon something which concerns you. Since the issue is important to you, you search for a site on the Internet run by a group that issues bulletins and alerts. Well, if this "campaign finance" bill is passed, you won't find such a group (at least not INSIDE the U.S.) because they will be prohibited - BY LAW.There is much more buried in this bill but these are the two main items." LeSin (04/15/01; 04:43:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 51903) "End-Game" Thoughts by "Singlion" Gold-Eagle Poster Thank you "Singlion" for your "End-Game" Thoughts "S" End-Game (singlion) Apr 15, 06:17 The BIG$-float is not suppose to float back to the US. This currency-battle between the US$ and Euro is now raging like a wild fire in the mind of men. If we can keep this status quo, both will be hugging in close embrace or combat, no matter who is stronger. It is in the nature.UK will decides the outcome. If she decides to go with Euro, then US will "colonises" the Americas. Yen can only watch and not be the centre for Asia. She will positions herself as the battle rages on. Japan will watch the US and European moves on the possibility of coming into ONE. We have to remember that the $ holds 56% of world trades.The above battles have no end. It will end only when Gold is free. Maybe collapse is the appropriate word.I think the gold manupulations have gone too far such that it is in their interests to bring the pog down 1 UScent at a time. Any other way means "END Game". IronHead (04/15/01; 03:08:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 51902) Miscellaneous Ramblings On Christianity, Constitutionality, Conscientiousness, and Gold The following test was sent to me by a friend of strong "liberal" persuasion; as in true "liberal/libertarian" thinking. It got me to thinking of our acceptance of conservativism vs. liberalism, within the context of how we are *led* to think.My intent is not to cast dispersions on Christians or Christianity - quite the contrary, with my desire to perhaps cause all such true "believers" to question or reflect upon that which governs, under the auspice of "One Nation Under God"The Political Scholastic Aptitude Test comes from the "Liberator" with statistics compiled by historian William Blum, author of "Killing Hope: U.S. Military and CIA Interventions Since World War II."Here is a list of countries the US has bombed since the end of World War II.China 1945-46Korea and China 1950-53Guatemala 1954Indonesia 1958Cuba 1959-60Guatemala 1960Congo 1964Peru 1965Laos 1964-73Vietnam 1961-73Cambodia 1969-70Guatemala 1969-70Grenada 1983Lebanon 1983, 84Libya 1986El Salvador 1980'sNicaragua 1980'sPanama 1989Iraq 1991-presentSomalia 1993Bosnia 1994, 95Sudan 1998Afghanistan 1998Yugoslavia 1999Question: Counting all these Acts of War (Since WW II), how many times did Congress declare War, thereby authorizing these acts as Constitutional?Question: In how many of these instances did a democratic government, respectful of human rights, occur as a result of the U.S. intervention?Choose one of the following:a. 0b. zeroc. noned. not a onee. a whole between -1 and +1f. zipg. zilchh. never happenedIronHead: The answer might also relate to how many times the Constitution will "not" be violated with respect to Article I Section 10 - "No State shall enter into into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts; pass any Bill of Attainder, ex post facto Law, or Law impairing the Obligations of Contracts, or grant any Title of Nobility."When thinking of our Brother's and Sister's throughout the world, on this day of Christian worship, we can also think in terms of whom and what we support with tax dollars, regardless of our religious beliefs.Salutations,IronHead Topaz (04/15/01; 02:54:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 51901) access, Simply me. WOOH! Hard to get on (to the Forum) tonight - probably all those Kitco blokes checking out Another.Simply,After spending a good part of the w-end trawling the Net for an announcement that may be the cause of Friday's (late) run-up in XAU,HUI etc, I've just been floored on finding out the draughty halls of Casa del Topaz are to once again ring out with the patter of tiny little feet.Yes Simply - I'm joining the ranks of Virtual Grandparenthood ('till September anyway) eeha!I knew SOMETHING was in the air - though THIS came as a total surprise (pleasant)...downside.....the little tyke is arfmerkin...(just kidding...on the downside bit) Belgian (04/15/01; 02:38:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 51900) Gresham and Econoclast " POLITICAL ECONOMY ", Sir Gresham, did you realise, when writing this 2 words, you were giving the whole essence, to be derived from these 2 words ? Bravo !!!Politics = the result of averaged human stupidity.Economics = the numerical result of emotions.Poehhffft, kukuluku for this easter egg. End of riddle.All barometers give false information for reason of Perception-dominance. Gustave le Bon : delusion of the masses. How many individuals do buy Gold out of intuition and only *then* start thinking about the reason why they bought it ? Politics, Media and amusement are the daily reflectors of what humans WANT TO HEAR - SEE - EXPERIENCE.Why was there never a Gold-Campaign in one way or another ?Why do Gold-Producers, never talk about the exceptionnal content of what they are mining ? Why has Gold never been RE-popularizised, in the past 30 years ? How many people are left, able, to refer at the 1980 POG run away ?Why do we all so easely accept a continious and constant Depreciation of everything. The path of least effort and resistance ? Isn't it exactly what Trail is trying to say in a philosofical manner ?The global paper-rush has replaced the past Gold-rushes.Quantity over-ruled Quality in everything. There is not enough Gold to organise a renaissance of Qualitative approach. It will be suddenly recovered as a new holy grail. Quality has been individualised. The oil has been mixed with the purest water, through violent pursuit of instant satisfaction. When this storm will calm down, the Golden oil will float again on the surface in all its beauty. Many will claim they invented it.Every aspect of our lives is constantly inflated and qualitatively depreciated. Just a blip in progress and just a scratch on the thin layer of civilisation paint. ge (04/15/01; 02:30:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 51899) ANOTHER/FOA Partial Agreement Agree:Yes, I do stay away from gold derivatives and mining stocks. I would not be able to see the danger of default without your help. Thank you! Disagree:I do not want another fiat money whether it is called Euro or not. I respectfully disagree. Peter Asher (04/15/01; 01:49:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 51898) Mr G ---Great one-liner itself! >>> Some day my kid is going to roll out one of her killer one-liners and ask me "Daddy, where are the grown-ups?" <<< Black Blade (04/15/01; 01:08:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 51897) Study Expects Low Summer Gas Supply http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/010412/world_oil_4.html Snippit:LONDON (AP) -- Crude oil inventories are so low that major importing countries could face tight gasoline supplies and volatile prices at the pump during the peak summer driving season, a respected study said Thursday. ``It is widely expected that the U.S. gasoline markets will be tight again this summer. ... Consequently, price spikes through the peak demand season are a possibility to contend with,'' the IEA said.Black Blade: Higher costs dipping into consumers pocketbooks will pressure an already precarious economy. This will also add to transportation costs that will be added to the cost of goods and services. The Drones like AG and Abby Jo used to spew absurd drivel that energy was no longer important in the era of the "New Economy." This year we get to test that theory. The Invisible Hand (04/15/01; 00:58:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 51896) Is FOA not contradicting himself? In the latest trail,FOA (4/14/2001; 14:10:14MT - usagold.com msg#63) The Journey, FOA is arguing that goldbugs shouldn't be trying to do the very same thing that people who trade the stock markets are doing; trying to make more currency. But when, some time ago, he was asked what was a significant amount of gold, he didn't give a number of weight, but of currency, $ 250,000. Black Blade (4/15/01; 00:46:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 51895) Calif. Gov. Says State to Recoup Power Costs http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010414/pl/utilities_california_dc_2.html Snippit:LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - California taxpayers will not pay a cent for the billions of dollars the state has been spending on power during its crippling energy crisis, Gov. Gray Davis said in an interview published on Saturday. The governor reiterated his frustration with a situation he said he inherited and questioned how his predecessors in the state capitol could have failed to plan for growth in electricity demand.Black Blade: Kommissar Davis shouldn't have any problem understanding how this crisis emerged as his own party in the legislature dreamed up this bungled deregulation. Passing the buck is easier though. As far as taxpayers not having to suffer the consequences, we shall see. He also said that there wouldn't be any rate increases, rolling blackouts, or bankruptcies either. It's going to be either higher rates or higher taxes. Could get very "interesting." LeSin (4/15/01; 00:45:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 51894) Test Test Test Mr Gresham (4/15/01; 00:29:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 51893) Duck & Cover? / Elwood A little DNS attack? Or are they all just rubbernecking what's going on over here. (Nothing. Quiet. G'won home.)Elwood: I new a guy named Elwood once. Definitely "Another"-type of person.Yes, "Wrongway". I hope I'm not simply jinxing gold by my presence among the ranks of its ownership. (Hark! I see Sir Michael rolling the plank out over the Castle moat even now.)Now that I think of it, two out of the three companies that employed me went bankrupt (and the third lost $400 million the next year).Why wish for Up-POG?Once they have completed their "buy", why wouldn't they want higher value for their asset? More wealth, more power. If they think the price is springloaded for Mt Everest, then they will hurry the "buy". They will compete with the others to buy more, earlier.Of course if they have ongoing enterprises generating the bulk of their available purchasing money, then they would wish for more time, although I don't know why they wouldn't use credit for this purchase, as with anything else of great ROI.I guess what often surprises me is how illiquid the wealthy sometimes are, but then it wouldn't take very much from very many to move gold.The basic conundrum: Either the wealthy know our scenario, and are able, or compelled, to mask their accumulation. Or, they disagree, nearly unanimously, with our scenario. (That includes not even caring enough about gold to look into it as a form of diversification. Heck, the word "golden" is everywhere in our culture. If you can afford investment advice, the first word you hear is "diversify". So why aren't they?)And a very likely in-between is that, trusting the word of the large institutions, they have mostly bought the paper game. A $10 million gold certificate from UBS might look pretty impressive to a dot-com newbie billionaire... (well, ex-billionaire... centi-millionaire...) View Yesterday's Discussion.
Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.