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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 10/15/1999
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
View Yesterday's Discussion.
THX-1138
(10/15/99; 23:25:54MDT - Msg ID:16535)
>>>>=====$400=====>
My number was chosen because of personnal pride. I bet a guy at work that if the price of gold never reached $400 by the end of the month of October, I would buy him a stuffed crust pizza at Pizza Hut. If the price touched $400 at anytime, I wouldn't buy him a pizza.
Some other reasons are the actual manipulation of the stock market and gold market by the Fed.
Y2K uncertainty coming.
Euro fighting with U.S. dollar for reserve currancy status.
Gold is pretty.
Stock Market selloff.
I also want to make another guess just to see if anyone agrees. DJIA will be at 9640 +or- 30 by next friday.
Chris Powell
(10/15/99; 23:20:49MDT - Msg ID:16534)
Gold shareholders, battle stations on Sunday morning
http://www.egroups.com/group/gata/256.html?
An alert from GATA. Please be
ready to act on forthcoming orders.
ORO
(10/15/99; 23:13:09MDT - Msg ID:16533)
Journeyman
Couldn't agree more.
But take note that bankers are taking gold to this dance as well. Watch out when dating someone bigger's friend.
Bonedaddy
(10/15/99; 23:12:30MDT - Msg ID:16532)
war?
Yes, there will be war. War has been around about as long as mankind. (You historians feel free to jump in here any time if you see me needin' help.) The cause of war is people wanting what they can't have. So they invent reasons to kill other people and take what they have. Religion plays a big part in war because people always want to claim that God is on their side. If your government wants to murder somebody, they can tell the world that they did it because it was "right in the eyes of God." If an individual does something like that, they give him a name like " Son of Sam", and put him away for life. (Unless of course he's President or something.) I always figured that God did a pretty fair job of killin' his own enemies, he probably doesn't need any help from the rest of us.
So what does all this have to do with GOLD? When all the paper money "burns", to use the words of ANOTHER, those left holding gold will have a price on their head equal to the gold in their hands. Think about it, paper promises are no longer good in that time. Only gold in the hand will be seen as wealth. That is true now, only most people haven't figured it out yet. When an angry bunch of spoiled "western thinkers" (I'm not talkin'about John Wayne fans) decides that God wants them to have your gold, so they can "do the right thing" with it, well.... it will get "interesting". We will be on the defensive, we have no choice in the matter. They are going to kill, rape, pillage, torture, (ect.)us whether we give them every last ounce in our possession or not. Maybe thats what ANOTHER meant when he said "gold will go to $30,000, but you won't like it." So, when that day comes, Tally Ho, gallant Knights! And take a cue from Poe, "Ride, boldy ride, the shade replied, if you seek for Eldorado!"
Gold Power
(10/15/99; 22:34:07MDT - Msg ID:16531)
nickel162 & gold stocks
nickel62,
The Inco deposit in Voisey Bay is still tied up in legal problems, or permitting problems. The Labrador government won't allow things to go forward unless Inco meets certain criteria that are too costly and ridiculous.
As for Golden Star, I saw where some guy named The Preacher gave it a going over on Kitco last night. I thought he did a fairly good job. He said that its current mine has not been making money but brought the company to the brink of bankruptcy, the new mine in Ghana had a mine life of less than two years, and its other projects are exploration with limited chances for success.
Freeport McMoRan (FCX) has always been penalized by the market because it has only one mine. And when you have only one mine, if something happens there, you're in big trouble.
Also, the mine is in Indonesia. The political risk is too great for me.
As for Atna, I haven't heard about it lately, I've never heard that the metallurgical problem it had has been solved. The stock made a huge runup on its discovery, maybe three or four years ago. Then, as it developed, and the metallurgical problems of the ore became known, down went the shareprice.
I haven't heard anything about it in a while.
I don't know anything about Dayton except that the company's story fell apart more than two years ago and I haven't heard any news about it being put back together.
If anyone has something, please let us hear it.
I don't think you'll do as well as you can with these stocks. You can buy mines now for less money than it costs to find new ones. So my strategy is to buy companies with deposits that are selling for pennies on the dollar.
Gold Power
YGM
(10/15/99; 22:20:28MDT - Msg ID:16530)
Hard to believe
as a very long time reader here that the writings appearing constantly, could get any better, and yet they do. I hate to miss a day!---Thanks--YGM
Tanglewild
(10/15/99; 22:09:30MDT - Msg ID:16529)
contest entry
>>>>-----$319.25-----$>
I am just figuring that the same type of game will be played for the next five days as has been played for the last little while so I picked a middle of the road figure. Of course if I'm a hundred shy I won't mind losing this contest..;-) Good luck to all.
Goldy Locks Guy
(10/15/99; 21:56:30MDT - Msg ID:16528)
OCT 22
>>>>>>> \\\\\\\\
>>>>>>>>>>>=============== 328.50 ===============>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> ////////
OK....is that purty or what?
Yep...I'm a newbie..and loving it! (I'm also a man of 35 if your interested) And I want to win that Gold piece. I saw the limerick that our other precious poster wrote and just felt inspiration swell inside of me....So, for your entertainment alone, I offer you my little ryhme. (ladies, get your tissues before going any further...it's a real tear jerker)
There once was a people empassioned
Who longed to see justice for Gold
They were called barbaric and old fashioned
"You're crazy" by most they were told
But steadfast in faith they believed
As Wall Street continued to boast
That once the BULL was conceived
The stock market would surely would roast
The fire would not be stopped
The dollar would look like a ghost
Investors realize their fortunes are cropped
Their savings nothing but toast
But there's a lesson you can learn
Even now it's not too late
If from Bubbles and Bonds you quickly turn
Great wealth can be your fate
So liquidate your stock
Buy some gold that's tried and true
It's a shelter from the storm
That's just started passing through
I just love this forum and have signed up because maybe I won't have to hop all over the internet searching for miniscule tidbits about the markets and what's going on.
I like this forum also because we all have a common bond...and for the most part that makes us friends..right? I've been trading in precious metals all year and have loved it, even in the shakey times, and have always believed that Gold will play a major part in the world once again..(After everyone has borrowed and leveraged their life away, but still...)
Anyway, I'm just hoping I can come up with some more cash soon for getting more gold at this current price....(315 + or -)
I must apologize to everyone for guessing the correct price for gold on the 22nd...(they might as well go ahead and send me the prize now.) Perhaps after the POG rises alittle more, you all can come to TN and I'll treat you to dinner...and maybe a desert.
OK...enough is enough...It's late and I feel dangerous.
Again, thanks to all of you poster who know more than I do. I appreciate all the insight, right or wrong...it makes for a well rounded intellect in the precious metals market.
Take care and keep up the great posts!
Goldylocks
RossL
(10/15/99; 21:54:55MDT - Msg ID:16527)
Goldy Locks Guy
It's an awesome poem but you don't need to post it 5 times!
Chris Powell
(10/15/99; 21:54:06MDT - Msg ID:16526)
Leigh, about Le Metropole Cafe....
www.lemetropolecafe.com
You can reach the Cafe's Bill Murphy
at Midasnh@aol.com and he'll endeavor
to fix your subscription problem
right away. I passed along to him
tonight the word of your problem and
he was very distressed. Please write
him ASAP.
Chris Powell, Secretary
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Al Fulchino
(10/15/99; 21:50:55MDT - Msg ID:16525)
oooops how about $$$388.50$$$
That would be a decent number
Goldy Locks Guy
(10/15/99; 21:44:32MDT - Msg ID:16524)
My guess for OCT 22
>>>>>>> \\\\\\\\
>>>>>>>>>>>=============== 328.50 ===============>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> ////////
OK....is that purty or what?
Yep...I'm a newbie..and loving it! (I'm also a man of 35 if your interested) And I want to win that Gold piece. I saw the limerick that our other precious poster wrote and just felt inspiration swell inside of me....So, for your entertainment alone, I offer you my little ryhme. (ladies, get your tissues before going any further...it's a real tear jerker)
There once was a people empassioned
Who longed to see justice for Gold
They were called barbaric and old fashioned
"You're crazy" by most they were told
But steadfast in faith they believed
As Wall Street continued to boast
That once the BULL was conceived
The stock market would surely would roast
The fire would not be stopped
The dollar would look like a ghost
Investors realize their fortunes are cropped
Their savings nothing but toast
But there's a lesson you can learn
Even now it's not too late
If from Bubbles and Bonds you quickly turn
Great wealth can be your fate
So liquidate your stock
Buy some gold that's tried and true
It's a shelter from the storm
That's just started passing through
I just love this forum and have signed up because maybe I won't have to hop all over the internet searching for miniscule tidbits about the markets and what's going on.
I like this forum also because we all have a common bond...and for the most part that makes us friends..right? I've been trading in precious metals all year and have loved it, even in the shakey times, and have always believed that Gold will play a major part in the world once again..(After everyone has borrowed and leveraged their life away, but still...)
Anyway, I'm just hoping I can come up with some more cash soon for getting more gold at this current price....(315 + or -)
I must apologize to everyone for guessing the correct price for gold on the 22nd...(they might as well go ahead and send me the prize now.) Perhaps after the POG rises alittle more, you all can come to TN and I'll treat you to dinner...and maybe a desert.
OK...enough is enough...It's late and I feel dangerous.
Again, thanks to all of you poster who know more than I do. I appreciate all the insight, right or wrong...it makes for a well rounded intellect in the precious metals market.
Take care and keep up the great posts!
Goldylocks
summicron
(10/15/99; 21:43:38MDT - Msg ID:16523)
My guess for Oct. 22:
I think the gold shorts are going to be desparately selling all next week and they are going to drive the price down to
$308.75
on Oct. 22, but it will quickly rise after that to its proper level of $389.50.
RossL
(10/15/99; 21:42:02MDT - Msg ID:16522)
Goldy Locks Guy
That's awesome!
Even if you are way too low on the prediction!
Goldy Locks Guy
(10/15/99; 21:40:05MDT - Msg ID:16521)
My prediction for Oct 22
>>>>>>> \\\\\\\\
>>>>>>>>>>>=============== 328.50 ===============>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> ////////
OK....is that purty or what?
Yep...I'm a newbie..and loving it! (I'm also a man of 35 if your interested) And I want to win that Gold piece. I saw the limerick that our other precious poster wrote and just felt inspiration swell inside of me....So, for your entertainment alone, I offer you my little ryhme. (ladies, get your tissues before going any further...it's a real tear jerker)
There once was a people empassioned
Who longed to see justice for Gold
They were called barbaric and old fashioned
"You're crazy" by most they were told
But steadfast in faith they believed
As Wall Street continued to boast
That once the BULL was conceived
The stock market would surely would roast
The fire would not be stopped
The dollar would look like a ghost
Investors realize their fortunes are cropped
Their savings nothing but toast
But there's a lesson you can learn
Even now it's not too late
If from Bubbles and Bonds you quickly turn
Great wealth can be your fate
So liquidate your stock
Buy some gold that's tried and true
It's a shelter from the storm
That's just started passing through
I just love this forum and have signed up because maybe I won't have to hop all over the internet searching for miniscule tidbits about the markets and what's going on.
I like this forum also because we all have a common bond...and for the most part that makes us friends..right? I've been trading in precious metals all year and have loved it, even in the shakey times, and have always believed that Gold will play a major part in the world once again..(After everyone has borrowed and leveraged their life away, but still...)
Anyway, I'm just hoping I can come up with some more cash soon for getting more gold at this current price....(315 + or -)
I must apologize to everyone for guessing the correct price for gold on the 22nd...(they might as well go ahead and send me the prize now.) Perhaps after the POG rises alittle more, you all can come to TN and I'll treat you to dinner...and maybe a desert.
OK...enough is enough...It's late and I feel dangerous.
Again, thanks to all of you poster who know more than I do. I appreciate all the insight, right or wrong...it makes for a well rounded intellect in the precious metals market.
Take care and keep up the great posts!
Goldylocks
Goldy Locks Guy
(10/15/99; 21:37:09MDT - Msg ID:16520)
My prediction for Oct 22
>>>>>>> \\\\\\\\
>>>>>>>>>>>=============== 328.50 ===============>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> ////////
OK....is that purty or what?
Yep...I'm a newbie..and loving it! (I'm also a man of 35 if your interested) And I want to win that Gold piece. I saw the limerick that our other precious poster wrote and just felt inspiration swell inside of me....So, for your entertainment alone, I offer you my little ryhme. (ladies, get your tissues before going any further...it's a real tear jerker)
There once was a people empassioned
Who longed to see justice for Gold
They were called barbaric and old fashioned
"You're crazy" by most they were told
But steadfast in faith they believed
As Wall Street continued to boast
That once the BULL was conceived
The stock market would surely would roast
The fire would not be stopped
The dollar would look like a ghost
Investors realize their fortunes are cropped
Their savings nothing but toast
But there's a lesson you can learn
Even now it's not too late
If from Bubbles and Bonds you quickly turn
Great wealth can be your fate
So liquidate your stock
Buy some gold that's tried and true
It's a shelter from the storm
That's just started passing through
I just love this forum and have signed up because maybe I won't have to hop all over the internet searching for miniscule tidbits about the markets and what's going on.
I like this forum also because we all have a common bond...and for the most part that makes us friends..right? I've been trading in precious metals all year and have loved it, even in the shakey times, and have always believed that Gold will play a major part in the world once again..(After everyone has borrowed and leveraged their life away, but still...)
Anyway, I'm just hoping I can come up with some more cash soon for getting more gold at this current price....(315 + or -)
I must apologize to everyone for guessing the correct price for gold on the 22nd...(they might as well go ahead and send me the prize now.) Perhaps after the POG rises alittle more, you all can come to TN and I'll treat you to dinner...and maybe a desert.
OK...enough is enough...It's late and I feel dangerous.
Again, thanks to all of you poster who know more than I do. I appreciate all the insight, right or wrong...it makes for a well rounded intellect in the precious metals market.
Take care and keep up the great posts!
Goldylocks
Goldy Locks Guy
(10/15/99; 21:36:34MDT - Msg ID:16519)
My prediction for Oct 22
>>>>>>> \\\\\\\\
>>>>>>>>>>>=============== 328.50 ===============>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> ////////
OK....is that purty or what?
Yep...I'm a newbie..and loving it! (I'm also a man of 35 if your interested) And I want to win that Gold piece. I saw the limerick that our other precious poster wrote and just felt inspiration swell inside of me....So, for your entertainment alone, I offer you my little ryhme. (ladies, get your tissues before going any further...it's a real tear jerker)
There once was a people empassioned
Who longed to see justice for Gold
They were called barbaric and old fashioned
"You're crazy" by most they were told
But steadfast in faith they believed
As Wall Street continued to boast
That once the BULL was conceived
The stock market would surely would roast
The fire would not be stopped
The dollar would look like a ghost
Investors realize their fortunes are cropped
Their savings nothing but toast
But there's a lesson you can learn
Even now it's not too late
If from Bubbles and Bonds you quickly turn
Great wealth can be your fate
So liquidate your stock
Buy some gold that's tried and true
It's a shelter from the storm
That's just started passing through
I just love this forum and have signed up because maybe I won't have to hop all over the internet searching for miniscule tidbits about the markets and what's going on.
I like this forum also because we all have a common bond...and for the most part that makes us friends..right? I've been trading in precious metals all year and have loved it, even in the shakey times, and have always believed that Gold will play a major part in the world once again..(After everyone has borrowed and leveraged their life away, but still...)
Anyway, I'm just hoping I can come up with some more cash soon for getting more gold at this current price....(315 + or -)
I must apologize to everyone for guessing the correct price for gold on the 22nd...(they might as well go ahead and send me the prize now.) Perhaps after the POG rises alittle more, you all can come to TN and I'll treat you to dinner...and maybe a desert.
OK...enough is enough...It's late and I feel dangerous.
Again, thanks to all of you poster who know more than I do. I appreciate all the insight, right or wrong...it makes for a well rounded intellect in the precious metals market.
Take care and keep up the great posts!
Goldylocks
Goldy Locks Guy
(10/15/99; 21:35:58MDT - Msg ID:16518)
My prediction for Oct 22
>>>>>>> \\\\\\\\
>>>>>>>>>>>=============== 328.50 ===============>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> ////////
OK....is that purty or what?
Yep...I'm a newbie..and loving it! (I'm also a man of 35 if your interested) And I want to win that Gold piece. I saw the limerick that our other precious poster wrote and just felt inspiration swell inside of me....So, for your entertainment alone, I offer you my little ryhme. (ladies, get your tissues before going any further...it's a real tear jerker)
There once was a people empassioned
Who longed to see justice for Gold
They were called barbaric and old fashioned
"You're crazy" by most they were told
But steadfast in faith they believed
As Wall Street continued to boast
That once the BULL was conceived
The stock market would surely would roast
The fire would not be stopped
The dollar would look like a ghost
Investors realize their fortunes are cropped
Their savings nothing but toast
But there's a lesson you can learn
Even now it's not too late
If from Bubbles and Bonds you quickly turn
Great wealth can be your fate
So liquidate your stock
Buy some gold that's tried and true
It's a shelter from the storm
That's just started passing through
I just love this forum and have signed up because maybe I won't have to hop all over the internet searching for miniscule tidbits about the markets and what's going on.
I like this forum also because we all have a common bond...and for the most part that makes us friends..right? I've been trading in precious metals all year and have loved it, even in the shakey times, and have always believed that Gold will play a major part in the world once again..(After everyone has borrowed and leveraged their life away, but still...)
Anyway, I'm just hoping I can come up with some more cash soon for getting more gold at this current price....(315 + or -)
I must apologize to everyone for guessing the correct price for gold on the 22nd...(they might as well go ahead and send me the prize now.) Perhaps after the POG rises alittle more, you all can come to TN and I'll treat you to dinner...and maybe a desert.
OK...enough is enough...It's late and I feel dangerous.
Again, thanks to all of you poster who know more than I do. I appreciate all the insight, right or wrong...it makes for a well rounded intellect in the precious metals market.
Take care and keep up the great posts!
Goldylocks
Roark
(10/15/99; 21:34:07MDT - Msg ID:16517)
Contest
>-----$336.00----->
Greetings to all members of the Round table.
Thanks to each of you who post on this forum, just for being here and sharing your wisdom at a time when wisdom is in short supply. Truly, for me, a beacon in the night.
I discovered the USA Gold Forum back in July, right around the time of that auction in London. You know, the one that sent the price of gold down another notch from $264 to $257 an ounce. Two days prior to the auction, I "went long" one futures contract. No big deal, I just wanted to be on the train before it left the station.
On the morning of the auction, I received a phone call from my broker at 6 am, explaining how the plummeting price of gold had shot right past my stop loss at $261, and that my contract had been sold. I was a greenhorn, you see, and a Ken Roberts disciple-in-the-making to boot. Didn't know about any pending auction, or even the purpose of such a thing. Apparently my broker didn't either since he made no mention of it at the time of my purchase. Rest assured, I was only one in a long parade of gold believers bushwhacked by a (paper) market full of nasty surprises. For me, it worked out okay, as the price I paid for what followed was indeed a bargain. Looking back, that auction became a pivotal point in my life, although I didn't know it at the time. Deep inside, something asleep had awakened. The quest had begun.
I came upon the Round Table, and listened. At first I had difficulty with the lessons, but as the days and weeks passed, I began to "get it" as the dots connected, bringing a picture into sharp — and disturbing — focus.
How lucky I feel to be alive at this critical juncture in history. It appears that right now, everything is at stake. All the chips are on the table, all the raises called. Very soon now, it will be time to see the cards. Maybe that is why I chose to be here at this time, to watch it all unfold, to witness and to learn. What an opportunity!
It should come as no surprise that gold sits at the heart of current events (the tip-off is that the word "gold" is almost never seen today in mainstream print). After all, it is gold (and guns) in the hands of rational minds which ensure the self-evident rights of every individual. And safeguards the sovereignty of every individual against those who would eradicate forever such notions as personal choice and freedom of movement as established by our forefathers.
Today I watched the Dow take another dive, and I can envision the army of Wall Street brokers calling their clients with the good news of the tremendous "buy signal." And buy they will, just a little while longer, I think. These are real people — trusting people — husbands and fathers whose children depend upon the decisions they make. But I wonder how many of these brokers anymore think about the lives they alter with the advice they dispense.
A long time ago I sold real estate. Before I was allowed to do so, I had to acknowledge a fiduciary responsibility to my clients, which meant I would always strive to act on their behalf, always with their interests placed before mine. I do not know if securities and commodities brokers today are held to any such standard. From what I have observed in the media, it appears that fiduciary responsibility has fallen by the wayside.
Roughly one month prior to gold's big move on that unforgettable and sleepless night a few weeks back, I wrangled with my broker over two measley gold options for the month of June in the year 2000. Silly me, I wanted to buy them, you see, because my gut said gold was getting restless, and because these long-neglected options lay dormant at the ridiculously undervalued price of $20 apiece. With as much force and righteous indignation as he could muster, my broker attempted to dissuade me from so wreckless a course of action. "But I hardly think that $40 is much of a risk, even for a smallfry like myself," I told him. I actually had to hang up, then call back later and purchase the options through a more assistive and less commandful broker. (At one point several days ago, those foolish options were trading at $1,800 apiece! Such is the power of gold.)
In the language of the day, I am now a goldbug, if only recently. Sure, intuitively and oh so vaguely, I recognized gold the barbarous relic for what it really is, but only recently acted upon that small whisper. For many of you, the night has been long. Because you have remained true, I stand in awe.
Soon, very soon.
Al Fulchino
(10/15/99; 20:45:17MDT - Msg ID:16516)
Journeyman re 16513
Thanks for the great post! If anyone needs to understand what disassociating gold from paper means, they only need read your post. I make an early nomination for this forum's Hall.
Al Fulchino
(10/15/99; 20:40:55MDT - Msg ID:16515)
Contest Entry
It is so very easy to be ignorant. Pain and injustice are two things that will bring you a crossroads. Ignorance? Definitely, more peaceful. Indeed!. But, very costly, unless you enjoy pain and injustices. A man finds that at a certain point in his life, he must take stock of many things. Spriritual, physical,and where he has been and where he is going. Part of that analysis will of course be financial in nature. This forum was found at such a time in my life. When I visit, to read, to learn I am challenged to drop, to value, or enforce my paradigms and beliefs.
I am an equal here <until I open my mouth :) >, yes a real equal in opportunity should I choose to pay attention and understand. In this forum, its unique group of posters, come by each day and unannounced, they drop their ideas and knowledge on the table for free. They let me pick it up, pinch it, shake it, and otherwise examine it for its value. At the end of the day, I often have something worth more than gold or silver.
megatron
(10/15/99; 20:16:14MDT - Msg ID:16514)
162nickel/voisey bay
Good luck. Very little 'practical, how to' info is passed along here. Lot's of 'on the money' theoretical though.
Journeyman
(10/15/99; 19:47:38MDT - Msg ID:16513)
WHY GOLD HAD TO GO: Yellin' @ Oro
Yellin',
You have very interesting theoretical considerations for
instituting (or re-instituting) the so-called gold standard.
It'll probably take me quite awhile to think them through.
However we have a long, successful track record with the previous
gold standard here in the US which suggests your theoretical
considerations may be, well, mostly only theoretical.
The united States grew and prospered on a gold standard for over
a century with only one hiatus during the Civil War. This would
indicate, theoretical objections aside, that a gold standard is
eminently practical and highly conducive to economic growth,
prosperity, and, propaganda to the contrary not withstanding,
stability.
The gold standard was killed, not because it didn't work, but
because the bankers and their cronies in the political cliques
couldn't profit from gold as money as they could from paper
money. The excuses normally cited to indict the gold standard,
such as massive bank failures, etc. were greatly exaggerated, and
in the context of the depredations caused by paper money, pale to
insignificance. The quality of such whinings can be deduced from
the ultimate indictment against gold, which is no more than
calling it names such as "barbarous relic." [SEE subsequent
post, "BARBAROUS RELIC".] It wasn't that the gold standard
didn't work; it worked too well, automatically protecting
people's savings and making large banking institutions peripheral
rather than central. Hmm! "Peripheral Banks." Has kind of a
nice ring to it don't you think? {Shumpeter & "Fiscal State.")
Originally at least, this profit for the bankers and their
political cronies was based on the seigniorage (profit) from the
manufacture of money. Even now it costs only about $.05 to
manufacture a paper bill of any denomination. Thus the profit
for manufacturing a $1.00 bill is $.95 or 1900%, while the profit
for manuracturing a $100.00 bill is $99.95, a whopping 199,900%
profit. This makes the drug dealing business look like
starvation wages. How much do you think it costs to create a
"megabyte" (electronic book entry) dollar? Compare this with the
miniscule profit for minting a gold coin, expensive because of
the cost of the raw material, gold. Incidentally, the
seigniorage for manufacturing paper money goes to the Federal
Reserve (which is a cartel of private bankers NOT a branch of the
US government -- ask me) while the much smaller percent
seigniorage for manufacture of coins goes to the U.S Treasury --
which by law, ironically, manufactures both coins and all U.S.
paper bills.
An essential part of making fiat currency work (and thus
maintaining the seignorage profit) is to take away the
alternatives, usually gold and silver. This is necessary because
when hard currency is circulating along side fiat currency, as
soon as banks and/or governments begin creating too much of the
fiat -- which is ultimately their purpose -- same denomination
fiat (or "concept") money will begin to buy less than same
denomination hard currency. This sparks the workings of inverse
Gresham's Law, that is "good money drives out the bad" because
those traders receiving "money" for their part of the trade will
only accept the fiat at less than face value, if at all. [Oro, as
long as there aren't legal tender laws and gold and silver are
available, inverse Gresham's will take care of controlling debt,
which as you point out, is "natural" to free markets.] The value
of "paper" begins to diverge from the value of physical.
Circulating gold acts as a highly visible barometer making it
obvious to everyone what's happening, which accelerates the
erosion in confidence. This brings the fiat scam to an end much
more quickly. The only tactic the inflationists have once this
starts happening is legal tender laws, which don't work very well
at all:
"It [the French ruling body, the National Convention]
decreed that any person selling gold or silver coin, or
making any difference in any transaction between paper and
specie [gold and silver coin], should be imprisoned in irons
for six years; that anyone who refused to accept a payment
in assignats, [paper money not convertable to gold or
silver] or accepted assignats at a discount, should pay a
fine of three thousand francs; and that anyone committing
this crime a second time should pay a fine of six thousand
francs and suffer imprisonment twenty years in irons. Later,
on September 8, 1793, the penalty for such offenses was made
death, with confiscation of the criminal's property, and a
reward was offered to any person informing the authorities
regarding any such criminal transaction. To reach the climax
of ferocity, the Convention decreed, in May 1794, that the
death penalty should be inflicted on any person convicted of
"having asked, before a bargain was concluded, in what money
payment was to be made." -Fiat Money Inflation in France by
Andrew Dickson White, p. 78 & 79
The escalation in tactics demonstrates that even such draconian
"legal tender" measures as tried by the French simply don't work.
White goes on to tell us however, "The great finance minister,
Cambon, soon saw that the worst enemies of his policy were gold
and silver. Therefore it was that, under his lead, the Convention
closed the Exchange and finally, on November 13, 1793, under
terrifying penalties, suppressed all commerce in the precious
metals."
The real answer for the inflationists is, then, to get the
alternatives to paper out of circulation so they can't work as
automatic barometers, exposing the inflation scam. This is one
root cause as to why the "central banks," vehemently opposed by
giants like Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson, still hold such
a large percentage of above ground gold --- it's not so they can
use it, it's so we can't.
You can see the footprints of the U.S. legal tender laws by
looking at any current $ denominated bill. On the face to the
upper left you will find, "This note is legal tender for all
debts public and private." The invisible ink reads, "Whether you
like it or not, sucker."
The Federal Reserve Act set up a banking cartel composed of what
had been competitors. (For a well researched, eye-opening expose
of how this was engineered, read "The Creature From Jeckyl
Island" by Ed Griffin) The Fed promised to stop "bank runs."
Previous to instituting the Federal Reserve in 1913, the very
worst year for bank runs had seen less than a 5% bank failure
rate. Twenty years later in 1933, thanks to the Fed, about HALF
of the nation's banks were unsound. To bail them out, it was
"necessary" to declare a bank holiday -- and incidentally, to
make gold ownership by Americans illegal.
Remember the "great" French finance minister, Cambon, recognizing
gold and silver as his greatest enemies? The American banksters
obviously did. In 1933 they and the U.S. government made gold a
controlled substance. Like cocaine or heroin, they made it
illegal for Americans to own gold -- and they got away with it.
Since Roosevelt pulled the trigger on stealing the gold on April
5, 1933 (by issuing infamous Executive Order No. 6102), less than
three months after taking office, it seems obvious to me that he
was merely a cats-paw and the gold-stealing had been planned and
set in motion much earlier, probably with the passage of the
Federal Reserve Act 20 years earlier.
On January 14, 1961 beloved president Dwight David Eisenhower
extended the ban, making it illegal for American citizens to own
gold even if held outside U.S. jurisdiction. Enforcing such a
law, was as in most cases, impossible without the cooperation of
the victim. As late as 1969 Americans, "the freest people in the
world," were still being jailed for owning too much gold without
a license. Collusion between banks and government? What do YOU
think?
... Though an indispensable requirement for the functioning
of an extensive order of cooperation of free people, money
has almost from its first appearance been SO SHAMELESSLY
ABUSED BY GOVERNMENTS THAT IT HAS BECOME THE PRIME SOURCE OF
DISTRUBANCE OF ALL SELF-ORDERING PROCESSES in the extended
order of human cooperation. The history of government
management of money has, except for a few short happy
periods, been one of incessant fraud and deception. In this
respect, governments have proved far more immoral than any
private agency supplying distinct kinds of money in
competition possibly could have been. -Economics Nobel
Laureate F. A. Hayek, _THE FATAL CONCEIT The Errors of
Socialism_, [Cap. emphasis added] (Chicago: The University
of Chicago Press 1988), p. 103.
When there was a gold standard, people weren't forced to put
their "hard earned" in the hands of banks, fund managers, or
other professional gamblers in order to just beat "inflation."
On the gold standard, there WASN'T any "inflation." Rather than
putting your savings in the hands of those professional gamblers,
you had the option to bury your gold currency in a coffee tin in
the backyard, etc., and have it gradually appreciate in value
without their help. When I explained this fact of the gold
standard era to a friend lately, he simply didn't believe me.
Amazing!
In short there was not, as people commonly assume, a failure of
the gold standard, in fact the reason it was done away with is
that it was too successful at protecting people from currency
depreciation ("inflation") caused by the banker-government axis.
Originally this was a straight forward scheme to institute paper
money to the benefit of banksters and their government cohorts,
and at the expense of everyone else. Various intellectuals
signed on (Maynard Keynes) or were bought to justify and explain
-- without telling the truth, of course. Keynes, I believe, was
his own dupe. He, among other well-meaning "economists" of the
era really believed they could improve on having that "barbarous
relic," gold, as a master. Many probably believed they could
improve on the economic process, which no one knew at the time
was a "complex phemomenon," not ameniable to understanding, let
alone central control. The ultimate proof that such attempted
control screws things up was the complete disintegration of the
"centrally planned" Soviet economy, which is still in process.
But even lesser control attempts, as practiced in US "capitalism"
(currently a "gentle" fascism) doesn't work very well either, as
I believe, we're about to find out. The well-intentioned failed
to take into account the stubborn "inflation" (currency
depreciation) which bankers and governments simply can't resist
causing as they incessantly create just a little extra "for the
gipper."
COMING (perhaps) PART II: Godzilla! (What is the result of the
creation of a gargantuan accumulation of so-called "megabyte
money" that has now dwarfed the relatively puny supply of
physical PAPER money?)
Leigh
(10/15/99; 19:32:00MDT - Msg ID:16512)
Doc Goldspoon
Dear Dr. Goldspoon: It's CANUCK, not me, who has a tummy ache tonight. He's probably been feasting on his Y2K stash of candy bars.
The first time I read your post, I was also trying to watch a Bible history video (by the great Japanese animator Osamu Tezuka, creator of Astroboy) -- part of a gorgeous series I got for the kids. You thought I was shaking my head, but I was really moving it from side to side as I looked from the TV to the computer screen. Now that I've read your message again, I must congratulate you -- you made an excellent point! Owning gold is a very comforting thing. All of us can rest easy tonight, next week, and throughout whatever Y2K brings knowing that we have coins that are "payment-in-full." They're also extremely beautiful and desirable. I truly feel for those who are suffering and fearful tonight, but I can't help wondering whether even now they would believe the truth about gold. You know, I think the problem with a lot of people is that they have no imagination -- they can't imagine a world that might be changed at all from what it's like now. The world has to actually change and they have to see it for themselves before they can even begin to believe what we're trying to tell them -- and then it'll be too late.
Tomcat
(10/15/99; 19:24:59MDT - Msg ID:16511)
PH in LA
You asked: "So, how do they do it? How are they preventing the price from exploding from here?"
With interest rates at around 6.5% and lease rates near 4% you can still roll over a lot of contracts provided that it is ok with the lender. Rollovers buy time and if they could just hold the POG steady then, as physical becomes available, they can close out more short postitions. Also, they might feel that if they can hold out till Y2k then they can use Y2k delays and temporary market closings to buy more time.
If the physical is not there they just don't have a lot of other choices unless contracts start to get settled in euros.
A lot might go on over the counter that we never hear about. Sure doesn't look like a free market to me.
YGM
(10/15/99; 18:56:41MDT - Msg ID:16510)
Gold-Eagle forum repost:
What does CNBC, General Electric, Gold & Jim Blanchard have in common?
(1912)Oct 15, 16:29 Interesting historic trivia:
I do not recall the exact date, but it was in the 1979-1980 period. Jim Blanchard was sole-owner of the then (and remains today) the largest precious metals coin dealer in the country. The gold company bore his name.
At the zenith of the 1970s gold bull run, General Electric made an offer to Jim Blanchard to buy him out. It was rumoured for years the buyout price was in the neighborhood of $28 million. After years of declining gold prices , General Electric tired of annual drains to its bottomline due to its 'gold-subsidiary's loses.' Consequently, it sold Blanchard Coins to someone else. And a few years later Jim Blanchard started up a new precious metals company called Jefferson Coin. The rest is history.
In recent years (unsure of date), General Electric bought total control of CNBC - which is undeniably the #1 advocate of Wall Street, and conversely, the arch enemy of GOLD.
The new gold bull is a monumental legacy to Jim Blanchard's impeccable timing - and General Electric's uncanny bad luck of always being a day late and a DOLLAR SHORT... or more correctly expressed... GOLD SHORT (:-))
Bill
(10/15/99; 18:52:35MDT - Msg ID:16509)
(No Subject)
>>>--- ?? ---> Never been very good @ projecting a certain close day price. I will say that looking at the charts... POG WILL hit $360 next week. (IMHO) The chart is beautiful. They're keeping the POG down as long as they can to re-capture as many calls and shorts as they can and it's working. The less volatile the market = the lower the value of options recouped. The lower the POG = the lower the loss on shorts as those contracts are replaced by longs. They don't expect to keep their losses at this level by keeping POG constant nor do they expect to be able to eliminate losses by pushing the POG way back down. Gold is going higher, everyone knows this. They're just trying to do this as long as they can to recoupe losses. They might even be able to continue this into next month. If so, even better for us. The wiser half of us will be fortifying our positions even more. With more DOW action like today I expect next week to be a great week for us all. I "expected" them to be able to push POG back down to 300 before the next explosion. It doesn't look like they're able to do that. Try not to get depressed when we don't see a daily increase. Instead, look at the daily and weekly chart and realize we will be seeing $400/oz before Christmas. (Picked up a couple of contracts and a little physical today)
Good luck to us all…… and keep smiling……it only gets better.
Gold Dancer
(10/15/99; 18:50:23MDT - Msg ID:16508)
RossL
That price was just a prediction for the close on Oct 22 which I mistakenly called Oct options expiration. Thanks for catching the error. I don't care if I am wrong but everyone
was looking up so...a short term counter opinion surfaced along with a resonable reason for it.
Gold Dancer
Hipplebeck
(10/15/99; 18:49:49MDT - Msg ID:16507)
>>>----------------------$320.20++++++++++>>>
I think that about says how I feel.
I think it's going to be a bit slower than we figured, but there aint no doubt where it's headed
Michael
Farfel
(10/15/99; 18:40:24MDT - Msg ID:16506)
CORRECTED Repost: Letter to Leonard Kaplan
Leonard wrote:
Date: Fri Oct 15 1999 18:35
uptick (sorry guys, but) ID#277249:
Copyright © 1999 uptick/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I dont see how celebrating the worst one week point decline in the equity markets does, or mean, anything
to the price of gold...in fact, I think the decline of equities is NEGATIVE for gold ( but just slightly.. )
....yes, inflation was finally apparent in today's report and that should help gold ( it didnt today however )
...but why dance on the graves of equity investors??..THEY ARE ALL POSSIBLE INVESTORS IN
GOLD AND PRECIOUS METALS...sorry, but doesnt make a lot of sense to me. Yes, celebrate the rally
in gold but not the decline in equities...
just the view from my chair....
------------------------
Farfel Responds:
Leonard, you sound like a perfect gentleman and I have read a number of your articulate posts.
However, I believe your perspective on the market today is completely wrong.
You claim that equities bulls must prosper for there to be a gold bull; and that is simply absurd. We have had one of
the most prosperous equity bulls in history this past decade yet gold has deteriorated badly.
Why? Because the New Paradigm in the stock market is completely unmitigatedly anti-gold. As long as bull
equities surge, that engrained attitude will not change.
So, actually, it is imperative that both bonds and mainstream bull stocks deteriorate notably in order to inspire
people to seek out alternative investments such as gold. In the long run, gold will NOT rise with the bull market...it
can't because of the inveterate hostility felt toward gold by this bull paradigm.
As somebody who constantly lectures goldbugs about the imperative to hop aboard "THE TREND IS YOUR
FRIEND" train...as somebody who declares categorically that the trend is established permanently as a persistent
rising Dow/Nasdaq trend...THEN UNDOUBTEDLY YOU hold most of your investments in bull market, mainstream
stocks, NOT metals. Moreover, until the past two weeks, your definition of a gold bull market consisted of a $5.00
upswing in gold, followed by a retracement. Obviously, you have been completely surprised by the extent of the
past two weeks' strength in gold.
So, since I imagine you are suffering big bull equities losses as a result of trading days like today, then I perfectly
understand your frustration at the jubilant reaction of KITCO posters to a falling stock market.
However, you are in no position to lecture them! After all, goldbugs have been crapped upon, stomped upon and
ridiculed by these bullish overexuberants for the past decade. They are entitled to feel a sense of satisfaction and joy
to see the tables reversing exactly as they predicted some time ago. Moreover, many gold bulls have also shorted
the market at various times and suffered huge losses, much to the incredible mirth and delight of bull investor
longs.
So please allow gold investors to enjoy their week in the sun without trying to inflict guilt upon them. If they are
guilty of insensitivity, then YOU and your bull market brethren are no better.
No doubt the manipulative Clinton government is doing the best it can to contain this unfolding market debacle.
However, this time, things may be getting away from them. It remains to be seen.
One thing is certain...this particular government will do everything in its power, no matter how antithetical it might
be to the free markets, to ensure that the current downspike is short and brief.
But the USA government is NOT omnipotent...it is NOT God. Market forces are tremendous and might overpower
their interventionist methods this time. Time will tell.
So, Leonard, although I agree THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND mentality has served you well this past decade,
you might do well to determine if the TREND is shifting irrevocably into a full chronic bear market.
Sure looks like it so far.
Thanks
F*
Hipplebeck
(10/15/99; 18:33:25MDT - Msg ID:16505)
Canuck
For what it's worth, It has been my experience that it usually takes a day or so after getting beat up to get your shit together and figure out what to do next.
Michael
nickel62
(10/15/99; 18:32:36MDT - Msg ID:16504)
Does anyone have any current knowlege on Inco Voisey Bay development?
I am currently revisting many of my stock investments in Canadian and US mining companies and am trying to find others to share information with about these companies. My interests are in Golden Star Resources(GSR)on the American and (GSC); Dayton Mining (Day);Expatriate Resources(EXR)Vancouver;Freeport McMoran Copper and Gold (FCX)on the NYSE and Atna (ATN)on the Toronto. Anyone have any information on any of these companies?Thanks for your help.
Farfel
(10/15/99; 18:32:14MDT - Msg ID:16503)
Leonard Kaplan re: Your Condescending Lecture at KITCO.
Leonard wrote:
Date: Fri Oct 15 1999 18:35
uptick (sorry guys, but) ID#277249:
Copyright © 1999 uptick/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
I dont see how celebrating the worst one week point decline in the equity markets does, or mean, anything
to the price of gold...in fact, I think the decline of equities is NEGATIVE for gold ( but just slightly.. )
....yes, inflation was finally apparent in today's report and that should help gold ( it didnt today however )
...but why dance on the graves of equity investors??..THEY ARE ALL POSSIBLE INVESTORS IN
GOLD AND PRECIOUS METALS...sorry, but doesnt make a lot of sense to me. Yes, celebrate the rally
in gold but not the decline in equities...
just the view from my chair....
------------------------
Farfel Responds:
Leonard, you sound like a perfect gentleman and I have read a number of your articulate posts.
However, I believe your perspective on the market today is completely wrong.
You claim that equities bulls must prosper for there to be a gold bull; and that is simply absurd. We have had one of the most prosperous equity bulls in history this past decade yet gold has deteriorated badly.
Why? Because the New Paradigm in the stock market is completely unmitigatedly anti-gold. As long as bull equities surge, that engrained attitude will not change.
So, actually, it is imperative that both bonds and mainstream bull stocks deteriorate notably in order to inspire people to seek out alternative investments such as gold. In the long run, gold will NOT rise with the bull market...it can't because of the inveterate hostility felt toward gold by this bull paradigm.
As somebody who constantly lectures goldbugs about the imperative to hop aboard "THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND" train...as somebody who declares categorically that the trend is established permanently as a persistent rising Dow/Nasdaq trend...then I have no doubt that you hold most of your investments in bull market, mainstream stocks, NOT metals. Moreover, until the past two weeks, your definition of a gold bull market consisted of a $5.00 upswing in gold, followed by a retracement. Obviously, you have been completely surprised by the extent of the past two weeks' strength in gold.
So, since I imagine you are suffering big bull equities losses as a result of trading days like today, then I perfectly understand your frustration at the jubilant reaction of KITCO posters to a falling stock market.
However, you are in no position to lecture them! After all, goldbugs have been crapped upon, stomped upon and ridiculed by these bullish overexuberants for the past decade. They are entitled to feel a sense of satisfaction and joy to see the tables reversing exactly as they predicted some time ago. Moreover, many gold bulls have also shorted the market at various times and suffered huge losses, much to the incredible mirth and delight of bull investor longs.
So please allow gold investors to enjoy their week in the sun without trying to inflict guilt upon them. If they are guilty of insensitivity, then YOU and your bull market brethren are no better.
No doubt the manipulative Clinton government is doing the best it can to contain this unfolding market debacle. However, this time, things may be getting away from them. It remains to be seen.
One thing is certain...this particular government will do everything in its power, no matter how antithetical it might be to the free markets, to ensure that the current downspike is short and brief.
But the USA government is NOT omnipotent...it is NOT God. Market forces are tremendous and might overpower their interventionist methods this time. Time will tell.
So, Leonard, although I agree THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND mentality has served you well this past decade, you might do well to determine if the TREND is shifting irrevocably into a full chronic bear market.
Sure looks like it so far.
Thanks
F*
Goldspoon
(10/15/99; 18:31:24MDT - Msg ID:16502)
***IF YOU HAVE HEARTBURN A MUST READ****
A little medical advice from ole Doc Goldspoon....take a deep breath and count to 10......NO! not 20! Leigh you'll pass out...guess she thought if 10 was good ect.......
NOW!! Feel better??? Read on and sleep well tonight and KNOW how lucky you are to be an owner of Gold...Question knowing it is 1929 and the market is crashing would you want to be an owner of GOLD tonight or not??? SILLY YOU of course you would want to own Gold...read on and Know why you own GOLD.... and give thanks tonight for the blessing that you do!!!
As i said yesterday..."a cornered rat will fight" we have him by the tail, just don't let go...
DON"T BELEIVE A LIE.....DON'T TAKE A BITE OF THE CASH APPLE BEING OFFERED TONIGHT... Here's why...
What we are seing today is an old magician's trick...(i'll bet FOA could tell some tales of such)...it's merely an illusion... the only thing dissapearing is what was not there in the first place....let me explain... (Humor me i'm gettin there).....
Do yourself a favor.. go to your safe deposit box, mattress ect. and take in one hand a gold coin..(good that's right! feel that?) now in the other hand a dollar bill... now read the top portion of the dollar... it says "Federal Reserve Note"..Question??... What is a note? Answer.. a unit of debt... NOW look at the hand with GOLD in it. Question what is it? Answer "NOT DEBT" in other words.."The opposite of DEBT" !!!!!!! is Payment!!! ie. GOLD!!! (that's right, Leigh is shaking her head yes...she knows!!)
Question?? what was "REALLY" disapearing today?? Answer!..The DEBT promise on the front of the dollar bill!!! IT's soundness is in question all over the world tonight!!!
Question? is the soundness of gold in question??? NO!!
The USA monetary magicians are creating an illusion that both are evaporating at the same time (RULES GAME 101.. This is.. COMPLETE IMPOSIBILITY! WHY? ANSWER..THEY ARE OPPOSITES OF EATCH OTHER!) ie DEBT IS NOT PAYMENT..
The truth is... the promise made on the front of the dollar is a little less belevible today by the rest of the world..
Don't be fooled by the slight of hand!!! Call their magic trick!!! They are bribing us with the offer of more GOLD to beleive in their hollow promises!!!!
YOU MUST CHOOSE...This Day!!! A fist full of promises to pay??? OR A FIST FULL OF PAYMENT!!!
Goldspoon says "A Gold coin in one hand is worth more than a fist full of paper promises in the other"
Don't beleive me???....Just ask an American Indian if USA paper promises are good as Gold....
Poor Uncle Sam never learns...still trying to treat others as American Indians...
REMEMBER? what ole Goldspoon said??? Now Leigh? You remember!!... That old ghost from our past thought long dead comming back to life? just in time for Holloween?? He was carrying a Sharp Sickle and looking to cut the Stock Market off at the knees!!! INFLATION! posted about a month ago... tug of war with the stockmarket tugging on one end of the rope...AH! You DO! remember?... (Sigh... She's shaking her head no...) Well..anayway...the end of the story can be completed tonight...sorry but it's rated "R" too much blood involved.....pray for those loosing a fortune tonight... and be thankfull that YOU! are not one of them.....
TownCrier
(10/15/99; 18:18:30MDT - Msg ID:16501)
After the Close: the GOLDEN VIEW from The Tower
The market jitters began with Fed chairman's speech yesterday (which we posted in part following the GOLDEN VIEW...regarding which we would like to thank those who singled it out as praiseworthy. "Thank you." We might suggest that anyone who missed it might want to go back a day and have a look. If others found it helpful, you might to. It not only helps explain the drop in gold prices, but would also be applicable to today's smallish rise in light of deteriorating alternative ivestments.) In his speech he reiterated what he said in Jackson, Wyoming about market participants suddenly losing confidence to panic, and the need to prepare portfolios for these rare but inevitable events. After that appetizer the main course was served by the Labor Department with their release this morning of the Producer Price Index which rose 1.1% for September, the largest rise since a 1.3% gain in September 1990--a month after the Iraq invaded Kuwait which touched off the Persian Gulf oil crisis. Analysts had expected it to come in at 0.5%, and while they expected the "core" rate--which conveniently excludes the food and energy components--to come in at 0.4%, the actual number was double that, 0.8% (the biggest gain in 11 months for this "core" rate.)
The markets tanked, with the DOW dipping briefly below 10,000 to end down 267 at 10019.71 (-2.59%). The Nasdaq fared slightly worse, losing 75.01 (-2.67%). In NYSE trading, declining stocks outnumbered advancers 2,380 to 689, and new 52-week lows beat new highs 489 to 11. This was the worst point-loss week (630) for the DOW since 1987. On the week, the DOW was off 5.9%.
The U.S. long bond suffered a sharp sell off on the early morning release of the inflationary PPI results, but when the stock markets opened later to their own sharp sell off, the 30-Yr Bond was the beneficiary of "flight to safety" capital. The yield fell to 6.261% as the price on the day gained 23/32. Incredible, that people will bid up the bond in a blind rush to "safety" in the face of the largest PPI increase in nine years. Incredible.
In currencies today, the dollar hitched its destiny to stocks instead of bonds, with losses against the yen and the euro bringing it to leves not seen in 11 days and in 7 months, respectively. The dollar closed down 1.89 yen at 105.44, and it also lost 1.2 cents against the euro to close at $1.0887 per euro. A currency analyst at Warburg Dillon Read told Bridge News, "Inflation is really picking up and there is no way to get around it."
Most people hold as conventional wisdom that gold is a hedge to protect your wealth through such an inflation as this mentioned by the currency analyst. However, many of us see gold as the preferred asset through any type of currency turmoil--be it inflation, deflation, or outright destruction. Whatever the reason, Chris Thompson sees it as an asset who's time has come. In news that is already old news to the Forum, the Chairman and CEO of Gold Fields Ltd (world's second largest gold producer) said, "Having looked at the fundamentals of the current gold market and the implications of the Ashanti situation, it seems inevitable to us that higher, if not much higher, gold prices are possible. Accordingly it seemed prudent to retrieve our hedge positions." Let that be a clear path for others to follow.
Spot gold was last quoted in NY at $314.70, up $1.80. While this may not seem too impressive, consider what was said yesterday, and also remember your history. How many times during the past two years have we all seen days on which the stock market was precariously poised for collapse, as it was today, and yet in the past gold would find a way on bogus news of Swiss sales or whatever other convenient reason to finish lower also, sinking with stocks. Today marked a nice departure, as have several other days in the past. Yes, we'd say things have changed, indeed. Stocks could have easily tanked much harder on this sharp shock delivered by the PPI, yet gold was left to find its own footing, albeit still in the influence of the action on the derivative trading floor.
Here's what Bridge has to say about life among those wagering on December prices...
NY Precious Metals Review: Gold up on weaker dollar, stock mkt
By Tina Petersen, Bridge News
Washington--Oct 15--COMEX Dec gold settled up $2.2 at $316.4 per ounce on
renewed buying interest after dropping $7.6 on Thursday. Traders said a weaker
dollar and stock market and an increase in the Producer Price Index lent support
to the gold market.
Traders said it was not surprising to see gold retrace some of its losses
from Thursday, which brought Dec to a 1 1/2 week low of $312. "With that type of
technical liquidation, we would expect a rebound after it broke below the $316
level," said a trader.
[Good grief they're getting picky on their price watching. Today's $2.2 gain wasn't a retracement of yesterday's $7 drop. You see, yesterday's drop was itself a retracement of the greater bold and brisk initial price surge of 30% in recent days. It gets a bit silly to talk about a retracement within a retracement. Just sit back and watch nature reassert itself, for cryin' out loud.]
The effects of a weaker dollar and stock market today overflowed into gold,
according to traders. "I think that the dollar and Dow are playing more of an
important role in the gold rally than I think they are given credit for. We are
definitely seeing buying resurface with a weaker stock market."
[Overvalued stock market...one of the "Five Horsemen." Check.
The dollar losing value--vs. the euro...another Horseman. Check, check.]
Also adding to bullish sentiment is that the US producer prices surged 1.1%
in September, the biggest increase in 9 years and far above the consensus call
for the index to increase 0.4%. The PPI was driven higher by increased tobacco,
auto and energy costs. The core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.8%,
also above expectations of a 0.5% increase.
[Uhhhh...Bridge? I hate to tell you this, but you switched your 0.4% and 0.5% values around. See my text earlier in the GOLDEN VIEW.]
Traders said support lies at $310-312 and heavy support below that at
$298-298.5. Traders said a 50% retracement is a normal move down after the
2-year high of $339 reached on Oct 5. "There aren't enough weak
longs liquidated yet, so there's potential for more downward pressure," he said.
***
Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.crbindex.com/
No further reproduction without written permission
---
Is anyone looking for a mining company that can't learn by the misfortunes of others?
Toronto--Oct 14--To minimize risk of lower gold prices and maximize its
revenues, Canada's Barrick Gold Corp. today said it plans to continue protecting
20-25% of its gold reserves--about 3 years of gold production-- through its gold
hedging program. Barrick Gold will realize a price of US $385 for every ounce of
gold sold from now until the end of 2001. Bridge
These two Bridge stories were provided and discussed earlier in the day, but for sake of a complete package, we'll run them past you here:
HONG KONG'S GOLD/SILVER EXCH CONSIDERS TRADING LOCO-LONDON GOLD
Hong Kong--Oct 15--The Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society, the
physical gold market in Hong Kong, is considering adding the trading of US
dollar-denominated Loco-London gold to its existing Hong Kong dollar-denominated
tael-gold trading, the exchange's president Raymond Chan told Bridge News today.
He said the exchange's members held a meeting Wednesday to discuss the
possibility and they will come to a decision on the matter by the end of 1999.
HONG KONG FIRM TO LAUNCH 24-HR INTERNET GOLD TRADING IN JAN-MAR
Hong Kong--Oct 15--Hong Kong-listed precious metals producing and trading
firm Tem Fat Hing Fung (Holdings) Ltd. plans to launch in the Jan-Mar 2000
quarter an Internet website that investors can use to trade gold around the
clock, the company's chairman Raymond Chan told Bridge News today. Besides US
dollar-denominated Loco-London gold, the planned website would allow global
investors to trade Hong Kong dollar-denominated tael-gold and Chinese
yuan-denominated gram-gold, Chan said.
[Hey Ted Arnold and Andy Smith...does that sound like a special effort, or one that would normally be taken for just "any ol' commodity?" Yeah, we thought so too. Special, not normal.]
The COMEX gold vaults saw no creature stirring, (not even a mouse.) Stocks remain at yesterday's values, as do the delivery intentions for October contracts. There was no appreciable net change in COMEX gold futures open interest, the total and end-of-day Thursday was 215,527, down 875.
Ahead of the expiration of November crude options contracts, November crude traded near $22.00 throughout mmuch of the day but rallied near the close to settled up 37c at $22.82. NYMEX November crude futures expire next Wednesday.
Here's a brief update on Pakistan from FWN...
Pakistan's Musharraf says economic revival top priority
By Fakhr Ahmad, Bridge News
Karachi--Oct 15--Pakistan's self-declared Chief Executive General
Pervez Musharraf today told a meeting of military corps commanders that he
hoped an interim government, which was impartial and efficient, could be
set up soon. He added that priority would be given to reviving the
country's economy.
Musharraf said the new government would ensure credibility,
transparency and accountability in running the country's affairs, the
official APP news agency said.
He said top priority would be given to economic revival, ensuring
national integration and good governance.
On the face of it, that doesn't sound like such a bad deal. We wonder if they're available for hire. If they franchised the operation, we could really clean up some sore spots on this tiny planet in no time at all. Who's next...anyone?
And that's the view from here...after the close.
Leigh
(10/15/99; 18:16:08MDT - Msg ID:16500)
Co(Bra)too
Hey Co(Bra), I'm already back in! Bill Murphy's a nice (and efficient) guy!
RossL
(10/15/99; 18:11:51MDT - Msg ID:16499)
Gold Dancer
Gold Dancer sez:
"I think the mines and the all those short will prevail till after Oct options expire."
Hey buddy, umm, OCT99 options have already expired. However, your viewpoint may be vaild if you intended to reference the DEC99 options.
CoBra(too)
(10/15/99; 18:10:28MDT - Msg ID:16498)
GC9Z bet - 1st. time wager
*>>>>> 324.75<<<<<
The real problem is to express my gratitude to our gracious host and the valuable time MK, everpresent at the oaken tableround, TC in the tower and all other knights and squires extend to all invited to listen to the saga of true and honest money. The historical truth of the only measure and honest standard of legal tender in barter, trade and as we now may experience in any modern economy - gold.
May the golden standard of USAGOLD and the forum persevere.
True regards CB2
PS: my timid forecast is aimed at lifting the spell of the recent trading range.
CoBra(too)
(10/15/99; 17:44:44MDT - Msg ID:16497)
Frustrated - Canuck ?
Relax, friend, your'e not alone, but don't expect the first battle of the war, which I also think it is, has just started its final phase. Counterattacks, skirmishes and even clandestine tactical warfare is to be expected in order to buy time for the retreating army - an army so spread out in their globalalization and dollarization goal of the economic and financial world hegemeony. A status brutally enforced on all nations by force of the gold/$ default in 1934 and finally in 1971.
Alas, a retreat it is, which will soon give way to an all-out flight as desperation sets in. First a few fortresses will be abandoned, in the end its every man for himself.
The dervative distortionists of capital markets will be the first to surrender since they've got the real "short" leveraged fuses, which will blow them apart - good riddance! While some of the major Bullion Bunker's will be protected as long as possible and as long as ammunition lasts - somone wiser said "you can print all the fiat paper, but you can't print GOLD".
Cheer up and put another golden bullet into your armory (silver bullets may be good for vampires only).
Take care CB2
Gold Dancer
(10/15/99; 17:17:16MDT - Msg ID:16496)
gold
>>>>>>312.00....>
I think the mines and the all those short will prevail till after Oct options expire. This is not all bad as it will give the mines time to redo their hedgebooks. I think the lower end of the range will be broken before the next up
move.
Gold Dancer
Leigh
(10/15/99; 17:14:11MDT - Msg ID:16495)
Co(Bra)Too
Thanks, Cobra(Bra)Too! I'm glad to be a member, and $99 is a small amount to pay in return for all the good things GATA is doing for us!
Have a nice evening!
CoBra(too)
(10/15/99; 17:05:59MDT - Msg ID:16494)
@Leigh
Dear Leigh,
the e-mail addresss are either:
lepatron@lemetropolecafe.com or
webmaster@lemetropolecafe.com
Since I feel "guilty" in "coercing" $ 99 out of you - hope you still feel it's worth a lot more as I do there and here. Best CB2
Leigh
(10/15/99; 16:56:01MDT - Msg ID:16493)
lemetropolecafe.com
Does anyone have an e-mail address for lemetropolecafe.com? I just got locked out because they have no record of my subscription payment, though I sent it a week and a half ago! With all the interesting news coming out of GATA, I don't want to miss the latest!
Canuck
(10/15/99; 16:42:02MDT - Msg ID:16492)
Journeyman, Ph in La, Goldspoon
The last half dozen posts stops the bleeding a bit, thanks.
May the rotten, manipulating, crooked SOB's bankrupt themselves. I hope the stolen gold they acquire evaporate.
Canuck
(10/15/99; 16:28:03MDT - Msg ID:16491)
POG
6:00 pm eastern,
I'm sick to my stomach; I don't understand what's going on?
Dollar taking a lickin', bonds tanking, inflation out-of-control and gold sits like a bump on a log.
Why?
I checked the posts so far today, a few of us have asked why
but I did not see an answer. Why?
I'm beginning to see Farfel's logic. This is a USA-Europe war isn't it? Farfel, please add to your previous comment; I
think some logic is required. The Sept. 26 announcement at
8:00pm-ish eastern (in terms of timing) was no accident. The PPI announcement at 08:30am is no accident in my mind, it allows for careful manipulation during the course of the day. Have you seen the graph today, there was a very narrow band, it looked so boring; it resembled a Sunday. There are and were extreme forces in play today. If left unchecked gold should of skyrocketed today. The forces majeur had the 'dogs' watching the bullion each and every second from
08:30 to 16:30, in my mind there is no other alternative explanation. In this little theory I believe Farfel to be correct that an announcement may be made over the week-end.
The announcement will be made in such a timely matter as to punish the forces majeur that supressed gold today.
I have been watching individual gold mining stocks as to hints of their respective 'hedging' positions. I am assuming
'big players' in the know will drop hints. Many of the majors made a small gain but Franco-Nevada took a significant hit today (-0.85/share). A few posters offered lately that FN was UN-hedged and in my little 'study' over the last 10 days or so I notice the 'hedged' mines are not
succumbing to the pressue at all. Franco-Nevada has taken a bit of a beating in the last week. Barrick is holding strong. Any comments to this tidbit?
Journeyman
(10/15/99; 16:25:12MDT - Msg ID:16490)
Thanx Leigh & PH in LA
Glad I'm not alone on this. My time is limited, but I'll
try to follow-up later with a report on the PPT. Working on another
post though, maybe someone else would like to Rockford or Mannix
the PPT? Regards, Journeyman
Village Idiot
(10/15/99; 16:16:02MDT - Msg ID:16489)
(No Subject)
>>>---374.20--->
I see the fear in the faces of the people in the market place. The great Wizard Greenspan has spoken and the more words he uses that I don't understand means trouble ahead I tell ye. The scramble for physical is on. Be wise like Kings and fill your vaults with gold. Your kingdom will be the stronger for it. But what do I know, I'm just an idiot.
Journeyman
(10/15/99; 16:11:49MDT - Msg ID:16488)
PPT found!!
Ah, blush, Google gives 17 hits to a search for "Plunge Protection
Team." Amazing what you can find on this here new fangled internet
thing!! Humbled, Journeyman
PH in LA
(10/15/99; 16:11:19MDT - Msg ID:16487)
!!!CALL TO ARMS!!! Basic question laid on the table.
http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1999q4/1999_10/991015.054854.rhodyeeee.htm
"On Tues., with spot silver at $US5.55, Scotia Mocotta here in Toronto was quoting a price to retail purchasers of 5.75 plus exchange and bar charges. Now, they are quoting 5.75 plus exchange and bar charges, but spot has dropped to 5.35, and they quote that price too. In other words, you can now buy physical silver, but not at the spot price from Scotia Mocatta. In effect, they have raised the retail price of bar silver here in Toronto by US20 cents per oz. This is additional evidence that the COMEX spot price is not real, but a function of a paper shuffle." rhody Date: Fri Oct 15 1999 05:48
"But silver, like all markets, is a three-ring circus - there's a lot going on at all levels...This is a crooked, crooked market and must be approached as such." ted butler Date: Fri Oct 15 1999 03:08 (http://www.kitcomm.com/comments/gold/1999q4/1999_10/991015.030833.ted_butle.htm)
After watching what amounts almost to carnage, first in the gold breakout two weeks ago, and again today in the DOW, there has been talk everywhere of PPT (plunge protection team) action, Fed manipulations, etc. We have seen frequent reference on these pages to the effects of futures and options as integral parts of the pricing mechanism in the gold market. The two respected posters above refer to an underlying confusion, which if not present in their own thinking, certainly is ever-present in my own. After watching the pasting our gold & silver got yesterday, I suspect that many of us would gain much tranquility of mind by an in-depth discussion of the mechanics of our modern markets, and especially the gold market.
FOA & ANOTHER have tried to tell us that the present gold market "is not as before" and that the "1970s concept of a supply/demand driven market" is a thing of the past. Those who have followed the discussions here should have, by now, a fair grasp of leasing, bullion banking, short overhanging supplies, etc. But there is still much to be explained about the actual mechanics of trading itself. Spot market price would be a good place to start. What is the "spot market" price of gold? Does the "spot market" actually exist? Why does "strong physical demand" not translate into any consistent effect on the price of gold?
How are the BBs able to so effectively smother the price of gold? Beginning two weeks ago, we saw historically high rates of volativity in gold. Yet, in spite of reported record physical sales we saw the price swings moderate gradually (always with downward bias) until a "logjam" seemed in place. Once again we are left with the impression that only a major departure towards a new Chinese involvement or the establishment of a new cartel-like management concept will serve to get things going again. So, how do they do it? How are they preventing the price from exploding from here?
Journeyman is asking the same question. "Journeyman (10/15/99; 15:37:47MDT - Msg ID:16482) "PLUNGE PROTECTION TEAM" more than just Urban Myth??"
FOA, ORO, Aragorn, Anyone with good technical backround on this: If you can shed light on this question, we will all probably sleep better at night.
Leigh
(10/15/99; 15:55:26MDT - Msg ID:16486)
Journeyman
I remember seeing on the Kitco chat room back during the summer a listing of the members of the PPT. It seems as though there were about eight or ten of them, and many of them were Goldman Sachs employees. Their average age was around 40. Does anyone else remember seeing this?
T. Remital
(10/15/99; 15:54:43MDT - Msg ID:16485)
>>>>>>339.50--------> close
We were surprised at the last big move- we may be surprised again. The year end target is still 400.00 Therefore
339.50 is a logical price along the way..
Goldspoon
(10/15/99; 15:49:14MDT - Msg ID:16484)
COMEX CLOSE
>>>----357.25----+>
After throwing a few chicken bones, consulting the tide schedule, Silvery Moon phases and acounting for the known and reading next Saturday morning's paper...i have graciously decided to cut those not privy to all this info some slack.... Thus giving a follow Knight an even break so as not to embarass anyone....... especially myself......
Goldspoon
(10/15/99; 15:38:41MDT - Msg ID:16483)
The hazards of short term predictions....
The finer tuned a prediction is.... the risk of being wrong escalates.... FOA's fundamental thinking is correct....buy the dips...bought ten more ounces of fine arabian stock yesterday myself....(smile)...(snicker)...(HORSE LAUGH)...FOA.... i guess we sold each other??? and fell off trying to switch horses at full gallup?? ...OUCH!!!
Inflation?? a falling dollar just makes it worse... physics 101... dollar down, gold up... watch for it!!!
Journeyman
(10/15/99; 15:37:47MDT - Msg ID:16482)
"PLUNGE PROTECTION TEAM" more than just Urban Myth??
The reference to the "PPT" from lepatron@lemetropolecafe.com via JCtex
in MID# 16455 is very interesting to me.
This is the first reference I've seen to the "Plunge Protection Team"
that's had a little meat on the bones, particularly reference to
"the New York's Peter Fisher." Does anyone have any references (URLs
etc.) as to the real existence of this group, what they do or how
they do it? Yea, I know, it would be super secret. Anyway, any references
would be most appreciated! Thanks, Journeyman
SCRCS
(10/15/99; 15:28:37MDT - Msg ID:16481)
comex future 22 oct 99
http://www.usagold.com/
>>>----321.25----+> from a first timer. why should the price be any different than that which I have guesstimated? i could only hope to be the one with the greatest accuracy but it's only a guess at best. nothing more.
apdchief
(10/15/99; 15:00:47MDT - Msg ID:16480)
GC9Z Close
>>>>-----$389.90----->X
We've seen the PPT, the FED, Ted Arnold, AG, the BOE, Marty A., and all the rest strive and connive to keep POG down. How many rabbits can they continue to pull out of their hat? At some point, soon, I believe some event will occur which blasts POG beyond the 325-340 high end of the range. From there, the sky's the limit.
FOA
(10/15/99; 14:50:00MDT - Msg ID:16479)
Reply
See 16465 for his full text.
Yellin' of troy (10/15/99; 13:03:53MDT - Msg ID:16465)
FOA -- the demand for gold is not insatiable
-----What you are missing is the distinction between wealth and money. ---------
Oh Yellin of Troy,
Your modern thesis comes from a viewpoint that wealth and money are different. I had the same debate with Martin Armstrong. His whole basis for de-wealthing gold was built upon the modern man concepts and how he stood higher than his brethren of old. From the beginning man traded wealth, not money! We brought things with things and found little need for a different concept of wealth. Gold became the wealth item that was most efficient to use. It was only the modern (modern for that time) bankers that said it was money. Your modern paper started as a contract for wealth in storage, then proceded to become a digital receipt for the completion of commerce. Today, it no longer holds the title of contract and is failing in it's ability to effect digital trade.
--- And while there is certainly considerable benefit and joy in knowing that you *could* do something, isn't the value of having gold to spend much reduced if you not only never actually spend any of it but are bound and determined that you never will? -------------
Cross the globe many times my friend. During your travels observe how spend able gold has become in every nation on earth. It is an old wealth/money that still buys anything. Black market, white market or no market, one can exchange gold for currency privately or officially at any time and any place. There are some on this forum that like I have run the world and know this currency well. Your pronouncement that power can prevent a peoples from maintaining wealth and spending it in gold simply does not stand-up to history, past, present and no doubt future. Even when the US stopped gold usage, most of the world continued to use it. Some of my forefathers were also "against the law" in those times. Find me a better reason than supposition?
---Have you sold everything you own, turned it into gold, abandoned your family, and taken to living in the gutter with your bag of gold hidden in your underpants? If not, there are things you prefer to their price in gold. And I don't imagine your present holdings of non gold assets are
unimprovable; wouldn't you buy more if you were richer? Whatever your level of wealth, you only want some of it in gold. And even if you are an incredible miser who only wants to caress his gold, there's a limit to how much you can afford. You're not infinitely rich, and you can't get richer by forgoing your dinner and deodorant for gold, and your fairy godmother will not bring you free gold every day.---
Indeed, I must ask the same question, for it is not I or my friends that walk your alley trail. Our gold is for the preservation of wealth in a world that is lacking "contract honour". Truly, it is the future that we defend against, not the past. Every investor gains and maintains his winnings during the here and now, not the past. Default is before us, therefore protect the family by owning real wealth now. All of the great families of old brought freedom from failure using gold a part of their wealth. We doubt they considered it as their day to day money nor do I. Our times have changed that concept. You, and humanity will continue to use the digital currencies as money for needs. Just as in the
past, the difference between retaining what you have and giving up a good portion to the fraud of currency is gold!
----------- The key point, and the fact responsible for the wealth of the modern world, is that you can expend your money on *investments*. You can use some of your gold to build awidget factory, or buy one, or if you don't understand widgets you can be a passive shareholder or
a lender in an outfit run by somebody who does, or you can lend to a banker who knows how to find and oversee such people and will spread the risk.----
-----However you do it, you can expect to get back, eventually, more money more gold, if that's money or if you insist -- than you started with. The whole thrust of your argument was that there is no limit to how much money you dream of, you want as much as possible. But then, if you
have a huge stash of gold, more than you have any intention of spending, more than you could ever suddenly need to spend, why not apply some of it to getting more? If you would never refuse a free gift of gold, why refuse an offer of interest on gold sitting idle in your vault, for which you have no other present use (and derive no other benefit) anyway? The sensible thing to do is to keep on hand only as much money as you might actually need or want to spend (before the investments pay off)
-- this is your demand for money, and it is finite and indeed rather limited -- and direct the rest to where it will be most useful, most productive, most profitable. And the people you let have it aren't going to put it all in their vaults and just revel in its glitter -- how would they be able to pay you your interest? They need your money for expenses: They can't sell any widgets until well after they have paid a lot of suppliers, secretaries, and salesmen a lot of money. They do need to keep some cash on hand, but only some; their monetary needs are limited just like yours, except that they are trying to reduce outgoing interest payments instead of increase incoming. The secretaries don't put all their wages in the piggy bank, either; they spend most of it. No one's pile of yellow is a black hole; each
economic actor has only some limited target for cash on hand, and the sum of all these is some definite aggregate demand for money, not a bottomless pit.--------------
Oh Troy,
Again I say, the demand for money is unlimited! I never said that it would not "circulate"! Into the great economies of the future will flow our gold. Yet, we will lend it or spend at our choosing to buy things. Be they investments or pleasures our wealth in gold will circulate most freely. For every person that works 10 hours instead of 8, his two plus efforts will make demand for gold. So, how much is too much? The world has never seen this end and I hope it never does.
------Of course, if gold is grossly underpriced, it can be a very fine investment itself. If you believe others will soon come to understand its merits and correct its price upwards, then you can increase your buying power, your wealth, for the future by merely buying and (for a while) holding gold. In some circumstances this could be both safer and more profitable than that uncertain widget business. But this is a disequilibrium, a temporary condition, and the whole (expected) gain is in the correction. You can't perennially suppose that gold is on the verge of an upward surge that
somehow never happens; such expectations would be irrational and you wouldn't make any profits. --------
No, no! Gold is not grossly under priced, far from it. I say that gold is grossly under used! People have been defrauded into using paper as money instead of using gold as wealth in trade. How can the price be correct when no paper money can define wealth? No person knows the true wealth of gold. It's value will increase with usage in trade not trading it for gain. The true advantages we attain from gold are found in it's transformation in use. History has shown the most stable money was always gold itself, not the modern currencies. Paper will come and go as nations persist, but gold holds the value through it's own usage, not the digital numbers we give it today.
---- And of course gold is not totally secure: The price does fluctuate, the lock on the treasure chest can be shot off, and let's not forget that one of the great inflation's in history happened in gold and silver, after the Conquistadors. In fact, at the prices you are foreseeing, gold would be not only a low return, risky investment, but a risky, unstable money, susceptible to a near total crash -- see my post yesterday. So the wealth will go (mostly) into more productive uses than gold. This is a case where as soon as you are proven right you have to change your strategy. ------
As Another said, we only limit our view by choice as our feet place us on the mountain. Consider your alternatives during the time and space these events unfolded. In context, gold would have been the choice of most every actor in the play of history. We do not look for a return that is created by accepting risk, rather gold becomes wealth of "least risk" in a world gone mad. In every war weapons must be used. I look through the pages of time and order the timeless one, gold.
-------I won't deny that there are cultural influences at work here. If you live (or your ancestors, whose ways you follow, lived) in a country where invasions, political upheavals and injustices, pogroms, and similar unpleasantnesses must be expected, factories are too easily burned or confiscated, and you will prefer concentrated, universally saleable gold, which you can run with.---
Truly, a testimony of the time of the US civil war! Perhaps a time of confusion to be revisited, yet without war?
---If your society conceives of wealth as primarily something to display to show everyone (including yourself) how rich you are, gold will serve admirably. If, furthermore, commercial activity in general is felt to be less than honorable and "money-grubbing" is disdained in favor of status-grubbing, if interest in particular is considered sinful (even if evasions are routine), then the
daydream of heaping up illimitable gold will be a lot more popular than in a more Modern (and especially American) society.------
Your description of the USA today, no doubt. I have seen your country use it'd dollar currency in this very same fashion. All the while grinding the average citizen into a more lower position. Mostly they wear their gold in the form of a house too large and a car too expensive. All the while
forsaking the debts they build and can never repay.
-----But even Victor XXI had to spend his gold on paying his soldiers, without whom he wouldn't have kept it long, and had to borrow more. And a society like that, or a person like that, will be, in the long run, comparatively poor and unable to afford much gold.----------
My friend, life goes on with or without us. We will live out time in a manner that fate prescribes. Truly I have seen my destiny down this trail we walk. And travel it we shall, as a group or alone.
On the road to $30,000,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,thank you so much for your most excellent works FOA
phaedrus
(10/15/99; 14:46:19MDT - Msg ID:16478)
Monday: Day of Reckoning for Ashanti Goldfields?
Note: Ashanti Goldfields has had a stay of execution as the lender banks have given it a grace period to get its books in order regarding its hundreds of millions of dollars in margin calls.
On Monday, the agreed suspension of Ashanti's margin calls ENDS. At that point we see whether Ashanti rolls, or covers, or gets bailed out, or is just totally screwed, or what.
Man...add stocks into the mix, and monday is looking like it's gonna be a BIIG day.
TownCrier
(10/15/99; 14:27:38MDT - Msg ID:16477)
ATTENTION to all would-be new Forum registrants...
I have been asked by MK in the Castle (Cnetennial Precious Metals) to please pass along this suggestion, advice, recommendation...call it what you like.
Anyone wishing to register for posting privileges must do so prior to 4:00 p.m. MDT (that is the time kept by the clock at this Round Table.) The reason is simple...the weekend is upon us, and no one will be at the office past 4:00 today to process your request and issue your password.
Sure, you can still register after 4:00...but you won't get your password (or be able to participate in this latest contest of marksmanship, with silver to all first-time posters offering their thoughts on gold) until business resumes on Monday when those bright and smiling faces return to the Castle to serve your golden needs.
TownCrier's bottom line: Register now. Just click the Register to Post link at the top of these messages.
el St.One
(10/15/99; 14:27:27MDT - Msg ID:16476)
FOA
Thanks for the bit about China widening the Gold trading hours. Do you think this will prompt the Comex to stay open longer. I have questioned why the Comex maintained short hours, compared to other major exchanges.
Sidney Open 8 hrs 6:00 PM to 2:00 AM NY time.
Hong Kong Open 8.5 hrs 9:00 PM to 5:30 AM NY time.
London Open 9 hrs 3:00 AM to 12 noon NY time.
New York Open 6.17 hrs 8:20 AM to 2:30 PM NY time.
Gap 3.5 hrs 2:30 PM to 6:00 PM NY time.
I guess when the paper market goes up in smoke, or should that be down in flames, the physical market will be open long hours at the local corner Gold Exchange.
The possibility of a 24 hour internet site for smaller bars would fill a a big gap for the small player, if they can narrow the bid ask (buy sell).
Thanks again for being here. el
ORO
(10/15/99; 14:24:07MDT - Msg ID:16475)
Yellin' of Troy
Lots to go over.
Hopefuly through this weekend or with my friends Assam and Darjeeling, perhaps tonight.
Thank you and Aragorn III for putting in the time and effort under your respective thinking caps.
If possible, please look at the supply issue and the reality (for most all PMs) of the real cost of new supply dragging just a few years behind the purchasing power of the metal product.
RossL
(10/15/99; 14:13:04MDT - Msg ID:16474)
GC9Z Contest
>>>----------$349.60 ------>>>
A limerick:
There once were some wheeler-dealers named Shorts
They borrowed and sold metals of all sorts
But then came the day
The market flew away
And Shorts begged for lenders of last resorts
ORO
(10/15/99; 13:48:51MDT - Msg ID:16473)
@FOA - New Markets of Physical
FOA,
Thanks again for the update.
The point may be that Loco London, NY, Zurich, HK, Bombay, Dubai may be opening in all these locations with Euro, SF, Yen, Yuan, Rupee, Dinar "shortcuts" around the $ pricing, location of delivery, and most important of all, BB control and opacity of the London market.
It definitely is a gesture of mistrust of the LBMA on China's part. Do you think this has BIS support?
AEL
(10/15/99; 13:27:51MDT - Msg ID:16472)
change of strategy
Yellin' of troy (10/15/99; 13:03:53MDT - Msg ID:16465):
"This is a case where as soon as you are proven right you have to change your strategy." ..... is this not always the case? The alternative is decay.
Hipplebeck
(10/15/99; 13:25:01MDT - Msg ID:16471)
yellin of troy
I like you
Michael
nugget101
(10/15/99; 13:17:04MDT - Msg ID:16470)
>>>---------- 332.10 ------ >>
I'm a newbie at all this but I feel that gold will fall in November and rise again by mid December. I base this on the selling of stocks before Dec and the desire of the powerguys to prop up the market inorder to get out. I still think that we may see one more sell-off of gold to knock the price down.
Farfel
(10/15/99; 13:14:37MDT - Msg ID:16469)
Final Caveat: Gold is still in a precarious position.
I still think, however, that gold retains great deflationary crash risk.
A price below 200 in such circumstances, either prior to or after a financial markets problem, is still a real possibility and I see nothing yet categorically preventing such a problem in the gold market.
However, if the producers are in fact finally forming a gold cartel, it's a helluva good preventive measure (inocculation?) against any big problems that could occur in the gold market before or after a crash.
Thanks
F*
Golden Truth
(10/15/99; 13:13:39MDT - Msg ID:16468)
DOW IS IN A TIZZY!
Worst week for Dow since Oct 13/1989
Oh well thats how the cookie crumbles.
Go GOLD Go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hey stranger! and aristotle! where are you gentlemen??
Farfel
(10/15/99; 13:09:01MDT - Msg ID:16467)
Answer to Question From ANOTHER Gold Forum
A rumor is no more than a rumor, and there are a ton of them in the gold market.
But I do know one thing and I've always speculated and written about it on ANOTHER forum over the past few years.
I think trading gold is all wonderful and good, but gold traders remain under the mistaken "delusion" that they can catch any and all upmoves in the metal.
But just as goldbugs continuously have found themselves trapped in huge downswings these past few years, then I expect that there will be many goldbugs shut out of the next big gold price upswing.
Why?
Simply because I expect that if and when truly bullish news occurs in the gold market, it will be released during a weekend. That would probably reduce the risks of insider trading activity and charges agains those profiting from it.
What that means is that you could open the gold market on a Monday with so much BUY pressure that the market shuts down for an hour or so, then re-opens with a new equilibrium price radically higher and never comes back down significantly again from that level.
Thanks
F*
Golden Truth
(10/15/99; 13:08:14MDT - Msg ID:16466)
DOW JUST FELL BELOW 10,000
They wore their dow 10,000 hats on the floor of the trading floor as it happened, but this time they booed on the way down below 10,000.
Clinton should of signed the "blue book"
Yellin' of troy
(10/15/99; 13:03:53MDT - Msg ID:16465)
FOA -- the demand for gold is not insatiable
What you are missing is the distinction between wealth and money. Maybe you could never be too rich, but you can easily have too much money -- even if you're not a publicly traded corporation trying not to attract a hostile takeover --, and you cannot easily acquire more money than you have wealth if all you will do with it is gloat.
If someone offered you a ton of gold, but only on condition that you (and your heirs) can never spend it, on pain of a torturous death, would you take it? Of course not. The yellow metal would be a white elephant, merely taking up space, wrecking your floors, and enticing criminals. You want it only because you can easily trade it for nearly anything else you want. And while there is certainly considerable benefit and joy in knowing that you *could* do something, isn't the value of having gold to spend much reduced if you not only never actually spend any of it but are bound and determined that you never will? Have you sold everything you own, turned it into gold, abandoned your family, and taken to living in the gutter with your bag of gold hidden in your underpants? If not, there are things you prefer to their price in gold. And I don't imagine your present holdings of non-gold assets are unimprovable; wouldn't you buy more if you were richer? Whatever your level of wealth, you only want some of it in gold. And even if you are an incredible miser who only wants to caress his gold, there's a limit to how much you can afford. You're not infinitely rich, and you can't get richer by forgoing your dinner and deodorant for gold, and your fairy godmother will not bring you free gold every day.
All that was only the first course. Indeed, if the only things you could buy with your gold (or other money) were consumer items, you mightn't be so far wrong, psychologically at least, since as you got very rich and the pleasures of consumption ran into diminishing returns, you would hold more and more of your latest gains in money. But the catch would be, What gains? For such a world would be very poor. The key point, and the fact responsible for the wealth of the modern world, is that you can expend your money on *investments*. You can use some of your gold to build a widget factory, or buy one, or if you don't understand widgets you can be a passive shareholder or a lender in an outfit run by somebody who does, or you can lend to a banker who knows how to find and oversee such people and will spread the risk. Or you (or the banker) can lend to someone who wants to anticipate his income, for example to acquire a house, and is willing to pay for the privilege. However you do it, you can expect to get back, eventually, more money -- more gold, if that's money or if you insist -- than you started with. The whole thrust of your argument was that there is no limit to how much money you dream of, you want as much as possible. But then, if you have a huge stash of gold, more than you have any intention of spending, more than you could ever suddenly need to spend, why not apply some of it to getting more? If you would never refuse a free gift of gold, why refuse an offer of interest on gold sitting idle in your vault, for which you have no other present use (and derive no other benefit) anyway? The sensible thing to do is to keep on hand only as much money as you might actually need or want to spend (before the investments pay off) -- this is your demand for money, and it is finite and indeed rather limited -- and direct the rest to where it will be most useful, most productive, most profitable. And the people you let have it aren't going to put it all in their vaults and just revel in its glitter -- how would they be able to pay you your interest? They need your money for expenses: They can't sell any widgets until well after they have paid a lot of suppliers, secretaries, and salesmen a lot of money. They do need to keep some cash on hand, but only some; their monetary needs are limited just like yours, except that they are trying to reduce outgoing interest payments instead of increase incoming. The secretaries don't put all their wages in the piggy bank, either; they spend most of it. No one's pile of yellow is a black hole; each economic actor has only some limited target for cash on hand, and the sum of all these is some definite aggregate demand for money, not a bottomless pit.
Of course, if gold is grossly underpriced, it can be a very fine investment itself. If you believe others will soon come to understand its merits and correct its price upwards, then you can increase your buying power, your wealth, for the future by merely buying and (for a while) holding gold. In some circumstances this could be both safer and more profitable than that uncertain widget business. But this is a disequilibrium, a temporary condition, and the whole (expected) gain is in the correction. You can't perennially suppose that gold is on the verge of an upward surge that somehow never happens; such expectations would be irrational and you wouldn't make any profits. (If you believe that gold is just intrinsically always "underpriced" in the sense that the price will just keep soaring up and up forever, then I know a mutual fund in Brooklyn you might like to buy. It's ideas like that that produce bubbles, like the current stock market. People buy stocks -- or gold -- in the belief that their prices only shoot up, and as more and more people come to believe this and buy in, the price really does go up. But it's a Ponzi scheme: The gains come from new inflows, not real wealth. In the end, the supply of suckers gives out, and the bubble bursts.) Once the POG is about right, and cannot be expected to rise much further (except maybe slowly, if economic growth produces larger increments in demand than supply), you have to trade off the greater expected return in widgets against the greater security of gold. And of course gold is not totally secure: The price does fluctuate, the lock on the treasure chest can be shot off, and let's not forget that one of the great inflations in history happened in gold and silver, after the Conquistadors. In fact, at the prices you are foreseeing, gold would be not only a low-return, risky investment, but a risky, unstable money, susceptible to a near-total crash -- see my post yesterday. So the wealth will go (mostly) into more productive uses than gold. This is a case where as soon as you are proven right you have to change your strategy. It is only because gold has been manipulated by the Big Boys for so long that it has been "due to rise" for so long, has been a reasonable acquisition both as near-money and as investment. If for a long while you have been able to use the same gold for both purposes without any need to distinguish between them, you might lose sight of the distinction. But that's like forgetting the difference between a dinner plate and a floor because your maid keeps the floor clean enough to eat on.
I won't deny that there are cultural influences at work here. If you live (or your ancestors, whose ways you follow, lived) in a country where invasions, political upheavals and injustices, pogroms, and similar unpleasantnesses must be expected, factories are too easily burned or confiscated, and you will prefer concentrated, universally saleable gold, which you can run with. If your society conceives of wealth as primarily something to display to show everyone (including yourself) how rich you are, gold will serve admirably. If, furthermore, commercial activity in general is felt to be less than honorable and "money-grubbing" is disdained in favor of status-grubbing, if interest in particular is considered sinful (even if evasions are routine), then the daydream of heaping up illimitable gold will be a lot more popular than in a more Modern (and especially American) society. But even Victor XXI had to spend his gold on paying his soldiers, without whom he wouldn't have kept it long, and had to borrow more. And a society like that, or a person like that, will be, in the long run, comparatively poor and unable to afford much gold.
The Invisible Hand
(10/15/99; 12:55:04MDT - Msg ID:16464)
Dorf
Gandalf,
"Dorf" means "village" in German.
Gandalf the White
(10/15/99; 12:49:49MDT - Msg ID:16463)
another story --
Years ago my son purchased a old FORD pickumup. It was firengine red workhorse and ran well. It had the word F-O-R-D in metal letters on the upper grill. -- Remember those? -- One of the first things he did was remove two letters and switch them to make his pickumup a "DORF" !!! --
He had lots of comments on the unique make of his truck and I have always smiled at the word "Dorf". -- The word does not show in the WEBSTER'S dictionary that we have, but it seems that most know what it means. -- OK, enough background !!! --- Today I see on my limited surfing the following tout for DIPPING NOW !! WHAT A CON !! and look who is touting it.
========
From Bloomberg.com
" Tax-Related Selling May Spawn Bargains"
By John Dorfman
(John Dorfman is president of Dorfman Investments in Boston. His opinions don't necessarily reflect those of Bloomberg News. His firm or its clients may own or trade investments discussed in this column.)
Natives of the stock-market kingdom are currently engaged in one of their seasonal rituals. It's called year-end tax-loss selling. People heave the losers out of their portfolios in order to record losses that offset gains on their 1999 tax returns. The effect is to push depressed stocks further into the mire.
Tax-loss selling used to be a November and December phenomenon. It has drifted earlier in the year, partly because many mutual funds conclude their fiscal years earlier. So, we're in the thick of tax-related selling season right now. As a result, many shares that lost ground in the first nine months of the year are under further pressure. Such stocks traditionally rebound in January. In recent years, the rebound has often come in December. In the next week or two, your broker or your favorite financial publication may send you a list of stocks that are depressed by tax-loss selling, and are worth consideration as buys.
---
<;-)
FOA
(10/15/99; 12:41:10MDT - Msg ID:16462)
HONG KONG'S GOLD/SILVER EXCH CONSIDERS TRADING LOCO-LONDON GOLD
http://www.crbindex.com/news/story2203.html
ALL: I China making a play to become the world physical gold trading capital? If yes, it's in their best interest to keep our present markets fluid. There is more to this news than meets the eye.
HONG KONG'S GOLD/SILVER EXCH CONSIDERS TRADING LOCO-LONDON GOLD
Hong Kong--Oct 15--The Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society, the physical gold market in Hong Kong, is considering adding the trading of US dollar-denominated Loco-London gold to its existing Hong Kong dollar denominated tael-gold trading, the exchange's president Raymond Chan told Bridge News today. He said the exchange's members held a meeting Wednesday to discuss the
possibility and they will come to a decision on the matter by the end of 1999. (Story .12569)
HONG KONG FIRM TO LAUNCH 24-HR INTERNET GOLD TRADING IN JAN-MAR
Hong Kong--Oct 15--Hong Kong-listed precious metals producing and trading firm Tem Fat Hing Fung (Holdings) Ltd. plans to launch in the Jan-Mar 2000 quarter an Internet website that investors can use to trade gold around the
clock, the company's chairman Raymond Chan told Bridge News today. Besides US dollar-denominated Loco-London gold, the planned website would allow global investors to trade Hong Kong dollar-denominated tael-gold and Chinese
yuan-denominated gram-gold, Chan said. (Story .10418)
The Invisible Hand
(10/15/99; 12:37:54MDT - Msg ID:16461)
Alan Greenspan speaking
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/991015/r0.html
Friday October 15, 2:12 pm Eastern Time
Greenspan speech delayed to 1300
EDT/1700 GMT
WASHINGTON, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's remarks to the National Italian American Foundation will be made at 1 p.m. EDT (1700 GMT) on Friday, an hour later than previously scheduled, the Fed said.
A schedule issued by the Fed earlier had listed the event occurring at noon EDT. The Fed chairman is to speak to the group following a luncheon sponsored by the Italian-American congressional delegation in the U.S. Capitol.
What is he saying? "Your time is up?" like John Galt (not our Knight, but the other) spoke.
The Invisible Hand
(10/15/99; 12:26:24MDT - Msg ID:16460)
Is AG publicly speaking at the moment?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/991015/ri.html
This is the title of an empty Yahoo message
<Friday October 15, 1:49 pm Eastern Time
<Wall Street down, holds steady as Greenspan speaks
Where is Greenspan speaking and to whom?
Farfel
(10/15/99; 11:53:27MDT - Msg ID:16459)
STEVE H, a Gold Producers' Cartel Probably Coming.
I'll place a wager on a Sunday announcement out of England. But caveat emptor...I've been wrong about these rumors in the past!
An international gold producers cartel is actually an impossibility since the Clayton-Sherman antitrust act prevents the formation of cartels in the United States. Canada also has laws against formation of cartels.
However, cartels are allowed in most other foreign countries and so that's why the Arabs were able to stitch together OPEC.
If you ask me, the Gold Field Ltd. announcement today smells like a preview of something even bigger coming up around the bend.
What the world gold producers should do is ensure they all are incorporated in offshore offices and side-step US and Canadian antitrust laws by forming a cartel based in...oh, maybe the Cayman Islands or South Africa or wherever.
If international gold producers create a cartel and co-ordinate policies...if the US gold producers can form a de facto cartel (since an explicit cartel is not allowed)... then they will no longer be at the mercy of bullion banks whispering nonsense rumors in their ears.
There is little doubt in my mind that most of the hedging done at gold prices around 260 would never have occurred if gold producers had a cartel-like association. As long as they are splintered from each other, divided from each other by the bullion banks, then the bullion banks will rule the roost because guess what....the bullion banks have their own UNOFFICIAL cartel.
You'd be a naive moron to think otherwise.
Thanks
F*
MidEastGold
(10/15/99; 11:37:45MDT - Msg ID:16458)
COMEX >>>>>=====329.25=====>
Gold...an absolute in a world that seldom accepts absolutes. Gold...security in an economic system that seeks to destroy financial security with debt,inflation and central banks.
Gold...a way to feed my family when it all comes down.
Gold...may every decent and wise one hold enough for him and his!
JCTex
(10/15/99; 11:35:14MDT - Msg ID:16457)
canamami: I'm too disgusted to think.
Would "furious" be a somewhat better description?
NORTH OF 49
(10/15/99; 11:24:33MDT - Msg ID:16456)
Contest Entry
>>>>>=====327.50=====>
Perhaps the most entertaining (next to the current breakout itself) aspect of my association with gold has been the reaction of various people upon introduction of them to the metal itself. So far as I can determine, myself and my Banker neighbour are the only ones that have a clue as to what's going on in the industry. He acquired his quite by accident while on an auditing assignment in Haiti about the time Clint Eastwood and that artillary guy with the Sprint card showed up. In a hurry to unload what local currancy he had on hand, he converted it all into Kugerrands and skedaddled! He certainly hasn't regretted that move.
As for myself, I have had some very amusing reactions from some people to exposure to a Maple Leaf. Some were:
"Is it real---I mean, I know it's real, but is it real money?"
"Sure seems heavy--are you sure it's gold?"
"Fifty bucks!! (face value) Seems like a good deal"
--and my favourite--
"Last time I saw one of these, it had a chocolate center!!"
No49
JCTex
(10/15/99; 11:16:10MDT - Msg ID:16455)
canamami Gold only up 50c
Subj: BULLETIN !!! MIDAS BULLETIN !!!
Date: 10/15/1999 10:19:18 AM Central Daylight Time
From: LePatron@LeMetropoleCafe.com
Le Metropole members,
Sources tell the Café that there were BUY imbalances
on the major Dow stocks on the opening of the stock
market today. We strongly believe the Plunge Protection
team headed by the New York Fed's Peter Fisher is at
work supporting the stock market. It is our opinion
that they know the market is going down, but they
want it to do so in orderly manner.
They are probably doing the same with the gold market
(stopping it from going up). All they are doing is trying
to buy some time. This is good for gold bulls. Time to
buy cheap gold and cheap junior and baby gold stocks.
GATA Treasurer, John Meyer, sent me the following
from the well informed www.kitco.com website. This
post makes a lot of sense and explains why the gold
market has not taken off after such incredibly
bullish PPI figures. On that line, well informed
Café sources say we have another bombshell coming
soon that has to do with an upward revision in
the employment cost numbers.
Date: Fri Oct 15 1999 07:19
SteveIS (Greenspan is working with Europeans) ID#297380:
Copyright © 1999 SteveIS/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The Europeans want the US stock market down. They
are pissed that Greeny hasn't had the Cojones to
pop the bubble much earlier. When they made their
gold announcement it was aimed at the US bubble markets.
Greeny went to them after the gold explosion and said
help drive down gold so some of my boys can cover. So
they said only if you start to pop the stock bubble.
The timing of Greenie's annoucement is astounding.
This morning is settlements for October S&P options.
The pros are the ones short all the puts which
suddenly are in the money. Greenie is telling the
pros to back off. The PPT isn't going to help them
anymore.
The stock market is going to get real ugly real fast.
They may step in to slow the fall a little but not
to much.
The gold bull is just begining. Don't get shaken
out by little squiggles.
We aren't in Kansas anymore.
namaste'
More on this over the weekend.
More Tiger Talk: another source from within the Hedge
Fund Mafia has told the Café that Tiger is shutting
down the end of the month. All I can say is that is
what we are being told.
Report from the Comex gold pits: Goldman Sachs is
offering 100 lots and attracting selling. Then,
they go upstairs and put buy orders in on the
OTC market.
As reported to you previously in the Café and
now confirmed. This just out from Reuters:
GOLD FIELDS SAYS BUYS BACK BULK OF GOLD HEDGE
POSITION, SEES GOLD PRICE UP
"Having looked at all the fundamentals of the
current gold market…It seems inevitable to us
that higher, IF NOT MUCH HIGHER, gold prices
are available," said Gold Fields chairman Chris
Thompson.
BARRICK- get with the program. I suggest that all
Barrick shareholders inform Barrick's CFO of
Chris Thompson's remarks. Time to put some heat
on him.
Le Metropole Café
All the best,
Bill Murphy
Le Patron
http://www.LeMetropoleCafe.com
canamami
(10/15/99; 11:12:18MDT - Msg ID:16454)
Gold Up Only $0.50 !!!???- Today !!!!
What gives??!!
I'm too disgusted to think.
scp
(10/15/99; 11:07:09MDT - Msg ID:16453)
Inflation and Greenspan
Geoffrey Moore is head of the Economic Cycle Research
Institute.
http://www.businesscycle.com/index.html
Also, he is a confidant of Greenspan, someone
whom Greenspan consults. Moore has his own way of tracking
potential inflation and in the October letter states that
inflation is on the rise and that September shows the
largest rise in two years.
http://www.businesscycle.com/Services/archives_.html
What Moore says to Greenspan is more important than any
government stat.
Richard, Oregon
(10/15/99; 10:53:35MDT - Msg ID:16452)
Contest Entry
>>>-----$330.00----->> This table of round has been a blessing to a squire such as my self. For at this table sits 'Wisdom' and she offers herself freely to all who humble themselves and just . . . . listen. "But with humility comes wisdom". Hereto before, this wisdom has been "beyond my reach". 'I feast at the table of wisdom' so that I may 'walk in the footsteps of giants'. The sincere desire for wisdom has led me to gold and this forum.
ORO
(10/15/99; 10:25:15MDT - Msg ID:16451)
TC, and TC
Thanks for the info.
Will indeed come to MK when this small source is depleted.
Bought some at your quoted sell premium. Wanted to have a check on it before I bought the rest. Guy's OK. Coins look in better shape than my new eagles. Maybe our mint needs to upgrade its equipment to 1905 standards.
phaedrus
(10/15/99; 10:23:14MDT - Msg ID:16450)
gold prediction
>>>>--------$362.50------+>
I think we could be setting up for another black monday in the stock market here. Also, I think yesterday's nasty drop in silver might be explained by the fact that the Oct. 5 commitment of trader reports showed that the big funds were heavily long silver (perhaps as an offset to their gold shorts). As many of these funds are probably also long the stock market/bonds, they very well may have closed their long silver positions in a panic to cover mounting losses in stocks/bonds. If this is the case then the bullish scenario for the metals remains intact, and the action we are seeing only increases the pressure on gold shorts. The funds are getting whipsawed in a big way here. And that's no bad thing.
TownCrier
(10/15/99; 10:21:09MDT - Msg ID:16449)
UK stocks outlook - Shades of Black Monday
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/991015/n2.html
As the 12th anniversary approaches to the 1987 crash October 19 (where the FTSE lost 25% in two days), the world markets are having a bit of deja vu...a weakening dollar, strong oil prices and overvalued stocks.
TownCrier
(10/15/99; 10:15:56MDT - Msg ID:16448)
Dollar Plunges Against Euro
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=blk&s=f831132264bb8fc3c351fe5a7f86fec0
Euro climbs to its highest level since March--$1.0912; dollar drops below 106 yen.
TownCrier
(10/15/99; 10:01:11MDT - Msg ID:16447)
Monster PPI spooks markets, stokes inflation fears
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/991015/k0.html
Ethan Harris, an economist at Lehman Brothers Inc. said of the PPI report,"It's an unfriendly report. If you work hard enough, you can get it down to a reasonably benign number but you really have to do a lot of work. A lot of these things will probably reverse in the next months. But still, when you have to do that much work to make it look benign, the suspicion is the Fed may have to do something."
What a big fat shell game! Hide the inflation...
TownCrier
(10/15/99; 9:54:08MDT - Msg ID:16446)
Sir ORO...and rooster gold coins
That would be MK's specialty. Drop him an e-mail at
cpm@usagold.com
or give him a call...the toll free number is on one of these pages somewhere. Try the HomePage. It's been my experience that it isn't significantly greater than the premiums on the fractional bullion coins. I think the roosters are among the finest looking...a Tower favorite.
Tomcat
(10/15/99; 9:50:42MDT - Msg ID:16445)
ORO, French Roosters
http://www.scpm.com/bullion.html
Buy: 5%. Sell: 11% in quantities over 100 (18.67 ounces). See the link for percents on other coins as well.
Be careful if you are going to buy BU. They might not be BU. Suggest to you speak to MK. He will clue you in how to buy these the best way. If I can't see the coins before I buy then I buy from MK. He not only provides this forum; he has great prices. His low overhead allows him to compete!
BTW, most of my Roosters and Angels are pre 1900; no extra premium for these numismatic gems and who could ever doubt the fact that are truely part of antiquity.
ORO
(10/15/99; 9:12:06MDT - Msg ID:16444)
TC, anyone who knows
What is the appropriate premium (in $ or %) over gold content for generic BU Roosters?
TownCrier
(10/15/99; 9:00:37MDT - Msg ID:16443)
Hear ye! Hear ye! A call to contest! *>>>>------A REMINDER--------+>
The master of the Castle, our gracious host at Centennial Precious Metals, has made it known that he will yield up gold and silver prizes--for it would please him to see the Knights, Squires, Ladies, and honest Townsmen at play upon the green fields under these golden leaves of Autumn.
Good People of the land, hear ye, and may you walk away heavier with riches than upon your arrival. Your participation, comradery, and good times is all we seek...so please step to the field of play when you have prepared yourself for the simple task at hand. To wit, one arrow each, and your best effort to strike nearest the mark.
THE RULES:
So draw forth your truest arrow, toe the line, take aim, and let fly your best prediction for the closing COMEX December gold futures contract price (as quoted that day by TownCrier) for next Friday, October 22, 1999.
All arrows (predictions) must be leap from the bow and be in flight no later than this Sunday, October 17 at midnight according to the clock kept at this Round Table.
All entries into the contest must use standard arrows in the subject line as demonstrated here, or a reasonable replica:
*>>>>------$500.00--------+>
Contestants must ALSO provide a brief oratory (at least 30 words) upon release of their arrow explaining either the method of their aim, or a pleasing tale explaining what role gold or this Forum has played in their lives. These won't be judged, but we must hear your voice as you take aim at your target.
THE PRIZES:
To the arrow nearest the mark: One beautiful French 20 franc gold coin, bearing the likeness of lovely Liberty and a bold Rooster to usher in the dawn of a new era.
To the next two nearest arrows: One silver Eagle, each.
To all first time posters throughout the duration of this contest: by simply gracing us with your voice on any gold related subject, you will receive One silver Eagle, each. But you must also e-mail the Castle (Centennial Precious Metals / USAGOLD) at cpm@usagold.com to let us know that you are a first-time poster. We will confirm the record, and the precious metal will be yours for sharing your time and interest in this most important of monetary subjects.
LET THE GAMES BEGIN!
USAGOLD
(10/15/99; 8:49:36MDT - Msg ID:16442)
Today's Gold Market Report: Inflation Report Hammers Dollar, Equities; Gold Higher
MARKET REPORT(10/15/99): Day Fifteen of the Big Breakout....Gold up
$3 in the early going....DJIA down 185 on inflation,interest rate
fears....Dollar getting hammered across the boards but down big time
against the yen......Two big reasons cited for all this is the PPI
coming in up 1.1% for September -- the largest increase in nine
years.........Gold Fields chairman,Chris Thompson, announces that the
South African company bought back all its hedges recently because it
believes gold prices are going higher. Thompson cites the crisis at
Ashanti as a motivating factor: "...it seems inevitable to us that
higher, if not much higher, gold prices are possible. Accordingly it
seemed prudent to retrieve our hedge positions......The market is
staggered from a blow delivered by Alan Greenspan at a meeting of
bankers yesterday. He told them to gear up for a stock market correction
by liquefying the banking system to "cover losses." That's it for
today." Stock promoters were lamenting that he chose the Ocotober
framework to deliver this less than optimistic message..........Gold
finished down close to $8 in the New York market yesterday but quickly
recovered in the Asian and European markets -- a new pattern for the
gold market which has been led for years by New York trading.....
Describing the action in the overnight markets,Frederic Panizzutti, head
of strategy at Geneva-based metals refiner and trader MKS Finance says
in this morning morning's London Reuters: "Although the gold market has
a lot of gaps from the last move up, we believe that Thursday'ssharp
move was due to long liquidation in a very nervous and illiquid market.
We have not changed our bullish point of view and think buy on dips
should be on the cards again."..... Yesterday we said that there might
be fireworks associated with the PPI release. This could turn out to be
an important day for all the markets and the Plunge Protection
Team........ See you here Monday. Have a good weekend, my fellow
goldmeisters.
Please call 800-869-5115 (Ask for Mary Conway) if you have an
interest in receiving a trial subscription to our widely read
newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary and Analysis on
the Economy and Precious Metals. Or you can go to our ORDER FORM
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introductory packet on investing in gold.
CoinGuy
(10/15/99; 8:47:10MDT - Msg ID:16441)
Dow 10,000
I see the Dow Bulls, coming in to protect their bubble. Probably will have problems closing below 10K. What happened to the Dow-Theory sell signal at 10.4K...It's probably gone out the same window as P/E, trailing earnings, Div/Earnings ratio, you know, all the normal indicators of a healthy market. Just my humble opinion.
Coinguy
ORO
(10/15/99; 8:26:56MDT - Msg ID:16440)
Trader Vic
Saw your books at the store yesterday, impressive.
It is an honour to have you with us.
ORO
(10/15/99; 8:23:03MDT - Msg ID:16439)
Aragorn III Yellin' of Troy a preliminary interjection
I have not yet had the time to read the posts carefully, but there is a point to be addressed on the supply side that has not been addressed.
When a RESOURCE commodity money is used, within a few years all available natural sources accessible at a cost below the purchasing power of the moment are gone. Thus, we find the natural properties of PMs and their deposits the key to the use of PMs as commodity money. The ammount accessible increases with the purchasing power of the commodity money, but declines very much more steeply with its fall.
If a large store is dumped into the market, it would be used up and the mined supply, in the meantime, would stop completely. The real cost of producing the next new oz is still as it was. The real production cost in labor and other resources only goes up over long periods. On rare occasions, like the discovery of the California gold or the Rand discovery, or the Mexican silver finds, or the heap leach process that allowed the production of hitherto inaccessible deposits, there is a one time shift in availability of supply, which over time is absorbed into the markets. The long term real production cost of the PM commodity money is a one way ticket up.
That is why the PMs have managed to keep their function as long term stores of value. Contrary to most financial assets that face declining demand when price falls, gold sees demand rise tremendously.
Dishoardings by CBs are the best assurance of a high purchasing power in the future. Were the CBs to actually dishoard, they would create the necessary conditions for using gold as the money of the people (no danger of one massive holder dumping, and the bulk of the metal being freely traded offering liquidity that is not available when the major stocks are in a few big vaults), their currencies would be completely dumped and the concept money idea would not be again revisited for a long while.
The gold overhang in the vaults keeps liquidity low and the threat of dishoarding alive. This IS the power of the CBs.
As my favorite straw man, the Fed paper regarding the gold markets, puts forward, the CBs had managed to simmulate a dishoarding's effect on market price, while holding on to most of the metal. The result is that they put their main product in danger of extiction, and the banking system they regulate and support was put in grave danger of collapse. Thus, they have to face the results of a dishoarding as well.
Viper
(10/15/99; 8:16:38MDT - Msg ID:16438)
Coinguy
Ha-Ha! Yeah, I watched that too! At this point the Dow has climbed a bit to only -178. It should be interesting this afternoon when Greenspan speaks. Could we see under 10,000??? Hmmmm.
Happy Trades to you!
elevator guy
(10/15/99; 8:14:42MDT - Msg ID:16437)
Thanks for your thoughts, FOA
I wish I could stay home and watch the DOW tank, but you know its a sort of a twisted pleasure I derive from market meltdown. And anyway, I've still got this day job-
FOA
(10/15/99; 8:05:53MDT - Msg ID:16436)
(No Subject)
January platinum down $6+/- ! I brought some last night (along with gold) to save face with the forum neighbours. Goldspoon, I have a horse to sell you, cheap! (smile)
I will step away for a while.
FOA
(10/15/99; 7:56:53MDT - Msg ID:16435)
Gold Fields Limited Repurchases Its Hedges
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/991015/gold_field_1.html
Some companies just know how to attract Euro money! I also saw where South Arica signed a "free trade" pact with the EU. Euroland needs a good source of mineral wealth for growth!
--------Chris Thompson, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Gold Fields, said: ``Having looked at the fundamentals of the current gold market and the implications of the Ashanti situation, it seems inevitable to us that higher, if not much higher, gold prices are possible. Accordingly it seemed
prudent to retrieve our hedge positions.''--------
FOA
(10/15/99; 7:49:09MDT - Msg ID:16434)
Euro surges to near 7-month high
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/991015/iw.html
Gold bullion may come into short supply if the dollar fall forces players out of the dollar gold paper markets and inti the physical.
CoinGuy
(10/15/99; 7:34:14MDT - Msg ID:16433)
Hard Hats
I agree with Black Blade, if you're walking down Wall Street, watch for falling brokers...
Coinguy
Black Blade
(10/15/99; 7:24:20MDT - Msg ID:16432)
BLOODBATH on Wall Street....or watch out for swan-diving brokers
Can you say "Short the Market?" I knew you could.
FOA
(10/15/99; 7:22:14MDT - Msg ID:16431)
(No Subject)
ALL:
This big break in the US markets is going to force all parts of the carry trade to cover. If they don't, they will be "the walking dead" as their books will all go negative. Look for all the currencies to run against the dollar, big time, especially the most heavily used "carry", the yen. The run to safety will see the Euro first (as the dollar will be sold for position squaring), followed by gold. Physical gold being the most lopsided carry instrument, will be in major demand. Mostly physical because this crisis will immobilize most "bookkeeping" hedges. THis run should continue for some
weeks! We watch all these new forces together, yes!
CoinGuy
(10/15/99; 7:16:02MDT - Msg ID:16430)
(No Subject)
I sold out at 9200 July of 98, I think that is when the bear (trap) market started, anyway, that's another discussion. I'm warming up the lazy boy, this ought to be a real show...
Contrarian Coinguy
Quabbin
(10/15/99; 7:13:56MDT - Msg ID:16429)
Cyprus Amax Minerals Reaches Agreement to Sell Kinross Gold Stake
http://www.kitco.com/_a/news/2034.htm
Implications??
Black Blade
(10/15/99; 7:10:27MDT - Msg ID:16428)
DOW and NASDAQ to tank today!!!
Looks as if it's going to be Black Friday allright, as per last night's post. with s&p futures down -26.80, this should be a fun day indeed. I hope that PM prices don't rise too fast this morning, as I hope to accumulate a tiny bit more. When DOW tanks below 10000, then the bear psychology will be in full swing. Can't wait to listen to the talking heads today. Wonder what excuse they will come up with today?
CoBra(too)
(10/15/99; 7:07:46MDT - Msg ID:16427)
Markets awash in red!
AG's latest warnings on reversal of confidence, preceding the jolt in the PPI (up 1,1% core 0,8% - double street estimate) spells big trouble for equities. The slaughtering of the biggest Wall Street Bull in history is commencing. No economic cook(ing) books in Washington have any recipe's left to keep the roast tender.
Don't follow AG's advice to build up bonds nor cash as portfolio diversification- go insurance- GO GOLD - Best CB2
CoinGuy
(10/15/99; 7:05:46MDT - Msg ID:16426)
Holy Cow!!!
I'm wtching CNBC, Mark Haines is actually wearing a Red Cross battle helmet. Fair value is set a +3, that leaves the S&P futures neg almost 31...
Wow...
Coinguy
FOA
(10/15/99; 7:03:57MDT - Msg ID:16425)
(No Subject)
This is going to be something!! I hope this forum can stay open?
SteveH
(10/15/99; 7:03:38MDT - Msg ID:16424)
Dow down 221 already and it isn't even open yet!
www.mrci.com
Market Mth Open High Low Last Change Date Time Ask Bid
S & P 500(CME)(Globex) Dec 1290.00 1290.30 1258.00 1260.00 -30.00 10/15/99 5:50 1260.50 1260.10
S&P 500 Futures Premium -752 -142 -2542 -2342 -1610 10/15/99 5:50
S & P 500 E-Mini(CME) Dec 1277.25 1285.00 1258.50 1261.00 -16.50 10/15/99 5:50 1261.00 1260.50
NASDAQ 100(CME)(GLOBEX) Dec 2496.00 2496.40 2435.00 2439.00b -55.50 10/15/99 5:50 2440.00 2437.00
DJIA Index(CBOT) Dec 10345 10345 10110 10114 -221 10/15/99 5:50
Nikkei 225(CME) Dec 10/14/99 13:33
TownCrier
(10/15/99; 6:59:57MDT - Msg ID:16423)
U.S. September PPI Rose 1.1% in September, Largest Increase in Nine Years
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=blk&s=1bcba093d10694351c6d1d782abe6744
"Ground Control to Major Tom..."
Orbital!
That headline says it all. Analysts were expecting about 0.5%
SteveH
(10/15/99; 6:57:34MDT - Msg ID:16422)
Holy down market, batman!
www.mrci.com
Market Mth Open High Low Last Change Date Time Ask Bid
S & P 500(CME)(Globex) Dec 1290.00 1290.30 1262.00 1263.20 -26.80 10/15/99 5:40 1264.00 1263.80
S&P 500 Futures Premium -752 -142 -2132 -1942 -1210 10/15/99 5:40
S & P 500 E-Mini(CME) Dec 1277.25 1285.00 1262.00 1264.00 -13.50 10/15/99 5:40 1264.25 1264.00
NASDAQ 100(CME)(GLOBEX) Dec 2496.00 2496.40 2435.00 2440.00b -54.50 10/15/99 5:40 2444.90 2440.00
DJIA Index(CBOT) Dec 10345 10345 10140 10140 -195 10/15/99 5:40
TownCrier
(10/15/99; 6:53:31MDT - Msg ID:16421)
Y2K Is Bugging the Markets: What's bothering Wall Street these days? Everything it can find
http://www.pathfinder.com/time/daily/0,2960,32564-101991014,00.html
This is a short and sassy article that's fun to read. Check it out. TIME's senior economics reporter says, "What we're seeing the past few days is the latest phase of a long, slow correction that will probably continue until spring."
SteveH
(10/15/99; 6:47:09MDT - Msg ID:16420)
repost
www.gold-eagle.com
BLACK FRIDAY, 15TH OCTOBER 1999 (Part - III)
(McIsaac) Oct 15, 08:34
Just announced. PPI came in much much worse than anticipated: +1.1% - core +0.8%.
Immediatedly, the S&P freefell 23 points!!!
it's BLACK FRIDAY, 15TH OCTOBER 1999 !!!!!!
Watch gold!!!!
FOA
(10/15/99; 6:45:48MDT - Msg ID:16419)
comment
Trader_vic (10/14/99; 21:01:28MDT - Msg ID:16383)
My all time high for gold will exceed $10,000/oz on the final blowoff....
Hello Trader_vic,
Welcome! You sound like my kind of goldbug. As you know I don't trade and buy and hold only bullion. But, I do have close access to some very interesting simi-traders that, for lack of a better term, "trade the dealers". They see the Yen carry trade and the gold carry trade funds trying to cover today and the first of next week. This should stampede the other shorts into biding for whatever physical is out there. There is some talk that a "logjam" of sorts was broken yesterday. I think we will break "massively" to new highs, then pause for a while. This is the current assessment
because so far, the BBs have been able to contain a full blown run!
I'm offering these "ongoing" because I have the time right now. As we all know, free time doesn't last very long. These are my thoughts, your thinking?
FOA
Aragorn III
(10/15/99; 6:24:58MDT - Msg ID:16418)
Some thoughts for Yellin' of troy for this post(10/14/99; 15:06:48MDT - Msg ID:16355)
First, a sincere apology to ORO...I have not had sufficient time (yet!) to revisit the day of our recent dialogue to read what I am sure will prove to be more of your good words. So how may this same person now sit down to address the Table with "Hello! I must be going!"? You see, I was delivered a paper copy of this referenced post which was read while away, and only now might I stop by to offer an encouraging word.
Yellin' of troy:
thank you for providing the thorough outline of your view of the monetary system, particularly as it relates to value and stability. (As should be clear to all, without stability of the system, the value would suffer in consequence.) Your words are valuable because they express the thoughts that may be on a great many minds, yet too few find the means to express them as you have. Let this be a good day for critical thinking.
For my beginning, I shall start from your ending..."Next application in a day or few, when I get it written." Before you take further strides down this path, please accept in good spirit these comments offered from one not born yesterday. You may yet choose to retrace some steps and attempt a truer line. I saw your words as they were a man walking with a thick-soled shoe on only one foot, alternately shifting from right, to off-center, and back again... Your efforts at maintaining dispassionate objectivity are apparent, yet in the end your eyes remain clouded with dollars (or other national currencies). You wrote among your conclusion of central bankers as the necessary yet hopeless avenue for high value gold to be attained / maintained:
"They can all get together in a room and lean on each other. But unenforceable cartels are notoriously prone to cheating; think of OPEC. If every central bank is sitting on pile of gold that it could sell surreptitiously for five or ten times what it's "really worth," how long before one does?"
Cheat, and sell gold for what purpose?? To gain paper? If paper is what is wanted, they might easily borrow their own, printing it into existence. They could then use this to buy other paper they might prefer. Think about this. Instead of your "Iterated Prisoners' Dilemma with 10,000 trials" you have instead a small lifeboat with the small handful of "perfect logicians" that DO unravel this from finish to front--these logicians being the central bankers.
The final demonstration that your search for a true view became clouded with dollars is found here:
"Monetary confidence comes with actual practice and experience and custom; it's much easier to think of something as money if "we've always done it that way." Hence, other things being equal, it's much easier to *keep* something money than to *make* it money, to introduce it successfully as a new money. So if, as I have argued, gold at those high prices would be such lousy money from the start that it would crash, then it will simply not become money in the first place."
Again, I offer this helping hand from one not born yesterday. Anyone with an open eye past yesterday would see in this argument that you have miscast the roles in your currency play. The paper chicken was hatched from the golden egg. What you say is true, but it applies to the gold of history, not to the paper of today. It is this paper money new on the scene that is nearly lousy from the start...if you do take the longer view.
Seeing that these concluding remarks bore the heavy taint of dollars, we must now turn to your beginning to follow the progression of logic with wariness for this troublesome predilection. In your example for the usage of "concept money" you deal with the incremental changes in confidence for a chain of "n" users. This is fine, but as you demonstrate that uncertainty regarding the future use diminishes the demand, you say:
"My demand for money diminishes but does not vanish. And the same goes for #n, and in the aggregate; in fact, if the money has an issuer or other central authority who can reduce the supply as appropriate -- more likely for concept money than a physical commodity --, the price of a unit of money need not even change, and this price stability can itself bolster confidence."
My friend, in your experience, is this not a fatal flaw? The need for a regulating authority is cause for alarm with the perfection of the system, and further...to REDUCE the supply? Again, in your experience, do we not see instead the steady increase in supply of such concept currencies? Should the business cycle lead to a natural reduction, the pain felt is such that the money makers are put on 24-hour duty. With the lending of this money at interest (as is the real world practice), the concept of a willful reduction in supply takes this example nowhere that we want to travel. We shall move on to your key point:
"There are a couple of classic ways to keep the system in the stable region. Laws requiring payment of taxes in a particular kind of money or making it legal tender for debt and other contracts assure everyone that there will always be at least a limited, specialized demand for the money, which reduces the risk of loss from getting stuck with it when the music stops. But the main tactic I want to discuss is "commodity money": using as money something that has considerable value as non-money, for "real" use. This assures everyone that even if the money ceases to be money, you won't lose all, since you could still use it yourself or sell it to someone for physical use. So long as the nonmonetary value is high enough (net of expected transaction costs in the sale of no-longer-money) that the loss from getting stuck with it if it ceases to be money is obviously less than the loss from abandoning the money (and perhaps the money economy) now, there is no reason to do so, and the money is stable. The key point to note here is that it isn't good enough for the money to have merely *some* commodity value, it needs to have *enough*. What matters is the ratio between monetary and nonmonetary value. If demonetization would cost holders only a small fraction of the wealth they were holding in the money, the system will almost surely be stable (unless better money is at hand), but if the ratio is high enough that the demonetizing hot potato would lose a very large fraction of its value, that's not so different from losing it all, the alternative of dump-now may be attractive, and the system may tip. "Commodity money" whose monetary value is too high is, in the relevant way, hardly different from pure concept money."
I wanted to present that excellent bit of thinking (though flawed) to provide the full context, but I call special attention to several points. First, as stated in the beginning, "stability" is truly the key of any successful monetary system. Next is your thoughts on "'commodity money': using as money something that has considerable value as non-money, for "real" use."
The term "considerable value as non-money" is the subtle but dangerous trap you fall into here, for any imaginable levels of "considerable non-monetary value" will be dwarfed by the monetary values. In an advanced and efficient society, the monetary use BECOMES its dominant "commodity use." That is to say, no matter what function it might otherwise play in the life of man, its use as a monetary commodity will become its most valued function within an advanced society. A society can only be as good as its money. Let us turn our eyes to gold. Sure, gold could always be fashioned into teeth and rings, but the higher value is found in its utility as money...used as a regulator, an honest standard against being cheated by the unknown future. So when you say in the passage above: "The key point to note here is that it isn't good enough for the money to have merely *some* commodity value, it needs to have *enough*" I hope you will now realize that this is impossible. Assuming we have not dipped into the theatre of the absurd (where the commodity would not be considered for currency to begin with...such as tar; good for rooftops, bad for pockets) such a **qualified** currency-type commodity would find its use as a monetary commodity to eclipse by great degrees its value for other uses. This, then, defines its new value. There is nothing "artificial" as you later imply. To conclude that text above, you say:
""Commodity money" whose monetary value is too high is, in the relevant way, hardly different from pure concept money."
I agree! Insofar as the value of anything is a concept. But there is no "too high" that market forces wouldn't quickly bring into proper adjustment. Where your comment is in greivous error, though, is that a "commodity money" provides for the "impartial regulating function" that I mentioned earlier. Your fiat (concept) money requires the interventions of a regulating authority...a source of uncertainty, to be sure!
You say:
"Perhaps I have been speaking too loosely of non/monetary values. Of course, at any one time, the price and marginal value for commodity use and for use as money must be about the same, otherwise stocks would shift from one use to the other."
NO to this! Discussed above.
Shortly thereafter you say:
"Conversely, if money is demonetized, if the monetary demand vanishes, the price will drop, and this reduced price is what I have been referring to as the nonmonetary value. Pure concept money, having no nonmonetary use/demand to speak of (apart from a few collectors, historians, etc.), becomes (nearly) worthless if demonetized."
YES to this! And let use this opportunity, Yellin' of troy, to say that there is much more in your commentary like this that is very right (walking with one shoe...every other step...), a joy to read I assure you. To save space, unfortunately, I cut the praiseworthy sections out to make progress where needed. Please understand. Each idea you've offered is speaking on behalf of thousands that share these same thoughts. Perhaps I am so wrong I do not see it, in which case I hope for civil treatment at the hands of yet another not born yesterday. ;-)
"Once it's established as money and the desired balances have been built up, one person's monetary demand is another's supply, so the aggregate monetary demand to be met by new physical supply is only whatever additional money is needed to keep up with a growing economy"
Please forgive me if I misunderstand your meaning. As I read this, it implies that the seller of a good has pricing power. I suggest that where the terms are not reached through equal participation, particularly when money supply is not being inflated, then the pricing power belongs to the money saver...the would-be buyer of the good. Monetary demand knows no limit if confidence remains that an "arbitrary regulating authority" can not facilitate the future destruction through rapid overproduction without limitation. Even central bank gold hoards know the bottom of the barrel exists. Otherwise, without limit to a flood of new money supply, the individual monetary demand would as you suggest shift to demand for goods instead. But as was said earlier, central banks would have no reason to "cheat" for paper, though they may spend out gold in the event of a need to settle budget shortfalls. Rather than national fiat currencies using each other for reserves, they would use gold. If you must see this with the dollar predilection, this same stationary gold reserve would be seen to "earn a return" as its dollar value would increase on behalf of the ever-inflating dollar supply. Better than interest, as the original asset is not risked out on loan!
You say:
"The principal moral here is that commodity money is best introduced gradually, perhaps by slow growth or accretion of communities that use it as money, rather than by any centralized decree about its monetary position; it is best as a "natural," "living" money"
Yes, though this money evolution is true for ANY money, be it "fiat concept" money or "commodity concept" money. All money finds its value in the ability to sustain its concept of utility in the eyes of the users. Gold as money has already "paid its evolutionary dues" through human history. Like riding a bicycle, it is easy to get back on. But once a paper money goes bad, the re-establishment of a viable paper currency often requires that the evolution be repeated from the gold starting point, or else use a neighbor's currency that still is held in confidence. The weening of Americans from gold to paper took many steps and many years. And it is failing. One small misstep at this point and it will "go Bolivian". The Russian Rouble must either go to the euro, or go to gold and evolve slowly back to paper, or the economy will not return. (The nation is only as strong as its currency.) I see in Russia's future they will naturally have both...euros for circulation, and gold for national reserves as needed for extraordinary expenses and deficit years.
You say in regard to cashing out of gold at the top (tainted with dollars in your vision again):
"selling *physical* gold -- which seems to be the recommendation that goes insistently with the prediction -- isn't an instant process of clicking the icon or calling your friendly, idle broker. You have to pry up the floorboards and transport the gold to the dealer, and when you get there you will find no parking nearby, and the line will stretch around the block, since dealers can't add space and staff fast enough to cope with a spiky market."
A price is only attained at any moment in time when there is a balance between buyers and sellers. Market forces bring the adjustment accordingly. I suggest some in line would be there to buy, so those in line would likely never see the broker's ante-room. They would pair up and settle in the street...the street price for gold!
You say next:
"Now, no one is predicting some huge technological or aesthetic change in physical demand (or supply), so the idea must be a flood of new *monetary* demand, a remonetization of gold. But what all that theory tells us is that at ten times the present price, gold will not be such good money." ... "To make things still worse, there's the overhang of all those official gold holdings. In the last demonetization of gold, these were mostly retained, but if gold is tried again as money and fails again, this time spectacularly and on its own demerits, won't the official rejection be more convinced and total? Mightn't all those official holdings come onto the market and drive the price into the ground for a long while?"
First point, with paper money of recent experience, have we not seen its value at *infinite* times its non-monetary price (as you are hereby suggesting rightly that gold is not now priced at its monetary value), and yet it has functioned reasonbly well...the failings owing to the presence of the "arbitrary supply regulator"--bank and government monetary and fiscal policies. Again, the history of man has been the long slow introduction and evolution of the monetary use of gold. This is natural and stable. On your last point, if it did not work on its own demerits?? What would replace it? Would we flee to paper...the sudden reintroduction of unnatural paper? Your own careful arguments alone would prohibit such a thing from occurring, even dismissing these other thoughts I have offered.
In your final analysis of gold "at such an unimaginable high price" as we have often seen discussed ($30,000 or so), you say:
"At such prices, gold will be the softest "hard money" you can imagine. For practical economic purposes, it will be almost like concept money. And unlike pure concept money, this will represent a *change* in its economics. If people have once accepted and gotten used to money with a key ratio of infinity, a rise to twice infinity hardly seems to matter. But if you thought of gold as good money precisely because its ratio was low, because its commodity value provided security, then an effective loss of that state of affairs is an *event*, a news peg, an occasion to reconsider one's policy."
Much of this has been already addressed. In your comment that our illusion of good gold money based on its high commodity value...NO! That has never been implied or presented as such by anyone at the Forum of which I am aware. TO REVIEW: All "true money" is "concept" money, my friend. If it were not, it would be called "barter" rather than "buying". The utility of the universal bartering commodity quickly elevates its commodity use to that of money, establishing a stable value on a plateau much higher than its pre-monetary use. A monetary commodity, whether it be dollars, pesos, roubles, or gold, is valued according to the perfection with which it serves the monetary purpose. Gold has no rival.
got gold?
Hipplebeck
(10/15/99; 6:19:16MDT - Msg ID:16417)
Tomcat
If the market is so closed and secret, how do you know facts 1, 2, and 3 are true?
Michael
RossL
(10/15/99; 4:51:55MDT - Msg ID:16416)
GC9Z
Gold wakes up in London this morning. $317.80
NASDAQ off nearly 1% in overnight trading.
US dollar down. Oil down.
Turbulent day ahead!
Quabbin
(10/15/99; 4:41:27MDT - Msg ID:16415)
Tice vs Tyco
http://www.smartmoney.com/smt/columns/rational/index.cfm?story=19991014
Wise commentary from "SmartMoney". Isn't that mag delivered by the boy who rides by the house on a raging bull in the morning? Has the world gone topsy-turvy? Hmmm...mebbe de bull is raging from that mad cow disease.
Or maybe....hmmm...just maybe....
Greenspan: "No you idiots! You were all supposed to short Tyco and cover your gold butts!!! I gave Tice all our friggin CB gold for that report!!!"
Captains of Industry: "Well...thats confusing; we heard short and gold in the same sentence and just assumed...man, are we ever in deep chit now."
Greenspan: Ahhhhh, damned idiots!! Ok, I got one more trick up my sleeve. I'll fix it tonight at the ABA. Just short the whole market tomorrow and COVER YOUR FRIGGIN GOLD!!! You friggin idiots! Jeez!"
[j/k Mr Tice :)]
someone please pass the link on to Loomer at G-E re: his Oct 15, 00:07 post. Thanks.
(ps: due to coincedence, I haven't been able to post at either site for quite awhile. Here it turns out to have been a capital O/zero mistake. There, i still don't why.)
The Invisible Hand
(10/15/99; 3:50:49MDT - Msg ID:16414)
Wall St seen sharply lower on Greenspan comments
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/991015/ec.html
Perhaps, they'll listen today.
Good dogs!
Quabbin
(10/15/99; 3:32:34MDT - Msg ID:16413)
Newmont Hedge Disclosure
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/micro_stories.pl?ACCT=615675&TICK=NEM&STORY=/www/story/10-13-1999/0001043469&EDATE=Oct+13,+1999
Good morning class. Time to do a little dissecting. Who would like to make the first incision?
SteveH
(10/15/99; 2:57:26MDT - Msg ID:16412)
repost
www.kitco.com
The gold gambit that brought on a
nightmare
by ANTHONY HILTON City Editor
Ask central bankers these days what they are there for
and they will say it is to avoid systemic risk. They may
have various responsibilities for economic management,
but what unites them is the need to stop the system
behaving in such a way as to threaten the viability of
financial institutions. Their nightmare is that the problems of
the bad will do serious damage to the good and that
contagion will spread worldwide.
It is a laudable aim and by and
large bankers do it rather well,
most notably just a year ago
when US Federal Reserve
chairman Alan Greenspan
slashed interest rates to
support the financial system in
the bloodbath that followed
the collapse of Russia. His
action restored that precious
commodity of confidence.
It is all the more ironic, therefore, that these same central
bankers seem to have created a major systemic problem
with their action two weeks ago to try to stop the slide in
the gold price. Seeing the price at its lowest for years, they
decided to bolster it by placing a restriction on gold sales.
But instead of stabilising the price it sent it soaring.
What the bankers failed to appreciate was that after years
of decline a whole industry had built up with speculators
selling gold they did not own in order to profit from further
declines. So when the price reversed overnight, huge
numbers of people were caught short. The result was a
surge in price that has caused such instability that some
long-established mines have been effectively forced out of
business.
The consequences in the financial sector are rumoured to
be even more brutal. Indeed, there was a tale doing the
rounds in London yesterday that Goldman Sachs was $2
billion in a hole. Needless to say, it is only a totally
unconfirmed rumour and not the sort of thing one would
expect them to comment on.
Nevertheless, it seems likely that some firms are in a
dreadful mess. The central bankers have unwittingly set off
their greatest nightmare. The abrupt reversal in the price of
gold poses, if not a systemic risk, something
uncomfortably close to it for a lot of firms.
SteveH
(10/15/99; 2:52:48MDT - Msg ID:16411)
Farfel
http://www.the-times.co.uk/news/pages/Times/frontpage.html?999
We had got word on that being in the works but I believe most of have forgotten. What is the reliability factor on that?
Also, at http://www.the-times.co.uk/news/pages/Times/frontpage.html?999
Tory leader puts himself at head of national campaign to save the pound in response to formation of Labour's new "patriotic alliance" on Europe
SteveH
(10/15/99; 2:41:20MDT - Msg ID:16410)
She-gold
Good find on that post(s).
Market Mth Open High Low Last Change Date Time Ask Bid
Gold(CMX) Dec 314.2 317.1 314.2 317.1 +2.9 10/15/99 1:25 317.4 316.5
Silver(CMX) Dec 534.0 541.0 533.5 540.0 +6.0 10/15/99 1:24 540.5 539.0
Copper(CMX) Dec 78.80 78.90 78.50 78.50 -0.50 10/14/99 23:57 78.85 78.40
Platinum(NYM)(Access) Jan 405.1 410.0 405.1 408.0b -2.5 10/15/99 1:21 409.9 407.0
Market Mth Open High Low Last Change Date Time Ask Bid
Crude Oil(NYM)(Access) Nov 22.45 22.49 21.93 22.05 -0.40 10/15/99 1:21 22.07 22.05
Farfel
(10/15/99; 1:41:14MDT - Msg ID:16409)
Gold Producers' Cartel Announcement Today?????
Hmmmm?
Michael, have you heard any news? I just got a phone call and am trying to confirm.
If it's true, it's about time. The news will blow the gold shorts out of the water.
Gold producers of the world unite!
I said as much on Kitco many many times.
Thanks
F*
Tomcat
(10/15/99; 1:22:13MDT - Msg ID:16408)
Why is the POG going down?
Lets look at the facts.
1. There are thousands of tons of leased gold that was then sold short in the gold carry trade.
2. There is more paper gold than physical gold.
3. The recent run up in the POG has caught the shorters with their pants down and they must cover by buying physical gold.
Conclusion: Since there is not enough gold to go around the POG will be driven up and up and up.
Then why doesn't the POG keep rising?
Here is why?
The above analysis presumes that a free gold market exists and that the law of supply and demand will force up the POG.
Here's the catch: A FREE MARKET FOR GOLD DOES NOT EXIST.
The market for gold is a private insider market. It is a market that is closed, clandestine, and undercover. It is a market that you and I do not have access to. Its workings, its guidelines, its power, and its logic are not available to us.
The past fourteen days have been momentous in international finance history. Have you seen much about it in the press? Of course not.
Do you read about the gold lease rates in the WSJ? Of course not.
The press does not report on the insider world of gold.
And so we must live is a vacuum and an absence of facts. While reaching for facts that don't exist I frequently slip into the free market frame of mind. When this happens I have to force myself to wake up and snap out of my delusional stupor. Unfortunately, the free market logic is all I have. Its been with me for years and years. Its my security blanket. Its the paradigm I live with. And its also the paradigm that blinds me to the truth.
So the next time you wonder about the POG take a look aroud.
Get oriented and get a handle on where you are. You might find that you are just outside the den of the gold "insiders". And if you do, recognize that are closer than most have ever been. Stay. Look. Listen. You are at the edge of truth.
And with every fact we find we help expose the truth and reveal the lies associated with false money. With the internet and with each other the walls of this evil den will eventually fall on those insiders who perpetuate the The Evil Force of Fiat.
Golden Truth
(10/15/99; 0:12:51MDT - Msg ID:16407)
TO F.O.A!!!
Just finished watching the movie "Rollover" and the account# 21215 which was used to buy GOLD with played a very important part. Actually i'd say a deadly part!
After watching this movie i don't want the P.O.G to go past $600 to $1000 dollars, if what happens at the end of the movie is even close to reality.
If this happens there will be a lot of BLOOD in the streets and for what? I remember you once saying that GOLD would go up to $30,000/oz,but that we wouldn't like it?
If this truly does happen i,am going to hate it!
Do you really think WAR can be avoided? Look at the new movie out already "Three Kings" which is basicly a movie to go out and get some gold for oneself, by taking it from someone else. I think it sets the stage for things to come. GOD Help us all!!!!!!!!!!! G.T :-(
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