1-800-869-5115 We welcome your inquiry.

Home How to Buy Gold Live Gold Price Daily Market Report Gold IRA Charts Stats Essays Trading & Storage High Net Worth Gold Coin Prices Gold Primer Q&A Breaking Gold News Mobile Gold Price Gold Coin Catalog About Us-Contact Search Video Round Tables

Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

FORUM ARCHIVES

Select date of the archive you wish to view Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Archives date back to September 22, 1998

WELCOME TO THE ARCHIVES!

ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/14/2006
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Topaz (11/14/06; 23:49:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 149374)
Hyperinflation?
It's easy to imagine circumstances where H might come calling "IF" we have an alternative to act as a Yardstick.
At present we don't! All the other Currencies are Fiat derivatives of Buck which is the Fiat equivalent of 1/60th a Barrel of Oil.
No Bugs, this isn't the key to unravelling the enigma imo.

Chris Powell (11/14/06; 23:45:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 149373)
Silver smashdown imminent
http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=fundsNews2&storyID=2006-11-14T233006Z_01_N14304116_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-SILVER-GFMS-URGENT.XML
The warning is the usual disinformation
from GFMS.

* * *

Silver to Hit $15/oz on Investor Demand, GFMS says

From Reuters
Tuesday, November 14, 2006

NEW YORK -- Strong investor buying of silver, fueled by a popular exchange-traded fund, is likely to take the silver price 17 percent higher to $15 an ounce in the next few months despite lower fabrication demand, precious metals consultant GFMS said on Tuesday.

The London-based firm said in its half-yearly Interim 2006 Silver Market Review that demand from investors remained the main driver of silver and had raised silver to a "well-above-equilibrium" price level.

"GFMS expects significant price volatility but, over the next few months at the least a bias to the upside, with a spike to $15/ounce very possible," GFMS said in its report, compiled by GFMS for the Silver Institute, a trade group for silver miners, refiners, and fabricators.

Spot silver traded at around $12.80 an ounce Tuesday afternoon. Between June and October, silver prices have gained almost 30 percent. Spot silver rose to trade around $15 in May, ignited by the launch of the iShares Silver Trust, the first U.S. silver ETF.

"There is a possibility that we will see more investor money going to the metal, particularly as gold has had a good run, and silver could also be quite a bit higher," GFMS Chairman Philip Klapwijk told Reuters.

But GFMS cautioned that as investors were building up stock through ETF, they might decide to liquate at some point, although the risk was moderated partly because of the ETF's broad ownership.

Also, slowdown in industrial demand and substantial rise in mine production growth might hurt silver prices in 2007, GFMS said.

Total fabrication demand -- which includes demand from industries, jewelry and silverware, and photography -- should fall by just over 3 percent for 2006, GFMS said. It noted that demand saw solid growth in 2005 despite the massive price increase.

GFMS's Klapwijk said a large part of silver fabrication demand is not very price sensitive in the short run.

Industrial demand was expected to post a full-year gain of 1 percent, but it should slow toward the end of 2006 and possibly fall in 2007, according to GFMS.

GFMS also forecast that demand for jewelry and silverware to fall 8 percent due to a slump in India, while photographic use was expected to drop by nearly 11 percent in 2006 due to the switch to digital photography.

In terms of supply, GFMS was expecting mine production to increase by 0.6 percent, or 4 million ounces, in 2006.

GFMS said that it was pegging greater mine output increase of around 16 million ounces in 2007, with strong growth forecast to continue into 2008.

Scrap supply was forecast to be broadly unchanged this year despite higher silver prices, while government sales should be on track for a marginal increase, GFMS said.

Chris Powell (11/14/06; 23:35:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 149372)
China should 'pick right time' and buy gold, economist says
http://asia.news.yahoo.com/061115/3/2sw9m.html
From Reuters
Wednesday, November 15, 2006

BEIJING -- China should buy more gold at the right time as part of a strategy for diversifying its $1 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, a prominent government economist said in remarks published on Wednesday.

The economist, Xia Bin, head of the financial research institute at the Development Research Centre, the cabinet's think tank, has long advocated more active management of the growing stockpile of reserves.

"China should use its surplus reserves to fund economic reform and important national strategic projects. China should also pick the right time to increase the proportion of gold in its reserves," the overseas edition of the People's Daily, the mouthpiece of the ruling Communist Party, quoted Xia as saying.

China has 600 tonnes of gold in its reserves.

Flatliner (11/14/06; 23:25:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 149371)
@David Linkley
I apologize for my enthusiasm. I am more of an observer, or student, on this topic of gold than a teacher, or policy setter. I do not know what the future will bring and carry many of the concerns that you express. Freegold may, or may not come anytime soon (or never). Who is to say if that system will be any better than the one that we currency live under? With many things in life, it is a matter of perspective.

One thing that I am sure of is that I'm pretty open to new ideas and have a willingness to engage. That is why I spend time investigating and questioning what I see. It may be impossible to prove something perfect, but it is usually really easy to prove that something is flawed. We have all seen how so many things about the current economic system is flawed, could there be something that is not as flawed?

Overall though, I know that I'm a skeptic. The idea that a central banker would genuinely do something to the economic system that would improve my life is something that is hard for me to swallow. I will only truly believe it when I see it.

Who is to say if the coming changes will be good or bad? It seems like it could go either way. But the more I read and observe, the more actions that I see on a worldly scale that seem to hint that there really is a battle being waged for economic control between the really big players. The enthusiasm that you read in my posts could probably be likened to the drunk guy in a bar that sobers up enough to notice that, even though the room is full of people partying and carrying on like they have for hours, the bartender, band and waitress quietly cleared out and in one little corner of the room, on a solo TV, there runs a live breaking story where the international police squad is closing in on an out-of-control party at a local pub that looks very much like the one he's sitting in. Something just don't seem right.


Flatliner (11/14/06; 23:24:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 149370)
@Goldilox
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation
The Wikipedia has a pretty general definition that leans heavily into the price side of things. What is interesting, is that it's clearly obvious that the rate of currency expansion and the amount of created currency is enormous. But, you can't really have the ‘dictionary’ definition of hyperinflation if it doesn't react in the prices of things.

Will the withdrawing of goods really spark an infinite run on prices? It hasn't happened in the gold market. In that market, it seems obvious that anyone wanting to ‘break the bank’ is told the metal has been lent out, come back another day. Will the same thing happen in the oil markets?

I don't know what to make of it other then the fact that it is puzzling.


GOLD FINGER (11/14/06; 23:17:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 149369)
Disasters and the market
http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/richricher/12121
Sunny days to all gold bugs!!

It's been a thrill to read all the fascinating conversations here. Some, I can agree with and others I find utterly amusing. The US elections had everyone talking or writing for that matter! I found it interesting how some will point out what we possibly have to FEAR with the new results.

In fact, I find FEAR to be the dominating emotion that prevails with this gold forum. Is it because we really have no crystal ball to show us what tomorrow brings? Are we all just trying to predict how the future will unfold?

Well, I for one really do not need to be motivated by fear. I act with my gut. I have done this all my days and it has never lead me astray. I must say it's good to have an informative gut feeling and that's what leads me to believe that if your holding actual physical GOLD in the next few months you will be better off than you are today.

I read and follow many articles from several groups. Here is one and the other is posted in the url bracket. Simple ideas for a not so simple future. So did I cause you to FEAR?? OR BE FEARLESS!! :-)

Cheers,
GF

Seems like everyone has something to say...about fear!!


http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/CompanyFocus/3SignsThatAStockCrashIsComing.aspx

Knallgold (11/14/06; 23:00:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 149368)
DL
"Without the other elements I've listed, the concept of freegold will mean little as governments world wide tighten their grip on what remains of their resources (including gold)"

But Gold is exactly where their grip will be stopped-quasi by decree.FreeGold is as much about taking Gold away from the governement,its no more official money.CB will protect its role for stability sakes.How was that FOA citation about the hard money socialists???

And please forget the "15%" backing.Its sounds a little pregnant.No backing of the currency,no promises.Pure fiat.FreeGold will be on the total opposite for balance.

mikal (11/14/06; 22:50:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 149367)
Museum for credit derivatives?
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/e6cc3c40-7415-11db-8dd7-0000779e2340.html
New "Warehouse" For Derivatives | Financial Times | Markets
November 14, 2006
@David Linkley, Belgium, CB2, Maxwell - Good to see you and others again!
This short article is on a special place for OTC credit derivatives that is just amazing.
Here, in one place they're going to make things all better- after they've kept track of who owns what and how much and all, "regulation" is going to save the day- NOT!
Reality is it looks like a neocon staging/sorting area of a suspect, an instrument of mass financial destruction,
for the day the excrement exits the air circulator.
A cozy detention facility with one exit going to the gallows and the other easy street.
And then maybe a museum...

mikal (11/14/06; 22:26:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 149366)
@David Linkley
The US dollar currently spends, and for that I have much to be thankful for. In the history of currencies, rarely has anyone encountered that opportunity for as long as I have (half a century). And then to be able to have a rare look forward to an improvement on that. Something even bigger and better.
"The ability to produce" is improving overall. There are areas in the world such as the US where artifial supports to business toook the form of underpriced raw good and resource exploitation fromthe third world. This is gradually changing. Like third world sweatshops, it's a matter of awareness and willpower to overcome government sponsored slavery and oppression such as in the Republic of Ireland, parts of Mexico, many districts in China and on and on.
I don't see and don't expect "the rule of law" to go sour. The frequency and type of crime in the US is improving in some areas, worsening in others but nowhere is crime more serious than in officialdom and in the less civilized countries, whose citizens exploit every opportunity to flee their country of birth for Italy, for the UK, the US etc. But I even see movements to curtail the overreach of the executive branch and police state powers. Deregulation that favors large corporations is giving way to more incentives for small business.
Again, the change is gradual but opportunities for success are not- there is no limits on personal achievement
I see gradual heightened awareness on issues vital to the world's people and environment. Health and safety for example have been spearheaded by people in Europe. The euro is another innovation and MTM is being adopted globally. The quality of life for people in areas of previous exploitation such as Asia including India is gradually improving. Currencies can be expected to do the same IMO.

David Linkley (11/14/06; 21:37:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 149365)
To Belgian, Flatliner and The Invisible Hand
I read your posts at times to get a sense of what you're thinking these days and I must say your concept of freegold seems to me to be an economic and political oxymoron at this time in history. Gold in and of itself does not provide for an enduring period of strong currencies and economic success. Gold combined with the freedom to produce, a strong rule of law, moral leadership and a strong military can result in a strong foundation for lasting prosperity. The US for instance has currently foresaken it's roots of these elements and has reached a fork in the road in which one way leads to Patriot Acts, Detention Bills, perpetual war and a virtual police state while the other "harder road" leads to a return to the Constitution sound money and eventually a new economic start. The freegold Euro and other currencies are in a similar position to that of the US dollar, they are promises to pay junk. Without the other elements I've listed, the concept of freegold will mean little as governments world wide tighten their grip on what remains of their resources (including gold). I appreciate your posts but find your enthusiasm for socialist governments with a supposed backing of 10-15% gold for their currency's to be some sort of solution in today's world a bit reaching.

Goldilox (11/14/06; 20:31:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 149364)
Hyperinflation
@ Flatliner,

"Hyperinflation is a situation where no one saves and the velocity of currency exchange drives prices through the roof."

This may be more a question than a statement, but isn't hyperinflation the printing of money to the point of its own worthlessness, no matter how the mechanism of "price" reacts?

It seems to me that withdrawing goods from a specific monetary market may very well be acknowlegement that the price is about to go infinite in that currency.

Will listen to responses . . .

The Invisible Hand (11/14/06; 18:29:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 149363)
Freegold transition process
http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,1947759,00.html

What if Atlas shrugged?


KROES SETS DEADLINE FOR MICROSOFT
SNIPS
Brussels gives Microsoft nine-day deadline to provide its rivals with outstanding details of its software systems or face fresh fines.
+
· Commissioner says she is losing patience
· Energy and finance sectors also in spotlight

The Invisible Hand (11/14/06; 18:18:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 149362)
Open oil trade …
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/international-effort-to-open-up-oil-trade/2006/11/12/1163266413071.html

by acknowledging the fact Freegold becomes reality NOW!


INTERNATIONAL EFFORT TO OPEN UP OIL TRADE
SNIP
THE world's most powerful central bankers will meet in Melbourne this weekend to PLOT TO PRY open the global oil cartel, with the aim of bringing down petrol prices at the pump.

==

In Dutch, there's a saying "absents have always the wrong position". (In French also.).

I am not at home and I have thus no access to my dictionaries, but in my mind, (at least one of) the verbs "to plot" and "to pry" have a negative consonance. "Negative" consonance I said, but POSITIVE for Freegold, I think.

Since Paulson and Britain's Brown will be absent …

Les absents ont toujours tort. Afwezigen hebben altijd ongelijk.

Camel (11/14/06; 18:03:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 149361)
Peak oil

@FR

I'm no expert , but It may be the two studies you mentioned are comparing apples and oranges." Peak oil " I believe is generally considered to refer to conventional oil pumped from the ground in the usual way. This is what is expected to peak sometime in this decade, just as it peaked in this country in 1970.

The other sources of hydro-carbons mentioned such as the Canadian tar-sands and the Venezuelan pitch are probably not figured in the studies put out by the Campbell group. Some of these potential sources are said to have certain "problems" that may limit the amount of oil that can be recovered. The Canadian tar sands use huge amounts of water to extract the oil and it is now generally assumed that one or more nuclear plants will have to be built to heat the water

Some similar problems exist in the Orinoco deposits as it so thick it doesn't flow like regular oil. The deeper it is the more energy it takes to get it out.

I watch the Saudi output as the bell weather for the peak oil theory . They keep saying they will increase their production , but it never seems to get over 10 million barrels per day. Iraq is also said to have considerable potential to increase their output , hence the war.



Flatliner (11/14/06; 17:51:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 149360)
This is not hyperinflation.
Hyperinflation is a situation where no one saves and the velocity of currency exchange drives prices through the roof.

What do you call an environment where no one spends their currency, yet the goods in the environment disappear?

Contrary to the boastings of many in this forum, we are witnessing a situation where prices are relatively stable when compared to the currency that has been created, but the function of the dollar is being removed by the removal of goods.

In other words, if someone refuses to trade, does that just skip the hyperinflationary period and end up at the end of the game at … worthless?


The Invisible Hand (11/14/06; 17:30:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 149359)
I won't be long ...
http://news.newsmax.com/?bWaVGbaZ25AL-Zs8706.mnQK6Xb
SNIP
Alert: China Dumping U.S. Dollars

Yes Flatliner,
Wow. Those that hold dollars will be in for a rude awakening when they discover that the market place of goods no longer exists for their dollars!

It won't be long before the foondamental difference between the ECB and the Fed will also occur/appear to the sheeple.

Therefore, it is not surprising that both managers/ administrators (ECB and Fed) have opposite gold policies. (And Bernanke was so stupid last week in Frankfurt as to let this appear in the open. Let's keep our fingers crossed for this week-end in Melbourne.)

To repeat: It won't be long before the sheeple will start noticing this.

Flatliner (11/14/06; 17:14:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 149358)
@Belgian
Wow. Those that hold dollars will be in for a rude awakening when they discover that the market place of goods no longer exists for their dollars!

Belgian (11/14/06; 16:32:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 149357)
@ Flatliner
I don't see it as an "avenue"...but rather an orderly/gradual (diffuse) "process". Let the goldprice remain contained for as long as needed. In the mean time, gold-currencies do continue to develop (position for the bidding). TIH has been posting many links to relevant (and very prudent) statements illustrating how (and where) "the process" is developping...from Kazachstan to Algeria.
WHY is there such an increase in gold-mining all over the globe while we are still supposed to percept gold being "sold" by CBs !? Paradoxal, no.

And what about the recent (prudent) exposure of the fundmental difference between ECB-FED !? Is this the end of the process or rather the very beginning of it ? Apparently, nobody sees the (free)gold-link...yet .

WHY must the (rapid) expanding russian oil/gas-cartel be demonized ?

At this time, in the transition process, the very existance of the freegold concept is enough. Give all the traveling (freegold) consultants time to reach the opportune moment for freegold implementation.

Goldilox (11/14/06; 16:19:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 149356)
Gold, the USDX and Crude Oil
http://www.jsmineset.com/
@ Gandalf,

snip;

Today it was Fed Bank President Poole's turn to mouth the dollar higher. Unfortunately his beard is less well kept than the Professor's, so his words brought the dollar up from .8480 to .8530, but is now in the process of giving that back.

By examination of the chart below, you will have to agree that .8500 is the number which represents the mark where the Fed cheerleaders are chanting "Hold that Line." I wonder where they got that number from since it does not adhere to any common technical study.

Gold which closes earlier on the COMEX ended off $1.60 tracking the dollar's action.

Crude again touched its support area and bounced back.

-Goldilox

And I thought it was my taunting that rescued the sawbuck!

Goldilox (11/14/06; 16:16:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 149355)
Currencies
@ Flatliner,

" . . . as economies grow and shrink, the amount of currency in circulation must expand and contract."

Is one of the major liquidity problems based on the fact that TPB cannot bear to actually contract currencies when it might be appropriate? That seems to me to be the basis for constant currency inflation since 1913.

In my 50+ years, I can't ever remember a "currency burning" party where the FED decided to "contract' the amount of currency in circulation - book and crop burning, yes, but NEVER currency!

Flatliner (11/14/06; 15:34:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 149354)
@Belgian
I have a question that I believe you are uniquely qualified to answer. By which avenue will the MTM currencies succeed at bidding for oil while gold is still contained?

Flatliner (11/14/06; 15:04:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 149353)
@Sierra Madre
Almost. I see it as a showdown between the Strong Dollar paper cartel and the MTM backed paper cartel for oil backing.
The negotiations that we saw between Russia and their big customers (last January) shows that Russia endorses the use of private contracts in its oil dealings. If Russia were to sell its oil in the open public markets, they would be under the influence of the Strong Dollar Policy stated by the US Government – but, they know that they cannot redeem their surpluses in gold (Gold is also under the influence so no one will give it up). Thus, the next best thing for them is to offer up their oil in their currency, that function will make the currency strong which they can counter through inflation. Thus, Oil in Rubbles provides the ability for them to acquire value through inflation.

As it has been spelt out in this forum before, the only one nation in the ME needed to support the dollar in the open market in order for the illusion to be complete. For that open market support, that one supporter was rumored that they received gold and security for their troubles.

If the MTM backed paper cartel were to 1- get the biggest oil producers to not trade for dollars, they could stop their support for the paper gold market. Gold would find its true value in little time empowering the MTM paper cartel to keep the price of oil stable in dollar terms. The rise in the price of gold would empower the MTM paper cartel to not only liquidate the paper oil, but also make the illusion complete by funneling oil into that market to prevent default. Effectively, the fallout from the broken Strong Dollar Policy would be contained.

Got Gold?

Belgian, I crafted the above before reading your posting. You have been gone for too long. The bread crumbs that you have left for me to follow have been quite cryptic. Thank you for your words of encouragement many months ago.


Belgian (11/14/06; 14:49:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 149352)
@ Flatliner
The $-regime/system is in the proces of losing its (old fashioned) control on oil (gas) AND oil (gas)-pricing.
W're past peak $$$$$$-oil (gas). Watch how Russia's (and Iran's) oil-gas cartel is building. Many currencies will soon "bid" for oil/gas. Some will have strong (very strong) purchasing power...and others will have weak purchasing power...
Soon, the *- pricing -* of oil/gas will be clearly understood...

USAGOLD Daily Market Report (11/14/06; 14:44:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 149351)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

TUESDAY Market Excerpts

Gold chops sideways, PPI falls

November 14 (from Reuters) -- U.S. gold futures erased early gains to end slightly lower on Tuesday, after the dollar clawed back some ground lost on U.S. data showing slower economic growth and diminished inflation.

The COMEX December gold contract ended 50 cents easier at $625.30. It peaked at $630.40 before falling to $620.00. Analysts see more upside potential after gold consolidates.

The contract hit a two-month high at $638 on Friday, up more than 13 percent from a four-month low on Oct. 4 at $563.50.

The bullish case rests on strong technicals since gold broke above $600, anxiety about the nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea, and prospects for a U.S. growth slowdown.

The dollar fell against the euro and yen, giving overseas gold investors a buying incentive, after the Labor Department said its Producer Price Index fell 1.6 percent in October. That was the biggest drop in over 13 years, and three times the 0.5 percent fall expected on Wall Street.

At the same time, retail sales fell 0.4 percent last month, against expectations of a 0.2 percent decline.

"The numbers translate to the Fed keeping rates stable, if not considering cutting them. And that would only boost gold as well as weaken the dollar," said one gold dealer.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---

Flatliner (11/14/06; 14:13:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 149350)
Not Another's words, but in dialog:
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
"Soon, European oil purchases will be made in, partial gold backed Euro's that "in US dollar terms", will be the same as 100% gold backed currency! As Another would say: Gold and oil will never flow in the same direction!"


Sierra Madre (11/14/06; 13:57:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 149349)
CENTRAL BANK CHIEFS TO TAKE ON OIL, GAS CARTELS...


So, it's a showdown between the PAPER CARTEL and the OIL AND GAS CARTEL.

Flatliner (11/14/06; 13:46:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 149348)
@yesterday's The Invisible Hand posting that read
Snip:
CENTRAL BANK CHIEFS TO TAKE ON OIL, GAS CARTELS
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=29&ContentID=12866
The world's most powerful central bankers will meet in Melbourne next weekend to try to pry open the global oil cartel, with the aim of bringing down petrol prices at the pump.
As the oil price edges back up towards $US60 a barrel, they want to loosen the world's tightly bound oil and gas markets and avert a destructive scramble for energy resources.
+
"We would like there to be some agreement that cartels should not operate in open global and competitive energy markets," Mr Costello [Australian Treasurer Peter Costello} said. The world's biggest oil producers will be at the table, including the most important member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Saudi Arabia. "We're going to have Saudi Arabia and Russia there, the big oil producers and the big consumers, the US and China, and this is our concrete global action on an issue which is totally connected to the hip pocket of every Australian family," Mr Costello said.

Flatliner - Has anyone been able to validate this claim that we saw on thewest.com.au yesterday? One might have thought that it would have caught people's attention here. It seems to me if Oil stops using public markets, denominated in dollars, it would be as good as opening competing markets in other currencies. Or, am I reading too much into this?


mikal (11/14/06; 13:23:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 149347)
"Terror" not out of left field
http://www.fmnn.com/WorldNews.asp?nid=26436
BRIT INTELLIGENCE CREATING TERROR EVENTS?
Tuesday, November 14, 2006 - FreeMarketNews.com

Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, director general of MI5, wants Brits to be afraid. "There are up to 30 alleged ‘mass casualty’ terror plots in operation in Britain, as well as hundreds of young British Muslims on a path to radicalization," reports the Independent. -Kurt Nimmo

Click Here For The Full Story
Mikal- This is a sampling of the literature
underscoring Goldilox assertions of complicity and duplicity in alleged "global fight against" and "terrorism".
As intelligence agencies and linked cells seem to sprout like anthrax spores on a pile of rotting fiat,
we can ask at what rate they will
dissappear if government spending ever adjusts to real economic pressure?
Replicating themselves in the future may depend
on exploiting smaller, more local social(and racial, class, etc.)polarities and/or quelling internal "dissent" &
free speech, rather than arranging, financing and fomenting so far away from view that when "terror" hits home, it seems like it came out of left field.

Federal_Reserves (11/14/06; 13:11:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 149346)
Peak oil debate
Global Oil Output Won't Peak for 25 Years, Yergin's Group Says

By Joe Carroll

Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Global oil production will increase for at least the next 25 years as new drilling and refining techniques make it possible to tap heretofore untouchable reserves, according to Cambridge Energy Research Associates, the consulting firm run by Daniel Yergin.

The world probably has 3.7 trillion barrels of oil left, more than twice the estimates of geologists and analysts such as Matthew Simmons, of the investment bank Simmons & Co., who argue global output is close to a peak, said Peter Jackson, director of oil-industry research for the Cambridge, Massachusetts, firm.

``The peak-oil theory causes confusion and can lead to inappropriate actions and turn attention away from the real issues,'' Jackson said in remarks prepared for a conference call today with analysts, investors and reporters. ``Oil is too critical to the global economy to allow fear to replace careful analysis about the very real challenges.''

The late geologist M. King Hubbert, working for a unit of Royal Dutch Shell Plc, first put forward in 1956 the theory that output from a specific oil deposit or region would peak and then start to decline following a predictable curve. His ideas have gained currency as oil prices tripled in the past five years and producers struggled to keep pace with rising demand in China.

The theory is ``misleading'' and based on incomplete data, according to today's report from Cambridge Energy. Worldwide oil production will rise by more than 50 percent to about 130 million barrels a day around 2030 before output plateaus, the report said. Yergin, the firm's founder, wrote ``The Prize,'' a Pulitzer-winning history of the oil industry.

When global crude output begins to fall around 2050, the decline probably will be gradual, giving policy makers, industry and energy producers time to develop new alternatives to petroleum-based fuels, the report said.

Peak Oil Study Group

The Association for the Study of Peak Oil estimates the world has 1.46 trillion barrels of oil left and that production will peak in 2010, according to the group's November newsletter. The group's leaders include British geologist Colin Campbell, who helped popularize the peak-oil theory with his 1997 book, ``The Coming Oil Crisis.''

An August report from Cambridge Energy that took issue with the peak-oil theory was criticized by the President of the peak oil association, Kjell Aleklett, as a money-making vehicle based on proprietary data that the firm was unwilling to submit to impartial scientific review.

Aleklett said Cambridge Energy analysts were too optimistic about the ability of big producers including Saudi Arabia to increase output.

Congress

U.S. Representatives Roscoe Bartlett, a Maryland Republican, and Thomas Udall of New Mexico, formed the House Peak Oil Caucus to promote the theory among lawmakers. Bartlett and Udall endorse the peak oil association's prediction that output will start declining after 2010.

``There is not much time to act,'' Udall, a Democrat, told a House Energy and Commerce Committee panel in December. ``Since oil provides about 40 percent of the world's energy, a peak in global oil production will be a turning point in human history.''

Refiners have used about 1.08 trillion barrels of crude since the birth of the petroleum industry in Pennsylvania in 1859, according to Cambridge Energy.

Undiscovered fields probably hold 758 billion barrels, followed by 704 billion trapped inside a very hard type of rock known as shale, and 662 billion in the Middle East, according to the report. The rest of the firm's 3.7 trillion barrel total comes from untapped reserves in the deepest seas, the Arctic and places such as Canada's tar sands and Venezuela's Orinoco basin.

Fifth Time

``This is the fifth time that the world is said to be running out of oil,'' Yergin said in an e-mailed statement. ``Each time -- whether it was the `gasoline famine' at the end of World War I or the `permanent shortage' of the 1970s -- technology and the opening of new frontier areas has banished the specter of decline.''

Oil prices have climbed 24 percent in the past two years and touched an all-time high of $78.40 a barrel in July. Economic growth in China, India and the U.S. has boosted demand while hurricanes and militant attacks crimped production in some regions, including the Gulf of Mexico and West Africa.

Cambridge Energy Research Associates, which advises governments, oil companies and financial institutions on energy issues, is not the only skeptic of the peak-oil theory.

Stuart McGill, a senior vice president who oversees Exxon Mobil Corp.'s oil and gas business, dismissed the peak theory in a Nov. 1 interview as being without merit. Irving, Texas-based Exxon is the world's biggest oil company, pumping more crude than every member of OPEC except Saudi Arabia and Iran.



Flatliner (11/14/06; 11:53:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 149345)
@knallgold
My thinking stems from – as economies grow and shrink, the amount of currency in circulation must expand and contract. These calculations that need to be done to keep balance seems to be a function of Savings + Spending. Thus, central banks might wrestle with questions like – in a growing economy, there is need for extra currency, but how much? We know that we must expand by a curtain percentage for debt servicing, but if too much is saved, we may have to create a little more to offset this so that demand for the commodity (currency) does not make our exports too expensive on the world markets. At the same time, if foreign reserves grow too large, foreigners may take control of our monetary policy by strengthening our currency to their trade advantage. Thus, we may have to devalue their holdings against the only real measuring stick – gold. This devaluing serves two purposes 1) helps to maintain a ‘real’ honest international trading level for the currency and 2) encourages the foreign body to convert into gold.

If gold is ever revalued so that it can serve its real goal in a Freegold environment, it will be the most important tool in the central bank's tool chest for monetary control.

You should conclude that I do not see central banks as merely the guardian of the gold stash, but as controllers of the currency and protectors of the right to print currency. If they can use gold, to their advantage, to maintain confidence in their currency, that is exactly what they will do. If it involves buying and selling gold, they will do it.

My previous posting was to provide my thinking with regards to what might happen when gold is free of its convertibility constraints. My thinking leads me to believe that Freegold will empower those that hold gold. Anyone that holds gold will have wealth that can be converted into assets that they can use to their advantage. Anyone that does not hold gold will not be wealthy. We all know that central banks hold lots of gold, thus they will be empowered to work their agendas.

We are all ants in comparison. If Freegold arrives, wouldn't you like to find yourself wealthy and in a position to take advantage of opportunities?

Short answer: Gold price is not directly related to currency inflation, but rather related to gold demand.


Flatliner (11/14/06; 11:19:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 149344)
Thanks ge.
From the link, Snips:

The official opening of SGE heralded the start of a brand new era in the gold market in China, and is further evidence of the intention of our government to deregulate its precious metals market.

...

Trading in the SGE is limited to physically-settled spot trading, executed between members either on the trading floor or on a computerized trading platform. Trading is also limited to standardised quantities of designated fineness designed around the needs of the physical rather than the speculative or investment market.

...

As of 30 April 2003, all 108 members have been online with a total transaction volume of 89,984 kilograms for a turnover of RMB 8.219 billion in all and the average daily trading volume reached 731.58 kilograms.

At a rate of approximately one tonne per day, SGE's gold volumes are already equivalent to the 220 tonnes per annum of Chinese national gold demand. It is clear that not all of these transactions are associated with physical bullion, since, although it is really largely a physical market, some members must have used SGE for speculation. But with the central bank's much-diminished role in this market, all of these transactions will soon gravitate to our Exchange and will probably lead to incremental growth in turnover.

The Shanghai gold price has become an indispensable reference for China's gold manufacturers and consuming enterprises in the process of selling, clearing and price fixing. Being the most authoritative price revealing the demographic gold supply and demand, it has received great attention from overseas markets. The price has risen from RMB 83.53 yuan/gram at the beginning of SGE's operation to RMB 92.37 yuan/gram at the end of 2002 by 10.58% (the international gold price rose 8.86% during the same period of time), showing that the Chinese gold price has been quite close to that of the international market.

Four major domestic commercial banks have partly fulfilled the function of gold trading. Their active involvement in gold trading has been of great importance in establishing the market, matching supply and demand and improving the liquidity of the market….

Flatliner – I asked "If individual investors are not allowed to trade on this exchange, who does?" Looks like there are four major domestic commercial banks that trade significantly in the market. Of course, we all know that banks also provide the foundation for customers to get involved through them as speculators in the market. But, maybe not. In any case it looks like these banks are serving their purpose of providing liquidity.



Goldilox (11/14/06; 11:07:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 149343)
Shot myself in the foot
Paulson's Pirate Toadies (PPT) love F'ing with me!

ge (11/14/06; 10:57:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 149342)
Flatliner - Shanghai Gold Exchange Members
http://www.lbma.org.uk/conf2003/4b.shen%20LBMAConf2003.pdf
Exchange members include commercial banks, gold producing corporations, gold consuming corporations and mints (from a 2003 LBMA document).

Knallgold (11/14/06; 10:45:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 149341)
Flatliner
Hmm,I'm not completely following the reasoning in your #149317.You imply that they rather screw with the indicator (Gold) of a rising money supply-but is this not just more of the same?"A stable inflation rate against the price of the Gold exchange"'surely this signals good times,confidence, business will invest etc..

But when the times are changing "In an environment where more currency is printed then that which finds function in the economy, the surplus will be exchanged for gold driving the gold price up." Right,thats exactly the purpose of this Golden valve,and thats why it is implemented uncompromised for the first time.To protect savings against currency depreciation,particularly in bad times,without having to resist an ever growing pressure on a formerly fixed convertibility.

This doesen't make the times good,cycles aren't dead.It will only save us through,without having to take Another final devastating hit.But manipulating the "inflation rate against the Gold exchange" by selling Gold (if I understand you correctly) is screwing with the only protection from currency depreciation.And if its possible to mop up business climate sustainable by tuning the Gold inflation rate is rather doubtful,the other side (money creation) should be targeted.

Though,in an imperfect world as we are, I see the temptation is there to meddle.But as the concept is formulated,the longevity and stability it guarantees should be incentive enough to stick to it.

After the implementation of the new monetary regime,I do see the role of CB's in regards to Gold merely as an operator/ guardian of this FreeGold market,they have sufficient Goldbacking to do it (a pre-requisite,"he who has the Gold...") and have stated it (unofficially).It would add some fresh meat to their recently diminished role in the markets.

Topaz (11/14/06; 10:41:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 149340)
alt currencies PoG.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=100/DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st=
Todays action would indicate we're back in Currencyville with Gold ...as it should be in the middle of a non-delivery month ie: full-blown Paper mode ...beware though, at this level, Gold has left the currencies for dead months ago and any mimicry is pure paper related ...or co-incidental.
Give it Another week and we'll begin to see Golds REAL potential from a price perspective imo.

Gandalf the White (11/14/06; 10:41:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 149339)
NOW look what you did ! Sir Goldie !!
The US$ did break the 85 level and then the PPT was awakened and PUMPED it up a full half point !
<;-(

Flatliner (11/14/06; 10:08:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 149338)
Legal change would keep baht fully backed by foreign reserves
http://bangkokpost.net/Business/14Nov2006_biz06.php
Snip:
A Currency Act amendment will leave the baht fully backed by foreign reserves, according to Chanchai Boonritchaisri, senior director of the Bank of Thailand's Legal and Litigation Department.

… (after a bit of BS) …

Mr Chanchai said the amendment was also aimed at helping the central bank to mark-to-market foreign reserves on a monthly basis so its account would better reflect market trends.

Current law permits the central bank to mark-to-market its foreign-reserve accounts once at the end of the year, running the risk of valuation losses.

"By making accounts better reflect the market, the central bank will be more careful with foreign-reserve management," he said.


Flatliner (11/14/06; 09:57:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 149337)
Chinese individuals take a shine to gold
http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=31687
This article says: "Rallying gold prices have sparked a passion with Chinese individual investors, who are not legally allowed to trade on the Shanghai Gold Exchange." Is there anyone in the forum that can expand on this? If individual investors are not allowed to trade on this exchange, who does?

Flatliner (11/14/06; 09:52:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 149336)
Foreign Gold Miners Could Be Set to Prosper in the Red East
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=26101
Snip:
According to the statistics of the China Gold Association, gold production in China was about 224 tonnes in 2005. China‘s gold production is forecast to be 240 tonnes this year, up 7% from 2005.

…

Not only is China's national gold industry expected to get a strong boost, but successful foreign companies active in China will also contribute to growing production in the years to come, according to the report.

The China Geological and Mineral Survey Bureau estimates the gold resources of China's 10 major provinces to be over 11,000 tonnes and the country's prospective gold resources at around 15,000 tonnes.

…

According to statistics of the China Mining Association, Shandong Province in east China is the richest area (approximately 40% of total proven reserves), followed by Shaanxi, Sichuan, Gansu, Yunnan and Guizhou. Production is centred on the eastern provinces where 70% of known gold deposits are located.

But most of China's production comes from small, underground mines with little mechanization, according to the report. Only a few mines produced more than 100,000 ounces annually, but have an annual average closer to 16,000 ounces.

"Missing many of the sophisticated techniques of the western approach including highly sensitive geochemical and geophysical survey as well as high-end interpretation of satellite imagery, China is relatively undiscovered. This offers a high potential for successful exploration," the report noted.

Flatliner – Trying not to read too much into this article. But, I guess if I had a trillion dollars in an environment where metal could not be found, I would invest in infrastructure and dig it out myself. Seems China is on this path. We all know Russia is on the same path. The previous article about Turkey shows that someone is trying to drum up interest there.

Dollars are easy to obtain, gold is not.


Flatliner (11/14/06; 09:35:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 149335)
Turkey's most important wealth lies underground
http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=58975
Snip:
Recently, a UNESCO-sponsored meeting was held in Ýzmir on "International Geological Studies." 70 academics from 16 countries discussed Turkey's mineral wealth and gold in particular. The common argument was that if the gold reserves are exploited properly, Turkey's future will indeed be bright.

Professor Ýsmet ... z from Dokuz Eylül University's Geology Department said Turkey was rich in gold reserves and added: "Ovacýk is very profitable. Exploitation in Kýþladað and Efem Çukuru is just beginning. If a country succeeds in exploiting its mineral wealth, that country will not face economic hardship. In gold extraction, modern and environmentally friendly technology is now used. We pay between $6 and $10 billion a year for oil. We can use gold to counterbalance this loss. Apart from the four known gold reserves, there are around 15 more gold reserves waiting to be exploited. They are waiting for permission." Waiting for permission is just a waste of time.

At the same meeting, the University of Oslo's Professor Nigel Cook made an important remark: "Turkey can save its economic future by exploiting is gold mines. Exploration continues: I believe the results will be good."

Flatliner – These guys seem to give more value to gold then the international exchange rate in dollars implies.


Goldilox (11/14/06; 07:22:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 149334)
Entitlement Spending
Not all entitlement spending is "gifted", although the way the SSI money is diverted to the general fund, one would think so.

The biggest "gift" is the Medicare Suppliments bill, that guarantees price supports for Big Pharma at public expense. "What the market will bear" has no meaning when gubmint steps in hands out pork.

Even during Clinton's dot-com boom years, they only achieved the appearance of a balanced budget by "borrowing" about $100 billion a year from SSI proceeds.

Too bad no one is enterprising enough to start a public referendum on allocation of funds "supposedly" collected for a specific purpose, but that has about as much chance in Washington as tying gubmint retirements to SSI.

If the law was written in a way that voters could see their representatives are either "for 'em or agin 'em", you would see an even bigger turnover in the next election.

Goldilox (11/14/06; 07:04:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 149333)
USDX
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s
Gap down at the open, trying to break thru support at 85.

mikal (11/14/06; 07:01:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 149332)
Entitlement spending unsustainable
http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul351.html
Demographic Reality and the Entitlement State by Ron Paul
November 14, 2006
Congressman Paul sees an end to the entitlement status quo.



ViewYesterday's Discussion.

Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.

Monday May 21
website support: sitemaster@usagold.com
Site Map - Privacy- Disclaimer
The USAGOLD logo and stylized gold coin pile are trademarks of Michael J. Kosares.
© 1997-2012 Michael J. Kosares / USAGOLD All Rights Reserved