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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 8/14/2005
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
968
(8/14/05; 23:47:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 134968)
@ Cobra(too)
Isn't it strange, in Ferdi's populistic 3 explanations, I see nothing about the pricingmechanism in which gold functions right now ?
Can you tell me, in your own words, why the POG will rise ?
Smeagol
(8/14/05; 22:13:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 134967)
Brrrr!
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/mackay-mississippi.html
Whilst sneaking the Casstle halls, we sstopped to read a chapter of "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds"in the Archives. A little chill ran down our neck when we read this part:
"For a time, while confidence lasted, an impetus was given to trade, which could not fail to be beneficial. In Paris, especially, the good results were felt. Strangers flocked into the capital from every part, bent, not only upon making money, but on spending it. The Duchess of Orleans, mother of the Regent, computes the increase of the population during this time, from the great influx of strangers from all parts of the world, at 305,000 souls. The housekeepers were obliged to make up beds in garrets, kitchens, and even stables, for the accommodation of lodgers; and the town was so full of carriages and vehicles of every description, that they were obliged in the principal streets to drive at a foot-pace for fear of accidents. The looms of the country worked with unusual activity, to supply rich laces, silks, broad-cloth, and velvets, which being paid for in abundant paper, increased in price four-fold. Provisions shared the general advance; bread, meat, and vegetables were sold at prices greater than had ever before been known; while the wages of labour rose in exactly the same proportion. The artisan, who formerly gained fifteen sous per diem, now gained sixty."
And then this - "New houses were built in every direction; an illusory prosperity shone over the land, and so dazzled the eyes of the whole nation that none could see the dark
cloud on the horizon, announcing the storm that was too rapidly approaching."
Yikes!
S.
TownCrier
(8/14/05; 20:53:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 134966)
Ned, you seem to have overlooked the condition in which a currency can fall to zero and basically stay there
http://www.usagold.com/goldenchalkboard/Turkey0901.gif
You said, "I've gathered all I can on the monetary expansion and the 'debtberg' that will soon implode. Inflation, hyperinflation, deflation.....a combo platter, who knows, who cares....she's going to pop, and pop large. A couple deflation books and Prector sealed this for me."
The clearest counter-argument I can provide is to ask you to consider, for example, the many Central or South American currencies that have just kept on inflating to the point where the monetary officials issued "new" currency notes to eliminate the ponderous chain of zeros on the prices of everything.
Turkey is another example of a country that cosmetically shed its zeros. The link shows you what can, and does, happen in these places of predominately one-way inflation.
You might want to ponder how you (or Prector) would account for the ongoing absence of the deflation you speak of in all of these cases. Try to answer to your own satisfaction why it is that these landscapes have witnessed no such Deflation Dragon to raise its magical head to burn away the bad excesses and restore these currencies to their full original strengths.
R.
Clink!
(8/14/05; 20:32:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 134965)
The non-contest
Not to second-guess our generous host, but I was just thinking that it is at moments like these - right at a technical breakout - that he has announced contests. I'm sure that it was NOT unintentional ! Nothing like a bit of volatility to stir things up.
Gold in a bubble ? I've been thinking a lot about bubbles recently, particularly the Dot.com and RE ones. I'm almost thinking that a definition of a bubble must be a certain multiple (in percent or time ?) beyond what seems "reasonable". Back in '75, did $300+ gold seem like it would be bubble territory ? I'm guessing yes. But the market swept way past that point.
In the current situation, we have a double whammy. On the one hand, we have the dollar, which, most everyone seems to agree, is walking on pretty thin ice at the moment. On the other, the price of gold has been suppressed by all the fiat barons for more than 30 years. I wouldn't be surprised to see gold at $50k at some time in the next 10 years, but, unfortunately, this being the case, we will see $100k/oz in the following 3 months. Of course, at that point it will cost about $10k to fill up an Explorer (Hummer drivers won't be permitted to do complete fillups).
It sounds kind of scary, but you only have to talk with old timers to realize how mere inflation in a "stable" economy can change things. When I started as a graduate engineer, I was paid about $4.5k per year. 25 years later, the starting salary is ten times that. When my dad started work just after WW2, he was paid about $200/year as an accounting apprentice.
So where will the bubble end ? I'd say much further out and up than we care to imagine at the present time. 2006 ? Nah. 2016 ? That's more like it. At $100k/oz errrr no, $3.5k/g. errrrr no, $15k/dinar.
C!
Ned
(8/14/05; 19:57:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 134964)
@ CoBra(too)
Hey buddy how are you? 'frr' mean anything to you?
I've never understood Belgian. That's okay. I have my own agenda.
I've gathered all I know about 'demographics' and this raging 'baby-boomer' force that's advancing mercilessly towards retirement. There will be a 'drawdown' of 'money' like never seen before. I posted a link this weekend to a great article on 'demographics', believe it was Henry To over at Gold-Eagle.
I've gathered all I can on this "Peak Oil" business, read half a dozen books. This WILL be the ugliest matter in human history.....and why argue endlessly whether its now, 2 years, 5 years, 10 or 20. What does it matter!
I've gathered all I can on the monetary expansion and the 'debtberg' that will soon implode. Inflation, hyperinflation, deflation.....a combo platter, who knows, who cares....she's going to pop, and pop large. A couple deflation books and Prector sealed this for me.
So I have (3) 20 page essays that I distribute to friends and relatives.
1) Demographics
2) Peak Oil
3) Deflation/depression
Read 'em and weep. I also tell them the top-down theory of TEOTWAWKI. Will it be 20 years, 10, 5 2, 1 ? Doesn't matter..IT WILL HAPPEN....get ready.
Take care CB2, have a golden day.
Clink!
(8/14/05; 19:50:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 134963)
Hobby horses
Gold by the kilo. Ah, yes ! We can all dream. Some of us can even do (lucky dogs !).
I must admit to having been profoundly shocked when I arrived in the US to see the total anarchy in terms of measure. The first weekend, we bought an exercise weight (aka the Sunday paper) and had a look through all the ads - heck, there was novelty value back then ! One of sections was an ad for a supermarket. There were seven different items where the item was described by volume - and each had a different unit of measure !
Orange juice - quart.
Beer - fl oz.
Milk - pint.
Soda - liter.
Water - gallon.
Storage container - cu ft
Laundry basket - bushel
Talk about making life unnecessarily complicated .....
C!
PS. Thanks for the thought, Sir Topaz, I'm back on mains power again.
PPS. The last time I saw the word bushel was in the King James version - how (early) 17th Century !
PRITCHO
(8/14/05; 19:01:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 134962)
@Golden Lionheart - - - Buy in Metric - I agree !
Thats why I buy my Gold by the kilo! :)
Golden Lionheart
(8/14/05; 17:48:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 134961)
Archaic Measurements
This is the 21st Century, so I've been told, yet we are still using the archaic quantity of the ounce as a unit in which to price gold.
IMHO it is time to change the pricing into the internationally used unit of the gram.
Here in Australia we changed to the metric system about 40 years ago. It was quite painless as far as I can remember.
Gold priced in Euros per gram or kilogram would help free this wonderful commodity from its link with the US$ and enhance its position throughout the world.
The Invisible Hand
(8/14/05; 16:57:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 134960)
The Gospel according to Mr. L.
Ferdi L. wants to achieve a higher POG not by The Revolution, but by three small revolutions, the GATA revolution, the education revolution and the mining revolution.
As to the first revolution, Mr L. alleges that GATA courageously fights for free markets, better markets, honesty, and a better world. GATA therefore deserves our full support.
How can that be given GATA's very name, the gold ANTI-TRUST action committee?
As Alan Greenspan wrote in Ayn Rand's "Capitalism: the Unknown Ideal"
"The world of antitrust is reminiscent of Alice's Wonderland: everything seemingly is, yet apparently isn't, simultaneously. It is a world in which competition is lauded as the basic axiom and guiding principle, yet "too much" competition is condemned as "cutthroat." It is a world in which actions designed to limit competition are branded as criminal when taken by businessmen, yet praised as "enlightened" when initiated by the government. It is a world in which the law is so vague that businessmen have no way of knowing whether specific actions will be declared illegal until they hear the judge's verdict -- after the fact."
As to the second revolution, Mr. L. wants to create a worldwide monetary institute for which you do not need a building. The free market will overwhelm the manipulators. The free market will decide the right price for gold. This can be achieved, he says, like the victory of Christendom over the Roman Empire.
Christians like goldbugs have an intuition which they say is true. I am not a religious person, so I may be wrong but it seems to me that the intuition of goldbugs can be supported by fact, whereas, as far as I know (please enlighten this Pagan writer), this is not possible for religious intuitions.
The third revolution displays the honesty of GATA and Mr. L.
quote
" I am going to speak to you as a representative of the gold-mining industry. …
We need a healthy mining industry. It is good for the world economy"
end of quote
If there's anybody in this room who thinks a representative of the gold-mining industry would say that the gold-mining industry is bad for the world economy, raise your hand. All invisible, yes?
Sorry, if you want to say that gold mining is good, you should at least try to hide that you're a gold miner yourself. Or do you believe in monkeys cutting the branch on which they are sitting?
CoBra(too)
(8/14/05; 16:05:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 134959)
Ferdi Lips Remarks ...
I'm in a bit of a loss at Belgians rather ridiculing words towards Ferdi Lips' comments at GATA's recent Goldrush conference in the Yukon.
I may, though, be the only unsophisticated gold advocat not understanding Belgian's meaning - I should probably say hidden meaning - as I seem to have had difficulties in the past to come to grips with some concepts as "free gold".
OK, I know the geological term of free gold and think I also came around to grasp the context of the buzz word as used by a few purists. God, wouldn't it be nice to have such a clear cut understanding of how the world should function. Black and white and no shades either!
Well, maybe B. will be gracious enough to fill me in on his reasoning, why he feels the above remarks are empty ( unstructured)and unprofessional. I'd also be happy to learn of sophisticated proposals to break POG manipulation ... since it apparently seems, I also don't understand a Iota about - where gold is going.
In my humble mind, Ferdi Lips is understanding the "why" far more than the "when"! ... and his conclusions suggest a lifetime of experience in the (gold-)markets.
cb2
Belgian
(8/14/05; 14:46:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 134958)
And after all these years...
...Dearest Ferdi still doesn't understand a iota about ...where Gold is going !
Why did the South African goldmines strike stopped, dearest Ferdi !!!??? And wich CBs exactly are you talking about ?
The one who keeps gold at a fixed price...or the one who is marking its goldreserves at market...or the CBs that are accumulating gold...? Oh dear.
Who or what exactly is going to break that particular goldprice manipulation you mention !?
Shouting "Gold to da moon" in such an empty (unstructured) context, smells very unprofessional to me, humble listener.
968
(8/14/05; 12:35:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 134957)
@ Caradoc
"The idea of establishing a proper pricing mechanism for gold assumes that something non-gold will be used to price gold rather than the other way around."
So Caradoc, according to you, if the POG goes skyhigh, there will be no world reserve currency anymore ?
What if there would be a currency that strenghtens under a rising POG ?
White Rose
(8/14/05; 12:29:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 134956)
Three revolutions: Ferdi Lip's speech at GATA's Yukon conference
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/3260
...
Eighth conclusion: Gold and Silver prices will be much, much higher.
Oil prices too. There is not enough gold. Who wants to produce gold and silver as long as prices are held artificially low? This whole manipulation of the gold market has to end. It will end like the London Gold Pool in 1968. Just collapse. The gold pool was created in 1960 by the central banks to keep the price of gold at $35. It could not last. Gold was stronger than the central banks. And gold will also be stronger than the hedge fund boys who are criminally borrowing and shorting stocks of small gold-rich exploration companies just to bring them to their knees.
Only this time the explosion of prices will be more spectacular. The prices will go to the moon. And the manipulators will be hit by a real boomerang. Also, the central banks will start buying in 2006. Nobody will be able to stop that future gold rush. Gold will take its revenge.
...
Smeagol
(8/14/05; 12:26:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 134955)
Ssss...
... ach! that's "insstead", precious.
S.
Smeagol
(8/14/05; 12:24:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 134954)
Okay...
...then isstead of a Gold Bubble, we will jusst call it a Dollar Crater. Sell Gold at the crater floor, buy It on the rim and enjoy the view! ~;-)
S.
Belgian
(8/14/05; 12:15:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 134953)
$-POG bubble...
The price of gold NEVER was in a bubble...and will NEVER be in a price bubble !
This one and only real universal/transferable "- WEALTH RESERVE -" has always been and will remain * underpriced *.
Real "WEALTH" is a priori non speculative under whatever pricing-regime it has to live ! Wealth is lost to the owner, when this owner loses on his non-wealth speculations/gambles.
Goldmetal in possesion is NOT an insurance for/against whatever. Otherwise, goldmetal in possession would be taxed.
Caradoc
(8/14/05; 11:18:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 134952)
@968
If gold goes skyhigh, will it still be "priced" in dollars?
No. And a discount from the price of paper futures contracts will no longer point backwards toward the present spot price. COMEX will have lost that role by lowballing the bid on futures contracts (perhaps to or near zero) while renegging on delivery of physical and offering settlement as cash only.
Between now and then, there will be a period of a few days when Au is still priced in dollars but at numbers that would sound absurd here in August of 2005. My version of the gold bubble starts at $1,642 and goes too high to talk about.
The idea of establishing a proper pricing mechanism for gold assumes that something non-gold will be used to price gold rather than the other way around. I suppose using a basket of currencies like SDR (Special Drawing Rights) would be the most transparent approach, but I'd rather see it the other way around.
I'm off to the mountains to water some baby trees. Will enjoy catching up here later this evening.
Caradoc
Smeagol
(8/14/05; 11:08:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 134951)
Autumn Melt-down?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/baltin081405.html
From an article at yonder Casstle...
The meat:
"The Fed seems to do one of these pump-and-dump operations about every four years. The last was the 2003 51/2% FED Funds drop to 45 year lows of 1%. Previously was the 1999 Y2K credit expansion, which inflated the early 2000 Nasdaq bubble and led to the subsequent crash. The major one before that was the 1992-93 credit expansion, which culminated in the 1994 global bond market debacle. The process of leveraging up the system sends out a signal -- go forth and speculate. Buy stocks, bonds and houses, build buildings, leverage up your holdings. Take no thought for tomorrow. We are in a NEW PARADIGM. Swing for the fences. At some point, the leveraged Ponzi scheme collapses -- either as a result of a Fed tightening -- or it simply topples from its own dead weight of poor ill advised investments (malinvestments). Investment Balloons like trees can't grow to the sky.
Both the Bond and stock Markets, the Real Estate and Commodity markets as well as the Economy are approaching that point. Even though long term interest have fallen and have only recently started to turn around since the FED started tightening over a year ago, it will indubitably be too much Fed tightening that once again upsets the apple cart. There used to be a rule "three steps up and a stumble" well we just had our 10th rate increase and there is increasing evidence of the beginning of involuntary de-leveraging. (The reason that its taking more than three steps before the stumble is because up until this week we were in negative interest rate territory)"
And a gem:
"Remember Money created out of thin air is not Real Capital. When a loan made out of thin air money is repaid it does not go back to the original saver, it just disappears ( gets wiped off the books) and the money supply shrinks."
S.
24karat
(8/14/05; 10:32:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 134950)
@ Caradoc Au bubble non-contest
I've been thinking about this more than I should have.
To answer, I had to figure out what a bubble is. I don't think a bubble is simply being the same as overvalued. If gold was a penny above its long-term mean, it would be overvalued but, in my view, not in a bubble. A bubble could be a rapid run-up in prices, well above the mean, driven by widespread demand. This definition is also too messy.
Instead I decided that a bubble is the point at which I'll start dumping my metal. Now I can answer your question ...but wait! Now I have to figure out the possibility of some major event disrupting the financial markets. After all, I will be less willing to give up any gold if the US joins Isreal in an attack on Iran. Thank goodness I don't have to figure out where the dollar will be then.
Oh heck with it. Put me down for $1800/oz.
If the actual price on 6/06 is $700, do those of us who guessed higher all win? At $700 the bubble may only be beginning to inflate. This would mean that a price above that level would contstitute a bubble and we would all be right.
Thank you for the question. My brain is usually inactive on Sunday.
Smeagol
(8/14/05; 10:32:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 134949)
Bubble-SWAG addendum
Ssir Caradoc "Again, added input... a gold bubble and what if anything you would do about it..."
Sss...if It bubbled up to that point, we would grin and cackle at the paper-shorts twissting in the wind, sell a few PHYSICAL ounces of It to pay down our ssmall (but exassperating nevertheless) remaining debt... sell a few more for cash to hold 'til we hears a >POP!< and wait for the price to come back down (if it IS a bubble the price has to come down leasstways 20-50% from the high, eh, precious?)... looking for any overshoot... and then buy It back to resstore our (tiny) sstash.
(whispering) rissky, rissky, Ssir Caradoc! Don't let Gandalf ssweet-con you into running for Masster-of-POG-Contessts! He almosst had us talked into playing the Horns! (cackle) ~8-)
S.
Dollar Bill
(8/14/05; 10:24:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 134948)
.,.
Pritcho, I live with a few people. Family, but independent people. If some like the red sox, and some like the yankees, and that is the case here, I might, and actually I do proclaim myself not careing because the battles are repetative and fun for some, but the thrill is gone for me, if it was ever there on that subject, and so I play Swiss on it.
The bush/iraq/global warming/whatever, are by now off my list of things that I can spare a sentence about.
Goldilox, Iran and Saudi Arabia really do have a divide between them. That Sunni Shiite division is quite deep. The Wahabi religion of the Saudis is rather blunt in its insults of Iranian thinking that Ali was to follow Mohammed as leader. As soon as Mohammed died, the split happened. So much for Al kida dreams of recreating some mythical origional "pristine unity". It was never there.
Saudis have signed on to the owo. They would never want the iranians to have global shared reserve power. The Iranians are critical of Saudi control of Mecca. They just have real issues between them. Lucky for the world.
I dont know if the owo is best for the world. But is sure looks like it going to have its day to show its stuff.
Goldilox
(8/14/05; 10:06:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 134947)
Iran buying gold
$ Bill, et al,
The problem with Iran buying gold is one of logistics.
In order to buy gold at levels to satisfy a country's demand, a reasonably secure and silent source would be necessary. At these levels it's akin to buying arms.
Second, gold requires storage. If Iran is fearful of attack, where do they store their gold? Do they really "trust" someone else to hold it for them, a la Fort Knox?
We're already heard stories that Euro gold held in the US is "captive" and not available for sale.
There's also the "problem" of the Islamic Gold Dinar. If Western officaldumb is concerned about the proliferation of "viable" coin of a realm, they are not gonna stand by for this plan. With the loudest proponents of the IGD already digging out from tons of Tsunami mud, Iran would need complete cooperation from Saudi Arabia to pull it off, This is not likely while the House of BushSaud is pulling the strings there.
jenika
(8/14/05; 08:31:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 134946)
********$1000.00 Australian dollars*****
My definition of a bubble would be anything that costs more then my perceived value. ie If I looked at a house with a price tag of $500,000 and could only see $250,000 value I would say its overpriced. Its something we do everyday when we shop, if Tbone steaks are $15 each and we feel they are worth $10 they are overpriced. Its our perceived value which is made up via our income.
Just as with gold, a poor person would find gold at $450 overpriced whereas Bill Gates would probably still find gold cheap at $2000.
So with my current circumstances my perceived value on an oz of gold is $1000 and a total bargain at current prices.
PRITCHO
(8/14/05; 08:09:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 134945)
@ Buffalo Bill :)
Your Last Post -- SNIPs:
**"I dont care about any complaints about Bush, I am only interested in economics. He is the face of a faction, and that faction is the owo faction I do believe, and I am just trying to watch the show."
I think the US has played chess, and had luck, or grace, and despite the ugly sides, is about to, or actually just recently did, construct the owo.
-----------------------------------------------------------
What? And have us believe you don't have an opinion? Like you can sit on a fence over this? Bull poo! It's obvious where you're coming from --I just can't believe that you really think it's all OK just because you're an American.
But unforgivingly you believe the US has won?
What trick of your mind leads you to that conclusion?
968
(8/14/05; 07:09:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 134944)
@ Caradoc
In your opinion, if the POG goes skyhigh, will it still be priced in dollars ?
Dollar Bill
(8/14/05; 07:06:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 134943)
.,.
Pritcho, All is well, I do remind you that flashes of hot moments that lead to sentences like -your on meds, or -IF you have a freind-, arent really gold table norms.
Despite that, I trust Madison would have added to his idea about tyranny to include thought police and thought tyranny that comes from factions from left to right in attempts to control the populations voting.
Goldendome, there have been links here at the forum to sites that have credible reports going back more than a year of israel comments about how it will not accept an Iran with nukes. The same reports mention how the US sent/sold israel over 300 missles that are bunker busters.
I guess I just assumed forum folks also went to those links and perhaps some did.
I think I would define -bubble- as, something that is out of natural bounds. I would call gold right now as being in a bubble. In a controlled out of natural bounds state. A controlled bubble. Other ideas of bubbles would be that it is a sign of overinvestment. I dont think gold is a bubble or could be a bubble for that reason, I just did work on the Newhouse home in NJ, they are supposed to be worth 7 billion. I bet they would build the solarium out of solid gold if you could buy gold in really large amounts. The rich folks must trust the level of control by the CB's to garuntee that they wont wish they had eventually.
Ok, the question is, gold bubble price in the next year and a half or so.....If/when Iran is attacked, wont they react in anger at the euro as well as the dollar? They might try to buy gold. I think the big boys have decided that Iran is playing out a nightmare owo scenario, and they will just not accept it Iran trying to build a Muslim reserve currency in some union with the euro. Didnt Iran miss its chance when saddam was trying to do that? Didnt thier previous war with saddam cause them to lose the focus on the big picture enough to see that thier hope of control was if they sided with saddam and the euro before the US broke that union?
I think Iran is too late, and the French vote finished off the EU hopes, and now the mullahs want to do it, but I think the US has promised that the UN will have reserve powers and police powers, if they reform, and France and Germany at this point are more on board that plan rather than a Iran supported order where china, russia and the euro countries support Iran in the hopes that they will be able to control the owo spending more.
I think the US has played chess, and had luck, or grace, and despite the ugly sides, is about to, or actually just recently did, construct the owo. If china sides with Iran, I think it will only be within owo boundries. Meaning, they do have some leeway to act in thier own self interest while not going against owo member limits.
Surely China is not looking to Iran to be a source of purchases of Chinese goods, or a source of food when times get hard. Really, what does Iran have to offer beside an oil card that they recently misplayed? Thier chance came and went. And George Bush played the hand.
I dont care about any complaints about Bush, I am only interested in economics. He is the face of a faction, and that faction is the owo faction I do believe, and I am just trying to watch the show.
ge
(8/14/05; 02:17:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 134942)
Insider selling at major home-building companies
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2005/8/9/170207.shtml
.
Caradoc
(8/14/05; 02:04:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 134941)
Rules for the Non-contest
Thank you, Sir Smeagol!
This is no contest and there are no prizes offered, but -- as our Wizard has often pointed out -- we must have rules. So, consistent with our host's easygoing attitude toward weekend posting, this is a one-day event ending at midnight tonight. Post your entry of what POG constitutes a bubble in standard contest format: ***XXX*** or ***XXXX***. Let's keep it to whole dollars and not sweat the pennies.
To cope with the issue Smeagol pointed out (the possibility of "ssome major world financial 'event'" happening between now and June of 2006) your definition of a POG bubble is in terms of constant August 2005 dollars.
Sir Smeagol, I'll take your range of 1,300 to 1,500 as telling me that 1,500 is definitely a bubble. So, listed in order of decreasing bubble tolerance...
Caradoc 1,642
Smeagol 1,500
Again, added input such as your personal definition of what defines a gold bubble and what if anything you would do about it is more than welcome, but a simple post of ***whatever number*** gets you included in this non-contest.
Caradoc
PS: An ideal opportunity for readers who haven't requested a password to do so. Ditto, a grand time for a reappearance by those who have been too long absent from our company.
Black Blade
(8/14/05; 02:03:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 134940)
World Oil Transit Chokepoints
http://p100.ezboard.com/fpeakoilpetroleumandpreciousmetalsfrm10.showMessage?topicID=1520.topic
Snippit:
Oil transported by sea generally follows a fixed set of maritime routes. Along the way, tankers encounter several geographic "chokepoints," or narrow channels, such as the Strait of Hormuz leading out of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Malacca linking the Indian Ocean (and oil coming from the Middle East) with the Pacific Ocean (and major consuming markets in Asia). Other important maritime "chokepoints" include the Bab el-Mandab passage from the Arabian Sea to the Red Sea; the Panama Canal and the Panama Pipeline connecting the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans; the Suez Canal and the Sumed Pipeline connecting the Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea; and the Turkish Straits/Bosporus linking the Black Sea (and oil coming from the Caspian Sea region) to the Mediterranean Sea."Chokepoints" are critically important to world oil trade because so much oil passes through them, yet they are narrow and theoretically could be blocked -- at least temporarily. In addition, "chokepoints" are susceptible to pirate attacks and shipping accidents in their narrow channels.
Black Blade: Speaking of "oil risks". It would not take much to send global economies spiraling into oblivion should terrorists target a large vessel in one of these "chokepoints". Again, it is imperative to have a portion of your investment portfolio insured with precious metals against the unexpected (or even the expected for that matter).
Toolie
(8/14/05; 01:57:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 134939)
Slingshot
Didn't you promise Another golden tale next rally?
Smeagol
(8/14/05; 01:04:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 134938)
Bubble-SWAG
Ssir Caradoc assks..."What price of gold in US dollars between now and May of 2006 would constitute a "bubble" in gold?"
Nice poser, precious... (exactly when do prices become 'bubble-icious'?)
Fore-cassting is not our forte (and the houndses have been guarding Ssir Gandalf's crysstal ball very well lately)...sss... but we would opine that extending the trend-lines on the Gold-chartses to May 2006, and then tripling that, would result in a bubble-price of... ssay, around US$1200-1500 between now and then... definitely a bubble area (we also thinks houses are currently sselling for about three times what they are reasonably 'worth' as a shelter). Of course, what may be a 'bubble' in dollars may only be a wrinkle in another currency... and if ssome major world financial 'event' happens before then we would add a few hundred more to that.
S.
Goldendome
(8/14/05; 00:52:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 134937)
The Privateer's message on dollar displacement.
Sir Pritcho: your #134930. The message is clear and straigtforward. Thanks for the post. Well worth the read.
Smeagol
(8/14/05; 00:31:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 134936)
"Batteries (Israel) not required for this war"
Ssir Dollar Bill,
(msg#: 134926)
"Smeagol, your link didnt even mention isreal. I cannot figure out why."
Perhaps, precious, Israel is not involved in the US/Iran problem. Israel does what they will do, in their interesst; the US-country does what it will do, ditto... and sseparately. Ssss... corporate power-people don't care about nations and peoples... they only care about controlling resources and continuing their exisstences.
Based on what we SEES, Israel is not a superpower bent on World-domination and Oil-sale-monopoly. Nor do they have troops and bases everywhere, nor is their currency and spending-irressponsibility a matter of world concern.
And if we reads things aright, no earthly power is a match for the One who watches over Israel anyways...
Thankss for the possts, from you and Ssir Pritcho too. My, but we do live in interessting times, yess? Sso much to analyze, filter, ponder! Jusst the facts, please! We watches!
~8-)
S.
Caradoc
(8/14/05; 00:27:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 134935)
Question for those assembled at this table
With gold moving toward its proper pricing in terms of paper dollars, with much talk of bubbles in real estate and other markets, I've got to pose the question: For each of you, what price of gold in US dollars between now and May of 2006 would constitute a "bubble" in gold?
All I'm asking for is your number. Mine is $1,642.
Those willing to include their personal definition of "bubble" and what, if anything, they would do about it will make for informative reading. For what it's worth, my cut is that anything over $1,000 before June 2006 is becoming irrational but for me "bubble" means high enough that I'm obliged to do something about it. At this point, I can't say what that something would be but if the real estate bubble has burst before or concurrent with a gold bubble, some acreage with good water supply and located next to federal property (preferably a national park rather than BLM land) would be a real contender as a store of value for a large fraction of my stash.
There are more than a dozen of you whose responses will get 100% of my attention even if you have time only to post your number.
Caradoc
Goldilox
(8/14/05; 00:10:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 134934)
Corrections
Sorry, I left my good glasses in the garage, and didn't see that my spell-checker commenced mid-message.
euro-basd = euro-based
memebers = members
fissile = fizzle
Goldendome
(8/14/05; 00:07:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 134933)
Dollar Bill, Re- your message #134922
Sir Dlr. Bill: We certainly hope and would think, that no one would be so Stupid or Crazy as to attack Iran at this point. We (the U.S.) and Israel seem to have our hands full right now with other current war matters.
If attacked, could we expect Iran to embargo the one commodity their attackers and the corresponding economies need most: oil? It would seem a reasonable result and would preclude any nation from being an idle disinterested spectator! How high oil prices would reach is anyone's guess, but for sure; a resulting scenario could be devastating for the world economies, particularly if protracted.
Is anyone in government in the U.S.--administration, congress, or otherwise, talking publicly about attacking Iran? I don't think so. I haven't heard them. They are turning this over to the United Nations and the Europeans to attempt to sort out differences at this point if possible; and I doubt that the Israeli's are going to be--or have been given the approval--to be a lose cannon firing the first shot. Short of using the nuclear option themselves, I doubt the Israelis would have the carrying power that it would take to sustain a prolonged attack against Iran, with potential war also lurking at their own borders. The U.S.? Again, short of an ironic first nuclear strike to prevent, at this point, what is a make believe potential nuclear threat, could we carry this forward in light of our last caper into Iraq on false pretenses? with a steadily skeptical and unsupportive public? and if gasoline prices should sky-rocket? A further point: the attack on Iraq was not a sneak attack; it was well advertised. The Israeli's might be capable of a sneak attack, but I doubt the U.S....and were one to occur and it be discovered that the U.S. knew in advance about it's happening--watch out. A political front would quickly develop at home and abroad.
We believe that the U.S. economy is way over extended and headed for increasing difficulty in the future. However, I strongly disagree [if I interpret you somewhat correctly]--with this clandestine, planned out scheme of one world order, that everyone in the U.S. and round the world is going to acquiesce to. Among other things, there is a fierceness of independent spirit throughout the world that has never allowed for that type of melding.
Best, G-dome
Goldilox
(8/14/05; 00:05:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 134932)
Oil Bourse risks
Just a thought, but the euro-basd oil bourse probably changes little for the euro memeber nations, as they were printing euros anyway to buy $ for the middle-man transaction.
There is an opportunity, however, for much more drastic ramifications from Japan and China, who both import a lot of oil, and would no longer "require" the same volume of US dollars. THe CNOOC- UnoCal fissile may stress the importance of this revelation. If US$ are not necessary to China for direct oil purchases, and are chased from the MA market in deals like the CNOOC-UnoCal offer, what good are they to the Chinese? They would have to buy a lot of Boeing planes to even dent that mountain of money.
Or perhaps a LOT of gold?
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