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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 9/14/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

mikal (09/14/02; 23:50:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 85147)
@Blackjack
A better question if I may. Do you think USA will look like Argentina, so we should get a "lucky" coin or two?

mikal (09/14/02; 23:46:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 85146)
@Blackjack
"I'm buying some more Silver Eagles". Good input on Argentina. do you own at least one "lucky French Rooster" (or Angel)?

Blackjack (09/14/02; 23:24:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 85145)
Argentina: Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/2257164.stm
A court in Argentina has ruled that a series of emergency banking restrictions designed to protect the financial system are unconstitutional.

Last December, the government drastically limited access to savings to stop a run on bank deposits, and then earlier this year it converted all dollar savings to pesos.

In strictly legal terms, the issues are clear - in an attempt to protect the nation's banks from collapse, the government decided to fence off people's savings Banking analysts say that if the higher courts confirm the ruling, it could be enough to collapse the entire financial system.

But the government has promised to appeal.

The game of brinkmanship between the courts and the government is the way one analyst described the legal battle over the validity of the government's banking restrictions.

But in this game, he said, it is the future of the entire nation's financial sector that is at stake.

Significant loss

In strictly legal terms, the issues are clear - in an attempt to protect the nation's banks from collapse, the government decided to fence off people's savings.

And to make sure the banks had the capacity to honour those savings, the government ruled that all dollar deposits had to be converted to pesos, a conversion that cost billions in the paper value of those savings.

Finally, the government severely limited the public's ability to get at their money by appealing through the courts.

But now, a court has judged all three measures to be unconstitutional.

It is not the first time the government has lost a case like this, but this one is significant because it was brought by the ombudsman on behalf of all savers.

Impeachment

The government will appeal and, until the appeals process is complete, the status quo remains in place.

But this also seems to be more than just a legal battle. The Congress has begun impeachment proceedings against the Supreme Court over allegations of corruption, and some observers believe this latest ruling is the court's attempt to strike back.

To complicate matters even further, it also undermines the government's attempts to sign an aid package with the IMF.

The fund has repeatedly said it is unwilling to lend more money unless the future of the banking system is secure. This latest judgment just made it even shakier.
________________
This is incredible, just think if the guv would not allow YOU
to take your money out of your bank, AFTER converting it
all to Pesos. AND, the IMF says, hey, great idea. If you don't
do it, no more help. I bet a lot of Argentines wished they
had some gold and silver coins hidden somewhere the guv (or IMF)
couldn't find them! LOL I'm buying some more Silver Eagles.

Blackjack (09/14/02; 22:28:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 85144)
Thanks Goldquest, also found this from a jeweler
http://www.FreeRepublic.com/focus/news/750808/posts
No, a Sterling silver chain should NOT be attracted to a magnet. To be legally sold as Sterling an item has to contain 92.5% pure (fine) silver. It will be stamped either "Sterling," "925" or "92.5." The "92.5" or "925" mark will frequently be seen on items made in Taxco, Mexico, or Bali. But don't buy any magnetic "silver" even if it's properly stamped.

I'm a jeweler and I suspect you might have been looking at silverplate over steel. Plated chains should be very inexpensive and will usually have no marking at all or a simple "silverplate" mark.

You'll occasionally run into items sold as Sterling that are "rhodium plated." Rhodium is a very white metal from the platinum group (osmium iridium, palladium, etc.) and is often plated over silver to prevent tarnishing. Sulphur in silver combines with oxygen and over time yields a black tarnish that has to be polished away. It's often used to artistic effect in certain designs like Navajo Indian jewelry. Often marked "SSRP," this is fine quality jewelry and it won't tarnish. But the rhodium color isn't quite the same as silver.

Sad to say, there are a few unscrupulous jewelers along with salespeople who don't know what they're talking about, just as in any business. Malls and chain stores are not renowned for hiring the best and brightest, and their markups are quite high to compensate for the big rents and overrides on gross sales they have to pay the mall owners. Let me know if you have other questions and I'll try to give you a no-B.S. answer.
____________________
I posted this as a question on a thread and got this from a jeweler
who responded to my question about whether a magnet should
be attracted to a sterling silver chain. Scroll to find the post and
you can ask Bernard Marx a question about silver.

goldquest (09/14/02; 21:36:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 85143)
@Blackjack
http://www.silversmithing.com/glossary.htm
This might give you a little more info.

kasperjack (09/14/02; 21:15:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 85142)
Topaz
Is About To Enlighten US-Thanks in Advance
"The recent "reset" of the trading range from $270/$290 - $310/$320 was purely and simply due to
US$ depreciation vis E/Yen."
No producer buybacks, No Japanese housewives, Nada."-TOPAZ

You remind me of the analysts who unequivocaly provide the daily explanations for market performance. You do know the Japanese Yen is heavily manipulated nowadays. You also should know the people manipulating the Japanese Yen are more concerned with recessitating the Japanese economy than in dictating the price of gold. As for the Euro you could have easily set up a chart comparing the performance of the Euro the dollar and the price of gold. Obviously you have or you wouldn't have used HIS MASTERS VOICE when adressing the peasants. I'd be particularily interested in the your comparative charts for the Euro gold and the dollar for the first quarter of this year. That is the time when the Normandy hedge book received its first major haircut.P.S. They have printed truckloads of fiat dollars and it has no impact on the price of gold. Why is that? I mean to say why are the dollar and the Euro exchange rates not affected by the creation of so much paper. But like you said Gold is good. Regards.

Topaz (09/14/02; 19:57:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 85141)
kasperjack
While no doubt your WGC's, Thompsons, and Burtons are doing a sterling job in their respective arenas - particularly as the investment worlds eye's turns to Gold, NONE of their collective efforts has had/will have any effect on the POG.
The recent "reset" of the trading range from $270/$290 - $310/$320 was purely and simply due to US$ depreciation vis E/Yen.
No producer buybacks, No Japanese housewives, Nada.

Damn pity it wasn't though, one day we may see Physical Gold offtake moving the Markets....Not in the forseeable future imo.

turkey hunter (09/14/02; 19:51:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 85140)
Swiss National Bank
http://www.bis.org/review/r020624d.pdf
Here is an interesting speech given by Niklaus Blattner on the Swiss Economy. He says the SNB are selling 1 ton of gold per day until 1,300 tons are sold. The speech was given on June 14th 2002. Hope the link works.

Waverider (09/14/02; 19:40:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 85139)
Slingshot
You're too much! Wonderful ongoing episode of Siege Engine. And NO PROBLEM....we shall wait for the Chief Hobbit Editor and Gandalf to display the works! And thank you for the CD reference....now this is again very strange...I was dancing to Lorenna McKinnett the night before last, but to a different track. I shall follow your suggestion, thank you. Gotta run, cheers,
Waverider

slingshot (09/14/02; 19:36:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 85138)
Gandalf the White
**********************
Some men thrist for Glory and never recieve it, while others have it thrust upon them.
Slingshot----------------<>

Elwood (09/14/02; 19:35:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 85137)
MK (09/14/02; 14:28:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 85118)
When an option in a futures market is exercised the option holder is assigned a futures contract which is offset by one assigned to the writer of the option. This is how the possibility of delivery comes into the equation.

Regards,
Elwood

Gandalf the White (09/14/02; 19:25:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 85136)
ROFL <;-)
MAKE THAT two CANNONS !
<;-)

slingshot (09/14/02; 19:24:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 85135)
Waverider
Siege Engine
Lady Waverider I regret that I misunderstood you as to having the full story on file. I only have the story on scrapes of paper and because of my ignorance did not save them on my computer. I truly did not think the story would go this far. So I apologise if I mislead you. I thank you for your interest so I will give you something that you will enjoy. If you can find this CD by Loreena McKennitt, The Book of Secrety. Play it when The Dance of the Veils is mention in the story. Track Four. Partake in a Glass Of Wine and Enjoy.
Slingshot---------------------<>

Gandalf the White (09/14/02; 19:21:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 85134)
Sir Slingshot ----My CHOICE ! < ; - )>>
GOLD above US$300. !!!!!!!
I do not know exactly WHY, but I choose the TWO CANONS !!
IF this was not the BEST CHOICE, please do not tell me.
<;-)

slingshot (09/14/02; 19:07:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 85133)
Gandalf the White
*******************************
I give you the choice. Either way you chose will be favorable I assure you.
Slingshot-------------------------<>

slingshot (09/14/02; 18:54:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 85132)
Siege Engine
Gold above $300.00
Gandalf walked between the rows of gold silently. The riches were beyond belief and any other mortal would be wild eyed and excitement would fill his blood. Gandalfs face only grew longer as he could see the gold stolen from those who did not understand its importance. His face was filled with sadness. He turned to Stephen the Great and asked. How do you plan to use these riches if you are to save our people? Stephen the Great could see the concern Gandalf expressed on his face.

We start with a honest days pay, for a honest days work, each according to his skill. We both know this will not happen till we defeat the King with No Name! Come with me Gandalf for I have more to show you my friend.

Gandalf joined Stephen the Great and as they left the vault the doors were closed behind them. They now entered a staircase that desended into the mountain. Soon Gandalf smelled smoke and heard the pounding of hammers. He heard the men giving directions in the movement of an item not in sight. The odors filling the staircase was of coke and iron, but what was the meaning eluded him.

Gandalf and Stephen the Great reached the bottom and entered a room as hot as Hades itself. There Gandalf gazed at machinery never seen before as the workers went about their business.

It was a foundry and well organized. Stephen the Great walked over to and open spot with two strange objects sitting alone.

Gandalf coming closer placed his hand upon them both and asked .What are they?
Stephen the Great answered, The Implements to shorten Our quest. They are called Cannon and no Castle stands before them. They were made long before you arrived. Gandalf, I will give you the choice to use them. One is called DRACO, for the greastest of dragons and the Other Smaug, who you Know well. Their destructive power no man has seen. You will have to tally the loss of life in our battle against the King With No Name, against the power unleashed by these cannon upon the world. Think carefully Gandalf the White, for the weight of the world is upon your shoulders.

Preparations for the traveling show were almost complete, with many plays as possible to allow the time to fulfill the plan. The caravan would enter the castle and when the Moon was high in the nights sky the final act would be performed. The Dance of the Veils would be the Dagger and the Hemlock the Thrust.

The Lord of the Castle was brought before the council in chains. He stood between the guards. Addressing Sir Howe he spoke.

You have been most kind to spare my life. I was once a goldbug like you but the fortunes of life set against me.
I ask that the burdens of my incarceration be lite. Black Blade who had drawn his sword refected the sunlight from his blade into the face of the Lord of the Castle.

Backwardator (09/14/02; 18:44:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 85131)
MK/Steady/Sinclair/Turk
Several observations. One, Sinclair's "RCP model" is just another term for delta hedging. There is nothing to suggest the banks adhere to this program at this point. To claim that at a certain price level the banks will be forced to cover 100% of their notional exposure is pure supposition and betrays a lack of imagination as to what may really be happening. Two, neither this nor anything else that Sinclair has contributed to the debate can fairly be characterized as original. It is sensational, to be sure, but it is all a rehash of material that the real GATA army has put out for years. Three, to mention Sinclair's name in the same breath as Turk's as one of "our best researchers" is to do a grave disservice to James Turk, who has made a number of original and courageous contributions to the cause of free gold. Sinclair's strident commentaries are no doubt helpful in serving to popularize the issues, but should not be confused with original work of the sort that Turk has been churning out for years.

Topaz (09/14/02; 17:48:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 85130)
Treasuries/ Gold.
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CBOT_USZ2&v=d12&w=1&t=l&a=20
Well the Treasuries appear unstoppable now as they drive ever upward into the Abyss - at some point in the near future all those Black-Sholes inspired programs will, in the twinkling of an Eye, automatically institute SELL orders....to NO buyers....and there it will STOP!
The Rich/Poor devide is not more graphically illustrated than right here as "Capital" - painfully aware of the coming Global recession - is content to capture an ever-decreasing yield on "safe" Treasuries.
PaperGold (the Money) SHOULD be dropping in sympathy, and would be if only those pesky Goldbugs would stop buying Metal...never mind, they'll no doubt "reset" the price range late one night when no-one's looking.

Congrats to all recent winners in the Guessing Comp and a big "Thank-you" Gandalf, MK etal.

Blackjack (09/14/02; 17:44:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 85129)
Chapman article on Silver fraud. Lots of "silver" magnetic
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/chapman091602.html
After reading about Brian who checked Wal-Mart, Bells, a pawn store and a Jewelry store and finding that their "sterling" was attracted to a magnet, I went out yesterday and did the same thing. I went to the Richardson Square Mall in Richardson, Texas. I bought a magnet from Sears and went on my journey. First stop was one of those Kiosks called the Silver Mine. Should have been called the steel mine. Anyway, all of the "sterling" I tested was magnetic except one of the smallest chains. Every heavy piece was magnetic. The vendor insisted it was sterling and said I was wrong.

Next stop, Kay Jewelers (Big chain), They sell a line they claim is sterling and is treated so it will never tarnish. One 18" chain was $160.00. All of it was magnetic. The store manager said that he knows for a FACT that it is sterling. I asked him if he saw it manufactured? He said no. Then I said "You can't then know for a fact." Unless he had it assayed. He still insisted it was sterling and wanted me to go away. Off to Zales. They don't sell silver. Next to Bellini Jewelers. This is not a chain. The owner was there. I tested his one flat of "sterling" silver chains and all but one were magnetic. He was indignant that I told him his chains were not sterling and was very belligerent. He insisted that he would continue selling the chains as sterling so long as he bought them as sterling silver. He wanted me to go harass Kay Jewelers because they were bigger than he was. I asked what that had to do with it? He didn't answer. I told him I would contact the authorities. Next to Sears! They had lots of "sterling", about 60% was magnetic. The area manager was very concerned and would bring it to the store manager's attention. I researched this issue on the Web and found lots of stuff.

To summarize, to be called "sterling" in the U.S.A., the piece must be 92.5% silver. However, all references I could find only listed copper as the other alloy. One said zinc but a jeweler friend I talked to told me that zinc would boil off at the temperature it takes to melt silver.

So, there we have it! Massive quantities of "silver" that is NOT SILVER in the stores. It must be tons and tons all across the country. This is unbelievable! What disgusts me the most is that three out of four vendors insisted the chains were silver when the magnetic properties were staring them right in the face! What a massive fraud! Now we know what is supplying the 110 Million silver deficit, steel! What a huge scandal! Where are the regulators that so many of the sheeple trust? I am going to buy a magnetic sterling chain and have it tested. I'll let you know the results. Send the army out with magnets, let's test the world!
_____________
Posted for others to read Chapman article.
Link above.

Blackjack (09/14/02; 17:30:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 85128)
Auto sales to slow in 2003
http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=businessnews&StoryID=1449338
But Wall Street analysts and economists question whether the high incentives will simply steal sales from later this year and next, spurring consumers to trade in their cars or trucks a few months earlier than planned.

"It means strength today, weakness tomorrow," said Diane Swonk, chief economist with Bank One Corp. in Chicago. "You are borrowing from the future. The bottom line is at some point in time, you have some give-back to this."

Swonk said the automakers' interest-free loans coincided perfectly with record low interest rates and a boom in home mortgage refinancing. That allowed consumers simply to switch monthly payments from their house to their garage with the purchase of a new vehicle.

But as mortgage refinancing levels subside, so too will the effectiveness of the zero percent incentives, she said.

After four years of record U.S. vehicle sales, the bubble is about to burst, said Gary Lapidus, an analyst with Goldman Sachs. American's debts burdens are near an all-time high and pay hikes are slowing, which should cause consumer spending to slow next year, he said.

Lapidus cut his 2003 U.S. vehicle sales forecast to 15.9 million light vehicles, down from his previous forecast of 16.6 million. That could make 2003 the weakest year for auto sales since 1998.

"Like a balloon that's harder to blow up as it builds pressure, luring new car buyers is becoming increasingly expensive as America's driveways fill up with ever-more late-model vehicles," Lapidus said in a research report on Thursday.
_________________
Consumer took savings from mortgage refinacing to buy new cars.
Next year consumer spending will slow.

Sierra Madre (09/14/02; 16:43:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 85127)
Who has the gold?

That is the question.

We tend to think that the Central Banks are the gods running the monetary world; I don't see them as gods, but as institutions supposedly working for the public interest, but actually working at the orders of higher-ups.

The Fed for instance, is simply another Enron or WorldCom, but bigger. It is a private corporation, after all. Its owners are other private corporations - banks. The banks may have very diluted ownerships, but there is definitively a most decisive ownership, in the final analysis, for any given bank: it is A man that runs it (a single man may run even a group of banks through interlocking directorships) - whether with very loose reins or not - just as he pleases. All public communication tries to de-personalize the Fed and The Banks, so we won't think of these facts. Corporations have no existence: only flesh and blood individuals exist.

The big shots know what is going on. They know everything we talk about, and much more. They know that the usefulness of the Central Bank system in the world, is coming to an end. Do you doubt that "Kenny-boy" knew where Enron was headed? Or Fastow?

The gold? The movers and shakers are selling it off cheap - to themselves. A few crumbs go to "the public" but they have the money machine, they can help themselves to the gold in advance of the breakdown. The gold is the only Central Bank asset that is going to survive. They are selling off the only good asset in their corporation, the Fed, before it caves in. It's another Enron.

Not all Argentinians got caught with their pants down. Many - the more intelligent - saw what was coming in mid-2001 and sent money abroad. At this Forum gather the more intelligent, who can clearly see but hardly believe what they are seeing. Try as we may to warn others, this GOLD THING is the best test of I.Q. ever devised. All men are not created equal. Some are more intelligent than others.

The guys getting the Central Bank gold - in the hundreds or thousands of tons - are very smart. "Devilishly" smart, is the right adjective.

Let's pick up a few crumbs while we can.

Sierra

kasperjack (09/14/02; 16:41:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 85126)
Roll Over The Hedges If The Price Not right Huh?
Thanks to The Efforts of Profit and Gorilla I Believe http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/milhouse091302pv.html http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/milhouse091302pv.html

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/milhouse091302pv.html
Re: Barrick cant find gold to
cover

One of the risks mentioned by Dr Murenbeeld - one that he quickly
dismisses as not being
important - is included at the bottom of page 16 of the study. Apparently,
Barrick will not be able
to defer delivery into its forward-sales contracts if "the counterparties are
unable to acquire
bullion in the open market or any organised exchange or to fund any such
acquisition". In other
words, if Barrick's counterparties (the bullion banks) are unable, for any
reason, to borrow the
gold needed to facilitate the forward sales contracts, the contracts cannot
be rolled forward.
**************
Murenbeelds recent pro mega hedger company article raised some very interesting information in regard to the process of rolling gold hedges into the future.

kasperjack (09/14/02; 16:29:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 85125)
International Forcasters Chapman On Magnetic silver
With Thanks to Gorilla Stock Led me To The Link

So, there we have it! Massive quantities of "silver" that is NOT
SILVER in the stores. It must be tons and tons all across the
country. This is unbelievable! What disgusts me the most is that
three out of four vendors insisted the chains were silver when
the magnetic properties were staring them right in the face! What
a massive fraud! Now we know what is supplying the 110 Million
silver deficit, steel!
****
Confirmation of the existence of magnetic sterling silver from another source.

mikal (09/14/02; 16:11:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 85124)
Gold certificates
Gold SWAP certificates come to my mind. On the one hand, the gold never left the US vaults, only these papers went overseas according to many esteemed opinions. On the other hand, recent claims are that either half or three quarters OR MORE has been leased, sold, swapped, or used to cover bank liabilities. There is perhaps a critical difference between these two outcomes on the purchasing power of a future unbacked/backed dollar, our future paychecks?

Sierra Madre (09/14/02; 16:04:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 85123)
Mr. Gresham, Sir...

Understanding Treasury reports is not for the likes of us!
But not to worry: Rothschild understands it all prefectly. And that's who counts.
Sierra

Mr Gresham (09/14/02; 15:07:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 85122)
The Ever-Baffling US Treasury Gold Report
http://www.fms.treas.gov/gold/index.html
I can't believe I'm actually printing these out to hold up (June and July) side-by-side to find the changes Groucho noted. Way to spend a sunny Saturday afternoon? No wa-a-ay!

Anyway, I was never especially strong at accounting, but the first thing that jumps off the page at me is: these are not accounting statements. Not double-entry, squared-up, asset and liability balance sheets. (Some of that is over at the Fed's site, as I remember, but I couldn't make much of those either, last I looked long ago.)

The same 250-260 million ounces (about 8000 tonnes?) is reported variously at different points on the June report as: "Gold Bullion" Fine. "Mint-Held Gold > Deep Storage Gold" OK. A little bit more (13m oz) held for the Treasury at the Fed in NY. Very well. And again, finally, as a total: "Total Treasury-Owned Gold"

That looks like it all adds up, basically telling us the Treasury owns 261m oz of gold bullion, held for it at the Mint and the Fed.

The July report shows basically all of the same categories intact, with NO changes in "Gold Bullion" (only in "coins, blanks, misc") or in "Deep Storage Gold" (must take a long time to ride down all those elevators, or unlock all those time-delayed vaults?), or held for it at the Fed.

Only the "Working Stock" showed changes, puttin' out them Eagles, I guess.

But then was added, "Treasury Gold Certificates", in the exact amount of the "Total Treasury-Owned Gold", 261m oz.

Is this a parallel asset to the Gold Bullion already being held at physical locations (the bullion being physical, eh, right?) (I mean, if it was all paper, I could probably fit it in my old filing cabinet over there in the corner, right?)

I mean, Is it an asset, or a liability? A re-statement of the above "bullion", or an offset to it? Why is there such a thing as a "Treasury Gold Certificate"? Questions, questions, questions! (Worth even doing a search on Treasury site for? Naa-a-a-ah, not gonna chase that one...)

And accompanied by a footnote "Note on Demonetization", which says something about easing the daily accounting job of "certificate processing". They say the "demonetized" 100,000 oz. on July 9, 2002. That means the rest of it is still "monetized"? I'm not sure I know what that means, but I'm sure some of us will run with it, down some rabbit hole. It's possible they just throw these terms around?

But it sure sounds like the template for some news which they're trying to break to us "gently". And doing it all in some maddening mix of secrecy and disclosure, the common signature of a bureaucracy that can't keep all its internal memos straight.

And allowing ordinary people like me meanwhile to think two contradictory thoughts at the same time: "This could all just be ordinary bookkeeping process, with a little bureaucratic bumbling thrown in" and "It's all been hocked/sold in deals with LTCM, Enron, JPM, and no one powerful enough has just yet asked them to bring out the books."

MK (09/14/02; 14:43:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 85121)
Gresham, Groucho, kasperjack. . .
Treasury Gold Certificates? Don't remember Treasury ever using that term before. A clarification appears to be in order.

MK (09/14/02; 14:36:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 85120)
Belgian. . .
Are you saying that there is a gold oligarchy holding down the price through paper machinations in order to acquire it in physical form? If so, please elaborate. I'm sure there are many here who would like to hear more.

Mr Gresham (09/14/02; 14:32:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 85119)
Groucho's links
http://www.fms.treas.gov/gold/02-07.html
Just correcting the numbers here while checking into these: the Treasury Gold Certificates show 261,429,273.186 ounces, not 26 million-something. Haven't looked at the other link yet.

MK (09/14/02; 14:28:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 85118)
Belgian, Sector. . .
Giant Japanese housewives?? (Big grin.)

* * * * * * * *

More seriously, I find the Japanese and Chinese situations with respect to gold intriguing. What better way to bring gold into your country with a politically correct provenance than to encourage your citizenry to do it. A strategem? At any time in the future, you could ask that the gold be redeemed against the national currency as a matter of social acceptability (as in Korea during the Contagion.) Meanwhile, how can anyone raise an eyebrow or complain about people exercising their perogative to purchase hard metal? I can vouch for the fact that American and European buyers are "following in the footsteps of giants."

On Nick Leeson -- the Rogue trader: I've always considered that situation to be revealing. Interesting how one individual can take an institution to meltdown through one trading position. I don't think that gold is being manipulated by a single rogue trader. I've often wondered if the gold conspiracy might be nothing more than a group of high level traders passing around the same software as a template for mutual (and possibly legal) action. Could it be that the "conspiracy" was downloaded rather than agreed to in a smoke-filled room? Convenient. Workable. And what would the courts think?

As for the dollar printer, I fear that if the bullion banking community is hoping for the U.S. to act as the LAST lender of last resort, that they will be sadly dissappointed. The U.S. essentially defaulted in 1971. Do those holding any (theoretical or real) U.S. gold paper out there really believe that that might change the second time around? Particularly with Europe magnifying the role of gold as a reserve item (a la Mundell). There's an old maxim that crops up in divorce proceedings regularly: Possession is nine-tenths of the law. I would like to know whose gold it is that's been leaving the New York Fed all these years. One clue I can provide is that most of it has had to be upgraded according to GFMS reports.

By the way, I think that GFMS and WGC figures can be accepted with a 30% fudge factor. I don't think anyone believes them except GFMS and WGC. I do believe there is a gap that has to be filled from sources outside mine production and scrap.

* * * * * * * *

Sector, both your work and WGCs points to a correlation between options volume and the price of gold declining. I have never completely understood how one could establish option positions which would in turn force down the physical price of gold? I am not disputing the notion (in fact would agree that the circumstantial evidence is convincing), just wondering how the mechanism actually operates. I'm sure you've thought about it. Can you give us a straightforward outline how you think they might be doing it?

Mr Gresham (09/14/02; 14:18:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 85117)
Sir Belgian
"How much profits has the past gold-carry already produced for the master manipulators. "

My thoughts exactly. A profit today washes away many a care for tomorrow.

The whole purpose of the American corporate entity is the ability to walk away from a failed enterprise -- and its debts -- with one's personal assets intact (unlike, I believe, the traditional European family firm.)

Belgian (09/14/02; 13:27:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 85116)
@ Sector
Sir, why do we all, permanently, focus on all the ones that will lose when POG explodes ? How much profits has the past gold-carry already produced for the master manipulators.
So, will the final "net" profit be positive or negative when derivative losess will be brought into account ?
Or are the eventual net-losess already "officially" covered with the promess of devaluated dollar compensations ?

And is the only winner the US as the dollar printer ? The gold oligarchy wants to be rewarded with much more than the above described, possible, compensations. At the day of reckoning there must be a very big gold-holder that sees his gold revaluated enormously. Who is the ultime benefittor, rather than the loser(s). What's your idea ?

kasperjack (09/14/02; 13:18:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 85115)
Treasury Gold? What Gold? Could The Fed Have Contributed To WA
Thanks to the Due Diligence of Groucho17
a post from Groucho17 I read this morning. Thanks Groucho.
Whose Treasury Gold
CERTIFICATES?

Need some help here from resident experts :--) Each month check the
admissions of Treasury Gold Reserves...found a new entry that seemed
alarming...July 2002 noted that the total reserves were 26,529,273.186
oz....a new entry has now been added directly below totals it says
TREASURY GOLD CERTIFICATES total is 26,529,273.186 oz...that of
course would be the total reserve...understanding what a gold certificate is
supposed to be am concerned that this is an indication that our whole
reserve is hostage to the holders of those certificates...would appreciate
feedback...first link is July 2002, second is to index to check back over
previous months...regards, groucho
http://www.fms.treas.gov/gold/02-07.html
http://www.fms.treas.gov/gold/index.html

Belgian (09/14/02; 13:10:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 85114)
Sir Kosares # 85110
Please do remember that Nick Leeson was able to hide the cost of carrying his gambles on the Nikkei and brought a 250 years old banking house to its knees. Nick wasn't able to make the Nikkei go his way.

The Gold-derivative players, in contrast, "must" have exagerated their positions (the costs of them) with the guarantee that there was a loyal Gold-deliverer, to fill the offer/demand-gap, going "with" the direction(s) of their gambles. Whether we call it collateral gold or effectively physical for sale, isn't that important. Is it the 3.000 tonnes, forward sold, deeply stored mine-gold or the central bank's gold ? Question is : Is the (are the) Gold deliverer(s) so stupid as we think ? Did this (these) gold deliverers have the intention of destroying the paper gold contract market as TH/FOA/A, suggested ? Is it an official organ (CB) or is it the gold-oligarchy (major fraction within) itself ?

How sure can we be about that famous figure of 1.500 tonnes (plus or minus) shortfall in the yearly physical, offer/demand equation ? Who delivered this statistic (WGC-GFMS) ?

And who is it that will profit massively, once the gold drama has ran its course ? The master manipulator (official gold reserves) having the most of physical in hand or the private goldowner(s), part of the gold oligarchy ?

There must be a known *big* winner amongst us when POG explodes.

The same happens with the derivative positions of those who know where the stockmarkets are heading and exactly when they will do it. Derivatives are not to be seen as normal insurances, with a reasonable cost, but rather as a fine and massive money spinner for those who organise and participate in the betting game. Derivative volume is an indication for this theory. The UN-free, free market. Surveilled freedom of the imaginary free ? The modern trend !

Sinclair's "critical mass" can already have been set forward by those who control the handles of the gold oligarchy. And you know (as does Turk/Sinclair/Schultz) that *gold-oligarchy* is not an idle/vague, word and that it is definable as private Gold holders (Giants).
3.000 tonnes of underground gold is not the kind of amount of regular forward gold, to "stay in business". There is much more behind this than meets the eye. Strong, but maybe complete, wrong intuition, of mine. Wich global industry has derivatized more than its annual production ?

Can you find one stock with a higher amount of shorts than yearly turnover volume ?

The logic of the available statistics is a crazy one. It must be that the gold derivatives are extremely profitable and "sure", repeat SURE ! And it is this that keeps feeding my lilliputan intuition. Thank you Sir Kosares.

sector (09/14/02; 12:51:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 85113)
@MK Throwing in the "Towel"
"I believe that once we understand the derivative as "overhead," we can begin to plot how it is the bullion banks will be forced to throw in the towel".
An excellent observation on the true risk profile of JPM's derivatives. The notional amount matters only as it represents potential VAR [Value-at-risk] loss to JPM and whether that loss can be sustained by the bank.

The risk management committees you refer to have great autonomy within JPM [And all Fed banks] and the current JPM derivatives risk model is very shaky as a result of looming Enron litigation losses not to mention the commodities trends against which JPM has bet. Moreover, the rating agencies [S&P, Moody's] play a crucial role in JPM's financial health of lack thereof. Any further downgrades of JPM will surely tip their derivatives risk models and perhaps precipitate forced liquidations in order to cover exposures. In other words, a credit downgrade is equivalent to a margin call and since JPM is the Mother of all margined houses, they will be hurt badly by another downgrade.

We think in terms of gold. They have huge positions in petroleum derivatives too. Like gold, they are short oil and $30 oil puts them underwater in those derivatives adding to their risk management woes.

Sinclair sensationalizes a bit with his $300,000,000,000 notional derivative arm-waving. He is proper however to envision the failure of JPM as a near-term event.

Most here have not looked beyond $1,000/oz. gold. When that happens, we won't be in Kansas any more.

a nation of one (09/14/02; 11:44:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 85112)
the falling DOW

One thing I consistently see missing -in forecasts concerning our nation's present predicament- is any mention of the tendency, which falling economies have, of accruing severity while declining, on account of numerous types of repercussion necessarily inherent in falling economies. Decreasing stock prices mean loss of wealth (or, as some would say, at least the loss of so-called 'wealth effect,' which, if correctly named, could be called 'blind overconfidence'). Loss of private wealth leads toward reduced private spending and loss of all confidence. That causes people to reduce their purchases and to reduce their willingness to take investment risks. This means loss of business for many different types of companies. The ensuing loss of jobs, and further reductions in spending, are followed by failures of many previously viable companies, and this leads to failure of other companies which before were never in danger of failing. Thus a further loss of jobs. Plus an increasingly intrenchant inability to spend. This is why these things are rightly called 'Depressions.' Positive economic activity is generally depressed. During these times the term 'Recession' is used as an obscuring euphemism, to deny what is really happening. It's like saying the only real danger in flying a plane is landing too hard. That is truthful and correct. But it is a half truth, told of markets for a purpose. Certainly if your wings have fallen off, you still want to avoid a hard landing. But on the way down, we need to at least be able to call it by its true name.

Belgian (09/14/02; 11:11:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 85111)
CRUDE OIL
Tareq Aziz (Iraq), in his answer to Bush's UN speech, says it loud and clear : It is all about oil and more precisely Iraqi oil. This, at a moment, where Silvio Berlusconi (Italy) is visiting Bush with most probably an ENI-mandate (Italian oil company, close Khadaffi friend) to find...common (personal-private) grounds ? !

Conclusion : The oil matter will remain very crucial for a very long time to come. This might be the fatal stumbling block for the US giant, sooner or later. Oil and Gold are related to each other in one way or the other, in the past, now, and even more so, later.

On my recent tour through Euroland, one remarkable fact : prices, many prices, are going up, fast and substantially !
Amen.

MK (09/14/02; 10:56:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 85110)
Steady. . .
Not to pick a bone with either of my friends, Messrs. Turk and Sinclair, but the fact remains that options do not in and of themselves create the obligation to deliver hard metal. They are simply a price bet that will expire either worthless or in profit territory. In either case, they will expire. So from JP Morgan, or any other derivative player's point of view, ownership of the option does not create the obligation for delivery of the metal. So they don't care if they carry 64 quad zillion notional value on their books. All they care about is how much does the position cost them!! The gold derivative is a cost of doing business, like office space rent, or employee salaries, or any other operating expense. In other words, the derivative holder is often prepared to let the option expire worthless (if necessary) and chock it up as a cost of doing business. If the real goal is to keep the price trading within a band in order to keep gold loans from going sour (via the price rising out of the band), then the cost of the derivative is the price one has to pay. Too often, we get the impression that these options somehow create a delivery obligation and in my view this thinking is flawed for the simple reason that this is not the way the derivative players themselves view the position. If someone can connect the dots for me -- or show me what I'm missing here -- I'm all ears.

So the real question to be answered is how much JP Morgan or any other derivative player is willing to put on the books as a cost of doing business (?) -- that's where the trillion dollar figures take on some definitive meaning, not so much in the notional value but in the cost required to carry them. This should be enough for us as gold owners, because true reform is not going to come from the government (although it can play a role) but from the management committees within the banking entities themselves. Add the gold derivative cost (not exposure!) to other gold derivative costs like interest rate swaps, yen carry trade obligations, and the rest of the long list of computer generated trading positions and it would be enough to raise the eyebrow of even the most wayward (once conservative) banker. I believe that once we understand the derivative as "overhead," we can begin to plot how it is the bullion banks will be forced to throw in the towel. I don't know of a for-profit business on this planet that does not constantly play with the overhead -- always tweaking it to improve the bottom line. As this financial market recession progresses, these institutions will be forced to reduce overhead and that will include reduction of these costly notional derivative positions. As the notional position rises so does the cost. Judgements will have to be made in the interest of the financial health of the institution -- particularly as the situation deteriorates (and it's not going to get healthy anytime soon -- something I'm sure they realize.)

Another aspect to analyzing the gold derivative situation along these lines is something I've written about before:

Mr. Sinclair refers to 'critical mass' in derivative trading, and here is where I believe the rubber meets the road, and Sinclair is completely right. There comes a point where critical mass is reached and the entire structure blows sky-high. If derivative positions as an aggregate are indeed rising as so many claim in this environment, then we can assume that the situation is out of control and we are headed toward melt-down. If they are in retreat, then we know the management committees at the money center banks are aware of the problem and trying to control it. The Washington Agreement in my opinion was an attmept by the central banks to rein in the gold carry trade. What hasn't been shown by anyone including either Messrs. Turk or Sinclair (probably our two best researchers) is whether or not reduction in the gold carry trade has brought about in turn a reduction in the gold derivative positions (which are used to control the price.)

Allan Greenspan has repeatedly deferred when asked about regulating the head long, worldwide build-up of nuclear derivatives. For the moment, it will have to come from within, or from a dictation by the marketplace itself.

We await the verdict.

After all is said and done, the real question to be answered after you boil this thing down to essentials is:

Where is the gold coming from to meet the current huge gap between production and demand? Mines have to sell to stay in business, but beyond that WHO is foolish, insane, and/or desperate enough to supply gold at these dollar prices?

********

turkey hunter (09/14/02; 10:44:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 85109)
BIS
http://www.bis.org/index.htm
I was looking at the BIS website this morning and they have a new feature. They now have an email alert system. One can sign up and choose a category such as "gold" or "silver" and any info on those subjects that comes out will be emailed to you. Might as well see what the Bankers Bank has got to say.

steady (09/14/02; 10:13:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 85108)
gold derivatives .......... turk/sinclaire

Dear Mr. Turk:

Please accept my sincere gratitude for your accomplishments on behalf of the gold community. By bringing the truth of what has and is occurring in the gold market to the general public, you have given increased legitimacy in establishment and general investor's eyes to what we have been dealing with for many years. Thank you.

The gold short can be compared to a stock issue in which more shares are old short that all the issues and authorized shares in existance.

Might I add to your arsenal the following factual concepts:

All gold producers of 100,000 ounces on gold per annum have sold short a total of 2.4 years of estimated next 12 months production.

However gold producers of 100,000 or more per year represent only 11% of the total outstanding gold derivatives world wide. Figures found in BIS & IMF quarterly & annual reports.

Total world gold derivatives on the books of all reporting commercial & investment banks depending on method of valuation are IMF & BIS 280,000,000,000. I believe the figure of $300,000,000,000 is more accurate but the difference is small in percentage terms.

The means by which notional value of a derivative may become real market value is Risk Control Program software which is utilized by all arbitrageurs wishing to remain solvent.

As an arbitrageur and past owner of arbitrage dealing firms as well as a clearing house, brokerage firms, NYSE member firms, trading firms and well respect metal dealers I understand the logic of Risk Control Program software.

At gold $305 and rising, RCP software begins calling for gold purchases to maintain the risk factor of gold derivatives at the risk percentage of the original assumption of the position.

At $354 the RCP software will call for one ounce of gold long for each ounce of gold short for the entire world position of gold derivatives.

At gold $354 that means on the $300,000,000,000 of gold derivatives the demand for gold would equate at today's gold price to 900,000,000 ounces of gold or above 20 years production assuming the rate of gold production remains at the present levels which is not expected. At the modest declining rate of production now predicted by the industry the short position at gold $354 is therefore 24 years production.

If we are to accept the figures of central banks of what their gold inventory is, the total gold owned by all the central banks of the world is 856,000,000 ounces. However, central banks do not publicly account for gold leased because all leases expire in one year from the day of granting and it is assumed the gold is returned therefore leased gold is not deducted from the gold inventory of central banks. Therefore at $354 and rising, RCP software will call for the purchase of 900,000,000 ounces which is a demand for gold beyond the world supply of gold. A logical market impossibility.

Your statement that the industry of gold derivative financing is short 4 years of production then is not correct. At present gold short of the gold derivative position is 24 years production. As gold rises the short become active loses and require gold purchases to avoid total bankruptcy of the gold derivative industry, demand will outrun world total supply. This gold derivative situation is therefore is the Mother of All Short in market history. Even the cornered short in "Piggly Wiggly Stores Inc." on the New york Stock Exchange engineered by Jesse Livermore in the early 1900s was not short more stock that the total capitalization. The gold short can be compared to a stock issue in which more shares are old short that all the issues and authorized shares in existance.

Please reexamine your statement that the short of gold is only 4 years production.

97% of all gold derivatives are unlisted:

That means they are:
1.Unregulated

2. Not listed on any formal exchange.

3. Not clearinghouse funded.

4. Totally dependent on the balance sheet of the grantor for financial integrity.

5. Non transparent.

6. Without standard trading so closure cannot be made at will.

7. Dealers are commonly not the good name commercial or investment bank holding companies but rather subsidiaries of these good names which at not guaranteed as to trade debts.

8. 69.4% of the total derivatives on all types of assets of $72,000,000,000,000 are on the books of US institutions.

9. JPM alone holds 25.5 trillion of all types of derivatives or 35% of the world total. A 1% loss would cost them more than their liquid capital position.

When asked for his opinion on Unlisted Derivatives Warren Buffet categorized them as SEWAGE.

Respectfully submitted,
James Sinclair

Gandalf the White (09/14/02; 10:02:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 85107)
Sir Cometose's Praise
Cometose (09/14/02; 09:38:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 85105)
==
THANK YOU Sir Cometose, BUT I can not accept credit for those wise words. That post was a REPOST from the 2nd Happy Birthday Contest, and was written by one FAR wiser than I !!
The Hobbits and I are looking forward to the upcoming 4th BD Essay contest to see MORE "deep thinking" from the wise.
Like someone said "WE shall watch together, YES ?"
<;-)

a nation of one (09/14/02; 09:59:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 85106)
Is anyone surprised that the Chinese have acted only in their own interests by failing to import US cotton products?

Does this have anything to do with the reason they don't give their children names like 'Sally' and 'William?'

Cometose (09/14/02; 09:38:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 85105)
GANDALF THE WHITE/ POST 84170
Would to GOd that our hopes and dreams are attached to stars on distant horizon that ever give their light and never fail...and that the human condition you described in unknown author's question "What suprises you about mankind" is emancipated by finding light to walk in the rainbow's hue by hanging our hopes on eternal values. When we live our lives putting these values first , it will bring a new day of light and greater hope from heaven down to earth.
Will hope and therefore the human condition be edified geometrically if we spend our Good Will in this way.
Might this also become a working social engineering program benefiting mankind without the help of the aponsorship of the money multiplication escapades of the Federal Reserve....???
Thank you Gandalf for your wonderful and insightful post.

Gandalf the White (09/14/02; 09:35:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 85104)
Thanks Sir MAX -----SOOOO the WINNERS are:
Sir Wiley will win the one half ounce Maple Leaf.

A one-tenth Austrian Philharmonic goes to the three contestants listed below:
Sir Wky_Woodsman,
Sir Max Rabbitz,
and Sir VanRip

ALL Winners should confirm their snailmail mailing ADDRESS to Jill via email to:
jill@usagold.com
---
PS: to Sir Max Rabbitz --- PLEASE send back my Crystal Ball ASAP. You can see that I need it!!
<;-)

misetich (09/14/02; 09:34:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 85103)
Al Fulchino
Wouldn't disagree with your half full/empty - and indeed we are more fortunate than the rest of the world -

It is about leadership - of the only remaining superpower that is being challenged worldwide -

It is about the leadership of the free market system that is being challenged and questioned - such as market intervention, suppression schemes - as most believe in the gold market -

Success achieved thus far was built on a far superior platform of ethics and values than has been carried out in the last 30 years or so

The gambit of the last 10 years is being challenged - US dependent world is in uncharted territory -

The financil pyramid - yes worldwide - is crumbling - however it is those at the top that have more to lose as their standards of living will drop severally

The buyers and holders of physical gold will benefit in this turbulent times

Max Rabbitz (09/14/02; 09:13:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 85102)
Gandalph
I accept !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Gandalf the White (09/14/02; 08:59:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 85101)
EXPLAINATION of Prize Determination & message to Sir Max
Gandalf the White (09/12/02; 12:16:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 84966)
"The Happy Birthday GOLD PRICE SETTLEMENT CONTEST"
===
The FINAL Listing is as setforth on the last message.$$$$
---
Gandalf the White (09/12/02; 11:47:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 84965)
<snip from "FINAL Listing">
---
318.6 $$$$ Kodie (09/03/02; 12:41:26MT - msg#: 84222)
$$$$ 318.5 $$$$ Broken Tee (09/11/02; 12:50:41MT - msg#: 84829)
$$$$ 318.4 $$$$ donnemuir (09/12/02; 10:20:12MT - msg#: 84945)
$$$$ 318.3 $$$$ Max Rabbitz (09/10/02; 16:13:39MT - msg#: 84755)
$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ Wky_Woodsman (09/12/02; 11:19:14MT - msg#: 84961)
$$$$ 318.1 $$$$ wiley (09/11/02; 13:14:39MT - msg#: 84830)

$$$$ 317.9 $$$$ VanRip (09/05/02; 12:20:50MT - msg#: 84415)
$$$$ 317.8 $$$$ RobertG (09/12/02; 10:34:31MT - msg#: 84948)
$$$$ 317.7 $$$$ Boilermaker (09/12/02; 10:25:59MT - msg#: 84946)
---
All can see that Sir Wiley hit the BULLSEYE and that only one person had a value within +&- on $0.1 of that WINNING Price. THEREFORE -- the RUNNERSUP determination had to look at a value within +&- $0.2 of the WINNING PRICE, and THERE we see TWO entries TIED for that Level ! SOOOOO, instead of a exact price winner and two RUNNERSUP --- we have one exact price winner and THREE RUNNERSUP !!
THEREFORE, Sir Max Rabbitz, YOU ARE A RUNNERUP !!!!!!
OK ? AND, Official Rules do not allow a WINNER to "not accept" the PRIZE ! ( I just made that RULE up ! )
<;-)

misetich (09/14/02; 08:43:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 85100)
Portfolios: Strategists Eye Commodities As Stock Loss Hedge Sep 13 / 13:55 EDT
http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/popup_frameset.jsp?banner=mainwire&disp=single_story&sn=1&ts=1031939700000
Snip:

Adam DeChiara, a vice president at AIG Securities, said "the name
of the game is real assets, real diversification."
..........
Instead, Bianco said "I think the divergence is because the bond
has a problem and that is because it is completely mesmerized by
stocks," noting an approximate 90% correlation in movement of the
10-year note to the S&P.

Bianco anticipates the CRB to take out the October 2001 peak of 235
to 240 and to make new multi year highs. He said this would "gain more
retention," for commodities as an asset class.
**********
Misetich

Physical Gold - Real asset - Real Money - It has withstood the test of time

Got gold?

sector (09/14/02; 08:42:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 85099)
Roach is right, but there's so much more...
...to the story
It's the DEBT Stupid!

Bubbles are popping because the faked earnings, fraudulent business plans and outright conflicts of interest at the Fed and on Wall Street have created a mountain of debt all throughout American business land.

Unserviceable Telco, NASDAQ 100, DOW, debt have occurred as a result of malinvestment urged on by the Fed itself in it's head-long rush to paper the World with fiat.

As the lead firms run out of tricks to hide this unperforming debt and finally run out of liquidity fuel, they resemble a squadron of planes running on empty.

Finova, the lead plane in the lead squadron, failed and fell, then one-by-one the others are following. Enron, Global Crossing, Xerox, soon Ford, Motorola and other big name debt-laden companies. They all gorged on the Fed's free low-interest basically free money, implemented absurd business plans based upon warped ideas and sold then to greedy banks with ridiculous forecasts.

Motorola's Iridium tops the list of brain-dead ideas. A $3500 cell phone that, by definition could not penetrate to the transceiving satellite upwards through building steel. We could have a top ten contest of other bozo ideas.

General Motors' unfunded pension sits there attached to their corporate body like a giant leech sucking what little life there is left in Detroit. Ford is a dead man walking over Explorer roll-over litigation. Take away the free money from the Fed and the whistleing-through-the-graveyeard housing industry and auto sector falls by Christmas.

And the Fed itself has gorged on its own derivatives "invention". With JPM circling beyond Pluto's orbit and carrying $24 Trillion in derivatives "fuel" accumulated at a ten-fold leverage to competition, the Federal Reserve's big bank is beyond saving...like a mutated super guppy aerial tanker on fire. The attacking Enron litigator "fighters" pumping 20mm rounds into it's fuselage.

Out of fuel planes falling. Fed bank tankers burning in space...Nothing can save them.

The alien debt monsters cannot be stopped.

Max Rabbitz (09/14/02; 08:32:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 85098)
Gandolph
Thanks for your efforts on the contest. I much enjoyed it but I can not accept a prize I didn't win. I get enough reward from reading the posts here and would rather support the site then take anything from it or those who assist it.

Al Fulchino (09/14/02; 08:23:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 85097)
Who are we?

It just as easily be said thus:

Who are we?

Gov't Subsidies that cause trade disputes with the US,
Disagreement with the US on attacking a terrorist Iraq,
Subterfuge against the US regarding Georgia, Iraq and Iran and the Middle East in general as well as in Cuba, Vietnam, and North Korea to preserve their own needs,
Disagreement with the US over a free Taiwan,
Arab League posturing to the US while coddling US enemies at their own home and abroad,
AN OPEC that would bring us to our knees if they could,
Providing world wide terrorism,
Opportunists who would and do seek the same foreign debt financing,
Disagreements over a Palestinian state as well as a Jewish homeland,
Worldwide overvalued stock markets,
Worldwide overvalued currencies,
Worldwide flat to no growth economies, all usually ones that rise with the historical tide of the usually lifting US economy,
Worldwide bubbles created out of everything from tulips to cabbage patch dolls,
Investment banks, the Rothschilds, South African and Dutch(?) Diamond cartels,
Ballooning deficits and corruption in countries worldwide,

The rest of the world?!

Yes protect yourself and loved ones with gold,
Who am I? A person who does see our glass half full and sees that in comparison with the world we aren't all that bad.

misetich (09/14/02; 08:20:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 85096)
Credit Bubble Bulletin, by Doug Noland
http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Credit+Bubble+Bulletin&content_idx=15381
Snip:

There are some very major developments now impacting the U.S. and global financial system. On the one hand, extraordinary U.S. financial sector expansion creates excess liquidity throughout the financial system. On the other hand, the unfolding dislocation in the global "risk" market nurtures heightened risk aversion with faltering demand for risky assets. Key global financial players - including the major U.S. money center banks, Wall Street firms, and European insurance/financial conglomerates � have been impaired by boom-time lending errors and heavy speculative losses. There is, importantly, also the issue of frothing attorneys and the astronomical cost of settling lawsuits for asbestos, Enron, WorldCom, and the like. We believe the major risk players will for some time have no alternative than seek to pare risk, not add to it. This will be a major, ongoing development with profound ramifications for the US Credit Bubble.
*********
Misetich

Following the footsteps of giants

Got gold?

sector (09/14/02; 08:10:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 85095)
US cotton growers crying foul over China
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1031119323986&p=1012571727102
By Edward Alden in Washington
Published: September 13 2002 23:01 | Last Updated: September 13 2002 23:01

Of all the US interests that applauded when China joined the World Trade Organisation last year, few were more enthusiastic than American cotton growers.

China, the world's largest clothing producer, consumes nearly a quarter of the world's cotton. The US agriculture department predicted that exports of US cotton to China would increase by more than 60 per cent by 2005 once China removed its trade barriers.

But less than a year after China finally joined the WTO, cotton growers are at the head of a growing pack of disgruntled US interests claiming they were promised much more than China has delivered.

In a letter last week to Robert Zoellick, US trade representative, the National Cotton Council charged that China had used the WTO accession agreement "to further increase its cotton textile exports to the United States while shielding its own industry from competition".

The complaints are an early sign of friction in the US-China trade relationship, despite the landmark decision last year to bring China into the WTO.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Is anyone surprised that the Chinese have acted only in their own interests by failing to import US cotton products?

They will act also in their best interests when push comes to shove in gold.

Carl H (09/14/02; 08:10:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 85094)
Reuters: Which Retail Sales Data Is Right??
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=580&e=3&cid=580&u=/nm/20020914/bs_nm/retail_sales_dc
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Is somebody out there using fuzzy math?

Retail sales figures for August released on Friday by the U.S. Commerce Department ( news - web sites) painted a picture of an economy being lifted by consumer spending. But, just last week, retail companies issued same-store sales data, also for August, that were weak and seemed to contradict the government data.

The disparity left market watchers scratching their heads this morning -- especially when placing bets their on how the stock market would react.

--- SNIP ---

Now who do you belive -- the goverment or the companies actually selling the products...

Got Gold?

misetich (09/14/02; 07:32:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 85093)
Global: A Post-Bubble Chronology -Stephen Roach (from Paris)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20020913-fri.html#anchor0
Snip:

That's because the modern-day US economy -- the world's growth engine -- is now sputtering as never before. Enter the second building block to this chronology -- America's post-bubble business cycle. The basic message is that post-bubble shakeouts don't end quickly. To me it's like peeling away the layers of an onion. Nasdaq was the first layer to go, followed by IT and then telecom. But there are still more layers to come off this onion. They include the dollar bubble, the property bubble, and the biggest bubble of them all -- the American consumer.
*********
Misetich

Roach has been right on for some time now -

Got physical - get gold!

misetich (09/14/02; 07:18:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 85092)
Russia angered by U.S. sanctions move
http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20020913-044410-7687r
Snip:

MOSCOW, Sept. 13 (UPI) -- Russia cried foul Friday, condemning as baseless a decision by the U.S. State Department to impose sanctions on three Russian enterprises over alleged sales of military equipment to countries the United States says sponsor terrorism.
..........
"Military-technology cooperation between Russia and these states is absolutely legitimate, and it is of a highly limited character," said Boris Malakhov, a Foreign Ministry spokesman who defended the Russian firms.
.........
Spokesmen at all three Russian companies denied any illegal sales, with the Rostov-based firm declaring the sanctions a "hostile move directed against Russia."

The deputy director of the Tula Design Bureau, Vasily Gryazev, accused the United States of trying to sideline a competitor in the lucrative international arms market. The firm is Russia's second-largest arms exporter after state arms company Rosoboronexport, the official Itar-Tass news agency said.

The decision to impose sanctions had been made by the Bush administration three weeks ago but was announced Thursday night.

Washington has been particularly concerned with Russia's continuing cooperation with Iran and Iraq, particularly Russia's participation in the construction of a nuclear power plant for Iran at Bushehr.

The United States fears Iran may gain access to sensitive technology for its nuclear arms program, while Russia maintains the Bushehr plant is a commercial project and that all safety precautions have been met.

Moscow has long-standing, close ties with all seven states the United States has accused of sponsoring of terrorism, and has exported arms and shared military technology with these states in the past.
*********
Misetich

Who am I?

Trade disputes with Europe
Disagreement with Europe on attacking Iraq
Disagreement with Russia on Georgia, Iraq, Iran, arms
Disagreement with China over Taiwan etc
Disagreement with Arab League, Saudis
Disagreement with Opec
Fighting worlwide terrorism
Dependant on being financed by foreign debt
Disagreements over Palestine state
Overvalued stock market
Overvalued currency
Flat to no growth economy
Housing bubble
GSE's overextended
Investment banks enormous derivative exposure
Ballooning government deficit

The world superpower(?!)

Got gold?

misetich (09/14/02; 06:54:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 85091)
CSFB Analyst Suggested Dodging New Industry Regulations
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A15073-2002Sep13.html
Snip:
NEW YORK, Sept. 13 -- Credit Suisse First Boston technology analysts were worried, internal e-mails show. The firm was about to endorse new Securities Industry Association standards that could make it harder for them to be paid from investment banking fees.
...........
Internal e-mails suggest that CSFB analysts were concerned about the proposed standards. Elliott Rogers, CSFB's head of technology research at the time, told his analysts not to sweat it.

"To assume that the SIA statement is going to upset our applecart is not correct," Rogers wrote in a June 12, 2001, e-mail obtained by The Washington Post, assuring his troops they would still be paid in part based on investment banking fees. The SIA rules would not "change our compensation one iota, nor our bonus pool."

The e-mails shed light on the subject of investigations by the Securities and Exchange Commission and state securities regulators: the independence of analysts at large, diversified financial services firms. Investors lost billions of dollars when many of the companies promoted by Wall Street collapsed. Many investors have filed arbitration claims and lawsuits alleging that they were fraudulently misled by analysts.
...........
Quattrone quickly chastised Rogers for putting such potentially controversial words in an e-mail. "Caveat emailus," Quattrone wrote.

"Thought it went only to you," Rogers replied.
*********
Misetich

Investment bankers, banks - conflict of interest - more than a few bad apples in the bushel

Got gold?

misetich (09/14/02; 06:39:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 85090)
France Struggles to Ease Debt of Phone Company
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/09/14/business/worldbusiness/14FRAN.html
Snip:

PARIS, Sept. 13 � The morning after France T�l�com was supposed to find the cash to lighten a crippling $70 billion debt load, the French government woke up with a hangover.
*********
Misetich

Telecom industry pulling global economies, insurance companies, investment bankers into the abyss

Got gold?

misetich (09/14/02; 06:26:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 85089)
Europe Threatens Trade Retaliation
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/09/14/business/worldbusiness/14TRAD.html
Snip:

BRUSSELS, Sept. 13 � The European Union threatened again today to impose sanctions of up to $4 billion on American imports as it published a list of potential products for retaliation if the United States does not scrap a tax break for its exporters.
..........
Misetich

Ongoing disputes between the world economic superpowers -

Got gold?

misetich (09/14/02; 06:08:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 85088)
Lucent Plans to Eliminate More Positions
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/09/14/technology/14LUCE.html
Snip:

A Lucent spokeswoman declined to provide figures for the cuts and said the company would elaborate on its plans on Oct. 23, when it discusses quarterly financial results. Analysts expect the company, which is based in Murray Hill, N.J., to cut about 5,000 to 10,000 more jobs, leaving the work force at 33,000 to 38,000 employees, down from a peak of more than 123,000 two years ago.
Lucent also said its sales would fall 20 percent to 25 percent this quarter, contributing to an expected loss of 45 cents a share.
********
Misetich

As US Treasury O'Neil has been saying the RECOVERY IS HERE - hate to see O'Neil's definition of a recession

Telecom woes continue - expect ANOTHER round of job cuts - reduced spending - falling revenues - reduced earnings - bond defaults

Got gold?

Spartacus (09/14/02; 06:01:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 85087)
Argentine court rules conversion of dollar deposits into pesos illegal
http://www.forexnews.com/outgoing/link/wraphead.asp?loc=http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?x47296106

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) -- Argentina's Appeals Court handed the government another setback Friday, declaring a January decision to convert bank deposits from dollars to pesos unconstitutional.

The court also declared that the nine-month-old partial banking freeze introduced by the government of former President Fernando De la Rua was illegal, as was current President Eduardo Duhalde's decree stopping savers from filing lawsuits for six months to recover their money.

Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna said the government would appeal the rulings to the Supreme Court.

The ruling could hamper an agreement with the International Monetary Fund that Duhalde wants. --

misetich (09/14/02; 05:43:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 85086)
Greenspan Throws a Curve at Old Folks: Caroline Baum -Without the various CPI ``fixes'' over the years, which have depressed reported inflation, core inflation (excluding food and energy) is running at 3 to 4 percent, Carson calculates. ``We'd already be in a stagflation period if we didn't change the measure of prices.''
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Caroline%20Baum&touch=1&s1=baum&tp=ad_topright_bbco&T=markets_fgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_bbco&bt=ad_bottom_bbco&s=APYDguxWyR3JlZW5z
Snip:

New York, Sept. 12 (Bloomberg) -- With an 0-and-2 record in his last two at bats, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan stepped up to the plate and bunted.
.........
He also fired the opening salvo in the government's effort to close the gap between revenue and future liabilities; specifically, benefits for Social Security and Medicare.

Curve Ball

``All possible policy solutions should be on the table,'' Greenspan said of the government's burgeoning liability as the baby boomers start to retire. ``Recently, the Bureau of Labor Statistics introduced a new index that could provide a more accurate measure of the cost of living for the indexation of both retirement benefits and tax brackets.''
..........
With the release of the July consumer price index in August, the BLS introduced a new ``chained'' CPI, which does away with a fixed-basket approach to measuring inflation and instead allows for the substitution of lower priced items for more expensive ones.

Some 30 percent of all government expenditures have a cost-of- living adjustment attached to them, so the new index, if approved by Congress for that purpose, would have a material effect. The old CPI rose 1.5 percent in the year ended July compared with a 1.1 percent increase for the chained CPI.

Foul Ball

It was the large budget deficits of the early 1990s that prompted the previous CPI retooling. The Boskin Commission, which was charged with examining the overstatement in the CPI, reported in 1996 that the index exaggerated inflation by 1.1 percentage points.

``From a policy and statistical standpoint, inflation is being kept down,'' says Joe Carson, an economist at Alliance Capital Management. ``But underlying pressures are going to build.''

Without the various CPI ``fixes'' over the years, which have depressed reported inflation, core inflation (excluding food and energy) is running at 3 to 4 percent, Carson calculates. ``We'd already be in a stagflation period if we didn't change the measure of prices.''
..........
Wild Pitch

With the broad monetary aggregate M2 growing at a 9.3 percent annualized rate in the last 13 weeks, it's hard to understand the deflationary fears.

To be sure, uncertain times may encourage the public to hold higher money balances. What happens when people decide to start spending again? Unless the central bank drains the excess liquidity, higher inflation will be the result.
..........
Precious metals funds have been the best performing mutual fund category year to date, according to Morningstar Inc. The next best performing fund group -- the only other one with a positive return so far this year -- is real estate.

``It's no coincidence that all the stocks that are doing well have a hard asset behind them,'' Carson says. ``Inflation isn't visible in the CPI, but commodity-type producers are doing well.''
*************
Misetich
Caroline you ain't seen anything yet - CPI index is a fraud- designed to rip off pensioners

Get physical - get gold!

Got gold?

misetich (09/14/02; 05:30:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 85085)
J.P. Morgan's Fraud Claim in Mahonia Case Is Rejected
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APYJczBTESi5QLiBN
Snip:

New York, Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) -- A federal judge dismissed J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s claims of fraud against 11 insurers, dealing a setback to the bank's effort to collect $965 million for losses on gas and oil trades with Enron Corp.

The insurers, which guaranteed trades between a bank entity, Mahonia Ltd., and Enron, refused to pay when the energy trader filed for bankruptcy, saying the deals were shams designed to hide loans to Enron. J.P. Morgan alleged the insurers knew the trades were a form of financing and fraudulently induced the bank to use surety bonds even though they knew such bonds aren't permitted for financial transactions.
..........
``We're very pleased,'' said Stephen Cozen, a lawyer for Federal Insurance Co. ``I believe it will shift the focus to their behavior rather than the behavior of the sureties.''
............
The insurers won an earlier round in the court battle in March, when Rakoff refused a request by J.P. Morgan to force immediate payment on the bonds. Rakoff said the insurers had presented enough evidence that the bonds ``were the product'' of fraud to schedule a trial.
***********
Misetich
JP Morgan loses ANOTHER round - ANOTHER nail in the coffin - The focus indeed should be on the investment bankers behaviour -

Got gold?

Black Blade (9/14/02; 03:47:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 85084)
US market set to fall another 30%, warns Bennett
http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsPackageArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=DCHCEEHZJ2OGYCRBAEKSFFA?type=fundsNews&storyID=137876

Snippit:

LONDON (Citywire) - John Bennett, a leading fund manager at GAM, has added his voice to the chorus of bears with a gloomy prediction of another 30% fall in the US market in the next few months. Bennett also says the fall will drag down UK and European markets by up to 25%. This aggressively bearish view comes after John Muresianu, who quit as manager of the �1.2 billion Fidelity American fund (See Fund Fact Sheet) in June to set up his own hedge fund, reportedly predicted the Dow will fall to as low as 3,000 points. Bennett said: 'I believe stockmarkets are going significantly lower and there are still double digit declines to come.'

Bennett said: 'Valuations in the US are outlandish and as expensive as they were in March 2000 because earnings have collapsed. If you strip out the bubble period, the US market is the most expensive it has been in history. 'Historically, this is not where bear markets end with the darlings of the bull market still on multiples of sales of anywhere between four and eight times. This is where the semi-conductor and technology stocks still are. 'The Dow will reach 5,000-6,000 before this bear market is over. The Nasdaq will fall to 800-1,000 and the S&P 500 index will hit 500-600 points.' This collapse, according to Bennett, is likely to lead to a 20%-25% fall in European stockmarkets, including the FTSE 100 index. He said: 'The problem is that during this next leg down Europe may fall harder than the US because of forced selling by insurers with high exposures to equities.'

Black Blade: I agree, no argument here though he may be a bit optimistic.

kasperjack (9/14/02; 01:45:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 85083)
Correction
500,000 ounces for L NOT 5 Million OUNces

kasperjack (9/14/02; 01:43:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 85082)
Downunder
Last Point
A promise was made to eliminate a hedge book. Gold was trading in the $270 or so to $285 or whatever range when the promise was made. The ongoing buyback campaign inspired one other major gold miner and undoubtedly some speculators to follow suit and therefore gold prices were driven higher. Ergo the hedge book assumed a negative mark to market value. The last published number for the end of the second quarter was in the neighbourhood of NEGATIVE $350 million dollars. To close it out would have bankrupted the the company. Promise abandoned due to miscalculation of the effects of a hedge book reduction by the management. Period. I've had a few scraps with managements in the past. Keep after all managements. We need to clean up and smarten up the boardrooms in more ways than one. On L you may be right and you may be wrong. I noticed they have joined the hedge reduction binge. 25% I believe was their target. Thats in the neighbourhood of 5 million ounces.....

Waverider (9/14/02; 00:42:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 85081)
Congratulations
To Wky_Woodsman also...well done! Gandalf, you make all of this sooooooo....much fun!

kasperjack (9/14/02; 00:29:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 85080)
Burton Assumes Office On Oct 1.
G Day for Gold Before The End Of The Year
Patience let the guy take up his position.

By year's end Mr Burton will
present a detailed and cost-effective overall strategy for the promotion of gold. More details will
be
released in due course.

"I am thrilled with the opportunity to help bring gold to the greater attention of the world's
markets," said
Mr Burton. "I have spent a tremendous amount of time during the past several months examining
how I
can be most valuable to the investment community in this next phase of my career. I am
convinced that
the Council's new focus offers me that opportunity.

Black Blade (9/14/02; 00:18:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 85079)
Bleak Prospects, Say CFOs
http://www.cfo.com/article/1,5309,7690,00.html

Snippit:

CFO optimism about economy at lowest level since December; most don't see recovery until at least Q2 2003. After a cheerful forecast of an economic recovery three months ago, CFOs are once again concerned about future financial prospects at home and abroad. In fact, CFOs are the most pessimistic about the short-term prospects of the U.S. economy since December of last year, when the recession gave them good reason to be gloomy. According to our Global Confidence Survey of U.S. finance executives, 58 percent of those who responded say their attitude toward the domestic economy in the next year is either "concerned" or "very pessimistic," up from 19 percent in the last quarter. So just when do they expect things to brighten up? Not too soon. Only 16 percent expect a broad recovery to begin this year. Another 35 percent expect the recovery to begin in the first half of next year, while 29 percent say it won't start until the second half of next year. And 20 percent aren't looking for things to get a whole lot better until -- yikes -- 2004.

Black Blade: these are the guys who are supposed to know how these industries are performing. This is a "grim" assessment. However, I believe that there will be no economic recovery this year or even next year. The equities markets remain grossly overvalued, debt levels are at all time records, bankruptcy filings are on the rise, the government deficit is growing again, energy costs are rising, meaningful consumer spending aside from zero percent financing and housing is practically nonexistent, the "Bone Pile" continues to grow in spite of the best efforts at the BLS to massage the data, etc. It should continue to get "interesting".

kasperjack (9/14/02; 00:16:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 85078)
Downunder
Normandy Hedge Book
As of Dec 31 2001 was a press release I posted many times over back in Jan-Feb the Normandy hedge book stood at 9.9 million ounces on dec 31 2001.. At the end of the first quarter the Normandy hedge book was as stated in their acquirers quarterly report stood at 7.3 million ounces of which the acquirer claimed credit for a 300,000 ounce reduction. Thus 2.6 million ounces were wiped off the Normandy hedge book in the first 90(2.3 million ounces in the first 60 days) days of this year. I suspect the entire 2.6 million ounce offload was made at a ZERO SUM effect on the bottom line. After that offload the bulk of the remaining portion of the hedge book couldn't be unloaded without incurring a loss;The remaining hedges were for the most part underwater. Note The biggest SA gold producer slowed down its hedge reduction pace at the end of the second quarter when it to came up against the underwater portion of its hedge book. Lassonde spoke of biting the bullet on the underwater hedge book at the recent diggers and dealers conference. Gold immediately leaped upward and rumors carried in the wsj stated that a prominent Canadian hedger was the culprit behind the hedge close out news. Since then another Canadain mega hedger closed out over a million ounces of calls at A LOSS of about $2 million. And a small SA company closed out about 140,000 ounces(?) AT A TWO MILLION DOLLAR LOSS just the other day. That Lassonde mentioned the close out of underwater gold hedges and the wgcs hopes of creating investment products that would consume somewhere between 500 tonnes and 1000 tonnes of gold per year in the same speech MERITS SERIOUS Attention. P.S. I posted a piece on the wgc efforts to advise some asian central banks on increasing the gold in their central reserves earlier tonight.

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