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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 4/14/2001 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Max Rabbitz (04/14/01; 19:07:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 51892) Happy Day http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1600640700&tid=hgmcy&sid=1600640700&mid=1020 In honor of the presence of our distinguished guest I just picked up 200 Kroners of gold....that is...back when Kroners were Kroners. Yes, I know, this was a self-serving gesture.I am still somewhat torn in regards to retaining gold mining stocks and hold some MDG, HGMCY, GOLD, AEM and DROOY, in that order. Today I learned that MGMCY shares were diluted 10% as part of a Black empowerment program. The shares were sold at a 6% discount to the market price and the money used to reduce debt. Not so bad. However, this is a reminder of what governments can do when big things go wrong. lamprey_65 (04/14/01; 19:07:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 51891) Paper Rally Overdue ($290 minimum - Best Guess) Latest COT report extremely bullish,POG chart bullish,Gold fundamentals increasingly bullish,Dollar now coming under pressure from Wall Street(more rate cuts, please!) and U.S. exporters,Gold stocks in an uptrend since Nov '00.Yes, of course - I hold physical as the ultimate insurance.Sorry for not speaking in riddles.Out until tomorrow.Lamprey Elwood (04/14/01; 19:04:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 51890) Mr. Gresham If I am a buyer, why would I want the price to go up?Regards,Elwood Mr Gresham (04/14/01; 18:44:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 51889) Another Welcome. I am happy that you have joined us here.Is there a reason for your return at this time?We who read here generally buy the coins, one ounce and less. The "Giants" you speak of are usually buying the large bars (100 ounce?), yes? Is there a limited supply for them to get, and only through the large brokers with their "private wealth management" programs?Such that anyone trying to convert large numbers of dollars too quickly would be very visible to others, and would be "punished" somehow by reduced allocations later. Is there an allocation system now by which this transfer is happening, or is it really "all you want to buy" and just not many of the wealthy are seeking it now?I am trying to understand why this knowledge you bring is not being acted upon by some others with "deep pockets", such that the markets would be moved, or shortages occur, even before the dollar is seen in weakness. Elwood (04/14/01; 18:09:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 51888) Econoclast (04/14/01; 16:19:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 51882) During periods of little or no inflation gold is plentiful. During periods of high inflation gold is scarce. Thus the saying, "gold is a barometer of inflation". Some may misread it as meaning "the price" of gold is a barometer of inflation because they are under the impression that inflation is "rising prices". ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) (04/14/01; 18:08:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 51887) Thoughts! To this USAGOLD Forum and Mr. Kosares, good evening.Thank you FOA for your time and work.We talk once again my friends. This forum, it grows strong for all ages and nature of peoples. Read they do, from all places on earth. I read and see the knowledge as written, but it be the knowledge we still must see that speaks with greater strength. Walk the gold trails of my good friend, do I. On my feet are "strong sole" of thick leather, purchased with much knowledge of physical gold. These shoes not go bare before our journey is done. On trail I see your "thin sole" gold investments cast aside and scavenged by beasts. Their owners walk no more as these investments took not this hard road of dollar transition. Many more will wear paper gold wealth thin before this walk be done. Only physical gold will see sun after this storm.Some say dollar strong and holds much value still. It bends not and is strong and worthy. I say their vision is limited to see only post supporting roof. Not what on roof already or what must be placed on roof. When new Euro currency is done, full weight of dollars will return as your wet snow. In that day, we check curve of this good post, not before.Some say dollar buys much gold and is strong in metal. I say, paper gold be not metal! We have more dollars than gold in world. As long as your system works, you sell gold to gain real dollars and we sell dollars to gain real gold. All be well in your world and mine, yes? Soon, dollar return in bank and Euro return in bank be equal, no? More later, dollar return become even less than Euro. Tell me about your paper gold value then, my friend. Perhaps, dollar then seen strong in this lesser gold only. You think long and hard on this before end of year? I think Euro buy much more oil then. We shall see. I will return often now. Discuss our future then.We watch this new gold market together, yes?Thank YouAnother Elwood (04/14/01; 17:52:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 51886) Mr Gresham (04/14/01; 17:37:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 51885) "Wrongway Corrigan"? ;-) Mr Gresham (04/14/01; 17:37:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 51885) Self-contrarian investing: (Warning! Label for "Ironic Humor - bitter" content) BTW, a poster at bearforum.com, Robert Moore, has maintained a "Crash" oscillator showing a chart of the frequency of the word "crash" appearing in posts on that forum. It has acted almost as a perfect (contrary) predictor of trend tops and bottoms in recent months. And these are a bunch of pretty smart guys, too. (Just like us, hee-hee.)In the absence of some statistical measure of content here as an emotional barometer among gold advocates, I'm taking our recent quiet here as a similar indicator of a bottom.Of course, through the years, my own investment decisions have been an almost perfect contrary indicator on their own. As I can't fade my own actions by not doing them, the only way I figured out to profit from my own wrong-wayness was to publish "The Corrigan Report" and inform paying subscribers of my latest commitment of funds, so that they might profit from doing the opposite.(Kind of "The Onion" of investment letters? How would Hulbert rate me?)Haven't gotten around to doing that project yet. So, does that mean it would be a good investment for YOU to do it while I'm not? But then, you'd have to quit if I started... Black Blade (04/14/01; 17:26:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 51884) Random Thought I was watching a program on television that described the mess in old Spain during the reign of King Philip. I began to reflect on how things haven't really changed as far as the aristocrats are concerned. I made some comparisons between the Spanish Grasshopper and the Californian Grasshopper in the broadest sense. In the sixteenth century, King Philip of Spain was the leader of the richest and arguably one of the most powerful nations on earth. Gold flowed into Spain from newly conquered territories from the America's to the Philippines. Within a few years, however, Spain found itself bankrupt. How did this happen? They had a steady flow of gold coming to into Spain. Quite simple really. Like today's politicians, King Philip had no concern for fiscal discipline. He spent freely on public works - the equivalent of today's social programs. He supported the arts and supported several artists. The royal collection included many of El Greco's and Breutel's works. Being a faithful catholic he spent freely on acquiring land for the church and building huge buildings decorated with frescos. He never encouraged building an industry because of the belief that with such a large income of gold he could buy everything that his country needed. For his military he bought equipment from abroad. In short, Spain could buy what it needed and there was no need to produce. With the huge influx of gold into Spain, other countries raised their prices on goods and services (inflation). Spain soon found itself self bankrupt. How is this different from the US? The US is a producer, however, it is becoming more of a net importer. The state of California is one of the world's largest economies and yet has demonstrated the folly of depending on others for it's most critical needs. The utility-energy crisis has come home to roost. Californian politicians have always thought that the rest of the nation would serve as an energy farm to provide them with cheap energy. They never built power generating plants over the last 12 years and denied exploration and production of new sources of hydrocarbons. They never thought to take responsibility for their own needs and they depended on others to provide those needs. We see once large powerful corporations such as PG&E reduced to bankruptcy. Now the crisis in California threatens neighboring regions by drawing on the available energy supply of other states. Rates are increasing in the rest of the western US. Now another storm is brewing on the east coast. New York will be hard pressed to meet it's own energy needs this summer. They just might just squeak by if they are lucky, however, it may require drawing heavily on the excess power generated in neighboring Pennsylvania. Like the Wall Street analysts and the Investment Banker who says that "it's different this time," we learn that it really isn't - History does repeat time and again.- Black Blade Mr Gresham (04/14/01; 17:07:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 51883) Econoclast: semi-econo-rant (not particularly aimed at you) Real world. By the end of your post, I was thinking "Have WE been living in the real world all these years?" It's certainly been a strange one, even if it is by definition "real", since it is the only one we've got.I'm sure you know that as Inflation was the Crisis of the 70s, it was clear to governments that the best solution was to shoot the messenger, gold, and the hit squad got behind that grassy knoll and did their civic duty, quite well.Economics was originally entitled "Political Economy". Perhaps they should have left the title alone.I guess Adam Smith and the others were preoccupied with the issues of mercantilism and the East India Company, and other things the national government was concerned with aiding or preventing.After the extremes of the Keynesian era, we all learned more about markets in the 80s than we had in the entire post-depression era. We saw the logic in their operation, and the potential beauty of their balance and theoretical truth-telling. Maybe we started to believe that markets were really in control of our world? It was a nice picture, anyway, and definitely worth learning as part of one's overall picture. Correctible with doses of "reality", of course.Government and other powerful monopolistic entities mess up that theoretical loveliness, don't they? Markets and their players end up being tiny little mammals running around between the giant reptiles' legs. Until they win in the end, long after most of the individual mammals have been crushed or died after lives of fearful scurrying (geez, is this guy a pessimist or what!)Sounds from earlier reading like economic maximizing through markets is not what runs daily life in Japan, even though they hit the world as a powerhouse for awhile in the 80s.On this near-April 15th date in 2001, I can tell you that the tax-spend-and-elect system in the USA shows that people are not pure economic maximizers here, either. The comfort with authority overhead is strongly instilled in the "land of the free and home of the brave."They are willing to hoist those stones to build Pharaoh another monument, march Napoleon another army into Russia, and place another Maginot Line in space -- all for what? To avoid taking responsibility for their own adult lives? Staying a child to some dysfunctional authority saves so much effort, excuses so much laziness and wasted time. Some day my kid is going to roll out one of her killer one-liners and ask me "Daddy, where are the grown-ups?" And I'll be ready with not much but a big sigh. Econoclast (04/14/01; 16:19:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 51882) The Golden "Truth"of the Financial World -- "Gold is a barometer of inflation"is in my opinion a complete inaccuracy/outright falsehood completely disconnected from reality. Any financial analyst/advisor that ever said that to me would see my back walking out the door real quickly.What world is that true in? Not this one.The gold price (in $) is basically the same as it was in 1979. Can anybody that makes a living in the financial world, tell me with a straight face that there has been no inflation for the last 22 years?When the dollar was tied to gold, an ounce was fixed at $20.67 or whatever. In 1933, the fix was changed to $35 where the price of gold stayed for almost 40 years.The reality that I see is that gold MIGHT have shown some positive correlation with inflation for some years between 1973 and 1996... I don't know.If it did show some positive correlation even for all those years (which it didn't), that is still only about 1/5 of the twentieth century.So my question is where did this huge fallacy (gold is an inflation barometer) even come from? And Why?It is a completely inaccurate statement and has no connection with the real world! ET (04/14/01; 15:39:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 51881) FOA Hey FOA - good to see you back. I've had some rather one-sided discussions with Randy recently in your absence. Perhaps you can answer several questions I've had concerning this upcoming transition. You write;"Every day that the ECB marks gold to the market, it says that; "when the market for gold is free of the forces ofdollar management, it's value will be marked to the market ----- whatever that value may be and independent ofthe Euro currency's use and position in the world"!"FOA, I'm having great difficulty with this concept. What market does the ECB intend to mark gold to? The free market doesn't seem to be an option, if I understand this correctly. Are we talking about another paper version of gold or gold itself? Randy led me to believe the marking of gold to market would be done in a similar fashion as the current daily London fix or in other words, the paper gold market. Is this how you understand this? What is to keep the ECB from pulling the same nonsense that got us in this mess in the first place?"Indeed, by inference, the value of oil also be marked to market through gold. Slowly, the world shifts on it's axis, my friends.We must not be blind to this change."Do you mean the "price" of oil will be marked to market through gold? I'm not following you here."It is as we pointed to; the different nature of the EuroZone economies, diverse social management and attitudestowards gold values, will eventually support that nation block in the mists of a crushing US downfall. Within thetotal dynamic of this economic transition, physical gold values will return to a level where they will once againrepresent the "wealth of nations"."Frankly, I'm having great difficulty with the concept that European socialist bureaucrats will "fairly" value physical gold. Their track record so far can only be called dubious at best. What would be their motivation to do such a thing? They have traditionally been behind the great fiat-money explosion as they also prefer money for nothing like their American brethren. When the American currency collapses taking the American economy and all others with it, how does the ECB expect to avoid this great reckoning? Indeed, they may have a currency, but they would appear to be headed towards the same credit deflation as the rest of the world, thus lording over just another bankrupt region. Further, if what you describe is indeed on the horizon, why doesn't the ECB make their currency redeemable in gold? This would appear to be a much simpler solution and avoids any arbitrary price fixing.As always, thanks for your contributions here. Mr Gresham (04/14/01; 15:33:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 51880) Markets I wrote some thoughts a couple of weeks ago, and I think it was based upon recalling Oro's mention of "crowded trades" a couple times. It also may be the reason why gold does not take off, based upon traders' knowledge of what may lie ahead for the dollar and debt markets. They take market depth for granted, and assume that they can all get out simultaneously.Nothing profoundly new, just my inexperienced picture inviting updating:As we try to to figure out the inflation/deflation question, so we see the markets in a quandary, pondering all their old signals. (Are there any old financial people left of the generation that took gold as an inflation signal?)All the old arbitrages are balancing precariously on a thin market structure that cannot fill the sudden shifts that all expect to make, once they get the clear signals they are looking for. Musical chairs always assumes taking one chair out at a time, not nine out of ten.Not only will the initial trades be crowded, but the markets will stop as bidders withdraw to wait certainty, at least of market functionality.The superstructure of paper/derivative contracts is subject to questioning in a dollar meltdown (Doug Noland) as major counterparties suffer a daisy chain of potential impairments. This is Greenspan's bottom line -- prevent the self-fulfilling market-freezing loss of confidence in markets clearing.The absence of markets is the Surprise that most players just cannot factor in, so they don't. Since most of them are employees of large firms, they cannot imagine the loss of their jobs, or, if they do, they think "well, I'll just go home -- it's not my money lost." For those who are trading their own assets, they had better think more imaginatively... Mr Gresham (4/14/2001; 14:50:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 51879) Trail Guide "First there is a mountain, then there is no mountain, then there is" goes the Zen saying about the stages of realization.Sounds like you're talking about "First there is fiat (taken for granted by public at large); then there is no fiat (despised as you learn about unbacked Fed money creation and fractional reserve, etc.); then there is fiat. (After you have a comfortable reserve of physical wealth, you can use fiat in its proper trading, not saving, place.)Question: Are the fiatgold bugs who play Comex games a significant part of the paper world, compared to LBMA? And aren't the LBMA contracts mostly the big players (banks, mines, brokerages) doing their high-wire balancing acts in world finance?Or is it just that, while you may be referring to a small portion of the paper market, they could crash it by some of them shifting to physical?Why don't the gold analysts we read elsewhere speak of this magnitude of change that you do? Are they just too close to the daily markets? Stuck in their "jobs" as they've always done them? Weren't in on the oil/Euro discussions? How private were those discussions, and how "secret" could they remain from a world of inquisitive (or maybe not so) analysts?Does it take getting to a certain level of philosophical outlook to put this all together? Few of them are willing to let themselves think in such a totality as you do, of course at the risk they feel of being called totally wrong if they depart too much from the crowd.There are times -- rare, it's true -- when the total view is the only one that explains enough to be worth listening to, eh? I guess we've decided to take our chances on that.Why don't some European commentators mention the drastic departure you see ahead? They have their own doubts about Euro unity? Too close to the daily grind, themselves?Are there Euro founding documents or working papers that project the gold role/effects of the gold reserve/marking to market functions? In most financial transitions, these issues are studied to death and written upon by "learned" economists by the dozens. Or did the Fed hire them all over to work here? (smile)Thanks for sticking your neck out, in our company. It'll be fascinating to see what you bring next... justamereBear (4/14/2001; 14:17:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 51878) Peter Asher A PS I realize that most people at the forum want a simple answer, and I do not think a simple answer exists. Sorry.j'Bear Gold Trail Update (4/14/2001; 14:10:15MDT - Msg ID:51877) The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates. Belgian (4/14/2001; 13:52:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 51876) Waw, what a load of great posts ! The diversity and different angles under wich everything is investigated on this forum, must lead to some kind of conclusion on Gold. I'll make an attempt.The dollar has become extremely vulnerable. The past 5 years of reborned strength was NOT related (proportionately)to the SM bubble.Have a look at what happened at the SM-crash at the end of 1987 ! The dollar had already made its ATH in '85 and was already at its low when the SM crashed its (Fib.)38%.Conclusion : the dollar (index) is living a live on its own and is only marginally connected to the SM-valuation.All fundamentals mentionned on this forum who are acting as a negative for the dollar have culminated in a gigantic wedge on the 20 years USTB-30yrs IR chart ! The recent high of 6,75% is top on the 20 year old Resistance line of the declining IR ! I want to stress this significant and crucial crossing point, again ! If USTB30 breaks this 6,75%/7% decisively...we know what will happen to the dollar and do agree that the new decline will be dramatic ! (Stranger-Barrons).POG will originally compensate the dollar-decline and once the 350$ is pierced decisively...POG (Gold) will start a live on its own. It will disconnect from the dollar and go for the ultimate search of its adjusted Value.350$ is also a crucial TA-point in a 13 year decliningchannel from the 500$ high in 1988, wich was at the same time a high of 10% in the USTB30. I am not trying to make things fit into a wishfull thinking. The whole picture just seems to correspond with the comments and dept evolution on this forum. I continue to look out for inconsistancies in my conclusions.BB giving evidence of energy-threat and social security pyramid. Netking remarking the Ag Dome-extreme. Paul van Eeden's just in time reduced mine output. Beesting and the Japanese Funds. Tree in the Forest and credit overextension.Solomon and japan affecting the USA. etc...etc...A declining dollar will stop (and reverse) a lot, or even all, forms of unproductive "carry trades". Declining dollar + rising IR, will be the revenche of the battered currencies and GOLD. It were those beaten up currencies and their hard working owners who provided us with more and more upograded manufactured products at an overvalued dollarprice that gave us the illusion of Deflalala.It was the perfect masking of intrinsic inflalala from postponed dollar-depreciation. Sorry for ridiculising infla/defla/stagfla with the lalala nonsense. The reason is that these 3 so called economic events are ridiculising themselves through not considering the one and only dominating "CONSTANT" of *DEPRECIATION* !!!! It is an absolute *TABOO* to mention this confidence undermining Depreciation ! The anomalies here extensively described on the forum have never been challenged for their logic and truthfullness.Tought for Beesting on his Japanese Funds : it is impossible to invest or accumulate substantially (Trillions $) into physical Gold. The Physical market is a dwarf,and extremely well balanced. I've done some math on this before.Once any Fiat-mountain dares to seek refuge in physical...POG reacts furiously. That's why accumulation in physical must be done with extreme discretion. And the gold-derivatives are (was-?) therefore a perfect smokescreen for heavy buying (WA-tonnes). It took me quite some time to realise this high probability, because I'm lacqing the sufficient minimum of grey stuff. Don't blame my mom for that USAGOLD, please. justamereBear (4/14/2001; 13:50:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 51875) Peter Asher 51864 It would seem that there is no simple answer to what I see as a very complex question about the Japanese , just as I believe that there are many complexities about the US situation, which make it impossible to apply any model to the existing situation in the US and the rest of the world, and get a simplistic, and definative answer. There is no doubt in my mind that the Japanese thought that the US did not do things "the properly way" (as my wife used to phrase it) during the 30's. They were determined to not make some of the mistakes that the US did then. Well it appears that the Japanese way is not the properly way either. One, important in my mind, factor is the existence of external factors, not included in the rather simplistic theories. IMHO, the US survived much longer than it otherwise would have, by exporting inflation and dollars to Japan, thus negating much of the efforts that Japan made, which indeed might have worked in isolation. Much of the strength implied by the high savings rate was sucked out of Japan by the rest of the world, if only in the Yen carry trade. People loved borrowing anothers substance at a zero interest rate. IMHO much of the failure of the Japanese model appears to have been exacerbated by, particularly US, financial interests. Whether it would have worked successfully is a very open question, but in my mind, their strategy should have worked much better than it did, and I can only find external factors as the cause. The global village.Old timers such as yourself will recall I liken the situation to the situation existing in the medical world. If one considers the medical proceedures available in the 30's, people died from rather simple causes. Heart attack, etc. Medicine, as economics, has progressed greatly since that time. Today, if you can get to the hospital quickly enough, it is a 97% probability that you will survive a heart attack. People live longer, but they still die. Today they tend to die of more complex causes. Heart attack, lungs, liver AND the heartbreak of psiriosis,(sp)all togeather. I think the old models are not directly applicable. (They only seem to work as part of the solution) Technology advances, all by themselves have changed the equation greatly. Yes, you can and will die from a heart attack, particularly if you do what they mostly did in the 30's. Wait to see if you recovered. Yes, you will still die eventually. But the daily putting off of the inevitable has been greatly helped by modern advances, in both medicine and economics.As to the savings habits of the Japanese, and the Nikki's drop, quite a large percentage of the used savings accounts AND the stock market as savings vehicles. That is not to mention that banks are essentially concentrators of money, and what that money is used for when the banks lend out the money does not seem to enter most peoples minds. (ie. the banks take a number of small deposits, and make one larger loan) I think many were caught for the same reasons that people are getting caught today in the Nasdaq. Humanity does not seem to have changed much, but the world we live in has. Yes, the whole orient is incredibly fatalistic. Prayers at the local temple are largely only about sending me good luck, not much more specific results, such as send me a new car. And they do tend to have very few rebels, and do follow the accepted authority, so long as it is clearly THE authority. Take Chinas various dynasties. They worked quite well, until it became doubtful as to who THE authority was, and then it was chaos. BUT, the people still had faith in, and abided by the system. This is how we get strong leadership. Only if the leader is strong enough, and smart enough to fight his way to the top, is he capable of being a strong leader. Some truth to that, but the collateral damage seems high.I am going to be very interested in Solomons take on your questions.j'Bear JMB (4/14/2001; 11:52:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 51874) BLACK BLADE http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm In your #51838, The Social Security Pyramid Scam and the Alleged Budget Surplus, you lamented the removal of the National Debt Clock in Times Square. IMO, the removal of that clock was "encouraged" by the Clinton Administration inorder to keep the average citizen "in the dark". The clock was funded by a wealthy private citizen.The above link may be of interest to you. Old Yeller (4/14/2001; 11:29:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 51873) Perpetuating the myth ,better known as funding the CA deficit http://www.dismalscientist.com/todays_econ/te_040401.asp When pressed into a corner regarding the massive US current account deficit,Mr.Greenspan,as well as other Fed spokesmen,usually cite the positive investment advantages of the US over competing locales.They had better hope that articles such as this don't receive widespread coverage. IronHead (4/14/2001; 11:16:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 51872) Black Blade - RE: Holden Mine Clean Up http://www.fs.fed.us/r6/wenatchee/news/newsmain.htm Hello Sir Black Blade - Regarding our former discussion of the "nasty" side of mining, I found an interesting link which addressed the Super Fund clean up operation at the former Howe Sound mine, now owned by Intalco Corp.The link shows the by-product of mining operations, as done with older, not so "friendly" methods, which can yield much more than just our beloved precious metals. Clip <<About 8.5 million tons of mill tailings were placed on National Forest Systems lands, near Railroad Creek, covering approx. 90 acres.>>No mention of the "possible" recovery intentions for the gold, silver, and copper within the tailings; but a nice look at government subsidized mining clean-up operations.Salutations,IronHead Peter Asher (4/14/2001; 11:12:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 51871) Double click compulsion syndrome Sorry Mr Gresham (4/14/2001; 11:07:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 51870) Doug Noland -- Credit Bubble Bulletin http://216.46.231.211/credit.htm Lots about ECB holding firm on rates vs. Fed's ease -- parting of the ways? Which one do you think the Bear will eat?Peter -- On the micro level, I'm seeing clients with their capital losses coming out of last year (after paying taxes on the mutual fund distributions of "profits" other people harvested). Double Owwie!Going through this year, we'll be trying to figure out ways to generate capital gains profits to use up those losses since they'll be tax-free for that amount. 'Twill be hard to do in the kids' accounts, I imagine... (Imagine being 12 years old and having enough capital losses to carry you through your teen and college years... Heck, I had a paper route -- is it the same thing?)(Imagine telling your kid he now owns 20 K-rands in a box at the bank down the street, waiting for POG-Day-Afternoon? NOT!) Peter Asher (4/14/2001; 11:03:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 51869) Belgian (4/12/2001; 1:47:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 51752) Very fine post there, with which I totally concur. You said in part >>My 2 cents scenario : the world has become too big and diverse, that a global panic is almost excluded. I don't see a global collapse of any kind. But rather, a slow and continuous shift into *Change*. Controlled iceberg-collisions, with hermetic compounds that can be freed from icewater. Money-pumps waiting for renewed global economic expansion.<<The following article is relevant.Boeing: Tech Workers in Short Supply Saturday April 14, 9:37 AM EDT By Chris Stetkiewicz SEATTLE (Reuters) - Boeing Co. (BA) can not find enough skilled workers to complete all the high-tech projects across its sprawling aerospace and defense empire and is looking to outside partners for help, its technology czar said on this week. At a conference on U.S.-Russian cooperation in the information technology (IT) industry, Boeing Chief Investment Officer Scott Griffin said the search for experienced workers has taken it to several countries, including Canada, India and Australia. "We don't have enough IT professionals. We are always out searching. We actually have more work than we have people to do it," Griffin told Reuters on Friday. Seattle-based Boeing has sought help -- particularly from Russian firms -- in high-tech fields ranging from software development, compression and maintenance to systems integration. "People understand the Web (Internet) and wireless are in great demand," Griffin said. "We are not an IT company. We don't want to be an IT company. We want to buy from the best and brightest IT companies." Steady job cuts among Internet businesses reeling from a collapse in technology stock prices have helped Boeing pull in more tech workers, but a shortfall persists, he said. "I think the shortfall will always be a problem," Griffin said. "We lost a lot of people to dot-com businesses. Many of those people are calling us and checking to see is there a chance." "But I'm not sure you'd say the (dot-com) bubble has burst. The bubble is smaller," Griffin said. "So there are a lot of folks who are looking. We have picked up some really good people locally." Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Boeing's neighbor in nearby Redmond, Wash., has picked up much of the IT slack for the aerospace giant, as have other U.S. tech titans, including Texas-based Dell Computer (DELL), Griffin said. "We are probably Microsoft's biggest customer. We are certainly one of the top three. We are one of Dell's top customers," he added. But Griffin reserved his warmest praise for the Russian visitors, noting Russian scientists, despite poor funding and substandard facilities, had helped Boeing reduce costs on airplane assembly and assisted in high-speed, high-altitude flight testing.Belgian (4/12/2001; 1:47:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 51752)Very fine post there, with which I totally concur. You said in part >>My 2 cents scenario : the world has become too big and diverse, that a global panic is almost excluded. I don't see a global collapse of any kind. But rather, a slow and continuous shift into *Change*. Controlled iceberg-collisions, with hermetic compounds that can be freed from icewater. Money-pumps waiting for renewed global economic expansion.<<The following article is relevant.Boeing: Tech Workers in Short Supply Saturday April 14, 9:37 AM EDT By Chris Stetkiewicz SEATTLE (Reuters) - Boeing Co. (BA) can not find enough skilled workers to complete all the high-tech projects across its sprawling aerospace and defense empire and is looking to outside partners for help, its technology czar said on this week. At a conference on U.S.-Russian cooperation in the information technology (IT) industry, Boeing Chief Investment Officer Scott Griffin said the search for experienced workers has taken it to several countries, including Canada, India and Australia. "We don't have enough IT professionals. We are always out searching. We actually have more work than we have people to do it," Griffin told Reuters on Friday. Seattle-based Boeing has sought help -- particularly from Russian firms -- in high-tech fields ranging from software development, compression and maintenance to systems integration. "People understand the Web (Internet) and wireless are in great demand," Griffin said. "We are not an IT company. We don't want to be an IT company. We want to buy from the best and brightest IT companies." Steady job cuts among Internet businesses reeling from a collapse in technology stock prices have helped Boeing pull in more tech workers, but a shortfall persists, he said. "I think the shortfall will always be a problem," Griffin said. "We lost a lot of people to dot-com businesses. Many of those people are calling us and checking to see is there a chance." "But I'm not sure you'd say the (dot-com) bubble has burst. The bubble is smaller," Griffin said. "So there are a lot of folks who are looking. We have picked up some really good people locally." Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Boeing's neighbor in nearby Redmond, Wash., has picked up much of the IT slack for the aerospace giant, as have other U.S. tech titans, including Texas-based Dell Computer (DELL), Griffin said. "We are probably Microsoft's biggest customer. We are certainly one of the top three. We are one of Dell's top customers," he added. But Griffin reserved his warmest praise for the Russian visitors, noting Russian scientists, despite poor funding and substandard facilities, had helped Boeing reduce costs on airplane assembly and assisted in high-speed, high-altitude flight testing. Boeing currently employs between 50 to 100 engineers and technicians in Russia, he added. "The Russians have been tremendously helpful in introducing us to the great minds of Russian aerospace, Boeing currently employs between 50 to 100 engineers and technicians in Russia, he added. Gandalf the White (4/14/2001; 10:57:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 51868) Lafisrap's message #51846 http://www.bangkokpost.com/newindex/today/140401_news02.html Lafisrap (4/14/2001; 2:24:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 51846)Black Gold: Impossible to prove something's nonexistence?Posted over at another gold forum, has anyone seen info on this? A link? Perhaps it will be picked up by the USAGOLD LIVE NEWS feed?********YES, Lafisrap, the Hobbits have been watching this story unwind!! This is the only truth to date -- but lots of WILD rumors abound !! NOTE that this has been done before and that the natives do not respond to "WOLF WOLF" calls anymore. Jing Jing ?====Bangkokpost Senator's hunt gets big boost Thaksin pledges help after visiting dig siteby Paiboon Chongcharoen & Kosol Sathitthamajit Chaowarin Latthasaksiri's long hunt for World War II Japanese treasure in Kanchanaburi was given a major boost yesterday when Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra visited the digging and promised help. Mr Thaksin's assurance came after the Ratchaburi senator, often mocked for his futile search for the fabled treasure over the past several years, claimed on Thursday he had made a find valuable enough to pay off the national debt. "At this stage, the government will give him support if the search does not cause any damage," said the prime minister after visiting the excavation site deep inside Lijia cave in Sangkhla district yesterday.But what had lent so much weight to Mr Chaowarin's discovery that made the prime minister go to Kanchanaburi was kept a mystery. During the visit Mr Thaksin was shown a photograph of an object claimed to have been dug up at the site. Except for the provincial governor, all other officials and reporters were barred from getting close enough to see what had been found or to listen to the conversation between the premier and Mr Chaowarin, lasting about half an hour. "It's a photo of an object. I did not see the real item which, if true as shown in the photo, will have very high value," Mr Thaksin said, hinting the item was "about gold". He said Mr Chaowarin was seeking a royal audience on Tuesday to report on his find, which was kept at a safe house in Bangkok and would only be revealed to the public on Wednesday. He said the senator wanted government permission to blast open the cave so his excavation team could go deeper inside. The government would need to consult the Forestry Department, the Mineral Resources Department and the National Environment Board first, he said. Satellite photos of the terrain would have to be taken to help the ground survey teams in their work, he said. "I'd like to say that I still do not know exactly what Mr Chaowarin has found. I only saw the picture and I still cannot conclude what is inside the cave."Local authorities were ordered yesterday to step up security around the excavation site.Visitors to the scene were checked and questioned. Local residents were divided on Mr Chaowarin's discovery claim. Some said they believed Mr Chaowarin told the truth because he was a senator and would not have wasted his time digging if the treasure did not exist. Others said they believed the senator had gone mad and his claim should not be taken seriously, judging from his past record. A local observer said Mr Chaowarin had disappointed the public too often in the past through false discovery claims. "The man once took reporters and officials aboard six helicopters to a site in Thong Phaphum district to show an old rail track. He also did some digging in Saiyoke district and did not find anything." Mr Chaowarin, however, appeared to be highly confident when he discussed his latest find with reporters on Thursday.+++++++Now you may see why the Hobbits are awaiting MORE news.<;-) justamereBear (4/14/2001; 10:55:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 51867) Black Blade 51852 Energy task force report Humanity is a source of constant amazement to me.This report is a good first step, but one wonders how such an exaulted group of thinkers, addressing a broad and fundamental issue, apparently looking at fundamental long term issues, can then rest all their prognostications on a poorly thought out assumption. The general tone of the report appears to me to rest on the idea that simply by throwing money at the problem of finding and drilling for additional, or new, sources of hydrocarbons, that such deposits may be developed. Oh, and by the way, developing alternate sources of energy MAY be good, and economically wise. Anything beyond 3 or 5 years in the future is not "my job". No one seems willing or able to address the question: What if, for practical purposes, there are no more deposits to be discovered? What if our science is good, and we have in fact mapped out the available resources?They dismiss that part of the equation by simply stating, what evidence currently available indicates as in doubt, that hydrocarbon supplies are "enormous". Nowhere do they address the question that there is obviously a FINITE amount of hydrocarbons, and that we could be looking at the end of the huge but FINITE amount of hydrocarbons available. Humanity seems to think that way about several things. Our financial mess has similiar roots. If we just slow down the rate at which we spend more than we earn, why, of course we will avoid bankrupcy. As long as we spend one penny more than we earn, we cannot avoid bankrupcy. If one is in a hole, one should be mindful of the first rule of holes. Stop digging. Certainly conservation measures will stretch out the inevitable day of reckoning, but changing our usage by 1 or 2 % is not going to change the outcome appreciably. For most practical purposes, we will run out of oil and gas this decade. How they can avoid one question, while supposedly examining a very allied question, amazes me. Everyone seems to be of the attitude that we will muddle through. Somehow. There is always the oil sands and shales. There is always coal. Fine, but they are also finite. And not in such huge quantities as what we have been using. We are again just stalling off the inevitable."God bless us, each and every one". We just might need that blessing, for I fear that we have tempted the lord by putting ourselves in a position that only he can rescue us. I have noticed that this is seldom a wise decision, just as saving for my retirement was a wiser decision than relying on winning the lottery.j'Bear Peter Asher (4/14/2001; 10:45:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 51866) Mr G Of course! The Government economy has been supported by that same phenomena of "Spending other peoples savings" as the private sector has. But the Government pocket book gets hit all the more so, as the after tax capital gain that was fueling the boom is no longer there to generate the taxes coming from that spending activity. Mr Gresham (4/14/2001; 10:31:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 51865) The Post-Bubble Recession has Arrived http://www.itulip.com/recession2001.htm A good comparison of 1930s and now:"The big difference between the 2000s depression and the 1930s depression will be the stunning rate of the collapse. "Short Term Predictions"The U.S. economy will experience negative GDP growth for Q1 and Q2 with possibly some moderation in Q3 but no return to positive GDP growth until 2002 at the earliest Unemployment doubles from 4% to 8% by the end of 2001 The discount rate will be reduced to under 4% by December 2001 Evidence of a deepening recession by mid-2001 even as rates are cut will cause foreign investors to start to doubt the ability of the Fed to halt the economic contraction. At first foreign capital leaves the U.S. in search of better returns elsewhere. Later, as perception of default and currency devaluation risks rises, capital flows out of the U.S. in earnest The fiscal "surplus" of the past few years will turn out to be due primarily to capital gains tax receipts. As tax payers take capital gains losses against gains in 2001, tax receipts will fall by a greater extent than expected. Tax cuts, blessed by Greenspan last week and enacted to help the economy will create an enormous fiscal deficit for 2001. The bond market will price this in before the event, driving up interest rates in late 2001 and further stifling capital formation The first stage of the depression is deflationary, the second inflationary " Peter Asher (4/14/2001; 10:28:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 51864) Comparing Oriental Apples to Occidental Oranges. @ Solomon & J-Bear We have seen a lot of comment on the board, forecasting and evaluating the USA debt bubble based on the past 15 years in Japan. Much has been made over the fact that running their cost of debt service down to zero has failed to create a recovery.This stagnation in an environment of low maintenance credit appears to be illogical to my western mind. I gather from yours and other posts that the demography of their stockholders is extremely different then in our country. If their general public are profuse savers, then who is it that parted with all that money back there at Nikkei 40,000?Could it be that the determining factors of their economic event is the specific cultural viewpoint toward adversity being one more of acceptance of fate and a dependency on, and belief in, authority. The work ethics of the two societies are vastly different and therefore expectations. They are a nation of people with monetary savings. We have become a nation of holders of "perceived" savings which are definitively an expectation for other people's future 401-K etc. contributions.Ii would seem then that using their stock wipe-out and debt bubble scenario to forecast ours would not have much validity. auspec (4/14/2001; 10:23:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 51863) Lafisrap http://www.bangkokpost.com/today/140401_News02.html Here is your Black Gold link in regards to Thailand. Sounds like this Senator has been around a bit. TheStranger (4/14/2001; 9:55:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 51862) Richard Russell I should clarify something from my previous post. Russell points out that all primary bear markets retrace at least half of the preceding primary bull markets. If you apply that rule to the current environment, you get a drop in the Dow down to 6350 at least and probably further. Peter Asher (4/14/2001; 9:33:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 51861) Debt Bubble Data April 14, 2001Russia Trying to Head Off a Debt CrisisBy SABRINA TAVERNISE OSCOW, April 13 — The order seemed simple enough in the late 1980's: 79 brand-new fishing trawlers for the Soviet Union to upgrade its fleet.Work began at European shipyards, financed by bank loans backed by millions of dollars in guarantees fromthe Soviet government.But when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the trawlers and the bills for them went separate ways. Theboats slipped into private hands; the new owners promptly disappeared into a web of offshore companies, andthe Russian government was left owing $1.5 billion. The debts were later rolled into the $42 billion Russia owesto a group of Western governments known as the Paris Club.After 10 years of stalling and haggling with its creditors and two defaults, Russia is now paying up. Ample oilrevenue and a booming economy have made Russia's 2001 and 2002 interest and principal paymentsmanageable.After that, though, it may not be so easy: nearly $19 billion will come due in 2003, and the government is tryingto negotiate relief of some of the burden. This week in St. Petersburg, the German chancellor, GerhardSchröder, discussed Russia's debts with Russia's president, Vladimir V. Putin, though little progress was made.Germany is the biggest single creditor in the Paris Club, holding about half the total owed.Even if it does win some relief, Russia is feeling the cost of servicing all this debt, prompting it to take a closerlook at just how it was run up.Much of it, like the cost of the trawlers, was borrowed hastily in the chaos of the Soviet Union's dying days,and is now the legacy of a bankrupt state that lost control of its finances, and ultimately, its very property.Often missing from the back-and-forth between Russia and creditors like Germany and the United States, whohave taken a tough line in negotiations, is the identity of some big beneficiaries of the borrowing: Westerncompanies like the shipyards. Many credits granted to Mikhail Gorbachev and his failing state were tiedspecifically to Soviet purchases of western goods, from German industrial equipment to American grain. Forthis reason, politicians and taxpayers alike are questioning whether it is fair to expect Russia to pay in full.The Soviet Union had been borrowing modestly since the 1960's, and made a deal in 1970 with Fiat S.p.A. tobuild what is now Russia's biggest car manufacturer. In the late 1980's, the onset of Mr. Gorbachev's glasnostpolicies brought both an opening to the West and a relaxation of state controls over company managers. Manyof those managers seized their new chance, borrowing recklessly and then privatizing the companies they ran,leaving the government to pay their debts."It was like someone died and left a will, a car, an apartment — and all the heirs came and took the goods, butskipped out on all the payments," said Valentin Pavlov, the Soviet prime minister under Mr. Gorbachev, whoalso served as finance minister.In one case, the renowned eye surgeon Svyatoslav Fyodorov bought the surgical center he directed, which wasbuilt largely on Soviet-era loans, and then persuaded the Russian government to assume responsibility for thedebts, according to Anatoly Chubais, the architect of Russia's state-asset sales program."That was the worst Wild West period," said one western adviser to the Russian government, who spoke onthe condition of anonymity. "There was a lot of what you'd call self-privatization — Red managers grabbingthings."Gosplan had lost control," he continued, referring to the state planning agency, "and Gorbachev wasn'tasserting his authority. A lot of joint ventures spinning off from state enterprises gave rise to theft."The fishing trawlers exemplify the problem. About half the boats never even reached Russia, insteaddisappearing abroad along with the bureaucrats who were supposed to oversee the purchase, according to thestate fishing committee chairman, who investigated the case last year. The trawlers that did reach Russia weretransferred to private owners, but the lease payments on them were made sporadically or not at all.Foreign debt tripled over the six years that Mr. Gorbachev led the Soviet Union, from 1985 to 1991. Acombination of low world prices for oil, the Soviet Union's biggest export, and an ill-fated anti-alcoholcampaign had left the treasury depleted. Mr. Gorbachev began asking for loans to prop up his crumbling state."Our officials were running all over the world taking loans — Gorbachev in Paris, billions coming, Gorbachev inLondon, billions coming," said Boris Fyodorov, a former Russian finance minister, who at the time was anadviser to the Soviet government. "It was clear that the amount of loans was quickly exceeding Russia'scapacity to repay them. In May 1990 we warned Gorbachev of an impending debt crisis."At a time when the Soviet state was at its least cost-conscious, it had vast new access to funds, and it wasborrowing uncontrollably, in many cases simply to cover current costs, like subsidizing imported food andclothing to cover gaps in the rapidly disintegrating Soviet supply system. Russia was running out of everything. Even city governments were borrowing overseas. Mr. Chubais tells ofhow a 1990 cigarette shortage in St. Petersburg led to a crowd of desperate smokers blocking the city's mainroad demanding deliveries. As deputy mayor, he approved a loan to replenish the city's supply."The whole ship was sinking, and loans were taken to plug the holes," Mr. Chubais said in an interview.In the West, export credits were seen as good business. Companies were eager to get access to a vast andunderserved market ahead of competitors, or to unload excess supplies where they would not depress prices athome. At one point in the early 1990's, there was so much American chicken for sale in Russian markets thatpeople began jokingly calling drumsticks "Bush legs."In hindsight, some experts say, it was hardly wise to lend so lavishly to a very weak Soviet state deep infinancial crisis. Credits were poured into industries that had never before been obliged to stick to a budget orrepay a loan. "The West was closing its eyes," said Mr. Fyodorov, formerly of the finance ministry. "We never needed somuch grain. Everyone was interested in selling cheap surplus, but inside Russia it wasn't so efficiently used. Theaverage Soviet official never looked at loans as something you have to repay."In a way, the situation in Russia prefigured the trouble seen today in the technology sector. Like themanufacturers who lent dot-com start- ups the money to buy equipment from them, the Paris Club countriesenjoyed making debt-fueled sales to Russia without worrying too much about the borrowers' profligacy. Unlikemany dot-coms, though, Russia is still around to collect from.Even with extra oil revenue, the Russia that is now making its payments is significantly poorer than the one thatinherited the Soviet Union's debts in 1992. The economy is beginning to recover after a decade of decline, butoutput remains one-third below 1991 levels."It was fair then that Russia took on the entire Soviet debt," said Russia's current finance minister, AlekseiKudrin, in an interview. "And it would be fair now if the G-8 countries would agree on restructuring with apartial write-off." Copyright 2001 The New York Times Company TheStranger (4/14/2001; 9:29:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 51860) Richard Russell in Barron's There is a lengthy interview with Richard Russell in Barron's this morning. He is the editor of the Dow Theory Letters, who's ability to call important market turns has been remarkably accurate for the past 35 years. The interview is too long to post here. But, suffice it to say, it is VERY bearish regarding equities. Russell believes the stock market is early in stage two of a three stage bear which will last three to five years and carry the DJIA down to 6350 or so. Below are two snippits which may be of particular interest to members of the forum. "The dollar is the wild card here. I'm worried about it. The dollar has remained surprisingly strong in the face of ongoing U.S. trade deficits. When the dollar finally turns down, foreigners could cut back on, or even retreat from, dollar-based financial assets. This would put downward pressure on U.S. bonds and stocks. I'm watching the dollar index that trades on the Cotton Exchange. The June contract recently was 114.90. If it breaks below 114.50, and more importantly 113.50, I'd be reasonably certain the dollar has topped out.Meanwhile, the euro, a major component of the dollar index, is trying to form a head-and-shoulders bottom. This can be seen clearly on weekly charts and is the first hint of a possible major turn to the upside for the euro. If we start to see a real slide in the dollar, all bets are off. A sliding dollar would put huge foreign holdings of U.S. securities in danger. If foreigners cash in their dollar chips, the dollar could step on the down escalator and all hell could break loose. Gold might even go up."Before it's over, we'll see the end of the "cult of the Fed." The fact is that the Fed created the biggest economic and stock market balloon in U.S. history, and they did it over a period of years. This allowed, in particular, the technology sector of the economy to expand production capacity far beyond what was needed.Lowering interest rates and flooding the banks with liquidity won't solve the problem. Only time will solve the problem. Excess capacity will have to be worked off. The Fed can't work it off. Time, bankruptcies, removal of excess capacity are what will work it off. That entails time -- and pain. And everybody is up to his eyeballs with debt. Corporations are choking on it. To work off debt also takes time and pain." lamprey_65 (4/14/2001; 9:15:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 51859) Silver http://www.crbindex.com/news/story2203.html Japanese environmental concerns boost silver soldering demand Tokyo, April 12 (BridgeNews) - Increasing environmental concerns are boosting Japan's use of silver in soldering materials to replace poisonous lead. The consumption rise will become more significant from 2003, as major Japanese manufacturers, such as Sony Corp. and Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. Ltd. plan to replace all soldering materials from traditional tin-lead alloy with tin-silver alloy, industry sources said Thursday. ( Story .11863 ) Hydro (4/14/2001; 8:32:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 51858) Energy policy? What if no Energy? http://www.dieoff.org/page224.htm Black Blade: good CFR reference. For closely related info, check out the above site. Regards- Trail Guide (4/14/2001; 8:22:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 51857) The Journey Continues! Hello again, everyone!Well, I'll try posting today, but I must warn you that this effort is coming from the old brain cells alone. At least for a few days / weeks. I'm working thru the Home computer only (not to be confused with where I live, rather the Home unit that gathers and sends everything).USAGOLD and USAGOLD INTERNATIONAL ------ Another is going to begin writing his Thoughts again. It'll be on the screen as it comes in. Of course, the first hello will be coming to you, Michael. Before all others. I'll work on keeping up as best as I can. Will be posting some of my items a little later. Talk laterTrailGuide auspec (4/14/2001; 7:40:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 51856) Lafisrap "Black Gold; Impossible to Prove Something's Nonexistence" Thanks, Lafisrap, for the Thailand Black Gold snippet. Hopefully the entire link will be 'surfaced' soon. Certainly no one we know would have a pre-conceived idea in regards to the nonexistence of Black Gold, would they? And therefore go about trying to prove same?I know, I know, it works BOTH ways; One would also have to prove its existence in order to accept same. It's all called the investigative process and best approached with a healthy ratio of openness/skepticism. Maybe a lot of valuable entities coming out of caves this weekend!Best to you, still on the trail,auspec Hill Billy Mitchell (4/14/2001; 6:25:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 51855) JMB regarding # 51810 Your words @ # 51805Do not be intimidated by that post. I considered your post to be profound.Very respectfully,HBM Hill Billy Mitchell (4/14/2001; 6:13:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 51854) Black Blade - good to see you back Sir BBSort of missed your posts lately. I often reflect on how you have kept us ahead of the curve on the energy issue. All news on the energy front is simply history for us.I just couldn't help but post the following from the ladies with whom my wifeCorrespond – Quote:"Something simple:I knew it was some View Yesterday's Discussion.
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