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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 8/14/2000 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) John Doe (08/14/00; 23:54:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 34960) RE: Pd I believe the NYMEX is telling the world that August and September palladium is actually worth $1000-$1350 per oz, minimum, as these prices de facto represent 100% margin, no matter how they verbally frame their policies. Bonedaddy (08/14/00; 22:35:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 34959) Henri.... What I meant to say was how deeply enriching it is to place ones thoughts, as a message in a bottle, and to receive in return, a reply. A reply that both completes and complements the original thought. Yes, life is lived to it's fullest in the midst of the struggle, in refusing to play the game! Black Blade (08/14/00; 22:24:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 34958) @PH in LA, NYMEX Palladium Default and the "Tale of Two Markets!" That's OK TC, Today the real big news is the PM paper market default and implications for all PMs. Thankyou PH, I mentioned this little item this morning, though I had inadvertly cited the COMEX instead of NYMEX. I was a bit busy with other business at the time. This is an actual default on Pd. Instead of manipulation and default in the style of the despicable and dishonorable Japanese, the NYMEX default by the practitioners of fraud have accomplished much the same thing. There were comments today that it was done to insure an orderly market, whereas it was in reality a blatant attempt at price fixing, collusion, theft and a dishonest practice of hijacking the Pd market. I think that we will see a similar event with the Pt market in the not too distant future. Another rumor that I had found interesting and also mention by Cheryl (?) Strauss Einhorn (of Barron's) was that the NYMEX might delist Pd from options and futures trades all together. This is of course an outright admission that the Pd market is in serious straits and that there is no metal to cover should there even be a nominal demand for delivery. In effect, the NYMEX has declared "Force Majuere" on Pd! From Friday:New York--Aug. 11--The New York Mercantile Exchange said it will increase the margins on palladium futures on Aug. 14, 16 and 18. As of the close of business on Aug. 14, margins will be raised on the August and September contracts to $60,000 from $45,000 for clearing members; to $66,000 from $49,500 for members and to $81,000 from $60,750 for customers. (Story .15103)And from this morning:NYMEX palladium trade glum about margin hikes, PGMs off Alden Bentley 08/11/00 NEW YORK, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Platinum and palladium futures languished in early New York Mercantile Exchange business as traders and floor brokers fretted that a penalising hike in palladium margins announced Friday may cripple NYMEX palladium trade. At 1010 EDT, September palladium was off $2.90 at $790 an ounce. October platinum was down $13.80 at $568 an ounce. In its second margin increase in a week, NYMEX said Friday it will raise margins on palladium futures and spreads in stages through next week. By next Friday clearing members will have to front $100,000 for each August and September 2000 contract traded, up from an already dear $45,000. Some traders said they feared the next step for the exchange was de-listing volatile palladium all together. ``It has a different feel to it, like they just want to put the kibosh on it once an for all and be done with it,'' said Rocky D'Esposto a floor broker at RJ Futures. The NYMEX said it does not comment on margin changes and did not respond to questions about its plans for palladium by midmorning. In February, the Tokyo commodity Exchange, the largest Platinum Group Metals futures market, imposed draconian trade controls on palladium. NYMEX also raised rates at that time. Palladium is a highly illiquid market and the metal in February was running away to record highs over $800 an ounce because of strong demand from industrial users and an acute shortage from top-producer Russia. The rally fizzled only to resume in thin summer markets, setting news highs last week on the NYMEX at $859 basis September. The NYMEX increase means that to control a single 100-ounce contract, a hedger or local must collateralize more than its nominal value, at current prices, as a guarantee against losses for the exchange, which is counterparty to all transactions. Today, the active September contract is worth $79,000. In other words, a trader gets no leverage, a core incentive to use futures as a vehicle to hedge or speculate. ``How much worst could liquidity have gotten? Well it's gotten worse because locals are not going to trade it,'' said a New York precious metals dealer. ``It makes no sense trading NYMEX -- liquidity plus expense,'' he said. ``Platinum in comparison is very orderly.'' On spreads involving the August and September contracts, margins will be raised to $85,250 from $30,250. Dealers said this could force closure of many open positions that would otherwise be rolled from September to the December contract before deliveries against September begin. Midmorning palladium volume Friday was just 34 contracts traded outright and 94 spreads, which involve the simultaneous sale of a near contract and purchase of a deferred contract, or vice versa. ``Right now there is very little liquidation because of the increase, which goes to show the people who are holding positions have got the money or power,'' said another floor broker. ``I think you've got the professional people with positions, be them long or short.'' Total open interest as of Wednesday was just 2,177 contracts in palladium, 1,122 contracts of which were in the September contract. The total outstanding position in palladium was therefore valued at only $88.6 million, a drop in the bucket compared even to sister metal platinum with open interest of 9,574. ``The people in the platinum and palladium pit are upset about it,'' said the second floor broker. It's too expensive for them. They are squeezing out their own locals.''Black Blade: Of course they should be upset about it. The NYMEX just told them to "Drop Trow and bend over" They just got raped and mugged! The NYMEX are thieves and stole the Pd market. It won't matter much in the long haul however, as the Russians simply don't have the metal, and everyone else can't produce it fast enough! The only play now is either physical Pd, a Pd pool if you can get into one, or the stock of a PGM producer like Stillwater (SWC), or the S. African producers. Thank God I got my physical Pt.This morning from London:PALLADIUM FALLS SHARPLY Palladium fell sharply in Europe on Monday on illiquid conditions rather than fundamental news, dealers said. Palladium fixed at $738.00 a troy ounce in London on Monday afternoon, down from $765 in the morning and its lowest level fix since July 20. Dealers said the metal, used in the production of autocatalysts to clean car exhaust fumes, is likely to remain volatile into September. ``As we get closer to the end of the month with no fresh news from Russia I think we'll see the price creep back up towards $800,'' one said. Russia, which produces two thirds of the world's palladium, has said it will deliver metal to Japanese consumers at the end of August, but dealers are reluctant to believe this until they see the metal.Black Blade: As early as this morning, London traders knew that the Russkies were stalling the Japanese. A general feeling was emerging that the Russians were not being truthful and forth coming about their inability to produce and deliver sufficient metal. And this evening, two confusing snippits from BridgeNews that are also at odds with one another:NY Precious Metals Review: Palladium dn 5.23% as margins hiked New York--Aug. 14--NYMEX Sep palladium settled down $41.05, or 5.23%, at $744.45 an ounce after hitting a one-week low of $725.25. Palladium got clobbered by profit-taking and fund selling, sparked by worries last week's gains were overdone and on talk that the Russians were selling material. NYMEX's recent hike of margin requirements was also blamed for the sell-off. (Story .2333) Black Blade: Phantom Pd! No one has actually seen it! Interesting element – invisible, weightless, colorless, no mass, same consistency as air. Hmmm…….. Wait a minute, there is a glut of Pd. We breath this stuff, it is the stuff of imagination!BRIDGE FOCUS: Further upside seen for rampant platinum shares Johannesburg--Aug. 14--South African platinum share prices are testing fresh highs and analysts believe there is still further upside as demand for palladium eases in favor of platinum and rhodium. "Demand for palladium must decline substantially over the next two to three years or there is going to be a train smash," a platinum analyst told I-Net Bridge. (Story .18138) Black Blade: This statement explains it all! DITTO! Not enough Pd production, any deliveries from Russia, the S. Africans and US cannot produce enough! The NYMEX had no other choice than to default and steal from the investors. These crooks have killed the free market in Pd. Pt is next! The real question now is, how long before Gold and Silver are treated the same. We had a taste when options contracts were nearly defaulted on when the WA was announced and sales were suspended and only sold at market. No wonder then many have abandoned the PM paper trades. The smart money in PMs is headed toward physical metal, and toward profitable and reasonably valued unhedged mining shares where available. Bonedaddy (08/14/00; 22:20:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 34957) Henri Yes! LeSin (08/14/00; 22:00:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 34956) China & Gold from Gold-Eagle Forum Further to Town Crier's China Gold Bank relaxes control of gold market (SungWonSohn) Aug 14, 15:53 China's central bank, the People's Bank of China, has demonstrated the Chinese Government's strong commitment to opening up the domestic gold market when its Shanghai branch let the Shanghai Laofengxiang Jewellery Corp, one of the country's largest jewellery processors, purchase old gold jewellery from the public a few days ago. This is the first time that the central bank has officially transferred its power to purchase old gold jewellery to an enterprise. According to Roland Wang, manager of the World Gold Council (North China), the central government's relaxation is another important step towards the deregulation of the domestic gold market. Consumers are now permitted to exchange their old gold jewellery at the Laofengxiang corporation for cash. The Laofengxiang is authorized to value the jewellery.The valuations have to be basically in line with fluctuations in the central bank's gold purchase prices, sources with the bank said. Currently, the central bank's purchase price is 76.3 yuan (US$9.2) per gram. The relaxation is an incentive for the domestic gold market, Wang said. Demand for gold on the domestic market mainly centred on jewellery. The council's statistics indicated that the demand for gold on the Chinese mainland reached 56.5 tons in the first quarter of this year. The central bank piloted the relaxation of controls in Shenyang in Northeast China's Liaoning Province in the second half of last year and in Wuhan in Central China's Hubei Province in the first half of this year. Before this relaxation, the central government had tightly controlled the purchase of gold and its allocation for decades. Consumers were only allowed to exchange their old gold jewellery for cash at the central bank's outlets. Gold jewellery enterprises were forbidden to purchase gold from the public. Consumers were only permitted to exchange their old jewellery for new at these enterprises. Date: 08/08/2000 Author: GONG ZHENGZHENG, China Daily staff Peoples Republic of China (SungWonSohn) Aug 14, 15:50 State deregulates gold industry TIANJIN: The Zhongjin Gold Co Ltd, China's first share-holding gold company, was officially launched yesterday in this port city in North China. The company is co-sponsored by seven shareholders. They are China National Gold Corp, the Guo'an Gold Co Ltd under China International Trust and Investment Corp and five other firms from Henan and Shandong provinces, the Tibet Autonomous Region and Tianjin Municipality. China National Gold Corp holds more than 88 per cent of the company. According to Wang Dexue, director with the Gold Administration of the State Economic and Trade Commission, the launch of the Zhongjin company signalled the reform of the country's gold industry. "It is a very important step toward relaxing the central government's tight control on the gold industry," said Wang, who is also the China National Gold Corp's legal representative. The launch will further open the gold industry and will lay a sound foundation for it to deal with challenges from China's pending entry into the World Trade Organization, Wang said. Zhongjin, registered in the Tianjin Port Bonded Zone with assets of 527 million yuan (US$63.5 million), plans to find more cash to fuel its expansion. The company aims to be listed on the domestic stock market within the next year, said Song Xin, the company's president. The firm estimates it will have assets of 2 billion yuan (US$240 million) and profits of more than 100 million yuan (US$12 million) within the next five years, Song said. A legacy of the planned economy, the gold industry was monopolized by the central government. But with China's financial reform surging ahead, and the State's investment in gold prospecting and mining declining, the industry has to explore more fund-raising channels. During the first half of the year, the State invested less than 400 million yuan (US$48.2 million) in gold prospecting and mining. The company will focus its operations on prospecting and mining gold and other non-ferrous metals, Song said. The company, with more than 3,000 employees, now has three wholly owned subsidiaries in Henan, Shaanxi and Hebei provinces and one share-holding branch in Shanxi Province. The subsidiary in Henan Province is the country's largest gold mining enterprise. The firm has more than 40 tons of gold reserves. The administration's statistics indicate there are about 2,300 tons of gold reserves nationwide. Zhongjin is committed to producing more high-quality gold to satisfy increasing demand on the domestic market, which will be deregulated soon, Song said. The company also has plans to get involved in gold processing, high-tech sectors, and world mineral markets, Song said. The administration encourages domestic gold mining enterprises to engage in the development of gold reserves in other countries. elevator guy (08/14/00; 21:41:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 34955) The pre-selected president -Will continue to support all infrastructure including the rapist gold cabal. This is the very structure of Western civilization, and not one of us should be so naive as to expect any changes in the financial landscape. What you should expect is calculated spin that massages your ego, plays to your religious beliefs, and stuns your sensibilities until you conclude that we must give the gumit more power, so as to better protect theUnbornWetlandsHelpless VictimsChildrenSovereigntyRightsEtcEtcThey dont care what you beleive, as long as you are deluded into thinking that the gubmit is still in your hands, or they are satisfied that you do nothing about the truth that you know, because after all, its just pointing towards the prophesied one world gubmit, and you cant stop the prophecy. They dont care what you belive, as long as you play virtual reality politics, or give up and stick you head in the sand. There may be those who use our belief in the end times, so as to nutralize us into thinking that nothing can be done, when in fact the Republic is not really out of our hands yet, and could be re-won by an awakening to its core values.They use escatology as a tool to promulgate their "un-stoppable" vision of utopia. As if to say that you cant stop the NWO, because prophecy has spoken, and it will happen no matter what you do. What if the appointred time is not yet? And we all stand by thinking that the fix is in, and we stand idle as innocents are slaughtered? When in actuallity all we did was side-step our responsibility to maintain what was given to us?Bush Senior was or is a member of the Tri-Lateral Commission, and I hear he is a stockholder in Barrick. Do you really think his son will have fallen far from the tree?Gold will be trounced by all Western leaders until the dollar game has run its course.I wish I could toot my kazoo at some convention, and honestly believe that there was some party that represented the common man, but thats an illusion. There are not really two parties. They both support spending that puts us in debt to the banksters. Same old stuff, new year, and more conventions where little divisive issues are bandied about to create the illusion of a real live political process.Is there any candidate who seriously talks about the national debt, and who we are in debt to?Is there any candidate who mentions the consequences of Clintons highly suspicious and numerous executive orders?Can anyone with a conscience last more than a day in the American political lanscape?Do people without big money backing them ever get to be president? TownCrier (08/14/00; 21:14:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 34954) Gold horizons (and a bonus haiku) Preparations showSteady steps no longer slowEastern dawn aglowAlthough Sir Black Blade will, no doubt, report on these items when he stirs this evening, here in The Tower we couldn't resist getting the jump on him with regard to some notable pieces of news.You may recall from our July 24 Central Bank Insider update that Central Banking Publications, Ltd. reported Dai Xianglong, governor of the People's Bank of China, pledging "to push forward with market liberalisation plans in areas such as monetary policy and the exchange rate." China has an initiative for "creating conditions necessary for renminbi convertibility" which was temporarily put on hold during the Asian financial crisis, and although the PBOC governor warned that such reforms would be gradual and would not be completed for several years, the golden aspect of it all seems to be shaping up nicely, and in an timely fashion. Read on...HEADLINE: China's PBOC may soon assign gold market operator[Bridge News] Hong Kong--Aug. 14--The People's Bank of China (PBOC) may soon assign an operator to run the country's FIRST PHYSICAL GOLD MARKET [emphasis added by TownCrier]. The central bank is believed to have been speeding up the pace of deregulation in the domestic gold market over the past few months, sources in China said Monday. Chinese firms that want to conduct gold trading in the domestic market in the future have increased their efforts to lobby the PBOC to give them the right to trade gold, they said.HEADLINE: China PBOC Shenzhen to allow some firms to buy gold jewelry[Bridge News] Hong Kong--Aug. 14--The Shenzhen Branch of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the central bank, will in September-October give some Shenzhen-based jewelry firms the right to buy gold jewelry from the public, a PBOC Shenzhen official told BridgeNews Monday. He said the firms will be allowed to re-smelt the used gold jewelry and use the smelted gold for their production.As I sit here in the night air atop The Tower, it occurs to me that it really doesn't matter whether this gold in the experimental province of Shenzhen is in the form of chains, baubles, coins, or bars. It is physical gold being bought by weight, then reforged, assayed and offered for resale. A two-way physical market any way you slice it. There is no risk of a TOCOM-style default here, and the price-discovery market forces of supply and demand for futures contracts on the floor of the NY Commodity Exchange will have precious little to do with the price of tea in China. It will also have precious little influence on the price of gold in China when all the paper arbitrage in the world fails to yield up adequate quantities of gold to satiate physical demand.And as for signs of the "smart money" knowing when the game of musical chairs is almost up, from this next article it looks like many of them have indeed taken their own chair and retired from participation...HEADLINE: LBMA July daily gold turnover down 25% to new lows[Bridge News] London--Aug. 11--The London Bullion Market Association said Friday average daily cleared turnover for gold in July fell 25% on the month to 20.5 million ounces--the lowest ever level recorded by the LBMA.And while we're on the topic of knowing when the game is almost up, it seems that the derivative players have finally reached the conclusion that price performance of COMEX gold futures contracts are firmly in the control of those with determined shorting interest, having no limit to the contracts that can be written and sold into whatever demand arises. During the first week of August, COMEX reported that open interest in gold futures fell to a new seven-year low of 110,000 contracts. Really makes life that much easier on the determined shorts, wouldn't you say? Easier, that is, until the "China Syndrome" discredits the validity of that particular market. As an "investor", you can either position yourself to work through grief with a counterparty, or else stock up on the precious yellow item that all will want yet not all can grasp when the system eventually blows. Thanks for your kind attention.[Articles from Bridge News reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:http://www.crbindex.com/No further reproduction without written permission] wolavka (08/14/00; 18:47:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 34953) In chicago pits today Today was a let your buddy in day.Time to rock and roll. USAGOLD (08/14/00; 18:34:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 34952) Chrusos. . . Just got to the Forum and note your two laudable posts. I have a question (and a few comments):You note that the money manager referenced believes that the "Fed had provided a warrant to underwrite the market and his job was solely to outperform his peers under that scenario."Does he also, in your opinion, believe that this "warrant" is open ended and not subject to market forces?If so, in my view, he may have misjudged our Fed chairman in two important respects, and might face fiduciary consequences as a result:He may have over-estimated the Fed chairman with respect to his ability to deliver in behalf of the "annointed" -- annointed at least in his own mind. Greenspan just made some fairly profound statments before Congress pointing out that managers like him are essentially on their own. There won't be a bailout this time around, like there was in 1987. He may have under-estimated the Fed chairman with respect to his reverence for market forces. If the market moves against him, perhaps he will discover his confidence may have been misplaced. We are, after all, dealing with a bubble, and there's only so much within the power of a Fed chairman in dealing with a bubble, once the decision is made to refrain from pumping it up.Not to say that your friends attitude is too distant from the prevailing one on Wall Street (and elsewhere) and that it hasn't paid dividends thus far. However, I view that brand of thinking dangerous.I agree with him on the subject of investigations. It wasn't until the crash of 1929, that the chairman of National City Bank faced the prospect of jail time, and we all know that operators need not fear the long arm of the law until after the edifice collapses. That's the way the game is played. This time around though it is stockholders who will be directly affected by the stock option plans, and in my view, the offenses are actionable (and as a result more direct, inclusive and pervasive), but on something like this, I will leave it at that, and see what someone like Canmami might have to say on the subject.On "volatility": I've learned that "volatility" means "losing control." The anti-gold players at the major banks worldwide did not start using the word "volatility" until they believed in their heart of hearts that they had lost control after the Washington Agreement. Then the word popped up everywhere we looked -- Andy Smith being its most avid user. As in, "We simply cannot have all this volatility." Options players do not like "volatility." Particularly, "volatility" that moves the market opposite their position (book). That's akin to the words "free market." Can't have that. Not when you're a Master of the Universe. Could cost you your job. Or worse. Ask Nick Leeson. Thank you for two thought provoking posts. CoBra(too) (08/14/00; 18:05:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 34951) Chruzeiro's, Beta's and M&M's - got it wrong ... I'll try again ... "Trying" as it is to answer to Chrusos's "benchmarks, Betas and money managers ... it would necessitate at a minimum a Delta Hedging "Black Sholes" mathematical model to accurately depict the insurance of squarely hitting the unseen part of the approaching iceberg, anybody else would have avoided by sight of the awesome part in sight - any close contact, with a contract of steel-less stain-spine heroes of the unsinkable - heroics of a then new economy...of technical innovation of unthinkable -fathomable) potential new area's and never, ever looking back - to cycles of malady - deserve their predicament.NOT? ... How Noble can you get - without blowing the bounty... a la' LTCM? to the eternity of the merry- and other fair weather traders relying on noble hedge quality strategies, while the keeper of the Inn, honors last calls, NO MORE! dynamyte au-nobel - cb2 - a sorry try Chrusos (08/14/00; 15:36:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 34950) Benchmarks, Beta and money managers I recently had a one on one with a very senior money manager of a Global Asset Management Company. I put to him many of the downside threats to the $ and US economy .Revealingly he advised that in 20 years in the markets he had never come across such conditions indicating a major inflexion point in markets. He said yes if you're right only gold and a gun will help you not money markets nothing else. He also said if there was a bust only then would investors and journalists want to look at stock options and all the reasons behind the bust. However he believed the Fed had provided a warrant to underwrite the market and his job was solely to outperform his peers under that scenario. The benchmark for most pension funds (which in most cases own well over half the stock in the indexes) are purely relative to the stock index - there is no absolute. So even if the market crashed 80% the manager would have outperformed (and earned a performance fee on a much reduced asset base) if he only crashed 75%. A similar benchamrk across all pension funds has sytemic implications as at the end of the day they are all indexed. English speaking countries tend to have very high equity content in their funds in SA typically nearly 75% ditto UK, Australia etc. European funds are completely the opposite with the same percentage in bonds and the Italiins 80 % in property.Dr Clive Roffey a noted South African chartist expanded on this in a recent article in the paper publication Money Marketing. Bear in mind he is referring to the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and our money managers typically use a benchmark of the JSE index but with gold (specifically) and resources underweigted and the financial and industrial overweighted. With this reduced gold and resources benchmark some managers hold no gold whatsoever except what they have to through some exposure to Anglo American which is 10% of the index. Naturally this has worked in the past! On the market map at smartmoney.com I see that your US gold sector is absolutely miniscule. Anyway here is Clive's article. Perhaps this will generate some debate from the fundis ( a South African word denoting a wise one)VOLATILITY, GOLD AND PORTFOLIO STRUCTURES Whilst ‘volatility’ is on of the institutional market's favourite buzzwords, ‘gold’ is it's most reviled. Quite why, I do not know. It is my intention to question the wisdom of market reactions to both words in this article, says Money Marketing's Dr Clive Roffey.Volatility means different things to different people. To many analysts it implies a significant deviation from accepted normal past behaviour.This certainly holds true in conditions that are fairly predictable and that can be projected forward with a degree of certainty eg: the study of tidal variations. But it is unacceptable method for stock market analysis where market conditions can change trend direction with regular abandon.In the classic bull market from 1977 to 1997, in an established narrow upward trend with exceptionally low volatility, this concept worked perfectly. However for the past four years the market has changed dramatically. Hence all the parameters developed during the trending market must be discarded and a new set developed to account for the choppiness. What then will happen when this gyrating market moves back into a more normal trending scenario? Once again all the parameters established during the gyrating period will be obsolete.Beta analysis is the market's pet method of determining risk and volatility. Essentially it is a relative strength comparison between a share or unit trust and a market index. It measures that part of the stock's movement affected by the index. Although it is a widely accepted gauge of risk analysis it is in fact a historical measure of performance on the assumption that past equity movement is a general indicator of future progress. Once again this technique worked well during the 20-year bull trend but has been far from successful in the gyrating market of the past four years.What I find amusing is the market's blind acceptance of beta, and its cohort alpha analysis, that are at best based on a dubious mathematical calculation of the best-fit line through a series of widely scattered historic data points. But show the actual graph of the relative strength, that gives a clear visual picture of strength trends and their changes of direction, to a died in the wool fundamental analyst and he will reel back in horror.Any student of harmonics will tell you that every oscillating body has two main characteristics, the number of waves that fit into a given time frame and the height of those waves. Vocal and musical sounds are classic examples of harmonic motion. Believe it or not stock markets also have harmonic vibrations, but that is not for today's discussion. Suffice to say that volatility can also be measured by harmonic analysis.From a far more simplistic point of view take a look at the price movement of Old Mutual Gold fund against that of the JSE Industrial Index for the past five years. The conclusion is obvious. There have been seven clearly discernible trends in the JSE Industrial Index, several trend changes being of a violent nature. Compare this with only two trend changes in the gold fund. Now I ask you, which shows the higher degree of volatility, beta analysis or the actual picture?Mention gold unit trusts to the average adviser or fund manager and they will brush you off with the dramatic rebuttal of ‘Golds are too volatile’. What rubbish. The gold market volatility for the past few years has been far less than that of the industrial, hi-tech and financial markets, and yet unit trust portfolios continue to be overweight in these market sectors with little or no exposure, even in the aggressive portfolios, to gold. Small companies and non-earning or dividend paying supposedly high growth sci-tech companies were considered to be far less risky than dividend paying gold shares. However the recent spate of profit warnings is suddenly bringing the swinging NASDAQ style stocks down to earth.Look at the actual chart picture of the relative performance of the Financial index to that of the JSE Overall index. Forget about all the beta analysis, it has given totally misleading data for the past three years as the Financial index has obviously under performed the market and, at this point of time, does not look like changing into a period of superior performance. Yet most unit trust portfolios have been overweight in this sector for the whole of this period.Now compare this to the relative performance of the JSE Gold index to the JSE Overall index.In a nutshell, the Gold index has outperformed the JSE Overall index for the past two years whilst the Financial index underperformed! So mush for volatility. Judging by this data there is far more likelihood of the Gold index continuing its better performance than there is of the financials reversing into a new bull trend.As I always tell delegates at my seminars on chart analysis ‘Don't listen to me, just look at the pictures." Chrusos (08/14/00; 15:26:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 34949) Stock option reform must win the day. http://www.smithers.co.uk/standard135.html Mr Kosares ORO - I appreciated the acknowledgment of the previous stock option item posted. Below is a follow up from Andrew Smithers' weekly column in the Evening Standard.Here is the article "Stock option reform must win the day.Monday 31 July 2000Sir David Tweedie, who is concerned with accounting standards, wants to make British companies charge the costs of employee stock options to their accounts. He is obviously right, but reform will be stoutly resisted. Companies today make no deduction from their profits when they give options to their employees. These options can be very valuable, so it is very expensive to give them away rather than sell them. Current rules thus overstate profits. In addition to the need to agree on this basic principle, there are practical questions to be decided. The first is how to price the options and the second is when to charge them. The easiest way to make sure that the options are correctly priced is to insist that companies buy them in the market. This would have three advantages. First, it would leave no room for doubt about their real cost. Second, the charge would arise when the options were purchased. Third, companies' profits would be unaffected by subsequent fluctuations in the price of their shares. Options don't only have a cost when they are bought, but their values also fluctuate afterwards with changes in share prices. If companies owned options equal to the ones they had given to employees, they would be unaffected by share price changes. If companies are not required to buy options to match those they give away, the accounting standards board will face three problems. The first is how to price the options. This is not too difficult. There are standard formulae for doing this, but there will be room for debate about the detail, and companies will tend to use any leeway they can to overstate profits. The second problem will be when to charge the cost to the accounts. The correct time to charge a cost is when it is incurred. Companies will wish to avoid this. They will want to have the costs spread over time. The third problem will be how to allow for the impact of changes in share prices. This can be huge. If allowance is made for this, US profits last year would probably be less than half the figures published. Fortunately for Britain, the situation here is nothing like as bad as it is in the US. Most British schemes only allow employees to exercise their options if the company has an above average performance. Since only half a group can be above average, this should, at least in theory, make a real dent in the cost. The battle to stop Sir David will be hard fought. On the side of virtue and Sir David will be those who believe in the need to preserve public standards. Its opponents will claim that misrepresenting the truth keeps down the cost of capital and will make it easier to launch new businesses. They will also express fears that if British standards are not as low as those elsewhere companies will emigrate. An added dimension to the debate will be provided by its relevance to the US, where the use of options to overstate profits has already become a scandal."Regards to all the friends at USAGOLD forum Buena Fe (08/14/00; 15:24:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 34948) OPEC http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/newswrld.htm#three Chŕvez rules out lower oil prices Hugo Chŕvez, the Venezuelan president, said that Opec should not allow oil prices to drop below current levels and that any fall would amount to a death sentence for producers such as Venezuela. Mr Chŕvez has been touring Opec member states to invite the cartel's government leaders to a summit in Caracas in September. He said Opec did not want a high price, but a fair price and accused the developed world of making the organisation out to be a 'devil'. CoBra(too) (08/14/00; 14:26:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 34947) Sorryy abbout my ddoubbles aas in taale - ya' gott'a hhammer your ggoold puuter- time for a neww onne!! cbwhoo beesting (08/14/00; 14:23:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 34946) @ Sir CoBra(too) # 34939. My Dear Wife picked out my handle "beesting" I think because I'd been stung by honeybees so many times it made me permanently light headed. Enjoy your posts, please keep them coming....beesting. beesting (08/14/00; 14:11:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 34945) Grass Roots!........or I Really Don't Want to be Involved in hire-ing! To defend Sir ORO's position, even though he is much more capable of defending himself than me, this is how I understand his reasoning, and I for one agree!ALL organizations political or otherwise need the support of the members or followers to stay in existance! It is my experience leaders of "MOST" organizations will tell everyone who will listen what they want to hear, TO KEEP THE FLOCK FOLLOWING!Please look up the many meanings of "SOVEREIGNTY"!A few from my dictionary:b: Freedom from external control.c: enjoying autonomy.: independant.And many more, too numerous to list!Now, one of the main reasons I hold Gold is because despite what Governments, or other organizations, worldwide want people to believe, GOLD is still accepted worldwide as universal "money"! Sovereign individuals,Sovereign families, Sovereign Countries are not being forced into unvoluntary servantude as with the use of paper money.Take a good look at Sir Town Criers post # 34913 08/14/00.We see Thailands Gold consumption is up 69% this year. Ask yourself why???Well this may be the reason:We at this forum were educated by a poster who called himself Thai Gold on how Gold was used as money in Thailand.Buying a special Jewelry called ThaiGold, weighing peices of it, to determine current value,and "Free" trading for stuff. The people of Thailand realize the paper money of Thailand(Baht) has a tendency to lose value quickly, as all issued paper money has the potential to do. The "Grass Roots" Thailanders acting as "Sovereigns" are circumventing the Thailand Governments constant destruction of wealth, thru the use of paper money,wealth created By The People by using Gold instead of "Baht"in every day commerce. IMHO if each individual "Sovereign" lived by the "Golden Rule"(Do unto Others as You Would Have Them do Unto You) The world would be a better place to live in.Will We The People of The United States ever come to realize what the Founding Fathers of The United States wanted for all the people in The U.S when they specified in The Constitution "Only Gold & Silver Coin Will be Used as Money???"I personally think(Most Founders if not all had lived under monarchy's), The Founders dreamed that the unborn generations of the newly formed "United States of America" to be a gathering of "Sovereign Individuals" living in a Sovereign Nation, with rights spelled out quite clearly for all to see in the U.S. Constitution! Is that dream still alive??Exercise your "Sovereignty" by buying Gold!Thanks For Reading.....beesting. CoBra(too) (08/14/00; 14:06:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 34944) A taale - though true... so true Since I'm relocating from a too big "a home", after the kids have left for good - and I'm stranded to do all the work again by my aging self, is it house or garden and surroundings of some 35 acres I've been reminded of the old Texan tycoon, invited for hunting (sowwy, fo'`a' shoot') inour part of the world by ol' "prince" Esterhazy. On the last night black tie affair dinner the Texan asked the prince: " Ya don't tell me you're family was sitting on this piece of real estate (including castle!) for over a thousand years, would ya? ... And you still wann'a hold on to this crummy pi(ss)ece of property - never, ever sold once in all that time? Sh.. eeee .. it, you'd better relocate to the right places - like Silly Con Valley - at the peak of {foliage) turning - think again - cb2 Goldentrill (08/14/00; 13:40:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 34943) Heres a quote by Mr. Murphy "In my last Midas I went into what could break the stranglehold of the "gold cabal" and said:"The good news is that with physical gold in such short supply relative to world gold demand, the manipulation crowd could easily lose control of their orchestration of an artificially low gold price."What could do it?: "*An explosion in the oil price that is somewhat lasting* A collapse in the dollar* A severe stock market rout* A serious credit crunch with loans of all kinds being called in* A move into gold as a currency reserve by the Arabs, Chinese or Japanese"I will always be on the look out for the potential for any of these factors to effect the gold price. There is one other factor that I should have included as I have reiterated so in Midas commentary. That is the effect of a potential change of a US political administration. Four to six years is a long time for the "gold pool" to play and count on the same winning hand. Easy to do when the casino owner has rigged the game for you. But, what if a new casino owner takes over? Especially, once the new casino owner learns of the enormous liabilities he has been handed!Know when to hold them, know when to fold them. If the polls continue to favor Bush, look for the bullion dealers to fold them."Thats why I included my George W. post here - Goldentrill Buena Fe (08/14/00; 13:25:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 34942) oil Tomorrows API inventory #s could be much more impacting then the Govs CPI false measurement! FOA, how soon will oil crack $50? Not long I feal. Goldentrill (08/14/00; 13:19:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 34941) Excellent Article http://www.prudentbear.com/credit.htm Bobbo and Leigh: I do not think the election of George W. a panacea for gold in any measure, however, sweeping clean the Clintons is a good idea for many many reasons.There is an excellent article that I link by Doug Noland that covers many of the topics discussed here by the excellent minds at this round table. This article helped me to put into perspective the posts I have been reading about the excessive monitization and how this has created tremendous instability in our economic system. Mr. Noland' article is really poignant so I attach it here for your reading.Goldentrill - who has not been posting but has been listening in awe and learning and who has been buying gold on the bottom for the last months! PH in LA (08/14/00; 12:38:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 34940) New Concept in Margin on Palladium? Ted Butler (on another forum) is reporting that: "on Friday, the NYMEX has announced that margins for customers ( non-members ) will rise to $135,000 per contract (on Palladium) for the lead months, at the close of business Aug 18. Reason would suggest this has had a bearing in today's down price action. At $735 ( last trade ), a contract is worth $73,500. So, the NYMEX wants 80% more than the full value of the contract. This is preposterous. 100% full margin for the longs guarantees the longs can't default. Anything more is absurd."It appears that all pretense of price in the market is now being abandoned. In other words, "the price for Paladium today is $735 per ounce. In order to get the market price on Friday, (whatever it may be on that day), $1,350 per ounce will have to be placed on margin, today. If, that is, the price does not rise above $735 per ounce in the meantime?" Obviously, the organizers of the NYMEX palladium market now see their function as suppressing the price of their commodity. Period. The concept of a true price is irrelevant. To buy, one must put up more than the "price". So what is the price?Let's suppose that the automobile market were to be managed the same way. To buy a $20,000 car, one is required to put up $30,000. Which number is the price of the car? $20,000 or $30,000? Talk about double talk. And what happens to that extra $10,000? Does it just disappear? Well, it never was anything real, was it? ...and unto dust thou shalt return... CoBra(too) (08/14/00; 12:37:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 34939) @ Sir beesting, or is it (Bee-) Sting? - great find - misallocation of funds by IMF are not quite new - real news would be proof! Otherwise, the IMF, and is serf World Bank is the keeper of the order of the $ - sanctions of magnitude are not imagined - as developing countries are kept from development -and the rest have been kept on SDR's - a poor man's, though new gold pretense of an equivalent of the mirage of real money. The only valid promise was the lender of last resort - the (US) printing press ... Wanted - alive competitors ... cb2 beesting (08/14/00; 12:19:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 34938) Bank of New York under Investigation...Big Time! http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/000814/l14461291.html Swiss magistrate raids banks in IMFRussia probeGENEVA, Aug 14 (Reuters) - A Swiss magistrate said onMonday he had raided two banks as part of a probe into whethera $4.8 billion IMF credit tranche to Russia was diverted via secretSwiss bank accounts.Geneva magistrate Laurent Kasper-Ansermet also told Reuters he was going to the United States onTuesday to seek U.S. cooperation in his probe into possible Swiss links to a massive Russian moneylaundering case involving the Bank of New York (NYSE:BK - news).As part of his investigation, Kasper-Ansermet sent a letter to banks in the Italian-speaking canton ofTicino in July asking for information and documents on whether they had handled diverted IMFcash.During the raids last week at two banks in Ticino which Kasper-Ansermet declined to name, thejudge said he seized bank documents that may help his probe, but declined to give details.Kasper-Ansermet, who has already frozen just under $20 million at a dozen Swiss banks as part ofhis investigation into the Bank of New York affair, said he had some evidence on possible Swissconnections to the multi-billion-dollar scam.In the United States, the judge will have meetings at the U.S. Attorney's Office for the SouthernDistrict of New York, where he last met officials in February, and in Washington.He declined to say whether he would meet officials of the International Monetary Fund, whichrejects charges that its cash was misspent and says the funds were used to defend the rouble.Switzerland in January formally asked the United States for judicial assistance with its own probeinto the Bank of New York case, the biggest to involve money laundering in U.S. history.But Kasper-Ansermet said repeated formal Swiss requests to U.S. investigators to hand overdocuments had gone unanswered.``U.S. investigators have not cooperated with us on this case so far. But now our investigation iswidening and their cooperation is really necessary. That is why I am going to the United States,'' saidthe judge.U.S. officials were not immediately available for comment.Suspicions that Western aid to Russia was diverted have been an issue in the run-up to the U.S.presidential election and the Swiss probe could have political implications for the United States.In February, a former Bank of New York executive and her husband pleaded guilty in a U.S. courtto being involved in a $7 billion international money laundering scheme. Leigh (08/14/00; 12:00:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 34937) ORO Who are YOU supporting for Prez, and why? Is it Bush? I don't mean to invade your privacy, though this place is the opposite of Cheers - here NOBODY knows your name (though we'd all like to boast of knowing you!). CoBra(too) (08/14/00; 11:15:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 34936) WAC - to answer your Qu. from my perspective ... if your'e citizen of one World Government - you're immobilized in every respect - now and ever - stay WA - cb2 CoBra(too) (08/14/00; 11:05:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 34935) To whom -ever- it may concern! The US is in the pre-election doldrums, which can be described as total absence of any politics - be it geo-eco- nomical (or -logical! absentia was guaranteed anyway) or any other US political goals, except the crude (no pun) efforts to stem free market forces, by those, who have been doing the same for years. The rest is devoid, as most avoid, of politics. I guess our forum friend describing this reshuffling of the stacked stack of poker cards, without the "face", is Bore and Gush -, though, maybe I'd rather heed Mr. Alan Greenspan's recent words: "At some point, something's got to give." ... And who else should know better? Best - cb2 WAC (Wide Awake Club) (08/14/00; 10:25:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 34934) @ORO - Ownership of Citizens by the state ORO, you wrote "Also, the continuing institutionalization of the ownership of citizens by their state, rather than the other way round."Where do you see this leading to. Furthermore, if we were to have a One World Government, theoretically, citizenship will cease to matter. I say theoretically, because freedom of movement will still not fully exist. Can somebody from Somalia decide to move to Europe because we are all now citizens of One Government? Leigh (08/14/00; 10:10:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 34933) Bobbo Welcome to our Forum!! We are very glad to have you! Please post often. Goldfly (08/14/00; 10:06:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 34932) Egad - ORO Huh?gf Bobbo (08/14/00; 10:05:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 34931) From a new poster at USAGOLD Hi everyone,This is my first post at USAGOLD and I would like to thank everyone for their excellent posts. I would particularly like to thank Michael Kosares for his daily market commentary. I have been following them for some time and have always found them to be informative and interesting reads. Keep up the good work....:)Goldentrills: Thx for your post on W. If he should be elected, I would expect major window dressing and some visceral changes in the White House. My concern is that the new boss may be too much like the old boss, for gbugs. Remember that 3 of the 4 major candidates for prez and vice-prez are CFR members with NWO visions (all but W, however, he, through his dad, also has definite NWO thingy ties and visions). We can expect more of the same, regarding POG manipulation, if the dems grab the WH again. But what if W wins? Will dad be pulling the strings from behind the curtain? Can gbugs realistically expect the cessation of the PPT, ESF, CB/BB gold manipulations and the au stox hedging programs which have so devastated the gold market in recent years? I hope we don't get fooled again....:)We probably should not expect too much help from the WH. It seems that the overhang of shorts, the improving supply/demand equation, the length of the au bear, the unbelieveable pessimism towards POG at this time, the real possibility of Middle East, Kashmir, Taiwan/China and other hot-spot flare-ups, the very strong USD which is due to reverse and head lower on weakening economic news, etc., etc., are far more favorable fundamental indicators for POG, than a WH tenant change. But that's just imho... USAGOLD (08/14/00; 08:42:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 34930) Today's Report: Speculators Double Short Position; Cat and Mouse Game Begins http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html DAILY COMMENTARY (8/14/00) www.USAGOLD.com . . . Gold was holding its own Monday morning following the stealth $3 up tick at the end of Friday's session. One does not have to look far to find the primary reason why. Scrolling through the gold stories to your immediate left you will find a Bridge News report on the CFTC Commitment of Traders report showing that speculative short positions had more than doubled over the past two weeks. At a time when gold demand continues to run at near record levels and inflation keeps showing up like the fabled bad penny, one wonders what traders found in the market to be so pessimistic about. But pessimistic they appear to be. If you are looking for a reason why gold has traded at progressively lower prices over the past two weeks, look no further than the CFTC numbers and the big traders on Wall Street to find the reasons why. Now, the cat and mouse game begins. With the rest of the gold trading universe aware of the huge short position, as well as the kinetic motion it represents, the psychology is likely to change -- Friday's late session blitzkrieg representing the opening volley. One wonders how large a position Wall Street banks and trading houses can take and still vacate those positions at a profit at some future date. A similar environment at the huge hedge and mutual funds trading paper assets has encouraged the flight response with several well-healed managers. They simply quit after publicly stating they found it difficult, if not impossible, to vacate their huge positions at a profit. In essence, the buyers saw them coming. Fridays highly sensitized $3 jump with what appears to have been a small inducement could have been telling in that regard. We'll be watching the developing "Too Big To Sell" scenario on Wall Street with a great deal of interest in the weeks and months ahead. This week's menu of government reports might contain some surprises. We have Business Inventories today, CPI and Housing Starts Tuesday and the Trade Balance on Friday. We suspect these numbers will continue to reflect a building inflationary trend, but we also expect Wall Street and the mainstream press to cloak the trend in statistical hoi poloi in the interest of promoting placid, if not optimistic, market expectations prior to the upcoming election. Don't forget next Tuesday we have what is being advertised as the Non-Event of the Year -- the August Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Most analysts are keyed to the mind-set that the Fed would not dare raising interest rates less than three months before a presidential election. That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. We'll see you here tomorrow. TO RECEIVE A FREE INFORMATION PACKET ON GOLD OWNERSHIP, PLEASE GO TO LINK ABOVE. Leigh (08/14/00; 08:36:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 34929) Goldentrill http://www.etherzone.com/reyn082100.html Your worst nightmare.... Goldentrill (08/14/00; 08:27:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 34928) Hope on the Horizon I think getting rid of the current administration can be nothing but a postive for gold. IN that effort I forward the following:Thanks, Goldentrill Interesting post> > ----- Original Message -----> Subject: Fwd: George W. Bush> > > > > A side of George W. Bush not shown by mainstream media.> > Excerpt from "A Charge To Keep" by George W. Bush:> > > > But I also recognize that faith can be misinterpreted in the > political> process. Faith is an important part of my life. I believe it is > important to> live my faith, not flaunt it. America is a great country because of > our> religious freedoms. It is important for any leader to respect the > faith of> others. That point was driven home when Laura and I visited Israel > in 1998.> We had traveled to Rome to spend Thanksgiving with our daughter, who > was> attending a school program there, and spent three days in Israel on > the way> home. It was an incredible experience. I remember waking up at the > Jerusalem> Hilton and opening the curtains and seeing the Old City before us, > the> Jerusalem stone glowing gold. We visited the Western Wall and the > Church of> the Holy Sepulcher. And we went to the Sea of Galilee and stood atop > the> hill where Jesus delivered the Sermon on the Mount. It was an > overwhelming> feeling to stand in the spot where the most famous speech in the > history of> the world was delivered, the spot where Jesus outlined the character > and> conduct of a> believer and gave his disciples and the world the beatitudes, the > golden> rule, and the Lord's Prayer. Our delegation included four gentile> governors-one Methodist, two> Catholics, and a Mormon, and several Jewish-American friends. > Someone> suggested we read Scripture. I chose to read "Amazing Grace," my > favorite> hymn. Later that night we all gathered at a restaurant in Tel Aviv > for> dinner before we boarded our middle-of-night flight back to America. > We> talked about the wonderful experiences and thanked the guides and > government> officials who had introduced us to their country. And toward the> end of the meal, one of our friends rose to share a story, to tell > us how> he, a gentile, and his friend, a Jew, had (unbeknownst to the rest > of us)> walked down to the Sea of Galilee, joined hands underwater, and > prayed> together, on bended knee. Then out of his mouth> came a hymn he had known as a child, a hymn he hadn't thought about > in> years. He got every word right:> Now is the time approaching, by prophets long foretold, when all > shall dwell> together, One Shepherd and one fold. Now Jew and gentile, meeting, > from many> a distant shore, around an altar kneeling, one common Lord adore.> > Faith changes lives. I know, because faith has changed mine."> > > "I could not be governor if I did not believe in a divine plan that> supersedes all human plans. Politics is a fickle business. Polls > change.> Today's friend is tomorrow's adversary. People lavish praise and > attention.> Many times it is genuine; sometimes it is not. Yet I build my life > on a> foundation that will not shift. My faith frees me. Frees me to put > the> problem of the moment in proper perspective. Frees me to make > decisions that> others might not like. Frees me to try to do the right thing, even > though it> may not poll well..."> > "The death penalty is a difficult issue for supporters as well as > its> opponents. I have a reverence for life; my faith teaches that life > is a gift> from our Creator. In a perfect world, life is given by God and only > taken by> God. I hope someday our society will respect life, the full spectrum > of> life, from the unborn to the elderly. I hope someday unborn children > will be> protected by law and welcomed in life. I support the death> penalty because I believe, if administered swiftly and justly, > capital> punishment is a deterrent against future violence and will save > other> innocent lives. Some advocates> of life will challenge why I oppose abortion yet support the death > penalty;> to me, it's the difference between innocence and guilt."> > > "Today, two weeks after Jeb's inauguration, in the church in > downtown> Austin, the pastor Mark Craig was telling me that my reelection as > the first> Governor to win back-to-back four- year terms in the history of the > state of> Texas was a beginning, not an end.... People are starved for > faithfulness.> He talked of the need for honesty in> government; he warned that leaders who cheat on their wives will > cheat their> country,> will cheat their colleagues, will cheat themselves. The minister > said that> America is starved for honest leaders. He told the story of Moses, > asked by> God to lead his> people to a land of milk and honey. Moses had a lot of reasons to > shirk the> task. As the> pastor told it, Moses' basic reaction was, "Sorry, God, I'm busy. > I've got a> family. I've got sheep to tend. I've got a life". "Who am I that I > should go> to Pharaoh, and bring the sons of Israel out of Egypt?" The people > won't> believe me, he protested. I'm not a very good speaker. "Oh, my Lord, > send, I> pray, some other person," Moses pleaded. But God did not, and Moses> ultimately did his bidding, leading his people through forty years > of> wilderness and wandering, relying on God for strength and direction > and> inspiration. People are "starved for leadership,"Pastor Craig said, > "starved> for leaders who have> ethical and moral courage. "It is not enough to have an ethical > compass to> know right from wrong, he argued. America needs leaders who have the > moral> courage to do what> is right for the right reason. It's not always easy or convenient > for> leaders to step forward, he acknowledged; remember, even Moses had > doubts.> "He was talking to you," my mother later said. The pastor was, of > course,> talking to all of us, challenging each one of us to make the most of > our> lives, to assume the mantle of leadership and responsibility > wherever we> find it. He was calling on us to use whatever power we have, in > business, in> politics, in our communities, and in our families, to do good for > the right> reason. And the sermon spoke directly to my heart and my life."... > "There> was no magic moment of decision. After talking with my family during > the> Christmas holidays, then hearing the rousing sermon to make most of > every> moment during my inaugural church service, I gradually felt more > comfortable> with the prospect of a presidential campaign.> My family would love me, my faith would sustain me, no matter what."> > "During the more than half century of my life, we have seen an > unprecedented> decay> in our American culture, a decay that has eroded the foundations of > our> collective values and moral standards of conduct. Our sense of > personal> responsibility has declined dramatically, just as the role and> responsibility of the federal government have increased. The > changing> culture blurred the sharp contrast between right and wrong> and created a new standard of conduct: "If it feels good, do it." > and "If> you've got a problem, blame somebody else." Individuals are not > responsible> for their actions, the new culture said, we are all victims of > forces beyond> our control. We went from a> culture of sacrifice and saving to a culture obsessed with grabbing > all the> gusto. We went from accepting responsibility to assigning blame. As> government did more and more, individuals were required to do less > and less.> The new culture said if people were poor,> the government should feed them. If someone had no house, the > government> should provide one. If criminals are not responsible for their acts, > then> the answers are not prisons, but social programs."...> > "For our culture to change, it must change one heart, one soul, and > one> conscience at a time. Government can spend money, but it cannot put > hope in> our hearts or a sense of purpose in our lives."...> > "But government should welcome the active involvement of people who > are> following a religious imperative to love their neighbors through> after-school programs, child care, drug treatment, maternity group > homes,> and a range of other services. Supporting these> men and women - the soldiers in the armies of compassion - is the > next bold> step of welfare reform, because I know that changing hearts will > change our> entire society."> > "During the opening months of my presidential campaign, I have > traveled our> country> and my heart has been warmed. My experiences have reinvigorated my > faith in> the greatness of Americans. They have reminded me that societies are > renewed> from the bottom up, not the top down. Everywhere I go, I see people > of love> and faith, taking time to help a neighbor in need... These people > and> thousands like them are the heart and soul and greatness of America. > And I> want to do my part. I am running for President because I believe > America> must seize this moment, America must lead. We must give our> prosperity a greater purpose, a purpose of peace and freedom and > hope. We> are a great nation of good and loving people. And together, we have > a charge> to keep."> > (Spread this around on the Internet . . it will drive the Fourth > Estate> crazy that they no longer have control over what "the people" see > and hear)> ORO (08/14/00; 07:57:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 34927) Goldfly - fractured and layered competitive sovereignties The idea is that sovereignties with the most attractive conditions will attract labor, capital investment, and cultural development. Overlapping sovereignties structured in layers compete with each other in providing the best service at the lowest cost. The larger sovereignties compete in the same way among each other and in the degree of competition among their political subdivisions, and among the layers of sovereignty.This is true so long as: 1. Overwhelming force is not a practical means for eliciting tribute among sovereigns. i.e. when many individual top level sovereignties and groupings of them are capable of inflicting total destruction of each other, while occupying forces stand to obtain no benefit because the cost of occupation can not be recouped from the tribute (thus leading to the end of direct colonialism).2. Governments of the sovereignties do not form a cartel in order to avoid competition. See the latest developments in OECD, G-7 and 8, G-10, etc. attempting to prevent "harmful tax competition": i.e. any competition. As the conditions defined as "harmful" include the preservation of the following rights: to privacy (bank info disclosure and the end to anonymity),to property (assistance in enforcing other government's confiscatory practices), of movement (by enforcing imposition of "exit taxes" on those who cancel their citizenship in other jurisdictions), to liberty (by extradition of "offenders" who have not committed a crime recognized by the extraditing sovereignty).Also, the continuing institutionalization of the ownership of citizens by their state, rather than the other way round.3. Trade is sufficiently free to allow the advanages in protection of person and property (regulation and taxation) in one sovereignty to accrue to those who move productive activity there, rather than be absorbed by tarrif in the sales market. Henri (08/14/00; 07:56:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 34926) Bonedaddy Msg 34885 I was touched by your post. A voice of sanity in a wilderness of fear and deceit. Excerpt:"...Reading the posts here at the forum, I sense a lot of consternation at times. When things don't play out as we clearly see that they should, sometimes we wonder out loud if we're the ones who are nuts. Those who post here are level headed and reasonable folks, but we don't live in an age of reason. We live in an age where GREED IS EXTOLLED AS A VIRTUE. Find a person who is truly content. It may be a challenge, but try. What we are apt to discover, if we study such a person, is almost a complete absence of lust. Lust and contentment cannot share the mind of the same person. Greed is simply the lust for money and the power it can bring. Not too many generations ago, some men lusted for GOLD. But that was minor in comparison to the lust of the "wizards" that create wealth by sorcery from the elements of paper and electrons. In the end of course, their "magic" will be exposed and their "money" will fail. GOLD will stand the test of time. Buy enough GOLD now to be reasonable and sensable. I would not advise anyone to borrow to do this. After the "new paradigm" is on the ash heap of history, along with all of the other times it was "different", the GOLD we've aquired with patience and forthought will get us through the lean times. The GOLD is simply a tool. As far as lust vs. contentment goes, I struggle to work this one out. I ponder, whether or not, the objects of my affection are things that promise to bring me temporary contentment? In my heart, I know that true contentment can only be found in the giving of thanks for what I already have."End Bonedaddy excerpt.My Thoughts on Contentment and LustI know in my heart that I am content and that I also have lust. These are not mutually exclusive concepts except in the context in which you have placed them... Lust to attain contentment by acquiring enough "money". That is a fool's game and not the real challenge in any sense. To be successful at the task one cannot play by the rules. One must understand that the "game" as presented is rigged with rules that change. The victims look to see what others have done in order to get ahead and then follow that path. In so doing, they become the unwitting victims of the rule makers. The rules are constructed/changed to contain and feed upon the energy of the mainstream. Standing in the bustle of the traffic it is difficult to see any order to it. Only when we stand outside the flow can we adequately observe the ebb and flow and predict the motion effectively. And this makes all the difference (Frost?...the path less traveled? not exactly).Contrary to an extreme (and awnry...hence the handle "Henri" pronounced as in the French), I did not follow path specified by my father nor his father before him. A work ethic (yes and no) but the path definitely not. I did not plan my future and work my plan. Rather, I refuse to do either and choose to live life on the edge of insanity. The path I follow is the one that has "heart" at the moment. I find I did not have to sacrifice anything in order to exist in this way. I have unexplainably found that I was nearly always in the right place at the right time. I have exploited an early affinity and interest for the sciences into a confortable home and family that are debt free and am ready to shift directions at a moments opportunity.Am I content? Yes, because I know I have arrived here by the grace of something much greater than the rat race which I continually avoid placing myself within. I did not play by the "rules" nor will I. What do I lust after? Why life itself. All the rest just follows. I can't explain it any better. In a way, I am a seeker of the way. The "way" is identified by its "heart" content. What is heart? It is that which advances my understanding of the way things really are. I accumulate gold now as a tool to use in the future that will allow me to continue on the path I choose. I do not lust for its gleam, although I have to admit it is appealing. The time is still now for accumulation of this barbarous relic, there will be a time to let go of it as well. When? Time will tell. Right now it just feels right to exchange units of credit for it. My instincts tell me it is the path with "heart". One thing I do know. The time to let go of it will be when the act of letting go provides "enough" cushion to grasp the next opportunity and work through its "learning curve" without the need to hurry or be pressed in a struggle for survival. This step is but one of a myriad that I persue daily along the way. Black Blade (08/14/00; 07:14:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 34925) Pd manipulation? Looks like COMEX got their wish. Pd is now down $43.00 at $735.00. Goldfly (08/14/00; 06:28:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 34924) ORO BTW, I don't mean any offense by that. I'm just trying to get where you're coming from.Because no matter what form of government people take, some are going to be imposing their will on others.gf Black Blade (08/14/00; 06:21:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 34923) "Morning Wakeup Call" Source: BridgeNews Asia Precious Metals Review: Spot gold rises on short-covering Tokyo--Aug. 14--Spot gold easily broke its previous resistance of U.S. $275 per ounce early in Asia on Monday due to short-covering which was triggered by Friday's price rises in the U.S. market, dealers said. Short-covering is expected to continue pushing up gold prices in the European market, they said. However, the price of silver, platinum and palladium moved within a narrow band in sluggish trade. (Story .2200)Black Blade: Not much news at the beginning of the new week. PGM traders are taking profits amid confusion over Russian claims of deliveries. The claims are that these phantom PGMs have been delivered for the past several months. The Japanese and auto-manufacturers sure wish that these phantom metals would magically appear in their hands. Supposedly the metals are in Swiss vaults. We shall see. Meanwhile, PGM prices are lower in Europe. Hopefully platinum will fall considerably as it would be nice to accumulate some physical before PGMs resume rising again. Still, gold and silver look good at these prices. "Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored" - Aldous HuxleyNYMEX to hike palladium margins on Aug 14, 16 and 18 New York--Aug. 11--The New York Mercantile Exchange said it will increase the margins on palladium futures on Aug. 14, 16 and 18. As of the close of business on Aug. 14, margins will be raised on the August and September contracts to $60,000 from $45,000 for clearing members; to $66,000 from $49,500 for members and to $81,000 from $60,750 for customers. (Story .15103)Black Blade: Uh-Huh! Yep, Pd supplies are just flooding in, you bet! Gotta raise margins and shake out the riff-raff. This will likely help to lower Pt prices on the opening markets.Meanwhile, S&P Futures are up +2.70, Fair Value up +1.97 indication a weak positive opening on Wall Street, probably a continuing tale of two diverging markets (DOW vs. NASDAQ). Oil is down -$0.03 at $30.99/bbl practically unchanged. Au is down -$0.50 at $274.30, Ag down -$0.02 at $4.87, Pt unchanged at $565.00 ($568.00 London AM), and Pt down -$18.00 at $760.00 ($765.00 London AM) on Russian rumors and increased margin requirements on the COMEX. Ulysses (08/14/00; 06:01:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 34922) Perplexed re#34910 http://www.usagold.com Send your excellent letter to LewRockwell.com. Maybe he will post it. Good luck and keep the faith! Goldfly (08/14/00; 06:00:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 34921) ORO Are you an anarchist then?gf SteveH (08/14/00; 05:41:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 34920) That which is made can be unmade So, if those who seek to control gold control gold and why; when will they uncontrol it and why?Son: Dad, how come old photographs are always black & white? Didn't they havecolor film back then? Dad: Sure they did. In fact those old photographs ARE incolor. It's just the WORLD was black & white then. Son: Really? Dad: Yep.The world didn't turn color until sometime in the 1930s,and it was pretty grainy color for a while, too. Son: That's really weird. Dad: Well, truth is stranger than fiction. Son: But then why are old PAINTINGS in color?! If the world was black & white,wouldn't artists have painted it that way? Dad: Not necessarily, alot of great artist were insane. Son: But... but how could they have painted in color anyway? Wouldn't theirpaints have been shades of gray back then? Dad: Of course, but they turned colors like everything else did in the 30s. Son: So why didn't old black & white photos turn color too? Dad: Because they were color pictures of black & white, remember? Son: The world is a complicated place.from an old Calvin and Hobbes HI - HAT (08/14/00; 04:43:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 34919) wolavka Ditto........ASA...AEM...glorious future too..... Topaz (08/14/00; 04:33:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 34918) BB- re Behrman If I recall, the "Panel" were far more "Bullish" several Mth's ago than the article alludes to No?The PGM reference to Bank involvement gel's well with my They-v-Them thinking ie: One faction (The $ brigade) control the Au/Ag component of the SDR while the other have contrived to net the PGM/Oil market ramping up these commodities in retaliation for the low POG.I realise the ref is out of context (Mr B implied the Plats were being held back as Collateral) but still it's worth watching. wolavka (08/14/00; 04:30:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 34917) Dec gold tonites high 281.60, I wonder why???????????????points of resistance on upside284289291298watch for selling at these points, only to be bought back on dips and driven higher. HI - HAT (08/14/00; 04:27:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 34916) Golden Truth............OIL FORCES Very interesting article. All in our dream world is relative. Laws of Thermodynamics are not.Irresistable force will move lesser objects.Standing behind gold barrior will lessen impact. Topaz (08/14/00; 04:03:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 34915) G.T.- G. Hook http://gata.org/ G.T.That WAS an interesting read! It's clear to me that "eventually" we will be vindicated. A buy/hold strategy along with a bit of good old home grown protection will do the trick. It sure is good to have you around GT, as it is to watch your "evolution" to a full blown Au Bug- plan/think long term (5-10 yrs)and forget the $/AU ratio.watch "Mr Squiggle" for entertainment only. G. Hook-De LORD he say "dig ANOTHER hole" ;-)He also say- go to link above. Black Blade (08/14/00; 03:24:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 34914) theminingweb metals forecast http://m1.mny.co.za/MGProph.nsf/Current/8525686D002E1F9580256939007849B4?OpenDocument Excerpt from the link above:Persistent poor performance and shrinking volumes have discouraged the Panel's bullion bulls and they have downgraded their forecasts. The average three and twelve month gold forecasts are only marginally above the market forward quotes and illustrate their disenchantment. If we deleted the three optimists, the average forecast would be around $275, a poor price for gold. It is thus hardly surprising that forlorn producers are losing patience and are selling. The weakness of the Australian dollar and rand is not helping as the currency depreciation offsets the slide in the dollar gold price. The gloom is hardly surprising. August, traditionally, is a miserable month for gold and silver and huge bear positions have been built up on New York's Comex and the over the counter market. This is the main reason why gold rallied from its low point of $272 to $275 in New York on Friday. The dollar weakened slightly and bears covered their short position. Indeed the technical position i.e. majority bear view, is one of the few short term bull points for gold and contrary thinkers are taking this into account. In a few weeks the Indian matrimonial season followed by the Festival of Lights will raise demand there, while jewellery manufacturers will be building up stocks ahead of Christmas. The market hopes that this seasonal demand will offset persistent central bank sales from the Bank of England Swiss National Bank and others. Platinum and palladium continue to flummox forecasters. These metals are impossible to predict mainly because of the dearth of supplies from Russia. I met a senior official from the Russian Finance Ministry the other day and he insists that both platinum and palladium have been exported this year and that the metal is being held as collateral by Swiss and other Western banks. Moreover, Russia's policy is to obtain maximum prices, he said. Palladium and platinum contract negotiations with the Japanese have continued for five weeks and the Russians say that supplies will soon be forthcoming. Our panelists from Standard Bank, Sumitomo and A1 are sceptical and predict that palladium could hit $850. Indeed MKS has $1000 in its sights. Platinum will continue to trade in the present high range. But trade is exceedingly thin, so the market is likely to remain exceedingly volatile. By: Neil Behrmann Black Blade: Interesting range of forecasts for PMs. TownCrier (08/14/00; 00:45:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 34913) The Great American Wake-up Call http://www.gold.org/ Excerpts from the latest Gold Demand Trends quarterly report of the World Gold Council, press release, and launch speech:Demand for jewellery in the second quarter was 695.3 tonnes, 1% above the second quarter of 1999. That brought first half jewellery demand to 1,396.4 tonnes, 4% above the level of a year ago. There were outstanding gains in jewellery consumption for the first half of this year in the following countries: * Turkey, up 49%* Mexico, up 17% * Malaysia, up 22% * Taiwan, up 13% * Thailand, up 69% * United Kingdom, up 12%. [Here is the wake-up call...please read the following excerpt carefully. Seemingly having the most to lose, are we being too complacent, while the rest of the world continues to "cash out" of cash in favor of the yellow metal?]The demand for gold as an investment during the second quarter was 93.7 tonnes, 22% below the level of a year ago, with a sharp fall in sales of new coins in the U.S. accounting for almost all the decline. U.S. coin sales last year were exceptionally high on Y2K concerns. Elsewhere in the world, investment demand held steady.George Milling-Stanley said, "In view of these developments in investment demand during the second quarter, the continued strength of overall demand for gold during the period was remarkable. There are several other reasons for encouragement. Demand remained strong in a period when physical demand often experiences some seasonal weakness, and it was maintained in spite of both a higher average price of $280 an ounce, and the fact that the price remained well above the 20-year lows reached last summer." Simply Me (08/14/00; 00:20:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 34912) Politics/Gold Gush, Bore, Buchanan, et al...politicians all. Not an economist among them. I don't think I'd want an economist running the country anyway. I'd never understand his speeches.Besides...it's all set up for George, Jr. and his buddy Dick (Council on Foreign Relations=NWO advocate)Cheney to win.And after the elections, the economy is allowed to slide into the dumper. Then Sadam acts up, giving Bush/Cheney a chance to intervene in the Middle East again. Gives the military-industrial complex a new capital infusion; gives the U.S. a chance to do some arm-twisting for badly needed oil; gives Bush, Sr. the last laugh. Bush will sprinkle a few promised tax cuts throughout his first four years and get re-elected. At the end of Bush's 8 years (just BEFORE Republican economic changes are beginning to show up in increased prosperity), people get sick of the inflation/recession/depression and vote a Democrat into office in 2008 (just for the sake of change). Gore will still be young enough to take over and take all the credit. That would fit with his M.O. I don't think he really wants the presidency now anyway. It's too hard to fund your pet social programs when the economy is on the blink.Why worry...they've got it all planned. I'm gonna write in my vote for Alan Keyes. Call it a protest against the NWO.Get GOLD! Because THEY say "not to"!simply me Walter Cronkite expounds on the NWO? He was only a TV news anchor, for Pete's sake. Just a news reporter...not a news maker. A kindly face and deep voice that we all know. ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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