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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 3/13/2006
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Ten Bears
(3/13/06; 22:24:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 142409)
Bob Chapman
http://www.theinternationalforecaster.com/ptrainwreck.php?Id=114
Worth a look. imho.
Goldendome
(03/13/06; 21:40:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 142408)
Possibly a housekeeping matter.
I just stopped in to the Closing Goldcoin Prices window here at Centenial. The closing spot price of gold for today shows $556.20. Curious--that seems about $10 high. Is the price of all the bullion coins shown then priced off of that figure?
We needs to know, in case we grab the hotline to place our orders. Or, is this just a test of our collective awarenesses?
Goldilox
(3/13/06; 21:31:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 142407)
GOLDMAN ZEROS JAPAN
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
snip:
A news item was quietly reported – in Japan of all places - back on March 3, 2006 which I strongly feel is of the utmost importance. This piece involved a change in the way things are reported on the Tokyo Commodities Exchange [TOCOM]. The changes are to take effect as of April 1, 2006 – no fooling.
Right from the Reuters News release,
'TOKYO, March 3 (Reuters) - The Tokyo Commodity Exchange hopes to attract more foreigners and a wider range of investors, including institutions, with plans to bolster players' anonymity and list new products, a senior exchange official said on Friday. TOCOM, Japan's top commodity exchange, aims to discontinue its practice of disclosing daily outstanding positions for each member starting early in the next business year, which begins in April.'
This is important and relevant because – like the Fed's discontinuance of M3 Money Supply Reporting – it signifies the removal of another measure of transparency that promotes/ensures accountability on the part of all players in the financial system.
The soon to take effect changes on the TOCOM will bring that exchange more in line with the opacity that has long been exhibited by New York's COMEX [affectionately known and referred to by insiders and critics as the CRIMEX] – where open interest data are clumsily aggregated and reported to the public close to one week in arrears via the COT Report.
It says here, that the reason being offered [that of anonymity and to attract business] is as credible as the Fed's claim that ceasing M3 Money Supply reporting later this month was designed to "save money." The reality, I'm afraid, is making the actions of TOCOM participants "stealthy" more likely has its roots in the factual account outlined below:
Appearances vs. Reality
The activities of Goldman Sachs "shorting gold" on TOCOM was first brought to my attention by Adrian Douglas via Bill Murphy's daily Midas commentary at Lemetropolecafe.com. On Jan. 10, 2006 Adrian Douglas reported,
Today Jan 10 Goldman Sachs has gone more short on TOCOM. They have not changed their long position it is still at 3611 as it was on Jan 5. The Short position has increased to 20072. Their short position has increased about 6000 contracts in 5 days.
This is a big losing position with the large rise in gold from $489 on Dec 21 when they first started loading up on these contracts.
From this, we can surmise that Goldman's gold "short position" stood at about 14,000 contracts on Jan. 5, 2006 when the price of gold stood at 526.00. Since that date, Goldman's "long position" has ranged from the number above to 6,016 as of Feb. 23, 2006.
Goldman's "shorting" of gold on the Tokyo Commodities Exchange [TOCOM] – described above – appears to be at odds with this Bloomberg article that cites a Goldman Report dated Dec. 19, 2005 – where gold was named a top trading pick:
You have to love this article that just hit the wire at Bloomberg.
Cartel Head Honcho Goldman Sachs is cited….
QUOTE: Bullion is a "top trading pick'' for 2006, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the third-biggest securities company, said in a Dec. 19 report, citing concern over inflation, currency values and the U.S. trade deficit. END
Oh really! Goldman Sachs is bullish on gold? At the end of the article they list the predictions of all the analysts for the gold price for 2006. Goldman Sachs prediction is….wait for it….$515! That really is a bullish call, a real top trading recommendation considering we closed at $530.3 on the first trading day of the year.
Barclays comes in with a call of $465. What a bunch of clowns! They probably have the right digits but not arranged in the right order! Even JP Morgan has predicted $558 and that must have brought tears to their eyes to go to press with that!
-Goldilox
It looks like market opacity is all the rage! "
Trust us, you don't need to worry your silly head with "numbers. Besides, we just can't phony them up to be believeable anymore!"
I guess that's what we get for openly complaining that the CPI-PPI are complete fabrications.
Goldilox
(3/13/06; 20:38:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 142406)
Taxation
"The Coming Dark Age"
Here's a couple more paragraphs on the ill effects of overtaxation, seemingly the same issue sending US corporations offshore.
"Taxation implies both costs and benefits. As time goes on, though, the costs become increasingly likely to outweigh the benefits. The thirst for revenues is more consistent than the provision of good governance. During the eighteenth century, the French authorities imposed a huge tax burden on the wealthy port of La Rochelle, but neglected to defend it with the military forces that these taxes funded. In consequence, La Rochelle's merchant shipping suffered at the hands of the British navy, and its wealth-producing potential was eventually destroyed. Spain espoused numerous counterproductive policies that created a straitjacket for Spanish entrepreneurs. Internal customs barriers discouraged trade, inhibited capital accumulation and generally kept industry in a backward state. In this way, the government short-sightedly attacked the basis of its own prosperity.
Excessive taxation was certainly an important factor in the decline of Rome. In the later stages of the empire, the middle classes were being destroyed by tax demands that they could not sustain. The curiales, or municipal officers, suffered enormously from their hereditary position as tax collectors. They were obliged to produce a certain fixed amount of revenue from the areas that were assigned to them, although generally they found great difficulty in meeting the demands. In most cases, they could only escape by taking flight.
The growth of taxation had become self-sustaining, as the bureaucracy consumed vast amounts just on maintaining itself. The vast size and deteriorating quality of the civil service in the late Roman empire was notorious. It had become a self-perpetuating body in which posts were hereditary. There were many concerted attempts to rein in this unmanageable officialdom but the very repetitiousness of such measures shows that they must have been almost wholly ineffective. Frauds and extortion weighed so heavily on taxpayers that broad areas which had once been productive were taken out of cultivation. It simply became no longer worthwhile to raise crops because too much was taken away by the state, whether legitimately or corruptly. By the fifth century, the peasants were paying one third of their gross product in taxes (comparable to contemporary rates). In north Africa, the burden was felt so severely that many cultivators simply gave up and fled.
Goldilox
(3/13/06; 20:33:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 142405)
Reserve Status
@ Thoreauly,
Now that I read it again, it is a tangential answer, but reserve status only lasts as long as the players in the game agree to the "currency" - a lot like poker chips.
If the smaller players start to doubt the "full faith and credit" of the game's bank, it changes things, and perhaps not all that slowly.
My understanding of Another's tale of oil and gold is that those changes were being effected during the 70's oil crises and 1980 gold rush.
Goldilox
(3/13/06; 20:17:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 142404)
Politics vs. Economics
http://www.darkage.fsnet.co.uk/
@ Thoreauly,
As a response, let me quote from Marc Widdowson's book, "The Coming Dark Age", where he describes the ebb and flow of many civilizations past. Although I don;t agree with all of his assertions, I believe he has done a great job of fitting "conspicuous consumption" into the "ebb side" of the equation. I have included the URL to download the book for more investigation, as well.
"Successful societies live well. They are wealthy and they develop a taste for luxury. Ordinary people aspire to the standard of living that their betters have customarily enjoyed. The Admonitions of Ipuwer observe that ‘paupers now possess fine things’, while ‘she who had no box, now has a coffer’ and ‘he that slept on a board, now has a bed’. The rich citizens of classical Athens became increasingly given to conspicuous consumption, and built themselves far more splendid houses than those with which their ancestors had been content. In the first century AD, Seneca commented wryly on the rather dingy and basic bathroom of a house that once belonged to Scipio, the destroyer of Carthage some 200 years before. ‘Who is there who could bear to have a bath in such surroundings nowadays?’, he asked. ‘We think ourselves poorly off if the walls are not ablaze with large and costly circular mirrors, if our Alexandrian marbles are not decorated with panels of Numidian marble’ and if the water does not pour ‘from silver taps’, all of which excesses, Seneca said, are ‘just for the sake of spending money’.
Of course, there is nothing wrong with a more comfortable lifestyle in itself. The trouble is that a society may indulge itself beyond what it can afford. Xerxes is said to have ruined the Persian empire by indulging in a welter of extravagance that was more than his coffers could bear. In China at the beginning of the seventeenth century, aristocrats were creating great private domains that drove peasants away from the land. They were seemingly oblivious to the fact that all their wealth ultimately rested on the land's productive value, and that only industrious peasants could realise it.
People in rich nations develop a growing distaste for hard labour. They wish to enjoy their wealth rather than continue the hard struggle that led to its accumulation. The Admonitions of Ipuwer complain about the fact that craftspeople no longer cared to toil. The Romans once derided the Greeks for their softness, yet they themselves became increasingly pampered by a state that provided all sorts of amenities. Late Rome was equipped with eleven public baths through the generosity of successive emperors. These not only provided for luxurious bathing at various temperatures but also served as elaborate leisure centres, in which many people, belonging to a wide spectrum of social and economic classes, spent a substantial part of each day. The desire for luxury was rising, but the inclination to work for it was lagging behind. A book published in 1900 similarly noted how lazy British workers had become in comparison to their German and American counterparts. They were eager to consume but reluctant to work and resistant to innovation.
This kind of runaway growth in expenditure, undermined by more sluggish growth in income, played a part in the decline of ancient Etruria. There was a shift in emphasis from production to consumption, i.e. to a society with more consumers and fewer producers. The Etruscan taste for fine things seems to have outrun the purchasing power of the people's earnings and accumulated wealth. That is to say, the Etruscan taste for consumption outran the Etruscan taste for the effort and self-discipline needed to supply it.
The later Roman armies even gave up wearing armour on the ground that it was too heavy. The Romans’ upbringing no longer prepared them for strenuous effort. Their authority as well as their commerce was at risk. For a while, they could live in idleness on the taxes that they collected from their provinces. However, the provinces eventually realised that the all-conquering Romans had become soft and ineffectual, and they withdrew their support. The Romans had come to rely on the credit and reputation that had been built up by their forebears. That credit and reputation eventually ran out.
Chapter 9, "The Camel's Back" from "The Coming Dark Age"
Thoreauly
(3/13/06; 19:14:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 142403)
@ Pritcho & Goldilox
But what of this statement?
"The role of the dollar as reserve currency for world trade and central banks is fundamentally a political one."
In other words, how long can politics trump economics? How long can fantasy trump reality?
This is not a rhetorical question. I ask in all seriousness.
Goldilox
(3/13/06; 18:28:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 142402)
Engdahl
Pritcho,
Nice of you to waken him from his slumber! Hope you were gentle.
PRITCHO
(03/13/06; 18:16:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 142401)
Re --Whether We Will See An Iranian Oil Bourse - - - Any Time Soon ?
Recently I read an article entitled "Calculating the Risk of War in Iran" --comprehensive enough but not mentioning AT ALL the possibility of an Iranian Oil Bourse.
I emailed the Author (William Engdahl, a German historian)
who also wrote "A Century Of War : Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order" --and he kindly replied with his explanation that he didn't see it happening at all & gave abbreviated reasons.
Just a few days later he published his reasons in full in an article entitled "Iran's Oil Bourse a Casus Belli?"
I recommend both articles --not too long & worth the read.
Cut & Paste:
http://www.currentconcerns.ch/archive/2006/02/20060201.php
http://www.currentconcerns.ch/archive/2006/02/20060202.php
TownCrier
(3/13/06; 18:03:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 142400)
HEADLINE: Arab central banks move assets out of dollar
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article351127.ece
14 March 2006 -- Middle Eastern anger over the decision by the US to block a Dubai company from buying five of its ports hit the dollar yesterday as a number of central banks said they were considering switching reserves into euros.
The United Arab Emirates, which includes Dubai, said it was looking to move one-tenth of its dollar reserves into euros, while the governor of the Saudi Arabian central bank condemned the US move as "discrimination".
Separately, Syria responded to US sanctions against two of its banks by confirming plans to use euros instead of dollars for its external transactions.
...analysts warned other central banks might follow suit.
Last week the US caused dismay after political opposition to the takeover of P&O by Dubai Ports World forced DPW to agree to transfer P&O's US port management business to a "US entity" .
..."Investors are going to take this into consideration [and] will look at investment opportunities through new binoculars."
..."Is it okay for US companies to buy everywhere but it is not okay for other companies to buy the US?"
..."The issue is whether we will see similar attitudes taken by other Middle Eastern banks. It is a question of momentum."
^---(from url)---^
Following hot on the heels of the official U.S. blockade of the Chinese bid on Unocal, as I said early on when this new round of resistance was raised, this indeed was the feared economic fall-out of a subsequent blockade of the Dubai bid on the ports -- the pebbles that start the avalanche in a flight from dollars as a reserve asset.
As the dollar's fate is not in your hands, it behooves you to preserve your personal purchasing power with a healthy diversification into gold.
Waste no more time in your decision-making. Evaluate your fincancial position this evening and call USAGOLD-Centennial this week for consultation and best prices on gold coins and bullion to diversify your portfolio.
R.
spikedog
(3/13/06; 17:56:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 142399)
Top o' the Hill
Tis an awe inspiring view from up here. Even if it only be for a fleeting moment, thank you for the opportunity to take in the sights.
Gandalf the White
(3/13/06; 17:42:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 142398)
BUT -- The --- "KING(S) of the HILL" -- may be two persons ---
$$$$ $548.0 $$$$ YGM (3/10/06; 09:27:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 142285)
as that is Sir Yukon Gold Miner "hugging" Sir Spikedog.
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(3/13/06; 17:36:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 142397)
Sir TIH --- The LINK is "OFFICIAL" and states that "The Bourse" ----
QUOTE
The country, which also holds the world?s second largest gas reserves after Russia, has planned to put an end to the greenback monopoly on oil trades by expediting efforts to establish an oil bourse by April.
Once the much-publicized oil bourse is established, the long-sought objective of replacing the US dollar with the euro in OPEC transactions will come one major step closer to reality.
The oil bourse, which will be established as envisaged in the Fourth Five-Year Plan (2005-2010), has received support from both the Parliament and the government in Iran. It will enable oil-rich Iran to regulate prices at home without having to follow other countries? dollar-pegged trading system.
UNQUOTE
===
Do you think that something is "LOST IN TREANSLATION" ?
(afterall these are EXPERTS with over 97 years of oil business experience)
<;-)
The Invisible Hand
(3/13/06; 16:58:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 142396)
Iranian Oil Bourse to start during New Year Holidays?
http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?NewsCode=41305&NewsKind=Current%20Affairs
The IOB would open on Monday March 20.
Here's an article which argues that it's official that Iran's oil industry is self-sufficient.
The text above the article says that Monday March 20 is part of the New Year Holiday.
SNIP
Happy Nowrouz!
During the Iranian New Year Holidays (Nowrouz), March 20 to 03 April 2006, IranMania Independent News will be running a limited news service. Only major news stories will be covered. From all the News Team we wish you a happy new year.
==
May we have a golden Nowrouz!
Gandalf the White
(3/13/06; 16:53:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 142395)
oops !
Looks as if interuptions in communications are causing minor data errors on the Hobbit system, BUT ---
Sir Spikedog --- IS STILL THE "KING of the HILL" !!!!
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(3/13/06; 16:48:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 142394)
"KING OF THE HILL" report !
Preliminary data from the Hobbit communication system to me in the depths of Morador, indicate that TODAY, the COMEX April contract price RANGE was between $542.5 and $547.7 with the SETTLEMENT of $547.3 for and Change of +$5.7
THEREFORE, (if this is indeed correct) the following entries were, at one time today, atop the Hill,
---
$$$$ $547.0 $$$$ spikedog (3/12/06; 22:51:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 142373)
$$$$ $546.5 $$$$ Topaz (3/4/06; 20:26:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 142112)
$$$$ $545.6 $$$$ R Powell (3/12/06; 08:10:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 142343)
$$$$ $545.2 $$$$ Tate (3/12/06; 15:29:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 142358)
$$$$ $544.8 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (3/11/06; 20:08:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 142331)
$$$$ $544.4 $$$$ Black Blade (3/12/06; 18:36:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 142362)
$$$$ $543.7 $$$$ 24Wortel (3/12/06; 11:21:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 142350)
$$$$ $543.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (3/9/06; 15:50:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 142260)
===
and the "KING OF THE HILL" is:
Sir Spikedog !
CONGRATULATIONS !!
<;-)
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(3/13/06; 16:32:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 142393)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has been
updated.
If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to
request our free
introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered
by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look
forward to working with you.
MONDAY Market Excerpts
March 13 (from MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed Monday with a gain of more than $6 an ounce, recouping part of last week's losses of nearly 5%, as some weakness in the U.S. dollar and ongoing tension over Iran's nuclear-refining program helped renew investment demand for the precious metal.
"The marginally weaker dollar, coupled with the relentless violence in Iraq and the 'in-your-face' defiance emanating from Iran ... are keeping gold bugs on the alert," said Kitco's Jon Nadler, an investment products analyst. Overall, the price action in metals reflects "a 'catching our breath' attitude from the trading pits," he said.
The COMEX April futures contract rose $6.20 to close at $547.50, marking its highest session-ending level since last Tuesday. The contract closed Friday at its lowest level in more than two months, down 4.7%, or $26.70, for the week.
Prices are "drifting" between support that Nadler pegged at $530 to $540 and resistance around $550 to $552 an ounce. "We have to get some momentum behind it [or] else we sink lower again," he said. For the moment, the $535-to-$550 range "appears to present the path of least resistance," he said.
At the same time, "this period will still be looked at, in retrospect, as one of the opportune moments to have accumulated some gold for the nebulous future," Nadler said.
The dollar's recent strength "has certainly been one of the contributing factors in gold's six-week decline," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities. However, Doelling sees the dollar as having reached "an extremely overbought condition," raising prospects for what he said could be "a significant decline ... just the tonic for what currently ails the precious-metals markets."
With no major economic reports on tap to start the week, currency traders are looking ahead to market-moving releases later this week, including readings on monthly foreign capital flows, the consumer price index and housing starts.
---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---
Golden Lionheart
(3/13/06; 14:53:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 142392)
Counterfeit gold coins
I should have mentioned that this happened in Jeddah in the mid 1970's and in Damascus in the early 1980's. My interest in gold dates back to 1960!!
Goldilox
(3/13/06; 14:31:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 142391)
Gold Demand Rises 13% in Saudi Arabia
http://www.arabnews.com/?page=6§ion=0&article=79141&d=13&m=3&y=2006
snip:
JEDDAH, 13 March 2006 — Gold demand increased by 13 percent in Saudi Arabia, while it rose just five percent worldwide in 2005.
In Saudi Arabia, which represents a major market in the region, gold jewelry demand rose by 12 percent during the year compared to 2004, and by 13 percent in terms of both gold jewelry and retail investment sectors, according to the annual review of the regional office of World Gold Council (WGC) in Dubai.
This demand increase is due to the Kingdom's strong economy and the high spend capability. Also, it is expected that the demand will continue to grow similarly in 2006, especially in the context of the biggest budget ever announced by the Kingdom in addition to the increase of marketing activities by large scale gold jewelry manufactures and the WGC across the region.
The increase in gold demand prevailed in the Kingdom's neighboring Gulf countries including Turkey and Egypt. In the UAE, the total percentage of gold demand in 2005 remained positive to reach eight percent in spite of the small decrease in sales during the Q4 of the same year.
-Goldilox
It seems that personal demand for precious is growing wordwide, while supply, as noted by other posters is still dwindling.
Goldilox
(3/13/06; 13:58:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 142390)
Potentates "R" Us
@ ge,
Not surprising, as every coup in the world first gets military and financial support from the Men in Black under the auspices of "destabilization".
They can't have the resource nations dictating terms to the paper manipulators, or their entire bankster monopoly collapses. The first thing they did when the Saudis and Iranians started started shipping oil for dollars is get them locked into "external investments" in leiu of major infrastructure and industrial improvements.
Castro's revolution was bankrolled by the US, as was that of Ho Chi Minh, and Pinochet. Al Qaida was a CIA invented terrorist arm to disrupt the Soviets in Afghanistan, while Ollie and the boyz were trading guns for street drugs in Iran and Nicaragua. At the same time, they were playing Noriega's tune to keep the SA pipelines open.
Again, I suggest the "Money Masters" video posted on 2/17 to all who still believe that nationalism plays any real part in market and political instabilities. Gold is "kept in the closet" until such crises as 1933, and perhaps 1980, when they must address it's power directly.
ge
(3/13/06; 13:02:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 142389)
What Really Happened to the Shah of Iran by Engdahl
http://www.payvand.com/news/06/mar/1090.html
"Oh what a tangled web we weave, When first we practice to deceive"
mikal
(3/13/06; 11:53:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 142388)
@TC- Sharia always has been very gold friendly
Re: Sharia system - That's great news, especially when TPTB must counter every good story with 10 or more that give
the opposite impression. "DUCK DOWN, INCOMING!"
And without recalling the many particulars, given it's past and growing influence and usage, Sharia should likely go far beyond Britain.
Goldilox
(3/13/06; 10:48:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 142387)
Islamic Banking in Britain
I would assume that instead of charging "interest", they just up the bankster's "fees".
Already done by cut-rate mortgage lenders in the US.
But, I could be wrong.
TownCrier
(3/13/06; 10:29:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 142386)
Brown to support Islamic banking
http://www.bobsguide.com/guide/news/12805.html
The British chancellor is expected to unveil plans shortly to support Islamic banking services in the UK, reports suggest.
According to the Sunday Times, Gordon Brown wants to create "the most Islam-friendly economy in the western world" by removing many of the barriers to full participation in the country's banking system experienced by many British Muslims.
The newspaper claims that the chancellor has told Muslim leaders that he wants to develop a "level playing field" for financial services products, enabling those that are compliant with Islamic Sharia law to be provided more widely and establishing London as a western hub of Muslim banking.
Under Sharia law, financial products must not charge or earn any interest and must be provided in a completely different way to western products.
The Islamic banking sector is one of the fastest growing in the world.
A senior Treasury official said: "Making the UK and London a centre for Islamic finance means putting in place the tax and legislative framework that is supportive of Islamic products..."
Many of the UK's leading banks have unveiled Sharia compliant products and are keen to expand their Islamic banking services in order to meet growing demand.
^---(from url)---^
When your savings account can't earn interest to somewhat mitigate inflation's erosion of your money's purchasing power, you suddenly develop a keen understanding of the value of actual (tangible) property and hence gain further insights into the universal importance of tangible gold to savers of all stripes throughout the world.
R.
TownCrier
(3/13/06; 10:09:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 142385)
Analysts Say Gold Correction May Be Nearing End
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/060313/15/3zbnt.html
SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Gold may be ready for another upside tilt after last week suffering its biggest weekly drop in almost three months, some analysts and traders said Monday.
Bullion struck a 25-year high $575 an ounce early February driven by oil-related inflationary concerns, Mideast geopolitical tensions and general investment demand for commodities. But easing oil and a U.S. dollar buoyed by anticipated interest rate hikes saw the metal sink to a two-month low of $534 Friday.
A bounce to $545 in Asian trading Monday was credited to technical buying, some physical demand and fresh investor interest after last week's selloff and as the dollar ran out of steam against some currencies.
While participants remain cautious, some say Monday's performance may be a sign the metal's month-long correction is drawing to end.
Craig Ferguson, senior currency strategist at Australia's ANZ Investment Bank, in a report Monday said while gold could dip back below $535 support again, the next big move is likely to be upwards, back above $575, toward $590-$600/oz.
^---(from url)---^
Are they called 'dips' because that's what we feel like after we fail to recognize them or else neglect buying them?
R.
TownCrier
(3/13/06; 09:26:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 142384)
Gold May Rise From 3-Month Low on Investor Demand, Survey Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=71000001&sid=anPGzvkjXp20&refer=commodities
March 13 (Bloomberg) --
...``It is a very good time to buy,'' said George Ireland, chief investment officer of Boston-based Geologic Resource Partners, a $300 million venture capital and hedge fund. ``I don't believe gold is going to $1,000, but I would not be surprised to see $650 this year. I buy it as an alternative to investing in dollar-based securities.''
Gold for April delivery fell $26.70 an ounce last week, a three-month low. The drop surprised the majority of analysts surveyed Feb. 23 and Feb. 24, who predicted a gain. Bloomberg's weekly survey has forecast the direction of prices accurately in 58 of 98 weeks, or 59 percent of the time.
Gold's 18 percent gain last year outperformed the 3 percent rise in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index of stocks and a 2 percent return on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. index data.
The metal is up 4.3 percent since the end of December, compared with 2.7 percent for the S&P. The Merrill index shows holders of 10-year Treasury notes have lost about 2.1 percent.
``We've had such price appreciations, that this is a normal correction,'' said Mike Armbruster, a broker and analyst at Altavest Worldwide Trading Inc. in Mission Viejo, California. ``We're getting pretty close to some very strong support for gold. This is an area where there's an opportunity to get long.''
Gold gained 9.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2005 as the U.S. economy expanded 1.6 percent. The economy will likely grow 4.7 percent this quarter...
Trade Deficit
The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record $68.5 billion in January.
``$540 isn't a bad price considering the upside potential,'' said Phil Bryant, a travel agent in Denver, Colorado. Bryant said he considered gold as an alternative to stocks when it traded at $450. After leaving his investments in a money market for the past 12 months, he's looking to put 50 percent in gold, euros and international stocks.
``If it weren't for the huge trade deficit, I wouldn't be so concerned,'' said Bryant, 52. ``I'm not paranoid, but I just want to have a hedge in case things get worse with the economy. It's going to take a lot more for the deficit to get ironed out than a few good economic reports.''
^---(from url)---^
Phil, you're a giant among men. Amen.
R.
MK
(3/13/06; 09:15:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 142383)
Golden Lionheart, White Rose
Many years ago when the British Sovereign carried a substantial premium over the gold price, they were counterfeited. To my knowledge, they are no longer counterfeited.
We buy from reputable sources who have been importing gold coins for decades. They know what they are doing. Even so, we occasionally send a few tubes to one of the top counterfeiting experts in the United States for a spot check to make sure nothing slips through the system. (An old friend, he is a principle at one of the grading services, teaches the counterfeiting seminars for the American Numismatic Association and has many years experience in the field.) Thus far, we have not turned up any counterfeits. Over our many years in the pre-1933 gold coin field, we have not had a single coin returned to us as a counterfeit, and to our knowledge, never sold one though we have processed thousands of these coins.
Counterfeiting almost always occurs in coins with a high premium over the gold value -- like scarce $20 gold pieces, $10 gold pieces, etc. and rarely in coins that sell relatively close to bullion value. The reason for that is that most simple test of real gold is specific gravity -- an easy and inexpensive test which counterfeiters know they will have to pass in order to pass off a counterfeit. The British sovereigns you mentioned were counterfeited as you say with more gold than they should have in them in order to pass the specific gravity test -- the first line of defense for the gold industry. If they can't get through the first line of defense, counterfeiting becomes an unprofitable venture, thus almost all counterfeits, have the proper metal content.
On the British sovereign, by the way, you can't go by color, lustre alone. Coins minted in Perth or South Africa have a different look than those minted in Great Britain.
The best course of action for any investor is to buy his or her gold from reputable sources who have substantial experience -- and that applies whether the interest is in bullion coins, pre-1933 coins, or numismatics. If nothing else, the repurtable firm will stand behind their placements if the client is uncomfortable. We have a exchange policy with no questions asked on pre-1933 European gold coins like the British sovereign. Thus far we have not had a single coin returned as a suspected counterfeit. As a matter of fact, we rarely have coins returned to us for any reason.
Hope this clears up some of questions. Counterfeiting is not as big a problem as some pose it.
TownCrier
(3/13/06; 09:14:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 142382)
Gold -- $5 Liberties
http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/liberty.html
Patience, they say, is a virture. But sometimes it'll take you only just so far.
Blink, and an opportunity has passed you by. Buy? Bye-bye!
R.
White Rose
(3/13/06; 07:49:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 142381)
More on counterfeiting
I remember reading articles that Lebanon has become a center for counterfeiting rare gold coins. The counterfeits are made of gold. But it does explain why there are so many high quality gold coins on the market in the last 25 years. Let the buyer beware.
Personally, I buy coins with a very small premium over spot.
I also have a tester, which makes sure that Krugerrands and Eagles have the correct weight and size.
mikal
(3/13/06; 07:19:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 142380)
@Golden Lionheart
Thank you for the info. about Saudi Arabia!
The Marie Theresa Thaler(Crown) was produced by Austria, at least up until recently dated "about 1780". These are genuine "restrikes" and of silver.
The Gr. Britain sovereigns were indeed counterfeited, as I had also bought some in my early years of collecting. I reject them now because I recognize them by their color and especially the inferior quality(luster and strike). Italy may have been in a position to make them following the destruction of WW2.
Golden Lionheart
(3/13/06; 05:49:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 142379)
Genuine and not so genuine gold coins.
Years ago I used to live in Jeddah in Saudi Arabia and also in Damascus in Syria. There in the Gold Souks English Gold Sovereigns were plentiful. I questioned the sellers and they told me that they were produced quite recently in Italy and that the amount of gold in them was very slightly higher than in the original coins.
I got myself a stash of these coins. I wonder if Sir MK or someone from USA Gold would like to comment on this. I have no reason to believe that what they told me was n true.
On the subject of Saudi Arabia the currency used by the desert people was the Austrian Marie Theresa Crown a beautiful silver coin. All dated I think, from memory, about 1780, and probably once again of recent production.
Anyway old or not the contained gold and silver is the real thing.
gold_silver_bug
(3/13/06; 02:09:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 142378)
gold and silver price
Is silver going to outperform gold this year also???
Any thoughts?
Gandalf the White
(3/13/06; 00:01:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 142377)
TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
OFFICIAL LISTING of ENTRIES in the USAGOLD "Ides of March" POG CONTEST
Following are listed the POG CONTEST entries !
(Listed in order of DECREASING values)
===
$$$$ $750.0 $$$$ Beamer (3/3/06; 16:07:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 142093)
**** $606.6 **** mdgc (3/9/06; 09:02:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 142246)
$$$$ $601.0 $$$$ Armageddon (3/7/06; 18:25:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 142207)
$$$$ $600.0 $$$$ el dorado (3/6/06; 16:58:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 142174)
$$$$ $599.0 $$$$ contrarian (3/11/06; 01:22:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 142314)
$$$$ $587.0 $$$$ Sundeck (3/6/06; 21:09:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 142183)
$$$$ $585.8 $$$$ Waverider (3/4/06; 21:01:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 142114)
$$$$ $583.4 $$$$ Flatliner (3/3/06; 10:39:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 142088)
$$$$ $580.1 $$$$ Slowman (3/5/06; 15:33:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 142138)
$$$$ $580.0 $$$$ mikal (3/12/06; 22:32:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 142371)
$$$$ $578.9 $$$$ Matthew (3/11/06; 02:50:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 142315)
$$$$ $577.1 $$$$ Chally (3/5/06; 22:37:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 142151)
$$$$ $574.5 $$$$ Whitewaterwoman (3/5/06; 13:28:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 142135)
**** $574.4 **** arbyh (3/5/06; 11:43:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 142133)
$$$$ $572.0 $$$$ Clink! (3/7/06; 06:40:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 142190)
$$$$ $571.9 $$$$ glockmaster19 (3/7/06; 14:33:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 142198)
$$$$ $570.0 $$$$ Liberty Head (3/5/06; 14:02:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 142137)
$$$$ $569.1 $$$$ Caradoc (3/12/06; 23:30:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 142375)
$$$$ $568.8 $$$$ Beer Man (03/04/06; 12:17:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 142102)
$$$$ $568.4 $$$$ Freedom (3/5/06; 11:12:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 142131)
$$$$ $567.6 $$$$ The Knife (3/6/06; 17:14:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 142175)
$$$$ $566.0 $$$$ compwiz4u (3/12/06; 19:19:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 142366)
$$$$ $565.0 $$$$ Rocky (3/3/06; 14:30:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 142091)
$$$$ $564.7 $$$$ Mthirsty1 (3/6/06; 17:55:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 142179)
$$$ FRN564.0 $$$ Goldilox (3/7/06; 12:45:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 142193)
$$$$ $563.4 $$$$ goldquest (3/12/06; 19:09:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 142364)
$$$$ $562.1 $$$$ Rimh (3/11/06; 23:40:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 142337)
$$$ FRN560.5 $$$ Smeagol (3/4/06; 18:22:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 142108)
$$$$ $559.8 $$$$ 2023 (3/9/06; 02:13:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 142241)
**** $558.3 **** Boilermaker (3/9/06; 17:02:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 142265)
$$$$ $556.6 $$$$ Believer (3/12/06; 19:01:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 142363)
$$$$ $556.0 $$$$ Wky_Woodsman (3/12/06; 20:48:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 142369)
$$$$ $555.5 $$$$ Usul (3/10/06; 13:04:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 142293)
$$$$ $554.7 $$$$ canamami (3/12/06; 17:44:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 142361)
$$$$ $553.8 $$$$ 24karat (3/11/06; 11:04:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 142318)
$$$$ $553.4 $$$$ The Hoople (3/12/06; 12:43:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 142354)
$$$$ $553.1 $$$$ goldenpeace (3/12/06; 10:03:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 142345)
$$$$ $552.6 $$$$ Goldendome (3/12/06; 22:56:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 142374)
$$$$ $552.0 $$$$ Noble1 (3/11/06; 16:50:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 142328)
$$$$ $551.1 $$$$ osa104c (3/9/06; 18:57:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 142270)
$$$$ $550.0 $$$$ Felix the Cat (3/11/06; 07:13:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 142316)
$$$$ $549.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (3/4/06; 22:13:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 142117)
$$$$ $549.0 $$$$ Lance (3/10/06; 12:21:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 142292)
$$$$ $548.5 $$$$ beowulf + (3/10/06; 07:54:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 142283)
$$$$ $548.0 $$$$ YGM (3/10/06; 09:27:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 142285)
$$$$ $547.0 $$$$ spikedog (3/12/06; 22:51:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 142373)
$$$$ $546.5 $$$$ Topaz (3/4/06; 20:26:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 142112)
$$$$ $545.6 $$$$ R Powell (3/12/06; 08:10:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 142343)
$$$$ $545.2 $$$$ Tate (3/12/06; 15:29:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 142358)
$$$$ $544.8 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (3/11/06; 20:08:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 142331)
$$$$ $544.4 $$$$ Black Blade (3/12/06; 18:36:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 142362)
$$$$ $543.7 $$$$ 24Wortel (3/12/06; 11:21:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 142350)
$$$$ $543.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (3/9/06; 15:50:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 142260)
$$$$ $542.3 $$$$ Prius (3/12/06; 13:16:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 142355)
$$$$ $542.0 $$$$ slingshot (3/12/06; 08:07:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 142342)
$$$$ $540.0 $$$$ Camel (3/10/06; 17:45:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 142305)
$$$$ $539.9 $$$$ guns'n'butter (3/10/06; 22:13:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 142308)
$$$$ $539.0 $$$$ Max Rabbitz (3/12/06; 11:07:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 142349)
$$$$ $538.2 $$$$ Shermag (3/11/06; 11:15:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 142320)
$$$$ $537.3 $$$$ balzac (3/10/06; 10:10:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 142287)
$$$$ $535.7 $$$$ Toolie (3/10/06; 20:59:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 142307)
$$$$ $534.0 $$$$ Buongiorno! (3/12/06; 16:19:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 142359)
$$$$ $533.0 $$$$ Nomad (3/10/06; 19:17:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 142306)
$$$$ $530.0 $$$$ tejbear (3/8/06; 04:54:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 142212)
$$$$ $520.0 $$$$ DryWasher (3/11/06; 09:34:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 142317)
$$$$ $518.9 $$$$ 7nomads (3/11/06; 22:33:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 142333)
$$$$ $515.0 $$$$ Goldenera (3/12/06; 10:22:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 142346)
---
NOW we all await the April '06 COMEX contract (GCJ06)SETTLEMENT price on Wednesday 3/15/06 !
GOOD LUCK all.
<;-)
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