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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/13/2004 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Black Blade (1/13/04; 23:59:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 115269) specie-man - Precious Stones You are right about precious stones. The technology is so good only a gemologist with the appropriate equipment can tell the difference and it's getting more difficult. In fact the best "synthetic" diamonds are sold at about half the cost of mined diamonds. They will obviously get cheaper. Even "flame fusion" and "hydrothermic" colored stones are nearly impossible to tell the difference all the time as the methods are getting better. The quality is even better and the same elements are used of course. Actually some of the best come from Russia of all places. And yes, I certainly can guess what your father was working on. Would I venture a guess that one place was Yucca Mtn. near Mercury, Nevada?- Black Blade Goldilox (1/13/04; 23:59:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 115268) Offshoring backlash rising http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/09/pf/q_antioffshore/index.htm snippit:"NEW YORK (CNN/Money) In December, the State of Indiana cancelled a $15 million contract to upgrade its computer system. Why? Because workers from India would have been working on the government job. The Hoosiers garnered national headlines. But Indiana isn't the only state that's backtracking from contracts that involve hiring foreign workers, a process called "off-shoring."Politicians in at least eight states this year are slated to vote on bills that aim at banning foreign workers from public contracts. They include Connecticut, Florida, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina and Washington.Meanwhile, there are eight bills pending in Congress that in some way restrict the use of foreign workers in the United States or limit non-citizens from participating in government contracts."Goldilox:"All offshore who's going offshore!" GS calls this bad "protectionism". Gandalf the White (1/13/04; 23:55:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 115267) Attn: Sir Mudr mudr (1/13/04; 23:51:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 115264)*****$433.25 *****===The Hobbits thank you, Sir Mudr, for the extra nickel !Your entry will be listed at $433.2 !!<;-) Goldilox (1/13/04; 23:54:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 115266) AZ - State's bankruptcies up 7.4% http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0113bankruptcy13.html snippit:"Yvette ArmendarizThe Arizona RepublicJan. 13, 2004 12:00 AMBankruptcy filings hit a record last year in Arizona, jumping 7.4 percent from 2002's then-record total.The filings are a lagging indicator of the economic malaise that plagued many businesses in the past few years. Many companies cut jobs, forcing households, which had garnered a record amount of debt, to deal with lost income, lawyers said. Replacement jobs, if any, paid less. Debts quickly mounted, and bankruptcies soared. In the six-county Phoenix district, bankruptcy filings grew 8.4 percent to 22,929. Statewide, filings reached 31,296.Much of the growth stemmed from Chapter 7 cases, which allow consumers to discharge most of their debts. Those filings climbed 9.8 percent in the Phoenix district and 8.4 percent statewide.Chapter 13 filings, used to reorganize consumer debt, grew 3.3 percent in the Phoenix district and 3.7 percent statewide."Goldilox:Greenspam fiddles while Rome burns! Here in SD county, where new home average prices just topped $600K for the first time, one of my friends with small construction businesses just closed his doors because the CA state workman's comp fees have risen to 50% of the tradesmen's salaries. This at a time when nearly 3000 homes are ripe for rebuilding from the devastating fires of autumn. Insurance compnies are holding the line on construction allowances, so the contractors get squeezed for margin. Black Blade (1/13/04; 23:53:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 115265) Americans labor under crushing load of debt http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/2346494 Bankruptcies hit record level; savings rate continues to dropSnippit:NEW YORK As the bills from holiday spending sprees arrive, Americans are finding that the mountain of debt they've built has gotten even higher. Consumer debt has more than doubled in the past 10 years to record levels, making it hard for many families to cope. Consumer debt hit a record $1.98 trillion in October 2003, according to the most recent figures from the Federal Reserve. That debt which includes credit cards and car loans, but not mortgages translates to some $18,700 per U.S. household. At the same time, the government says the nation's savings rate dropped to just 2 percent of after-tax income in the first half of the year. That means many people lack the means to deal with financial emergencies, much less their eventual retirement. Experts worry about the impact not only on individual families but also on society. "The Depression generation is passing on, and we're losing their values," said Howard Dvorkin, president of the nonprofit Consolidated Credit Counseling Services in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. "Now we've got an entire generation that doesn't know anything about thrift and careful spending. It's tearing the fabric that made this country great."Black Blade: We are no longer an agrarian society and a new Great Depression now would be devastating. As always, get outta debt and stay outta debt, accumulate enough cash for several months emergency expenses (heck even precious metals can be included at this point), accumulate gold and silver for "portfolio insurance", and start a program of nonperishable food items and basic necessities. Anything can happen such as lay offs, family illness, natural disasters, etc. mudr (1/13/04; 23:51:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 115264) *****$433.25 ***** "Hi ! My name is Ernst Welteke and I think that Germany should sell its Gold because we have hired the Americans to dig more and more for us - and to melt down all their necklaces and rings because they are broke. We'll sell it all - we'll make more.Mudr specie-man (1/13/04; 23:36:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 115263) @ Black Blade I totally agree on the precious stones advice. They are pretty to look at, but not good as a long term investment because they are too easy (and getting easier) to manufacture in a lab. And that goes for diamonds now too.Manufacturing gem stones is a matter of combining elements into certain molecular forms - like turning graphite (pure carbon) into diamond (pure carbon !).Gold can not be manufactured in any useful quantities because it is a chemical element unto it's self (like carbon), and any manufacture of even tiny amounts would require extremely expensive (and "messy") nuclear reactions.Of course, as a geologist you know all that :)PS: My Dad is a (now retired) geologist. He worked for the USGS for 30+ years, in places like the Nevada Test Site and Amchitka Island in the Aleutian Islands (Alaska). You can probably infer what he was up to from those two locales. Black Blade (1/13/04; 23:35:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 115262) Factories suffer 41 months of layoffs http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/employment/2004-01-12-employment_x.htm Snippit:WASHINGTON Manufacturers still aren't producing the one item the economy needs most: jobs. Despite recent sharp jumps in orders and shipments, factories shed 26,000 workers in December, the Labor Department said Friday. The December figures mark the 41st consecutive month of layoffs, and bring overall manufacturing job losses to 2.8 million since mid-2000. The pace of layoffs has slowed since summer, but more than 500,000 factory jobs evaporated in 2003 alone. The figures are a disappointment for workers and many analysts, who had predicted the beleaguered manufacturing sector was turning the corner.Black Blade: This is bad news of course but even service sector jobs are going away (especially in the high tech area). There is no end in sight and it is largely due to export of jobs to offshore labor markets and the still "strong" dollar in comparison to foreign currencies. Also the higher costs of energy where oil, NatGas, and distillates are feed stock for petrochemicals and the added costs of manufacturing are yet another reason and those costs are likely to stay high. Oil hit above $35/bbl today during the trading session. Since you can't store these items very easily then I might suggest precious metals. Black Blade (1/13/04; 23:19:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 115261) 'Strong dollar' policy loses its grip Another Old US Dollar Article 'Strong dollar' policy loses its grip By Patrice Hill THE WASHINGTON TIMES John W. Snow, President Bush's pick to head the Treasury Department, faces an immediate challenge of how to handle a rapidly tumbling dollar. For reasons ranging from fear about war with Iraq to low interest rates, a weakening economy and huge trade and budget deficits, the greenback since November has fallen quickly to three-year lows against the euro and is down by 17.5 percent against six other major currencies in the last year. That raises the cost of imported goods from cars to French wine and makes it more expensive for Americans to travel overseas. The biggest concern for the Treasury is that a falling dollar also makes it more difficult for the country to finance its burgeoning debts, which require $1.4 billion in daily inflows from overseas. The White House says it has not changed its "strong dollar" policy, but the currency's decline accelerated noticeably last month after the departure of former Treasury Secretary Paul H. O'Neill, who after a rough start two years ago became a strong defender of the dollar. Mr. Snow, who as chief executive of CSX Corp. comes to Washington from industry rather than Wall Street, like Mr. O'Neill starts out handicapped in assuming the Treasury secretary's unique role as chief spokesman for the dollar. As CEO of the transportation company, he advocated a weaker dollar to help U.S. manufacturers deal with overseas competition. Mr. O'Neill, a former chief executive of Alcoa Inc., never won any accolades from Wall Street, but he gained credibility as a dollar defender by steadfastly spurning pleas for a weaker currency from U.S. exporters in industries battered by the recession. Mr. Snow is expected to adhere to the administration's earlier "strong dollar" policy, though he has refrained from commenting on the dollar or other economic matters ahead of his confirmation hearing tomorrow before the Senate Finance Committee. All signs are that traders in the vast dollar market who are known to push a currency to the extreme once it has reversed course will put Mr. Snow to the test quickly. More than $1 trillion exchanges hands in trading each day. "The U.S. dollar is in a full-fledged bear market, and the downtrend is still in the third inning out of nine," Merrill Lynch told clients last week. The Wall Street firm attributes the dollar's troubles mostly to the trade deficit, which in the last year bloated to $453 billion, or nearly 5 percent of the gross domestic product. "The huge U.S. current account deficit is perhaps an old and tired story," Merrill Lynch said, "but breaking above 5 percent relative to GDP is a big deal the threshold that in the past got emerging markets into trouble." To reduce the trade deficit to a more normal 2 percent of GDP, Merrill Lynch estimates that the dollar would have to decline another 20 percent. Ironically, it notes that the deficit has widened partly because the United States has been growing faster and absorbing more imports than major trading partners such as Japan and Europe. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker have been warning for years that the relentless growth of the trade deficit is unsustainable and someday will exact a price, causing the fall of the dollar. Mr. Volcker has told the National Press Club that his biggest worry about the U.S. economy is that a precipitous drop in the dollar will touch off a full-fledged financial crisis, although he added that such a dire scenario can be avoided if the decline is gradual. The United States was able to sustain large trade deficits when its economy and financial markets were booming during the 1990s, acting like natural magnets that lured foreign investors to put their dollars back into the United States. But after three years of big stock losses and economic weakness, investors have been casting about for more profitable alternatives. Money has been flowing into everything from gold and bonds to Swiss francs, real estate and even the Norwegian krona and Canadian dollar currencies that have gained status as safe havens if the United States goes to war with Iraq. That is a reversal for the dollar, which for years has been the world's principal safe-haven currency. Nick Parsons, head of currency strategy at Commerzbank, said the "daily ebb and flow" of jousting between the White House and Iraq has played a bigger role than economic factors recently in driving down the dollar. "If we could construct an index of bellicosity, it would show a near-perfect correlation with the dollar," he said. European leaders, who struggled to support the euro as it sank steadily against the dollar after its introduction in 1999, have been pleased about the reversal of fortunes. The euro is up by 26 percent against the dollar in the past year. German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and French Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin issued a statement last week gloating over the euro's gains. "It's not the euro that's strong, it's the dollar that's less attractive," said French Finance Minister Francis Mer, who is hosting a meeting of the Group of Seven finance ministers in Paris next month. Investors who saw the United States as the best-performing economy during the 1990s now, after two years of recession and faltering recovery, "question if the U.S. method is still the best to create growth," he said. Economists point out that the moderate decline of the dollar in the past year has had some beneficial effects. An important one was giving the European Central Bank leeway to stop defending the euro and cut interest rates to stimulate growth in the euro zone. A softer dollar also helps hard-hit U.S. manufacturers, farmers and other exporters sell more goods overseas. The growth in exports, in turn, fuels growth in the economy and eventually helps to reduce the trade deficit. A weaker dollar also improves the earnings of U.S. corporations that have offices overseas. In the short term, however, a lower dollar raises the cost of imports and causes the trade deficit to bulge further, while raising prices and threatening to reignite inflation. "The deficit is clearly draining tons of cash from the economy" and is a major culprit in the dollar's decline, said Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors. "As long as uncertainty over the U.S. economy and geopolitical risks continue, it will be difficult for the dollar to rally with this kind of deficit." But Mr. Naroff predicted that the economy will reaccelerate once worries about the war are put to rest, and "the dollar will follow suit." He said the promise of returns on investments in the United States remains higher than it is in Europe or other regions. Nariman Behravesh, economist with Global Insight, agreed that stronger growth in the United States in the end will support the dollar. "The odds of a dollar crash are low," he said. Even if its decline accelerates into a free-fall, "the Fed and other central banks would likely intervene to prevent disruptive events."Black Blade: Yes, another old article that is no longer in the archives (of the Washington Post) anyway. A weaker US dollar helps US manufacturers and brings prices of US goods on par with foreign goods. The "Stong Dollar Policy" is a joke at this stage. Yes, Bush and Snow continue to talk of the "policy" as if they really believe it. But let's face it people - the "strong dollar policy" actually hurt us by delaying the inevitable. Merill Lynch had it right when they said to clients: "The U.S. dollar is in a full-fledged bear market, and the downtrend is still in the third inning out of nine." Also: "The huge U.S. current account deficit is perhaps an old and tired story," Merrill Lynch said, "but breaking above 5 percent relative to GDP is a big deal the threshold that in the past got emerging markets into trouble." Mark my words, the story has been largely ignored by the financial media but will become a major story in coming months. So far we see some countries intervening in the currency markets and pegging to the US dollar at low rates to help their domestic manufacturers. And I haven't even got to the "manipulated" unemployment data (but I may attack that issue at another time). These predictions on the US dollar have and are coming to fruition. Get yourselves "portfolio insurance" (by now you know what I mean). Black Blade (1/13/04; 23:04:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 115260) Operative Thanks. I will try to keep up with the discussion here at the forum. Though I get up much earlier these days and have a lot of work to do I will find time to read the forum discussions. I notice a lot of talk in the energy side on LNG but that is years away. It takes a lot of time and a large fleet of specialized nickel lined tankers under pressure. So far Japan is the major consumer and in the US there is a huge NIMBY syndrome to anything energy related. So far we have only four LNG terminals that supply about 1% of NatGas. Another is planned and is facing a lot of public opposition. By the time LNG is a significant supplier it could be as long as 20 years and by then the demand will surpass the aditional LNG supply. And yet we will be dependent on supply from countries that may not be so "friendly" to the US. Fortunately it will be a worldwide economy and and "embargo" will be useless. However, in spite of a couple of decades of plentiful domestic supply on public lands and under Federal control (that includes the Alaskan north slope supply and planned pipeline), NatGas is mostly "off limits" and moratoriums on drilling and pipeline siting is still a barrier. That alone means that we have for all practical purposes have hit "Hubbert's Peak" in NatGas. Cheers!- Black Blade steady (1/13/04; 22:58:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 115259) spain/us a large higway project is out for bid in the state of texas. 1 of the bidders is a co. from spain. they will get a contract ,look at the spanish politicians who have visited the lone silver star state! Black Blade (1/13/04; 22:53:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 115258) What's in Store for the Dollar? An old article on the need of a "weak US dollar" worth a read What's in Store for the Dollar?By John H. MakinIn a growing global economy, everyone likes a strong currency. It implies that a country runs at the head of the growth pack, and it helps keep inflation at bay. During the 1990s, the United States was such a country. In a shrinking global economy, everyone wants a weak currency, though no one says so. Each country needs a bigger piece of a shrinking pie, and a weaker currency helps to boost lagging demand at home. Awkwardly for other countries, it makes foreign goods more expensive and, thus, domestic goods more attractive. With excess capacity and a weaker currency, inflation is not really an issue. Most of the countries involved in the Asian debt crisis found themselves in these circumstances by mid-1997 and subsequently devalued. Japan, in fact, is still an economy with considerable excess capacity and is counting on help from a weaker yen and a U.S. recovery to boost exports. A Weaker Dollar? A new factor has emerged in the global currency markets this spring. A confluence of market events is suggesting that the U.S. economy may need a weaker dollar to drive a sustainable recovery. Since early this year, and mostly during April and May, the U.S. dollar has fallen by about 5 percent in value, while the stock market has weakened and interest rates have gone down by 30 to 40 basis points. Meanwhile, a jump in the April unemployment rate to 6 percent, the highest level since 1994, underscored corporate and market expectations of a weakening economy and weakening profits. It will be very interesting to observe the response in the global economy should the recent drop in the dollar accelerate. American manufacturers and labor unions are screaming for a weaker dollar while the U.S. Treasury speaks uneasily about a strong dollar being in the nation's best interests. It may be in America's best interests when the world economy is strong, but it may not be in the best interests of the United States when domestic demand growth is insufficient to propel a sustainable recovery that includes a rise in capital formation. In this period of queasiness about the dollar, a Plaza-style dollar depreciation proposed to Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill by Sen. Paul Sarbanes (D-Md.) entails a lot of wishful thinking. The Plaza Accord of September 8, 1985, aimed at pushing down the dollar and came at a time when the Japanese economy was strong and Germany was essentially run by the hard currency Bundesbank. But now with the dollar down from 135 to 127 yen, Japanese policymakers are already murmuring nervously, and a little foolishly, about the absence of a "need" for a stronger yen. Indeed, in deflationary Japan, a stronger yen would be an unmitigated disaster, and most Japanese policymakers know it. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank has protested the run out of dollars into its safe-haven currency by cutting interest rates by 50 basis points on May 2 after markets, unnerved by Secretary O'Neill's squabble with the members of Congress over the strong dollar policy, pushed the dollar to its lowest levels since just before the September 11 terrorist attacks. Take a look at the fundamentals. The U.S. current account deficit means that about 1.3 billion dollars are on offer in the foreign exchange markets every day. As the desire of international investors to acquire more assets in the United States begins to cool, the capital inflows that snap up those available dollars has started to slip and so has the dollar. The important point is that if the United States needs a weaker dollar to sustain its recovery, most of the rest of the world's countries need lower interest rates to sustain theirs. This requirement leaves Japan out in the cold, unless the Bank of Japan finally gets busy and starts pumping out liquidity at three or four times the current rate, as was required to end Japan's deflation in the 1930s. There is plenty of room for further interest rate cuts in Europe and Canada. In the latter, a macho central bank recently pushed up rates by 25 basis points as part of a premature show of confidence in Canada's economic recovery, which is tied closely to U.S. prospects. To quell a strengthening currency, America's other major hemispheric trading partner, Mexico, in April reversed a 60-basis-point rate increase that had been enacted in January. A Dilemma for the Fed A weaker dollar could present the Federal Reserve with a conflict between the needs of the domestic economy for continued monetary accommodation and the need for tighter money to achieve external balance and slow the dollar's decline. After all, with an eye on the domestic economy, the Fed has cut interest rates by 475 basis points since January 2001, only to see the U.S. stock market subsequently drop last year for a second year in a row and to watch stocks weaken again this year as concerns about sustainable growth and profits keep stock prices under pressure. The other part of the Fed's dilemma is tied to the extraordinarily low current level of short-term interest rates. Such low short-term interest rates have encouraged households to continue to purchase consumer durables, housing, and related items at a vigorous pace, especially viewed in the context of the weak employment picture. Meanwhile, corporations have increased issuance of long-term debt but have converted their borrowing into short-term debt because of the extraordinarily low rates on offer, thanks to the Fed's very accommodative stance on the Federal funds rate. The heavy dependence of households and corporations on low short-term interest rates puts the Fed in a delicate position. On the one hand, it may make sense to wait until it sees signs of a sustainable recovery to tighten, because once it tightens, the effective costs of borrowing for households and corporations will jump sharply and the strong housing and consumer durables sectors will weaken quickly, while the corporate profit picture will deteriorate as corporate borrowing costs jump. On the other hand, the Fed's ability to slow the economy, given the current heavy dependence on short-term borrowing, is almost too great-making the Fed reluctant to raise short-term interest rates. So far, no warning lights have flashed to suggest that the Fed has been too easy for too long, thereby risking higher inflation. The combination of a weaker dollar, lower interest rates, and lower stock prices unambiguously suggests an expectation of slower growth. If the weaker dollar were signaling an expectation of higher inflation, it would be accompanied by higher interest rates and would then provide an unmistakable sign of a serious conflict pitting the Fed's desire to accommodate the domestic economy against the need to maintain external balance to avoid a sharp, inflationary drop in the dollar. Markets Jittery In the face of renewed uncertainty about the sustainability of the U.S. recovery and implications for the dollar, interest rates, and stock prices, markets have turned more volatile this spring. The Fed cannot be happy to see that its accommodative monetary policy stance is largely boosting spending on housing, automobiles, and related items instead of causing investment spending to resume. The Fed is getting some of its wished-for "demand growth," but it is coming from retail sales and housing, not from the more respectable kind of demand growth, investment spending, which also boosts capacity and so is not inflationary. But the faster growth of consumption spending, in contrast to a jump in investment, is not unambiguously good for the dollar, especially if any hints of inflation should appear. The most benign case would be that the weaker dollar is indicating that more stimulus is needed to sustain demand growth at a level sufficient to induce the capital spending and additions to capacity that have been identified as necessary conditions for a sustainable U.S. recovery. The weaker dollar, by exporting some deflationary pressure from the United States, then would serve as a forcing mechanism that creates pressure for lower interest rates in countries that have become overreliant on the U.S. demand growth locomotive. Rx: Lower Tax Rates Instead of Higher Spending Even if the dollar does weaken for a time, the Treasury and Congress can take steps to create higher growth and a firmer dollar. Lower tax rates would enhance both demand and supply growth in the U.S. economy, while pushing up expected real rates of return on investment and thereby helping to strengthen the dollar. Another $100 billion in tax cuts that could push next year's deficit to $150 billion instead of $50 billion would be far better than another $100 billion in wasteful spending on agricultural subsidies. Additional deficits created in the short-run by lower tax rates that promise higher growth are not a problem for global capital markets to absorb, since subsequent higher growth would erase future deficits. Meanwhile, the Bush administration would do well to abandon the idea of a "strong dollar policy." The exchange rate is a price determined in global currency markets. Having a dollar policy that includes strong-dollar rhetoric suggests a willingness to intervene in currency markets should the dollar become "weak." That is not the stated policy of the Bush administration, so probably the less said about the "dollar policy" the better. Black Blade: Since I caught up on some work for now I though this old article would be worth reading and to compare how things have since changed. Now the dollar has weakened and will weaken further in spite of "unlimited" Japanese currency market manipulation. As some have pointed out - options expiry is coming soon and the markets will be a bit jittery over the next few days. Still, I see better days ahead for the precious metals. I also noticed that while Alan Greenspan was speaking in Berlin the DOW dropped over 100 points! Coincidence maybe, confusion, or just disbelief. Who knows, but it was interesting to note. The timing was curious to say at least. Operative (1/13/04; 22:50:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 115257) Gold For Oil and Natural Gas ?? http://www.dailystar.com.lb/business/05_01_04_c.asp A very interesting read on what may be ahead in the energy biz. Find it of interest also that Shell announced recently that oil reserves are below expectations. Maybe they are gearing up to push LNG. Goldilox (1/13/04; 22:44:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 115256) GS Speach @ Dollar BillI think Sir AG did much today to reinforce the European stereotype of "The Ugly American". Arrogance is not soon forgotten. Black Blade (1/13/04; 22:42:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 115255) Physical Gold vs. Paper Investments Now for the serious side folks This is an interesting debate. I have thought about this subject for quite some time. I have about 35% of my portfolio in physical Gold and Silver and it would have perhaps been a bit more, however, my paper investments have done quite well. I do know that this is not anywhere close to the norm in today's investment environment In spite of the rising equities indices those tend to be select shares and of course the DOW is only 30 companies). I should add that the equities indices often drop poor performing equities in place of better performing shares - it's a curious game they play. Gold mining shares tend to front run physical Gold prices on occasion. Since the POG has not kept up with the frenzied pace of the mining shares, it would stand to reason the price of physical Gold should move much higher. In other words, this Gold Bull has a long way to run. That is the either physical has to catch up while mining shares retreat some. I view my physical Gold as a hard physical "insurance" asset that I will carry through thick and thin. It is after all the ultimate insurance that has no claim on it by outside forces. I think back to those people through history who had to bribe the border guards to seek a new life of freedom outside nazi/communist domination (essentially the same thin), those who brought their way out of a one way ticket to Auschwitz, Triblinka, Buchenwald, some Gulag in Siberia, or even to escape the Khmer Rouge in Kampuchea (Cambodia), those who watched their life savings vaporize in the Weimar Republic, to escape Vietnam in 1975, those who had Gold during the LatAm (Brazil, Mexico, etc.) currency blowup, those who survived the Asian Contagion with their savings intact one case where an entrepreneur bought the rights to a Mercedes dealership in Indonesia and others stores, then there are those who are now suffering in Argentina, and those suffering in Japan (however, I should think that some of those with precious metals should come out fairly unscathed). Gold (yes Rich I will concede silver as well as platinum) is the ultimate "portfolio insurance", it is anonymous and it can be passed along without outside consideration. Paper assets are for the here and now. Stock is simply nothing more than a "deed" of partial ownership of some company if you will. You and many others have a right to a piece of a company with each share of stock. Stock is only worth what others are willing to pay for it. Stock investing is a speculative game and should not be played with cash that is needed for survival. In short it is a bet on the future direction of a company and the underlying asset. Of course bonds are dependent on the quality of debt by the issuer. Some even tout US government bonds as a safe haven investment (yet that is ever more questionable). However, not long ago Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan stated before the Senate Banking Committee that Gold was the "ultimate currency". He did not mention stocks or bonds he specifically mentioned "Gold". Even Congress was asked to allow the sale of US and IMF gold wisely they refused and added that it would take an act of Congress to do so (the vote was not even close including Democrats and Republicans).There are also other hard assets such as gemstones and real estate. If you are not an expert in gemstones stay away! If you are not an expert in the four C's (Cut, Clarity, Color, and Carat) - stay away from diamonds. These are fields best suited for experts in that field and I have seen many people taken for a lot of money for substandard gemstones (even colored semi-precious stones that I have even dabbled in, but that is another story and due to connections related to my previous work in certain countries and relationships developed over many years with "experts). It is also very easy for the uninitiated to be taken to the cleaners. It is true that one could hold several million dollars worth of diamonds in the palm of their hand, but again this is not for the majority of people. I have been fortunate enough to know some people in the gem business and was able to obtain a nice selection of rubies, sapphires, zircon, emeralds, opals, etc. However, these are more of a curiosity as specimen samples and not as easily utilized as something identifiable and tradable as liquid Physical Precious Metals during times of crisis! (and I do mean "times of crisis"! this is "insurance"!).Real estate is a very good asset to have as well (as long as it's paid for and either for the family homestead or a return on investment such as current income). Though I do not have ownership of a physical residence (due to the nature of my work), one could do well to have real estate fully paid for (and the ability to keep it having the funds for taxes and insurance). OK, I do have some land in the high country. The one real big downside of real estate is that you cannot transport real estate as easy as Gold. If one were to need to relocate in a hurry, it is easy to grab a stash of Precious Metals and move on. Gold is also easily hidden and is generally undetectable. There usually is no paper trail. I would always suggest outright ownership. Even without a mortgage and with deed in hand, one is still just renting land/property from the local government. I consider property taxes a form of rent (just stop paying those property taxes and see how long you really "own it"). No taxes need be paid on Gold ownership.I was fortunate enough to make several Gold purchases from miners in Nevada over the last few years willing to part with their precious metals as I sold my services to the Gold mines and I would let it be known that I would purchase all PM awards for attendance and safety now I am glad I did as I bought bullion well below $300 an ounce for gold and $4.50 an ounce for silver. Many of the Gold mining companies typically give out Gold and Silver medallions as safety and attendance awards. Fortunately some miners would sell me their Gold and Silver awards for beer money (I would venture a guess probably before the wives found out). I have many one ounce medallions, half ounce medallions, and various sizes of JM wafers from Barrick, Placer Dome, Echo Bay, Minorco, Sterling Mine, etc. Since then I have made purchases of Gold, Silver, and Platinum bullion (yes even bullion and foreign coin from USAGOLD).I watch world events unfold with threats of war in Central Asia, violence in the Middle East, the possibility of much more terrorist activity worldwide, a horrific weakening of the US Dollar in fact all currencies in a "Currency War of epic proportions as nations struggle for a ever smaller consumer base willing to spend, the deepening Global Recession, corporate scandals galore along with "perp walks" before armies of media camera men/women, phoney baloney Arthur Andersen style accounting, complete loss of confidence in Wall Street, Argentine and Japanese banking crises, one looming energy crisis after another, government squabbling and corruption at all levels, a widening Mutual Fund scandal including some of the biggest names in the business (and it appears to be pervasive), etc. If any one of these threats come into full view and is hounded and pounded by the financial media day in and day out, I know I feel a easier knowing that I have physical Gold on hand. In short - I have my investment portfolio very well "insured". The first thing to do of course is to plan a "Wealth Pyramid" starting with a firm foundation and that is with hard assets first such as precious metals, then stable current income investments, and later more speculative issues. I see gold, silver, platinum, and even palladium going higher as the US dollar weakens (as it must given the unsustainable budget and current account deficits in short we have "gone past the point of no return"). We either must raise taxes (and raise them beyond the ability of people to pay, or inflate the US dollar like there's no tomorrow). You have been forewarned and yet others scoff at us "Gold Bugs" (though my lowly 30-35% position probably does not qualify me as a "true" gold bug to some, but I see it as a purely prudent move in the current environment. Hey, who knows, I just may have to bribe a border guard or two sometime in the future the way things are going here in the "good ole USA". ;-)- Black BladeI would be amiss if I did not publicly thank Mike Kosares and Randy Strauss of Centennial Precious Metals (here we know them as USAGOLD) for allowing me the honor and privilage of doing the Daily Market Reports until recently. I was offered an opportunity to ply my trade (as a consulting geologist) for a major independent company so I had to pass up doing the DMR for now. They were very up front with me and are very honest people to work with and to do bussiness with and they certainly have my respect and future business. Once again, Thanks guys and I hope you all understand my departure. The future for precious metals looks very bright especially with the falling US dollar. Operative (1/13/04; 22:42:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 115254) Ties Between Spain and US Growing http://interestalert.com/brand/siteia.shtml?Story=st/sn/01130000aaa00abe.upi&Sys=siteia&Fid=WORLDNEW&Type=News&Filter=World%20News Encourage all to read this link and file information for future events and players.@ Black Blade: Great to see you out and about this evening and happy you still find the way/time to stay in touch. Good Luck on your project. Best Regards! Black Blade (1/13/04; 22:28:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 115253) *****426.10***** Hi, My name is Ernst Welteke and I think that Germany should sell its Gold. As a Socialist I would like to get reelected again and if the Brits and Swiss can fool the people, I can too. I will of course tell them it's for expanding social programs. I risk the same disgrace as the Brit financial genious who sold the British peoples gold at rock bottom prices and as gold is still rising that is a risk I must take. People are gullible so I will come up with some spin. Besides, the gold is mostly gone (loaned out and will never come back but that's one way to "cook the books" and let a lot of favored investors off the hook).- Black BladeThought I had better get my digs in before the contest ends. Dollar Bill (1/13/04; 20:11:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 115252) *>* Todays link to Greenspan in Germany courtesy of SirGoldquest"The highly competitive free market paradigm, however, is viewed by many at the other end of the philosophical spectrum, especially among some here in Europe, as obsessively materialistic and largely lacking in meaningful cultural values. Those that still harbor a visceral distaste for highly competitive market capitalism doubtless gained adherents with the recent uncovering of much scandalous business behavior during the boom years of the 1990s. But is there a simple tradeoff between civil conduct, as defined by those who find raw competitive behavior demeaning, and the quality of material life they, nonetheless, seek? It is not obvious from a longer-term perspective that such a tradeoff exists in any meaningful sense"Oh? and what about how home depot crushes all the various types of stores in its wake? And walmart and the like.And how mega farming crushes all the family farms?The whole US fisherman industry is crushed by the big ship fishing, and miners, who work very hard to produce cheap gold? ect. steady (1/13/04; 19:48:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 115251) banks hey psst this bank over here is well way in debt oh ok lets give it reserves from our rather large reseve pile.recieving bank: oh ok thanks for that cash infusion fix our dikes with> but here this 150 million is to much.banker: augh you are to knew to this game. the extra is to strengthen your gold and silver reserves, wiiit withh the way its appreciating you can be debt free and we can have alllllll our state bank sheets perfect by 2006, imagine that a bank debt free and still have outstanding loan payments coming in. recieving banker: for real! ok. steady (1/13/04; 19:20:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 115250) musings I wonder if.... there is a lag time between actual gold purchases on the big scale and replenishment of that sold gold, and how does that lag time affect the price of gold? cause what im seein now is everyones got to get paid, and you see thats whats happening now, as the market turns where are those digits are going( the ones creaed out of repos) is into checks , which filter tehre way thru the system in order to fuel the engine, but the digits now floating around due to the change in the market are out there for people to enjoy to consumerize, so thats where dem digits are going out the pipe and back into consumers hands, wise consumers are finding gold and silver outlets see thats the 15 dollar a month thing so far as it has to be orderly so that every one who has digital dollars has the opportunity to , one get digital dollar out of the digitized world and onto a sheet of paper and then convert to gold, this , as many of you know is a laborious tedious time consuming affar, 3 day settment period and so on and so forth , but at the same time keeping there digital papaer asset wealth about the same level so as not to arrouse surprize , or suspicion amongst the brokerage houses, there colleagues or even the govt itself, that yep the rats are leaving this indebted ship, but they are leaving there paper wipings behind so as not to leave such a stench when the game is over., so as the radio stations fill your head with tranquil mood relaxing music and bombard you with ideas on how to be seperated from yor debt, opps i mean money while the tv offers mindless nonsense the traffic flows along with the digital red and green lights confoundng your sense of timeing since there time controlls you, especially you indebted ones, just rember this lil down turn has been nicely coregraphed to coinside with wealth redistribution via the market outlets hahaahaha both market outlets the consumer outlets who recieve the benifit of the stock market wealth redistribution taking place as the bubble is sloly deflated.got time to get gold?better hurry as gold is now driving the rand tooot tooot as one esteemd poster here has told ya ALL ABOARD THE GOLD BULL EXPRESS .. Goldilox (1/13/04; 18:56:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 115249) A veritable litter of dead cat bounces. http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0 Reminds me of a skit by the old "Firesign Theater" -"There's a whole dead cat in every bar of Dead Cat Soap!"Oops - there goes Kittie off to bed. I just never learn. He's soooo sensitive. Goldilox (1/13/04; 18:50:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 115248) China's banking system a ticking time bomb http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FA13Ad02.html snippit:"By Lynette Ong China's banking system is like a ticking time bomb. Saddled by mountains of bad loans and insufficient capital base, collapse of the state banks will cause an implosion of the Middle Kingdom, predict many doomsayers. Many say time is running out as foreign competitors are slated to pry open the banking sector in 2006, as China pledged to open up the sector as part of its commitment to the World Trade Organization (WTO). However, whether or not foreigners are allowed to compete is beside the point - as any trade bureaucrat will tell you, there is more than one way to dodge WTO obligations. The key issue: if unreformed, the ailing state banks will indeed drag the Middle Kingdom down. Two of the four state-owned banks, the Bank of China and the China Construction Bank, have each received US$22.5 billion to plug the massive holes in their capital bases. The $45 billion (373 billion yuan) cash infusion by the government comes from the country's foreign-exchange reserves, which topped $448 billion at the end of 2003, the world's second-largest, thanks to the surge of "hot money" flowing into China from speculators eager to profit from a revaluation of the yuan. These two banks are widely expected to be floated on the stock market in the next one to two years. The recent move represents a government's attempt to "dress them up", making them appeal to potential investors."Goldilox:China is so eager to join the party, they've even westernized (trashed) their banking system. They just need some of them there "drivatives" that Sir AG is so fond of. That'll fix what ails their banks and they'll sell like dot coms! Goldilox (1/13/04; 18:34:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 115247) China to revalue yuan in first quarter of 2004: Goldman Sachs http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/65896/1/.html snippit:"Although a 10 percent revaluation would be needed to bring the currency to fair value, it expects China to revalue the yuan by 2.5 percent against the US dollar in a "prudent first move" towards a more flexible exchange rate regime.Goldman Sachs said that China is then likely to move from a direct US dollar peg to a crawling basket of trade-weighted currencies.It cited a recent mainland media report which said that the government was considering linking the yuan to a basket of 11 trade-weighted currencies. It noted, however, that because many of these were either managed against or pegged to the dollar, its composition would be 63 percent in dollars and the remainder split between the euro and yen. Goldman Sachs said that the move to a managed basket of currencies would lead to a one percent appreciation against the basket in six months and 1.5 percent in 12 months, totaling a five percent rise in value overall. It said that this implies an exchange rate of 8.07, 7.68 and 7.54 yuan to the dollar in three, six and 12 months respectively. The yuan will be valued at 13.00, 12.38 and 12.60 yen over these periods, it said."Goldilox:China is set to compromise with Snow to keep the trade syphon flowing. Solomon Weaver (1/13/04; 18:19:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 115246) A very nice picture....if the link works (RE:silver spot prices) http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAGUSDO&v=dmax Since a few of us here are also silver advocates, I thought it might be nice to take a look at what might just be an interesting moment in silver history.POS (poor old Solomon) Solomon Weaver (1/13/04; 17:44:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 115245) ***432.2*** Meine Name ist Ernst Welteke, und ich glaube, dass wir unsere Geld verkaufen sollen. Wir werden es aber nicht direct auf dem Markt bringen, sondern nur mit Euro-Freuden Geheimgolddeals schaffen. steady (1/13/04; 17:43:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 115244) CONTEST - GERMAN GOLD SALES *****432.5***** my comment on why we should sell our gold "im bold. i dont get told what to do with gold.bought or soldyou will do what told.like mold,youre in the dark,bring back the german mark! balzac (1/13/04; 13:51:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 115243) GOLD PRICE P.A. I have been following gold for so long now I am still using last years numbers- that final figure should be $430.5----sorry!!Balzac balzac (1/13/04; 13:44:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 115242) OPTIONS EXPIRATION P.A.- once again I agree with you- Let's see if a guess for the contest might be calculated thus-3rd sat. price $324.5 plus the weekly increase allowed by Comex$6. = $330.5 US dollars.Balzac glennh10 (1/13/04; 13:42:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 115241) OPEC - Pricing of Oil in terms of... Gold has no national allegiance or identity. Therefore, all currencies are necessarily subordinates to gold - whether nation-states, groups of nation-states, world bank, central banks, imf, wish to acknowledge the fact or not. Coming to this realization might first, quite appropriately occur with OPEC, or other natural resource producers/providers.Therefore, OPEC should take the plunge and just price its oil in terms of gold, and be done with it. And, let the politicians haggle in the currency pit amongst themselves.Just an observation. Goldilox (1/13/04; 13:41:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 115240) Russia's Complex Situation And Putin's Leak To The West http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/duarte/2004/0113.html Joe Duarte's analysis of an article he says :Leaked from the Kremlin". A good overview of the Russian oil business issues and their political overtones.-G balzac (1/13/04; 13:34:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 115239) CONTEST - GERMAN GOLD SALES *****430.5*****MY NAME IS E.W. my comment :The world will soon be controlled by the yellow horde holding the yellow metal. Since we were smashed in WW1 and WW2 and have now more immigrants than we can employ and a faltering economy, what better way to win the Chinese favor for future benefit than to sell them our gold? Our salvation - an insurance alliance forged in gold.Balzac Goldilox (1/13/04; 13:31:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 115238) Witching week @PA-We must be clairvoyant! I was just tracking miners' history and noticed the same wave patterns. Up to the beginning of the month with a dip into witching territory.More derivative effect? An options trader told me 90% of option expire OTM, so I'm not surprised. Heavy selling into the witch keeps that number high, as big traders write more than buy.Oh well, buy the dips and enjoy the ride.Got gold? Paper Avalanche (1/13/04; 12:47:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 115237) Gold must close at or below $424.99 this week...... It is the third Saturday of the month again! Time to protect the big players who have options exposure above $425 this go around.There seems to be a monthly pattern forming of POG hitting some invisible ceiling at a key strike price the week before the options expiry (i.e. $410 last month).I'll gladly take $15 per month (for now).I may be wrong. I often am.PA USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (1/13/04; 12:34:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 115236) An Invitation to Prospective Clients.... http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html Goldilox (1/13/04; 12:21:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 115235) Japanica @ billWhile Japan can (and does) "print" yen at will as you suggest, the more they exercise this option, the less the market reacts. The old question remains, "if a little is good, is a lot better?" They are already witnessing HO HUM reaction to their massive US$ purchases, so if they add Euro purchases to the shopping list, they may finally max their currency credit card in terms of world reaction.Let's see - Buffet cries "wolf" with BH money - buys PMs, short $, and shuts up. Japan floods the market with poopoo paper about three times a week. Long term, BOJ is likely to plug up the plumbing. I like WB's strategy better. Got gold? steady (1/13/04; 12:15:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 115234) experiments is allam greenspam just an inveterate experimenter when it comes to real honest monetary policy? Gandalf the White (1/13/04; 12:14:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 115233) TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA -- POG Contes UPDATE ! EVERYTHING that could go wrong with my computer HAS !! <;-) FINALLY an UPDATE !!!Entries as of Tuesday 1/13/04 at HIGH NOON Denver time !!!In order of decreasing values !**** $462.5 **** Caradoc (1/12/04; 00:00:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 115131)**** $456.5 **** jenika (1/12/04; 07:49:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 115147)**** $452.0 **** Dollar Bill (1/11/04; 23:27:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 115125)**** $449.0 **** knotakare (1/12/04; 08:05:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 115149)**** $447.5 **** omegaman (1/12/04; 00:02:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 115133)**** $440.0 **** Zhisheng (1/12/04; 08:06:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 115150)**** $436.5 **** Operative (1/11/04; 23:40:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 115127)**** $435.5 **** Waverider (01/12/04; 23:41:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 115212) **** $435.0 **** Liberty Head (1/11/04; 23:52:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 115129)**** $433.0 **** a nation of one (1/12/04; 11:37:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 115175)**** $432.1 **** Gandalf the White (1/11/04; 22:36:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 115123)**** $431.5 **** Goldilox (1/11/04; 23:48:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 115128) **** 333.0 **** Ernst Welteke (01/12/04; 09:24:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 115156)**** $429.7 **** slingshot (1/12/04; 08:49:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 115152)**** $407.5 **** Gonlyold (01/12/04; 18:38:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 115202)**** $342.1 **** FreeWillie (1/12/04; 03:30:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 115140) Dollar Bill (1/13/04; 12:02:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 115232) *>* Sir Goldilox, did you see the cartoon on Duke MK's page?MK, This was on a link of your page;"February 28, 2003 - Japan's Finance Ministry confirms it has conducted solo intervention for a second straight month, buying dollars and euros worth about 513 billion yen. It said it had asked the Bank of Japan to step into the market several times in late February and that *euro-buying* had been "far less" than dollar-buying versus the yen.""Since Japanica, er I mean Ameripan, er I mean Japan, can just print up yens and buy as many euro's and dollars as it wants, and with japan and american CB's linked like siamese twins apparently, cant the japanese control the euro price to a not insignificant degree? With all Ameripan interests at play?" Goldilox (1/13/04; 11:58:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 115231) Asian currency float Good question, $bill-Has anyone seen a table anywhere comparing supply growth in all major currencies? Might it demonstrate a huge currency bubble as in major currency inflafla?Another cool comparo might be total of all currency circulation vs. physical gold and silver. Goldilox (1/13/04; 11:47:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 115230) Libya @ billQadhaffi's move appears to be survival motivated. Euroland response is oil motivated. US response is don't let UN upstage us, as we don't want another WMD embarrassment. That old dog won't hunt twice, especially in an election year.Gold day to you, my friend. It looks like some POG/POS correction is here, not too amazingly in triple witching week again. Dollar Bill (1/13/04; 11:44:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 115229) *>* Auerbach;"at some point the pervasive Asian central banks purchases of dollars to hold down their local currencies will have the mechanistic effect of boosting domestic money supplies: "True Asian central banks try to sterilise this domestic *money-supply expansion* with varying degrees of zeal. But this process becomes both more difficult and more costly the bigger the dollar purchases gets. And they are becoming bigger all the time, with Asian central banks foreign reserves now totalling US$1.8tr." In contrast to Mr Greenspan's musings, a more accurate characterisation of current reality is that an unsustainable boom in consumer spending fuelled by credit has simply replaced the unsustainable bubble in corporate expenditure of the late 1990s that was driven by corporate debt."Can anyone elaborate on the -money supply expansion- problem that is/will be faced by our asian loan makers?And with credit spreads shrinking to pre LTCM levels, almost, the plan must be for corporate spending, debt levels, to go up. Supporting stock valuation, providing lift, however false, to the equity asset bubble that the fed MUST levitate since it is playing the game it is. goldquest (1/13/04; 11:35:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 115228) Greenspan http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/20040113/default.htm Latest speech at the bundesbank meeting. Dollar Bill (1/13/04; 11:26:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 115227) *>* Sir Goldilox, Tough to find error in your posts, this one included !I thought this Bush1 tactic was quite revealing, as you remind us;"when the State Dept "quietly" encouraged him to mess with Kuwait, as it presented the excuse to "reduce" his army, but leave him intact" MK (1/13/04; 10:17:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 115226) News & Views http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.html Some new article postings.Scroll down for the Stein in case you've missed it previously.Two new "Notable & Quotable."You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and the Daily Gold Market Report.This is the website where serious gold investors congregate and keep in touch with the market. Please bookmark this page.Good luck to all in the price guessing contest. USAGOLD Daily Market Report (1/13/04; 10:00:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 115225) Page Update! http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlThe Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you. Goldilox (1/13/04; 09:50:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 115224) Sir AG on the boob tube Add the horribly over-reverbed mix to the Grrenspeak and I already have a headache! He really sounds like the Wizard of Oz today .. ay..ay. Goldilox (1/13/04; 09:14:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 115223) Euro/Gold/Oil deals @ dollar billyour post: "What france and germany tried to do with saddam, get oil for euro trade by dealing with a madman, a very vicious one at that, with sons groomed to take over that were at least as vicious as saddam, a massive problem for the world and promising to get worse as the sons took over...Now, could Germany be acting smarter by dealing gold for that oil for euro advantage? And dealing with more sane govts?"From the micro perspective this appears as you suggest, but two steps back, these despots are regularly installed by TPTB to "manage" their colonial resources. World opinion after Iraq I was that he had been contained and there was no further need to worry within that "containment". TPTB weren't worried when he gassed Kurds, as that "aided" Turkey. It was nothing new, as the Brits had gassed the overly independent Kurds two generations earlier. They also weren't worried when the State Dept "quietly" encouraged him to mess with Kuwait, as it presented the excuse to "reduce" his army, but leave him intact. Europe WAS surprised, however, when Dubya acted unilaterally to take him out, as it meant no more "sharing" of the resources. The smoke screen of "asking" for world support was a political coup, as Dubya wanted Europe to help take Iraq, but the only booty he offered was that they "might" get to keep a few contracts they already had (minus the debt, of course). They played the hand of world opinion and lost - Dubya took the oil anyway and the debt must be forgiven before any new contracts are issued.Now Europe needs to ensure new oil flows, and Libya is rich. Qhadafi is no more or less "mad" than Saddam Hussein, but he now has Saddam's experience to draw on, and he's not blind. Hussein (in hubris like Noriega) never believed his masters would take him out. Sorry, Charlie.Watch for oil rich Indonesia (backers of Muslim gold Dinar) to be a future Muslim "hotspot", as will "socialist" Venezuela and civil-war-torn Nigeria. No one really gives much of a hoot about North Korea, as they have nothing to pay retributions (tribute) with.Again, we follow the money! Waverider (1/13/04; 08:17:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 115222) OPEC mulls move to euro for pricing crude oil http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20040112.wopec0112/BNStory/Business/ "OPEC is considering a move away from using the U.S. dollar and to the euro to set its price targets for crude oil, the highest-profile manifestation of the debilitating effect of depreciation on the greenback's standing as the currency of international commerce. Several members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are seeking formal talks on using the euro, as well as the U.S. dollar, when determining price targets for crude, a senior oil minister within the cartel said Monday. "There are countries that are proposing this," Venezuela's Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said in Caracas. "It's out there, under discussion."Any move to water down the use of the U.S. dollar as the currency would have enormous symbolic impact, said one prominent Canadian energy analyst. "On a symbolic level, I think it's huge, not only for what it says about the U.S. dollar, but also the implied change to the nature of energy trading worldwide in the future," said Wilf Gobert, vice-chairman of Peters & Co. Ltd." Cavan Man (1/13/04; 08:02:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 115221) Waverider RE: Liberalization of China's Gold Market I think this was done for the reason you mention; i.e., to encourage the private ownership of gold which will in due time be a lesson to those who hold it. The lesson: as the currency of the realm(s) twist in the wind, the golden sextant charts a sure and steady course.I think the other reason has to do with the increasing wealth effect resulting from the Chinese economic juggernaut. With a high rate of savings, the "money" has to go somewhere. Channeling investment into gold helps in some measure to relieve the pressure on other asset classes and speculative business investment. I imagine speculation in anything that is not tied down over there is rampant. At some point, perceived wealth will be destroyed like the Nasdaq dollars here. At that day of reckoning, it will be a comfort to Chinese citizens and their masters to know that their rainy day fund is secure. Arcticfox (1/13/04; 07:51:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 115220) The Broken Cycle: Paradigm Shift The Broken Cycle: Paradigm ShiftJim Willie CB"An image comes to mind. Uncle Sam is struggling under a huge debt burden, even as his subjects struggle under similar huge debt burdens. His legs render him awkwardly able to bear the weight, incapable of walking in a straight line, due to a badly twisted spinal column. Under the influence of extreme doses of pure oxygen and amphetamines, he rises after a painful fall in the year 2000. Since that tumble, he has lost a considerable amount of blood. Now he walks, despite continued loss of blood in what has become a dangerous hemorrhage. His steps are irregular, clumsy, and uneven. Govt statisticians view his gait through an absurdly distorted lens, which wildly amplifies the size, strength, even the direction of his movements. That same lens fortunately provides snapshots which make his movement appear steady. The children he pulls along are Asian workers, not our own. Every step is borrowed from our new Asian masters, who are now either anxious or angry. With crimped income sources, American subjects watch as their jobs are abandoned and sold out to foreign lands. Globalization has backfired on Uncle Sam, and inflicted perhaps mortal wounds. Our manufacturing base was first to forfeit. Now our vital service sector is in the process of abandonment. As he attempts to walk, what used to be simple headwinds in past cycles are now fierce gale-force squall winds in this cycle, which make balance impossible." Clink! (1/13/04; 07:08:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 115219) @ Lady Waverider "The" question indeed !If, as Sir Ernst implies, Germany transfers/sells/whatever any of its gold to China (and note that it was made clear in a subsequent, damage-control release that he is asking for the OPTION of selling gold, not to sell gold itself - got to keep the potential client on the hook, after all), this would solve a number of problems :-1/ If Germany can't, for political reasons, move its gold out of the USA, then China has a lot more weight in Washington, being the number 2 supplier to the US. As part of the deal, China could be 'persuaded' to float its currency, which would look like a victory for the USA in the negotiations. So China gets gold and a few less bits of paper in return for its exports.2/ Why would China want gold ? With the combination of fiery growth internally, and pressure to unlock the dollar-renmimbi exchange rate, China is going to be faced with serious inflation problems (as will every other country, for that matter, but I digress). The Chinese are reported to be a great nation of savers, but if an entire nation sees its hard-earned savings being devoured by inflation, what better way to maintain social order by providing a means for every person to maintain their wealth ? Not that I think the Chinese leadership is being deliberately nice to their people, it's just that they see it as easier to maintain their long-term position if they are benevolent dictators. 3/ Why would Germany (or, rather, the EU) want to supply China with gold ? Because they are friends ? Well, I wouldn't go that far, but in many ways the European and Oriental mindset is much closer than to the US one, in that they both have a much, much longer timeframe. The reasons why have probably been the subject of several books, but it has to do with where you see yourself in the continuum of your culture. It may be that some leaders (and I don't necessarily mean senior politicians !) are thinking of which countries are still going to be interesting to do business with in 50 years ?But, bottom line, none of us has much of a clue as we are not privy to the real forces shaping our world. All we see is a facade, probably at several degrees of remove from reality. Hopefully here, we are at least one layer deeper than the MSNBC watchers, but I can't shake off the feeling that there is someone, somewhere reading this forum with huge amusement at how wrong we are in our speculations. Enough paranoia, I'm just going to go out and buy another copy of 'Catcher in the Rye' ......C! Dollar Bill (1/13/04; 07:08:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 115218) *>* Is this deficeit, trashing the dollar, move intended, maybe solely intended, to force the euro region to intervene in the currency markets? Once the euro starts that, isnt it not hard for Japan and the US to manipulate the currency market to siphon off all the excess euro's needed to make sure and keep the euro from getting stronger as a currency?By stronger, I mean independently standing. Not price.Using the bashing of the euro regions 18% trade with dollar regions, down till it hurts too much, so that the euro will spend its euro's buying dollars? This subject is over my head, but, with Cheney saying deficeits are not a problem, it must not only not be a problem, but an essential policy tool.Squeeze the euro in line with Japan and China?With chirac and co. fighting the us so much in the WTO, it IS a war. Dollar Bill (1/13/04; 06:51:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 115217) *>* Does Germany have to sell its gold through normal channels?Can it sell it to a oil selling country or countries, as payment for that country deciding to take euro for oil payment? What france and germany tried to do with saddam, get oil for euro trade by dealing with a madman, a very vicious one at that, with sons groomed to take over that were at least as vicious as saddam, a massive problem for the world and promising to get worse as the sons took over...Now, could Germany be acting smarter by dealing gold for that oil for euro advantage? And dealing with more sane govts?Financial historians will not be kind to the saddam backers.If I was in germanys position, I would trade the gold for Euro/oil dealings with as many oil countries as I could.Since the euro boys are makeing sounds like they really dont want to intervene in currency markets to lower the euro, they dont want to get tied into the dollar support system more, is their only way out, is their only chance at reserve status if oil countries, or at least some, start trading oil for euro? And if so, it would be worth it to trade away gold. Just Guessing of course.Is this why Blair now says 2007 for euro joining? Because he figures the oil countries will switch more to euro by then?Lets see, how to put that in 30 words.**502**If I trade away my gold to a couple willing oil countries, they will trade oil for euro's. I can buy Lybia out from under Bush and Blair perhaps ! steady (1/13/04; 06:08:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 115216) Regular honest hours. when will the bosses over at comex return to regular hours?what did they think we would forget?since the unforgetable day of 9/11 they still havent been able to reopen the comex one time for regualr hours.what a joke, what a facade of honesty, of fairness and openess when they cant even stay open for the regualr hours. hey did tehy take a pay cutr since they are working less? or did the part time paper pushing gold slackers just turn a blind eye.well blind eye this u chumps your day is coming the world realizes how corrupt, you have been how reckless you treated the gold and is in the process of paying you back, no wonder yall are afraid to open for regualr hours to give our trading time back to us. and yes u are in the process of being routed from 330 on up. and nope that aint krupt, so just give it up surrendear and we can hold everything we hold dear, resists and well who knows when the smoke clears but rest assred when it does will be no where near to be founds , in fact this sound , yea that one the one heard form timbucktoo to kalamzoo come on even you can join tooozubazoom, zubazoom, zubazoom, open comex to regular hours, zubazzom zubazoom , even if it leads tp upir doom, cause at this rate yo will see it sooner than later, understad physical gold owner hater? steady (1/13/04; 05:40:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 115215) DeR BaCk............................ will the statistical average work, or will d digits in d hundreds place be meaningless? slingshot (01/13/04; 00:42:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 115214) Gold for oil/China Why is it that gold is only associated with oil. China is a vast terrain and I think it may have riches yet undiscovered. How about gold for stategic metals readily available above ground to be forge into a war machine? An upcoming economic tiger and military might to flex and protect its interest.Slingshot---------<> slingshot (01/13/04; 00:01:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 115213) Hail,Sir mikal Let us not slander the metal of the moon.For the trouble of the world will find us soon.Honest trade for the metal of old.True ratio from silver to Gold.Let us not deprive, a lifting of the soul.The transference of silver to Gold.But rejoice that it can be sold.At a proper price, at USAGOLD.Slingshot------------<> ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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