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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/13/1999
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
View Yesterday's Discussion.
ORO
(11/13/99; 21:24:14MDT - Msg ID:19061)
Cavan Man
I don't know what is best, I do know that some things are probably going to work. Among them gold coin. Hoarding "stuff" - oil products in particular - is probably a good idea too. Government inflation adjusted bonds are also good value keepers.
I think the emerging market bonds are getting too expensive to justify the risk any longer, so those would be out.
Gold mining preferred shares and convertible bonds may be a good idea, but difficult to analyze.
Getting your own little gold claim (with proven production) and the equipment to run it.
If you are a quick trader - able to dissociate emotionally from the market you are playing, you can go in and out of stocks. In any case, being a "long term investor" is the wrongest thing after a 20 year bull run in the most leveraged market in history. One in which the earnings of the companies traded in the equity markets are themselves functions of market valuation.
You may have seen the movie Matrix. The story is of humanity being used as production plant for something, the people live a life completely within their heads, controlled by computer simmulations. The key to the hero's survival and success is realizing that the world around him, in which he grew up all his life, is completely false. Walking through a room full of people trying to free themselves from the images bombarding their brain, he crosses a kid bending a spoon. He asks the kid, how did he bend the spoon. The kid says, its simple, there is no spoon.
What is played before us in the world is a hoax that you have been conditioned by daily experience to accept as reality. But there is a cost to the charade and a cost to you. But you can't bring yourself to come to the conclusion, when you watch CNBC, Read the Journal or Investor's Business Daily, see Moneyline, Ruckeyser, etc. that they are involved in a theatrical production, that they are like well trained actors in a drama about money that never was.
Remember. There is no spoon.
Cavan Man
(11/13/99; 20:48:16MDT - Msg ID:19060)
ORO
Have read your many fine posts. So, what's a fella to do?
Cavan Man
(11/13/99; 20:43:45MDT - Msg ID:19059)
turbohawg
"Although not smart enough to ahve majored in something I really enjoyed...."......moi aussi.
However, I believe timing and wisdom conspired against us.
rsjacksr
(11/13/99; 19:59:53MDT - Msg ID:19058)
Apologies
The "why" of platinum
Apologies, previous message was for ganymede
rsjacksr
(11/13/99; 19:55:41MDT - Msg ID:19057)
re: The "why" of platinum
Food for thought
You stated, "Platinum and silver are true commodities with extensive industrial demand".
Question. IF the market crashes and/or if we go into a hyperinflation scenario, 1) do you think the rules on pollution will be eased and 2)if so, what will happen to the price of platinum, especially since it's a industrial metal?
turbohawg
(11/13/99; 18:58:45MDT - Msg ID:19056)
Nomad
Welcome !! Your recommendation of The Fourth Turning is hereby seconded ... very interesting book.
Although not smart enough to have majored in something I actually enjoyed, I too have a fascination with psychology, particularly mass psychology. A new book recently purchased is Born To Rebel by Frank Sulloway. Perhaps you're familiar with it. In his introduction, Sulloway asks questions such as:
- Why do some people have the genius to reject the conventional wisdom of their day and to revolutionize the way we think ?
- Why, during radical revolutions, do some people rapidly discard their old, erroneous ways of thinking whereas others hold tenaciously to the prevailing dogma ?
Short excerpts:
- The question of why some people rebel, including why a few particularly far-sighted individuals initiate radical revolutions, is synonymous with the question of why siblings are so different.
- It is natural for firstborns to identify more strongly with power and authority ... Relative to their younger siblings, firstborns are more assertive, socially dominant, ambitious, jealous of their status, and defensive. As underdogs within the family system, younger siblings are inclined to question the status quo and in some cases to develop a "revolutionary personality." In the name of revolution, laterborns have repeatedly challenged the time-honored assumptions of their day. From their ranks have come the bold explorers, the iconoclasts, and the heretics of history.
- Neither birth order nor family dynamics are responsible for the emergence of radical revolutions in history. But once such social and political upheavals have been set in motion, the family provides a crucial source for the individual differences that fuel them.
- Copernican theory and Darwinism were both radical revolutions, led by laterborns and strenuously opposed by firstborns.
In short, birth order is the most common thread, according to Sulloway, of why people think like they do. I'm seeing elements of this in my own life. SteveH, perhaps this could provide a partial explanation of the intransigence to your thoughts shown by the one friend you recently spoke of.
turbohawg
(11/13/99; 18:15:46MDT - Msg ID:19055)
upcoming program on CSPAN
Took this from the Republican Liberty Caucus discussion list ... will keep on the lookout for actual program air date. ET and Harry, yet another thorn for "our favorite agency" ??
___________________
Hello all -
This conference below is not a hoax, Bob Schulz, my friend from New York, and president of We The People and the All County Tax Payers Association, is hosting this conference in DC tomorrow, and it will be on C-SPAN, but not
tomorrow, it will be aired some other day.
Regards,
John Reed
Chairman, Republican Liberty Caucus of New York
http://www.freeyellow.com/members7/rlcny/
"Free Enterprise, Individual Freedom & Limited Government"
My ICQ# is 30798655 - Download ICQ at http://www.icq.com
... and we'll chat...
~~~
>>Everyone if you want to witness history then tune into C-Span-2 on Saturday Nov. 13th at 10am EST. There is a live broadcast from the National Press conference Club in DC and it will absolutely drop your jaw! There will be lawyers, judges, Former criminal investigators from the IRS, Former
Internal Revenue officers, educators, professors etc. They will be unveiling absolute conclusive PROOF that there is no law requiring ANY American to file a 1040 federal income tax statement! It is handled from a position of extensive research and certified government documents to back all claims made. A current Presidential candidate has offered a 7-figure bribe to stop this info from reaching your ears! This program will be electric and will definitely be one for the family collection. Tune in and then make up your own minds. Pass this on to all you know.
_______________
Hogs 28 Vols 24 ... tough on the ticker.
YGM
(11/13/99; 17:14:48MDT - Msg ID:19054)
OFF TOPIC
A Man To Be Feared?---- 'KING' William of the N.W.O.
Executive Orders and the Demise of LibertyJames L. Hirsen, J.D., Ph.D.November 12, 1999
It is not possible for a constitutional republic to maintain itself. A great and noble system of government requires perpetual vigilance on the part of its citizenry if it is to survive.
Sadly, within our own precious land, a subtle but virulent type of distortion has been taking place. The assault has been slow but persistent. It has occurred beyond the grasp and view of many Americans. Most alarming, though, is that we now find ourselves in a situation where the rudimentary mechanisms of our republic, the actual underpinnings of our representative structure, are in danger.
At the superficial level, procedures appear to be routine in nature and government seems to be operating facilely. So by what means could a so seemingly solid and efficient system be threatened?
The instrument of destruction that hangs over us like the sword of Damocles goes by various titles, but most commonly it is referred to as the executive order. When used as originally intended, an executive order is a written method of communication that enables a president to facilitate and effectuate necessary administrative functions.
However, this tool has slowly been corrupted over time. It is now being used with the very intention of circumventing our system of representative government.
Most Americans would be shocked to find out that President Clinton, acting alone has:
• Taken legislation that was voted down by our elected representatives and, acting as a one-man Congress, signed it into law;
• Resurrected a law that had previously been terminated by Congress, so as to alter policy relating to the export of sensitive technology;
• Created secret laws that are unable to be seen, even upon written request, by the people, press, Congress, or even select intelligence committees of Congress;
• Changed four decades of military policy, where previously a launch on warning was required if it were verified that an enemy missile was headed toward our mainland or our territories, to a launch on impact, where we are required to sustain a potentially devastating nuclear missile hit, with likely casualties, before we respond;
• Erased a crucial, foundational part of our Constitution, the Tenth Amendment;
• Implemented unratified international treaties, ignoring the constitutional requirement of the two-thirds approval vote by our duly elected representatives in the Senate;
• Secretly assigned our troops to the United Nations and placed them under foreign command;
• Enabled United Nations representatives in a given NGO to be immune from legal action for violations of law;
• Placed the country in a state of emergency that allows the president, or others in his administration, to suspend the Bill of Rights and the Constitution at will.
Every American citizen should find the above list of items extremely disconcerting. But equally distressing is the fact that the present administration plans to accelerate its approach further still.
And so, with an urgency that has rare parallels in our history, we must determine how to stop the ever-increasing, pernicious usurpation of power that has been occurring through Bill Clinton's abuse of the executive order process.
------------------------------------------------
James L. Hirsen, J.D., Ph.D., is an internationally recognized attorney and general counsel for a multinational corporation. Renowned as a speaker on constitutional, government and global issues, he currently hosts his own nationally syndicated radio show on the American Freedom Network.
Dr. Hirsen is also a columnist, a regular contributor to the Orange County Register and is the author of the following two books, available through Newsmax.com's Booksite: The Coming Collision: Global Law vs. US Liberties, and a previous book on Executive Orders, Government by Decree: From President to Dictator Through Executive Orders.
Dr. Hirsen is duly admitted to the US Supreme Court and the US Court of International Trade. He is a professor at Trinity Law School in California.
ORO
(11/13/99; 16:49:53MDT - Msg ID:19053)
SteveH and Golden Calf - MicroFraud
This is part of the same argument I have been making here for quite a while.
The option issuance in general market estimates does not come close to the reality of a couple of our leading tech companies. The practice was supposed to stop next year, but the meetings on revising the GAAP had this scuttled. The reason? The largest auditors of the largest companies would be so fired that they would not find work again for the rest of their lives. A recent Fed study came to similar conclusions regarding the overall market (Business Week last week) but only looking back at historic figures on vested options, not including outstanding options to be vested in the near and further future. Even so, the study indicates that option compensation constitutes nearly 50% of cash flow. By my reckoning, it constitutes more than cash flow beginning in 2001 and for the next few years afterwards. Pension funds holding these stocks as part of an index like investment strategy will have to be bailed out by the governnment that provides them with pension insurance. At this time, some 100 $B are sitting in pension fund holdings of MSFT. The results of this and similar strategies at other corporations will be a like collapse of valuations in proportion to the drain on income when employees will no longer accept options as part of their compensation package. Since the results would be negative earnings for most high growth mega cap corporations, the valuations would fall to book levels and that means a 75%-90% loss for most large cap tech stocks - on the order of $2 trillion of which are held by pension funds.
Because of pension insurance, the government will have to replace the missing funds and issue bonds to cover this. The bonds will be bought by the Fed, and result in copious money printing.
My worse case scenario estimate is that there has not been a profitable year in the SP 500 since 1994. This year's unbooked option related losses are probably sufficient to eliminate the profits of 1990-1994, making this the worst decade in the history of corporate America. The market is oblivious, regulators are afraid of pricking the bubble, and fresh money comes rushing into the equity markets at every turn. Much of this money goes after these time bomb stocks that are going to turn the US economy into mush.
Guess what, this is only the tip of the iceberg.
YGM
(11/13/99; 16:40:27MDT - Msg ID:19052)
From My Email Box To You--More Bill Parish From Bruce Beach
http://www.billparish.com/msftfraudfacts.html
Y2K People Finding People - http://www.webpal.org/list.htm
I do send you NEW stuff.
If you look at the URL that I point you at here
you will see that it is supposed to be posted 3 days from now.
Am I getting ahead of myself?
The world is fraught with horrendous threats.
Nuclear War
Biological Terrorism
Nuclear Accident
Without concerning ourselves about
asteroids,
12th planets,
reptilian invasions,
NWO conspiracies
and the such
we must remember that there are REAL threats
other than Y2K.
Not wanting to add to anyone's paranoia stress
still, I am going to point to a concern
you may not (will probably have not)
seen elsewhere.
Back to that old stock market thing.
I have already established my non-credentials
in that area.
Nevertheless, there has come to me
in my whole non-understanding of that area
another curious piece of information.
To my thinking
there have been amazing bullets aimed at
the economic/monetary/stock market systems
that the world has somehow been able to dodge.
The international (Bretton Woods) monetary system itself,
the threats of debt default from Brazil, Mexico
and a plethora of 3rd World Countries,
the U.S. Savings and Loans Debacle,
the whole Derivatives Fiasco.
It as if the Titanic had treated the icebergs
like they were ice cubes.
We have cheerfully sailed on.
So there is no reason to think,
on the basis of my previous record,
that this sighting is any more threatful
than the rest.
Nevertheless, you can go and read the document
for yourself,
at:
http://www.billparish.com/msftfraudfacts.html
I am impressed with the following quotes if they are true:
a. In October the Dow Jones Corporation decided to add Microsoft to the
Dow Index. On a market cap basis, Microsoft will now account for more than
15 percent of the entire index given that its market capitalization and
stock option debt exceed $540 billion.
b. According to an ABC News 1/22/99 article by Michael Martinez,
Microsoft's own internal auditor, a respected 30 year veteran and former
partner of Deloitte and Touche, was fired in 1996 after informing
management that their earnings manipulations were illegal and violations
of the SEC and FASB laws. He was given the option to resign or be fired
and later settled for $4 million after suing under the Federal Whistle
Blowers Act.
c. as noted in a recent cover story in Fortune magazine indicating Bill
Gates alone has a non-Microsoft investment portfolio exceeding $12
billion.
d. The Independent, a major UK Newspaper, based their story on this study
and shocked many readers. The study also included projecting that
Microsoft would begin issuing "watered stock" in an effort to disguise and
diffuse the pyramid.
e. In an 8/7/99 cover story, The Economist noted that a proper accounting
at Microsoft would result in a loss of $18 billion for 1998 rather than
the reported earnings of $4.5 billion. If you are not an accountant, don't
waste the time pretending you are, trust The Economist, the earnings are
not real.
History repeats itself.
And repeats itself.
And repeats itself.
But there is always something new.
We never fight the same war twice.
Technology changes.
Swords then lances.
Bows and arrows and crossbows.
Muskets and machine guns.
Cavalry and armoured vehicles.
Planes and bombs.
Nuclear weapons and missiles.
And LORD,
we really don't want to find out what else.
In the financial world
there are also continuously new inventions.
New weapons of conquest.
I never managed to comprehend
Gets and Puts,
Junk Bonds,
and Derivatives,
before something new appears.
Instead of scientists doing the inventing,
it is accountants, lawyers and PR guys,
figuring out how to lead the sheep to shearing.
New weapons,
but always war.
New financial instruments,
but always shearing.
But eventually GREED
always, in either case,
ends in DESTRUCTION.
The bubble finally bursts,
and the Tulip Bulb,
Great Seas,
or Match King folly is finally revealed.
We say -
now we know better.
But the next time it is something different.
Like generals
we economists never fight the same war twice.
We blame the 1929 Crash on
too much buying on margin.
The next one we will blame on something else.
Or several something elses.
Consumer debt.
Y2K.
Third World Debt Default.
Or maybe
a highly leveraged and hyped technological market.
But these are the words of a Doomsayer
who doesn't really see
or understand
what is coming.
Look at the URL -
http://www.billparish.com/msftfraudfacts.html
and see if you can figure it out
for yourself.
Peace and love,
Bruce Beach
survival@webpal.org
RossL
(11/13/99; 15:41:00MDT - Msg ID:19051)
price limiter , catching up with yesterday's discussion.
megatron (11/12/99; 11:16:30MDT - Msg ID:18994) asked: "How can a natural buy/sell market flatline like that instantly?" and then commented: "After I sent that post I read an article in Stocks and Commodoties about a program treats price movements like waveforms and uses fourier analysis to derive the underlying fundamental freq. Funny huh?"
A computer trading program used by someone with massive resources could flatline the spot price. It could also be a display problem in Kitco's chart program, which seem to glitch regularly. To answer your question, a NATURAL free market will not flatline like that. It goes against reason.
A fourier analysis on a cricket's chirp would allow me the confidence to predict the peaks and valleys of his waves. Using fourier analysis to predict the waves in a free market would seem to me an exercise in futility. The oscillation is not natural, it is forced from human action and reaction. Computers cannot predict it. I would believe it could be done if computerized program trading has overwhelmed the human action in the market. Does that make any sense? Computer trading brought down to it's virtual knees by computerized fourier analysis? Ha! I'm not an advocate of technical analysis, and tend to agree with Holtzman in his analysis on TA from Thursday. However, if the market is controlled by computers and robots, then TA makes sense. Does that make any sense?
By the way, Holtzman's Thursday post is worthy to be added to his others in the hall of fame.
Doubting Thomas
(11/13/99; 15:18:42MDT - Msg ID:19050)
Greetings All---My first post
I"ve been lurking here for about 3 mos. Thanks much for widening my horizons and providing a wealth of information. My doubts about the wisdom of holding gold eagles has been entirely dispelled. I'm now con- vinced physical gold will provide the best ballast
for weathering the rapidly approaching storm. Reading the posts on this forum has activated the prudent mariner in me. I am rigging ship for heavy weather. Stability is a prerequisite and gold will secure that
Pardon the metaphores but I'm an old retired seaman and thats my take on the situation. I have eyes to read and sometimes see but lack tongue to speak this lingo,much less discourse in it.I admire many on this forum for thier facility of expression.Please continue. I am staying tuned.___Thanks.
Gandalf the White
(11/13/99; 13:10:11MDT - Msg ID:19049)
Great posts today from 18Karat and ganymede !!!
Thanks 18 Karat for the link to the "Downunder" CB report ! -- would it not be nice if our US Fed spoke in the same way ? -- BUT that is the difference tween a CB and a private entity, yes?
AND thank you ganymede for the "balancing" of SJKaplan's comments on "the horse with no name". -- I see SJK as only reading the COMEX Traders numbers and not seeing beyond those first trees. -- Here at the FORUM, by standing on the shoulders of the GIANTS, one can see the whole picture much clearer !!
Question MK !! -- Did you make contact with the "Insider" ?
Thanks all!!
<;-)
ganymede
(11/13/99; 10:52:14MDT - Msg ID:19048)
The "why" of platinum
I know this paragraph has been quoted a lot in the past few days but I wanted to discuss it some more because I found it very disturbing:
"Platinum made a bearish reversal on Thursday, November 11, 1999 by rising to its highest price ($431) since a nearly identical spike on April 14, 1998 before closing with a net loss. A peak at this level is an annual event like the Halloween parade, and should be appreciated in a similar spirit. Mortgage your house and kids and sell short platinum, covering at $340. Platinum will see its steepest losses after its lease rates collapse, since the money currently available from lending it is the only reason for holding platinum at this lofty price level."(S.Kaplan)
Many people on this forum have discussed the relative merits of holding platinum and silver instead of, and in addition to, gold. It has also been pointed out on more than one occasion that the gold and platinum markets tend to be directly correlated and in fact, movements in gold are often telegraphed by movements in platinum. But the gold and platinum markets are very different.
Platinum and silver are true commodities with extensive industrial demand. Platinum is somewhere between 80 and 100 times rarer than silver. This rarity is directly displayed by the difference in their prices: when silver is at $5/oz, platinum is happy at $400. True, the price sometimes goes much lower, but this is mostly due to an extenuating circumstance such as Russia's (a major platinum producer) desperate need for foreign currency. Platinum is roughly 10 times rarer than gold but this is not reflected in the two prices because platinum has no real monetary use. This alone is proof of the great farce of saying that gold is merely a commodity, because if it were it would find an equilibrium price of about $50/oz with silver at $5/oz.
Why is platinum an ineffective money? It is too rare. The great advantage of gold is that it is common enough to be widely distributed but rare enough to hold value. Gold occupies a unique middle ground that makes it very effective as money. This is why FOA sees gold surpassing platinum in price appreciation in his scenario. At a low price platinum is a monetary gold substitute for many people (especially Japanese) if the gold price is soaring. But as platinum demand increases, price increases at a greater rate (due to rarity). As the price of platinum approaches that of gold, buyers will buy gold instead because of its greater monetary utility. Thus the best platinum, in a monetary role, can hope for is price parity with soaring gold in FOA's scenario.
While gold is a monetary metal, platinum is a strategic metal in a high-tech society. Not just because it is used in catalytic converters, but because of many other high tech uses for which it cannot easily be replaced (for details see the Platinum Guild website). Platinum has no value in anything but a physical form. Paper platinum cannot be used in a high-tech product. Paper gold can be effectively used as money. This is a BIG difference.
The major producers of platinum are far removed from the major users. It is essential therefore for platinum users to maintain a strategic reserve of platinum to guard against fluctuations in supply. Now remember Y2K. The long supply lines from Russia and South Africa (the major platinum producers) are at risk. Therefore strategic reserves must be increased, hence the price increase, the physical shortage and the high platinum lease rates. The lending of platinum is a very small part of the platinum market. There is no lending scheme in the platinum market that mirrors the size of the lending situation in the gold market.
But because the platinum market is facilitated by paper it is subject to the same kind of abuses as we have seen in the gold market. These abuses are much harder to facilitate though because of platinum's rarity and greater physical demand. That's why we see sustained high platinum lease rates while those of gold peaked and fell.
The conclusion I wish to end on is this: Don't count on a collapse in the platinum price or its lease rates unless Y2K is a non-event and FOA's scenario is further delayed. Platinum is an excellent investment because of its Y2K supply vunerability and its sure demand as a gold substitute in a currency crisis.
Nomad
(11/13/99; 10:22:07MDT - Msg ID:19047)
greetings !
http://www.fourthturning.com
first of all, as a long time lurker i would like to thank MK for running this site. i have been reading here and filing huge amounts of information away ever since i first bought gold. in addition to the great info and speculation, the level of civility on this forum is quite unique and in my opinion if the genteel addressing of 'knights and ladies' is a factor then so be it, and i salute you all.
i have a quote on my wall from this summer that i first found on a day i bought a quantity of physical gold. if i recall the price at that time was around $ 260 and the quote is from some banking bigshot that goes something like 'the only investors willing to buy gold at this time are those who like standing in front of oncoming trains.'
the moment i read this quote i knew that i was absolutely doing the right thing. and of course the events of late september / early october proved us goldbugs correct, even if my trading skills didn't allow for me to profit as much as i might have :)
i would also like to relate an anecdote that has stuck in my mind for quite some time and it involves the events in the life a former scientist who lived in Nazi Germany in the late 1930's (forgive me if i have the details wrong, but i like to concentrate on the morals/lessons of such stories). evidently this scientist, being jewish had been waiting to find a seat on the trains that were leaving the country each day but had been unable to procure the necessary ticket/documents. knowing as he did that permission to leave might come at any time (or never), he nevertheless kept a packed suitcase stored under his bed for months on end. finally after an eternity of waiting, in the middle of the night, he somehow received permission to leave. he later learned that he got a seat on one of the very last trains to leave germany before the borders were completely closed for jews. grabbing his suitcase and sprinting to the train station in the dark hours of the night he made his train and wound up in america. this in itself is a remarkable story, but what impressed me the most is that it was said that for the rest of his life this individual always kept a packed suitcase stored under his bed.
as a former grad student in psychology, one of the statistics that stuck in my mind was that in studies of historically dangerous situations throughout history it has been found that only about two percent of the population is willing to make preparations to mitigate future possible dangers ... my father and i refer to this as the 'two percent rule'. for example, only two percent of jews made the arrangements necessary to leave nazi germany before the borders were completely closed. and archaelogists believe only two percent of the residents of pompeii made their escape before the mountain blew. viewed in this light, those of you who are concerned about the effects of Y2K need to understand the tremendous psychological and social pressures which are being brought to bear against you, and to be strong. my father always told me, 'the majority is always wrong', and in this case with the two percent rule being in full effect, those of us who are preparing through the purchase of physical gold and food supplies are constantly fighting the derision and happytalk of the clue-free majority. just remember, they were completely wrong about gold, and they are going to be horrendously wrong about Y2K. speaking as a 20 year computer veteran from a family of computer veterans, the odds of Y2K being an event of minimal impact are incredibly low. in all my years of programming and hardware work, i have never, never, never seen a project come in fully completed and on time. there is no doubt in my mind Y2K will have significant impact on most areas of our economy and our way of life. IMHO, i put the odds of another era of economic depression at better than 90 percent, and i only hope and pray that this will be the worst that we have to face. stay strong people :) in 50 days you will come to see how truly right you were to ensure the safety of yourself and your families.
finally, i would like to take this opportunity to STRONGLY recommend a book entitled 'The Fourth Turning' by Strauss and Howe (see the url above). it is my considered opinion, that this is one of the most important books i have ever read and that without having read and studied its conlcusions, it is nearly impossible to understand the forces that are whipsawing wour society back and forth at this juncture in history. read it, take it to heart and you will be infinitely wiser and infinitely better prepared for the coming troubles.
best of luck to all, and thanks again for providing such interesting commentary.
'fall down seven times, stand up eight'
japanese proverb
SteveH
(11/13/99; 10:15:38MDT - Msg ID:19046)
my friend Leroy
Leroy,
Bill Murphy continues to work behind the scenes in this most unusual time when, on paper, many millionaires are born. It is within this stock market that inflation is playing out. If folks were to cash out of their hard earned winnings, this would drop the market, but those fortunate few who did get out at the top and who begin spending their funds, will find themselves paying more for desireable goods as more and more folks chase after less and less. Specifically, I believe, this would apply to commodities including gold and silver. I too am of the opinion expressed by Bill Murphy that gold will rise more than any one can imagine. I speak of $10K per ounce or more eventually. I would take $500 for now, however, as these ridiculously capped prices have gone on far too long.
Remember the rule that the stock market favors the fewest amount of people. The exponential growth on the NASDAQ is a reflection of the last days, in my opinion, of the bubble mania. I suspect that many of these 180-day hold IPO's may not make it to cash out at the high prices we are seeing today. Even the rule of "I never win anything" will come to bear. Imagine you are a UPS employee, one of 30,000 millionaires, and you are ready to spend your money. I say the day these 30,000 folks cash out of half of their earnings they will do so at 1/4 or less the price. Good for them, but let's get real. It is out of control and CNBC and CNN merely feed the rallies with stories on the all the successes and none of the failures. I suggest we all get a grip on reality here. I would hate to think that all the money pouring into the mania is credit card, second mortgage and line of credit money. For if it is, the crash will be just like 1929 or worse where folks put up 5% and margined the rest. Standby.
Here is Bill Murphy's latest:
Le Metropole members,
David Tice has served commentary at The Kiki
Table entitled Greenspan, Hero of NASCAR. It
is a MUST READ serving.
"Yet, these astonishing inflationary
manifestations, apparently, do not worry
Greenspan or the Federal Reserve. And as the
Fed continues to sit back, relax, and watch as
this wild party gets completely out of hand,
Greenspans hero status only grows by the day.
Certainly, he is deserving of a heros welcome
from the folks at NASCAR. Yesterday, Fox
network, NBC and Turner Sports won a bidding
war by agreeing to pay $2.4 billion to
broadcast NASCAR auto races for the next six
years. This huge sum is four times the current
contract price. Interestingly, despite all the
hype, national ratings so far this year for
NASCAR have increased only 1% from last year.
But with so many networks competing for
programming, and with money so easy to come by,
rationality is clearly not the leading
determinant of prices. This is the case with
the NASCAR contract, with home prices in
Silicon Valley, salaries for executives as
well as software programmers, and, of course,
a hot stock."
Midas-
For those of us who believe the stock market is
a big bubble and that the gold market is being
held down at unnaturally low prices, this is a
very frustrating time. I heard on CNBC the other
day that the United Parcel Service's IPO gave
birth to 30,000 millionaires in that company.
Good for them.
But with so many making so much in most of the
markets, it is difficult to take if one is long
gold shares or short the big market. Natural
human emotions kick in. Will this prolonged
nightmare ever end?
IT WILL.
And the same principal still applies - for every
action there, is an equal and opposite reaction.
That is why the gold move up will be grander than
most can imagine and this is why the stock market
will tank further than most can conceive.
That is why I continue to add to my junior gold
share holdings on every opportunity. The overdue
move on these devastated companies will be dramatic.
Ten fold moves up in share prices will be commonplace.
The wait has been agonizing, but the rewards will
be very special for those that hang in there.
Many of the junior and exploration silver and
gold companies are priced near bankruptcy levels.
There will be a coming, internet like frenzy for
companies have found gold and silver resources.
The eventual stock price multiples for these
firms will be staggering.
Keep the Faith!
A little GATA update.
Publicly, not much as been going on, but behind
the scenes we have been trying to determine our
future course of action while our investigation
continues about the bullion dealer manipulation
of the market.
Our attorneys have been diligently looking into
what course of action can be taken against the
N.Y. Fed to force disclosure about their recent
price capping activities in the gold market.
The attorneys have also poured over the Freedom
of Information Act to determine if we can force
disclosure there. All this entails reviewing
prior cases and the numerous exemptions that the
Fed has.
Hard to say what will come out of this - except
that if we are blocked in one area, we will
attack another.
My gut tells me the N.Y. Fed has a real dilemma.
I think they have facilitated the capping of the
gold price, but are getting in over their heads.
Due to a much higher supply/demand deficit than
they were prepared to deal with, they are
finding it harder and harder to hold the gold
price down. They lost control of the market last
month and they will lose control again.
It would appear Alan Greenspan is keeping his
word, "central banks stand ready to lease gold
in increasing quantities should the price rise."
The price of oil has increased 150% in one year
while Greenspan and Co. have made sure the price
of gold did zip dee doo dah. To hold the price
of gold down, the bullion dealers and the N.Y
Fed have had to call in all kinds of favors
from the likes of the Bank of England and
Kuwait (and who knows who else).
Ironically, I suspect their scheme is entering
a desperate phase. Will this be another example
of "desperate men do desperate things?"
Hard to say. What I am sure of is: one of the
great U.S financial scandals of all time will
unfold in the months and years ahead. I suspect
the United States public will learn that the
U.S. Treasury and the N.Y. Fed have squandered
a good amount of the gold in Fort Knox. The
reaction to that action will be one of
significant public outrage.
The gold loans (which probably are in excess
of 10,000 tonnes) have not been reduced to
any great degree. The natural supply demand
deficit still exceeds 125 tonnes per month.
Over time, that pales the BOE, Kuwait, etc,
gold supply. The bullion dealers, N.Y. Fed, U.S.
Treasury and overly hedged gold companies
have no end game. No way out. They are trapped
in their greedy scheme. They will have a big price
to pay and their financial scam, that has
devastated so many, will be exposed.
That is why GATA fights the fight. That is
why it makes sense to stay the course with
our gold and silver investments.
<A HREF="http://www.LeMetropoleCafe.com/scripts/products.cfm">Le Metropole Cafe</A>
All the best,
Bill Murphy
Le Patron
www.LeMetropoleCafe.com
SteveH
Tanglewild
(11/13/99; 08:44:58MDT - Msg ID:19045)
The other side of the (GOLD) coin..
http://web2.airmail.net/scsr/
An interesting site advocating massive U.S. debt. FWIW
Thanks to all for an education here. Much appreciated.
Tw
ET
(11/13/99; 08:14:22MDT - Msg ID:19044)
Harry
"Meet the new boss..."
Well Harry, there is some question as to whether our favorite agency will be functioning in just a few months. Amendment or no amendment, cash flow could become a problem.
I suspect it is going to get down to whether the powers that be today are able to collect today's debts going forward. A general default is not out of the question. I know some here have expressed dismay over the possibility of massive economic change but it seems to me we have been building toward this default since 1913. The debt collectors may have trouble this time around.
Keep your head down and your eyes open Captain.
ET
WilloTheWarthog
(11/13/99; 07:41:44MDT - Msg ID:19043)
Gold-Don't Leave Home Without It!
http://www.sovereignsociety.com/a-letter/aletterarticle.cfm?entryid=76
This article tells, in a graphic example, the necessity
and ultimate value of owning gold. It gives an
immediate answer to the question, "What is the minimum
amount of physical gold I should have in my portfolio?"
The easy answer is, "As much of your wealth as you would
see fit to carry if the worst happened and you had to
flee." It should also put to rest any arguments about
whether or not you should keep it all in the bank!
In the past few months we have seen too much footage of
weary and reality-shocked refugees trudging out of their
homelands.
"Gold-Don't Leave Home Without It!"
RossL
(11/13/99; 07:41:41MDT - Msg ID:19042)
Thanks
I never fail to be amazed at what I learn here on a daily basis! Yesterday it was JFK and the Federal Reserve. Today it's the Microsoft pyramid. What's next... dare I ask???
Thanks to all.
Bonedaddy
(11/13/99; 07:28:37MDT - Msg ID:19041)
Steve H, thank you for the link
It is truly wonderful that links to such information can be found at this site. Another "heads up" so the knights and ladies will not be caught sleeping. You have provided even more evidence that we are rapidly approaching a watershed economic event. I can't help but see this as a long term positive outcome. Yes, the short term might be tough, but there is no other way for the true value of things to be restored to a proper balance. The sheep must be shorn. The congressional hearings must conviene. When the realization finally sets in that most investors have been duped, there will be a fearsome hangover. The the recovery can begin. So, here's to better times ahead. No more two income families. No more $40,000 sport utility vehicles. No more latchkey kids. Let a nation and the world be reborn.
18KARAT
(11/13/99; 5:44:08MDT - Msg ID:19040)
Semiannual Report of Reserve Bank of Australia
http://www.rba.gov.au/new/new_ind.html
If you download the pdf file,
"Semiannual Statement on Monetary Policy Nov 1999"
which is one of the items available on this web page
from the Reserve Bank of Australia.
(It takes a while though - it's a big 1MB file).
On page 27/28 you will find an interesting item:
"Box B: Recent Developments in the Gold Market"
Among other interesting data contained in this mini-report
is a chart on gold lending that
I can't recall having seen anywhere else.
Another interesting thing is how much
this official publication of the RBA
confirms the judgement of many gold bugs.
Just to let you know that while much of the media might consider us all to be a bunch of raving lunatics,
official central bank observers know better.
18 KARAT
Golden Calf
(11/13/99; 3:42:31MDT - Msg ID:19039)
MSFT
Steve H....Reading this and checking the daily, weekly,
and monthly charts, she looks like this could be the
straw that will break the back of the market's [camel].
Whod'a'thunk it?
FRAUD?!
Next week should see some exciting action, in all
markets, IMHO.
SteveH
(11/13/99; 0:48:02MDT - Msg ID:19038)
Alarmism or true problem
http://www.billparish.com/msftfraudfacts.html
I do no that Greenspan wrote of this in his Jackson Hole speach Thougths?
Bonedaddy
(11/13/99; 0:31:57MDT - Msg ID:19037)
Y2K, tolerance stacking, and gold
The present economy has been likened to a well oiled machine. This seems to be a fairly apt comparison. Like a machine, the economy is complex and comprised of a large number of interactive parts. When the parts are in good shape and function as designed, the machine hums along. Each part requires a certain amount of space in which to move. Too little clearance and the machine locks up. Too much clearance and it begins to clatter and knock. When enough parts become worn the clearances or tolerances stack up and effect each other. The machine becomes hard to control, unreliable, and eventually breaks down.
Most of the Y2K attention is centered on a specific date in time. An event. The perceived great 1-1-2000 blackout. But in reality, there is no single event at all. Rather, there are several million small events acting upon many of the interrelated parts of the economic machine. A little sand here, a few metal fragments there, and the rate of wear begins to increase. The longest peacetime economic expansion will very soon experience accelerated wear because a few million particles will contaminate the well oiled system. And short of shutting the whole machine down, all the particles will just have to be pumped around until they get filtered out. How long will it take? There is no way to know, it has never happened before. Just know this, beginning in a few weeks, it IS happening. The beauty of this beast is that man, full of pride, has created it and now still believes he can stop it. All the gold in the world, melted and poured inside the rogue computers cannot stop the date from changing.
No amount of money, including the billions spent to make systems compliant, can make the problems go away.
You see, the gold is for later, when when we get to the other side. The reason to buy it now is that it is probably the last time, for a long time, that working class people will be able to afford it. Get a good seat now, and prepare to experience the stark objectivity of a true season of change. And always remember to live large. There will be many opportunities.
Simply Me
(11/13/99; 0:08:03MDT - Msg ID:19036)
megatron/John Gault (sorry if I misspelled your name)
megatron:" All I know is that I've been watching kitco for 2 years and it never looked like that until a few weeks ago! After I sent that post I read an article in Stocks and Commodoties about a program treats price movements like waveforms and uses fourier analysis to derive the underlying
fundamental freq. Funny huh?
Yeah....well....Hmmmmmm. Underlying fundamental frequency?
What does that have to do with the POG? Isn't a deal at $300 still a deal at $300? (and BTW, thanks once again, for the updated info!)
If the graph lines are being homogenized like that...doesn't it effectively HIDE large high and low transactions? Heck, why even bother with the 24 hr graph! Just give us a daily average! Hannibal could buy a chunk of physical that would make a spike like Pike's Peak,CO, and all we would see is Mesa, AZ.
Does it seem suspicious that this wonderful new technology was introduced in the last two weeks?...just in time for big time "end of the millenium", "end of the bullion banks", "mining companies in big trouble", pull up your shorts and cover your butt time?
OK. The ad-copy writer in me likes to take a few loose details, and tie them into a fancy little :30 to :60 knot. (Guess I got a little wild-eyed in my last post...sorry.)But I can't sell what isn't there. There's SOMETHING to this "gold limiter" idea...if not in the technology, then in the timing, and maybe in the question, "Who's idea was this, anyway?". You see it. I see it. Anybody else out there see it?
Does John Gault see it? (He's the guy who posted Kitco's gold graph outage earlier today.) He seems like someone who would at least know someone who knew.
Got my Golden Parachute and I'm looking for Pike's Peak!
simply me
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