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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/12/2004 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Waverider (01/12/04; 23:41:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 115212) Sir Ernst Welteke ***** 435.50 ***** Cavan Man - I'm with you...I think that we have been honored with a visit from Another or maybe FOA! BUT - he graced us with a question today which no-one yet has attempted to answer...or maybe the answer is obvious to others here and not I.Sir Welteke:"Why would we talk publically about consideration of sales or actually pursue such sales? I assure you, it would not be to increase the dollar-portion of our reserve position! If we hint about it now, or if we sold GOLD in coming years, it would all be for leverage -- using GOLD for the purchase of political advantage in a larger picture.First, please note the similarity of this statement with FOA: "Gold has always been the most political metal our world has ever known; political because it offers so much power to those that hold it in their hand...[and]...Apart from our Western trading crowd, who consistently lose their money, Euro owners and Physical Gold Advocates own these items with no intentions of selling these to make more dollars. They hold them because the world financial system is changing faster than trading can compensate; and this trend will accelerate to run right over traders as their markets shut down around them. Believe it."...and...Sir Welteke: "If your friends are in need of GOLD, you make sure the price does not too soon get out of hand. Perhaps you prematurely mention the possibility of sales. Your friends will know you are serious about coming through for them...What you CAN do, however, is to sell this quantity of earmarked GOLD in good faith to China, for example, who can then in good faith as the new owner announce that it is their national policy to request delivery of their new purchase for official CB holdings and also to help feed the growing domestic demand in their newly liberated GOLD market. *Can you connect the final few dots for yourself and figure out WHY it has been liberated at this juncture in time?"*Waverider: This is indeed *the* question of the day! I need some help with this please...Aristotle..Belgian...CB2...but I will hesitate to say that China has (had) a long term plan of Gold accumulation. While the CBs were busy selling their Gold through the '90s, China was quietly accumulating. Still - the question posed by Sir Welteke is *why* have they strategically chosen this juncture in time to liberate their Gold market? I would say because the Chinese government is satisfied with what they now have for reserves (if such satisfaction is possible) - I don't think they would liberalize their Gold market *before* they perceived adequate reserves. So why now? Is it an attempt to continue increasing the Gold holdings of their country through private ownership, AND to spark physical demand to increase the valuation of their substantial reserves...but not for monetary purposes...but that it may be used for barter as an oil-trading median to partially settle oil trades? To quote FOA, "Only, don't expect your gold to become money, it won't! It will become the most valuable wealth asset in your portfolio,,,,, by a long shot. For the simple thinker; gold is good. That's all we need to know. For the man with a question: Gold must rise in value many many times just to regain it's wealth barter asset value. Perhaps $10,000 to start. Then, it will run with any and all dollar inflation,,,,,.." Soooo...has this to do with the price of oil, depreciating US$, Hubbert's Peak, and the phenomenol energy needs of China (in competition with Japan) over the next 25+ years? Is (has) China positioned itself for use of Gold for oil? Help me out here please...are there other ideas on why the Chinese Gold market has been liberated at this juncture in time? Oh yes...what has this to do with German Gold sales - as articulated by Mr. Welteke, you keep good relations with a neighbor in need because you don't know when you yourself may be in need! slingshot (01/12/04; 23:07:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 115211) Midas Crusade Gandalf rode till the smoke was so thick that he could not see the road ahead. He turned south and soon entered the Epis to protect him and Shadowfax from the raging fire.He heard the roar of the fire and the bursting of the tree tops as it approached. Smoke turned to light and heat. Embers danced like fireflys. The Epis was now golden with the reflection of the flames. Shadowfax shivered as he stood in the cold water. Gandalf patted his neck and spoke to him. It will be soon over and we can warm ourselves by the embers on the shoreline, my friend. The fire raced by them and Gandalf and Shadowfax moved to shore. Quickly Gandalf dismounted and took his dry beding down from behind his saddle. One blanket to dry his friend and the second to cover and warm him. When he finished and could see that Shadowfax did not shiver he thought. How many made the crossing? He knew of the plans to cross the Epis but were they in time? Cougar and Leona knew that they could not stay at the hidden passage and rode back to the Mozul. When they arrived they encountered Sir Ari and Sir Belgian. With them was a multitude of Goldbugs. Hail, Sir Ari and Sir Belgian! said Cougar. They raise their hands in reponse. What has happen? asked Sir Belgian. Cougar replied, We do not know for sure as to safety of our forces at Hammerton.We have stay behind to show you a passage across the Epis, long forgotten. Gandalf has ridden to Hammerton when suddenly the smoke was upon us. I fear for them all. Who is this woman? Sir Ari asked casting a stern eye.Leona, said Cougar, She has shown us a hidden passage of the Epis. She is a friend of Gandalf and Omar. Sir Belgian then spoke. There is nothing to do but wait till the fire burns out. It was not long before the fire reached the Mozul and they retreated to the safety of the open dry lake bed. The next day Omar had placed a few sentries in front of the West Gate. Sir M.K. and Sir Black Blade had crossed the Epis with the main force. Sir M.K. called to Sir Black Blade.Send the Scots back. Let them play again, said Sir M.K. Sir Black Blade, waved the Goldbug Banner to draw attention to Omar. The ferry was unharmed and soon the Scots made a second crossing. Now they were in full veiw for the underbrush had been burned away. Those in Hammerton filled the walls when they began to play. How could this be? they asked themselves. Sir Black Blade and Sir M.K. knew they had to block the entrance of the East Gate and rode to take up defensive positions. But it was not to be so. Therroth had reached the East Gate. He sent a portion of his army into Hammerton while he himself standing alone, watched as the Goldbugs come into his sight. His eyes flashed from beneath his headdress. Gandalf stirred. We must go my friend, he said to Shadowfax.Leona, standing in the midst of the Knights and Cougar as they conversed blurted out, We must go now!Slingshot---------------<> Goldilox (01/12/04; 22:33:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 115210) Poetry wars in Precious - Mikal and steady-If only all wars could be fought with poetry!! Battle on, gentlemen. At least this will be one war worthy of publication.Otish and Mr G.-Thunder (my tabby) is 11 and still a great mouser. His one consession to civilization is that he comes running when I shake the treat bag, as he loves his WhiskaLickins. Beyond that, however, he cares not. Goldilox (01/12/04; 22:24:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 115209) Barclay's report @ RichI took that exerpt from a Gold Eagle Daily metals report, so I saw no more than what I copied. mikal (01/12/04; 22:16:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 115208) A Gold/Silver carry trade suggestion For those of you who lately, strut out silver. If you insist on prejudice against gold, much like some PM equities devotees, exuberant with certain victory. I suggest a simple trade to the benefit of all. Sell or trade your gold to Centennial Precious Metals, if you have any left, in exchange for silver. Not only will they appreciate your business, but you will be supporting the rest of us in two ways:I) To provide financial support for the Forum, News and Views, Daily Market Report, Archives, Gilded Opinion, Hall of Fame, Golden Trail, 24-Hour News Links, etc. II) To extend the window of buying opportnity for your grateful, deserving friends on the forum and clients of Centennial who will need to secure scanty supplies to face the Kondratieff Winter, inflation and numerous election year, tag-team assaults on American dignity. So please don't complain to this manWhen the brown suddenly hits the fanAnd you be eating out of a can,Or sifting gold dust from a panWhen you could have seen the planTo make only gold get top elan. otish mountain (01/12/04; 22:04:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 115207) Mr. Gresham .....Kitty Interesting posts from you today. I ponder these same thoughts daily as I observe my community go about their daily lives - oblivious - to everything except consumerism. I think though you do injustice comparing Kitty to humans as you describe. My Alex (named after the actor in A ClockWork Orange) had an amazing ability to leave his bowl untouched for weeks while he went on his journeys.Surviving is not problem for Alex or Kitty. Toolie (01/12/04; 21:57:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 115206) Ernst How might I know when Uncle Sam gives in to the desire to posses that which is not his? R Powell (01/12/04; 20:08:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 115205) Goldilox Thanks for the report from Barclays Capital Research. I didn't see any link so I took the google cyber secret passage to their site and found a subscription (pay per view) situation. I'm curious. Was that the extent of their report? It is amazing how much information can be found on even obscure subjects such as how much soybean oil is produced by one bushel of soybeans and the potential for changes from the norm when the beans are somewhat stressed (and smaller) due to a three week drought during precisely the pod filling timeframe. But, try to get any numbers related to silver supply, demand or existing stores and see how far you get! Lease rates for silver have been rising since about the beginning of this price uptrend. This usually implies a temporary physical shortage in London. That London market has grown even smaller over recent years but is still a market indicator, I guess. Unfortunately, I can offer nothing to explain silver's recent strength other than what those lease rates may be implying. Or, it may have been time for silver to catch up with the other metals. I was surprised that gold could breach $400 without silver breaking $6.00. Maybe it's just catch-up time, or maybe, just maybe, it's the start of a huge run-up due to "not enough silver". ?? Unfortunately, when that real shortage induced move does arrive, it will look just like all the other false alarms from years' before. This is an exercise in long term investing. But, even if this move does now retract, I believe that the general price inflation of all tangibles ought to keep silver in a new higher trading range, no? Actually, I think she'll make higher highs and higher lows from here on for some years to come. Just like gold! Any other news or thoughts?? Rich Goldilox (01/12/04; 20:02:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 115204) Daily Reckoning http://www.dailyreckoning.com Bill Rees-Moog on imbalances:"Even China is not free from problems. An undervalued currency is obviously helpful as a way of undercutting one's neighbors and promoting exports. China has tens of millions of workers to introduce into its expanding modern economy. But an undervalued currency introduces inflationary pressures, and China is beginning to suffer from them.At some point, the renminbi will have to be revalued against the dollar, or floated. Floating would be much the better solution. The present situation, in which the dollar and the renminbi are tied together, but all the other major currencies are floating, is illogical and damaging for all of them. President Abraham Lincoln said that one cannot have "two nations - one slave and one free." It would be equally true to say that the world cannot have two sets of currencies, one floating and one fixed. That is particularly true when the fixed currency is the most competitive on Earth.The dollar will not be able to settle down to a more stable rate so long as it is fixed to the renminbi. Nor will the euro return to a more competitive level. At present the United States and China are like two fugitives from a chain gang, tied together at the ankle. It may, however, be difficult to cut off their fetters until the U.S. presidential election is out of the way." Cavan Man (01/12/04; 19:40:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 115203) @ E. Welteke (and the momentary return of Another) Definitely ANOTHER Gonlyold (01/12/04; 18:38:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 115202) ******407.5****** Hi! My name is Ernst Welteke and I think that Germany should sell its Gold because it will aid in reducing the POG while giving corrobative support to the position that TPTB are not responsible for gold's lack of luster as an investment vehicle. Also, by supporting TPTB, we would be in a position such that if TPTB do succeed in establishing their New World Order with its associated new monetary/currency/gold devaluation and confiscation laws, we will be in a position whereby we will have paid off some bills, invested in oil and food, and would then be in a cash position to not only forestall any attack against our own loan obligations, but will be in a position to reap the spoils of a devastated U.S./world economy at a discounted price. Perhaps we could buy U.S. Park Place with multitudes of hotels on it (as in the game Monopoly). Lastly, we hope to benefit from some heretofore unknown behind the scenes agreements to obtain some Iraqi contracts, money, and oil. Sometimes you have to be a brown nose and give up a little to gain a lot. Goldilox (01/12/04; 18:24:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 115201) Ministry Creates $3.55Bln Stabilization Fund http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2004/01/12/045.html snippit""Reuters The government plans to channel 103.5 billion rubles ($3.55 billion) to a recently established stabilization fund, aimed at keeping the economy on an even keel if oil prices fall, the Finance Ministry said Friday.The government is to set aside money from times when oil prices are high to tide it over during any gaps in revenue from falls in oil prices later on. It will pay money into the fund when oil prices exceed $20 per barrel."The funds of the federal budget to be transferred to the stabilization fund are estimated at 103.5 billion rubles," a ministry spokeswoman said. Ministry officials had previously planned to transfer some 80 billion-90 billion rubles of the 2003 budget surplus to the fund.Over the next few years the government wants to raise some 500 billion rubles for the fund, which will invest in top-rated foreign sovereign bonds."Goldilox: I wonder where they ever got that idea? Bugger-thy-neighbor funds? Goldilox (01/12/04; 18:18:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 115200) Australian dollar surges to new high http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/s1024438.htm snippit:"The US dollar has come under continued selling pressure, sending the euro to new all-time highs and the Australian dollar tipping a new six-and-a-half year high.Foreign exchange trade in the London session saw investors wary after last week's disappointing employment growth figures in the United States.The single European currency climbed to a new record peak of $US1.29.However, European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet has now expressed some concern about what he has termed the "brutal" moves in foreign exchange markets.The euro has spent the New York session pulling back.The Australian dollar initially dipped with the euro before climbing again to hit 78.02 US cents, the strongest it has been since May 1997.It was at 77.84 4 US cents at 6:30am AEDT, which is back at the levels of Monday's local close.On the cross-rates this morning, it was at 61.02 euros; 82.92 Japanese yen; 42.17pence Sterling; and against the New Zealand dollar, it was at $1.41."Goldilox:Strong currency resource suppliers are beginning to fear their ability to compete in a global market. USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (01/12/04; 17:27:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 115199) Your friend in the business, helping you enter the market with grace and confidence. http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html CoBra(too) (01/12/04; 17:27:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 115198) ECB and EU Are they getting more articulate against an almost freefall of the reserve currency?I would guess they are. The liberty of the hegemonial currency has already scraped around its boundaries and repercussions - as in beggar your neighbor - may not be too far off.After all the global reserve currency has not only acquired the largest debt load in history relative to its GDP - and it still is only an IOU - it is forced to expand the same at an ever increasing pace in order to keep up - pretenses!This situation is starting to develop into the greatest global scam ever. And the endgame is clear - legal tender will be tinder -Got gold and some silver for your daily needs?cb2PS: As a personal matter - I was happy to see Dubya in place - though have had my misgivings. Meantime, and I mean -MEAN- this guy is not fit to lead the (former) free world - including his acolytes. With this kind of leadership, the world would be better off in total anarchy ... imho ... Goldilox (01/12/04; 16:48:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 115197) Cheney says "Deficits Don't Matter" In a surprise twist, VP Dick Cheney said today that "Deficits don't matter", hinting that he plans a surprise holiday present after he leaves the Bush ticket next year. Insiders have suggested that his present is a blind payoff of 2004's' blind budget deficit directly from his blind trust based on the earnings of his blind Halliburton stock option."I see", said the blind man, though he could not see at all. Goldilox (01/12/04; 16:35:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 115196) Steady's Rap At least now we know Sir Steady wears his baseball cap backwards and cuts the fingers out of his gloves!Silver's back over $6.60 in after hours on the strength of his rap! steady (01/12/04; 16:30:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 115195) speculation? huh............ speculation computation revulation gold silver ratio going to rock the precious metals nation..... what in the tarnation ,, you dun be needen an espanation cause 50 to 1 is going to come and even then it wont be done, but getting there and beyond should be tons of fun.speculation revulation computation gold will be shining in admiration when the move of a generation finishes its gyrations and those holding still in the silver nations will be regarded with admirations, so dont despaire its all fair simple as 16 to one. now u know. so this is done you can go now and join us in the silver gold ratio historical specualtion sure to last at least this generation and please stop acting with such indignation towards our camp we really arent low life scumbag tramps, infact some even collect stamps so the clamps dont bring out or we will have to shout 16 - 1! the fun has begun, im done. CoBra(too) (01/12/04; 16:29:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 115194) Welteke - No POG guess due to volatility .... My name is Ernst Welteke – Ernst, like in earnest, honest and serious. I'm the president of the Deutsche Bundesbank and as it is - it is the guardian and protector of the currency's value.My predecessors have done a great job in re-establishing the Deutsch Mark as one of the strongest currencies in the industrialized world. – Quite a feat, I can assure you in view of Weimar Repuplic style hyper-inflation, followed by Nazi Germany and WWII.I'm really proud, though, of their achievements, as our nation has regained its standing since.With the advent of the common EU currency, the €, all has changed. And I do feel I'm going to have to take advantage of the fact, that others have now to carry a fair share of the burden of the DM. It's only fair, or is it?We've been spearheading the € and with it the Maastricht Criteria for so long, that it may be time to listen to the Keynesian arguments of my friend Hans Eichel and get the economy going at all costs. And in the end, who in hell gives a hoot, when we follow in the footsteps of midgets a la `Greenspan, Snow and other dreamers on , of sandmen. Enough of an preamble, though now I'd ask you, why we shouldn't also sell some of our gold? After all it seems to be a better deal now than it was when the Brits sold out at rock bottom. And the strategy is still to fund R&D, mind you on the interest only. Remember, gold doesn't pay interest and hence funds nothing ... well, I'll leave you with this thought before I discourage any Q & A's - ...Wow, I've done a great job, they're eating crow and don't know that the gold I intend to sell is already sold twice. Not a slice nor bar, nor coin left to sell anyway – though, when the public wakes up to the fact – I'll be in deep retirement, uh, hopefully not storage yet. You bet! And as long as aces of that ilk – I'm sure it's not spelled asses – are around and abound the monetary system is in jeopardy. Well, in itself it's not really new. By historical standards the dollar reserve system has held up pretty well since taking over from the Pound, when Sterling was abandoned. Oh, Gold was abandoned, too – as the ultimate reserve. SDR's, issued by the IMF – controlled by the US FED, took ist place – by law? No way – Legal Tender- though!Love me tender,love me true ...I'll spare you the rest as one contender was cheating and while he hopes to get awaywith his extra-marital affairs, his misdemeanors are catching up – relentlessly. AS the days of the dollar pricing in the most important commodities is drawing to an end, the seignorage of the dollar system is exhibiting signs of fatigue. I'm not sure, after all, if Mr. Ernst W. is protecting the system, GWB or his own ass.I'm only sure, if and when Ernst W. sells some of Germany's gold – which he may not have – I'll still be around to pick up some scratch, or is it called scrap?!cb2 Chris Powell (01/12/04; 16:17:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 115193) GATA delegation to attend Vancouver conference http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1836 Bill Murphy to lead GATA delegation at VancouverInternational Resources Investment Conference.To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com Goldilox (01/12/04; 15:57:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 115192) Daily Silver Analysis snippit:""We reassert out view that there is little, if any, real fundamental basis for the recent surge in silver but the speculative appetite for the metal is ravenous and simply must be respected," a Barclays Capital Research note said."Goldilox:Rich, are you looking for a job? Barclay's has an obvious need!!! Dollar Bill (01/12/04; 15:51:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 115191) *>* Ernst Welteke, thank you for the great education !That is not 30 words or less ! But you should win the prize :)Any price guess? steady (01/12/04; 15:42:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 115190) diminishment have you ever seen anything like the diminishment occuring on planet earth anywhere else in your travels through the solar systems ? Pizz (01/12/04; 15:27:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 115189) Mr. G Spot on regarding debt and other economic issues today IMHO, but you could have waited a couple days on your silver share playing around. . . I expected a bounce (up) today (smile).Pizz Dollar Bill (01/12/04; 15:14:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 115188) *>*............ Greetings Great Aristotle.Today I read Arthur Levitts book. He was head of the SEC.During the Clinton era and perhaps beyond. Anyone who doubts manipulation is rampant should read his book. I had daydreamed about teaching stock market analysis to a couple of the younger boys, as I enjoyed learning in the 60's. But, I didnt, because I didnt want to have to discuss the extent of things you have to watch out for that are, well, criminal frankly.Mr Levitt leaves me sputtering incoherently about what a change has happened in these 40 years. Melting Pot (01/12/04; 15:04:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 115187) Inflation = Deflation in a fractional reserve usury system The System you are dependant upon to provide your existance is called the "Floating exchange rate debt backed by debt fractional reserve banking system" I´ve studied it for 10 years and it is in the terminal phase of collapse which will produce a hyperdeflationary implosion of debt... The main event will be as worse or worse than the depression in the US in the 1780´s on a global basis...The US economic system which has been hopelessly dependant on debt inflation to be created in great enough quantities to overpower debt deflationary forces for 45 years is fast approaching the system´s theoretical maximum potential to produce debt inflation... Money is debt Currently in the US debt is being created faster than the world can realisticly absorb it causing a debt glut which is the reason why US debt dollars are losing their value in relation to everything else... Once the US reaches it´s maximum potential to use previously created debt to leverage new debt into creation in greater quantities the 45 year debt inflationary ponzi scheme collapses into a hyperdeflationary implosion of debt... "This process of "debt deflation" (a term coined by the early twentieth-century American economist Irving Fisher was important in the U.S. deflation and depression of the 1930s"-Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke Before the Economics Roundtable, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California July 23, 2003 Not important...The "Paramount cause" Note: The Great Depression in the US in the 30´s was the result of the hyperdeflationary implosion of 16 years of debt inflation... This time it is 45+ Other than some sort of external (Asteroid impact) or natural (Supervolcanic eruption) A hyperdeflationary implosion of a debt backed my debt system is the greatst manmade destructive event behind Global nuclear war... It is the purest of pure economic terror which is currently beyond 99.99999% of the general population to even begin to comprehend... Here is the Basic mechanics of a debt backed by debt fractional reserve banking system... 1.the inflation of debt and the destruction of savings 1958-2004-05 The US officially announced to the world we were in this system in 1971 with the closing of the GOLD window... Once the system reaches it´s maximum potential to inflate debt which will happen this year or next then... 2. Deflation of debt and the destruction of equity...late 2004 to early 2006... The deflation of debt will be unstoppable do to the fact the Federal Reserve does not have the ability to lower rates below zero... an unstoppable hyperdeflationary implosion of debt will result leading to... 3.Bankruptcy of the banks, Collapse of the economy, and consolidation of power... Great depression will begin some time in 2006... Wipe the hope from your minds...reguardless of what happens there is nothing that can be done to prevent this from happening...the only way to prevent debt deflation is by producing a greater amount of debt inflation...Later this year or in 2005 the "Floating exchange rate debt backed by debt fractional reserve banking system´s" ability to produce a greater amount of debt inflation to overpower debt deflation will become a mathmatical impossibility...and a hyperdeflationary implosion of debt which has been postponed for 45 years will flood out, overwhelm the system and be totally unstoppable... GOLD and Silver if not banned or confiscated should be one of the last commodities to deflate... Don´t believe me? Big deal Just watch it unfold there is no escape unfortunately... This is just a pathetic public service announcement directed at people who want to give a shit...You believe or you don´t...Non belief will not change destiny...We have been marching towards economic doomsday for 45 years and there is no turning back... Inflate debt or die... by Hypertiger Operative (1/12/04; 14:43:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 115186) @ Mr. Gresham Your last post is a bleak one today. My trouble is I can find no fault in your thinking, or the facts as borne out by the American public at large. My wife's b'day was on the ninth. She has behaved herself for the most part this year so I decided to splurge and pamper her for a day at one of those fancy spas. I asked how business was doing. The answer came back "really good". I asked the owner how business compared to last year and the reply was not what I expected. Sales were up, but payments via cash or check were almost nonexistent compared to a year ago. She estimated that 95-98 percent where paying with credit card! This country is in for a wide awakening, much too soon for most of them/us. Mr Gresham (1/12/04; 14:37:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 115185) Feeding Kitty, pt deux Should say that Kitty has some predators about, too, -- raccoons -- so saving wouldn't be as easy as one might imagine. ;-)I guess my beef with US Americans is that they/we/I had an opportunity to play decades of highstakes monetary capital accumulation, but in a league that was beyond them. A lifetime in the privileged Dollar realm.Cash flow that people in a rural village in Central America would envy mucho, indeed would never see in their entire lifetimes. Cash flow that families in Thailand have to send an attractive daughter off to work in Bangkok to ever hope to see the first glimmer of.You see it sometimes when Asian families come to the US, 15 family members live in a house, and 10 jobs are held among the adults of that household. Accumulating capital -- FAST! Opportunity seen, and seized!Now we are equalizing -- FAST -- to the rest of the world's standard of living, i.e., poverty. Actually, we will be sliding further below Europe than we already are, and meeting the middle states on the way up.And the stores are still filled with trinkets. Trinkets that -- dollar for dollar, item for item -- will be the price of a meal not eaten in years ahead.Seven fat years, wasted. Seven lean years to follow. But, maybe, seventy, and seventy? Federal_Reserves (1/12/04; 14:15:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 115184) Treasury supports strong dollar http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040112/economy_treasury_dollar_1.html Today a Treasury offical came out and said we supportthe strong dollar policies even though it has been collapsing for quite some time. Rumors of Japan/Euroto step in to support, but that is continuous.All this on a day when the energy and grain sector in the CRB were blazing like a forest fire.While commodity prices are soaring on strong foreign demand and weak dollar, wages paid in the US show signs of weakening with both average weekly and hourly earnings down along with gross labor demand (only 1k in new jobs) all this in the most recent government reporting.Great divergence and change in this global economy. This is an unstable situation. Mr Gresham (1/12/04; 13:32:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 115183) Feeding Kitty Kitty lives outside, but can be heard through the window when he's hungry enough.I scoop a random amount of food into his bowl. Kitty does not care if the bowl is full, half-full, quarter-, etc. "There is food in my bowl." On/off switch.Not -- "A full bowl, hmmmm... Perhaps if I moved half of this over to storage, then I wouldn't get so hungry in the middle of the night." You get my drift.I can get back to work. Kitty eats, goes off.Most humans? (USAmericans, too, methink.) On/off. Food in bowl, money in checking, card not maxed.Not aware enough to save. Let alone figure price/earnings on stock investments. Let alone figure in effects of interest rates on future value of returns. Let alone figure results of derivative payloads in money center banks. Any baby steps taken in saving are undone by larger forces or deceptions.What percentage of individuals are knowing, willing, and able to perform CAPITAL ACCUMULATION at a level that can measurably affect their survival as they reach old age? 5%? Less?In most countries, in most times, Capital Accumulation takes other forms than IRAs and Gov retirement plans.Most Americans might as well be living in a mountain village in Afghanistan, counting on a rack of sons to feed them in old age. Guinea pigs in a massive die-off experiment. Goldilox (1/12/04; 13:01:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 115182) DX http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=d12 Just to put today's dollar rally into perspective, look at it on a one-year chart - barely a blip! Goldilox (1/12/04; 12:53:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 115181) 1970's vs. 2000's Comparo @ contrarianI think Sincair was saying that his $480 target was based on predicted dollar devaluation. After that point, non-dollar related influences take over and become stronger driving factors in PM appreciation.I wouldn't bet that the fit of 1970 data to current will continue as closely as some suggest, but a lot of evidence suggests it will continue.Notice the $'s fall corrected some today and gold's initial climbing motion was interrupted but not reversed. We're getting hints that gold is decoupling from inverse dollar moves. It is not a PURE anti-dollar play. This suggests to me that appeciation vs. all currencies is more likely in the near future.Silver seems to have already shrugged off complete dollar dependence, so maybe it is a leading indicator of what is to come in gold. Movement seems constrained by some market confusion, but upward resumption could possibly be very violent. Got gold? The window appears to be shrinking. Mr Gresham (1/12/04; 12:53:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 115180) Funny! http://www.prudentbear.com/marketsummary.asp Rob Peebles is funny -- "too sophisticated to save""Here is last year's score: Grasshoppers 10, Ants 0. "By extrapolating last year's results forward the course of action for the future is obvious. "Stop saving!"Instead of saving, the real key is to "make your assets work for you." And last year we learned that one of the best ways to make assets work up a good sweat is to do a cash out refi along with a home improvement loan or two."G: In our brain-dead ("Daddy will rescue me"; or, "I'll just go spill my guts at a 12-step meeting for debtors") society, which cannot hold two thoughts in its head simultaneously, they cannot therefore get that:(1) As you age, you must save. And,(2) You must save in a medium that will be, well, SAFE. There be pirates in these waters... contrarian (1/12/04; 12:16:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 115179) bullandbearwise.com chart That chart comparing 70s rise to current rise is quite remarkable. It indicates a peak around September, if the correspondence is to be believe.I do think that the price movement upward is being managed as much as possible, so as not to be too drastic, but I do think that as the price goes up, a tipping point will be reached, at which point things will get out of control and the price will soar.Looks like, according to this chart, that point would be around $500. Sinclair would know more on this.I don't think, however, that the high point will be a spike like in 1980--I think it will just the first plateau of increasing upswings up to an eventual price in $3000 range, as Richard Russell predicts.Call me an optimist! Pizz (1/12/04; 12:12:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 115178) (No Subject) http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2004/0112.html Good read over at financial sense by Jim Willie.He seems to be having a bit of trouble trying to figure out what industries and what pent up demand will lead the economy forward. At least from private industry, if there is such a thing any more. . .------------------------------Biggest growth industries as far as I can see are:Collection AgenciesCredit CouncilingBankrupsy specialistsOutsourcing ConsultantsGovernment (for a while)Cause it sure isn't going to be autos. . .and his comment on the decimation of the used vehicle market is right on. . . Pizz Goldilox (1/12/04; 11:44:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 115177) "Different this Time" @PAYour post: "Why do I make such statement? Because it is different now."Careful. You sound much like the Wall St. HUCKSTERS as they describe the jobless recovery!-G Mr Gresham (1/12/04; 11:39:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 115176) Japan, and fun with figures... http://www.prudentbear.com/bearschat/bbs_read.asp?mid=164518&tid=164518&fid=1&start=201&sr=1&sb=1&snsa=A#M164518 Great discussion at PruBear forum on currency intervention "sterilized" or otherwise, good research and thinking through the effects. If you've always wondered if now is the time your tired little brain might take on the mighty Central Bank big-brain Thinkers, then give this a click. Me, I need another coffee to get through it, but these PruBear posters are the real thing -- a good bunch!And, with Eleanor of Aquitaine, and Ernst, and who knows what other luminaries arriving here from the financio-historic cosmos, I've the impulse to re-title myself "Danny and Peachy" (from John Huston's The Man Who Would Be King (1975 -- Connery & Caine)) as I know when I'm out of my league amongst bankers and royals, and can only make a go of it by traversing snowy Himalayan fastnesses and fading the superstitions isolated native populations more ignorant than myself.I am reading up on (and, yes, trading into) silver miners and explorers today. Tiny, TINY positions, true -- but it is exciting to buy a thousand of something. Of what, I may never know, although I suppose you could drive to some of them. Or hitch up the sled dogs.But I just thought I'd warn the population in general to escape, as my arrival is usually the K.O.D., or "bacia della morte" for an investment holding. However, me haven't been doing _too_ bad lately, have me? I guess some things are just too strong for my bad ju-ju to overwhelm... ;-)(BTW: Ernst -- I do not dispute the idea of "alternative" identities doing good educational work here. Have you ever been to one of those historic re-enactment sites, like Jamestown, Virginia, the Mayflower Colony at Plymouth, or the ship Bounty complete with Captain Bligh & Fletcher Christian? The staff there plays their roles, in period, and in character, in order to give visitors the most educational experience possible in our time. I love those!Or the individuals who portray Sam Clemens (Mark Twain) or Thomas Jefferson, on TV specials, or in person.I would not object to a site in which several conscientious students of monetary matters took on the roles of "avatar" -- essentially, the virtual personality -- of a public figure who, for policy reasons, could not be known to be present in person.That substituting person could come amazingly close to conveying the ideas which the official person cannot disclose in public. Enough to get the "class" thinking, discussing, perhaps understanding. YOU have certainly done this for your namesake, E.W., and pointedly shown that OUR group needs to take a more thoughtful approach corresponding to your own.And, what better cover for the actual official person to come in under? A discussion site filled with "virtual" offical characters, all known or thought to be well-studied substitutes. Talk about plausible deniability...!All right, that's enough coffee talking...auf wiedersehen! a nation of one (1/12/04; 11:37:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 115175) ****** 433.00 ******* Hi ! My [momentary] name is Ernst Welteke and I think that Germany should sell its Gold because of three reasons.1.) Germany has been behaving suicidally for many years now.2.) Many non-Germans would like to destroy Germany permanently.3.) If Germany were to sell its gold, that would tend to be suicidal, and also pleasing to those who would like for Germany to be destroyed.Of course, being a German myself, I only recommend this action because of the challenge to the German people which it will provide, knowing, as I do, that, by rising to a challenge, one becomes strengthened.Liebst mir in Hertzen, Deutchland. Paper Avalanche (1/12/04; 11:32:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 115174) @ Eleanor of Aquitaine Greetings Lady Eleanor!While it is certainly possible that we may encounter a top in the paper price of gold at some point this year, it is not as likely that we will see a repeat of the precipitous spike followed by the resulting collapse in the price of gold, as was the case in the early 80's following the run up in the 70's that you cite as a reference.Why do I make such ststement? Because it is different now. To understand why the price of gold will not collapse in similar fashion this go around, one must first understand why it collapsed after the run up of the 70's. It was as much a political decision by the CB's of the time to retain the only reserve currency at that time so as to avoid a disorderly abandonment of said reserve currecy, the US$, which would have thrown the financial / industrilize economies into chaos. That was to be avoided at all costs, and it is the intent to TPTB, IMO, to avoid that situation during the transition from the US$ to the Euro / gold that we are now witnessing. It MUST be orderly. I would not want it to occur any other way since that might result in severe financial dislocations that could propel the financial world into disarray. However, to address your question more directly, as a reult of the US$ being abandoned eventually (and hopefully slowly) over the next few years, the run up and collapse in the price of gold will not repeat itself. Rather, through the collective agreement of the world's CB's, gold will be set free to find it's own value and serve once again as the consummate wealth preservation asset.I hope that this provides you with some insight from a casual lurker. I am certain that others on this fine forum can provide you with a better, more detailed explanation. For now, I would encourage you to explore and understand the concept of "free gold" and why it will not cause a repeat of the 70's and 80's.Take care.PA Belgian (1/12/04; 11:31:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 115173) @ WEALTHEKE Loved your great "Cry" in the Gold "Town" ! 99,99 stuff...24 carat ! Brilliant...outstanding ! Goldilox (1/12/04; 11:28:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 115172) O'Neil Listening to the MSNBC reporters' take on O'Neil's interview, one gets the impression that they believe opinions are anathema while in office and irrelevant afterwards. They also suggest that O'Neil was not a Washington "team player" (read: not a butt kisser).It's interesting that they all jump on the fact that he was fired by GWB, but not a single one has mentioned that he was fired for sponsoring a report which revealed the true national indebtedness to be $44T, not the $6T more commonly reported (already $7T only one year later).Fair and independent reporting, of course - let's not confuse a "political" issue with facts! Goldilox (1/12/04; 11:14:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 115171) Kemp @ ToolieMore evidence that Bush is alienating some conservative support with fiscal recklessness. In order to put to rest any confusion between Dubya and his father, I propose retitle them:Bush the Elder, and Bush the SpenderOf course, by the time we get to "Patriot III", we may amend that to Bush the SuspenderNew Gold support ratiosHouse - 434:1 (Paul)Senate - 99:1 (Kemp) Clink! (1/12/04; 11:11:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 115170) Paul O'Neill Interview http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/01/09/60minutes/main592330.shtml For those of you (like me) who missed it on 60 Minutes last night. Interesting stuff.C! Belgian (1/12/04; 10:58:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 115169) Interest Rates (IR) IRs in $ and € remain low and will so for the remainder of the year. A small further decline is even very probable as TI is suggesting. These stable IRs are only possible for as long as the dollar remains supported in its orderly exchange rate adjustment. The dollar decline is not "yet" provoking price-inflation and this is another supportive element for the orderly unwinding (dollar purchasing power).It is amazing that the rising $-price for oil isn't causing any dammage so far. Cavan Man (1/12/04; 10:39:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 115168) @ E. Welteke Hello FOA. DryWasher (1/12/04; 10:31:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 115167) @ Ernst Welteke € 333.0 (msg#: 115156) Great post Sir Ernst Welteke, whoever you may be. I almost busted a gut laughing when I first saw your post, then after actually reading it I found it to be full of good solid food for thought. Things may not be what they seem for sure. As to the question of what your name is, Aristotle is my guess. Got Gold? You Bet.DryWasher. Eleanor of Aquitaine (1/12/04; 10:31:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 115166) Comparitive Charts in Daily Market Report The comparitive charts in today's Daily Market Report, it seems as though we'd be hitting the high of the gold market in the second half of this year. Does anyone else see this possibility? Basically the chart seems to show the ramping up that happened throughout the 1970s as occurring in the compressed timeframe of 2002 and 2003 this time around.What do you all make of this?Thanks, Eleanor oA Goldilox (1/12/04; 10:29:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 115165) Gold jewellery orders in India sink as price soars http://www.reuters.com/locales/newsArticle.jsp?type=businessNews&locale=en_IN&storyID=4111879 snippit:"Indian families are not postponing weddings because of the gold price, but are buying less by weight and giving fewer jewellery gifts to the relatives of the bride and groom, Goyal said."Rich families are buying more diamonds and less gold," he said."People are buying less gold with the same money," Jain said.In India, parents traditionally give gold jewellery to brides to provide financial security as gold can be sold quickly in hard times."Goldilox:Two observations1) Diamonds? now there's a "FREE" and unfettered market!2) "People are buying less gold with the same money," Jain said. - Brilliant journalistic observation Mr Gresham (1/12/04; 10:24:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 115164) Fiat and Super-Fiat I beg time for a second reading, Ernst/not-Ernst (you get to be both here -- if you can fill the boots!), but your explanation -- a good one! -- opens up some of our old questions here. Have you read our "Gold Trail" essays by Another, and his friend "FOA"?You have correlated with two of my logical explanations of why the German bank (or any of the CBs) would sell their gold even when they strongly suspected its value might increase, dramatically, in years ahead.1) You are building a new currency, and, if it becomes the world reserve currency, it is in itself a PROFITABLE franchise which increases in value annually, to the benefit of all who bank, earn, and spend in that currency. If "spreading out" the gold, helps to build this franchise, then the profit from one compensates the loss in the other over the long-term.2) The gold, "deeply-stored" at West Point or other U.S. locations, is, ah, difficult to reach at the moment. It has been involved in other sensitive political dealings, remaining from decades of US-German history. Or, perhaps it has been involved in swaps between financial institutions of the two nations? Better to pass it on, and let someone else try to ship it home, as you suggest.Questions: 1) Would that third party be aware of any difficulties in "collecting" on their gold purchase when time came to ship it? Why is it easier for them to get it shipped home?2) Did the Euro-makers from the beginning know that they had the US Dollar-replacing winner in hand, and that their gold would ensure this?and 3) WHY oh WHY didn't I buy that fixer-upper farmhouse in Tuscany when the Euro was at .85 USD???"I rode a tank, in the general's rank, when the Blitzkrieg raged..." slingshot (1/12/04; 10:19:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 115163) Welcome Welcome to the forum, Ernst Welteke.Noticed your entry is priced in Euros.Will your entry be calculated at the Euro today or at the contests closure day?Slingshot------------<> Goldilox (1/12/04; 10:14:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 115162) Gold and silver morning You can't keep a good gold down! Gold is breaking out from $424-5 battle. Silver has regained $6.65. Au/Ag ratio = 64This dollar dead cat has a little more bounce, but not too much.Ground Control to Rocket ManFor all you hardball fans, Roger Rocket has just announced signing with NASA . . . or was it the Astros - one of those Houston teams.No golden parachute announced, but I wonder what's in his vaulit?! Knallgold (1/12/04; 10:02:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 115161) Reshuffling Gold without stepping on somebodys feet Now that was an interesting post by Mr Welteke!Or Another Welteke... Mr Gresham (1/12/04; 10:01:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 115160) You guys! You guys are great! And our newest member, below, has just blown my "Hans und Ernst" imitation ("And ve are here to --- PUMP YOU UP!") out of the water, so I think I'll just shut up, and read...(And if it turns out it really IS you, friend, know that I was forcibly made to study French in high school, when I, and many of my friends in the French class, really wanted to be taking German. So, it's really "language envy." Really.) Goldilox (1/12/04; 09:58:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 115159) What's in your Vault? @ SlingshotToo funny! Given the deluge of commercials on this theme, I have new visuals of the CABAL in my imagination, but I'm not sure if the more appropriate one is the hordes of pillagers or the flying demons!!! USAGOLD Daily Market Report (01/12/04; 09:27:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 115158) Page Update! http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlThe Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you. MK (01/12/04; 09:27:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 115157) News & Views http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.html Updated.You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and the Daily Gold Market Report.This is the website where serious gold investors congregate and keep in touch with the market. Please bookmark this page. Ernst Welteke (01/12/04; 09:24:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 115156) **** € 333.0 ***** Hello. Allow me to clear the air if I may.My name IS Ernst Welteke, and these many months (as detailed yesterday by Mr. Kosares) I have been speaking of German GOLD sales; not lightly, but to serve a PURPOSE.First, let me assure you GOLD is center on my radar screen. You will recall that I was tapped 11 May 1999 to take over the office of President of the Deutsche Bundesbank effective 1 September 1999 upon the age-limitation retirement of my worthy predecessor, Hans Tietmeyer. As you should be quick to note, a very significant act within the first four weeks of my Presidency was the 26 September 1999 signing of the Central Bank GOLD Agreement with 14 of my colleagues.It was not an accident on 19 February 2002 that I initiated what would become an ongoing controversy among the GOLD community with my interview remarks to Bloomberg TV.On that day I said, "We have significant GOLD reserves in the Bundesbank, and of course we are happy if the GOLD price rises. I could imagine that we slowly sell some of this GOLD and reinvest the revenue in assets that pay interest. ... We should in no case sell the GOLD reserves to pay off federal debt or finance new spending. At best, we should use the interest to reduce the debt."Please receive those comments in their proper financial context -- at that time, from January to mid-February GOLD had steeply risen by € 40 per ounce ($30) -- coming at a time which that move was deemed inauspicious. If you will but look at a 4-year chart of GOLD in both euro and dollar terms, you will see at PRECISELY that point in February the euro/GOLD chart has demonstrated stability, whereas the dollar/GOLD chart has continued to come undone.It is probably not an accurate worry that you deem me to have an "obsession" for the sale of "the German people's GOLD" or "patrimony". This is no idle obsession, and more to the point, strictly speaking, this is not the people's GOLD. Please bear with me.Our situation in Germany is not exactly the American experience. In your case, the GOLD within your Federal Reserve banking system was appropriated by your people's Roosevelt government in 1933. It now truly belongs to your people's governmental Department of Treasury. And how even now, may I ask, might a U.S. citizen go about to lay claim on their share?The primary quantity of GOLD still being held by your Federal Reserve banking System is therefore not the original metal forming the basis of that monetary institution, but is the GOLD they have been holding as custodians under earmark to international institutions such as our Bundesbank.By contrasting experience, meanwhile, our institution has not been so looted by an overreaching government. Rather unlike the Federal Reserve's experience, it has been granted by Parliament of our Federal Republic of Germany that the Deutsche Bundesbank be independent of the instructions from Community institutions and government bodies such that the Bundesbank (similarly the ECB) remain free to pursue the mandate of price stability and the holding and managing of the foreign reserves (including GOLD) which were accumulated as a result of years of our past institutional operations. Please, do think about this carefully and what it portends to patrimony. You will likely find it more agreeable to the people it serves than the "looted" GOLD of the American experience.All activities to date, this includes 110 million ounces of GOLD and receivables that we own and hold as reserve assets, which internally we now revalue monthly against our so-called "hidden reserve" revaluation account represented as a balance sheet liability.As I said to the German newspaper FAZ on 18 October 2001 regarding our accumulated monetary reserves and the balance sheet, "The monetary reserves result from the Bundesbank's monetary policy activities in the past. The corresponding items on the liabilities side of the balance sheet are banknotes in circulation and deposits of credit institutions."The monetary reserves therefore cannot simply be extracted from the balance sheet without being replaced by another asset. They are not a kind of treasure trove which can be freely encashed without any counter-obligation."However, should they be sold -- against payment of the corresponding price by the purchaser -- the reserves contained in the "revaluation accounts" could be booked as a capital gain and distributed with the Bundesbank's profit. Another point to bear in mind is that monetary reserves still play a key role in reinforcing public confidence in the currency and anchoring the credibility of the national central banks."And to be sure, any considerations of direct withdrawal and transfer of reserves "to other public institutions or any attempt by government agencies to influence the Bank in its task of managing the monetary reserves would breach the EC Treaty [Article 105 (2)] and infringe the Bundesbank's independence." To that end, although we subscribed our € 12.2 billion share, 15% of that in GOLD, of the original € 40 billion in foreign reserves to the ECB, the foreign reseves shall continue to be held by each national central bank, with nonsubscribed reserves subject to transaction approval by the ECB above certain volumes to maintain a consistency of E.M.Union-wide policy.This brings us back to the topic of GOLD sales. Why would we talk publically about consideration of sales or actually pursue such sales? I assure you, it would not be to increase the dollar-portion of our reserve position! If we hint about it now, or if we sold GOLD in coming years, it would all be for leverage -- using GOLD for the purchase of political advantage in a larger picture.On the one hand, I think it fair to say we have moved beyond the role of "lender of last resort" in the realm of bullion banking. If a commercial bank experiences an underwater position on its GOLD books, why would we risk metal to aid a hung counterparty when the dollar-system so easily allows such contract problems to be brusquely obscured with a lush hedge of derivatives? A paper solution to a paper contract problem!On the other hand, there is the wider needs of GOLD within the official sector to attend to. Close to home we have ten acceding countries to the EU that shall initially pay 5% of their subscription share to the ECB. Then after at least two successful years under ERM II toward fulfilling the Maastricht convergence criteria, when the euro is adopted by each country their full subscription share is due, with expectations of 15% of the total as GOLD. Currently the GOLD holdings of these ten countries average less than a 4% share of their total reserves. In the big picture, it may be prudent for all parties concerned for an existing GOLD-rich EMU neighbor to ensure that these countries have no hardship securing access to any necessary GOLD.More significantly, GOLD can be spent like political capital in buying the euro-friendly cooperation of significant economic bodies like China that may seek GOLD yet find it impossible to acquire at standard market outlets.With a history of the American penchant for looting GOLD residing uppermost in your mind, if you were the President of an overseas entity that had a share of its precious GOLD being held under earmark by an American institution in New York (the Federal Reserve Bank), wouldn't you want to put your mind at ease, and perhaps even kill two birds with one stone? How might you go about this?You start talking. If your friends are in need of GOLD, you make sure the price does not too soon get out of hand. Perhaps you prematurely mention the possibility of sales. Your friends will know you are serious about coming through for them.Additionally, you do not want to ruffle feathers in Washington or New York by letting them think that you question their integrity as a custodian of your GOLD. You certainly do not ask to have it shipped back to you on your own behalf for no good reason.What you CAN do, however, is to sell this quantity of earmarked GOLD in good faith to China, for example, who can then in good faith as the new owner announce that it is their national policy to request delivery of their new purchase for official CB holdings and also to help feed the growing domestic demand in their newly liberated GOLD market. Can you connect the final few dots for yourself and figure out WHY it has been liberated at this juncture in time?And so you have it. Some talk to smooth the GOLD charts, and some sales as a fair price to achieve various long-term political ends. That is, buying a new monetary system at the lowest possible social cost; with absolute minimum of feather-ruffling or anything approaching a reapeat of the Great War(I).In the end, I may not actually prove to be a spokesman for the Bundesbank, but you'd do well to heed this tale nevertheless.Like a Rolling Stone: "Pleased to meet you. Won't you guess my name?" Cometose (01/12/04; 09:14:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 115155) Silver Over the weekend there were some very interesting comments by David Morgan , a silver analyst, about supply problems and people needing to take delivery .......which perhaps is evident in the current price activity .........reminicsent of a previous time...in the metals markets...He spoke of several 25 cent days .....occuring in a row......Obviously the mining companies are having a little difficulty digesting the recent moves and are discounting this activity(the stock prices are not moving in concert with the metals prices as stated on Futures markets).....If Ted Butler's data is and reality of that finally grabbing hold Silver is currently undergoing vanishish act.....off the shelves so to speak....David Morgan said that if the comex medium of exchange breaks down , we will go to a cash only market for silver......If that happens, the price ranges for metals miners moving in the $100's(hundreds of dollars) will not be as ungraspable as it was for me a couple of weeks ago...... GOLD miners in late 70's and early 80's moved from 2$ to $400.00 without a Comex debacle..... knotakare (1/12/04; 09:06:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 115154) Sir Allan I hope everyone read Stephen Roaches' recent comments on Allan Greenspan. He all but labeled Allan as the pied piper, a prodigous bubble, blowing machine.As far as economics are concerned, the demand side of the equation will be the undoing of the great American dollar inflation. Too much demand for soybeans, oil, copper, ore etc., etc. (from the rest of the world) for the american's to continue to reap a windfall, through the use of our dominent currency. Now that we are major debtor's, we must stand in line with all others and bid, and see most of the bids won by foreign lands. If we were smart, we would treat those foreign lands with respect and honnor.The smart folks in Asia will be able to go on a shopping spree of a lifetime here in the USA. Once these magnifican bubbles burst, and hurtle us back down to our beloved terra. Beautifull homes, golf courses and new-urbanist creations for only pennies. Maybee sir Allan likes to shop too?I think that 2004 will be the great year, the year when the gap between fact and fiction will be at its greatest. Then the pied piper will have completed his job. He will have given a dying currency 15 more years of life, and given the politicians cover for their replacement of rebublican government. Paper Avalanche (1/12/04; 08:59:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 115153) Looks like a knock down, drag out fight at $425 Someone appears to be desparately trying to postpone the inevitable at this price.PA slingshot (1/12/04; 08:49:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 115152) ******** $429.7******** Hi, My name is Ernst Welteke and I think that Germany should sell its Gold because it is an opportunity. Germany will lead the way in the formation of the European Union. This is a time of substitution, then replacement of the Federal Reserve Note. Our selling of gold stabilizes our emerging Global Economy until the time comes. Until then I will be just like some of you Goldbugs. Sell into a rising market. Take some profit. Whats a few tons of Gold anyhow in this New Market? How am I going to replace Germanys Gold? From the other Central Banks of the World, Of Course!Maybe I can star in a commercial and lean into the lens of the camera and say, "What's In Your Vault?"Ah! Wonderbar.Slingshot--------------<> Belgian (1/12/04; 08:08:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 115151) Hallo, hallooooo.... We(a)lt(h)eke, overhere I, Welteke, wellcomed Sir Alan in Berlin, with Another, pré-emptive, Gold statement. How many times do we have to make it clear that...THE DOLLAR SHOULD UNWIND *** ORDERLY *** !And with "orderly", we mean without causing damage and this for a considerable time to come. And,...BTW, don't try to guess what's up with Gold...any Gold and its prices (plural-prices) ! Gold is one of our instruments for managing the (temporary) monetary order. Don't go earsdropping or decoding the causy C-Bankers' reunions in Bazel. And Alan's speak want make you any wiser as well.Jawoll herr, Welteke.€-$ rushed to 1,29 and got hammered (slowed down) at NY's opening.The dollar needs one thing : China + satelites raising their currency's exchange rates. This is (imo) not going to materialize, as it should for the dollar's benefit. The dollar (system) will not be releaved from its systemic assault, coming out of the Eastern corner. Wall Mart has even Big expansion plans, within the US. The dollar will be "used" up until exhaustion, whilst the dollar accumulators continue to anticipate (with GOLD) the dollar's final demise. The "orderly", $-decline-unwinding-desintegration, should be managed (by CBs and not the markets) in such a way that most collateral damage is reduced to an absolute minimum for everybody, during the unwinding (transitional) period.Don't run with the C-Bankers' ball to the markets' playgrounds ! Our collusive cartel agreements should be unspokenly respected ! I remain of the opinion that Welteke's Gold statements are of a purely political nature with the purpose of managing the €-$ affairs. If there is/was a DB/BT Gold-affair, it would be settled (arranged), silently, even in a Gold starved world.Welteke is echoing the...CBs stand ready to sell (???) Gold, should...(A.G.)etc...Dollar-support for orderly unwinding as is/was BUBA's tradition. Zhisheng (1/12/04; 08:06:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 115150) ***$440.0*** I am Ernst Welteke and I believe Germany should sell its gold, buy silver on the futures market,take delivery of half causing the the price of silver to explode, sell out gradually the other half of the silver positions, and then buy all the gold back again with the paper profits. knotakare (1/12/04; 08:05:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 115149) *****$ 449.0 ******** Admin.; please change my price quess to $449.00. knotakare (1/12/04; 08:00:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 115148) ***********$ 447.50************* "Hi ! My name is Ernst Welteke and I think that Germany should sell its Gold because " I want to live a life of Danger". And besides, there is no more Germany. jenika (1/12/04; 07:49:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 115147) ************456.50********** "Hi ! My name is Ernst Welteke and I think that Germany should sell its Gold because JPMorgan Chase have lowered our rating so we buy shares in Adecco who will in turn buy Deutsche Bank shares! Is goot idea ya? Noo Adecco have NO accounting irregularities. Operative (1/12/04; 07:14:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 115146) Iraqis Await Pricey New Mobile Phones http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAT023KCPD.html Iraqis Await Pricey New Mobile PhonesSnip:The introduction of mobile service was held up by political infighting among members of the U.S.-appointed interim Iraqi Governing Council and a Pentagon investigation into allegations of corruption and influence-peddling in the awarding of the contracts, a coalition official said. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, refused to say if the investigation was still ongoing or what had been uncovered. But the official acknowledged remaining concerns that at least one of the successful bidders had ties to the ousted regime and another was run by friends of at least one council member. Comment: I know it is comforting to see the Pentagon investigating corruption and influence-peddling, ties to former regime, and companies run by friends of council members. Perhaps they should award the telelphone business to Haliburton to avoid any appearance of favortism eh? Dollar Bill (1/12/04; 06:18:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 115145) *>* Sir Goldilox, After reading Greenspans latest speech, where he paints the picture of the feds actions during his term, many analysts have criticized his presentation. Like you posted. I will take it one step further...it looks like he has narcissist qualities. Maybe that is the reason for his brazen policies. I always assumed it was just the bold steps needed to keep reserve status in a imperfect system.When I first read it, I thought, why does he lie about the schedule of interest rate increases during the end of the bubble? He presents it wrong. And that is not the only flaw.I have been reading American Revolutionary history of late, and historians say that John Adams did good things for America, but he was not a good reporter. His narcissism tainted his writings in a big way. And affected his actions during the Constitution days. Mostly to the benefit to America.For Greenspan to have this affliction is scary as his decisions.....and who is to keep him in check? Bereneke? Mc Teer? Greenspan is a small man right? 3 feet tall? Seems like...sometimes height affects a guy to overcompensate.Praise will do that also. Like our poster who craved "awe and intense respect". It aint healthy, affects behaviours, and Greenspan, by his latest speech trumpeting himself, incorrectly, is policy also determined by personal glory seeking? Reasonable question after reading his speech. Toolie (1/12/04; 05:36:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 115144) The money of free trade http://waysandmeans.house.gov/legacy/trade/106cong/2-3-99/2-3kemp.htm Jack Kemp --February 3, 1999Snip:When this committee first opened the prospect of American trade and access to American markets and conceived of a direct relationship with Africa's new tigers, it was an audacious proposal. It still is, but it cannot work if it is implemented in an environment of currency turbulence. Remember the high hopes we all had for NAFTA—hopes that were crushed under a collapsing peso? Revival of those hopes has been stunted by the protectionist sentiments that arose from the currency chaos that followed the peso's devaluation.Since I last visited with the Committee to discuss this subject, currency chaos has spread. The world financial system has been thrown into turmoil, calling into question the beneficial effects of market forces and indeed creating doubt about the whole notion of economic globalization. Protectionist instincts, never far beneath the surface, are on the rise as a consequence of the global deflation in commodities and other raw materials. The U.S. steel industry, hurt by a record level of imports from Russia, Asia and other regions, is a prime example. These protectionist instincts are being misdirected at free and open trade instead of the real source of the problem—an international monetary arrangement of floating currencies, in which no currency is linked to a stable anchor and all countries are tempted to use currency devaluation as an economic policy instrument during times of economic duress.The current system clearly is a menace to the stability and viability of global markets. Since the 1970s, the Leviathan known as the International Monetary Fund has impoverished much of the developing world—such as helping to wipe out the savings of ordinary citizens and families in Mexico when it supported the devaluation of the peso four years ago—through its mindless formula of increasing taxes to balance budgets and depreciating currencies to promote going-out-of-business export sales. Despite promises to reform, the IMF continues to inflict its damaging policies on countries already suffering from financial and economic collapse. Rather than shelling out billions of dollars for the Fund, our Treasury Department should be hard at work figuring out how to reconstitute a stable international monetary system.The beginning of chaos in financial markets around the world can be traced to the devaluation of the Mexican peso four years ago. At the time, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan essentially told the Senate Banking Committee that the impoverishment of Mexico would not have occurred if we were on a gold standard—which would have meant that both the peso and the dollar were convertible into gold at a fixed rate. The same is true of the Asian crisis, which sent Thailand and Indonesia off track as the Fed's monetary deflation caused the dollar to depreciate against gold and other commodities.The economist and author Judy Shelton makes the connection between stable money and free trade: "The real threat to the global trade system is thus the prevailing free-for-all approach to currency relations that engenders monetary nationalism and ultimately fosters a protectionist backlash. The solution is to set up an orderly international monetary system that would permit all nations to compete in the global marketplace based on a common unit of account." spotlight (1/12/04; 04:22:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 115143) Free trade? Snippet:Charles Schumer and Paul Craig Roberts: Driving jobs offshore isn't the way free trade is supposed to workCharles Schumer and Paul Craig Roberts Published January 7, 2004ROBERTS01 This is a very different world than Ricardo envisioned. When American companies replace domestic employees with lower-cost foreign workers in order to sell more cheaply in home markets, it seems hard to argue that this is the way free trade is supposed to work. To call this a "jobless recovery" is inaccurate: lots of new jobs are being created, just not here in the United States.In the past, we have supported free trade policies. But if the case for free trade is undermined by changes in the global economy, our policies should reflect the new realities.While some economists and elected officials suggest that all we need is a robust retraining effort for laid-off workers, we do not believe retraining alone is an answer, because almost the entire range of "knowledge jobs" can be done overseas.Likewise, we do not believe that offering tax incentives to companies that keep American jobs at home can compensate for the enormous wage differentials driving jobs offshore.America's trade agreements need to reflect the new reality. The first step is to begin an honest debate about where our economy really is and where we are headed as a nation.Old-fashioned protectionist measures are not the answer, but the new era will demand new thinking and new solutions. And one thing is certain: Real and effective solutions will emerge only when economists and policymakers end the confusion between the free flow of goods and the free flow of factors of production.Charles Schumer, a Democrat, is the senior senator from New York. Paul Craig Roberts was assistant secretary of the Treasury for economic policy in the Reagan administration. They wrote this article for the New York Times.******************************Spotlight Comment:The above article on free trade also clears up the reason for the highly advertised deflation we are supposed to be experiencing. Regarding deflation. Deflation, properly defined is a contraction of the money supply. One has just to look at a chart of the money supply over the last ten years to be thoroughly convinced. We don't have deflation. We are experiencing lower prices through lower costs of everything that can be reproduced at a lower cost elsewhere in the world. Just about everything produced here in the US has been rising in price over the years.The above article spells out a very serious situation that is evolving at an alarming pace.This is not something where we can just pass a law, and all will be well. It isn't just free trade that is at stake here. It is freedom itself. I am not looking for a solution to this problem but rather, I will be considering where this will lead, regarding the future of the US. The third world nations involved in trade with the US are waking up to the advantages open to them. They have geared up, or are rapidly in the process of gearing up, to participate in a much larger portion of the production of goods and services required by the US and the rest of the world, at much lower costs to our businesses and multinational corporations including our financial institutions. Think of calling your insurance broker to put in a claim. You don't know it but the local office has been closed for months and their employees have had to find jobs in another line of work. Your call has been taken and handled from an office in "otherland." Try to think of a way to prevent this from happening without stepping on someone's freedom. Mr Gresham (1/12/04; 04:05:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 115142) Shprockets! (Yeah, that's the ticket!) http://www.gawth.com/~desolate/sprockets.html Welcome to Sprockets. I am your host, Dieter Welteke.Much gold is to be sold. Do not ask me why. Your questions have become tiresome.Would you like to touch my monkey?Now is the time on Sprockets when we dance. That's all the time we have, until next time, auf Wiedersehen! Mr Gresham (1/12/04; 03:49:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 115141) MK: Sinclair http://www.jsmineset.com/ I see Cavan Man has done the honor, but I'll provide the excerpts. My take on Sinclair is that he's someone who believes he may have the ear of decisionmakers at the USG and CB levels, and so he tempers his POG predictions, hoping to get in the door to influence monetary policy.You and I know we can be but informed observers of the monetary meltdown. He is probably just conscientiously speaking from what platforms he finds about today's monetary relationship to gold's ascent.Of course, doesn't the "Gold Cover Clause" (I should Google it someday) require a peek into Fort Knox? Followed by an off-season visit to Santa's Workshop. Geraldo, where ARE you?I think the thrust of the O'Neill and other publicity lately will convince that these people are beyond caring for the public outcomes they cause and are only out to enrich a few backers. Public be damned. Makes our golden lifeboat all the more necessary, and the recovery (hiding out) period all the longer. What was that quote below: "Buy gold, and pray for those who don't."Me, I'm done rescuing people. "Whom the gods would destroy..." About time to order some seeds, and soon to get dirt under my fingernails.MONEYWEB: You talk $470 to $480 and ounce. Would that be the end of it? Would that be the end of gold's run this time around?JIM SINCLAIR: We would hope so, because if gold moves above $529 then it moves out of a normal bull market form into a runaway market, similar to what occurred in late 1979. And any rational analyst understanding the reasons why gold would do something like that would not be necessarily wanting to predict that. So I'd rather stay with the high estimates made for the euro, create the hypothetical euro, move back in time to general trading range of gold, and suggest that if gold was to trade into the $470 to $480 level that it would fulfill the high estimates made by the most acceptedanalytical firms that exist now, the international investment firms.MONEYWEB: What about thereafter? Would you see the metal collapsing?JIM SINCLAIR: A great deal depends on where we go after November 2004, because clearly we've applied right now in the period of 18 months the entire Roosevelt anti-deflationary programme applied between 1930 and 1941, including a war or two. So the fiscal stimulus supported by monetary ease has been to such a degree that we've created one of the better equity markets and one of the more spectacular business recoveries that we have by historical precedent. The question comes how far does fiscal stimulation or war-related economy via pre-emptive strike and anti-terrorist programmes take an economy, and what does the decline in the US dollar, the major settlement world currency, mean in terms of latent inflation, because the CPI and PPI, measures of inflation, are such lagging indicators? And also because those indicators have been adjusted so many times during 23 years of falling prices that, in fact, they may never again really be able to recognize significant inflation, and bearing in mind that the true definition of inflation has nothing to do with prices, it's a monetary definition. And in that situation we're in a hyper-monetary inflation. So does that factor into the world economies? Does it factor into gold through that? Does inflation take the place of dollar depreciation as the driver of gold? But that's pure speculation, that's analytical speculation. What you do know now is that there is strong world opinion amongst accepted voices in finance, which of course move the greater amount of money, that the new personality in gold I'm going to suggest is in fact the international investment banks’ clients, who would naturally deal in that as an offshoot to the prediction of the lower dollar. Now, leaving that, and taking that as solid real evidence, something that could not really be argued away, you can come to a conclusion. That's the reason why gold came through $400 and that's the reason why gold is going to go to approximately $480. Above that, you'd need another driver because of the extreme downside of the hypothetical euro. Take the euro model and simply go back to the currency values that make up the euro and see what its level was in 1971 through 1981; equate that to the price of gold, give or take a percentage of 10%, so you have an error factor, if gold goes above $480 it would require that inflation became the driver along with the downside in gold ["dollar" -- transcription error]. It would require the USDX to be below 0.80, and that's a mouthful. Because the truth of it is it does no one any good. Not the gold holder or anyone else.Dan Norcini follows in response to Jim: "Those who wrote me are stunned at what they believe was a very conservative price estimate on your part. I have explained that they should read between the lines at what you were saying where you make reference to other factors besides the Euro level that affect the price of gold, most notably inflation factors...."I am of the opinion that inflation will indeed be the driver as the Fed must inflate or die Jim. There is too much debt in the system and either the Fed inflates or default is in order. The latter is unthinkable unless we want our nation looking like Argentina. "Also, I realize that the international investment banks are basing their price projections on the hypothetical Euro model - I do believe, however, that such a model is fundamentally flawed for projecting a gold price since we are in uncharted territory compared with the conditions that marked the late 70's. It is no doubt good for initial projections but falls short in my estimation. Of course - that is the Austrian school speaking in me. :o) "In Sinclair's reply: "...2/ The Gold Community should understand that to communicate with the non-gold community you take each move a step at a time or else they shut right down on you."3/ After $480, the driver will be inflation in the form of Stagflation."I think Sinclair is echoing something like I think I remember Another saying: (paraphrase) "Your gold will make you wealthy in dollars, but you won't like it." (Now WHO was that?) FreeWillie (1/12/04; 03:30:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 115140) ****342.1**** "Hi ! My name is Ernst Welteke and I sink that Germany should sell its Gold because ... all sis brouhaha about gold and se euro was just a diversion so we can work on a cashless (and goldless) society where buying and selling is conducted via se good offices of a convenient little chip in your hand. Goldilox (1/12/04; 02:23:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 115139) Silver Again http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=SLV.FX1 OK, all you Revelational Theorists, silver is at 6.66 as of 01:20PST Goldilox (1/12/04; 02:17:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 115138) Last but not Least http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1 Au - $428.60 at 1:12AM PST Goldilox (1/12/04; 02:06:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 115137) DX Look Out Below http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y&Interval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10 DX - 84.83 at 1:05AM PST Goldilox (1/12/04; 02:03:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 115136) Hi HO Silver http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=SLV.FX1 $6.70 at 1:00AM PST OZ (1/12/04; 01:54:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 115135) Ag and Au at 3:45am ag at 6.73 USD$Au at 428.4 USD$ Goldilox (1/12/04; 01:29:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 115134) Fed's pugnacious policies hurt economies http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/FA10Dj01.html snippit:"Greenspan turns market into alcoholic for free $Far from being an emergency shot of whisky to calm nerves, Greenspan's reaction to 1987 turned the market into an alcoholic craving the free flow of money. His longer-than-necessary monetary easing was directly responsible for the debt bubble decade of the 1990s, from which the global economy has yet to recover. The short deep crash and short mild recovery scenario has continued into 2004 in a long term downward spiral. What Greenspan has done is to palliate sharp recessions with long-term gradual economic decline, a replay of the Japanese game plan. The end of the business cycle is brought about by a gradual decline of the economy. In his speech, Greenspan presented his view of this gradual decline by crediting rate reductions for mild recessions but explaining modest recoveries with Keynes' liquidity trap without acknowledging Keynes. Greenspan called it "financial head winds". Greenspan gave the Fed and himself credit for raising the Fed funds rate 300 basis points over 12 months that he claimed "apparently defused those nascent inflationary pressures" in 1994 and he claimed success for a "historically elusive soft landing" in 1995. He even went on to claim "the success of that period set up two powerful expectations that were to influence developments over the subsequent decade. One was the expectation that inflation could be controlled over the business cycle and that price stability was an achievable objective. The second expectation, in part a consequence of more stable inflation, was that overall economic volatility had been reduced and would likely remain lower than it had previously." This claim is simply not support by facts."Goldilox:A rather long, but well thought out examination of Sir AG's San Diego speech by Henry C K Lui. Henry pulls no punches and discusses the FED's roll in the last few financial events of consequence. Have a couple beers set aside for this one, but it's worth it. omegaman (1/12/04; 00:02:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 115133) *****447.50*** "Hi ! My name is Ernst Welteke and I think that Germany should sell its Gold because....erh...because...err...the international banking establishment says I...errh...we should because...if we don't then the world economy will...err...not accomodate the...oh forget it! Goldilox (1/12/04; 00:02:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 115132) Silver @ GandalfIt looks like silver wants to add another little green X or two tonight.$6.60 and climbing. Caradoc (1/12/04; 00:00:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 115131) **************$462.5****************** Hi ! My name is Ernst Welteke and I think that Germany should sell its Gold because we want to be polite. You see, we leased all that gold long ago to friends of ours who sold it and invested the money elsewhere (at rate of return higher than they were paying us for the gold) while expecting to be able eventually to buy back that amount of gold at a cheaper price in order to end the lease arrangement. Strangely, the price of gold is going up instead of doing what our friends had planned. In this situation, it would cause embarrassment amongst our friends -- many of whom are also relatives -- if we were to ask them to return the leased gold. And we all know that causing embarrassment is not polite. So, once we "sell" the gold at an undisclosed price to the nice people who already leased it, this whole awkward situation will go away without embarrassing anyone. I hope you all understand now. Ernst "go along to get along" Welteke ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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