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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 4/12/2001 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Just waking up (04/12/01; 23:12:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 51795) To Mr. Gresham If the dollar, yen and euro were all losing purchasing power in tandem, wouldn't the pog rise proportionately? Or are the controllers of the dollar, yen and euro forcing the pog down to cover their currency debasement?Kind regards Gandalf the White (04/12/01; 22:58:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 51794) Horatio (04/12/01; 22:17:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 51792) --- CDE http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/chart.gsp?&s=CDE&time=1m Horatio --------SHHHHHHHHHHHHH !!Look at the Link Chart !the VAST majority of the Volume was in the last 18 minutes of trading and the HUGE 90K total was in the runoff AFTER trades had "stopped". --- YES, something is about to break and someone knows ahead of the announcement ? NAW !!(DISCLAIMER -- YES, the Hobbits own this Silver Paper.)<;-) Mr Gresham (04/12/01; 22:44:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 51793) Quest? All right, Sir Michael... Did you send all the Knights out on a Quest today, and forget to tell me and a few others about it? The Castle echoes loudly in its emptiness...(I could get theological here, and ask if there is a peculiar form of Rapture for goldbugs, and of course I've been disqualified from going along...) Horatio (04/12/01; 22:17:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 51792) cde CDE up 40 % today,any news ? auspec (04/12/01; 21:37:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 51791) Mr. G Credit Bubble Links/Articles Thanks, Mr. G. for these links, very thought provoking in regards to the uniform and obscure debasement of all currencies. Digestion is in process, looking forward to a churning discussion directly ahead. Mr Gresham (04/12/01; 19:15:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 51790) another one http://216.46.231.211/guest3.htm Here's another one on the credit bubble; I think it's gonna be a good read... Mr Gresham (04/12/01; 19:11:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 51789) Peter Warburton article http://216.46.231.211/guest.htm Let's see if I can get this off my screen (and get my tax program back to work, since it grabs memory and freezes things up when I'm online)From Prudent Bear, some fairly original thoughts here (a differentiation between money and credit), on topics we've hashed over..."The debasement of world currency: it is inflation, but not as we know it""But was inflation dead, or merely sleeping? Residual fears that it may only be a long sleep led the US authorities to establish the Boskin commission, whose charge was to deliver inflation a heavy blow to the head. ..."They [government economists] argue that, if double-digit money supply growth can sit happily alongside a 2% or 3% inflation target and an appreciating currency, then surely the argument is settled. ..."There are some things that only money can do. However, there are many other things that credit can do just as well. The avalanche of non-bank credit that has swept across the economic landscape over the past 20 years has altered it beyond recognition. ..."And what of the periodic bouts of monetary excess, in late-1998, late-1999 and again over the past 3 months? These can be explained by the increasing fragility of the financial system. The more obvious are the system's weaknesses, the greater is the fear of collapse and the larger the demand for liquidity within the financial markets. ..."In this way, we can arrive at a crude understanding of the paradox of disconnection: how volatile and often rapid monetary growth rates can be consistent with seemingly low and stable inflation outcomes. ...This is not because their instincts were at fault, but because they were looking in the wrong place."However, this does not explain the strength of the US dollar: surely the value of the dollar in relation to euros and yen has to collapse under the weight of excessive money supply growth and a huge external payments deficit? Well, I certainly thought so as recently as December 1999 when I wrote a bulletin for Flemings entitled ‘US dollar: selling the silver and leasing the gold’. Now, I'm not so sure. I am coming round to the view that the external value of all major currencies is eroding and that this general erosion is able to substitute for at least a portion of the decline that one might expect in a particular currency versus its peers. ..."The fatal flaw in the ‘inflation target’ mentality"Unfortunately, there is a giant flaw in this logical structure. Restraining the growth of the money supply does not prohibit the excessive expansion of the credit system, unless banks have a credit monopoly and operate only as lenders rather than investors. ..."Where is the flaw? It lies in the fantasy that the stock of borrowings (of all types) can somehow be divorced from the money stock. ...In the limit, the construction of excess capacity gives rise to debt default, as the idle portion of capacity does not earn an income and cannot service the debt that financed its construction."However, since all debt is borrowed money, in order to write off a debt, it is necessary to destroy part of the money supply. It may be that the debt was structured as a bond issue rather than a bank loan; it doesn't matter. The bondholders exchanged money balances for those bonds when they acquired them. If the bond is cancelled, this money is lost. Actual and impending losses give rise to a desire for additional liquidity in the financial system. Here, only money will do. "Central banks are engaged in a desperate battle on two frontsWhat we see at present is a battle between the central banks and the collapse of the financial system fought on two fronts. On one front, the central banks preside over the creation of additional liquidity for the financial system in order to hold back the tide of debt defaults that would otherwise occur. On the other, they incite investment banks and other willing parties to bet against a rise in the prices of gold, oil, base metals, soft commodities or anything else that might be deemed an indicator of inherent value. Their objective is to deprive the independent observer of any reliable benchmark against which to measure the eroding value, not only of the US dollar, but of all fiat currencies. Equally, their actions seek to deny the investor the opportunity to hedge against the fragility of the financial system by switching into a freely traded market for non-financial assets. "It is important to recognize that the central banks have found the battle on the second front much easier to fight than the first. Last November, I estimated the size of the gross stock of global debt instruments at $90 trillion for mid-2000. How much capital would it take to control the combined gold, oil and commodity markets? Probably, no more than $200bn, using derivatives. Moreover, it is not necessary for the central banks to fight the battle themselves, although central bank gold sales and gold leasing have certainly contributed to the cause. Most of the world's large investment banks have over-traded their capital so flagrantly that if the central banks were to lose the fight on the first front, then their stock would be worthless. Because their fate is intertwined with that of the central banks, investment banks are willing participants in the battle against rising gold, oil and commodity prices. "Central banks, and particularly the US Federal Reserve, are deploying their heavy artillery in the battle against a systemic collapse. This has been their primary concern for at least seven years. Their immediate objectives are to prevent the private sector bond market from closing its doors to new or refinancing borrowers and to forestall a technical break in the Dow Jones Industrials. Keeping the bond markets open is absolutely vital at a time when corporate profitability is on the ropes. ..."The US dollar is not as vulnerable as it may appear"The key to understanding how this can happen is to consider how little information the flow of funds accounts provides about the true ownership of assets and liabilities. As far as the US external capital account is concerned, hedge funds based in the Caribbean are overseas investors. The activities of overseas branches of US commercial banks are also considered to be foreign transactions. Also, London, and Zurich are clearing-houses for all manner of nominee accounts and anonymous trusts. Around two-thirds of all US bonds recorded as UK-owned belong to UK entities representing non-residents. To fear that foreign investors will one day abstain from fresh investment in US financial assets, leaving the current account deficit uncovered and the US dollar prone, is to suppose that foreigners are the sole instigators of these external financial flows in the first place. It is quite likely that a substantial proportion of these external flow-demands for US corporate bonds and equities are, in fact, US-originated. US residents’ subscriptions to leveraged hedge funds reappear as foreign investment in US securities. US commercial banks’ overseas branches borrow in euros locally to invest the proceeds in US bonds, playing the yield curve."Thinking in these terms, a collapse of the US dollar versus the euro appears much less likely. It may still occur, but more plausibly in the context of cancelled credit lines and forced asset disposals. The obvious example is the slump in the US dollar against the yen in 1998 as the hedge funds lost their credit lines from Japanese banks and were compelled to unwind their carry trades."Beneath the surface, the values of the dollar, the yen and the euro have been eroded simultaneously by the over-extension of credit. The latent losses in the credit system, emanating from non-performing loans and defaulting bonds, represent a charge against the value of the currency, as surely as if the edges of the notes and coins had been trimmed away. There has been a reduction in the quality of credit rather than an increase in the quantity of money (net of write-offs). The search is on for a valid yardstick, a measure of monetary value that has not been (and cannot be) distorted by central banks’ firefighting and wrecking tactics. "The search is on for the perfect hedge"...I'll leave a bit more for you to read; my apologies if I've brought too much or too little here. It was just too good to overlook, and I'll want to re-read it a couple more times... Mr Gresham (04/12/01; 18:06:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 51788) Rockgrabber, Topaz "They like the idea of leverage, and have been trapped by the thought of faster, easier, smarter, money they think."I remember that feeling of "smartness", discovering options and the first one that doubled for me (Pfizer, $200 to $400) promising me easy riches at an early age (snarf, snarf!) Oh how instantly clever we are the day we discover the leverage of options! (Maybe 'cause it sorta rhymes? "Leverage"/"cleverage"? The trouble is all the other clever guys, and the pros that are playing them (over and over, as a new busload pulls up to the casino's front lobby, and the old ones slink away with emptied pockets).Topaz: "....now if Another was to address you by saying; - Any friend of Friend of Another is a friend of a friend of mine - you'd know it was Another. <wink> "That's the kind of recursive loop that used to crash my programming PC at work, and I had to Debug step by step to find out which semi-colon I had entered was telling it to format my hard drive. It starts out sounding like one of those "All men are Socrates" logic statements, but I think I've personally just had a stack overflow. R Powell (04/12/01; 17:56:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 51787) Hat trick day POG, lease rates and XAU all up for the day. The lease rates still show backwardation and have remained higher than normal for long enough to convince me that whatever the cause is, it's more than a temporary glitch is the system. Mining stocks turned higher (almost vertical on the charts) just before closing but any price movements in the last hour of trading just before a three day holiday weekend is suspect. Maybe 42 brokers with shares for sale went home leaving only 3 brokers behind, those three looking to fill buy orders. Sometimes when trading gets real light those remaining to trade are the most playful of the lot. Who knows? Anyway, a good hat trick day to set the tone for Monday! Rich auspec (04/12/01; 17:39:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 51786) Gandalf the White Asian Currencies Thank you, Sir Wizard, for the article in regards to Asian currency swapping arrangements. That part of the globe is clearly unifying when you see China and Japan linking their currencies in ANY fashion. You asked...."Will the new A+3 financial thinking include that YELLOW stuff?" The answer is a resounding YES, for numerous reasons. China will soon have a free gold market. All of the countries involved still have historical and cultural predelictions towards gold. They learned who they cannot trust in the 1997 and 1998 monetary crisis', so they turn inward and to the one thing they can trust, GOLD. Gold HAS moved from west to east. Japan linking with China and moving away from IMF, in whatever increment, is highly significant.In the global linking of regions and countries it makes sense to link countries of a particular region {consolidation} and later link the remaining entities. Thus, the Western Hemisphere, European, and Asian blocs take shape before our eyes. Questions back at you: Which of these will be the first to make an official tie to gold? I would say the Asians, in spite of the fact the euro is marked to market with gold. Which bloc will be last to fall in line? That one is easy, the US Dollar and its hegemony will be milked to the bitter end!To answer your question..... the Asians will ignore the YELLOW at their peril! Best to the fine alchemist! lamprey_65 (04/12/01; 17:18:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 51785) Gold Weekly I like the odds of a rally next week now that options on COMEX have expired and physical is leaving the warehouse at a record pace. Gold shares waited until very late in the day to forecast a possible near-term move higher in POG.The stock market should resume its negative ways as traders return from holiday.We shall see. Rockgrabber (04/12/01; 17:10:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 51784) Energy Crisis ((cheers to Black Blade)) http://wwwsfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?2/chronicle/archive/2001/04/08/mn118410.DTL I wish to qoute Mr Gray Davis. So here I will. In January I read he said this, "To utilities and the financial communtity, let me say this: I reject the irresponsible notion that we can afford to allow our major utilities to go bankrupt, "he said". "Our fate is tied to their fate". (((great))))(((((Not Mine))))) "Bankruptcy would mean that Californians would be subject to electricity blackouts. Public Safety would be jepordized. Businesses would close. Jobs would be lost. Investment would flee the state. And our economy would suffer a devestating blow". ((these are not just warnings for California, this is for the US economy)) NOTICE later in this article that it is the BIG Oil and Energy interests who controll wholesale electricity. How funny... Everybody puts their money in TECH when that is the sector with no means of making money thanks to debt, and compitition, amongst other reasons. The good ol basic stuff was overlooked!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! including more then all others, GOLD!! Good friday and weekend to all!! Rockgrabber (04/12/01; 16:40:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 51783) Is this why they are going to let paper GOLD burn. http://www.bloomberg.com/feature/feature/986007482.html Why would Mr Joe invest in physical when he can use so much less money for the same position?? They are ignorant as to what is going on right. They are participating in the Option and Futures boom, are they not? Funny thinking many are going to sleep holding options or futures contracts thinking, "well at least I hold GOLD". SORRY WRONG, if you dont hold the GOLD, YOu have no GOLD. I have never heard of paper as being assayed as .999 Rockgrabber (04/12/01; 16:34:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 51782) Trail Guide (FOA, ANOTHER) I must put a thank you, in from my thoughts. You have all caused my awareness to excell. I strive to not be fooled, as I hate to be a fool. Thanks for allowing me to have the insight into not being a fool as much as I otherwise would have. I wonder though. Looking at the markets right now I must have would have thought the paper market was not right. I know your smart investors are buying Gold, just not physical. They like the idea of leverage, and have been trapped by the thought of faster, easier, smarter, money they think. Not the case is it? If I did not know better (thank you) I would think the same. So there is even less smart investors then there appears to be. Physical gold is all I am left with for thoughts of comfort. My initial option investements (GOLD)have went from 30,000 to 0. You warned me. I cant say you did not. I will now take that advice fully. Gandalf the White (04/12/01; 15:50:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 51781) More Thoughts from the other end of the World ! http://www.bangkokpost.com/politics/pol110401.html "Asean countries advance currency swap plans"By David Swartzentruber ---Bangkok Post Wednesday, April 11, 2001 With the value of every national currency in the 10-member Asean group of nations recently declining in tandem with the Japanese yen, the organization has moved a step further in its plans to develop a currency swapping arrangement dubbed Asean +3. The +3 nations are Japan, China and South Korea. The currency swapping idea was first put forth by Japan following the 1997 financial crisis as an alternative to reliance exclusively on western institutions: the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The first objections to the plan were lodged by the United States. The US believed the plan would be a circumvention of the need for Asian nations to institute economic reforms and transparency in their economic systems. Succinctly put, Asian nations would get funds to bail themselves out of liquidity binds with no need to correct the internal problems that led to their economic difficulties, the US authorities thought. Japan continued to advance the currency swapping program and an agreement, the Chiang Mai initiative, was reached in May 2000. In the meeting of Asean finance ministers this past weekend in Kuala Lumpur, the Asean nations renewed their consensus to link International Monetary Fund conditions to bilateral currency swapping arrangements. The bilateral swaps are to be "complementary and supplementary" to IMF economic reform packages, news services report. This condition addresses not only US concerns but also the concerns of financial markets, which don't look kindly on developing nations that don't initiate economic reforms. Objections to the IMF linkage had earlier come from Malaysia. Malaysia did not rely on the IMF or World Bank help to resurrect itself out of the 1997 crisis and has been openly hostile to the western world's economic viewpoint. For the sake of unity, Malaysia appears to have abandoned its position regarding the IMF under pressure from the North Asian countries. However, it won one concession from its partners in that the Asean+3 swap arrangements are to consider the different economic scenarios among members as well as the unique circumstances and financing requirements of individual countries. Another important aspect of the agreement is that up to 10 percent of the maximum amount of a swap could be dispersed without linkage to the IMF to alleviate short-term liquidity problems. Although Asian currencies have swooned in the last few weeks, the Thai baht, for example, hitting a 37-month low, conditions in Asia have changed dramatically since 1997. In most countries, reforms have been undertaken and safeguards instituted to prevent a recurrence of a similar crisis. In their meeting over the past weekend, the finance ministers did take a swipe at Japan when they issued a statement blaming the weakness of the Japanese yen for the region's financial market instability. The next step for the Asean+3 will be the next Asean meeting to be held on the sidelines of the meeting of the Asian Development Bank in Hawaii in May. Most observers generally regard implementation of the Asean+3 as an important step toward insuring continued financial stability within the region. =======Will the new A+3 financial thinking include that YELLOW stuff ? What do you think ?<;-) Topaz (4/12/2001; 15:40:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 51780) Mr G - Another?? Howdy Mr G,Just risen on a fine "good Friday" morn here, (happy Easter one-n-all) and noted "the other's" return.If I remember correctly, FOA channels A's post's via his or another machine, so the "Another' post was probably just FOA testing the link.....now if Another was to address you by saying; - Any friend of Friend of Another is a friend of a friend of mine - you'd know it was Another. <wink> Mr Gresham (4/12/2001; 15:17:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 51779) Peter Warburton, Belgian, LimitUp http://216.46.231.211/guest.htm Here is the link I mentioned earlier; see what you think. No time to excerpt now.Belgian, LimitUp I think it applies to what you were discussing. Belgian: Price trends exist, yes: except when the event has been compressed by political need, n'est-ce pas? Think 7th Panzer here.And we are still so QUIET. Look who's back, and lookee who he brung with 'im? Speechless, anyone? (Me so, sure.) I'm suffering a backwardation of anticipation, R U 2?The calm is so thick; could you cut it with a CHAINSAW??? Randy (@ The Tower) (4/12/2001; 13:34:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 51778) Take note of the last sentence of this first BridgeNews report, and the trend of the second report HEADLINE: Russia may increase gold output to 160 tns in 01, says ministerMoscow, April 11 (BridgeNews) - Russia is likely to increase 2001 gold output to 160 tonnes from 147 tonnes in 2000, Natural Resources Minister Boris Yatskevich said Wednesday, citing a forecast prepared by experts in the ministry. High interest shown by Russian banks in buying gold from producers is seen as the major factor behind the expected rise in output. ---END---And the shape of the international scene continues to change, moving in effect to take the old "foot of the IMF" off of the fair market value of gold. Now (in the next article) we see clear signs of Russia following China's footsteps of gold liberalization....the "mandate" of the eurosystem.HEADLINE: Russia plans to further liberalize precious metals foreign tradeMoscow, April 11 (BridgeNews) - Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to sign a decree aimed at further liberalization of foreign trade on precious metals, the Finance Ministry's chief spokesman Pyotr Afanasyev said Wednesday. The decree will allow gold and silver producers to export the metals directly, while currently only banks are allowed to export them from Russia. ---END--- LimitUp (4/12/2001; 12:51:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 51777) Stay Focused On The Big Picture Thank you to those who tried to answer my question, especially Belgian who answered the question with the same question! A day doesn't go by that I'm not reminded how simple minded the sheeple are. It worries me most about my own kids who I've tried to talk some sense into. They're oblivious to what's going on around them. But then so was I when I was their age trying to raise a family and had no money left over to invest wisely.I have one son who refinanced his house at 110% of his equity just to carry his debt load. If push comes to shove we will rescue them but I'd rather they get smart on their own and put whatever they can into precious metals. Inflation is eating us alive. Most arn't aware of it as it eats us alittle at a time. Why does everything cost 50% more now than it did 20 years ago? The inflation adjusted return on equities over the last 40 years has been about 2% if you believe the cooked official CPI figures. In reality it's alot lower. Come on Sheeple do the right thing and get yourselves some SILVER & GOLD! Mr Gresham (4/12/2001; 12:34:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 51776) 100 Dumbest Moments in E-Business History http://www.ecompany.com/edit/0,2088,11274,00.html LOL -- marking this site so I can get back to read it later... IronHead (4/12/2001; 12:13:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 51775) Shifty and Beesting - Golden Cure; Gauranteed!! Buzz Buzz Good Sirs - To anyone ever awakened by our little friends, this cure is beyond imagination. Living in a cedar home which is an attractant for paper wasps, I get stung numerous times each year. Also being a river guide, we see many customers stung each year. THE CURE: Toothpaste applied immediately to the area of concern, will completely wipe out the pain within a few minutes. Not the gel type, but good ole fashioned paste type. Beats mud, baking soda, or mom's kisses. This works great for those forays into good gold panning country, where the yellow jackets roam too. The dreaded bald faced hornet sting is the one type where IronHead's gaurantee won't applly.Golden Honey to you's,IronHead SHIFTY (4/12/2001; 11:54:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 51774) Beesting Beesting: I knew an old beekeeper when I was a kid. He was about 98 years wise and told me about beestings and royal jelly, bee pollen. Good Stuff. I never found the bee so I don't know if it was Honey, Bumble,or a Wasp! $hifty beesting (4/12/2001; 11:51:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 51773) ET # 51769 Thanks for making me remember Fredric Bastait. http://users.netonecom.net/~gwood/TLP/ref/the-law1.htm IMHO the above is a must read for any ""FREE THINKER""!!Thank You....beesting. beesting (4/12/2001; 11:39:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 51772) SHIFTY # 51768*****I Got Stung! Patiently awaiting the new Golden Thoughts of ANOTHER,Trail Guide/FOA.....Warm Welcome Back!!!Shifty, did you know honeybee venom has many therapeutic qualities?Ref: Charles Mraz***Health and the Honeybee published 1994.I welcome the stings of the bees as it is benificial to sufferers of arthritis.....Me,,,cause,,hereditary!!Honey, along with Gold, was buried in the ancient Egyptian tombs of long ago and the honey is still edible today.Honeybees are directly responsible, because of pollination, for Billions of dollars worth of agriculture being produced every year.Yes, the sting hurts, but it was that little bee's way of getting a message across as it was being crushed to death.....Message,,,"We will never bother you unless you bother us first, or it is a life threatening situation to us, the Honeybees".Currently selling Honey for dollars and exchanging dollars for Gold as the budget allows....beesting. Christian (4/12/2001; 11:28:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 51771) Commodity money-Fiat money Commodity money is no longer in use for every day transactions. Gold is now used like many other commodities to monetize debt for central banks are expanding the fiat money supply by issuing credit through the act of lending. Every 11 days the entire above ground gold supply changes hands for credit creation. This credit creation gold entitles the holder to create $2600 worth of credit per ounce of gold. The concept of the money multiplier which in its basic form is simply the recipicol of the required reserve ratio is what determines the price of the credit creation gold.-- Commodity money is used for trade deficit settlement between countries which are mostly settled at BIS for the present price of $520 based on Gold Commodity price x 2. The commodity gold price is determined by the paper gold price. GSE or the combination of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae make up the new Treasury supply. Japan, Europe, China and others own the bulk of the GSE. In other words they own most of our real estate we live in. The people that have the smarts to create $2600 worth of credit from every ounce of gold own most of the world and the rest of us who can not figure this out work for them. It is a form of serftitute just like in the olden times. Long live the credit creation people. Buena Fe (4/12/2001; 10:38:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 51770) Hmm......build the case! NAM chief says no meeting on US dollar scheduled with O'Neill Washington, April 12 (BridgeNews) - Playing down a statement from his own aide, National Association of Manufacturers President Jerry Jasinowski denied Thursday that NAM officials would meet with U.S, Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill to discuss the dollar. However, he said the NAM was discussing a meeting with O'Neill on general matters, and he agreed with his aide that a strong dollar was hurting U.S. industry. ( Story .18192 ) ET (4/12/2001; 10:27:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 51769) Lew Rockwell - Frederic Bastiat http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=652&FS=Bastiat+Was+Right From the article;"Frederic Bastiat was a French economist, a passionate and articulate believer in free enterprise, who lived from 1801 to 1850. But his writings speak to us today, and help explain why the recent conflict with China has ended through diplomacy and peace rather than belligerence and war. "The answer can be summed up in one word: commerce. Glorious, peaceful, prosperity-making, peace-preserving commerce. It was the overwhelming fact that the health of our economies are linked that made the Chinese and US governments realize that both sides have more to gain from good relations than hatred and war. "It was Bastiat who observed the trade-off between trade and war. When goods don't cross borders, he said, armies will. Without trade, there is less to lose from the mass destruction that war implies. Countries that trade have a mutual stake in the preservation of open, friendly relations. This is one reason that free commercial activities promote peace, and why protectionism and trade sanctions generate war tensions. "History shows that war is good for government. In wartime, government gains massive power over society. It is granted a degree of latitude in its use of emergency powers that would not otherwise be permitted. War allows politicians and bureaucrats with a passion for power to use it to the hilt, through taxation, inflation, and regimentation. War destroys things and then permits governments to profit from rebuilding them. It drains the private sector of capital and entrepreneurial energy, and enriches the parasitical institutions of the State. No free society stays free after war begins." SHIFTY (4/12/2001; 10:18:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 51768) Beesting Beestung!!! Beesting: I thought of you yesterday when a bee ricocheted off my truck window frame at 60 MPH and stung the crap out of the back of my neck. It still hurts. LOL$hifty Spooky Tooth (4/12/2001; 9:40:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 51767) All is Humor They will not ring a Bell, before clamity.The Watchman listens for silent footsteps.The Forest is dark, Happy..Crying..Happy. Mr Gresham (4/12/2001; 9:28:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 51766) ANOTHER or FOA For the gold markets to shut down, this must mean Comex and LBMA.Is the current drawdown in Comex gold a unique event, as one of our posters has been keeping us informed about?LBMA's dealings are much less publicized, but how would a freeze-up in their dealings proceed? Which members would be the keys in this, and what would the others do at such an event? Why have no major players broken ranks before? tedw (4/12/2001; 9:24:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 51765) Back Home http://www.usagold.com They may be back home but the mudering swine that are the Chinese leadership have revealed themselves for what they are. Make boycotting Red Chines goods with your USA GOLD a way of life. The Invisible Hand (4/12/2001; 9:06:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 51764) The meaning of Another's reappearance - Some wild guesses Had Another or FOA not said that Another would reappear only when gold's rise was (very) imminent? nummus aureus (4/12/2001; 9:04:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 51763) FOA & Another Welcome back, Dear Friends.A most auspicious occurrence, and impeccable timing.I note, with some concern, the accelerated acquisition of Gold in the Far East. Bearing in mind the current elements in place for oil to exceed U.S.$40+, and a political administration that favors renewed U.S. oil production; Has the Middle East resumed acquisition at the level prior to the Gulf War? My friends in Oman are excruciatingly noncomittal on the subject, particularly the Bank of England sales.Your THOUGHTS would be most welcome. Mr Gresham (4/12/2001; 7:10:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 51762) Yikes! Welcome back, Trail Guide I checked in just at the right time, and wanted to share a great read at PrudentBear's "guest analysis" column by Peter Warburton, but my system is doing strange things too; happens lately after trying to download comparison charts from Yahoo. Grabbed my keyboard "copy and paste" keys, too. So I'll excerpt later after getting a look at our "new poster" here... Usul (4/12/2001; 6:44:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 51761) Viruses? http://www.monitortoday.com/Anti-virus/prevvirus.html Trail Guide: sorry to hear about your problem; one particularly nasty one has been about recently and has been sighted near me (of course, not necessarily relevant to your attack- I hope you are getting some good advice from a reputable source)http://support.shaw.home.com/network/magistr.htmThe other links here may be useful to people for alert information.http://www.cert.mil/antivirus/index.htmCERT® Coordination Centerhttp://www.cert.org/other_sources/viruses.html Trail Guide (4/12/2001; 6:11:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 51760) online Hello again Michael and to everyone here!I have had some kind of a virus attack on my entire computer system. As I just told Michael (privately), I am reduced to using my home based unit to post. Whoever sent this visitor to me no doubt expected it would destroy everything (it was a very good one). It didn't. But, it will be sometime before all my data assets are available again. I'll make some timely posts this weekend and have asked Another if he could/would fill in for me until back up to speed. We'll know in a few days or weeks? Because it's been so long from his last writings, I think he will do it as this period is a somewhat free time for him. So, thanks to all for your thoughts, comments and good discussion. The journey continues (smile).TrailGuide BH (4/12/2001; 6:01:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 51759) Trail Guide, FOA and ....ANOTHER getting ready for posting again?? What a day!! ANOTHER (4/12/2001; 5:56:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 51758) test sample Gold Trail Update (4/12/2001; 5:54:42MDT - Msg ID:51757) The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates. Trail Guide (4/12/2001; 5:53:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 51756) testing sample Topaz (4/12/2001; 3:46:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 51755) Inside It's a bit like watching a Yacht race (around-the-buoy's)if you don't actually know what's going on.Things only take on a meaningful appearance at Turning Marks, as each craft "rounds" in orderly fashion then it's off to the next one whilly-nilly.On each "leg", confusion appears to reign supreme.Like you, I know bugger-all about "Yachting" but with the guidance of those who gather here, we, at least know where the "Rounding Buoy's" are. Inside (4/12/2001; 2:35:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 51754) Trail Guide Where are you... ?Would Another or FOA please post again.... soon... I eagerly await the next instalment.I have read/re-read the complete history many times.. fascinating.. and I am convinced, but I fear I am not quite ready to fly solo at this stage.. there appear to developments unfolding on which I would welcome your wise interpretation... Comex inventories, ECB rate situation etc.Respectfully....... Inside Inside (4/12/2001; 2:02:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 51753) Trail Guide Where are you... ?Would Another or FOA please post again.... soon... I eagerly await the next instalment.I have read/re-read the complete history many times.. fascinating.. and I am convinced, but I fear I am not quite ready to fly solo at this stage.. there appear to developments unfolding on which I would welcome your wise interpretation... Comex inventories, ECB rate situation etc.Respectfully....... Inside Belgian (4/12/2001; 1:47:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 51752) Limit Up rescue. Glad you bring this question to this forum, where it belongs. Isn't it "The Question", w're confronted with, each time we think "GOLD" ?Most of the answers are of philosophical nature, rather than concrete scenarios, how and when, any rescue won't be necessary anymore to save the house of cards.Indeed, the world seems to be able to move any limit...up !As if there is no Titanical iceberg left. As if our navigators are divine. As if the golden (hummm) era is eternal.My 2 cents scenario : the world has become too big and diverse, that a global panic is almost excluded. I don't see a global collapse of any kind. But rather, a slow and continious shift into *Change*. Controlled iceberg-collisions, with hermetic compounds that can be freed from icewater. Money-pumps waiting for renewed global economic expansion.Part of the Debt will be allowed to default. A derivative shock will vaporize the cancerous part of unproductive and speculative money. Economic contraction will place renewed fundamentals for a different expansion. Radical action is to be replaced by concertation. For each dangerous extremethere will be an answer and tool to moderate.No devastating wars. Less destructive arrogance, through monopolistic dominance. There is much more scoop for global balance, without perfect harmony.The reason for my rather optimistic vieuw is that too much people on this globe are aware that "comfortable" live does exist and is achievable. And the winters will become more mildly in the revolving seasons. The entire world seems to remain in control of the damage ?Related to Gold : POG hasn't gone to such extremes that the whole goldproduction has been wiped out. They seem to be allowed to survive and adapt. Central banks aren't selling the last ounce left in their vaults. POO isn't rising as to halt the last automobile. Only a small minority is having doubts about printed paper. And there aren't a million SM speculants, begging on the streets. Have you seen soup lines, recently ? I'm afraid, they're banned for good.Is this some bold New Realism ? Me do think so ? Gold has definitely a place in this rather rosy future, as we are constantly "REVALUATING" everything in live.Changes occur at the "right" moment. We have too much to loose, for being tempted into Radicalism. An exuberantPOG, will not materialise, because of tendency for a more piecefull balance. The Bush "apologee" effect ?Japan is already living with an 11 years old contraction.Japanese citizins haven't turned into beggars and await rather comfortly the end of their contraction.Dollar-Hyperconcentration will give way to Euro-Balancing, for opening a new part of the world to participate in renewed expansion.Gold-Aversion is purely perceptive ! This can change overnight. A minor, even minuscule, price-change suffice to do the job. That little seed on the right place on the right moment. No need for difficult to understand academic arguments...but a possibility for intuitive reflexes to develop is enough. The ones who over-speculated with the noble yellow, will have some fingers crushed. A painfull lesson. The Gold-Drama is in fact the best evidence that Gold is still very important ! Gold will present itself as the ultimate Debt-Tool. I suspect, they are working on it.If I'm wrong, people will do it individually out of instinct. The herd needs only an indicator in wich direction to escape temporarely danger. A price-trend is the most universal indicator. The more fundamental theories will be developped during the escape.A cataclism is only possible when we all make the same mistake at the same time. Is there any chance this can happen ? Is the euro/gold providing the escape ?So in an attempt to answer your question, I have to come up with the same question. (smile for understanding, please) Old Yeller (04/12/01; 00:13:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 51751) The big dam springs another leak? http://www.prudentbear.com/boards/user/non-frames/message.asp?forumid=4&messageid=39829&threadid=39829 This topic has been discussed here and elsewhere over the past couple of years,however,I can't recall it getting much media attention.It's all about perception now,many arrows seem to hitting their marks.The dollar's old reliable allies,who could be counted on for their compliance in "stressfull" times,appear to be developing and implementing independent strategies.Thanks to everyone posting on the Comex situation.Something seems to bubbling in there.The last COT I saw was incredibly lopsided for the long commercials,the increased physical off-take certainly adds a new wrinkle to the intrigue. justamereBear (04/12/01; 00:08:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 51750) US dollar index link http://www.quotewatch.com/charts/futures/NYCE/DXY0-intraday.html Peter Asher ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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