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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/12/2001 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Horatio (11/12/01; 23:11:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 65233) A Dollar BILL What is a Dollar bill? A bond is evidence of debt,no? A bill is evidence of debt,no? when debt keeps getting shifted to shorter and shorter time frame it will ALL, sooner or later become a "BILL" with no time frame designated for payment.In other words a "demand" evidence of debt with payment due on demand.Thats when all the debt has been monitized,in other words converted into "DOLLARS".The Gumment will have no debt and the populace will get screwed by a defacto devalueation. Do the math and convert all the bonds and notes and bills into Dollars and you will have a 90 % devaluation against GOLD.Todays Dollar will buy .10 cents worth of goods it buys now. Mr Gresham (11/12/01; 22:56:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 65232) Trail Guide Take a well-deserved rest, friend. It will allow us time to catch up on our reading, and thinking. Hearing from you again will be all the sweeter when we're prepared in days to come. ORO (11/12/01; 22:49:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 65231) Black Blade - war for oil You are absolutely right.The question that remains is what degree of complicity the pro-oil faction and the "war of cultures" people had in allowing the AlQaueda plot to proceed. Did they let the WTC attack happen because they expected the towers to survive, as was asserted at first in the media (before the buildings fell, of course)?. I am still surprised by your reluctance in accepting the idea that the secret services were and are functioning in favor of the oil companies and related bankers. They were first assembled by Dulles, an oil and bank lawyer for the Rockefeller faction, who staffed the CIA and NSA with hand picked top officers, and then having TX and WA DC streets and buildings named after him and his brother who created much of the State department's ME and commie departments. Horatio (11/12/01; 22:44:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 65230) Commodities & Tangable assets Tangables Oats are leading the way !After a long period at about 1.14/bushel ,now trading at the $2.00 range!!A hugh move!Wheat ,corn'soybeans and Silver are showing bullish signs in the futures markets. Australian dollar also.The U.S.Dollar looks enemic right here.Oats have been known to lead the way in bull markets,if this is accurate the metals will be swept up along with them since they are all tangable assets including the Austrialian and Canadian dollars .They represent resource based economys. The feds move to mask inflation by getting rid of 30 year bonds will be for naught!The fed has control over short term rates and no control over long term rates and the 30 year bonds were indicating inflation by rising yields.The tried to cover this up under the pretext of having to pay less interest on the short term borrowings.Everybody knows money "now"is more valuable then money 30 years from now!The purchasing power is lost!!The treasury has opted for a short term gain in exchange for long term losses.Whats going to happin when inflation shows its ugly head and treasury has all its borrowings short term?Almost overnight the nations debt could double !!!If interest rate goes up from two percent to three ,a one point increase gives a 50% increase in the governments totol debt! What a nightmare!No wonder Greenspan and treasury are trying to cover up inflation as the countrys economy sinks!They dare not raise short term rates .Clinton and Rubins legacy...go for the short term gain ,worry about the problem later... A devaluation will be the only way out!!!!Devalue against what you ask!! The only thing not fiat is GOLD... megatron (11/12/01; 22:15:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 65229) Horatio Your loss was sad, but an eventuality in the insane world of gov't controlled rackets like futures exchanges. The case with silver is slightly different as there is no 'yellow' silver to be delivered. They will merely cheat citizens out of their hard earned efforts. ANYTHING remotely conected to Alan Greenspan should be investigated to the screws on the floor. If this was Sicily someone would have wacked him and Levitt long ago. Ahhh the good old days. Gandalf the White (11/12/01; 22:14:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 65228) Thanks Gold-fly !! -- PS: say GOODBYE to the US$ !! http://www.securitytrader.com/charts/chart.asp?availability=F&index=DOLLAR&ChartID=36226&ChartType=D SIR Gold-fly -- The quest is yours!!!ALL -- Say "Goodbye" to the US$!!! TA chart (see link) shows two forthcoming breakdowns dead ahead. <;-) tedw (11/12/01; 22:03:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 65227) How to become a millionaire Re: Bob Chapmans futures adviceIt is possible to control those same silver contracts via options with a lot less personal risk. Black Blade (11/12/01; 21:10:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 65226) Leigh and Cavan Man - It's All About Oil! Nothing surprises me anymore. Besides, without oil (Energy), the US is just another Third World backwater. The US must have and consume "energy" at all costs to maintain Global Economic dominance. So a War in Afghanistan on the pretext of fighting terrorism but in reality for oil supply should not be surprising. Stranger things have happened. Cheers!- Black Blade Horatio (11/12/01; 21:09:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 65225) Silver Even with double margin,your still at risk!I once owned 10 sugar contracts and there was no sugar available to be delivered!!Nice position to be in Right!Wrong.Guess what they did?They allowed sugar from India to be delivered against the contract,it was yellow in color and definitely not "deliverable grade" ,they broke the rules!I then lost $35,000 in profits before I could exit .Sometimes *&%# happins even when your right. Galearis (11/12/01; 21:08:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 65224) @ Netking and other silverbugs There IS a silver shortage now showing up The following is an email recieved from one of the largest precious metal dealers in North America in response to a query about missing product:**********snipDear X: I notice that you no longer offer silver bullion in sizes otherthan1000 oz bars and coins. Is this because of lack of supply or lack ofdemand for these products?Dear R,We no longer carry the 1 oz silver bar because no one is making them. Asfor the 100 oz silver bars the premium on them is just to high at themoment. Once the premium comes down we will once again carry them on theweb site.Have a nice day,D.****************Well, well, well.We are close,socloseGP.S. I think the respondant is incorrect about the small bars. But I think the supply is getting tighter in the small sizes too. Black Blade (11/12/01; 21:03:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 65223) Northern Alliance Takes Kabul! Just hit the wires - the Northern Alliance is in the center of Kabul. Also reported is that the Taliban took foriegn aid workers hostage as they fled. Rumors of mass killing of Taliban prisoners and Taliban leaders run like scared goats. It sounds like party time in Kabul tonight.- Black Blade Horatio (11/12/01; 21:02:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 65222) test test Leigh (11/12/01; 20:53:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 65221) Cavan Man No, sorry, I never saw that. My eyes kind of glaze over at "guy movies." Besides, back then I had no idea I was going to be a goldbug and would need to know about oil and such. R Powell (11/12/01; 20:51:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 65220) sector Silver and default It is a given in almost every commodity market at almost any time that there are more contracts than there is quanity of the commodity. In the unlikely event that enough long contracts called for delivery AT ANY PRICE, then default would, of course, occur. However, almost all those contracts are players of the paper game. Study the situation with fundamental or technical analysis or by examining the entrails of a chicken if you think that's where the answer lies and then place your bet if you care to play. But realize that 98% of the players are playing for whatever current fiat paper money is currently in fashion. This is a money game. There is a extraneous actual short position in gold and silver created over many years by the sale of leased metal but even the end result of this remains to be worked out. If indeed it results in default, the paper game will continue and will be settled, as usual, in fiat. Those who are trying to possess the physical metal through the use of Comex are indeed at risk. If it is physical you want, call our host CPM and order what you want, there's no risk there. The risk of default is a risk of physical default, I don't believe fiat game players will suffer. But your warning is noted, after all, just death and taxes right?? Rich Cavan Man (11/12/01; 20:47:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 65219) Hi Leigh Have you ever seen "Three Days of the Condor"? It is a good Redford/Max Von Sydow flick. "OIL" is featured prominently in the story if I remember correctly?? Leigh (11/12/01; 20:45:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 65218) Goldfly I've only read a couple of articles in the past about Mr. Templeton, but he has a warm place in my heart. I'm from Tennessee too! I'm glad that FOA keeps company with such a truly nice person. Leigh (11/12/01; 20:40:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 65217) Black Blade Ron Paul said two months ago that this war is about oil. Black Blade (11/12/01; 20:37:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 65216) It's All About Oil http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/droke111401.html Interesting article about the "War Against Terrorism." Droke says that it is all about oil. If there is a glut, then why all the fuss? "Interesting Times"- Black Blade Cavan Man (11/12/01; 20:35:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 65215) Hey slingshot I don't buy it; not at all. A lot of things can happen in flight, takeoffs and landings included; but explosions are extremely rare. One would need to go back to TWA 800 and then perhaps back to the Pan Am disaster. The fact is the cargo is NOT CHECKED AT ALL. Passenger bags are SPOT checked. R Powell (11/12/01; 20:23:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 65214) Netking/ margin requirements Thanks for the article from Bob Chapman. The margin requirement for a gold or silver futures' contract is $1350. This is the minimum and will result in margin calls if the gold or silver loses fiat value. Margin calls not immediately satisfied result in the broker closing the position. At one hundred ounces/contract, margin of $1350 only covers a $13.50 downturn in gold. At 5000 ounces of silver/contract, $1350 covers a 27 cent move down in silver. This is risky business!! With enough backing I believe Mr Chapman is correct and am thinking of doing something similar to what he recommends but I'm thinking of the December 2002 and the December 2003 contracts so that I won't have to roll them over. There are also ways to cover them against loss with the use of options, sort of like insurance that you hope you will never need. Stop orders can also limit loss risk or lock in profits while letting the position ride. Again, this is risky business, speculation, gambling- call it what you will. However, I can't find any reason why silver isn't priced higher (although I can speculate as to why) and do think it will be in the near future- much higher although it may depreciate some more (with all commodities for a short time) before it goes higher. I believe it will move very fast when it happens. As always, this is presented FWIW as food for thought and not as investment advice. There are far fewer risks involved with metals in hand than there are with futures contracts or options (derivatives) ...but, the leverage or potential for outrageous profits in the paper game is extraordinary. (smile) FWIW, I am leveraged with silver options and have coins hidden all over the place. Rich Netking (11/12/01; 20:13:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 65213) Airbus A300 Specifications http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,38588,00.html A300 Spec's for those interested.------------------------------------------------------------Sector - "The Hunt's drove silver up because default was avoidable by simply selling US reserves to cap the 1980's rally. Not today. No more silver left."Netking > Howdy Sector, Comex actually changed the rules so that no NEW long contracts were allowed, but short ones could continue as previous. The existing contractual long contracts of 1980 had margins hiked up double(+) and were settled in fiat at close out. Shortly before changing the rules the heads of Comex went short silver in "massive amounts" and made it was alleged billions. sector (11/12/01; 20:04:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 65212) @Netking Chapman, Silver and Default Getting to a million with $20,000 as Chapman suggests is a great idea that misses a crucial likeyhood...that the COMEX and British metals markets will simply default on futures and options for precious metals.In other words, there will never be government agency [JPMC], open market purchases of physical metal to "cover" short postitions or to "repay" metals loans. The markets will just fold in these metals like Kuwait's Souk el Manaque...the fraudulent, corruption born "stock" market described by Veneroso in his classic essay.The government's Hobson's choice of whether to suffer the financial ignomy of default or the actual loss of metals purchases is an easy call. Rationalize the ignomy...default!The Hunt's drove silver up because default was avoidable by simply selling US reserves to cap the 1980's rally. Not today. No more silver left.Forget about using market rules to get rich. The rules will be changed to suit the situation as a function of National Security. Chapman continues to not get it. He hasn't been able to GROK the fact that governments act in their own best interests even if those actions contradict law. He still rails about injustice. JPMC has already commited fraud in the Hamanaka, Sumitomo copper case which JPMC lost. Offshore accounts, huge kickbacks...the sordid corrupt works...all from the FED's Bank.Corruption...It's the new government financial paradigm. One sees only what one looks for. Look and you will see it coming...all around you Goldfly (11/12/01; 20:04:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 65211) This May Be of Interest http://www.templeton.org/sirjohnbio.asp SNIPAs a pioneer in both financial investments and spiritual endeavors, John Marks Templeton has spent a lifetime encouraging open-mindedness. If he hadn't sought new paths, the native Tennesseean-still a fulltime philanthropist in his late 80s says "he would have been unable to attain so many goals".ENDGandalf - you da man.....Well, not THAT man..... BR549 (11/12/01; 19:48:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 65210) During OPEC's 40-year history, most groups that have attempted to control commodity prices have collapsed, victims of weakening demand and abundant supply in the hands of non-members. http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Commodity%20Spotlight&touch=1&s1=blk&tp=ad_comspot&T=markets_fgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_bbco&bt=ad_bottom_bbco&s=AO_9x6BYWT1BFQyBJ ``Oil, diamonds and gold have outperformed free market prices,'' said Andy Smith, a precious metals analyst at Mitsui & Co. in London. ``All other attempts have more or less failed in the end'' because producers couldn't control supply, he said. ``Coffee failed; tin, bananas, rubber, you name it.'' "Even the world's most successful price controller, the De Beers diamond cartel, has conceded that it's lost control of prices because of falling demand and competition from countries and companies that aren't cooperating with its method of buying up and storing surplus gems. The South African company had maintained near-monopoly power to set prices that way since 1889, buying up new mines or coddling their owners to play along with De Beers' stranglehold on the supply of uncut diamonds. Price fixing in other commodities lasted as long as the material was needed, supply was limited, and consuming nations saw some political merit in allowing the agreements to persist. "BR-An interesting perspective on why controlling commodity prices does not work and why the POO attempt by OPEC will be equally unsuccessful. The Rusisan's have renigged and S. American may not be far behind. It seems that the House Saud would not be comfortable with a non-manipulated market POO at $10/Brl. BR549 sector (11/12/01; 19:40:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 65209) @Pandagold Blair, O'Neill and Epipahies Of what you speak are epiphanies.Those events which alter everything and no matter how they try to conceal it, the effected ones remain visibly altered. You used Tony Blair as your example. Consider Paul O'Neill as a list leader.He came to Washington riding a personal horse of corporate straight talk...at home with the press. He spoke his mind. A metals man...a man of management integrity...we all were informed through his trumpeting biographers.Then something happened. He stumbled with the press. He lost his cadence. He stuttered in Congressional hearings. He rummaged through important political china shops, breaking delicate dishes.Along the way the truth of gold manipulation was "explained" to him by the Master of the Universe and other acolytes. He was initiated. Changed forever. Corrupted. Made heartless by the Federal Reserve's Nationalistic rationalizations which crushed gold producers of the Third World while "helping" support "our" currency.Oh, to have been a fly on the wall during those conversations! To have pressed the shutter button at the precise moment that he realized the unvarnished truth about the Federal Reserve, Rubin, Summers and Clinton.If one looks, one can see similar changes in many of the President's Cabinet. slingshot (11/12/01; 19:38:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 65208) Engine Failure On the news tonight it was stated that one engine had 960 hours since inspection and the other was approaching its 10,000 hour inspection. It may be that a part did not meet its full expected service time. Failure can happen before HIGH TIME REMOVAL. After the investigation and it proves to be this problem they will redesign or lower the in service hours. Lots of information in the engine logbook and they seem to be looking at it very closely already.Slingshot Black Blade (11/12/01; 19:38:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 65207) Producing nations' support of OPEC quota cut may surprise markets http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=126422 Snippit:HOUSTON, Nov. 12 -- With a little help from their friends in Russia and Mexico, energy ministers of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries seem determined to reduce the group's oil production quotas by 1.5 million b/d at their meeting Wednesday in Vienna. That will likely trigger a period of even more volatile energy price swings as world energy markets try to adjust after apparently underestimating world demand for oil and overestimating the willingness of non-OPEC producers to make up any production cutback by OPEC, analysts said. That show of support seemed to undermine previous predictions by many energy traders that major non-OPEC producers would bring more oil to market to replace any that OPEC members back out. "Although OPEC is willing to sacrifice market share near term for the sake of higher prices, we believe the cartel will ultimately regain market share, as the only non-OPEC country that poses a credible threat longer term is the former Soviet Union," said Bruce Lanni, energy analyst at the investment firm of A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. "Furthermore," said Lanni, in a report issued late Friday, "if you assume an annual demand growth rate of 1% following economic recovery, this translates into a need for an additional 800,000 b/d and does not take into account a worldwide natural field decline rate estimated at 2.6%, or another 2 million b/d."As a result, he said, "The contraction on the supply side is overwhelming the weakness on the demand side. After last week's figures showing US oil demand at an all-time high for October, there is also a suspicion that the weakness in oil demand could be far greater in market perceptions than it may prove to be in reality."Black Blade: And a record short position by traders could set up a short squeeze of epic proportions. Interesting article. "Interesting Times" tg (11/12/01; 19:34:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 65206) Forget Bush and Blair Whether Bush or Blair are trustworthy or not is a mute question. First of all, I have never seen a trustworthy politician, and second they are only mouthpeices and personalities for the pupeteers who control them.We have only a pretend democracy, we are ruled by a secret oligarchy. Netking (11/12/01; 19:28:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 65205) "How to become a millionaire" - Bob Chapman Taken from 'Silver Investor.com' & written by Bob Chapman of 'International Forecaster' "If you have been reading this newsletter you know that the best bargain around is silver. As this is written silver is at the unbelievable price of $4.10 an ounce. The US government will be completely out of silver in 2002, from an inventory of literally a billion ounces. The price is this low only because of silver leasing of far more contracts than physical silver exists. In order words, the silver could never possibly be paid back. We will not go into all the reasons silver is going to explode in price. If you want more information go to www.silver-invstor.com, and www.butlerresearch.com. The first rule of investing is to buy low and sell high, but very few people actually practice this rule. The world has very little silver and Warren Buffet owns a quarter of it. Silver went to $50 twenty years ago when there was plenty of silver available. Please remember that $50 then is $100 now with inflation, so silver could easily go to $100 when we flat run out of it in about three more years. There are very few silver mines in the world and 70% of silver is a byproduct of copper, zinc, lead and other mining. So, how are you going to be a millionaire for $20,000? Get $20,000 in cash. Open an account with a commodities broker. Buy four COMEX futures contracts of 5,000 ounces each,which will let you control 20,000 ounces. The usual margin is $10,000, but you will use double margin so you will never meet a margin call. Silver would have to fall to about $3.50 before your broker would need any moremoney and that is unlikely to happen. Get your contracts six months out and do not use a stop loss since double margin is used and it is unlikely silveris going to drop 40 cents in price from $4.00. Roll them over every six months for $200. You can pyramid when you have profits but we do notrecommend you do this as it involves greed. You can pyramid very lightly when silver goes to $10 an ounce for example. When silver goes to $50 youwill be a millionaire plus. If it goes higher you will be even richer. You are risking $20,000. If you have always wanted to be a millionaire here isyour once in a lifetime chance. If you are already a millionaire here is your chance to be a philanthropist and benefit the world in whatever you believe to be needy causes. If you doubt silver can go up ten or eleven times in price just look at the fact it already did that when silver was readily available. Also, look at the fact that palladium recently went up ten times in price in only four years. Even if they change the rules in the middle of the game on the COMEX, as they did with the Hunt brothers; it may not affect you as you already have your long contracts. We feel this could be a once in a lifetime opportunity none of us will ever see again. We missed out on this twenty years ago and we are not missing out again. This does not mean you should not buy silver and gold bullion, coins and stocks." R Powell (11/12/01; 19:25:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 65204) Wonder Where The Silver Went That's the name of a chart in the October issue of Futures Magazine which showed the percentage change in mine production. It shows a decline and projected decline that shows a 40% decline from 2000 to 2002 with the trend declining from there. I asked for some clarification as to how this was derived and received the following response today. Subj: Re: Fwd: Wonder where the silver went? Date: 11/12/01 8:39:07 PM Eastern Standard Time From: jamesdatamining@yahoo.com (James Chisholm)To: Akjpowell@aol.com Hello Mr. Powell,Those numbers were derived from looking at actualpaper USGS numbers. I added up all the silver Icould find in the world in a stack of volumes releasedby the USGS that occupies a whole section of alibrary. However, for a while there, I also added allthe silver production from all primary and byproductgold, copper, lead, etc. from a site calledhttp://www.minecost.com/This site is frequented by all the metals analysts onwall street, matter of fact all the major metal miningcompanies and what not as you can see from the list ofcompanies that frequent this site:http://www.minecost.com/list.htmAfter adding up over 100 excel production mine sheetsfrom this site, I noted that Leadville numbers- a minewhich had so much production as to have outsizedimportance for fundamental examination- as bogus onthis site, as they had the wrong units listed on amine for gold production, and conversely for silverproduction as well. So I went with my own numbersderived from paper records instead, and using themajor mines as a good estimate of how much producedsilver was out there. Once a source provesquestionable, one has to go with a more reliablesource of information.At the request of several traders and investors, Ihave completed a fundamental article on silver forDecember, 2001, release in Futures Magazine. I alsohave a thesis on the subject of the silver markets,which as it goes into an area of data miningalgorithms that is unique, is not for re alease orsale. There will also be several more articles afterthat, but they will concentrate more on data miningand predictive methods on markets, unless people wantmore articles on silver. Thank you for your interest in my first article.Respectfully,James Cormier-ChisholmPresidentChisholm Strategic Consulting BR549 (11/12/01; 19:14:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 65203) Body language-very positive for both Bush & Blair Panda---I did not say there was no such thing as body language. I would be willing to bet my stash that I have conducted more "job interviews" than you have. I use it all of the time.What I said was some uneducated "shrinks" utilized "body language theory" to project his own political prejudices with some sort of justifiable rationale". Some of these obviously self-taught "amateur psychologists" should spend some of their home schooled education time in learning how to comprehend what they read rather than "making up" how others think because of their so called "shifty eyes". (which do not exist in either George Bush or Tony Blair). Of course someone who knows body language would already know that. Black Blade (11/12/01; 19:06:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 65202) U.S. Oil Prices Plummet After Plane Crash http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/011112/business_energy_markets_dc_1.html Snippit:NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices plummeted after a plane crash in New York heightened demand worries, adding to market disappointment over a token oil production cut Russia has offered to help OPEC shore up battered oil prices. The market was also weighed down by an International Energy Agency (IEA) report that the West has a comfortably large stockpile of oil ahead of the winter. Black Blade: Of course the airlines are in real trouble as fewer people are ready to board airliners after Sept. 11th, and today. Oil drops as there is less of a need for jet fuel. Then again more people are likely to drive. Statistically it is safer to fly, but when the engine in a car breaks down you don't fall to earth at 120 MPH in a ball of flame either. As more people decide to drive, more fuel may be consumed. "Interesting Times" Black Blade (11/12/01; 18:57:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 65201) NY gold ends up but jet-crash rally stalls http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/011112/n12538842_2.html Snippit:NEW YORK Nov 12 (Reuters) - New York gold futures jumped Monday after a commercial airliner crashed in the borough of Queens, in a reflexive flight to hard assets by traders still jittery two months after the Sept.11 attack on Manhattan. Black Blade: Oversized lawn-dart noses in NYC and gold jumps, but falls back when it appears to be accidental. New Yorkers just got to be a bit nervous every time an airliner cruises overhead. Just proves that Gold performs at times of uncertainty. The latest rumor is that birds may have been sucked into the engines and may have contributed to the planes problems. "Interesting Times" Black Blade (11/12/01; 18:47:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 65200) Tokyo's Nikkei Average Below 10,000 http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/011112/business_markets_japan_stocks_dc_1.html Snippit:TOKYO (Reuters) - Tokyo's benchmark Nikkei average dropped below the psychologically key 10,000 mark in morning trade on Tuesday after the crash of a passenger plane in New York unnerved market sentiment. Further weakness in bank shares also contributed to the slide.Black Blade: There were rumors a few weeks ago that a couple of major Japanese Banks were about to go under. The rumors also stated that the government would likely bail them out. Perhaps they did just that. The Nikkei has resumed its drop below 10,000. Can't let the DOW have all the fun. Pandagold (11/12/01; 18:46:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 65199) BR529 So its all mystique, mumbo jumbo? BR529: There is nothing mystical about 'body language'. It is all part of the natural survival instinct. It is used by all animals to detect friend from foe. Humans use it unconsciously in many situations.If you have a dog, ever wondered how he knew what you were going to do, before you started to move. Ever wondered why he 'instinctively' liked some stranger, and not another. If you are married, or have a close girl friend, just ask her how she instinctively knows what you are up to from your body language. You don't have to open your mouth. Ask them why they always look at a man's eyes.Many large corporations use it to detect the type of person you really are, not what you say you are, during the interview process for that executive position. ( Oh, you didn't know?)As I said, most people use it unconsciously, and therefore don't realise the importance of it and therefore don't bother to study it. You, sir, are obviously included in that category. Pandagold (11/12/01; 17:46:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 65198) Leigh The system Leigh: Yes, much of what you say has some bearing. The next time Blair comes on your screen, I want you to notice just how he is looking these days. At first, I thought only I had noticed, but now the media is picking it up - mainly because it is now becoming so obvious. He is a man with a very troubled mind, and it is showing.Many politicians (not all) are basically straight God fearing guys when they set out in their careers. They have principles, are patriotic, and have a desire to serve their nation. On their way up the ladder ( I will try and keep this simple) they are chosen for their naivety, or certain weaknesses, plus other positive attributes, as the ideal tools for those who really manage the country (ones you don't elect) to serve in high office. It is all done very subtly, they are befriended, special PR goes to work, and doors are opened for them to ensure they get to where they are needed.At some point on the way, they learn what the score is. But then they are caught in the euphoria of being part of the power process. Unfortunately, they have to shelve some of their ideals. They are pressured into doing things which would normally be against their principles. Decisions are made for them. They realise they are merely pawns or puppets in the system and that they are serving interests which are not necessarily the interests of their country. They are trapped in the system.The more basically honest, and principled, a person they were, the more they become troubled. Man cannot escape his mind. As someone said - "It is hard to fight an enemy who has outposts in your head." I hope you can pick up from that very sketchy outline the point I am making. You can fill in the rest at your leisure. The system is against you, high office is no place for honest, upright men - or even being your own man. If you go against it (them), you seal your fate. One way or another, they get you. ORO (11/12/01; 17:45:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 65197) Black Blade - "glut" cont. The "oil glut" in the US starting in 1981 with the price control release, was composed of the following:Increased domestic oil supply: From 9.5 Mb/d at the 1976 bottom to 10.3 in 1980-84 and then to 11 in 1986.Reduced oil demand due to response to price:Previously mentioned drop from 1978-9 peak winter swing of 4.5 Mb/d to nothing in 1985.A general drop in consumption from 17 Mb/d in 74-5 and 19 Mb/d (over 21 Mb/d peak) in the late 70s to 15 Mb/d in 1983-4, from where consumption growth was resumed - but at such a slow rate that 20 years later we have yet to reach the peak consumption levels of the late 70s, and just barely reached the average levels for the period.A decrease in relative prices by about a third in 1981-3 and then by half again into 1986 is definitely a sign of a glut. The glut being composed of a 1 mil increase in domestic production, and a 4 mil decrease in demand, as a result of there being a market price. BR549 (11/12/01; 17:23:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 65196) Bush: No shifty eyes, no negative body language-just a great leader Leigh---I liked your Jack Ryan article in an earlier post. Jack is indeed like the current President and the anti-role model of the previous president. In your latest post, I agree with you (as I do most of the time). I could tell those were your own thoughts. (Quotes are placed around any of the remarks that are the words of others). I happen to agree with you about the President, with the exception that he does not have shifty eyes and negative body language, and therefore there is no reason to justify his mentality. He is a true leader who has put the best team together in the history of Presidential cabinets. He does not wish to please everyone, and has his own ideas, rather than having to take a poll every day to find out what to do, like the previous administration's group of eggheads had to do every day.. Panda on the other hand, judges the President via some sort of "insincere psychological mystique" that sound like the rantings of an amateur "shrink". Not one educated like a psychiatrist with M.D. training, but one who utilizes "body language theory" to project his own political prejudices with some sort of justifiable rationale. George Bush became President on 911 of all of the people, not just those who voted for him. BTW-Tony Blair has grown into his job as a world statesman since 911 also. Putin is headed in the same direction. Not at all what the cowards of 911 intended to achieve.BR549 ORO (11/12/01; 17:20:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 65195) Black Blade - oil "glut" issue from last week The oil "glut" I refer to came not from the actual marginal increase in supply, but from a market response to market prices (as opposed to 50% discounts forced by gov.) which was the following:During price controls:Oil consumption swings in winter grew from 2-2.5 MB/d from spring lows to winter peak, to 4.5 MB/d in the late 70s.Immediately following the release of price controls, the swing went back to 2 Mb/d and then disappeared.I did another historical check on the coal-oil issue and found that I had made a mistake: the "clean" coal issue became substantial only in 1975, when the EPA "grandfathering" ended partially and coal burning plants were required to meet higher standards. The main reason for the price spike in coal in 1969-70 was simply greater demand: production inched up at a 9% rate going from 1968 to 71 while capacity grew 3%. Thus utilization went up from 92-3% levels of the mid 60s to peak out at the very odd figure of 102% of capacity. Needless to say, the market was stressed. Relative prices grew accordingly. I have not completed the analysis of the reason for the coal capacity shortage - why was there such a large error in coal demand projections, the like of which did not occur before or since. So far, the main issue seems to have been the negotiation of the clean air act going through Congress during the 1967-8 period raising uncertainty as to the viability of future demand for coal. This is similar to the situation in CA during the meandering negotiation of the "deregulation" bill, when utils sat out the investment cycle and did not build substantial new capacity. Netking (11/12/01; 17:08:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 65194) Chinese Bank Prepares for Opening of Gold Market http://library.northernlight.com/FA20011112530000090.html More on China & the developing Gold market;The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) will actively participate in the operation of the Shanghai Gold Exchange which will start trial operation on November 28, said a spokesman for the ICBC. The spokesman said that, as a financial member of the exchange, the ICBC is making preparations to meet the opening of the gold market. He said that the bank has been following the preparations of the gold market since April this year, and has formulated capital clearing plan for gold trading. The headquarters of the bank has set up a gold market working team to manage related issues. So far the ICBC has worked out a range of service plans, including clearing, storehouse, gold trading, leasing, financing for gold projects, gold purchasing, gold investment projects, gold import and export and individual gold trading. . . . "------------------------------------------------------------Sir Douglas Trailguide - Thanks for your contribution & more power to you. Look forward to more after your travels.Cheers Murray Gold Trail Update (11/12/01; 16:31:29MDT - Msg ID:65193) The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates. Leigh (11/12/01; 16:30:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 65192) Pandagold Pandagold, I've been thinking about what you said yesterday about Bush's "shifty eyes" and negative body language. Could it be that he's a man divided? Think - he was/is heavily influenced by his father, Bad Daddy Bush. BUT, he became a born-again Christian in mid-life (the rest of the Bush family doesn't appear to be particularly reverent). He is surrounded by globalists, and these are men he has respected all his life. But he himself respects the traditional American ideals of freedom and sovereignty.How can this man, who seems to desire to do right, reconcile these two viewpoints? He doesn't have a strong personality. He wants to please everyone. Could that be his failing, rather than inherent evil? (BR549, I know what you're thinking, but these are just my own personal thoughts and musings. They're not a pronouncement of fact.) ORO (11/12/01; 16:15:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 65191) Old Yeller - Franco-centric Europe The EU, to the extent that it does offer the "alternative" to an "American dominance" or an "American inspired globalism", aka free markets, what is it?Is it France waiting for a then non-existent UN Security Council resolution to try and regain independence in WWII?Perhaps it is the transfer payments that suck the life blood out of Europe's taxpayers in industrial nations to subsidize French farmers hanging on to their "history" at everyone else's expense?Perhaps it is the French elite's comprehension of themselves as the inheritors of Napoleon and his predecessors in the Paris Commune? Are the intellectual and cultural heritages of either of these episodes of French history worthy of preservation as part of the "European alternative" and at the cost of people within Europe and without who care little for them?The term Laissez Faire came from the French idustrialist's reaction to Loius' taxation and regulation. We Libertarians are very much the followers of Bastiat, Hugo and Voltaire, among others. The French elite are not.Is the Feudal legacy of Europe worthy of preservation? Guilds, serfs, aristocrats, and the occasional murderous uprising against them?I say that it is exactly these items of European heritage that the French and the EU elite want to retain that their people would reject if free to do so.The French elite and their foot dragging followers in Europe are simply trying to preserve in their hands powers that no one should ever have had in the first place. The essence of "...economies with standards, social emphases, and social protections.." is that the Frenco centric European political elite decide the standards and whom they favor, decide what social aspects to emphasize, and decide whom in "society" to protect. It is their own relative positions of power and wealth that these people seek to "protect" at the expense of the rest of European society.The "Amercian inspired globalization" threatens them with exposure of the economic costs to their people. So far, only a minor flow of Europe's technical, and business talent has "flown the coop". As the differences in EU and US development in technology (particularly biotech), corporate management, and hopefully (in future) in rational environmental and labor regulation expand, the US will break away from Europe in all measures of economic performance. Though our politicians stand in the way, their easy susceptibility to financial encouragement will set them back on track. The crusty European business and political elite is largely a unified stratum of society that changes little despite some deregulation and the growth of some non-elite companies to prominence. The EU politicos are less susceptible to financial incentives to change policy because they are so well integrated into the business elite, thus restricting the possibility of economically viable policy making. slingshot (11/12/01; 15:09:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 65190) Grubstaker Msg#65154 Ah Yes, the Premiums. I have noticed that some coin dealers are charging more over the spot price. The increase in buying physical has got their attention and they want to squeeze alittle more out of the small time investor before the spot goes out of reach. Due to the amount of Fiat that I am allowed to purchase Gold or silver, my window of opportunity is small. I believe demand is up and filling orders are a problem in my neck of the woods. Just my observations. When SPOT JUMPS, I will be able to sit back and smile for eventhough I do not have a much as some others,I have done the best I could under the circumstances.Thanks to all at the forum and USA GOLD.Slingshot Old Yeller (11/12/01; 14:52:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 65189) Europe and the US;partners on divergent paths http://www.iht.com/articles/38553.html Elements of FOA's visions in this piece. Netking (11/12/01; 14:43:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 65188) Saudi Dissident Says Al Qaeda Planning More Attacks http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20011112/ts/attack_saudi_threat_dc_1.html Yada Yada . . . But wait there's more, The latest rhetoric,Snippet:(Reuters) - Osama bin Laden (news - web sites)'s network of supporters in Saudi Arabia is planning a strike against government or U.S. military interests in the oil-rich desert kingdom, a leading Saudi dissident said Monday.``There is credible information of an impending attack inside Saudi Arabia -- and one wonders whether inside America itself,'' Saad al-Fagih, head of the London-based Movement for Islamic Reform, told Reuters.Bin Laden, prime suspect behind the September 11 hijack attacks on the United States, is believed to be sheltering in an Afghan hideaway as U.S. jets and troops from the opposition Northern Alliance pound troops of his Taliban protectors.But the tentacles of the Saudi-born multi-millionaire's al Qaeda network of Islamic extremists stretched well beyond the borders of Afghanistan (news - web sites), Fagih said, permeating deep into Saudi society.``Bin Laden has thousands of supporters in Saudi Arabia who look upon him as a national hero. A number of his circle speak very confidently about something happening there soon,'' Fagih said. . . . "------------------------------------------------------------With the P.O.O. having reached a technical bottom any major disruption (especially prolonged)in the Saudi Kingdom will cause a sharp gamma spike in the oil price, maybe this is the "back door" method of hurting the West further. . .- Netking slingshot (11/12/01; 14:30:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 65187) Engine Separation from Wing Possible causes. Failure of fuel nozzle. Blowtourch effect cutting internal scavange oil lines which after ignition of engine oil could cause an explosion. Combustion liner collasped. Air blockage and impaired fuel atomization. Possible explosion. Bearing failure. Forward then aft movement of eitherCompressor rotor or turbine assembly. complete engine failure. Possible exit of engine turbine disc and or turbine blades. Whatever the cause jet engine mounts are pretty hefty and would take a substancial force to break and the engine separate from the wing.Slingshot ORO (11/12/01; 14:07:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 65186) Belgian - subsidy vs. bankruptcy Very astute observation. US Congress and President fall for smoochers trying to suck tax payer resources to cover their errors waving the FAA no-fly order as what had produced their problems. This intervention is a very negative sign of policy direction in Washington. In this case, "bipartisan" means that the carriers with large Union contracts were bailed out in order to save Union jobs - for Dems - and save airline execs and some shareholders and cash from their lobbyists - for Reps.I commend the regulator's and gov. resistance to bailing out Sabena in Belg.. On the other hand, Swissair was bailed out, very bad "omen" for Swiss reactions to future shocks.If the politics of Europe do move from "communitarian" socialism towards a more free market economy then there is much hope for the continent and its euro. Unfortunately, the euro's management is lacking, and EU member govs. are still discussing a lift of their debt cielings decided in the Maastricht treaty. German reductions of the cap gains taxes are a good sign, as is some tendency to loosen labor regulation. But the overall trend in policy, so far as I can make it out, is still neutral for the EU, with the central EU gov. pulling to the socialist side, while the individual govs seem to be moving in opposite directions in different policy areas. The base from which they start, however, is not a positive one (for free markets).A remark on Japan. A small article from the current Harvard Business Review discusses the rise in the rate of overseas mergers and acquisitions by US and European "vultures" like Renault and Ford in autos, and Citibank in banking. Seems like Japan is beginning to work out the liquidation of the terrifically bad investments of the bubble years, that half a decade of 0% interest rates did not cure after one third of a decade of 2-3% interest rates had not fixed the problem. $57 billion down, $1.5 trillion to go. Hopefully, the rest of the $6 trillion of underperforming weak debt there will improve performance once the resource drain by the weakest debt is removed. uponroof (11/12/01; 14:01:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 65185) American Airlines A300 Airbus at JFK Photo http://www.airliners.net/open.file?id=115054&WxsIERv=QWlyYnVzIEEzMDBCNC02MDVS&WdsYXMg=QW1lcmljYW4gQWlybGluZXM%3D&QtODMg=TmV3IFlvcmsgLSBKb2huIEYuIEtlbm5lZHkgSW50ZXJuYXRpb25hbCAoSWRsZXdpbGQpIChKRksgLyBLSkZLKQ%3D%3D&ERDLTkt=VVNBIC0gTmV3IFlvcms%3D&ktODMp=SnVseSAxMCwgMjAwMA%3D%3D&WNEb25u=Sm9uYXRoYW4gRGVyZGVu&xsIERvdWdsY=TjE0MDY1&MgTUQtODMgKE=VGFraW5nIG9mZiBvbiAzMUwuLi5pbnRlcmVzdGluZyBzb3VuZCB0aGVzZSBBMzAwcyBoYXZlLi4u&YXMgTUQtODMgKERD=NDc3&NEb25uZWxs=MjAwMC0xMC0xNg%3D%3D&static=yes No small plane.What are the chances that this is an 'accident' at an already shellshocked NYC. Why not anywhere else in the USA or world? Why NYC......yet again? Cause: Airlines hoping for terrorism, markets hoping for normal wear and tear failure, gummint hoping green ink doesn't run out. goldquest (11/12/01; 13:55:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 65184) Goldman Sachs Tipped Off On Bond http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp? Gee, I wonder how this happened? It could not have been Robert Rubin, I'm sure! BR549 (11/12/01; 13:49:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 65183) )—" Who's going to agree to provide help to the underwater small gold producers and at what and whose terms?" Old Yeller (11/12/01; 12:30:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 65180BR-Great question. Here is my guess--Take Enron stock trading at say $100/share; have your accounting firm go back and restate earnings over 4.5 years to reflect an adjustment downwards of $1.2BB; the stock market then devalues your market cap back to a 90% loss of new market price of $10/share; Dynergy then generously offers say $25./share for controlling interest; remaining stockholders sell for a profit above market value at $15/share; the $75/share reduction in equity value then disappears into thin air.What will happen to Gold miners? Stock trading at $50/share; accounting firm audits and determines that forward sales entered into via derivatives over next five years below cash flow needed for on-going operations due to unanticipated increase in mining production costs; stock market then devalues market price of stock to $5/share; mine either goes out of business or sells to larger mining operation at $10 share; the $40/share reduction in stockholders equity value then disappears into thin air.Aren't paper equities wonderful?BR549 Netking (11/12/01; 13:38:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 65182) Sector Good comment Sector, and as Peter Jenning's reports pointed out earlier in his interviews. . . There was a "large fragment of wing" before the engines location. The expert who had 30 years experience (can't recall his name, it was too early in the morning here!) said these wings "can bend vertical, they don't break off outside the engine!" the comment was that "mid-air dis-assembly" took place from whatever cause. . . I guess we can draw our own conclusions until the investigation is concluded.------------------------------------------------------------Trail Guide - Time for ANOTHER update to the trail good Sir!<smile>- Netking jb (11/12/01; 13:06:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 65181) "black friday" just started reading that book ,written by james patterson in 1986.pick-it up .very lite stuff.my better -half wanted me to get away from everything and the he could do iget me this book to read.it is about bombing of manhatten,etc. Old Yeller (11/12/01; 12:30:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 65180) Echos of LTCM In regards to the Enron saga,this stands out;"As part of the purchase,Chevron/Texaco Corp,which owns 26% of Dynergy,agreed to provide Enron with $2.5 billion." Wonder what else they agreed to?Wonder if there is long-term benefits to be realized for helping the markets over yet another derivative hurdle?Who's going to agree to provide help to the underwater small gold producers and at what and whose terms?We await the machinations. BR549 (11/12/01; 12:29:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 65179) The $1.2 Billion accounting ERROR http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO.AHIRVcQW5kZXJz "Arthur Andersen LLP may face U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sanction and shareholder lawsuits because it certified Enron Corp. financial reports that the company disavowed last week as inaccurate, legal and accounting experts said. Andersen, the world's fifth largest accounting firm, served as Enron's outside auditor for more than a decade, assuring investors the company's financial statements conformed with generally accepted accounting principles. Last week, the company reported that it overstated earnings by $586 million over four-and- a-half years, inflated shareholder equity by $1.2 billion because of an ``accounting error,'' and failed to consolidate results of three affiliated partnerships into its balance sheet. Enron restated its financial reports as the company suffered a cash crisis triggered by disclosure of the cut in shareholder equity and the start of an SEC investigation. On Friday, Enron, the largest energy trader, agreed to be acquired by Dynegy Inc. for $23 billion in stock and assumed debt. "BR-That's the solution—hang the bean counters just because Andersen has already paid $130MM in fines to the SEC this year. After all, everybody makes an ERROR. Please define how an ERROR (singular, not plural) that took place over a three year time period took place. I assume that Andersen Accounting takes their SEC fines to the bottom line as a regular business expense that offsets their "Fines Payable" entries for their ERROR. The poor Enron stockholders that took a bath from the 90% decline in their equity value should be able to get some Andersen compensation also. How many more billions will be lost in the "paper" market because of "risk shifting"? If the SEC did its job, even incompetent firms like Andersen should be able to find the derivative trading hidden in the balance sheets and income statements by requiring full "risk management" disclosure. The BIS needs to do the same thing for its member CB's. BR549 sector (11/12/01; 11:39:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 65178) As a Pilot with 4000 hour Command Time... ...Much can be gleaned from a close examination the engine that detached and landed at the gas station:* Did the engine show burn marks from a fire prior to detachment?* What is the nature of the approx. 30 inch hole being examined by the firefighter shown in NBC video stills?*Did the hole in the cowlling exhibit entrance or exit fragmentation damage?* Was there compressor blade exit damage? These few findings could contribute a great deal towards the final determination of the cause of this disaster. BR549 (11/12/01; 11:23:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 65177) Three crazy things to do--- 1. Buy Argentina Bonds2. Sell physical Gold3. Fly on a commercial airliner anywhere Netking (11/12/01; 10:44:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 65176) Oil producers ready to cut crude output http://smh.com.au/news/0111/13/biztech/biztech14.html Snippet:Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Mexico will cut oil production this week to remove a glut and boost prices, hovering near two-year lows, the official Saudi news agency reported.The three oil-rich nations "agreed on the need to take the necessary measures in the coming days to cut the current output surplus," officials of the three nations said.Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi and his counterparts from South America, Mexico's Ernesto Martens Rebolledo and Venezuela's Alvaro Silva Calderon, delivered the statement after meeting in Madrid.Mexico, which isn't a member of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, joins non-OPEC oil producer Russia in reversing its opposition to cooperating with OPEC in its efforts to reduce excess oil supplies from the market and boost prices that have fallen close to 30 per cent over the past two months."Prices could climb to near $US25 a barrel with the cooperation of non-OPEC states," said Mohammed Abduljabbar, an analyst with Washington's Petroleum Finance Co. "I'm still sceptical that non-OPEC might say one thing and do another," he said. . . "------------------------------------------------------------This after Russia with it's very significant oil contribution (after the Saudi's) agrees to cut production also - Netking USAGOLD (11/12/01; 09:43:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 65175) Today's Commentary http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html Ed. Note: Here we reproduce a portion of the Commentary & Review to give new visitors an idea of what goes on at our client-only page. Access is made available to prospective clients here with a free, one-time registration for access codes. You'll also gain access to our News & Views: A Quarterly Review of Forecasts, Commentary and Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. 11/12/01 In Brief: Gold surged higher on international markets this morning on news that a commercial jetliner crashed into the Queens borough of New York City. There were reports that a bomb may have been on the plane, but no verification at this time. There are reports that the FBI is investigating the source of the "explosion," and that the Transportation Department investigating it as an "accident." Gold had already tracked to the upside in Asian markets during the night on continuing strong physical demand, but lost momentum in London. Gold trading is characterized as thin due to the Veteran's Day holiday. The London Bullion Market Association reported the second lowest gold volume numbers on record. The reduced volumes at the LBMA reflect the unwinding of the gold carry a trade -- a trend that has been in process for several months. We expect the trend to continue. At one point gold was up nearly $5. The sensitivity of gold -- the near immediate reaction to events -- is telling. We continue to advise acquisition of the metal for long term portfolio safety no matter what the price does. Ed. Note: Over the weekend I added a few article summaries and links that I think you will find interesting. (More, go to link below) - - - - - - - Cavan Man (11/12/01; 08:59:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 65174) another eyewitness report.... "The whole wing came off." Cavan Man (11/12/01; 08:40:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 65173) uponroof I travel a lot. Everyone should understand that all the cargo that goes aboard with the passengers on US domestic flights is NOT x-rayed. The security in the airports IS greatly improved post 9-11. However, prior; we had NO security IMHO. One can only hope that the increase in security and precaution is carried through ground operations as well as in the terminals. We need a system modeled on what is used in Europe and in other parts of the world. uponroof (11/12/01; 08:33:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 65172) China enters WTO this weekend http://biz.yahoo.com/fo/011112/1112topnews_1.html Coincidence that the gold market is scheduled to open this month also? (Nov 28)*******************"...Admission means China will enjoy protection against the imposition of barriers on its goods, such as the sanctions that human rights activists have often advocated to punish Beijing for its stifling of free speech and religion and its alleged tolerance of slave labor. The United States will cease the annual review procedure in which Congress considers ending "normal trade relations" with China based on its human rights performance. China, in turn, must make sweeping changes in nearly every sector of its economy, which is both the largest and the fastest growing in the developing world. Most of these pledges were contained in an earlier deal negotiated by the Clinton Administration, which saw more open trade with China as both a means to increase U.S. exports to that country and a as way of pushing Beijing along a path toward private enterprise and democratization..."************************So, as China loses leverage ("sweeping changes") in the trade imbalance it seeks to gain some back through the gold/dollar market? ************************Hummmmmm. Pieces falling off the plane? Bomb in the luggage? Cavan Man (11/12/01; 08:28:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 65171) Per an eyewitness account... "Pieces were falling off the plane." Cavan Man (11/12/01; 08:19:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 65170) (No Subject) Plane Crash AA Airbus 300 down in NY. All aboard lost. Kyrie Eleison uponroof (11/12/01; 08:06:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 65169) POG spike http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html very sensitive to calamity? Or is it terrorism? Or something else?All markets down right now. BR549 (11/12/01; 07:48:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 65168) The hedgers of Enron cause it to be acquired by "Alice in Wonderland's" Dynegy via a reduction in market cap of 67% in just three weeks. http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO__5khSSRHluZWd5 "Dynegy Inc. Chairman Chuck Watson said he's convinced Enron Corp.'s trading operations are sound and described disclosures about affiliated partnerships that helped drive Enron's stock down 67 percent in three weeks as ``financial noise.'' The rapid decline of Enron threatened to bankrupt the company and disrupt energy markets. Enron handles an estimated one-quarter of U.S. electricity and natural-gas trades. A falling credit rating made it difficult for the company to raise capital needed to back trades. As part of the purchase, ChevronTexaco Corp., which owns 26 percent of Dynegy, agreed to provide Enron with $2.5 billion. ``Clearly, Enron has gotten involved in business that hasn't turned out well,'' Lay said, pointing to money-losers Azurix Inc., created to supply water and build related projects around the world, and NewPower Holdings Inc., a seller of electricity to homes and small businesses. ``But you have to keep in mind, too, that 12 years ago we weren't in the wholesale merchant (trading) business. Today that's an incredibly valuable franchise.'' The trading business, which accounts for about 97 percent of Enron's revenue, buys electricity, gas and other commodities from producers and sells them to end users such as utilities and industrial customers. It also advises big business customers on energy use and sells them gas and electricity. Dynegy's acquisition requires approval from U.S. securities, antitrust and energy regulators. Watson expects soon to share details of the new Dynegy with regulators from the European Union and U.K., where Enron operates a trading desk and owns a water company and two power plants."BR-The big get larger and the public interests get smaller. Clearly, the arrogance of the acquirer of Enron's chief (owned in part by the monopoly ChevronTexaco). No problems with Enron's past officers owning the hedge funds that devastated the stock prices. No problems with the hedge practices that artificially fixed prices but will cause energy shortages via their impending default. No problem with the imbeciles in charge of Gov. Red Davis’ Kalifornia buying into the high end of the derivative contracts locking in the exit of their taxpayer dollars going to the hedgers. What would be a problem would be for the U.S. to prevent this acquisition of Enron by this British based bunch of pompous vultures.I am sure that these buyers of derivative power also are sellers of their own manipulations and certainly liars about what Enron has been all about in recent years. BR549 BR549 (11/12/01; 07:41:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 65167) Your Chart of Pompous Prognosticators Waverider (msg#: 65142)I really got a kick out of your link. The modern day pied pipers are alive and well on CNBC.Regards,BR549BTW-Another AA large plane down in Queens. More Terrorism? Or a "normal" plane crash? Leigh (11/12/01; 06:47:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 65166) tedw http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2001/11/8/183540.shtml You'll like this article. Tom Clancy's character Jack Ryan is compared to Clinton and then to Bush. De Ronin (11/12/01; 06:25:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 65165) A New Energy Crisis (and the Danger of Derivatives) http://205.150.121.181/xta-asp/storyview.asp?viewtype=search&tpl=search_body&edate=2001/11/12&vpath=/xta-doc1/2001/11/12/columns/59450.shtml&maxrec=169&recnum=1&searchtype=BASIC&pg=1&rankbase=64&searchstring=field%5Fby%5Fyear Columns -Maclean'sNovember 12, 2001 A new energy crisis If master market maker Enron goes down, this winter could be a truly chilling experience for North AmericansDONALD COXEDo the sustained bear raids on Enron Corp. portend chaotic conditions in the energy markets? That is the $64-billion question. Bearish stock markets are the indispensable scavengers of capitalism. They clean up the financial and economic landscape and kill off disease-carrying pests. True believers in free markets should rejoice when bears rush in after a prolonged period of misbehaviour has fouled the financial environment. Those of us who thought the energy industry would escape the great technology bear market may have been too complacent. In recent weeks, the biggest loser on the New York Stock Exchange has not been a tech stock, but Enron, a component of the Dow Jones utilities index. Enron's high was $89.06 a share, and as recently as August it was trading at $45. In recent weeks, Enron's shares have plunged, closing last week below $12.33 That collapse has sent shock waves through the capital markets. What may be even more significant for energy producers and users is the valuation of Enron's bonds: they are trading at distressed prices, offering yields comparable to junk bonds. The ratings services have turned highly negative on Enron, although they still rate it an investment-grade credit. (I regret -- oh how I regret! -- that I must disclose before proceeding further that investment funds I manage have, at this writing, exposure to Enron stock, acquired at prices substantially above current markets.) For Canadians unfamiliar with Enron and its place in U.S. energy markets, here is an introduction: Voltaire summed up the entire 18th-century deistic proof of the existence of God by saying, "If God did not exist, it would be necessary to invent him." It's the same with Enron. U.S. energy markets needed a prime mover. Prior to Enron, these markets (other than crude oil) were relatively primitive and inefficient. Neither producers nor consumers had means to hedge their risks effectively, and long-term contracts were made -- if at all -- under circumstances of grossly inadequate information. The futures market for natural gas was spotty and unreliable, and no futures market for electricity existed. Enter Enron. In the past half-dozen years, Enron became the greatest trading house for energy in the world. Its willingness to make markets in energy futures in almost any amount transformed the markets for electric power and gave natural gas producers and consumers reliable hedging and financing opportunities, day in, day out. By putting its own capital on the line to make trades, Enron created depth, liquidity and transparency in energy markets. So active were those markets that they gave price signals to all who would follow them. Conspicuous among those who didn't were the policy-makers in California. Had Gov. Gray Davis and his top officials followed the developments in electricity futures, they would have realized the real nature of the risks facing consumers in the Golden State. Instead, they let a crisis develop, and then locked in long-term purchase contracts at all-time record-high prices just before they collapsed to normal levels. By some estimates, Enron is on one side or the other of 25 per cent of all outstanding futures contracts in natural gas and electricity. Since these contracts extend years ahead, and since the other parties to those trades are relying on Enron's ability to cover its obligations, the risks to energy prices and supplies could be enormous if Enron were to default. That still seems extremely improbable. Contracts executed through the public futures markets have the financial protection of those exchanges for Enron's "counterparties" (the term for the other side of a futures contract). But Enron has enormous exposure through direct deals that have no such protection. What has hammered Enron's securities lately is the unfolding story of gigantic off-balance-sheet deals the company made with partnerships that included, astonishingly enough, the chief financial officer, who was finally forced to go on leave. These partnership deals were never really disclosed, except in obscure balance sheet notes that gave no indication of the scale of the deals or that a senior company officer was involved. Why should investors who aren't owners of Enron stock or bonds care? Because the past year has seen the biggest swings in natural gas and electricity prices in history, and some observers wonder whether Enron's internal problems exacerbated those swings. Worse, if Enron has to withdraw from the markets, what about the billions in forward hedging contracts that producers and consumers have in place? Many U.S. energy producers locked in high prices by making huge forward sales. If those contracts are voided, defaults could spread through the system, throwing energy markets into chaos. There were enough problems in the energy-short U.S. even when Enron was keeping the markets functioning. If the master market maker goes down, or is forced to curtail its operations, this winter could be a truly chilling experience for North Americans. When Bush and Cheney aren't worrying about bin Laden or anthrax, they may be worrying about Enron. uponroof (11/12/01; 06:25:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 65164) sector-How will the cartel intervene in the emerging Chinese gold market? http://www.gold.org.cn/indexe.htm Thanks for your heads up post: sector (11/9/01; 19:58:33MT -usagold.com msg#: 65046)The cartel being primarily FEDerally funded, with American interests at heart, will view this from a perspective condusive to the dollar. I don't think there will be any intermediaries. Direct US/China negotiations will most likely determine the POG on their gold market. Now, one must imagine why China opened this market in the first place to perhaps glimpse the goal. I think it safe to say it was not to satisfy their citizens.Lets look a little deeper.If China wanted to ambush the dollar by buying gold in quanity why not just do it on the open market through their central bank? Too obvious with certain political retaliation. On the other hand, by opening this market to the public, indescreet gummint buying in quanity can be attributed to the public (your affluent entrepreneurs). This will give the Chinese the cover they need to manipulate their market without political fallout.Taking this a step further, the cartel (US) must now negotiate dollar protectionism through this obvious decoy so typical of the Chinese. Multi level charades, which play upon the west's policy of not pushing 'the sleeping giant' too, too far, will again be the game. Can't you just see the dollar interests, which supposedly represent capitalistic free enterprise, nervously dicussing ways to control markets with communists. What irony. The Chinese will love seeing the west in this compromise and will hold it against them in many ways. The dollar is an area of vulnerability. Vulnerability equals leverage. I expect the Chinese to play this out to the hilt. I have no idea of what specifically the cartel will offer to satisfy Chinese needs, but all possibilities present cause for concern.Link above seems to be a good place to watch this develope, Any others you know of?Have a great day. Black Blade (11/12/01; 06:25:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 65163) The Market Monkeys - Monkey See Monkey Do! http://www.wallstreetwishlist.com/whatsnew/nov1301/nov1301.htm Good analysis of how the gullible dim investors invest following their lemming-like approach to the markets. In short: "Monkey See - Monkey Do" Nothing new to us here but a good read before heading into the Markets. - Black Blade Black Blade (11/12/01; 06:20:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 65162) Profits off 72 percent in third quarter http://www.msnbc.com/news/656268.asp?0si=- Snippit:NEW YORK, Nov. 12 - America's largest corporations posted steep profit declines again during the past quarter as their struggles with terror-related losses came amid one of the worst earnings squeezes since World War II. Black Blade: And the market is grossly overvalued as profits shrink and share prices rise, the PE ratios reflect a market in denial. The S&P is more fairly valued at 425, the NASDAQ at 700 to 800, and the DOW at 5,000. And it is getting worse as profits continue to fall. It looks to get very ugly should the dim investors wake up to reality. A store of Gold and Silver portfolio insurance against the coming storm is not a bad idea while PM prices are so low. Black Blade (11/12/01; 06:06:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 65161) The Long View: Monetary ammo running low http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3L8WR2UTC&live=true&useoverridetemplate=FTD1OUN2DNC&SectionTag=na/column&PageTag=2cobari&imgID=FTDVQRKBONC Snippit:When the US Federal Reserve cut its key short-term interest rate from 6˝ to 6 per cent on January 3, the Dow Jones Average rose by 300 points in a day. On Tuesday this week the Fed implemented its 10th reduction of the year, this time from 2˝ to 2 per cent, and the Dow jumped by 150 points. The more cuts the merrier? The trouble is, in between these two one-day celebrations the Dow crumpled by 14 per cent to a level 20 per cent below its all-time peak early in 2000. And you do not need to be a skilled mathematician to calculate that if the Fed carries on like this it will, some time next spring, exhaust its monetary ammunition and arrive at the zero interest rate point which Japan hit in early 1999, without benefiting.Black Blade: The FED lowered interest rates 8 times before and during the Great Depression - didn't work. The FED lowered interest rates 7 times during the big inflationary recession of 1973 to 1975 - didn't work. It isn't working this time either. Belgian (11/12/01; 04:31:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 65160) @ Goldfan # 65137 Sir,Our common shared Gold-question, here, is "the dollar".The dollar's history without any other challenging currency other than Gold, and the dollar's future with a possible challenger, the euro, and Gold !Parts of the past are used for linear projection into the future and other parts are abused for that same linear thinking. Unproductive ! There is an increasing possibility for dramatic change on both sides of the dollar/euro equation. I am not going to repeat the old arguments and facts that I presented for discussion. They weren't answered. No market(s) will ever be free. Today, the dollar-market is to be challenged with an adapting/flexible management, old continent style, against a linear dollar style.Look and analyse the geo-political evolutions of today !And as an example, the 78 years old belgian national air company (SABENA): bankrupt and restart with a fully privatized DAT company! The collectivity gives way to increasing privitazation and market laws. The US started (?) subsidizing en masse !The dollar is in competition with an emerging currency. Like it ot not ! For europeans as problematic as for US dollar users. The progressive replacement of the bulk of dollar holdings (all kinds of), within EMU (and outside), is "THE" process, that has taken a start. Considering (doom)the euro as a permanent z(u)ero, is evidence of the same linear thinking that prevailed over all other currencies, within the dollarization. A very dangerous venture for all dollar holders/users (difference between these two).What army is going to prevent an euro-ally (Giant), to use Gold against the dollar ? Exchanging dollar-holdings for Gold to make dollar-users feel very uncomfortable ? With a miniscule part out of the stash of 144.000 tonnes of above ground Gold, it is possible to ground the oceans of floating dollars. !! 300 million EMU members are holding masses of dollars, that progressively will become useless and find substitution in euro's and Gold. Why should we keep these dollars for ? Dollar debts are waiting for a dollar crash. And the dollar producers are pushed into a position of having to defend the dollar's virtual strength at infinitum. Not a very enviable corner to sit in.Dollar strength has only one purpose, today. Making the available alternatives, look, unattractive. A self limiting enterprise in time (trade-deficit). A prolonged war will weaken the dollar further (visible or invisible).EMU has the will to expand from 300 million to 500 million users/holders of euro's. Dollar-excess, will be substituted progressively. A slow process indeed, with possible setbacks, but unstoppable.The world's perceptive association of the safety within the US$ is indeed in some way the result of military supremacy.But think about how vulnarable the dollar is against the leverage of the Gold-Power ! And herein lays the hidden trap. The Gold Powers know this very well and they will bring this Gold Power up at the most appropiate moment.The perfect timing AFTER 30 YEARS OF DOLLAR ROLLER COASTER! Pandagold (11/12/01; 04:06:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 65159) Panda sticks his neck out - again Now let me stick my neck out ( a habit of mine). This time with some positive news for an otherwise dull (here) Monday morning.Any investment in physical gold, today, will produce a minimum 25% profit by this time next year. Not to be snuffed at in these times of low interest rates. Remember I said minimum.Any investment in good quality gold mining stock will produce a minimum of 50% profit. Again note minimum. That should put Newmont around (at least) $35 a share. AEM - at least $15. Drooy could easily double, and Harmony will be way up there. The advantage of the physical, especially if you get some interesting coins, you have something 'solid' in your hands, and delightful to look at on a dull evening, or to show and talk about to your friends.( Some even have a pretty picture of me on it).PandaOh, I almost forgot - IMHO (very humble, but honest) SteveH (11/12/01; 03:52:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 65158) Goldfan and repost Good post Goldfan. We must ask ourselves how much of the 9/11 debacle was an attempt to make the FOA scenario play out, after all the gold was buried? Not a coincidence, it may seem.Here is a kitco repost:Date: Mon Nov 12 2001 01:40Mrw (Why Japan and US comparison (defl. scenario) is wrong - from Goldeye's 20.57) ID#354326:Copyright © 2001 Mrw/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved click here ... ********** The economy’ worst case scenario is a Japan style liquidity trap. This happens when consumers or businesses are unwilling to borrow regardless of the interest rate. In Japan there is so little loan demand that banks are depositing excess cash in other banks. Interest rates are so low it is barely worth it to keep money in the bank. Everyone should be comforted by knowing that America has too much inflation to fall into a liquidity trap. Since Japan is experiencing deflation it is prudent for them to hold cash and defer purchases. Looking at a recent M3 chart, some should watch what they wish for. A period of deflating asset prices combined with inflating goods and services would clearly be a very difficult situation to correct. How likely is this scenario? Enough to be unsettling. Right now the U.S is the world's largest debtor nation and produces very little. At its peak Japan was the world's largest creditor nation and actually produced goods. After its bubble burst the Yen experienced a drop of almost 50%. Again, it OWNED the paper of other countries. Just think how much worse it could have been if foreign investors held Japan's debt and decided sell. ********** This is why the US CANNOT be allowed to fall into the deflationary spiral - all the reflationary stops will have to be pulled to prevent a depression far worse than the 30s. This may have to include a significant forced dollar devaluation and / or Gold Standard. Da Moon and beyond............ Check the link for further on why rate-cuts may no longer have a lag-effect - very interesting. Pandagold (11/12/01; 03:33:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 65157) Something more precious than gold Everyday we are seeing our civil liberties erode. Now the UK is bringing in powers of arrest merely on suspicion ,and holding without trial. Think of this. You will not be able to change things with the ballor box because the options you will be presented with will be 'heads they win. tales you lose'. A slight twist to Henry Ford's 'You can have any colour you like so longs it's black' will be - 'You can choose any political party you like just so long as we pick your selection'.If you try to voice your objection more demonstratively, you will be labelled a potential terrorist as soon as you open your mouth and put away without trial.This is no scare mongering, no flights of fancy, this is for real. And, they have only just begun.Something more precious than gold is being taken from us - FREEDOM! Belgian (11/12/01; 02:09:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 65156) POO What if...The globe should allow and encourage oil-prices to rise steeply on top of a strong contracting economy...?With the only purpose of having a very good and easy to understand reason for an all-out attack on the ME ? Solidarity around the (terrorist) attack on our prosperity !Is this Hollywoodian theory or just common sense (real-politics) ? Or can an increase in the POO, serve the need for inflala/stagflala in the GDP equation = units x price ?Now that the USTB-30 yrs has been removed, it is perhaps easier to cap (temporary) the upward bias on the short term IRs.Is the POO going to corner (valuate) the dollar ? And will a dollar crash be the final escape for *all* the mismanaged or management failure ? Trade deficit will increase again with higher POO. A sudden/unexpected, steep dollar-crash, could stop and reverse a lot of wrong sided systemic evolutions (debts). The recent dollar-rise is only 6 years of age and the previous decline took more than 10 years.The DGX-chart shows a SHS top pattern, still intact.The paradox of a contracting economy and rising crude prices, can't be explained on economical laws. The image of the automobile-free-sundays (europ) of the seventhies, are flashing from my memory hard disk. Pandagold (11/12/01; 02:06:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 65155) Belgian: Diamonds and gold Belgian: Thanks for your kind comments. Yes the Diamond trade is quite a good example. You can rest assured that gold also will NEVER lose its lustre - it's in very powerful hands - hands which really understand its crypton like power. And, its very pleasing to the eye of the beholder.Let everyone believing it to be a 'dog' remember the cliche - 'every dog has its day'. One day you will hear its bark. However, the bark could be a warning of something very sinister approaching. Grubstaker (11/12/01; 01:50:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 65154) PREMIUM OVER SPOT RATIO FOR GOLD BULLION It looks as though GOLD is inching it's way into a new pricing scheme. Premium over spot is generally equated with demand? Today's premium price is equivilent to the early nineties when gold was $325 - $400 oz. The last one ouncers I purchased this spring were between $6-$9 an ounce over spot!! In terms of the ratio of price:spot the increase is roughly 100%. Why hasn't this been a topic for discussion here? Any feedback? Insights? part of the "new" GOLD pricing scheme mentioned by FOA/ANOTHER ?? Pandagold (11/12/01; 01:48:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 65153) Eagle One Eagle one Now if it was I that came to you, and I did ALL the talking, then how did you convince me you were a Bush agent? It must have been your body language, that similar insincere face, and shifty eyes - yes those eyes - the mirror to the soul.At least, give me credit, I didn't judge you immediately on first impression (which I should, and so easily could as those tell tale signs NEVER lie). You say I stayed 45 mins. That was enough time to prove my first impressions were wrong.Alas, as I said, those tell tale signs that nature has given which allow us to detect danger, they are NEVER wrong, you obviously convinced me of that.There was a title, sir, you missed in front of your self ordained 'credits' - QUACK. Belgian (11/12/01; 01:35:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 65152) @ Panda le Gold Sir,Your insights are brilliant. And not only, because, I fully agree with 90% of the content. Lots of very particular details, give evidence of you, being armered with plenty of analystic capacities. But don't fall in the trap of going into paranoia (?) overdrive. Hollywood does exist, but remain carefull on seeing it behind every corner.The financial brotherhood (fraternity) and its Gold-department is as a spiderweb. They are "always" net-winners at each and every finish. An example of positive manipulation is the diamont sector.Diamonts are -quasi- worthless (Bang !). But you / I and everyone else can't get them for free ! The valuation of diamonts has/is/ will remain managed for 3/4 of its price .Known and accepted by a firm majority, that doesn't need any evidence, anymore. That's why diamonds "must" be for ever ! Diamonds even survived their synthetic (zircon)rivals. De Beers has been taken private and paid for with the sale of Anglo American shares.The world wide diamond community is a mini-example of how (any) brotherhood can have and hold an iron/vanadium grip on something that is plenty available.Saw an educative documentary on 20 years of terrorism and ME policies by the USA. My main conclusion out of the series of atrocities (double sided), presented, was the following : The US (mostly the same leadership of oil diehards), has come (again) to a very critical point, where it has to make the very difficult choice of to "intervention" or not ? Further Confrontationand/or escalation for the sake of oil ?The US is on the look out for a reliable/semi-permanent Arab (islamist) partner ! A solid partner, used/abused, for the divide and rule strategy. The search for that partner is in process. Leaving the ME, equals, accepting a much higher POO ! All allies are artificially gathered around this POO given.The (old) oil-crusade has been renamed into the civilization clash with anti-terror sauce.Goldfan # 65137 : Thanks for the explicative post. If you allow me, I would like to react on it, later. Thanks. Netking (11/12/01; 00:18:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 65151) Arafat welcomes idea of New Zealand peacekeepers http://www.stuff.co.nz/inl/index/0,1008,1006653a11,FF.html Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat today welcomed an offer for New Zealand peacekeepers to contribute in the Middle East should a peace settlement be reached there, NZ Foreign Affairs Minister Phil Goff said. The Minister made the offer to Mr Arafat during a meeting between the two in New York. "Arafat welcomed that very enthusiastically, saying that he thought (with) our record in peace keeping and our even handed approach, New Zealand was well placed to make that contribution to an international cause." The Israeli party (including Peres) is due to meet NZ over the next week. ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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