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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 8/12/1999
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View Yesterday's Discussion.

The Stranger (8/12/99; 22:43:04MDT - Msg ID:11044)
Black Blade
Thanks, I hope you are okay, too.

The Stranger (8/12/99; 22:40:18MDT - Msg ID:11043)
cananami
Remercie pour les bons souhaits! I am afraid I don't know much more about the restoration of the Gold Clause. For the benefit of others in the room, however, I might just take a moment to reflect on its import.

I'll be brief.

For reasons that go beyond the scope of this post, sooner or later, paper "money", backed by nothing, is doomed to inflate. That is the definition of fractional reserve banking. Eventually, currencies which inflate beyond the rate of growth in real GDP, which lately describes the dollar BTW, create rising prices. By punishing savers and rewarding borrowers, rising prices encourage extravagance and make a mockery of thrift.

When the Gold Clause was a common feature of legal contracts in the United States, things were just the reverse. By its scarcity, gold is virtually impossible to inflate. Therefor, its inclusion in a contract rewarded thrift and made a mockery of extravagance.

Importantly, the recent successful court test of the restored Gold Clause represents juridical awknowledgement that gold is in fact money. But, if put back into common practice, it would also greatly inhibit the incentives for deficit spending at all levels of society. In short, it might amount to nothing less than a kind of defacto gold backing for the dollar.

So, amazingly, the Gold Clause has already been revived. All that remains is for people to begin using it again. Perhaps that will happen the next time prices start rising (which, in this writer's opinion, is right now). We shall see. But anyone who wishes to do so can use it today.

beesting (8/12/99; 22:29:53MDT - Msg ID:11042)
CONFISCATION!!!
Wife would you bring the soapbox over here please.....Thank You.
Ahem.....:

First let me give Websters definition of confiscate---appropriated by the Government!
A fancy word for Taxation!! Lets see what's already going on in the U.S.,but change the word taxation to confiscation.
The people no longer"own"their houses or land because they have to pay property confiscation on it,or lose it to Government.I know of several retired people on fixed incomes in my area who had to sell because of higher property confiscation.
In most states there is already in place,a sales confiscation,on most items including Gold coins if you refuse to pay it you can't buy the item.
Recently learned on this forum,England has a 17% VAT(value added confiscation) on all Gold tranactions.I understand this to mean,if I sell a Gold coin to a coin shop for say $100, I pay an additional $17.00 in confiscation fees.When the coin shop owner sells the same coin to a buyer, 17% of the selling price is payed to the Government.
Gold mines are already paying confiscation fees on profits. It would be very easy for governments worldwide to raise confiscation fees in a varity of ways to Gold miners.Right now there are records of ALL Gold paper tranactions for confiscation purposes.
Now,lets get to owners of Gold,you and me.
If the price of Gold skyrockets above a certain point Governments may require Gold and coin shops to make records of all Gold transactions similar to hand gun transactions being enforced right now. Then any time you buy or sell your Gold to a dealer the Government has a record.
At that point it would be very easy for Governments to charge some kind of ownership fee for your Gold.In my area everything larger than a refrigerator has to have a license,including pets. If the price of Gold is high it could be an annual fee.If the price of Gold is $30,000 per ounce it could be a monthly fee.
So,look at it from the Governments viewpoint at this time;
If Government can tax...errr confiscate at an annual rate of 5% to 10% of all known Gold in private hands,and confiscate(sales tax) on all known transactions....I'll leave the rest up to your imagination!



I believe this is what ANOTHER/FOA are trying to tell us,is the end result of $30,000 per ounce Gold.

Kick....Kick....Wife stop kicking the soap box....Kick....kick....crash....OWWWWWWW.......beesting

SteveH (8/12/99; 21:12:39MDT - Msg ID:11041)
Golden T.
So, armed with you knowledge that GS bought physical, what happens now? Is this to honor a gold contract to the Saudi's? They are now buying in the open for all to see? What next?

Also, regarding FOA's last night post of clarification, the key element, imo, was the part about the party buying the deliverable gold from the BB with oil money. That would be the oil country(ies). They are buying the right of physical delivery. Now the question is, how much gold have they accumulated? Let's assume that the accumulations have been since 1978 (the ratification of the Jamaica Accords). Let's further assume 2500 tons of production per year and they gold 1/5th of it. That makes 21 years times 500 tons. That gives them 11,500 tons (seems to fall within the realm of what the estimated current short position of gold is in the marketplace!) Interesting, eh?

Tyler Rose (8/12/99; 21:03:22MDT - Msg ID:11040)
SteveH & GS
Investment bank Goldman Sachs and Co. said on Thursday that its recent stockpiling of
gold through the New York gold futures exchange did not reflect any unusual activity for the firm.
"Goldman Sachs is one of the largest and most active participants in the market and this is all within the normal course of
business," a spokeswoman for the firm told Reuters.

I can not believe that GS would claim that this was "business as usual". Before August Gold delivery from COMEX, the usual open interest on the last trading day of one of the major months for trading gold has generally been less than 100 contracts. Most of the time around 25 to 50 contracts. Now we find that they take almost 5000 contracts? Something is definitely up, and it should happen soon. IMHO. TR

Golden Truth (8/12/99; 21:02:01MDT - Msg ID:11039)
TO ANDREW THE KIWI AGAIN!
Yes a sudden rise in GOLD would put pressure on the futures and options market, but kind sir i would be leaping for Joy and would not want to close out my positions or "contracts" because i bought "CALLS".
I,am more worried about a market meltdown and not being able to collect on my profits.

Golden Truth (8/12/99; 20:52:41MDT - Msg ID:11038)
TO ANDREW THE KIWI
I think you missed the meaning of my message. I looked at all possibilities and never did i say they bought "Put Options" because they thought the price was going up.
As i write this to you i've discovered more info on this purchase by Goldman Sachs and it now sounds like they purchased physical GOLD. 14m.t worth of it, if true they have gone long.
Has the B.O.E sale soured?? I've not heard and if not then going long has got to be good for us? Or will they dump the GOLD to drive down the price themselves?
My last post was to help explain to "Steveh" what Dec GOLD meant in the context he asked about it. That being contracts or in the form of contracts.
Sorry if i've confused you that was not the intent.
G.T

andrew the kiwi (8/12/99; 20:24:16MDT - Msg ID:11037)
Golden Truth
I was going through your rationale on puts and calls, if goldman sachs believes Dec gold to rise, why purchase puts and find their positions expire worthless on 12 Nov?

If the price of AU did take off relatively quickly, would this not place immense pressure on the futures/options markets? could you indeed close out of your contract(s)if liquidity dried up?


Tyler Rose (8/12/99; 19:15:37MDT - Msg ID:11036)
Test
Test

Black Blade (8/12/99; 19:14:15MDT - Msg ID:11035)
Sct, ET, Goldspoon, Stranger
Scot, You are right about being a representative republic vs. Democracy. I've always got confused when the politicians talk of the US as a democracy or about the western democracies. I sometimes wonder if the US politicians have ever even read the constitution of the US or even know what is in it. They seem to have total disregard for the constitution and the Bill of Rights anyway, so it shouldn't really surprise me.

ET, The handle "Black Blade" is the result of 2 books with the same name. The first is "The Black Blade" by Matthew Ballotti. It's a tale of good vs. Evil where the holder of a black sword called Black Blade is controlled by the sword and not his own will. Sort of like the hold gold has on some, and it has a medieval feel to it sort of like the Knights and ladies of this Round Table. The second book is "Black Blade" by Eric Van Lustbader. It is a tale about a secret society in Japan called the Black Blade Society whose motivation is world domination. It is filled with political inspired murder, plans for political and economic chaos, etc. It falls in line with conspiracies and such.

Goldspoon, I don't have much time to get into platinum now, but I will later on. Platinum, also known as the rich mans gold is just as rare. There is an interesting background to this metal. It has the same kicker as silver where it is both a precious and industrial metal which provides some downward price protection. I have some platinum and Stillwater Mining stock, but my focus is in gold and silver. Interesting subject though.

Stranger, I'm glad your OK. If the tornado hit the Salt Palace, then The Dead Goat Saloon may have been hit. Oh no! Take care.


Golden Truth (8/12/99; 19:07:06MDT - Msg ID:11034)
WHAT IS DEC GOLD?*******STEVEH.
Dec Gold is the terminolgy used to describe "buying options on the futres market" The options for Dec GOLD expire on the second friday the month prior, which would be in Nov12/99.
I also bought 5 contracts of Dec GOLD. One contract equals 100oz's of GOLD, so i,am leveraging 500oz's of GOLD.
To understand how options work and how this ties in with Goldman Sachs.I bought a Dec GOLD "call" at $390.00,in other words GOLD will have to hit $390 before i,am "at the money". Now once the P.O.G hits $390 and every dollar it increases past $390 say for example $391. I make $500 because i've leveraged 500oz's. So if GOLD hits its old high of $875-390 equals $485 in price differential,i would collect $485 times 500oz's which would be $242,500 dollars.
I've put my sell in at $900 which can be changed up or down between now and the second friday in Nov.
I paid 30cents per contract "times" 100oz's per contract equals $30 dollars per contract, "times" 5 contracts is $150 dollars. I also had to pay $20 dollars per contract in commission, so the total cost me $250.
Now what i think Goldman Sachs is doing is also betting on the P.O.G. In this case because of all the funky things that are going on i think they are betting on a price jump!!
What i don't know is how much of a jump, but i think they know!
Why this is very important in options is the simple fact that it allows you to be in the money sooner.
Also i bought "deep out of the money" because it's cheaper who would think Gold would hit $390 by Nov.
So if goldman sachs knows GOLD will hit $375 and they bought Dec Gold at say $300 they make alot of money.
Now after some deep thought they might be getting ready for the B.O.E's 3rd gold sale on Nov21/99.?
Recall that the B.O.E GOLD is every 2nd Month, but that doesn't make any sense? because the Dec GOLD contracts expire in Nov12/99. The B.O.E sale isn't until the 21st of Nov so unless they move the sale to before the 12th of Nov their options expire worthless which i doubt, not when you are leveraging over $120,000,000 million dollars worth of GOLD.

So this makes me now think that they are getting into position ahead of Next months GOLD sale(sep21/99) by the B.O.E. The sale has not been called off and i say they now bought "put options" and leaked info our let it slip out that they did. This is a smoke screen to make people think the P.O.G will or might go up and take the heat off of them.

Also if it ever got out that they bought this many "put options' the P.O.G would drop and that would not be good for the B.O.E GOLD sale, correct?
The thing to discover here is did they buy "puts" or "calls" and you'll know which way the price is going,because they do!

So i say, logically they bought "PUTS" unless the B.O.E GOLD sale is cancelled,which i have not heard it is and Due to the volume Goldman Sachs purchased it might be? Yet until i hear that it is. They bought "Put options".
The smoke screen they've put up encourages speculators to take the other side and buy "Call" options, this makes it seem that every thing is on the up and up when in the end they are the ones who are up.

My thinking also makes more sense when compared against "ANOTHER's" thinking that the GOLD market will implode from a low dollar price.
Like i've said before they will profit all the way down because "Thats what they do for a Living"
You can also see F.O.A's meaning on how not even one Oz of Physical GOLD was actually bought or sold.
That is why i,am into 100% GOLD coins.
Got implosion proof money? GOLD the real stuff.
G.T

P.S Imagine if word got out that Goldman bought "put" options that would Kill the paper price of GOLD before the GOLD auction to say $200,now what paper price would would the B.O.E say they got and what would the price drop to after the sale $150. You see they have to drag this out for as long as possible or we could see "implosion" at $150 by Oct/99. Plus who would really believe nothing was wrong at that price, heck a dinner with wine for only 2 at a nice restaurant costs that much? GOLD will become much to attractive at that price to not buy it.
Only for everyone to discover there is none available.
People will then lose confidence in the U.S dollar and it's all over but the Cry,in.
What a day that will be "The Day The Dollar Died" Amen.



jinx44 (8/12/99; 18:13:44MDT - Msg ID:11033)
canamami
e-gold is a storage facility. That way they get around the banking laws. They only store and transfer commodities while charging a fraction of the value of the commodity. It is banking without the hassles of regulation.

canamami (8/12/99; 17:58:45MDT - Msg ID:11032)
Correction, upcoming replies, and Godspeed to the (safe) Stranger
Hello everyone,

I will reply to the replies to my post considering the US Constitution, and the "old American rules", hopefully this weekend (lots of work at the office again). I wished to make one correction to my post. I referred to an Article 14, Section 4 concerning the different treatment accorded Union and Confederate debt. Of course, I meant to refer to section 4 of the 14th Amendment.

Stranger, I'm very pleased to hear you are well. The Salt Lake City tornado has received coverage here also. I would be very interested in learning more about Congress' legalizing (once again) transactions denominated in gold. I was wondering how an entity like e-Gold could operate if it were illegal to denominate transactions in gold, and also why such a rule would not have been challenged in the Courts by now. I believe you provided an explanation to some of these questions. I believe gold's long-term future is enhanced if the man in the street begins to directly perceive gold as money again. Consequently, I believe groups like GATA should perhaps agitate for countries to once again use gold coins, at least in part, for the larger denominations - e.g., $100, $500, etc. This creates demand for gold, gives the governments and CB's who would otherwise be inclined to dump gold (e.g., Canada) something to with gold other than price suppression, gives the man in the street ready access to gold currency, and recreates the mental association "gold = money" for those who might otherwise forget gold is money.

Au revoir a tous. A plus tard,
canamami.

The Stranger (8/12/99; 17:06:02MDT - Msg ID:11031)
Leigh
Thanks for inquiring. Yes, I am fine. The tornado didn't get me. And, to think, when all heck broke loose, I had been sitting here wondering about CoBra(too) in Vienna, with his solar eclipse, and why nothing exciting ever happens in the sky around here. But, except for a scary hailstorm, my neighborhood was spared. Thank goodness.

Aristotle (8/12/99; 16:55:36MDT - Msg ID:11030)
Uh-oh...
Turbohawg (and all), having seen your reply I'm afraid my post had the wrong effect. I sure don't want everyone to feel so relaxed and comfortable with their Gold postions that they don't feel the need or desire to talk about them. That would take all the fun out of eavesdropping from the shadows. We should continue to discuss it like any couple of neighbors might discuss the local college football team, or politics, or whatever. The point I was trying to make was that with Gold in hand, there is no need for anyone to get stressed about daily fluctuations, and ultimately be driven ballistic like that day-trading psycho in Atlanta. As should be abundantly evident by the host of good posts found here in the past, Gold-holders are on the winning side of anything the future can throw at them. Use that knowledge to relax and enjoy everything else life has to offer...including a certain satisfaction of knowing you are one step ahead of the sheeple.

If Y2K has got anyone overly stressed, by all means make contingency plans and preparations. There is nothing like having a well-stocked kitchen or pantry to take the edge off your immediate unease. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to learn that the people who acted the earliest and "prepared" the most are now the ones who are starting to doubt whether it will be a significant event at all, adopting a blase' attitude and second-guessing themselves--simply because they have reached a level of peace-of-mind that comes with taking active steps to confront the monster under the bed.

Same deal with Gold. Whatever it was that originally drove people to buy Gold, those conditions haven't abated. It is only their mindset that probably calmed to a degree that they might actually question the prudence of their decision. I'm sure that had these same people stayed OUT of Gold and kept their original financial positions, their anxiety would be so high right now they probably couldn't sleep at night. Use this to your advantage and enjoy your peace-of-mind in these uncertain financial times. The only way to get into a decent Gold position is early. I don't think there is any such notion as TOO early, because whatever negative consequences you could possibly imagine came about by being "too" early will in all likelihood be outmatched a thousandfold by being too late. I guess I am a bit of a subscriber to the "lightning in the night" scenario. Either you won't be able to exit your stocks before the mother-of-all-selloffs occurs, or else you won't be able to successfully bring about Gold delivery before that system locks up. Or both.

If anyone finds themselves in need of a reassuring reality-check, just try to answer this question to your own satisfaction: "What EXACTLY is a Dollar?"

If you find out, let me know, too.

Gold. Don't work for anything less. ---Aristotle

PS. Lookin' good, Tomcat! The best part of the eventual Gold price reversal is that, although the paydays won't be as heavy as before, the lighter wages will be more than offset by the growing value of the accumulated Gold savings --providing well for any future needs as a good money should. The currently skewed position of Gold in the economic Universe right now makes Gold not only the ultimate money, but also the ultimate investment to increase in REAL value against real things when the paper system goes bust in one fashion or another.

Speaking of "another," Hi guys! FOA, I enjoyed the way you characterized ANOTHER's suggestion by saying that each person should position themselves in Gold only in accordance with their own degree of finding truth and comprehension in the situation being presented. Bigger steps of departure from the conventional wisdom of holding the US Dollar requires a commensurate level of "world perspective" or else the person will surely succeed only in bringing about his own misery, ever chasing the dollar-denominated paper-profit at the end of the day, with no Gold when it is needed most. It is better to have a small percentage of current wealth in Gold bullion than to have 100% of wealth in a paper derivative of Gold.

This P.S. got a bit long. I guess I signed off a bit prematurely. And so much for quietly lurking, huh?

ET (8/12/99; 16:46:33MDT - Msg ID:11029)
Black Blade

Hey BB - great handle! How'd you come up with Black Blade or should I even ask?

I'm with The Scot here on this issue. Y2k is not going to be a walk in the park. You've got a financial system on the verge of collapse to go along with it. This is going to be survival of the fittest as far as living standards go. Those in power, if recent history is any valid guide, will attempt to stay in power. That likely means grabbing whatever money exists using any excuse they can up with.

Amendment V

"No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a Grand Jury, except in cases arising in the land or naval forces, or in the Militia, when in actual service in time of War or public danger; nor shall any person be subject for the same offence to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb, nor shall be compeled in any criminal case to be witness against himself, nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use without just compensation."

I suppose my problem here is the 'just compensation' clause. Do you suppose goldholders or mine owners will be given a choice as to whether the King's money is acceptable for payment? The fifth amendment does a decent job of protecting everything except money. Without a protection for the value of money it renders the last clause useless.

Thanks for your response BB.

ET


SteveH (8/12/99; 16:05:56MDT - Msg ID:11028)
GS
www.gold-eagle.com
Interview by Alec Hogg with Clive Roffey (Gold Analyst)
(3GFL) Aug 12, 16:26

Interview with CLIVE ROFFEY - Thursday, 12 August 1999

ALEC: Clive Roffey, our gold specialist is with us now. Clive, a little while ago we chatted, you had a very good idea or so it appeared at the time, that interest rates on the bullion that was being lent by the central banks, should be raised. It's happened - is this the reason why we've seen the gold price pick up?
CLIVE ROFFEY: Pretty much yes. I think we've got a double whammy as the United States guys would say at the present moment. The ?? and the lease rate - that's the rate at which the hedge funds borrow bullion and have to pay for it. That's gone up from about 1,50% on an overall basis to around about 4, 4,50%. Now that makes for the borrowing of bullion not a particularly good play at this point in time.

ALEC: Why would it have changed so quickly?

CLIVE ROFFEY: I don't know. I think probably it's because of the interest rates, particularly in the States, the bond rates moving up, interest rates appear to be moving up in Europe and I think that's one of the main reasons. I'm not awfully concerned why, but what has happened is that the people who wanted to borrow bullion are now thinking twice about doing it, and then what happens on the other side where the hedge funds have opened positions, and they now have to close out those positions or alternatively, decide to roll them over. So obviously, you've got a reduction in selling pressure and you've got an increase in buying pressure, so effectively we've got a double whammy in the gold market. What I find interesting is that it's so fantastic to find that there's a sudden change in the fundamentals literally over a couple of weeks.

ALEC: But why hasn't the gold price moved up more sharply then? We always hear, or we've been hearing for months now that the reason why gold has been under pressure is the short sellers?

CLIVE ROFFEY: Correct, but the point is, those short sellers are still holding positions. They haven't yet really started to close them out. Over the last couple of days, certainly, we've seen some fund buying, bullion funds buying back in again. That has not yet really gained momentum, and I think if the gold price continues it's movement and goes through 262 to 263, I think you will suddenly start to see these funds panicking and we should see a surge in bullion from that.

ALEC: So I guess that's what the shares on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange are telling us, because they're certainly running way ahead of the gold price in rands or even in US dollars?

CLIVE ROFFEY: It's been a basic philosophy of mine for probably 25, 30 years - if the shares lead bullion, forget about what the bullion price is doing, watch what the shares are doing and I think there's no doubt about it, the shares are clearly telling you, bullion is based out and the shares want to have a run, and we've certainly seen that. What is it - 35% in three or four weeks?

ALEC: 35% since the 15th July - I know, because I looked at the figures just the other day. Are you expecting that this can continue?

CLIVE ROFFEY: Absolutely. In technical terms, bullion has formed what we call a fulcrum base. It's a lovely base formation and usually out of that, we get what we call a catapult which is a fairly explosive move, so I'm not looking at this as a short term flash in the pan situation. I'm looking at this as a sustainable situation which can probably last for at least a couple of months.

ALEC: And how far could the index go?

CLIVE ROFFEY: I would say another 30, 40% comfortably.

ALEC: Clive Roffey, gold guru, gold specialist, bringing us up to date there on his views on the gold market, and he scored it right on that whole issue about the central banks lending gold to the short sellers now that they're being squeezed out of that market - just watch that gold price go.



[BACK TO MONEYWEB]



SteveH (8/12/99; 16:01:34MDT - Msg ID:11027)
GS
www.gold-eagle.com
NO COMMENT
(Atahualpa) Aug 12, 17:57

NEW YORK, Aug 12 (Reuters) - Investment bank Goldman Sachs and Co. said on Thursday that its recent stockpiling of gold through the New York gold futures exchange did not reflect any unusual activity for the firm.
"Goldman Sachs is one of the largest and most active participants in the market and this is all within the normal course of business," a spokeswoman for the firm told Reuters. "We are seeing very strong demand for physical metal."
According to figures available to the public from the COMEX, a division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the firm has apparently amassed about 15 tonnes of gold in August, owning half the gold stocks in exchange warehouses, while the troubled gold market gossips about the ramifications.
Goldman, which trades through its commodities arm J. Aron and Co., has so far this month committed to take about 95 percent of the metal offered by other players for physical delivery against short futures positions.
Of the 4,955 100-ounce COMEX contracts to be delivered as of August 12, the investment bank will receive gold from 4,735 contracts.
This amounts to 473,500 troy ounces of bullion -- 14.7 metric tonnes -- or about 50 percent of the 948,973 ounces now held in COMEX warehouses.
"That is what you call accumulation," said Don Tierney, of Pell Brothers Trading.
"That has obviously helped the market up and also put the strength in the nearby (futures contracts)," he said. "They have taken a long position and they now own half of the gold in the COMEX bank. This isn't short covering."
Bearishness about gold prices has dissipated somewhat in recent days.
On Thursday gold prices reached their highest levels since July 6, when an auction of 25 tonnes of gold from the Bank of England's reserves sent gold prices down to 20 years lows.
Bullion prices bottomed at $252.20 per ounce on July 20, their lowest level since mid May 1979, but since then short covering by speculators, and talk about Goldman's purchases has helped prices recover.
The December COMEX gold futures contract bottomed at $255.60 on on July 21.
December gold ended at $263.00 an ounce on Thursday, up $1.50.
"These scares about delivery versus warehouse stocks very rarely amount to anything because it's not that difficult to replace them, I'm talking about all commodities," said John Brimelow, a mining equity analyst at Donald and Co.
"As far as a literal shortage of metal in the world, I don't think it's terribly significant," he said, adding "It may be a sign, in that Goldman suddenly started making bullish noises about a week ago."



ET (8/12/99; 15:43:35MDT - Msg ID:11026)
Goldspoon - IEEE and y2k
http://www.ieeeusa.org/FORUM/POLICY/99june09.html

Hey Goldspoon - welcome to the forum. The above link is the letter to Congress. Everyone should take a look at this. It's a no nonsense explanation of the problem.

Since your experience is in the chemical industry, what specific problems do you think are likely. Will many of these facilities need to be shutdown to prevent possible catastrophic failures? Thanks for your input.

ET


TownCrier (8/12/99; 15:33:51MDT - Msg ID:11025)
The Gilded Opinion Index
http://www.usagold.com/thegildedopinion.html
Many pages of golden GOLD commentary...just in case you weren't aware of this room, four doors down the hall on the left. Or is it the right? I dunno, my torch blew out. Just click the link, it's an easier way to travel.

SteveH (8/12/99; 15:25:18MDT - Msg ID:11024)
$263.30
What is Dec. gold?

Does anyone have any thoughts as to the stragtegy of GS buying so many contracts? What is the game?

TownCrier (8/12/99; 15:23:17MDT - Msg ID:11023)
After the Close...The GOLDEN VIEW from the Tower
More and more gold is showing itself as "THE place to be" to a skeptical world as the spot price in New York trading closed above firmly above $260 at $260.50 after steadily rising prices throughout the week on world markets. Meanwhile, the stock markets remained sickly, the DOW finishing up an anemic 19 with decliners edging out advancers on the broader market. The Nasdaq resumed its slide, ending down more than half a percent with a loss of 15.49 points.

Following a disappointing showing for the 30-year bond's auction, Treasury issues stumbled with yields reaching 22-month highs as the bellwether's yield rose to a high of 6.27 percent after losing 23/32 in price, topping the previous high of 6.26 percent set on Tuesday. The $10.0 billion auction of long bonds was awarded at a high yield of 6.144 percent, higher than expected --which is indicative of less aggressive bidding. Despite elimination of the November bond sale, "The 30-year auction was the worst of the three," summarized a trader quoted by the newswires. Today the 30-year bond lost 19/32 from yesterday's small recovery, and the yield rose to 6.26 percent. The last time the long bond closed above a 6.26 percent yield was in October 1997.

Bridge News had this review of the gold market action in New York trading today:
NY Precious Metals Review: Dec gold up $1.5 after 6-week high
By Tina Petersen, Bridge News
Washington--Aug 12--COMEX Dec gold settled up $1.50 at $263 per ounce
after jumping to a 6-week high of $263.5. Fund short covering, coupled
with higher lease rates, nudged prices higher, traders said. A few said
they expect prices to move to $268 by next week.

Traders said lease rates of 3-4% are lending support for the market.
"Prices have been depressed for a long time, and with the market this
short, people are rethinking their positions," said a trader. "The funds
that have short positions are getting a little nervous. This makes the
market susceptible to a rally."

A few said they expect prices to break through $264.5 Friday or early
next week then push through $268 later in the week. "I am still guardedly
bullish," said a player.

One trader said he was surprised with the lack of follow-through from
today's short covering rally. "There's a lot of good physical demand, but
continuous attempts to move up always fail," he said.
Another trader said there's been a lot of physical buying in the
Middle East and India, but noted that players remain cautious ahead of the
UK Bank of England's next gold auction, set for Sep 21. ***
(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:
http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtml
No further reproduction without written permission from FWN.

COMEX gold warehouses were quiet today, giving the bookies a chance to sweep their "showroom floor," where the gold is largely there for advertisement purposes only.

Reuters reports a contuning trend of short covering at the close of trade in London, quoting one dealer as saything the gold market "has been short for a long time now, so it might take some time to convince them (funds) that long is the way to be." ..... Seems like a classic case of old dogs and new tricks.

Out of Moscow today we learn that the US$200 million fall last week in the foreign exchange and gold reserves of the Central Bank of Russia was mainly due to CBR intervention to support the ruble against the dollar. Here we must recall a report yesterday from the CBR that affirmed it was not the gold portion of the reserves it was selling. Additionally in today's news, a CBR spokesman said the drop was only partly due to intervention, declining to say what else caused the fall. Here in the Tower we think it might simply be a wise dishoarding of paper. We've already "been there, done that." Just check out the yellow glow eminating from the Tower's foundation.

Also in today's news from overseas, Tokyo Commodity Exchange gold futures soared on the strong overnight COMEX and the US dollar/yen's firmness. Dealers said that some speculators reversed positions from short to long following the price rally, while spot gold continued to test the resistance of US $260 per ounce. On the TOCOM, dealers said profit-taking prevented prices from rising above that level. While that may in fact be the case, here in the Tower we would always question that choice of words, "profit-taking," where gold is concerned. We think a more apt expression would be "paper taking." With that we leave you to your own thoughts.

That's the view from here...after the close.

Golden Truth (8/12/99; 15:21:05MDT - Msg ID:11022)
THE SCOTTS GOLD.
Come on up to Canada if that kind of nonsense ever happens.
I'll show you how the ropes work up here and the sights.
In the mean time enjoy your new GOLD coins you purchased and don't let anyone try and steal your JOY.
When the time comes everyone else will be wishing they would of bought the real GOLD,believe it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Goldspoon (8/12/99; 15:10:10MDT - Msg ID:11021)
Y2K !!!!!!!
If ya want to know about Y2k i can tell you about it...

I used to be the computer hardware, then promoted to software, then my present job is in management, of a major chemical company.... If you want to know the truth, you can't handle the truth (Jack Nicklson movie). Then read the IEEE's comments in the senate hearings on the need for Y2K law suit exemptions..... That is as close to the truth of the matter as i've seen.. For those of you who don't know who IEEE is, they are the oldest, largest, group of computer engineers and scientists in the world. When they speak people should listen... what they said ain't pretty.... You need to learn what the legal difference between the terms Y2K READY and Y2K COMPLIANT are... and notice which of the two terms companys are using.... Remember; "Japaneese dortors NEVER tell you that you are terminal" and LBJ told the CIA not to bring me bad news about the war... he would pitch a fit every time they did, They soon learned to bring him news spinned in a good way and left off the bad....because that is what HE asked for!!! CEO's are in the same mode (plausable deniability).... READ the testimony and you'll get what i mean..... Oh, take delivery of physical gold. Don't accept paper gold, you'll thank me later..... (sorry i don't have the link for this, if i find it again i'll post it)

Goldspoon (8/12/99; 14:41:04MDT - Msg ID:11020)
Gold $268 by next week!!!!!
http://www.marketcenter.com/news/news.cgi?story=19990812-151104
whada ya think???

Platinum?? anybody here ever hear of the stuff????
Never see anyone ever post any thoughts......

TownCrier (8/12/99; 14:10:55MDT - Msg ID:11019)
US debt futures end mixed amid chaotic early close
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990812/4z.html
30-yr Bond auction described as disappointing, while a Y2K-esque power outage in the Chicago area forced a scramble to shut down trade early.

TownCrier (8/12/99; 13:51:02MDT - Msg ID:11018)
Shielding Your Portfolio From Y2K
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/1999/08/10/BU34410.DTL&type=tech_article
Notice how the primary "advice" of these institutional advisors is NOT to sell your stocks (Heaven forbid!), but instead to offset a percentage of the potential losses by means of additional paper trading...put options. Man, these brokers can't lose; they get your business all the way to the poor house.

TownCrier (8/12/99; 13:36:47MDT - Msg ID:11017)
Y2K Still Likely To Spark Recession
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/19990811/tc/yk_global_2.html
Edward Yardeni says while he hopes for the best, it would be a big mistake to plan for the best. Suggests that the global just-in-time manufacturing system could bring about a recession from weak links in the supply chain.

TownCrier (8/12/99; 13:30:32MDT - Msg ID:11016)
The ECB, cash, and Y2K
http://www.businesstoday.com/techpages/y2kecb08111999.htm
Euro banking sector faces essentially the same worries as the U.S. regarding depositor withdrawing funds. Which system will produce the most successful contingency plan?

TownCrier (8/12/99; 13:24:27MDT - Msg ID:11015)
Survey: 75% of U.S. companies have already had Y2K failures
http://www.computerworld.com/home/news.nsf/all/9908113cap
Among the Y2K failures that have occurred, 92% involved financial miscalculations or losses, and 84% caused processing disruptions.

Not exactly comforting after the many reminders here at the Round Table that most of our currency exists as a ledger entry on a banking system database.

TownCrier (8/12/99; 13:05:22MDT - Msg ID:11014)
A damning environmental report threatens mine closure in Papua New Guinea
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990812/hp.html
Just because there is gold in the ground doesn't mean it will end up in your hand.

Save the algae!

The Scot (8/12/99; 12:35:43MDT - Msg ID:11013)
BLACK BLADE # 11004
Black Blade, I can't argue with your logic, the point I was trying to make is: If the economy of the US changes as much as I understand Another/FOA are trying to visualize, IMHO this will be an economic turmoil like the USA has never experienced before (including the great depression of the 30's). Under this stress, any government is capable of doing anything.
I respect your thoughts on this matter, Sincerely, The Scot

The Scot (8/12/99; 12:27:59MDT - Msg ID:11012)
KOAN #11003
Koan, I respect your views and admire your feelings for Democracy; However, please remember, the USA was never intented to be a democracy. The USA is a Republic. democracy is rule by majority (good or bad). Imagine patients at an insane asylum being allowed to elect a new warden. A republic is quite different. Please don't take offence, I'm not trying to argue with you but have seen how governments operate all over the world. They are a necessary evil for people to co-exist in society. Governments need to be guarded very carefully...Thank you for your response.
Sincerely, The Scot

goldfinger (8/12/99; 12:17:21MDT - Msg ID:11011)
KJS' url message # 10998
"When will the bubble burst?" by george reisman is a MUST READ. Also Reisman's book, Capitalism, A Treatise on Economics is a MUST BUY!

Tomcat (8/12/99; 12:02:36MDT - Msg ID:11010)
18KARAT
http://www.investech.com/
This graph seems to be a stunning validaton of A/FOA's view of the flight from the dollar.

I agree that a part of the story is due to Japan's carry trade unwinding.

But there are so many other countries with whom the US has a deficit. Where are their extra dollars going? To the Euro? Gold?

Goldspoon (8/12/99; 11:55:47MDT - Msg ID:11009)
Gold Cartel
With mines about to close or already closed. Seems to me that South Africa, Canada, ect. would merely try to buy the remaining spot physical gold. Control enough physical gold and name your price. It seems to me this would be a better strategy than paying unemployment or welfare in those countries. If you think about it it would also help create jobs in the gold producing countries.... The arabs did it with oil, come on guys get smart and do it with gold!!!! There is enough paper fiat gold arround created by the exchanges, just like the fractional reserve banking did with currency that if you tie up enough of the physical stuff it would be like calling a poker hand.... when the cards are laid down those holding the physical stuff would beat any other hand. If you think about it, it would be a good time for the arabs or any one else with a ax to grind and to cause havoc in the world currencies to try this. the fruit is ripe for the pickin, I'd be surprized if someone doesn't try to take a bite.....(What do you think???)

Peter Asher (8/12/99; 11:22:38MDT - Msg ID:11008)
Developing Backwardation
Oct. gold is now trading .2 to .3 above Dec.

Black Blade (8/12/99; 11:06:25MDT - Msg ID:11007)
(No Subject)
Sorry about the double post. Bad satellite link.

Black Blade (8/12/99; 11:04:30MDT - Msg ID:11006)
Seizures???
Scot, ET, I think that AEL and Koan make several valid points. I will not delve into those too much. First the problem with confiscation of mines would be extremely difficult as per the 5th amendment to the constitution of the US. In 1933 gold had a dollar value of $35/ounce and after the confiscation of physical gold, the USD was supposedly backed by gold. Granted the dollar was devalued in relation to gold, but to do the same with mines would be a difficult maneuver since compensation would have to be determined on an asset with a constantly changing value (i.e. addition and deletion of reserves, cost structure, land positions, privately held land, etc.). Numismatic gold coin was exempt under the 1933 gold confiscation for similar reasons in that a USD value was difficult to determine as per the 5th amendment. Even under the 1933 gold confiscation, mining companies were not deprived of their assets. Gold was sold at the prevailing rate which was $42/ounce after the USD devaluation. For example Homestake Mining (HM) was exempt from confiscation and still outperformed the market during this period. You could even make the argument that owning gold mining stock was safer than owning physical gold (other than numismatic or jewelry perhaps). Another problem would be that most mining companies are globally positioned and this would require a lot of collusion between governments. This would open up a whole can of worms as far as international laws are concerned. This is especially true when you consider that most mines in the US are controlled by companies outside the US. Any mine confiscation would likely only affect the US operations and would probably substantially increase the value of any foreign-held operations. US operations would likely close rather than operate under these conditions which would substantially increase the value of foreign-held mines. And as far as executive orders are concerned, the president would have to enter this act into the federal register and he would have six months to convince congress of his actions, after which they could either agree or disagree whether this constituted a national emergency. If congress disagreed, which is likely, then it would then be overturned. The greater risk would be another FDR style gold confiscation. There doesn't seem to be anything to gain for the US government to seize gold mines. I'm not sure if this is point that you were trying to get across but this is just my view on such a scenario.

18KARAT (8/12/99; 10:56:53MDT - Msg ID:11005)
To Goldspoon, Tomcat, FOA,

I'm pleased you all enjoyed that amazing chart. It stunned me too when I first saw it.

I think there are two major things contributing to it.

First the unwinding of the yen carry trade which has been underway since the yen rose in late 1998. Until then Japan had been banker to the world in general and USA, the world's biggest debtor, in particular.

Secondly, the fact that more and more smart money knows that the Wall St. bubble is about to burst and they are getting out of ALL their holdings of US securities in advance of a USD crash that is likely to follow.

Finally, note that the chart is really a graph of 12 months-to-date cumulative sales. The actual flow of capital must have gone negative some 6 months before to produce this cumulative chart - Say late 1998 - about the same time as the JPY shot up relative to USD.

Regards 18K


Black Blade (8/12/99; 10:52:39MDT - Msg ID:11004)
Mine Seizures???
Scot, ET, I think that AEL and Koan make several valid points. I will not delve into those too much. First the problem with confiscation of mines would be extremely difficult as per the 5th amendment to the constitution of the US. In 1933 gold had a dollar value of $35/ounce and after the confiscation of physical gold, the USD was supposedly backed by gold. Granted the dollar was devalued in relation to gold, but to do the same with mines would be a difficult maneuver since compensation would have to be determined on an asset with a constantly changing value (i.e. addition and deletion of reserves, cost structure, land positions, privately held land, etc.). Numismatic gold coin was exempt under the 1933 gold confiscation for similar reasons in that a USD value was difficult to determine as per the 5th amendment. Even under the 1933 gold confiscation, mining companies were not deprived of their assets. Gold was sold at the prevailing rate which was $42/ounce after the USD devaluation. For example Homestake Mining (HM) was exempt from confiscation and still outperformed the market during this period. You could even make the argument that owning gold mining stock was safer than owning physical gold (other than numismatic or jewelry perhaps). Another problem would be that most mining companies are globally positioned and this would require a lot of collusion between governments. This would open up a whole can of worms as far as international laws are concerned. This is especially true when you consider that most mines in the US are controlled by companies outside the US. Any mine confiscation would likely only affect the US operations and would probably substantially increase the value of any foreign-held operations. US operations would likely close rather than operate under these conditions which would substantially increase the value of foreign-held mines. And as far as executive orders are concerned, the president would have to enter this act into the federal register and he would have six months to convince congress of his actions, after which they could either agree or disagree whether this constituted a national emergency. If congress disagreed, which is likely, then it would then be overturned. The greater risk would be another FDR style gold confiscation. There doesn't seem to be anything to gain for the US government to seize gold mines. I'm not sure if this is point that you were trying to get across but this is just my view on such a scenario.

koan (08/12/99; 10:35:42MDT - Msg ID:11003)
nation of laws
The Scot, AEL, FOA, all: I do not like even going in this direction because I know it is futile to debate people on this subject. But let me say this much. There are imperfections in our democracies, but these imperfections are simply reflections of our own imperfections. In my opinion, the human speciecs and their representative governments are doing pretty good, and better all the time. It is odd that I am defending the governments because, to be honest, I find much of our laws to be rather primative. Our laws are necessary compromises. I am sure many out there have very different ideas than my own, but we have to live together, so we compromise. That compromising is what looks imperfect, but actually it is pretty good, if you look at what it represents. Think about all the issues where people are strongly divided, and each side just will not budge - well the compromis looks ugly to each side, but is actually a beautiful thing. Someone once said of democracy, it is the worst form of government except all others. I believe we will continue to muddle through, and I do not think anyone will confiscate anything - at least in the US.

TownCrier (08/12/99; 10:29:30MDT - Msg ID:11002)
Tea leaves -- IMM currency futures mixed in early trade
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990812/s5.html
Paper is only paper.
Only GOLD is "good as gold."

TownCrier (08/12/99; 10:24:37MDT - Msg ID:11001)
Columbia peso falls in midsession on downgrade
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990812/v5.html
Paper is only paper...

USAGOLD (08/12/99; 09:42:19MDT - Msg ID:11000)
Today's Gold Market Report
MARKET REPORT (8/12/99): Gold continued its climb this morning blowing through
the $260 barrier on continued concerns about the dollar and foreign capital exiting the U.S.
stock and bond markets. We first reported that there might be a change in U.S. dollar policy
several weeks ago when Larry Summers took the reins at the Treasury Department and cited
the large trade deficit as the nation's most pressing economic problem. The only way to
reduce the trade deficit is to encourage exports. The only way to encourage exports in the
short term is to drive the dollar lower. Summers has denied repeatedly that the long
standing strong dollar policy of the Clinton administration has been reversed, but those
denials might be in place to keep investors from exiting the equities markets, particularly the
sacrosanct bond market. Adding to the uncertainty, rumors circulated the markets yesterday
that Alan Greenspan might step down as Fed Chairman as early as after the upcoming
August 24 Open Market Committee meeting. T

With that as the backdrop, gold moved up strongly at mid-session yesterday with reports of
short covering and one rumor making the circuit that Goldman Sachs might attempt a gold
corner. We think that Goldman is simply reacting to one of their clients delivery
requirements thus the drawdowns at the COMEX warehouses. The idea of anyone
cornering the gold market is a little far-fetched at the moment though any large deliveries of
physical metal in such a thin market could have the effect of a corner, i.e. rapidly escalating
prices. We have reported consistently here that physical demand is extremely strong
worldwide and that investors are taking delivery of the metal. This more than any other
single factor will deflate the gold carry trade and its attendant large spec short position on
the COMEX and in the over-the-counter gold market. One cannot discount either the
watchful eye of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission -- a new element in the gold
market. Questions will be asked and explanations requested. This too could have a positive
effect on the overall pricing situation in the gold market since the huge short position has
been a major factor in keeping the price down in recent years.

Lease rates remain high. The London Bullion Market Association reports 14% increase in
daily gold turnover -- another sign of a very active market. In Asian trade, Bridge reports
strong speculator demand in Tokyo. London Reuters reports strong fund and trade house
buying driven by the rising lease rates. "With this fund buying, we will see the forwards
easing again which is good. A few banks were panicking with their five-year and
seven-year hedging agreements with producers,'' said one German dealer. One can see
how a short-covering rally with this huge overhang could cascade into a rapidly rising
market particularly in light of the tight physical supplies.

That's it for now. Have a good day, fellow goldmeisters.

Please call 800-869-5115 (Ask for Mary Conway) if you have an interest in receiving a trial
subscription to our widely read newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary and
Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Or you can go to our ORDER FORM and
submit your request by E-Mail. You will also receive our introductory packet on investing
in gold. Thank you for your interest.

susannah morgan (08/12/99; 09:36:04MDT - Msg ID:10999)
test
test

AEL (08/12/99; 09:17:56MDT - Msg ID:10998)
confiscation

Pertaining to the exchange (below, The Scot and ET) about gold
confiscation, herewith (immediately below) are FOA's comments from
last May on the subject -- part of my collection of clippings on
this subject.

I must say I am skeptical, like The Scot. Seems to me that governments do
whatever the [bleep] they feel like doing, within certain (modest) limits
imposed by prevailing sentiment and custom; e.g. governments in the 20th
century have felt no compunction about imprisoning and slaughtering large
groups of their own citizens (http://www2.hawaii.edu/~rummel/)

"We are a nation of laws" is increasingly, I fear, a meaningless
platitude. We are *technically* a nation of laws, of course; but the
implication of that remark is that we are also a nation of careful
checks and balances, due process, fair-minded deliberation, justice, and
truth, and this is (IMHO) obviously not the case any longer, if it ever
was.

-- AEL

-----------------------------------------------------------------

FOA (5/21/99; 11:50:51MDT - Msg ID:6572)

Further Comment

ALL: If you follow my logic in #6570, then you can also under stand why
the US can never call in gold from it's citizens again! As long as they
are using "dollars", the same dollars that were exchangeable into gold
in the 30s, they cannot replace it with gold. To reverse that decision
would open the American government up to lawsuits from local dollar
holders to return gold at 41 (or whatever price). If they again, called
in local gold, prior to re-backing the dollar, Everyone would demand,
first the exchange of gold at the old price, then they would send in
that gold! The Government would "Never" risk it!

Yes, they could call the dollar "dead" and issue a new gold backed
currency for "internal use". See my last post to understand why a new
currency would be unacceptable "externally". But, that money would not
function, as it could have no ties to outside transactions. Nothing
would be gained. As noted before, they would most likely encourage gold
holding by citizens while taxing the local gold industry and private
transactions. Still, a dyeing dollar will spell massive gold increases
in value for private bullion holders as this proceeds. FOA

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

FOA (5/21/99; 11:27:15MDT - Msg ID:6570)

Reply ------SteveH (5/20/99; 14:55:10MDT - Msg ID:6538)

FOA Question
What hold does the BIS have over USA gold?
What would happen if USA ignored hold or whatever claim has to USA gold?

-------------canamami (5/20/99; 15:03:38MDT - Msg ID:6540)
Further to SteveH's Question re US and BIS FOA,

Further to SteveH's question, at one point you said that the Europeans
could pull out of the IMF once the new financial/currency order is
established. What if the US simply pulled out of the BIS? Then the right
of the BIS to US gold at about $42.00 (which you once mentioned) no
longer exists. One negative result of the negative balance of trade is
thus eliminated. (Excuse me if my grasp of the currency settlement rules
is shaky, but this field of knowledge is new to me.)-----

Steve, Canamami,

I want to discuss both of your questions, but first read what someone
sent me from Mozel:

--------Date: Fri May 21 1999 04:35
mozel (@JP @What would your scenario be if you found out that USG has no
gold) ID#153110: to which to connect its paper legal tender ? Gold it
has in possession, but how much of it has clear title ? How much is due
BIS for claims ? How much is due other creditors that were seized from
in 1933 without due process of law ? Claims of perpetual entities never
go away. If USG exposes gold in its possession to settlement via its
currency, it exposes the gold to claims and process. International Law
outlaws 'R US ? Financial armageddon 'R our fate ?------------------

Right on target! It's the same reason we cannot go back to a gold backed
dollar, the old dollar never lost it's international contract as an
"exchange contract for gold" as in "the gold exchange standard". Read up
on the history of how the dollar came out of this.

Just because the US said, in 71 that it would not ship gold any more
does not mean the dollar isn't still a contract to represent it's old
international obligations. Every analysts makes comments like, "let them
sent their army if they want it", but that is simply not the way the
world works. It's cheating, fair and simple! Why didn't the US send out
all of it's gold at $41 to the ounce, then go off the system? As
Another say's, "think long and hard on that one"!

The entire international financial structure is based on procedure
protocols that are not binding, repeat, not binding, but without them,
the system will not work. If the BIS did not coordinate inter bank (CBs)
transfers the whole system would stop. Using the same "line of
reasoning", the US cannot just back it's currency with gold at say,
$10,000 and start all over again. What manner of "rules of engagement"
would prevent them from halting gold shipments again? "Come on", people
of the world are not that stupid!

No, the dollar would have to be totally destroyed, and a new currency,
sanctioned by the BIS, and most likely controlled by them, would have to
be created. The US will go down to the wire before that happens,
therefore, the Euro was created!

Canamami, The IMF is a function of the dollar reserve dynamic. If the
IMF did not the guarantee dollar debt of countries that could not pay,
it would start a chain reaction of dollar reserve destruction. When
dollar assets (debt) is no longer serviced (interest paid and debt
rolled over) it no longer can be carried on the books as the backing
for local currencies. Hence forth, all currencies that are based on this
system are "imploded". Now you see why the IMF does such "perceived
dumb" maneuvers, it's to maintain the dollar, not rebuild the foreign
economies.

When the BIS, ECB and the other major world economies are ready to drop
the dollar, they will stop supporting the IMF and pull out. The IMF
"needs" their support, they do not need the IMF. Likewise, if the US
ever disassociated itself with the BIS, they would simply stop all
transfers of dollars and most likely buy gold in the open market with
them! At that point the Euro would become the only tradable currency.
Simple political blackmail, or should I say "international protocols".
It's nothing new, but some call it a new "world order conspiracy". They
just haven't liven through enough years, as Another has. By the way, he
is back from travels. I don't know if that means he will write? Thanks FOA




TownCrier (08/12/99; 09:01:08MDT - Msg ID:10997)
U.S. July retail sales stronger than expected
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990812/lj.html
Total value of July retail sales was forecast by economists to be .3% higher than prior month, but it came in .7% higher according to a report by the Commerce Department.

Strengthens the case that the Fed will raise rates Aug. 24th.

Goldspoon (08/12/99; 08:30:12MDT - Msg ID:10996)
Platinum...
Some of you learned Knights please give me your thoughts on Platinum... I'm half gold, half platinum, half silver...uh wait a minute the maths not right.... any way, I'm spread out all over the place. Seems to me like Platinum would be the easiest market to corner and dry up avalible supplys, thus shoot the highest when tightness comes.... why no talk of platinum ???????

Goldspoon (08/12/99; 08:13:47MDT - Msg ID:10995)
Radio DJ Hacked Off !!!!
I called a local radio call in show about a month ago, the day BOE had thier gold sale. I told the DJ that we would witness on of the biggest RIP OFFs in history. I went on to say you could mark the top of the bull market by this and that short sellers of gold would sell the stock market on good earnings reports..... He replied that all of the analyst were seeing good times ahead and I sounded like one of those conspiracy nuts...... I called him back a couple of days ago and boy was he ticked!!!!! "Just a fluke" he says.... "Raising money to cover their gold short positions" I says... "The BOE dumping gold into the market to protect currencies and cash in on the market" I also says....... "This is NOT !!!! a BEAR MARKET !!!" he says "Check ya later on to see what ya have to barter with" left it at that..............

FOA (08/12/99; 08:03:10MDT - Msg ID:10994)
One Post!
Good day everyone:
There is so much going on right now I cannot possibly keep up. So this will be my one post.

Canuck (8/11/99; 5:35:12MDT - Msg ID:10885)---------Question, funds currently invested
through RRSP (401K?s in the US) do not allow ownership of much other than equities, or in some cases bonds."
Canuck, some people use CEF? Next best thing?

Julia (8/11/99; 9:25:06MDT - Msg ID:10897)----------Hi FOA, Didn't you say once to watch the COMEX to see this new gold market played out? COMEX delivery intention
breakdown? What are Issues and Stoppers?
Julia, I said watch Open Interest figures as they will most likely surge into all-time high territory (400,000+++) when an uncontrollable run starts. Comex is the only visible arena that paper shorts can cover in when they can't get the real metal to close trades. Because Comex mostly represents cash bets by longs, the shorts can use cash equity to establish long positions as a means to offset their paper sold position. It's won't close their exposure, only cover it. The OI hasn't spiked yet, but I think it will, big time. As for the local jargon, it just indicates who is locking up real metal deposits. Not much left there, as I think GS is positioning for Mr. WB!
Another said a long time ago (in one of his posts) that his (WB) silver purchases were only front running in a public company. As the cash amounts were real small for his size. His private money was moving quietly into gold. This Comex lock may indicate that there isn't any more (in size)
around?

18KARAT (8/11/99; 13:10:24MDT - Msg ID:10922)
Foreign Purchases of T bonds chart----http://www.investech.com/---Has anyone noticed this?
18K, that chart tells the story. Everyone keeps asking why any entity (or conspiracy) would want to destroy the dollar? Wrong context to view the action. The dollar is being dumped because of the inflationary expansion of this US money. The debt it has created is destroying whole economies. People are moving out of it because they are looking into the future and see a currency that "will" be devalued from it's own sins! If you sell your house and move on, are you killing the neighborhood that made you prosperous? No, you sell because the crime and decay is
going to lower your asset values!

Peter Asher (8/11/99; 13:21:27MDT - Msg ID:10926)----The Credit and Tulipmania Global bubble, cannot burst without destroying most paper held value. What else can they move paper money into and have value survive? On this premise is built the opinion that there will be visible Gold accumulation before there is visible equity distribution."
Peter, Yes! The gold part of this action has been going on for some years in the form of Paper Gold. Only now they will run from Paper gold first, before the physical gold bull!

TownCrier (8/11/99; 13:39:57MDT - Msg ID:10931)---Fed has no comment on Greenspan resignation rumor"
TC, it was a done deal when RR quit. Believe it!

Leigh (8/11/99; 14:42:29MDT - Msg ID:10937)---silver will be re-monetized?
Leigh, the hyped talk about silver has been around sense "forever". It's a good medium to gamble in but the real old world money always has and always will be in gold. I would go against my thoughts and bet on Goldfield (GOLD) or Homestake (HM) long before going for silver.

Orca (8/11/99; 15:20:53MDT - Msg ID:10941)---------It makes no sense that physical gold will increase, but companies that own non mined or just mined physical gold will not share in gold's value. They can hold it or sell it directly to those that want it thus reaping the benefit. Short of total confiscation by governments around the world, this will hold true... and if not, why not?
Orca, confiscation was never my term (that I remember anyway?). Does the government confiscate your assets when they tax your earnings? Do they confiscate oil profits by controlling the local price of oil as the Texas Railroad Commission did? Did they Confiscate oil reserves with
the windfall profits tax ( that was retroactive backwards, I might add). In the future, if they said "to promote fair trade and protect the consumer from the fraud of a manipulated private gold market, that has artificially priced gold in the thousands, we, the G-7 propose that all mine sales of gold must be made at the London (or wherever) world market price". Did someone just confiscate a mine here? No way my friend, dig away! (just thinking and smiling, without offense)
koan, I know you are reading this also (as I read all of yours too).

SteveH (8/11/99; 16:04:14MDT - Msg ID:10943)---I take exception to the extremis position that A/FOA hold to the dollar being on its last leg. Who would want this?
Steve, no one wants it, it is just a function of being "free to choose". No one wanted the British pound to fall from it's centuries old standing as a world reserve currency, but it did. And a lot of people lost a bunch of money in the process.
Also: Your post: One clarification please: "CBs mostly used gold comments to lend to the middle men while the mechanics of the market used the private stores for supply...." If you had to substitute a word for 'comments,' what would it be?
Sorry, bad word. I intended to use commitments, yet guarantees would have been an even better choice.

thanks all, FOA



ET (08/12/99; 07:54:02MDT - Msg ID:10993)
The Scot

Hey Scot - how ya doing? My sentiments exactly regarding your comment on US laws. I would suggest some should read a little US history, particularly the part about confiscation during the 1930's. Before the confiscation, the law stated you could hold gold. Bang - new law! Now you can't hold gold and 'must' hand it over to the government for compensation in dollars. We might indeed be a nation of laws but the law can change in a hurry when needed, as you mentioned, and it would be very unlikely to change to the benefit of the people at the expense of government/banks. Just an observation based on my reading of recent US history.

Further, gold and it's paper derivatives are traded worldwide. The world is not subject to US law, only citizens of the US. They can pass all the laws they want in the US and it will have little effect on Joe Sixpack in China or Switzerland. US laws mean nothing to the rest of the world. Assumptions that US laws will protect the value of your assets takes a great leap in faith as far as I'm concerned.

A bird in hand is worth two in the bush, eh?

ET


The Scot (08/12/99; 06:56:22MDT - Msg ID:10992)
koan # 10978
Koan, your response to FOA's explanation caused me to respond. Your statement that none would loose money because we are a nation of laws and everyone would be compensated justly. I cannot agree with you! I believe that IF these things come to pass as Another/FOA have predicted, this would not be a recession, not a depression, it would be economic disaster as viewed by the US govenment and martial law would probably be established by a quick stroke of the
"executive order" pen. Gold could be confiscated, gold mines could be confiscated and anyone resisting could be thrown in federal prison without even a short trial. DO NOT THINK that this could not happen in "our times". Governments are capable of anything at anytime. This is why I posses physical Gold, I will resist to the death to keep it.
Just putting my two-cents worth in. I'll probably get a penny change from most.
Sincerely, The Scot

Leigh (08/12/99; 06:45:32MDT - Msg ID:10991)
FOA, Stranger
Good morning, FOA! Hope you slept well.
________________________________________
Stranger, are you still with us? Sounds like the "King of Terror" came down from the sky right above you yesterday.

Jason Hommel (08/12/99; 05:16:44MDT - Msg ID:10990)
Goldfly
my email address, group@spintheweb.com, to take the discussion private, if you wish

koan (08/12/99; 04:31:30MDT - Msg ID:10989)
Goldsun: about dogs and bears
All I know Goldsun is that if it looks like a dog, and walks like a dog, and eats dog food, it must be a dog -unless it turns out to be a bear. Gold and silver looking good tonight - wish dollar would back off a bit and the yen get a little stronger. Oil should be the key tomorrow.

KJS (08/12/99; 04:04:28MDT - Msg ID:10988)
new article "When Will the Bubble Burst?"
http://www.capitalism.net/stockmkt.htm
This article hasn't been posted here yet. So here it is.


Goldsun (08/12/99; 02:49:39MDT - Msg ID:10987)
Nation of Labs
Koan
We never got around to the most interesting question: do you ever look at a black labrador and think it's a bear?
Goldsun

Goldsun (08/12/99; 02:27:53MDT - Msg ID:10986)
Whale tax
Orca
Although I am not familar with RRSP or 401k, I may be able to suggest perimeters for your parameters. When would the 40-50% government gouge for quitting the game be extracted? If not until next year, give consideration to the odds of the agencies involved surviving Y2K. If you feel the government of your nation of laws will still be able to confiscate half your money without compensation, borrow against the funds. From a bank which is likely to vanish.
Goldsun

Golden Truth (08/12/99; 02:14:03MDT - Msg ID:10985)
SPOT OLD JUST HIT $260.80 (:-))
Spot the Dog just tryed to break loose of his collar.
I think Spot is turning into a Pitbull.

THX-1138 (08/12/99; 01:33:45MDT - Msg ID:10984)
Tomcat, koan
Tomcat - That was a classic. I like it.

Koan - Thanks for the info about Titanium and NRL.M. I did not know if there were any Titanium mines in North America.


Sold my Newmont Stock monday. Broker said they should have my check to me on Thursday. Can't wait to pick up some more of that shiny yellow stuff. I think I will purchase some 1/2 oz Eagles, as the 1 oz seem to be getting scarce.


Read somewhere there was a rumor Alan Greenspan was deciding about quiting. My advice to him if it is true.
"Run for the hills. Grab some gold and go. Jump ship. Bail like crazy! Blame Clinton for the crash."

Goldsun (08/12/99; 01:18:50MDT - Msg ID:10983)
Gold comments
SteveH
If I may presume to put words into FOA's processor, comments started out to be commitments, but was attacked by a larval form of the Y2K bug.
Goldsun

koan (08/12/99; 00:45:26MDT - Msg ID:10982)
before I turn in
Last night at about midnight (before it was reported that Goldman Sachs had tied up 1/2 the comex inventory), I said my guess was that we would find out some of the big boys and girls were buying/tying up huge amounts of gold and this was driving up lease rates. Isn't this exactly what I was talking about, or am I missing something? As I have said, you have historical lows in the PM's and oil going through the roof. The pros can see this - and they did something about it. Maybe where I differ from some, is that I think Goldman Sachs just tied it up for an investor that saw a good time to go long; and maybe cover some short positions. I don't rule out extraordinary circumstances - its just that the logic to go long this last week, on fundamentals alone, was staggering. Good night all. Your best one yet Tomcat.

koan (08/12/99; 00:35:26MDT - Msg ID:10981)
that a keeper Tomcat
That was great.

Tomcat (08/12/99; 00:28:55MDT - Msg ID:10980)
It is important to know the properties and of PMs you aquire.


Date: Wed Aug 11 1999 19:15
Claymoremind (Speaking of new elements - ) ID#342123:
Copyright © 1999 Claymoremind/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved


Speaking of new elements -


Symbol: Wo

Discoverer: Adam

Atomic mass: Accepted as 53.6 kg, may vary from 40- 200kg

Element: Woman

Occurrence: Copious quantities in all urban areas

Physical properties:

1. Surface usually covered in painted film

2. Boils at nothing, freezes without any known reason

3. Melts if given special treatment

4. Bitter if incorrectly used

5. Found in various states, ranging from virgin metal to common ore

6. Yields to pressure applied at correct points

Chemical properties:

1. Has great affinity for gold, silver and a range of precious stones

2. Absorbs great quantities of expensive substances

3. May explode spontaneously without prior warning and for no known reason

4. Most powerful money reducing agent known to man

Common uses:

1. Highly ornamental, especially in sports cars

2. Can be a great aid to relaxation

3. Very effective cleaning agent

Tests:

1. Pure specimen turns rosy pink when discovered in natural state

2. Turns green when placed beside a better specimen

Potential hazards:

1. Highly dangerous except in experienced hands

2. Illegal to posses more than one, although several
can be maintained at different locations as long as specimens do not come into direct contact with
each other

WARNING:

PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THIS ELEMENT CAN CAUSE SEVERE PHYSICAL, MENTAL,

AND FINANCIAL DAMAGE!



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