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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/12/1999
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
View Yesterday's Discussion.
Rhialto
(11/12/99; 23:27:45MDT - Msg ID:19035)
Cambior's hedge book
http://www.financialtimes.com
London Financial Times article: "Gold miners face question of pruning their hedges" discusses specific company's hedge attitudes and their arguments pro and con, including Cambior's published simulation of their hedge book with chart.
It appears to me, in the absence of evidence otherwise, that the miners are the ones who started the price decline, and some of them continue to pursue this activity. These guys are down but not out. Yet.
These guys are like chickens with their heads cut off.
The 292.10 close on the Dec contract looks to me like an excellent buy now for the coming weeks now that the Dec options are out of the way. There was huge activity right before the close and someone was defending 290 with all it took. The close today was like the one some weeks ago with London options expiring where the price was temporarily driven down to cause the 290 options to expire. My guess is clear sailing UP from here. The downside appears limited to where we are, and the upside is only limited by traders' concepts of resistence, which often are overcome by economic realities.
Anyone waiting to buy gold after today will be increasingly disappointed, IMO. Best wishes, all.
Al Fulchino
(11/12/99; 23:07:00MDT - Msg ID:19034)
for Beesting and also for the collodialist in all of us
http://www.handyharman.com/index.html
Beesting, here is a site you might find some interest in. It doesn't go as deep as I would like, but it still gives some decent info.
And this site even mentions bacteria killing silver!
HLime
(11/12/99; 23:06:05MDT - Msg ID:19033)
(No Subject)
Well ET that reminds me of a Who song, "Wont get fooled again". Prophetic.
Do you know your history? Just what effect does the 16th and 17th amendments
have on your day to day existence (ifins u r merkin). One of the first things I would
do is outlaw any form of insurance. I can not guarantee you will live another day,
nor should I. I doubt that I could find 50 in this country that would get in a
wagon train and go cross country. Unless they had guarantees that the Injuns
would not attack, that there is water and grassing each night, that there is a guvmint
job, house and land on there other end. We do not appreciate what liberties we
give up for "insurance". I am tired of being smothered with love from my guvmint.
Harry
Journeyman
(11/12/99; 22:53:01MDT - Msg ID:19032)
Prototype bankruptcy ploy for COMEX, etc.??
The near-defunct Tokobank has won a potentially
precedent-setting court decision, allowing it to not pay millions
of dollars in debts on currency forward contracts held by a large
group of investors.
Tokobank, which was stripped of its licnese by the Central
Bank in September, was taken to court by a large group of Russian
and foreign banks, including Morgan Stanley, BankAmerica,
Bankers'Trust, Bank Austria, Citibank, Moscow's MFK Bank and
others. ....
On Friday, the Moscow City Arbitration Court rejected the
banks' suit on the grounds that currency forward contracts are in
fact nothing but wagers, and the Russian civil code says wagers
cannot be settled by courts unless one of the sides was coerced
or deceived into making the bet.
.... The forwards were foreign investors' preferred means
for hedging their investments in ruble-denominated Russian
government securities before the domestic debt default of Aug.
17. Banks, usualy Russian ones, offered investors a chance to
convert rubles into dollars at a certain date. If on that date
the ruble was more expensive than specified in the contract, the
Russian bank won out. If the ruble was cheaper, the bank lost and
the investor successfully protected his investment. ...."Many of
the people suspected the ruble would be devalued, and the
forwards were a convenient way to bet on it," Zabotkin said,
adding that these contracts would not be covered by any debt
restructuring deal. .... A source in Tokobank, who spoke on
condition of anonymity, said that the bank had earlier won a
similar decision in another court against Bank Imperial.
...
Alexi Gerasyuk, spokesman for MFK Bank--one of the
plaintiffs in the case--said MFK disagreed with the description
of forward contracts as wagers. -Leonid Bershidsky, "Judge Lets
Tokobank Snub Forwards Debt," The Moscow Times, WEDNESDAY,
OCTOBER 21, 1998, pg.10
Regards,
Journeyman
ET
(11/12/99; 22:26:14MDT - Msg ID:19031)
Harry
You wrote in part:
"My friends a storm is coming, deny it all you want. My worst fear is that
I will get a dear Captain Harry letter from the guvmint, and I can guarantee you
I will pull a Von Trapp when it comes. I want nothing to do with preserving
the old order. I only hope with the grace of God I will be standing on the other
side to help rebuild it to the way it was before 1913."
Hey Harry - does this 'new order' seem a lot like the 'old order', or is it just me? <g>
ET
Scrappy
(11/12/99; 22:07:09MDT - Msg ID:19030)
Town Crier
You are very much appreciated.
Thank you.
Btw, thank you also, for the tip on navigating through the archives. Would've been a bummer to realize I'd missed half the posts! Tanx! And tanx again!
TownCrier
(11/12/99; 21:43:36MDT - Msg ID:19029)
After the Close: the GOLDEN VIEW from The Tower
Wall Street was spurred on today by the Labor Department's report that the third-quarter U.S. non-farm labor productivity grew at an annual rate of 4.2%. Actually, they were most encouraged because the number was well above expectations for a 3.0% pace. And if that weren't enough, they particularly cheered news that unit labor costs rose less. Make no mistake, unit labor costs rose at 0.6%, (keep in mind that in the second quarter the increase was 4.2% that hasn't gone away) but again, the most important thing to the investment mentality of the day was that it was better than the ananlysts' expectations for a 1.4% rate. Toss in the benign, unchanged retail sales in October, and all things with U.S. stamped on it was off to the races...stocks, bonds, currency.
CALL ME BOB EUKER
"I must be in the front row!" Unfortunately, it becomes more apparent that this is a grisly slow motion setup for a train wreck rather than a baseball game in which we could debate whether the guy really did miss the tag, or argue the merits of Miller Lite™..."less filling" vs. "tastes great."
The signs of euphoria abound as the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 0.75%, tacking on nearly 24 points to reach its 10th record close in 11 sessions at 3221.15 on volume that was its fourth heaviest ever. The DOW was inspired and climbed 174 points (+1.64%) to 10769.32, also on heavy volume. The signs of euphoria are evident in what the reporters are writing and what the traders are saying...some of them incredulous at what they're seeing.
TheStreet.com blithely (or else sardonically...it's open to interpretation) said that a particular tech stock today "rocketed 19.7% on what's becoming a sure way to spur an explosive rally in a tech stock -- an announcement of an announcement."
In talking to someone in the middle of the action, Doug Myers, vice president of equity trading at IJL Wachovia, they coaxed the following out of him: "In this particular market, this particular session, there's definitely an urgency of 'I gotta get mine. There was no one pinching their noses and buying. People were just paying the plus ticks." When asked about the prospects of a Fed rate hike (or not) next week as a factor in investors decisions, he said "There's just nothing on their sheets, nothing they've seen, read, heard or smelled that has any dark cloud, so they figure, 'I better hurry up and get out and get something.'" He further cautioned that this can't last. "This is a little too much, too soon. When it moves too much, too quick it sets itself up for an ugly pullback. I like nice, steady sustainable increases. This geometric growth cannot be sustained."
To continue, Larry Rice, chief investment strategist at Josephthal, seems to agree, worrying that a "bubble mentality" has developed in the Nasdaq. "If you look at the breadth, it certainly has started to deteriorate again, and we haven't really gotten into tax selling yet." Another money manager offer his view, "The market reminds me of two children's games: pin the tail on the donkey and musical chairs. There's this mentality similar to the Iomega (IOM:NYSE) mania. Find the next company that's going to go up 30 points in a day. So it's like pin the tail on the donkey. But it's also like musical chairs. The music will stop. It always does."
Nobody stopped the bonds, and the price of the 30-Yr Bond closed up 24/32 to drop the yield to 6.024%. Would you be willing to lock up today's purchasing power, found in each of your dollars, for 30 years with an annual promise that you'll be given 6% more currency? I believe the chances are too great over such a period of time that escalating real world prices would eat you alive.
I'D LIKE MUSTARD WITH THAT, PLEASE
Also being eaten alive today was the euro. Early selling was inspired by the German report of a 2.7% decline in October retail sales. In a lightly traded market, the euro rapidly fell near $1.0300 at which point the release of the U.S. data was the last straw, dumping it to a 3 1/2-month low at $1.0288. At day's end, the euro recaptured some losses, settling at $1.0315, down nearly 1¢. The dollar gained modestly against the yen, closing at ¥105.17.
GOLD
Today marked the expiry of options on the December COMEX gold futures contract, and the price heading into the final half hour of trade was on par with yesterday's close. According to FWN, traders attributed the late fall to book-squaring ahead of options expiry. You can almost see exactly what happened. According to yesterday's option open interest numbers, there were 10,169 contracts at the $300 call level which were not in the money, so they played no factor. However, there were 6,555 contracts at the $290 call level, which all would have been in the money (with the December gold contract trading at $295). "The early bird gets the worm", or "last one in is a rotten egg", or "sticks and stones may brea-" no, wait...that one doesn't work. (Unless someone's just called you a "rotten egg.") Well, what good is an in-the-money option unless you exercise it, especially if it's expiry day today? Maybe some of the 6,555 futures contracts were taken with the intention of holding further into December. Certainly, some would want to sell them immediately to recognize the gain on the differential between strike price paid and the contract price received. The selling gives you downward pricing pressure, maybe inspiring others to sell before its too late, and you get a typical price dump like we saw. Unfortunately, today is Friday, so there is no immediately following market action in which to correct the price upward. So...we wait until Monday.
While the December gold fell $2.80 to $292.10, the spot price last quoted in NY was lower by a factor equal to the future cost of dollars and the future cost of gold (remember the LIBOR and lease rate discussion?). In case that is too much math for a Friday night, the value translates to $290.60 for spot, down $2.70.
Cambior Inc. is still hoping for deus ex machina before its standstill agreement with its lenders and hedging counterparties expires on November 26. Should the worldwide price of gold hinge on the outcome? Certainly not. But as we saw in Ashanti's case when a deal was struck, truth can be stranger than fiction.
Can gold be far behind? Bridge news reports that China will abolish its 50-year-old state monopoly on silver, allowing it to trade freely and encouraging its exportation. When the move will be enacted wasn't specified.
Currently, silver prices in the domestic market are officially set by the government.
STOCK TIP
Normally we don't give stock tips, but this one is a no-brainer. BHF Bank of Germany. These guys are good. Apparently, Zimbabwe has recently entered into a deal in which they have pledged a "major part of its national gold output over the next year," according to Bridge News, as collateral for a $150 million loan from, that's right, BHF Bank of Germany. Although the bank declined to provide details of the deal, the word on the street is that 600,000 ounces have been set aside as collateral. It is unclear from the report whether the repayment on the $150 mil would be the gold output over the next year (in which case you've got yourself a semi-typical gold loan), or whether that output figure was used simply to provide some context for appreciating the size of the 600,000 ounces used as collateral. Here's The Tower's best guess from our own, idependently operated think tank. The 600,000 is on hand today, and pledged as collateral for the Bank to do the arduous task of cutting a check for $150,000,000 Pay to the Order of the Government of Zimbabwe. The following "national gold output over the next year" (newly mined gold) will be used to replace the 600,000 ounces pledged as collateral. This, my friends, is how the big players get their gold. Did you see the spot price jump? No? I didn't think so. Is there an active gold financial system in play in the world? You bet there is, and you just now got a good peek. Certainly, this contract could be tailored to provide various cash/gold swap strategies during payback, but this is the starting point. By the way, forget the stock tip; start your own mini-bank instead...now that you know how.
STATS
The Eligible gold inventory today continues the recent trend of leaking slowly out the door, another 2,405 ounces leaving the vault at Scotia Mocatta, leaving COMEX Eligible stock at 88,029 ounces. Registered stock remains unadjusted at 857,645 ounces. Open interest on December futures continued to fall yesterday, down 3,203 on volume of 23,657 to an OI level of 78,563 contracts.
OIL
Crude is up to its old tricks again, climbing higher. NYMEX December crude settled up 58c at $24.91, partially on news that OPEC's lone production-cut buster, Iraq, could experience delays on oil exports of 7-10 days. And similar to some recent chat about large funds selling future gold contracts while buying current gold metal, in today's FWN Energy Review we have this: "There was talk that a major trading house was shorting the back months and buying up the front month crude, according to several participants."
Every day is a fine day for gold ownership, and Fridays are no exception.
And that's the view from here...after the close.
Scrappy
(11/12/99; 21:34:30MDT - Msg ID:19028)
Hi everyone.
Just a thought from scrappyland.
When I first looked to gold, it was as a combination savings & possible investment vehicle. Being pretty ignorant in the ways of investing, I simply looked at a booklet of commodities charts, saw that gold was at twenty year lows, and said, "hmmm". Realizing that I was ignorant in the ways of investing, and being too smart/chicken to take my small prize and throw it out there, I said to myself, "If I invest in futures contracts, and it doesn't play out like I think it will, when I hope it will, I will lose all. If I buy the gold itself, I merely have to hang on to it until the price goes up, and I have lost nothing, and may even gain." Obvious, was the answer for my little venture.
Not too long after, my daughter acquired this computer. (me deciding that I would wait until after y2k, and perhaps, the rise of gold, to buy mine.) After a few months of watching her do nothing with it except play games, I bought the internet service for her, and I have been here ever since.
Every time I checked in on the price of gold, I saw that it declined. This was disappointing, and I thought I'd better look at why. Whoa, talk about being clueless.
However, I've been acquiring some knowledge about the financial ways of the world, the diabolical manipulations of the 'powers that be', and one possible direction that we are going, as put forth by FOA, ANOTHER, Arisotle, et al.
I've some to the conclusion that, I'm gonna hang on to my gold. Even if this whole currency war thing doesn't play out quite like FOA, et.al. predict, {Although, I think it will, more or less}, I do believe that the dollar is on the way out, and whatever is left, gold will be a part of it.
Why is the dollar on the way out? That's obvious. It is too debt-ridden, too messed with, and it causes too much economic woe for the rest of the world. The 'powers that be' have to see this, know this, and have probably been positioning themselves for the next gig for quite some time.
Why will gold be part of whatever is left? That, is also obvious. It always has been. It is still held in high regard by some very important parts of the world-like the Middle East, the keepers of the oil. And, by just about everyone else, besides the USA. And, there is nothing we, {the U.S.) can do about changing that international opinion.
I am here for the long haul. No matter what happens with y2k, this currency war thing seems to have some heavy implications. Somethings got to give; things have been too far out of balance for too long. The intro of the Euro and the resurrection of the Dinar are but two signs that the times, they are a changin'. (from a simple point of view).
I am just a little guy, living life at the bottom of the heap. Being little, I tend to keep things simple. {At least until I have enough knowledge to merrily run in labyrinths, having a grand ol' time making myself nuts}. I just thought I'd put this thought out there, for you really knowledgeable people who are running that labyrinth, experiencing near-death every time the price drops. Look at the big picture, and take it easy.
P.s. My gut feeling on y2k is, whether the technical problems are overblown or downplayed, it seems like too convenient an 'event' for Someone, somewhere, to not use it as part of a play in this money war. Y2k will be an event, if for no other reason than at least one 'player' somewhere, will use it to thier advantage.
(Didn't spend too much time in the archives, tonight. The neighbor had a baby. See you all later}
Cavan Man
(11/12/99; 20:33:47MDT - Msg ID:19027)
For The Stranger
http://www.prudentbear.com
"With this in mind there is absolutely no doubt that we are in a very dangerous inflationary environment".
David Tice
The Prudent Bear
I paid $2.09 for a 19 OZ. can of Progresso soup yesterday (I like pea soup and the ingredients are good). This price is up .2 to .3 cents per can = 10.6%. Also, private label whole milk at $3.35; good thing we don't eat soup or drink milk TOO much.
Cavan Man
Anywhere USA
TownCrier
(11/12/99; 18:38:43MDT - Msg ID:19026)
Tea leaves: IMM currency futures end mixed, euro sharply lower
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/991112/6b.html
Here's what those trading currecy futures contracts on the International Money Market did and the alleged reasons why.
TownCrier
(11/12/99; 18:31:35MDT - Msg ID:19025)
Just How Big Will the Euro Currency Zone Become?
http://quote.bloomberg.com/pgcgi.cgi?T=markets_newsfeat99.ht=&ptitle=EMU%20Top%20Stories&touch=1&s=c1cefda877b333ff6d5bb5a662903bb8
Some cheers and some jeers from outsider looking in on the expansion of euroland and the shifts in opinion and policy.
Where this analyst looks at the 4.7% decline in Germany's September retail sales and mockingly asks in the direction of Wim Duisenberg, the governor of the European Central Bank: "Your excellency, do you still think you were right to raise euro short-term rates by 50 basis points last week?", The Tower suggests to him that any CB that has taken so much care in regard to gold has surely got a leg up on the "conventional wisdom" and probably not only knows more of what's going on behind the scences, but also knows more than a frisky financial analyst from Yale looking in from the outside.
CoBra(too)
(11/12/99; 18:30:52MDT - Msg ID:19024)
(Ir-)or -rational Investment Philosophy? That may be the question?
Just got back, after a busy week, which ended with a dinner party among friends - I thought ... and had a prolonged discussion with an ex-IMF official. The 'le beau' rest of the party was drawn towards extremes - whom would you give credit - FIAT worked for my generation!- don't give me your monetary history (of gold, come on it's GDP - growth, of course, forget the rest - no 'beau's))! ...
I'll try to find time to expand on above topics over the weekend, though I still have to figure a way to get the dead foliage of my lawn.
@ TC, @ the 5th. Intl. Fin. a. Mon. Forum in Vienna, W. Mc.Donough stated that growth of productivity in the US is accelerating since 1995 and ever since. Though, the final outcome in the race between labour cost and IT-induced productivity gains is still a bet for the FED as to when to step on the interest brake!
You bet, the FED will miss the brake, instead !!!
Too late or early (2.30a.m.) - More tomorrow - if you can stand it - best CB2
AEL
(11/12/99; 18:20:56MDT - Msg ID:19023)
another important Y2K item
http://www.systemtransformation.com/artaftersho.htm
Another fine paper, one that paints a picture similar to
that of Dale Way (i.e. of a slower-developing, chronic series of
disruptions), is William Ulrich's "Y2K Aftershock". Ulrich is a
ComputerWorld columnist and long-time IT observer/pundit:
http://www.systemtransformation.com/artaftersho.htm
A short excerpt therefrom:
Year 2000 Aftershock
By William Ulrich
Introduction
By April 15, 2000, some of the initial impacts of the year 2000 problem
will have dissipated. Many others, however, will have cascaded into a
series of long-term, systemic challenges. Most of the scenario planning
around Y2K has focused on the 24-hour period that begins on December 31,
1999 and ends on January 1, 2000. Unfortunately, looking at the year 2000
problem through this narrow window only considers a limited number of year
2000-related issues.
The countless issues stemming from secondary Y2K impacts are unlikely to
manifest themselves for days, weeks or even longer. The concept of the
three-day snowstorm that has been promoted by government leaders and
emergency managers ignores this reality. Determining how Y2K might impact
us requires examining various domestic and international situations that
could emerge as the first wave of problems subsides.
These global premises outlined in this paper are based on documentation
that exists today. The localized scenario, which brings the issue home for
many people, draws upon this data in order to personalize the situation.
The Aftershock Scenario represents neither a best case nor a worst case set
of circumstances, but an educated guess as to what may ultimately occur....
TownCrier
(11/12/99; 18:07:53MDT - Msg ID:19022)
Sir tedw
I'm in the middle of scanning the horizon for the assembly of the GOLDEN VIEW, but will pause briefly to get the ball rolling...seeing that I'm the one who instigated this and that you were bold enough to fire up that password and post a very good question.
Here is my sad answer...no one can say with certainty. Your own thought process, as you've nicely laid out in your post, has pretty-much covered the bases. Bankruptcy of the counterparty is always a possibility, though it might be that COMEX guarantees delivery of the goods to the one party, and COMEX then is the entity who eats it if the counterparty fails to stand and deliver as expected. Maybe this is what the question now becomes for any of the knowledgeable COMEX traders out there.
Consider this, though. The underlying asset is simply a contract, for which gobs and gobs may be created as long as someone puts up the margin to do so. The options' strike price is not the price on gold metal, but rather on the gold contract. The price of December gold, for example, is based on the supply and demand trading forces upon that contract. The very insightful words of FOA once said in effect, 'these big paper boys (the hedgers and bullion banks you've mentioned as possible bankruptcy candidates) are not going to hang themselves with their own rope.'
They will not rush to compete for the buying of December contracts if it means bankrupting themselves. They would sooner sell the contract into the ground and let the exchange lock up in a state of disorder to save themselves. Further, we can't limit ourselves to linear thinking...it's a much wider world than just gold derivatives. As needed, if they recognize the writing on the wall that their gold derivative positions will in fact blow up on them, they will try to hedge their exposure in any number of avenues.
As already alluded to, they could sell the future paper into the ground while at the same time acquiring what metal they can on the spot market. In the end game, a little physical gold will have more bargaining power for them than whatever position of paper contracts might be ammassed against them. The exchange can always change the rules to protect the institutions...they've done it before. Or, in wider action, if the expected surge in gold price is also expected to take a toll on the dollar, they would hedge their overall book by shorting the dollar at whatever leverage is deemed necessary to offset the gold short exposure. (Do you see a very, VERY vicious circle forming here?...higher gold weakening the dollar, hedge funds short the dollar which further weakens the dollar, a weaker dollar increases the price of gold which further weakens the dollar, etc.)
Their best course of action is to not do anything rash, but to slowly transition out of their positions, selling it off over time to the inexperienced individual sheep who step in expecting to make millions in gold derivatives. If you can get a million people to all part with $5,000, you've just engineered a 5 billion dollar bailout by doing nothing more than biding your time.
Many things are possible, and unfortunately I've only scratched the surface in this exercise in creative thinking. (If anyone complains that the GOLDEN VIEW is hereby shorter than usual, fend them off for me, will ya, tedw?)
AEL
(11/12/99; 17:55:56MDT - Msg ID:19021)
a must-read on Y2K
http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/roleigh_martin/end_game_critique.htm
A must-read -- one of the most signficant contributions to the debate in
recent months -- is the writeup by IEEE Y2K Chair Dale Way:
http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/roleigh_martin/end_game_critique.htm
And, supplementarily, this thread from the TB2000 forum:
http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001jnW
here is a pertinent excerpt from that thread... with something to offend
everyone (my favorite!):
.....
BOTH the Chicken Littles and the Pollyannas ARE WRONG.
The Chicken Littles, who most often exhibit the hand-wringing/ embedded
chip/ physical control systems/ "we could lose power and everything!"/
utilities/ hazardous material plants/ Bhopal & Chernobyl trajectory are
wrong because they do not understand the basic mechanism necessary to force
a Y2K error and what relatively minimal opportunities in those systems for
those mechanisms to play out. They are wrong because they have no concept
of the nature of those systems and how, and under what value and incentive
systems, the overall, often life-critical systems (the ones containing all
the embedded components and subsystems) were ENGINEERED to withstand
regular failures of almost all of its parts at one time or another without
ceasing to function. They do not understand, on top of these other
advantages, how well these systems are understood by their care- givers.
How much simpler they are in comparison to those systems we must be
concerned about. Those that the Pollyannas cannot see.
The Pollyannas are in denial not because they do not see threats that are
not really there, but because they do not understand and appreciate the
massive size and complexity of software-intensive, intensely
interconnected/interdependent/data sharing enterprise management systems
normally associated with accounting and administrative functions. They do
not understand how prevalent and long-lasting are the opportunities for Y2K
errors to emerge in systems here and how much more difficult and
time-consuming it will be to track them down and neutralize them. They do
not understand how resistant these systems are to remediation, especially
fundamentally flawed, "compliance-based" traditional invasive software
remediation that pushes its most difficult problems out into the
beleaguered testing phase. Pollyannas do not understand how little these
systems are really understood by their caregivers and how ill-disciplined,
how CRAFT and occasionally ART-based are the doings here, having been
carried on under a decades-long succession of trendy, fashion-based
technologies and methodologies however competently (or not) executed by an
equally long succession of different maintenance teams.
But before the Chicken Littles (and everybody else) run over to the other
side of the boat, the accounting/administrative computing side, threatening
to tip it over in to despair, take great comfort from the fact that most of
these "errors" will not be very destructive, or that destructive to things
that really matter. We can, to a large extent, isolate and contain, or
compensate for in other ways, most of the errors, including just slowing
things down to the rate we can manage. Some transactions will get kicked
out, some systems will stop, but only more frequently than they do now, not
stop as if they have never stopped before; most non-trivial systems fail
regularly already. Plus, as I have indicated, the problems will tend to
correct themselves when the vulnerability windows of systems close as all
their data representations clear the century boundary and inhabit only the
2000 side. Accounting systems do not DIRECTLY threaten life and limb. We
have more flexibility in dealing with their short comings.
Do not think of me as a Pollyanna (more precisely a mealy-mouthed
apologist) because I know the electrical system is going to function very
close to, if not totally, normally through and beyond the rollover. And
don't think of me as a Chicken Little because I see the weakness in the
administrative computing infrastructure. I am a bell- curve centrist. The
extremists on both end are wrong. As Will Rodgers said "It's not what we
don't know that hurts us, it's what we know that ain't so."
tedw
(11/12/99; 17:21:16MDT - Msg ID:19020)
Defaulting on Options
The Town Crier has prompted me to ask a question that has
been on my mind.
Does anyone have an opinion on the likelihood that Gold CallOptions on the Comex will be defaulted on?
In other words, if the price of Gold rises dramatically
between now and say June, will the option writers have the
werewithall to perform on their obligations? In the last run
up, I saw how volatile they were. What is to prevent these
companies,funds,or banks from declaring bankruptcy and paying pennies on the dollar?
I am enjoying the education Im getting here. I always knew
school was the last place to go if you really wanted to learn.
Aristotle
(11/12/99; 16:57:33MDT - Msg ID:19019)
Various items
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/1619992/day2.html
Silver Tongue (Msg ID:18974) " Smell the autumn and enjoy the hour."
You sound like my long lost brother!
JCS (Msg ID:19002),
Thanks for posting that text about Abraham Lincoln, his greenbacks, and the misgivings of "The London Times" in that period. Their theory that "...Government will furnish its own money without cost. It will pay off debts and be without a debt. It will have all the money necessary to carry on its commerce. It will become prosperous beyond precedent in th history of the civilized governments of the world. The brains and the wealth of all countries will go to North America. That government must be destroyed, or it will destroy every monarchy on the globe..." is so fundamentally flawed I'll have a fun time later this weekend punching holes in it for the delight of everyone here assembled, yourself included, hopefully. Although it might appear like the issue is solid upon casually reading it, a person can't be so relaxed as to take it at face value without a bit of additional thought. To make my point, if, through debt-free paper, Lincoln could eventually "conquer" the world, the so-called "cabal" that is apparently out to get us would have surely employed the same technique centuries ago. I assure you, however, my coming response to this idea is founded on principles much more concrete than the anecdotal evidence just cited that no one has yet capitalized on such an apparently easy scheme to rule the world. Think in these terms, would you accept obligation-free paper from Botswana for the discharge of your personal goods or services?
Nice post, Holtzman, on the whole Fish/Dolphin business, and about the trading herd participating in bringing about effects that look like manipulations of "the cabal." I had tried to indicate as much in my recent post about the exercise of options--and the subsequent scramble to cash in on their in-the-money futures, thereby bringing the price to the appropriate strike level in the process. I'm glad to see I'm not alone in that perception.
Rhialto, sorry I have been so slow to respond to your inquiry. I'm afraid you misinterpreted what I was saying in my post (on Wednesday?). I would never indicate, as you proposed, that someone was being "foolish" for having paper investments. I believe the ability to contract by one individual with another is one of the strongest elements in the advancement of the human condition. Many paper investments can be looked at as extentions and variations of contracts. The problem creeps in when these contracts are mass produced, of dubious origin, or the terms are such that default becomes an opportunity without counterparty recourse. Simple example: Where are you as a stockholder when your corporation goes bankrupt? Where are you when Sony Corporation won't accept your national currency (except when valued for its paper content by the basketfull) in exchange for a Walkman radio? TownCrier posted today that Russia's ruble has lost over 99% of its value in the last eight years. A contract without honor (as Another would surely say), and you are nowhere--years of surplus productivity gone. I think it was also posted in Townie's Golden View on Wednesday that not only were miners being burned in this contracting business of hedging future production, but that the bullion banks themselves were getting scorched too. If these pros on both sides of the business are getting it so wrong, what make you think a peon like myself would ever come out ahead in the long run playing that same game? Further, in my response to a series of quotes in a recent Denver Business Journal (or whatever it was called), I said right up front that I thought the broadbrushed advice of the brokers to keep your money invested through thick and thin was pretty irresponsible. To give such advice, fraught with risk, without first evaluating the unique situation of the individual is astounding. Such advice should be limited the fundamental truths of the day, helping the individual to draw the conclusion that works for him.
To anyone that might read one or two of my posts in isolation, I might come across as a bit of a cracked pot. Self-evaluation is always prone to bias, but if I evaluate some of my past accomplishments I'm quickly reassured that my elevator does indeed go all the way to the top floor, in a manner of speaking. I noticed Scrappy is working her way through the archives from the very beginning. I didn't receive this password to begin posting until mid-February. I've only recently begun posting again after a busy schedule permitting no time during the latter half of Summer--making it tough for anyone newly-arrived to have more than a snapshot of my views. The link above corresponds to the day on which I started posting, and promptly laid out a lot of my personal philosophies of currency and Gold. I'm sure as I've absorbed the views of many here there has been a subtle evolution and strengthening of my convictions.
I encourage anyone to revisit this era in the archives, not just to get an idea of the view through my eyes, but also to see all of the profound commentary in those following days by some of the mightier voices that have graced this round table: Peter Asher, beesting, turbohawg, SteveH, Aragorn III, USAGOLD, FOA, and many others that I can't recall offhand that haven't been as vocal lately.
One word of caution. Just as Townie mentioned to Scrappy, back then the days were divided into two 12 hour blocks. When you move forward or back a day, I think it defaults to the morning posts. After you read those, click the appropriate link to see the rest of the day before moving on to yet another day. (The link I've provided will take you directly to the afternoon posts.)
Enjoy your weekend, everyone!
Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle
HLime
(11/12/99; 15:46:03MDT - Msg ID:19018)
Further frozen thoughts
It was not my intent to get everyone in a funk about PM prices. I bought most
of my Ag as a hedge/investment with the intent that I would sell it at this time.
The few #s of Au that I have are in stronger hands and I will take that across
the line as well as my junk silver collection. I keep a jar of dust next to the
key board to remind me that the summer sun will return (give it back Aussies).
Thanx YGM for the additive tip. For those of you who do not know the finer
points of diesel, it comes in two grades; summer weight #2 and winter #1.
The main difference is how thick the oil is. #1 will not gel at sub arctic temps,
#2 graded +10 will gel at 10F degrees and -15 will gel at -15F. The big
difference to a miner is the price and horse power. My little 450 can suck
15 to 20 gallons a day of +10 #2.
My friends a storm is coming, deny it all you want. My worst fear is that
I will get a dear Captain Harry letter from the guvmint, and I can guarantee you
I will pull a Von Trapp when it comes. I want nothing to do with preserving
the old order. I only hope with the grace of God I will be standing on the other
side to help rebuild it to the way it was before 1913.
On a lighter side I enjoyed the story about Mr. Johnson the other day. There are
many Mr. Johnsons in Alaska. I know of a miner who owns a claim on the other
side of Cleary Summit from the claim I work. He has a 6" drill rig and when
he needs bank numbers he drills a hole down through 140' of frozen muck to
the pay streak. You do the math. Just how much dirt is there in a 6" cylinder?
I made the mistake of asking a miner how much Au there was in a cubic
yard on his claim. He sternly looked at me and asked how much money I had
in my bank account. I got the point. There is nothing, and I mean nothing, that
you can not buy in this town with gold dust. Hell you can pay your phone bill
in dust, they have a scale at the counter. That is why the guvmint hates gold.
It is independence. Some of the richest miners run around in ratty old pickups.
There is no need to flaunt it.
Oh well got to skip into town and get more diesel.
Hauptmann Harry
Strad Master
(11/12/99; 15:29:31MDT - Msg ID:19017)
Y2K and Gold
To put my two Vienna Philharmonics into today's Y2K discussion, it seems to me that most of the pre-Y2K gold purchases probably have been happening slowly and steadly over the past several months, if not a few years. All that gold that was purchased as a hedge against Y2K problems hasn't made the POG go any higher, has it? In fact, as we all know, the POG has been dropping steadily, with the exception of the past few months. Seems to me, then, that if Y2K turns out to be a non-event, the worst that could happen as a result of some or most of that gold coming back into the market would be an equivalent dent in the POG - namely, nothing! All the privately-held gold amounts to a pittance of what the big players shuffle around daily - whether in physical or paper gold. (Could it be that individual Goldbugs take themselves and their ability to influence the market FAR too seriously?) It might even be fun to speculate that a sudden flooding of the gold market by disappointed Y2K'rs will send the POG up since, obviously, all the buying brought it down. Since when does the gold market have to make any sense, anyhow?
YGM
(11/12/99; 15:26:10MDT - Msg ID:19016)
Thailand to Delay IMF payments til After 1/01/00
Maybe we should all withold C/Card payments. :)
Central bank chief will beat the bug
To hear some people tell it, the best place to spend the New Year holiday will be in a cave well-stocked with provisions, and no electrical or electronic devices.
Oh, everyone's telling you that they're Y2K ready, but a lot of people are taking no chances. Don't ride in an elevator, the Cassandras say. When it gets to the top, the elevator will think it's 1900 and.. well, high-rises haven't been invented and it's a long, painful way down. Why, even your toaster could turn on you if it's not Y2K compliant.
And who really wants to go near an ATM to stock up on cash for those extortionately priced hotel millennium parties? The banks' advertising tells you one thing, but executives are discreetly suggesting that you load up on grey notes in advance and keep all your receipts.
And never mind that 100 tests later, the Stock Exchange of Thailand still feels the need to draft 52 contingency plans against the millennium bug.
"We are Y2K ready," market managers declare.
Even M.R. Chatumongol Sonakul, the central bank governor, says there's one transaction he wants to put off until a decent interval has elapsed in January: paying back the IMF.
Thailand has drawn about $13 billion from its international bailout fund, and doesn't want any more, thank you.
Withdrawals were originally set to end in the middle of next year, with repayments to follow soon after. But with foreign reserves at comfortable levels and the baht relatively stable, the government is breathing easier.
In fact, the Finance Ministry wanted to begin repayments as early as next month to help save interest costs.
But the central bank chief favours waiting a few weeks longer.
His official pronouncement: "The central bank will not conduct any foreign-exchange transactions from December 15 until January 15, while existing swap obligations will be rolled over."But don't worry-we're all Y2K ready.
lamprey_65
(11/12/99; 14:48:44MDT - Msg ID:19015)
Executive Order 11110 Link
Discusson on Kennedy and the Fed got me curious -- found this link.
http://www.vaix.net/~api/jfk.htm
The Stranger
(11/12/99; 14:39:34MDT - Msg ID:19014)
More Y2k
AEL - you need not look beyond this very day to find numerous references to y2k. Do I presume too much to suggest that surviving it has been a common motivation among gold investors these many months? Why sir, you yourself have posted on the subject in this *GOLD* forum, and copiously, I might add, at various times. You have in fact been labled a "doomer", have you not?
MK - as usual, you make perfect sense. But regardless of how y2k plays out, once its uncertainties have lifted, it will be water under the bridge as far as investors are concerned. If it was a reason to buy gold beforehand, I see no reason why it should not be a reason to sell afterwards. After all, there is not much one can purchase with gold anymore, and as a long term investment, it has been just plain awful.
Townie. You raise a very valid point. I clearly do NOT understand the worldwide supply and demand dynamics for gold. What I concern myself with here may well be a tempest in a teapot. I defer to your obvious greater knowledge on this issue and thank you for the reassurance.
Cavan Man - you flatter me again my friend. Thanks for your insight and for your friendship.
P.S. to AEL - I always seem to come off like some kind of flaming jerk. Don't take offense at me. I enjoy your posts just as I enjoy the debate. You are nobody's fool, my friend, and that is obvious.
All - Please do not misinterpret anything I have said in this post. I am an ardent bull on gold and have been all year. My reasons are sprinkled liberally throughout the archives.
Cavan Man
(11/12/99; 13:48:09MDT - Msg ID:19013)
JCS 19000
Thanks for that lead. All should listen.
We could indeed be starting over. However, I do not accept the "end of the world" refrain from many. Thanks again.
Canuck Gold
(11/12/99; 13:37:38MDT - Msg ID:19012)
Down to $290, right on cue
Well, wasn't that predictable. Spot gold tanked almost $3 just before the close. I've never really looked at the options and futures markets as anything other than gambling. The downward movement of gold around the London OTC options close and today's close has really just confirmed that opinion. The option sellers must be gambling that the options won't be exercised. Taking up TCs earlier offer, I'd like someone to give a thorough explanation as to how the price can be manoeuvred at will like that and why it's done, other than the obvious. There must be drawbacks to an operation of this kind. I can see that anyone wanting to buy can anticipate what's going to happen and holds off while the price drops. But what's to stop anyone from exercising their options anyway? If there is a real conviction that gold will soon be much higher, why not hang in there and apply more pressure?
CG
TownCrier
(11/12/99; 13:17:34MDT - Msg ID:19011)
Russian rouble in search of a symbol
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/europe/newsid_515000/515967.stm
The BBC says "all that glisters is not gold," citing the rouble coin. Har, har.
A group of journalist and designers have noticed that such "stable" currencies such as the dollar, pound, euro, or yen have symbols ($, £, €, ¥) and feel that the confidence in the rouble would increase if it had one, too. Good luck.
In the last eight years, the rouble has lost 99.996 percent of its purchasing power. (That's not hyperbole, folks, that's the cited figure!)
Raining on the parade (400 entries have already been submitted for the contest) the English-language Moscow Times newspaper said in an editorial that the search for a symbol was "one of the few bad ideas that isn't state-sponsored. In a country where citizens have been repeatedly bankrupted by their government's feckless economic policies, an open-armed endorsement of a saviour symbol would be grotesque."
The Russian Central Bank is not overly optimistic about the results, either. A spokesman said, "We don't expect it to make the rouble a serious currency. Mongolia has a currency sign, but I don't see that it's done much for their economy."
In the best one yet, political analyst Boris Kagarlitsky suggested, "We should use a dollar sign with a footnote at the bottom that says, 'This is not a US dollar'." Hey Boris, that's what we're already using in America...sans footnote.
The Tower suggests either ?™ or else != or maybe Ø
TownCrier
(11/12/99; 12:49:25MDT - Msg ID:19010)
China may shut down banks and cash machines to avoid Y2K troubles
http://sg.dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/business/article.html?s=singapore/headlines/991108/business/afp/China_may_shut_down_banks_and_cash_machines_to_avoid_Y2K_troubles.html
"We're closing the banks on December 31 to facilitate year-end accounting and we're closing the ATM (automatic teller machines) to conduct final testing on them that day, not because we're scared of a bank run." --Chen Jing, director general of the PBOC's department of payment, science and technology, commenting on the Central Bank's proposal which is awaiting government approval.
Reuters reports that some of China's computer networks malfunctioned on 9/9/99. Now why didn't we hear about that two months ago? The news reports at the time said everything was fine.
USAGOLD
(11/12/99; 12:45:05MDT - Msg ID:19009)
Northie....Good Idea...
I'll give him a call. No promises. Last time I talked to him was during the Ashanti thing and not much has happened since, but maybe he'll have something for us.
NORTH OF 49
(11/12/99; 12:42:33MDT - Msg ID:19008)
Sir MK, for those of us suffering from FOA/A withdrawal
what are the chances of a "Mr. Insider" update?
No49
YGM
(11/12/99; 12:32:26MDT - Msg ID:19007)
One would do well to backread before posting
Arem
I see you have your answer...YGM
AEL
(11/12/99; 12:27:52MDT - Msg ID:19006)
stranger: no comprende
"the prospect of gold which has been slowly accumulated over
many months and years suddenly being dumped on the market by disappointed chicken littles..."
....... ??? those who slowly accumulate gold are those who are acting on long-term fundamentals (i.e. the strong hands, unwilling to sell out under transient pressure), not Y2K reactionaries, right? What would be suddenly dumped would be gold that was bought in a panic before the rollover by chicken littles, right? I could not understand your argument.
YGM
(11/12/99; 12:26:33MDT - Msg ID:19005)
AREM
There is a Link
If only I can find it. I have put in a request for a friend to find it for you also. It dealt w/ both Kennedy and Lincolns' efforts to put the US on a Silver Standard. Kennedy actually had a new Silver backed Bank note printed and ready for circulation prior to his death. Someone else might remember such a webpage??..............YGM
USAGOLD
(11/12/99; 12:12:07MDT - Msg ID:19004)
Stranger...
I'll throw one at you that I decided not to put in Today's report that may cause you even more consternation:
As I wrote the report today and read The Street.com article on the LatAm possibilities a thought occurred to me -- "What if Latin American countries in debt up to their eyeballs to the international banks used Y2K as an excuse to renege on their interest and/or debt payments?" We all know how tenuous the situation is with Brady bonds, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, et al. I've always thought that though Y2K itself could be problem, we could have the ancillary problem of others, both here and abroad, using Y2K as an excuse to play out some long term problems in our economy like the stock market bubble, and simmering animosities in places like Latin America, and blame it conveniently on Y2K.
In other words: "Y2K made me do it!"
I could just envision Alan Greenspan appearing before Congress to explain a stock or bond market collapse by saying:
"Though we foresaw some of the complications with Y2K itself, we did not foresee that certain nations and institutions would take advantage of Y2K to further their own agendas."
Food for thought.
Gold Power
(11/12/99; 12:11:30MDT - Msg ID:19003)
Kennedy & Federal Reserve
Arem,
I don't know that I buy the theory, but the argument is that Kennedy began printing U.S. Notes. I have seen a picture of one -- a $5.
These were different than Federal Reserve Notes, especially in that the Federal Reserve did not collect interest on them.
And so, the theory goes, the Fed had Kennedy shot for his intransigence.
Of something like that. I don't want to accuse anyone on this forum of believing this. This is just as I have heard the argument expressed.
Gold Power
JCS
(11/12/99; 12:08:01MDT - Msg ID:19002)
AREM (11/12/99; 11:46:10MDT - Msg ID:18998)
from: www.prolognet.qc.ca/clyde/pres.htm
"Both Abraham Lincoln and John F. Kennedy were assinated while they held the high office of President of the United States. Both of these former presidents had also created their own money system to run the United States while they were in office is this just a coincidence?
Why assassinate a President? Why must everything be kept so covered up? What are they trying to hide from the American people?
The facts will speak for themselves.
Abraham Lincoln
During the Civil War (from 1861-1865), President Lincoln needed money to finance the War from the North. The Bankers were going to charge him 24% to 36% interest. Lincoln was horrified and went away greatly distressed, for he was a man of principle and would not think of plunging his beloved
country into a debt that the country would find impossible to pay back.
Eventually President Lincoln was advised to get Congress to pass a law authorizing the printing of full legal tender Treasury notes to pay for the War effort. Lincoln recognized the great benefits of this issue. At one point hi wrote:
"... (we) gave the people of this Republic the greatest blessing they have ever had -their own paper money to pay their own debts..."
The Treasury notes were printed with green ink on the back, so the people called them "Greenbacks".
Lincoln printed 400 million dollars worth of Greenbacks (the exact amount being $449,338,902), money that he delegated to be created, a bebt-free and interest-free money to finance the War. It served as legal tender for all debts, public and private. He printed it, paid it to the soldiers, to the U.S.
Civil Service empoyees, and bought supplies for war.
Shortly after that happened, "The London Times" printed the following: "if that mischievous financial policy, which had its origin in the North American Republic, should become indurated down to a fixture, then that Government will furnish its own money without cost. It will pay off debts and be without a debt. It will have all the money necessary to carry on its commerce. It will become prosperous beyond precedent in th history of the civilized governments of the world. The brains and the wealth of all countries will go to North America. That government must be destroyed, or
it will destroy every monarchy on the globe."
The Bankers obviously understood. The only thing, I repeat, the only thing that is a threat to their power is sovereign governments printing interest-free and debt-free paper money. They know it would break the power of the international Bankers.
In retaliation
After this was published in "The London Times", the British Government, which was controlled by the London and other European Bankers, moved to support the Confederate South, hoping to defeat Lincoln and the Union, and destroy this government which they said had to be destroyed.
They were stopped by two things.
First, Lincoln knew the British people, and he knew that Britain would not support slavery, so hi issued the Emancipation Proclamation, which declared that slavery in the United States was abolished. At this point, the London Bankers could not openly support the Confederacy because the
British people simply would not stand for their country supporting slavery.
Second, the Czar of Russia sent a portion of the Russian navy to the United states with orders that its admiral would operate under the command of Abraham Lincoln. These ships of the Russian navy then became a threat to the ships of the British navy which had intended to break the blockade
and help the South.
The North won the War, and the Union was preserved. America remained as one nation.
Of course, the Bankers were not going to give in that easy, for they were determined to put an end to Lincoln's interest-free, debt-free Greenbacks. He was assassinated by an agent of the Bankers shortly after the War ended.
Thereafter, Congress revoked the Greenback Law and enacted, in its place, the National Banking Act. The national banks were to be privately owned and the national bank notes they issued were to be interest-bearing. The Act also provided that the Greenbacks should be retired from circulation as soon as they came back to the Treasury in payment of
taxes.
In 1972, the United States Treasury Department was asked to compute the amount of interest that would have been paid if that 400 million dollars would have been borrowed at interest instead of being issued by Abraham Lincoln. They did some computations, and a few weeks later, the United
States Treasury Department said the United States Government saved 4 billion dollars in interest because Lincoln had created his own money. So you can about imagine how much the Government has paid and how much we owe solely on the basis of interest.
The Federal Reserve Act
There were changes in the money and banking laws for the next fifty years. Finally, in 1913, the Bankers were able to get their Federal Reserve Act passed through Congress which replaced the National Banking Act that had earlier replaced the Greenback Law. If the Government would have continued the policy of Abraham Lincoln, the warnings given in "The London Times" would have come to pass. America would be a debt-free nation, the most prosperous in the world. And the brains and the wealth of the world would have come to America.
But with this Federal Reserve Act being passed, Congress gave up its power to create its own money that it was given in the United States Constitution, and gave this power over to private Bankers who called themselves the Federal Reserve. The Bankers had achieved their ultimate goal, for now the United States operated under a central bank that was privately owned. They now had the power to run the country by controlling the creation of the money, and were free to charge the interest they so desired.
As Mayer Anselm Rothschild once said: "Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation, and I care not who makes its laws..."
John F. Kennedy
No United States president since Abraham Lincoln dared to go against the system and create his own money, as many of these so-called elected presidents were actually only nstruments or puppets of the Bankers. That is until President John F. Kennedy came into office.
President Kennedy was not afraid to "buck the system", for he understood how the Federal Reserve System was being used to destroy the United States. As a just and honorable
man, he could not tolerate such a system, for it smelled corruption from A to Z. Certainly he must have known about the Greenbacks which Abraham Lincoln created when he was in
office.
On June 4th, 1963, President Kennedy signed a presidential document, called Executive Order 11110, which further amended Executive order 10289 of September 19th, 1951. This gave Kennedy, as President of the United States, legal clearance to create his own money to run the country, money that would belong to the people, an interest and debt-free
money. He had printed United States Notes, completely ignoring the Federal Reserve Notes from the private banks of the Federal Reserve.
Our records show that Kennedy issued $4,292,893,825 of cash money. It was perfectly obvious that Kennedy was out to undermine the Federal Reserve System of the United States.
But it was only a few months later, in November of 1963, that the world received the shocking news of President Kennedy's assassination. No reason was given, of course, for
anyone wanting to commit such an atrocious crime. But for those who knew anything about money and banking, it did not take long to put the pieces of the puzzle together. For surely, President Kennedy must have had it in mind to repeal the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, and return back to the United States Congress the power to create its own money.
It is interesting to note that, only one day after Kennedy's assassination, all the United States notes which Kennedy had issued were called out of circulation. Was this through an executive order of the newly-installed president, Lyndon B. Johnson? Or was he one of their instruments? At any rate, all of the money President Kennedy had created was destroyed. And not a word was said to the American people.
TownCrier
(11/12/99; 12:04:53MDT - Msg ID:19001)
Friday "Free-for-All"
There is a sense in The Tower that there are a handful of lurkers in shadows who have never posted, but have a burning gold-related question they would like to see answered. Rather than leave things to chance, let's hear those questions, and see how quickly others at this table or in the shadows can rise to the occasion with an answer.
Your password and a questionmark are all that's required. Oh, yeah...AND a burning curiosity about gold, fiat currency, etc.
JCS
(11/12/99; 11:51:49MDT - Msg ID:19000)
Y2K
Anyone interested may want to go to the following site:
www.audiocentral.com
select "Radio Shows", then select "McAlveny Intelligence Report". If you don't have RealPlayer installed on your computer there's a free download at the site. Then listen to the "Y2K Endgame" portion which was put up at the site on Nov. 8th. If that doesn't wake you up to Y2K then nothing will. It covers the last symposium on Y2K in which most attendees were technicians and the presenters were from government agencies. Its bigger than they are telling everyone. If for no other reason, I was stunned to learn that at midnight on Dec. 31, approximately 200,000 computer viruses will be sent out over the internet to try and corrupt as much as possible of what's working. These viruses are originating from locations in Africa. The Govt. knows all about it but the mainstream media isn't reporting it--mostly on orders from Clinton so that a panic doesn't start. What about Jan. 1 when there's no water and sewer in NYC, and 8 million people are looking for the first working toilet in sight, or trying to find a bottle of spring water. And they think no panic will occur?
It's gonna be a mess and IMO it won't be a flash in the pan for the PM's.
TownCrier
(11/12/99; 11:48:40MDT - Msg ID:18999)
The Stranger, I give you....The World!
Your initial worry:
"If people are buying PMs because of y2k, we are in a heep o' trouble. ...those who are buying gold now will be ready to sell before Spring...gold...suddenly being dumped on the market..."
Inititially, I'd say you only need a gentle reminder of the bigger fundamental picture to allay your initial concern, but you do, in fact, cover the bases, and conclude on target:
"I hope all of us here have the wisdom to understand the broader rationale for owning gold in the present environment. If so, y2k will come and go and none of us will have sold."
However, to help strengthen your own argument, the consensus here in The Tower is that you should still be given a gentle reminder that the fundamentals are even broader and stronger to the point that any such post-Y2K dishording would have a temporary if not completely minimal effect. If you look beyond North America, your fears rapidly find cause to disolve into the mist. On the global scale, America is small potatoes when it comes to competitors for this rare and precious financial resource. Here are some general gold demand trends for any typical year...
India and Pakistan together approximately DOUBLE the U.S. offtake. Northeast Asia equals or exceeds the US offtake. Southeast Asia equals or exceeds the US demand. The Middle-East equals or exceeds the US offtake. Turkey routinely takes about half of the amount demanded in the US. Europe takes approximately the same as the US. Throw in Japan, Latin America, our friends DownUnder...well, you get the drift. There are many strong hands acquiring for many years for long-term economic reasons...before Y2K was a buzz word. Even assuming a best-case non-event Y2K scenario, the fundamental reasons for acquisition among these many strong hands worldwide won't have changed with the passing of a few months. The world's supply of new production vs. demand will still remain in its long-term pattern of supply deficit.
So take courage, my good man. It's a wide world after all.
AREM
(11/12/99; 11:46:10MDT - Msg ID:18998)
To JCS (11/12/99; 07:23:20MDT - Msg ID:18976)
You posted the following regarding the Federal Reserve:
*****I agree with all that the article(s) say, and with your point regarding the Fed. If "We The People" knew the real story it could bring about the Second Revolutionary War. However, in order to understand the size and power of what we are dealing with, consider that two US Presidents, Lincoln and Kennedy, went against them and we all know what happened to them.
Can you supply references regarding action taken by Lincoln and Kennedy to oppose the Federal Reserve System?
USAGOLD
(11/12/99; 11:41:14MDT - Msg ID:18997)
Repost Helvetias and Confederatios
We have had such a strong response to the Helvetia/Confederatio offer that I thought I would put it up again. We will be in the office today until 5pm MST. Gold just went level on the day from over $2.50 down.......The Options Expiry Effect might be over.
----------
As previously posted:
Just by co-incidence we are making an offer in the upcoming News & Views: For every 25
Helvetia's (selling today for $66), we offer the right but not the obligation (for all our option
"crazies" out there) to purchase 5 of the older Confederatios (1883-1896) at $74 today. We have
never been able to assemble enough Confederatios (a very attractive coin) to make a general
public offer and lucked into this group just yesterday. The Confederatio supply is very limited
thus the rationing system. The weight of these coins is .1867 net fine gold. The Helvetias, a very
popular item in their own right, were minted from 1896 - 1935.
If anyone has an interest before this goes to our mailing list, call the office and talk to either me
or George Cooper. Marie can help you too if you like as well.
The Confederatio is named so for the formation of the modern Swiss state assembled from the
confederation of the 25 Cantons.
As always, prices subject to change -- hopefully much higher (as the price rises.)
---------------
Some History as it appears in the upcoming December News & Views -- another 12 pager that features detailed excerpts from Leann Baker's study titled "A New Millennium Gold Rush: Bull Market Is Just Beginning". N & V is now at the printer -- hoping to have it in the mail by end of next week. If you are new to USAGOLD and would like to receive a complimentary issue of News & Views, please click on INFO PACKET above.
Some History:
Owing to its central location among the great powers of Europe, Switzerland for centuries has been the center for commerce and banking. It is famous for its role in the gold market where the 'gnomes of Zurich’ are said to hold much influence in gold's financial uses.
Switzerland is synonymous with banking and synonymous with the gold trade. It made its first splash in the world gold market by convincing South Africa that they would be better merchants for its gold than London. Then Russia quickly jumped aboard the Swiss gold train. Zurich is said to be the largest dealer of physical gold bullion in world, shipping to all corners of the globe. Noted gold authority, Timothy Green says, "Gold is as much a part of Switzerland as the Alps and skiing."
Many individuals in Europe and elsewhere who do not trust their own governments trust the Swiss to handle their money. As a result, much of the world's privately held gold is stored secretly in Swiss vaults. Now you can own a part of the Swiss gold legacy and Republican history with these intriguing gold coins. The "Confederatio" on the older of the two coins refers to the assemblage of the twenty five Cantons shown on the map above into the modern Swiss State.
---------
We have had several requests to buy the Confederatio only but they are in limited supply. We can only offer them per the option as outlined above.
Please call for today's prices: 1-800-869-5115. Speak with George, Marie or myself.
Thanks. MK
JLV
(11/12/99; 11:34:46MDT - Msg ID:18996)
Back up
Kitco charts are back up.
Journeyman
(11/12/99; 11:27:16MDT - Msg ID:18995)
Joe Six-pack won't effect market much
Most of the rest of the world is oblivious to Y2K, even
more so than silly Americans. Their buying won't reverse,
and as we know, there's no concerted buying by Joe sixpac,
and this coin market, as pointed out elsewhere, isn't what's
driving the price of gold these days anyway, particularly
because it's such a small amount of even the physical that's
being actually traded. ...... Regards, Journeyman
megatron
(11/12/99; 11:16:30MDT - Msg ID:18994)
to;simply me
I think my use of this analogy, really, masks my ignorance about how this entire paper buy/sell/comex works. I do observe similarties in the waveforms, but maybe all commodities work like this? I don't know. The only way I can rationalize that kind of response time is with something I'm familiar with. How can a natural buy/sell market flatline like that instantly? I bet there is someone who posts here who knows the way data is published from these trades. I certainly don't. All I know is that I've been watching kitco for 2 years and it never looked like that until a few weeks ago! After I sent that post I read an article in Stocks and Commodoties about a program treats price movements like waveforms and uses fourier analysis to derive the underlying fundamental freq. Funny huh?
RossL
(11/12/99; 11:16:29MDT - Msg ID:18993)
Y2K
The Stranger says:
"If people are buying PMs because of y2k, we are in a heep o' trouble. Even if the worst y2k worryworts are right about what is coming (and I
don't believe they are), those who are buying gold now will be ready to sell before Spring."
If the worst y2k worryworts are right, gold will be $2000 by spring. Yaaaa!
Cavan Man
(11/12/99; 11:14:03MDT - Msg ID:18992)
To: The Stranger (aka "the gentle giant)
The scenario you describe could be an opportunity to sell at an interim top in the market due to Y2K and then, to buy yet again as the price drops.
On the other hand; my buying is done. In fact, though my children are very young, I believe my procurement of the yellow metal at bargain prices has enabled me ALREADY to afford them with the educational resources I can only dream of. This, in addition to building a capital base from which to launch a business at some future date should I so desire. In short, the foundation for my children is complete and if it were not for Knights like yourself and FOA (sorry Phaedrus), I would not even be lurking here.
I too tire of the negative tone here and at other forums but, it comes with the territory and is I think a sign of the times.
Your counsel is very wise and I hope you are right about Y2K although my sense is we are in for at least a short stretch of bad road. Thank you for the wisdom you share with all here gathered.
TownCrier
(11/12/99; 11:00:45MDT - Msg ID:18991)
U.S. Productivity Growth Jumps
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/991112/productivi_1.html
The Labor Department reports that worker productivity, amount of output per work-hour, rose at a 4.2 percent annual rate for the third-quarter (July through September), while the cost per unit of labor rose by only 0.6 percent.
Productivity registered its largest quarterly increase since Q-1 1998 (4.4%). Unit labor costs logged their lowest gain all year.
Seems that Americans are working harder and harder for only small adjustments to their paper compensation. Working too hard to pause and think about this for a minute?
THX-1138
(11/12/99; 10:55:06MDT - Msg ID:18990)
Re: The Stranger
You say the following:
If people are buying PMs because of y2k, we are in a heep o' trouble. Even if the worst y2k worryworts are right about what is coming (and I don't believe they are), those who are buying gold now will be ready to sell before Spring.
.....
Again, y2k represents more of a threat to goldbugs than it does an opportunity.
*********
I am going to have to disagree with you there. If Y2K turns out to be just a bump in the road, then those who bought gold with weak hands and didn't research the market fundimentals will be providing REAL goldbugs with a buying opportunity. These poor suckers will sell gold for a few measely paper dollar gains, and cause the price to fall again. Real goldbugs will then be able to dump all the stored up paper currency they saved for Y2K and buy real assets with it.
The Stranger
(11/12/99; 10:38:08MDT - Msg ID:18989)
The Third Man
I had just read USAGold's post and then started reading HLime's post when I got so depressed, I couldn't finish.
If people are buying PMs because of y2k, we are in a heep o' trouble. Even if the worst y2k worryworts are right about what is coming (and I don't believe they are), those who are buying gold now will be ready to sell before Spring.
I cannot emphasize enough. Buying any investment to circumvent any overhyped short term event is a fools game. If you are smart, you will do your homework, understand the macro forces at work in the gold market and ignore y2k altogether.
Again, y2k represents more of a threat to goldbugs than it does an opportunity. Failing some New Year calamity, it presents us with the prospect of gold which has been slowly accumulated over many months and years suddenly being dumped on the market by disappointed chicken littles.
I suppose there will always be goldbugs who variously pin their dreams on one hoped-for disaster after another. That is unfortunate. A lifetime of success at investing requires a far less simplistic approach.
I hope all of us here have the wisdom to understand the broader rationale for owning gold in the present environment. If so, y2k will come and go and none of us will have sold.
TownCrier
(11/12/99; 10:20:56MDT - Msg ID:18988)
Fed adds $5.995 bln temporary reserves to banking system thru 6-day fixed tri-party repurchase agreements
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/991112/p1.html
Analysts were expecting a small repurchase operation of $1 billion to $2 billion, saying Monday would probably feel some pressure and they wouldn't want to get behind.
John Galt
(11/12/99; 10:12:34MDT - Msg ID:18987)
Kitco offline due to ISP router recursion (Videotron)
207.253.240.117 & 150 like talking to each other.
YGM
(11/12/99; 10:10:35MDT - Msg ID:18986)
Jay Taylors Latest Comments.
http://www.tfc.com/syndication/TFC/taylor.html
By Jay Taylor,
Taylor Hard Money Advisors, Inc.
Posted Thursday, November 11, 1999 at 09:06 AM EST
The gold markets settled back a bit this week, closing at around $290, which I believe is a significant level for many of the short sellers. From a technical viewpoint, the backing and filling actions by gold since the skyrocketing rise one month about one month ago has to be viewed as constructive, even if it is being manipulated downward by the Central Banks, As Ted Arnold has said it was.
Actually, if we are in fact in the early stages of a bull market in gold, a slow orderly one will be better than one that skyrockets several hundred dollars. In fact a slow and orderly bull market in gold is the best scenario from my viewpoint because it will give us more time to do our homework with respect to junior mining stocks.
Yet, if the shortage of gold production to meet demand remains at levels we have discussed in the recent past, that is in 100 to 150 tonne per month range, then we should be very close to a serious breakout in the price of gold. Indeed this past week, a gold analyst with J Aaron, a subsidiary of Goldman Sachs (AKA Hannibal Lector) said he expected gold to rise to $375 during 2000. I would hope to see a much higher price than that, but a $350 to $375 price would certainly breath life into our junior mining sector and if it took place next year as the first year of a 5 or 10 year bull market in gold, we would be delighted.
So, for the moment the gold market appears to be orderly. But according to some news this past week, I am not so sure it can remain a market in which the price rises slowly. As John Brimlow, a frequent contributor to Lemetropolecafe.com noted this past week, lending rates for gold are now indicating some big problems for those who have shorted the yellow metal. Specifically, John notes that the one-month rate was only 0.99% while the two-month yield was 2.71%. It is very unusual to see such a large jump in the rates over time like this and the 2.71% for two month through 2.64% for one year is also an unusually high rate. What this weird gold yield curve suggests is that the bullion banks are not willing to lend beyond one month. Furthermore, Brimlow mentioned that rumors this week in New York, at the Comex, has several bullion banking departments shutting down their operations at the end of the year. The lack of willingness to lend out more than one month would tend to support these rumors. Brimlow suggests that if some mining companies should reconsider rolling their short positions now because come the beginning of 2000, there just may not be anyone there to roll these gold loans over. Brimlow concludes his remarks by saying that this "constitutes a wonderful new millennium present to the friends of gold, and a very unwelcome one to the Bullion Banks.
schippi
(11/12/99; 09:32:38MDT - Msg ID:18985)
XAU & HUI morning chart
http://www.SelectSectors.com/xauhui.gif
beesting
(11/12/99; 09:31:08MDT - Msg ID:18984)
Try this link on last post.
http://www.kitco.com/_a/news/2952.htm
1 billion people in China can now legally own silver....beesting
beesting
(11/12/99; 09:18:35MDT - Msg ID:18983)
Ban to be lifted on silver trade-withen China only...GOLD TO FOLLOW!
http://www.kitco.com/_a/2952.htm
Source: South China Morning Post Nov.12,1999.
Where silver goes Gold will follow-liberalising Gold markets and allowing individuals to own it would not be far away....beesting
YGM
(11/12/99; 09:17:20MDT - Msg ID:18982)
NORFED Links
http://www.norfed.com/links.htm
National Organization for the Repeal of the
Federal Reserve Act and the Internal Revenue Code.
***Many Good Links Here.
USAGOLD
(11/12/99; 09:14:25MDT - Msg ID:18981)
Today's Gold Market Report: "Massive" Y2K Breakdown In Latin America Possible/ Threatens Debt Payments
MARKET REPORT(11/12/99): Gold took a hit yesterday and early today
ahead of option expiry. The market, as reported here yesterday, has a
tendency to tank just before options expire. Call exposure is at the
$300 and $290 levels, according to Bridge News............The dollar is
strong today with the euro and pound being the hardest hit. The euro is
back in the $1.03 range.............Reuters reports London Bullion
Market Association gold turnover the highest since February at 37
million ounces daily -- that represents about half the world's mine
production trading daily in foggy, old Londontown.............Reuters
also reports that disgruntled Ashanti investors headquartered on the
Isle of Man have called for the resignation of the Ghana mining
company's CEO, Sam Jonah, and want an extraordinary general shareholder
meeting to determine what is going on at the troubled company. Ashanti's
stock and fortunes tumbled when the price of gold spiked in
October...........From The Street.com's Scott Grimberg: "...among
foreign investors in Latin America, Y2K fears persist. Despite rallies
in Latin American bond and equity markets, fund flows have remained low
and, in some cases, turned into outflows in anticipation of Y2K. The
fear is Latin American countries are unprepared for the turn of the
millennium and will face massive computer and telephone failures, as
well as electricity outages. The combination, of course, could cause
debt payments and business activity to grind to a halt, not to mention
urban unrest -- one of the great turn-of-the-century fears."............
Please see the Y2K Bulletin which follows if you are planning to
purchase gold before the date rollover..............That's it for today,
fellow goldmeisters. We'll see what happens as we approach options'
expiration later in the day. Have a nice weekend. See you here, Monday.
Bulletin
Last Minute Y2K Gold Buyers
December 10,1999 Deadline
We are rushing the December issue of News & Views to you in order to
provide the maximum amount of time to complete last minute Y2K
preparations. To accommodate your year-end needs, we have just completed
special arrangements with our clearing houses for both pre-1933 European
gold coins and bullion gold and silver coins to deliver your orders as
quickly as possible.
Our goal is get your metal to you before the December 31,1999 rollover,
but in order to do that you must contact us before 12/10/99 and place
your order. Orders will be taken under certain strict terms and
conditions which will be outlined when you call. Orders are restricted
to certain approved items only.
The longer you wait, the greater the chances of your delivery date
stretching into January. Don't forget on top of everything else we will
be dealing with the Christmas postal rush. Though many of you are
already prepared, we realize that some may want to make last minute
adjustments and additions. Those of you who have yet to make your Y2K
gold purchase, this is your final opportunity before the clocks clicks
over to Year 2000.
Call 1-800-869-5115 for assistance.
Please call 800-869-5115 (Ask for Mary Conway) if you have an
interest in receiving a trial subscription to our widely read
newsletter, News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary and Analysis on
the Economy and Precious Metals. Or you can go to our ORDER FORM
and submit your request by E-Mail. You will also receive our
introductory packet on investing in gold.
WilloTheWarthog
(11/12/99; 09:01:25MDT - Msg ID:18980)
Bubble Economy
It's interesting to see that economists of both conservative and liberal points of view are predicting a stock market "correction"
Warren Buffet's latest:
http://www.pathfinder.com/fortune/1999/11/22/buf.html
More from John Kenneth Galbraith:
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/view/view_6.htm
http://www.smh.com.au/news/9810/03/text/features4.html
http://www.businesstoday.com/topstories/galbraith101598.htm
William A. Fleckenstein:
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/insight/contrarian/1005.html
I know several people who have liquidated substantial long-term positions in the US markets during the last few weeks, putting their money into cash. Of course, this could be offset by the reported foreign money coming in. It would be interesting to know what percentage of the daily volume in US markets is in each of these categories vs. short-term specs.
Sorry if any of these are reposts.
YGM
(11/12/99; 08:47:28MDT - Msg ID:18979)
The Believer & Harry Lime
A GATA Flag for Golds' Freedom Fighters?
Great Link, I wish more finds like that were posted for us all. Thamks......YGM
Harry--I burn winter fuel in summer by adding 2 liters of 2 cycle mix oil to every 100 gals deisel. Also can use Power Steering fluid as an additive to winter or summer deisel. Really smooths out the tired old engines. 1/2 liter for 100 gals. Mining will definately not have preference during rationing, IMO either. Wish I had an alternative flag to fly. Maybe we could get a flag made like the GATA print by Alain Despert. A flag with no borders???
..........YGM
Go GOLD & GO GATA.-----Somebody bring the "Head of The Fed on a Plate" to Berger/Montague.
WilloTheWarthog
(11/12/99; 08:34:27MDT - Msg ID:18978)
"Another example of the financial mind's unfailing commitment to idiocy."
http://www.worldpaper.com/May98/galbrath.html
Financing the Party-Interview with John Kenneth Galbraith May 1998
WorldPaper. Since you last revised The Affluent Society, there have been enormous economic
changes, one of which is the size and reach of consumer debt. Do you still see the
advertising-driven creation of need as the primary cause of consumer debt expansion, or
have new factors supplanted it?
A. I don't accept the suggestion that advertising alone creates the credit culture, but the
role of advertising in the modern economy has increased since I wrote that book. Nobody
would be such an idiot as to produce a new product without considering whether he or she
could create a market for it. The two go together. You create the product, then you create
the want. You make a different product, then you persuade people that it is better than the
old product and should be bought. The production and persuasion go hand in hand.
WP. Has so-called globalization changed things?
A. This has not been changed by globalization. Where the money to buy is available, there
goes the persuasion. This isn't important in the darker parts of Africa or rural India because
there's no point in persuading people who have nothing to offer in the way of money. But,
wherever there is affluence, there is persuasion around the world. The commitment to the
belief that everything is being changed by globalization must be resisted-even by your
newspaper!
WP. Given the enormous gaps between the haves and have nots, both in the US and
worldwide, can the proliferation of credit cards be viewed as a "social safety valve" that
gives the poor some sense of belonging to the market economy?
A. No. It can be regretted, because it introduces a note of insecurity both into the lives of
people and into the economy. If we have a recession or a depression now, this enormous
production of credit cards is going to lead to a drastic reduction in demand and intensify the
depression because there will be a great increase in personal bankruptcies and that will be
the escape from the credit card oppression. But the credit card is not something in and of
itself; it goes along with this whole process of persuasion.
WP. Credit today is frequently not backed by tangible assets, but by virtual collateral in the
form of ideas and information. Does this concern you?
A. It is, in fact, pure credit. This is something that always happens in a boom economy.
People attribute to the future the possibility of payment and repayment based on the mood
of the times. The thing that should always cause you to take refuge is when people say:
"This is a brave new world; something that's different from anything in the past." In fact,
ever since the great "Tulip Mania"-the wild tulip speculation in Holland-of 1637, about every
30 years there's been a disastrous boom of some sort or other. A well established feature
for at least the past 300 years of the market system is the recurrence of speculative
excess, speculative optimism, and then a crack-up. We could well be in such a situation at
the present time.
WP. What do you see as the consequences of credit card companies going after younger
and younger customers?
A. I look at that trend with very great interest. It is another example of the financial mind's
unfailing commitment to idiocy. It's something that we've experienced time and again.
There are other manifestations of it in these great mergers that are taking place. No two
words should ever give you greater sense of concern than any reference to "financial
genius." It is a well established form of insanity.
The Invisible Hand
(11/12/99; 07:46:06MDT - Msg ID:18977)
Be happy, gold is down $2.90
The options will expire worthless at 2:30 pm (that's New York time) and then ... boom.
JCS
(11/12/99; 07:23:20MDT - Msg ID:18976)
The Believer (11/12/99; 05:07:02MDT - Msg ID:18971)
I agree with all that the article(s) say, and with your point regarding the Fed. If "We The People" knew the real story it could bring about the Second Revolutionary War. However, in order to understand the size and power of what we are dealing with, consider that two US Presidents, Lincoln and Kennedy, went against them and we all know what happened to them.
The Invisible Hand
(11/12/99; 07:17:52MDT - Msg ID:18975)
See you at 2:30 pm
http://www.mrci.com/special/gold.htm
el St.One (10/27/99; 1:06:15MDT - Msg ID:17573) GOLD Options Special gold options link:
http://www.mrci.com/special/gold.htm On 9/28/99, somebody bought approximately 60,000 December gold
390 calls. On 10/21/99, there are approximately 162,692 Dec calls between the 260 and 400 strike prices.
These options all expire on 11/12/99. Gold's implied volatility has traded at all-time highs over the last month and the current open interest is close to all-time highs.
Silver Tongue
(11/12/99; 06:00:28MDT - Msg ID:18974)
(No Subject)
It must be Friday. The sentiment at this site is somber. The messages are depressing. Come on folks, if you own physical gold you can still hold it just as you could two days ago when it seemed gold might rally to new highs for the year. My gold and silver still look the same and feel the same. When pessimism abounds that is when the rally in gold becomes imminent. Don't jump ship.
Temperatures forcast for 70s in our area. Smell the autumn and enjoy the hour.
Hipplebeck
(11/12/99; 05:29:40MDT - Msg ID:18973)
another observation
I've nooticed another thing which I'm wondering about.
Is Roosevelt being glorified these days?
I think I heard that he is going to be voted as the man of the century by someone.
I've also heard him referenced many times lately as a great man.
Maybe I'm being paranoid.
The Believer
(11/12/99; 05:17:19MDT - Msg ID:18972)
bad link
http://www.moneymaker.com/frb/
Sorry,bad link
if this one doesn't work copy and paste
www.moneymaker.com/frb/
The Believer
(11/12/99; 05:07:02MDT - Msg ID:18971)
YGM-a link to action against the Fed
www.cal-neva.com/frb
I hope everyone reads this report. There is action we can take to rid
our country and the world of the
biggest scam of all time.
Knights and Ladies of the round
table you are called to Arms!
Gaze no more at your golden treasure
passively waiting for truth and honesty!
The time has come! To Arms!
We shall prove anew the pen is mightier
than the sword of injustice.
Hipplebeck
(11/12/99; 05:03:04MDT - Msg ID:18970)
an observation
Even in this financial market where the POG is driven down and the stock hysteria is in full swing, I've noticed that the last two jumps in the price of gold and silver happened just after a small scare that there might be a little inflation. When the masses realize just how much hidden inflation there is now, and when it is no longer hidable, that is when we will see the control slip from the hands of the dastardly. When the millions of people in stocks get scared, we are going to see something unbelievable happen, just like FOA says.
Michael
HLime
(11/12/99; 04:25:48MDT - Msg ID:18969)
Thoughts from the frozen north
This week has been interesting. I have had to admit defeat at the hands of
the shyster bankers. They have won and I have lost. Time is getting short
for making final Y2K preparations and so I have had to start dishoarding
my silver stocks. I bought them over the years with the expectation of selling
them now at a much higher price to fund my preparations. I sell my bars and
rounds knowing that the above ground supply of Ag is a fraction of Au. Madness
is all I can say to describe the current price of Ag. If we have an economic
collapse what will the true value of Ag be?
I went to get two drums of +10 #2 diesel today at the bulk plant hear in town.
None to be had, someone had bought their last 3000 gallons and the local
refinery will not make anymore till spring. You snooze you loose. I guess I
will stockpile -15 #2 at the claim for next season, just means adding additives
to run the old John Deer in the summer heat. I fully expect fuel rationing next
year and gold mining is not going to be guvmint priority. Perhaps I can get a
better return on stored diesel, gas, and propane than I have gotten with silver.
I will need it anyway and who knows the availability/price next year. All the
low price means is that I will have less to take across the line, but is better to
buy the supplies now than to try to barter silver next year. I can not take the
chance of waiting a few more weeks for a better price.
I had a friend call me today to read a story from the student paper. The University
had called in the security police from Fort Wainright to help search a student
dorm for drugs. What ta hell are nazi helmeted jack boots doing on a campus?
Twenty five yeas ago when I was a student this action would of precipitated
numerous student protests. The student reporter did not even question this action.
Just as the shyster bankers have one, this is just proof that the elite have won in
their efforts to dumb down the next generation. If I interviewed every student on
campus I doubt that I would find one that could tell me the history the prohibition
of using military assets in civilian policing. Hell they probably think its cool.
There are many people on this and other forums that either pooh pooh Y2K or
question one's motives in hoping for the worst. Before taking up gold mining
as my profession I was an officer in the USAF and a programmer/DBA. I
have the background to know what is possible for next year. To this day I
can not believe that I once served this guvmint, but then it is not the same
guvmint that it was when I was young, dumb, and full of cum.
On the wall behind me is a Rebel battle flag and when the guvmint declares
marshall law I will fly it proudly above my cabin. I was born and raised a
Michigan Yankee. Just what has transpired in my lifetime to make me want
to fly that flag instead of the stars and stripes? Before any of you knee jerk
liberals try to stigmatize the rebel flag let me say I will fly it in rebellion to
the current guvmint, not in sympathy with part of the reason people fought for
it then. Anyone of any colour, race, or creed is welcome to fly it when the
time comes, all it takes is a little enlightenment. Perhaps Y2K will remove
the veil from your eyes.
A rather sourdough Harry today.
SteveH
(11/12/99; 03:00:06MDT - Msg ID:18968)
Dec gold now...
http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary5.html#anchor7062
$294.90.
Please see above link.
Snippet: Managers of gold mutual funds have not been reticent in their criticisms of Ashanti, Cambior and other heavily or imprudently hedged mining companies. Granting the validity of their complaints, they are not without some responsibility themselves for the problems recently plaguing gold investors, notably their own shareholders. As a group, gold fund managers are the principal professional investors in this sector. They have the required analytical skills and technical support. What is more, many of them understand both the monetary role of gold and the dangers of gold banking far better than the mining companies or even the bullion bankers. Yet many gold funds apparently bought the bear case for gold sufficiently to sprinkle their portfolios with a significant number of heavily hedged miners while failing to do very complete investigation or analysis of their hedge books. What is more, few gold funds with the authority to invest in gold bullion actually held any. Seeking the leverage traditionally associated with shares, they spurned bullion while failing to appreciate fully just how quickly ill-advised hedging could turn leverage against them.
***
Holtzman: you done did good.
YGM
(11/12/99; 01:15:49MDT - Msg ID:18967)
Another Excerpt From McFadden Speech
This Link "SHOULD" Be Read by All & Reposted Again & Again
THE UNITED STATES HAS BEEN RANSACKED
"The United States has been ransacked and pillaged. Our structures have been gutted and only the walls are left standing. While being perpetrated, everything the world would rake up to sell us was brought in here at our expense by the Fed until our markets were swamped with unneeded and unwanted imported goods priced far above their value and make to equal the dollar volume of our honest exports, and to kill or reduce our favorite balance of trade. As Agents of the foreign central banks the Fed try by every means in their power to reduce our favorable balance of trade. They act for their foreign principal and they accept fees from foreigners for acting against the best interests of these United States. Naturally there has been great competition among among foreigners for the favors of the Fed.
"What we need to do is to send the reserves of our National Banks home to the people who earned and produced them and who still own them and to the banks which were compelled to surrender them to predatory interests.
"Mr. Chairman, there is nothing like the Fed pool of confiscated bank deposits in the world. It is a public trough of American wealth in which the foreigners claim rights, equal to or greater than Americans. The Fed are the agents of the foreign central banks. They use our bank depositors' money for the benefit of their foreign principals. They barter the public credit of the United States Government and hire it our to foreigners at a profit to themselves.
"All this is done at the expense of the United States Government, and at a sickening loss to the American people. Only our great wealth enabled us to stand the drain of it as long as we did.
"We need to destroy the Fed wherein our national reserves are impounded for the benefit of the foreigners. "We need to save America for Americans.
SPURIOUS SECURITIES
"Mr. Chairman, when you hold a $10.00 Fed Note in your hand, you are holding apiece of paper which sooner or later is going to cost the United States Government $10.00 in gold (unless the Government is obliged to go off the gold standard). It is based on limburger cheese (reported to be in foreign warehouses) or in cans purported to contain peas (but may contain salt water instead), or horse meat, illicit drugs, bootleggers fancies, rags and bones from Soviet Russia (of which these United States imported over a million dollars worth last year), on wines whiskey, natural gas, goat and dog fur, garlic on the string, and Bombay ducks.
"If you like to have paper money- which is secured by such commodities- you have it in Fed Note. If you desire to obtain the thing of value upon which this paper currency is based, that is, the limburger cheese, the whiskey, the illicit drugs, or any of the other staples- you will have a very hard time finding them.
"Many of these worshipful commodities are in foreign Countries. Are you going to Germany to inspect her warehouses to see if the specified things of value are there? I think more, I do not think that you would find them there if you did go.
"On April 27, 1932, the Fed outfit sent $750,000 belonging to American bank depositors in gold to Germany. A week later another $300,000 in gold was shipped to Germany. About the middle of May $12,000,000 in gold was shipped to Germany by the Fed. Almost every week there is a shipment of gold to Germany. These shipments are not made for profit on the exchange since the German marks are blow parity with the dollar.
"Mr. Chairman, I believe that the National Bank depositors of these United States have a right to know what the Fed are doing with their money. There are millions of National Bank depositors in the Country who do not know that a percentage of every dollar they deposit in a Member Bank of the Fed goes automatically to American Agents of the foreign banks and that all their deposits can be paid away to foreigners without their knowledge or consent by the crooked machinery of the Fed and the questionable practices of the Fed.
YGM
(11/12/99; 01:02:27MDT - Msg ID:18966)
Exposure of Federal Reserve Corp. 1934 By Congressman McFadden
http://home.hiwaay.net/~becraft/mcfadden.html
****Excerpt****
Roosevelt and the International Bankers
"Roosevelt did what the International Bankers ordered him to do!
"Do not deceive yourself, Mr. Chairman, or permit yourself to be deceived by others into the belief that Roosevelt's dictatorship is in any way intended to benefit the people of the United States: he is preparing to sign on the dotted line! "He is preparing to cancel the war debts by fraud!
"He is preparing to internationalize this Country and to destroy our Constitution itself in order to keep the Fed intact as a money institution for foreigners. "Mr. Chairman, I see no reason why citizens of the United States should be terrorized into surrendering their property to the International Bankers who own and control the Fed. The statement that gold would be taken from its lawful owners if they did not voluntarily surrender it, to private interests, show that there is an anarchist in our Government.
"The statement that it is necessary for the people to give their gold- the only real money- to the banks in order to protect the currency, is a statement of calculated dishonesty!
"By his unlawful usurpation of power on the night of March 5, 1933, and by his proclamation, which in my opinion was in violation of the Constitution of the United States, Roosevelt divorced the currency of the United States from gold, and the United States currency is no longer protected by gold. It is therefore sheer dishonesty to say that the people's gold is needed to protect the currency.
"Roosevelt ordered the people to give their gold to private interests- that is, to banks, and he took control of the banks so that all the gold and gold values in them, or given into them, might be handed over to the predatory International Bankers who own and control the Fed.
"Roosevelt cast his lot with the usurers. "He agreed to save the corrupt and dishonest at the expense of the people of the United States.
"He took advantage of the people's confusion and weariness and spread the dragnet over the United States to capture everything of value that was left in it. He made a great haul for the International Bankers.
"The Prime Minister of England came here for money! He came here to collect cash!
"He came here with Fed Currency and other claims against the Fed which England had bought up in all parts of the world. And he has presented them for redemption in gold.
"Mr. Chairman, I am in favor of compelling the Fed to pay their own debts. I see no reason why the general public should be forced to pay the gambling debts of the International Bankers.
Roosevelt Seizes the Gold
"By his action in closing the banks of the United States, Roosevelt seized the gold value of forty billions or more of bank deposits in the United States banks. Those deposits were deposits of gold values. By his action he has rendered them payable to the depositors in paper only, if payable at all, and the paper money he proposes to pay out to bank depositors and to the people generally in lieu of their hard earned gold values in itself, and being based on nothing into which the people can convert it the said paper money is of negligible value altogether.
"It is the money of slaves, not of free men. If the people of the United States permit it to be imposed upon them at the will of their credit masters, the next step in their downward progress will be their acceptance of orders on company stores for what they eat and wear. Their case will be similar to that of starving coal miners. They, too, will be paid with orders on Company stores for food and clothing, both of indifferent quality and be forced to live in Company-owned houses from which they may be evicted at the drop of a hat. More of them will be forced into conscript labor camps under supervision.
"At noon on the 4th of March, 1933, FDR with his hand on the Bible, took an oath to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the U.S. At midnight on the 5th of March, 1933, he confiscated the property of American citizens. He took the currency of the United States standard of value. He repudiated the internal debt of the Government to its own citizens. He destroyed the value of the American dollar. He released, or endeavored to release, the Fed from their contractual liability to redeem Fed currency in gold or lawful money on a parity with gold. He depreciated the value of the national currency.
"The people of the U.S. are now using unredeemable paper slips for money. The Treasury cannot redeem that paper in gold or silver. The gold and silver of the Treasury has unlawfully been given to the corrupt and dishonest Fed. And the Administration has since had the effrontery to raid the country for more gold for the private interests by telling our patriotic citizens that their gold is needed to protect the currency.
"It is not being used to protect the currency! It is being used to protect the corrupt and dishonest Fed. "The directors of these institutions have committed criminal offense against the United States Government, including the offense of making false entries on their books, and the still more serious offense of unlawfully abstracting funds from the United States Treasury! "Roosevelt's gold raid is intended to help them out of the pit they dug for themselves when they gambled away the wealth and savings of the American people.
beesting
(11/12/99; 00:02:19MDT - Msg ID:18965)
(No Subject)
http://www.lbma.org.uk/members_list.html
NETKING, Thanks for the affirmation on physical Gold shortage in New Zealand.
Al Fulchino,You asked in msg#18959 if Handy and Harman,and Engelhard were the only two entities fabricating Gold products? I'm pretty sure Johnson Matthey fabricates also.I posted the link supplied by Sir Alchemist 11/8/99 #18606 on members of LBMA'some of the names on that list should be involved in fabrication.
Handy and Harman and Engelhard are the only ones I know of that publish a daily PRICE of fabricated Gold in U.S. dollars.....beesting
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