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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...

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FORUM ARCHIVES
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Archives date back to September 22, 1998


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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 3/1/2007
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

GOLD FINGER (3/1/07; 23:53:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 152877)
Crooks!...and I am sure there are MANY MORE!!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/insidertrading_dc;_ylt=AgRK8Ao_kHxUc4pdHcPontIDW7oF
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Employees of some of Wall Street's top banks were among more than a dozen people charged on Thursday in what authorities called one of the most pervasive insider trading rings since the 1980s, accused of using leaked information and even blackmail to make millions of dollars.

Imagine how many more who have not and NEVER will be caught. Stealing the money of hard working American's~

Good time to buy Physical gold and keep it in YOUR hands.

GF


mikal (3/1/07; 22:52:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 152876)
My apologies if a repost:
Email from a stepbrother who is a senior:
"Maybe you've read this one....I know this feeling all too well...
Senior's Moment
A 98 year old woman wrote this to her bank. The bank manager thought it amusing enough to have it published in the New York Times:
Dear Sir:
I am writing to thank you for bouncing my check with which I endeavored to pay my plumber last month.
By my calculations, three 'nanoseconds' must have elapsed between his presenting the check and the arrival in my account of the funds needed to honor it. I refer, of course, to the automatic monthly deposit of my entire salary, an arrangement which, I admit, has been in place for only eight years.
You are to be commended for seizing that brief window of opportunity, and also for debiting my account $30 by way of penalty for the inconvenience caused to your bank.
My thankfulness springs from the manner in which this incident has caused me to rethink my errant financial ways.
I noticed that whereas I personally attend to your
telephone calls and letters, when I try to contact
you, I am confronted by the impersonal, overcharging,
pre-recorded, faceless entity which your bank has become.
From now on, I, like you, choose only to deal with a flesh-and-blood person. My mortgage and loan payments will therefore and hereafter no longer be automatic,
but will arrive at your bank by check, addressed
personally and confidentially to an employee at your
bank whom you must nominate.
Be aware that it is an offense under the Postal Act
for any other person to open such an envelope. Please find attached an Application Contact Status which I
require your chosen employee to complete.
I am sorry it runs to eight pages, but in order that I know as much about him or her as your bank knows about me, there is no alternative.
Please note that all copies of his or her medical
history must be countersigned by a Notary Public, and the mandatory details of his/her financial situation
(income, debts, assets and liabilities) must be
accompanied by documented proof.
In due course, I will issue your employee with a PIN
number which he/she must quote in dealings with me.
I regret that it cannot be shorter than 28 digits but, again, I have modeled it on the number of button
presses required of me to access my account balance on your phone bank service. As they say, imitation is
the sincerest form of flattery.
Let me level the playing field even further.
When you call me, press buttons as follows:
1. To make an appointment to see me.
2. To query a missing payment.
3. To transfer the call to my living room in case I
am there.
4. To transfer the call to my bedroom in case I am
sleeping.
5. To transfer the call to my toilet in case I am
attending to nature.
6. To transfer the call to my mobile phone if I am not at home.
7. To leave a message on my computer. (A password to access my computer is required. A password will be
communicated to you at a later date to the Authorized Contact.)
8. To return to the main menu and to listen to
options 1 through 7.
9. To make a general complaint or inquiry, the
contact will then be put on hold, pending the
attention of my automated answering service.
While this may, on occasion, involve a lengthy wait, uplifting music will play for the duration of the call.  Regrettably, but again following your example, I must also levy an establishment fee to cover the setting up of this new arrangement.
May I wish you a happy, if ever so slightly less prosperous, New Year.
Your Humble Client (Remember: This was written by a 98 year old woman)
JUST GOTTA LOVE SENIORS"


Cometose (3/1/07; 21:28:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 152875)
Went awayfor two days and forgot to take my computer
The dollar is approaching its new resistance at .8378

TO night 's THE NIGHT ........maybe ...............

CHEAP SILVER

CHEAP GOLD


Next stop for SILVER WILL BE
21

YAHOOO


Topaz (3/1/07; 20:50:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 152874)
@ms you want it all.
http://www.businessjive.com/nss/darkside.html
Most deserving of a re-post in it's rightful spot in the link box ...scary huh?
Thank you.


Goldilox (3/1/07; 20:34:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 152873)
THE GOLDMAN FACTOR
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2007/0301.html
snip:

One can find a safe bet, that whenever gold flirts with the $700 mark, expect the unexpected. Silver was leading the way, moving into the mid-$14 level. Gold investors seem to require assurance to reinforce bravery. The events this week undercut that built bravery. As a result, gold and silver must climb a tougher wall of worry. My view regarding gold and monetary policy (central bank rate decisions) and stock/bond markets, against the backdrop of economic recession threats can be stated here simply. If over the next several months, gold fails to surpass $700, if silver fails to surpass $15, then we will be treated to a whopper recession. Why? Because the USEconomy has become driven by the financial sector in a truly bizarre display of a sick perversion. This is more than a tail wagging the dog. This is a Goldman tail wagging a dog sled team. In order to "control" gold, the powers must do irreparable harm to the entire economic system. They will therefore only permit little shocks. This accomplishes a concomitant fear factor to assist in the control of the gold price. My sure bet is that Goldman Sachs is behind the scenes working on the events this week. With Alan Greenspan gone from behind the curtain, Gentle Ben is not up to the task of pulling hidden levers. That job goes to the Team Goldman. The gold price was issuing loud shrill alarms. It will again, but fear must be quieted among the gold players. They must conclude once again, and they will, that gold will rise unless a painful recession is permitted from restricting the monetary spigot. The US cannot restrict that spigot, since its life blood is credit and not legitimate income from the manufacturing or other tangible sector. My gut tells me that the phrase "inflate or die" applies very aptly right now. The powers know it, so they shocked the system. Rates must rise in some global corners. Shocks might occur in other corners. But the flow of money which is constantly reflected in the gold price will remain brisk enough to lift that gold price. Is Goldman playing games, exploiting the cheaper gold price for large new long positions? Methinks probably yes

THE HEADACHE

If all this gives you a headache, you are not alone. Rest assured that unless a global recession led by the crippled USEconomy is desired, gold will thrive in the months ahead. The gold price reflects the abuse of money, and in order to prevent a meltdown on the financial side and on the economic side and within the banking arena, money must flow briskly so as to conceal the damage and to fill the gaps, not to mention restore the losses by insiders on Wall Street. Gold will only falter persistently if the entire system crashes after permitting it to crash. As long as clownish desperate central banks are on the job, at the controls, you can count on monetary inflation. Printing money and perverting the statistics is what they do best. They live to inflate tomorrow's bubble in order to become heroes once again. They act as accident event underwriters of last resort in today's accident ridden world. Their jobs will not go away. Gold took a hit as it danced next to the $690 line, but it is stabilizing above the $660 line. That is not a bad place to rest and recover and regroup for the next skirmishes. Fires rage everywhere one turns. Gold rises from the heat.

-Goldilox

JimWillie belives that nothing short of major recession will hold back PoG as things move forward.


mikal (3/1/07; 19:14:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 152872)
Re: Last post, 'turbulence' and 'volatility'- clarified
If the words 'turbulence' and 'volatility' aren't
"reported" so often that they lose effectiveness as a warning, remaining objective on the markets and the often opposing news would come easier to some.
Thank you


mikal (3/1/07; 19:03:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 152871)
Credit markets.... oh never mind
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20070302/bs_ft/fto030120071951076622
Frenzied trading takes its toll on markets By Christopher Brown-Humes and Gillian Tett in London
1 hour, 16 minutes ago - 03/02/07 - FT.com - Snippits:
"Financial markets swung wildly on Thursday in volatile trading marked by further selling of equities and fears about an unravelling of the global carry trade...

At the same time, trading in US and European credit markets was exceptionally heavy for a third consecutive day. London trading was marked by particularly wild swings in the prices of credit derivatives, used to insure investors against corporate defaults...

Although the scale of market movements remain relatively small compared with historical crises, the spike in volatility now appears to be forcing investors to reassess their positions. Asset prices have been so stable that investors have adopted trading strategies based on the assumption that volatility will remain low - an assumption undermined this week.
Ronan Carr, European equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, said: "People initially thought we were only going to see a small pullback in equity markets, with no major correction. But it seems they are starting to doubt that."
Albert Edwards, at Dresdner Kleinwort, said: "We believe the long and widely awaited equity correction is upon us. We expect government bonds to be the safe haven."
The credit market moves suggest that the sentiment shift now under way in that sector could be more violent than anything occurring in the equity world."
Mikal-- I need to comment on this generous and motivated article due to Interantional Fair Use Copyright Laws. What you are seeing is little different than the scenario reprised over and over here. Lots of bluff, noise and "fury" as Jim Sinclair has stated. All in the name of stability, rolling seas notwithstanding. And if turbulence and volatility aren't
overused until we're all inured by them, we can enjoy the serenity afforded by a real safe haven...


GOLD FINGER (3/1/07; 18:54:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 152870)
Are the masses really that "stupid"?? (not meant to insult)
It's amusing to me how the media will go to great lengths to tell others how it's "OK" to not really worry about the current market conditions.

If it was me I would be doing just the opposite. GET OUT AND STAY OUT!!

I hold NO paper investments other than fiat in stupid banks which I am converting ALL to hard assets by the end of this year.

NO MORE PAPER!!

This illusion is created by corporate staff writers to hold up the corporate torch! How sad that they can not get off the "feel good" bandwagon and report on the true state of economic affairs like greenspan has the balls to do. Maybe he wants to make a reversal and FINALLY stand up to the old school of doing business.

2007 will go down in history with some remarkable financial happenings!!

Here are some snippets from the good ole msn staff writers....guess they need to be concerned about MSN stocks too....


Americans hold on despite market

By Bradley Meacham
This week's global stock sell-off erased billions of dollars of market value.

But most Americans did exactly what investing experts advise in such a scenario: nothing.

According to a new MSN-Zogby poll, just 5% of Americans said they see a decline like this week's as an opportunity to buy, and only 1% said the slumping stock market causes them to sell.

Thirty-four percent said they either don't own stocks or are unsure how to react to a downturn.

Tuesday's around-the-world stock-market plunge trimmed more than $1 trillion from global equities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU), which has recovered some of that day's 416-point fall, is still on pace for its biggest weekly drop since January 2003. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX) is on pace for the biggest weekly drop since September 2002.

Some sophisticated traders managed to profit handsomely from this week's chaos with complicated bets on bonds, foreign currencies and risky investments. Yet most investors who trade amid a market frenzy report losses, analysts said.

GF>>>>Again the only ones who really profit here are the investment bankers who win at others fall and the stock brokers. I read more and more how the little guy is being crushed and how the new babe boomers will retire to NOTHING!! This is not asset preservation!! What did they really expect?? To make a fortune? In today's political unrest? NOT!!



According to the poll, most Americans have heeded that lesson.

GF>>>>(SHAME)When a boat is sinking would you not want to get out or find something to float on? True you can't float on gold, but is a safety insurance for rotten times or ANYTIME!!


Among those (41%) who identify themselves as members of the investor class, 85% said they hold steady during market upheavals and don't make changes to their portfolios. But 8% of self-described investors say they buy, and 2% say they sell during a market downturn.

Men (61%) and women (59%) are about equally likely to hold onto their stocks during volatile shocks in the stock market.

The interactive survey was conducted Feb. 28 and March 1, and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.


GF>>>>I WOULD HAVE JUMPED THE MOMENT I MADE THE "BIG GAINES " In this economy holding on would make no sence!! At least in some PAPER stocks.


PERHAPS HE REALLY IS TRYING...to help this time!

Much in demand
At the same time, Greenspan's outspokenness remains unusual for a former head of the world's top central bank. A year after erstwhile Fed chief Paul Volcker stepped down in 1987, he wasn't making similar market-moving statements. By contrast, Greenspan remains much in demand on the public speaking circuit and has seized the spotlight with other economic pronouncements since his retirement. The highly visible former chairman could prove a challenge for his successor even when their outlooks don't widely differ.

Get tuff!!
Get Smart!!
Get your gold!!

GF

"THE PRICE IS RIGHT"


mikal (3/1/07; 18:51:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 152869)
Orbits, or bits.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20070302/bs_ft/fto030120071936076619;_ylt=AgTd5DdZrbafn0hZfYQLmXT2ULEF
Fears over launch of trading law By Anuj Gangahar in New York, Doug Cameron in Chicago and Jeremy Grant in Washington - 03/02/07
1 hour, 13 minutes ago -- Snippits:
"The US stock and options market will come under fresh pressure next week with the introduction of a controversial securities law that will push trading volumes to levels far higher than those that caused systems to crash during Tuesday's market sell-off.
The law, known as Regulation National Market System, or Reg NMS, is aimed at levelling the playing field in the US equity market, meaning trades must be routed to the exchange that offers the best price.
Reg NMS will shake up the trading environment and has forced exchanges to build new electronic trading systems or update existing ones to comply with the rule in time for next Monday's deadline.
It also means brokers must look for the fastest trades at the best price...

Some fear that the rapid development of electronic trading in the run-up toReg NMS means the systems might not have been sufficiently tested and that the spike in volumes that is widely predicted could ex-pose weak points. In Tuesday's sell-off some volume records were smashed, led by electronic trading, across almost all asset classes."

>> Daylight saving tech changeover coming later this month and now this all of a sudden. Good job probing some possible scenarios for the layman.
Tuesday was different and they're entitled to their opinion. What stands out is the original reporting AND the linkage to this week's event. This invites further exploration and speculation of all kinds. Bits and pieces.


msiwantitall (3/1/07; 18:24:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 152868)
A disturbing presentation:
Greetings,

I've enjoyed this site for the last few months, ever since a private wake-up call guided me into buy physical gold for the first time. And, although the inner voice that's always been pretty accurate in the past shouted at me to get my money out of the stock market and park it for spell, I didn't listen (again).

What is most frightening to me about all of the posts and articles I read about the reasons to get out of the stock market and buy gold is that they all basically confirm each other. The following 1-hour video/slide presentation, which was sent to me by a friend is a little different and worth a look. It presents insidiously cancerous fail-to-delivery shorting practices within the stock market that enables crooks to trade billions of dollars worth of stock without money. It also paints THE most unnerving picture of the SEC ever. The weirdest part is that, for all of the incredible information-packed content, the presenter is never identified. Here it is -- see what you make of it:

http://www.businessjive.com/nss/darkside.html



USAGOLD Daily Market Report (3/1/07; 17:40:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 152867)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

THURSDAY Market Excerpts

March 1 (Reuters) -- COMEX gold futures dropped about 1 percent by late Thursday afternoon in New York as jitters set in after sellers returned to the stock markets. Even though gold is often seen as a safe haven in times of financial instability, analysts expected some investors to unload holdings and opt for liquidity as a wave of risk aversion swept through global markets for a second time this week.

Investors cashed in bullion holdings to pay for losses on equities.

The most-active April contract settled down $7.40 at $665.10, traded in a wide range of $664.40 to $680.20.

"It's just nervous, jittery type of trading right now. Gold is still pretty steady, although it's certainly run into some resistance between $675 to $680. So I still think you have that hangover from the Chinese news," said Bruce Dunn at Auramet Trading.

Dunn said gold would remain under pressure because of the volatile stock markets unless things turn around.

U.S. stocks tumbled early as a strengthening yen stirred concern that investors were being forced to unwind carry trades in a repeat of the risk aversion that sparked Tuesday's global market rout.

The Dow Jones industrial average and the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 Index both sank nearly 2 percent in early morning trade. Both indexes finished just slightly down.

Gold hit a nine-month high of $689 on Monday as firm crude oil, tensions between Iran and the United States and a weaker dollar raised the metal's appeal as a haven and a hedge against inflation.

But it was hit, along with other financial markets, by heavy selling triggered by the biggest drop in China's main stock index in a decade.

Most analysts retain their friendly stance toward gold, with many looking for a move in coming weeks to $700 and above.

"Sentiment toward gold is still bullish, what happened this week is a blip, it coincided with a period when gold needed a consolidation period," said Stephen Briggs, analyst at SGCIB.

"The gold price is going to head toward $700, that's what people want it to do."

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---


Topaz (3/1/07; 17:03:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 152866)
Land sakes!! You just don't know who to trust these days.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/01/markets/insider_trading.reut/index.htm
Even the article downplays the fact that 24, not 13 charges were laid.
Love the part where the plot was uncovered and, rather than reporting it, they opted to blackmail the marks.
Can you say all-pervasive.


Topaz (3/1/07; 16:48:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 152865)
Aggie update.
http://www.crbtrader.com/data/default.asp?page=quote&sym=SIH6&mode=d
Todays Vol/OI is posted and I'm encouraged by OI in the current month ...assuming it's not ALL market-maker churn we might get back on track.
In trading vernacular being seriously overweight might ultimately be injurous to your health ...it's fun while it lasts tho!



flow5 (3/1/07; 16:23:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 152864)
The "Trigger"
"The United States has the largest national economy in the world, with a GDP for 2006 of 12.98 trillion dollars" If we hiccup, it resonates around the world. In contradistinction, never, has it been any other way. So which do you think came first, the chicken or the egg?

fool me once, shame on you. fool me twice, shame on me.

Globalization isn't chic. There's no alternative. Imported oil, + U.S. foreign & domestic military policies will rapidly transform this country into one that has the highest poverty rate in the world. The exchange value of the dollar will perpetually, inexorably, relentlessly, depreciate, to where the U.S. will no longer have foreign policy choices.


Goldilox (3/1/07; 15:40:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 152863)
Inflation causes?
@ Flow5,

"Approximately 75 percent of the inflation between 1965 and the early 1980's was due to an irresponsible easy monetary policy."

My guess is you're only off by about 25%, or one third of the total.

Ain't statistics marvelous?


flow5 (3/1/07; 15:20:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 152862)
The Feb 28th Meltdown
Guess what happened on bank squaring day, i.e., last day of the systems maintenance period? Banks postponed meeting a larger than normal part of their reserve requirements, until the last day of the reserve maintenance period, as the rate fluctuation data suggests.
So much for lagged reserve accounting. That happened to be one reason why contemporaneous reserve accounting, was favored over lagged reserve accounting. The volume of holiday transactions deposits was much higher 30 days ago, yet depository institutions had to meet their reserve requirements on those liabilities by Feb. 28, 2007. And because the volume of reserves supplied to the banking system by the FOMC was exceptionally low, the banks were unable to meet them.
As it happened, the funds "bracket racket" failed again. If the FOMC had been targeting the total member commercial bank adjusted legal reserve figure, there would not have been a panic in the financial markets. Consequently, to stabilize the financial markets, 17.25 bill of temporary repurchase agreements, consisting of treasury and agency securities, were issued on Feb. 28, 2007 (open market operations of the New York trading desk which added to the Federal Reserves portfolio -- SOMA). And because depository institutions total reserves had been drained beyond justification, I suspect that a significant number of depository institutions carried a 2% reserve shortage, into the next reserve maintenance period.
It has been repeatedly stated that the only tool at the disposal of the monetary authority in a free capitalistic system through which the volume of money can be controlled is legal reserves. If the FOMC ever came to grips with the historical experience, they would realize that the only type of bank asset that Fed can constantly monitored and absolutely control, are interbank demand deposits (IBDDs) held in the Reserve banks, owned by the commercial banks. This was the original definition of legal reserves in 1913, and it is the only viable definition.

A reserve maintenance period is a period over which the daily average reserves of a depository institution must equal or exceed its required reserves. Required reserves are based on daily average deposit liabilities in the reserve computation period



flow5 (3/1/07; 15:19:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 152861)
The Fed Funds "Bracket Racket"
The buying and selling of Treasury bills, etc., under the auspices of the Manager of the Open Market Account through the New York Federal Reserve Bank for the accounts of all Federal Reserve Banks are tied to federal funds rates. As a guide to open market operations the rates are used as follows: a rise in the federal funds rate above the rate triggers open market selling operations. ; A fall below the rate, open market purchases. Open market operations of the buying type add (free gratis) legal reserves to the banking system; selling operations reduce reserves.
The technicians in charge of the hour-to-hour administration of open market operations apparently believe that there is, at any given time, a federal funds rate that is consonant with a proper rate of change in the money supply. They have in fact plugged this concept into a computer model. (e.g., the Taylor rule). What they have actually "plugged in" is an open ended device through which the commercial banks can decide whether or not there should be an expansion in the legal lending capacity of the banking system – the capacity to create credit (money) and to acquire additional earning assets. That this expansion in money and credit will always take place is attested to by the insignificant amount of excess reserves held at all times by the member banks.
A clear distinction should be made between the temporary and the longer term effects of open market operations on the level of interest rates. To hold down the Fed Funds rate (and other rates through this key rate), the Manager of the Open Market Account puts through buy orders for T-Bills or other eligible securities sufficient to yield a net increase in free, member bank reserves and free excess reserves. The Fed acquires these earning assets by creating free, new interbank demand deposits in the Federal Reserve Banks—that is by creating free, new legal reserves at the disposal of the member banks (IBDDs).
Assume the buy order is for T-Bills. The effect is to bid up their prices, reduce their discounts (interest rates) and add to free member bank legal and excess reserves. The expansion of free excess reserves increases the quantity of loan able "federal" funds thereby pegging or retarding the increase in the Fed Funds rate but the longer term effects of these operations are to fuel the fires of inflation.
An understanding of these temporary and longer term effects reveals why the tight money policy initiated in February 2006 brought about a continued upsurge in interest rates until 07/20/06.. But it had the longer term effect of bringing inflation and interest rates down, until the end of the FOMC's tight money policy in Dec..
Approximately 75 percent of the inflation between 1965 and the early 1980's was due to an irresponsible easy monetary policy. Since 1965, the operations of the trading desk has been dictated by the federal funds "bracket racket". This has assured the bankers that no matter what lines of credit they extend, they can always honor them since the Fed assures the banks access to free legal reserves whenever the banks need to cover their expanding loans – deposits.
Our monetary mismanagement has been the assumption that the money supply can be managed through interest rates. We should have learned the falsity of that assumption in the Dec. 1941-Mar. 1951 period. That was what the Treas. – Fed. Res. Accord of Mar. 1951 was all about The effect of tying open market policy to a fed Funds rate is to supply additional (and excessive free legal reserves) to the banking system when loan demand increases. Since the member banks have no excess reserves of significance the banks have to acquire additional, free, reserves to support the expansion of deposits resulting from their loan expansion. This has assured the bankers that no matter what lines of credit they extend, they can always honor them since the Fed assures the banks access to free legal reserves whenever the banks need to cover their expanding loans – deposits.
Apparently, the Fed's technical staff either never learned, or forgot, how Roosevelt got his "2 percent war". This was achieved by having the Fed stand ready to buy (or sell) all Treasury obligations at a price which would keep the interest rate on "T" bills below one percent, and long-term bonds around 2 -1/2 percent, and all other obligations in between. This was achieved through totalitarian means, involving the control of total bank credit and the specific rationing of that credit We had official price stability and "black market" inflation. This was reflected in the price indices as soon as price controls were removed.
The Fed cannot control interest rates, even in the short end of the market except temporarily. By attempting to slow the rise in the federal funds rate the Fed will pump an excessive volume of free legal reserves into the member banks.
The manager of the open market account uses a "creeping peg" inorder to add or drain bank reserves . The Manager of the Open Market Account should ignore the fed funds "bracket racket". A "Taylor like Rule" is responsible for our bubbles in stocks, oil, and residential and commercial real estate.

There is only one interest rate that the Fed can directly control: the discount rate charged to bank borrowers. The effect of Fed operations on all other interest rates is indirect, and varies widely over time, and in magnitude. In the last several months it's decoupled from legal reserves, inflation rates, and short term and long term interest rates.
As long as it is profitable for borrowers to borrow and commercial banks to lend, money creation is not self regulatory. This observation would be valid even though the Fed did not use the federal funds bracket device as a guide to open market operations. With the use of this device the Fed has actually pursued a policy of automatic accommodation. That is, additional free reserves and free excess reserves were made available to the banking system whenever the bankers and their customers saw an advantage in expanding loans. The member banks, lacking excess reserves, would bid up the federal funds rate to the top of the bracket thus triggering open market purchases, free bank reserves, more money creation, larger monetary flows (MVt), higher rates of inflation – and higher federal funds rates, more open market purchases, etc., etc.
Unfortunately, the effect of FOMC operations on the federal funds rate is unknown for an indefinite length of time. Using the fed funds rate, lags are variable. Likewise, the Fed cannot calculate the level of interest rates associated with the ROC in nominal gdp, as historically, they vary.
Monetarism involves controlling the volume of total reserves, not the volume of non-borrowed reserves as administered by Paul Volcker in Oct 1979 – 1982. Monetarism involves more than watching the aggregates, it also involves properly controlling them.. Monetarism has never been tried. If the money supply is controlled properly, the determination of interest rates can be left to market forces.
Because the Feds technical staff has based its policies on the incorrect assumption (that in their time deposits activities the commercial banks act as intermediaries in the savings-investment process), and the evidence is the elimination of all interest ceilings and reserve requirements on time deposits. Apparently, the Fed's technical staff believes commercial banks create new money, only in their transaction deposit operations, and not in their savings or time deposit operations. This must be their rationale behind discontinuing publishing M3. This will impact us in the long term, because it (the DIDMCA), will eventually cause our means-of-payment money to approximate M3
The "Taylor Rule"
R= P + .5Y + .5(P – 2) + 2
Where r = the fed funds rate
P is the rate of inflation over the previous four quarters
Y is the percentage deviation of real gdp from a target


Topaz (3/1/07; 14:32:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 152860)
whatsmore...
...by not posting Wednesdays delivery notice the world was deprived of seeing what in fact caused the PoG price to hold up right into the close (last delivery for Feb) only to plummet in access trade shortly thereafter.

Answer: a handful of Au deliveries imo.

Hold your Metal close ...and TRY not to be influenced by these S/T price jolts.


Topaz (3/1/07; 14:11:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 152859)
Henri
Thats my greatest concern Henri, that as this evolves (devolves), a lot of good honest types will be caught divesting themselves of metal thinking the "price" is dropping. In reality, given the current price discovery mechanism, that couldn't be further from the truth, as what is being (or will be) discounted will be the ability of the paper receipt to "eventually" represent metal-in-hand.

Paper-Metal separation? These recent stealth actions on Comex (PoG/PoS) will give rise to more and more metal simply being witheld from market as metal-holders see through the P-D ruse imo.


Survivor (3/1/07; 13:36:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 152858)
Just Another Example of Not Believing Everything You Hear. . .

Time Magazine has released their top 25 of Crimes Of The [20th] Century.

I looked through the list, but did not find the 1913 act creating the Federal Reserve. Hmmm.

- Survivor (with tongue firmly planted in cheek)



Henri (3/1/07; 13:36:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 152857)
@Topaz
Are you saying that people are finally recognizing that the paper is no good without metal to back it? That the paper price is separating from the physical pricing???

Liberty Head (3/1/07; 13:35:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 152856)
Oh That Volatility!

A big big thanks to USA GOLD for allowing me to win a Silver Eagle.
I enjoyed this contest all the more for the volatility and the commentary.


Best Wishes


Henri (3/1/07; 13:29:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 152855)
circa 2010 overheard near the tent camp of Sir Henri
SH: what's that? Who goes there?

PTB: it's me, Henri...the sheriff.

SH: What you again? what do you want now?

PTB: Well sir its about your chip. It seems to have gone missing again.

SH: What my chip? umm, I had it yeshterday...yesheree ahm sureofit. where did that leedle rashcal go anyway...I don know why itsho impotent anyhow ...wayt da minute...howd you know my chip is gone anyhow?

PTB: Well our TV camera had you walking by with a bag of tagged groceries and we got no blip of who was carrying them so it recorded you and sent it in to central and they sent it to me nad well you know how the drill goes. Say how did you get those groceries anyway???

SH: Dang it you guys have gone too far now...I spect you have finally infiltrated the Amish now too. Did someone plant a tag in my groceries?! They were shposed ta be clean...I don't know where that chip is...ahhh hey wait a minute...those guys who beat me up last night mustve taken it...ya know thats the fourth one they got this winter... they trade.em ya know their good for so many of dem Imperial credits a month ya know...I wouldn't be sprised if they were sellin 'em.

PTB: Yeah, Yeah Henri, I've heard it all before...come to think of it your credits were being used in more than one spot at a time and and we wondered how you could be in three places at once when you're not anywhere at all out here in the camp. Say you wouldn't have sold yer chip ya know thats agin the law...

SH: An just exactly what would somebody have that I would want to sell my chip fer anyway??? I walk 20 miles to the farm in the mornin cause you took my license the first time they stole my chip...i work all day to get a meesly bag of veggies fer me stew pot and some rabbit meat that I got wi me snare...I spose thats agin the law too...hows a feller sposed ta survive anyway with all this chipotle merrygoroun'fest...I don..need no stinkin' chip anyway!

PTB: Alright Henri, you know the drill (He pulls the implanter from his holster)...

SH: Dang it sheriff you poke so many holes in me with that thing they think I'm a drug addict down at the railroad stop. Git that thing away from me... git back ye ahhhhhhRGH crap...that better not git infected again...


Topaz (3/1/07; 13:28:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 152854)
Delivery Ag.
http://www.nymex.com/media/delivery.pdf
This is becoming the norm now, they neglect to post the Delivery Notice on the first day ...soften the blow I 'spose.
With 3100odd yesterday plus 800 today Ag might have nothing left (we'll get a better idea when they update the vol/OI) to give, inspiring this current drop-off.
Ag is normally a lot more honest than this ...particularly during delivery mth and I'd reckon this action is more a desperation measure than any wholesale loss of faith in Aggie ...we'll see!


Caradoc (3/1/07; 12:46:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 152853)
my vote...
Aye! MK's post of that phone call is a keeper.

Caradoc


donnemuir (3/1/07; 12:28:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 152852)
MK @ 152842 152848 152851
Call for the question.....All in favor aye!

Waverider (3/1/07; 11:29:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 152851)
The Golden Archives are calling......
Yes Sir Smeagol - I would like to second your vote that Sir MK's PPT pose be entred into The Hall of Fame! Precious pieces MUST be kept in the Golden Archives!

Congratulations to all contest winners and another big thank you to Sir MK and Sir Gandalf for running the contest. Cheers,

Waverider


Goldilox (3/1/07; 11:03:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 152850)
Now we've ticked them off !
http://www.netdania.com/ChartApplet.asp?symbol=XAUUSDOZ%7Ccomstock_lite
The after lunch crowd is dumping gold paper just to tick us off, I'm sure.

They're using the last trading hour to dump-and-run, like the cowards they are.

Spot and Spike, sic 'em!


Goldilox (3/1/07; 10:55:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 152849)
"Shock Absorber Shorts"
@ the Hoople,

That would never do. In the world of gubmint/military acronyms, SAS is already spoken for, at least in hush circles, not to mention Scandinavian Airlines, and Serial Atached SCSI.

I still prefer "Paulson's Pirate Team", or SGIF (Spank Gold it's Friday).

-G'lox


From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Special Air Service

The Special Air Service Regiment (SAS) is the principal special forces unit of the British Army. A small and secretive institution, it sometimes attracts a disproportionate amount of media coverage. The SAS was formed in 1941 with British volunteers to conduct raids behind enemy lines in North Africa, and today serves as a model for similar units fielded by other countries.

The SAS forms part of the United Kingdom Special Forces, alongside the Special Boat Service (SBS), Special Reconnaissance Regiment (SRR), and Special Forces Support Group (SFSG). The SAS is the oldest special forces unit in the world, tracing its existence back to 1941 and the North African Campaign of the Second World War. It is renowned for its elitism and is widely viewed as the best trained special forces unit in the world. It has been and is currently employed to train other elite units such as Mossad.



Smeagol (3/1/07; 10:44:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 152848)
Contesst Collusion Coalition
Humor comes not oft from Ssir MK's pen! BWAHAHAHAAA! Sss! That one should be saved!

"MK: Incredible. All because of our contests? Oh my. . .So how do you propose to accomplish this?

PPT: You will make a new rule that everyone has to make the same price guess. That would eliminate the volatility."

we likes thiss... O yess we does... next Contesst, we'll all jusst guess... ssay, FRN30,000 per ounce of IT! That ought to "fix" things!

Trebuchets indeed! (cackle!) >8-)

By the way, Congratulations to the Contesst winners! ~8-)


The Hoople (3/1/07; 10:41:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 152847)
Goldilox
Maybe you've coined a new term for PPT operations at the Comex- "the shock absorber shorts".

Watching today's 200 point Dow drop, followed by recovery into a comatose state reminds me of someone facing an armed intruder wanting to terrorize them. The solution obviously is to take a tranquilizer and pretend he isn't there. After all if you can't remember him being there, he isn't, right?


Gandalf the White (3/1/07; 10:13:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 152846)
SIR MK !!! Now the PPT is calling me ! ON MY CELLPHONE !!
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s
AND see what they have done now after you spoke to them at 0930 East Coast Time ! (CLICK on the chart LINK !)
To get even, maybe USAGOLD should have MORE POG CONTESTS !!!
<;-)


Goldilox (3/1/07; 09:45:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 152845)
Comix Roller coaster
http://www.netdania.com/ChartApplet.asp?symbol=XAUUSDOZ%7Ccomstock_lite
Quite the battle raging on the trading floor around $670.

The chart resembles a condition that inspired new shocks on my motorcycle.


YGM (3/1/07; 09:29:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 152844)
Bank Failure in USA
http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070212/COLUMNIST21/702120338
(Excerpt)
First bank failure in years happens in Pittsburgh


The streak is over.

After nearly 21/2 years without a bank failure, a small Pennsylvania bank collapsed this month.

Metropolitan Savings Bank of Pittsburgh was closed by its state banking department. About $12 million in deposits were assumed by Allegheny Valley Bank of Pittsburgh.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said Metropolitan had about $1.2 million in deposits in 70 accounts that could exceed the federal insurance limit.

The last bank failure occurred in June 2004, the longest period without a failure since the FDIC was formed in 1934.


Goldilox (3/1/07; 09:23:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 152843)
PPT call
@ MK,

Next time they call, have Marie ask for the caller's home phone number, and tell them you'll get back to them at dinner time!

LOL!


MK (3/1/07; 09:18:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 152842)
In a corner office facing the castle courtyard with a view of now winter garden: . .
MK sits at his desk thinking simple contest thoughts. All is quiet for it is the beginning of the day and the castle mainframe (there is more to this castle than many think) boots up to the USAGOLD page. As he clicks to see the current gold price, the telephone rings with a lound trumpet like sound:

MK (loudly to the outer room, letting the phone ring): Marie, Marie. . . . .Can you please contact our great and wondrous wizard? He's programmed the phone ring on "trumpets" again. He must be having one of those infernal price guessing contests again at the forum. I was just thinking about that. . . .

Marie (picking up the phone): Good morning. This is the Castle. Yes, he's in. May I tell him who's calling. (Pause) The PPT? Can I ask the nature of the call?You can't say except that it is a matter of utmost importance to the nation? Very well, I'll put you through. (Puts the phone on hold.) It's the PPT, they would like to ask you a question.

MK: The PPT? What is that?

Marie: The Plunge Protection Team.

MK: The Plunge Protection Team? Who are they?

Marie: They are the organization that protects the kingdom against plunges.

MK: Plunges? What kind of plunges? OK. OK. I'll take the call. . . .(Picking up the phone) This is MK how can I help you?

PPT (Gruffly): MK, we understand that you are having one of your forum is having one of those famous gold price guessing contests.

MK: Well, yes. . .I believe so. . .at least Gandalf, our esteemed and noble wizard of at least 150 years, called the other day to see if the Castle Treasury still had. . . .

PPT (Interrupting): We don't need to hear all that. We know you are having a price guessing contest and we fear it is responsible for disrupting the markets!

MK: The markets? All of them??

PPT: Yes, all of them. And you probably know, if you read your own forum, that the PPT is charged with the possibility of keeping the markets stable, confidence up and liquidity flowing like the mighty Mississippi.

MK: The mighty Mississippi. Yes. I like that.

PPT: Occasionally we deem it necessary to take overt action when someone or something threatens market stability.

MK (with a chuckle): Have you talked to Alan Greenspan lately? No, No. . .just kidding of course. Now who did you say you represented again?

PPT: The PPT. The Plunge Protection Team. Let me get to the purpose of my call. These contests of yours cause volatility in the gold market which spills over to the stock market, then to the bond market, the housing market and finally the economy as a whole. We call it the USAGOLD Price Guessing Contest Falling Dominoe Effect and Syndrome, or USAGOLDPGCFDEAS for short. In short these contests endanger the public well-being, and we've come to the conclusion that something needs to be done.

MK (Excitedly): Aha! I knew it! And what about those trumpets. Those loud, blaring, mind-numbing trumpets. I've talked with Gandalf about that many times. . . . many times. The PPT needs to do something about that as well and let me say that I am 100% behind it.

PPT (Impatiently): We didn't call to discuss trumpets and wizards we called to discuss volatility and why there is market volatility across the boards every time you call the USAGOLD forum to contest.

MK: Well, I guess we all have our priorities.

PPT: We, the Plunge Protection Team, would like to know if you would mind if we manipulated your contests. You see, this is what we do. We manipulate things. Let me rephrase that -- we "manage" things. And this contest of yours keeps upsetting the apple cart. We are talking simple cause and effect here. The Team came to the conclusion that it would be the simplest, straight-line solution to simply manage your contests and then the gold market, stock market, bond market, the economy and the inflation rate will all fall into line. We won't need Bernanke anymore and Paulson can spend as much time in China as he wants. . . .and. . .well. . . . you get the picture.

MK: Incredible. All because of our contests? Oh my. . .So how do you propose to accomplish this?

PPT: You will make a new rule that everyone has to make the same price guess. That would eliminate the volatility.

MK: The same price guess? But, you see, the purpose of the contest is to. . .

PPT (Interrupting again): How can you care about contests when we are talking the whole world economy. What say you?

MK (thinking quickly): I'm not sure. Let me put you on hold.

MK: Marie. . .Marrrrrrrrrie. . . Please bring the portable extension, we must go to the vault and find that last Mermaid coin I've specially hidden for Tuco. You won't believe who I'm talking to on the phone. . . .Oh you say you know, who it is. You were the one who put them through to me. Yes. Odd isn't it. They are asking if they can manipulate the contests. . . .Did you bring the keys?

(Voices fade)

To be continued. . . .

Thanks everyone. Enjoyed the discussion in and around contest time.







YGM (3/1/07; 09:13:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 152841)
Silver Fox...try to talk "sense" to my friends
I started on my friends about 1989, by 1999 I was hounding, being ridiculed etc. Sure buddy I'll buy physical Gold @ $265.00 or Glamis Gold @ $3.00...NOT! GATA? What would I want to join those goldnuts for? Well hey, I had the last laugh there also.
Well nowadays they're still working 9-5 for the bank loans on everything they "think" they own, and I owe not one red cent with all my assets paid for in cash. I seldom waste my time anymore, even tho there's still so much unseen upside to real hard in your hand 'Yellow' money!


Silver Fox (3/1/07; 08:41:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 152840)
Goldilox #: 152839

TV: "Opiate of the Masses"

The six companies that control the media feed the masses a daily "dumbing down" of worthless, happyonomics: inflation is low, global warming isn't real, there is an unlimited amount of oil, the US economy is strong, the DOW is at a record high, bonds and treasuries are good investments, etc.

Karl Marx had it right last century, but anymore, it seems like the TV is replacing religion as the "opiate of the masses". Like your neighbor, when I try to talk "sense" to my friends, it is like I am speaking a foreign language that they just don't understand.

When the party is over, the Mogambo advises that "the collapse" will be over in a month. If at that time, you are not "holding" gold, it will then be too late. As such, I am afraid for my friends. Telling them "I told you so" will not bring me any joy.

SF


Goldilox (3/1/07; 08:19:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 152839)
Wake-up call
My landlord called me at 6:32 and asked "What's happening to this market."

My reply? "The chickens are coming home to roost."

Don't know if he "gets it" yet, but he was mumbling something about buying some farmland near water.

I keep exhorting him to turn off CNBC and get on the Net, but he has a million excuses why he has no time.


Goldilox (3/1/07; 08:15:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 152838)
Savings
@ Silver Fox,

Worse yet, of the 50% who do have savings, if they aren't listening to the "paper will burn" warnings, they probably won't have any soon.

Got gold?


Silver Fox (3/1/07; 08:07:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 152837)
Goldilox #: 152836

Boomer retirement

Worse, I believe it was on Goldseek Radio were I heard that ˝ of all US baby boomers have no savings and will be 100% dependent on SS. If the politicians, (what am I saying, they don't control the government), if our "masters" try to significantly reduce the SS payments, I would bet on seriously angry boomer protests in the streets. That might be why the "masters" are debasing our currency so quickly.

SF


Goldilox (3/1/07; 07:57:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 152836)
Boomer retirement
@Silver Fox

"One thing for sure, when the baby boomers begin to retire in earnest, the subsequent impact of reducing Federal tax receipts and while expenses explode will not be able to be avoided."

There has ALWAYS been a surplus in SSI, that the lawmakers have eagerly absconded with for wars and other pork-laden activities. Why do you think that those who work for the government are NOT dependent on SSI for their retirement? They KNOW they are stealing it, that's why!

Blaming the Baby boomers for "draining the swamp" is just what the media wants us to believe.


Goldilox (3/1/07; 07:52:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 152835)
DOW off 200 in early trading
"Second verse, same as the first!"

Silver Fox (3/1/07; 07:36:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 152834)
slingshot #: 152831

FIAT REALM

Although the world's economy is indeed on the "edge", I wouldn't be surprised to see "them" pull the rabbit out of the hat again. It seems that all of the major players are working at keeping the "house of cards" standing. Mean while, each player maneuvers their position on the board; i.e. China & Russia chumming up with Iran, Europe entering into long term contracts for oil with "exporters". Given Rice's recent surprise announcement of the invitation of Iran and Syria to Iraq for negotiating, it may well be another dangerous "turn" has been averted.

One thing for sure, when the baby boomers begin to retire in earnest, the subsequent impact of reducing Federal tax receipts and while expenses explode will not be able to be avoided. Therefore, even if we avoid the immediate problems, derivatives, baby boomers and other issues WILL certainly collapse the dollar in the NEAR future.

SF


Clink! (3/1/07; 07:34:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 152833)
Contest
Congratulations to the winners and a BIG Thank You to our gracious sponsor and his wizardly umpire. After a hesitant start because it was a pretty thought-provoking question, I was favorably impressed by some of the responses.

@ Goldi, I think you underestimate MK's knowledge of the market. He always chooses a moment when things look about ready to go crazy with volatility. After all, why have they always been called price-GUESSING contests, not price-ESTIMATING ones !!

@ Placer Gold - that was an interesting find you made in the bottle.

C!


mikal (3/1/07; 07:32:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 152832)
(No Subject)
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/maybe-russell-right/story.aspx?guid=%7BAC4832B0%2DFA1A%2D47D3%2D8BFB%2D1FADE5387B7C%7D
Maybe Russell is Right - Peter Brimelow and Edwin S. Rubenstein - MarketWatch
Maybe P.E.'s and stock prices are too high


slingshot (3/1/07; 07:10:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 152831)
Contest
Congrats to the Winners. Thanks again to USAGOLD and Sir M.K. for hosting it. To all the participants, thanks for all the great posts. To Gandalf the White, for his time and patience a special thanks. Rules! We must have Rules! :0) I do not know for sure but I'm beginning to suspect this may have been the last contest. Too many warning signs and the majority of the expectations are positive for gold to rise. We all have thrown a piece of the puzzle into a blender and for some people that mixture will be a deadly drink who stay in the FIAT REALM.
This contest was at a turning point.Things are not as good in the market as it seems. Greed and Fear have raised their ugly heads. We are far ahead on the learning curve. Enough along that we all can weather the coming storm.

Slingshot------------<>


mikal (3/1/07; 07:09:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 152830)
More gov't 'figures' and 'guages'
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aQ0qHPdvLDxc&refer=us
U.S. January Personal Spending Rises 0.5%, Core Prices Up 0.3% - Bloomberg.com - March 1, 2007 -- Excerpt:
"Personal spending in the U.S. increased more than forecast
in January and the Federal Reserve's preferred price guage accelerated, suggesting inflation wil remain the central bank's biggest concern."
The "CB's biggest concern" may be that we'll find out what their biggest concern really is.
The article goes on to admit that consumer spending is needed to fill the gap left by slowing manufacturing and housing, but does not question the methodology of sampling and measurement in the spending 'guage'.
Though this gap is addressed indirectly with the inclusion of anecdotes of disappointing results at some large retailers.


mikal (3/1/07; 06:36:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 152829)
Headline rundown
Gold Rises in Asia as Possible Iran Sanctions Spur Haven Buying - Bloomberg
Yen Rises as Foreign Investors Boost Purchases of Japan's Debt - Bloomberg
Chicago manufacturing losing momentum - Chi. Trib
Fed Doesn't See Subprime Mortgages as Threat - Bloomberg Greenspan Says U.S. Recession Possible, Not Probable - Bloomberg
Commerce Department Says U.S. Economy Is Weaker Than Expected - NY Times
Mortgage Defaults Start to Spread - WSJ
Waning Appetite for Risk Poses Challenges - WSJ
Agencies issue subprime guidance: sources - Reuters
Is the S.E.C. Changing Course? - NY Times
Freddie Mac Tightens Standards - NY Times
Asian stocks wobble as aftershocks continue - AFP
Foreigners in for steep tax rises as China's parliament meets - AFP


Tuco (3/1/07; 05:59:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 152828)
Contest
Thank you Sir MK and Sir Gandolf for sponsoring the price of gold guessing contest. I am a faithful lurker. Without going into long-winded detail, I can say that this site has had a great, positive impact on me. Again, thank you for the contest and the wonderful site.

Oh, my secret for winning--Just as Tuco would do in "The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly", I just spotted my target and fired from the hip.

Tuco



Lackluster (3/1/07; 05:27:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 152827)
"forever stamps"


Some time ago here in Massachusetts, the Registry of Motor Vehicles implemented a new registration scheme, where one could, for a higher fee, register ones car for as long as you owned it. Normally one has to re-register every two years. It seemed like a good deal, I remember my Father registering his car that way.

Well, guess how long that new scheme lasted? Three or four years, then the Commonwealth needed money, so it went out the window. Even if one had signed up for it, one was forced to start registering the old way. I don't think the Registry reimbursed any of the people for their higher registration fee they had paid for the "forever registration."



TownCrier (3/1/07; 02:48:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 152826)
Because Inflation is 'Forever'
http://usmarket.seekingalpha.com/article/28360
(Mar 1st, 2007) Tim Iacono submits: The title of this post is not something you're likely to hear from the U.S. Postal Regulatory Commission as their rationale ... but that's the reality.

A new "forever" stamp -- good for mailing a letter no matter how much rates rise -- was recommended Monday by the independent Postal Regulatory Commission. The panel also called for a 2-cent increase in first-class rates to 41 cents...

"Adoption of this proposal is good for the Postal Service, postal customers and our postal system," commission chairman Dan G. Blair said at a briefing.
A forever stamp would not carry a denomination, but would sell for whatever the first-class rate was at the time.

For example, if the 41-cent rate takes effect, forever stamps would sell for 41 cents. If rates later climbed to 45 cents or more, the price of the forever stamp would also go up at the counter or machine, but those purchased before the change would still be valid to mail a letter.

If the forever stamp ever sees the light of day, get ready for a real, unambiguous indicator of "inflation expectations" from the American public.

The various data collectors who calculate inflation expectations may be able to stop asking people whether they think consumer prices will rise 3.2 percent or 4.1 percent or 2.6 percent in the year ahead and just watch the Postal Service printing presses as they struggle to keep up with demand for the new stamp where mailers can lock in current postal rates -- forever.

It seems that postal rates are rising much more rapidly than the government's Consumer Price Index.

Just like the U.S. Mint, offering $700 gold coins with a face value of $50, the postal service appears to be undoing the hard work of the Federal Reserve in establishing "inflation expectations" far different than those that exist in the real world.

^___(from url)___^

When this idea was first floated (a year or so ago) a few of our forum's very astute posters were clearly way ahead of the learning curve -- having fully discussed this and arrived at the same assessment that has been so eloquently presented in this current piece by Tim Iacono.

Keep up the good work, Forumers!

R.


TownCrier (3/1/07; 02:18:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 152825)
Gold Rises in Asia as Possible Iran Sanctions Spur Haven Buying
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aZls5D8KycJg&refer=commodities
March 1 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose in Asia for the fourth day in five as the prospect of United Nations sanctions against Iran spurred demand from investors buying bullion as a haven.


Tensions surrounding Iran's nuclear program have heightened this week with the U.S., the U.K., Russia, China, France and Germany set to discuss by telephone later today elements of a new UN resolution against Iran...

"Fundamentally, nothing much has changed for gold, the geopolitical tensions remain, if anything it is a safe haven," said Darren Heathcote, head of trading at Investec Bank (Australia) Ltd. "I think the expectations are it will head towards the highs of yesterday, around the $679 level again."

Gold for immediate delivery rose as much as $8.20, or 1.2 percent, to $677.55 an ounce and traded at 676.96 at 12:11 p.m. Sydney time, extending the metal's 0.9 percent gain late yesterday in New York.

^___(from url)___^

It's almost comical -- that the very same 24-hr gold market can look so completely positive when viewed from the Oriental timeframe as compared to the gloomier paintjob in the Occident.

R.




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