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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/1/2007
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

GOLD FINGER (1/1/07; 16:29:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 150622)
A video can say a 1000 words if not MORE!
I noticed at the funeral proceedings of Gerald Ford as the camera spanned around the Capital rotunda where the casket lay and as the Vice President read the eulogy about his life, there were two people sitting close to each other.

Two who have great wisdom and who many regard as almost prophetic for the USA and the economy. These men still have a lot to say and I wonder what they were talking about after the funeral??

Want take a guess about both?? How about what they may have been saying about 2007? Well, I bet when Allen Greenspan and Hennery Kissinger collaborate the conversation is most enlightening!

OIL and GOLD will again be in the top news this year....my prediction!!

Cheers,
GF

May you all have a most prosperous 2007...the year of the Pig~



Chris Powell (1/1/07; 12:58:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 150621)
Banks and funds pay top dollar to secure commodity talent
http://biz.yahoo.com/ft/070101/fto010120071424249461.html?.v=1
By Kevin Morrison
Financial Times, London
Monday January 1, 2007

LONDON -- London Commodity traders, once the overlooked Cinderellas of the financial trading world, are being offered multi-million-dollar lock-in payments reminiscent of the early dotcom boom, when banks were also desperate to expand into new areas by offering guaranteed payments to key staff.

The value of such traders -- and energy traders in particular -- has risen sharply over the past 18 months, amid the continuing commodity price boom that has prompted hedge funds and top-tier banks to expand their commodity trading businesses.

Such new entrants are competing with the established bulge bracket banks in commodities such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Barclays Capital.

However, these banks have tied many of their senior traders into lucrative share deals, making it often impossible for them to join the new entrants to the commodities markets.

Banks appear willing to pay not only significantly higher base salaries to commodities traders, but also guaranteed bonuses to attract and retain such staff.

Guaranteed payments represent a salary and bonus package that will be paid to a trader regardless of the subsequent trading performance at the bank.

Among the biggest such recent guaranteed payments was one made by Deutsche Bank, who hired David Silbert as their head of commodities from Merrill Lynch, where he had headed up the bank's European commodity business. People familiar with the situation said Mr Silbert was on a three-year guaranteed payment worth £10m-£15m.

Deutsche Bank would confirm Mr Silbert's appointment but would not comment on his remuneration package.

Such guaranteed payments are fixed costs that could come back to haunt the banks in the event of a downturn, when revenues decline. Equally, however, the fixed nature of such deals will repay the banks for as long as the commodities boom continues.

Given such lucrative lock-in payments, aggressive new entrants to the commodities markets are increasingly being driven to look elsewhere to find top traders. In the energy industry, this has meant going directly to the big oil groups such as BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Total, and ChevronTexaco.

Industry insiders estimate that at least 30 traders -- including David Ferner, Christophe Balleaux, and Chad South -- have left BP in the past 18 months to go to either banks, private oil traders, or hedge funds.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (1/1/07; 12:31:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 150620)
HAPPY NEW YEAR ! ! !




Chris Powell (1/1/07; 10:10:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 150619)
Report predicts China's currency will gain 5% on dollar in 2007
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-01/01/content_5556950.htm
From Xinhua News Agency, Beijing
Monday, January 1, 2007

BEIJING -- The exchange rate of the renminbi, the Chinese currency, is expected to appreciate by some 5 percent to one U.S. dollar for 7.44 yuan, according to a Xinhua Economic Analysis Report released Monday.

The report projected that the pace of RMB appreciation would be faster in the first half of 2007 than in the second half.

Xinhua Economic Analysis Reports are regular products by a team of more than 80 economic analysts under Xinhua Economic Information Department. The latest issue of the reports reviewed the country's ten key indices in the economic and financial sectors and made projections on possible changes in the coming year.

In 2006, the value of the RMB rose 3.28 percent against the dollar, with an accelerating trend from 0.66 percent in the first quarter to 1.15 percent in the fourth. The central parity price closed at one U.S. dollar for 7.8141 yuan, the lowest of the year.

The report held that the short-term RMB exchange rate will be influenced by the fluctuation between the dollar and other currencies, but in the long run, it depends on the progress of China's exchange rate reforms. Stable appreciation in small steps is generally expected.

Earlier in December, China's State Information Center predicted a 3 to 4 percent appreciation of the yuan in 2007, while the Bank of America and Deutsche Bank expected a rise of 4 to 6 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively.

China's foreign exchange policy is in line with the pace of China's economic development and the daily floating band is enough to allow sufficient appreciation of the RMB, according to Chinese economist Fan Gang.

However, some economists argue that the appreciation of the RMB is a double-edged sword, as it will make Chinese exports more expensive and therefore reduce export volume. Some export-driven small and medium companies may not be able to survive and have to lay off employees.

"If China were coerced into really large appreciations of the RMB, it could face the same deflationary fate as Japan in the 1980s and 1990s -- and all this without reducing its trade surplus," said Ronald McKinnon in an article published Wednesday by The Wall Street Journal.

Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, said that there was no timetable for a further widening of the daily floating band between the RMB and the U.S. dollar.

China raised the value of yuan by 2 percent to 8.11 per U.S. dollar and started linking it to a basket of currencies on July 21 of 2005, and allowed it to move 0.3 percent above or below the parity rate against the U.S. dollar.

The report also projected that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 9.5 percent, lower than the estimated 10.5 percent for 2006. Major reasons for the slowed pace include the decline of global economic growth and the Chinese government's tighter macro-economic control aimed to curb overheated sectors such as investment and housing.

It forecasts that fixed asset investment will increase by 25 percent, compared with the estimated 26.6 percent growth for 2006. However, the report cautioned that investment can easily rebound for reasons of liquidity surplus, fast growing corporate profits and local governments' investment impulse.

The growth of fixed asset investment and credit both slowed down in 2006 as a result of hikes in the benchmark lending interest rate, which was increased from 5.85 to 6.12 percent.

It will be less necessary for the central bank to further raise interest rates in 2007, as too fast declines of investment growth will be no good to an anticipated slack in economic growth, but the possibilities of interest rate drops are even smaller, says the report.

The Chinese government has been trying to curb runaway investment to let consumption contribute more to economic growth, with measures to stimulate domestic demand such as improving the social security system, raising minimum wages and protecting the interests of migrant laborers.

Domestic consumption will grow faster in 2007, with retail sales of consumer goods to rise 15 percent year on year, the report predicts. The number is estimated to be 13.7 percent for 2006, 0.9 percentage points up from 2005.



Chris Powell (1/1/07; 10:00:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 150618)
10-gram gold contracts offered in India; gold deliveries rising fast
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Markets/Commodities/NCDEX_to_launch_10_gm_gold_contract/articleshow/1011695.cms
From The Economic Times, New Delhi
Monday, January 1, 2007

MUMBAI -- The National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange Ltd (NCDEX) will launch 10 grams immediate delivery gold contracts, to be traded on its electronic spot exchanges, in order to increase its bullion clients.

"It will be an immediate delivery contract in form of 10 grams gold coins for our spot exchanges and we plan to positively launch it before the first quarter of next year," NCDEX Head Business Development Shrikant Subbarayan told media.

The NCDEX electronic spot exchanges are expected to be rolled out from the middle of January starting from Rajasthan and West Bengal. The spot exchange-traded 10 grams gold coin contracts would be available for a cheaper price with assured quality and have a buyback option.

"If you buy a 10-gram gold coin from a jeweller or a bank it is usually 10 to 15 percent high in price while purity is a big question. One also faces a problem in buyback," he said. Through these contracts NCDEX is targeting to increase its bullion trade clients to five lakh to one million from current level of 25,000 to 30,000, he said.

The exchange had earlier started its futures mini gold 100 grams contracts and registered a delivery of 89 kg of gold during the first month of expiry of these contracts in December.

"The brokerage firms were able to tap the potential of small net worth investors who want to have gold as a part of its investment portfolio," he said. In its total bullion trade, NCDEX has witnessed an upswing on the deliveries.

In October a total of 743 kg of gold was delivered at the exchange. November saw a delivery of 940 kg of gold while December saw a record delivery of 1,104 kg. There was an increased participation from both the investor class and trading community in bullion either to take delivery or to make good returns.

"In the December month itself there was a return of 12 percent annualised, which is not possible through fixed deposit or call money market for a month," Subbarayan said.

If you buy gold in December and sell it in January through NCDEX, for a month you get 12 percent risk free returns whereas in other markets one cannot get a return of more than 5 percent, he said.

mikal (1/1/07; 09:56:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 150617)
(No Subject)
http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0102/p02s01-usju.html
Next Big Test of Power to Seize Property? | The US Supreme Court will examine whether a private company can demand payment in exchange for not seizing private property | Christian Science Monitor | January 2, 2007

mikal (1/1/07; 09:13:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 150616)
Affluent asians advance into luxury, quality and authenticity not unlike real gold
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20999508-643,00.html
Euro Fashion Invades Asia | Business | The Australian | Natasha Bita | January 2

Cometose (1/1/07; 06:16:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 150615)
COT
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm
Since my last look , the report dated Dec 26 (which may have little relevance during the holiday )
showed that the Commercials in

SILVER were net long 3000 contracts for the week

Copper were net long 1430 contracts for the week

Gold were net short 1333 conracts for the week



Knallgold (1/1/07; 01:44:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 150614)
2
"After he said that an alarm bell went off and I thought to myself maybe that is the point!!! Do the elites know something is going to happen over the long holiday weekend the masses don't? I mean why couldn't Wall street open Tuesday and take Wednesday off for Ford's funeral? "

Nah,too obvious,though I had the thought as well.

Paulson arrested?Forget it,we would know it by now.And ministers are immune.

melda laure (1/1/07; 00:54:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 150613)
na alye i laurea vinya loa
http://www.safehaven.com/article-6612.htm
Jane, stop this crazy thing!

(getting off the inflation roller coaster wont happen quickly, there's too much momentum for any "real" deflation just yet)



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