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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/1/2006 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) White Hills (1/1/06; 23:38:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 139928) Liberty Head I know that USA gold has somewhat relaxed the language and the subjects that can be discussed here; however you, Sir, have gone far beyond what would be normal a discourse in interjecting your radical beliefs by accusing the USA of murder, torture, rape, fraud and extortion at home and abroad. The shame you say you are feeling should be because of your outrageous statements about this country. Normally a malcontent like you would just be laughed at but during this time of war when men are dying to defend this country and at the same time make other men free it is no laughing matter. I pity you if you believe the garbage you spew over this forum. It make everything else you say irrelevant to any discussion on any subject. God Bless America. White Hills Knallgold (1/1/06; 23:08:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 139927) Weber/Steinbrück "When incoming Christian Democratic Union finance minister Peer Steinbrueck"Not to be picky,but Peer Steinbrück is member of the SPD,the so called "great coalition" is made of CDU and SPD. Waverider (1/1/06; 21:07:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 139926) CONTEST??....did I hear CONTEST 2006?? White Rose - please put me down for a POG high of $850.00 in 2006, with a close at $775.00. I think Bernanke and his helicopter $$ and an invasion into Iran will impact POG in 2006. We could also see POO hit $100.00. Cheers,Waverider Thoreauly (1/1/06; 19:31:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 139925) @ Liberty Head (#139920) Sadly, I agree, longing for the day when I can be a proud American once again. I doubt, however, that this will be possible under the aspices of the "Empire of Debt" -- http://www.lewrockwell.com/french/french35.html -- whose days look increasingly numbered. balzac (1/1/06; 18:58:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 139924) AU KARAT MY apologies , I hadn"t read far enough down to see your prediction, sometimes people think alike, maybe we are right???Balzac. balzac (1/1/06; 18:52:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 139923) TO 2006 To all goldbugs wherever you view this site.A HAPPY AND PROPEROUS GOLDEN NEW YEAR!!!My portends: Gold at 30% higher by June 1st 2006 = US$ 672.00Balzac The Invisible Hand (1/1/06; 17:41:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 139922) The best-kept secret The best-kept secret in the investment world is this:"Almost nothing turns out as expected"Forecasts rarely come true, trading systems never produce the results advertised for them, investment advisers with records of phenomenal success fail to deliver when your money is on the line, the best investment analysis is contradicted by reality.In short, the best laid investment plans usually go wrong. Not sometimes, not occasionally – but "usually’(Harry Browne, "Why the Best-Laid Investment Plans Usually Go Wrong", New York: William morrow and Company, Inc., 1987, p. 1)But of course, these are not usual times. Isn't what everybody thinks about the time at which she's living? MK (1/1/06; 13:38:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 139921) Cavan Man -- Gold Forecast 2006 2006 could be a breakout year. My $525 2005 forecast hinged on G-8 programmed dollar weakness. Instead we had the dollar and gold going in the same direction for most of the year. The obvious question is "If gold managed to rise over 25% with the dollar appreciating, what might it do should the dollar resume its bear market?"2005 brought us many surprises -- two of which I allude to below in my Man of the Year and Event of the Year choices, but none larger than gold's breaking its shackles with the dollar. Another big surprise for me was the changeover in the mainstream press from anti-gold to pro-gold. In the last two months of the year, many gold market articles on the finance pages started with "Gold pushed higher on the prospect of central bank buying. . ." How many of us would have guessed at that change?? Much of this was signaled early in the Financial Times as I brought up here in a previous post. It all culminated December 21st in a full page opinion section article headlined: "Precious mettle - Why the world is daring to get a grip on gold." (The "mettle" instead of "metal" is deliberate.) I cannot recall in all my years of reading FT a full page article in the opinion section on gold's prospects -- and a largely positive one at that. To me it signals acceptance of gold's new role in personal, institutional and official portfolios - a major crossover.One wonders what all of this might mean for the mining companies that have sold a goodly portion of their production forward at much lower prices and the bullion banks which have sponsored them. We could see a major Ashanti-style meltdown in 2006. I wouldn't surprised if we did. Although those who have acted against the gold price in the past have been humbled, I do not believe they have been taken out of the picture completely -- so we will still have bouts of price weakness as they attempt to assert their authority. There may yet be a battle between the commercial bullion banks and the international accumulators. Short-covering is likely come into play at any sign of weakness, and by the end of the year, we might be able to claim final victory in the long battle between the bulls and the bears._______________In the background, rising oil is consistently and constantly pushing the inflation rate in countries all over the world. High oil prices are here to stay and the reality will wreak havoc from end of the globe to the other. As a result, big-time investor gold demand has become global in scope. All investors -- large and small -- no matter where they live must hedge or lose to currency depreciation versus goods and services. Simultaneously, mine production has gone into a long term decline that might not right itself for a decade or more, and central banks are backing off their previous liberal policies with respect to their gold reserves. I don't think any of us can fully comprehend what central bank gold demand might do to the price particularly in light of the huge dollar reserves building up in the petro-states as well as the export-based economies. And then on top of it all, we have the "Big X-Factor" for 2006 -- the ascendancy of Ben Bernanke to head of the table at the Federal Reserve. Who knows what that might mean for the economy and gold? I have always wondered if Alan Greenspan acted directly against gold all these years through the New York Fed trading desk, but how can anyone really know? We might learn more on that score as 2006 and the Bernanke chairmanship takes on a character of its own.All in all, I agree with several commentators who have said:"Gold may have entered a new era."When you combine all of the above with the fact that none of the disturbing trends (the twin deficits, etc) driving gold demand has been addressed, it all adds up to what could be a breakout year for gold. Rather than a semi-objective specific dollar forecast like I made last year, I will just say that gold could experience a break out year in 2006. As is the case in any breakout, the top will be difficult to call. If I were to make a wild guess though, I would look for a interim top in the $760 range.___________________________As with any forecast published here, those trading on these opinions and forecasts take full responsibility themselves. Anything can happen and a down year in gold is not out of the realm of possibility. Liberty Head (1/1/06; 13:36:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 139920) 2006 - The Big Rise I am quite optimistic for the POG in 2006. Gold will continue to rise in value, while fiat will continue to decline in value.I must admit however, if gold went to $10,000, it wouldn't lessen the deep, profound shame I have for the torture, rape, murder, fraud and extortion the US gov't perpetrates with impunity at home and abroad. May 2006 be a year of growing vocal uprising among the decent people of the world."Beware of the risen people" – Thomas Moore, The Hunt for Confederate GoldBest Wishes el dorado (1/1/06; 13:01:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 139919) Happy New Year Here's wishing all of you a happy new year and a golden sunrise! Gold will reach 677.00 by April and 745.00 by year end. *el dorado* MK (1/1/06; 10:43:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 139917) My Event of the Year - Russia's announcement that it would purchase gold in the open market to bolster its reserves This announcement touched off a string of similar announcements from other central banks including South Africa's. An article appearing in China's Peoples’ Daily called for the Chinese central bank to increase its gold reserves from 600 tonnes to 2500 tonnes as a means of diversifying out of its huge dollar position. Government policy in China is often presaged with articles in the People's Daily, and the thought of China being in the market for that amount of physical metal is likely to loom large in the gold market in the months (if not years) to come. MK (1/1/06; 10:38:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 139915) My Man of the Year - Bundesbank President Axel Weber When incoming Christian Democratic Union finance minister Peer Steinbrueck publicly pressured Bundesbank to sell 120 tonnes of gold in Novermber of this year, president Axel Weber had an answer for him. Weber went public himself to say that the central bank would not cave-in to political pressure from the Angela Merkel government. "I assume," he replied angrily, "that we can agree to respect each other's responsibilities." One month later senior conservative lawmakers within the CDU fell in line with Bundesbank stating their continued opposition to gold sales. By taking this position, Bundesbank sent a loud and clear message that resounded in the gold market and bullion bank trading rooms around the world. Central banks can no longer be relied upon as a ready source of metal to support gold lending schemes. In early November gold traded in the $450 range. By December, it had pushed over the $500 mark and briefly nudged $540 per ounce. Weber's courage in the face of political pressure earns him our Man of the Year award. 24karat (1/1/06; 10:10:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 139914) 2006 Au price predictions After a nice 18% runup last year, I figure a healthy 30% is due this year with increased interest in the metal. This would put the price around $672. Put me down for $672 high and a $660 close.Happy New Year to all. I look forward to another year of intelligent financial conversation, even if it includes silver! Rad (1/1/06; 10:04:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 139913) Preparing to visit Iran http://www.wpherald.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20051230-124328-9385r German media: U.S. preparing Iran strikeBy Martin WalkerUPI Editor Published December 30, 2005 WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration is preparing its NATO allies for a possible military strike against suspected nuclear sites in Iran in the New Year, according to German media reports, reinforcing similar earlier suggestions in the Turkish media. The Berlin daily Der Tagesspiegel this week quoted "NATO intelligence sources" who claimed that the NATO allies had been informed that the United States is currently investigating all possibilities of bringing the mullah-led regime into line, including military options. This "all options are open" line has been President George W Bush's publicly stated policy throughout the past 18 months. But the respected German weekly Der Spiegel notes "What is new here is that Washington appears to be dispatching high-level officials to prepare its allies for a possible attack rather than merely implying the possibility as it has repeatedly done during the past year." The German news agency DDP cited "Western security sources" to claim that CIA Director Porter Goss asked Turkey's premier Recep Tayyip Erdogan to provide political and logistic support for air strikes against Iranian nuclear and military targets. Goss, who visited Ankara and met Erdogan on Dec. 12, was also reported to have to have asked for special cooperation from Turkish intelligence to help prepare and monitor the operation. The DDP report added that Goss had delivered to the Turkish prime minister and his security aides a series of dossiers, one on the latest status of Iran's nuclear development and another containing intelligence on new links between Iran and al-Qaida. DDP cited German security sources who added that the Turks had been assured of a warning in advance if and when the military strikes took place, and had also been given "a green light" to mount their own attacks on the bases in Iran of the PKK, (Kurdish Workers party), which Turkey sees as a separatist group responsible for terrorist attacks inside Turkey. Goss's visit to the Turkish capital followed the rising international concern over recent statements by the new Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that Israel should be "wiped off the map," denying the existence of Holocaust, and suggesting that Israel's Jewish population might be re-located to Europe. In a December 23 report, the DDP agency quoted an anonymous but "high-ranking German military official" telling their reporter: "I would be very surprised if the Americans, in the mid-term, didn't take advantage of the opportunity delivered by Tehran. The Americans have to attack Iran before the country can develop nuclear weapons. After that would be too late." The DDP report also said that several friendly Arab governments, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman and Pakistan, had also been informed in general terms that the Pentagon was preparing contingency plans, including "the option of air strikes," in the event of the new Iranian government precipitating a crisis. Arab diplomatic sources have told United Press International that they have been given no briefings on any policy change beyond President Bush's "all option are open." Bush's most recent such statement in public came on Aug. 13, during an interview at his ranch in Crawford, Texas, when he told Israeli TV: "As I say, all options are on the table. The use of force is the last option for any president and, you know, we've used force in the recent past to secure our country." Other NATO sources have told United Press International that "all this may be mood music, a way to step up the diplomatic pressure on Tehran." It is possible that leaks from NATO and German security sources are part of a ploy to convince the Iranian government that the Americans and their NATO allies are in dead earnest when they say a nuclear-armed Iran would not be tolerated, and that Iran had better start negotiating seriously. But the German media speculation about the supposed U.S. plans has been fueled by a number of high-profile visits to Turkey this month, including trips by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, by the CIA's Porter Goss and by the FBI Director Robert Mueller, who also delivered U.S. intelligence reports on Iranian backing for PKK operations aimed against Turkey. There have also been some significant Turkish visits to Washington, as reported by Der Spiegel. "Two weeks ago, Yasar Buyukanit, the commander of the Turkish army and probable future chief of staff of the country's armed forces, flew to Washington. After the visit he made a statement that relations between the Turkish army and the American army were once again on an excellent footing," Der Spiegel reported Friday. "Buyukanit's warm and fuzzy words, contrasted greatly with his past statements that if the United States and the Kurds in northern Iraq proved incapable of containing the PKK in the Kurd-dominated northern part of the country and preventing it from attacking Turkey, Buyukanit would march into northern Iraq himself," the German weekly added. The CIA Director's Dec. 12 call on the Turkish prime minister last for over an hour, far longer than customary for a mere courtesy call, and followed an even longer meeting with senior staff of MIT, Turkish intelligence. The Turkish Daily Cumhuriyet reported on December 13: "Goss also asked Ankara to be ready for a possible U.S. air operation against Iran and Syria." Der Spiegel noted Friday that the latest high-level visitor to the Turkish premier was NATO Secretary-General Jaap De Hoop Scheffer. This is not unusual, since Turkey is a member of NATO, but the coincidence of these various trips prompted Spiegel to comment "the number of American and NATO security officials heading to Ankara has increased dramatically." "In Berlin, the issue is largely being played down," Der Spiegel reported Friday. "During his inaugural visit with U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld in Washington last week, the possibility of a U.S. air strike against Iran 'had not been an issue,' for new German Defense Minister Franz Josef Jung, a Defense Ministry spokesman told Spiegel." The original story in the German press which provoked the wider media furore was written for the DDP agency by a veteran reporter on security and intelligence matters, Udo Ulfkotte, who has in the past been criticized in the German media for being "too close to sources at Germany's foreign intelligence agency, the BND" (Bundesnachrichtendienst). At the same time, Ulfkotte has himself come under scrutiny by German security services, and his home and offices have been repeatedly searched in the course of inquiries into allegations that he had published official secrets. White Rose (1/1/06; 09:13:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 139912) Unofficial New Year's contest -- gold high for 2006 and 2006 closing I guess that the high for 2006 when measured in US pesos is $900, and the final price for 2006 (1 year from now) will be $830.Anyone else want to try their hand at this? BillinOregon (1/1/06; 08:41:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 139911) 2006 May you have peace, prosperity, good tidings and happiness in 2006.Love the news, knowledge and demeaner that is exibited here kind people. YGM (1/1/06; 02:32:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 139910) Peace & Best New Years Wishes For All !!! I hope we all prosper and continue to share knowledge and civilly expressed opinions in 2006! Thanks for all the years gone by. Yukon Gold Miner (YGM)....Ken Goldilox (1/1/06; 02:31:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 139909) Russia Starts Cutting Off Ukraine Gas http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-russgas1jan01,1,2436665.story?coll=la-headlines-world snip:MOSCOW — Russia started reducing the pressure in its natural-gas pipelines to Ukraine today after Kiev rejected Moscow's last-minute offer to briefly delay a crippling increase in prices. The move toward a cutoff raised the possibility that European gas supplies also could be interrupted within the next few weeks.Gazprom officials said this morning that they would begin a partial shutdown in the gas lines on the Russia-Ukraine border, which delivers about 40% of Ukraine's gas and as much as 30% of Europe's.ADVERTISEMENT The state-controlled energy giant made its move after Ukraine rejected an offer Saturday from Russian President Vladimir V. Putin to hold off on a price increase on the heating fuel until April if Ukraine agreed to pay market prices after that date."Yesterday, we made an offer to the Ukrainian side. We were ready to compromise in order to provide comfortable conditions to Ukraine during the winter period. But we got a refusal," Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov told reporters this morning."As a result, we're reducing pressure on the pipeline," he said.Gazprom officials said a computerized delivery system would determine how to reduce the supply of gas to Ukraine while still ensuring full contract deliveries to Europe. Possibly, they said, they will cut the flow in the two pipelines that go most directly to Ukraine, while leaving uninterrupted three other Europe-bound pipelines, but that had not yet been determined.Russian television this morning showed workers at a control room in the town of Sudzha, near the border, scrutinizing computer terminals that control the giant red, yellow and gray gas lines that run across the border.In Ukraine, demands for a rate increase are widely seen as a response to the "Orange Revolution." The largely peaceful uprising a little more than a year ago toppled Ukraine's pro-Russian government and helped elect President Viktor Yushchenko, whose leanings are toward the market economics of the West."Russia's firm position that Ukraine should buy gas at European prices is certainly a reaction to the new political course Ukraine is pursuing now," Socialist Party parliament deputy Mikola Rudkovsky said in a telephone interview from Kiev, the Ukrainian capital.On Saturday, Putin had been more conciliatory. "Ukraine is not an abstract bunch of senior officials, and not a lot of oil and gas barons looking out for their own interests, but above all it is the brotherly Ukrainian people, and we must think about all aspects of relations between Russia and Ukraine," he said Saturday afternoon at a meeting with his Security Council.Putin instructed Gazprom to supply gas to Ukraine through the first three months of the year at current prices, provided that by the end of the day Kiev sign a contract agreeing to pay market prices thereafter. But Ukraine said shortly before midnight that it would not sign the document.Ukrainian lawmaker Rudkovsky said the events of the last few weeks had demonstrated Ukraine's continuing dependence on good relations with Moscow. "You can raise your campaign rating by struggling against Russia, but this is a very dangerous game in which you end up building a road which leads nowhere," he said.Russia is demanding that Ukraine begin to pay rates similar to those it charges Western European customers, which are more than four times higher. Ukraine has been paying the equivalent of $50 per 1,000 cubic meters in exchange for shipping additional Russian gas to Europe.Gazprom has demanded that Ukraine pay $230 per 1,000 cubic meters. The Ukraine government has said it is ready to pay market prices but insists on phasing them in gradually; Yushchenko is said to favor an initial increase to about $90."If Ukraine agrees to buy gas at $230, the consequences will be catastrophic," Rudkovsky said. "The chemical and metallurgical industries that now make Ukraine's economy highly competitive will immediately become unviable."This … will in its turn destabilize the national currency. And all of this will catastrophically affect the investment climate in Ukraine." -GoldiloxWhile Putin battles to keep his Iranian nuke contracts alive, he has energy-based political issues even closer to home. Mr Gresham (1/1/06; 01:27:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 139908) Success in the New Year in all you wish for, and work for!Still is an honor to be in company with those of such integrity. May it spread from here to all others in need of it. ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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