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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 7/1/2005
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Boilermaker
(7/1/05; 17:07:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 133696)
HUI signals gold a buy
Gold was down about 2% today. The HUI was marginally higher.
The folks who run the gold market have become all too obvious. They take down (short) the metal whenever an opportunity or need arises and cover their shorts on their shares at the same time. Conversely, they let the metal run higher and start shorting the shares just before another takedown.
Today they covered their share shorts. They're milking the black box hedge funds and poor saps who don't know the drill. It's like having a license to steal. We can take advantage of this. While most of us (I think) are not short term players we can see what's happening and take advantage with our incremental investing when oppotunities arise.
Camel
(7/1/05; 14:49:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 133695)
Dollar strength
Don't mean to be a wet blanket, but maybe the strength in the dollar is due to the increase in $ interest rates, which are now considerably above those for the Euro.
Topaz
(7/1/05; 12:46:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 133694)
Voyeuristically ...
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CBOT_USU5&v=s
...Friday's rarely disappoints eh?
Similar action in DX to the Dec/Jan rollover which ignited Buck and sent it on it's current charge North (not Gary ;-)
Can we perhaps now (again) cite repats as the DX driver ...methinks Yes however the nett Dollar amount this time through is a good bit less (given the higher relative Dollar exchange) and bodes ill for E/O/Quarter reporting.
Bond took a hit ...but there again, it stopped at a tad shy of 4.3% yield.
Rubicon or Maginot? Gee, now that's a poser!
I don't think we're looking at the BIG dump here given the way it stopped but, 1 day we'll look at this 4.3% level and collectively declare "Rubicon".
Silver ...Oh Boy, it's got some work to do now, but with 2300 contracts through the turnstiles and a nice uptick on LeaseRates, the glory days are still ahead. ID thru BD will see it SHINE imo.
Gold ...BumWad 'till August. (good term B-G/Span)
USAGOLD Daily Market Report
(7/1/05; 12:29:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 133693)
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The Daily Gold Market Report has been
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Friday Market Excerpts
July 1 (from MarketWatch) -- Gold futures fell more than $8 an ounce Friday to finish 3% lower for the week after the Federal Reserve raised U.S. interest rates.
With a holiday weekend looming in the U.S., traders also looked ahead to next week's Group of Eight summit in Scotland.
Gold contracts for August delivery closed at $428.80, down $8.30, on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Metals futures trading on the exchange closed early Friday and will remain closed Monday for the July 4th holiday.
"The Fed activity has really pulled the rug out from gold for some reason," said Kevin Kerr, president of Kerr Trading International. On Thursday, Fed chief Alan Greenspan and other central bank policymakers did as expected, voting to boost the central bank's target for short-term interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, to 3.25%, and signaled that further rate hikes are likely in the pipeline.
"Real speculation will begin with the next few meetings as rates reach 3.50%," said Thomas Hartmann, an analyst at Altavest Worldwide Trading, in a note to clients. "Greenspan & Co. appear to want to reach this plateau with little fanfare or worry, keeping their measured pace dull and simple, lulling the market in step."
But "questions about the U.S. economy will ultimately be faced in the coming months," he said. For now, the "inability of prices to hold above $440 puts gold on a downward tilt in the near term," Hartmann said.
The latest drop in gold is "not so much the holiday as the general skittish nature of gold bugs who have been burned by faded rallies before, including me," said Kerr.
"Seasonally, there is usually a top made about here so [the price decline is] absolutely no surprise," said John Stafford, editor of Stafford's Investment Strategy Letter, adding: "I always buy on days like this."
----(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)----
Survivor
(7/1/05; 11:45:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 133692)
North and Y2K
@Goldilox -
Yes, I do know what you mean. I was (still am) one of those 'pros'. In fact, I had the unenviable task of Y2K Coordinator for our medium-sized office.
We did a lot of research on the 'net and elsewhere. There was some well-informed material posted that helped us greatly with the analysis and remediation of our susceptible office systems. By comparison, Gary North was a bearded man in robe standing on the corner with an "End Of The World" picket sign. To make it worse, he left all that erroneous dribble up for months after the non-event.
OK, 'scuze my rant. Its Friday! (And BARGAIN DAY for any PM shoppers this afternoon!)
- Survivor
USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(7/1/05; 11:28:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 133691)
Don't forget...
http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/wilhelm.html
Details on this allotment of Wilhelm I gold German 20 marks (minted 1871 - 1888). Get them while they last.
TownCrier
(7/1/05; 11:18:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 133690)
Paper
When market players sense that their bonds, for example, have rolled into junk status with fears that the contracts (which is effectively what they are) won't be delivering as promised, the market response is a selloff in the price. You can probably recall many times that you witnessed various classes of bonds suffer a selloff (peerhaps some defaulting to worthlessness) even as the underlying currency held its ground or gained.
As time goes on, given the tightness of the physical gold metal market compared to the vast over-abundance of the corresponding derivatives (especially the price-setting futures market), it shouldn't surprise us to eventually reach days (or an irreversing trend) where the market's confidence (and corresponding price) plunges with regard to the highly leveraged and physically undeliverable promissory paper gold futures contracts.
Given the nature of each, futures contracts and metal, mere contracts are certainly NOT a true proxy for the benefits and economic bargaining power conveyed by actual metal ownership. However, until the market matures enough to recognize this, the price of the undefaultable metal will draft along passively in the wake of the dubious futures market and its price determinations. Hence, to anyone who currently understands the inherent difference in value between tangible ownership versus paper promises, days like these in which the futures have sold off present themselves as attractive opportunities to buy up the benefits of physical gold metal at nearly par with the deep discounting being applied by the market to the corresponding derivative pile of futures contracts.
Today's price action appears very clearly a NY COMEX futures phenomenon. A look at the daily chart shows that an early morning rising price promptly turned downward upon the 8:30am ET open of COMEX trading, and the downward path steeply accelerated as concurrent traders in the London gold market closed shop for the weekend.
To put a fine point on it, a question presents itself. When promissory bonds sell off, do you suddenly lose desire to bring home your paycheck? Probably not. Thus, if similar promissory futures contracts sell off, it does not stand to reason that you should be shaken in your drive to bring home tangible savings.
If you choose gold metal, and know what its unique benefits are, you will not be so easily rocked out of your lifeboat by (a superficial appearance of) turbulent waters.
R.
Goldilox
(7/1/05; 11:09:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 133689)
Dog Days
@ Gandy,
The ESF boyz seem to have given the pups a "play day".
Not too much "Independence Day" partying now, as we need them to resume "chomping at the bit" Tuesday morn!
CoBra(too)
(7/1/05; 11:04:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 133688)
PM's Tanking - Last Hurrah?
- For the managers of "Managed Markets Inc.", a subsidiary of your friendly TSY's ESF, dubbed -Exchange Stability For- the needs of Uncle Sam, the FED and its international minion CB's still clinging to Bretton Woods II. A proposition of fooling me thrice - and yes, THAT may be the problem!
... Or is it the upcoming Independence Day?
A country who is now dependent on much of the rest of the worlds savings to function may have lost a lot of what the founders fought for - including monetary affairs... and Independence, or has the meaning of the word undergone some hedonistic changes as well?
Happy long weekend to all friends - cb2
Knallgold
(7/1/05; 10:52:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 133687)
POG dive
Maybe Greenspan raised rates just to bash POG-what was this story about a huge Goldcall sitting at 445?The weight of paper...
Unfortunately Gold hasn't become a bargain in sFR. as it measily dropped ~100Fr/kilo. as the $ is advancing further.
Gandalf the White
(7/1/05; 10:42:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 133686)
OOPS -- The dogs took the day OFF !
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main_large.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1
AND, the "Banksters" on the COMEX will have given Sir GAB a new stack of RED "O"s at the $428 level on the P&F GOLD chart !
They sure have fun when the no one is looking, don't they ?
THANKS for the "early" 4th of JULY Birthday present !
YELLOW is now a gift at this price !
<;-)
mikal
(7/1/05; 10:42:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 133685)
@Goldilox
Re: "increasing volatility"
Crude oil +$1.80
Is this related to the rumored "terrorist" threat? It's consistent with the past couple weeks in any case.
CRB has also bolted up. Metals markets close early today?
Goldilox
(7/1/05; 10:34:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 133684)
Monkey
@ Slingshot,
Well, maybe a (not so) solid hold on 4th place in the division has me just a little "sensitive"!
Also maybe, the fact that I live only 60 miles from Anaheim and 460 miles from "home plate".
Just glad I don't have the typical "anger management" issues of some of today's players!
- LOL
Goldilox
(7/1/05; 10:25:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 133683)
Y2K scare
@ survivor,
Even a lot of computer pros were taken in by the Y2K scare. Much effort was expended to repair sleazy MS-based code, but little major damage resulted.
UNIX and MAC users knew their SW would not "blow up", but the real issue was whether data base programmers had encoded two-digit or four-digit "date codes" in their record processing algorithms.
It was one of the single most "sales scams" of the internet bubble, and the excess replacement activity also fueled a bubble of HW sales that bit the manufacturers in the A$$ in 2001-2.
As a retired storage professional, I remember incredibly obtuse messages even within the industry, so I cannot fault analysts who tried to decode those messages.
Bubble, bubble, toil, and trouble!
slingshot
(7/1/05; 10:25:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 133682)
OOOOOPS!
Goldilox. I was trying to inject some humor into this gold setback. Did not think it was about the Giants. Well I do get to put my foot in my mouth on ocasion
Slingshot-----<>
Goldilox
(7/1/05; 10:14:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 133681)
Rally Monkey
@ Slingshot,
As a "died in the wool" Giants fan, I find that video decidedly NOT FUNNY!
I'm off to Petco tonight to see if MY guys can keep their rally going against the division leader.
Go Gold and Giants - they both start with a resounding G!
Survivor
(7/1/05; 10:04:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 133680)
Gary North
Is this the same Gary North who "expertly" missed predicting the impact of Year 2000 by about 19 country miles? If so, anything he writes should be taken with a grain of salt.
- Survivor
slingshot
(7/1/05; 09:59:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 133679)
Rally Monkey
http://www.rallymonkey.com/video/kenindex.swf
Thanks, goldilox.
Slingshot------<>
Goldilox
(7/1/05; 09:59:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 133678)
WIld Move
@ Survivor,
THe last big down day - a few months ago was -13.
The "$6 rule" is more applicable to up moves.
Increasing volatility may see this disappear in both directions.
mikal
(7/1/05; 09:47:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 133677)
Fate bearing down on bureaucrats and state agents
http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north391.html
The Bureaucrats' Song And Dance by Gary North
"The looming bankrupcy of the federal government has it's advantages..."
Gary expertly draws some current portraits of entitlement programs on the precipice and why "the welfare chickens are coming home to roost". Obviously, by extension, the rest of the world will reverberate with similar repercussions.
Not surprising that gold is a household word in most of the world.
Survivor
(7/1/05; 09:16:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 133676)
Wild Move
Can anyone remember when we last saw spot swing more than U$6.00? In less than 3 hours, spot has moved down about U$10.00. A good day for bargain hunters!
Incidentally, the folks at INO must have started the holiday early. The spot quote at the top of this page is asleep.
- Survivor
Boilermaker
(7/1/05; 08:01:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 133675)
Hounds getting zapped
Hey Gandie, looks like someone put the electric collars on our poor hounds. Must be Friday before a three day (US) weekend. We need to figure out how to remove the batteries from those collars ;). Have a great weekend all you buggers out there
Boilermaker
(7/1/05; 07:30:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 133674)
Krugman on CNOOC/UNOCAL offer
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/27/opinion/27krugman.html?n=Top%2fOpinion%2fEditorials%20and%20Op%2dEd%2fOp%2dEd%2fColumnists%2fPaul%20Krugman
snip
"Unocal sounds, in other words, like exactly the kind of company the Chinese government might want to control if it envisions a sort of "great game" in which major economic powers scramble for access to far-flung oil and natural gas reserves. (Buying a company is a lot cheaper, in lives and money, than invading an oil-producing country.) So the Unocal story gains extra resonance from the latest surge in oil prices.
If it were up to me, I'd block the Chinese bid for Unocal. But it would be a lot easier to take that position if the United States weren't so dependent on China right now, not just to buy our I.O.U.'s, but to help us deal with North Korea now that our military is bogged down in Iraq."
comment
China has a treasury full of $ and a national oil company to shop with it. The US has no national oil company with which to buy deep storage oil. US is using the military to protect/obtain what China can buy peacefully.
Topaz
(07/01/05; 01:44:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 133673)
con-currency opinion.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/bloom062905.html
It must be something in the water as this fellow "bloke" looks similarly on "things" as mois.
BIG day ahead for Ag, I have great expectations for Silver from now to Bastille Day ...$25/25%
Buck currently on a binge. Deciding which is worse for S/Market, higher Oil or higher Buck?
One things for sure, a combination of both is disasterous.
We watch!
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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Centennial Precious Metals Gold coins & bullion since 1973 Denver, Colorado 80246-0009 We educate first-time investors! |
for quotes and purchase information.
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