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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 3/1/2005 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Black Blade (3/1/05; 23:56:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 129763) Scott Ritter http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=30587 I found an old link to the story (see link) Black Blade (3/1/05; 23:51:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 129762) Scott Ritter Yeah, it was all over the news a couple of years ago. He had attempted a "meet" at a McDonald's and the police swept in for the nab. Apparently it wasn't the first time either. Anyway, several of his apologists ignore the arrests and cite his background as a former UN weapons inspector.- Black Blade Goldilox (3/1/05; 23:01:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 129761) Credibility @ BB,I know nothing of Ritter's personal issues, but to suggest that his problems render him not professionally credible might be a case of throwing out the baby with the bathwater. Catherine Austin-Fitts spent years in court clearing her name for the "crime" of publicly revealing HUD fraud, so whistleblowers get turned into criminals by any means TPTB can find.The Admin's WH Press plant was recently revealed to run a male prostituiton website, but they're turning their back on his behavior, because his politics are acceptible.Thankfully, I don't have to endorse someone's behavior to study the merits of their work. The folks he's telling on are no more "clean" or credible than he is. Only the actual evidence really matters, and all too often it becomes overburdened by politics and prejudice. Chally (3/1/05; 22:49:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 129760) but seriously.....Thank GOD there's no inflation!! As in, the 56oz 'half gallon' of ice cream at the OLD half gallon price!....but take heart, hedonically speaking, you'll never miss the 8oz. difference. See, we upped the butterfat content and calories per serving, so the price is ACTUALLY falling! Quite an improvement, no? ;) Goldendome (3/1/05; 22:47:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 129759) monetary Inflation soars, Dollar steady, bonds up, Deflation (???) http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/fekete/2005/0301.html Evidently, Dr. Feketes article, "Decoy of the Falling Dollar" caused enough questioning e-mail (including my own) to his box, that today he is out with further explanation and reasoning on the subject, titled, "Greenspan has taken the horse to water -- but can he make it drink?" and he does admit to some conjecture.Similar to Knotakare's statement earlier regarding the bond market as a safehaven, Fekete believes that the Fed in collusion with Japan may be setting up to massacre the dollar bears thereby intensifying the deflationary spiral they professed to fear only a couple of years ago. (Snip below from the article)..."Note that the Fed's contingency plan to steer away from hyperinflation is essentially deflationary. It is designed to massacre all short sellers of dollars mercilessly by relentlessly pushing interest rates further down. The trouble with this plan is that it makes bond speculation on the long side of the market risk-free. If you now recall that speculators frustrate the Fed's anti-deflationary measures by speculating, risk-free, also on the long side of the bond market, then you will understand why I am inclined consider the deflationary scenario as more likely than the inflationary, at least for the rest of this decade, but possibly for the next one as well. Be prepared for further mind-boggling increases in the money supply as the Fed is desperately pumping liquidity into the economy. Contrary to expectations the dollar will not get much weaker, and may indeed get stronger because the new money, rather than flowing to the commodity market as the handlers of the speculators would hope, is flowing to the bond market where speculation has been made risk free by the Fed's foolish policies."....----------------------------------------------------------------------------I think the Good Doctor may be way out on the limb here, it certainly is different than what we have come to "reasonably expect" from our teachings of supply and demand. A good article for those who want to explore a different take on things. Chally (3/1/05; 22:40:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 129758) Geeez, I take it you're being serious Mr. Blade? Ah'm not puttin the guy up for sainthood, mind you, and I guess he's not really central to the story, but that's a seriously sad charge(conviction?)..btw, did that surface pre/post WMD? Black Blade (3/1/05; 22:17:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 129757) Scott Ritter I'm afraid that Scott Ritter lost all credibility when it was revealed that he was convicted of trying to engage in ... ahem ... "adult" activities with a minor. Shades of Michael Jackson if you get my drift.- Black Blade Chally (3/1/05; 21:18:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 129756) Thanks GAB and TC. Here's something all of us will want to keep an eye on. Couldn't link to this, but it's another offering from InvestorInsight. Sinclair long ago went on about this scenario. Interesting that once again Scott Ritter, who was one of the first to cry "NO WMD's here"! (Iraq) and a favorite whipping boy for Hannity and the Neo-Con press, has surfaced again. Given the subject matter and it's import, he just might have some credibility this time. Anyway, here is the story.....WHY IRAN IS NEXT In recent weeks, the news media has been overflowing with reports on the increasing tension between the U.S. and Iran, supposedly based on the Islamic country's unwillingness to drop its nuclear programs. A clear-cut case of another tyrannical nation whose government needs to be ousted in order to make the world a safer place, it seems. But WWNK has found information that's largely been flying under the radar screen of the mainstream press... and that might paint an entirely different picture. On February 18, Scott Ritter, ex-Marine and former United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) weapons inspector who played a major role in Iraq, dropped a bombshell during a speech delivered to an audience in the Capitol Theater in Olympia, WA. The event's sponsor, United for Peace of Pierce County (UFPPC), a Washington state activist group that nonviolently opposes "the reliance on unilateral military actions rather than cooperative diplomacy", had invited Ritter and independent war journalist Dahr Jamail to talk about the war in Iraq. In his speech, Ritter claimed that President George W. Bush has received and signed off on orders for an aerial attack on Iran planned for June 2005, citing an anonymous official as the source of this information who--according to Ritter--was involved in the manipulation of the election outcome in Iraq, which reduced the percentage of the vote received by the United Iraqi Alliance from 56% to 48%. Ritter also stated that "this would soon be reported by a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist in a major metropolitan magazine", an allusion to New Yorker reporter Seymour M. Hersh, believes the UFPPC. In a January 17 article in the New Yorker, Hersh had written that "Strategists at the headquarters of the U.S. Central Command, in Tampa, Florida, have been asked to revise the military's war plan, providing for a maximum ground and air invasion of Iran." But why? Is Iran really such an imminent threat that it would justify invading that country, with a U.S. army already stretched to the max by its commitment in Iraq? Aside from the 'official' nuclear-threat argument, there may be other, economic, reasons that seem far more logical. In October 2004, William Clark, award-winning writer and author of the soon-to-be published book Petrodollar Warfare--Oil, Iraq, and the Future of the Dollar (spring 2005), gave his opinion on the reasons for a pending U.S.-Iran crisis in an essay titled "The Real Reasons Why Iran is the Next Target: The Emerging Euro-denominated International Oil Marker". Clark blames "unspoken macroeconomic drivers" for the U.S.' determination to attack Iran, in particular the fact that the Tehran government plans to open a euro-based oil exchange in 2005 or early 2006, which--if successful--"would solidify the petroeuro as an alternative oil transaction currency, and thereby end the petrodollar's hegemonic status as the monopoly oil currency." This, says Clark, would deliver a devastating blow to U.S. corporations, which own both the London's International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the main global oil traders. All three current oil markers, the West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), the Norway Brent crude, and the UAE Dubai crude are dollar-denominated. Iran, however, has required payment in euros for its European and Asian/ACU exports since spring 2003. "It would be logical to assume the proposed Iranian Bourse will usher in a fourth crude oil marker--denominated in the euro currency," predicts Clark... a probable scenario in light of the fact that "the European Union imports more oil from OPEC producers than does the U.S., and the E.U. accounts for 45% of imports into the Middle East." In June 2004, the UK Guardian noted that "Some industry experts have warned the Iranians and other OPEC producers that western exchanges are controlled by big financial and oil corporations, which have a vested interest in market volatility." BP, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, proud owners of the IPE since 2001, refused to comment. In light of the fact that Iran, holder of the second biggest oil reserves worldwide after Saudi Arabia, exports 2.7 million barrels of crude/day and produces 13 million tonnes of petrochemicals/year, the Guardian foresaw bright prospects for the new oil exchange. That is not the only reason, though: Other recent events indicate that Tehran's IPE and NYMEX competitor might be just what a large part of the world has been waiting for. Not only has the euro substantially risen against the dollar since late 2002--in May 2004, the countries using the euro as their currency increased from 12 to 22. Within the last two years, notes Clark, Russia as well as China raised their central bank holdings of the euro, "which appears to be a coordinated move to facilitate the anticipated ascendance of the euro as a second World Reserve currency." According to a July 2004 article on Rigzone.com, an insider website for the oil and gas industry, Chris Cook, a former IPE executive turned independent consultant, commented that recently the Saudis, too, have declared their interest in the project. Since 9/11, says Rigzone, "Saudi Arabian investors are opting to invest in Iran rather than traditional western markets as the kingdom's relations with the U.S. have weakened." A lot of good reasons for the U.S. government to set their eyes on regime change in Iran, says William Clark. And it wouldn't be the first time, he says. His award-winning 2003 essay "The Real Reasons for the Upcoming War with Iraq" suggests that Saddam Hussein signed his own death warrant in 2000, when he announced that Iraq would no longer accept US dollars for oil being sold under the UN oil-for-food program, but that the country's official oil export transaction currency would be switched to the euro. ------------------------------------------------------------Hmmmm......"Of all the enemies to public liberty war is, perhaps, the most to be dreaded because it comprises and develops the germ of every other. War is the parent of armies; from these proceed debts and taxes... known instruments for bringing the many under the domination of the few... No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare." --James Madison, 4th U.S. President, Political Observations, 1795 Gonlyold (3/1/05; 19:13:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 129755) Still need that spell checker Oh, well. Gonlyold (3/1/05; 19:12:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 129754) Gen Mtrs Flopping @ Fer Res.GM announced that they were going to make On Star, the eves droppping cell phone, standard equipment on all their vehicles by 2010(?). Could it be that people don't want Big Brother cars? Druid (3/1/05; 19:09:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 129753) @TC Druid: TC, many thanks for your very clear and descriptive response. I'm heading out of town as of this minute and will get back to you upon my return. Have a great evening good Sir. Ned (3/1/05; 17:37:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 129752) CRB up a hair ! Even with PM and oil weakness the CRB still eeks out a small gain........ +.26 ...305.26There's going to be a terrifing RUMBLE in 2005 !! Are you ready? Ned (3/1/05; 17:32:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 129751) GAB Thanks for the (2) posts today. Your thoughts have helped immensely, please discuss strength/weakness in the USD ANYTIME! Cavan Man (3/1/05; 17:23:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 129750) Oil and Gold http://www.futuresource.com/charts/micro.jsp?s=GC1%21&s=DX1%21&s=TYXY&s=CL1%21&s=&s=&s=&s=&p=D&v=15&b=LINE&d=LOW I am not a very good chart reader but to me, the gold and oil charts look like you could throw a blanket over them. I've noticed this apparent relationship more than once over the years--not sure of the meaning. TownCrier (3/1/05; 15:44:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 129749) Monetary wrap-up The prevailing conclusion to my msg#: 129725 this morning is that monetary inflation is a force to be reckoned with. And whereas the business cycle would suggest balanced expectations for deflation, the reality is that central banks have been brought into being in modern form with no small part of the intent to forever goose away the deflationary turns of the cycle.Thus, in a monetary world that can be characterized as a predominantly one-way trend of inflation building upon inflation, as PIMCO has pointed out in a previously cited article, tangible assets (as is gold) make for good portfolio holdings in this economic environment.Buy gold, then lift up your feet and go with the flow.R. USAGOLD Daily Market Report (3/1/05; 15:08:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 129748) Page Update! http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.htmlThe Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.Tuesday Market EventsGold moved lower today, to $432.66 in subdued trading. Dollar-watching was still the order of the day, and the American currency appreciated broadly against major currencies. This was bad news for gold, which declined steadily in New York trading to test market support in the $430-432 range. Positive momentum from last week's short-covering rally now appears to have run its course, at least for the moment. Although many analysts are still short term bullish, gold will need a significant dollar-negative event to push through stubborn technical resistance at $438.After two solid weeks of dollar depreciation, a correction was in order and it came from economic data in Europe. German unemployment rose to a seasonally-adjusted 11.7%, a postwar high. "The psychological effect of this unemployment figure is absolutely catastrophic,'' said Martin Huefner, chief economist at HVB Group, rather dramatically. "People are psychologically shocked and that may cause them to delay purchases of consumer durables.''This news added to the anemic growth outlook for most of Europe, and combined with robust growth in the American economy was enough to send the euro (and gold) tumbling."The euro has come under quite a bit of pressure, and that is weighing down on the gold market,'' James Moore of TheBullionDesk.com said in an interview reported by Bloomberg. "Currencies will provide most of the direction for gold prices this week,'' he added.Despite today's setback, many analysts still expect gold to break through the $438 barrier and trade higher, although no one could be sure when. "Exchange rates will continue to play the key role in guiding the gold price," Barclays Capital said in their daily report.John Reade of UBS Investment Bank expected gold to be higher for the remainder of the year, but expressed concern about possible IMF gold sales...-----(see url for full report, 24-hr newswire, market prices)---- mikal (3/1/05; 15:00:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 129747) "Currency Market" in a nutshell http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BC1D9779C%2D354E%2D4EAA%2D90EB%2D2AA3FB3D0CCB%7D&siteid=mktw Currencies: Dollar ends mixed ahead of Greenspan - Leslie Wines - March 1, 2005"Market to focus on Greenspan on Wednesday."Here is a headline that in one year would need a new "nutshell" if the goal is to spin the news. mikal (03/01/05; 14:22:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 129746) Gold is portfolio protection Today that means gold protects a certain quality of life and standard of living that's just not possible any other way. Would you expect that in say, a year or less the global economy would support a continued boom in raw material consumption and consequent CRB/commodities outperformance? If so, diversify your holdings and venture into options, stocks or futures as the underlying health of those derivative venues cannot buckle unless stressed. At the same time you can take advantage of a smooth transition in all markets and financial entities- governmental, public and private. Good on you then. knotakare (03/01/05; 14:05:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 129745) Re: Fekete and Yen Carry Trade I'm not sure some of you understand what Fekete is really saying. He is basically saying that the Fed has set up the US Bond Market as a safe haven, in an effort to stem disinflationary forces bearing down on the good ole USA.If many can understand how the gold market has been managed for the past 40 years, it's not hard to see how this could apply to the US bond market.And it is a brillant way to prop up a dying currency, at least in the intermediate term.Towncrier, I do not accept everything that Fekete says is right, I just think that he may be on to something. I think his thinking is thought provoking.Everyone will have to decide for themselves. Humble Pie (03/01/05; 13:47:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 129744) Dr. Fekete I wonder who put loco weed in his pipe tobaco. TownCrier (03/01/05; 13:08:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 129743) A diversification within a diversification http://www.usagold.com/gold/special/TwentiesAlert.html Call and ask how you can prudently diversify, and also seek to maximize your profit potential through a diversification comfortably WITHIN your diversification. The knowledgeable brokers at USAGOLD-Centennial have been assisting profit-minded clientele for years in the savvy trading of graded gold $20s as a golden means to ultimately ratchet up the weight of their total gold holdings. Call and inquire -- this program may or may not be right for you. The staff at USAGOLD-Centennial can help steer you on a diversification path that's firm and tailored to your investment needs and goals.See url.R. TownCrier (03/01/05; 12:48:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 129742) PIMCO does a pretty good job cutting it straight Here is more... an excerpt from commentary one year ago that I archived called "What Are Commodities and Why Invest in Them?"(excerpt) -- Taken together, commodities form an asset class-similar to stocks and bonds-that can diversify a portfolio and provide a hedge against rising inflation.Most assets do not benefit from rising inflation, particularly unexpected inflation, but commodities usually do.By contrast, stocks and bonds tend to perform better when the rate of inflation is stable or slowing. Faster inflation lowers the value of future cash flows paid by stocks and bonds because those future dollars will be able to buy fewer goods and services than they would today.Commodities may also react differently from stocks and bonds to other changes in economic or market conditions. For example, if OPEC unexpectedly reduced the supply of oil by a significant amount, the price of oil, gasoline and heating oil would likely rise. Natural gas prices might rise as well if industrial consumers switched from oil to gas. Rising energy costs could lead to higher commodity prices overall, which would presumably weigh on corporations’ bottom lines and possibly result in inflation that would weigh on bonds.Commodities may also provide a hedge against other "event risks," a catchall phrase meaning the risk of war or other geopolitical event that could cause other assets to fall.Because commodities are distinct from financial assets and react differently to changing economic conditions, commodities can diversify a portfolio of stocks and bonds.In a diversified portfolio, assets do not move in sync with each other, which limits the volatility of the portfolio. Lower volatility reduces portfolio risk and should improve the consistency of returns over time.As a rule, individual commodities or even the asset class itself would be too volatile to be the only asset in a portfolio-few investors would consider this anyway -- so the volatility of commodities should be considered from a portfolio perspective rather than separately. In a portfolio setting, the volatility of commodities, stocks and bonds should complement each other because these assets do not move in tandem with each other. In other words, volatility in an asset class that is not correlated with the volatility of other assets in a portfolio is a key source of diversification.Because of its potential to reduce risk while improving returns at the same time, diversification has been called the only free lunch in investing, and it is the primary reason for investing in commodities.---------------And if anything is a truism, it is surely this: Everybody likes a free lunch.Diversify. Choose gold. Call USAGOLD-Centennial and own gold today!R. Federal_Reserves (03/01/05; 12:39:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 129741) Auto Sales Collapsing General Motors (GM 35.52 -0.13) has posted a larger than expected decline of 12.0% in US sales (consensus -4.9%) while Ford Motor (F 12.58 -0.07) has reported a US sales decline of 3.0% (consensus -6.2%)... Soon only the rich will be able to afford a new car. Real wages are falling for most workers in the USA. In twenty years the US will be like CUBA. Millions of beat up heaps roving the streets. 10% of US will be living high on the hog, everyone else will be poor. The majority will be old and poor. TownCrier (03/01/05; 12:13:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 129740) PIMCO's Dialynas talks tough on debt http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh68959_2005-03-01_16-58-39_n01269319_newsml [PIMCO is a major holder of of U.S. government debt. It is one of the world's largest fixed income players, managing global assets of about $445 billion.]NEW YORK, March 1 (Reuters) - On the ski slopes, Chris Dialynas likes to go downhill fast -- and that's exactly where he fears the U.S. economy could be headed unless it cures its dependency on debt.He believes Americans conditioned to consume must learn to save and that "the time for extreme sacrifice is upon us."Dialynas argues the U.S. must also curb its reliance on foreign capital to fund its massive trade deficit.Countries owed many billions of dollars by the U.S. would also share the pain under draconian U.S. policy initiatives advocated by Dialynas, managing director at the world's biggest bond fund PIMCO.Stressing that his views are not those of PIMCO, Dialynas believes the U.S. should seek renegotiation or even forgiveness of its debt with countries that have large trade surpluses with America.He argues that the United States has borne most of the costs associated with big changes in the global economy and America's creditors should now take the strain to help correct severe trade and financial imbalances.His drastic recommendations include: a 15 percent cut in U.S. social spending; an increase in U.S. tax rates; U.S. capital controls to discourage capital flight; and a 40 percent revaluation of China's yuan currency.Dialynas expressed concern that "the potential exists for policy makers in a few Asian countries to immediately direct a sale of the holdings of their U.S. assets."If this ever happened, Dialynas argued, it would produce a "very hard landing" in the United States, which could include a rapid increase in interest rates, a sharp depreciation of the dollar, and a stock market fall.^----(from url)----^Should the International Monetary Fund create a new program along side the one for HIPCs, but aim this one at HIRCs -- Heavily Indebted RICH Countries? Let's not hold our breath.However, any way you rationally slice it, the dollar does not emerge an unscathed beneficiary as we inevitably transition one way or Another out of this politically unacceptible, unbalanced position in the international economic and monetary system.Choose gold today in preparation to see you come shining through the fallout.Final word goes back to the article:.....Asked if he could really foresee a day when [debt forgiveness for the U.S.] could happen, he replied: "The simple answer is 'no'." Asked if he still advocated such a U.S. debt renegotiation or even default, he said: "Ultimately, if all this debt keeps accruing and keeps accumulating, the only way out is to restructure the debt -- default is the last ditch.""There are other countries in history who believed they could just print their currency or expand their money supply and everything would end nicely. And of course, we know things in those instances didn't end nicely."....Choose gold. Get your necessary diversification started today. Call USAGOLD-Centennial for access to professional consultation and gold that is priced right to fill your needs.1-800-869-5115R. Topaz (03/01/05; 12:10:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 129739) ...and there they all are, http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=CL&o=DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st= , sensible little Buggers! Topaz (03/01/05; 12:01:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 129738) Making sense of the Market. http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=CL&o=DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st= Another observation we can make is gleaned from the Dollar/Oil perspective.ALSO about Feb 10 (ref. previous post) we see a return to "sense" in the Oil price as it ceases to track DX and begins to run contra. A check of Bond Yields shows a similar turning point.So, from Feb 10ish to now the Markets - Bond/Dollar/Gold/Oil, have been acting "sensibly"Of course, this CANNOT be allowed to continue ;-( Great Albino Bat (03/01/05; 12:01:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 129737) Gave's thinking that the Dollar will become scarcer and more costly, i.e. go up in value Gave says:"The most interesting part of the BoK's announcement is that, on aggregate, the growth in foreign central bank reserves has started to decelerate. This means that we are moving from an environment of plentiful, and weak, US$ to an environment where US$ aren't as plentiful (and weak) as they once were. So anyone who has borrowed in US$ could be scrambling to meet its obligations."My two cents worth:This might be true, if all other factors remain equal - but they won't.As foreign central banks deposit less bonds (from their reserves) in the Fed, the Fed will simply substitute foreign-owned bonds, with bonds bought from the US Gov't. which means, quantities of cash in the US banking system. That money, in the US, is very inflationary. As foreign-owned savings leave the Fed vaults, their place will be taken by bonds bought with printed up paper dollars.This is the beginning of the "big float" that so worried this Forum some time ago. Foreign-owned debt turning into money within the US, in huge quantities. That means a dollar FALL, together with higher interest rates.Opinions welcome!The GAB Gandalf the White (03/01/05; 11:39:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 129736) Sir GAB !! "keller politik" -- That's my policy. I hope this helps.Owner of a GOLDEN cave !<;-) USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (03/01/05; 11:38:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 129735) SECOND EDITION: Newly Updated -- Written for Today's Market! http://www.abcs-of-gold-investing.com/ Great Albino Bat (03/01/05; 11:33:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 129734) Ned - your frustration with an apparent reversal in dollar down trend Well, I think of Bill Bonner's wise attitude: we know what we think SHOULD happen in the market, but it may or may not happen, or happen when we do not expect it.My guess is people get tired of a trend, and speculators know this. So, they figure out when the trend is sort of "worn out", and that is the weak point where they can bet against the trend continuing, and - sometimes, I guess - they win. ("A speculator who dies rich, has died before his time") So we see the price of gold is softening. Those who were going to buy, did so and pushed the price up. Then the desire for gold petered out; sure enough, that's when the speculators or the dastarly "cabal" come in - when the buyers are tired out - and bring it down again.Eventually, the urge to buy takes over again. People come in and bid the price up, once again.I have said before, "I only KNOW one thing: paper money always loses value, and gold will prevail eventually."So no matter how many games the "cabal" and the speculators play, my position remains and will remain unchanged.The old bat doesn't care for those games - he wants to sleep well during the day!These gold games we are witnessing, cannot go on forever. They may go on longer than we think, but not forever. The tactics we are witnessing are only BUYING TIME for the international monetary system. Long term, the tactic is fruitless and will fail. Much higher prices of gold will prevail, because ever so slowly, gold is moving into hands that are going to hold on to it, no matter what.The Swiss have traditionally adopted a "keller politik" - a "cellar policy": buy gold, put it in the cellar and forget about it. That's my policy. I hope this helps.The GAB Topaz (03/01/05; 11:29:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 129733) The "power" of PaperGold. http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GC&o=100/DX&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=LINE&st= As Comex Gold is now in PaperTrading mode ie: Mar is not a delivery month, it's interesting to analyse the first two months of '05 from a Gold/Dollar perspective to perhaps shine some light on the road ahead.Two days prior to the Dollar rally in late Dec, Gold started to tank. It continued leading the Dollar until equilibrium at approx 10 Feb when they both reversed. Feb of course WAS a delivery month and Gold was moving briskly within Comex as the price declined ...17000 odd Contracts in fact.With Gold/Dollar reversing in unison, the Gold movements abated. March IS a Silver delivery month AND we don't as yet have a replacement for Swiss Bullion in the Market so any GoldPrice shennanigans this month are and will be reflected in Comex via Silver delivery notices methinks. TownCrier (3/1/05; 10:36:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 129731) knotakare, Fekete's latest I would recommend that you take extra care before accepting his latest commentary. You can send a job to your printer, but that that doesn't necessarily make it right. In other words, don't believe everything you see in print. Taking Fekete's article together with the Mauldin-Gave article posted by Chally, this is one of those times.R. knotakare (3/1/05; 08:54:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 129730) Goldendone&Challey: $ conundrum and Carry Trades Yes, the Fekete article was very thought provoking. It helps me understand why there may not be a Dollar crash anytime soon. It also helps me understand that in "managed markets", there are no possible economic models that will assure us of eventual outcomes.Feteke does mention that he believes the Carry Trades are "sucking the life blood" out of the world's productive enterprise. I tend to agree with this.If this is true, there is only one decent investment that a person can make, to preserve savings, and hedge against losses in the "managed markets". That is physical gold and silver.The $US Tresury bonds rate of interest used to be refered to as "the risk free" rate. I think the new standad is gold. Sinclair says that gold will be accumulated by Central Banks big time starting in 2006. I don't know how he can know that, but if you are "managing markets", the leverage from gold is astronomical IMHO.This is all very interesting, that's for sure.kak Goldilox (3/1/05; 07:55:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 129729) DX strength @ Ned and ChallyAdd this observation to the "conundrum". Previously, we saw often DX strength in foreign markets, with the US open bringing downturns as the big boys sold in the FOREX. More often lately, we are seeing the DX fall overnight and jump again in the US open.It looks more like ESF sponsored "homeland defense" to me now, instead of the foreign intervention we witnessed so often last year. The "talking heads" signal weakness and the traders swarm in to swallow up those who jump at the "bait".CNBC has even started playing Nicholson's line from "A Few Good Men" as a tagline for some of their segments.Col Jessup: "You can't handle the truth!". jenika (3/1/05; 07:53:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 129728) @Slingshot Hi Slingshot. Well I would like to say that my husband saw my reasoning, however, I think he just got sick of me nagging him... wore him down. My sister, well instead of giving her reasons why I think gold will keep going up I gave her 5 reasons to hold metals.Those were....1. Do not count on your superannuation - consider it a tax until you get your money out. The government will keep changing the rules.2. Where else can you put your money. Property is too expensive - we both know the hassles with tenents too. Consider gold a piece of property but easier to sell.3. There is no mention of Gold on the Australian Tax website - why is that? Is it because they cant tax gold when you sell it? As far as Im aware there is no GST on gold either. (equiv. to VAT in the states). Maybe someone can answer that for me as Ive never sold gold. 4. If someone sue's you, they cant get what they dont know about. 5. She has already invested into the share markets via her superannuation, why put all her eggs in one basket? Gold is a great safety net because its private. As for me, Yeah I guess Im a goldbug now, how I got here is when I started reading about 911 - a year after it happened. Then I came across an article on the gold dinar, and I guess something just clicked because after that I started reading about gold. So putting the Euro into the picture it seemed like a war on currency more then a war on terror. I also have some silver so maybe im just a metal bug? Ned (03/01/05; 04:16:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 129727) slingshot "On my command....release HELL !" Ned (03/01/05; 04:12:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 129726) Chally For the life of me I can't figure it out. Everyone and his brother were bad mouthing the US$, even Greenspan, up to and including the end of 2004. Suddenly an abrupt turnaround has taken place and the dollar has stopped its decline and a host of $ bulls have surfaced. Your article from Mauldin goes around and around the bush explaining the reasoning for a strengthening dollar in 2005 and frankly I don't see it.Every bear cited debt and deficits for the reasons for the dollar to fall and fall it did. However the debts and deficits for the most part have not changed. In some cases some deficits have increased (ie: trade) therefore where does the argument come into play now for a strengthening buck?? TownCrier (03/01/05; 02:46:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 129725) Druid, notes and money in the bank The easiest way to see when (or if) the Ben Franklin under scrutiny is in a state of money-ness at any given time is to recall some of the basic money supply components.Most basic is the M-1 measure of money supply which is defined by currency (held by the public), travelers checks, and demand (checkable) deposits.The M-2 measure of money encompasses the M-1 components and also included are savings deposits, small time deposits and various money market accounts.While Ben Franklin is in my possession (or in the till at a store) it is among the currency in circulation and thus counts as part of the official money supply as defined and measured by the above criteria.When I deposit it in a bank, say my checking account, the size of my account increases (as a numerical entry) by $100, but the Franklin note has concurrently left public circulation when it sets in the bank till and is thus no longer counted among the money supply -- otherwise the bank would be guilty of double-counting one-hundred dollars.Technically, what happens is the Franklin note gives up its $100 monetary ghost which then resides within the monetary system in a spiritual (digital) form as a portion of the bank's liabilities which is attributed as part of my checking account (a demand deposit).In this instance, the physical body of the Franklin note retires to a non-monetary reserve status of vault cash which can be counted toward the bank's supply of reserve requirements, but isn't counted as money. This is all done on the asset side of this particular bank's balance sheet.It is the liability side of the balance sheet on which the money resides and where the official supply here is measured.To carry this one step further and demonstrate how the money supply may be expanded, you need only to imagine that the bank now holds among its assets a greater fraction of cash than mandated by the Fed as required reserves. As the bank lends this available cash out into circulation again for example, Ben Franklin then becomes counted as part of the money supply again -- even as my own checking account remains $100 greater than it was prior to my initial deposit of that note.As a result of the new loan, the money supply has grown.The currency>>reserve>>growth mechanism works exactly the same even under a gold standard.I wonder how many people are comfortable with the notion that a gold coin is (behaves as) money while it circulates, that it ceases to be money when it is deposited into a bank, and that even a standard gold-based money supply grows (inflates) as loans are sought and granted.As thought is given to this, the thing to come away with is a better understanding of the true nature of money and the vacillating nature of the circulating medium (currency) as it relates to the money it merely represents on one hand or the reserve asset function it serves on the other.Considered evaluation, especially on the central bank level, argues that gold is underutilized in a currency function; meanwhile it is more robust and best employed as a superior reserve asset -- as a tangible mark(able)-to-market wealth asset that is more suitable for this reserve asset function than a monetary (representative paper or digital dollar) "unit of account" ever could be.I know this is a major wrangle for the mind to grasp all in one go. Take two aspirin and call me in the morning(?).R. Chally (03/01/05; 00:42:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 129724) Goldendome, Sir Knotakare- more strong $ arguments. Can it Be? http://www.investorsinsight.com/article.asp?id=jmotb022805 What really bothers me, other than the fact that so much of this is still pretty hazy to me.... (still wading through Another/FOA archives trying to decide just where we are in that scenario-- and now to top it off, how THIS fits in)....is the fact that so many of us are in the "worlds awash in liquidity exported by U.S. to return as hyperinflation when CB's start to unload $$'s" camp, that it feels very 'majority opinion-ish' which is starting to spook me. ANY of you good Sirs please feel free to rebut,bolster, or otherwise comment on this piece....I'm still way back on the learning curve. ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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