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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/1/2005
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

mikal (1/1/05; 22:15:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 127861)
Thai bhat, neighbor currencies expected to outperform
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=reutersEdge&storyID=7216889
Asian Currencies Seen Rising Again In 2005
by Rajat Bhattacharya - January 1, 2005

mikal (1/1/05; 18:33:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 127860)
Fiat frat party househopping: 'Slide in '05'
http://www.twincities.com/mld/twincities/business/10540707.htm?1c
St. Paul Pioneer Press | 01/01/2005 | Dollar's slide expected to continue in '05


melda laure (1/1/05; 17:41:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 127859)
Fannie's covered' 5 billion in private placement?
Sir the Forest: welcome! (If we haven't been introduced yet.)

A day or so ago, they had some poor survivor asking the reporter "Where are the americans!?". You notice she didn't beg "where is the UN?" or where is the IRC etc... For better or worse the world still looks to us as the last best hope of desperate causes, and for good reason, despite all all our numerous faults which the forum members can attest to. It is the nature of free people to act without being told- both here and in that other "land of the free" (Thailand) and in the "holy land" (sri-lanka) where the locals have amply demonstrated their commitment to their countrymen and foreign guests. I also see that the peoples of the UK have privately already contributed as much as their government has "pledged".

Sir YGM, already the year has started out better! The old exhortation of village elders on this continent has ever been "prove now that you are true people and not animals!" by which they mean "demonstrate your generosity". In fact all this chest pounding is getting to be a bit annoying, I suppose we can blame it on that "stingy" comment. At the least we can momentarily forget the mess that is Iraq (and the bigger tragedy that is Palestine).

Sir White Rose, I sympathise with your anguish- there is nothing "appropriate" about catastrophe. Like the sanctimonious morons who asked Jesus "who screwed up? The cripple or his parents?" What sort of question is that? Yet the only answer is still the same. "so that the glory of God may be revealed". The other answers: "God got you into this mess, let him get you out" are simply insane. Better something than nothing at all.

On a different note, Sir Townie: do you think all those FNM repos were in part related to that "private placement" in FNM because of arm twisting by the Fed? A secret bailout? Well, call it a gentlemens agreement. I have this picture in mind where Greenspan calls up the banks with the biggest collection of Fannie paper and says "In order to stay in the game I'll "let" you swap some bonds for stock.- or you can just watch the whole she-bang founder..."

In fact I can see Bob Rubin working the phones "let me tell you about a deal you cant refuse". So much for a "great short".

I have a prediction for 2005. An ounce will still weigh an ounce, green grass will still be green, and a dollar will still be intrinsically worth less.

na alyei i vinya loa!


mikal (1/1/05; 17:38:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 127858)
New Year financial/investment info set to bolt out of the gate
http://framehosting.dowjonesnews.com/sample/samplestory.asp?StoryID=2004123116400005&Take=1
US Political, Economic Calendar - Week Ahead


White Rose (1/1/05; 17:34:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 127857)
Let me try to explain myself
I do believe that the market perceptions and market realities are tightly linked. I do believe that the value of the dollar is related to the perception of America's military power. I do believe that the dollar is close to a critical level.

It is my guess that if the war effort in Iraq gets further sandbagged (such as a cut in the land transport by the military) that would cause great concern across the world. The comparisons to Dien Ben Phu (defeat of the French in Vietnam over 50 years ago) would be apt. Even if the Americans believed this really did not affect things militarily, the world wide perception might be just what it would take to push the dollar into collapse.

A collapse of the dollar implies a leap in gold. A leap in gold implies that those who are short gold are ruined.

I leave it to others to see that the impulse to start other wars and to go nuclear would be very high.

My next leap is that I do believe that the government has a secret plan to deal with a financial collapse which would be put into operation quickly. Like all secret plans to save the world, it will have significant drawbacks.

I still say that it is plausible that the sweep of all these events could occur (or start to occur) within one calendar year. I am not saying it has to, but 2005 could be a famous year like 1968 which is a non-stop thrill ride full of surprises.

As I said before, happy new year.


mikal (1/1/05; 17:12:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 127856)
Happy New Year
Today's Headline Roundup:
Chicago (IL) Tribune- Turkey Launches New Currency
ABC News- Sri Lanka Brewery Now Producing Water
CBS Marketwatch- Russia OKs $18 bln Siberia-to-Pacific pipeline: report
CBS Marketwatch- Venture-backed IPO proceeds more than triple in '04
Chicago (IL) Tribune- Wall Street Watching for Market Shift Bloomberg- Dollar Declines Against the Euro, Yen on U.S. Manufacturing, Jobs Reports
Bloomberg- U.S. Two-Year Treasury Note Declines, Capping Its Worst Year Since 1999
Los Angeles (CA) Times- China Draws In Foreign Retailers
Los Angeles (CA) Times- Judge Blocks Cap on Chinese Textile Imports
Los Angeles (CA) Times- Wal-Mart Lawsuit May Grow
Los Angeles (CA) Times- Stock Sales by Insiders Jump 20% in 2004
(January 1, 2005)

YGM (1/1/05; 16:39:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 127855)
spotlite.....If I may answer your question.....
..one post and a reply start a thread and it was obviously probably not a wanted topic....Hope you'll stick around and post again...YGM

spotlight (1/1/05; 15:05:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 127854)
post deletion
Site manager:

Why was my post, "Misinformation" deleted???

Great Albino Bat (1/1/05; 12:17:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 127851)
White Rose: surely you have read this...

"The Burden of Empire" by Garet Garrett?

Remarkably accurate description of our time, written sometime after WWII.

I see one copy for sale at abebooks.com

You may be right in your predictions for 2005; however, I am repeatedly amazed at how SLOWLY things happen. But, there are such things as "discontinuities". The pressure builds under a volcano, until finally, one day - Boom!

The day-to-day price of gold is immaterial. This "thing" is going to blow, that's a certainty.

To all: best wishes for the New Year!

The GAB

YGM (1/1/05; 11:18:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 127850)
Did You Know You Could Have this Free Service...?
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/products/neic_data_services.html
By Cell Phone, Pager and email..real time warnings of World wide Quakes....This service might have saved some lifes if everyone knew about it...Scroll page to bottom....YGM

YGM (1/1/05; 11:01:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 127849)
GLD...ETF...Buys more Gold......
http://streettracksgoldshares.com/us/value/gb_value_usa.php
another 3.11 T...Now back up to 94.86 T.....Playing the Market like those in the know of Manipulation game...IMHO..

YGM (1/1/05; 09:47:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 127848)
Many Eyes Glued to this Map
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/recenteqsww/
Hoping there is not worse to follow....Daily we await the next phase of activity, hoping that the worst is over...YGM

Clink! (1/1/05; 09:26:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 127847)
A Good New Year to all at the Forum !
And to White Rose, that's the most depressing piece I have read all year ! Sadly, I think you are on the right track, but, looking back (with a degree of disbelief in some cases) at what has happened over the last couple of years, I would make a small wager that the details will still surprise us. For me, the really interesting point will be if/when the frogs realise that they are being parboiled. The pain of staying in the hot water is worse than the risk of jumping out of the pot. And if one frog jumps, will they all jump at once ?
I just have the uneasy feeling that we will the experience the Chinese curse, "May you live in interesting times".

C!


White Rose (1/1/05; 08:51:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 127846)
In 2005, things fall apart
My prediction for 2005 is that things fall apart quite rapidly. My sense is that we are going to be living through the 1929 crash, the great depression and World War II all on hyper-speed.

Right as 2005 starts, the dollar is wilting. Once it is convincingly below 80, things are in trouble.

In Iraq, 700 election workers based in Mosul quit last night. The war and the election are collapsing. Once the US cannot supply its bases by land, the world will assume that the US is defeated. That perception will cause a further, fatal collapse of the dollar.

So, gold starts its giant, swift upwards arc. My prediction for the top (in a few years) is $6,400 an ounce. But at the present moment, the rise in gold causes collapse of banks, stock market, brokerage houses and the mortgage industry. The US government nationalizes virtually everything to keep some Americans in food, money, and fuel.

Somewhere in here, we discover that the sole purpose of Homeland Security is running massive martial law/police state. Conspiracy theorists would have loved to gloat about their advance knowledge of this, except that the government shuts down the internet except to those who are "certified" by the government or Microsoft. Bill Murphy cannot show his amazing record of gold manipulation to anyone, since it becomes knowledge forbidden by the state.

Somewhere in here peak oil raises its ugly appearance, as there are more and more blackouts around the world. In the US, oil just gets quite expensive.

Somewhere in here, bad things and war are raging around Taiwan, Iran, and North Korea. The few survivers of the US military in Iraq finally walk into Kuwait.

As mountains of debt collapse around the world, the chances are slim that people have much time to discuss the lack of free elections anywhere around the world.

There is also a strong likelyhood of additional super-disasters because of global warming, melting polar regions, vast water pumping to get out the last drops of oil, and irresponsible tweaking of the earth to get images of 40 km into ther interior.

Now I am mad about getting this far without saying something about Bush and the supreme court. Use your imagination.

OK, so that is the worst case by far. I still say that this could be an interesting year when the ship of American Properity sinks beneath the waves. Have your lifeboat ready.

Happy New Year.




R Powell (1/1/05; 08:01:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 127845)
Maybe, just maybe...
I can post the first message of the new year?
What is it? An early book review of Marc Faber's "Tomorrow's Gold". The review so far, as I'm only just over 100 pages into the book.....is...!!!
happy weekend and happy new year!
rich



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