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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 3/1/2004
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Black Blade (03/01/04; 23:58:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 117929)
Pimco Buys TIPS Before Inflation on Bush Spending, Fed Inaction
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_us&refer=us&sid=a_DU2NIQ3nio

Snippit:

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., the world's largest bond mutual fund group, is making a bet that the Federal Reserve will belatedly acknowledge the threat of accelerating inflation. That's why Pimco, as the firm is known, purchased about $3 billion of U.S. Treasury inflation-linked securities at the government's January auction and may buy more in the months ahead. ``The writing is on the wall,'' said John Brynjolfsson, 39, who oversees more than $10 billion of TIPS as managing director of Pimco's Real Return Bond Fund in Newport Beach, California. ``Disinflation is near the end, and we are in the process of turning the corner and into a reflation environment.''

Black Blade: Nevertheless, the massive creation of USD in accelerating as foreign interests struggle to prop up the US currency (backed by something absurd and meaningless as "faith and credit"). The dam is springing more leaks daily and not enough fingers to plug the holes. Better get a "Golden Lifeboat" as soon as possible.


steady (03/01/04; 23:55:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 117928)
day ja vue all over again
wow like wherent all u wave raiders out here yesterday bout the same time.
conditions erriely the same eh wave height the same ,depth and frequency of pulses are similar wonder if the set waves tomorrow will be effected by the negative tides, you have looked in the tide book havent you ?

steady (03/01/04; 23:51:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 117927)
1st gold 2nd silver 3rd oil?
Record influx of hedge funds blamed for high oil price
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1077690813205
Snips:

"...
The record levels in crude futures trading have been repeated in other commodities in recent months including gold, silver, platinum, copper and even soybean oil.

uh um do i hear increase the trading margins. uh no echo there . ahaahaha aeheheheheheh. dang i tried.

Black Blade (03/01/04; 23:49:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 117926)
Study: Up to 40% of California firms plan to move jobs out of state
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20040227-9999-1b27exodus.html

Snippit:

As many as 40 percent of California's companies are planning to move jobs out of state, a study commissioned by a group of top chief executives concluded yesterday. The study, conducted by San Francisco's Bain & Co. on behalf of the California Business Roundtable, also said that 100 percent of the respondents have an unfavorable view of the state's business climate. The study said that half the companies interviewed have decided to stop adding more workers in the state.


Black Blade: After the above the rest of the article is "spin" and "overly optimistic" in my opinion. One might also assume that Silicon Valley is finished to a large degree as "computer sciences" is a dead end career choice as cheaper comparable labor and prices are to be found offshore in SE and Central Asia (notably in India where a US software engineer makes an average $75,000/year and Indian software engineer can be hired for about $12,000/year). That of course does not include cheaper prices for goods and services in that and other industries. With a grossly overvalued US dollar (already having declined 30% in the last two years), a weaker dollar is a must if we are to compete for a piece of the global economic pie as global "competitive currency devaluation" runs amok.


steady (03/01/04; 23:47:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 117925)
closed sysytem/ deflections.
everything up but gold, deflect de monies into udder things to deflect the outflow of fiat debt into real thing, greenie even said so basically by saying the run up would be unimpeeded in well basically ebryting sept dat dang barberic metalk. let copper, zinc , cobalt asphalut, the san andreas fault, scrap mettal. rhodium, lithium opps no not thatstuff hahahahh but all other products of the earth that way they can conrtoll gold that much longer as they are able to track the money flows, heck u think those city lights arent timed for a reason, a five min delay may mean less esf intervention.as everything is connected and watched especially the charge card digits on any given day, watch the p[ulses of traffic, controlled by red and green, speeders get caught in the gaps, :+)


Rimh (03/01/04; 23:45:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 117924)
Copper demand
A source of mine told me that copper demand from China is so strong that refineries can't process it fast enough and are competing heavily (lowering there processing costs) for raw ore from miners in order to get enough ore to keep up.

Black Blade (03/01/04; 23:37:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 117923)
Market Wrap Up - Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Snippit:

Our government's unfunded liabilities have risen to over $44 trillion and are rising by over $2 trillion a year. There is simply no way out and the only option left is to inflate or die. Does anyone reading this really expect their local or national representative to level with the truth that we are broke and don't have the means to pay benefits? All I see and hear is politicians from both parties promising me more cookies and lollipops.

The mindset in Washington is that politicians must continue to spend money. It is the only reason for Washington's existence. Politicians love to hand out cookies and lollipops to the voters. The majority of congressmen are economically illiterate. There is always a well of money somewhere which politicians can tap in order to keep the flow of cookies and new lollipops to voters at election time. This year is no different with politicians in both parties promising more and even bigger entitlements to voters.

As a result of America's twin deficits (trade deficit and budget deficit) the dollar will head lower, much lower. The loss of 28% of its value since 2001 has done very little to address the nation's trade imbalance which is structural. The recent trade deficit figures indicate that we continue to import more capital goods into this country, while our exports of capital goods continue to decline despite a falling dollar. We are also importing more oil and paying a higher price for that oil. The trade deficit is structural and will continue to climb until the dollar loses half of its present value. When that happens, Americans will no longer be able to afford to buy foreign cars and electronics. But we will still be importing capital goods that we no longer manufacturer here and we will still be dependent on foreign oil to run our economy. That dependence will only deepen during the twilight of the oil era.

A falling currency translates into higher prices for the things we import into this country. While higher prices may eventually weaken demand for foreign made goods, it will not get rid of our need for basic necessities. If we burn more oil and natural gas, we will simply have to pay what the market dictates. We are no longer in control of our energy future. In fact we are looking head on at another energy crisis or series of energy crises this decade.


Black Blade: Good article though not much said about the PMs. Mostly has discussion on energy and the falling US dollar. I think Puplava has a good handle on the US economic situation (decidedly poor prospects). Meanwhile if you haven't got your portfolio insurance by now you have my sympathies.


Black Blade (03/01/04; 23:24:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 117922)
Energy futures prices continue to climb
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=GenIn&ARTICLE_ID=199769

Snippit:

HOUSTON, Mar. 1 -- Energy futures prices climbed Friday as markets continued to react to bullish reports of low US inventories of crude and petroleum products.

With US inventories near record lows, petroleum product prices may be in for a long bullish haul if the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries follows through with its decision to reduce its quota production ceiling by 1 million b/d to 23.5 million b/d of oil, effective Apr. 1, while eliminating previous overproduction of 1.5 million b/d, analysts said.

US gasoline stocks are "dangerously" low just months ahead of peak summer demand, partly because many refineries have shut down for seasonal maintenance. Any disruption could reduce gasoline supplies to the point where the US might have to import more at a higher price, analysts said.

"In the short term, the market is in fine shape on [gas] storage, but there are legitimate concerns about supply and demand over the long term," Enerfax analysts said. "There are questions about whether production will be up or down this year, and if the economy is on the upswing, it means increased demand."


Black Blade: I doubt we will have to think much about increased demand from an "upswing" in the economy. With 5 weeks of "draw season" for NatGas we will certainly fall below the minimum 1200 bcf level and probably the critical 900 bcf level before it's all over. Spring maintenance will crimp gasoline supply as refineries close for the change over to Summer blends (including several new ones added this year through 2010). Fortunately there will be no impact on inflationary pressures thanks to the BLS "core rate" for non-essential items like food, energy, shelter, etc. in spite of the need for industry and feed stock for manufactured goods (besides US manufacturing is moving offshore anyway and not coming back) ;-)


TownCrier (03/01/04; 22:58:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 117921)
Inflation manifest
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040301/markets_usa_1.html
NEW YORK, March 1 (Reuters) - Platinum eclipsed the $900 an ounce mark for the first time in nearly a quarter century as U.S. stocks and the dollar rose on Monday after manufacturing data indicated a hiring rebound may be on the horizon.

Gold popped over $400 an ounce -- still $30 below the 15-year high it hit in early January.

Oil prices hit post-Iraq war highs on Monday, inflamed by low U.S. inventories and worries about political instability in producer nation Venezuela.

NYMEX April crude settled up 70 cents to $36.86 a barrel, the highest price since shortly before the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in March last year.

Oil prices have jumped more than $4 since OPEC agreed last month to cut supply quotas by 4 percent starting on April 1 and rein in production over existing limits.

-----(from url)-----

Low interest rates provide poor compensation for purchasing power losses as currency depreciates and prices inflate. Give gold a go. It's still an ace up the sleeve.

R.

Sundeck (03/01/04; 22:48:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 117920)
Strong rand knocked gold output in 2003
http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1558057-6078-0,00.html
Snips:

"...
South Africa's gold production decreased by 4.9% to 375.8 tons in the 2003 calendar year, down from the 395.2 tons produced in the previous year, the Chamber of Mines (CoM) said in a statement.

...

The gold mining sector was forced to counteract the effects of the strong rand by mining at higher average grades, but this did not assist in boosting production to a level closer to that achieved in 2002.
..."

Sundeck: SA production down...yet another reason why central banks will have to "sell more gold to fill the supply/demand gap"??

Never mind, the price is going up nicely as it is.

Sundeck (03/01/04; 22:33:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 117919)
Record influx of hedge funds blamed for high oil price
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1077690813205
Snips:

"...
The record levels in crude futures trading have been repeated in other commodities in recent months including gold, silver, platinum, copper and even soybean oil.

...

Hedge fund money exits from the Dow Jones when they forecast the equities market will go down, and enters in the energy market, whatever oil fundamentals say," said one frustrated European refiner.

...

The head of a US hedge fund said the dollar was central to the story. He said: "Market participants use cross asset investments, buying gold or oil as a hedge against a fall in the dollar."

..."

Sundeck: Hedging against a fall in the dollar? No...they wouldn't do that, would they? Interesting brief read on the games hedge funds play...

Gandalf the White (03/01/04; 21:35:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 117918)
Sorry, Sir Rich --- I forgot something ! <;-)
Hi-Ho Silver, AWAY !!!
<;-)

Druid (03/01/04; 21:34:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 117917)
OPEC's Production Cuts, Internal Restraints Keep Prices Stable
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000102&sid=aHQxhy.P5TL8&refer=uk
Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- In the early hours of March 20, 2003, Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia's oil minister and the most influential member of OPEC, was in the shower in his Riyadh apartment when his phone rang. On the line was Claude Mandil, executive director of the International Energy Agency, a Paris-based organization of 26 industrialized countries that coordinates the release of Western oil stocks in times of emergency.

A U.S.-led coalition had crossed into Iraq that morning, and Mandil wanted to be sure that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would stand by its commitment to make up for any shortfall of oil. Mandil says al-Naimi told him OPEC would step in to fill the gap if needed.

OPEC's reaction underlines the extent to which the organization, whose 11 members from Indonesia to Venezuela pump a third of the world's oil, has reestablished its credibility, tempered internal squabbling and reined in its poorly disciplined members.
***********************************************************

Druid: It's a good thing the campaign in Iraq is going well. I'd hate to see inflation affect oil prices like it has copper, steel and everything else under the sun with the exception of workers. Their hiring/input price is being deflated down so that they can become more competitive, productive and efficient which will help them acquire those items that are inflating away. It's pretty interesting how China can't control it's demand for copper and steel but can control it for oil.

Gandalf the White (03/01/04; 21:33:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 117916)
Sir Rich --- Are you here -- or still out pouring "mud" ?
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SILVER,PYPA[PA][DA][F!3!1.0!]&pref=G
TODAY is your Double Top BREAKOUT on the P&F chart!!!
New price OBJ is --- Are you sitting down ? ---
$8.15
<;-)

Goldilox (03/01/04; 21:03:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 117915)
China Copper demand
If China sucks up all the copper, there won't be enough left for a proper still! Maybe TPTB will wake up when they run outta moonshine!

We could really scuttle their boat by repricing "shine" in "shiney".

Goldilox (03/01/04; 20:56:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 117914)
Fireplaces and other appropriate recycling
Do all the CABAL stooges have fireplaces? At market open on all the continents the gold buyers jump in, followed quickly by the CABAL short-shifters. Pretty soon they will all have tons of little green fire starters, but at least they'll save resources by not using their gas-fired log ignitors.

Interestingly enough, we keep hearing that coins will soon be worth more than "face" for their metal value. At what point will dollars be worth more for their paper value?

There's a Weimarism for you!

Hopefully that's the point where all of ours have been exchanged for machshiney!

Druid (03/01/04; 20:55:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 117913)
Copper Surges to 8-Year High in London as Chinese Demand Grows
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000102&sid=akcb3gdCtCMA&refer=uk
March 1 (Bloomberg) -- Copper rose above $3,000 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange for the first time since August 1995, bringing the year's gain to 31 percent, amid forecasts that demand will outpace production as China's economy expands.

Prices for the metal, used in wiring and pipes for manufacturing and construction, have surged as inventories slumped to a 5 1/2-year low. Output in 2004 may fall short of demand by as much as 850,000 tons, or 5 percent, forecast Stephen Briggs, an analyst at Societe Generale in London.

``It's been Chinese buying overnight that's really triggered the latest push,'' said Ingrid Sternby, an analyst at Barclays Bank in London, in an interview. ``The Chinese physical market remains very strong.''

China last year passed the U.S. to become the world's largest user of semi-fabricated copper products such as pipes and foil, said Wang Jun, an analyst at state-run Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. China's demand grew 18 percent a year in the past decade to 4.1 million tons in 2003 as it produced more appliances such as air conditioners as well as power cables and transformers.
*********************************************************

Druid: More non-existent inflation data is surfacing around the world. It looks like Chinese demand is definitely being setup to be the culprit. I'm still waiting for the law of supply and demand to somehow pertain to physical Gold and Silver. Oh well, watching them trying to put out all the other fires will be interesting enough.

Goldilox (03/01/04; 20:37:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 117912)
Gov't gold
@ Glennh10:

Governments do not as often "buy" gold. They have developed much more efficient procurement procedures over the millenia, like war, tribute, taxation, and confiscation. Considering the real cost to citizenry, it just makes the sale doubly reproachful.

But you didn't hear it from me!

(:^)

Goldilox (03/01/04; 20:29:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 117911)
Steel shortages
Biolermaker's link
snippet:

"On top of this there is also a shortage in dry bulk shipping capacity. Especially critical when as much as 500 million tonnes a year of iron ore has to be shipped
around the world - plus another 150/200 million tonnes of coke. With around 500 dry bulk cargo vessels in operation, each carrying on average 1.2 million tonnes per year, that means an annual shipping capacity of 600 million tonnes. Clearly, global trade in ore and coke is already hitting the limits of current shipping capacity."

Goldilox:

There's that durn shipping issue AGAIN. Just when $ Bill and I had it all sorted out. How about this. Take the US Navy mothball fleet in Alameda and sail them to the nearest dock to a steel mill, disassemble them and melt them down. That way, there's no empty vessel to return. It probably sounds too much like a "tree hugger" idea. The Navy Recycle? Omagod! I bet they put a stop to making diving reefs out of them right quick! They might even confiscate a few back from the greenies.

TownCrier (03/01/04; 20:28:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 117910)
Thanks
Thanks for the perspective, Belgian.

You're right... no need to decipher everything. Not everything is worth the effort, what with red herrings and all.

R.

glennh10 (03/01/04; 20:08:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 117909)
Re: Banks Sell Gold
In the mainstream news, isn't it odd that central bank gold is always "sold"? Never is the event framed from the perspective that "X,XXX tons of central bank gold were "bought"."

TownCrier (03/01/04; 20:06:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 117908)
A point to ponder
http://afr.com/articles/2004/03/01/1078117360662.html
From Sundeck's article on potential renewal of the central bank gold agreement:

The group of at least 15 banks ... may lift their sales caps on bullion to 2500 tonnes over five years from 2000 tonnes in the current agreement... "The market can absorb a slight increase," said Joe Foster, who manages $US290 million in gold-related investments for the Van Eck International Investors Gold Fund in New York. "We need their sales, or there wouldn't be enough supply."

-----------------

We might ask ourselves why it is that any gold-oriented financial/investment agent would be concerned with physical supply issues if we were to pause long enough to consider that he should most naturally deem a simple price-rise as the suitable solution to any real shortage problems.

R.

Goldendome (03/01/04; 19:58:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 117907)
Hi-Yo Silver...Away!!
Gold/Silver ratio now at 58. Recall, that end of May last, it was over 80 !!! Hi-Yo!!

Boilermaker (03/01/04; 19:39:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 117906)
Steel Shortage
http://www.issb.co.uk/pdf/200402_china.pdf
Not to belabor the steel issue but it does have an impact similar to energy, it goes into many products especially consumer durables and construction. The link is a concise and current analysis.
BLS will have a hard time trying to cook this one out of the soup.

I would like to see a chart comparing the prices of various metals including gold, silver and platinum. It seems that gold has some catching up to do. I know that many here at the forum including me have seen the connection of oil and gold but now there is another factor at work trying to pull the barbarous metal out of the shadows.

Has this message reached the folks on the stock market promotional TV networks?

Sundeck (03/01/04; 19:08:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 117905)
Banks may sell $41bn of gold
http://afr.com/articles/2004/03/01/1078117360662.html
Snip:

"...
European central banks may agree to sell as much as $US32 billion ($41billion) worth of gold in the next five years when an accord that has helped support prices since 1999 comes up for renewal this year, a survey of analysts and traders shows.
..."

Sundeck: An update on the Washington Agreement...may be renewed "as early as March".

Druid (03/01/04; 18:53:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 117904)
Steel prices soar 66% in a world market 'gone mad'
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/manufacturing/2004-02-20-steel_x.htm
By Barbara Hagenbaugh, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — Shortage fears are leading to a rapid rise in steel prices, squeezing U.S. manufacturers already reeling from a deep three-year downturn.
The price of a ton of hot-rolled coil steel in the USA hit $482 this month, up 66% from the recent low set in June, steel consulting firm Meps International said Thursday. The price rise comes not long after President Bush ended tariffs on imported steel in December, which was expected to lead to lower prices.

Prices are rising because of a variety of other factors, most notably skyrocketing demand from China's rapidly expanding economy. Last year, China's steel demand rose 38 million tons, the equivalent of the annual steel usage in Mexico and Canada combined, says Peter Fish, managing director at Meps in Sheffield, England. The more China buys, the less steel is on the market.

Supply concerns are so acute that there are reports of some steel-using firms hoarding the metal, compounding the problem. Nearly half of steel users said at least one supplier had canceled an order in January, according to a survey of steel users by the Precision Metalforming Association.

"The world's gone mad. I've never seen anything like this," Meps' Fish says.
**********************************************************

Druid: This article is a little dated but still is a great read. The lack of supply in any item to which there is a demand for will always result in higher prices. Throw in unrestrained dollar creation and you have the recipe for runaway inflation. Further compounding the problem is "hoarding" (sound familiar) the stuff which will add even more pricing pressure.


Humble Pie (03/01/04; 18:53:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 117903)
Post #117898
Belgian : what a masterful way of stating the situation. Keep it up.

Max Rabbitz (03/01/04; 18:49:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 117902)
Platinum over $900
Well over $900 today. I guess Platinum is not quite the threat that gold is. But that makes gold the better bargain.



Dollar Bill (03/01/04; 18:40:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 117901)
.,.
Clink! That is genius.
I was talking to a guy from the FDA today. Food and Drug Admin. He buys organic. He says he knows too much. He also said this important thing. He said the Japanese are buying a large amount of the US beef and farm industry.
That was news to me. I guess that is the "proof" I was waiting for that the Japanese are being allowed to use thier
money to buy up food assets. I just figured they had been promised food in the future no matter what happens. The big Stop and Shop chain in the northeast is owned by the Dutch I heard today. I guess we are selling America. Global economy and all its attendent ills, here we come.

Boilermaker (03/01/04; 17:26:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 117900)
Steel Problems
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/business/national/8072596.htm
snip
The cost of steel rod has increased by more than 60 percent during the past six months.

The material, which cost 17.5 cents per pound in late 2003, now costs Erisco 23.5 cents, plus a recently imposed 5.1-cent surcharge.

"All of the commodities we buy have been changing like that," said Thomas Weber, Erisco's vice president of sales and marketing. "The surcharge is almost a weekly thing for us." Almost every form of steel -- from scrap, to plates to coil -- have seen similar increases in recent months, the result of a sharp increase in demand from China and the recent consolidation of the U.S. steel industry.

To date, those factors have done little more than drive up the cost and slow delivery times.

But the rising prices are now fueling fears of an unprecedented shortage -- as customers attempt to snatch up whatever supplies they can and China increases its appetite for U.S. steel.............

One possible solution would be for the U.S. to limit the export of scrap steel to China, McCain said.

Such a move would make sure U.S. companies get the supplies they need at a reasonable cost.

English, however, said there are some worries that export controls won't solve the problem.

The last time the U.S. attempted to limit the export of steel -- in 1973-74 -- the benefits were marginal, he said.

"The steel market has changed dramatically since then," English said. "It's going to take a detailed policy on the export of scrap that takes into effect all of the avenues of movement."

English said the government will also look at tapping into assets that could be used for scrap, such as the U.S. Navy's ghost fleet -- a fleet of retired vessels that could be recycled for use by U.S. companies.

While melting down decommissioned military ships may sound drastic, English said lawmakers need to investigate every option -- or risk derailing an already shaky economic recovery.

"This is as big a crisis for our manufacturing base as was facing the steel industry two years ago," he said. "The concern here is that this is an unexpected blow to the economy just as there was evidence of an upturn. Having a shortage at a time like this is about the worst-case scenario."

comment
The cost/price of steel depends on the cost of scrap steel, coke and ironmaking capacity. About 50% of US steel comes from mini mills which use steel scrap as their main feedstock. The other 50% comes from integrated mills that use iron ore and coke as their main ingredients. There have been no new integrated steel mills built in the US for 40 years. All the new capacity is mini mills. Mini mills depend on scrap as their main feedstock.

The price of scrap determines the marginal cost of steel from the mini mills and it has increased three fold in one year. The integrated mills that produce their own pig iron (blast furnace product) and convert that pig iron to steel (basic oxygen furnace product) cannot meet the demand so the marginal price of steel will be determined by scrap prices.

Integrated steel mills do not appear overnight. Five years might be a typical lead time with $billions invested. In the meantime the price of scrap will rule steel prices. Expect proposals for export controls on scrap.



Max Rabbitz (3/1/04; 16:51:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 117899)
(No Subject)
http://intelligencepress.com/
"What its executives are calling a "significant rally" of Eastern coal prices could fuel an upswing in the wholesale market for natural gas-fired electricity beginning next year, according to Calpine Corp. officials responding to questions from financial analysts Thursday."

Max.......Even dirty old coal is going up. Going to China? It's a long ways from Norfolk. Good thing energy prices aren't inflationary.



Belgian (3/1/04; 15:34:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 117898)
@ T.C. > Russia....
Russia is being guided by Germany (EU). Same (EMU-aligned) management of the "EXCHANGE Reserves". The Gold-Trail, Sir Randy,...the FreeGold one !!!
Watch the $-POO going !!! Remember the caveman's projections,...144$/barril. Russia almost as important as OPEC. Rember the Russia/Saudi, approchements.
At present, Russia tries to organise serious Tax-collection-system as to back the rubble (reschuffle from pooliticians to technocrats with EU assistance).

Oil and (plus) EMU versus emperor dollar. Oil and Gold are going to devalue the dollar.

Ask yourself WHY Dubai is setting up a brand new hyper-modern, Gold refinery...when the old refineries can easely handle the offer.
Belgium had to commit a lote of its Gold Exchange Reserves for being allowed into EMU. Today w're back (discretely) in the Congo ! *Gold*, the EXCHANGE RESERVE in a modern new monetary system.

By the year 2011, all "fiscal tourism" in EMU-25, will be history. Things "are" fundamentally changing, but slow and progressive, though. Same goes for Russia to become incorporated within EU. The $-POO is challenging the dollar's (virtual) strength. This constant rising dollar-inflow, has (systemic) repercussions on Russia because of its oil-(gas)reserves.

Watch the declining volumes on LBMA. Dollar doesn't say a word about the POO and is evidence to me that the dollar supports the POO-rise (oil-inflala), as long as it is priced in dollar !
Russia's hint about possible changes in their Gold exchange reserves is to create "more" gold-selling impression à la ECB/BIS. The dollar (and euro of course) know very well that the euro will profit from the coming rise in $+€, Goldprice ! Already a fait accompli and therefore not a reason to rush into the grand Gold-Revaluation, before the Russian partner is ready to run with it.

It *IS* happening, Randy. No need to speed it up or become impatient.

Unfortunately (or maybe lucky us), no gold-commentators do see the link between oil and Gold ! Nobody really bothers to analyse the fundamentals of the 25 year decline in IRs.
All these things aren't happening in a vacuum or ad random.

BTW : Gold exploration in Russia is dramatically increasing ! So will (is) the exploration for black liquid Gold/gas, be increased.

We don't really need to decode all those daily statements/rumors that are fired away at the www. The Big picture of what kind of "change" that has/is taking place, during the past 35 years is telling the "real" story,... about the world's "dollar". Whatever the printers of this green paper say.

Many simpleton EU politicians, don't understand WHY these ten Balkan states, need to come into EMU !? Watch how Tony is wrapped. The longer the UK waits to join, the less negociation-power will be left. Tic, toc, tac...

My personal view and FWIW !!!

R Powell (3/1/04; 15:14:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 117897)
Old superstition
There's an old traders' belief, superstition or much noted coincidence that silver and soybeans often trade higher/lower together. Some claim that the trading pits were close enough together once, so that, soybean exuberence sometimes flowed over into the silver pits. I don't know if there's any truth to any of this, certainly not now with grains trading in Chicago and metals in New York but, looking at recent bean and silver prices...well. I guess if a belief is verified enough, more and more will believe. Or, lacking verification we can just cancel the CPI number and repeat our mantra...
There is no inflation
There is no inflation
That's a fact, Jack....there is nooooo inflation...

R Powell (3/1/04; 15:03:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 117896)
Our daily mantra...Ooommmmmm
Once again, take a deep breath, close your eyes and repeat many times...

Up, into the close...
Buy with both hands...
There is no inflation..
There is no inflation..
there is no inflation

Last week's Consensus newspaper contained a long article, dated Feb 17, 2004, by Leonard Kaplan in which he wrote the following...

"The LBMA just published their recent forecasts from the most noted analysts in the industry. last year, overall,the analysts were entirely too pessimistic with only three out of twenty-eight analysts foreseeing gold achieving its 2003 average of $363.32."

And what does Leonard think?....

"To throw my hat into the ring, dangerous as that may be, I think 2004 is going to be a choppy year, with prices extraordinarily volatile with narrow ranges, but ending up pretty much the same as we are now.."

He goes on to give some numbers..highs and lows for year 2004....
Gold high of $435, low $375.
Silver high of $6.80, low $5.50.

Ah, yes, the old let's take a guess at yearly prices....and silver's high today was what?? Basically, I'm reminded of what Kennedy was reported as having said after the disasterous failure of "The Bay of Pigs" invasion of Cuba...
"That's what I get for listening to the 'experts'".
Myself? Glad you asked, but I don't know any more than the other "experts". But...I don't believe silver can close consistently above $7.00 without gold making new highs. Just a "non-expert" opinion, of course.
Rich


Federal_Reserves (3/1/04; 13:42:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 117895)
Missing expectations (TAX RETURN MONEY)
Economic data falling from peak levels, and many indicators like today's Construction Spending Number which FELL by .3 rather than Rising as expected are reversing. Over the weekend we discovered that the tax returns are coming in big either. Where is the consumer spending going to come from, even it missed expectations today, and is only being propped up by these tax returns and debt spending. With wage and salary growth so paltry, and with prices rising so quickly (CPI up .5%) the trap door is going to open sooner or later on consumer spending.

Income Tax Refunds Up, But Less Than Expected

By Jonathan Weisman
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, February 28, 2004; Page A04


Early tax refunds have climbed an average of $97 over last year's, the Internal Revenue Service said yesterday, a figure far lower than economists had estimated after last year's tax cut.



The early figure has economic as well as political implications. President Bush has counted on large refunds to remind voters of last year's tax cut, and economists figured that the extra cash would prime the economic pump once more.

The IRS reported that through Feb. 20, more than 40 million returns have been filed, a 2.6 percent increase over this time last year. Refunds have totaled $72.8 billion, up from $66.9 billion, while average refunds have climbed $97, to $2,292.

Last week, the Treasury predicted that because of last year's tax cut, average refunds would be $300 higher than they otherwise would have been. Between higher refunds and lower tax payments this filing season, taxpayers should have an added $50 billion, Bush predicted.

Treasury spokeswoman Tara Bradshaw stressed that the $300 estimate was not an attempt to predict average refund levels this year compared with last year. And she said most taxpayers have yet to file returns.

But independent economists have said the levels are markedly off predictions. L. Douglas Lee, who publishes the Economics From Washington newsletter, said last week that refunds in the first six weeks of tax season were up $6.5 billion, "substantially less" than most estimates, which expected increases of $20 billion to $30 billion.

Leonard E. Burman, a tax expert at the Urban Institute, said the refund figures may be depressed because tax returns from affluent filers have been delayed by complications from the tax cut on capital gains and dividends. Companies, mutual funds and stockbrokers have had difficulty calculating taxable capital gains and dividend payments because the rates on such investments dropped in the middle of last year.







Paper Avalanche (3/1/04; 13:42:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 117894)
Whoa! CRB nearing 280 in a hurry...
There's no inflation.

There's no inflation.

There's no inflation.

PA

steady (3/1/04; 11:47:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 117892)
like totally awsome dude
whew some stong waves and undercurrents, hope yall had as many good rides as i did today, once again break time, take this opportunity to regain your strength, the waves arent very consistent lately.

Ecoism alive and well.

still waiting for a antithesis to ecoism and i think ill be waiting 3 maybe 4 years before anyone seriously trys to anti ecoism!

Clink! (3/1/04; 10:49:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 117891)
Mortgages - now why didn't I think of that ?
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/heller/heller030104.html
Snip:-

Here's my solution to the housing crisis: the no-pay mortgage. As with most great ideas, it is very simple. They simply lend you all the money to buy the house, with no foolishness like down payments or the like, allow the interest to accumulate until you sell the house, and then collect their money. What could be simpler?

Let's look at all the advantages of this plan:

1. Very low administrative costs after the initial loan is made. No one has to keep track of payments, amounts owed, or the like.

2. The loan can never become "nonperforming." Since no payments are due, they cannot possibly be late. Therefore, the lending institution does not have to worry about the soundness of the loan.

3. Removal of all concerns about the price of housing. No matter how much the house costs, you can always afford it. Thus, house prices will never go down.

I'm sure the building industry would love this idea, as it guarantees an infinite demand for housing. It will stimulate the economy by providing jobs in construction, and insure that everyone has a house to live in. And since it guarantees that real estate will never go down, the loans entail no risk to the lending institutions.



Caradoc (3/1/04; 09:42:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 117890)
Gold predictions, possible "trigger," veneer wood
Sinclair says gold takes off sometime on or before the Ides of March. Mahendra (never shy) is more specific: gold takes off on Wednesday, the day after tomorrow.

For what it's worth (with silver at multiyear highs), Mahendra has emphasized silver over gold for growth over the last few weeks, having indicated ahead of time that beginning Jan 21st silver would no longer be in lockstep with gold. Not a bad call.... Even more impressive, he called the recent temporary reversal in the slide of the dollar and made specific and deadly accurate recommendations for shortterm trades that would have worked out very well.

Wednesday is okay with me, but I can wait til the 15th.

For those considering possible "triggers," note that the forces of evil have recently been showing Osama smiling at some guy in frogman gear:
http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/images/scuba.jpg
while suspicious frogmen are showing up in the Honolulu harbor and waterways of New York and Florida. The one found dead in the icy waters of the Hudson river (can you say "Indian Point Nuclear Reactor"?) wasn't even wearing the dry suit appropriate for the temperatures and so may have learned his diving skills ina warmer part of the world. Connect the dots. Details are available at
http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/#Divers

It doesn't matter whether the ethanol tanker that recently went down off the coast of North Carolina after leaving New York was just a coincidence. And the explosives used on the 899-passenger Phillipine ferry may have been put there without using frogmen. Even without these, there's an indication of a maritime threat that could be a trigger.

Veneer: planting three black walnut trees in one hole and braiding them as they grow for the first 20 feet will make a solid burl veneer log that one day may be more valuable than gold for your grandchildren. Just keep the side branches pruned off as the years go by.

Caradoc



Federal_Reserves (3/1/04; 09:14:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 117889)
The banking business is weird.
Here you have all these people come in and willingly hand over their money. As an inducement, you pay out interest to them. You immediately turnaround and at the same lend it out at a higher rate, and live on the margin. Even more weird the guy you lent the money to, goes out and spends it, then another guy comes in and deposits it back in your bank. You repeat this process over and over again manufacuring cash. At the same time you hope the folks don't who lent you money don't come back in and ask for their money back at the same time or the people you lent it to go under. Everything relys on confidence. Panic must be nipped in the bud.


The Invisible Hand (3/1/04; 08:16:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 117888)
Russia's reserves
http://www.faz.net/s/Rub72B1B2E621EE41E6873F3331C2905F59/Doc~EB9F482A52D9841B183C948CA70D7FFDF~ATpl~Ecommon~Scontent.html
I don't think this answers TownCrier's question to Belgian, but TownCrier's article says that the Russia's gold and foreign-exchange reserves stood at $86.7 billion as of Feb. 20, up $9.8 billion since the start of 2004.
Here's an article for February 13, 2003, that's just 12 months ago, which already spoke of A RECORD amount of $ 50 billion. The reserves seem to have increased by 80 %, in one year.

SNIP
Die Zentralbank sieht in den jüngsten Änderungen beim Wechselkurs keinen Anlaß, mehr Rubel als üblich zu verkaufen. Die Reserven an ausländischen Währungen und Gold in Rußland sind laut Zentralbank innerhalb der vergangenen sechs Wochen gestiegen und haben in der vergangenen Woche die Rekordmarke von 50,2 Milliarden Dollar erreicht. Diese Woche sind die Reserven um weitere 900 Millionen Dollar gewachsen. Dies bedeutet einen Zuwachs um 2,5 Milliarden Dollar seit Jahresbeginn.


I found also another article reporting on a press conference on February 5 of this year by Serguei Glaziev, former foreign economic relations minister, and presidential candidate, saying that he's in contact with Lyndon LaRouche concerning the establishment of a new international monetary system reducing Russia's dependence vis-a-vis the dollar. The article concludes by saying that China will not take the initiative to set up such a system but that Russia has to and should it. Glaziev would have talked about this with Romano Prodi, chief bureaucrat of the EU, and the Europeans would support such an initiative. The Chinese want it, the Indians want it. Taking such initiative would be the most important thing for Russia to do.

It was bedtime for me several hours ago. I'll send you my e-mail and if you want I'll translate the rest of both articles when I'll wake up. Goodnight.

http://solidariteetprogres.online.fr/News/Slugs/breve_916.html
Le 5 février, Serguei Glaziev, candidat à l'élection présidentielle en Russie, a donné une conférence de presse au siège de RIA Novosti à Moscou. A cette occasion, l'ancien ministre des Relations économiques extérieures (1992-1993) a fait d'importantes propositions politiques concernant le rôle de la Russie dans la crise financière internationale.
RIA Novotsi résuma ainsi les remarques de Glaziev, qui est en contact avec Lyndon LaRouche depuis plusieurs années : « La Russie peut et doit remettre en cause la nouvelle architecture de la structure financière globale, et notamment faire du rouble une monnaie financière et de réserve internationale. Le dollar a englouti toute l'économie mondiale et éliminé l'économie européenne. (…) La Russie devrait mettre fin à sa dépendance excessive envers la devise financière globale - le dollar. (…) Cette mesure devrait accro"tre notre influence sur les marchés internationaux .»
+
Pour diverses raisons, selon Glaziev, la Chine ne prendra pas l'initiative de créer ce système. Mais « la Russie doit et devrait le faire », car le système financier international ne devrait pas dépendre d'une seule monnaie nationale. Glaziev a déclaré qu'il avait discuté de cette approche avec le président de la Commission de l'UE, Romano Prodi, quand celui-ci était à Moscou; les Européens soutiendraient une telle initiative, les Chinois la veulent, les Indiens la veulent, dit-il. Prendre une telle initiative serait « la chose la plus importante que la Russie puisse faire dans la politique mondiale », concernant les questions économiques et financières.’’’

Zhisheng (3/1/04; 07:42:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 117887)
Gold this morning.
In past weeks gold, in its rise and fall, has pretty much followed the euro. This morning gold is up about $5 and the euro is close to unchanged.

Perhaps it is influenced by silver, which is up about 21.5 cents. Recently the price of silver has somewhat had a life of its own.

MK (3/1/04; 07:26:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 117886)
News & Views
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.html
Updated

Link included.

MK (3/1/04; 07:25:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 117885)
News & Views
Updated.



USAGOLD Daily Market Report (3/1/04; 07:24:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 117884)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (3/1/04; 07:07:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 117883)
Your friend in the business, helping you enter the gold market with grace and confidence.
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html





Boilermaker (3/1/04; 06:56:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 117882)
Personal Income/Consumption Stats for January
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040301/table_u_s_jan_personal_income_rose_0_2_pct_1.html
The numbers for income came in lower than expected, +0.2% vs +0.5 predicted. Spending hit the target, +0.4%. We work 30 long days and what do we get? Another month older and deeper in debt. St. Peter don't you call us cause we can't go we owe our souls to the government store.


Henri (3/1/04; 06:40:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 117881)
Did silver just go ballistic?
Good boy spike! kitco chart offscale...probably just another blunder...or is it?

Dollar Bill (3/1/04; 06:40:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 117880)
.,.
Might as well move it here TC
TownCrier (2/24/04; 13:57:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 117635)
Who owns what, affecting what, and how.
http://finance.lycos.com/qc/news/story.aspx?story=200402241843_RTR_N24451564&symbols=QCNEWS:0
HEADLINE: Central bank buying at US Treasury sales overrated

NEW YORK, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Some bond investors have been overestimating foreign central bank participation in U.S. Treasury auctions, although there is no doubt that they are major purchasers of government debt overall.

Figures on auction allocation for much of last year from the U.S. Office of Debt Management show foreigners, including central banks, took less of U.S. offerings than first thought, particularly for longer-dated debt.

Since May last year the Treasury has released a breakdown of auction results which shows both the share taken by primary dealers bidding for their own house accounts and the share taken by dealers bidding on behalf of their customers, which can be everything from bond funds to wealthy individuals.

The latter group are called indirect bidders and include foreign central banks, which tend to bid through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

...indirect bidders took 24 percent of a $13 billion sale of 10-year notes in September but according to the ODM only 6 percent went to foreign buyers.

The discrepancy is not so great for short-term debt, the maturity historically favored by risk-averse central banks.

At September's sale of $25 billion of new two-year notes indirect bidders took 37 percent of the offering, while the ODM data show that 28 percent went to foreign accounts, which would include the offshore central banks.

---------(from url)------
It is good to understand how foreign (esp. typified by central banks) preference for the "principal safety" of the shorter dated notes tends to mute or lessen the effective ability of the market mechanisms you might otherwise have expected to come into play in the event of loss of foreign confidence in the dollar.

Were there in fact a more normal distribution of holdings along the bond-term spectrum, any general selloff of bonds would tend to raise the effective yield interest rates which would in turn be normally expected to help curb the severity of the selloff as new buyers are potentially drawn in by the higher yields.

However, with a preponderance of short-dated holdings, a liquidation could occur by foreign holders without generating the normally expected signals to the marketplace, especially when you further consider that through FOMC policy directives and the implementation through open market ops, the Federal Reserve has undisputed power to dictate the short end of the interest rate spectrum.

And beyond that, we mustn't make light of the Fed's ability to intervene in the long end of the spectrum, too.

In other words, running counter to the common perception, in this case where there's fire, it is entirely possible that you might not see any smoke at all!

In such an environment, the "theoretically pure" balancing mechanism you would normally expect from the free rein of market forces is most definitely revealed as a faulty premise that could be dangerous to assumptions of your portfolio's overnight health. This may help you understand that the usually comforting view of a clear sky untroubled by any sign of rising interest rates may in this case not be your most reliable indicator whether there is a fire raging below.

So rather than look at interest rates as the primary indicator to help you figure out how healthy the dollar might be, it is better to see the exchange rate trend for what it is telling you directly. And ultimately, all the statistics in the world are no substitute for simply exercising your own good judgement.

Only one thing is certain. A portfolio diversified with gold is, by that same fraction, as good as gold. Call USAGOLD~Centennial today and tell them Randy sent you.

R.

TownCrier (3/1/04; 06:09:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 117879)
"Strong" dollar (wink, wink)
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/106190/content.asp?banner=fxcm10&dia=132004
HEADLINE: Not Your Older Brother's Strong Dollar Policy

March 1, 2004, Interim Report by Forex Capital Markets LLC

...Under President Clinton's Treasury Secretary Rubin, the strong dollar policy meant exactly that: support for a relatively high value and steadily appreciating US currency. ... By 1999 a booming stock market had created nearly $5 trillion in wealth in only two years, sending personal consumption, the main engine of American growth, into overdrive. A strong dollar helped satisfy this surging demand by lowering relative costs of imports and increasing the overall quantity of goods and services supplied.

A casualty of much of this excess was the relatively tiny export sector, which suffered under the weight of the appreciating greenback and sluggish foreign demand. Between 1996 and 1999 the trade deficit increased three-fold from $89 billion to an alltime high of $254 billion.

As the bubble burst and the economy stumbled, the strong dollar policy as originally envisioned began to make ever less sense. ... With growth plummeting and unemployment rising, the Federal Reserve's focus turned to reflating the economy -- lowering interest rates and flooding the system with dollars in order to stimulate economic activity.

Not wanting to green light a potentially destabilizing dollar rout, the Bush Treasury Department has retained the "strong dollar policy" in little else but name only. Hence representatives from the Secretary on down maintain their official support for a strong dollar even as the Administration gives its implicit approval for the currency to drop. And drop it has.

...On the heels of the largest monetary and fiscal stimulus measures in recent memory, rising inflation is bound to follow, later if not sooner. As inflation eats into the value of US debt, foreign bondholders, notably Asian central banks, may become less willing to finance insatiable American consumption and seek to diversify into other holdings, causing yields to spike and the bond market to tank.

------(from url)-----

As popular or intuitive as that scenario might seem, before you buy completely into the notion of foreign sales spiking interest rates, be sure to consider the alternate view I presented last week in the following post:

TownCrier (2/24/04; 13:57:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 117635)
SUBJECT -- Who owns what, affecting what, and how.

In it a case is made that currency exchange rates may trump bond/interest rates as the more reliable compass in pointing the way.

R.

knotakare (3/1/04; 06:06:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 117878)
@physicalman
yes, I was hoping you would see my message last night. Because I wrote it in respose, to what you has discussed about the timberlands in Alabama. A very similar situation; no doubt about that. I think American Can owned timberlands in the Southeast, as I know a former boss I had at Kimberly-Clark had worked for them in Georgia.

These timberlands, should be a source of sustainable business, providing ongoing employment. At the timberlands here in Michigan, foriegn buyers from Japan and Scandanavia come to this area in late winter to buy birdseye logs. These logs are highly sought after, and are used in everything from high-end furniture to wood dash boards on luxury auto's.

Why did someone in the U.S. not invest in building a modern veneer mill for birdseye here in the upper midwest? Why ship these logs all the way to finland or Japan?

there seems to be a bigger picture, behind the scenes, that does not make sence.

By the way, I saw a long article on the net, that says that globalism is imploding. that it is unworkable. It gave me some hope, that people will wake up, and realize they must take care of themselves, create their own business', and not rely on these global corporations. It is not an easy thing to do; but if one is aware, they can educate their children of this neccessity.

That article gave me hope, that all is not lost.

Thanks physicalman for your response.

kak





steady (3/1/04; 05:40:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 117877)
strong currents.
what, you guys still padeling waiting for over 4 to develope? should have saved your time and gave it a break,

one for one, and all for none. (fiat)
one for all and all for one. (GOLD)

not in a communistic or socoalistic but on an individualistic basis, fairness for everyone gold
subjects kings, queens ,dictator, and bum on the street, equality, fairness, justice, is all it seeks on its arbitration, judging and execution excursion to planet earth, you prepared?
ANT or grasshopper the lifestyle is of your choosing, if nothing done u will be taking a govt sponsord bruising.
dont get caught snoozing will the dollar value is losing. enuff of this musing to many books need purusing!

whose the spotter today? <;=)


TownCrier (3/1/04; 05:29:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 117876)
Onlooking gold says to platinum, "There's nothing you can do I can't do better." All in good time.
http://www.borsaitalia.it/fwa-cgi-bin/news.pl?id=1078139394nN2W236638&tit=UPDATE%201-Platinum%20hits%20fresh%2024-yr%20peak,%20Europe%20gold%20firm&type=internazionali&ling=EN
HEADLINE: Platinum hits fresh 24-yr peak, Europe gold firm

LONDON, March 1 (Reuters) - Platinum reached up to levels not seen since March 198O on Monday morning in Europe, led by aggressive Asian investor buying amid bullish fundamentals for the metal, while gold took heart from platinum's rise and a firmer euro.

Spot platinum ... fixed at $894.00 in London, a fresh 24-year high fixing.

Dealers said that platinum, used mainly in jewellery and auto catalysts, was set to cross $900 in coming sessions, but the metal is still some way from the March 1980 high of $1,047.50.

...Gold has moved broadly in tandem with the dollar's movements against other currencies, especially the euro. The metal rose to a 15-year peak of $430.50 an ounce on January 6 when the euro touched a new high against the dollar.

-----(from url)------

Were gold to currently reach a 24-year high like platinum, we would be talking about prices today in the upper $800's. Yet where platinum price is driven primarily by limitations of fabrication demand, gold shows the unique characteristic of being driven inversely proportional to quality and confidence in national currencies. As there is no practical limit to people's desire to accumulate ever more weath and savings, and as there is no practical limit to a political system's ability to depreciate a national currency, there is no practical limit to the price you might see gold reasonably attain.

R.

TownCrier (3/1/04; 05:04:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 117875)
HEADLINE: India's gold appetite firm despite price rise
http://www.reuters.com/locales/newsArticle.jsp?type=businessNews&locale=en_IN&storyID=4466667
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Demand for gold in India, the world's largest consumer, rose nearly four percent in 2003 despite a 20 percent jump in prices that cut consumption in some Asian countries, an industry official said on Monday.

India bought 568.7 tonnes of gold for jewellery and investment last year, against 547.3 tonnes in 2002 ...... Bullion dealers expected India's consumption to reach 600 tonnes this year.

...Gold consumption in mainland China rose slightly to 207.6 tonnes last year from 203.9 tonnes in 2002. Japan's consumption fell to 94.7 tonnes last year from 141.6 tonnes in 2002.

"Japan's consumption is down but there's nothing unusual. In 2002, consumption was very high because of Japan's withdrawal of a government guarantee on time deposits," said Koh.

Dealers said Japan's buying this year would be fuelled by the planned end of a full state guarantee on bank deposits in April 2005.

Gold buying jumped in the January-March quarter of 2002, just before the government ended state guarantees on term deposits in April of that year.

-----(from url)-----

Take a note from Japan and the transition in savings. With paper holdings it is appropriate to eliminate any implicit or explicit guarantees whenever they are, in fact, mere pretense. Such is the key difference between promises in route and property in hand.

R.

mas (3/1/04; 03:54:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 117874)
TownCrier your 117870. From a month ago, Privateer.
The Rouble (And Everything Else) Comes Out Of The Rubble:
It was reported in the first week of February that Russia's foreign currency and gold reserves rose $US
3.6 Billion to a record, the biggest weekly increase since July 1998. The Russian Central Bank has been
buying US Dollars to slow the appreciation of the Rouble, according to traders and economists in
Moscow. Russia's reserves climbed to a record $US 82.7 Billion in the week to January 23, according to
the Russian Central Bank. This is happening right around the world. In South America, even Brazil and
Argentina are printing their own national currencies, some madly, others at more moderate speeds, all to
soak up arriving US Dollars! It is awe inspiring to watch this take place right around the entire globe.
What were once two-bit national currencies and outright confetti currencies, like most of the ones in
Africa, are hammering upwards as the US Dollar falls.

Dollar Bill (3/1/04; 03:04:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 117873)
.,.
The idle future. Mega Global Corporations hire us part time, the govt provides the limited health care, the govt subsidizes some of the global corp food products, so the increasing number of govt dole users (welfare) can eat foods that will certainly not lengthen thier lives(!)
the govt and mega financial corps end up buying all the assets regular folks cant maintain, like in britain in the sixties where the govt owned a huge amount of property and rented to the citizens. Really, the future is more like command soviet style than we would ever guess. Where else does it lead? I cannot find another outcome.
Hey Aristotle, once the inflation route is taken, well, let me try it this way, you say fiat leads to hyperinflation.
Is there another saying about fiat that reads something like.......fiat leads to tyranny? Certainly the early signs indicate that.

Goldilox (3/1/04; 02:55:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 117872)
Russian reserves
@ Townie,

I suspect the Russian statement is puposely vague, in that the world is learning Greenspeak, which is nothing more than applying the priciples of "diplomacy" to finance.

A non-statement of intent offers them GS' often mentioned "flexibility".

Goldilox (3/1/04; 02:49:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 117871)
Global Tyranny
@ $ Bill:

You said: "I have convinced myself, that god is going to stop this. Since no man can escape personal flaws and troubles no matter what he tries and even by random chance, to me that proves limits that only a god could provide. DNA cant do that. Since we cannot even get a family to live heaven on earth, since we just cannot even do that, I dont think we will be allowed to strive our way into global tyranny and destructive greed based economic behaviours that clamp down on a global scale."

$ Bill, with all due respect, my concern is that believing "Something or Someone else" is going to stop this madness, amounts to an abdication of our personal responsibilities in the matter. Simply put, it that same abdication which enables its progress. Global fatalism can be globally fatal.

Much of the energy research and related areas such as mind and weather control, high freq, gravity, ESP, etc., have been placed under the lock and key called "national security" since pre-WWII. They're quite ripe for TPTB to pull out the inventory and convince all the miracle believers that divine intervention is occurring, once more using that fatalism to power their conquest.

Are we hastening our destruction by refusing to acknowledge the potential for extinction and instead expecting a miraculous external cure? Where's the accountability in that?


TownCrier (3/1/04; 02:32:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 117870)
Calling Belgian... to lend a hand?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/040229/russia_rouble_1.html
HEADLINE: Russia ready to use reserves to calm rouble

LONDON, March 1 (Reuters) - Russia is prepared to use its foreign-exchange reserves to cushion any upward pressure on the rouble, as it closely watches the U.S. dollar's fall against the euro...

Oleg Vyugin, the Russian central bank's first deputy chairman, told the paper in an interview that the bank was prepared to act to prevent the currency market from "overheating."

"If there is a big flood of portfolio investment into the Russian market, the central bank is ready to use its reserves to sterilise this," Vyugin was quoted as saying.

Russia's gold and foreign-exchange reserves stood at $86.7 billion as of Feb. 20, up $9.8 billion since the start of 2004, thanks largely to high oil and commodities prices, heavy corporate borrowing abroad and more Russians shifting their savings into roubles away from a weak dollar.

That has propelled the rouble to almost three-year highs against the dollar and forced the central bank to contain the rise to help local producers compete with foreign goods.

"If we just followed the dollar rate, we could end up with a jump in inflation," Vyugin added. "At the moment, the dollar/euro exchange rate suits us. But if we move substantially, we may review our forex policy."

-------(more at url)-----

I am posting this with the hope that you might be willing to lend a hand at translating this. Maybe this is merely poor or vague reporting, but I am having difficulty deciphering the implied financial action here.

To me, the primary implication of this phrase -- of a central bank "using its reserves" -- is that of selling off its (forex) reserves.

The problem with that interpretation, however, is that in this case I cannot see how that particular action would provide the relief to the rouble that the central bank seems to desire. In its effort against a stronger rouble, it would seem to me that any such "use" (liquidation) of the bank's foreign reserves would come in the form of a net exchange for domestic assets, which would in turn (at least in my mind) tend to further strengthen the rouble on the basis of supply and demand of the currencies involved. Or is there a more meaningful yet less-direct effect in play in which the domestic currency is weakened by a shift to a lower proportion of foreign reserves as a component of overall reserve assets?

Or, is it merely that the phrase, "Russia is prepared to use its foreign-exchange reserves to cushion any upward pressure on the rouble", is being crudely used to imply that Russia will as necessary ADD further to its forex reserves, in essence, "using" that as the mechanism to absorb the influx of foreign capital while meeting it with an emission of new roubles to ease the pressure upon the exchange rate?

Thanks to anyone who would care to clarify the policy mechanism being implied here.

R.

Dollar Bill (3/1/04; 02:18:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 117869)
.,.
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html#anchor0
It looks like kindness dont it? And, the global fiat excess, dollar, American centric, global economy has done some real good. You cant help a lot of people with a strict gold based system. However, the road while temporarily easing some burdens and improving things for many, leads down a road that we just should not walk. A road that we must detour from, and the big boys will not change thier road. The illusion of unity and UN style "shareing" seems allureing enough and set enough to be unalterable destiny.

Sure, those that want to hug and heal the world all have seemingly good motives, but that one world fiat-based future is a disaster. Greenspan wants to live long enough to pull this off in person, he is driving it. Even Roach of morgan stanley doesnt get it. We arent trying to save our economy, that is not number one. Number one is the global economy.
How it will derail? alkida? bird flu? A depression wont do it, they will just tighten thier grip during a depression.
Only the global corps will survive a retail market wipeout.
Only agribusiness will weather a depression farm product price plunge. America, having vast food resources can dictate to countries that need the food. Or, lets say "entice" those countries to join the global "shareing" for the good of all. This road goes nowhere else.
Whatever it takes, this road must change.

Dollar Bill (3/1/04; 01:52:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 117868)
.,.
Bereneke gave a speech on the euro. We have it here. SEEMS like he is giving it a high five. But really he is dismissing it as a total lightweight. It is missing too many ingredients he says. It looks like applause for the euro, but it is criticism. However, where it is not criticism but where he trying to entice others to walk the same road, it his support of countries joining together under one currency. I think that is a long term aim of the greenspan fed. To have the world operating as not many currencies, but less and less till we reach just ONE. (fiat)

Greenspan is taking more and more flack for his words and deeds. Even Roach of Morgan Stanley wrote an open letter telling him to raise the interest rates. I can only read greenspan with this in mind......He says one thing and means another, He is trying to make it look like things are like they always were and he is still playing by the same old rules, while really he is restructureing the actual framework of economics towards the only Fiat structure that can support a global one world economy. A structure that
moves us away from local economy and lassae fair economics, to global corporate economy and a govt command economy.
They cannot run a global economy for the long haul without having total control. And that is the truth. (I think!)

Examples of what the global corporate economy will bring us?........ walmart forces manufacturers to go to china and have thier slave labor work in the dark to make things as cheap as humans can do it. An example of which was posted here recently.
Agribusiness is buying up any and all companies that make products using healthy more traditional farming methods that cost more, and changing thier processes and getting the ingredients for those products from 1) overseas where no pesticide or poison concerns exist for either the workers or the ones that eat the products. 2) As they control the media more and more, they just dont tell you things like this huge one; trans fats are great for the global corp guys because the products dont decay, however, your body actually thinks trans fats are fats and puts them in your cell walls but trans fats do not do all the functions that a real fat does. AND, there is no way to gauge HOW MANY of you fat cells are now the malfunctioning trans fats. Got freinds dying young?
Think the global corp boys are like the mom and pop run business that would care?
That is the world we are going to, that is the type of master we are giving our freedoms and our lives to.

To me the gold issue is the biggest issue in the world. Either it is a one world tyranny in many ways, as exampled above, or it is a local economy where balance, while never attained, with all the suffering that comes with it, but gold provides the pole that gives a backbone to limit fiat excess.
I have convinced myself, that god is going to stop this. Since no man can escape personal flaws and troubles no matter what he tries and even by random chance, to me that proves limits that only a god could provide. DNA cant do that. Since we cannot even get a family to live heaven on earth, since we just cannot even do that, I dont think we will be allowed to strive our way into global tyranny and destructive greed based economic behaviours that clamp down on a global scale. OK, we are already doing some of that, but I say the clock is ticking, and big brother will not prevail.








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