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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 6/1/2003 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) goldquest (6/1/03; 22:43:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 103929) Bernanke http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2003/20030531/default.htm did such a great job of finding a solution to fix the US economy, that he is now telling the Japanese how to fix theirs! Waverider (6/1/03; 22:29:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 103928) ECB May Reduce Rate to 2 Percent on Thursday, Economists Say http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=aBJ_r5f7hfrg&refer=europe Snip:"The European Central Bank may reduce its benchmark interest rate for the third time in seven months this week as the economy stagnates and the euro's advance slows inflation, economists said. The ECB may cut its rate by half a percentage point to 2 percent when policy makers meet in Frankfurt on Thursday, according to a majority of the 32 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Bank of England may keep its rate at 3.75 percent, a separate survey of 38 economists showed."Waverider: Sir MK - it looks like a half percentage point drop is anticipated. mikal (6/1/03; 21:38:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 103927) Corrected Haiku Paper printing storm,Dollars flutter down, up, down.Who would've caught them? mikal (6/1/03; 21:27:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 103926) "Gold Haiku" Thanks to Town Crier (Randy) for suggesting posts of Haiku(the Japanese 5-7-5 syllable "snapshot" of gold). Though it's true that the dollar is only one of a great many influences on POG, it's changing perception and transient forms, this little poem tells how the U.S. dollar index is pointing down for at least a year like a dragon's tail, unless an unexpected push accelerates it's realignment and correction.Paper printing storm,Dollars flutter down, up, down.Who will catch them? MK (6/1/03; 21:13:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 103925) Randy.... If you're around can you clarify something for me? I'm trying to conceptualize what it would take on the part of ECB to turn the tide of capital going into the euro in terms of lowering its interest rates -- assuming of course that the ECB finds it in Europe's best interest at the moment to attempt stemming the tide, something I'm not totally sure of. But looking for a starting point....At the ECB site, they list the following interest rates:Deposit facility.......1.5%Refi operations......2.5%Lending facility......3.5%Which of these most closely approximates the Fed Funds rate (now 1.25% approx.)? silvercollector (06/01/03; 20:38:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 103924) Does this statement make sense.... (Excellent article by Taylor) http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/taylor060203.html "For the first time in the Post war era, collapsing interest rates didn't help stocks. That meant that bond prices rose while stocks fell…..More than anything else, the decoupling of bonds and stocks was the main signal that deflation had become a serious threat. The last time a major decoupling of bonds and stocks had occurred was during the deflationary 1930s." misetich (06/01/03; 20:24:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 103923) President spells out fears over dollar's slide http://politics.guardian.co.uk/economics/story/0,11268,968621,00.html Snip:President George Bush sought yesterday to halt the dollar's rapid decline on the foreign exchanges as the annual gathering of eight of the world's leading industrial nations prepared to discuss the fragile state of the global economy. After two weeks in which the US currency has been shunned by investors convinced that the US was happy to see the dollar fall, Mr Bush said the recent weakening ran counter to his administration's strong dollar policy. "Our policy is aimed at a strengthening of the dollar. It's true that the value of the dollar is falling, which is against our policy," Mr Bush said in an interview with Russia's Rossiya TV channel. Mr Bush, backed by Tony Blair, has insisted that this morning's session of the G8 summit in Evian should focus on the risk that slow growth in the west could trigger a period of deflation. .................. and Mr Chirac thought a full-scale discussion on the fall in the dollar and the rise in the euro might unsettle the markets. .............The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates by half a percentage point to 2% on Thursday, a move which may take some of the pressure off the dollar. .............**********MisetichCurrencies crisis - How can one protect their portfolio with all this uncertainty?GOLD - PHYSICAL GOLD -All On Board The Gold Bull Express Old Yeller (06/01/03; 20:05:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 103922) The New Asian Dollar http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gang8/message/8484 Interesting developments afoot.This would give AsianCB's another choice in currency reserves. silvercollector (06/01/03; 19:53:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 103921) "What's happening in Iraq" (UN's perspective) http://www.un.org/apps/news/infocusRel.asp?infocusID=50&Body=Iraq&Body1=inspect Related news stories Security Council seeks to bring peace and development to Africa - 30 MayIraq: UN to host reconstruction meeting at New York Headquarters in June - 30 MayUpcoming G-8 summit should tackle, not debate, anti-poverty goals – UN official - 29 MayIraq: UN food programme gears up for restarting distribution system - 29 MayIslamic Conference has key role in ensuring peace, fighting terrorism - Annan - 28 May Bulldog (06/01/03; 19:52:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 103920) Price of oil Now that U.S. & Britain control the second largest oil reserves by occupying Iraq, once the infrastructure is developed, they should produce at least ten times the amount of oil produced under Saddam. If so, would Iraq still be part of OPEC or would GWB use Iraq to break the cartel? Why can't oil then go to $10/bbl? I suspect a partial answer is that all sides have an interest in keeping oil above $20/bbl. If oil does decrease in price, do we expect gold to follow it down? silvercollector (06/01/03; 19:51:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 103919) Whoops, link attached for UN Resolution 1483 http://ods-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N03/368/53/PDF/N0336853.pdf?OpenElement silvercollector (06/01/03; 19:48:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 103918) UN Resolution 1483 Paragraph 11 pertains to WMDParagraph 16 pertains to "oil-for-food"Paragraph 20 (ref.12) pertains to sale of oil & gas.Paragraph 22 pertains to liabilities (contracts?) to oil & gas silvercollector (06/01/03; 19:08:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 103917) The rubber meets the road... "Berlusconi also referred to the possibility of a cut in interest rates, comments reflecting mounting belief that the European Central Bank could or should cut rates soon, a move that could tame the euro's surge versus the dollar. "A decision to cut rates might be in the air," he said."The dollar is up tonight, gold down considerably. Looks like the ECB is going to cave. I haven't checked the details from the Iraqi oil caving but it seems to me the planet it 'cow-towing' to Bush and the dollar machine.Don't like it but unfortunately it might still be necessary to live with it.Global deflation for a while trying to get global reflation re-inacted. misetich (06/01/03; 17:52:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 103916) States Use Gimmicks To Tackle Deficits http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A63383-2003May31.html?nav=hptop_tb Snip:What's a governor to do when he raises corporate taxes by $1 billion, proposes $3 billion in spending cuts, taps his state's entire tobacco settlement and drains every state fund with a positive balance -- and still comes up $300 million short of a constitutionally required balanced budget?The way New Jersey Gov. James E. McGreevey (D) got over -- or, actually, around -- this very hurdle sums up the precarious condition of budgets now being crafted in almost every state capital. ............in Year Three of the worst fiscal crisis in a half-century, states are postponing -- and possibly exacerbating -- the day of reckoning through creative accounting.............Using financial sleight of hand, McGreevey shifted a June payment to school districts into the next fiscal year, which begins July 1, creating a paper windfall of almost $300 million in 2003. Presto! -- a balanced budget. But also a teetering one..............The proliferation of accounting gimmicks in almost every state budget has raised concerns in finance, health care, education, mental health, public safety and anti-poverty efforts -- every endeavor that relies on state government.........."I compare it to Enron, because Enron's accounting, by and large, didn't violate generally accepted accounting principles. It was just extremely aggressive," he said. "That's what the states are doing. They're pushing the envelope. These gimmicks are basically off-the-balance-sheet debt. It's what Enron had."***********MisetichCreative accounting - threading water - for how long can the shell game go on - It may work during prosperous economic times - but is a recipe for disaster during tough economic times - and unless the infamous US economic recovery shows up soon - this has the making of a real ugly messAll On Board The Gold Bull Express USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (06/01/03; 17:49:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 103915) A golden education in 175 pages for $5.95 http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html
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