All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
melda laure (3/1/03; 23:54:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 98705)
Supply, Demand, Catastrophe theory
An interesting book: Catastrophe Theory and its applications, by Tim Poston and Ian Stewart. It's probably more than you'd want to read, but the first two chapters and some of the examples in the back are good, and there really isn't that much "math" involved.
What is discussed is some of the stability problems. Most simple discussions of supply and demand presume (for arguments sake) that supply and demand follow simple monotonic curves (preferrably straight lines). Reality is that supply and demand are more like a bucking bronco: a lot of up and down but occasionally he trips and keels over. Interestingly they discuss ship building. With this as background you can attempt to put the FOA predictions to various gedanken experimenten: what underlies the current demand picture? What lies beyond the present region of stability? Present prices have been (for several decades) a mirage: a finely leveled balance beam upheld by big burly arms of big players (mostly governments). They wont let you touch that balance beam. The best you can do is to grab a few grains of that yellow stuff as they load and unload the tray (with virtual gold). And while they may be able to hold that golden balance beam steady for the present, the big guys have to do this while they balance on their tip toes on a highwire (and lately it seems it's been an oily high wire at that) Meanwhile some guy named Chavez the Magnificent is trying to scratch himself betweent the shoulderblades and some guy named Ken Lay has sold twice as many tickets to the circus, as there are seats, doubled up on fire insurance and taken out a 2nd mortgage on the circus company.
Really is this a show you want to attend? Scalp your ticket, take your winnings home and stuff them in a sock.
Chris Powell (3/1/03; 23:41:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 98704)
Barrick may NEVER have to repay its borrowed gold
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1449
New York Times examines Barrick's lagging share
price and the Blanchard lawsuit against Barrick
and Morgan Chase, and finds out that Barrick may
NEVER have to repay ANY borrowed gold.
To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:
gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
melda laure (3/1/03; 23:19:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 98703)
Golden thrones in Hong Kong
The last time I saw one of those was in cuzco, the year slips my mind, must've been around the time of the norman conquest, give or take 52 years. I think I must've remarked to the royal chamberlain "really I think you're taking this 'excrement of the gods' a bit too literally." He said something like "You elves think you know everything, next you'll tell me that earth is at the center of the universe." I hear there was talk of installing something similar in the USSR. At least some of the inca got to actually see their gold. That's more than can be said of the present citizens of the USA.
Only 7.6 megabucks for my own golden throne? Hope the "seat" is water heated. May be a bit of an effort to lift the lid. I'd better stop.
1340cc (3/1/03; 22:45:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 98702)
Saleing for silver 21 mabery
I just saw in another chat room where someone attends auctions, estate sales and flea markets and buys silver. He mentioned the "melt value" of silver. I don't know what it is right now ,it's been 23-24 years since I worked in the bussiness and it was a lot higher than it is now, but any jeweler should be able to tell you. When I worked in Denver at a jewelery store we bought a couple of sterling knives at about $100 for each piece. Good luck.
1340cc (3/1/03; 21:32:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 98701)
21mabry
I have been "saleing" and doing estate sales for years. No, sterling isn't sold by weight at sales. About the only thing you have to look for is to make sure it is stamped "sterling". There are books on antique silver you can buy at some flea markets and some book stores. Your best bets are in modest neighborhoods. The more modest the less pricey it will be. Go to several antique stores and price different items and then hit the sales. Your better buys are often at sales that are off the beaten path. Professional estate sales are hard because pros are there early and are sharks. If you see a hand made sign that is not in the paper try them first. You will see the same people at sales and you will learn what they are there to buy. I have had people that knew what I was after point out things I might be interested in that I had overlooked.
Good luck. And buy the way it is habit forming!!!
21mabry (3/1/03; 20:13:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 98700)
sterling silver
Could someone in the forum,I am thinking this is right up physicalmans alley.I want to start buying sterling silver at estate and garage sales I have heard there are great buys out there.How much does one look to pay?Is it sold by the gram?How can one protect oneself against fraud?Any info would be helpfull.thnx all 21
Liberty Head (3/1/03; 19:26:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98699)
Two Sides, One Coin
I understand what "supply and demand" is and how "it" works in a force-free environment. I say "it" because, supply and demand, is but two sides of the same coin.
You can't affect supply without affecting demand. Our environment, however, is not force-free.
Keep’em Guessing
It's the force/minipulation part that is so difficult to fully comprehend and keeps us guessing. Force can be applied covertly or overtly. It can be directed at the supply side or the demand side. As we see, these numerous forces can be very large, acute or chronic, emotional or rational, and conflicting in nature. The value of discernment and trust in oneself becomes paramount in the guessing game. Actions can speak where words fail, so one must pay attention.
While we definitely have some work to do, ultimately, regarding gold, we have but three choices, go long, go short, or go home. Long and short, buying and selling, like supply and demand, are again two sides of the same coin. Along with our choice of sides, comes a corresponding opposition.
Like a game of poker, keep the opposition guessing as they do to you. That's why I like gold bullion coins. No one knows whether you are going long or short. No one knows how much you have or where you keep it, what you are doing with it or how well it is protected. Unlike the dollar, gold flies below radar. Our big and powerful opposition sets the radar detection limits, so like jujitsu; use it to your advantage.
Besides, each bullion coin has two sides and you own both.
Note
The opposition, as I see it, is big government control and all those advocating force/resistance paradigms over responsible behavior. I do not equate being anti-big government with being anti-American or pro-anarchy. Quite the opposite.
No debates on this, please.
Cheers
Cometose (3/1/03; 18:50:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 98698)
Mark Robinson / Marc Faber articles
Seems as though based on the latest intel coming out re: Al Queda trancript of Feb 24 that we've switched from Orange alert prematurely....this according to Mark Robinson article (Says that March 14 is pretty large day in Muslim History / also interestingly enough ---close to the Roman Ides of March ) from a forum across the hall....Jim Pupulva et al
and there also ....encouraging words on gold from Marc Faber, who challenges recent claims by Robert Prechter ....
says that hedge funds bought the gold on the way up and as they like to trade sold it down.....THEY'LL BE BACK>>>>>>>
Zhisheng (3/1/03; 18:48:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 98697)
Rookie's Observations
Rookie, though your post has been pulled, I have been thinking about your observations, and pondering why the posters at this site AS A WHOLE should appear as they have to you. Here is what I think.
People here are interested in gold: on the one hand as a means to protect or increase their wealth, and on the other hand in the influence of gold upon politics, the economy, the monetary system, and society. Some of course have more of the former subjective interest, and some more of the latter objective interest, and the two cannot easily be separated.
Many have the FUNDAMENTAL belief that gold is a primary obstacle to debasement of currency, and thereby an obstacle to the currency issuer (i.e the Government through its Central Bank).
Government obtains its funds mostly through three methods: taxation, borrowing, and debasement of its currency. Since taxation is limited, especially within a democracy where the taxed elect the taxers, large-scale borrowing usually implies deferred debasement (increase of the money supply to repay the loans at their maturity). It is widely recognized that the US has facilitated debasement of the dollar by gradually lessening the formal connection of gold to the dollar: first refusing its citizens free exchange in the early thirties, then putting pressure on foreigners not to exercise free exchange in the sixties, and finally closing the "gold window" altogether in August of 1971. There is formally no gold connection with the dollar now, but there is still a practical connection, an important one: while there is not free exchange of the dollar for a fixed amount of gold (which would curb debasement), there is free exchange of the dollar for gold at the market rate. If people think that the market rate will rise in the future, they will buy gold NOW, which will increase that market rate (the price of gold), and this will make manifest to many that the dollar is being debased. And the advantage of debasement over taxation is precisely that debasement is not so obvious to the voters as is taxation.
And so the Government must do what it can to quell the prospect that the price of gold will rise. It would be naïve to think that the Government would not use whatever means it had at its disposal to curb a rise in the price of gold, just so long as it appears to the Government that the mass of people do not understand that the currency is being debased.
As fascinating as this all is to those whose interest in gold is objective, it is depressing to those whose interest is mainly subjective: to wit, to those who have invested in gold. For it adversely affects the investments of these people, among whom is the great majority of the posters at this site.
Presumably, efforts of Government to curb gold will become more intense as its need for funds becomes more intense. When the economy weakens and tax revenues drop, the need for funds increases. When war is imminent, the need for funds increases. The person who serves as focus for reaction to the acts of Government is its Chief Executive: presently, George W. Bush.
Perhaps some of all this is reflected in the posts of this site, and perhaps it is on this that Rookie is picking up.
21mabry (3/1/03; 18:35:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 98696)
gold market
I believe the news that Iraq destroyed its long range missls came out after gold markets were closed.If the gold market would have been open would there have been a large downward move is it coming monday.Does the destruction of these missles weaken President Bush and his aggressive stance against Hussien.
TownCrier (3/1/03; 18:15:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 98695)
HEADLINE: Hints of rising inflation in slack economy stir memories of 1970s stagflation
http://www.canada.com/vancouver/story.asp?id=1F5076F3-4B2F-4724-8EC2-738CCC799C57
NEW YORK (AP) - No sooner did hints of rising inflation emerge than the muttering began on Wall Street about the possible return of dreaded stagflation.
It was last seen three decades ago, when rising inflation, failing growth and surging unemployment crippled the North American economy. No one would welcome its return.
In periods of stagflation, economic growth is feeble but inflation roars ahead - as it normally would during times of rapid expansion.
It's a term that was coined in the 1970s after the OPEC oil embargo caused a dramatic surge in the cost of crude oil and gasoline and sent inflation soaring.
"High inflation pushed up interest rates and eroded buying power, and as a result consumer and business spending remained soft, preventing the economy from growing," said Sung Won Sohn, an economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis.
-------(see full text at url)-------
Last time, the price of gold was pushed up to $850 per ounce. This time around, there are far, far more dollars whirling around to settle into proportionately less gold per weakening buck. Act to protect your purchasing power with a prudent diversification into gold.
R.
21mabry (3/1/03; 18:06:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 98694)
yen
Was reading financial times,there was an article about the strong infighting going on in the bank of japan on whether to let the yen strengthen or weaken against the dollar,I am still trying to understand the implications. Boliermaker I thought about economics I am weak in math algebra was difficult for me I do not think I could get by calculus,I have taken I Q tests and score well until it comes to spatial ability the test givers always comment on this fact to me.
Boilermaker (3/1/03; 16:59:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 98693)
Randy
Excellent reminder. Many of us get caught up in the passions of the day. We must stay focused for the sake of our common but extremely important issue.
Boilermaker
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (3/1/03; 16:30:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 98692)
Ally yourself with a gold broker that is knowledgeable and also cares...
In the September 2000 issue of News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals' founder and proprietor Michael Kosares said:
"[M]uch of this issue is devoted to oil, inflation, international politics and gold. . . . . Though the dollar continued to rise against most international currencies during the past month, most currencies ( including the dollar) were depreciating against real goods. . . . AND IT IS THE TREND THAT HAS ECONOMISTS CONCERNED. Crude oil, which must be purchased with dollars, is being blamed as the chief culprit. When the dollar price of oil rises, it fans the inflationary fires of nearly every nation in the world. All of this could at some point inspire a dollar rebellion among the nations of the world, with both oil producers and oil consumers capable of finding fault with the dollar simultaneously . . . . In such a case gold, of course, would become one of the primary beneficiaries and the dollar could go into a tailspin."
Take note that was written in September, 2000. Those who took advantage of Mr. Kosares' analysis -- and many did -- have been rewarded in two ways:
1. They averted disaster in the stock market.
2. They have participated in gold's meteoric rise.
News & Views is available to our clientele only. However, the latest issue is back from the printer and available to prospective gold investors who request an INFORMATION PACKET on one-time only basis. We invite your request.
If you would like to get a feel for the thinking that forms the basis for market conclusions like the one featured above, take advantage of the offer to include THE ABCs of GOLD INVESTING: PROTECTING YOUR WEALTH THROUGH PRIVATE GOLD OWNERSHIP. A prompt with ordering information will come up after you submit your request for the INFORMATION PACKET.
TownCrier (3/1/03; 15:30:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 98691)
Rookie's observations
On one hand, I think it is likely that a large fraction of what you may be perceiving as "anti-American and anti-Bush attitudes" among participants is primarily a misdiagnosis of, especially, what might more properly be deemed overzealous expressions of anti-dollarization -- a sentiment often shared by posters both here and abroad. I say "overzealous" because the typical anti-dollar posts which are well-stated don't readily lend themselves to misinterpretation as an equivalent to anti-America.
That said, it is a sad truth that there are a small fraction of posts that appear here which seem unmistakably anti-U.S. and are seemingly put forth with no other objective than to vent a passionate negative opinion. In the same way, we receive posts that praise and glorify the U.S. and are seemingly put forth with no other objective than to vent a passionate positive opinion.
As OPINIONS, they each belong to an individual and are thus of equal merit -- whatever merit "opinion" has I shall leave to each reader to decide for himself.
FACTS, on the other hand, tend to speak for themselves. Unfortunately, opinions and facts often blur because rarely is the truth fully known; and where it IS fully known it isn't necessarily fully understood in the context of its surrounding. Interpretation is always involved, and thus, different individuals armed with various amounts of facts and differing interpretive skills will arrive and different opinions that reflect their very own important view of the world.
On a person by person basis, any given opinion matters only insofar as is shapes the decisions and actions taken by the individual who owns that opinion. However, in a democratically or market driven world of majority rule, these opinions as the motivation for actions start to take on great importance as they collectively influence large-scale operations, legislation, affiliations and movements of men and nations.
This is all very fascinating. It really is. Wouldn't it be nice if some good-intentioned soul with the necessary resources and resolve would set up a discussion forum specifically for the discussion of socio-geo-political opinion and its bearing on the future directions of man's large-scale interaction with man? That would be great! However, the focus of this forum, hosted by a well-intentioned gold brokerage, is a much more limited scope -- specifically, the ROLE OF GOLD in men's lives set against all these greater events and movements.
Where our posters go astray, to the detriment of this forum's purpose and long-term viability, is where they neglect the gold aspect (which binds us all as brothers and sisters) and instead fixate on their own singular geopolitical opinions, individually using their supply of stones for either throwing at others or raising an altar. In this way, all meaningful discussion ends as half-build altars become make-shift shelters as the remaining stones are employed to return fire. Again, this would be great stuff -- at another forum devoted to that purpose.
We do our best to keep the focus on gold through example, through reminders, and, when necessary, through "ex post" facto redaction, to put anasty business kindly.
Bottom line: if gold owners can't themselves set a good example of measured interaction among all the world, then I don't know which other body of people could fill the role. The challenge is offered, and I think we can rise to the occasion. If we don't, who will?
"There is always hope"
Thanks again to everyone who contributes in one way or another to maintaining the integrity of this gold forum, even if in no other way than by simply refraining from posting off topic or venting singular political opinions. While fascinating, as I've said before, this is not the place for that. Seek out your friends and family to get something off your chest because doing it here chips away at the foundation of this special gold edifice.
And of course, speaking of support, when you want to add more gold to your portfolio of wealth, please choose USAGOLD-Centennial as your brokerage.
Randy
R Powell (3/1/03; 15:11:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 98690)
Decreased Mexican silver supply
ElGordo, thanks for the heads-up (98665) on that metals report from Reuters. There was some similar news a while back, also about decreased Mexican production but further investigation revealed that Mexican ore was being shipped to Texas for processing. This meant silver derived from ore was decreased in Mexico because the ore was processed in the USofA. I remember talk also of striking workers which may have slowed production or, perhaps, caused the shipping of ore to Texas? So many conclusions have to be made with dubious information.
Whether this is a similar case or not remains to be seen. I have thought silver production is more closely tied to the prices of copper and zinc. A slowing economy should slow the demand for most base metals. It is ore processing for base metals that accounts for most of silver's production. The year 2002 may be recorded as one of decreasing demand for silver. I wonder how much in comparison to this coming demand number, has mining supply slowed? The final number will tell us if more existing supply was needed to balance supply/demand for 2002 or not. My guess is about an 80 million ounce downdraw for 2002 but it's only a guess. The possibility of silver use for pressure treating wood products brings to mind an additional use of silver that may be beyond the market's ability to supply.
Thanks for posting the article.
Rich
Foreigner (3/1/03; 14:46:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 98689)
Rooke (gone) post
Ooops, his post has been pulled out. Nevertheless he should do some thinking before offending other people.
Boilermaker (3/1/03; 14:39:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 98688)
21mabry #98619 -Career Choice
Here's your career plan:
We need some insiders at the Forum. Please consider a Masters degree and phD in Economics. Get a job with the Federal Reserve and become a Governor. And keep us poor devils here at the Forum advised what's going on.
Seriously, your interest in the discussions that take place here suggest you may be inclined to a field such as economics or finance. After 40 years of an engineering career I'm not too interested in technical matters except for their economic potential.
Foreigner (3/1/03; 14:18:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 98687)
A quote to consider by self-proclaimed "American Patriot"
This quote is attributed to Julius Caesar (although not appearing in any of his writings: "Beware the leader who bangs the drums of war in order to whip up the citizenry into a patriotic fervor, for patriotism is indeed a double-edged sword. It both emboldens the blood, just as it narrows the mind. And when the drums of war have reached a fever pitch and the blood boils with hate and the mind has closed, the leader will have no need in seizing the rights of the citizenry. Rather, the citizenry, infused with fear and blinded by patriotism, will offer up all of their rights unto the leader and gladly so. How do I know? For this is what I have done. And I am Caesar."
ge (3/1/03; 12:59:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 98685)
Morgan Stanley on current account balancing
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20030228-fri.html
Stephen Li Jen :
"One of the problems with the USD correction we've seen since the beginning of 2002 is that it has materialised primarily through the European axes and not the Asian axes."
...
"This is problematic because the goods market imbalances of the US are against Asia, not against Europe. USD weakness against the EUR and the GBP does very little to correct the current account (C/A) problem in the US. Indeed, the US C/A deficit continues to march toward the 5.5% of GDP mark, despite a weaker USD. For the US C/A imbalances to normalise, USD/Asia must correct!"
...
Eric Chaney :
"As the decline of the US dollar carries on — the US currency is only half-way on its way down, according to my colleague Stephen Jen — the situation will get even worse if the euro is the only counterpart to bear the burden of the rebalancing of the US economy. Well, it seems that this is the case, since most Asian currencies are practically linked to the USD. Using the weights used by the Fed for its own currency basket, it appears that a 10% effective depreciation of the USD would require a 50% rise of the EUR/USD rate. If only half of this is behind us, there is more pain coming for Europe. In addition, it seems that the well-established correlation between oil prices and the USD exchange rate is now inverted and that, practically, the euro has now taken the status of "petro-currency." Just imagine what would happen if crude oil prices stayed around $40 for some time."
ElGordo (3/1/03; 12:31:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 98684)
Mini-Me futures.
CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 27, 2003--The Board of Trade Clearing Corporation (the "Clearing Corporation") announced it has approved a temporary waiver of clearing fees for the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) mini-sized metals contracts.
The waiver of mini-sized Gold and mini-sized Silver futures are effective on March 1, 2003 and will expire on May 31, 2003, unless an extension is announced. The waiver covers all participants for open outcry and electronic trades.
"The Clearing Corporation supports the CBOT's endeavor to encourage additional volume growth in the mini-sized gold and silver futures contracts," said Michael C. Dawley, Chairman of the Board of the Clearing Corporation.
Additionally, the CBOT has announced an increase in trading volume in its mini-sized metals contracts, with open interest in mini-sized Gold futures reaching almost 2,000 contracts.
ElGordo (3/1/03; 12:21:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 98683)
Goldbug Heaven in Hong Kong! :-)
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/eastasia/view/33697/1/.html
Hong Kong's golden toilets attract thousands of Chinese tourists
Crowds of Chinese tourists desperate to catch a glimpse of the world's most expensive toilets are flocking to a Hong Kong jewellery shop in Kowloon.
On display in the shop is a pair of gleaming gold toilets in a gold tiled bathroom encrusted with precious gems.Advertisement
The entire bathroom costs US$7.6 million.
It attracts around 4,000 visitors every day, and most of them are from the mainland.
The bathroom is the brainchild of China-born jeweller Lam Sai-wing.
Many visitors are overawed by the show of opulence.
"We've never seen anything like this before. When you see it for the first time, it's like the most beautiful thing, the most, most beautiful thing. There is so much gold, we could never have imagined anything like this, never ever imagined," said Mr Wang, a Chinese tourist.
For some visitors, like Gao Qingyin from eastern Hangzhou, just looking at the toilets is not enough.
"What I mean is, wouldn't it be better if the toilet was open and each person could shut the door and use it, could sit down and really feel what it's like," Gao Qingyin said.
The working toilets do boast a state-of-the-art automatic flushing system but they are off-limits to tourists.
Visitors also have to don plastic covers over their shoes to avoid scuffing the 900-gram gold bars embedded in the floor.
Some impressed tourists have requested their own golden bathroom accessories after visiting the showroom.
"Well, they may not want to build exactly the same toilet or washroom in their house, but sometimes they will ask, 'I just want to order the golden frame or the water tank', like that way," Kathi Ng, President of the Hang Feng Gold Technology Group said.
ElGordo (3/1/03; 12:12:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 98682)
Border will screen for radiation
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/03/01/attack/main542445.shtml
(CBS) All travelers arriving in the United States will be screened by federal border inspectors for radiological materials beginning this weekend, according to Saturday's editions of The New York Times.
The newspaper quotes senior Bush administration officials as saying the plan is designed to stop terrorists from bringing nuclear material across the border. The Tinmes describes it as the most important in a series of counter-terrorism measures that are being put into place as the Customs Service, the Immigration and Naturalization Service and 18 other federal agencies formally merge into the new Department of Homeland Security on Saturday.
_______________
Sorry about the Turkey post, I should have waited a few minutes!
misetich (3/1/03; 12:07:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 98681)
EMU Fin Mins to Discuss Options in Case of Fin Crisis
http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/single_story.jsp?prod=114&ts=1046445780000&sn=3&banner=mainwire
Snip:
RUSSELS (MktNews) - Eurozone finance ministers will informally
discuss next week the policy response options in the event of severe
financial crisis or economic downturn in the course of the year,
according to sources.
During their normal discussion on the economy at their meeting here
next Thursday, ministers will discuss whether their "armoury" of policy
responses to a severe slowdown would be adequate.
"In case risks materialise, ministers will discuss a potential list
of measures that they would be ready to take," said an EU diplomat.
The risks on the horizon include a sustained spike in oil prices, a
prolonged conflict in the Gulf and the possibility of a continued
downturn in eurozone activity and confidence.
********
Misetich
If something out of the ordinary were to happen (and lets hope not) pursuant to an ill advised Iraqui invasion those "contingency plans" will be tested severely.
Got gold?
misetich (3/1/03; 12:00:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 98680)
Job Cuts Heavy
http://www.economeister.com/reg/popup/single_story.jsp?prod=114&ts=1046442000000&sn=1&banner=mainwire
Snip:
If the economy is pulling out of its "soft
patch," it's without the strength of the industrial sector.
........
Companies say
customers are buying in small quantities and on short notice. Rising
prices of oil and natural gas are constraining business, balanced in
part by significant export gains from the weakening dollar.
.........
Integrated Device (semiconductors) on Thursday projected flat
revenues and, like a host of others in the sector this month, announced
job cuts. Rudolph Technologies (chipmaking tools) also announced job
cuts on Thursday amid uneven business conditions. Emerson, a diversified
manufacturer, said weak demand for industrial goods is offsetting strong
demand for consumer goods.
..........
Misetich
US economy is on the brink of a new recession
Got gold?
misetich (3/1/03; 11:38:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 98679)
Saudi Warns of U.S. Casualties in 'Messy' Iraq War
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/World/reuters20030301_141.html
Snip:
— DUBAI (Reuters) - Key U.S. ally Saudi Arabia has warned a U.S.-led invasion of Iraq would plunge the Gulf region into chaos and do nothing but harm to all parties involved, including the United States.
Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal, in remarks to CNN broadcast on Saturday, also questioned U.S. intentions to help introduce democracy in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East.
"We would hate to see American soldiers paying the price for an occupation that will do nothing but bring terrible consequences to everybody," Prince Saud said.
"An occupation of Iraq is not simple. How (are) 250,000 troops going to maintain order in a country like that? Especially if war leads to the instability we think it will lead to, if it leads to chaos we think it will lead to. If the social order breaks down, who is going to be fighting who? It is going to be a mess we think," he added.
............
Asked about the U.S. aim, Prince Saud said: "If you get chaos in Iraq, how will democracy flower in Iraq? If you achieve victory and there is somebody occupying Baghdad...just imagine what the reaction could be in the Arab and Muslim world to that fact alone."
Prince Saud also challenged Bush's assertion that the removal of Saddam from power could create an opportunity for peace in the Middle East, saying Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon was an obstacle to peace and not the Iraqi leader.
"I think (that) removal of Mr. Sharon will be more apt to bring a solution to the question of the Palestinians than the removal of Saddam Hussein. He (Sharon) is the obstacle to peace," Prince Saud said.
********
Misetich
The risks of an ill-conceived invasion has serious consequences worldwide.
Why now? Why this forced timetable? Lets look in the Golden Crystal ball - and be ready to ride the Gold Bull Express!
Got gold?
misetich (3/1/03; 11:14:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 98678)
Turkish Speaker Nullifies U.S. Troop Vote
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/World/ap20030301_1150.html
Snip:
ANKARA, Turkey March 1 —
Turkey's parliament speaker nullified the legisature's vote Saturday to allow deployment of 62,000 U.S. combat troops to open a northern front against Iraq, saying a majority of those in the chamber had not voted in favor.
The vote was 264-250 with 19 abstentions.
Speaker Bulent Arinc said nullified the vote after it was challenged by the opposition.
The Turkish constitution demands a majority of those present must vote in favor for a bill to pass.
The vote Saturday was four short of a simple majority.
Arinc closed parliament after the vote until Tuesday.
The bill's rejection is likely to seriously increase tensions with the United States which had been expecting a positive vote.
...........
Some 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) away from parliament, some 50,000 Turks held a rally to protest the war.
"No to War," and "We don't want to be America's soldiers'," they shouted as some 4,000 police stood guard. Some carried banners that read: "The people will stop this war," and "Budget for education not war."
*********
Misetich
Back to the drawing board -
Got gold?
ElGordo (3/1/03; 10:19:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 98677)
Turkey says OK
ANKARA (Reuters) - Turkey's parliament on Saturday approved a long-awaited motion allowing deployment of thousands of U.S. troops here for a possible invasion of Iraq, a deputy told Reuters.
The resolution, which also clears the way for dispatching Turkish troops to Iraq in the case of war, was passed after hours of debate on an issue which has generated widespread opposition in Turkey.
Parliament's decision, which is crucial to U.S. military planners, paves the way for stationing 62,000 U.S. soldiers in Turkey to establish a "northern front" which experts say would shorten any war.
Fearing the economic and political impact of any conflict on its borders, Ankara had been reluctant to agree to any role in the war. A rejection of the U.S. request would however have deprived it of U.S. financial support and any say in the future of northern Iraq, where Turkey has key interests.
a nation of one (3/1/03; 10:05:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 98676)
like trees thirsty for a long rain
One thing is sure. It may occur after an extended wait. And in the meantime, the storm may gather. But it is a pretty safe bet that when the Big Boys' financial interests require that Joe Public suddenly feel stabbed by a hunger for noble gold, his greedy appetite will know no bounds. The coin that you are keeping then will be very hot to hold.
a nation of one (3/1/03; 09:38:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 98675)
ethereal notes
At some point human adults need to recognize that to base a currency on sheer confidence is to create specific types of vulnerability. They must also become aware that to 'invest' their money in company stocks, simply because someone says it is a good thing, is ignorant stupidity. Stocks are still too high. There can be no question of this. There are only two reasons to buy stocks. One, to get dividends. Or, two, to get capital gains. Dividends are paid from earnings, if there are any, and if the payments are legitimate, not bookkeeping tricks. Gains result from growth, which only happens under certain very specific conditions, about which there is no mystery. The period of general growth in company stocks is over. The beginning of such growth has -in recent history- depended on easy money, created by low interest rates, making borrowing less difficult. Interest rates are low again now, and still no company in its right mind dares to borrow. This is the case for numerous reasons. Private payments on private debt is curtailing personal expenditures, not just a little, but a lot. The public's confidence has been abused and is therefore lost. Hopefully, it will stay lost. It is only by knowledge, not by confidence, that investments should be made. Companies know these facts and realize that profit potentials are reduced because of them. The public has been severely burned, and some of it continues to be. No halfway wise adult male or female now has any trust whatever in the stock markets. Only gullible people with their eyes closed and their morales pumped up really think they ought to. And many are those who prey on them and stuff their pockets with their money. One wonders -if murder were legal- how many brokers would not be strangled or shot. The number of human individuals is growing, who see what is happening: the ruse, the guile, the predatory nature of our nation's present stock and money dealings, and the unsound nature of its own 'money managing'. The only thing that keeps it going is poor education in public schools, absence of any pertinent information by mongers of the news, and condemnable omissions of the truth by 'official' mouths. Gold has value. That does matter. Gold has never collapsed. Gold cannot be printed. Dealers in gold are not known for cheating people when selling it to them, or when buying it from them. The world's most practiced financial wizards -when they accumulate for value- accumulate gold, not merely marked on paper, but the real, precious stuff. Ladies wear it to display their own wealth. And so do men. Nobody would ever make a necklace out of dollars and then wear it like gold. Even nations rely on its character. We should do no less.
White Rose (3/1/03; 09:14:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 98674)
A guess when the Iraq war starts
About 5:00 pm March 2, 2003. Around midnight Iraq time, and too late to be mentioned in church or organize any protests for the weekend.
a nation of one (3/1/03; 08:45:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98673)
a little more education
Reply to Dollar Bill.
Dr. Hans Sennholz says: "The 1990s, finally, seemed to defy all rules of economic behavior. Easy money and credit spurred the most explosive stock market boom in U.S. history, creating enormous speculative wealth and spawning new companies. With financial markets booming, the federal government even reported a budget surplus, borrowing from Social Security trust accounts. The balance-of-payment deficit became a major concern as imports soared and exports stagnated, which further raised the mountain of debt."
--Of all the statements that he makes, the first sentence of this quote is one which most clearly reveals the state of his knowledge. By saying that the 1990s seemed to defy the rules of economics, he discloses to us his failure to comprehend the way in which the rules of economics apply to the 1990s. As an example of how absurd his statement is, imagine a symphony conductor saying, "The cellos simply were not acting as cellos. What they were doing defied the rules of cello playing." Now, maybe you don't know all the rules of cello playing, but competent cello players do, and so does every competent symphony conductor. All of the playing characteristics of cellos have been known for a long time. Of course, if you pick up a cello and then toss it into a dumpster, and it makes funny sound as it gets knocked around in there, and if you call that cello playing, then you can say that all the rules of cello playing were not previously known. But if you're talking about what's useful in an orchestra, that's not music. The same applies to economics, or to anything. Remove economics from the field of its legitimate meaning, and then you can say anything. But if you want to discuss real economics, where money serves valid functions, then the known rules will apply. In saying that the 1990s seemed to him not to fit within the rules of economics, Dr. Sennholz is telling us that either not all the rules of economics are known, perhaps just by him (but perhaps also by others), or that what the 1990s consisted of was not economics. Neither implication is beneficial or correct.
Dollar Bill (3/1/03; 08:06:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 98672)
A little edjacatin
Dr. Hans Sennholz
Grove City, PA - In their election oratory politicians usually stress their love of fiscal discipline and balanced budgets. But as soon as they are elected they tend to discover a great number of exceptions that require more funding.
President Bush clearly made the election pledge to avoid budget deficits, but, ever since September 11, 2001, his budget proposals built on exceptions project a deficit of more than $300 billion for each of the next few years. Yet, he also argues for prompt tax reduction, which signals a brand-new course of action in the annals of fiscal policy.
The prospect of soaring deficits and simultaneous tax reductions alarms a few economists. On this new fiscal road they foresee deficits of $500 billion or even $600 billion annually, which in time may cast doubt on the credibility of the federal government as debtor. Every few months the Congressional debt ceiling needs to be lifted by a few hundred billion dollars. Congress last raised it by $450 billion to $6.4 trillion on June 30, 2002; it needs to be lifted right now as the official Treasury debt again has reached the ceiling. At the present rate of spending it will need to be lifted in June or July of this year and, in case of war with Iraq, even earlier. The federal deficits are compounded by the budget shortfalls of most state governments, estimated at some $105 billion in 1992-1993. State governments are required legally to balance their budgets, which forces them either to raise taxes or cut expenditures. Undoubtedly, most prefer to boost their fees and exactions; the proposed federal tax reduction, if and when it finally passes the U.S. Congress, may even compound their problems as many state systems are based on the federal tax structure.
Both deficits, the federal and the state, constitute a heavy burden on the capital market which keeps no idle savings amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars. They force the Federal Reserve System to come to the rescue; it can print any amount of money and create any volume of credit. The Fed is the financier of last resort, the ultimate source of funds that enables the federal government to finance any conceivable expenditure and cover any possible deficit. Without the Fed, fiscal deficits of such magnitude would soon depress the American economy and cause serious political repercussions.
Its ability to create dollars that enjoy world-wide acceptability enables it to distribute the burden of U.S. Government deficits to countless millions of dollar holders all over the globe. They pay for the deficits through depreciation of the dollars in their pockets. Japanese and Chinese, Arabs and Hindus, French and Germans, and all others with dollar savings join Americans in bearing the burden of federal deficits.
This ability to place the economic cost of government spending on millions of trusting victims rests on the extraordinary position of the U.S. dollar as the world's primary reserve currency. The dollar acquired this distinction by international agreement reached at Bretton Woods in New Hampshire in 1944 which committed the United States to provide an anchor for world prices by pegging the dollar at $35 per ounce of gold and envisioned a world economy linked by fixed dollar exchange rates.
When the United States suffered chronic gold losses and finally faced inability to make payments in gold, President Nixon severed the dollar's gold link in August 1971, devalued the dollar against major foreign currencies in December 1971, and finally floated it in March 1973. The world has been on a floating dollar standard ever since. It is a fiat standard, unbacked and irredeemable, which can be inflated and depreciated at will. Managed by the Federal Reserve System, it is a useful standard in the financial service of the U.S. Government.
Other countries are narrowly limited in their ability to inflate and create credit; if they indulge in expansion rates greater than those of their neighbors and trade partners, they would soon face payment difficulties as imports increase and exports decline. They would have to reduce the expansion rates and fall in line with their neighbors and partners. The Federal Reserve System as the manager of the world dollar standard has no such narrow limits. It can inflate and create credit as long as its expansion does not exceed the world-wide demand for its currency. It may generate trade deficits year after year and aggravate its maladjustments as long as foreign banks and investors hoard the dollars or invest them in American obligations. It is bound to cause world-wide financial upheavals, however, when it depreciates the dollar at excessive rates and thereby inflicts painful losses on those foreign investors.
The floating system based on the U.S. dollar has been a precarious structure ever since its inception. During the 1970s the country suffered the worst inflation in decades. By the end of the decade the inflation rate stood at 13 percent, the Federal Reserve discount rate at 12 percent, and the prime lending rate at 15.75 percent, the highest of the century. The dollar had fallen notably in relation to the currencies of other trading countries and especially to gold.
The 1980s saw some economic recovery but also brought new difficulties and more maladjustments. They led to an explosion of personal, business, and government debt which cast a shadow on the future of the financial structure. Federal government debt soared from approximately $950 billion to nearly $3 trillion. A growing share of this debt was acquired by foreign banks and investors who used the widening imbalance of American imports over exports to invest their earnings in the United States.
The 1990s, finally, seemed to defy all rules of economic behavior. Easy money and credit spurred the most explosive stock market boom in U.S. history, creating enormous speculative wealth and spawning new companies. With financial markets booming, the federal government even reported a budget surplus, borrowing from Social Security trust accounts. The balance-of-payment deficit became a major concern as imports soared and exports stagnated, which further raised the mountain of debt.
Toward the end of the decade, in 1998, the floating dollar standard suffered a number of financial shocks that began in Asia and eventually struck fragile economies around the world. American equity markets continued to surge until 2000 when an economic slowdown became evident also in the United States. In 2001, finally, the American economy slipped into recession for the first time in ten years. The Federal Reserve immediately cut interest rates, a record eleven times in one year; the U.S. Congress passed a large multi-year tax cut, and the U.S. Treasury even sent out tax rebates to boost consumer spending. Yet, the markets continued to plunge following the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001.
According to various market analyses, foreign investors now own some $7 trillion of U.S. assets, 13 percent of American corporate stock, 35 percent of U.S. Treasury obligations, 23 percent of corporate bonds, and 14 percent of ownership in American companies. They obviously do not take kindly to Federal Reserve policies that depreciate the dollar and depress its exchange rate. Last year alone, European investors in the S&P 500 lost 38 percent on their property compared to just 24 percent suffered by U.S. investors because of the fall of the dollar versus the euro. Suffering such losses, their interest in American investments is bound to decline. They may even liquidate and withdraw their holdings, which could lead to a crushing stampede to the exits.
We now face a situation that resembles the late 1970s when the world began to abandon the dollar and liquidate American investments. It took two years of Federal Reserve inactivity and 20 percent interest rates to restore foreign confidence and lure foreigner investors and creditors back. Today, the Fed is doing the opposite; it is making every effort to stimulate the economy by flooding the money market while the U.S. Treasury is accelerating its deficit spending. Both point towards monetary upheavals and deep global recession straight ahead, and both cast a shadow on the future of the floating dollar standard.
misetich (3/1/03; 06:34:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 98670)
No Relief in Sight - By PAUL KRUGMAN
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/28/opinion/28KRUG.html
Snip:
The conventional wisdom among business forecasters now calls for growth of a bit more than 3 percent over the next year. Growth at that pace is barely enough to keep up with rising productivity and an expanding labor force, not enough to make a serious dent in unemployment. And a growing number of forecasters think the conventional wisdom is overoptimistic, that the pain is about to get even worse.
One reason is the surge in oil prices, which acts like a big tax increase, siphoning off spending that might otherwise have helped create jobs.
..........
Then there's the effect of the worst fiscal crisis in the 50 states since World War II. Iris Lav of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities suggests that tax increases and spending cuts at the state level could drain $100 billion from the national economy over the next year.
.........
Finally, the increasingly grim mood of consumers can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. If disheartened families cut their spending, the job picture will worsen even further.
.........
Why is the administration so uninterested in helping the economy? Here's my theory: The depressed state of the economy provides a convenient if bogus rationale for the huge, extremely irresponsible long-run tax cuts that, after Iraq, constitute this administration's principal obsession.
**********
Misetich
Lets keep on eye on the real key - consumer spending - tic..toc...tic..toc..
Got gold?
Sundeck (03/01/03; 02:14:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 98667)
Barrick Gold seeks to dismiss Blanchard case
http://www.forbes.com/markets/commodities/newswire/2003/02/28/rtr894099.html
Snip:
"
TORONTO, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Barrick Gold Corp. <ABX.TO> (nyse: ABX - news - people), target of an anti-trust lawsuit alleging that it manipulated gold prices, said on Friday it filed a motion to dismiss the case.
"It's completely without merit and that's why we have moved today in response to it and have filed motions to dismiss the whole case," Barrick spokesman Vince Borg told Reuters.
..."
Sundeck: Well they would wouldn't they...let's wait for the next chapter to see what happens.
Gandalf the White (3/1/03; 00:44:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 98666)
TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA, TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!!
http://www.usagold.com/contest.html
Contest update!
Join the fun and you could win the Gold and/or Silver !!
Just go to the above LINK and follow "The Yellow Brick Road"!!
There alrady have been fifteen brave "EARLY BIRDS" that Prognosticated the POG Settlement of 3/13/03, AND that have also submitted the same number of diverse concept entries in the ESSAY "confession" contest.
2/28/03 Apr 03 COMEX Contract
HIGH = $351.5 low = $345.3 Settlement = $350.3 Change +$4.1
Yesterday¹s Open Interest 107869
At this time 2/28/03, (until at least Monday), Sir Kevin$ is the "King of the Hill" !!!
COME ON IN all you Lurkers, and walk away with a CLINK in your pocket !
<;-)
ElGordo (03/01/03; 00:01:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98665)
Rich -> silver production down 12% in Mexico
http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030228/minerals_mexico_silver_2.html
MEXICO CITY, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Silver output in Mexico, the
world's largest producer, fell to 233,612 kilograms in December,
down 12.2 percent versus the same month a year earlier, the
National Statistics Institute (INEGI) said.
For full-year 2002, Mexico produced 2,852,138 kilograms of
silver.
A breakdown of metals production follows:
Product Dec 2002 Pct Chge
vs yr ago
Gold 1,620 kgs -43.7
Silver 233,612 kgs -12.2
Lead 10,577 tonnes -23.4
Copper 25,583 tonnes -11.9
Zinc 32,265 tonnes -11.9
Note: Precious metals in kilograms and base metals in
tonnes.
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
