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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 6/1/2002 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Chris Powell (06/01/02; 23:07:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 77262) Reg Howe's presentation to the mining analyst conference in London http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary21.html#anchor22027 12:46a ET Sunday, June 2, 2002Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:Reg Howe's presentation to the Association of MiningAnalysts in London on May 23 has been posted atGoldenSextant.com. You can find it here:http://www.goldensextant.com/commentary21.html#anchor22027With his usual brilliance, Reg describes the backgroundof his lawsuit against the gold cabal in U.S. District Court in Boston, the meaning of Judge Lindsay's decision, the history of the United States' conversion from money of intrinsic money to inconvertible paper money, the evidence of surreptitious rigging of the gold price bygovernments, and where all this leaves us. It's must reading, and ranks with the last investigative report by James Turk of the Freemarket Gold and Money Report and Robert K. Landis' essay about Barrick's hedge book.CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/TreasurerGold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. vermillion (06/01/02; 21:08:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 77261) what happens if a nuclear bomb blows up in your home town? http://www.howstuffworks.com/framed.htm?parent=nuclear-bomb.htm&url=http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/bomb/sfeature/blastmap.html here you can plot the distruction and the fallout of a typical blast from a nuclear bomb and superimpose the image over your home town.Do you think that perhaps the Pakistan leadership is presently being shown stuff like this (along with video)to give them pause?P.S. congrats to the winners! Waverider (06/01/02; 21:03:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 77260) Gold dealers doing big business http://www.startribune.com/stories/535/2873624.html Snippit:"On Friday, as gold prices rose to their highest level in more than two years, coin and precious metals dealers said their phones won't stop ringing. "The world has changed," said George Cooper of Centennial Precious Metals, a Denver-based company with dozens of customers in the Twin Cities. "I get calls from New York City, and they wouldn't have talked to me two years ago to save my life. They believed in Wall Street, and now they're basically running scared. Greed feeds the stock market, fear feeds the gold market."Cooper, who normally can all but close up shop in the summer but is now thinking about hiring sales help, is much more optimistic. He thinks that by year's end the price of gold will go up at least a $100 an ounce or more. "I can hear the fear in their voice that all is not well," he said. "It's nervous buying, driven by fear. People are looking for safety and security, and that's what gold provides."Waverider: Way to go CPM! sector (06/01/02; 19:07:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 77259) War Analysis-It May be a Long One...With Big Trouble at the End http://www.debka.com/ http://www.debka.com/Judging by the way international crises are going at present, DEBKAfile's military experts do not rule out the possibility of the fall months of September and October 2002 seeing three full-scale wars raging at one and the same time, between India and Pakistan, the US and Iraq and Israel and the Palestinians.To ward off an additional complication, Bush applied all his powers of persuasion to making Russian president Vladimir Putin cut back on technological and military aid for completing the development of Iran's nuclear weapons capability. This was the main topic at issue between the two presidents when they met in the third week of May. Putin promised to see what he could do, but nothing has so far been known to happen. Pakistan's nuclear weaponry is a worry to Washington, as much as the Iranian and Iraqi nuclear capabilities. Though saying little, the US administration has been haunted by the thought of Pakistan's nuclear weapons falling into the hands of Muslim extremists like al Qaeda. It would therefore welcome the elimination of Islamabad's nuclear option, even if this came about as a result of a full-scale Indo-Pakistani war.**DEBKAfile's military and Asian sources disclose that both sides have laid their war plans for the worst-case scenario: India's Strategy: Indian troops would drive into different parts of Pakistan: Jumping off from Amritsar in the Punjab, they will head west and advance on the east Pakistani towns of Gujranwala, Lahore and Faisalabad, hotbeds of Muslim extremist groups, including the Lashkar-e-Toiba, Jamat al Dawa and al Qaeda militants, who provide recruits to be trained for combat n Kashmir. The Indian army appears to be preparing to emulate some of the tactics employed in the Israel Preventive Shield Operation against Palestinian towns in April.**Pakistan's Strategy: The Pakistani army is not big enough to match India's ability to fight on three fronts. Its generals will therefore focus on an all-out attempt to leap from the Pakistani Punjab to the Indian Punjab and on south to HaryanaState. A second task force will collect in the central Pakistani region of Bahawalpur ready to spring into IndianHaryanaState and cover the distance to New Delhi. The chances of these two forces actually reaching the gates of New Delhi are slim, but the attempt calls for audacity.American intelligence evaluations of the progress of the Indo-Pakistan war recently swung round sharply from a short, intense conflict to a drawn-out struggle that could stretch over many months, together with an estimate of between four to six weeks into the fighting before either of the belligerents considers whether or not to bring out its nuclear weapons.++++++++++++++++++++Note the incursion style [Jenin] strategy planned by India.It's tough to argue against this position when the "Termites" keep coming East. Cavan Man (06/01/02; 18:41:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 77258) Dollar/Euro Top Financial News 06/01 10:17Dollar May Extend Record Stretch of Declines: Currency OutlookBy Beth ThomasNew York, June 1 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may continue to fall against the euro as investors move capital away from the U.S. on concern the pace of recovery is slowing. ``There is a fundamental shift out of U.S. dollar investments going on,'' said Laurie Cameron, head of global foreign exchange in New York at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s private bank, which invests $300 billion. The U.S. is ``not going to be able to attract huge new chunks of foreign capital'' needed to support the dollar, she said. The U.S. currency dropped for a record fourth month against the euro, sinking 3.5 percent in May to 93.33 cents per euro. The dollar's four-month drop against the yen, to 124.26 yen, was the longest since the last half of 1999. It touched a 16-month low against the euro and a six-month low versus the yen on Thursday. Against a basket of currencies including the yen, euro, Swiss franc, British pound, Swedish krona and Canadian dollar, the dollar has lost 5.8 percent of its value so far this quarter. More than $1 billion a day flows from the U.S. to foreign hands as a result of the U.S. current-account deficit, which swelled to a record $417.4 billion in 2001. That leaves the currency vulnerable when international investors shift to other countries. ``There's a growing questioning of the ability of the U.S. to continue to finance (the deficit) as it has done up to now,'' said Tim O'Dell, who helps oversee about $25 billion at Investec Asset Management in London. Money Flows Europeans bought $17.1 billion more stocks and bonds from U.S. investors than they sold in January and February, down from $54 billion in the same period a year earlier, and compared with $61 billion in the first two months of 2000, according to U.S. Treasury figures. Money managers are turning outside the world's largest economy on expectations growth and corporate profits may be slow to recover from recession. After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to a 40-year low of 1.75 percent last year, returns on U.S. fixed-income investments are also less appealing. Yields on 10-year German bunds, for example, are 11.5 basis points higher than those on U.S. Treasury notes of the same maturity. That's a reversal from two months ago, when the U.S. debt had a 17 basis-point advantage. In the past, ``if you're a European or Japanese investor, you'd invest in the U.S. because you expect better returns,'' said Guillaume Sciard, who manages 2.2 billion euros ($2 billion) at Barclays Asset Management France in Paris. ``Now there's a question mark about the U.S. currency.'' Euro `Magnet' Sciard holds more euro-denominated bonds relative to his benchmarks than dollars, British pounds and yen. He said the euro may climb to $1 by the end of the year. Reports showing German business confidence rose for a sixth month in seven are fueling optimism for growth in the 12-nation economy and stoking demand for assets in the common currency, investors said. ``There's a serious possibility the euro is going to emerge as a leading magnet for disaffected dollar money,'' said Investec's O'Dell, who holds ``significantly'' more euro- denominated investments than suggested by his benchmarks. Money also flows to Europe as a result of the current-account surplus, which grew to 3.7 billion euros ($3.45 billion) in March from a deficit of 600 million euros ($560 million) a year earlier, the European Central Bank said. ``The euro has got a good shot at becoming the currency of the year,'' said Peter Fontaine at KBC Asset Management in Brussels, which invests 25 billion euros in bonds. Doubts Some investors disagree. ``There are problems in the U.S., but productivity growth is still much higher than in Europe,'' said Joop Bresser, who helps oversee 17 billion euros ($15 billion) at Delta Lloyd Asset Management in Amsterdam. ``I'm in doubt about whether this euro rally will continue.'' The U.S. economy will expand at an annualized 3.1 percent this quarter, compared with 5.6 percent in the first, according to the consensus of the Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey. The European Commission cut its growth estimates to 0.2 percent from 0.3 percent for the first quarter and to between 0.3 percent and 0.6 percent in the second for the dozen-nation economy. Yen Sales? Japan's yen rose as foreign investors lifted the Nikkei 225 stock index 17 percent in the past four months. Overseas investors were net buyers of Japanese stocks for the six weeks ended May 24, according to the Tokyo Stock Exchange. A report next week will show the world's No. 2 economy grew an annualized 6.8 percent in the January-March period, according to economists' forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The prospect of a recovery from Japan's worst post-war recession is bolstering optimism for the country's assets, some investors said. Still, the yen's rally may stall on concern Japan will again sell the currency. The central bank sold the yen on three days in the past two weeks to keep it from gaining more and eroding exporters' earnings. ``We are paying close attention to the currency,'' as ``we can expect them to come in regularly and slow any rapid moves,'' said Andrew Milligan, who helps manage 75 billion pounds ($110 billion) at Standard Life Investments in Edinburgh. Waverider (06/01/02; 18:37:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 77257) Turkey Hunter, Slingshot, Kevin$ Congratulations to all of you, well done! I raise my beer to you as I head for my lawn chair to finish Hubbert's Peak...cheers to the winning contestants! Waverider YGM (06/01/02; 18:32:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 77256) Recorded in History.........And "History" it will be! http://www.gata.org/honor_board.html There are 72 Names on the GATA Honor Roll. Names of those who were out there chin first. Publicly standing out and up for their beliefs. Now noone would think less of those who financialy supported GATA thru donations made in silence cause there are so many and anonyminity must be respected for whatever reason.....Without the silent masses the GATA war probably could not have been waged.....But the Honor Roll should have "Thousands" of names on it, not just 72.....I believe with all my heart and soul that the 'Gold Anti- Trust Action Committee' will cause books to be written in future times.....GATA is and will be the primary reason that Central Banks were foiled in the 'Greatest Gold Scam' of all time! Reg Howe and so many others will have their recorded place also, but GATA is the Army that took the Battle to the forefront.This GATA Army 'Honor Roll' will serve as an Epitaph when we the few "True Advocates" of Gold are long gone and forgotten!Disclaimer: This post has no connection to the GATA Officers and is unauthorized and entirely my personal thoughts.....YGM. YGM (06/01/02; 17:57:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 77255) GoldnSilver2002 (06/01/02; 16:29:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 77252) You Said It! We all (most) tend to forget about the gazillions $$ right here in N America, Mexico, S America and Europe when we focus on the Gold buying power of India, Japan, China & Arabs etc....Big, Big, GOLD HUNGRY WORLD out there!!!I firmly believe we're watching what will be much recordedhistory in the making....Let'er rip!Central Banksters and their NWO domination are going to get a dose of peaceful revolution thru mass exodus from their Fiat tyranny and monetary/financial brainwashing....YGMPS: GATA will never outlive it's purpose or usefulness. I believe it will always be around as a Worldly Watch-Dog & possibly the people's "Advocate" in as yet unknown arenas! Just my opinion tho....YGM rsjacksr (06/01/02; 17:57:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 77254) Re:Pippin (06/01/02; 14:49:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 77249) "I did not know that Newmont was hedged btw." Newmont became hedged when it acquired Normandy. In the last couple of days, we have had a least five post with regards to the percentage of production that miners have hedged via Mr. Schultz and company. The article, in it's entirety was re-printed by YGM. See any of the listings below:YGM (5/29/02; 20:09:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 76916)YGM (5/29/02; 23:45:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 76952)JCTex (05/30/02; 08:21:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 76996)Troy Boy (05/30/02; 08:14:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 76994)Canuck (5/30/02; 05:05:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 76976) Black Blade (06/01/02; 17:43:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 77253) Rumsfeld heading to India, Pakistan http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=716&e=18&cid=676&u=/usatoday/20020531/ts_usatoday/4156006 Snippit:WASHINGTON -- As an Indian official warned that war is growing more likely, President Bush said he will send Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to India and Pakistan in the next week to try to defuse tensions between the two nuclear powers. The chief minister of Indian-controlled Kashmir, Farooq Abdullah, warned, ''If cross-border terrorism and mortar firing is not stopped (by Pakistan), there's nothing that can prevent a major conflict.''Black Blade: Cross border attacks continue today. Last night Pakistan ordered at total blackout on fears of imminent air attack. Indian officials have stated that war was imminent and that cross border invasions could start within two weeks. Pakistani troops have been moved from the Afghani border to Kashmir. Pakistani generals have stated that they reserve the right to first use of nuclear weapons due to their disadvantage in conventional warfare material, all the while Musharraf has stated that only a madman would use nuclear weapons in spite of each country manufacturing more. Meanwhile US and UK citizens are being evacuated from both countries – including embassy personnel and their families. "Interesting Times" GoldnSilver2002 (06/01/02; 16:29:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 77252) Looking into the future..341 in sight now Congratulations TurkeyHunter!Whens the next contest?In my opinion,no amount of analysts screaming sell now!Will stop the bull run in gold and silver.Before we had no coverage on Gold,now at least some is good and the rest is better than none.The more these turkeys scream "sell sell gold now",people think to themselves,"wait a minute i dont have any gold,i better get some.!"Soon (not so little) ladies investment group u.s.a ,eager to get back the money these crooks on wall street took will come running back to gold still able to remember 1980 and earlier.Wall street is turning green,as the 2 trillion on the sidelines starts a huge drive to the precious metals.As the dow dips or even goes sideways gold and silver drive up ever faster.I believe the cartel lost control of gold at 308/per oz.In 2 weeks it climbed to 326 and higher,not numbers those in control want to see,no wonder drumsfeld flew to india."stop it now,your driving gold prices out of control" To which the pakistanis replied ,"have you seen our new nukes?"This situation cannot be stopped and soon the american public will be turning to the DOw,nasdaq exits.At this rate gold should hit 341 in 2 weeks and in about 1 month the dreaded 354 to 360 price that snaps the cabals backs.Those damn paper gold shorts are gonna blink soon.MOnday should get real interesting.Its JUne boys watch out!!!! misetich (06/01/02; 16:22:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 77251) Whilst most are optimistics on the US econony recovery corporate insiders turn bearish "There has been huge, huge insider selling," said Phil Roth, the veteran technical analyst at Miller Tabak, referring to legal sales by corporate officers and directors, not to illegal trading on inside information. He noted that over the last eight weeks, there had been 4.2 insider sales for every insider purchase reported. There are usually more open-market sellers than buyers, since insiders get a lot of their stock by exercising options, but this ratio is higher than it ever was in the 1990's bull market.http://www.nytimes.com/2002/05/31/business/31NORR.html(requires registration) Old Yeller (06/01/02; 15:49:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 77250) The Economist on Argentina's woes http://www.economist.co.uk/cities/displaystory.cfm?story_id=1154506 No mention of gold and silver being used as money as the crisis intensifies.Being a country rich in both metals,it would seem as if someone with an alternative vision on just what constitutes a rich country could go a long way in Argentina.Seeing that the US is deemed to be the model to emulate,a quick perusal of the US balance sheet would just show another Argentina,only one that dwarves the debt burden by a multitude of thousands.So why is the dollar valuble,yet the peso is deemed worthless?Since the IMF has decided to let Argentina twist in the wind and the fact remains that Argentina is a country rich in resources,trading agricultural output for gold and silver only,especially at today's artificially created prices would seem to be a valid solution.While doing this,the hyprocrisy and moral bankruptcy of US monetary authorities should be stressed as well as an organized boycott of US dollar use within the country.All holders of US dollars should be encouraged to convert to physical gold and silver and to conduct their business using this virtually risk free money that is out of reach of government and bankers.Vision for constructive change will never be obtained within a system of legalized theft and counterfeiting which is the Bretton Woods agreement.It is time for a victim of this horrific plundering to stand up and say,"We're as mad as hell and we're not going to take it anymore". Pippin (06/01/02; 14:49:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 77249) GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM , PALLADIUM & DIAMONDS http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chapman/chapman060102.html Found an interesting editorial by Mr Chapman. I did not know that Newmont was hedged btw.QuotesGOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM , PALLADIUM & DIAMONDSThe gold miners in South Africa are contemplating another industry wide strike that could send gold prices flying higher.As gold hit $310 an ounce JP Morgan Chase analysts decried that the potential for further gains were small and an over-bought situation had developed. Gold is now $318 and ounce. So much for JPM predictions. This sell recommendation came just before gold reached its former recent high and was an attempt to manipulate the market. A letter writing campaign to the SEC, NASD, FTC and the New York State AG's office demanding JPM declare its gold and gold share positions is in order. This will put more pressure on the cartel. We have contended for 42 years that in situations like today's markets you can throw charts out the window except for day trading. They just won't work. We see the chance of a terrorist attack over the 4th of July weekend at even money and you can't get that off a chart nor can you get the affects of manipulation. Let's force Morgan to reveal their positions and in this way we can disarm them. If the world understood that the national value of Morgan's derivative position was $60 trillion they'd freak out....If gold remains in the $315 to $350 range for the remainder of the year the financial situation for Barrick and AngloGold will look bleak and Placer's situation isn't encouraging. The top four hedgers Barrick, AngloGold, Placer Dome and Newmont have 50 million ounces of hedge commitments, 50%, of which belong to Barrick....The timeline for the Ashanti hedge book, which with the assistance of Goldman Sachs blew-up, is December 31,2002. That's when the margin has to be covered. Gold should be at $384 an ounce by then and Ashanti will go the way of the dodo bird....On 5/29/02 Goldman Sachs recommended the sale of three gold stocks and was negative on the group. When asked by CNBC if they owned these stocks they said they were short and long. We have an unimpeachable inside source that tells us that they are 98% short and 2% long. That is why CNBC refuses to ask real probing questions just softballsUnQuote Boilermaker (06/01/02; 14:29:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 77248) David Tice Commentary of 5/22/02 http://www.prudentbear.com/PDF/annual.pdf The first 8 pages of this 40 page pdf file (semi-annual report for the Prudent Bear Funds) are David Tice's latest read on the US economy. Here's the sub-headings to give you some feel for the contents;The MarketsThe EconomyReal Estate BubbleArgentina's LessonBack to the USAThe Disappearance of the GuardianDerivitivesThe Key Issue-Dollar RiskTice makes a compelling comparison of Argentina vs. US policy, eg., "it is a grevious policy error to adopt a monetary structure that is unsustainable over the longer-term and vulnerable to implosion, no matter how immediately expedient. When it comes to monetary policymaking, conservatism must overrule seductive experimentalism."This is a very worthwhile article. Congratulations to the contest winners from one who was lucky enough in the past to have been one. Black Blade (06/01/02; 14:10:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 77247) Gold price surges to two-year high on war fears, strong demand in Asia http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/020601/asia_going_for_gold_1.html Snippit:HONG KONG (AP) -- The money-counting machine at the crowded Bao Tin gold shop in a quiet back street of Hanoi seems to endlessly churn through bills. The shop's workers snatch time between sales to log onto the Internet, checking prices in London and Hong Kong. "Every time I save enough money, I buy some gold. It doesn't matter to me what the price is, because it's for savings," says Tran Tri Loan, a vegetable and flower farmer. The business of gold is booming in Vietnam, as it seems to be almost everywhere these days. Terrorism fears, Middle East tensions, renewed hostilities between India and Pakistan, Japan's wobbly economy -- all have contributed to the recent surge in the price of gold to its highest level in more than two years. Added to the speculative pressures driving the flight into gold is the age-old appetite for the precious metal among Asians, who traditionally have used it as a hedge against uncertainty. Worldwide, purchases of gold investment products surged 36 percent in the first quarter of the year, helped by the strong buying in Vietnam and Japan, as well as China, Pakistan and Turkey, the London-based World Gold Council reported. Vietnamese hoard the stuff, hoping to save enough to buy homes priced in gold taels -- equivalent to 37.75 grams (1.32 ounces). Mainland Chinese tourists flood into glittery Hong Kong gold shops to pick up chunky gold necklaces and bracelets -- symbols of new affluence. Japanese have been shifting a share of their massive nest eggs into gold, wary of new government limits of deposit insurance and desperate for investments that might gain them more than the 0.1 percent interest rates now paid by troubled banks. Japanese demand soared to 56.5 tons (50.9 metric tons) in the first quarter of this year, more than double the 22.1 tons (19.9 metric tons) bought in the same period a year ago, and more than half the total 109.3 tons (98.4 metric tons) bought by Japanese in all of 2001, said the World Gold Council, an association of gold producers. Black Blade: Very good article worth reading. Growth in Gold portfolio insurance is taking off – especially now as the world is taking a dangerous shift and the global economy is very uncertain. Black Blade (06/01/02; 13:59:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 77246) Investors Rolling in Cash, Avoid Stocks http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020525/column_stocks_week_1.html Snippit:NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wasting away, waiting for idle cash to find its way back into the stock market. It's the story that has been heard on Wall Street for the last two years. By some estimates, more than $2 trillion is sitting on the sidelines. It's a mountain of unused money that could power the next bull market. But the betting is the cash may not be put to work any time soon because corporate earnings are still not exciting after crashing by 31 percent last year. The economic recovery is not assured because business investment, which slumped and pulled the economy into recession last year, is still flat. Investment in computers and other high-tech stuff drove the 1990s boom. And in order for the economy to get back on its feet, businesses need to start spending again. Indeed, the character of the stock market has changed. What the market needs to get investors back into play is good news every day, which is a pretty tall order. In the meantime, smart money people are patiently waiting on the sidelines, wiser than they were two years ago. There's a reluctance to get back into stocks because of the risk the market could be brought down by an unexpected event such as a major flare-up in the oil-rich Middle East. By some estimates, $5 trillion has gone up in flames since March 2000, a ton of money equal to half of the total U.S. gross domestic product of $10 trillion. So it's easy to understand why investors have developed a "once burned, twice shy" mentality. Black Blade: It does not look to get any better. Investors lost $5 Trillion when the markets imploded. That's $5 TRILLION – gone – "gone to money heaven!" There is no increase in capital expenditures by large corporations. Many retirees will have to learn phrases such as: "would you like fries with that?" and "welcome to WalMart". As always get out of debt, stash enough cash for several months expenses, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a nonperishable food and basic goods storage program. Gandalf the White (06/01/02; 09:07:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 77245) DIRECT email address for LADY Jill jill@usagold.comPlease use this!Thanks<;-) Gandalf the White (06/01/02; 08:59:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 77244) Attention: Sirs Turkey Hunter, slingshot and Kevin$ Please, would the three WINNERS provide their correct mailing addresses VIA an EMAIL message to the "ATTN" of Jill at cpm@usagold.com !!!! This will allow the Golden and Silver Prizes to be "posted" and reach your hands in a timely fashon.Thanks.<;-) slingshot (06/01/02; 08:00:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 77243) What a Nice Surprize. ************************************************ Just coming on line after a couple days in the woods. Did you hear my cheer when I found out I have the Silver?Alright!,Yes. I'm closer to the Gold this time M.K.Congrats to Turkey Hunter for winning the Gold and To Kevin$for winning the other silver.Thank you M.K and all at USAGOLD for having the contest.Thanks to Gandalf the White for his time and effort.We are all winners here at USAGOLD!Slingshot----------------------<>Excuse me, YAAAAAHHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! Canuck (06/01/02; 07:18:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 77242) @ turkey hunter, slingslot, Kevin$ Congrats gentlemenYes the 'lines' were thrown about all week and I find it most amusing that it was dead centre of the 325/328 window, fitting yes?A technician I am not, but I do draw attention again to the Sept. 28, 1999 (NY spot) high of 327 (and change) and the Oct.5, 1999 (London) high of 337 (and change).I do look forward to clearing 338/340, a golden day it will be!!!!!!!!!! Canuck (06/01/02; 07:03:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 77241) Trying to glue some thoughts together................. http://www.zealllc.com/2002/gold101.htm Starting with Hamilton's essay above (thank you Golden Bear), and focusing on his 'gold investment pyramid', it becomes plain, well crystal clear (at least to me) where one wants to be at the end of the day.Physical gold.Arisotle, FOA, TC, Another, yes all the PGA's are correct, I believe one day I will be a 'die-hard', gold-in-hand' all-physical guy. Yes, one day "the piano will fall" and it does appear that day approaches swiftly. When that day arrives, and surely it will, one must ask oneself 'what do I want to be holding?' Yen in mattresses? Baskets of stock certificates, be it BULLION.NYSE or DOT.COM? As I traverse up and down Hamilton's pyramid building wealth(?) I wish, no I want to 'time' the crash and 'soft land in the foundation of physical on the 'day of reckoning.Alarmist? Greedy? Stupid?I don't think so. I just wish to be holding what will be the 'asset of last resort' when that time arrives. What is more fundamentally pure than physical gold. One can even disect that to bullion and coin. 50/50? So why do I play the pyramid game? If I am such a srong believer in physical why own gold stock or for that matter any other stock? Why would I even contemplate silver options?Hmmmm.........?Well quite frankly I don't have enough of the 'metal of kings'. I play the leverage game as far as some stomach will tolerate and lately I am winning, it feels good to have won a bet for a change. Apparently a pair of yahoos with a pick and a pan, speculating for gold and recently IPO'ed I may add, have had a run-up. Great. I threw in my my bits and now I have 5. I now can climb down 'the pyramid' and throw 3 bits of profits into MY metal.Dangerous game, you bet.But how else can I do it? After my dismal fiat-payday, I pay my bills, invest, contemplate a new patio set, hell even a new fishing pole but then alas, the cupboard is bare. No new metal!! Must use leverage, how does 1 get me 10? Then yes, a patio set, a fishing pole and a little gold dust is mine!A dilema no doubt, and to make matters worse I must be at the bottom in a timely fashion.Help!!!!!!! The Invisible Hand (06/01/02; 06:15:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 77240) Castro makes euro legal tender http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/americas/newsid_2020000/2020234.stm The euro becomes legal tender from Saturday in Cuba's biggest tourist beach resort, Varadero. …The BBC's Havana correspondent says the euro will now probably spread into the wider Cuban economy, helped by the black market in hard currency… Belgian (06/01/02; 02:22:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 77239) * INTERVENTION * Ad nauseum, intervention remains on the order of the day as soon as crucial breaking-points, risk to indicate (the wrong) trend ! €/$ crossing 0,93 and POG > 326$.Evidence, again, that we have (!!!) to live, work and love, within a "managed" economical environment. Japanese Giant dollar-holders were forced to intervene firmly for their own sake and to the benefit of an economical falsified world.POG (not *immune* VOG) was/is temporary halted in its temporary (!!!) subordinate role as follower. Those interventions cause many chain reactions (side-effects). Many valuations (stocks/interest rates), remain or increase, in falsified modus. Absolutely nescessary to carry on, economically. In the mean time, "the rot" can proliferate further. So be it.Interventions have the particular characteristic of "stopping" at once and without warning, for God only knows, what reason. Always remember that when the music (intervention) stops...there's only one chair left...a Golden one made out of the Physical and not paper!Thursday and friday, intraday action was the clearest of evidence/example of how a POG run was broken, to see by any observer. Conclusion : a declining dollar exchange rate is "the" drama ! The one and only precursor of dramatic chain effects, increasing as time goes by.Sunny weekend to all. Golden Bear (06/01/02; 02:10:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 77238) Gold Investing 101. http://www.zealllc.com/2002/gold101.htm For all the new posters on the forum who may need some advice...Welcome. YGM (06/01/02; 01:42:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 77237) Power is Where the Gold Is........Tom Rose. http://www.biblicaleconomics.com/articles/article_2001_04_25_4259.html Excerpt:No careful observer of history will even try to deny that Americans have suffered severe losses of liberty during this century. This loss of freedom is often sloughed off as a necessary part of the growth of population and of the growing complexity of our social and economic framework. But this is a sadly deficient analysis. The ownership of and control over real economic resources is the bulwark of a people's economic and political freedom. Citizens who own and control substantial real assets cannot easily be dominated by politicians and bureaucrats, for the control of real wealth provides citizens with economic alternatives which lead to independence rather than dependence on the dictates of others. It is in this light that we should regard the gradual draining of gold and silver from the pockets of citizens and the centralization of gold holdings under the control of political rulers. It is doubtful that Americans will ever again be able to exert effective control over their elected officials unless they demand the return of a gold- and silver-backed currency. The widely dispersed ownership of gold held in private bank vaults and in the homes of millions of citizens is a strong bulwark against the slow and eventual growth of totalitarianism. On the other hand, the centralization of gold holdings at the national level constitutes an invitation to tyranny that few political leaders have the character to resist. Cont'd... YGM (06/01/02; 01:31:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 77236) World Gold Holdings by Country......... http://www.google.ca/search?q=cache:2OJP8aBFbcgC:www.gold.org/finalgold/gold/Gra/Statistics/World%2520Official%2520Gold%2520Holdings%2520march%25202002.pdf+Gold+Holdings+by+Country&hl=en&ie=UTF8 Very Interesting!......Commit this to file and we'll have a look see next year!!!I'll give odds the #'s will have changed upwards.... YGM (06/01/02; 01:25:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 77235) Bank of France View on Gold..... http://www.google.ca/search?q=cache:0QEYGUjttFEC:www.bis.org/review/r000725b.pdf+Gold+Holdings+by+Country&hl=en&ie=UTF8 Very Interesting re Cb's Views on holding Gold and on Lending etc....Worth a read only just don't try to copy it my box froze up comtinually.....YGM. YGM (6/1/02; 00:35:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 77234) Q & A .... From Deputy of Reserve Bank of India on Gold..... http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=6782 RBI Committed To Creating Environment For Productive Use Of Gold’ Of late, gold is once again in the news with its prices turning volatile at the psychological level of $300 per troy oz in the international market and Rs 5,000 per 10 gms in the domestic market. India imports around 800 tonne of gold annually, but there is no formal regulator for its domestic and international trade. The Reserve Bank of India, however, is considered as the deemed regulator for the yellow metal, in so far as it being a part of the country's foreign exchange reserve. Talking to Sharad Mistry of The Financial Express, RBI deputy governor Dr YV Reddy clarified on various related questions. Excerpts. How would you consider gold's share of just six per cent in the country's total reserves of $53 bn? Is this share of gold sufficient or needs to be increased given the relative vulnerability of forex through portfolio investments in the country's forex kitty? The holding of gold or otherwise in forex reserves is country specific. Central banks in Europe have been traditionally holding large quantities of gold as part of their foreign exchange reserves. Consequent to the formation of the European Central Bank (ECB), many of them have resorted to sale of a part of their gold holdings, for a variety of reasons. Some of the Latin American countries also have reduced their gold holdings. Of course, there has been a tendency/policy shift towards unloading gold holdings, in general, though for a variety of reasons. There have also been countries that have acquired gold reserves in recent years. Our gold holdings in absolute terms have been more or less constant but in percentage terms, they have come down as the total reserves have registered an impressive growth in recent times due to spurt in foreign currency reserves. Since every asset is vulnerable to market movements, it is not easy to establish vulnerability of forex and the relationship between vulnerability and gold holdings. What is the ideal size of gold reserves for India -- in actual and in per centage terms to its reserves?There is nothing like an ideal size of gold reserves for any country either in actual terms or in percentage terms to total reserves. How is it that RBI has preferred to remain passive to the ongoing volatility in global bullion market, even when India is the world's largest consumer of the commodity? Also, what role is RBI expected to play in the development of a gold market and the bullion exchange?The Reserve Bank of India's long term focus is on creating an environment conducive for more productive use of gold asset. RBI also closely monitors the global bullion markets. RBI has provided the necessary impetus for gold market reforms in India by helping in evolving what may be termed as the New Gold Policy. As a central bank, RBI's interest in gold is due to the fact that gold has characteristics of currency. Traditionally, RBI has played an active part in evolution of both, gold policy and gold market. What policy changes are likely to be made in the RBI Act to develop efficient gold futures market in the country? Why do the 13 entities (allowed by the RBI to import gold) shy away from conducting forward trades and develop such a market? The RBI Act does not require any amendment for the development of an efficient gold futures market in the country. RBI has no formal compulsion for such a role either. A major change in the development of gold markets in India was the authorisation in July 1997 to commercial banks given by RBI to import gold for sale or loan to jewellers and exporters. Initially, 7 banks were selected for this purpose on the basis of certain specified criteria like minimum capital adequacy, profitability, risk management expertise and previous experience in this area. At present, 13 banks are active in the import of gold and the quantum of gold imported through these banks has been in the range of 500 tonne per year. While RBI enables a favourable environment, it is for the banks to take the concept of inter bank forward trading further. It must be recognised that any market related product (like bullion futures) is assessed based on needs and not by its mere existence. Forward Market Commission (FMC) has to form its views on this feasibility and as reported recently in the press, the Government of India has initiated steps for strengthening the working of the Forward Market Commission. Should not RBI be the regulating body for the proposed bullion exchange, given the sensitivity of the commodity which is both a currency and also a commodity? Any steps currently under way to utilise the futures market facilities of the National Stock Exchange?The basic framework for an exchange exists with 13 banks active in the import of precious metals and five of them having launched the Gold Deposit Scheme. Once the banks start trading among themselves according to the demand-supply dynamics, a formal move towards a Gold Exchange would be appropriate. As regards regulation it may be premature to analyse the issue. When the product develops, the market would certainly put to use all the available state-of-art infrastructure. Your reaction to the failure of the gold deposit scheme launched in 1999 that attracted just 7-8 tn of gold. Any changes likely to make the scheme more attractive? The Government of India announced the Gold Deposit Scheme in 1999 and RBI issued guidelines to the banks intending to launch the Scheme in October 1999. Five banks have launched their schemes under the guidelines and the quantum of gold mobilised so far has been about 7 tonne. The scheme is yet to evoke the expected response. As I mentioned during my speech in Delhi on ‘Evolving Role of Gold - Recent Trends and Future Directions’ last month, a number of reasons can be cited for the low response to the gold deposit scheme, prominent among them being depositors’ losing the making charges spent on jewellery, the low caratage of jewellery, low rate of return on deposits from the depositors’ perspective and the absence of amnesty. It is expected that once the wide cross-section of the public becomes aware of the benefits of the scheme, it would generate sufficient interest. At present, there is no proposal for any change in the scheme before us. In this context, as part of positive approach to consumers, establishment of a Gold Market Development Agency as a voluntary self regulatory organisation could be considered to devise mechanisms by which the efficiency of the market and the integrity of products are ensured and augmented. Would the heavy influence of forces in the parallel economy in the bullion market hamper the overall development of a regular bullion futures market and the proposed futures exchange?The new Gold Policy has considerably liberalised the bullion market. This has significantly reduced illegal transactions and driven profiteers out of illegal transactions mainly by reducing transaction costs and reducing the difference between gold prices in the world and in the Indian market. There is scope for further rationalising gold import policy including removal of individual-based special facilities such as those extended to NRIs, reviewing the policy of import of gold through special licenses and restriction on import of gold as part of personal baggage by returning Indians. As use of official channels increases, the gold market and exchange will automatically evolve. How safe or otherwise is gold when compared to other financial assets for common investor? There are divergent views on the role of gold as a safe financial asset. One of such view is that gold is the only asset totally free of any credit risk and in the long run, it is an effective hedge against inflation. However, recent incidences have shown that the volatility, which is, generally associated with other financial assets is applicable to gold also. Also, the return from investments in gold may be compared with the return on investment in government bonds in the Indian markets. For example, if gold had been purchased at end-February 1996, and sold at end-February 2002, at the prevailing rates in the local bullion market, the average annualised return would work out to be negative. On the contrary, investment in liquid risk-free Government security on the same dates would have fetched a comfortable positive return, and in case capital gains through marked to market is also taken into account, the annualised average return could be as high as 15 per cent. ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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