ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 5/1/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
(05/01/02; 21:46:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 74718)
While they're going up, they're still go down
PREMIS:
A currency gaining strength attracts foreign capital. A weakening currency repels foreign investment.
How many of the market analysis wizards understand that a falling dollar pulls a vacume on every equity listing including the index options, including bonds, including real estate in USA. Hence the beginning of the bull market in commodities of which GOLD is king.
The entire capitalization of all the goldmines in the world is less than the price of McDonalds corp. (50 billion) So when do we see millions of ounces served daily? I try to tell people about gold so they don't get hurt in the next big crash, but they haven't a clue and think you're nuts for speaking of reality.
sourdough
(05/01/02; 21:35:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 74717)
Trizezhahn exchangeable debentures (ABX)30 million shares
http://www.trizechahn.com/trizechahn/ii/download/fbq4_T1.pdf
I found the paper related to exchangeable debentures issued by Trizechahn.
They appear to be exchangeable by the holder at 32 ABX shares per U.S. $1000 on the first 8.9 million shares.
The other debentureS have a rate of 52 ABX shares per U.S. $1000.
They secured a loan by pledging over 30 million shares of Barrick.
It appears they have an option to exchange cash for the shares at the then present rate.
So, somebody has a lean on 30 million Barrick shares.
As Trizechahn reorganizes I naturally wondered if they were having troubles.
When Gold runs,
Will TRIZEC be in a position to hang on the shares?
How much money is likely to be made on those shares?
How much "clout" would a 30 million share holder have/HAD over ABX hedging policy?
Myself, I thought this loan structure could have implications that more than meet the eye.
I would appreciate if someone could take a look at the loan and comment if I have understood correctly.
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")
(05/01/02; 21:10:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 74716)
I won't eat at the following restaurants:
A basic warning about Eco Bay. Watching large block orders coming across all yesterday and today. MM was not refreshing his ask. (means he has like an unlimited amount of float for sale) So it's going the way of Crystalex down for the count. Top execs wanted to raise near $20 million to reduce debt by floating more sheers out. Why can't they just work for a living. Anyway, it's new junk like the old junk. Newmont came in and took Eco's silver mine and did a 100 million debt for sticks swap. Now why would Newmont go for the silver mine when probably it could have gone after any of the other gold mines that Eco had? Must be some important silver in them hills. With US western electricity costs being so high, that is going to factor in to recovery cost of revenue. I'm jest a warning ye of the 10Q and 10K's statements that can be taken either way. Double talk is becoming profound in them. Every minor miner has some fly in the ointment. It's can they flick it out with some operation in a third world area where they can get away with using the giant trucks and super scoops. TVX is going to have a tough time trying to mine the Olympias project with the threat of the town above collapsing into the "project". How many millions did the "godfathers" reep on that one. Turn it into an olive grove. With the hope of a ten for one reverse split, wow, I get less and it's more. No, not for me. Another MM with megafloat to pawn off.
But no flunkie miner review is complete without a mention of Las Christas, the problem child with a multiple split personality. Gold Reserve does have a valid claim to its Brisas consession IF the CVG "feels" good enough about it to not take them into its kangaroo court. Vanessa (not the babe) just the small open door for Placer Dome's "back entrance". CVG was crying when Placer pulled out, Vanessa isn't rich enough to steal from. Anyway, who is going to clean up all the mercury spillage that covers the Cristas toxic waste site? Wildcaters seem to leave a practical joke behind. Then what amazes me when they calculate production costs with 95 cent per pound copper, billions of tons of copper. So do we cover the earth with copper cookware? Extra copper plumbing for the cold water side? The price of copper isn't going to skyrocket with a post 1929 world recession??? Oh, but this is a semi-semi precious metal the copper is, and the world needs more and more now that we are going to fiber optic cables made of glass. Well it's a TKOCF sort of thing and the public just doesn't understand. "Talk like a goldmine, walk in circles like a copper pit". Place-your-dime on the big copper price wheel and that's all Placer Dome is, a multinational copper biz dancing with the goldminers but it can't get in step. Well, when you see the sun come up tomarrow it's really beemin bright. Take refuge Juliete its all going into the bank.
-GR2
Solomon Weaver
(05/01/02; 20:56:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 74715)
Where liquid dollars are flowing in from
http://www.compareinterestrates.com/default.asp
2/3 of all homeowners have gone to the fountain of second mortgages
POS
Black Blade
(05/01/02; 20:17:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 74714)
Argentina Pays Record 95% Rate at Central Bank Debt Auction
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?touch=1&btitle=Top%20News&T=sa_content.ht&s=APM6IBBRAQXJnZW50
Snippit:
Buenos Aires, April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina's central bank paid a record 95 percent interest rate to sell 61 million pesos ($20.7 million) of 15-day bills yesterday to help shore up the currency.
Black Blade: From the frying pan into the fire.
BTW, the USD is weakening further.
Black Blade
(05/01/02; 20:10:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 74713)
States Pressing Analyst Probe
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A11428-2002Apr30.html
Snippit:
State regulators are moving ahead with a coordinated investigation of conflicts of interest among stock analysts on Wall Street, sources said yesterday, to the dismay of the securities industry, which is backing a Securities and Exchange Commission-led probe of the issue. Officials from at least five states -- New Jersey, Connecticut, California, Alabama and Massachusetts -- spent a day last week with representatives of the office of New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer to study his work on Merrill Lynch & Co., the sources said.
Black Blade: First it was the SEC, then New York, and now more states are getting onboard. It looks like a massive deluge of lawsuits, fines and possible prison sentences are in the offing.
Black Blade
(05/01/02; 19:33:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 74712)
Riders On The Storm - Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/series2/riders/complete.htm
Energy Will Be A Permanent Problem
Snippit:
This time around, our energy crisis is not temporary. It will become permanent unless we do something about it. Unless we solve it, our future prosperity and that of the world could become imperiled. We have been fortunate in the U.S. in that our excess demand for energy has been supplied by imports from OPEC and other foreign producers. This has come at the expense of a deteriorating trade deficit. However, a day is coming in the not too distant future when our voracious appetite for energy will compete against the demands from emerging world economies. The desire of growing populations in lesser-developed nations to maintain and increase their standard of living intensifies the demand on the world's mineral resources. The United States, with only 5% of the world's population, uses about a third of the globe's annual energy supplies. As we import more of our energy and raw materials (resources in which we were once self-sufficient), we will increasingly lose control over our future economic destiny. Many in the U.S. just don't get it. The era of cheap and abundant energy is gone.
Energy and minerals are the basis of our modern civilization. Without these resources, nations are doomed to remain at poverty levels. If denied access to supplies, countries will either resign themselves to a position of poverty or as in the case of Japan in 1941, go to war. With no new frontiers to explore, nations will continuously face conflicts and jostle for position for access to the earth's raw materials. Future military conflicts like the Gulf War and the current conflict in the Middle East will be over access to the earth's remaining resources of energy, water, fertile soil and other base minerals. It is for these reasons that we must begin now to solve this crisis. The severity of a recession, or the strength of a recovery, will depend on the job that is done.
Black Blade: Puplava tackles a boatload of information in this Storm Watch update. Not just energy, but debt, corporate spending, etc. In short he presents his case against an economic recovery. As I have been hitting hard on myself for since 1998. This is the culmination of a series of events that are converging to form the "Perfect Storm". Definitely well worth reading – warning – it is long and covers quite a bit of material.
BTW, I see he gives a thumbs up to USAGOLD at the bottom of the page.
Solomon Weaver
(05/01/02; 19:17:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 74711)
Jim Pupluva's Market Update is quite rich today
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Don't miss today's comments....
I also realized in reading them that most of my friends and co-workers would think he's crazy....but just like Black Blade...he nails everything to the wall.
POS
YGM
(05/01/02; 19:04:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 74710)
Barrick, Anglo & Godsell
& the GATA CREW.....
Things in Gold's world are getting more explosive by the week.....Makes you wonder what's next.....Not just interesting times but now "Exciting" as well....
Gold Advocates owe a great deal to Bill, Chris, Reg, & GATA in the mix of all we now see and hear.....
THANKS SEEMS INADEQUATE FOR SO MUCH TIME SPENT, FAMILIES PUT ON HOLD, AND SO MUCH MORE WE'LL NEVER KNOW ABOUT OR HEAR COMPLAINTS OF FROM THESE TIRELESS FEW....
SO "GO GATA" SHAKA ZULU HAD THE BATTLE PLAN FROM DAY ONE!!
Pizz
(05/01/02; 18:59:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 74709)
Belgian
Re: Dollar Sell Off
It appears that Sec. O'Neil did not defend a strong dollar policy at the Senate today. His basic comments were no comment with the reasoning that he would not give speculators ammunition.
My feel is the speculators are getting out.
As far as gold not going up accordingly, same old story -trench warfare and close combat. The shorts have their back upagainst a 310 311 wall with a fair size abyss behind it???
Same with DOW. Feels like foreign money (that's a guess on my part)or big US money may be moving to calmer waters. Pressure on all markets right now.
Pizz
Solomon Weaver
(05/01/02; 18:49:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 74708)
USD Forest for the Trees
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=d12
Hey Black Blade
Yes...looking at the 24 hours scale on NYBOT DXY really does look like going over niagra falls.
To get a little perspective, I walked the plank out each time increment to 1 yr on the chart options and noticed that the chart of the last month, since we broke below the 50 day moving average is a lot like the month of Jul 15-
Aug 15 2001 since we broke the 50 day before.
113 seems to have been an interesting support....and then just as we were heading for new lows...Sept 11 came along and the trend is reversed.
It makes me wonder if another terrorist event happened today if the world would run back into the dollar.
Poor old Solomon
Black Blade
(05/01/02; 18:49:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 74707)
Natural gas futures prices rise as oil prices drop
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=142519
Snippit:
HOUSTON, May 1 -- The June contract for natural gas jumped by 23.4¢ to $3.80/Mcf Tuesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, but other petroleum futures prices were down. The NYMEX June crude oil contract fell 28¢ to $27.29/bbl, while the July position lost 19¢ to $26.93/bbl.
After the close of the NYMEX session, officials of the American Petroleum Institute reported US crude inventories increased by 7.6 million bbl last week to 325.6 million bbl. Distillate stocks also were up by 2.7 million bbl to 121.2 million bbl. However, with the nation poised for the start of the summer driving season, US gasoline stocks dropped 1.6 million bbl to 210.5 million bbl.
Black Blade: Note – even though injection increased last week by 38 bcf, that is slightly more than half of the prior weeks injection. Also, as storage levels are much higher, this has much to do with several new storage facilities in the wake of last years energy crisis. With lower NG exploration and production there has been essentially a transfer NG from existing wells to storage and very little increase in reserves. This is an unsustainable situation that will lead to additional future price spikes when supply is drawn down and few new wells are in production. Currently NG is at $3.70 Mbtu.
Chris Powell
(05/01/02; 18:42:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 74706)
Barrick moving on AngloGold, explaining Anglo's strange talk
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1094
Barrick moves on AngloGold, explaining
AngloGold's talking up the gold price
before it finishes covering its shorts.
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Black Blade
(05/01/02; 18:20:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 74705)
USD Index Chart
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s
Take a look now before the chart switches over the next 24 hours. The huge dive of the USD!
- Black Blade
Black Blade
(05/01/02; 18:17:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 74704)
Probe of analysts reportedly widens
http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/121/business/SEC_seen_asking_10_firms_for_data+.shtml
SEC seen asking 10 firms for data
Snippit:
WASHINGTON - Amid reports that regulators are asking 10 major Wall Street firms for information about their research policies, the head of the Securities and Exchange Commision said yesterday there was enough ''questionable conduct'' by Wall Street analysts to merit an inquiry into whether fraud was committed.
Harvey Pitt, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, spoke in a television interview a few days after the SEC launched an investigation to determine whether analysts rated certain stocks highly just so their firms could obtain lucrative investment-banking business. ''I think that there is evidence of enough questionable conduct that we owe it to the public to satisfy ourselves'' whether there was fraud, Pitt told the CNBC financial television network.
Pitt's comments come as the SEC begins ramping up its inquiry and top Merrill Lynch & Co. executives prepare to meet with New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer this week to present a settlement offer, people with knowledge of the matters told The Wall Street Journal. Spitzer and the SEC are looking into whether investment houses, such as Merrill Lynch, Salomon Smith Barney, and Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, mislead investors with overly optimistic research on companies that also did business with their investment banking documents.
Black Blade: Note that New York has its own investigation underway. The obvious conclusion is that there will be many lawsuits against the Wall Street investment houses. This could become bigger than asbestos and tobacco litigation. This story has a long way to go. Wait until more dirt is dug up as these investigations proceed.
Black Blade
(05/01/02; 18:11:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 74703)
U.S. Banks Curb Corporate Loans in Steepest Decline in 30 Years
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APM9q6xWBVS5TLiBC
Snippit:
New York, May 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. banks have been hitting the brakes on loans to companies harder than at any time in at least three decades, tightening standards and refusing to finance businesses that don't retain them for other services.
Black Blade: This shows how much confidence the banks have in the US "economic recovery". Of course we already know that the economic recession is deepening and certainly corporate earnings have failed to materialize. Without consumer spending and companies burdened under crushing record debt, it is no wonder then that US banks are tightening their standards for loans. So while the bankers Wall Street pimps bark that all is well, just pay attention to what they do. This recession is poised for further decline. There is no fundamental reasoning that suggests otherwise.
Black Blade
(05/01/02; 17:55:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 74702)
US Dollar Diving!
Has anyone been watching the US Dollar Index plunge today? It has fallen sharply below 115. This is definitely going to be positive for Gold.
- Black Blade
Belgian
(05/01/02; 17:44:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 74701)
Gold Wars
Today's strong dollar-decline NOT compensated with POG rise !? Strange !
Who is selling the dollar, with how much power and what target ?
What about the short positions (5.000 >>> 26.000 mt) of the bank-cartel (Deutsche/JPM-C/GS etc) ? Howhowww.
This must be a conflicting situation for at least one side of the equation. A too fast declining dollar not correctly corresponding with expiry dates on the massive derivative short positions on Gold !
Could we see both dollar and Gold declining ? If so, someone will use declining dollar-reserves to buy Gold at spot and provoke POG rise for compensation ? Or am I jumping too fast to conclusions/suppositions and is the today's anomaly due to 1 of may inactivity in Europ ? Thoughts anyone ?
The Invisible Hand
(05/01/02; 16:42:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 74700)
GATA negates property rights
I'm sorry, I'm late, I've been away in the last 24 hours, but
"[GATA] Press release on suit against Kinross by Berger & Montague and Reg Howe"
reads
"Since the 1998 merger pursuant to which Kinross acquired
control of Kinam, as alleged in the complaint, Kinross has
consistently and repeatedly acted to impair the value of
Kinam Preferred Stock in order to facilitate a subsequent
purchase at an unfair price, culminating in the coercive
and illegal Tender Offer of February-March 2002."
I worry:
If the value of the stock has been impaired why did the holders not sell their stock?
What's an unfair price? Earlier the press release said that Kinross violated the "best price rule" promulgated under Section 13(e) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Is the best price the same as a fair price? Or is the best price the price before the action to impair the value of the stock and the fair price then the price resulting from the impairment? Who can determine this? By what standards?
I wonder what gold stands for in GATA's eyes, but for me it doesn't stand for the allegations against Kinross.
And the email to contact Berger & Montague, P.C. is investorprotect@bm.net. How can investors be protected if their property rights, including their right to sell, are not recognized?
Canuck
(05/01/02; 15:53:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 74699)
Big rumour stirring
A note to Canuck friends near Ottawa.
An informed buddy big in the freight/shipping business informed me today that 50 cargo/freight ships have arrived in Montreal.
Rumour is stirring that a major tech firm in Ottawa is pulling the plug and heading back to Europe. I asked him who he had his eyes on.
He said no way to be sure on any of the rumour, too early to be placing bets, but his first guess was Alcatel.
If true, whomever it is, it will murder 'silcon valley north'.
I'll keep my ears open.
Boxman
(05/01/02; 15:49:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 74698)
Aristotle messege #74692
"Gold. Get you some while it's still inconveniently heavy for the price. --- Aristotle"
That has got to be the best line of the year. A real keeper. Thanks for the chuckle.
Rock
(05/01/02; 15:44:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 74697)
The Tale of two investment mindsets
Aristotle
Very well put Aristolle, the moral of the story is when the USD is only worth about 20 cents buying a million dollars worth of gold isn't going to go far. He certainly isn't going to get 12,000 gold Sovereigns with his million like the other guy did. What took you three trips to the truck to get to your vault will only take him one trip with a brown paper bag. LOL that was a good one.
Sir Rock
Solomon Weaver
(05/01/02; 15:13:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 74696)
Nice little story Ari
Very yes to two posts down.
We kings and philosophers of old have the same minds.
POS
Jade
(05/01/02; 15:12:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 74695)
US Dollar Index
This is the time to keep a weary eye on the US Dollar Index. We have a major juncture at this date. The sloping upward support line for the dollar for about the last 10 years was resting on 115 Tuesday [which has not been penetrated]. The sloping upward support line from the year 2000 was resting on 115 on Tuesday [which also has not been penetrated]. The downward trend channel for the last four months has the bottom of that channel resting on 115 [and also has not been penetrated to further downside]. Today at 114.6, we broke through all "three" of these trend lines at this juncture every so slightly. The fact is, we broke through. There is no doubt many FX traders will be looking at the charts tonight [with a weary eye on the USD Index action over the next 48 hours]. No need to tell you what this may do to the price of Spot Gold here.
Usul
(05/01/02; 15:12:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 74694)
Boom-bust fears after biggest monthly rise
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,3604,707925,00.html
"The news that the price of an average home has now topped the £100,000 mark came hours after the Bank of England's deputy governor, David Clementi, said there was no "bubble" in the property market and hinted that interest rates were not about to rise because of house prices...
"The Nationwide said that after adjusting for inflation, average prices were now for the first time higher than they were at the previous peak reached in the summer of 1989 during the final days of the "Lawson boom". In the five years that followed, 400,000 homes were repossessed and one in four property owners fell into negative equity as prices fell steadily."
miner49er
(05/01/02; 14:50:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 74693)
What is the sound of one currency inflating...?
http://app.ny.frb.org/dmm/mkt.cfm
http://www.usagold.com/halloffame.html#anchor213884
btw... fwiw...
The last 5 business days' "temporary" open market operations from the Fed: (the second link is to the HOF posting of the inestimable TownCrier - an excellent lesson on repurchase agreements...)
5-01: $8 billion
4-30: $5 billion
4-29: $7.5 billion
4-26: $6 billion
4-25: $5 billion 28 day RPs + $5.5 billion ovenights
bail out souring bets, stave off crunching credit, and rocket fuel for the market indexes...
Aristotle
(05/01/02; 14:46:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 74692)
A tale of two investment mindsets
If you were a wealthy man and wanted a secure position in, say, a strongbox containing 100 kilograms of Gold Sovereigns, then to accomplish that goal you'd have to pay the market price. It's a simple and obvious concept, and today it would cost you around One Million Dollars. You'd then have clear ownership of a very impressive box of wealth, yours through thick and thin to use as you'd please.
In your mind's eye you envisioned an appropriate quantity of Gold for your personal circumstances of wealth, and so you bought it (that being the standard way of getting things, you know.)
Then one day your close friend says to you, "Hey, I see the Gold market is really heating up these days. You were sure smart to buy Gold like you did back there. Ya know, I've been thinking a lot, too, lately... about putting $1 million into Gold. When do you think I should do it?"
"Well," you reply, "if your goal is to put One Million Dollars into Gold, then the timing really doesn't matter at all. What I mean is, assuming you've got the money, you can do it at any time, so you might as well do it whenever it is most convenient for you."
He looks at you inquisitively, having expected somewhat more sophisticated investment advice about market movements and timing. You take note of his dull expression, so you decide to elaborate.
You continue, "Look, putting One Million Dollars into Gold is very easy. But on that matter, really, who am I to talk -- I've never done it." You smile.
"But I've seen your Gold!" he protests. "I thought-"
"You thought I had put One Million into the Gold. I didn't." You explain, "What I actually did was this: I set out to buy 100 kilograms, I chose Gold Sovereigns, I paid the nice man at Centennial Precious Metals. The bill came to One Million Dollars."
"That's what I've been saying," says your friend. "You put $1 million into Gold..."
"No," you interject. "You're not listening to what I'm saying. Here it is again. For my financial security I had an interest to buy over twelve thousand Sovereigns. That's what I did. It happened to cost $1 million. You, on the other hand, simply want to put One Million of your Dollars into Gold. You can do that at ANY time, now or in the future. So what I'm saying to you is to do it whenever it happens to be convenient for you to do it."
"Huh?" shrugs your friend.
"Look," you say, "carrying about 50 pounds at a time, it took me four trips back and forth to the truck to carry in all my Gold to my vault. Oh, my back! But that was then, and this is now. As you've already noticed and pointed out, the Gold Market is indeed heating up. I'm guessing that if your willing to wait a while to convert your target of One Million Dollars into Gold, you might be able to carry your Gold home easily in a small thin paper bag, with room to spare for an sandwich and an apple for lunch along the way. Quite convenient, indeed!"
Gold. Get you some while it's still inconveniently heavy for the price. --- Aristotle
Black Blade
(05/01/02; 14:38:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 74691)
Gold bulls see further big gains
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7BD6BC620A%2DCA6A%2D4175%2DBC81%2D23AE056494B1%7D
Questions arise about hedging at Barrick Gold
Snippit:
Barrick failed to meet Wall Street earnings expectations Wednesday. In their conference call, Barrick executives fielded numerous analysts' questions about the company's hedged sales of gold, a strategy seen by some as risky if bullion prices rise sharply. Those questions, from JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and others, were met by Barrick executives who assured investors they were monitoring the situation.
Barrick said that for the remainder of this year it will sell half its gold production in the so-called "spot-deferred market" and half in the spot market. The company said its delivery of the metal for hedged sales fell a net 200,000 ounces. Investors increasingly are demanding that gold companies sell their ounces in the spot market, thus reducing any global selling pressure of the metal and eliminating complex accounting practices linked to hedged sales.
Barrick and others use "written calls," options contracts, and other derivative devices to hedge against possible falls in gold's price. Douglas Pollitt of Pollitt & Co. in Toronto says Barrick's confusing account statements may make investors nervous. "The real story here is how they are turning their written calls into Variable Price Contracts, which no one really understands," Pollitt said after the Barrick conference call. "Why not seek absolute transparency?"
Black Blade: It appears that the Barrick conference call did not go over very well. The practice of shorting Gold by a Gold miner has raised a lot of concern lately in the investment community and for good reason. Mega-Hedger AngloGold has been unwinding their hedge book since they lost out on the Newmont-Franco bidding war for Aussie miner Normandy. The day of the hedger is over. Forward sales make no sense in a rising Gold price environment.
Gandalf the White
(05/01/02; 14:22:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 74690)
YES, CB2 -- It's NOW Gold Wars !!!
CoBra(too) (05/01/02; 13:58:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 74688)
After Cold Wars - It's Gold Wars
----
Sorry, no time to chat, just like Mr. G., --- only had time to screen the Forum -- The Paper Gold guys had control of the COMEX after "Noon NY" today --- BUT things are HEATING UP and SPIKE is getting rested for the BIG JUMP !!
Like Aragorn III spoke about, "THUNDER IN THE NIGHT" !!!
Is everyone ready ?
Off to see what the Nazguls are about (Swing Shift).
<;-)
Black Blade
(05/01/02; 14:13:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 74689)
Re: Pizz and sourdough – ABX Earnings?
It is very difficult to find "net earnings" in Barrick's financial statements. I have tried in the past by digging into their 10-Q's. They tend to report "operating earnings" which is essentially the same as Pro Forma earnings. These are earnings "before all the bad stuff" – like maintenance costs, certain capital costs, etc. That is why it is so difficult to get a handle on the true earnings. Even with this favorable treatment on the earnings statement, they were unable to meet lowered earnings estimates although the POG has been rising. I noticed that Placer Dome (and others) has done the same kind of phoney accounting in the past but I am not aware of how they are reporting lately. Simply put – this kind of accounting is deceptive when investors really want to see the actual bottom line.
Cheers!
- Black Blade
CoBra(too)
(05/01/02; 13:58:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 74688)
After Cold Wars - It's Gold Wars
Or is it just that we'll all go to Mars or the Stars as old Frankie Boy sung of Grace Kelly - the latter, though still late Duchess of Grimaldi of Monaco.
- Anyway- all seems possible as at the blink of (who's, BTW) eye, the SM's turn around and list their first meaningful adavance in a while. After all its the first of May - a typical socialistic/communistic labor day - and that's where probably all the jobs are to be found - anyway ... far away from the western ex- capitalistic, free-market- trade and globalistic post industrial societies - who in hell would need them please? ... as we thrive on services of the financial gender, mostly - remember GE and its costly de-(activating)productivity ...
Ge...eh, with glee I'm watching the footsteps of GI-ants waging a global s'WAT to the detriment of liberty, truth and decency ... So WAT - a global threat to whom, by whom and for/or against whom? ... Do you know? No, and so I can only speculate against all and in particular "humanity" - and I hope to be wrong! too ... cb2
miner49er
(05/01/02; 13:55:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 74687)
Econoclast @74671 - the Big One...
My grip is surely slipping, I think I've lost my hold... yes I think I've lost my hold,
I cannot get insurance anymore... they don't take credit on the gold...
Peter Gabriel - Blood of Eden (I know he wasn't thinking about this kind of stuff, but weirdly enough, it sure fits...)
Your mention of derivatives going kabloom... Was just thinking about that myself, earlier. The expected prescription is, of course, to raise rates. Yet as you correctly point out, the derivative books are all crying for mercy, "just a little bit lower, just a little bit longer..." And as long as the spin can convince enough people that inflation is being contained, and that things are gonna turn around any day now, the Fed can play this put-it-off-'til-tomorrow game.
Yet, not only of course, are there derivatives issues, but as we've discussed here ad nauseum, there is the issue of looming and very bad debt, en masse, whose repercussions throughout the system leave the U.S. most likely to just make the books balance, and print whatever is necessary to do that. This, opposed to the classical prescription of permitting contractionary forces to do their cleanup work (of which higher rates are typically a major component).
Those who frequent here have a pretty good handle of what the arguments are surrounding why the classical methods won't work this time, whether they agree or not. But the general public, and the officials they elect, essentially have only this level of understanding, and usually an inaccurate and superficial appreciation of the dynamics at play, to begin with.
As such, once inflation begins to be truly felt, and persistent, the pressure will be on for the Fed to explain why it is not raising rates. It finds itself in the economist's endless dilemma of trying to "'splain it." Never mind any potential illicit behavior, the task of making people, on a large scale, understand the sordid maze of dynamics involved in few words, is next to impossible.
The dilemma is this: With a "hard" science, like physics, or neurology, people are willing to give the benefit of the doubt to the experts, because they accept their own ignorance in the field, appreciating the complexity of the discipline. With the "soft" science of economics (like religion, philosophy and sports), everybody thinks they know it all, just because they read a "how the economy works" sidebar in USA Today once.
As long as confidence in the priests of this bestial religion is sustained, Fed heads, and other members of the mumbling class, can say pretty much whatever, and people just nod their tacit approval, letting others do the job of interpreting the entrails.
When things go south, people want clear, concise, sound-bite answers. And they want them now. This requires a communication's savvy that scarcely anyone (self-included) has harnessed. Unless they can rouse the public to their side with authoritative one-liners like, "Render unto Caesar...," (probably bad example...), or the like, they will lose them. And since they really cannot explain themselves in 6 words, they will have to fend off tremendous pressure to cater to the demands of the public, and Congress. Opposition economists will all have their Warholian quarter hour. They will appear sober, and even-handed -- all convincingly touting the wrong measures. People will listen, and soon will be discussing financial / economic esoterica with grand sophomoric confidence, using buzz-words that were entirely absent from their vocabulary two weeks prior. Then other crisis will break out, and Congress will be pressured to "do something." (Anything.) And they will.
It may be here at this juncture, that the global linkage of derivatives will bring together Japan, the Argentinas of the world, the Mid-East, and all the other cracks and fissures into one critical fault line. Our currency has become effectively good at little more than providing instantaneous depth and liquidity for risk mitigation tools and speculation. For this reason, the Federal Reserve may well be entirely incapable of raising rates ever again. (I tend to lean in this direction, myself.) The breaking point might be that day when: 1) either the Fed perhaps should blink and raises rates -- to its peril; or 2) the day the dollar-holding public (foreign and domestic) loses confidence in why the Fed does not. This will be because the public's understanding demands for rates to rise under these conditions, and they will no longer buy the reasons the Fed is giving for not raising them. Could this cause the great flood-gate busting exodus? It is perhaps already happening, somewhat quietly and orderly, as we speak.
The third, and least probable scenario, would be for all the world's dollar holders to simply acquiesce in the status quo, and just let the Fed keep printing dollars into oblivion. Here, theoretically, dollar recycling into financial-instrument blackholes would allow the perpetuation of the system, as dollars are kept out of pricing goods and services. This is what the Fed is likely going to do (to prevent derivative's whoopsies, and keep the dreaded deflation at bay), but the dollar holders will surely begin dumping them by the shovel-full at some point, and this will bid up the real world costs of things we make and do. This point will most probably be the day that the stuff we really, really need (oil) starts to become prohibitively expensive.
That day indeed may not be brought on by Mid-East producers suddenly demanding higher prices out of the blue, and without clear and compelling cause to the public. It may well follow the very template I've outlined above. Just look at the dilemma of oil companies right now, as they are on the grill. None of them are even trying to explain the currency issues, and macro-economic reasons behind oil prices rising. All the conversation is orbiting a very small micro-economic universe. This is all the public is focusing on (just listen to the talk shows). The micro issues themselves are difficult enough for people to get their arms around, since most don't spend any time delving into them normally (why should they?). Yet, suddenly water-cooler expertise now includes gasoline refining processes, and oil grade differentiation among its repertory. Brought to critical mass, this semi-informed pressure will inevitably force itself in the wrong direction, and to the wrong conclusions. The current mood is for the Government to fix everything. Perhaps under the banner of the "national security," things like the current Big Oil inquisition will find the industry again reeling under the burden of ever more heavy-handed, clumsy Big Government regulation. Price caps, the ever-popular "windfall profits" extortions, and legions of newly-hired government "regulators" poking into every nook and sphincter they can find. All this to the delight of the public, and oil-hating politicians... This of course is just shooting ourselves in both feet. The subsequent additional trauma to our economy could bring about such justifiable and obvious reasons for discrediting our dollar, that we may no longer be capable of crying foul about oil producing nations wanting more dollars for their product.
This is the way the world ends, not with a bang, but a FOX News opinion poll...
Many people who follow this stuff are all looking for what the last straw will be. Perhaps this be it? And driven not by back-room machinations, or even the indiscreet emissions of someone's hedge book, but by the brazen demands of the general public at large, unwittingly asking for its legs to be lopped off at the knees. How sad, yet (at least in my mind) how very, very plausible...
All the best, (what is it now? 87 days and counting to privately obtain the precious yellow...?)
miner
btw... Mr. Gresham @ 74670 - You, good Sir, are truly an asset and a blessing to this forum... Thank you for your feedback and comments to so many different posters. It is something we all deal with, wondering whether anybody "really reads this stuff..." What takes 2 minutes to glance through may have taken someone 5 hours of precious time from "real life" to compose... Notwithstanding the cathartic benefits of having somewhere to communicate, what no one around us in real life cares about, it is so very beneficial to have feedback. Hopefully it is positive, but even sincere requests for clarification, or cool-headed, friendly argument are sought by most. So again, thank you...
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(05/01/02; 12:28:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 74686)
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Gold Market Brief (5/1/02) . . . Gold inched forward in New York this morning after a relatively quiet night overseas. There are reports of renewed physical buying in Japan and bank covering in Europe -- and this is kind of steady supplort that some analysts claim has put a floor under the gold market. Gold has eased back a little in recent days in concert with reduced tensions in the Middle East, but the pullback has been less than what the bears had anticipated. "Gold still looks like it's breaking out of formation and still showing surprising strength," Alaron's Phil Flynn told CBS Marketwatch. "People are going to more traditional investments on concern in the stock markets." The safe-haven metal has enjoyed something of a resurgence over the past several weeks in response to tensions in the Middle East, strong Japanese buying, bullion bank and mine company covering, and a general sense that world equities markets still have their worst days ahead (the DJIA is down 95 as we go to fetch this over to the server). The dollar, which had experienced a selloff last week, seems to have stabilized for the moment but doubts have begun to surface about the long term despite repeated comments from the U.S. Treasury Department that the strong dollar policy is still in force. The markets do not appear to be convinced. Reuters reports that "the dollar appeared to have stemmed its fall by Wednesday, but hard-hitting liquidation in gold was unlikely." Reuters quoted one trader as saying "Most people are long in gold but they're long at lower levels, so there is no panic around in either gold or silver. People are just sitting there quietly happy." So to all the happy gold owners, I bid you good day. See you back here Friday.. . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . .MORE (See above for access to the full Briefing)
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